Sports Picks & Predictions

15* Xavier/Villanova Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on Xavier +4.5

The Xavier Musketeers just don't get the respect they deserve.  This team is arguably the best in the entire country, yet they don't get a lot of national attention.  They are out to prove that their run to the Elite 8 last year was no fluke like many believed it was.  So far, so good as far as proving it.

The Musketeers have gone 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS in their 12 games this season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS run over their last eight games.  They've gone on the road and beaten Michigan (by 16) and Wake Forest (by 8).  They've also crushed Alabama (by 19), USC (by 10) and Dayton (by 29) on a neutral court.  And they've beaten Cincinnati (by 10) at home.  Those results show that they are the real deal.

Villanova is solid again this year at 10-2.  But it has lost to the two best teams it played, and it was thoroughly outplayed in both contests.  The Wildcats lost to Oklahoma (by 23) on a neutral court and to Virginia (by 11) on the road.  They really don't have a quality win yet as their best victories came over Georgia Tech and Stanford on a neutral court.

Xavier wants revenge on Villanova after losing all three meetings with the Wildcats last year, and five straight in this series overall.  I believe they will be playing with extra motivation because of it.  The Musketeers will also be the fresher team.  They last played on December 22 against Wake Forest.  Meanwhile, the Wildcats last played on December 28 against Pennsylvania, having just two days to prepare for the Musketeers.  That's a huge scheduling advantage for Xavier here.

The Musketeers are 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Xavier is 11-1 ATS vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last three seasons.  Again, the Musketeers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They should not be underdogs here.  Bet Xavier Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +10

The Philadelphia 76ers have been much more competitive here of late, and I look for that to continue as they give the Sacramento Kings a run for their money tonight and stay within single-digits.

The 76ers have covered their last two against the spread.  They won outright at Phoenix 111-104 as 11.5-point underdogs, and then came back with a 91-95 loss at Utah as 8-point dogs.  The 76ers are finally getting healthy as Jahlil Okafor is expected to play tonight.  They don't have anyone else listed on the injury report aside from Joel Embid, who is out for the season with a foot injury.

The Kings shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone.  They have lost three of their last four with their only win coming by two points.  They could be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight as he faced a possible suspension.  That would only be an added bonus.  They are already without Willie Cauley-Stein and could be without Kosta Koufos as well.

The 76ers played the Kings very tough last year, winning 114-107 at home as 4.5-point dogs, and only losing 106-107 on the road as 8.5-point dogs. Philadelphia is now 13-3 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Sacramento, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road meetings.

Sacramento is 12-23 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The 76ers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Kings are 11-29-2 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2

I'll gladly fade the Utah Jazz, who are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now.  They are without two starters in Alec Burks and Rudy Gobert.  They could also be without a 3rd starter tonight in Derrick Favors, who missed their lackluster 95-91 home win over the 76ers last time out.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for a win tonight after losing four straight coming in.  But those four losses came to the Celtics, Pacers and Spurs (twice), and they even hung with the Spurs in a 95-101 road loss as 13.5-point dogs last time out.  Look for the Timberwolves to get back in the win column tonight now that they take a step down in competition.

The Jazz are 5-9 on the road this season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers given the state of their team health-wise.  The Timberwolves are basically at full strength heading into this one, which will be a huge advantage.  They should dominate in the paint with Gobert and possibly Favors out for the Jazz.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +20.5

The Bradley Braves are way undervalued here as 20.5-point road underdogs to the Northern Iowa Panthers in their Missouri Valley opener.  I'll gladly grab all the points I can get with the Braves here as there's little chance they lose by 21-plus points.

Bradley is just 2-11 this season while playing a brutal schedule that has featured games against Arizona, Virginia, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, UT-Arlington, Boise State and TCU.  Yet, the Braves have only lost by more than 20 points four times this season.

The Panthers are probably still feeling the after-effects of a 3-game trip to Hawaii over Christmas and cannot be fully prepared for this game.  They played three games against Hawaii, Washington State and BYU and lost two of the three with their only win coming by 4 points.  UNI only has two wins by more than 20 points this season.  Roll with Bradley Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Iowa Big Ten Opener on Iowa -3

The oddsmakers know something here by having the Iowa Hawkeyes favored over the No. 1 team in the country in the Michigan State Spartans.  They expect the Hawkeyes to win, and are trying to get some money on the Spartans by making the Hawks favored.  That shouldn't be a problem considering the betting public loves ranked teams.

Indeed, roughly 67% of the bets as of this writing are coming in on Michigan State, yet the line has moved from Iowa -2 to Iowa -3.  So this reverse line movement shows us that the big money is on the Hawkeyes, and I totally agree that it should be given the situation.

Michigan State is playing without its best player in Denzel Valentine.  The Spartans secured their best start (13-0) in franchise history last time out, but it wasn't easy without him.  They needed overtime to escape with a 99-93 win over Oakland, and a 7-for-9 from 3-point range shooting effort out of Bryn Forbes.  They aren't going to get that again from him.

Iowa has really impressed me this season.  It blew out both Marquette (89-61) and Wichita State (84-61) on the road, while also beating a very good Florida State (78-75) team at home.  Its three losses have all come by 6 points or less on the road to Dayton (77-82), Notre Dame (62-68) and Iowa State (82-83).  It should have beaten Iowa State as it blew a 20-point lead in that game on the road at Hilton Coliseum, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  The Cyclones are currently the #11 ranked team in the land.

The Hawkeyes will be extremely motivated to end a 9-game losing streak to the Spartans.  They blew an 11-point halftime lead at home to Michigan State last year, and these players have not forgotten.  Look for them to be playing with some extra motivation here as a result, and for the home crowd to be a big influence as the No. 1 team in the country visits Iowa City tonight.

Tom Izzo is just 10-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less as the coach of Michigan State.  Fran McCaffery is 36-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  Roll with Iowa Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight.  We'll gladly take advantage and back the Bulls as they pretty much just have to win this game to cover the spread.

The Bulls are a solid 11-5 at home this season.  But they come in undervalued due to having lost four of their last five games, including two by exactly 3 points.  But they did beat the Thunder 105-96 on the road on Christmas Day to show their potential, and I believe they'll live up to their potential tonight as they'll be motivated to turn this recent poor run around.

What you have to like about this game is that Chicago has owned Toronto.  The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors.  The last two have resulted in double-digit wins in favor of the Bulls with a 13-point road win and a 16-point home win.

Toronto is 5-17 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont +3.5

This one is pretty simple folks.  The Belmont Bruins are going to be out for revenge after losing 57-61 at Valparaiso on December 3 earlier this month.  After that 4-point road loss, I like them to win this rematch outright at home this time around because they'll be the more motivated team.

Belmont has played a brutal schedule this year, which is why it is only 7-6 and better than its record would indicate.  The Bruins' six losses have come against ASU (by 9), Evansville (by 5), BYU, Valpo (by 4), Middle Tennessee and Cleveland State (by 2).  All six of those losses came on the road.

The Bruins are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game.  Valpo is 4-2 on the road with narrow wins over Rhode Island (by 3), Oregon State (by 6) and Indiana State (by 6).  It has also lost at Oregon and at Ball State in two of its other three road games, and its only road blowout came at Chicago State.

Plays on a home team (BELMONT) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, with four starters returning from last season are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS since 1997.  The Bruins will have their revenge tonight.  Roll with Belmont Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have started to turn their season around now that they are finally healthy.  They have won three of their last four games overall with home wins over the Blazers (by 26) and Rockets, as well as a road win at Denver.

The only loss by the Pelicans during this 4-game stretch came at Miami by a final of 88-94 in overtime.  So, they have either won or forced overtime in each of their last four games.  I think we're getting some good value with them at +4.5 here against Eastern Conference foe, Orlando.

The Magic come into this game overvalued due to sinning five of their last seven games overall.  But their two losses came against the two best teams they played in Atlanta and Miami, both at home.  Their five wins came against the Nets, Hornets, Blazers, Knicks and Rockets.

Orlando is 9-20 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 road games after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points.  The Pelicans are 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to Orlando.  The underdog is 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -2

The Atlanta Hawks come into this game way overvalued because they have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But those six wins came against the 76ers, Celtics, Magic, Blazers, Pistons and Knicks.  Now they take a step up in competition tonight.

At the same time, the Pacers come in undervalued due to going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost on the road to Memphis and San Antonio, while also falling at home to Sacramento by 2.  They bounced back with a 102-88 win at Minnesota on Saturday, though.

The Pacers are 10-4 at home this season.  They are outscoring teams by 6.6 points per game at home this year.  The Hawks are 8-6 on the road, but they're getting outscored by 0.7 points per game away from home.

Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after having lost 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Pacers are 10-1 ATS against teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Roll with the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

Both the Rockets and Pelicans played on Christmas Day.  The difference is that the Pelicans have had more time to recover since they played the 12:00 EST game, while the Rockets played the second-to-last game last night.  The Pelicans will be the more rested team as a result.

I also believe the Pelicans will be the more motivated team.  They let one get away from them yesterday, losing in overtime to the Heat.  The Rockets are in a massive letdown spot here after beating the Spurs at home.  The Pelicans will want this one more because they are the ones coming off a loss.

The Pelicans haave played the Rockets tough in recent meetings in winning three of the last six.  All three of their losses came by 7 points or less with two of them coming on the road.  The Pelicans lost 101-108 at Houston in their first meeting this season in early December, so they'll be out for revenge as well.

The Pelicans are 6-6 at home this year while the Rockets are just 6-8 on the road.  Houston is 4-12 ATS off a home game this season.  New Orleans is 25-14 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

25* NBA Pre-New Year's GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +7

The Cleveland Cavaliers want serious revenge on the Golden State Warriors.  They led the NBA Finals 2-1 last year, only to lose three straight and to fall short of a championship.  The only difference this time around is that the Cavaliers are healthy, which is a huge difference.

Back in 2011, Lebron James and the Miami Heat played the Dallas Mavericks on Christmas.  Coming off a Finals loss to Dirk Nowitzki & Co. Miami routed Dallas, leading by 32 points after three quarters.  I fully expect the Cavaliers to want this game more and to likely come away with an outright victory.

The Cavs come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won six straight games with three coming by double-digits, including both of their road wins over Boston (89-77) and Orlando (111-76) during this stretch.  Kyrie Irving returned to the lineup two games ago and should be up to game speed now in time for face the Warriors.

Remember, the Cavs didn't have Irving or Kevin Love against the Warriors in the NBA Finals, which are two of their three best players.  While James and company are downplaying the significance of this game to the media coming in, there's no question that deep down inside they want to kill the Warriors.  That will show on the court Friday.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* Pelicans/Heat XMas Day Early ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +6

I've backed the Pelicans with success in each of their last two games and I'll continue riding them on Christmas Day as 6-point underdogs to the Miami Heat.  Head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their lack of effort three games ago in a loss to the Suns, and they've responded very well.

Indeed, the Pelicans went on the road in their first game after the loss to the Suns and beat the Nuggets 130-125 as 1-point underdogs.  In their second game since Gentry called out his players, the Pelicans rolled to a 115-89 home win over the Blazers as 7.5-point favorites.  Now I fully expect them to win this game outright against the Heat.

The Pelicans have had the Heat's number in recent meetings.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with home wins by 10 and 2 points, and a blowout 14-point road win.  I believe Anthony Davis' domination of Hassan Whiteside inside will be the difference in this game.  Davis is a tough matchup for Whiteside because he can hit 3-pointers, so Whiteside is forced away from the rim, making it much easier for other players to get uncontested layups.

The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams with winning records.  The Heat are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.  The Pelicans are 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall.  Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

5* Oklahoma/Hawaii ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma -6.5

This is a very generous price to get one of the best teams in the country tonight in the Oklahoma Sooners.  This team legitimately has a chance to win the Big 12 this season with four returning starters from last year.  Lon Kruger is on record as saying this is the hardest-working team he's ever coached.

The Sooners haven't disappointed in the early going.  They're off to a 9-0 start while winning their last eight games by an average of 26.1 points, including a 78-55 victory over then-No. 9 Villanova in Hawaii on December 7.  The Sooners opened their second trip to Honolulu with Tuesday's easy 88-60 victory over Washington State in the first round of the eight-team tournament.

That blowout victory allowed the Sooners to rest their starters down the stretch, so they'll be fresh tonight.  Buddy Hield had two straight 30-point performances before scoring an efficient 25 points in just 26 minutes yesterday.  They played the early game in Honolulu last night, while Hawaii played the late game that didn't tip until 12 AM EST.  Now the Rainbow Warriors will have to get ready for a 9 PM EST tip tonight.

Oklahoma is scoring 87.8 points against teams that give up 72.7, and it is giving up 63.9 points against teams that average 75.1.  That is roughly a plus-26 mark based off what its opponents average.  Hawaii puts up 80.2 points against teams that allow 75.9, and it allows 67.4 against teams that average 72.8.  That's a plus-10 mark for the Warriors.

That means Oklahoma should be favored by 16 points on a neutral court over Hawaii, and roughly 12 points in a true road game.  But the Sooners have played a lot tougher schedule, so their plus-26 mark is much more impressive than Hawaii's plus-10 mark.  This line should be in the 12-to-15-point range instead of 7.5.

The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Warriors are getting too much respect for their win over Northern Iowa last night.  That was a UNI team that wasn't used to playing that late at night, and also one that was in a huge letdown spot off its win over Iowa State just three days earlier.  Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8

I was on the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game, a 130-125 win at Denver as 1-point underdogs.  I stated that head coach Alvin Gentry had called out his players for their lack of effort following a loss to the Suns, and that they'd come back with a great effort against the Nuggets.

That proved to be the case as Anthony Davis led the way with 27 points, including 19 in the first quarter, despite playing through an illness that required four IV treatments prior to the game.  It was a gutsy performance from him, and I believe the Pelicans will rally around him now and come back with another great effort against the Blazers tonight.

Portland has lost its first four games on this 5-game road trip.  It is getting outscored by 10.0 points per game while giving up 107.5 points on 49.8 percent shooting defensively.  Now the Blazers are expected to be without their two best players in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  They stand no chance of keeping this game close considering that duo is responsible for 42.6 percent of Portland's scoring this season.

The Pelicans want revenge from two losses at Portland already this season, including a 101-105 loss on December 14 just nine days ago.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five of the last six meetings, and 12 of the last 14 meetings overall.

Portland is 1-10 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 11-25 ATS off a road loss over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* Kansas/SDSU Late-Night BAILOUT on Kansas -6.5

Northing is certainly except death, taxes and Kansas winning the Big 12.  The Jayhawks are once again the best team in arguably the best conference in the country.  This team is a little different in that it finally has some experience with four returning starters from last year.  The Jayhawks are on a mission to finish the deal this year.

They are off to a 9-1 start with their only loss coming to top-ranked Michigan State by a final of 73-79 on a neutral court.  They led that game the whole way, too, but allowed the Spartans to come back.  They rest of their games haven't even been close as all nine of their wins have come by 6 points or more.   They are outscoring teams by 23.7 points per game on the season.

The Jayhawks score 89.8 points against teams that allow 73.1, and they allow 66.1 against teams that score 73.4.  That's roughly a plus-24 mark based off of what their opponents average.  San Diego State is scoring 65.7 points per game against teams that allow 69.3, and allowing 59.3 against teams that score 70.2.  That's a plus-7 mark.  Kansas has played a tougher schedule, so it should be at least a 17-point favorite against SDSU on a neutral court.  Factor in the home floor for the Aztecs, and the Jayhawks should be a 13 to 14-point favorite here.

There are several performances by the Aztecs this year that lead me to believe that they can't hang with the Jayhawks.  They lost at home to Arkansas-Little Rock (by 6) as 16.5-point favorites and at home to Grand Canyon (by 7).  There wasn't even a line on that Grand Canyon game as they were expected to blow them out.  They also lost to West Virginia (by 22) on a neutral court.  This is a team that has already lost five games and isn't as good as in year's past under head coach Steve Fisher.

Two seasons ago, SDSU pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season with a 61-57 win at Kansas as 10.5-point underdogs.  This veteran Jayhawks team that returned four starters this year remembers that loss, and it will certainly want to exact some revenge this year.
 
San Diego is 0-12 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  For whatever reason, Fisher hasn't been able to get his team to respond very well with good rest coming into games.  Take Kansas Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Xavier -7

The Xavier Musketeers have been the most underrated team in the country this season.  They made the Elite 8 last year, but everyone felt like they got lucky.  The Musketeers have been making a point to prove that it was no fluke and that they are a legitimate Final Four contender this year.

Indeed, they are off to an 11-0 start this season and have left almost everyone in the dust.  They are outscoring teams by 18.8 points per game.  They are scoring 81.7 points per game against teams that allow 68.9, and giving up 62.9 points per game against teams that score 73.4.  That's essentially a plus-24 mark based off of what their opponents average.

Let's highlight some of their wins just to show how good they really are.  They won by 16 in a true road game at Michigan, by 19 on a neutral court over Alabama, by 10 on a neutral court over USC, by 29 on the neutral court against Dayton, and by 10 at home against Cincinnati.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are off to an 8-2 start this season, but they are only outscoring teams by 0.9 points per game.  They score 79.7 points per game against teams that allow 72.1, but they give up 78.8 points per game against teams that score 77.8.  That's only a plus-7 mark based off of what their opponents average.

Both teams have played equal schedules, so the Musketeers' plus-24 mark over the Demon Deacons' plus-7 mark means the Musketeers should be favored by 17 on a neutral court.  That also means they should be favored by 13-14 at Wake Forest, yet this line is only -7.

The Demon Deacons have been beaten badly at home against Richmond (by 9) and on a neutral court against Vanderbilt (by 22).  They also have narrow home wins this season over MD-Balt County (by 5), Arkansas (by 3), UNC-Greensboro (by 10) and Coastal Carolina (by 6).  Those performances don't lead me to believe that they can even keep this game close against arguably the best team in the country in Xavier.

Xavier is 8-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Musketeers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Wake Forest is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Musketeers.  Bet Xavier Tuesday.

15* Iowa State/Cincinnati ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State +4.5

The 11th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones needed a wake-up call.  They started the season 9-0 but gave lackluster efforts in the first 30 minutes of most of their games before turning it on in the final 10.  That was evident in an 83-82 win over Iowa in which they trailed by 20 points in the second half.

In their last game, the Cyclones trailed most the way against Northern Iowa and again made a comeback.  But it fell just short as they lost 79-81.  Now, everything went right for Northern Iowa as it shot 58% from the floor, including an unlikely 13-of-22 (59.1%) from 3-point range.  That's what it took to beat a team as good as the Cyclones.

But after getting that wake-up call, I expect to see the best effort of the season from the Cyclones tonight against the Cincinnati Bearcats.  They have shown what they're capable of when they have their foot on the gas in the final 10 minutes of games, and now I expect to see that effort over a full 40 minutes now that they finally lost a game.

Cincinnati has lost to the two best teams it has played in Xavier (lost by 10) and Butler.  It doesn't really have many good wins as its best victories have come against Nebraska (by 4), George Washington (by 5) and VCU (by 6).  While I expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, the +4.5 could certainly come into play if it's close late.

Cincinnati is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Cyclones are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games.  The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Iowa State Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4

The Utah Jazz are way undervalued right now because of their recent results.  They have lost four of their last five games, but two of those came to Oklahoma City and another to San Antonio.  They lost to OKC by 4 and 6 points with one going into OT.  They did get back on track Friday with a 97-88 home win over the Nuggets, though.

Now the Jazz have had two days off since that game and will be well-rested and ready to go.  The same cannot be said for the Phoenix Suns, who lost 95-101 at home to the Milwaukee Bucks Sunday.  Now the Suns will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They won't be able to match the Jazz's energy or intensity level in this one as a result.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The Jazz have won their last two home meetings with the Suns by 27 and 25 points.  They've won five of their last six home meetings with the Suns.  Phoenix has dropped 10 of 14 road games this season and 25 of 33 dating back to January.

The Jazz are 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Utah is 33-16 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Jazz Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season under legendary head coach Kelvin Sampson.  They returned four starters this year and were going to be better, but not many saw this 8-1 start coming.  They continue to be undervalued here as only 2-point favorites over Grand Canyon in this Global Sports Classic in Las Vegas.

The Cougars have been rolling this season, averaging 85.6 points and 49.4% shooting offensively, while giving up 69.2 points and 43.1% shooting defensively.  They are outscoring foes by 16.4 points per game.  Their only loss came on the road at Rhode Island, and they've beaten the likes of LSU and Murray State.

Grand Canyon has certainly played well under head coach Dan Majerle.  It is 9-2 on the season, but that has come against a very easy schedule.  This is a team that lost 63-111 to Louisville.  But Grand Canyon comes in overvalued off a huge upset win at San Diego State on Friday, which sets it up for a letdown spot here.

The Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.  The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Antelopes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Houston Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

After going 45-37 last year, the New Orleans Pelicans had high hopes of being among the Western Conference's best teams this season.  Instead, injuries derailed them early, and despite the fact that they are now healthy, they continue to be inconsistent.  They are just 7-19 this year.

Things came to a boiling point in their loss to Phoenix on Friday, and first-year head coach Alvin Gentry called out his team.   ''Terrible, terrible, bad effort,'' Gentry said after a 104-88 loss to the Suns. ''Not playing hard, not giving a damn, that's the way I want to sum it up. We didn't play with effort. We didn't play together as a team, so nothing worked. Nothing, nothing.''

"We played terrible," start center Anthony Davis said. "We weren't competing and we didn't play hard. They just did whatever they wanted and we acted like we didn't want to be here."

After voicing their frustrations through the media and amongst each other, I fully expect the Pelicans to put forth their best effort of the season Sunday against the Denver Nuggets.  This is a team that they can and should beat with the talent they have, and with a little more effort here, I expect them to roll to victory.

The Nuggets come in overvalued after winning five of their last seven games, but four of those wins came by 6 points or less and by a combined 12 points.  They have beaten the Raptors, 76ers, Rockets & Timberwolves (twice) during this stretch.  They also lost by 11 to Orlando and by 9 to Utah.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won four straight meetings.  The Pelicans also want revenge from their 98-115 home loss to the Nuggets in their first meeting this season on November 17.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Pelicans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games.  The Nuggets are 16-38-2 ATS in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday.

15* Davidson/Pitt ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -5

The Pitt Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to an 8-1 start with their only loss coming to Purdue, which is 11-1 on the season.  The numbers this team is putting up are very impressive and certainly lead me to believe they will win this game against Davidson by more than five points.

Jamie Dixon returned four starters and has his best team in years.  The Panthers are outscoring teams by 23.7 points per game this season.  They score 85.3 points per game against teams that give up 75.3 points per game, and they give up 61.6 points per game against teams that average 73.9.  That's roughly a plus-24 point edge against what their opponents average.

Davidson is also off to a solid 7-1 start, but this team has feasted on an easy schedule.  Its seven wins have come against UCF (by 5), College of Charleston (by 1), Mercer (by 6), Denison (by 13), Charlotte, (by 35), Eastern Washington (by 10), and Western Carolina (by 33).  As you can see, the Wildcats have won a lot of close games this year.

In their toughest game of the season, the Wildcats were thoroughly overmatched at North Carolina in a 65-98 road loss as 15-point dogs.  UNC is a better team than Pitt, but it's not that far off.  The Panthers are a real force to be reckoned with in the ACC this season.

Davidson is scoring 13 more points than its opponents give up on average, but it is giving up 2 more points than its opponents average.  That's a plus-11 point edge against what its opponents average.  Compare that to Pitt's plus-24 point edge, and I would make the Panthers 13-point favorites on a neutral court.  Well, this is on a neutral court, and the Panthers should be heavier favorites.

These teams do have a common opponent in Eastern Washington.  Davidson only beat Eastern Washington 96-86 as 16.5-point home favorites.  Pittsburgh beat Eastern Washington 84-51 as 19-point home favorites.  So, the Wildcats only won by 10 while the Panthers won by 33.  This is another sign that the Panthers are far and away the superior team.

The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Davidson is 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Davidson is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Sunday games.  These four trends make for a combined 24-1 system going against the Wildcats.  Bet Pitt Sunday.

15* Baylor/Texas A&M ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M -2.5

The Baylor Bears are off to a 7-1 start because they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They have played seven of their first eight games at home.  In their lone road game, they lost 67-74 at Oregon.  This will be just their second true road game of the season.

The Texas A&M Aggies are the real deal this season.  They are off to an 8-2 start despite playing a brutal schedule.  They have already faced the likes of Texas, Gonzaga, Syracuse and Arizona State all on the road, while also beating Kansas State by 10 at home.  They beat Texas and Gonzaga with their two losses coming to Syracuse and ASU.

So, the Aggies are clearly battle-tested due to the schedule they've been up against.  The Bears are not battle-tested at all.  I'll gladly back the better team that has played tougher competition up to this point, especially when that team is playing at home and laying only 2.5 points.  The Aggies are 6-0 at home this year, beating teams by 25.8 points per game.

Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last three seasons.  The Aggies are 9-2 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two years.  The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Aggies also have a nice scheduling advantage as they last played 7 days ago while the Bears last played 3 days ago.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2.5

Last year was a rebuilding year for the Saint Louis Billikens, who had to break in five new starters and managed to go just 11-21.  That was a rare down year for this program and head coach Jim Crews, who is still 71-39 in his three-plus seasons here even after that disaster.

But the Billikens are vastly improved this season thanks to four returning starters and much better experience.  They are off to a 5-4 start this season.  They opened 4-0 with four straight wins by double-digits before running into the brutal portion of their schedule.

They have lost four of their last five, which has them undervalued here.  But three of those losses came to Louisville, Morehead State and Wichita State.  The Billikens have failed to cover the spread in four straight lined games, which also has them undervalued, especially after an upset loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out.

Indiana State is just 4-6 this season and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  This is a team that already has losses at home to IUPUI and on the road to Eastern Illinois.  Its four wins have come against Wyoming, Norfolk State, Hofstra and Illinois-Springfield.  The Sycamores don't have a quality win yet.

This has been a one-sided series as Saint Louis is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  It has home wins by 9 and 17 points, as well as a 13-point road win last year.  And we know how down the Billikens were last season, yet they went on the road and beat the Sycamores 69-56 as 3.5-point underdogs.

Indiana State is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Sycamores are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.  Indiana State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  Roll with Saint Louis Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks +3

The Chicago Bulls are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back after playing in a 4-overtime, 144-147 home loss to the Detroit Pistons last night.  Now they have to travel all the way to New York to face the Knicks Saturday night with a 7:35 EST tip.

Fred Hoiberg played the same five guys for almost the entire four overtimes.  As a result, Jimmy Butler played 56 minutes, Derrick Rose played 54, Pau Gasol play 48, Taj Gibson played 44 and Tony Snell played 38.  It's safe to say that none of these players are going to have anything left in the tank Saturday.

New York will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after a 107-97 win at Philadelphia Friday.  But this game was decided by the start of the 4th quarter as the Knicks led by 21.  As a result, key starters played small minutes. Carmelo Anthony (28) had the most minutes of anyone, while Arron Afflalo (26), Jose Calderon (24) Kristaps Porzingis (26) and Robin Lopez (16) all had ample rest as well.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between New York and Chicago.  Indeed, the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 Saturday games.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  This will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Bulls, who are simply running on fumes right now.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana +1

The Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish square off at Banker's Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis Saturday in a huge in-state clash.  I believe the wrong team is favored here as the Hoosiers will run away with this one as 1-point underdogs.

Indiana is off to an 8-3 start this season against a brutal schedule.  It has already had to face the likes of Creighton, Wake Forest, UNLV and Duke.  Two of its three losses have come by a combined 7 points.  The only blowout loss came at Duke, and nobody wins in Durham.  But since that loss, the Hoosiers have reeled off three straight blowout victories by 33, 25 and 45 points.

Notre Dame hasn't impressed me at all this season.  Its best wins have come against Iowa (by 6) and Illinois (by 5).  It has lost to the likes of Monmouth and Alabama this season.  The Fighting Irish lost their two best players from last year, and they just aren't as good as they were a year ago when they made a run to the Elite 8.

Indiana returned four starters and brought in one of the best recruits in the country in Thomas Bryant.  Bryant (11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) has played well in his rookie season.  But three returning starters in Yogi Ferrell (16.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.8 rpg), James Blackmon (16.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Troy Williams (13.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg) are all playing lights out.  This is a team to be reckoned with in the Big Ten.  Roll with Indiana Saturday.

15* Villanova/Virginia ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -4.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are 8-1 and one of the best teams in the country this season.  Their only loss came on the road against a tough George Washington team in their second game of the season by 5 points.  They have rolled in all other games.

Indeed, seven of their eight wins have come by 15 points or more.  The lone exception was a 6-point road win at Ohio State.  They just beat West Virginia by 16 as 4.5-point favorites last time out.  What's most impressive about this start is that six of the nine games have been played on the road.

The Cavaliers are outscoring teams by 19.2 points per game on the season.  Their defense has been suffocating once again as they allow 57.1 points per game against teams that average 69.7.  Their offense is improved as they put up 76.3 points against teams that give up 68.

Villanova is off to an identical 8-1 start.  The difference is that the Wildcats have played an easier schedule with just four road games compared to five at home.  They have beaten Stanford, Georgia Tech and St. Joe's on the road, but in their biggest game of the season up to this point, they were destroyed 55-78 by Oklahoma.  A similar fate will be in store for the Wildcats tonight.

Tony Bennett is 8-1 ATS in home games off two straight wins by 15 points or more as the coach of Virginia.  The Cavaliers are coming back to win by 23.5 points per game on average in their next game.  The Cavaliers are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 Saturday games.  The Cavaliers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Long Beach State +12.5

The Long Beach State 49ers have been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball in the early going.  They have played a brutal schedule with 12 games in less than a month against great competition, and they've managed to get through it with a 6-6 record straight up and a 7-2 ATS mark in all lined games.

The 49ers have only been blown out once this season, and that came against Virginia.  Five of their six losses have all come by 7 points or less to Oklahoma State (by 5), San Diego State (by 4), UCLA (by 7), Pepperdine (by 2) and Oklahoma State (by 6) again.  Four of those five losses came on the road.

The 49ers have some great wins to their name as well.  They have beaten BYU as 3.5-point dogs, Seton Hall as a4.5-point dogs, Colorado State as 8-point dogs, and New Mexico State (by 14) as 1-point favorites.  As you can see, they have played such a tough schedule.

Oregon is off to an 8-2 start this season an is laying a few too many points here as a result.  The Ducks have narrow wins over Baylor (by 7), Valpo (by 6) and Fresno State (by 5) all at home this year.  They have also lost to Boise State (by 2) on the road and UNLV (by 11) on a neutral court.

This is a good spot for the 49ers, who have finally had some rest coming into this one.  They have had five days off in between games having last played in an 87-60 home win over Tampa U on December 12.  The Ducks, meanwhile, will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and have had just two days off since their 15-point win over UC-Irvine on Tuesday.

Oregon has made a living off of forcing turnovers this season and getting easy baskets off of them.  The Ducks force 16 turnovers per game this year.  That makes this a great matchup for Long Beach State, which only turns the ball over 11 times per game while forcing 15 turnovers per game of their own.

This game has special meaning for Long Beach State head coach, Dan Monson.  His father, Don Monson, coached at Oregon from 1984-92.  There's no question he will have his team ready to go for this one as he tries to beat his father's former school.

Long Beach State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games coming in.  The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  Roll with Long Beach State Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat come in playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games with a 3-point home win over Memphis, a 12-point road win at Atlanta and a 6-point road win at Brooklyn.

The Heat have done an excellent job of protecting their home court this year as they are 11-4 in home games.  The Raptors are also playing well, winning four of their last six, but all four victories have come at home during this stretch.

The Raptors have lost two straight road games coming in with a 16-point loss at Indiana and a 10-point loss in overtime at Charlotte last night.  The Raptors will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that OT game, plus its their 4th game in 6 days.  This team is short-handed as it is right now as they are missing two starters in center Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings.  Miami has gone 17-2 SU in its last 19 meetings with Toronto with all 17 wins coming by 3 points or more.  In fact, a whopping 16 of those wins came by 5 points or more.  Miami has also won 11 of its last 12 home meetings with Toronto.  Take the Heat Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value tonight as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  They are playing great coming in, and the home team has dominated this series between these two teams as well.

The Bulls have won four straight games coming in with victories over the Clippers, Pelicans, 76ers and Grizzlies.  The last two have come via blowout by 19 and 13 points.  Look for them to continue their solid play tonight against the Pistons and improve upon their 11-3 home record.

The Pistons are also playing well, having won three of their last four.  But two of those wins came at home, and the one road victory was against the lowly 76ers.  The Pistons are just 5-8 SU & 5-8 ATS in road games this season, scoring 95.3 points per game and shooting 40.9% away from home.  Things won't get any easier against the Bulls, who allow 93.8 points on 40.8% shooting at home.

Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series in recent meetings.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Bulls have won their last three home meetings with the Pistons by 6, 11 and 8 points, respectively.

Chicago lost 94-98 in overtime at Detroit in their first and only meeting this season.  That plays right into the Bulls' hands considering they are 55-35 ATS in their last 90 games revenging a loss.  The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall +20.5

The Marshall Thundering Herd are simply catching too many points tonight against the West Virginia Mountaineers in this in-state showdown.  We'll gladly take the 20.5 points in what will be a closer game than the oddsmakers expect.

That was certainly the case last year when Marshall nearly upset West Virginia in a 66-69 loss as 17.5-point underdogs.  This has been a very closely-contested series.  In fact, each of the last 18 meetings have been decided by 16 points or less dating back to 1998.  That's an 18-0 system backing the Thundering Herd when you factor in this 20.5-point spread.  A whopping 14 of those 18 meetings were decided by 10 points or fewer as well.

After an 0-6 start, the Thundering Herd have been playing up to their capabilities here of late with three straight wins by 6, 24 and 19 points coming in.  They are a group that is used to playing at a frantic pace under second-year head coach Dan D'Antoni, the brother of Mike D'Antoni.  West Virginia is a pressing team that likes to force opponents to play faster, and that plays right into Marshall's hands.  Roll with Marshall Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are simply catching too many points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Asking the Thunder to beat them by double-digits to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

The Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  You have to go all the way back to November 30 to find the last time they lost a game by more than 5 points, which is a span of eight games since.  They have won road games at Minnesota and Phoenix during this span, with a 2-point loss to the Bucks and a 5-point loss to the Cavs as well.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season as they are just 9-14 ATS.  They have won five in a row, but only two of their last seven games have they won by double-digits.  The Blazers actually won three of four meetings with the Thunder last year.

In fact, the Blazers have lost by double-digits to the Thunder just once in the last eight meetings.  They have won five of those meetings outright.  The Thunder are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 2 days rest.  Oklahoma City is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Richmond -3.5

I really like this Richmond team that returned four starters from last year.  The Spiders have gotten off to a 6-3 start this season with two of their losses coming on the road to WVU and Florida.  They have beaten the likes of Wake Forest (by 9), California (by 4) and Northern Iowa (by 15), so they have certainly played a gauntlet of a schedule.

The Old Dominion Monarchs have gone just 4-5 this season.  They have played some tough teams as well, but they certainly haven't played a tougher schedule than Richmond.  The Monarchs have really struggled on the road, going 0-5 in all road games while getting outscored by 8.8 points per game.  They are scoring just 56.4 points per game on 36.8% shooting on the road.  To compare, the Spiders are scoring 86.2 points and shooting 51.5% at home.

The one thing that stands out to me is that Richmond simply does not lose to Old Dominion at home.  It is a perfect 9-0 in its last nine home meetings with ODU, which dates all the way back to 1998.  With a spread of only 3.5, the Spiders essentially just have to win this game to cover.  That shouldn't be a problem.

Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last two seasons.  Old Dominion is 0-8 ATS in road games versus teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  Take Richmond Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Celtics NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Boston +1.5

The Boston Celtics want revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers after getting swept in four games in the playoffs last year.  They did play the Cavs tough in the final three games of that series, losing all three games by exactly 8 points.  Now the Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and fully capable of pulling off the upset.

The Celtics are 14-10 on the season, outscoring teams by an average of 5.0 points per game.  The improvement they've made this year is due to their defense.  The Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.

While the Cavaliers are 10-1 at home this season, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, the Cavs are 5-6 straight up and 4-7 ATS in road games this season.  Lebron James, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova are on on the injury report right now with various injuries, though all three are expected to play.  Kyrie Irving remains on the shelf.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Celtics are 38-22 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Boston is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Drexel +17.5

The Drexel Dragons are undervalued right now due to their 1-6 start to the season.  At the same time, the South Carolina Gamecocks are overvalued due to their 8-0 start this season.  This has created the perfect storm and an inflated line that we'll take advantage of here.

The Dragons aren't nearly as poor as their record.  This is a team that returned four starters from last year.  But the Dragons have lost some close games this season as five of their six losses have come by 9 points or less, including a 1-point loss at St. Joe's and a 3-point loss to San Diego.

But this team is playing much better coming in, and they're coming off their best performance of the season.  They went on the road and beat a quality LaSalle team 66-53 as 7.5-point underdogs, covering the spread by 20.5 points.  I look for them to build off that win and to give South Carolina a run for its money tonight.

The Gamecocks have benefited from playing about as easy of a schedule as you could find.  Their eight wins have come against Norfolk State, Oral Robers, DePaul, Hofstra, Tulsa, Lipscomb, Western Carolina and South Florida.  They have yet to play a true road game this season.  Seven of their eight wins have come by 18 points or less, too.

Both teams are playing with 9 days rest in between games, but the Gamecocks are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with 7 or more days rest.  Head coach Frank Martin is a general-type coach, and these Gamecock players probably haven't enjoyed the last nine days of practice time.  South Carolina is 0-6 ATS in home games on Tuesday nights over the last three seasons.  The Dragons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Gamecocks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take Drexel Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

Having lost two straight games to Atlanta and Washington by a combined 6 points, the Dallas Mavericks are going to be highly motivated for a win today to avoid going 0-3 on this 3-game home stand.  They had gone on the road and beaten Washington and New York in their previous two games.

The Mavericks are not only going to be the more motivated team, they are going to be the fresher one as well.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  They have won their last two meetings with the Suns, including a 111-95 road win in their only meeting this season on October 28.

The Suns are in a much tougher spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their 108-101 home win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  The Suns will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days and their 9th game in 14 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  I don't expect the Suns to be able to match the Mavericks' energy level tonight.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 69-32 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are hungry for a victory after losing two straight to Phoenix and Cleveland coming in to fall to 12-11 on the season.  They have now had two days off since that loss to the Cavaliers on Friday to fix their problems, and I look for them to come back with a great effort tonight against the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Magic are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  First-year head coach Scott Skiles has his players buying in to playing defense, and it is showing in the early going.  The Magic rank 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions allowed.

The Nets are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season at 7-16.  They rank 20th in defensive efficiency, giving up 103.2 points per 100 possessions.  They are 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  They are getting outscored by 5.6 points per 100 possessions, while the Magic are outscoring teams by 0.1 points per 100 possessions.

Orlando is 11-2 ATS off two straight games being called for 5-plus more fouls than its opponent over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been a tremendous home team and an awful road team under current head coach Tim Miles.  Getting them as only 1-point home favorites over Rhode Island today is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

Nebraska has gone 5-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 19.3 points per game.  The Huskers' only home loss came by a final of 72-77 to Miami as 5.5-point dogs.  The Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the country.  The Huskers are 6-4 this season with their four losses all coming to very good teams in Villanova, Cincinnati, Miami and Creighton.

Rhode Island is off to a 6-3 start this year, but its six wins have come against American, Cleveland State, TCU, Rider, Holy Cross and Houston.  The Rams were a promising team this year until E.C. Matthews suffered a season-ending knee injury.  He was their best player last year, averaging 16.9 points and 4.6 rebounds per game.  Without him, this is just a slightly above-average team.

Rhode Island is 1-9 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Nebraska is 49-31 ATS in its last 80 home games off a road loss.  Miles is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less as the coach of Nebraska.  Miles is 11-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Nebraska.  Roll with Nebraska Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +13

The Butler Bulldogs are laying a few too many points today to the Tennessee Vols.  This is a Tennessee team that beat Butler 67-55 at home last year and returned four starters from that squad for first-year head coach Rick Barnes.

The Vols are just 4-3 this season, but they really haven't been blown out yet as their three losses came by 2 at Georgia Tech, by 3 on the road to George Washington, and by 11 to Nebraska.  The Vols have not played since November 28th, so they have had a lot of time to prepare for Butler.  They know the Bulldogs inside and out having two weeks to get ready for them.  You can bet they'll be chomping at the bit to get back on thefloor.

Butler has had some lackluster performances this season that would make it hard for me to envision it covering this 13-point spread.  After all, the Bulldogs only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 16 as 29.5-point home favorites, and Indiana State by 14 as 17-point home favorites.  Tennessee is more than capable of staying within 13 and possibly pulling off the upset.

Tennessee is 13-3 ATS versus teams who score 77 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Vols are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Tennessee is 6-1 ATS off a double-digit home loss.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are off to a 5-16 start this season.  This start has been largely due to injuries to several key players, but the Pelicans are now finally healthy.  The only player on the injury report not expected to play is Quincy Pondexter.

Look for the Pelicans to be a good bet going forward after this poor start.  They have had three days in between games having last played on Monday.  They have had time to work out their problems in practice these last three days, and I look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight at home against the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards are not healthy, and they are off to a poor start as well.  They are just 9-11 on the season and have lost seven of their last 10 games overall coming in.  They are without two key post players in Drew Gooden and Nene, and Kris Humphries is questionable with an ankle injury.

Plays on home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.  New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in Friday night home games over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 11.0 points per game.  The Wizards are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston Celtics +6

The Boston Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 13-9 start, but they've been playing their best here of late.  They are 6-2 straight up in their last eight games overall with one of those losses coming by 3 points at San Antonio as 8.5-point dogs.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The reason the Celtics have a great chance to end the Warriors' 23-0 start tonight is because they lock down opponents on defense.  Indeed, the Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.  Avery Bradley is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and he's just the type of player that can slow down Stephen Curry.

The Warriors could be short-handed tonight against the Celtics.  They are already without Harrison Barnes, but now they may be without Klay Thompson as well.  He scored 39 points in the their 131-123 win at Indiana last time out, but rolled his ankle and has stated that he's only 70 percent healthy right now.  Thompson would be a big loss because he's shooting 51.9 percent on 3-pointers this year and averaging 25.4 points over his last five games.

Boston has average 108.0 points over the past five games and had eight players finish in double figures in Wednesday's 105-100 win over Chicago.  David Lee returned from a heel injury to score 12 points while adding six rebounds in 18 minutes.  Lee should play a big role against his former team tonight and will be extra motivated.

The Celtics played the Warriors tough in both meetings last year.  They lost 114-111 as 18-point road dogs, and 106-101 as 8.5-point home dogs.  Boston is 13-2 ATS when the total is at least 210 points over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Boston is 28-15 ATS in its last 43 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The underdog is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Roll with the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers -3

This is one of the rare times that the Cleveland Cavaliers are undervalued as only 3-point favorites over the Orlando Magic tonight.  That's because they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at home to the Wizards, in overtime to the Pelicans, and to the Heat without Lebron James.

But they rebounded with a win over the Blazers last time out, and I look for them to build off of that tonight.  I like the fact that the Cavaliers have had two days off in between games having last played on Tuesday to get ready for the Magic tonight.  They are also expected to get back starting guard Iman Shumpert from injury tonight, which will give them a boost.

The Magic, on the other hand, come into this game overvalued after having won six of their last eight games overall.  They have home wins over the Knicks, Bucks, and Celtics, as well as road wins over the T'Wolves, Clippers and Nuggets during this stretch.  But now they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.

Cleveland has simply owned Orlando.  The Cavs are a perfect 11-0 SU & 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Magic dating back to 2012.  They have won those 11 games by an average of 14.1 points per game.  Take the Cavaliers Friday.

15* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN2 Rivalry Play on Iowa State -7.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-0 start this season and they are one of the most fun teams to watch because they share the ball so well.  They average 18 assists per game, including 21 at home.

They have a ton of balance with five players averaging at least 12.9 points.  Abdel Nader has averaged 16.3 in the past four, and Monte Morris has scored at least 12 in every game while leading the Big 12 with 7.3 assists per game. Jameel McKay is one of two Big 12 players averaging a double-double (13.9 points, 11.6 rebounds).

Iowa State's numbers at both ends of the floor are off the charts.  It is putting up 86.9 points per game and 51.7% shooting against teams that give up 71.7 points and 43.5% shooting.  Defensively, it is giving up 66.6 points per game and 38.3% shooting against teams that average 77.7 points and 44.3% shooting.

Iowa is a quality team from the Big Ten, but it has lost to the two best teams it has faced in Dayton and Notre Dame. This will also be just the second true road game of the season for the Hawkeyes.  They were crushed 75-90 at home by the Cyclones last year, and they don't stand much of a chance of keeping this one close in Ames this time around.

Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win these teams by an average of 21.3 points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  The Cyclones are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Iowa State Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are showing solid value as a nice-sized home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  After battling through several injuries in the early going, the Bucks are finally getting healthy and starting to play up to their potential.

The Bucks have won back-to-back home games with a 106-91 win over New York and a 90-88 win over Portland.  They had to erase a late deficit to beat the Blazers, and they will be coming into this game with a lot of confidence after that win.  I also like they fact that they are really getting after it defensively.  They have held each of their last six opponents to 42.1% shooting or less.

The Los Angeles Clippers have squeaked out back-to-back wins over Orlando (103-101) and Minnesota (110-106).  Both meetings between these teams were decided by 5 points or less last season with Milwaukee winning 111-106 at home, its fourth win in the last six home meetings with Los Angeles.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings.  Plays against road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 47-19 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois -3.5

This is a very generous line we're getting here on the Illinois Fighting Illini as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Yale Bulldogs.  We'll take advantage in what should result in a blowout victory for the home team tonight.

Illinois is undervalued right now because it is off to just a 4-5 start this season.  But it has been playing much better of late.  It has won three of its last five.  Its only two losses came to Iowa State and Notre Dame.  The Fighting Illini played Iowa State tough before giving way late in an 11-point loss.  They only lost by 5 to Notre Dame.  They are coming off a 12-point win over Western Carolina, and they also beat a good UAB by 14 points during this stretch.

Yale has gotten off to a 5-3 start this season.  Its five wins have come against Fairfield, Sacred Heart, Lehigh, Bryant and Vermont.  It has lost all three of its toughest games, including a 19-point loss to Duke and a 34-point loss to Albany.

Illinois is 9-1 ATS after giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds in its previous game over the last two seasons.  Illinois is 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a home game over the last two years.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Fighting Illini.  Roll with Illinois Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +1.5

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 12-8 start while ranking 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and 7th in defensive efficiency.  They have obviously been great on both ends of the floor, but it's their improvement on offense that has made the difference this season.

Charlotte has won seven of its last nine games with its only losses coming to conference leaders Golden State and Cleveland.  It has protected its home court very well this season, going 9-3 in all home games.  The Hornets are scoring 105.0 points per game and allowing 97.6 at home this year.

The Miami Heat are overvalued due to their 12-7 start to the season.  Well, they have taken advantage of a home-heavy schedule, playing 14 of their first 19 games in Miami.  They are just 2-3 on the road this season, scoring only 90.6 points per game away from home.  They have lost their last two trips to Charlotte since parting ways with Lebron James.

Miami is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Heat are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Charlotte is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Heat are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* Maryland/UConn ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Maryland -2

The Maryland Terrapins are one of the best teams in the country.  Most of the preseason media outlets picked either Maryland or North Carolina as the No. 1 ranked teams in the country.  It's hard to argue those rankings with what I've seen from both teams thus far.

Maryland is off to a 7-1 start this season, outscoring teams by 14.9 points per game.  It has beaten some quality opponents like Georgetown and Rhode Island.  Its only loss this season came as an 8-point road underdog to those North Carolina Tar Heels.  The Terrapins lost that game 81-89 and hung very tough in a hostile atmosphere.  Keep in mind that the Tar Heels got back their best player in Marcus Paige in time for that game.

Connecticut is certainly an improved team this season after missing out on the NCAA Tournament last year.  But this Huskies squad hasn't been able to beat the best competition they have faced.  They are 5-2 this season with losses to Gonzaga and Syracuse.  They did beat Michigan, but that win isn't that great considering Michigan lost to Xavier at home by 16.

Mayrland has received solid play from returning starters Melo Trimble (14.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) and Jake Layman (11.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg).  But the biggest reason for the hype from this team was the additions of Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter and Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon.  Both Carter (13.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Sulaimon (11.6 ppg, 52.9% 3-pointers) have lived up to the hype.

The Terrapins are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games.  MarkTurgeon is 50-26 ATS in non-conference road games in all games he has coached.  Turgeon is 8-1 ATS in neutral court games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points as the coach of the Terrapins.  Take Maryland Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight games coming in for the first time this season.  They lost in overtime to New Orleans on Friday, and after playing 45 minutes in that game, Lebron James sat out a loss to Miami the next night on Saturday.

But now the Cavaliers are well-rested and ready to go having two days off in between games.  The same cannot be said for the Portland Trail Blazers, who will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd road game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days overall.

The Blazers are running on fumes right now, which is not good news for them as they won't be able to match the intensity of the Cavaliers tonight.  The Blazers also aren't a very deep team as they rely too heavily on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to do the heavy-lifting.  Lillard played 38 minutes and McCollum 36 in a 90-88 road loss to the Bucks last night.

Portland is 8-23 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest.  Portland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Blazers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Blazers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to Cleveland.  Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Pacers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6

I believe the Golden State Warriors winning streak comes to an end tonight.  I'm just taking the points with the Indiana Pacers for some added insurance.  This is one of the best teams that the Warriors have faced all season, and one that is fully capable of pulling off the upset here.

Indiana is 12-7 on the season.  It has won six straight home games by an average of 11.5 points per game.  That includes back-to-back blowout home wins over Chicago (104-92) and Milwaukee (123-86).  Paul George is among the early MVP favorites as he's averaging 27.6 points, including a career-high 48 in Saturday's overtime loss at Utah.

But the Pacers have now had two days off since that game to prepare for the Warriors.  The Warriors, meanwhile, are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing their 5th road game on a 7-game trip, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have already survived scares at Utah (106-103) and at Toronto (112-109) on this trip, but they aren't likely to be so fortunate against the Pacers, who are playing as well as almost anyone.

Indiana is 14-5 SU & 14-5 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Golden State, including a 104-98 win last year as 4-point home dogs.  Plays on home underdogs (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1996.

Indiana is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record, 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on 2 days' rest, and 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or less this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +1

The Milwaukee Bucks were playing short-handed for much of the season up until the last few games.  That has led to a poor 8-13 start, but now they are getting healthy and are starting to play up to their potential.  They have won each of their last two home games in blowout fashion over the Nuggets (92-74) and Knicks (106-91).

Jabari Parker was injured for most of his rookie season.  He has slowly gotten healthier this season, and he made his first start Saturday against the Knicks and had season highs of 17 points and 35 minutes.  O.J. Mayo started at point guard and had 17 points and five assists with one turnover in 35 minutes.  Michael Carter-Williams came off the bench to add 20 points and five assists.

The Portland Trail Blazers are 9-12 this season and cannot be trusted on a nightly basis.  They had to erase a 17-point second half deficit to beat the Timberwolves on the road Saturday.  They rank last in the NBA in turnover differential (-3.3) while also ranking last in the league with 12.4 points per game off turnovers.  Those two stats right there are why the Blazers can't be trusted because they rely too heavily on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to carry them every night.  If one of them has an off game, they don't stand much of a chance.

The Blazers are 4-7 on the road this season, while the Bucks are 6-4 at home.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Trail Blazers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the Bucks Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans are finally healthy and are going to be a 'play-on' team going forward.  They have opened just 5-15 SU & 7-13 ATS while dealing with a ton of injuries, and that start clearly has them undervalued right now.  They should not be home dogs to the Boston Celtics Monday.

The Pelicans showed what they were capable of when healthy last time out.  They took down Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers 114-108 as 4.5-point home dogs on Friday night.  They have since had two days off in between games to rest and get prepared for Boston.

The Celtics are certainly an improved team, but their 11-9 SU & 11-9 ATS start has them overvalued here.  They gave the Spurs all they wanted on Saturday in a 105-108 road loss.  Now, after coming so close to beating one of the best teams in the NBA, I look at this as a hangover spot.  It will also be the Celtics' 5th straight road game and the final contest in this 5-game trip.

Antony Davis is averaging 34.3 points and 14.7 rebounds in his last three games against Boston as the Celtics simply do not have an answer for him.  Tyreke Evans recently returned from injury, and Jrue Holiday and Omer Asik are healthy now.  The underdog has gone 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series.

New Orleans is 25-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 13-4 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 19-8 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past two years.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets have quietly been one of the better teams in the NBA this season.  They are 11-8 straight up and have won six of their last eight games overall with their only two losses coming to Cleveland and Golden State, the two teams who were in the NBA Finals last year.

Charlotte ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 103.9 points per 100 possessions.  The improvement on the offensive end with the additions of Nicolas Batum and company have made all the difference for this team.  But the Hornets still defend well as they rank 9th in defensive efficiency at 100.2 points allowed per 100 possessions.

The Hornets will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the lowly Lakers on Sunday.  This will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for Detroit.

The Pistons have lost each of their last three road games to Milwaukee (by 21), Oklahoma City (by 16) and Brooklyn (by 4) to fall to 4-7 on the road.  The Hornets are 8-3 at home this season.  Charlotte has won five of its last seven meetings with Detroit.  The Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Take the Hornets Monday.

15* Oklahoma/Villanova Battle of Unbeatens on Oklahoma +4.5

The Oklahoma Sooners come in as the No. 6 ranked team in the country, while the Villanova Wildcats come in as the No. 8 ranked team.  This is one of the biggest early-season non-conference games in college basketball.  But I believe the Sooners are the better team and should not be underdogs.

Oklahoma returned four starters from last year and is a legitimate threat to win the Big 12 this season.  I certainly like what I've seen from this team en route to a 5-0 start.  The Sooners went on the road and beat a very good Memphis team 84-78.  They also crushed Wisconsin 65-48 at home.  Both of those teams are better than anything that Villanova has faced thus far.

Villanova is off to a 7-0 start this season with its seven wins coming against Farleigh Dickinson, Nebraska, East Tennessee State, Akron, Stanford, Georgia Tech and St. Joseph's.  This will by far the toughest test for the Wildcats yet.  They only returned two starters this season and are clearly overvalued due to their 5-1 ATS record in the early going.

Buddy Hield is a National Player of the Year candidate.  He is averaging 21.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game while shooting 47.2% from the field and 50.0% from 3-point range.  Head coach Lon Kruger has stated that this is the hardest-working team he's every been around, and that's a huge statement for a guy with his credentials.  The other three returning starters happen to be their next-three highest scorers in Isaiah Cousins (13.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Ryan Spangler (12.6 ppg, 9.4 rpg) and Jordan Woodard (12.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg).

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - after two consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent after two straight covers as a double digit favorite are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1997.  Okalhoma is 7-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons, winning in these spots by 19.5 points per game.  Take Oklahoma Monday.

15* Long Beach/UCLA CBB Sunday Night BAILOUT on Long Beach State +11

This is strictly a spot play.  I am going to fade the UCLA Bruins because their are coming off their biggest win in the Steve Alford era over No. 1 Kentucky on Thursday.  They beat the Wildcats 87-77 at home.  It's only human nature for a team to come out flat after such a big win, and that's what I expect from these Bruins tonight.

Yes, I realize this is also a tough spot for Long Beach State, which will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  But I've seen enough from this team to know that it is fully capable of staying within 11 points of the Bruins, and possibly pulling off the upset.

In fact, Long Beach State has managed to go 5-4 against a brutal schedule.  It has beaten the likes of BYU, Seton Hall, Colorado State and New Mexico State, which are four quality teams.  Its four losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State (twice) by 5 and 6 points, and San Diego State (by 4).  No team in the country has faced a tougher schedule than LBS, yet they've only lost one game by more than 6 points this season.

Plays on neutral court teams as an underdog (LONG BEACH ST) - after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.  LBS beat Colorado State 83-77 as 8-point road dogs and New Mexico State 67-53 as 1-point home favorites.  Look for the solid play to continue tonight in a potential upset bid of the Bruins.  Roll with Long Beach State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -11

The Oklahoma City Thunder are highly motivated for a victory tonight as they look to bounce back from two straight tough road losses to the Hawks and Heat by a combined 8 points.  They should have no problem getting back in the win column in blowout fashion as they return home to face a team they have owned.

The Thunder are 22-3 straight up in their last 25 meetings with the Kings.  They are 13-0 in all meetings in Oklahoma City during this stretch with an average margin of victory of 13.0 points per game.  The Kings have lost 7 of their last 9 road games while surrendering an average of 114.1 points per game.  The Thunder have won their last two home games over the Nets and Pistons by an average of 13.5 points per game.

This is a brutal spot for the Kings.  They just played in a tiring 113-120 road loss to the Houston Rockets yesterday, meaning this will be the second of a back-to-back for them.  The Kings are 0-5 in 2nd of back-to-back situations this season, losing by an average of 12.2 points per game.  The Thunder have had two days off since their loss to the Heat Thursday.  Sacramento is 1-14 ATS in December games over the last two seasons.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Golden State Warriors are getting all the hype in the NBA right now due to their record-setting 21-0 start.  With that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers that are hard to live up to.  That has been evident of late as they've failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games.

They only won 106-103 at Utah as 7.5-point favorites, and 112-109 at Toronto as 7.5-point favorites last night.  So, they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, which is a very tough spot for them.  They are laying 10.5 points on the road to the Nets when they shouldn't be.

The Nets have been covering machines, but they don't get much respect.  They have gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have only lost three of their last 14 games by double-digits, so they have been extremely competitive, but the betting public continues to fail to take notice.

In fact, the Nets have played the Warriors as tough as anyone this year.  They lost 99-107 (OT) back on November 14 as 16.5-point dogs.  They actually led that game late in regulation before Andre Iguodala hit a clutch 3-pointer to force overtime.

Playing the Warriors tough is nothing new for the Nets.  The home team is 5-0 SU & in the last five meetings, and the Nets have actually won each of their last four home games this season.  Also, the Warriors haven't beaten the Nets by more than 9 points in any of their last 11 meetings.  That's a perfect 11-0 system backing Brooklyn pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UMass -1.5

I believe UMass (5-1) is a much better team than Ole Miss (5-2) and should be a heavier favorite today.  This is essentially a home game for the Minutemen to boot, at will be played at the MassMutual Center in Springfield, MA.

UMass beat a very good Clemson team 82-65 as 7.5-point underdogs to really open my eyes.  It is coming off a 30-point win over Boson last time out.  But the  numbers tell the story for me.  UMass is averaging 83.3 points against teams that only allow 73.4 points, and it is allowing 72.5 points against teams that average 76.5.  That's the sign of a very good team.

Ole Miss already has a 6-point loss to George Mason and a 12-point loss to Seton Hall, both on neutral courts, which are two average teams that aren't as good as UMass.  Ole Miss is only a slightly better-than-average team when you look at the numbers.  It is putting up 72.6 points per game against teams that allow 70.6, and allowing 66.3 points per game against teams that score 69.7 on average.

The Minutemen have three absolute studs that carry them every game.  Jabarie Hinds (19.7 ppg, 5.5 apg), Trey Davis (18.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Donte Clark (16.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg) are the best trio in the Atlantic 10 in my book.  All three are deadly from 3-point range.  Hinds shoots 48.6%, Davis 47.4% and Clark 38.9%.   It's no wonder this team is putting up over 83 points per game this year.

UMass is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games.  The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Rebels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win.  Take UMass Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Nevada +10.5

Nevada is certainly one of the most improved teams in the country.  It returned four starters from last year and is off to a 5-2 start this season.  Its two losses have come to Hawaii and CS-Fullerton both on the road by a combined 10 points.  The Wolf Pack have five players scoring in double figures, and seven players averaging at least 8.6 points, so they play team basketball.

The numbers show to me that Nevada can hang with this Oregon State outfit.  Nevada is averaging 80.9 points per game against teams that allow 75.6, and it is giving up 68.7 points per game against teams that score 74.9 on average.  Those are some impressive numbers to say the least.

Oregon State is too reliant on one player for my liking.  Gary Payton II is a great player, but he is asked to do too much for this team.  The Bears are scoring 75.2 points per game against teams that allow 73, and they are allowing 64.3 against teams that average 69.8.  Solid numbers, but not quite as good as what Nevada has done.  If anything, you could argue that Nevada is the better team, yet it is catching double-digit points.

The Beavers are 1-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in.  The Beavers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Oregon State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Roll with Nevada Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are a better team than they've shown during their 7-12 start to the season.  But they have dealt with a plethora of injuries for most of the year, and they are finally healthy for the first time.  Because of this slow start, they are undervalued right now, so it's time to get on board with the Bucks in the near future now that they've returned to near full strength health-wise.

The Detroit Pistons come in overvalued off back-to-back wins and covers over the Rockets and Suns at home.  I like this Detroit team, but I don't believe it should be laying 6.5 points to the Bucks, who are pretty much its equals when healthy.  But the recent head-to-head history shows that the Bucks have owned the Pistons.

Indeed, the Bucks are 4-0 straight up in their last four meetings with the Pistons, winning by 21, 15, 16 and 12 points.  That's an average margin of victory of 16.0 points per game.  In fact, the Bucks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven meeting with the Pistons.  They haven't lost to Detroit by more than 5 points in any of their last seven meetings.

Plays on road underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1996.  The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Detroit.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +8

Marshall was in rebuilding mode last year under first-year head coach Dan D'Antoni.  It went just 11-21 overall but improved as the season went on, finishing a respectable 7-11 in C-USA play.  Marshall is the alma mater of D'Antoni, and he's trying to resurrect the program with his free-wheeling, fast-paced style that he learned as a longtime NBA assistant with the Suns, Knicks and Lakers under his brother, Mike D'Antoni.

The Herd returned four starters from last year.  That includes double-double machine Ryan Taylor (14.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg LY) and Austin Loop (11.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg), who took well to D'Antoni's system.  Also back are Aleksa Nikolic, who started 25 games last year, and Justin Edmonds (9.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg).  Both Loops and Edmonds are great 3-point shooters who fit the system well.

D'Antoni also got some help both here and abroad in the offseason.  He nabbed Junior College transfer Terrence Thompson, who posted 12 double-doubles while helping Georgia Highlands reach the NJCAA semifinals last year.  He also got two stretch four Euros in 6-9 Aleksandar Dozic from Montenegro and 6-9 Ajdin Penava from Bosnia and Herzegovina.  He's starting to really get his pieces in place.

It hasn't been the best start for the Herd, who are 0-4 thanks to a brutal schedule.  They have played three road games already and were an underdog of 13.5, 11.5 and 7.5 points in those games.  They were also a 3-point home underdog to James Madison.  They have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, which has them undervalued coming into this game.  The Herd will be highly motivated to get their first win of the season, and I believe they have a great chance to get it against Akron.

Akron is off to a 5-2 start this season, which includes a win over Arkansas.  But Akron only beat Coppin State 77-71 at home last time out, which was on Wednesday night.  That means Akron has only had one day in between games to get ready for Marshall, and that's not enough time to prepare for D'Antoni's fast-paced system.  That scheduling disadvantage is a great a reason as any to fade the Zips tonight.

Marshall played Akron extremely tough in its last two meetings.  It lost 70-63 on the road last season as 12.5-point underdogs, and 58-59 on the road two seasons ago as 11.5-point dogs.  So, the Herd will also be out for revenge from those two losses by a combined eight points to the Zips.  I think they'll have a great chance to get it considering they will be at home this time around.

Plays on any team (MARSHALL) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (less than 63 PPG), after allowing 85 points or more two straight games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Akron is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last two seasons, actually losing in this spot by an average of 4.3 points per game.  Take Marshall Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on USC -1

The USC Trojans are a team I have my eye on this season.  They returned all five starters from last year and are a sleeper in the Pac-12.  They didn't disappoint in their first five games, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS, which included an upset victory over Wichita State.

But they have gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games.  They lost to one of the best teams in the country in Xavier by 10, and followed that up with a 10-point loss to Monmouth, which is one of the best small-conference teams in the land.  They certainly suffered a hangover from that Xavier loss against Monmouth, and they had already beaten Monmouth by 11 at home earlier this season, so they weren't motivated to face them again.  Now the Trojans will be hungry to snap this 2-game skid tonight.

I have not been impressed with UC-Santa Barbara during its 2-3 start.  Its two wins have come against Nebraska-Omaha and San Francisco by a combined 8 points.  The three losses have come against fellow Pac-12 teams in California (by 18), Oregon State (by 12) and Arizona State (by 2).  I believe USC is right on par with Oregon State and better than Arizona State.

The Trojans are scoring 84.6 points per game and shooting 46.4% against teams that only allow 72 points per game and shoot 42.2%.  Their defense has also been vastly improved, giving up 37.8% shooting against teams that average 41.4% shooting.

USC is 13-3 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last three seasons.  The Trojans are 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  USC is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  Roll with USC Thursday.

15* Thunder/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder had won four straight before falling 100-106 at Atlanta last time out.  They had a rare off night shooting just 39.8% in the loss after topping 52% in three of their previous four games.  Look for them to get back in the win column tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Heat are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA in my opinion.  They have played one of the easiest schedules in the league to this point.  Against the three best teams they faced in Cleveland, Atlanta and Indiana, they lost.  Now this will be their toughest test of the season against a fully healthy OKC team that ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency at 107.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Thunder owned the Heat in their two meetings last year.  They won 94-86 at home as 7.5-point favorites, and 93-75 on the road as 4-point favorites.  Kevin Durant only played in one of those two games.  But Durant has returned to the lineup for the past four games, and this team is so much better with him.

Miami is 1-10 ATS versus teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game ovre the last two seasons.  OKC is 68-41 ATS in its last 109 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Thunder are 70-41 ATS in their last 111 after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take the Thunder Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on BYU +8.5

BYU is a team I have my eye on after it went 25-10 last year and made the NCAA Tournament.  That's because it returned three starters, led by Kyle Collinsworth (13.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 6.0 apg), who had an NCAA-record six triple-doubles last year.

The Cougars are off to a 4-1 start this season with their only loss coming by a single point at Long Beach State.  Collinsworth (15.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 6.2 apg) is among five players scoring in double figures.  Nick Emery (15.4 ppg, 4.0 apg) is a former Utah Mr. Basketball.  Kyle Davis (12.2 ppg, 12.0 rpg) is a beast on the boards, Chase Fischer (11.4 ppg) is a sharpshooper, and Corbin Kaufusi (10.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg) does the dirty work.

Utah hasn't impressed me at all this season and should not be laying 8.5 points here.  Yes, it is off to a 5-1 start, but four of those victories have come by 11 points or less.  The Utes only beat Southern Utah by 11 as 24.5-point home favorites, San Diego State by 5 as 5-point home favorites, Texas Tech by 10 as 8.5-point favorites, and Temple by 6 as 6.5-point favorites.  They also lost to the best team they've played in Miami by a final of 66-90, which is a game that shows me they aren't nearly as good as they were a year ago.

Utah's strength is its big men, but the Cougars clearly have the answer in the post.  They are outrebounding their opponents 51-35 this season, while the Utes are only outrebounding foes 39-33.  The Cougars are outscoring foes by 18.4 points per game this season, while the Utes are only outscoring opponents by 6.4 points per game.  The Utes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Roll with BYU Wednesday.

15* Indiana/Duke ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Indiana +10.5

The Indiana Hoosiers have suffered two losses already, which has them undervalued here.  Their two losses came to Wake Forest and UNLV by a combined seven points as they simply couldn't get it done down the stretch.  But this is still one of the best teams in the country, and the Hoosiers have no business being double-digit underdogs to Duke here.

Indiana returned four starters from last year and added in big man Thomas Bryant (12.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg), who is shooting 70.2 percent from the floor and also gives them a defensive presence in the pain that they didn't have last year.  James Blackmon (17.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Yogi Ferrell (156.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg) give the Hoosiers one of the best guard tandems in the country.  Troy Williams (11.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) does a little bit of everything.

Duke only returned one starter this year, and it is still a work in progress.  The Blue Devils lost their toughest game 63-74 to Kentucky.  They also only beat VCU by 8 as 10-point favorites and Georgetown by 2 as 6-point favorites.  But they are coming off two straight covers against Yale and Utah State, which I believe has them overvalued here as 10-point favorites.

Indiana can score with anyone.  It is putting up 88.3 points per game on 54.7% shooting this season.  Its defense is improved as well as it is allowing 69.6 points per game against opponents that average 74.1 points per game, so this is finally an above-average defensive squad.  Duke gives up 70.1 points per game against opponents that average 73.8, so the Blue Devils are only slightly above average on that end as well.

The Hoosiers are 9-1 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six games against the spread over the last two seasons.  They haven't covered in three of their last four, which I believe has provided some extra value here.  Bet Indiana Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +10

The Denver Nuggets could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have gone 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, and this awful stretch has the betting public wanting to avoid them at all costs. But this is the time to buy low on the Nuggets tonight as double-digit underdogs to the Bulls.

Chicago is in a massive letdown spot here.  It is coming off a huge 92-89 home win over the San Antonio Spurs last time out, and it's going to be hard for the Bulls to get up for this game against the Nuggets off such a big victory.

Both meetings between these teams last year were decided by exactly five points, and the Nuggets weren't very good last year.  They won by 5 at home and lost by 5 on the road as 10.5-point dogs.  I have no doubt that they can stay within double-digits of the Bulls once again.

Also, the Nuggets are 6-2 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Bulls.  In fact, they have only lost by more than 5 points to the Bulls once in the last 11 meetings.  That's a 10-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -12

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team I have my eye on this season.  They returned four starters from last year for first-year head coach Ben Howland, who took UCLA to three straight Final Fours from 2006-08.  They also added in one of the top freshmen in the country in Malik Newman.

While Mississippi State is just 3-3 this season, it has not disappointed against the spread, going 4-1 ATS in its five lined games.  It has covered three straight coming in, which includes back-to-back blowout wins over Missouri State by 14 as 6-point favorites and Tennessee-Martin by 25 as 10.5-point favorites.

All four returning starters are playing a big role already in Gavin Ware (20.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg), I.J. Ready (12.8 ppg, 5.5 apg), Craig Sword (11.8 ppg) and Travis Daniels (8.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  Newman (11.4 ppg) is still trying to find his footing, but it won't be long before he becomes one of the better players in the country.

Texas Southern is just 1-5 this season with its only win coming at home against Texas-San Antonio.  It is 0-5 on the road this season where it is getting outscored by 18.0 points per game.  Texas Southern lost by 29 at New Mexico, by 23 at Creighton, by 20 at Clemson and by 12 at Washington State.  I believe Mississippi State is as good or better as all four of those teams that Texas Southern lost by 12 points or more to on the road.

The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last two seasons.  Plays on a home team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after two straight wins by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Mississippi State Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans +1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans return home from a tough 3-game road trip.  They had won three straight prior to falling to both the Clippers and Jazz on the road in their last two games.  I look for them to bounce back with a victory now that they are back at home, where they have won their last two over the Spurs (104-90) and Suns (122-116).

The Grizzlies haven't exactly been that great on the road this season, going 4-5 overall, including 2-4 in their last six road contests.  I believe they come in overvalued here due to winning seven of their last nine games overall.

Reinforcements are finally on the way for the Pelicans.  Both Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole are expected to make their season debuts tonight.  Evans was second on the team in scoring last year at 16.6 points per game, but he also chipped in 6.6 assists and 5.3 rebounds.  He was a huge reason for their success.  Cole averaged 9.9 points in 28 games off the bench last year after being acquired from Miami.

Home-court advantage was huge in this series last year as these teams split the season series 2-2 with the home team going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  I look for that trend to continue here.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in.  The Grizzlies are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven trips to New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on William & Mary -3.5

Coach Tony Shaver has built William & Mary into a program that competes at the upper echelon of the Colonial Athletic Association every year.  This is a team that went 20-13 last year and tied for first atop the conference with a 12-6 CAA mark.

Shaver returns four starters from that team in Omar Prewitt (13.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg LY), Terry Tarpey (11.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg), Daniel Dixon (11.1 ppg) and Sean Sheldon (6.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  Those four have been the leading scorers for this team during a 4-2 start in 2015-16.  Prewitt (17.3. ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Sixon (15.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg) have been sensational, while Tarpey (10.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Sheldon (8.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg) are having fine seasons as well.

William & Mary's two losses this season have come to Dayton and Howard, both on the road, by a combined 5 points.  The 66-69 loss at Dayton as 9.5-point road dogs was especially impressive.  But it wasn't as impressive as William & Mary's 85-68 upset win at NC State as 12.5-point underdogs.  That effort signified that the Tribe would be a tough team to deal with this season.

Old Dominion is 3-0 at home this year with wins against overmatched opponents like Niagara, Buffalo and Morgan State.  But it is 0-3 on the road/neutral site games with a blowout loss to Purdue 39-61, a loss to St. Joe's (64-66), and a loss to VCU (67-76).  The Monarchs are only averaging 56.7 points on 34.5% shooting on the road.  The Tribe are averaging 85.5 points on 46.8% shooting at home this year, and 78.2 points on 48.3% shooting in all games, including 41.3% from 3-point range.

William & Mary is 16-4 ATS vs teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three  seasons.  Old Dominion is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  The Monarchs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tribe are 8-1 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Tribe are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  The home team won both meetings between these teams last year.  The Monarchs are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take William & Mary Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +8

This is a great spot to fade the Los Angeles Clippers.  The betting public is starting to back them again because they have won three of their last four, but those three wins have come against Denver, New Orleans and Minnesota.  They also lost at home to the Jazz 91-102 during this stretch.

But the real reason to fade the Clippers is because they are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back off their 107-99 win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  Not only that, they will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, as well as their 8th game in 12 days.  That's about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.

The Blazers, meanwhile, come in on one days' rest after beating the Lakers 108-96 at home on Saturday.  In fact, they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  This is a young team that will be playing with a lot more energy than the Clippers tonight, and thus they will cover this 8-point spread with ease.

I also like how tough the Blazers have played the Clippers in recent meetings.  They beat Los Angeles 102-91 on November 20 at home in their first meeting as 4.5-point underdogs.  Get this: Each of the previous seven meetings between these teams were decided by 6 points or less.  There's a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well, so the 8 points is going to come into play.  The Blazers haven't lost by more than 6 to the Clippers in any of the last 8 meetings.

The Clippers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 November home games.  Los Angeles is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games, and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The road team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5

The Golden State Warriors could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  They are 18-0 and have covered six straight coming in, and the betting public continues to back them night in and night out.  It's now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points on the road to the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They aren't a fancy team like the Warriors, but they simply get the job done.  They have gone 8-7 straight up and 9-5-1 ATS in all games this season.  I really like this team because they play suffocating defense, giving up just 93.2 points per game.

Last year, the Warriors rolled into Sal Lake City in their final meeting and lost 100-110 despite being 10-point favorites.  Utah is now 31-8 straight up in its last 39 home meetings with the Warriors.

Utah is 38-24 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on one days' rest.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Jazz Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are finally healthy and playing up to their potential.  They have won four straight, the last three of which came once Kevin Durant came back from injury.  They have won by 22, 11 and 16 points with Durant back in the lineup.

Now the Thunder have had ample rest heading into this game with the Atlanta Hawks.  They last played on Friday in a 103-87 home win over the Pistons.  They have had two days off in between games.  The Hawks, meanwhile, will be playing their 5th game in 7 days after an 88-108 loss at San Antonio on Saturday.

The Thunder will have a huge edge on the board in this one.  They lead the NBA in rebounding margin (plus-7.7) and outrebounded Detroit 58-38 last time out while holding Andre Drummond to seven boards.  Atlanta was outrebounded 49-43 by San Antonio and ranks near the bottom of the league with a minus-3.7 margin this season.

The Thunder did lose their last trip to Atlanta, but haven't lost consecutive road games to the Hawks since 1993-94 when the franchise was based in Seattle.  They have won nine of their last 12 trips to Atlanta.  The Thunder are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road meetings.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Illinois State +20

Illinois State is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference.  A 3-4 start doesn't do this team justice, but the Redbirds are now undervalued as a result.  This start can be attributed to a brutal schedule.

The Redbirds lost on the road to San Diego State 60-71 in the opener.  They held a 2-point lead over No. 1 Maryland with just six minutes to go before giving way in a 66-77 loss.  Those two efforts right there show that the Redbirds can play with the best teams in the country.

Kentucky is clearly overvalued right now due to its No. 1 national ranking.  The Wildcats are 6-0, but they are just 2-4 ATS.  Five of their six wins have come by 21 points or less, and the lone exception was a 30-point home win over New Jersey Tech.  They beat Albany at home by 13, Wright State at home by 15, Boson at home by 20, and South Florida on a neutral court by 21.  Illinois State is better than all four of those teams.

"We're playing a good team. Illinois State. I watched their Maryland game. They had Maryland beat. They've got a quick guard, (Paris) Lee. I'm not sure what we'll be able to do with him. They've got a kid, (DeVaughn Akoon-) Purcell, that's scoring 16, 17 a game." Kentucky head coach John Calipari said.  "Will be a tough matchup for us depending on how we play. They've got some veteran guys."

Kentucky is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more.  The Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Illinois State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Xavier -2

The Xavier Musketeers are showing great value as only 2-point favorites over the Dayton Flyers Sunday in the Championship Game of this Advocare Invitational Tournament.  I'll gladly back them as small favorites here when they should be laying more points.

Both teams are undefeated this season, but that's about where the similarities stop.  I've been much more impressed with Xavier's 6-0 start than Dayton's 5-0 effort.  The Flyers are very fortunate to be 5-0 as their last three wins have come by 3, 5 and 3 points against William & Mary, Iowa and Monmouth.

Xavier has been much more dominant, going 6-0 while winning all 6 games by 9 points or more.  That includes a 12-point home win over Missouri, a 16-point road win at Michigan, a 19-point win over Alabama on a neutral court, and a 10-point win over USC on a neutral court.

Dayton is without its top two players from last year.  Jordan Sibert (16.1 ppg) graduated, while Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg) has been suspended indefinitely.  This was an NCAA Tournament team last year, but without those two, I have my doubts that the Flyers can get back to the big dance.

Xavier is 9-1 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Musketeers are 9-1 ATS versus very good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 39% or less over the last three years.  Roll with Xavier Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are about as undervalued as they could get right now.  That's because they have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall behind some atrocious defense.  But this should be a good defensive teams with the length they have at all positions, so it's not going to last.

Plus, Jason Kidd returns from his one-game suspension after being apart from the team in a 90-114 loss at Orlando on Friday.  Look for the Bucks to lay it all on the line tonight to turn this around, and for that to really show on the defensive end against the Hornets in this one.

Charlotte had won four straight before a 90-95 home loss to the Cavaliers on Friday.  The Hornets are overvalued due to this recent run.  I certainly expect them to suffer a hangover from that loss to the Cavaliers as they simply couldn't get it done in the 4th quarter.  It's going to be hard to want to play the Bucks after facing a team like Cleveland.

Three of the last five meetings between these teams have gone to overtime, with the latest being a 104-94 road win by the Bucks on December 29th of last season.  These games typically go down to the wire when the Bucks and Hornets get together, so the 6.5 points her could certainly come into play.

Milwaukee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games with a total set of 200 or more points.  The Hornets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bucks Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -8.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country.  They are currently ranked No. 4 after their 4-0 start that has seen them dominate the competition.  First-year head coach Steve Prohm stepped into a great situation with four returning starters, and everyone has bought in as he has been playing pretty much the same system that Fred Hoiberg did before him, only he emphasizes defense more.

The Cyclones are hitting on all cylinders  offensively.  They are scoring 89.0 points per game on 53.0% shooting and 43.5% from 3-point range.  They average 20 assists per game as they simply share the ball as well as anyone in the country.  Defensively, they only give up 66.5 points per game on 37.8% shooting, allowing just 11 assists per game to compare.

Illinois is clearly one of the worst teams in the Big Ten with a 3-3 start this season.  It has lost to North Florida (81-93) and Chattanooga (77-81) at home, and needed a buzzer-beater to beat Chicago State 82-79 at home.  That gives these teams a couple common opponents.

Iowa State beat Chicago State 106-64 at home, or by 42 points.  Iowa State also beat Chattanooga 83-63 at home, or by 20 points.  Given those results compared to Illinois, it's easy to see why I like Iowa State to cover this generous 8.5-point spread.  The Cyclones continued to play well yesterday in a 99-77 win over VA Tech.

The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  They continue to roll against the overmatched Fighting Illini today.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2.5

The Toronto Raptors are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this year.  They are 10-6 and have won three straight with an 11-point road win over the Lakers, an 11-point road win over the Clippers, and a 4-point home win over the Cavaliers.  They have given up an average of just 90.8 points per game in their last four as they have picked it up defensively.

The Wizards are scuffling right now.  They fell to 6-7 with their 78-111 loss to Boston on Friday.  They've allowed an average of 115.6 points per game in their losses this season as they clearly aren't putting enough emphasis on defense.  It appears that coach Randy Wittman is losing his team.

The Raptors want revenge after getting swept in four games in their opening round series to the Wizards in last year's playoffs.  I like their chances given the situation.  Toronto has had two days off having last played on Wednesday.  Meanwhile, Washington will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days.  I'll take the more rested, more motivated team in this one.

Plays against home underdogs (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Washington is 5-16 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.

The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, 9-1 ATS when the total is 200 or more this season, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  These five trends combine for a 30-1 system backing Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Saturday

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers have been the best team in the NBA over the past couple weeks.  They are shooting a league-best 41.6 percent from 3-point range this season and have won nine of 11 games this month.

Paul George scored 40 points and hit seven 3-pointers in a 123-106 win Tuesday at Washington.  C.J. Miles hit eight and scored 32 points.  It's clear right now that this team is hitting on ally cylinders offensively, scoring 112, 123 and 123 points in its last three games overall.

Indiana wants revenge from a 95-96 loss at Chicago on November 16, which was only its 2nd loss in its last 11 games.  The other was a narrow 97-101 road loss at Cleveland.  The Pacers are 5-0 at home during this stretch and should improve to 6-0 in their last six home games with a win Friday.

The home team has won each of the last three meetings in this series, and 10 of the last 12 meetings overall.  The Pacers are 31-11 in their last 42 home meetings with the Bulls. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Chicago is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games following a road win.

Indiana is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Pacers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when playing on 2 days' rest.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks want revenge from a 78-95 road loss at Miami Monday night just four days ago.  That loss had followed up a 4-game winning streak that featured road wins over both the Thunder and Rockets.  The Knicks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season at 8-8 SU & 10-6 ATS.

The Miami Heat are way overvalued due to their 9-5 start to the season.  But they have played one of the softest schedules in the NBA, and a home-heavy schedule at that.  The Heat have played 10 home games compared to just four road games.  They are 1-3 on the road this season.

I used this theory that the Heat are overvalued when I faded them in an 81-104 road loss to Detroit on Wednesday.  I'll gladly fade them again as there's no way they should be a road favorite over the Knicks here, especially with the Knicks having revenge in mind, thus they'll be the more motivated team.

New York is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent this season.  Miami is 2-13 ATS after having won 3 of its last 4 games coming in over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 38-19 ATS in their last 57 after coming off a 4-game road trip or longer.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +23.5

I really like the prospects of this Arkansas State team because it returned all five starters from last year.  In fact, all nine of its rotation players are back.  Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double last year (15.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg), and he's doing the same this year (14.0 ppg, 10.8 rpg) already.

Cameron Golden (13.7 ppg LY) and Sean Gardner (12.0 ppg LY) are also two studs who are back.  But two guys who have been really playing well that aren't returning starters are Devin Carter (14.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Donte Thomas (13.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 5.4 apg).

Arkansas State and Baylor have a couple common opponents that really make me think the Red Wolves can easily stay within 23.5 of the Bears today.  They are Jackson State and Oregon.  Arkansas State beat Jackson State by 9 at home and lost to Oregon by 23 on the road.  Baylor beat Jackson State by 17 at home and lost to Oregon by 7 on the road.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (ARKANSAS ST) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game, on Friday nights are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1997.  The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet Arkansas State Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The New Orleans Pelicans are starting to get more healthy by the day.  It has really paid off as they've put together their two best games of the season in their last two contests.  I look for them to continue to play well tonight as they did themselves out of an early hole due to the injuries.

It started with a 104-90 home win over the Spurs on November 20 as 7.5-point underdogs.  The Pelicans also won 122-116 at home over these same Phoenix Suns on November 22.  Now they have had two days off in between games to get ready to face the Suns again.

Phoenix doesn't have the same luxury as this will be its 3rd game in 4 days.  After losing to the Pelicans, the Suns also went on the road and lost to the Spurs 84-98 the next night.  Leading scorer Eric Bledsoe (23.2 ppg, 5.8 apg, 2.0 spg) missed that game against the Spurs with a knee injury.  Bledson is questionable to return tonight.  I like the Pelicans either way, but if Bledsoe sits it would be an added bonus.

Anthony Davis is averaging 31.2 points and 3.0 blocks over the last four games in which he's played at least 20 minutes.  Ryan Anderson has been a huge spark, too, averaging 28.3 points on 55.8 percent shooting over his last four contests while going 15 of 32 from 3-point range.

The Pelicans have won three of their last four meetings with the Suns with their only loss coming by a mere two points.  New Orleans is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -5.5

You'll be hard-pressed to get the Maryland Terrapins at a better value than we're getting them tonight.  They are only 5.5-point favorites over the Rhode Island Rams in this Championship Game of the Cancun Challenge.

The Terrapins are getting a lot of hype because they are the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  But they haven't lived up to that hype in terms of the spread.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, failing to cover as 9-point favorites against Georgetown, as 19.5-point favorites against Ride and as 13-point favorites against Illinois State.  I believe they are finally undervalued now as a result.

Still, they have managed to start 4-0, and now they are the smallest favorites (-5.5) they have been all season.  The scary part is they aren't shooting the ball well, yet they have a plethora of great shooters.  They are only making 30.1 percent of their 3-point shots, down from 37.6 a year ago.  It's only a matter of time before they start falling with the talent this team possesses.

Rhode Island was going to be an NCAA Tournament team in my opinion before losing E.C. Matthews to a torn ACL suffered in practice last week.  Matthews averaged 16.9 points per game last season, leaving a gaping hole in the Rams' offensive plans going forward.  They were able to get by TCU 66-60 yesterday, but they aren't going to be as fortunate against one of the best teams in the country a night later.

Rhode Island has lost 28 of its last 29 games against ranked opponents.  The Rams' last win over a top-5 team was an 80-75 victory over No. 2 Kansas in the second round of the 1998 NCAA Tournament.

The Terrapins are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.  The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Rhode Island is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Take Maryland Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4

Sacramento's best player in DeMarcus Cousins is doubtful to play in this game tonight due to a back injury.  I like the Bucks enough at -4 even if he plays that I'd still recommend them, but it's just an added bonus if Cousins sits out like he's supposed to.

Milwaukee is a team to keep your eye on in the upcoming weeks.  The Bucks were banged up in the early going, but now they are finally healthy and playing to their potential.  That showed in a 109-88 home win over the Detroit Pistons last time out to put an end to a 3-game losing streak, which came in road losses to Washington, Cleveland and Indiana.  Seven different players scored in double-figures for the Bucks in that win over the Pistons.

Sacramento is just 5-10 this season and has been awful when Cousins hasn't played.  The Kings have been particularly poor on the road, going 1-5 while allowing opponents to score 111.5 points per game on 47.6% shooting. The Bucks are a respectable 4-3 at home this season and allowing just 42.4% shooting.

The Bucks are 9-1 ATS off two straight games where their opponent was called for 18 or fewer fouls over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 non-conference road games.   The Kings are 9-20-3 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The Bucks are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +1.5

The Detroit Pistons have lost two straight and six of their last eight and really need a win here.  They are undervalued due to this recent stretch, but they've played a brutal schedule this season.  They have played eight of their last 10 games on the road and only five home games all season.

The Miami Heat are overvalued due to their 9-4 start to the season.  They have taken advantage of an extremely easy schedule with 10 home games compared to just three road games.  They are 1-2 on the road this season with their only win coming at Minnesota.

The home team went 3-0 between these teams last year with Detroit winning both of its home meetings with Miami, including a 108-91 victory in its first meeting last year.

The Heat are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. win.  Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on 1 days' rest.  The Pistons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Miami is 1-10 ATS after allowing 85 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1.5

We're getting the Orlando Magic at a great price tonight as they basically just need to win this game to cover the 1.5-point spread against the Knicks.  The value here comes from the recent success of the Knocks and the recent poor performance ATS for the Magic.

The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and they are overvalued as a result.  They did lose 78-95 at Miami last time out and that will be a sign of things to come.  The Magic are 1-6 ATS int heir last seven games overall, so they couldn't be more undervalued here.

The Magic have played their best basketball at home this season where they are 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS.  They are limiting opponents to just 41.3% shooting at home as their defense has been so much better this year under the guidance of Scott Skiles.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas State +21.5

The Oregon Ducks are way overvalued here due to their 4-0 start to the season.  They have survived a couple scares from Baylor (74-67) and Valparaiso (73-67) while also beating Jackson State (80-52) and Savannah State (77-59).

Arkansas State is 2-2 with home wins over Lyon (81-37) and Jackson State (78-69), as well as road losses to SIU-Edwardsville (70-79) and Savannah State (75-76).  That gives these teams two common opponents, and I believe the results in those two games suggest that the Red Wolves can stay within 21.5 points of the Ducks here.

I really like the prospects of this Arkansas State team because it returned all five starters from last year.  In fact, all nine of its rotation players are back.  Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double last year (15.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg), and he's doing the same this year (15.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg) already.  Cameron Golden (13.7 ppg) and Sean Gardner (12.0 ppg) are also two studs who are back.

The Red Wolves are averaging 76.0 points per game this season, which is great for a team not known for its offense.  The Red Wolves pride themselves on defense, and that has been the case this year as they are only allowing opponents to shoot 34.8% from the field.

Plays on road teams as an underdog or pick (ARKANSAS ST) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS since 1997.  The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Roll with Arkansas State Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago Bulls -2.5

The Chicago Bulls come in well-rested and ready to go.  They were last seen losing 94-106 at Golden State after blowing an 11-point lead on Friday.  They have since had three days off in between games and will be the fresher team in this showdown with Portland.

It also helps that Derrick Rose is expected to make his return from an ankle injury.  Rose missed the Bulls' last two games with a win at Phoenix and a loss at Golden State.  He was a full participant in practice on Sunday and this extra time off has helped him recover.

The Bulls are 8-4 this season.  The last three times they've lost, they've come back their next game and gotten a win, so they are 3-0 following a loss this season.  The Blazers come in overvalued due to two straight wins over the Clippers and Lakers.  They had lost seven straight games prior to winning their last two.  They also played on Sunday, only having one day off in between games.

Plays against home teams (PORTLAND) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, in November games are 39-16 (70.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Portland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Take the Bulls Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pepperdine -3.5

I believe Pepperdine to be one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They went 18-14 last year overall and 10-8 in WCC play.  They pulled off back-to-back upsets over Saint Mary's and BYU last February.  The good news this year? All five starters return.

Back are Jeremy Major (8.7 ppg, 3.6 apg LY), Stacy Davis (15.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg), Atif Russell (5.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg), SHawn Olden (9.2 ppg) and Jett Raines (10.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg).  The Waves are just 2-2 to start this season, but the schedule has been tough so it's understandable.

Their only two losses came on the road as underdogs to Fresno State (66-69) and UCLA (67-81).  I was very impressed with what they did against a very solid Duquesne team yesterday in the opener of this Gulf Coast Showcase Tournament.  They won 84-70 as 3.5-point favorites behind another great defensive effort.  They have held three of their first four opponents to less than 40% shooting.

Murray State is in full-on rebuilding mode this season.  They lost head coach Steve Brohm to Iowa State in the offseason, and they lost Cameron Payne (20.2 ppg) to the NBA.  But that wasn't all they lost.  They only returned one starter this year in Jeffery Moss, losing their other four starters.

That does make their 3-1 start kind of impressive, but it's not like they've beaten anybody relevant as their three wins have come against Harris Stowe, Middle Tennessee State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.  They lost to the best team they've played with a 52-63 setback at Georgia as 8.5-point dogs.

Plays on a favorite (PEPPERDINE) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Murray State is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 vs. very good defensive teams that allow 39% or less shooting to opponents.  Pepperdine is 14-3 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Waves are 14-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  Roll with Pepperdine Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on East Carolina +14.5

The East Carolina Pirates are catching way too many points tonight against the San Diego State Aztecs.  We'll take advantage and back them as double-digit road underdogs here.

East Carolina is off to an impressive 2-1 start this season.  It beat Grambling 61-53 and Charlotte 88-74 at home to open the season.  But what really impressed me most is its 62-70 road loss as 20.5-point underdogs at nationally ranked California.  The Pirates only shot 32.7% in that game yet found a way to hang around with one of the best teams in the country.

San Diego State has no business laying 14.5 points to East Carolina with what I've seen from it so far.  The Aztecs are just 2-2 on the season with an 11-point home win over Illinois State, a 10-point home win over San Diego Christian, a 6-point home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock and a 5-point road loss to Utah.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (E CAROLINA) - slow-down team averaging 53 or less shots/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are 111-57 (66.1%) ATS since 1997.    The Aztecs are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  The Pirates are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with East Carolina Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +9

Off three straight non-covers, the Orlando Magic are showing great value today catching 9 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  This is one of the most improved teams in the league as they've actually won six of their last 10 games.

Conversely, the Cleveland Cavaliers are consistently overvalued.  That's especially the case now that they have covered two in a row with two straight double-digit wins over the Bucks and Hawks.  But they had failed to cover eight in a row prior to their back-to-back covers.

The Cavaliers were already short-handed without Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert.  But now they are also without two starters in Tomofey Mozgov and Mo Williams, so they cannot be expected to win by double-digits given their current state health-wise.

The Magic are 9-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or less over the last two seasons.  Orlando is 9-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 0-7 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Orlando.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -5

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  After a slow start, they have gone on to go 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their only two losses came on the road to arguably the two best teams in the Eastern Conference in Cleveland (97-101) and Chicago (95-96) by a combined five points.

The Milwaukee Bucks come in struggling.  They have gone 1-4 straight up in their last five games overall, which includes a blowout home loss to Boston (83-99), as well as two blowout road losses to Washington (86-115) and Cleveland (100-115).  I don't like their chances of keeping this one close against the Pacers, who come in on two days' rest.

Indiana is 32-10 straight up in its last 42 home meetings with Milwaukee.  It has won six of its last seven home meetings with the Bucks with all six wins coming by 5 points or more.

The Pacers are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Indiana is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.  Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -6.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the No. 1 ranked team in the country for good reason.  They returned four starters and five key reserves from last year's team that made it to the Sweet 16.  Even though Marcus Paige is hurt right now, this team can rely on their big men in Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks to lead the way.

The Tar Heels have opened 3-0 with three blowout home wins over Temple (91-67), Fairfield (92-65) and Wofford (78-58).  The balance on this team has been remarkable, but Meeks (16.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg) and Johnson (16.0 ppg, 11.7 rpg) have stood out the most.  Joel Berry II (15.0 ppg, 4.0 apg) has filled in nicely for Paige, and Nate Britt (13.0 ppg) is shooting 66.7% from 3-point range in the early going.

Northern Iowa is overvalued to start the season after a 31-4 campaign last year and a Missouri Valley Tournament Championship.  But the Panthers had all 5 starters back last year, and now they just have 2 returning.  They lose MVC Player of the Year Seth Tuttle (15.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and two other starters in Melvin Singleton and Deon Mitchell.  The Panthers lost to Colorado State 78-84 at home before beating Stephen F. Austin 70-60 at home.  Now they face the toughest opponent they will all season, and I see no way they are able to stay within 6.5 points of the Tar Heels.

Plays on any team (N CAROLINA) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  UNC is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +6.5

The New York Knicks are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are much-improved with all the additions they made this offseason, which has led to a 6-6 start.  Each of their last three losses have come by 7 points or less, and they have been competitive in every game they've played in.  They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Knicks are well-rested coming into this one as they've had two days off in between games.  They will be up against an Oklahoma City team that will be playing its 4th game in 6 days, and one that remains without its best player in Kevin Durtant.

The Thunder have not played well without Durant here recently.  They lost 85-100 at home to Boston and 114-122 on the road to Memphis before beating Oklahoma City 110-103 as 12.5-point home favorites.  But the Pelicans have only won one game all season, and they were playing without Anthony Davis in that game.

The Knicks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Knicks didn't win their 6th game of the season until Game 42 last year on January 19th, which just shows how much improvement they've made with the addition of Porzingis, Lopez and company.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Wright State +25

This is simply a situational play against Kentucky.  The Wildcats are coming off a huge 74-63 over Duke on Tuesday, and I expect them to be still feeling a little too good about themselves.  They won't come back with the kind of focus it takes to put away Wright State by more than 25 points.

Kentucky returned zero starters this season and is starting over.  It only beat Albany by 13 points in its opener and New Jersey Tech by 30 in its second game.  Now it is overvalued off that win over Duke.

Wright State is just 1-2 this season, but its two losses have come by 5 and 6 points to CS-Northridge and Northern Illinois, both on the road.  Wright State has had four days off in between games, while Kentucky has had just two.

Wright State returned three key starters this season in JT Yoho (15.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Joe Thomasson (10.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Michael Karena (9.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  Also back are key reserves Grant Benzinger (9.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg) and Steven Davis (7.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  So, they returned each of their top four scorers from last year, which was an injury-riddled campaign as three of their best players missed significant playing time.

Plays on road underdogs of 20 or more points, a good free throw shooting team making 72% of their free throws, who have a 45% field goal percentage defense or worse are 74-35 (67.9%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Wright State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +14

Tennessee is in a transition year under first-year head coach Rick Barnes.  The results haven't been promising in the early going with a narrow 82-78 home win over UNC-Asheville and a 67-69 road loss to Georgia Tech.  The Volunteers have no business laying 14 points to this improved Marshall team.

Marshall was in rebuilding mode last year under first-year head coach Dan D'Antoni.  It went just 11-21 overall but improved as the season went on, finishing a respectable 7-11 in C-USA play.  Marshall is the alma mater of D'Antoni, and he's trying to resurrect the program with his free-wheeling, fast-paced style that he learned as a longtime NBA assistant with the Suns, Knicks and Lakers under his brother, Mike D'Antoni.

The Herd return four starters from last year.  That includes double-double machine Ryan Taylor (14.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg) and Austin Loop (11.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg), who took well to D'Antoni's system.  Also back are Aleksa Nikolic, who started 25 games last year, and Justin Edmonds (9.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg).  Both Loops and Edmonds are great 3-point shooters who fit the system well.

D'Antoni also got some help both here and abroad in the offseason.  He nabbed Junior College transfer Terrence Thompson, who posted 12 double-doubles while helping Georgia Highlands reach the NJCAA semifinals last year.  He also got two stretch four Euros in 6-9 Aleksandar Dozic from Montenegro and 6-9 Ajdin Penava from Bosnia and Herzegovina.  He's starting to really get his pieces in place.

Tennessee is a woeful 0-13 ATS as a home favorite or pick 'em over the last two seasons, averaging 61.8 points and giving up 61.8 points in these spots.  That's a trend we'll gladly ride tonight.  Take Marshall Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +10

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team that I have my eye on coming into the season as being one of the most underrated in the country.  This is a team that went just 13-19 last year but was much better than its record would indicate as nine of its 18 losses came by 6 points or less.

Time and time again, head coach Rick Ray made mistakes in the final five minutes of games.  Enter Ben Howland, who brings a strong 401-206 career record as a head coach to Starkville.  He is going to be harder on his players than Ray was, and he's a huge upgrade in X's and O's.  His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court problems than his team's actual play.

Howland steps into a great situation with four returning starters, including three seniors in Craig Sword (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), Gavin Ware (10.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Fred Thomas (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  Also back are I.J. Ready (8.2 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Travis Daniels (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).

So, nearly the entire team returns from last year.  Plus, the Bulldogs added a blue-chip recruit in Malik Newman who is the type of talent that they haven't had since the Rick Stansbury era.  Newman is a McDonald's All-American and Top 10 national recruit.  He chose Mississippi State because he was impressed with what Howland was able to due with Russell Westbrook at UCLA.

After beating Eastern Washington 106-88 in their opener, the Bulldogs fell 72-76 at home to Southern.  That loss obviously has the betting public not wanting anything to do with this team as they are now 10-point underdogs in this Puerto Rico Tip Off against Miami.  Newmand didn't play against Eastern Washington, and he was on a minutes restriction against Southern.  But now he's a full go and should make a huge difference for this team.

Miami has four starters back as well this season and is a good team, but should not be favored by double-digits here. It opened with an 86-59 win over UTRGV and a 93-77 win over LA-Lafayette and hasn't done anything to impress me with those two results.  This is a team that shot just 42.8% last year, ranking 12th in the ACC.

Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS after a game where it forced 8 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss.  Bet Mississippi State Thursday.

15* Bulls/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5

The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight.  With the way the Suns are playing, we are getting them at a tremendous discount.  They are 5-2 at home this season, including three straight home wins over the Clippers (by 14), Nuggets (by 24) and Lakers (by 19).  Not only are they winning, they are dominating.

"The chemistry for this team is pretty good right now," coach Jeff Hornacek said. "They're all cheering each other on. A good sign for a coach to see is them all supporting each other. When you see that, good things happen."

Now they'll be playing against a Chicago Bulls team that will be without its best player in Derrick Rose, who is expected to sit out this game with an ankle injury.  The Bulls come in overvalued due to also going 3-0 in their last three games, but their three wins came against the 76ers, Hornets (by 5) and Pacers (by 1).

Chicago is 0-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  It is losing in this spot by 11.9 points per game.  Phoenix is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Suns are 48-24 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

The Minnesota Timberwolves are way overvalued right now due to incredibly going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in all road games this season.  But most of those games came in the role of a big underdog, and now they are only 3-point road dogs against the Orlando Magic tonight.

Minnesota is in an awful spot here.  It is coming off an upset win at Miami last night, so it will be playing the second of a back-to-back.  Not only that, it will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Timberwolves, which is one of the toughest spots in the NBA.  Meanwhile, the Magic have had three days off in between games after last playing at Washington on Saturday.

The Magic are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and have consistently been undervalued.  They are 5-6 SU & 8-3 ATS through 11 games.  Four of their six losses have come by 5 points or less to Washington (by 1), OKC (by 3), Chicago (by 5) and Houston (by 5).  You're not going to get this team at a discount like this for too much longer, so it's time to take advantage.

The Magic are 3-0 in their last three home games with impressive wins over the Raptors, Lakers and Jazz.  Orlando is 11-2 straight up in its last 13 meetings with Minnesota, including three straight wins by 13, 9 and 8 points.  The Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams that average 56 or more boards per game over the last three seasons.  Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to Orlando.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on IUPUI +12

It's clear to me that IUPUI is going to be one of the best teams in the Summit League this season.  The Jaguars returned four starters this year, and they nabbed three key transfers from Loyola Chicago in Nick Osborne, Matt O'Leary and Jordan Pickett.  Another transfer, former Eastern Illinois guard Darrell Combs, is playing a big role as well.

IUPUI has opened with two tough opponents.  It beat Indiana State 72-70 on the road as 8-point underdogs, and then only lost 71-75 at Marquette as 13.5-point dogs.  Combs has led the way with 18.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg and 4.0 apg through the first two games.  Osbourne (11.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and O'Leary (8.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg) are holding down the fort in the paint.

NC State came into the season overvalued after knocking off top-seeded Villanova in the NCAA Tournament last year. But the Wolfpack lost four key contributors in the offseason, and their recruiting "class" included just one person, so they have only 10 players on scholarship this year.

Trevor Lacey (15.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.5 apg) left early for the NBA and went undrafted, which was a huge blow.  Ralston Turner (12.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Kyle Washington (6.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg) also departed.  That leaves three returning starters in Cat Barber (12.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Lennard Freeman (3.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and Abdul-Malik Abu (6.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg).  Also, their lone recruit in the offseason was WVU transfer Terry Henderson, and he is out 6-8 weeks to start the season with an ankle injury.

NC State had one of the worst performances of the early college hoops season, losing 68-85 at home to William & Mary as 12.5-point favorites.  If that 17-point loss doesn't show how much the Wolfpack are in trouble this year, then I don't know what does.  They did rebound with an 88-70 home win over South Alabama as expected to cover the 15.5-point spread, but this underrated IUPUI team will give them a run for their money tonight.

IUPUI is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last two seasons.  The Jaguars are 12-4 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two years.  IUPUI is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  Bet IUPUI Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pacific -5.5

Pacific returned all five starters from a team that went just 12-19 last season.  But it was a rebuilding year last season, and now the Tigers will be a big-time sleeper in the West Coast Conference with what they have returning.

T.J. Wallace (13.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Eric Thompson (8.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Ray Bowles (6.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg), David Taylor (7.9 ppg, 1.7 rpg) and Sami Eleraky (3.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are all back.  Coach Ron Verlin added a playmaker in Maleke Haynes and a stretch four in Tonko Vuko from the junior college ranks, while also nabbing high-scoring prep star Anthony Townes.  Townes is from the same high school that sent T.J. Wallace and Ray Bowles to the Tigers.

I was impressed with the way Pacific competed in its opener, a 61-79 loss at highly-ranked Arizona, covering the spread as 23.5-point underdogs.  After shaking off the nerves with a poor first half, Pacific was only outscored 37-38 after intermission by Arizona.  That's a performance that this team can build off of leading into this game with CS-Fullerton.

Cal-State Fullerton went 9-22 last year, including 1-15 in Big West play.  It is picked to finish last in the Big West again in 2015-16.  It's easy to see why as the Titans lose four starters in Alex Harris, (15.8 ppg), Moses Morgan (8.0 ppg), Steven McClellan (6.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Josh Gentry (6.2 ppg).  Their only returning starter is Kennedy Esume (4.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  To say they are starting over would be an understatement.

Fullerton lost its opener 74-79 as 2-point underdogs at Loyola-Marymount.  Keep in mind that Loyola-Marymount went 8-23 last season.  Plus, the Lions only returned two starters from last year and are pretty much starting over.  They are picked to finish last in the West Coast Conference this season, well behind Pacific.  Coach Mike Dunlap cleaned house, yet they were still able to beat this awful Fullerton team in the opener.

Pacific is 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Fullerton.  Fullerton is 9-21 ATS in road games over the last two seasons, and 17-35-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Pacific Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +1

The New York Knicks want revenge from a 93-95 loss at Charlotte on November 11 less than a week ago.  Kristaps Porzingis hit a game-winning 3-pointer for the Knicks, but it was called off because it came after the buzzer.  I look for the Knicks to have their revenge at home this time around.

New York is clearly one of the most improved teams in the league this season.  It sits at 5-6, but all six of its losses have come by 11 points or less as it has been competitive in every game.  What really shows that the Knicks are undervalued is the fact that they've gone 7-4 ATS.  They should not be underdogs here.

Charlotte has played well at home, but it's been a different story on the road.  The Bobcats are 2-4 on the road this year with their only wins coming against depleted Mavericks and Timberwolves teams at the time they played them.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.   The home team is 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings.

New York outrebounded Charlotte 52-33 in the first meeting, and it's average of 15.5 second-chance points is one of the best marks in the NBA.  The Knicks also have one of the league's best scoring averages (41.7) from their bench this year.  Robin Lopez did a good job of limiting Al Jefferson to four points on 2-of-10 shooting in the first meeting.  Take the Knicks Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Memphis ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -4

The Oklahoma Sooners are the No. 8 ranked team in the country for good reason this year.  They return four starters, three of them seniors, from last season's squad that went 24-11 and barely missed the Elite 8.

Reigning Big 12 Player of the Year Buddy Hield is back after averaging 17.4 points and 5.4 rebounds last year.  Also back are Jordan Woodard (9.3 ppg, 3.8 apg), Ryan Spangler (9.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Isaiah Cousins (11.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Highly regarded recruits Christian James and Rashard Odomes will play immediately.  Odomes averaged 25.2 points last year as a senior at Copperas Cove High School.  James broke his leg in an AAU game last August before his senior year of high school but is fully recovered.

Josh Pastner's seat is getting very hot at Memphis.  The Tigers went just 18-14 last season and finished 10-8 in the AAC.  They lost Kuran Iverson to transfer in the middle of last season, and saw Nick King and RaShawn Powell elect to leave the program after the season was over.

But the biggest blow for the Tigers came in July, when standout sophomore forward Austin Nichols surprisingly decided to leave the program as well, ending up with Virginia.  Nichols was the AAC Rookie of the Year two years ago and first-team all-league player last season, when he led the Tigers in scoring (13.3 ppg) and was second in the league in blocked shots (3.4 bpg).

Memphis did open with a 67-49 win over Southern Miss Saturday, but that was an awful Golden Eagles team that went 9-20 last season.  Southern Miss also returned just one starter from last year and lost its two best players in Chip Armelin (15.8 ppg) and Matt Bingaya (13.8 ppg).

Memphis also allowed 21 offensive rebounds by Southern Miss in that game, which is a sign that Pastner just doesn't have control of this team.  Look for the Tigers to get outworked by the Sooners on the glass in this one.  Memphis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog, losing by an average of 13.2 points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.