Sports Picks & Predictions

20* Clippers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are among the favorites to win the NBA title this season for good reason.  Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are back healthy together.  But they are loaded with depth as well by adding John Wall to go along with Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, Ivaca Zubac, Norman Powell, Luke Kennard, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington and Terrence Mann.  No team has two bigger stars together, and no team has more depth than the Clippers.

The Lakers missed the playoffs last year and I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the playoffs again this season.  Anthony Davis and LeBron James cannot stay healthy, and they don't have the help around them they need.  Both are already banged up.  They will be starting alongside Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverly and Lonnie Walker IV.

Westbrook is a terrible fit for this team because he needs the ball in his hand so much and can't make open shots.  In fact, the Lakers are probably the worst shooting team in the NBA this season.  They have no depth with Austin Reaves, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damian Jones and Kendrick Nunn their top options off the bench now with key 6th man Dennis Schroder out with an injury.

The Lakers lost 123-109 to the Warriors in their opener.  They shot just 43% as a team and committed 21 turnovers.  That includes 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range.  Teams can continue to sag into the paint and force them to try and beat them from 3, which they cannot do.

The Clippers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers.  They one-sided nature of this series continues tonight with a blowout victory by the Clippers.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -1.5

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into the 2022-23 season due to not making the playoffs for 16 consecutive seasons.  They have a great chance to end that drought as they hired Mike Brown, who was the top assistant with the Golden State Warriors and has plenty of experience.  It was probably the best hire of the offseason.

Brown has loads of talent to work with as De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Harrison Barnes and rookie Keegan Murray lead the way.  I know Murray will miss the opener, but I still believe the Kings have what it takes to get the job done.  No team was more impressive in the preseason than the Kings, who went 4-0 while outscoring opponents 117.3 to 89.8, or by an average of 27.5 points per game.   They added SG Kevin Huerter, and the depth is good with Malik Monk, Terence Davis, Richaun Holmes, KZ Okpala and Davion Mitchell coming off the bench.

I like Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons for the Blazers.  The problem is they don't have much help outside of those three.  That was evident last year when the Blazers went 2-21 after the All-Star Break with 11 of those losses by at least 25 points.  They are without Gary Payton II to start the season.  Josh Hart, Nassir Little and Jusuf Nurkic are all replacement-level players who are going to be playing too many minutes with two of them starting.

The Blazers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Portland went 0-4 in the preseason against NBA teams and lost by 30 to this same Kings team.  They also lost by 33 to the Warriors and by 17 to the Jazz, who are terrible.  Chauncey Billups may just be a bust of a head coach even though he has a great reputation.  Take the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Brooklyn Nets were swept in four games by the Celtics last season and were a major disappointment.  They are getting a lot of respect to start this season, but it's unwarranted.  It's going to take some time for Ben Simmons to gel with Durant and Irving.  And there's not much depth behind those three, especially with their two key role players in Seth Curry and Joe Harris out for the season opener.

Brooklyn is 3-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 6-28-1 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Celtics 2022 NBA Season Opener on Boston -2.5

There has been a lot of negative media attention surrounding the Boston Celtics this offseason due to the Ime Udoka suspension.  I think there will be value on the Celtics in the early going because of it, especially in the opener as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers.

Now 34-year-old Joe Mazzulla becomes the youngest coach in the league.  I like everything I've heard from him and the players since the suspension and they'll be just fine.  Few teams have a deeper roster than the Celtics, plus they added Malcolm Brogdon who averaged 19.1 points and 5.9 assists last season in Indiana.  They only real key loss is Robert Williams due to injury.

Conversely, there is a ton of hype surrounding the Philadelphia 76ers this offseason.  That's because James Harden finally came into a training camp in shape.  Well, Harden is still past his prime, and it's sad that people celebrate a player actually coming into camp in shape.  Harden is one of the most overrated players in the NBA, in shape or not.  

The 76ers do not have the depth that the Celtics do this season.  And I would take Boston's starting five over that of Philadelphia as well.  The Celtics are loaded with Tatum, Brown, Brogdon, Smart and Horford.  They are going to be tough to tame on offense, and all are plus defenders.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics -3

The Boston Celtics finally lost two games in a row for the first time in these playoffs.  I love their chances of bouncing back in Game 6 tonight and forcing a Game 7 with the resiliency we've seen from this team all playoffs.

The Celtics blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead to the Bucks in Game 5 at home and lost to fall behind 3-2.  They proceeded to win Game 6 in Milwaukee by 13 and Game 7 at home by 28.  They had their chance to close out the Heat in Game 6 at home and lost by 8.  They went on to win Game 7 in Miami.  They are battle-tested in these clutch situations.

The hardest game is the close out game for the Warriors.  The lost their first close out game at Denver by 5.  The blew their first opportunity to close out the Grizzlies in a 39-point road loss.  They also blew their first opportunity to close out the Mavericks in a 10-point road loss.  So, they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their first close out game in all three series in these playoffs.  They know they have Game 7 at home if need be, so they won't be playing with the same kind of urgency the Celtics will be in Game 6.

A lot went wrong for the Celtics in Game 5, not the least of which was a favorable whistle for the Warriors at home.  I think the Celtics will get the favorable whistle at home in Game 6.  Plus, they aren't going to lose the turnover battle 18-6, and they aren't going to miss 10 free throws again.  Those were the biggest differences in the game.

Boston is 11-1 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  The Celtics are 11-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Boston is 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston +4

The Boston Celtics have been a very resilient bunch all season and in the playoffs.  Look for them to bounce back following a 10-point home loss in Game 4 that evened the series.  Now they are catching too many points in Game 5 on the road, where they have actually played their best basketball in these playoffs.

The Celtics are 8-3 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their 13 playoff road games.  They won three out of four in Miami last series, two out of three in Milwaukee and swept the Nets on the road.  They haven't lost two games in a row the entire playoffs.  The Celtics are now 9-0 SU in their last nine games following a defeat.

Boston is 10-2 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Celtics are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The Celtics are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 trips to Golden State.  The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Monday.

20* Warriors/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -3.5

Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors got away with murder in Game 2.  That's the reason they won that game as the officials simply let them play.  They won't get away with murder in Game 3 in Boston, and thus the Celtics are the better team and will fire back after getting embarrassed.

Boston is 7-0 ATS after scoring 90 points or less this season.  It is coming back to win by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  The Celtics are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  They are winning by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  

The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  They have been resilient all season, especially in the playoffs.  The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Boston is 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston +3.5

The Golden State Warriors have been off since May 26th.  That's a full week off and sometimes rest can be a bad thing.  I think that will be the case for the Warriors, who will be rusty now after building up a bunch of momentum in beating the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks.

I think the Warriors have had an easy path to the NBA Finals.  They avoided the Suns, played two banged up teams in the Nuggets and Grizzlies, and played a Mavericks team that had no answer for Stephen Curry.  The Celtics have the answer in defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, plus guys like Jaylon Brown can switch on him when Smart is out of the game.

I think the Celtics got the perfect amount of rest they needed.  They had just three days off in between games to let both Smart and Robert Williams heal.  The Celtics have earned their way into the NBA Finals by beating Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the Nets, the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks, and the top seed in the Miami Heat.  They won Game 7's each of the last two series and appear to be a team of destiny.  They should carry over that momentum into Game 1 today.

The Celtics are the only NBA team with a winning record against the Warriors during this dynasty run.  Boston is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Golden State.  The Celtics are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 road games, including 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine trips to Golden State.  Bet the Celtics in Game 1 Thursday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +9

I am a perfect 5-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3, the Celtics in Game 4 and the Celtics in Game 5.  After cashing in the Celtics the past two games, I'm going back with the Heat in Game 6 tonight.

This line has simply gotten out of control.  The Celtics go from being 5 and 6.5-point home favorites in Games 3 and 4 to whopping 9-point favorites in Game 6.  That is too big of an adjustment, and it's an overreaction from the Celtics winning the last two games in blowouts.

The Heat aren't going to only score 80 and 82 points again while shooting 31.9% and 33.3% from the field, respectively.  They will shoot it better, especially from 3-point range where they have gone a combined 15-of-79 (19%) the past two games.  This Miami team has too much pride to go home without a fight as they are a bunch of dogs.  And the injury report came back better than expected for them as they should have almost everyone available tonight.

Miami is 15-6 ATS as a road underdog this season.  Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following two straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Friday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks feel like they are playing on house money.  Everyone counted them out when they were down 3-0 in this series.  They came out relaxed in Game 4 and won 119-109 over Golden State.  Now they will come out relaxed in Game 5 and give the Warriors a run for their money.

Dallas has two very poor shooting games in this series which explains two of their losses.  They had the Warriors by the balls in Game 2 but blew a 14-point halftime lead.  They are much better shooting team than they have shown in this series, and they finally knocked some down in a 20-of-43 (46.5%) performance from 3 in Game 4.

Remember, the Mavericks were down 3-2 to Phoenix and everyone counted them out last series.  They proceeded to crush the Suns at home by 27 in Game 6 and by 30 on the road in Game 7.  They really don't feel like they are out of this series.  I don't think the Warriors were in it mentally in Game 4 with the shooting in Texas and Steve Kerr having such a big reaction to it.  I question their head space in Game 5 as well.  They struggled to close out he Grizzlies last series, and it won't be easy closing out this feisty Mavs team, either.

There's value with the Mavericks when you consider they were 5.5-point road underdogs in Game 1 and 6-point road underdogs in Game 2, and now they are 7 or 7.5-point road underdogs in Game 5.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Thursday.

15* Celtics/Heat ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -1.5

I'm 4-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3 and the Celtics in Game 4.  I am going to fade the Zig Zag theory here tonight and get back on the Celtics for a couple of different reasons, not the least of which is the obvious fact that the Celtics are the better team based on what we've seen so far.

The Celtics are two poor quarters away from sweeping the Heat in this series.  They have been dominant when Robert Williams has played, and he is expected to play tonight.  In fact, the Celtics could be at full strength tonight if Marcus Smart (questionable) plays.

The Heat are really banged up.  Jimmy Butler is going to play but he clearly wasn't himself in Game 4, making just 3-of-14 shots without getting to the FT line once.  He can't be as aggressive as he normally is with the bum knee that forced him to sit the entire 2nd half of Game 3.  Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are all nursing injuries and questionable.  There's rumors the Heat could have some COVID issues as well.

The Celtics are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  They take control of this series with a win and cover in Game 5 tonight.  Bet with the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Dallas PK

The Dallas Mavericks just haven't gotten anything in this series from players outside Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie.  This after they shot their way into the conference finals on the backs of Doncic and their role players hitting open 3's.  They haven't hit those 3's in this series with the exception of Game 2, which they controlled throughout before falling apart in the 4th quarter.

The Mavericks shot just 13-of-45 (28.9%) from 3 in Game 3 and just 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3 in Game 1.  They aren't going to continue shooting this poorly in Game 4 tonight.  Look for guys like Finney-Smith, Bullock and Kleber to start hitting more of their open looks in this one.  I think this is where it all comes together for the Mavericks as they show their pride for one game and avoid the sweep.

Conversely, I fully expect the Warriors to let down in Game 4 tonight knowing they all but have this series wrapped up.  We saw them let down last series against Memphis when they lost 95-134 as 4-point road favorites in Game 5 with a chance to clinch.

The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Mavericks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Dallas is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 games following a SU loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -6.5

I'm 3-0 in this series.  I cashed in the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2 and the Heat in Game 3.  I'm back on the Celtics in Game 4 and riding the Zig Zag Theory in this series because it's so evenly matched that it works.  The Zig Zag Theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.

The Celtics gave away Game 3 by committing 21 turnovers and the Heat capitalized, outscoring Boston 33-9 in points off turnovers.  Miami got off to such a strong start that they were able to hold on to a 26-point lead even though it was eventually cut to 1 late in the 4th.  Boston fell short, but they will respond in a big way like they have all season following a defeat.

The Heat won despite Jimmy Butler sitting out the entire 2nd half with knee inflammation.  I can't possibly imagine he's anywhere near 100% two days later after sitting out the most important 24 minutes of the season thus far.  He may play, but he won't be himself.  The Celtics could get back Robert Williams and are otherwise fully healthy for Game 4 tonight.

Boston is 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  Bet the Celtics in Game 4 Monday.

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

I love the spot for the Mavericks Sunday.  Their season is on the line as they are down 0-2.  They didn't show up in Game 1, but they fought hard in Game 2 and showed they could play with the Warriors.  Golden State was just unconscious in the 2nd half and the Mavericks went cold.

Dallas has been much better at home than on the road in the playoffs as their role players have really stepped up to help out Luka Doncic.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home games while winning those five games by an average of 15.4 points per game.  Dallas is 34-13 SU at home this season as well.

The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Mavericks are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 3 Sunday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-7 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Miami and Boston is definitely evenly matched.

I cashed in the Heat in Game 1 and came back with an easy winner on the Celtics in Game 2 in this series.  Now I'm back on Miami in Game 3.  This is way too big of an adjustment for the Celtics' 25-point blowout win in Game 2.  The Heat go from being 1-point favorites to 6.5-point underdogs, a 7.5-point adjustment which is too big for home-court advantage.

Boston isn't going to shoot 20-of-40 (50%) from 3-point range again, and Miami isn't going to shoot as poorly (10-of-34, 29.4%) from 3-point range as they did in Game 2.  The Heat have been an extremely resilient team all season and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder off that blowout defeat.

Miami is 16-5 ATS following an upset loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 15-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  Miami is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-6 SU & 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

It was a tough spot for the Mavericks in Game 1 coming off their Game 7 win at Phoenix.  They were flat and nothing went right.  They shot 36% from the field and 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3-point range.  Meanwhile, the Warriors shot 56.1% from the field and won in a 112-87 blowout.

But this series will be much more competitive than Game 1 showed.  And now the Warriors go from 5.5-point favorites in Game 1 to 6.5-point favorites in Game 2, which is an overreaction and the wrong adjustment.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Mavericks, who went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Warriors during the regular season.

The Mavericks are 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more this season.  Dallas is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 games following a SU loss.  The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Boston +3.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 13-6 SU & 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Boston and Miami is definitely evenly matched.

These have been my two favorite teams to back in the playoffs because I have believed both are underrated.  They are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA as well.  I cashed in Miami in Game 1, but I'm going the other way with Boston in Game 2.

The Celtics were without both Al Horford and Marcus Smart in Game 1.  Well, Smart is back for Game 2 but they will still be without Horford.  I think they can pull the upset here.  Jimmy Butler went off in Game 1 and won't be nearly as efficient.  It's hard to expect the Heat to shoot 30-of-34 from the FT line again, too.  The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry, plus Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are both banged up.

Boston is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Celtics are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Boston is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -1.5

The spot in Game 1 favors the Miami Heat.  They closed out the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 6 on the road, so they have had the last four days off to rest and recover.  Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics have only one day to rest after beating Milwaukee at home in Game 7 on Sunday.

The Heat have a huge home-court advantage as they are 35-12 SU at home this season, including 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  They have won those nine straight home games by an average of a whopping 17.6 points per game with seven victories by double-digits.

These teams met in a very meaningful game late in the season with home-court advantage on the line and the Heat pulled the 106-98 upset as 5-point road underdogs.  Both teams were pretty much at full strength for that game.  Miami should be the better team in Game 1 tonight given the rest advantage.

Miami is 9-1 ATS following an upset win as a road underdog this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix -6

Just take the home team in every game in this series and you win.  It has been that simple, and it's going to continue to be that simply Sunday with the Phoenix Suns winning in yet another blowout over the Dallas Mavericks at home in Game 7.

The home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the six games in this series.  The Suns only won by 7 in Game 1 but were crushing the Mavericks in the 4th quarter before a meaningless comeback late.  They went on to win by 20 in Game 2 and by 30 in Game 5.  The Mavericks won by 9 in Game 3, by 10 in Game 4 and by 27 in Game 6.  The Suns will now have their revenge in blowout fashion and close out this series.

Phoenix is 11-1 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Suns are 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite this season.  Phoenix is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings, including 10-3 ATS in the last 13 home meetings.  Take the Suns in Game 7 Sunday.

20* Grizzlies/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +8.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have thrived without Ja Morant all season.  They were 20-5 in the regular season without Morant, and now they are 1-1 in this series without him.  They deserved to win in a 98-101 loss at Golden State as 9.5-point dogs in Game 4, but couldn't hit their free throws.

Everything went right for the Grizzlies in their impressive 134-95 rout as 4-point home underdogs at home in Game 5.  And they won't go down without a fight in Game 6 tonight.  There's no way they should be catching 8.5 points against the Warriors tonight.

The Grizzlies are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games overall.  Memphis is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Grizzlies are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as favorites.  Take the Grizzlies Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +2

Home-court advantage really hasn't mattered in this series.  The road team is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the five games.  After blowing a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter of Game 5, I expect the Boston Celtics to come back pissed off in Game 6 to save their season.

The Celtics alongside the Miami Heat have been the two best teams in the Eastern Conference all season.  It's hard to repeat, and I just think the Bucks are way more vulnerable than they were last season, especially without Kris Middleton.  The Celtics are the more complete team and I trust them more, so this series is going to a Game 7.

The Celtics are figuring out how to score on this Milwaukee defense as they have shot 50% or better in two consecutive games.  The Bucks have shot 43.5% or worse in four of the five games in this series, and that's largely due to being up against Boston's 2nd-ranked unit in defensive efficiency.  Few teams are better equipped to guard Giannis than the Celtics with all of the length they can throw at home and stay in front of him.

Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games against a good team that wins 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The Celtics are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  Boston is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Friday.

15* Suns/Mavs ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -1.5

The Phoenix Suns have been the best team in the NBA all season.  They proved they were on another level when they won 110-80 in Game 5.  And now they are ready to close out this series with all the pressure on the Mavericks trying to stave off elimination.

Monte Williams and the Suns have the Mavericks figured out.  They rely so heavily on Luka Doncic, and they need the 'others' to make shots from 3-point range.  That's a lot to ask here with their season on the line.  The Suns can beat you several different ways, and the Mavericks have no answer for DeAndre Ayton inside.

The Suns are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as favorites.  Phoenix is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas.  Take the Suns in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Heat/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +2.5

The Miami Heat are ready to end this streak of the home team winning every game.  They have been the best team in the Eastern Conference all season.  I trust them to show up tonight and close out this series.  They have the 76ers by the balls right now and will take advantage.

You just don't know what you're going to get from the 76ers on a nightly basis.  Joel Embiid got real banged up in their 120-85 Game 5 blowout loss to the Heat.  He won't be 100%.  James Harden was a no-show and continues to falter in the biggest games.  This is their biggest game of the season, and I don't trust him one bit.  Danny Green is hit or miss as well.

Miami is 21-7 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Heat are 17-6 ATS as underdogs this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -5.5

The Phoenix Suns were the best team in the NBA all season.  Nothing has changed now with the Mavericks winning both of their games at home to tie this series at 2-2.  The Suns dominated in Games 1 and 2 at home, and they will dominate in this all-important Game 5 as well.

The Mavericks got all the calls at home in their last two games.  They won't get those calls in Phoenix.  Their role players also won't play nearly as well as they did at home.  The Suns will get better efforts from their role players, and Chris Paul will be pissed off after fouling out in Game 4.  A pissed off Paul is a scary Paul.

Phoenix is a perfect 14-0 ATS in its last 14 games when revenging a loss as a road favorite.  It is coming back to win by a whopping 15.8 points per game in this spot.  Phoenix is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 home meetings.  Take the Suns in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Miami -3

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They won Games 1 and 2 with ease at home by 14 and 16 points.  Now they went on to lose both games in Philadelphia with the return of Joel Embiid, and all of a sudden nobody likes the Heat anymore.  I do, and I'll take advantage by backing them as only 3-point home favorites in Game 5 after they were 7.5-point favorites in Games 1 and 2 at home.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings dating back to the regular season.  The Heat have been tremendous at home this season at 34-12 SU.  They have been the best team in the East all season and I still think they are the best team in the East.  They are one of the most disrespected No. 1 seeds in the history of the NBA.

Miami is 18-8 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Heat are 42-20 ATS in their last 62 playoff games as favorites.  Philadelphia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Miami.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Suns/Mavs TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +1

The Dallas Mavericks are in must-win mode in Game 3 at home tonight.  This is the series, and I expect their best effort of it thus far.  That should be enough to win this game outright against the Phoenix Suns, who lost two games to the Pelicans last series.

The Suns aren't going to shoot as good on the road as they did at home in the first two games of this series.  They shot 50.5% in Game 1 and won by 7, then shot a ridiculous 64.5% in Game 2 including 13-of-25 (52%) from 3-point range.  They are coming off basically a perfect game, and that's going to be hard to follow up.

The Mavericks will be the team playing with more intensity tonight, while the Suns relax a little knowing they are up 2-0 in this series and in good shape.  And the atmosphere will be much more difficult for them to handle in front of a hostile Dallas crowd.  Jason Kidd has done a tremendous job of coaching this season, and I expect him to make the proper adjustments for Game 3 tonight to slow down this Phoenix offense.

Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a blowout road loss by 20 points or more.  It is winning by 16.4 points per game in this spot.  The Mavericks are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 3 Friday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks showed they could play with the Suns in Game 1 when they lost 114-121 as 5.5-point underdogs.  Now they come back as 6.5-point dogs in Game 2 and I like the value we are getting with them in what has to feel like a must-win for them.

We saw the Suns beat the Pelicans 110-99 in Game 1 and come back and lost 114-125 in Game 2 last series.  I think they will be vulnerable tonight after winning Game 1.  I expect the Mavericks to be the team playing with more intensity being down in this series, and that should be enough to stay within this number and possibly pull off the upset.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Indeed, each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  That fact alone shows you there's value with the Mavericks catching 6.5 points tonight as the Suns have had a hard time putting them away, and the Mavericks simply have no quit in them.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a game where it was outrebounded by 15 or more this season.  It is coming back to win by a whopping 16.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Mavericks are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies nearly pulled the upset over the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 despite not playing anywhere near their best game.  They shot just 41-of-95 (43.2%) from the field while the Warriors shot 45-of-93 (48.4%).  They only lost that game 116-117 and had a chance to win at the buzzer.

Look for the Grizzlies to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 tonight.  This has been a very resilient bunch all season.  In fact, the Grizzlies haven't lost more than two in a row since December, which just goes to show how resilient they are.  Memphis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games following a loss.

The Grizzlies are 8-1 ATS in as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season.  The Grizzlies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Memphis is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Grizzlies are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games overall.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Memphis.  Take the Grizzlies in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston -4

The Boston Celtics shot 28-of-84 (33.3%) in Game 1.  That's not going to happen again.  There was clearly a rust factor for them after sweeping the Nets and being off since April 25th.  Look for them to be much sharper on offense, and for them to bring that same defensive intensity they have played with all season.

The Celtics held the Bucks to 37-of-90 (41.1%) shooting and just 101 points in Game 1.  If they can do that again in Game 2, they are going to win and cover with ease.  And that's what I expect to see happen here as they guard the Bucks as well as anyone in the NBA, and they get going offensively.

Boston is a perfect 9-0 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  It is coming back to win by 9.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Milwaukee is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog.  Boston is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6

I was on the Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 in Game 2 after dropping Game 1 to the Timberwolves.  They delivered with a 124-96 blowout victory.  I'm definitely backing the Grizzlies again here in Game 5 as only 6-point home favorites after dropping Game 4 118-119 as 2.5-point road favorites.  Oddsmakers aren't adjusting enough for the spot for the Grizzlies here.

The Timberwolves shot lights out in Game 4 and still only won by a single point.  They shot 47.3% from the field including 18-of-36 (50%) from 3-point range.  Not to mention, they made a whopping 31 free throws.  They played the perfect game at home in Game 4, but they will be far from perfect on the road in Game 5.

Memphis is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Grizzlies are 14-3 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  Memphis is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 home games.  The Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Memphis is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home meetings with Minnesota.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* Raptors/76ers NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +7.5

The Toronto Raptors played two great games in Toronto and really this series should be tied 2-2.  But the 76ers won Game 3 despite not leading a single second in regulation.  And in Game 4 they failed to close out the series when they had the Raptors by the balls.

I think the 76ers are going to regret not closing it out, and the Raptors are live underdogs in Game 5 tonight as 7.5-point dogs.  The FT shooting disparity that gave the 76ers a 2-0 series lead has gone away, and the Raptors have gotten much more aggressive in attacking the rim the past two games.

Joel Embiid is nursing a thumb injury that he is playing through, but he clearly wasn't himself in Game 4.  We've seen Doc Rivers and James Harden collapse in playoff series previously.  All the pressure is on the 76ers to close this out in Game 5 and the Raptors feel like they are free rolling at this point after being down 3-0.  They should come out loose while the 76ers will be tight tonight.

Philadelphia has beaten Toronto by more than 7 points just twice in the last 16 meetings, making for a 14-2 system backing the Raptors pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors in Game 5 Monday.

20* Heat/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Miami -2

The Miami Heat will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 tonight after blowing a double-digit lead in Game 3 in the 4th quarter and letting the Hawks back in this series.  Look for them to shut the door here and get a win and cover in Game 4.

I made the mistake of backing a team that doesn't rebound or play defense in the Nets yesterday.  I'm not making the same mistake today.  The Hawks rank 26th in defensive efficiency while the Heat rank 5th in defensive efficiency.  I'll back the better defensive team here in a game they basically just have to win to cover.

Atlanta is 1-11 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season.  Miami is 17-4 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Miami is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Heat are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 playoff games as favorites.  The Hawks are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games following a win.  Miami is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Heat Sunday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets gave the Boston Celtics all they could handle in Games 1 and 2 in Boston.  Now they are in must-win mode here in Game 3 at home and I expect them to get the win and cover.  It was a hostile atmosphere in Boston with all the controversy surrounding Kyrie Irving and they actually handled themselves pretty well.

It will be a much more friendly atmosphere in Brooklyn this time around, and I expect the Nets' role players to answer the bell here to help out Irving and Kevin Durant.  Durant has been disappointing through two games in this series, but he has too much pride to come up short again.  

He went 4-of-17 in Game 2 and 9-of-24 in Game 1.  That's a combined 13-of-41 (31.7%) through two games.  It's amazing that the Nets had a chance to win both of those games in the closing seconds with Durant playing that poorly.  Look for him to have a monster game to lead the Nets to victory and save their season here tonight.

Brooklyn is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Boston.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

20* 76ers/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Toronto Raptors in Game 4 tonight.  They were 4.5-point road dogs in Game 1, 7.5-point road dogs in Game 2 and 2-point home dogs in Game 3.  They went 0-3 ATS and now are getting their best price of the series as 3.5-point home dogs in Game 4.

Note that they were 4.5-point road dogs at full strength.  They will be at full strength here with the return of Scottie Barnes and are 3.5-point home dogs.  That's a massive adjustment and one that I'll gladly take advantage of.  The Raptors are much better than they have shown in the first three games of this series.

Keep in mind the 76ers didn't lead Game 3 until overtime, so the Raptors were in control of that game even without Barnes.  Getting him back with give them a big offensive punch.  The 76ers will be without Matisse Thybulle, and his defensive presence will be felt.  Joel Embiid is also dealing with a sore thumb, though he's expected to play.

Toronto is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Philadelphia is 9-18 ATS off a road win this season.  The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest.  Philadelphia is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 trips to Toronto.  Take the Raptors Saturday.

20* Suns/Pelicans ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -1

The Phoenix Suns have proven all season that they can win games without Chris Paul and/or Devin Booker.  They won't blink with Booker being out now as they are one of the deepest teams in the entire NBA and work together as a team as well as anyone.

The Suns go from being 10-point favorites in Game 1 to 9.5-point favorites in Game 2 to only 1-point favorites in Game 3.  This is too big of an adjustment for the Booker injury and the home-court advantage for the Pelicans.  The Suns are 32-9 SU on the road this season.

I'm confident the Suns will make the defensive adjustments and the Pelicans will not shoot as well as they did in Game 2.  They shot 54.8% from the field and a ridiculous 17-of-30 (56.7%) from 3-point range.  This is a poor shooting Pelicans team that is only making 33.5% from 3 on the season.

Phoenix is 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more more this season.  The Suns are 14-3 ATS when revenging any loss this season.  Phoenix is 14-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to New Orleans.

Plays against home underdogs (New Orleans) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog with a losing record on the season are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Friday.

20* Bulls/Bucks TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls in Game 2 of this series.  They were disinterested down the stretch and as a result went 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games.  They were pretty much locked into the 5th or 6th seed at that point with nothing to play for.

The Bulls played with a sense of urgency in Game 1 and showed they could hang with the Bucks, losing  86-93 as 10.5-point underdogs.  What really stood out in that game is how poorly the Big 3 of Chicago in Vucevic, DeRozan and LaVine shot the ball and they still only lost by 7.  Those 3 combined to shoot just 21-of-71 (29.6%) from the floor and 4-of-22 (18.2%) from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that poorly again, which makes it likely they cover this 10-point spread.

Milwaukee likely thinks they can just show up and win after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls in the regular season.  That places the Bulls in major revenge mode here.  Also two of those wins and covers came at the end of the season when the Bucks had a lot more to play for in terms of seeding than the Bulls did.  The first two meetings this season were close and decided by 4 and 6 points, similar to the 7-point margin in Game 1 of this series when both teams were 'all in'.

Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Milwaukee.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +2

I love the Toronto Raptors tonight in this must-win situation.  They return home after losing two disappointing, non-competitive games against the 76ers in Philadelphia.  Home-court advantage and coaching adjustment will make all the difference for the Raptors in Game 3 as they win this game outright.

Everything has gone perfect for the 76ers thus far in this series.  They shot 51.2% as a team, 16-of-32 (50%) from 3-point range and 29-of-34 (85.3%) from the FT line in Game 1.  They followed that up with 52.2% shooting, 14-of-30 (64.7%) from 3-point range and 26-of-30 (86.7%) from the FT line in Game 2.

The 76ers are shooting better than the Raptors in this series from 3-point range, and they have attempted 64 FT compared to 35 for the Raptors and made 55 FT compared to 29 for the Raptors.  That has been the difference.  I highly doubt the whistle will go so much in favor of the 76ers in Toronto like it has in Philadelphia in this series.  The 76ers won't have SG Mattisse Thybulle for this one, arguably their best defender.

Toronto is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following two straight losses by 15 points or more.  The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs.  a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Toronto is 4-0 ATS In its last four games as a home underdog.  Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight after getting upset in Game 1.  A lot went right for the Timberwolves in that contest as they scored 130 points and shot 50% as a team, went 16-of-41 (39%) from 3-point range and 24-of-27 (88.9%) from the FT line.

Things couldn't have gone much worse for the Grizzlies, who shot 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3-point range and missed 11 free throws.  They will be much sharper offensively in Game 2, and I look for the Timberwolves to take a step back offensively.  Minnesota won't be able to match Memphis' intensity in this one, either.

Memphis won by 7 and 8 points in its first two home meetings with Minnesota this season.  I look for the Grizzlies to win by 7-plus points again here to cover this 6.5-point spread, and actually expect them to win by double-digits in a rout.

Memphis is 19-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The Grizzlies are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points.  Memphis is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 home meetings with Minnesota.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* Raptors/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Toronto +7.5

This is too big of an adjustment from Game 1 to Game 2 in this series.  The Raptors go from being 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 to 7.5-point dogs in Game 2.  I realize Scottie Barnes is out, but he's not worth 3 points to the spread.

The 76ers played the perfect Game 1 as their role players crushed it and they shot 16-of-32 (50%) from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that well again.  The Raptors are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and underrated head coach Nick Nurse will make the proper adjustments to make them much more competitive in Game 2.

That was a rare blowout in this series.  In fact, each of the previous eight games between the 76ers and Raptors were decided by 7 points or less.  Toronto has only lost one of its last 13 games against Philadelphia by more than 7 points, which makes for a 12-1 system backing the Raptors pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Monday.

20* Bulls/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Chicago +11

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 of this series.  They were disinterested down the stretch and as a result went 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games.  They were pretty much locked into the 5th or 6th seed at that point with nothing to play for.

Now the Bulls will come back with an inspired effort in Game 1 to prove they can play with the defending champs.  I don't see the Bucks playing with that same sense of urgency in these playoffs as they did last year when they won the title.  And that starts to show in Game 1 tonight.

Milwaukee likely thinks they can just show up and win after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls in the regular season.  That places the Bulls in major revenge mode here.  Also two of those wins and covers came at the end of the season when the Bucks had a lot more to play for in terms of seeding than the Bulls did.  The first two meetings this season were close and decided by 4 and 6 points.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (Chicago) - playing with triple revenge and on three or more days' rest are 49-21 (70%) ATS since 1996.  The Bulls are fully healthy now with the exception of Lonzo Ball and ready to get back to how they were playing in the first half of the season.  Bet the Bulls in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Pelicans/Clippers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3.5

Note: Tough break on Paul George being out with COVID.  I still like the Clippers to win the game straight up.  The current line after the news is roughly PK and I would still recommend a bet at or around that number.

The Los Angeles Clippers were playing some of their best basketball of the season coming into their play-in game with the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games of the regular season where they got both Paul George and Norman Powell back from injury.

For 3.5 quarters, the Clippers had the Timberwolves by the balls.  But things changed after Karl-Anthony Towns went out.  The Clippers blew a double-digit lead as the Timberwolves went small ball and switched everything on defense, which the Clippers struggled with.  They will make the proper adjustments, and there is a good chance they get Luke Kennard back from injury to provide a shooting punch.

The Clippers just beat the Pelicans 119-100 at home on April 3rd as 2-point favorites.  That was an important result because both teams were at full strength, which they are now too.  Ingram, McCollum and Valanciunas all played for the Pelicans and all three struggled, combining to go 14-of-35 from the floor for just 44 points.  The Clippers had seven players score in double figures in the win.

The Clippers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Tyronn Lue is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA and I trust him to make the right moves to put the Clippers in position to win and cover this game and advance as the #8 seed in the playoffs.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

20* Spurs/Pelicans ESPN No-Brainer on San Antonio +6

The San Antonio Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 7-4 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  This despite being locked into their playoff spot for a few games and playing backups and resting guys.

The Spurs have really shown off their depth here down the stretch.  They have just one loss by more than 6 points in their last 11 games.  Now they are as healthy as they have been all season with the only guy they are missing being Doug McDermott, who is a defensive liability anyway.

The Pelicans are getting too much credit for how they played down the stretch.  But their last five wins all came against non-playoff teams in the Lakers (twice), Blazers (twice) and Kings.  They lost by 19 points or more to the three playoff teams they played in their final eight games.

The Spurs have owned the Pelicans in this head-to-head series this season.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS with two outright road wins as 6-point road underdogs, which is what they are in this play-in game as well.  Both of those wins have come since mid-February including a win on March 26th in New Orleans.

The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  San Antonio is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  San Antonio is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Spurs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven trips to New Orleans.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the No. 1 ranked team in offensive efficiency since January 1st.  They have been tough to tame when Russell, Towns and Edwards have been healthy.  In fact, they are fully healthy heading into the playoffs and will be a dangerous out for anyone.  This is a much deeper team than they get credit for.

The Clippers are getting a lot of respect after winning five straight games to close out the season.  But only one of those five opponents was actually trying to win the game, and that was the Pelicans.  Four of the wins came at home and the other was a road win over the Bucks' backups.  These five wins have given bettors false hope on this team.

Los Angeles is 1-11 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Timberwolves are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss.  It's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at the Target Center in Minneapolis tonight as these fans have been yearning for a winner for years and they absolutely love this team, and for good reason.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* Cavaliers/Nets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets cannot be trusted laying this big of a number at home.  They don't play defense, so asking them to win by 10-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  I'll gladly take the value with the Cleveland Cavaliers catching 9.5 points in this play-in game.

All four games between the Cavaliers and Nets this season went down to the wire and were decided by 11 points or fewer.  I expect more of the same here in their 5th meeting, and for the Cavaliers to shoot much better than the 29.6% (8-of-27) they shot from 3 in their final meeting of the regular season.

The Cavaliers are 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 games following an ATS win.  The Nets are 6-26-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Brooklyn is a woeful 3-23 ATS in its last 26 games as a home favorite.  Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -9

The Dallas Mavericks are still playing for seeding.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three of the six wins coming against playoff teams.  The six wins have come by an average of 19 points per game.

Now they host a San Antonio Spurs team that has nothing to play for and is locked into the 10th seed in the West.  They will be traveling to face New Orleans in the play-in round on Wednesday.  They are more concerned with resting their players and getting them healthy rather than winning this game.  That's especially the case playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 94-100 home loss to the Warriors last night.

The Mavericks are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  Dallas is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games, including 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  Expect them to roll by double-digits tonight and cover this number.  Take the Mavericks Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -17

The Utah Jazz still have seeding at stake in the West.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the Portland Trail Blazers, who have been blown out on a regular basis and are openly tanking.  Their numbers down the stretch are mind-blowing.

The Blazers are 2-20 SU & 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  A whopping 10 of those losses have come by 30 points or more, and 14 of those losses by 17 points or more.  They lost to the Mavericks by 50 and the Pelicans by 33 in their last two games coming in.

One of those 30-plus point losses came a month ago to the Jazz as they lost 85-123 as 19.5-point road underdogs.  It should be more of the same in the rematch here a month later as nothing has change for the Blazers, and the Jazz still have something to play for.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -5.5

The San Antonio Spurs don't care about winning this game.  That's evident by the fact that they are resting each of their top four scorers in Murray, Johnson, Poeltl and Vassell.  They will also be without Doug McDermott, so they'll be without five of their top six scorers.

The Golden State Warriors are trying to fend off the Dallas Mavericks for the No. 3 seed in the West.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Mavericks.  It's evident the Warriors have been playing with a sense of urgency down the stretch in going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  

Golden State is trying to win this game, and thus I'm willing to lay the 5.5 points on the road with them against a Spurs team that couldn't care less.  San Antonio is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder +9.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after playing a road game at Golden State Thursday night.  They are likely to continue to rest LeBron, Davis and Westbrook and now their lack of depth makes this an even worse spot for them.

One thing you can't say about the Oklahoma City Thunder is that they don't play hard night in and night out.  They have been banged up all season and yet have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA in going 49-29-2 ATS.  They have gone 4-4 SU in their last eight games overall so they are trying to win games here down the stretch.

Asking the woeful Lakers to win by double-digits to beat us here is asking too much.  The Thunder are 27-9 ATS in their last 36 road games.  The Lakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. at eam with a losing record.  Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.  Take the Thunder Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +3.5

Due to losses by the 76ers and Celtics Thursday night, the Miami Heat clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference without even having to play.  It's safe to say the Heat are going to play it cautiously now over the final two games this season and likely rest their starters after achieving their goal of the No. 1 seed.

The Atlanta Hawks still have a lot to play for.  The 7th through 10th seeds in the East are all separated by two games or less.  It is important to get the 7th or 8th seeds so they don't have to win two games, which the 9th and 10th will have to do.  They are currently 9th and tied with the Nets for 8th and one game behind the Cavaliers for 7th.

The Hawks were disappointing most of the regular season, but they have picked up their play here down the stretch.  Indeed, the Hawks are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to the Raptors.  They are in playoff mode right now and should not be underdogs to the Heat given what's at stake for both teams.  Take the Hawks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +14.5

The Houston Rockets have quietly gone 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They haven't lost any of their last eight games by more than 13 points, and only once have they been beaten by more than 7 points.  They continue to show up every night and compete.

That's important when backing a team that's catching 14.5 points.  And the spot couldn't be much worse for the Raptors.  They are coming off a huge 119-114 home win over the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Four starters played at least 37 minutes last night against the 76ers.  Don't be surprised to see some of these starters rest tonight.

Toronto is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Detroit Pistons are 19-1 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs with 10 outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching too many points against the Milwaukee Bucks at home tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons have only lost one of their last 24 games by more than 11 points, and only two losses by more than 9 points.  They have lost just two of their last 19 games by more than 7 points.

The Pistons will be excited to face the defending champs in their final home game of the season.  The Bucks won't be excited for this game, and they will be running on fumes, too.  The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after a huge 127-121 home win over the Celtics last night.  

This game screams letdown spot, and don't be surprised to see the Bucks rest almost all their starters given the difficult rest spot.  The Bucks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on zero rest.  The Pistons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

20* Lakers/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Golden State -12.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  They are ready for this disastrous season to be over.  They will be sitting LeBron James and likely Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook tonight.  I give them almost zero chance of keeping this game competitive against the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors still have a lot to play for.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the 3rd seed in the Western Conference.  They are playing well pulling the upset of the Jazz before crushing the Kings 109-90 on the road.  Now they come in on three days' rest fresh and ready to go tonight.

The Lakers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win.  The Warriors are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 19-0 ATS in their last 19 games as underdogs with 10 outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching a whopping 8.5 points against the Dallas Mavericks at home tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons haven't lost any of their last 23 games by more than 11 points, and only one loss by more than 9 points.  They have lost just one of their last 19 games by more than 7 points, making for an 18-1 system pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks, who are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have a way of playing to their level of competition.  That was evident in their lone loss during this stretch when they were blasted 103-135 at Washington as 7.5-point road favorites.

Detroit is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  They have played up to their level of competition for over a month.  They will be excited about this opportunity on the National TV stage on ESPN and will continue playing their best basketball of the season to stay within this number and possibly pull off yet another upset.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Suns NBA TV No-Brainer on Los Angeles +12

The Los Angeles Lakers should not be catching 12 points against the Phoenix Suns given the discrepancy in motivation.  The Lakers are in must-win mode if they want to make the playoffs and took the Nuggets to the wire last time out even without LeBron James.

The Phoenix Suns are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the West and have absolutely nothing to play for.  That has showed in their level of play the last two games.  They lost outright 114-122 at Memphis as 7.5-point favorites and followed it up with an outright 96-117 loss as 14-point favorites at short-handed Oklahoma City.  Why would they show up tonight?  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9.5

The San Antonio Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season trying to make the playoffs here down the stretch.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Spurs should not be catching 9.5 points against the Denver Nuggets with how well they are playing right now.  This game means a lot more to the Spurs than it does the Nuggets.  This is a Denver team that has been overvalued for weeks, going just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

San Antonio is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Spurs are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games as road underdogs of 6.5 to 12 points.  San Antonio is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 trips to Denver.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +17.5

The Brooklyn Nets shouldn't be favored by 17 points over anyone.  They have been disappointing down the stretch despite having both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving healthy.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming by 7 points over the Detroit Pistons as 14-point home favorites.

The problem with the Raptors right now is they have key injuries to their role players.  Seth Curry, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic and James Johnson are all on the injury report.  Without being at full strength, the Nets are going to have a problem putting away the Rockets by 18-plus points to cover this number.

Houston has quietly gone 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall and has not packed it in.  The Rockets haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 7 points.  That includes a 7-point loss to the Timberwolves as 13.5-point underdogs last time out.

Brooklyn is a woeful 5-24-1 ATS in its last 30 home games, including 4-23 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite.  The Nets can't be laying 17.5 points here.  Take the Rockets Tuesday.

20* UNC/Kansas Championship Game No-Brainer on Kansas -4

The Kansas Jayhawks have been dominant in their last two games.  They beat Miami 76-50 before taking a 10-0 lead against Villanova and never looking back in an 81-65 victory.  They have really impressed me defensively down the stretch, allowing 72 or fewer points in 10 consecutive games, including 68 or fewer in nine of those.  They now have the defensive ability to match their tremendous offensive ability.

The North Carolina Tar Heels have also been impressive in pulling three upsets to make the title game as the 8th seed.  They have been undervalued up to this point, but now they will meet their match in the Kansas Jayhawks.  A couple factors have me thinking the Tar Heels cannot hang with the Jayhawks.

The main one is the injury to UNC's most important player in Armando Bacot.  He suffered an ankle injury late in the win over Duke and was noticeably limping up and down the court when he came back into the game.  He won't be anywhere near 100%.  Bacot has 30 double-doubles this season and is one shy of David Robinson's record.  They will miss his defense and rebounding when he's hobbling around out there.

There's no such thing as a letdown in a title game.  But with all the hype surrounding their win over rival Duke, it's going to be hard for the Tar Heels to match the intensity they played with in that back-and-forth game here just two days later.  They had to play in the late game while Kansas got to sit around and watch, and the Jayhawks will be the fresher, more prepared team because of it.  Bet Kansas Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -14

The Portland Trail Blazers are openly tanking.  They are 2-16 SU & 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall with eight losses by 30 points or more and 12 losses by 14 points or more.  They have nine players on the injury report that are out, plus they traded away McCollum, Powell and Covington.

The San Antonio Spurs are battling with the Los Angeles Lakers for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They have come up clutch down the stretch in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 133-96 win at Portland on March 23rd and a 130-111 home win over Portland on April 1st.

I like knowing that the Spurs won't be taking the Blazers lightly given what's at stake for them, which is why I'm willing to lay this big of a number.  It should be more of the same here with yet another win by 15-plus points to cover this number.  Roll with the Spurs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5

The New York Knicks have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  They played like it yesterday in their 101-119 upset home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Now they'll have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back with eight players on the injury report.  They shut down Julius Randle for the season.

The Magic aren't playing great, but the spot favors them and they shouldn't be 5-point home underdogs to a Knicks team that doesn't care about wins and is tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  This is their most winnable game left on the schedule and I fully expect them to take advantage.

Orlando is 14-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  The Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss.  New York is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Magic Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer Los Angeles +3

It's now or never for the Los Angeles Lakers if they want to make the playoffs.  LeBron James, Anthony Davis and company have too much pride to go away quietly.  I think we are getting the Lakers are one of their best values of the season as home underdogs to the Denver Nuggets tonight.

This is an inconsistent Nuggets team that doesn't deserve to be favored on the road here.  The Nuggets are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have not done well when they have stepped up in class, and they have narrow wins over some bad teams recently in the Thunder, Hornets and Pacers.

The Lakers have lost five straight coming in, but all five were to playoff contenders in the 76ers, Pelicans (twice), Mavericks and Jazz.  And they didn't have AD and LeBron for any of those games except the 3-point loss to the Pelicans.  They will have better chemistry in their 2nd game back together, and they should pull the upset today at home to stay alive for the playoffs.

Denver is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after four straight games where it had five or more rebounds than its opponent.  The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Los Angeles.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas -4

The Kansas Jayhawks showed their true potential when they outscored Miami by 32 in the second half to win 76-50 and claim their spot in the Final Four.  They have really impressed me defensively down the stretch, allowing 72 or fewer points in nine consecutive games, including 68 or fewer in eight of those.  They now have the defensive ability to match their tremendous offensive ability.

Give Villanova credit for making it this far despite really only going six deep consistently.  But now they suffered a huge blow with the loss of G Justin Moore, who suffered a torn achilles in the win over Houston last round.  Moore (15.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is someone they could not afford to lose.  Now their lack of depth is exacerbated with the loss of Moore, and I give them little to no chance of keeping this game with Kansas competitive.

Kansas is 8-0 ATS vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game after 15-plus games over the past three seasons.  The Wildcats will fall behind in this game and they won't be able to play catch up without Moore.  His loss isn't being factored enough into this line.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls right now.  They have gone through their worst stretch of the season over the past month.  But they are now as healthy as they have been all season with only Lonzo Ball being out.  And they have shown they can play well without him.

The Clippers are getting too much respect due to getting Paul George back and completing a huge comeback to beat the Utah Jazz at home on Tuesday.  They had gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous five games overall.

The key here is the Bulls are the more motivated team.  They have a lot more to play for sitting in the 5th spot trying to move up to 4th or at least avoid falling into the play-in round.  The Clippers are essentially locked in to the 8th seed in the West, 5.5 games behind 7th seed Minnesota and 4 games ahead of 9th seed New Orleans.  They really don't have anything to play for until the playoffs.

Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  Chicago is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite.  The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 17-0 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs with eight outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching a whopping 10 points against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons haven't lost any of their last 20 games by more than 11 points, and only one loss by more than 9 points.  That makes for a 19-1 system backing the Pistons pertaining to this 10-point spread.

Philadelphia just played two of the best teams in the NBA and the two teams that made the NBA Finals in the Suns and Bucks in back-to-back games.  They came up short in both, and now they'll have a hard time getting motivated to face the Pistons after losing to those two.  This is also a tired Philadelphia team playing their 11th game in 19 days.  Take the Pistons Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -13.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are openly tanking.  They are 2-14 SU & 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall with eight losses by 30 points or more and 11 losses by 14 points or more.  They have nine players on the injury report that are out, plus they traded away McCollum, Powell and Covington.

The Pelicans are fighting to make the playoffs right now as they are currently 9th in the West just one game ahead of the Spurs and Lakers.  One of those three teams will not make the playoffs, and the Pelicans are playing with a sense of urgency right now that has them playing some of their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Pelicans are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  They beat the Spurs by 33, upset the Hawks on the road, beat the Bulls by 17 at home and beat the Lakers by 8 at home.  They just got Brandon Ingram back from injury and his addition will make them a dangerous team moving forward.  Former Blazer McCollum will not be taking this game lightly, and neither will his teammates given what's at stake.

Portland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after allowing 130 points or more.  The Blazers are 1-9 ATS following a loss by 6 points or less this season.  The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Blazers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +5.5

The Miami Heat put their differences aside and crushed Sacramento 123-100 at home on Monday.  They realize they are in 1st place in the East with three teams within 1.5 games of them.  They have a great opportunity to get home-court advantage down the stretch, and I look for them to put it all on the line tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Heat after going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The Heat want revenge from two blowout losses to the Celtics in their two meetings this season.  They won't have to deal with Robert Williams, who suffered a meniscus tear two games ago and is one of the more underrated players in the league.  The Celtics will take a big hit defensively without his presence moving forward.

Miami is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 road games after losing three of its last four games coming in.  The Heat are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Miami is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 trips to Boston.  It will be good for them to get on the road and get away from the distractions at home here.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +3.5

The Orlando Magic are 7-9 SU & 9-7 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have not packed it in.  They have been competitive in most their losses during this stretch.  This is a favorable spot for them playing just their 3rd game in 7 days as they will be rested and ready to go.

The same cannot be said for the Wizards, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 94-107 home loss to the Chicago Bulls last night.  The Wizards will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA today.  They should not be favored over the Magic given this terrible rest spot for them.

Orlando is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover five or six of its last seven ATS this season.  The Magic are 19-9 ATS in road games when revenging a loss this season.  Washington is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a favorite.  The Wizards are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Orlando is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Washington.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +14

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 16-0 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs with eight outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching a whopping 14 points against the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons haven't lost any of their last 19 games by more than 11 points, making for a 19-0 system backing them pertaining to this 14-point spread.

The Nets don't have a lot to play for here down the stretch.  They are basically going to be anywhere from the 7 seed to the 10 seed to where they have to play in the play-in round no matter what.  Of course, it's beneficial for them to get the 7 or the 8 over the 9 or the 10, but I don't think they will be playing with an extra sense of urgency.

The Nets are 5-22-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Brooklyn is 5-23 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Pistons are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

20* St. Bonaventure/Xavier NIT No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure -1.5

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have had the much tougher path to the NIT semifinals than the Xavier Musketeers have.  They are the better team as well and should be bigger than 1.5-point favorites over the Musketeers in essentially a pick the winner situation.

The Bonnies are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have pulled off three straight outright upsets on the road as underdogs in the NIT over Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia just to get here.  You know this veteran team that returned all five starters from last year's NCAA Tournament team isn't about to squander this opportunity now.  They are 'all in' to win the NIT and this will be their easiest test yet.

Xavier has been grossly overvalued in the 2nd half of the season.  The Musketeers are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They are just 4-6 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They got to play three straight home games in the NIT to get here against Cleveland State, Florida, and Vanderbilt.  And they were in dog fights with Cleveland State (won by 4) and Vanderbilt (won by 2).  Keep in mind they lost their best player in their win over Florida in Paul Scruggs (11.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.0 APG) and he is out for the remainder of the tournament.

The Bonnies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as favorites.  The Musketeers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.  Xavier is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bonnies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as neutral court favorites or PK.  St. Bonaventure is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet St. Bonaventure Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +13

The Miami Heat are falling apart at the seams.  They got in a big argument on the sidelines in their 104-118 upset loss at 10-point favorites to Golden State.  Then they came back and blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, getting outscored 38-13 to close to lose 103-111 to the New York Knicks as 9.5-point home favorites.

The Heat went on to lost 95-110 at home to the Nets and that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would suggest as they trailed by 28 entering the 4th quarter.  The Heat are now 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and cannot be trusted right now to lay this big of a number to the Sacramento Kings given their chemistry issues.

The Kings have quietly been a money maker down the stretch and have flexed their depth without Fox and Sabonis.  Sacramento is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The last three games have been very impressive.  They took Phoenix to OT in a 3-point home loss as 8-point dogs, upset Indiana on the road as 6-point dogs and upset the Magic on the road as 2.5-point dogs.

Sacramento is rested and ready to go playing just its 3rd game in 8 days tonight.  Miami will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Heat are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Kings are 49-33 ATS in their last 82 games as road underdogs, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games in this role.  The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.  Sacramento is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Kings Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls after going 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  I cashed them outright as underdogs at Cleveland on Saturday, and I'm back on them again here Monday as only 3.5-point road favorites over the New York Knicks.

While the Bulls had yesterday off and are fully healthy with the exception of Lonzo Ball, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls after a 104-102 road win at Detroit yesterday and now having to travel back to New York.

It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the Knicks, who have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.  That's why they are getting some respect here with such a short number.  But the Bulls are far and away the better team and in the much better spot.  Chicago also has a lot more to play for in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Chicago is 18-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  New York is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following a win.  The Knicks are 2-13 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Bulls are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as favorites.  New York is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games, including 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* 76ers/Suns Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia +5

The Philadelphia 76ers have a lot to play for right now.  They are percentage points ahead of the Miami Heat for the No. 1 seed in the East with four teams within 0.5 games of each other for that top spot.

The Phoenix Suns have nothing to play for right now.  They have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and the No. 1 seed overall in the playoffs.  If they continue playing at the high level they have been all season, more power to them.  But I'm willing to bet against that here down the stretch.

The 76ers are starting to form a nice chemistry with James Harden on board now.  They have gone 12-4 SU in their last 16 games overall and are coming off a 25-point road win over the Clippers on Friday.  Look for them to take the Suns to the wire on the road tonight and likely pull off the upset.

Plays on road teams (Philadelphia) - when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that is off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 55-24 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The 76ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last even games as a road underdog.  Roll with the 76ers Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the hottest teams in the NBA.  They have gone 11-3 SU & 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve as 6.5-point road underdogs to the Boston Celtics today.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games overall.  But unlike the Timberwolves, they are getting that respect.  This line should be much closer to PK.  I'll gladly take the value with the road underdogs here.

Minnesota is a perfect 9-0 ATS in Sunday games this season.  Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after covering four of its last five ATS.  The Celtics are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Pistons +4

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 15-0 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs with eight outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are a home dog to the New York Knicks tonight when they shouldn't be.

The Knicks are five games out of the playoffs in the East with 10 games to play.  They are all but eliminated.  But they are getting respect here as road favorites off two straight upset road wins over the Hornets as 8.5-point dogs and the Heat as 9.5-point dogs.    Now they come back as 4-point road favorites at Detroit, which is too big of an adjustment considering this obvious letdown spot.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

20* Miami/Kansas Elite 8 No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The ACC has proven to be the most underrated conference in the NCAA Tournament with three teams in the Elite 8.  And Miami has been the most underrated team in the ACC this season.  Note that they beat UNC by 28 and upset Duke on the road as 15-point underdogs while also losing to Duke by just 4 as 8.5-point dogs in the ACC Tournament.

I was on Miami in their first two NCAA Tournament games as they upset both USC and Auburn.  I regret not taking them against Iowa State, too.  I won't make that mistake here as I will back the Hurricanes catching too many points against Kansas.  These are two mediocre defensive teams that can light you up on offense and I think this line should be much closer to a PK.

Miami has some of the best guards in the country and I actually favor their guards over Kansas here.  Remy Martin will be a defensive liability for Kansas.  McGusty (17.5 PPG, Wong 15.5 PPG and Moore (12.5 PPG) are all studs, and big man Waardenburg (43.4% 3-pointers) is a matchup nightmare.  In fact, each of Miami's five starters all shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

Kansas has had the much easier path to the Elite 8 and has struggled to put away each of the last two teams after blowing out Texas Southern.  They only beat Creighton 79-72 as 12.5-point favorites, and that was a Creighton team missing two starters.  They only beat Providence 66-61 as 6.5-point favorites, and the Friars were fortunate to make it this far winning so many close games this year.  Look for this game to go down to the wire against Miami as well.

The Hurricanes are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs, including 11-2 ATS as underdogs this season.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games as an underdog.  Kansas is 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.  The Hurricanes are 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  Roll with Miami Sunday.

15* Arkansas/Duke Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +4

Duke had about everything go right for them in their Sweet 16 comeback win over Texas Tech down the stretch.  They couldn't miss a shot or a free throw.  Their zone defense confused Texas Tech in the 2nd half as they weren't prepared for it.  Arkansas will be prepared for everything, and Duke won't be catching them by surprise here, nor will they be as hot as they were down the stretch of that game.

Arkansas proved what it was capable of with a 74-68 win over Gonzaga as 9.5-point underdogs last round.  The Razorbacks basically just continued playing they way they have all 2nd half of this season.  Indeed, they are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games overall with two of those losses by 4 points or less.  So they have lost just one of their last 21 games by more than 4 points, making for a 20-1 system backing the Razorbacks pertaining to this 4-point spread.

Duke is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall and playing some terrible defense down the stretch.  The Blue Devils have allowed 73 or more points in six of their last seven games.  Arkansas is the much better defensive team, ranking 11th in the country in adjusted defense.  They have allowed 76 or fewer points in 19 of their last 21 games, and 68 or fewer in 12 of those.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team catching points here.

Duke is 0-6 ATS vs. teams that make 31% or less of their 3-pointers over the last two seasons.  Arkansas is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  The Blue Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.  Coach K is 1-5 all-time in the Pacific Time Zone in the NCAA Tournament.  This will be the Razorbacks' 2nd consecutive trip to the Elite 8 so they have that experience, and they will have just that extra motivation to make the Final 4 this time around.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls.  They have gone just 3-10 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They should be favored here over the Cleveland Cavaliers considering they are finally as healthy as they have been in a long time and get DeMar DeRozan back from injury tonight.  The only key player they are missing is Lonzo Ball, who they have been without for a long time.

The Cavaliers are the team with the big injury concerns, playing without Jarrett Allen, Rajon Rondo and Dean Wade.  They have not been playing well without Allen.  They are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They needed a late rally to beat the Pistons by 4 as 6-point home favorites, lost to the Lakers by 11 as 4.5-point home favorites and lost to the Raptors by 13 as 5-point road dogs in their last three games coming in.

The Bulls have crushed the Cavaliers in their last two meetings, winning 117-104 and 101-91.  Chicago is 33-15 ATS in the last 48 meetings.  The Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 trips to Cleveland.  Cleveland is 18-47-2 ATS in its last 67 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3.5

The Miami Heat are falling apart at the seams.  They got in a big argument on the sidelines in their 104-118 upset loss at 10-point favorites to Golden State.  Then they came back last night and blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, getting outscored 38-13 to close to lose 103-111 to the New York Knicks as 9.5-point home favorites.

The Heat can't be trusted in this spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, the Brookyn Nets come in rested and ready to go playing on two days' rest and just their 3rd game in 8 days.

The Nets will have Kyrie Irving for this game, and they just got the news that he will be allowed to play in home games.  This team has a lot of good mojo right now because of that news, plus they have both Seth Curry and Goran Dragic healthy for this one.  I like for them to run the Heat out of the building tonight and take advantage of their tired legs.

The Nets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and have really formed a nice chemistry with Irving on the highway.  Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall and reeling.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

20* Houston/Villanova Elite 8 No-Brainer on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars look like the best team in the country.  They have gone 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their wins over UAB by 14, Illinois by 15 and Arizona by 12 in the NCAA Tournament couldn't have been any more impressive.

You can rely on the Cougars to be the tougher team and the better defensive team every time they hit the floor, and that can take you a long way.  They rank 10th in the country in adjusted defense and 8th in adjusted offense.  Nothing ever comes easy against the Cougars, and they are tough to defend on offense because they are so balanced.

Villanova has faced the easier path to this point by far, beating Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan.  They have managed to get by those last two teams in close affairs thanks to some clutch FT shooting down the stretch.  But I don't expect them to have the lead down the stretch to put that FT shooting on display.  And the Wildcats really only go six deep, so I expect the Cougars to wear them down, especially having to play their 2nd game in 3 days here.

Houston is 9-1 ATS in neutral court games this season.  Villanova is 1-7 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  This will also essentially be a home game for the Cougars being played in San Antonio, TX.  I just love this Houston team and I'm willing to ride them as far as they will take me as long as the price is right, and it's right here as a short favorite.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* UNC/UCLA Sweet 16 No-Brainer on on UNC +2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their lone loss coming to ACC champion Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament.  That includes a 94-81 upset win at Duke as 11-point underdogs and a 95-63 blowout win over Marquette in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

The Tar Heels proved none of this was a fluke with their 93-86 (OT) upset win over No. 1 seed and defending national champion Baylor in the Round of 32.  And that game wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate.  The Tar Heels led by 25 in the 2nd half before Brady Manek was inexplicably thrown out of the game, and PG Caleb Love fouled out.  Give the Tar Heels credit for surviving those two key losses and winning the OT.  That kind of win will give this team the confidence they need to beat UCLA Friday.

After a 57-53 scare as a 13.5-point favorite against Akron, everything went right for UCLA in its 72-56 win over St. Mary's last round.  The Bruins shot 56.5% as a team against a very good St. Mary's defense, which is definitely fluky.  They used their athleticism to dominate the Gaels.  That won't work against the Tar Heels, who are one of the most athletic, talented teams in the country.  It also won't help that UCLA's best player in Jaime Jaquez Jr. is nursing and ankle injury suffered against the Gaels and won't be 100% for this one.

UCLA is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 vs. ACC opponents.  The Bruins are 3-10 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better this season.  The Tar Heels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Carolina Friday.

20* Mavs/Timberwolves NBA No-Brainer on Minnesota -1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been one of the best teams in the NBA over the past month.  They have gone 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they are currently the 7th seed in the West and only one game back of the Nuggets for the 6th seed, which would have them avoiding the play-in round.

I love the spot for the Timberwolves tonight.  They are coming off two straight painful losses blowing a 13-point halftime lead to the Suns and also losing 108-110 at Dallas the game prior.  Now they get their shot at revenge on the Mavericks at home this time around.  Minnesota is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games with all six wins coming by 14 points or more and that lone loss to the Suns, the best team in the NBA.

Minnesota is 17-5 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  The Timberwolves are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2.5

The Detroit Pistons have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA down the stretch.  They have gone 15-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and are coming off a 122-101 upset home win as 5-point underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.  

When they have Jerami Grant and Cade Cunningham on the floor at the same time, they have been a force.  The Pistons have been competitive in each of their last 16 games during this run not once losing by more than 11 points.  They should handle the Washington Wizards tonight.

The Wizards look to be tanking.  They are just 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  This is a tough spot for the Wizards as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 102-114 loss in Milwaukee last night in which the Bucks were without Giannis and Middleton.  They won't have much left in the tank for Detroit tonight.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -7

The New York Knicks just suffered a devastating loss to the Atlanta Hawks last night in which they blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have essentially been eliminated from playoff contention with that defeat, and they won't have much left in the tank for the Hornets tonight.

The Knicks are likely to be without Julius Randle again tonight.  They take on a red hot Hornets team that is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four wins by double-digits.  Charlotte will use its up-tempo style to take advantage of the tired legs of the Knicks.  The Hornets rank 4th in the NBA in pace and have a lot to play for right now, so motivation is on their side as well.

Charlotte has owned New York in two meetings this season.  They won 104-96 at home and 97-87 on the road.  Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with New York.  The Hornets are rested right now and are 15-6 ATS when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  The Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +4.5

The Detroit Pistons continue to battle.  They have gone 7-8 SU & 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall with all eight losses coming by 11 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in every game.  They get Jerami Grant back from injury tonight and have a great chance to upset the Atlanta Hawks.

This is a terrible spot for the Hawks.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-111 win in New York last night.  They needed a double-digit 4th quarter comeback to win that game, so they had to expend max energy.  The Hawks will also be playing their 7th game in 11 days and won't have anything left in the tank for the Pistons tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Detroit is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Atlanta including upset victories as 8-point dogs and 4.5-point dogs in the last two.

The Hawks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  The Pistons are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games when their opponent scored 100 or more points in their previous game.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

15* Clippers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with a 3-point loss to Toronto and an OT loss at Cleveland while also getting blown out at Utah last time out.  Now the Clippers will be rested and refocused coming in on three days' rest having last played on Friday.

Look for a big effort from the Clippers, and it should be good enough to stay within this 7-point spread of the struggling Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets are just 2-4 SU in their last six games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are coming off a 20-point home loss to Boston.  They are a tired team right now playing their 10th game in 17 days, so it's easy to see why they have been struggling.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent meetings.  Each of the last last five meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, and all three meetings this season were decided by 3 points or fewer.  Given that head-to-head history, there's clearly value on the Clippers tonight, especially coming in on three days' rest.

The Clippers are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games playing on three or more days' rest.  The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Denver is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  Take the Clippers Tuesday.

15* Vanderbilt/Xavier NIT ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt +2.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are happy to be playing in the NIT with a 19-16 record this season.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes upset wins over Ole Miss and Alabama and only a 6-point loss to a very good Kentucky team in the SEC Tournament.  They handled their business against Dayton and Belmont in the first two rounds of the NIT.

Xavier is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall with four losses by double-digits and an upset loss to Butler in the Big East Tournament.  They survived Cleveland State by 4 as 11-point favorites and then beat Florida thanks to the Gators shooting just 32.8% from the field.  They won't be so fortunate against Vanderbilt, the best team they have faced in the NIT thus far.  They may not have their best player in Paul Scruggs (11.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.0 APG), who suffered a knee injury against Florida and is questionable.

Vanderbilt is 6-1 ATS in all tournament games this season.  The Commodores are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vanderbilt is 33-16-4 ATS in its last 53 games overall.  Vanderbilt is 10-1 ATS in road games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Vanderbilt is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games overall.  The Musketeers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Xavier is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Bucks NBA No-Brainer on Chicago +7.5

I cashed the Bulls -3 over the Raptors last night and I'm back on them again tonight against the Bucks.  They are as healthy as they have been basically all season and a dangerous team moving forward.  I'm not concerned they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back because of this health and the fact that they had two days off prior to that 113-99 win over the Raptors.

The Bucks are the team with injury concerns.  They do get Giannis Antetokounmpo back from a knee injury tonight, but they will be without their second-best player in Khris Middleton tonight due to a wrist injury.  They should not be 7.5-point favorites over the Bulls without Middleton.

Each of the last three meetings between Chicago and Milwaukee have been decided by 6 points or less and have come down to the wire.  The Bulls have lost both meetings this season by 4 as 11-point road dogs and by 6 as 5-point home dogs.  They want some revenge here in their third meeting with their hated rivals.

Milwaukee is 2-11 ATS in home games following a non-conference game this season.  The Bucks are 1-11 ATS when playing against a team that wins between 51% and 60% of their games this season.  Chicago is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 trips to Milwaukee.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now.  They are 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with nine wins by 9 points or more.  Teams haven't even been competitive with them.

Now the Timberwolves find themselves as underdogs to the Dallas Mavericks.  This is a rested Timberwolves team that will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are almost fully healthy with the exception of Jaden McDaniels, and they are playing with a ton of chemistry right now.

The Mavericks are going the other way.  They are coming off two straight blowout road loss to Philadelphia by 10 and Charlotte by 21.  Now they return home after a five-game road trip, and I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip because there are distractions they have to deal with at home.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls -3

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are highly motivated for a victory coming off three straight road losses at Sacramento, Utah and Phoenix.  Now they are back home where they are 25-10 SU & 23-12 ATS this season.

The Bulls also come in rested and ready to go on two days' rest.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time with the only player they are missing being Lonzo Ball.  They are expected to get Patrick Williams back from injury today and will be a force moving forward in the East.

This is a terrible spot for the Raptors, while will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off an upset win in Philadelphia last night.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Raptors, who simply cannot have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.  Expect Chicago to run them out of the building.

Chicago is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following two straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 50% or higher.  The Bulls are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as home favorites.  Chicago is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 meetings with Toronto, including 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -7.5

The Detroit Pistons have made me more money than any team in the NBA over the past month and it's not close.  I'm going to continue to ride them today.  The Pistons are 14-0 ATS in their last 13 games overall as long as you bet them early in their 4-point loss to the Clippers as closing 3.5-point dogs, which we did.

The Pistons come in rested having yesterday off and take on a tired Portland Trail Blazers team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-129 loss in Indiana last night in which they got blown out by 19 in the 4th quarter.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons tonight.

The Blazers are just 1-10 SU in their last 11 games overall with nine losses by 9 points or more, so they have rarely been competitive.  It's easy to see why considering they are so short-handed right now with six players out and two questionable, plus they traded away CJ McCollum, Norman Powell and Robert Covington.  This is one of the worst rosters in the NBA right now.  Take the Pistons Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami +7.5

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They did their best work away from home this season going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in true road games, and 14-5 SU & 13-6 ATS in all games away from home. 

Miami upset the likes of Duke 76-74 as 15-point road dogs, UNC 85-57 as 2.5-point home dogs, VA Tech 78-75 as 5-point road dogs, Wake Forest 76-72 as 6.5-point road dogs and Syracuse 75-72 as 1.5-point road dogs.  They also took Duke to the wire again in the ACC Tournament, only losing 76-80 as 8.5-point dogs.  Then they upset USC in the opening round as 2-point dogs.

The Hurricanes are 18th in adjusted offense and will be a matchup nightmare for the Trojans.  They have five shooters on the floor at all times including big man Sam Wardenburg, who shoots 43.4% from 3 and will force Walker Kessler away from the basket on defense.  All five starters for the Hurricanes shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

Auburn has been grossly overvalued down the stretch in going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Tigers should not be laying 7.5 points to the Hurricanes today.  Miami is 23-8-1 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog, including 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as underdogs.  Auburn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  This one will go down to the wire tonight folks.  Roll with Miami Sunday.

15* Iowa State/Wisconsin CBB No-Brainer on Iowa State +5

It has been a bad look for the Wisconsin Badgers in their last three games.  They lost outright to Nebraska as 13.5-point favorites, lost outright to Michigan State as 3.5-point favorites and needed a late surge to put away Colgate 67-60 as 7.5-point favorites, failing to cover.

The Badgers have been one of the luckiest teams in the country this season winning almost all of their close games, so their record is inflated.  They actually rank 7th in KenPom's luck factor, and he makes them less than a 1-point favorite over Iowa State on a neutral.  I agree with that number and think there's value with the Cyclones here.

Iowa State struggles against explosive offensive teams with athletic big men.  That's not Wisconsin.  The Badgers rely on defense and play at one of the slowest tempos in the country.  They are very similar to LSU, which Iowa State upset 59-54.  This is going to be another ugly, low-scoring defensive battle where points are at a premium.  I always like siding with the dog in this spot.

Iowa State is a perfect 14-0 SU in non-conference games this season with upset wins over Xavier, Memphis, Creighton, Iowa and LSU.  The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games as underdogs.  The Badgers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine neutral site games as favorites.  Bet Iowa State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -1.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are happy to be playing in the NIT with a 18-16 record this season.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes upset wins over Ole Miss and Alabama and only a 6-point loss to a very good Kentucky team in the SEC Tournament.

Dayton has some key injuries that I don't think they'll be able to overcome here on the road against an underrated team from the SEC.  The Commodores are fully healthy and will have a big home-court advantage here as the fans are excited to see this team in the postseason.  I watched them handle Belmont last round and bet on them, and I'm backing them here again as a short home favorite.

Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds in their previous game.  Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS in all tournament games this season.  The Commodores are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vanderbilt is 33-15-4 ATS in its last 52 games overall.  Roll with Vanderbilt Sunday.

20* Houston/Illinois CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Houston -4.5

The Houston Cougars are a legit national title contender.  They are consistently undervalued in the NCAA Tournament.  The Cougars have gone 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and won the AAC Tournament by winning all three games by double-digits.  Then they beat a very good mid-major team in UAB by 14.

Illinois was fortunate to even advance to face Houston.  They only led for 25 seconds against UT-Chattanooga and managed to pull out the 54-53 victory.  They won't be so fortunate against one of the best teams in the country here in Houston.  

The Fighting Illini are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been consistently overvalued.  They don't have the guards to match these elite Houston guards.  The Cougars have the big men inside to stifle Kofi Cockburn.  So the difference in this game is Houston is going to dominate Illinois on the perimeter.

Houston is 7-1 ATS in neutral court games this season and 24-9 ATS in its lsat 33 neutral site games.  The Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Sunday games.  Bet Houston Sunday.

20* Memphis/Gonzaga CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +10.5

Gonzaga got a tough draw having to face this red-hot Memphis team in the Round of 32.  The Bulldogs are legitimately on upset alert because the Tigers are showing down the stretch how good they can be when they play up to their talent potential.

Memphis is 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games overall with its only losses coming to Houston and SMU.  Note that Memphis also upset Houston twice during the regular season before losing in the AAC Championship Game to the Cougars, which is too be expected.  They also avenged a loss to SMU with a win over the Mustangs in the conference tournament.  Then they made easy work of Boise State in the opening round leading by double-digits throughout.

Gonzaga actually trailed Georgia State with 13 minutes to go before going on a crazy run to make the final score look like a blowout when it was really a competitive game.  The Bulldogs failed to cover the spread and are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I just don't think this Gonzaga team is nearly as dominant as last year's version that made it to the National Championship Game.

Memphis has the athletes that are going to give the slower Bulldogs problems.  Jalen Duren has the size inside that will make life way more difficult on Gonzaga big men Timme and Holmgren.  Things won't come as easy for them as they are used to due to the size and athleticism of Memphis as a whole.

The Tigers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs.  Memphis is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games and remember, they won the NIT last year so they have that experience that has helped them this postseason.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Memphis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers.  Take Memphis Saturday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa +6

Northern Iowa is a veteran team loaded with seniors that returned all five starters from last season.  They were disappointed they didn't make the NCAA Tournament, but they are putting all their chips in one basket to try and win that NIT.

That was evident in their 80-68 road win at St. Louis as 3.5-point underdogs in the opener.  St. Louis has one of the best home-court advantages in the country, so that win was no small feat.  Now they are catching 6 points at BYU and I don't think BYU is any better than St. Louis.

Northern Iowa is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  BYU is disappointed to be playing in the NIT after choking down the stretch, going 6-6 SU in its last 12 games overall with all six wins coming as a favorite of 7 points or more, including five as double-digit favorites in games they were supposed to win.  They were also upset outright three times as favorites.

The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Northern Iowa is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  BYU is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* St. Peter's/Murray State CBB No-Brainer on Murray State -8

The Murray State Racers are 31-2 this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and East Tennessee State in the non-conference.  They were competitive at Auburn, too.  They also upset Memphis and Belmont on the road in the non-conference and were dominant all season with a perfect conference record.

Look for the Racers to make easy work of a St. Peter's team that is coming off a historic upset over Kentucky on Thursday.  It's very common for teams that pull a huge upset in the first round to fall flat in the second round.  I think that will be the case for the Peacocks here.  Murray State is a legitimate Final 4 contender, while St. Peter's is a one-hit wonder.

It was a bad look for the Peacocks in the non-conference as they lost to Stony Brook, Siena, St. Francis-NY, St. John's by 21 and Providence by 14.  Keep in mind Kentucky led by 8 with just a couple minutes left before falling in OT.  And Murray State led by 9 over San Francisco with three minutes left before foul trouble and injuries had the Dons making the comeback to force OT.  But Murray State is back to full strength for this game as they got lucky in the injury department coming out of that game unscathed.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (St. Peter's) - after four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 65-27 (70.7%) ATS since 1997.  Murray State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Racers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Murray State Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +7.5

The Detroit Pistons are the single most underrated team in the NBA right now.  They have gone 12-1 ATS or 13-0 ATS in their last 13 games overall depending on what line you got on them in their 4-point loss to the Clippers as 3.5-point closing underdogs.  We cashed in on them +4.5.

I'm going to continue backing this team that has made me so much money over the past month.  They are now catching 7.5 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers and have been underdogs in 21 consecutive games now, so oddsmakers continue to miss-price them.  They have pulled outright upsets in seven of their last 13 games during this streak.

The Pistons even won 134-120 in Orlando last time out without their two best players in Jerami Grant and Cade Cunningham, flexing their depth.  But now Grant and Cunningham are both expected back tonight.  They'll take on a tired Cleveland team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-116 (OT) comeback win over Denver last night.  

They will also be playing 6th game in 9 days.  Four of their five starters played at least 37 minutes last night, and they are short-handed as it is playing without Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen, Rajon Rondo and Dean Wade.  It's a tall task to ask the Cavaliers to win by 8-plus points to beat us given the spot.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -11.5

The Kansas Jayhawks are playing up to their potential now.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won the Big 12 Tournament and then blasted Texas Southern 83-56 in the opening round.  Now they'll make easy work of the Creighton Bluejays.

Give Creighton credit for going 10-3 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  They even lost starting PG Ryan Nembhard a few games ago and played well without him.  They overcame a 9-point deficit in the final two minutes to beat San Diego State in overtime in the opening round.

Unfortunately for the Bluejays, that OT win came at another cost.  They lost their best big man in Ryan Kalkbrenner (12.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.7 BPG) in the closing minutes of that SDSU game to a season-ending injury.  He led the team with 16.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 2.3 BPG on 72.7% shooting in four postseason games and it's a huge blow.  Kansas is going to get whatever it wants in the pain against the Bluejays without Kalbrenner as a rim protector, and they are going to be much easier to defend without him as well.

Plays on neutral court teams (Kansas) - an explosive offensive team averaging 76 PPG or more against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime are 47-19 (71.2%) ATS since 1997.  The Jayhawks are going to run the short-handed Bluejays out of the building today.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* UNC/Baylor CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +6

The North Carolina Tar Heels have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming to ACC champion Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament.  That includes a 94-81 upset win at Duke as 11-point underdogs and a 95-63 blowout win over Marquette in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Baylor is nowhere near as good as they were last year when they won the NCAA Tournament.  I'm expecting an early exit from them, and it may just come here against the Tar Heels.  They are still without LJ Cryer (13.5 PPG) and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (8.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and these losses are going to prove too tough to overcome.

The Bears have been overvalued for over a month going just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They barely beat Iowa State at home in their regular season finale and then went on to get upset by Oklahoma in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament.  They did crush a bad Norfolk State team in the opening round, but that has them overvalued here.

The Tar Heels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  North Carolina is 7-1 ATS after two straight games making 78% of its free throws or better this season.  Roll with North Carolina Saturday.

20* Colgate/Wisconsin CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Wisconsin -7.5

I cashed in Providence yesterday over South Dakota State as the Jackrabbits were the single most popular upset pick in the tournament.  Providence was grossly underrated all season and continued to be as only 2-point favorites over SDSU in the opening round.  Well, like most think Providence is a lucky team, most also think Wisconsin is a lucky team.

The Badgers won the Big Ten regular season title thanks to winning almost all of their close games.  That's the same route Providence took by winning almost all their close games.  I think it has the Badgers undervalued as only 7.5-point favorites over Colgate in the Round of 64.  Colgate is a very popular upset pick here.

This will essentially be a home game for the Badgers being played in Milwaukee, WI which I think is getting overlooked.  I was not impressed with Colgate in the non-conference as they had losses to NC Statel, Harvard, Northeastern, Pittsburgh and Lehigh by single-digits and St. John's, Monmouth, Vermont, Niagara and Cornell by double-digits.  

They did most of their damage against the weak Patriot League.  They played the 339th-ranked schedule in the country while Wisconsin played the 19th.  Colgate ranks just 203rd in the country in adjusted defense and it's hard to trust a single-digit underdog that defends that poorly to keep it close against a top-notch program like Wisconsin.

Colgate is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 non-conference road games.  Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  The Badgers are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 NCAA Tournament games.  Take Wisconsin Friday.