Sports Picks & Predictions

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are loaded this season.  They are 18-5 SU including 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 11.8 points per game.  The Timberwolves will make easy work of the Indiana Pacers tonight.

While the Timberwolves are fully healthy, the Pacers could be without MVP candidate Tyrese Haliburton tonight.  They are already without PG Andrew Nembhard and PF Jalen Smith.  Haliburton suffered a knee injury in a 123-137 loss at Washington last night.  Now the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days.

This is a tired Pacers team after making it to the championship game of the in-season tournament.  That has started to show in their last two games losing by 14 as 6.5-point dogs in Milwaukee and then getting upset by 14 as 8.5-point favorites in Washington last night, failing to cover the spread by 22.5 points.

The Timberwolves will be the much fresher team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are also the much better defensive team ranking 1st in the NBA in defensive rating while the Pacers are 28th.  Plays against road underdogs (Indiana) - off two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that's off a road win by 10 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Timberwolves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Pacers.  Indiana is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher.  Minnesota is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games after a blowout win by 15 points or more.  Bet the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Alabama/Creighton FOX ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +7.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on Alabama.  They have gone 2-3 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule.  The three losses came to Ohio State, Clemson and Purdue.  The Crimson Tide have now faced the 21st-toughest schedule in the entire country and are battle-tested to say the least.

Creighton is good at beating up on the weak.  But the Bluejays have struggled in a couple games this season that are very concerning.  They lost outright 69-48 as 9-point favorites on a neutral to Colorado State and outright 79-64 as 13.5-point favorites on a neutral to UNLV.  They got blown out in both of those games.

Now this is a tough spot for Creighton having just two days since the UNLV game to get ready to face Alabama.  Meanwhile, Alabama has had an entire week to get ready for Creighton after having the last six days off since a tough 92-86 loss to Purdue on a neutral.  Many consider Purdue the best team in the country.

Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after making 10 or more 3-pointers in consecutive games.  Alabama ranks 1st in adjusted offense, 6th in effective FG percentage and 5th in 3-point percentage this season.  Creighton hasn't faced a team as good as Alabama yet, and they shouldn't be 7.5-point favorites here.  

Nate Oats is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of the Crimson Tide.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

20* Arizona/Purdue No-Brainer on Arizona PK

The Arizona Wildcats look like the best team in the country and continue to lack the respect they deserves.  The Wildcats are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 30.1 points per game on average.  They have the big men inside that will finally give Purdue trouble.

We've seen Arizona already handle a pair of Big Ten teams in Wisconsin 98-73 and Michigan State 74-68.  The Wildcats also went on the road and beat Duke 78-73, handing the Blue Devils their first loss at Cameron Indoor in a couple seasons.

Purdue lost 92-88 (OT) to Northwestern.  The Boilermakers have had to escape with several victories, beating Gonzaga by 10, Tennessee by 4, Marquette by 3 and Alabama by 6.  Their luck runs out today against a superior team here in Arizona, which ranks 2nd in adjusted defense and 6th in adjusted offense, the only team to rank in the top 6 in both categories this season.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Utah State -2

Utah State is loaded this season.  The Aggies are 10-1 and outscoring opponents by 17.0 points per game.  This will basically be a home game for them being played in Salt Lake City, UT.

San Francisco is 8-3 this season and has not fared well when stepping up in class.  The Dons have losses to Boise State, Grand Canyon and Arizona State.  Utah State is a team that is on Grand Canyon's level and better than both Boise State and Arizona State.

Utah State is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 neutral court games.  The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. teams that make 48% of their shots or better.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Clemson/Memphis ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -2.5

The Memphis Tigers are really starting to play well under Penny Hardaway.  He always gets the top recruits so it can take some time for his team to gel.  But they have certainly shown those signs of gelling of late, beating VCU 85-80 as 2-point road favorites and upsetting Texas A&M 81-75 as 8.5-point road dogs in their last two games coming in.

Memphis has faced the 11th-toughest schedule in the entire country to this point.  The Tigers have only had two home games all season.  Now they finally get to play at home for the first time since November 17th, and they will be excited to do so.  They have unbeaten Clemson coming to town.

I think it's telling that Clemson is the unbeaten and ranked team here and actually is an underdog at unranked Memphis.  I think Memphis proves it is the better team here.  The Tigers are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet Memphis Saturday.

15* Baylor/Michigan State FOX ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -3

The Baylor Bears are one of the best teams in the country and oddsmakers are failing to catch up to how good they are.  Baylor is 9-0 SU & 7-1 ATS this season.  They beat Auburn and Florida on a neutral and now they will take down this overrated Michigan State team today.  Baylor ranks 2nd in adjusted offense and 44th in adjusted defense.

Michigan State is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS this season and consistently overvalued.  The Spartans were upset at home by James Madison as 16.5-point favorites in the opener, which would be a sign of things to come.  They lost by 9 to Duke on a neutral, by 6 to Arizona, by 13 at home to Wisconsin and also by 7 at Nebraska.

While Baylor ranks 1st in the country in 3-point percentage, Michigan State ranks 301st.  The Spartans shoot just 29.5% from 3 as a team.  That shooting discrepancy will come into play here in a big way and will be a key reason why the Bears run away with this one.

Michigan State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after making 88% of their free throws or better last game.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana State -13

Indiana State is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Sycamores are 9-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming on the road against Alabama.  They are outscoring opponents by 17.6 points per game on the season despite facing the 140th-ranked schedule.

Ball State is 8-2 but that has come against the 319th-ranked schedule.  Both losses came in two of their three true road games and both were in blowout fashion.  They lost 74-50 at Evansville and 90-64 at Arkansas-Little Rock.  Their lone road win came at Detroit by 3, and Detroit is 0-10 this season.  This will be by far the toughest test of the season for the Cardinals.

Indiana State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a double-digit favorite.  The Sycamores are 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games off a win by 10 points or more.  Indiana State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after making 13 or more 3-pointers last game.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

20* Kansas/Indiana CBS No-Brainer on Indiana +8

The Indiana Hoosiers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They should not be catching 8 points at home to the Kansas Jayhawks today in what is going to be a hostile atmosphere for the visitors.

Indiana is 4-0 at home this season, which includes a 65-53 win over Maryland as 2-point favorites.  The Jayhawks are a very motivated team coming off their worst loss of the season to Auburn on a neutral.  Their only other loss came to defending champion UConn on a neutral.

Kansas will be playing its first true road game of the season.  The Jayhawks got to host UConn and were fortunate to come away with a victory.  They are also coming off a 73-64 home win over Missouri as a 13-point favorite.  Off those two big wins recently, I don't think we get their best effort today, especially in their first road game.

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games on the season.  It is actually outscoring opponents by 13.3 points per game in this spot.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - after losing by 18 or more points ATS last game, in non-conference games between two teams from power conferences are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a 'buy low' spot on the Hoosiers off that loss to Auburn.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -9.5

I love the spot for the Bradley Braves.  They opened 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS this season, but have since gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall against a brutal schedule.  They suffered road losses to Murray State and Akron plus a home loss to Indiana State, which looks to be one of the best mid-major teams in the entire country.

Now I know we are going to get a very inspired effort from Bradley tonight to try and end this skid.  The Braves take a big step down in class here against Cleveland State, and a double-digit blowout in their favor should be the result.

Cleveland State is 6-5 SU & 5-4-1 ATS this season.  But the Vikings have gone 0-5 SU in all true/neutral road games this season.  They lost by 7 at Eastern Michigan, by 25 at Youngstown State, by 13 at St. Mary's and by 6 at Kent State.  And while Bradley has faced the 43rd-toughest schedule in the country, Cleveland State has faced the 216th.  This big difference in SOS is a big reason I'm on the Braves.

Bradley is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite or PK.  The Braves are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.  The Braves are 8-0 ATS in their last eight non-conference home games.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the entire country.  Bet Bradley Friday.

20* Lakers/Spurs ESPN No-Brainer on San Antonio +7.5

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge here after losing 122-119 to the Lakers on Wednesday.  Now they get to play the Lakers here two days later and go from 3.5-point dogs to 7.5-point dogs tonight.

While the Spurs will be motivated for revenge, the Lakers will have a hard time getting up emotionally to beat the Spurs by margin again tonight.  The Lakers just won the In-Season Tournament, and it's no surprise they are 0-2 ATS in their first two games out of the tournament as they just aren't as motivated to win these regular season games.  Don't be surprised if they lose outright tonight.

The Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season and playing competitive basketball with their last nine games all decided by 15 points or less, including six by single-digits.  Darvin Ham is 6-18 ATS off a road win as the coach of the Lakers.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

20* NBA Situational GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Orlando Magic have a big rest advantage over the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Magic have had the last three days off while the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 116-107 win over the Cavaliers last night.  This will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Celtics.  They have had some guys banged up and playing through injury, so don't be surprised if they rest one or multiple starters tonight.

The Magic have been grossly undervalued all season especially of late.  The Magic are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are nearly at full strength and one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and they will have an advantage over the Celtics when they go to their bench, which they will need to given how tired their starters are right now.

Orlando has absolutely owned Boston in recent meetings.  In fact, the Magic are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with four outright upsets as 13.5, 10.5, 7.5 and 5.5-point dogs.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings as well with their lone SU loss coming by 6 points.  

Boston is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are better than the Sacramento Kings this season and should not be underdogs to them, even on the road.  The Thunder are 15-7 SU & 15-6-1 ATS this season and outscoring their opponents by 7.6 points per game.

The Kings are 13-9 SU & 12-10 ATS this season and actually getting outscored by 0.6 points per game.  The Thunder rank 3rd in net rating (+7.6) which combines their offensive and defensive rating.  The Kings rank 20th (-0.5).

The Thunder are fully healthy right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They weren't fully healthy when they lost 105-98 in Sacramento in their first meeting this season.  I know they want revenge on the Kings, especially since they will be reminded that they have lost seven consecutive meetings in this series overall.  

That's why we will get a max effort from OKC tonight, and it will be good enough to pull off the outright upset.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets have been grossly undervalued all season.  They are 13-10 SU & 17-5-1 ATS this season.  They are the definition of team basketball with any of their five starters that can beat you on any given night, and also one of the best benches in the league.

This line has been adjusted up too much for the fact that the Nets are on the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning outright at Phoenix against a Suns team that had Durant, Booker and Beal on the court at the same time for the first time all season.  But this will be just their 3rd game in 6 days, so they should still be pretty fresh.

There will be no letdown here for the Nets facing the defending champion Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets have been grossly overvalued after winning that title last year.  They are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They will be without starter Kentavious-Caldwell Pope tonight, and their lack of depth this season is a big reason for their struggles.

The Nets are 8-1 ATS when the total is 230 or higher this season.  Asking the Nuggets to win this game by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Nets Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5

I love the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They get a chance at quick revenge here after losing 113-120 in Boston on Tuesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge here just two days later.  The Cavaliers will clearly be the more motivated team, while the Celtics will have a hard time getting up to beat this team again.

The Celtics aren't really blowing anyone out here of late.  They have just one win by more than 10 points in their last 12 games.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us in a letdown spot is asking too much.

Keep in mind the Celtics made 20 more free throws than the Cavaliers did in that last meeting and still only won by 7.  They got the benefit of the whistles in that game, and I don't see that being the case again.

Cleveland is actually 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Boston with just one loss by more than 9 points.  That one loss came by only 10 points as well.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the Celtics pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - after scoring 120 points or more in two consecutive games are 192-124 (60.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home teams (Boston) - who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game in the month of December are 31-11 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Creighton -12.5

The Creighton Bluejays got a wake up call with a bad loss to Colorado State on November 23rd.  That's a really good Colorado State team, but it refocused them and we have seen what they are capable of when locked in in their three games since.

Indeed, the Bluejays are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall winning 79-65 as 8-point road favorites at Oklahoma State, 89-60 as 4-point road favorites at Nebraska and 109-64 as 31-point home favorites over Central Michigan.  I fully expect another blowout win in Creighton's favor in this neutral court game actually called the Jack Jones Classic at Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, NV.  No, I'm not the actual sponsor.

UNLV has been overvalued all season off to a 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS start this season.  The Rebels lost a lot in the transfer portal.  Their three wins this season have come against Stetson, Pepperdine and Akron.  They were actually upset 85-71 by Stetson as 20-point home favorites in their opener, a sign of things to come for this team.  They lost by 8 as 3-point dogs to FSU on a neutral and by 17 as 3-point favorites to Richmond on a neutral.  Now Creighton will be by far the best team they have faced this season, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Doug McDermott is 172-133 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Creighton.  McDermott is 19-6 ATS following two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more as a head coach.  Bet Creighton Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They have lost to the Pacers in both meetings this season and both were away from home.  That includes their 128-119 loss to the Pacers in the in-season tournament that knocked them out in the semifinals.  It's safe to say they want revenge, and we will get their best effort tonight as they get them at home for the first time this season.

The Pacers were in a letdown spot after losing to the Lakers in the finals of the in-season tournament, but unfortunately the Detroit Pistons haven't won a game in over a month and couldn't take advantage.  The Bucks will take advantage, and I think this is where we finally see the letdown for the Pacers, especially after just beating the Bucks a week ago.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat them in this game as they were in the in-season tournament.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8

I love the spot for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They have a chance at quick revenge here after losing 114-116 to the Heat on Monday night.  Now they travel to Miami to face the Heat here just two days later on Wednesday.  I like them to stay within this inflated number at the very least and possibly pull off the upset.

The Heat are in no position to be laying 8 points to the Hornets right now.  They are without Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Haywood Highsmith.  They are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.  Adebayo is arguably their most important player, at least even with Jimmy Butler.

The Hornets have been playing some very competitive basketball with four of their last five games decided by 6 points or fewer.  They rarely get blown out by the Heat, either.  The Hornets are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  All four were decided by 6 points or less with two outright upsets by the Hornets.

Miami is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Heat are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  Miami is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games when playing against a bad team (25-40% winning percentage).  They Heat are the classic team that plays to the level of their competition, and they won't be motivated at all to beat the Hornets for a 2nd time in 3 days.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Monmouth +15

Monmouth has been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  The Hawks are 5-4 SU & 6-2-1 ATS this season with just one loss by more than 15 points despite playing the 99th-toughest schedule of 362 teams in the country.  That came to Princeton, which is 9-1 this season.

The Hawks lost by 11 at George Mason as 11-point dogs, upset West Virginia by 8 as 14.5-point road dogs, upset Belmont by 9 as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral and only lost by 4 at Cornell as a 12.5-point road dog.  I think they can hang with Seton Hall on the road tonight.

Seton Hall has been grossly overvalued here of late.  The Pirates have gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 8 to USC at 4-point dogs on a neutral, lost by 13 to Iowa as 1.5-point dogs on a neutral, only beat Northeastern by 13 as 15-point home favorites, lost by 18 at Baylor as 11-point dogs and lost by 7 at home to Rutgers as 3.5-point favorites.

When you look at what Rutgers and Iowa have done recently, those losses look even worse.  Keep in mind they also only beat St. Peter's by 11 as 17-point favorites at home earlier this season.  The only three games they covered were against overmatched competition in Farleigh Dickinson, Albany and Wagner.  Monmouth is not overmatched here.  Bet Monmouth Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +11.5

The Chicago Bulls have quietly gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall since losing Zach LaVine to injury.  It's no surprise nobody wants to trade for this guy.  The Bulls are playing better team basketball now and it is paying off.

The Bulls upset the Bucks 120-113 as 9.5-point dogs, upset the Pelicans 124-118 as 3-point dogs, crushed the Hornets 111-100 as 5-point favorites and rolled to a 121-112 victory at San Antonio as 2-point favorites.  Now the Bulls are catching too many points against the Bucks again tonight.

The Bucks will have questionable motivation here after being on the big stage and losing in the semifinals to the Pacers in the in-season tournament in their last game.  They won't be nearly as motivated here in their first game back from the tournament, which will help the Bulls keep this one close.

The Bulls are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bucks which have all six been decided by 13 points or fewer, so they tend to take the Bucks to the wire every time.  Billy Donovan is 42-24 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as a head coach.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis +8

The Memphis Tigers are catching too many points against the Texas A&M Aggies today.  Memphis just reloads under Penny Hardaway and has been impressive this season.  The Tigers are 6-2 this season with their only losses coming to Villanova and Ole Miss.

The Tigers have been through the gauntlet once against testing themselves in the non-conference with the 28th-toughest schedule in the country to this point.  Their highlights have been a 70-55 upset road win at Missouri as 3-point dogs, a 71-67 upset win over Michigan on a neutral as 1-point dogs and a 84-79 upset win over Arkansas on a neutral as 1-point dogs.  They ran out of gas against Villanova playing for a 3rd consecutive day.  They only lost by 3 at unbeaten Ole Miss, and they won by 5 at VCU as 2-point favorites.

Texas A&M already has two losses this season as well with a 96-89 loss to FAU on a neutral and a 59-47 road loss at Virginia as 3-point dogs.  They played close games against Ohio State, Oreal Roberts and Iowa State that were all decided by 8 points or fewer, and I think this one is decided by 8 points or fewer as well.

Memphis is 32-16 ATS in its last 48 games as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Tigers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Texas A&M is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 games following a home win where they scored 85 points or more.  Penny Hardaway is 28-15 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Memphis.  Bet Memphis Sunday.

20* Colorado/Miami ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Miami PK

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 16.5 points, Norchad Omier averaging 16.1 points and a team-high 9.8 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 13.5 points and 4.1 assists.

Bensley Joseph (9.1 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.1 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and is a Swiss army knife, doing a little bit of everything for this team.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 14.8 points and 4.4 rebounds.  This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.

Miami is 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS this season with their lone loss coming on the road at Kentucky.  Now they are on a neutral where they have thrived in recent seasons making deep runs into the NCAA Tournament.  They take on a Colorado team that is getting too much respect from the books.

Colorado is 6-2 this season with 5-0 at home against weak competition and 1-2 in road/neutral games.  They only beat Richmond by 5 as 9-point favorites on a neutral, lost outright to Florida State by 6 as 6-point favorites on a neutral, and lost by 5 at Colorado State as 3.5-point dogs.  The Buffaloes have some of the biggest home/road splits in all of college basketball for years.  This will be an early body clock game for them tipping at 2:00 EST, and they aren't used to playing this early in the day.

Colorado is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a win by 10 points or more.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after playing a home game.  The Hurricanes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet Miami Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Irvine +10

UC-Irvine is one of the better mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters are 6-3 SU & 6-2 ATS this season.  They pulled the 70-60 upset as 12.5-point dogs at USC.  They did lose by 4 at Duquesne as 5.5-point dogs and by 10 at Utah State as 6.5-point dogs, so they have been through the gauntlet.  They have faced the 25th-toughest schedule in the entire country and won't be phased by San Diego State.

The Aztecs came into this season way overvalued after making the championship game of the NCAA Tournament last year.  San Diego State is 7-2 SU but 2-6 ATS this season.  They are fortunate to have escaped with a bunch of close wins over bad teams.  They lost at BYU by 9 in and only beat Cal San Diego by 1 as 13.5-point road favorites in their only two true road games.  They also failed to cover in a 12-point win over Long Beach State, a 3-point win over Washington and a 9-point win over California.  They only beat Division II Point Loma by 20 at home prior to that 1-point escape at Cal San Diego.  They were upset by Grand Canyon last time out.  They have no business being double-digit favorites here.

UC-Irvine is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Anteaters are 35-12 ATS in their last 47 road games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

15* St. Mary's/Colorado State CBSSN ANNIHILATOR on St. Mary's +5.5

A lot was expected of St. Mary's coming into the season.  But after a slow start with some mixed results against a brutal schedule that ranks 40th in the country, I think the time is now to 'buy low' on the Gaels.  They have a chance to get a signature win here against a Colorado State team that is overvalued after a 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS start this season.

We saw Colorado State fail to live up to expectations last game, only beating Denver 90-80 as 20.5-pint favorites.  They have been through the gauntlet with Creighton, Colorado and Washington in their three games prior.  They won't have much left in the tank for St. Mary's, especially since they are missing two of their best players.

Colordado State is without Jalen Lake (7.7 PPG) and Josiah Strong (8.5 PPG), who both got injured recently and aren't expected to return until January.  The Rams will be short-handed until then, and now is a good time to fade them especially since they are getting a lot of hype with their unbeaten record.

Colorado State is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 home games following three or more consecutive overs.  The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after forcing 11 or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games.  St. Mary's is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss.  Bet St. Mary's Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma -3.5

Porter Moser is building a juggernaut at Oklahoma like he did at Loyola-Chicago before.  The fruits of his labor are paying off this season as the Sooners are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season.  They have six home wins all by 21 points or more, plus impressive neutral court wins over both Iowa (79-67) and USC (72-70).

This won't be a home game but it might as well be played in Tulsa, Oklahoma.  They take on an Arkansas team that just hasn't fare well at all away from home.  The Razorbacks are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in neutral court games this season.  They only beat Stanford by 3 as 6.5-point favorites, were upset by 5 by Memphis and were crushed by 15 by North Carolina.  The Razorbacks are getting too much respect for their recent upset home win over Duke.

Arkansas is 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Razorbacks are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. explosive offensive teams scoring 84 or more points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* Indiana/Auburn ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7

The Indiana Hoosiers have been impressive this season.  They are 7-1 with their only loss coming against defending national champion Connecticut.  They have been very impressive in their last three games beating Harvard by 13 as 7-point favorites on a neutral, topping Maryland by 12 as 2-point home favorites and upsetting Michigan 78-75 as 6.5-point road dogs.

Auburn is 5-2 this season but none of the five wins were that impressive as they came against overmatched competition.  They also lost 69-64 at Appalachian State as a 7.5-point favorite and have been favored all seven games, so they have been overvalued.  They lost 88-82 to Baylor on a neutral in the opener.

This one will be played on a neutral as well.  Auburn is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games away from home following an upset loss as a road favorite.  Bruce Pearl is 4-12 ATS after forcing the last opponent to commit 8 or fewer turnovers as the coach of Auburn.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Grand Canyon +5.5

Grand Canyon is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Antelopes are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS this season.  They beat San Diego State and San Francisco already this season.  And now they will give Liberty all they can handle.

Liberty is 7-2 SU & 6-2 ATS and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers from what they did against some soft competition.  When they stepped up in class they lost 83-58 to Florida Atlantic and didn't look like they belonged at all.  They followed that up with a 76-67 upset loss to Charleston.

Liberty is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games with a total set of 140 to 149.9 points.  Grand Canyon is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game.  Bryce Drew is 16-7 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Antelopes.  Drew is 9-2 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points per game as their head coach.  Bet Grand Canyon Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles PK

The Denver Nuggets are just kind of going through the motions right now after winning the NBA title last year.  With that title comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to.  The Nuggets are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

The Los Angeles Clippers have gotten healthy and played up to their potential here in recent weeks with their loaded roster.  They are 6-3 SU in their last nine games overall with wins over the Warriors, Kings and Mavericks in their last three victories.

Now the Clippers have their sights set on revenge after losing each of their first two meetings this season with the Nuggets.  They only lost by 3 in Denver with a fully healthy Nuggets team.  But they were upset as 10.5-point home favorites when they took the short-handed Nuggets lightly.  They won't be taking them lightly tonight wanting revenge.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +2.5

Not much was expected of the Minnesota Golden Gophers coming into this season which has made them an undervalued commodity.  The Gophers are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS this season with their three losses coming to Missouri by 2 as 2.5-point dogs, to San Francisco by 18 as 5-point road dogs and to Ohio State by 10 as 13-point road dogs.

The Gophers have been particularly tough at home going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS with their lone loss coming to Missouri by 2 after blowing a 20-point lead in the 2H.  Home-court advantage is huge in the Big Ten Conference in particular.

Nebraska has played seven of its first eight games at home this season with the lone neutral court game coming against Oregon State.  The Huskers are coming off their first loss of the season, a 60-89 blowout home loss to Creighton.  Now they hit the road for the first time this season, and they should not be favored over Minnesota.  The Huskers have benefited from playing the 355th-ranked schedule out of 362 teams in the entire country.

Nebraska is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games after going under the total in its previous game.  The Huskers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or lower.  Bet Minnesota Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Brooklyn Nets +4

The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 10-9 SU & 14-4-1 ATS in their 19 games this season.  They are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with the two losses coming by a combined 3 points.

One of those losses came 145-147 in Atlanta on November 22nd, so you can bet they will be out for revenge against the Hawks tonight.  The Hawks won't have Jalen Johnson (14.1 PPG, 42.5% 3-pointers) this time around as he is out with injury.

While the Nets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA, the Hawks are one of the most overrated.  They have gone 9-10 SU & 5-14 ATS in their 19 games this season and play zero defense.  The Hawks are 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have really struggled since losing Johnson with their last three losses all coming by double-digits and their lone win coming by 2 points over the lowly Spurs.

Atlanta is 1-8 ATS after playing a road game this season.  Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or higher this season.  The Hawks are 1-8 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or better this season.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers -4

The Cleveland Cavaliers are finally healthy with the Big 4 of Mitchell, Garland, Allen and Mobley and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are laying too short of a number here at home against the Orlando Magic tonight.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Magic.  They just had their 9-game winning streak snapped with a 101-129 road loss at Brooklyn last time out.  I always like fading teams the game after having a significant winning streak snapped because there always tends to be a hangover effect.  They aren't as motivated any more because they don't have a winning streak to protect.  But they are still getting a ton of respect due to winning nine of their last 10.

Cleveland owns Orlando, going 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings with both home wins coming by double-digits.  Cleveland is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Orlando with all four wins coming by 6 points or more and three by double-digits.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

20* Suns/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +2

The Phoenix Suns want revenge from two narrow losses to the Lakers by a combined 8 points already this season.  They lost 95-100 as 6.5-point road dogs on October 26th and 122-119 as 2-point home favorites on November 10th.  There will get their revenge tonight with an outright victory.

The difference is that the Suns did not have Devin Booker for either of those first two meetings due to injury.  Booker means everything to this team averaging 27.9 points per game, 8.4 assists per game and 5.8 boards per game.  When he and KD (31.0 PPG) have been on the court at the same time, this team has been dangerous.

The Lakers are 0-8 ATS following an ATS win this season.  They are actually getting outscored by 16.4 points per game in this spot this season.  Bet the Suns Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Baylor -11

Scott Drew has yet another juggernaut at Baylor.  The Bears are 8-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season as they have been grossly undervalued.  They have beaten the likes of Auburn and Florida on a neutral already this season to test themselves, so they will be ready for Seton Hall tonight.

Seton Hall is 5-2 SU & 3-4 ATS this season.  They failed to cover against St. Peter's and Northeastern in lackluster home wins by 11 and 13 points, respectively.  They tested themselves on a neutral against both USC and Iowa and did not fare well.  They lost by 8 to USC and by 13 to Iowa.  Now this will be their first true road game of the season against the best opponent they have faced by far, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Baylor has 10 days off after this so they should be fully focused.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after three straight games forcing 14 or fewer turnovers.  Drew is 19-7 ATS after scoring 85 points or more in two straight games as the coach of Baylor.  Bet Baylor Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Grand Canyon +2.5

Grand Canyon is 6-1 this season and one of the best mid-majors in the country.  They are ready to take down a team like San Diego State, which came into this season way overvalued after making the championship game of the NCAA Tournament last year.  They remain overvalued tonight as road favorites over Grand Canyon.

San Diego State is 7-1 SU but 2-5 ATS this season.  They are fortunate to have escaped with a bunch of close wins over bad teams.  They lost at BYU by 9 in and only beat Cal San Diego by 1 as 13.5-point road favorites in their only two true road games.  They also failed to cover in a 12-point win over Long Beach State, a 3-point win over Washington and a 9-point win over California.  They only beat Division II Point Loma by 20 at home prior to that 1-point escape at Cal San Diego.  Their luck runs out tonight.

Brian Dutcher is 2-10 ATS in road games off a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of San Diego State.  Bryce Drew is 36-19 ATS in home games off a home win as a head coach.  Bet Grand Canyon Tuesday.

15* Providence/Oklahoma ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -4.5

Porter Moser is building a juggernaut at Oklahoma like he did at Loyola-Chicago before.  The fruits of his labor are paying off this season as the Sooners are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS this season.  They have five home wins all by 21 points or more, plus impressive neutral court wins over both Iowa (79-67) and USC (72-70).

Providence is 7-1 this season as well but has played five games at home against weak competition.  The two neutral court games weren't impressive at all as they lost outright to Kansas State and only beat Georgia by 7.  Both those teams aren't very good this season.  This will be by far their toughest test yet, and it will be their first true road game as well.

Providence is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after playing five consecutive games as a favorite.  Oklahoma is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

20* FAU/Illinois ESPN No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic -2

Florida Atlantic made the Final 4 last year and brought back all 5 starters from that team.  You would think this team would have been overvalued given that's the case, but it has been completely opposite.  FAU has been exceeding expectations again going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS with impressive wins over Butler, Loyola-Chicago, Texas A&M, VA Tech, Liberty and Charleston.

FAU ranks 7th in adjusted offense and 37th in adjusted defense.  The Owls have played the 52nd-toughest schedule in the country.  And the strength of schedule discrepancy between them and Illinois (345th) is a big reason I'm taking the Owls tonight.

Illinois is 6-1 this season but against a weak schedule.  They lost their toughest game, a 71-64 home loss to Marquette.  They have a road win over Rutgers, which is way down this season.  And their five home wins have come against teams that are ranked 145th or worse, including four against teams ranked 274th or worse.

FAU is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  The Owls are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games following three consecutive non-conference games.  Oddsmakers just can't catch up to how good this team really is, and they failed to do so again tonight.  Bet Florida Atlantic Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on North Dakota State -2.5

I love the spot for North Dakota State tonight.  They want revenge from a 78-65 road loss at San Jose State in their last game on November 27th.  They have been thinking about that game for a week and have had the last six days off to rest and prepare to beat the Spartans in the rematch at home this time around.

San Jose State doesn't have that same luxury.  They have actually played two road games since that home win over North Dakota State.  The Spartans lost at Cal Poly outright as 9-point favorites on November 29th, lost by 17 at Montana as 3-point dogs on November 2nd, and now they have just one day to get ready for San Jose State.  They will be playing in their 4th different city in 8 days and are running on fumes right now.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bison.

North Dakota State has played a road-heavy schedule this season with six of their first eight games away from home.  They did beat Montana 78-69 as 8.5-point road dogs, which is the same team that just beat San Jose State by 17.  In their two home games they rolled to 27 and 29-point victories.  I think they roll again tonight given the revenge factor and the massive rest and preparation advantage.  Bet North Dakota State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Illinois State -1.5

It's time to 'sell high' on Murray State off their upset home win over Bradly as 3.5-point dogs.  Bradley was looking ahead to their game against Indiana State.  Murray State has not been good beating Tennessee Tech by 6 as 12.5-point home favorites, losing to WKU by 5 as 1-point home favorites, losing to App State by 10 as 2.5-point neutral dogs and losing to UNC-Wilmington by 2 as 5.5-point neutral dogs.

Now Murray State will finally have to play their first true road game this season.  Illinois State has only played two home games this season and won both.  They also won a true road game at Illinois Chicago outright by 5 as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  That was a very impressive win.  They upset Long Beach State by 9 as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral as well.  I like what I've seen from this team enough to know they will cover as a short home favorite here.

Murray State is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games following an ATS win.  The Redbirds are the way better defensive team holding opponent 9.1 points per game below their season averages this year.  Murray State only holds opponents to 1.1 points per game below their season averages.  Bet Illinois State Sunday.

15* Clemson/Pittsburgh ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -1.5

The Clemson Tigers are in a massive letdown spot today.  They are coming off a 85-77 upset road win as 8-point underdogs at Alabama on November 28th.  Now I expect them to fall flat on their faces at Pittsburgh this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the Panthers will be highly motivated for a victory after getting upset by Missouri at home as 7-point favorites last time out.  So this is also a 'buy low' spot on the Panthers off an upset loss, and a 'sell high' spot on the Tigers off an upset win.

Clemson is 7-18 ATS in its lat 25 road games following a road win.  Brad Brownell is 2-9 ATS in road games off a road win as the coach of Clemson.  Pittsburgh is 29-12 ATS in its last 41 games overall.  The Panthers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Jeff Capel is 18-7 ATS vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Panthers will hand the Tigers their first loss of the season today.  Bet Pittsburgh Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +2

The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson.  It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries.

Indeed, the Blazers have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs and won outright at Cleveland 103-95 as 12-point dogs.

The Blazers aren't just covering they are destroying these spreads.  They have covered their last four games by a combined 62 points.  Now they are somehow underdogs to the Utah Jazz, who are without their two best players in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.

It's no wonder the Jazz are struggling going 2-6 SU in their last eight games overall.  It's also no wonder their offense is broken as they have scored 105 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.  They are coming off a 90-101 loss at Minnesota which followed up a 91-105 loss at Memphis.

Utah is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers want revenge from their 132-142 loss at Miami on Thursday.  They don't have to wait long to get their revenge as they play again here just two days later Saturday.  The difference is the Heat will be missing their best defender and arguably their most important player in Bam Adebayo for the rematch.

While the Pacers will be locked in wanting revenge, the Heat will relax a little not being overly excited to try and beat this team again.  I think things will come even easier for the Pacers than they did in that first meeting without Adebayo.  The Pacers rank 1st in offensive rating this season and 1st in adjusted tempo.  Miami doesn't want to try to defend these guys again.

Miami is 14-27 ATS in its last 41 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 41-11 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

The Detroit Pistons not winning a single game in November has made some headlines lately.  Their 17-game losing streak dates back to October 30th.  With this media attention comes an opportunity for us to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  They will be desperate to end this skid tonight.

The Pistons were competitive in their 112-118 loss at New York last time out as 14.5-point underdogs, and they have been more competitive at home than on the road.  Asking the Cavaliers to win this game by double-digits on the road to beat us is asking too much.

The Cavaliers are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 33 to Miami at home, lost by 6 to the Lakers at home, beat the Raptors by just 3 at home and lost outright to the Blazers by 8 as 12-point home favorites.  They certainly aren't playing well enough to warrant being this big of a favorite on the road tonight.

Detroit is as healthy as they have been all season with both Ausar Thompson and Bojan Bogdanovic upgraded to probable tonight.  The time is now to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Toledo -3.5

I love the spot for Toledo today.  After opening the season with blowout home wins over Detroit 94-60 as 15.5-point favorites and LA-Lafayette 87-78 as 7.5-point favorites, they have been on the road since November 11th against some great teams.

Toledo upset Wright State 78-77 as 2.5-point road dogs, then hung with New Mexico in a 92-84 loss, UC-Irvine in a 77-71 loss and Indiana State in a 76-74 loss all on neutral courts.  All four of those teams rank in the Top 120 in the country in KenPom, including the last three 76th or higher.  It's safe to say Toledo is going to be highly motivated for a victory when they return home for the first time in three weeks.

While Toledo has played the 47th-toughest schedule in the country, George Mason has faced the 260th.  That's a big reason GMU is 6-1 this season and overvalued now as a result.  Five of the seven games came at home against Monmouth (231), Austin Peay (272), Cornell (110), East Carolina (209) and NJIT (352).  They only beat South Dakota State (124) by 2 on a neutral and were upset by Charlotte (134) by 5 on a neutral.  Not only will this be the first true road game for George Mason, but it will also be the best opponent they have faced yet this season.  I don't expect it to go well for them.

Toledo is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite or PK and the Rockets have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  The Rockets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -4.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 120-114 loss at Golden State on Thursday.  Now they get the Warriors at home in the rematch so they don't have to wait long to get their revenge.

The Clippers were at a big disadvantage in that game at Golden State because they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a shootout 131-117 road win at Sacramento the night before.  They didn't have much left in the tank and were still competitive.  Now, after having Friday off, I expect a much better effort from them in the rematch.

The Warriors won't be nearly as motivated to beat this team again.  Plus, the Warriors are missing two key players in Chris Paul and Gary Payton II, and Andrew Wiggins is questionable.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are fully healthy for this one and primed for a big effort.

The Warriors are 20-36 ATS in their last 56 road games.  Golden State is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games after going over the total in two consecutive games.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Enough said.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Oakland -5

Oakland is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its eight games this season and remains grossly undervalued.  You could tell this team was going to be good when they gave two good Big Ten opponents all they could handle in their first two games of the season.

The Golden Grizzlies only lost by 6 at Ohio State as 19.5-point dogs and by 11 at Illinois as 24-point dogs.  They blasted Bowling Green 81-62 in their lone home game this season as 2.5-point favorites.  They only lost by 8 to Drake on a neutral as 9-point dogs, upset Loyola-Marymount by 5 as 6-point dogs, upset Marshall by 7 as 2.5-point dogs.  They then upset Xavier as 15-point road dogs and avoided the letdown by crushing Detroit by 15 as 6.5-point road favorites.

Now Oakland is back home for only the 2nd time all season.  Now they will have no problem getting back motivated to play a conference game against IPFW, who looks like one of their biggest threats to win this conference.  However, IPFW's 7-1 start is more fool's gold than anything because they have played such a soft schedule.

Indeed, while Oakland has played the 27th toughest schedule int he country, IPFW has played the 333rd-ranked schedule out of 363 teams.  That's the reason they were 7-1 more than anything.  In their toughest game this season, they lost 76-60 as 13.5-point dogs at San Francisco.  I would argue Oakland is the best team they will have played yet this season, and it won't go well for them.  Bet Oakland Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5

The Orlando Magic have been the most profitable team to back in the NBA this season at 13-5 SU & 15-3 ATS.  But with that fast start comes lofty expectations that are going to be tough to live up to in the immediate future.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Magic tonight.

If the Magic were going to have a letdown, it would be tonight.  That's because they just beat this same Washington Wizards team 139-120 as 9.5-point home favorites on Wednesday.  How motivated are they going to be to beat this same team again?  The answer is not very.

The Wizards will be the more motivated team here for revenge.  The Magic aren't going to shoot as well as they did in that first meeting.  They shot 60.7% from the floor and an unsustainable 17-of-27 (63%) from 3-point range.

The Wizards have been more competitive on the road than they have been at home this season.  In their six road games prior to losing to the Magic, they went 5-1 ATS upsetting Detroit by 19 as 3-point road dogs, only losing by 3 at Milwaukee as 14-point dogs, only losing by 3 at Charlotte as 4-point dogs, only losing by 4 at Toronto as 8-point dogs, only losing by 8 at Brooklyn as 7-point dogs and upsetting Charlotte by 16 as 2.5-point dogs.  So the 19-point loss at Orlando was the aberration, and it was only due to the Magic shooting an unsustainable percentage.  

Plays on any team (Washington) - off a blowout loss by 15 points or more against an opponent that is off two straight games where both teams scored 115 or more are 55-18 (75.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +12

The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson.  It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries.

Indeed, the Blazers have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, and won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs.  Now they are once again catching too many points against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

The Cavaliers are coming off a 23-point win over the Hawks which has them overvalued.  They lost by 33 at home to Miami, were upset by 6 at home by the Lakers and only beat the Raptors by 3 at home in their previous three games.  It's not like they are playing well enough right now to warrant being 12-point favorites here.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -2.5

The Butler Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS this season despite facing a very tough schedule.  Their two losses came against two of the best teams in the country in Michigan State and Florida Atlantic on the road.  They only lost to FAU by 5 as 5.5-point dogs, and FAU has been blasting everyone else.

Butler handled Penn State 88-78 as a PK on a neutral and Boise State 70-56 as 1.5-point dogs on a neutral in the two games following those two losses to MSU and FAU.  Now they get a Texas Tech team that looks down this season based on results.

Texas Tech is 5-1 SU but 2-4 ATS in its six games this season.  The Red Raiders only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 9 as 24.5-point home favorites.  They lost by 16 to Villanova on a neutral as 3.5-point dogs, and that's a Villanova team that has already been upset twice as double-digit home favorites this season.  They only beat a bad Northern Iowa team by 2 as 7-point favorites on a neutral as well.

Texas Tech is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games vs. Big East opponents.  Butler is 7-0 ATS in its last seven November home games.  Bet Butler Thursday.

15* Colorado/Colorado State Rivalry ANNIHILATOR on Colorado State -2.5

Colorado State is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and currently 27th in KenPom as one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  All six wins this season have come by 8 points or more, with none being more impressive than their 69-48 win as 9-point dogs on a neutral to Creighton last time out.

Normally this would be a letdown spot for the Rams, but that's simply not the case with hated in-state rival Colorado coming to town.  The Rams have lost three consecutive meetings with the Buffaloes including a blowout road loss last season.  They want revenge, and they will get it tonight.  Colorado State has played the much tougher schedule (129th) than Colorado (251st) as well.

Colorado is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall with some concerning results.  The Buffaloes only beat Richmond by 5 as 9-point favorites on a neutral, lost outright to Florida State by 6 as 6-point favorites, and failed to cover against a rebuilding Iona team in a 17-point home win as 19-point favorites.  Their other three wins all came at home against bad teams in Towson, Grambling and Milwaukee.  This will be their first true road game of the season.

Colorado is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 non-conference games.  The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a win by 10 points or more.  Colorado has been one of the worst road teams in the country for several years running.  Bet Colorado State Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -3.5

The Bradley Braves are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS this season despite facing a tough schedule that ranks 149th in the country.  They have beaten the likes of Utah State (61st in KenPom), Tulane (99th), Vermont (119th) and UAB (127th).  All six wins have come against teams that rank in the Top 166.

Murray State is 2-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season despite facing the 295th-ranked schedule in the country.  They lost to Western Kentucky by 5 as 1-point home favorites, UNC Wilmington as 5.5-point dogs on a neutral, by 10 to Appalachian State by 2.5-point dogs on a neutral and only beat Tennessee Tech by 6 as 12.5-point home favorites in their lone win against a Division 1 team.

Steve Prohm is one of my favorite head coaches to fade, while Brian Wardle is one of my favorite head coaches to back.  Prohm is 0-6 ATS in home games following a non-conference game as the coach of Murray State.

Bradley is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite.  The Braves are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a bad team that wins 20-40% of their games.  This is an absolute mismatch and the Braves should be bigger favorites tonight.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -2.5

The Phoenix Suns are rolling right now going 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 3 points or more.  Devin Booker is playing at an MVP level, and there's a good chance they get Kevin Durant back from injury tonight.

The Suns come in on two days' rest and will be the fresher team, which is the biggest reason for this play.  The Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 103-115 loss in Brooklyn last night.  The Raptors will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days in their 5th different city.  They will have nothing left in the tank for the Suns tonight.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on UC-Irvine +6

UC-Irvine is 6-1 this season and ranked 63rd in KenPom as one of the better mid-major programs in the country.  The Anteaters have been very impressive during their current six-game winning streak where they have also gone 5-0 ATS.

They beat USC outright 70-60 as 12.5-point road dogs.  They beat Pepperdine by 16 as 5.5-point favorites on a neutral.  They beat Toledo by 6 as 1.5-point favorites on a neutral.  And they backed it up with a 15-point win over Rice as 8-point favorites on a neutral.  Now they are catching 6 points on the road against Duquesne when this line should be much closer to a PK.

Duquesne is 4-2 this season with a win over Cleveland State by 1 as 10-point home favorites, an outright home loss to Princeton as 5.5-point favorites, and a 10-point loss at Nebraska as 6-point dogs.  Irvine has played the 68th-ranked schedule in the country while Duquesne has played the 207th.

Irvine is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 November games.  Duquesne is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers.  Irvine is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Dukes are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. good shooting teams making 48% or better on the season.  Bet UC-Irvine Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets are the most undervalued team in the NBA right now.  They have gone 8-3 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Their only three losses came on the road by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors.  They have beaten the Nuggets twice, the Lakers and the Kings twice during this run.

The Rockets play team basketball without the superstar names.  That's what makes them such an undervalued commodity.  The Mavericks have the big names in Doncic and Irving, but not much help outside of them.  And Doncic has a banged up thumb right now that he is expected to play through tonight.

The Mavericks are 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming over the lowly Wizards and the Lakers by 3 who were tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They lost by 21 at the Pelicans, by 7 at the Bucks, by 16 at home against the Kings and by 19 at the Clippers.  They aren't playing well at all right now and don't warrant being 4.5-point favorites here.

Dallas is 24-40 ATS in its last 64 games as a favorite.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder want revenge from a 120-95 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the play-in round of the playoffs last year that ended their season.  This is their first shot at revenge this season, and I expect them to make the most of it tonight.

The Thunder are fully healthy right now and are a dangerous team when that's the case.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only loss coming by 4 points to the Philadelphia 76ers, who are one of the best teams in the NBA this season.  Five of their six wins came by double-digits while the other was a 7-point win at Golden State.

The spot really favors the Thunder not only because of the revenge factor, but also because they are the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight.  The Thunder are 12-4 ATS in all games this season and have been covering machines over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +14

The Boston Celtics are getting too much respect from the books tonight as massive 14-point favorites over the Chicago Bulls.  That's especially the case considering the Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight with starting PG Jrue Holiday questionable as well.

The Bulls are undervalued right now after a 5-13 SU & 5-12-1 ATS start this season and this is a good 'buy low' spot on them.  They always seem to play the Celtics tough, and there's no doubt they will be up for this game tonight.

Indeed, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Celtics with five outright wins as underdogs.  Three of their four losses straight up have come by 8 points or less.  They will stay within this inflated number again and keep their series dominance going in this head-to-head matchup.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

20* Miami/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +7.5

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 18.0 points, Norchad Omier averaging 15.8 points and a team-high 9.2 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 16.0 points and 4.0 assists.

Bensley Joseph (11.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 2.4 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and is a swiss army knife, doing a little bit of everything for this team.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 16.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists.  This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.

Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites.  They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to the Bahamas Championship Tournament.  But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites and topping Kansas State 91-83 as 3-point favorites.  Now I expect the Hurricanes to give Kentucky a run for its money tonight.

Kentucky lost 89-84 to Kansas as 7-point underdogs on a neutral in its lone game against a decent opponent this season.  They failed to cover as massive home favorites against Texas A&M Community College, Stonehill and St. Joseph's while also beating up on bad New Mexico State and Marshall teams.  They needed OT to beat St. Joe's as a 15-point home favorite just two games ago.  They are missing some key 7-footers inside right now and are all guard-oriented, which makes this a great matchup for Miami, which has some of the best guards in the country plus Omier inside.

Kentucky is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game.  Miami is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog or PK.  The Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  The Hurricanes are a veteran team that relishes these challenges on the road in hostile environments.  Bet Miami Tuesday. 

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland +15.5

What more does Oakland have to do to get some respect from the books?  Oakland is 3-3 SU & 6-0 ATS this season against a brutal schedule being listed as underdogs in all six games.  They upset Loyola-Marymount 74-69 as 6-point dogs, upset Marshall 78-71 as 2.5-point dogs and crushed Bowling Green 81-62 as 2.5-point favorites.

But more impressive than the wins are actually the three losses.  Oakland only lost 79-73 at Ohio State as 19.5-point underdogs, lost 53-64 as 24-point dogs at Illinois and lost 85-77 as 9-point dogs on a neutral to Drake.  If they can hang with those three teams, they can certainly hang with Xavier.

Xavier already has two losses this season to Purdue by 12 and to Washington by 3.  Three of the four wins were against bottom feeders in Robert Morris (by 4), Jacksonville and Bryant.  And now Xavier has a massive game with No. 6 ranked Houston on deck and could easily be looking ahead to that game and overlooking Oakland.  Bet Oakland Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Minnesota Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating.  With all the injuries the Grizzlies are dealing with right now, points have been very hard to come by for them.  The Grizzlies were held to 100 points by the Celtics, 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last three games to fall to 3-12 SU & 5-10 ATS this season.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 11-4 SU & 8-5-2 ATS this season and have been one of the more undervalued teams in the NBA.  But they are coming off a bad home loss to the Kings, which will have them refocused and not taking the Grizzlies lightly today.

Memphis is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 games as an underdog.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +13

Giannis, Brook Lopez and Damian Lillard combined for 101 points last game and the Bucks still were life and death with one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Washington Wizards in a 131-128 win as 13.5-point home favorites.  They lost Kris Middleton to an Achilles injury in that game and he won't play today.  They will be life and death with the Blazers again today because they just don't have much help outside of those Big 3.

The Blazers are coming off a 121-105 upset win over the Jazz as 3-point home underdogs.  They are getting healthier and playing better.  Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off.  I expect the Blazers to give a big effort today in this sleepy afternoon game for the Bucks, who won't have their usual home-court advantage due to this early start time.

Plays against favorites (Milwaukee) - after two straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more against an opponent that scored 120 points or more last game are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Monmouth +6

Monmouth has been undervalued this season at 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS and the Hawks continue to be undervalued here as 6-point underdogs to the Penn Quakers.  Monmouth won outright as a 14.5-point dog at West Virginia earlier this season.

These teams have two common opponents the last two days, and it's easy to see Monmouth is the better team when looking at this results.  Monmouth beat Belmont 93-84 and beat Lafayette 63-53.  Penn only beat Lafayette 74-72 and lost outright to Belmont 84-79.

But the kicker here is that Penn went to OT against Belmont yesterday and will be the more tired team as a result.  Their three best players played 43, 36 and 35 minutes in that OT loss and won't have much left in the tank for Monmouth, which was able to rest its starters late yesterday due to the blowout nature of their game against Lafayette.  Nobody played more than 29 minutes for them yesterday.

Monmouth is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after allowing 60 points or less.  Penn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 home games after a loss by 6 points or less.  Plays on road teams (Monmouth) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games between two teams from mid-major conferences are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Monmouth Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Santa Clara +7.5

Santa Clara is absolutely legit this season.  The Broncos are off to a 6-0 start this season with two upset wins over Pac-12 teams.  They won 89-77 at Stanford as 7.5-point dogs and upset Oregon 88-82 as 5.5-point dogs on a neutral yesterday.  I fully expect them to give Ohio State a run for their money tonight.

Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far.  The Buckeyes are 4-1 SU but 1-3-1 ATS this season.  They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites.  That's why their upset win over Alabama as 6.5-point dogs yesterday came out of nowhere.  But now the Buckeyes are getting too much respect for that win, and this is now a letdown spot for them.  Bet Santa Clara Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Illinois-Chicago -1

Illinois-Chicago has been very impressive this season.  The Flames are 4-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  They only lost by 11 at Cincinnati as 15-point dogs, upset Loyola-Chicago 72-67 as 11.5-point road dogs and crushed Middle Tennessee 70-40 as 3.5-point dogs yesterday.  They will still be fresh for this game today which gives them a big advantage over George Washington.

The Revolutionaries will not be fresh for this one.  They just went to double-OT to beat Ohio 99-94 yesterday.  Three starters played at least 40 minutes for George Washington yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Flames tonight.  Bet Illinois-Chicago Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets -3.5

I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory coming off three consecutive losses.  They are also motivated because one of those losses came 122-115 at Miami on November 14th.

The Nets also have a big rest advantage over the Heat tonight.  The Nets come in on two days' rest and will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days.  Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-100 loss at New York last night.  This will also be the 9th game in 15 days for the Heat, which is about as tough as it gets in the NBA.  Eight of those nine games were on the road so there has been a ton of travel involved.

Jimmy Butler played 36 minutes, Bam Adebaoy 34, Josh Richardson 34 and Kyle Lowry 33 last night.  The Heat are already short-handed without Tyler Herro and likely without Duncan Robinson again tonight.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see them sit Butler and/or Adebayo tonight given the tough rest spot.

Brooklyn is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when revenging a road loss.  Miami is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +3

The Houston Rockets are the most underrated team in the NBA right now.  They are 7-3 SU & a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The three losses all went to the wire and were all on the road losing by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors.  They are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.

The Rockets are back home where they just crushed Memphis by 20.  They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Nuggets tonight.  The Nuggets just aren't the same without Jamal Murray and have struggled without him in recent seasons.  The Nuggets are 3-4 SU but 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall without Murray with the three wins all coming by 4 points or fewer.

Denver is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season.  Houston is 10-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season.  I fully expect Houston to win this game outright.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* Heat/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -5.5

I love the spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off following a road loss at Minnesota which was their 5th consecutive road game.  They needed the rest, and they will far back here on Black Friday with a blowout win over the Miami Heat.

The Heat are getting a lot of respect now after winning nine of their last 10 against a very soft schedule.  They are coming off a blowout win at Cleveland, but the Cavaliers were on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the 76ers in OT on the road the night before.

The Heat have two key starters questionable to play tonight in Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson and may be short-handed.  They already lack depth as it is without Tyler Herro.  Meanwhile, the Knicks are fully healthy.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 100 points or less last game.  Miami is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 105 points or less in two consecutive games.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings with four of those five wins coming by 6 points or more.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

20* Alabama/Ohio State Emerald Coast Classic No-Brainer on Alabama -6

Alabama is absolutely loaded this season.  The Crimson Tide are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while scoring at least 98 points in every game thus far.  They beat Morehead State 105-73 as 22-point favorites, topped a very good Indiana State team 102-80 as 18-point home favorites,crushed South Alabama 102-46 as 20.5-point favorites and covered in a 98-67 win over Mercer as 30.5-point favorites.  They have covered their first four spreads by a combined 50 points and remain undervalued here.

Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far and the results lead me to believe they cannot hang with a team the caliber of Alabama.  The Buckeyes are 3-1 SU but 0-3-1 ATS this season.  They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites.

Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  Alabama is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 November games.  The Crimson Tide are 23-13 ATS in their last 36 games as favorites.  Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Nate Oats is 12-2 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 to 12 points as the coach of the Crimson Tide.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* Texas Tech/Michigan ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -2

The Michigan Wolverines have impressed me this season.  They have opened 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over St. John's on the road and Stanford on a neutral yesterday.  They also took a very good Memphis team to the wire in a 4-point loss prior to beating Stanford.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are clearly down a couple notches this season.  They are 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS with some concerning results.  They only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 9 as 24.5-point home favorites.  They lost by 16 to Villanova as 3.5-point dogs.  They only beat Northern Iowa by 2 as 7-point favorites yesterday.  Michigan needs to be favored by more against this squad.

Michigan is 55-33 ATS in its last 88 games as a neutral court favorite or PK.  Texas Tech is 46-70 ATS in its last 116 neutral court games.  The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4-plus boards per game.  Bet Michigan Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Phoenix Suns -7.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mess right now with all their injuries.  They are 3-11 SU & 5-9 ATS this season.  They are without Morant, Smart, Tillman, Kennard, Adams, Clarke, LaRavia and could be without Bane tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are getting healthier and forming some chemistry right now.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall, and I expect them to handle the short-handed Grizzlies tonight.

Memphis is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* Seton Hall/USC FS1 ANNIHILATOR on USC -4

The USC Trojans have one of the best backcourt tandems in the country in Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier.  Ellis is averaging 21.0 points per game while Collier is averaging 21.0 points per game as well.

After beating Kansas State 82-69 as 3-point favorites and then covering against CS-Bakersfield, the Trojans ran into some injuries.  Ellis didn't play in their upset loss to UC-Irvine, and Kobe Johnson (15.0 PPG) has missed two games as well.  But now both guys are healthy and expected to play in this tournament.  There's also a chance the Trojans get the debut of Bronny James, Lebron's son, for this tournament though I'm not expecting it.  They don't need him to beat Seton Hall.

While USC has tested themselves already against Kansas State and UC-Irvine, Seton Hall is not prepared for this tournament at all.  The Pirates have played the 330th-ranked schedule out of 362 teams.  So there's not much you can gather from their 4-0 start against St. Peter's, Farleigh Dickinson, Albany and Wagner.  This is a massive step up in class for them, and they will fail.

USC is 14-3 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  Andy Enfield is 13-4 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of USC.  Bet USC Thursday.

20* Michigan State/Arizona FOX No-Brainer on Arizona -5

The Arizona Wildcats are absolutely loaded this season.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS despite being favored by 25 points or more four times, they covered all four.  They also upset Duke 78-73 as 5-point road underdogs, handing Duke their first loss at Cameron Indoor since current head coach Jon Scheyer took over for Coach K.

That gives these teams a common opponent as Michigan State lost 74-65 as 4-point underdogs on a neutral court to Duke.  I think that's a telling sign of how this game is going to go for the Spartans.  If they couldn't have with Duke on a neutral, they're certainly not going to be able to hang with Arizona.

Michigan State was also upset 79-76 as 16.5-point home favorites by James Madison earlier this season.  This team has been grossly overvalued since opening as a Top 5 team.  They don't have shooting as they are hitting just 26.3% from 3-point range this season.  Arizona shoots the 3 at a 41.5% clip to compare.

Plays against underdogs (Michigan State) - off a blowout win by 30 points or more against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more in five consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Bradley -4

The Bradley Braves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against a tough schedule.  They went on the road and beat UAB 73-71 as 4.5-point dogs, beat Utah State 72-66 as 5.5-point home favorites and topped Tarleton State 86-63 as 10-point home favorites.  They also beat Tulane 80-77 as 1-point favorites and controlled the game throughout as it only became close late.

UTEP is getting too much respect for its 5-0 start against a much softer schedule.  The five wins came against McMurray, U of Oklahoma Science and Arts, UC-Santa Barbara, Austin Pey and Cal.  Those last two wins against AP and Cal went to the wire.  This will be by far their toughest test of the season to date, while Bradley has already faced three teams that are better than UTEP and beat them all.

Bradley is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite.  The Braves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 80 points or more last game.  The Braves are the class of the MVC right alongside Indiana State and Drake.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -4.5

The Houston Rockets are one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA right now.  They are 6-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only losses all coming on the road to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Clippers by 6, the Lakers by 1 and the Warriors by 5.

Now the Rockets are back home where they are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  They host one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 3-10 SU & 5-8 ATS this season.  The Grizzlies have the worst injury situation in the entire NBA which is the biggest reason for their struggles.

Memphis is 1-18 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Hofstra -5.5

Hofstra is absolutely loaded this season and it's showing up in this tournament.  They beat Buffalo 102-68 as 9.5-point favorites and Wright State 85-76 as 2.5-point favorites the past two days.  They have one of the best guard tandems in the country in Thomas (22.0 PPG) and Dubar (19.6 PPG).  These guards will lead them to another blowout victory over High Point today.

High Point has had to work much harder for its two victories the past two days beating a rebuilding Iona team 82-68 and then topping Illinois State 74-72 yesterday.  This is a big step up in class for them.  Keep in mind this team lost to Wofford and Queens prior to this tournament.

Hofstra is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a favorite.  Hofstra is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Hofstra Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana State -5.5

Indiana State is absolutely loaded this season.  The Sycamores are 3-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road at Alabama, which looks like it might be the best team in the country.  They beat IUPUI 96-57 as 17.5-point favorites and then Rice 103-88 as 6.5-point favorites yesterday.

Indiana State jumped out to a 55-34 halftime lead on Rice yesterday and was able to coast in the 2nd half to save up for Pepperdine today.  No player on Indiana State played more than 29 minutes yesterday, so they are going to be very fresh for Pepperdine.

The Waves are coming off two consecutive blowout losses to UNLV 82-68 as 2.5-point dogs and then UC-Irvine 76-60 as 5.5-point dogs yesterday.  Indiana State is better than both of those teams and the class of the MVC right alongside Bradley and Drake.  I expect another blowout victory in the Sycamores' favor today.

Indiana State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following two consecutive games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers.  Pepperdine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a loss by 10 points or more.  The Waves are 0-7 ATS in thier last seven road games after scoring 60 points or less.  Pepperdine is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +8

The Utah Jazz are playing well going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their two losses came to the Suns by 3 points apiece with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant both healthy.  Now they will give LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are run for their money tonight.

The Lakers are getting too much respect now after winning five of their last six games coming in.  But three of the five were decided by 6 points or less, and it has mostly come against a very soft schedule.  They lost by 15 at home to the Kings for their lone loss.  Their only wins by margin came against arguably the two worst teams in the NBA in the Grizzlies and Blazers, and they also only beat the Blazers by 6.  They beat the Rockets by 1 last time out.

The Jazz should be the fresher team here too playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, while the Lakers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  The Jazz are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games as underdogs.  Utah is 32-13 ATS in its last 45 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, winning between 51-60% of their games on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -9

The Milwaukee Bucks are starting to form chemistry now with Damian Lillard in the fold and they are playing up to their potential.  The Bucks have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone ATS loss coming by a half-point in a 9-point home win over the Bulls as 9.5-point favorites.  They beat the Mavs by 7 as 2-point home favorites on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They also beat the Raptors by 16 and the Hornets by 31 on the road.

Now they hit the road again and face arguably the worst team in the entire NBA in the Washington Wizards.  The Wizards are 2-10 this season.  The Wizards rank 25th in defensive efficiency and are allowing 122.9 points per game and 49.6% shooting this season.  They also rank just 24th in offensive efficiency and 27th in net rating.

The Bucks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Wizards with two wins coming by double-digits.  Milwaukee is 39-20 ATS in its last 59 games as a road favorite.  The Wizards just lost by 13 to the Mavericks and by 21 to the Knicks at home in their last two games to fall to 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season.  It will be more of the same here against the Bucks with another double-digit home loss.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

20* UConn/Texas ESPNU No-Brainer on UConn -5.5

The UConn Huskies won the national title last season and are loaded again this season.  They are off to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season with all four victories coming by 20 points or more.  That includes their 77-57 win as 11-point favorites over Indiana yesterday in the early game.

Since they blew out Indiana, they were able to rest their starters late.  They also played the early game yesterday while Texas played the night game.  So they got to rest even longer plus watch the Longhorns play after.  They will be the fresher team and will have the better game plan coming into this one as a result.

Texas is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall and has been grossly overvalued.  After covering by a single point in the opener, they failed to cover by 5 against Delaware State, by 4.5 against Rice and by 16.5 against Louisville.  That 81-80 win as 17.5-point favorites over Louisville yesterday was alarming.  

Louisville is expected to be one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country after last season's 4-27 disaster.  Louisville was beaten in an exhibition game in the preseason.  They only beat UMBC by 1 as 7.5-point favorites and were upset by Chattanooga by 10 as 3.5-point favorites.  The fact that the Longhorns needed a buzzer-beater to beat Louisville is all you need to know about the state of their program this season, especially since they are without one of their best players in Dylan Disu.

UConn is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral court games.  The Huskies are 14-0 ATS in their last 14 games following three consecutive non-conference games.  UConn is 19-2 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.  Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 75 points or more in two consecutive games.  Bet UConn Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4

The Indiana Pacers undervalued to start the season opening 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS.  They score 126.5 points per game while ranking 2nd in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency.  Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game.  They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers.

This is a great spot for the Pacers as they are rested and ready to go after having the last four days off.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days and are a tired team right now, especially since they are short-handed due to injury.  The Magic lost by 20 at Brooklyn and then upset the Bulls twice in three days, but the Bulls are terrible and the Magic are getting respect now for those two wins when they shouldn't be.

Orlando is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 games following two consecutive wins by 6 points or fewer.  The Pacers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 November home games.  The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Magic.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

20* Kansas State/Miami Bahamas Championship No-Brainer on Miami -2.5

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 28.8 points, Norchad Omier averaging 14.0 points and a team-high 9.8 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 13.0 points and a team-high 5.0 assists.

Bensley Joseph (13.8 PPG, 3.0 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and handled it very well.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 17.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists.  This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.

Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites.  They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to this Bahamas Championship Tournament.  But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites.  And now I expect them to blast this overrated Kansas State team.

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

Kansas State has been unimpressive thus far.  The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral.  They only beat Bellarmine 83-75 as 16-point favorites in their next game.  After beating South Dakota State 91-68 and Providence 73-70 and covering both games, the Wildcats are now getting respect again.  But they aren't in the same class as this Miami team, and that will show today.  Bet Miami Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2.5

The Miami Heat are rolling right now with seven consecutive victories.  They play a struggling Chicago Bulls team that is in the midst of a ton of trade rumors right now.  The Bulls have lost three consecutive games, including back-to-back losses to Orlando at home.

The spot really favors the Heat tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 97-103 loss to the Magic last night.  This will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Bulls, which is one of the toughest spots a team can be in in the NBA.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6.5

The New York Knicks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the last two seasons.  That has been the case again this season as they are 7-5 SU & 7-3-2 ATS in their 12 games.  They have a great bench and guys like Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle just don't get the respect they deserve.

The Charlotte Hornets are a dumpster fire again this season and battling injuries.  No starter other than La'Melo Ball scored more than 11 points last night in a 130-99 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.  Now I expect them to get blown out by the Knicks, who are coming off a 120-99 road win at Washington last night.

The Knicks just beat the Hornets 129-107 as 10.5-point home favorites on Sunday.  They will cover this short 6.5-point spread in the rematch as well with the Hornets showing nothing worth betting on of late.

The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New York is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road favorite.  The Knicks are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Iowa -20

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 2-1 ATS against the closing line but 3-0 ATS as long as you didn't wait til close to bet them.  They beat North Dakota 110-68 as 20.5-point favorites, beat Alabama State 98-67 as closing 31.5-point favorites in the game that you win at all other numbers, and only lost 92-84 as 12-point road dogs at Creighton.

Death, taxes and betting on Iowa at home.  Fran McCaffery is 101-63 ATS as a home favorite or PK as the coach of Iowa.  McCaffery is 46-21 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more.  Iowa is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points.

Arkansas State lost 105-76 at Wisconsin in the opener and Iowa is better than Wisconsin.  If they can lose by 29 to the Badgers and give up 105 points to a team not known for offense, you can imagine what they'll give up against Iowa today.  The Red Wolves allow 90.7 points per game and 55.1% shooting to their opponents while ranking 290th in adjusted defense this season.

The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-point shots per game.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Iowa Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -8.5

The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury as he means everything to this team.  In the two games back they crushed Cleveland 132-120 as 1-point home underdogs and upset the Lakers 125-110 as 1-point road dogs.  Now they take on the hapless San Antonio Spurs tonight, and another double-digit blowout in their favor is going to be the result.

The Spurs are 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their last five losses coming by an average of 22.0 points per game.  Injuries have set them back as they are without both Devin Vassell and Tre Jones.  Plus, they just don't play any defense and simply don't have much talent aside from Wembenyana.

The Kings are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Spurs with their last three wins all coming by double-digits.  San Antonio is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games following four or more consecutive ATS losses.  Sacramento is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +10

Thad Matta clearly has his players in place this season to make the Butler Bulldogs a real threat in the Big East.  Butler is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season beating Eastern Michigan 94-55 as 16-point favorites, SE Missouri State 91-56 as 20-point favorites and East Tennessee State 81-47 as 17-point favorites.  The Bulldogs are grossly undervalued covering the spread by a combined 55 points in those first three games and remain undervalued as 10-point dogs to Michigan State tonight.

Michigan State is grossly overvalued.  The Spartans are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season losing outright 76-79 as 16.5-point favorites to James Madison, only beating Southern Indiana 74-51 as 31.5-point favorites and losing to Duke 74-65 on a neutral as 4-point dogs.  The Spartans have failed to cover those three spreads by a combined 33 points.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Butler Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5

The Golden State Warriors are going to be without their two most important players tonight.  Stephen Curry (30.7 PPG) is what keeps the Warriors a contender in the West.  Well, they are going to be without him tonight.  They will also be without Draymond Green, who is their best defender and important in screen and rolls with Curry and as a passer.  They are one of the worst teams in the NBA without these two.

I think the Warriors are getting too much respect here because they were able to hang with the Timberwolves in a 3-point loss without these two in their last game.  That was clearly a letdown spot for the Timberwolves after beating the Warriors two days earlier, and knowing they didn't have to face Curry in the rematch.  Then Green and Thompson got tossed right away and Minnesota simply took their foot off the gas.

The Oklahoma City Thunder won't make the same mistake tonight.  They are in a great spot here as they are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They also want revenge from a 141-139 home loss to the Warriors as 6-point dogs on November 3rd just two weeks ago.  Well, they didn't have their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for that game, while the Warriors were fully healthy and they still only lost by 2 on a buzzer-beater by the Warriors.

This game will also be on National TV so we'll get a fully-focused effort from the Thunder.  Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKC) - off a blowout home win by 20 points or more, a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +2

Minnesota has been impressive thus far beating Bethune-Cookman 80-60 as 17.5-point favorites and crushing UTSA 102-76 as 12-point favorites.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS covering the spread by a combined 16.5 points in their first two games, so they are undervalued.

Missouri is grossly overvalued thus far.  The Tigers are 2-1 SU by 0-3 ATS this season.  They failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites in a 22-point win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, lost outright as 3-point favorites by 15 at home to Memphis, and only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 18 as 18.5-point favorites.  They have failed to cover the spread in those three games by a combined 24 points.

Minnesota four-star freshman Cam Christie made his debut against UTSA and scored 18 points, which was the most points for a true freshman in his Golden Gophers debut since Kris Humphries in 2003.  Dawson Garcia averaged 15.6 PPG and 6.6 RPG last season and has upped his game thus far, averaging 22.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG through two games.  Isaiah Ihnen is averaging 14.0 PPG and 5.0 RPG after sitting out the past two seasons, so the Gophers are glad to have him back.

Missouri lost a ton of talent from the surprise team that made the NCAA Tournament last season in Dennis Gates' first year on the job.  They lost Kobe Brown to the NBA and bring back just one full-time starter.  It's no wonder they are struggling to meet expectations in the early going, especially with that 15-point home loss to Memphis being extra alarming.  Bet Minnesota Thursday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -12.5

USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the Pac-12 Preseason Player of the Year.  They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points.  

Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score.  7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a health scare and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State.  They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart.

That has proven to be the case thus far as USC is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  They beat Kansas State 82-69 as 3-point favorites on a neutral.  Kansas State made the Elite 8 last year.  They also handled their business in a 85-59 win as 23.5-point favorites over CS-Bakersfield.  Ellis and Collier are meshing well and are up there for the best guard tandem in the entire country.

UC-Irvine has a really bad loss already coming 72-64 at San Jose State as 3.5-point favorites.  Their 91-74 home win over New Mexico State isn't that impressive when you consider New Mexico State lost by 40 at Kentucky the game prior.  Irvine is getting too much respect here and will be in over their heads against this loaded, underrated Trojans team.  Bet USC Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa +12.5

Iowa has a nice mix of veterans and young freshman talent and I think this is one of the more underrated teams in the country right now.  Iowa opened with a 110-68 win as 20-point favorites over North Dakota and a 98-67 win as closing 31.5-point favorites against Alabama State, though if you bet Iowa prior to close you likely won.

Peyton Sandfort (19.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) has led the way but coach's son Patrick McCaffery (16.5 PPG) looks to be living up to his potential this season.  "We respect everybody but we fear no one," McCaffery said leading into this game with Creighton. "We really need to come in and push the envelope.  It's a great opportunity to compete.  They're a really good team."

Creighton is getting a lot of respect with a Top 10 ranking while bringing back three starters plus adding in Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth.  They won and covered their first two games against Florida A&M and North Dakota State, so this is clearly a big step up in class for both teams.  I just don't think there's as much separation as this 12.5-point spread would indicate.  Bet Iowa Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 8-2 this season and showing what they are capable of when Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are on the court at the same time.  They have changed their offensive philosophy and are getting off shots quick so defenses don't have time to adjust, and Doncic is in the best shape of his life to accommodate it.

The Mavericks are scoring 124.1 points per game this season.  They rank 9th in pace and 2nd in offensive efficiency, so it's clearly working.  They just beat the Clippers 144-126 at home which was followed up by a 136-124 win at New Orleans.  They get to play the Pelicans again tonight, and it's going to be more of the same given the current state of their opponent.

The Pelicans are one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NBA right now.  They are without CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Larry Nance Jr.  They could also be without Herbert Jones, who is questionable.  There is too much on the shoulders of Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, and these two aren't capable of beating the Mavericks on their own.

The Pelicans are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by 12 points or more and the five losses coming by an average of 14.8 points per game.  New Orleans is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 120-plus points pre game.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Texas A&M -5.5

Texas A&M is ranked 13th in the country but they don't get the kind of respect as other top teams.  They should be more than 5.5-point favorites here against the rebuilding SMU Mustangs tonight.

Texas A&M is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS beating Texas A&M Commerce 78-46 as 21.5-point favorites.  To compare, Texas Tech beat that same team by 27 and Kentucky only beat them by 20.  The Aggies then went on the road and beat Ohio State 73-66 as 1.5-point dogs last time out.

SMU is 3-0 against a much softer schedule and have two concerning results already.  The Mustangs only beat Southwest Assembly of God 82-63 and Lamar 78-67 as 20-point favorites.  They aren't going to be able to hang with a team like Texas A&M given those results.

SMU is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 November games.  The Mustangs are 13-30 ATS in their last 43 games as a home dog of 6 points or less or PK.  The Aggies are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games overall.  Texas A&M is 34-18 ATS in its last 52 games as a road favorite or PK.  In Buzz Williams I trust.  Bet Texas A&M Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on South Dakota State +10.5

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

That appears to be the case thus far.  The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral in their opener.  They struggled to put away Bellarmine in a 83-75 win as 16-point home favorites last time out.  That narrow win looks really bad when you consider Bellarmine lost their other game 91-57 as 10.5-point dogs at Washington.  And in Washington's other two games, they failed to cover in an 8-point win over Northern Kentucky as 15.5-point favorites and lost outright by 7 as 5.5-point favorites against Nevada.

South Dakota State lost 81-75 at home as 2-point favorites against Akron in their opener.  Everyone picked Akron to win the MAC this season, so that wasn't a bad loss at all.  This might actually be a step down in class for them tonight.  They went on to beat Dakota Wesleyan 83-55 and have had the last four days off to get ready for Kansas State.  

South Dakota State is the preseason favorite to win the Summit League.  A big reason for that is having Summit League Preseason Player of the Year, Zeko Mayo.  He shows his 28-point effort against Akron was no fluke with 28 more against Wesleyan.  He and William Kyle III (17 points, 13 rebounds) both had double-doubles.  I expect Mayo, Kyle III and the Jackrabbits give the Wildcats a run for their money tonight.  Bet South Dakota State Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +9

The New York Knicks have quietly gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They haven't lost a single game by more than 9 points all season, and they aren't about to start now.  

The books have set this number too high because the Knicks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they blew out the Hornets 129-107 at 12:00 PM EST Sunday and now don't play until night on Monday. They also had three days off prior to that game and rested their starters in the 4th quarter of that blowout Sunday.  They will still be fresh for this game Monday, and they want revenge from a 104-108 home loss to the Celtics in their first meeting this season.

The Celtics are getting too much respect here off a pair of blowout home wins over the Nets and Raptors.  This is a big step up in class for them tonight.  They never blow out the Knicks, going 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with New York.  The Knicks have them figured out, and they will keep this one close again tonight if not win outright.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  The Knicks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more consecutive wins.  Asking the Celtics to beat the Knicks by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Miami -20.5

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 22.0 points, Norchad Omier averaging 19.5 points and a team-high 11.0 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 9.5 points and a team-high 6.0 assists.

But the unsung hero is Bensley Joseph, who had an incredible stat line in a 88-72 win over UCF on Friday.  He has 15 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals and 4 blocks.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 14.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists.

Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites last time out.  Now they play a terrible Florida International team that lost 85-62 as 9.5-point dogs at UCF in their opener to give these teams a rare common opponent here early in the season.  It was no aberration as FIU went on to lose 82-65 despite being 4.5-point home favorites to Tarleton State.  It's not going to go well for the Panthers tonight, either.

FIU is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The Panthers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a home win where they scored 85 points or more.  The Hurricanes rank 3rd in the country in average offensive possessions length so they are going to get a ton of shots up on offense, which is why I'm not scared of laying this big number.  Bet Miami Monday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3

The Phoenix Suns are going to be fade material until they get healthy.  Bradley Beal is working his way back from injury, Devin Booker remains out and Eric Gordon is questionable after missing the last game.  There's just not enough depth on this team to be missing these guys, or not having them at 100%.

The Suns are 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset losses to the Spurs (twice) and Lakers all at home.  Their only two wins during this stretch came against the lowly Bulls and Pistons.  Now they take a big step up in class here against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that I believe is a contender in the West when healthy.

Well, the Thunder are healthy right now beating the Hawks and Cavaliers at home before a disappointing loss at Sacramento.  They'll come back highly motivated for a victory after that loss to the Kings, and they should not be underdogs here given the current state of the Suns.

The Thunder are 42-22 ATS in their last 64 games after scoring 105 points or less.  Oklahoma City is 37-23 ATS in its last 60 games as an underdog.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in three of those five games.  They have wins by 9, 18, 25, 34 and 3 points as these games have rarely even been close to the spread.

Now the Rockets will stay hot tonight and won't have a letdown considering the defending champion Denver Nuggets are coming to town.  The Nuggets have been fortunate to play a home-heavy schedule to this point with six of their first nine games at home.  They are 1-2 ATS on the road with a 4-point win over lowly Memphis and a 21-point loss at Minnesota included.

The Nuggets aren't at full strength right now as Jamal Murray is sidelined with a hamstring injury.  They have been dominant when Murray and Jokic have been on the court at the same time, but they have been vulnerable the past several seasons when Murray has been out.  They are vulnerable tonight against the red-hot Rockets.  Bet the Rockets Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +8.5

The Toronto Raptors have turned it around and been very impressive in their last four games.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming to the 76ers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The 76ers have just one loss this season and it came by a single point.

Toronto beat Milwaukee 130-111 as 4.5-point home dogs.  The Raptors went on the road and topped San Antonio 123-116 as 3.5-point favorites.  They then upset the Dallas Mavericks 127-116 as 4.5-point dogs.  Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off, plus they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.

Meanwhile, Boston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Nets 121-107 at home last night.  The starters had to play most the game in that one as it wasn't decided until late in the 4th quarter.  It will also be the 5th game in 8 days for the Celtics, who shouldn't be laying this big of a number given the Raptors' rest advantage.

Four of the last five meetings between Boston and Toronto have been decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet the Raptors Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -6.5

The Toledo Rockets are a contender in the MAC this season.  The won 94-60 as 15.5-point home favorites over Detroit in their opener to continue their ATS dominance over the last several seasons, especially when favored at home.

Louisiana beat Youngstown State 72-62 as 4-point home favorites in their opener.  Louisiana is picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Sun Belt.  That win over Youngstown State doesn't look at good now after Youngstown State just lost 92-62 at Michigan as 16-point underdogs Friday night.

Toledo is 44-24 ATS in its last 68 games overall.  Toledo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder just got their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in the lineup and promptly pulled off two consecutive upset victories over the Hawks 126-117 and the Cavaliers 128-120.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and a dangerous team when that's the case.

The Sacramento Kings are still without their star in De'Aaron Fox, and they have been dreadful without him.  The Kings are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games without Fox.  That includes consecutive blowout losses to the Rockets by 25 and 18 points, as well as a narrow 3-point win over the Blazers as 8-point favorites last time out.  This is now a big step up in class here for the Kings against the Thunder tonight.  It won't go well for the Kings here.  

Plays against home teams were the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - after losing by 42 or more points total against the spread in their last five games in the first half of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in three of those four games.  They have wins by 9, 18, 25 and 34 points as these games aren't even coming close to the spreads.

Now the Rockets will stay hot tonight against the injury-ravaged New Orleans Pelicans.  The Pelicans are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 18, 18 and 21 points.  They are without CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado, Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy III.  Both Zion Williamson and Herbert Jones are questionable tonight as well.

New Orleans is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 6-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game.  The Pelicans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games when playing against a marginal winning (51-60%) team.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Houston) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points in their last five games in the first half of the season are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on any team (Houston) - vs. division opponents, off three or more consecutive upset wins as underdogs are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +12

The Brooklyn Nets are 4-4 SU but 7-0-1 ATS this season.  They haven't lost a single game by more than 10 points and three of their four losses came by 5 points or fewer.  They have been competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against the Celtics tonight.

The Nets will be motivated to revenge that 10-point defeat as it came at the hands of the Celtics on November 4th less than a week ago.  Keep in mind the Nets were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in that game, while the Celtics were coming in on two days' rest so they had a huge advantage.  They don't have that same advantage tonight.

The Celtics aren't playing well right now going 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset on the road by both the Timberwolves and 76ers plus pushing in that 10-point win over the Nets.  The Celtics are back home for the first time since November 1st and there are distractions they will be dealing with back home after a 3-game road trip.  Bet the Nets Friday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Chattanooga +4

Louisville was the worst Power 5 team in all of college basketball last season.  They lost nine consecutive games to begin last season and went 4-28 overall.  They are likely to be the worst Power 5 team in all of college basketball again in 2023-24.

Louisville lost 71-68 to Kentucky Wesleyan in an exhibition game on October 30th.  The Cardinals were life and death in a 94-93 home win over MD-Baltimore Counting as 7.5-point favorites in their official opener.  And now they are going to get upset by Chattanooga, which is coming off an 89-44 win over Covenant in their opener.  I expect the Monarchs to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  

Louisville is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite or PK.  The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in their last eight November games.  Bet Chattanooga Friday.