Sports Picks & Predictions

15* Northwestern/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +6.5

The Northwestern Wildcats have a great chance to upset the Indiana Hoosiers today. They are 11-3 overall including 6-1 in their last seven games overall with upset wins over both Michigan State by 7 on the road and Illinois by 13 at home.

Indiana is 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. A big reason for the Hoosiers' struggles is playing without Xavier Johnson (11.6 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.4 RPG) during this stretch. Now they are without Race Thompson (8.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG) as well.

Northwestern is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Indiana. Bet Northwestern Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Utah Jazz +1.5

The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an upset win at Philadelphia last night. All five starters played at least 32 minutes for the Bulls, including 38 from LaVine, 37 from DeRozan and 36 from Vucevic. 

Not only will it be the 2nd of a back-top-back for the Bulls, but it will also be their 6th game in 9 days. They won't have much left in the tank for the Utah Jazz tonight, and this is now a letdown spot for them after upsetting both the 76ers and Nets in their last two games.

They Jazz are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days. They are coming off a 17-point blowout win at Houston. They should not be underdogs in this game given the favorable situation for them tonight.

Utah is 16-6 ATS as underdogs this season. Chicago is 2-10 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Jazz are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win by more than 10 points. Take the Jazz Saturday.

15* Heat/Suns ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Miami -1

The Miami Heat have gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have gone 7-4 SU in their last 11 games overall.  I like the fact that they are coming off an upset loss to the Lakers because they will come back motivated tonight and not take the Suns lightly.

The Suns are going through their worst stretch of the season due to injuries.  They are playing without Devin Booker (27.1 PPG, 5.6 APG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (12.1 PPG, 5.3 APG).  Chris Paul is too old to carry this team any longer, and they just aren't very good without those three.  They have been held to 83 and 88 points in their last two games.

The Suns are now 1-7 SU in their last eight games overall with losses by 25, 25 and 19 points during this stretch.  They are coming off a six-game road trip, and I love fading teams in their first game back home following a long trip.  They have a lot of distractions to deal with back at home and not much time to do it with only one day off in between games.  They haven't been home since December 23rd before Christmas.

The Suns are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.  The Heat are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 trips to Phoenix.  Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games following four or more consecutive road games.  Phoenix is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 90 points or fewer.  Take the Heat Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +3.5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but not all back-to-backs are created equal.  They were down by nearly 40 points in the 1st half against the Nuggets last night and as a result didn't play their starters in the 2nd half.  Plus, they had two days off prior to the Denver game.

All five starters played 18 minutes or fewer, meaning they should still be fresh for Minnesota and should still have all hands on deck.  It also means the Clippers will be playing with a big chip on their shoulder after getting embarrassed on National TV last night.  I fully expect them to come back tonight and win this game outright, but we'll take the 3.5 points for some insurance.

They take on a Minnesota Timberwolves team that is not playing well right now, going just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Timberwolves have some injuries that are piling up and still don't have Karl-Anthony Towns back yet.

The Clippers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Clippers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 trips to Minnesota.  Roll with the Clippers Friday.

20* Celtics/Mavericks TNT No-Brainer on Boston -2

I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They are coming off two consecutive road losses to Denver and Oklahoma City.  That includes their worst loss of the season at OKC by a final of 117-150 despite being 11.5-point favorites.  Now we get them at a great value as only 2-point favorites at Dallas, and they are rested and ready to go playing only their 3rd game in 7 days.

While it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Celtics off that blowout loss, it's time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks who have won seven consecutive games against a soft schedule.  Three of those wins came against Houston, while the other four came against Minnesota, LA Lakers, New York and San Antonio.  Their winning streak comes to an end tonight against the best team they have faced in a long time.

Plays on road favorites (Boston) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Mavericks are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win.  Dallas is 10-22-2 ATS in its last 34 games overall.  The Mavericks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game.  Boston is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 trips to Dallas.  Take the Celtics Thursday.

15* Purdue/Ohio State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -1

The Purdue Boilermakers just had their perfect 13-0 record go away with a 64-65 home loss to Rutgers last time out.  I always like fading teams the game after having a long winning streak come to an end because there tends to be a hangover effect.  And this is a brutal spot for the Boilermakers tonight.

They now have to travel to face an Ohio State team that is 10-3 this season and playing well, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 34, 31 and 16 points.  The Buckeyes are a perfect 7-0 SU at home this season and outscoring opponents by 27.0 points per game.  They basically just have to win this game to cover tonight.

The Boilermakers have been one of the most overrated teams in the country dating back to last season, going 6-18-3 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Purdue is 2-12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.  The Boilermakers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 65 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Roll with Ohio State Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +6.5

What more does Pittsburgh have to do to start getting some respect from bettors and the books alike?  The Panthers have gone 9-1 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming by a single point at Vanderbilt, 74-75 as 3.5-point dogs.

The Panthers have pulled off upsets of UNC as 6.5-point home dogs, Syracuse as 3.5-point road dogs, NC State as 10-point road dogs and Northwestern as 7.5-point road dogs during this stretch.  So it's not like they are beating up on inferior teams.

Now the Panthers are 6.5-point home dogs to a Virginia team that has only played three true road games this season.  They won by 2 at Michigan and lost by 2 at Miami while winning and covering against a bad Georgia Tech team.

The last three meetings between Virginia and Pittsburgh were decided by 1, 5 and 7 points with two of those being at Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers consistently.  Virginia is 14-29-2 ATS in its last 45 games following an ATS win.  Take Pittsburgh Tuesday.

20* Heat/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers following two consecutive road losses to the Celtics and Pacers by a combined 7 points.  Now they are back home tonight and highly motivated for a victory.  Look for them to handle their business against the Miami Heat as they are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games with all four wins coming by 9 points or more.

The spot is terrible for the Miami Heat.  They will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and just played in altitude twice in Denver and Utah.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Clippers tonight.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  The Clippers are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Heat are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a win.  Los Angeles is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games overall and as healthy as they have been all season, showing why they were the preseason title favorites.  I like backing a motivated Clippers team as a short home favorite tonight.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

The Portland Trail Blazers have no business being 9.5-point favorites against anyone right now.  They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with two losses to OKC and a loss to a short-handed Warriors team.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.

The Pistons are playing well right now upsetting the Magic by 20 as home underdogs and upsetting the Timberwolves by 12 as road underdogs in two of their last three games.  They also played the Bulls to the wire in between, but the Bulls had a huge run late to pull away.  They took the Clippers to OT the game prior, too.

Portland is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games when playing 3 or less games in 10 days.  The Blazers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  The Pistons are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Take the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Rockets +7.5

The Houston Rockets will be playing with double-revenge tonight.  They lost by 6 to the Mavericks on December 23rd at home and by 15 to the Mavericks on December 29th on the road.  So they will be facing the Mavericks for a 3rd time in 11 days here, and it's clear they will want this win a lot more than the Mavericks will.

While it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Rockets after losing eight of their last nine games, it's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks after winning six consecutive games.  Five of those six wins came by single-digits, so they have simply been fortunate in close games, including a 1-point win over the Spurs last time out as 7.5-point favorites.

Dallas is 4-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Mavericks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Dallas is 10-21-2 ATS in its last 33 games overall.  Roll with the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5

This is a terrible spot for the Denver Nuggets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They just upset the Boston Celtics at home last night, making this the perfect letdown spot for them.  Don't be surprised to see them rest some starters given the terrible rest spot.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Timberwolves, who have lost six consecutive games coming in.  They will be rested and motivated after having yesterday off.  The Timberwolves have owned the Nuggets, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with wins by 17, 15 and 6 points.

Denver is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games following two or more consecutive wins.  It is losing by 7.3 points per game on average in this spot.  Take the Timberwolves Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +12.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets.  They have won 11 consecutive games and are now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  They won't be excited at all to face the San Antonio Spurs tonight, and it's exactly the type of team that could end their streak.

The Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season and it's starting to show in their play.  They have quietly gone 6-6 SU & 7-5 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  All six wins came outright as underdogs and they also only lost by 1 to Dallas last time out.

Brooklyn is 12-36 ATS in its last 48 games as a home favorite.  The Nets are 4-19 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  San Antonio is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1.5

The Boston Celtics are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins by 12 over the Timberwolves, by 21 over the Bucks, by 26 over the Rockets and by 6 over the Clippers.  They are as healthy as they have been all season with Robert Williams back in the lineup, and they are now not only the best offensive team in the NBA, but also one of the best defensive teams with Williams.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Denver Nuggets, who have won six of their last seven games against a soft schedule.  They have also been very fortunate in close games during this run with four wins by 7 points or fewer.  Their luck runs out tonight against a better, more complete Celtics team that is rested after having the last two days off.

The Celtics simply own the Nuggets, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They have won six consecutive meetings straight up by 19, 20, 6, 18, 13 and 13 points.  Boston is 24-11-2 ATS in its last 37 road games.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +4

Cincinnati has benefitted from playing a home-heavy, easy schedule this season.  The Bearcats have played the 281st-ranked schedule and have only played one true road game this season.  They lost outright by 13 at Northern Kentucky as 6.5-point favorites.  

I think they lose outright here too as this is a great time to 'sell high' on the Bearcats after going 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Seven of those games were at home with a neutral game against lowly Louisville mixed in.

Temple has played the 123rd-ranked schedule, which is nearly 150 spots harder than that of Cincinnati.  It's a Temple team that has beaten the likes of Villanova, Rutgers and VCU this season with five of their seven losses coming by single-digits.

Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  Temple is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Cincinnati with two outright upsets and a 2-point loss as a 6.5-point dog.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Temple Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies -6

The Memphis Grizzlies have been dynamite at home this season.  They are 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game.  They are fully healthy right now and rested and ready to go after having yesterday off.

The same cannot be said for the Pelicans, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days after a home win over the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  They will be without Brandon Ingram and Larry Nance Jr. again tonight, and don't be surprised if they rest others after Williamson played 31 minutes and McCollum 35 minutes last night.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last five meetings with all four wins by double-digits.  Memphis is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with New Orleans with wins by 21, 27, 21 and 12 points.

The Pelicans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.  The Grizzlies are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 home games.  Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after losing four or five of its last six games.  The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after failing to cover four or five of their last six games.  The Pelicans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after covering four of their last five ATS coming in.  Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5

This is a terrible spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing a big 4th quarter finish to pull away to beat the lowly Detroit Pistons last night.  They will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  Four starters played at least 31 minutes last night including over 38 for LaVine and nearly 35 for DeRozan.

The Cavaliers come in rested and ready to go after having yesterday off, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Cleveland will also be highly motivated for a victory after losing three consecutive games coming in.  They had won five straight prior to this stretch.

Plays on road favorites (Cleveland) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cavaliers Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 6-5 SU in their last 11 games overall despite being underdogs in all 11 games.  That means they have six outright upset wins as underdogs.  They have gotten healthy which is a big reason for their improved play.

While the Spurs are getting zero respect for their recent solid play, the Mavericks are getting massive respect for their 5-0 SU run.  Now they are 7.5-point road favorites here against the Spurs when this line should be much closer to PK.  The Mavericks cannot be trusted as this big of a favorite.  They have played 36 games this season and have just six wins by double-digits, so they aren't blowing teams out.

Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a divisional home win.  The Mavericks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games.  Dallas is 4-12 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Mavericks are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games.  Dallas is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Spurs Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Santa Clara +6

Santa Clara is too good to be catching 6 points at home to St. Mary's today.  Santa Clara is 13-3 this season with the three losses coming to Utah State, UCF and San Jose State with two of those on the road.  The Broncos are 10-1 at home this season and have won five consecutive games coming in with the last three all by 9 points or more.  That includes wins over quality opponents in San Francisco by 12 and Boise State by 15 in their last two games.

St. Mary's is 11-4 this season with losses to Washington, New Mexico, Houston and Colorado State.  Amazingly, the Gaels have yet to play a true road game, so this will be their first true road game of 2022.  They almost made it to 2023 without having to play a true road game, which is just nuts.  I always like fading teams in their first true road game.

The head-to-head history also shows Santa Clara is catching too many points tonight.  The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Gaels.  Amazingly, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less, including five by 6 points or fewer.  The Broncos are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games following three or more consecutive home wins.  Roll with Santa Clara Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Seattle -4

The Seattle Redhawks are loaded this season and off to a 9-4 start including 5-0 at home.  The four losses were all to very good teams in Iona, Utah State, Washington and Oregon State.  They have handled all other teams, and they will handle Cal Baptist tonight.

Cal Baptist is 8-6 SU & 5-7-1 ATS this season.  The Lancers have some really bad losses along the way especially on the road.  They lost by 11 at Cal Poly as 4.5-point favorites.  They lost by 2 at home to Portland State as a 7-point favorite and by 15 at home to Long Beach State as a 4-point favorite.  Last time out they lost by 14 at Grand Canyon as a 6-point dog.  Portland State is a common opponent, and Seattle beat them by 12 at home.

Seattle has won three straight meetings with Cal Baptist.  Seattle is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Redhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after allowing 25 points or fewer in the first half last game.  Take Seattle Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UNLV +4.5

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 11-2 SU & 7-5 ATS this season with their two losses by 2 and 3 points, so they haven't lost by this margin all season.  They will relish this opportunity to try and take down San Diego State and pull off the upset as home underdogs.

San Diego State is 10-3 SU but 3-9 ATS, classifying as one of the most overrated teams in the country.  And they have only played one true road game this season with a win at lowly Stanford, while going 1-3 on neutrals.  They've done almost all their damage at home.

UNLV is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games when playing just their 2nd game in a week.  The Aztecs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The home team is 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Mexico -2

New Mexico is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Lobos are 13-0 SU & 8-3-1 ATS this season with upset road wins over both SMU and St. Mary's, as well as wins over San Francisco, Iona and Colorado State.  They want to go into 2023 with an unbeaten record and will be motivated to do just that, so there will be no letdown here.

Wyoming is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cowboys are 5-8 SU & 3-8-1 ATS this season.  They really miss one of the best big men in the country in Ike, who average 19.9 PPG and 9.6 RPG last season and has yet to make his debut.  G Kenny Foster (5.9 PPG) is questionable for the Cowboys today as well.

Wyoming has lost three straight to Dayton by 17, St. Mary's by 12 and Fresno State by 5 coming in.  That gives these teams a common opponent in St. Mary's, who the Lobos upset in a true road game while the Cowboys lost by 12 to them on a neutral.

New Mexico is 7-0 ATS vs. good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Cowboys are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Wyoming is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  Take New Mexico Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on College of Charleston -2.5

Charleston is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 13-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to North Carolina.  They have beaten the likes of Richmond, Davidson, Colorado State, VA Tech and Kent State so it's not like they have played a soft schedule, either.

They have played the 193rd-ranked schedule which is tougher than Towson's 236th-ranked schedule.  Towson is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall with bad losses to Navy at home as a 7.5-point favorite, Northern Iowa by 17 as a 5.5-point favorite on a neutral and by 10 at Bryant as a 1-point dog.

Charleston is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  Charleston is 43-15 ATS in its last 58 December road games.  The Cougars are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall, including 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a loss, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  The Cougars need to be bigger favorites here.  Roll with Charleston Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -3

The Sacramento Kings are 10-7 SU & 10-7 ATS at home this season and I like the value we are getting on them as short home favorites against the Utah Jazz.  They are fully healthy right now and have been a dangerous team when that's the case.

The Jazz haven't been very good on the road going just 1-8 SU in their last nine road games.  They are coming off a pair of bad road losses to the Spurs and Warriors despite being favored in both games.  I give them little chance of being competitive in this road game tonight.

Utah is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Jazz are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Sacramento is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on one days' rest.  Take the Kings Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -1.5

Clemson is 10-3 this season with two losses coming by a combined 5 points.  The Tigers have a tremendous home-court advantage as they are 7-0 at home this season and scoring 81.0 points per game at home.  They'll be excited to be playing their first home game since December 7th whlile coming off two of their most complete games of the season, beating Richmond by 28 on a neutral as 2-point favorites and topping Georgia Tech by 13 on the road as 1.5-point favorites.

NC State has only played one true road game all season.  The Wolf Pack lost that game 73-80 at Miami as 4.5-point dogs.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here as only 1.5-point road underdogs in their second true road game of the season.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  Clemson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following two consecutive games with 19 or more assists.  They are sharing the ball well right now which is a big reason they are coming off two of their most impressive performances of the season.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. up-tempo teams that average at least 62 shots per game.  Take Clemson Friday.

20* Colorado/Stanford Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -2

Stanford is just 5-7 this season and favored tonight over Colorado.  The reason is simple.  They have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and are better than their record, and we are actually getting them at a great value tonight due to that poor record.

Stanford has faced the 17th-toughest schedule in the country.  Their seven losses have come to Wisconsin, San Diego State, Ole Miss, Memphis, UCLA, ASU and Texas with all seven losses coming by 14 points or fewer.

Colorado is 8-5 against the 84th-ranked schedule and has played a home-heavy schedule.  The Buffaloes have only played two true road games this season.  They lost both, including a 74-83 upset loss at Grambling as 14.5-point favorites and a 63-73 loss at Washington as 1-point favorites.

The Buffaloes are 29-59-1 ATS in their last 89 road games.  Colorado is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and playing well heading into this one.  Take Stanford Thursday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Rockets +11.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Mavericks.  They are 4-0 in their last four games overall and needed a 60-point effort and a big comeback in the final minutes to beat the Knicks 126-121 (OT) at home last time out.

This is now a clear letdown spot for the Mavericks, who beat the Rockets 112-106 on the road during this four-game winning streak.  They won't be excited to play them again, while the Rockets will be out for revenge and will be the more motivated team.  Getting 11.5 points with the Rockets given the situation is too much tonight.

After all, Dallas has won by double-digits only five times in 35 games this season.  They aren't blowing teams out because they don't play great defense.  They will let Houston hang around in this one as they just have a way of playing to their level of competition.

Dallas is 0-9 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  The Mavericks are 1-8 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season.  Dallas is 8-17 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Mavericks are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Sacramento Kings +2.5

I had a tough beat on the Sacramento Kings +3.5 last night as they blew a 20-point lead and lost by 7 to the Denver Nuggets.  I will get my revenge tonight, and so will the Kings as they win this game outright in the rematch.  They will be the more motivated team after blowing that big lead, and the Nuggets won't show up at all after just beating the Kings last night.

The Kings are a young, deep team that can handle this 2nd of a back-to-back much better than the Nuggets can.  Jokic played 37 minutes and Murray 38 minutes for the Nuggets last night.  Four of five starters for the Kings played less than 33 minutes with the only exception being Kevin Huerter and his 37 minutes.  

This will only be the 2nd game in 5 days for the Kings while it will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Nuggets.  Denver used a lot of energy coming back from that 20-point deficit last night, too.  The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, proving they handle this spot very well.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks -4

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Milwaukee Bucks following their first three-game losing streak of the season.  It has come against a brutal schedule with road losses to Cleveland, Brooklyn and Boston, which are arguably the three best teams in the East outside of Milwaukee, so it's totally understandable.

But now the Bucks come in rested and ready to go playing on two days' rest, and they will obviously be highly motivated for a victory here.  The Bulls have gone just 9-15 SU in their last 24 games overall and are coming off a 15-point upset home loss to the lowly Houston Rockets.  They just cannot be trusted on a nightly basis.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Chicago) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread against an opponent that is coming off three or more consecutive ATS losses are 42-17 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - after being beating by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games are 32-9 (78%) ATS since 1996.

Home-court advantage has meant little in this series as the road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The road team is also 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Milwaukee is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 trips to Chicago.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Chicago is 18-37 ATS in its last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after upset losses to the Hornets and Wizards in two of their last three games.  The Kings come back highly motivated for a victory tonight and rested and ready to go coming in on three days' rest.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Denver Nuggets after going 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall including an OT win over a depleted Suns team on Christmad Day.  In fact, the Nuggets have won six of those seven games at home with their lone road victory coming by a single point at Portland.  They also lost by 18 at the Lakers in their other road game and are just 9-8 SU & 6-10-1 ATS on the road this season.

Denver is 0-7 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive wins this season, losing by an average of 10.3 points per game in this spot.  Sacramento is 11-3 ATS after playing a home game this season.  The Kings are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following three consecutive games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or higher.  The Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games playing on one days' rest.  The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings.  Bet the Kings Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -7.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS at home this season.  They are as healthy as they have been all season right now with Desmond Bane recently returning to the lineup, and they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.

The Phoenix Suns are far from healthy.  They will be without four of their top seven scorers tonight in Devin Booker (27.1 PPG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG), Cameron Payne (12.7 PPG) and Landry Shamet (9.4 PPG).  The loss of Shamet is big because he was coming on strong in the absence of Booker, scoring 25.7 PPG in his last three games with 19 made 3-pointers.

The Grizzlies just beat the short-handed Suns 125-100 on the road as 2.5-point favorites two games back.  They were then upset by the Warriors on Christmas Day, so they won't be feeling fat and happy here.  They will take the Suns seriously and put them away as they return home highly motivated to bounce back from that loss to Golden State.

Memphis is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after going under the total.  Memphis is 36-14-1 ATS in its last 51 home games.  Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -3

The Orlando Magic are flying under the radar right now.  They are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have won eight of their last nine games SU with their lone loss coming by a single point at Atlanta.  But they don't get the respect other teams get due to their 13-21 record overall.

Now they take on the struggling Los Angeles Lakers who are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and just not a very good team without Anthony Davis, who remains out.  The Lakers don't play any defense allowing 124 or more points in all four losses while allowing 118.0 points per game on the season.  Now they have to take on a Magic team that is clicking offensively scoring 111 or more points in eight of their last nine games overall.

The Lakers are 2-12 ATS as road underdogs this season.  The Magic are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 130 points or more.  Orlando is 10-1 ATS following a win this season.  Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  Orlando has a big rest advantage playing on three days' rest while the Lakers had to play in Dallas on Christmas Day and will be playing their 6th game in 10 days.  Take the Magic Tuesday.

20* Nets/Cavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Cleveland -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers had won five straight games prior to getting upset by the Raptors at home last time out.  Now I think it's a great 'buy low' spot on the Cavaliers off that rare upset home loss.  

After all, the Cavaliers are 16-3 SU & 14-5 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  I think that was a letdown and sandwich spot for the Cavaliers as they were coming off the 114-106 win over the Bucks and had the Nets on deck.  The Nets will now get their full attention off that upset loss to the Raptors.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nets, who are 8-0 SU in their last eight games overall against a very soft schedule.  They will meet their match tonight in the Cavaliers and this winning streak will come to an end.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to this streak.

Brooklyn is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Cleveland.  The Nets are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.  The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Cleveland is 5-0-2 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Take the Cavaliers Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -6

The Golden State Warriors are just atrocious without Stephen Curry (30.0 PPG, 6.8 APG, 6.6 RPG) and Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG), their top two scorers.  They lost their last two games without them by 36 at New York and by 30 at Brooklyn.  It will be more of the same today against the Memphis Grizzlies.

While the Warriors are banged up right now, the Grizzlies are back to full strength with Desmond Bane recently returning to the lineup.  We saw what they were capable of fully healthy as they blasted the Suns by 25 on the road last time out to improve to 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with all eight wins coming by 8 points or more.  

They are phenomenal defensively, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 105 points or fewer.  The Warriors have allowed 118 or more points in five of their last six including 143 to Brooklyn and 132 to New York in their last two games.  They give up 117.9 points per game on the season.

Memphis will have no problem kicking Golden State while they are down after getting eliminated by them in the playoffs last season.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - after leading their previous game by 15 points or more at halftime against an opponent after a game with a combined score of 255 points or more are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks are just 8-19-2 ATS in their last 29 games overall and have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  In their 33 games this season, they have just 7 wins by more than 7 points.  Getting 7.5 points with the Los Angeles Lakers is tremendous value on Christmas Day.

The Lakers are without Anthony Davis but they are healthy everywhere else.  They come in highly motivated for a victory after losing three consecutive games, so it's a good time to 'buy low' on them.  The Mavericks are without two key pieces in Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith.

I also think it's a bad spot for the Mavericks, who will be returning home following a four-game road trip and there will be a ton of distractions to deal with at home especially with it being Christmas.  It will also be the 10th game in 17 days for the Mavericks, so they will be playing on tired legs.

Dallas is 0-8 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Dallas is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Lakers Sunday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -8.5

The Washington Wizards are 1-11 SU & 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Now they are in the toughest spot any NBA team has been in all season tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing in the altitude in Utah last night.  They will also be playing their 5th road game in 7 days tonight.

The Wizards will have nothing left in the tank for the Kings, who will test their tired legs by playing at the 5th-fasted pace in the NBA this season.  It will also be just the 3rd game in 7 days for Sacramento, so they are fresh and ready to go.  The Kings are 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall and one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  Six of those seven wins have come by 9 points or more, which would cover this 8.5-point spread.

The Wizards are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  Washington is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight Friday games.  Sacramento is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on one day of rest.  The Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Sacramento is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Washington.  Roll with the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing to the Thunder and Nuggets to open this road trip, which followed up a 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS run.  Look for them to get back to how they were playing before dropping those two games tonight.

Of course, it helps that the Suns are missing three of their top five scores.  The Suns are without Devin Booker (28.0 PPG, 5.8 APG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (12.7 PPG) tonight.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without these three.

The Suns are really struggling amidst all these injuries as they are going through their worst stretch of the season right now.  They are just 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall and coming off an upset home loss to the Washington Wizards as 7-point favorites.  That's a Wizards team that is 1-11 in their last 12 games overall with their lone victory against Phoenix.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Phoenix) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent that is off a road loss are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Memphis is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Grizzlies are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Phoenix.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Clippers +3.5

The Los Angeles Clippers were the preseason favorites to win the NBA title and for good reason with their star power and depth.  Well, they were injured for most of the season, but now we are seeing what they are capable of when healthy, especially when having Kawhi Leonard on the court.

The Clippers have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have won five of their last six.  The only game they lost was in a 2nd of a back-to-back situation when they sat Leonard.  Now the Clippers will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days and have all hands on deck tonight.  They should not be underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers.

It's time to 'sell high' on the 76ers, who are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall against a very soft schedule.  The only decent teams they played were the Kings and Raptors, and they needed OT to beat the Raptors and OT to beat the Lakers.  The other wins came against the Hornets, Warriors without their stars and Pistons.  This is a huge step up in class for the 76ers tonight.

The Clippers are 9-1 ATS following a non-conference game this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with the Clippers Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +8.5

Southern Miss is one of the most underrated teams in the country.   The Golden Eagles are 11-1 SU this season with their lone loss by 2 points.  They are also 8-1 ATS in their lined games.

Amazingly, Southern Miss has done its best work in true road games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in true road games with an upset win at Vanderbilt by 12 as 16-point dogs, an upset win at Liberty by 4 as 11.5-point dogs and a blowout win at Lamar by 26 as 13.5-point favorites.

This is a terrible spot for UNLV.  They just had their 10-game winning streak to start the season snapped with a 73-75 home loss to San Francisco as 6-point favorites.  I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because they tend to be flat their next game out since they aren't trying to keep a streak alive.  It's the kind of loss that could easily beat the Rebels twice, let alone having to win by 9 points or more to beat us tonight.

The Golden Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  The Rebels won't have much of a home-court advantage at all tonight with a game this close to Christmas, and their home court is being factored into this line too much, especially considering how good the Golden Eagles have been on the road.  Take Southern Miss Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Yale -13.5

The Yale Bulldogs are one of the best mid-majors in the country.  They are 9-3 this season with their three losses all coming on the road to the three best teams they have played in Colorado by 3 as 9-point dogs, Butler by 10 as 6.5-point dogs and Kentucky by 10 as 16-point dogs.  The Bulldogs have won the majority of their games in blowouts with seven of their nine wins coming by 13 points or more.

Now they face one of the worst teams in the country in Monmouth.  The Hawks are 1-11 SU & 4-8 ATS this season and getting outscored by 21.9 points per game.  Nine of their 11 losses have come by 15 points or more, so it's not asking much of Yale to cover this 13.5-point spread.  They are coming off a 34-point home loss to Charlotte.

The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Yale Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers -4

The Portland Trail Blazers will be out for revenge from a 121-123 loss at Oklahoma City on Monday.  Now they get to face the Thunder here two days later and don't have to wait long to get their revenge.  I expect them to blow the Thunder out of the building tonight.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in the first half of the season are 55-22 (71.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that is coming off a home win scoring 110 or more points are 58-22 (72.5%) ATS since 1996.

Plays home road favorites (Portland) - revenging a loss where opponents scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 60-27 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  I always look to back teams that lost the first meeting in these quick rematch situations because they are the more motivated team.  Plus, they haven't adjusted the spread as Portland is once again a 4-point favorite just as it was on Monday.  Take the Blazers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia Tech +1.5

Wrong team favored here.  Georgia Tech has a big home-court advantage this season going 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 20.5 points per game.  Clemson is 0-1 in true road games this season with a loss at terrible South Carolina.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series with the home team going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Georgia Tech has owned Clemson recently going 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  

The Tigers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Yellow Jackets are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after committing 11 or fewer turnovers in three consecutive games.  Josh Pastner is 19-8 ATS in home games with a line of +3 to -3 as the coach of the Yellow Jackets.  Take Georgia Tech Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kent State -3.5

Kent State is the most underrated team in the country.  The Golden Flashes are 8-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their lined games this season.  Their three losses came at Gonzaga by 7 as 16-point dogs, at Houston by 5 as 19-point dogs and at College of Charleston by 2 as 2.5-point dogs.  Those losses alone show how good this team is without even going through their wins.

Now they take on a New Mexico State team that should be no match for them.  The Aggies are 6-4 this season with losses to St. Mary's by 13, to UC Irvine by 17, to UTEP by 3 and to Santa Clara by 1.  The six wins came against inferior competition.  This will be their toughest test of the season with the exception of that road loss at St. Mary's.

The Golden Flashes are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  The Aggies are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Bet Kent State Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Illinois +33

Iowa moved this game up to a 3:30 EST start time due to snow in the forecast today.  That will take away their usual home-court advantage at night.  I think they just want to get in and get out with a win today and won't be concerned about getting margin.

That's going to make it really difficult for the Hawkeyes to cover this 33-point spread.  Not to mention, the Hawkeyes remain without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG), who is out until at least January.

Eastern Illinois is just 3-9 SU but 5-4-1 ATS and has not lost a single game by this kind of margin yet.  Their largest loss came by 30 at Illinois in the season opener, and if they can stay within 30 of Illinois, they can stay within 33 of Iowa without Murray.  They also only lost by 22 at Ohio State, another Big Ten opponent that is better than Iowa.  

They covered the spread in both of those games and will improve to 3-0 ATS against Big Ten teams with this inflated number.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Take Eastern Illinois Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Wizards tonight.  They have lost 10 consecutive games but were competitive in all 10 as none of them came by more than 13 points, and six game by single-digits.  And they didn't have their best player in Bradley Beal for the majority of them.  Well, Beal is back healthy now and the Wizards are as healthy as they have been all season.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Phoenix Suns, who are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But this is a terrible spot for the Suns as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 17 days.

The Suns are getting way too much respect tonight for blowing out the Lakers last night, who were without both James and Davis and a few others.  Well, the Suns cannot be this big of a favorite given all their injury concerns right now.  The Suns are without Cam Johnson, and Devin Booker (groin) and Cameron Payne (foot) are both questionable.

Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 game vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and has a way of playing to its level of competition.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Washington) - following three or more consecutive road losses in December games are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Wizards Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +2.5

The Utah Jazz are 0-6 SU in their last six road games yet they are favored on the road here against the Detroit Pistons.  They just lost by 26 at Milwaukee and by 23 at Cleveland and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  This is a terrible spot for the Jazz to say the least.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who have lost five of their last six games coming in but were competitive in all six.  They haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 11 points and have played a brutal schedule too against Memphis (twice), Dallas, Miami, New Orleans, LA Lakers, Sacramento, Brooklyn and Charlotte.  This is actually a step down in class for them from what they have been facing.

Utah is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after trailing its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime.  The Jazz are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Detroit is 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games following a home loss.  Utah is 14-36-3 ATS in its last 53 games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 9-2-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pistons won 125-116 in Utah earlier this season to improve to 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without four of their best players tonight in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.2 PPG, 5.8 APG), Josh Giddey (14.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 5.5 APG), Robinson-Earl (8.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Bazley (5.9 PPG) tonight.  They stand no chance of being competitive with the Portland Trail Blazers as a result.

The Blazers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Damian Lillard is back healthy and they are humming on offense scoring 116 or more points in six of those eight games.

The Thunder did pull off the upset as 11-point home dogs to the Grizzlies last time out as the Grizzlies took them lightly, and JA Morant was ejected in the first half.  That result is keeping this spread lower than it should be.  A lot of times teams can have one good performance in their first game without their stars, but then it progressively gets worse.  I don't expect the Blazers to take them lightly after seeing that Memphis result.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime are 52.20 (72.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games when their opponent scored 100 or more points in their previous game.  Portland is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road games.  The Blazers are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 15 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Take the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +8.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets.  They have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall but eight of their last nine wins have come by single-digits.  They have simply been fortunate in close games, and I think this one goes down to the wire against the Detroit Pistons, too.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  They have lost four of their last five games against a very tough schedule with road losses to the Pelicans by 6 and the Grizzlies by 11 as well as home losses to the Lakers by 7 and Kings by 9.  They also went on the road and upset the Hornets.  They are now catching too many points at home today to the Nets.

Brooklyn is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.  The Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +10.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with five upset victories outright.  They only lost by 7 to the Bucks as 10-point dogs, beat the Clippers outright as 6.5-point dogs, beat the Raptors by 4 and 12 outright as 8 and 7-point dogs, beat the Hawks by 11 outright as 3-point dogs and beat the Celtics outright as 13.5-point dogs.

Yes, the Celtics will now be out for revenge today, but they shouldn't be 10.5-point favorites over the Magic.  They can get their revenge and still not cover this inflated number.  Plus, Jayson Tatum scored 31 points in that first meeting on Friday and they still lost by 8.  Well, now the Celtics won't have Tatum today as he'll be out for personal reasons.  There's no way the Celtics should be double-digit favorites over the Magic without Tatum and with how well the Magic are playing right now.

The Celtics are overvalued due to having the best record in the NBA and it has shown of late as they are 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 16 at Golden State, by 20 at the Clippers and by 8 at home to the Magic.  Their lone win was a miracle as they erased a 13-point deficit in the final four minutes to beat the Lakers by 4 in OT.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

20* Tennessee/Arizona ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -3.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 9-1 this season with wins over Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Indiana all on neutrals.  Their lone loss came on the road.  The Wildcats are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 27.4 points per game.

Now they host a Tennessee team that is also 9-1 but hasn't played a true road game yet.  I always like fading teams when they play their first true road game.  It will be a tremendous atmosphere and home-court advantage tonight for the Wildcats with a rowdy crowd with this 10:30 EST tip.  It will easily be the toughest atmosphere the Vols will have played in this season.

Plays on home teams (Arizona) - after covering as a double-digit favorite, in a game involving two teams that win more than 80% of their games on the season are 48-24 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  G James (8.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and F Aidoo (4.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG) are both questionable to play for the Vols tonight as well.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +24

This is a terrible spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They have played their last three games against Duke, Iowa State and Wisconsin.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat SE Missouri State as they were those three teams, and they will need to be motivated to cover this big of a number Saturday.

Making matters worse for the Hawkeyes is that they will be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) and could be without Ahron Ulis (6.4 PPG), who is questionable.  They just want to get in and get out with a win here Saturday and won't be concerned with getting margin.

We've seen SE Missouri State hang tough against some very good teams this season.  They only lost by 7 at Missouri as 21.5-point dogs a few games back.  They upset South Florida outright as 11-point road dogs, upset Evansville outright as 2-point road dogs and only lost by 13 at Bradley.  They have done their best work in true road games.

The Redhawks are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  The Redhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet SE Missouri State Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5

Nobody is playing better than the Memphis Grizzlies right now.  They are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 41-point win over Milwaukee, a 25-point win over Atlanta and a 21-point win over Oklahoma City, which is tonight's opponent.

The spot really favors the Grizzlies as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are fully healthy with the exception of Desmond Bane, who has been out for a few weeks now and they haven't really missed him due to all their depth.  This is a terrible spot for the Thunder playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days.

The Thunder come in on a four-game losing streak and are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.  Robinson-Earl (8.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) remains out, and Bazley (5.9 PPG) and Dort (13.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG) are both questionable.  The Thunder lost 110-112 to the short-handed Timberwolves last night who were playing without Towns, Russell and Gobert.  

That game went down to the wire so their starters played big minutes, meaning they will be even more fatigued than normal in this 2nd of a back-to-back.  Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when playing in zero rest.  Memphis is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season at Memphis on Thursday.  They were coming off a 128-111 home win over the Warriors and I think they simply had a letdown after beating the defending champs.

But now the Bucks are back home where they are 13-3 SU & 11-5 ATS this season outscoring opponents by 9.0 points per game.  And they are expected to get star PG Jrue Holiday (19.1 PPG, 7.4 APG, 5.3 RPG) back from illness after sitting out the last two games.

The Utah Jazz are just 1-6 SU in their last seven road games with five losses by 5 points or more.  They are getting too much respect after two consecutive home wins over the Pelicans.  But now they are back on the road here and should be much more than 5-point road underdogs to the Bucks.  

It's time to 'buy low' on Milwaukee off a blowout loss and 'sell high' on Utah after two consecutive upset home wins.  The Bucks will come back motivated and will have 100% focus for this one, which isn't good news for the Jazz.  Roll with the Bucks Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -3

Marshall won nine consecutive games before finally losing 67-75 at UNC-Greensboro last time out.  I think they'll be refocused with Toledo coming to town this weekend.  Marshall is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 17.7 points per game.

Toledo has some really bad losses this season and they cannot be trusted.  They lost by 7 at George Mason, by 11 to ECU and by 12 to Missouri-KC.  They also just beat Canisius by 1 as 17-point home favorites last time out.  Toledo ranks just 228th in adjusted defense while Marshall ranks 98th.

Marshall is 6-0 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Thundering Herd are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Roll with Marshall Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Cornell +9.5

Cornell has been very impressive this season at 7-2 with their two losses coming by 2 at Boston College as 9.5-point dogs and by 2 at Miami as 14.5-point dogs.  They are once again catching too many points today against another ACC team in Syracuse today.

Syracuse has upset losses to Bryant and Colgate at home already this season and also lost to St. John's by 7 and Illinois by 29.  These teams have a common opponent in Monmouth, too.  Cornell won by 18 points on the road at Monmouth, while Syracuse only beat Monmouth by 15 at home.

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games following a home win.  Cornell is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games a an underdog.  The Big Red are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orange are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Cornell Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Sam Houston State -3.5

Sam Houston State is 8-2 this season with its only losses coming to Nevada and Oklahoma State on the road.  They also beat Utah on the road by 10 and Oklahoma on the road, and those wins look really good right now especially after Utah handed Arizona their only loss this season.

Texas State is just 6-5 this season with some very ugly losses.  The most alarming was last time out when they lost 65-71 at home to Mary Hardin Baylor.  They also lost to Hawaii, Rice, UTSA and Washington State all by 5 points or more.

Sam Houston State has played the 31st-toughest schedule in the country while Texas State has played the 253rd-ranked schedule.  Texas State is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  Sam Houston ranks 34th in adjusted defense while Texas State ranks 203rd.  Take Sam Houston State Saturday.

20* Houston/Virginia ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars are legitimately one of the top teams in the country this season.  They are 10-1 with their only loss coming to Alabama after blowing a double-digit lead.  They rank 29th in adjusted offense and 2nd in adjusted defense.

Virginia is getting too much respect from the books right now after an 8-0 start.  But the Cavaliers have been squeaking by of late beating Michigan by 2 as 4.5-point favorites, Florida State by 5 as 18-point favorites and James Madison by 5 as 12.5-point favorites in their last three games coming in.

Virginia's luck runs out today against the best team they have faced yet in Houston.  I think the Cavaliers will be rusty because they haven't played since December 6th with 10 days off in between games.  Virginia will be without Reece Beekman (27 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) for the first time this season after he was injured against James Madison.

Houston crushed Virginia 67-47 at home last season.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following four or more consecutive wins.  Houston is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a SU home win where they failed to cover.  The Cougars are a ridiculous 42-12-1 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS loss.  The Cavaliers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Houston Saturday.

20* Indiana/Kansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kansas -5

The Kansas Jayhawks are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall two of the most impressive performances of any team this season.  They beat Seton Hall 91-65 as 10-point home favorites and beat Missouri 95-67 as only 3.5-point road favorites.

Now the Jayhawks are only 5-point home favorites over the Indiana Hoosiers in one of the best venues for college basketball at home.  Indiana lost by 14 to Arizona on a neutral and by 15 at Rutgers in two of their last three games, which doesn't bode well for them being able to hang with the Jayhawks today.

Kansas has played the 39th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 170th.  Kansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games after winning three of its last four games.  Plays against road teams (Indiana) - after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game against an opponent that is coming off three straight wins by 15 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* Warriors/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -6.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are at full strength in the health department right now with the exception of Tyrese Maxey.  They are playing their best basketball of the season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 11 over the Lakers, by 18 over the Hornets and by 20 over the Kings.

Now the 76ers come in on two days' rest and highly motivated to face the defending champion Warriors.  But the Warriors have just been going through the motions all season, and they are going to regret that with the injuries that are starting to pile up for them.

Indeed, the Warriors will be without their top two scorers in Steph Curry (30.0 PPG, 6.8 APG, 6.6 RPG) and Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG).  Both Klay Thompson (18.7 PPG) and Draymond Green (8.1 PPG, 6.7 APG, 6.0 RPG) are questionable to play tonight as well.  Either way, the Warriors stand no chance of being competitive without Curry and Wiggins.

The Warriors are 2-13 SU & 3-12 ATS on the road this season.  The 76ers are 10-5 SU & 11-4 ATS at home this season.  Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or better this season.  The 76ers are 8-0 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Take the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +13.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with four upset victories outright.  They only lost by 7 to the Bucks as 10-point dogs, beat the Clippers outright as 6.5-point dogs, beat the Raptors by 4 and 12 outright as 8 and 7-point dogs, and beat the Hawks by 11 outright as 3-point dogs.

This is a good spot for the Magic playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics returning home from a six-game road trip that concluded in Los Angeles.  I always like fading teams in their first game back home following a long road trip because there are so many distractions they have to deal with.  The Celtics haven't been home since December 2nd.

The Magic are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on two days' rest.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Boston) - after failing to cover two of their last three ATS, when playing on two days' rest are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall despite being a 6.5-point dog or higher in five games.  They pulled the upset as 11.5-point road dogs to Phoenix and upset the Suns again as 6.5-point home dogs.  They upset the 76ers as 8-point home dogs and upset the Bucks as 10-point home dogs.  So it's not like they are beating bad teams, they are beating the best teams in the NBA has to offer.

Now the Rockets are undervalued once again as home underdogs to the Miami Heat, who are in an absolutely terrible spot tonight.  The Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-108 win in Oklahoma City last night.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Heat, which is about as tough a spot as you will find in the NBA.  Don't be surprised if they rest several players tonight given the spot.

Miami is 2-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games playing on zero rest.  Miami is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.  Roll with the Rockets Thursday.

20* Timberwolves/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6

The Los Angeles Clippers were the preseason favorites to win the NBA title.  But injuries have held them back thus far.  Now we are seeing a glimpse of how good this team can be with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back from injury for a few games now.

The Clippers just blasted the Celtics 113-93 at home on Wednesday.  The Celtics have the best record in the NBA, so that was no small feat.  And now I expect them to blast the short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.

The Timberwolves are coming off two consecutive road losses at Portland by 6 and at Portland by 21 in the rematch.  They will now be playing their 4th road game in 6 days.  They are without Karl-Anthony Towns (20.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG) and Jalen McDaniels (10.8 PPG) and could be without De'Angelo Russell (16.6 PPG, 6.3 APG), who is questionable with a knee injury.

Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Minnesota.  The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Roll with the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +3

The Orlando Magic are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS against a brutal schedule with their lone loss coming by 7 as 10-point dogs to Milwaukee.  They upset the Clippers by 5 as 6.5-point dogs, upset the Raptors by 4 as 8-point dogs and upset the Raptors by 12 as 7-point dogs.

The Magic now come in on two days' rest and will upset the short-handed Atlanta Hawks tonight.  The Hawks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming by a single point over the Bulls in OT.  The Hawks are 5-9 SU & 5-9 ATS on the road this season.

The Hawks are without Dejounte Murray (20.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and John Collins (12.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG) and could be without Trae Young (27.1 PPG, 9.6 APG), who is questionable tonight with a nagging back injury.  They shouldn't be favored without Murray and Collins alone, but they definitely shouldn't be favored with Young hampered.

Plays on home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Orlando) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Ohio +13.5

The Ohio Bobcats are 5-4 this season with only a 1-point loss at Belmont as 6-point dogs and a 4-point loss in OT to Michigan as 14.5-point dogs.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall, which includes an impressive upset road win at Youngstown State as 4.5-point dogs last time out.

Florida already has four losses this season.  They lost outright as 12-point home favorites to FAU, lost by 7 to Xavier on a neutral, lost by 29 to WVU on a neutral and lost by 21 to UConn at home.  I don't think they have any business being 13.5-point favorites over Ohio given those results.

Keep in mind this isn't a true home game for Florida as it is being played on a neutral in Tampa, so they won't have their normal home-court advantage.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Ohio is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a road win.  The Bobcats are 41-15 ATSin their last 56 games following two consecutive games as road underdogs.  Florida is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ohio Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

Nobody is playing better than the New Orleans Pelicans right now, and Zion Williamson is showing his importance to this team.  They have kept winning despite being without Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum for stretches because of Williamson and their underrated role players.

The Pelicans are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the NBA in Memphis and Boston.  They have won seven consecutive games with four of those coming by double-digits and will be highly motivated to extend that winning streak to eight games tonight.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The Utah Jazz have hit the skids after a fast start to the season.  They are just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Injuries have played a role in their struggles and they remain without Collin Sexton (14.3 PPG) tonight.  Utah ranks just 26th in defensive efficiency while New Orleans ranks 3rd, and that will be the difference in this game tonight.

Utah is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games following a road loss.  Plays on road favorites (New Orleans) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against an opponent that's off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Memphis/Alabama ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Memphis +8

The Memphis Tigers always start slow and then get better as the season goes on.  That's likely due to many new faces every year with the elite talent Penny Hardaway recruits.  They started 2-2 this season but have since gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over Nebraska by 12, Ole Miss by 11 and their most impressive win being a 9-point victory over Auburn, handing the Tigers their first loss of the season.

I think this is a terrible spot for Alabama.  They are coming off a big comeback win at No. 1 ranked Houston, pulling off the upset as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now they return home and will be fat and happy following that victory.

Last year, Memphis beat Alabama 92-78 as 3.5-point home underdogs.  Now Memphis is catching 8 points on the road in the rematch this season.  This is simply too many points in a game that is likely going to come down to the final possession or two.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after playing a game as an underdog.  It is coming back to lose outright by 5.1 points per game in this spot.  Memphis is 41-19 ATS in its last 60 games following an upset win a an underdog.  The Tigers are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 12 points.  Memphis is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Crimson Tide are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Bet Memphis Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have a massive home-court advantage.  They are 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 8.5 points per game.  They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Warriors tonight, and you know it's going to be a sell out and an even bigger home-court advantage than normal for the Bucks tonight.

The Warriors have been dreadful on the road going 2-11 SU & 3-10 ATS while getting outscored by 8.0 points per game.  They are without second-leading scorer Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) and I don't give them much of a chance to even be competitive with the Bucks tonight without him.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Bucks won by 19 and 39 points in their last two home meetings with the Warriors.  Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Marshall -2

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with all nine victories coming by 9 points or more.  They are laying too short of a number against UNC-Greensboro tonight.

UNC-Greensboro is just 4-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season.  They are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging 65.4 points per game on 39.4% shooting.  I don't see how they can keep up with Marshall, which averages 82.1 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  

And it's not like the Thundering Herd are poor defensively.  They allow 38.9% shooting and are holding opponents to 6.6 points per game less than their season averages.  Greensboro holds opponents to 6.5 points per game less than their season averages and 41.5% shooting.  These teams are similar defensively, but there's a big discrepancy on offense.

Greensboro is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Spartans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Marshall Tuesday.

15* Celtics/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are as healthy as they have been all season with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup for a few games now.  The chemistry should get better with each passing game, and the Clippers should start playing like the team that was favored to win the NBA Finals coming into the season sooner rather than later.

Now they host a Boston Celtics team in a terrible spot.  The Celtics wanted revenge on the Warriors from losing to them in the NBA Finals and came up short Saturday, losing 107-123.  I think there will be a 'hangover' effect from that defeat.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

Plus, it's just time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA.  They were favored on the road against the Warriors, and now they're even bigger favorites on the road against the Clippers.  Plus, they will be without Al Horford tonight and were already without Robert Williams, so they are going to get killed on the boards with how small they have to go.

The Clippers are equipped better than anyone to guard Brown and Tatum with George, Leonard and Batum.  This is a great matchup for them as a result and I fully expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Roll with the Clippers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Oklahoma City Thunder off two consecutive road losses to Memphis and Cleveland.  They had won their previous three games with two of them coming on the road in upset fashion at Minnesota and at Atlanta.  Now they are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  In those 22 games, they only won three times by double-digits, so they aren't blowing teams out.  The Mavericks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight as well.

The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Mavericks not once losing by double-digits.  In fact, they pulled the outright upset as double-digit dogs in each of their last two meetings with Dallas.

The Thunder are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 road games.  Dallas is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Oklahoma City is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 road games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Dallas is 5-13 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but it's pretty much a non-factor because they blew out the Mavericks 144-115 at home so they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.  Plus, the Bulls will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, so they are still very fresh and ready to go.

The Atlanta Hawks are in a world of hurt right now in the injury department, so they should not be favored in this game.  The only reason they are favored is because the Bulls are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Hawks are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Hawks are without Dejounte Murray (20.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and John Collins (12.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG) tonight and could be without De'Andre Hunter (14.9 PPG), who is questionable.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.  

20* Wisconsin/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin +4.5

Iowa got away with being without their best player on Thursday in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) in a 75-56 win over Iowa State in a game that closed Iowa -3.  Iowa State shot 3-of-22 (14%) from 3-point range while Iowa shot 12-of-23 (52%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen against Wisconsin.

Iowa's luck runs out today against a Wisconsin team that is 7-2 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  The Badgers have wins over Maryland, Marquette, USC and Stanford.  Their two losses both came down to the wire in OT to Kansas by 1 and to Wake Forest by 3.  So they haven't lost by this margin yet this season.  And without Murray again, the Hawkeyes aren't going to get margin on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Badgers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Wisconsin Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -4.5

Youngstown State is 7-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road.  They are 3-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 32.7 points per game.  I think they are laying too short of a number here to Ohio.

Ohio is 0-4 SU in true road games this season and losing by 8.2 points per game.  And it's not like they've faced a murder's row on the road with the losses coming to Detroit, Belmont, Marshall and Michigan.

Ohio is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Youngstown State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Youngstown State Sunday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

The Boston Celtics are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games overall.  They have been making a statement this season that they are the best team in the NBA after losing in the NBA Finals last season.  And now they get their chance at revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they lost to in the Finals.

The Celtics have had this game circled all offseason and won't waste this opportunity to get their revenge.  They'll be up against a banged up Warriors team that is playing without Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) tonight.  That's a big loss because they needed him to guard either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.

Boston is a perfect 10-0 ATS after winning four of its last five games this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  Boston is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Celtics are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Boston simply wants this one more.  Take the Celtics Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -2

This is a terrible spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They are coming off a hard-fought 105-106 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night on National TV.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after that defeat, and they won't have much left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here.

This is a great spot for the Chicago Bulls.  They come in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They will run the Mavericks out of the building tonight at home.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and this is a great 'buy low' spot on them after failing to cover four consecutive games coming in.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  The Mavericks are 2-10 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Chicago is 24-11 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Dallas is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5

This is a terrible spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 95-106 home loss to the Sacramento Kings last night, who were without De'Aron Fox.  A big reason the Cavaliers struggled is because they are dealing with injuries of their own.

Indeed, Donovan Mitchell (29.0 PPG) missed that game and is questionable to return tonight.  They are also without Kevin Love (10.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG) right now, one of their top reserves off the bench.  Dean Wade (6.4 PPG) remains out as well.

The Thunder are fully healthy and playing well, going 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They come in on two days' rest and will clearly be the fresher team for this one.  So getting 6.5 points with them in this favorable spot is too much.

The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on two days' rest.  Oklahoma City is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 road games.  Cleveland is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on zero rest.  The Cavaliers are 15-39-4 ATS in their last 58 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

20* Arizona/Indiana FOX No-Brainer on Arizona PK

I think we are getting the Arizona Wildcats cheap at a PK today because they have failed to cover six of their last seven games overall.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on them as it's the first time all season they haven't been favored, and they have played a brutal schedule that has included Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Utah already.

Indiana has benefited from a much softer schedule with their best wins coming over Xavier and a banged-up UNC team.  They lost by 15 at Rutgers for their lone defeat, and they benefited from Nebraska being without one of their best players last game.  This is easily the toughest test of the season for Indiana.

This game is listed as a neutral, but no question the Wildcats will have the home-court advantage with more fans there with this game being played in Las Vegas.  Arizona has played the 85th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 269th-toughest.  Jalen Hood-Schifino (8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.1 APG) is questionable for the Hoosiers.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* Kansas/Missouri ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -3

I've been looking for spots to fade this Missouri Tigers team because they are overvalued due to their 9-0 record.  They have benefited from playing the 360th-ranked schedule in the country.  Now they take on a Kansas team that has played the 71st-toughest schedule in the country.

I faded Missouri with success last game as they struggled to even get by SE Missouri State 96-89 as a 21.5-point favorite.  And now I'll fade them again here against easily the toughest opponent they have faced to date in Kansas.  The previous toughest was Wichita State, and they needed OT to beat them.

Kansas has wins over Duke, NC State, Wisconsin and Seton Hall (by 26) already this season.  Their lone loss came against a very good Tennessee team.  Kansas beat Missouri 102-65 at home last season.  The favorite is now 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Memphis/Auburn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Auburn -1

Bruce Pearl is doing a tremendous job at Auburn.  The Tigers are off to another great start this season at 8-0 SU.  I know it hasn't come against the most difficult schedule, but that's why were are getting them cheap here at basically a PK against the Memphis Tigers.

I trust Pearl more than Penny Hardaway, who just hasn't been able to get the most out of the talent on hand unlike Pearly.  Memphis already has two losses this season to Saint Louis and Seton Hall, and Auburn beat Saint Louis.  Seton Hall has lost by 26 to Kansas, by 16 to Iowa, by 13 to Oklahoma and lost outright to Siena, so that loss looks really poor now.

Auburn is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following seven or more consecutive wins.  Memphis is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 December games.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Washington State/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -1.5

The UNLV Rebels are 9-0 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  This game against Washington State is listed as a neutral site venue, but it will basically be a home game for the Rebels being played at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.  Fans will come out in droves to watch this team try and keep their perfect record alive today.

Washington State is just 4-4 this season with its four wins coming against Texas State, Eastern Washington, Detroit and Northern Kentucky where they were substantial favorites in all four games.  They even lost outright as favorites to Utah, Boise State and Prairie Vie A&M.  They also lost by 14 at Oregon with three of their four losses coming by double-digits.  This team is way overvalued this season.

The Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Washington State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with UNLV Saturday.

15* SDSU/Saint Mary's ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -1

The San Diego State Aztecs have a tremendous fan base and will have the home-court advantage despite this being played on a neutral in Phoenix.  Fans are excited about this team, and for good reason as the Aztecs are 7-2 this season with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in Arizona and Arkansas.

The Aztecs also have wins over BYU, Stanford and Ohio State and have played the 21st-toughest schedule in the country.  St. Mary's is 7-3 this season against the 99th-ranked schedule.  They have upset losses to Washington and New Mexico already this season.  Their best wins are over Missouri State, Vanderbilt and North Texas.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (San Diego State) - off a SU home win but ATS loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 73-36 (67%) ATS since 1997.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take San Diego State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  I love the spot for them tonight because one of their non-covers came on December 4th just five days ago against the Memphis Grizzlies in a 10-point home loss as 6.5-point dogs.

Now the Pistons will be out for revenge from that defeat and are catching 10.5 points on the road in the rematch.  That's too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage, and too much considering the revenge factor as the Pistons will want this one more than the Grizzlies.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Grizzlies, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now they are double-digit favorites for the first time in their last 16 games.  You're paying a tax to back the Grizzlies at this point.

Detroit is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Pistons are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Detroit is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Pistons have only lost one of their last 15 games by more than 10 points, making for a 14-1 system backing them pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

20* Iowa State/Iowa FS1 No-Brainer on Iowa State +5.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are legit.  They are 7-1 this season with their lone loss coming to Connecticut, which may be the best team in the country at 10-0.  They have upset wins over UNC and Villanova and also handed St. John's their only loss of the season, 71-60.

The Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes 73-53 at home last season.  Iowa isn't as good as they were last season, and they could be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG).  He was seen in a walking boot on Wednesday after suffering an injury early against Duke, but playing through it in a 62-74 loss on Tuesday.  Now the Hawkeyes are in a terrible spot playing their 2nd game in 3 days after having to travel back from Madison Square Garden where they played Duke in the Jimmy V Classic.  

Murray was clearly hobbled as he went 3-for-9 for 8 points against the Blue Devils and wasn't nearly as aggressive as he usually is.  With Murray at anything less than 100%, the Hawkeyes should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Cyclones, let alone favored at all.  Iowa has been exposed when stepping up in class losing by 12 to Duke and by 13 to TCU against their two best opponents thus far.

Iowa State has had the last three days off and will the fresher, more prepared team.  Their defense travels as they rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency.  They are holding opponents to 37.3% shooting overall and 26.3% from 3-point range while allowing only 56.7 points per game.  They are holding opponents to 17.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover two of its last three games.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

15* UConn/Florida ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4.5

The UConn Huskies are legitimately one of the top teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS this season with all nine wins coming by double-digits.  That includes wins over Oregon by 24, Alabama by 15 and Iowa State by 18 on neutrals.

The Huskies rank 8th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense.  They are +27.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average.  Florida is only +13.8 points per game based on the same criteria, meaning UConn is 14 points better.  Yet they are only 4.5-point road favorites tonight, which is a discount.

Florida already has three losses this season and two of them were very concerning.  They lost outright as a 12-point home favorite to Florida Atlantic and were crushed by 29 by West Virginia on a neutral.  They also lost to Xavier by 7 on a neutral.  Their six wins have all come against overmatched competition with five of the wins coming as double-digits favorites.  When they have stepped up in class they have lost, and now they face their toughest opponent to date.

The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Gators are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Connecticut Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 11-13 SU but 15-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 0.7 points per game.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Memphis Grizzlies, who are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game on the season.  The Grizzlies are still without one of their best players in Desmond Bane, too, while the Thunder are almost fully healthy.

The Thunder are 41-17-3 ATS in their last 61 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma City is 36-15 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Thunder are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins at Minnesota and Atlanta and only a 4-point loss at New Orleans.  Take the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +6.5

The Sacramento Kings are finally a legit team this year but oddsmakers are failing to catch up to it.  The Kings are 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They are once again catching too many points tonight at Milwaukee..  The spot is good for the Kings as they come in on two days' rest.

The Bucks have let each of the last four teams hang around and it was against four bad teams, too.  They only beat the Knicks by 6, lost outright to the Lakers at home, only beat the Hornets by 9 and only beat the Magic by 7.  Both the Magic and Hornets are depleted due to injury right now, too.  It will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Bucks tonight as well.

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Milwaukee is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following two consecutive road wins.  The Kings are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The Bucks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* CBB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Pennsylvania +14.5

Pennsylvania is catching too many points tonight.  The only blowout road losses they suffered came early in the season at Iona and at West Virginia.  Their other four losses have all come by 7 points or fewer, including a 7-point loss at Missouri which remains undefeated.

Villanova is way down this season and should not be laying 14.5-points to Pennsylvania, which is probably the best team in the Ivy League when at full strength, which they are right now.  The Wildcats are just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  Their three wins came over LaSalle by 13, Delaware State by 10 and Oklahoma by 3.

So the Wildcats haven't won by this margin all season.  They also suffered upset losses to Temple, Iowa State, Portland and Oregon.  Oddsmakers have not caught up to how poor this team is, and that is clearly the case again tonight listing Villanova as a 14.5-point favorite in a rivalry game here against a potent Pennsylvania squad.

Penn is 71-49 ATS in its last 120 games following two consecutive losses.  The Quakers are 47-24 ATS in their last 71 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game.  The Quakers are 59-27 ATS in their last 86 road games vs. teams that average 33 or fewer rebounds per game.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pennsylvania Wednesday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Sam Houston State +10

Sam Houston State is 7-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road at Nevada.  That includes upset road wins at Oklahoma and at Utah as double-digit underdogs.  Oklahoma is 6-2 this season while Utah just beat Arizona to improve to 7-2 this season.  Nevada is also 7-2 this season.

Oklahoma State is clearly vulnerable this season.  The Cowboys were upset at home by Southern Illinois, upset on a neutral by UCF and lost by 10 at UConn.  They also only beat UT-Arlington by 11 at home and DePaul by 4 on a neutral.  Sam Houston State is more than capable of taking the Cowboys to the wire, so catching double-digits here is too much.

Sam Houston State is +11.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Oklahoma State is 15.3 points per game given the same criteria.  So the Cowboys are only +3.4 points per game better than Sam Houston State, thus this line should not be double-digits even when you adjust for home-court advantage.

Sam Houston State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good shooting teams making 45% or better.  Oklahoma State is 0-6 ATS in its last six December home games.  The Bearkats are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games overall, including 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.  Bet Sam Houston State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas-Little Rock +28

Memphis should not be a 28-point favorite over Little Rock tonight.  The Tigers have a way of playing to their level of competition.  They are 6-2 this season but their largest margin of victory has been 19 points.  Now they are asked to lay 28 points to Little Rock.

This despite Little Rock only losing one game by more than 22 points this season despite playing a tough schedule.  They only lost by 19 at Indiana as 28.5-point dogs, and Indiana is better than Memphis.

Memphis is +12.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Little Rock is -10.1 points per game given the same criteria, so 23 points worth than Memphis.  But we don't get to 28 even when adjusting for home-court advantage.  Then you have to factor in the sandwich spot, which shows Memphis coming off a win over Ole Miss and with Auburn on deck Saturday.  They will be looking ahead to that game.

Little Rock is 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Arkansas-Little Rock Tuesday.

15* CBB Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tarleton State +19.5

Tarleton State has been too good this season to be getting this many points even to Baylor.  The Texans are 5-3 this season with upset wins over Belmont by 8 and Boston College by 16.  They three losses all came to three very good teams and were competitive, losing by 3 at Arizona State as 14-point dogs, by 7 to Drake and by 12 at Wichita State.

Baylor is clearly down this season with two losses already, and the six wins mostly coming against overmatched competition with the exception of a 5-point win over UCLA and a 1-point win over Gonzaga.  They also lost by 26 at Marquette and by 7 to Virginia.  Tarleton is the best team they will have faced outside the Power 5 teams, and I think the Texans give them a run for their money tonight.

Tarleton is +5.4 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Baylor is 16.4 points per game given the same criteria, so 11.0 points per game better than Tarleton.  We don't get to 19.5 points even when we adjust for home-court advantage and strength of schedule here, so there's clearly value on the Texans.

Tarleton State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Baylor is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Roll with Tarleton State Tuesday.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Lakers +5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are as healthy as they have been all season right now and are starting to play up to their potential as a result.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They continue to be lacking the respect they deserve as 5.5-point underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

Cleveland is banged up and hasn't been playing great for a few weeks now.  They are just 7-8 SU & 6-8-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Lakers with the way they are playing right now.  Cleveland is 14-39-4 ATS in its last 57 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +10

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 7-3 SU this season with two of their losses coming on the road to Purdue and Iowa State, which are two Top 25 opponents and they were competitive with Iowa State.  They also lost by 4 to St. Thomas at home.

Milwaukee should not be catching double-digits tonight considering they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Chattanooga is 5-3 SU this season with three wins by 11 points or more over Oakland City, Covenant and Gardner Webb.  They aren't blowing out any decent teams as they only beat Murray State by 3 and Tennessee Tech by 7.  They also lost outright to Lipscomb at home.

Milwaukee is +4.2 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Chattanooga is +5 points per game given the same criteria, only 0.8 points per game better than Milwaukee.  This line should be much closer to PK than 10.  Milwaukee is 7-0 ATS in its last seven December road games.  Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Kent State +15

Kent State is the most underrated team in the country. The Golden Flashes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-0 ATS this season.  Their two losses came by 2 at College of Charleston as a 2.5-point dog and by 5 at Houston as 19-point dogs.  Houston is 8-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Charleston is 8-1 and also one of the most underrated teams in the country.

If Kent State can play with Houston on the road, it can play with Gonzaga on the road.  Keep in mind the six wins by Kent State have all come by 15 points or more this season, too.  The Golden Flashes are +14.9 points per game versus what their opponents average on offense and defense this season.

Gonzaga is +17.4 points per game given the same criteria, which means they'd only be favored by 2.5 points over Kent State on a neutral if you don't adjust for strength of schedule.  But the Bulldogs are 15-point home favorites here, which is way too high given what we've seen from them thus far.

Gonzaga is one of the most overrated teams in the country at 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS despite being favored in every game but one this season, which was a 19-point loss at Texas.  They only beat Xavier by 4 and Michigan State by 1, while also losing by 16 to Purdue and by 1 to Baylor.  They have played a tough schedule for once early in the season, and they have been exposed.  This is one of the worst Gonzaga teams we've seen in years.

The Golden Flashes are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Kent State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.  The Bulldogs are 3-12-2 ATS n their last 18 games overall.  Gonzaga is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Kent State Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors PK

The Toronto Raptors are as healthy as they've been all season with their six best players in Siakam, Anunoby, VanVleet, Trent Jr, Barnes and Boucher all healthy right now.  Five of the six have missed at least three games this season, so that is important.  I think they are ready to take down the Boston Celtics tonight.

Boston is in a terrible spot, while it's a favorable one for the Raptors, who had yesterday off.  The Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They just won 103-92 in Brooklyn last night after losing in OT to the Heat the game prior.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight.  Al Horford is out while Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight.

The Raptors are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  The Raptors are 16-6 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  Roll with the Raptors Monday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +6

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 10-13 SU but 14-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 1.0 points per game.  Let's just compare that to the Hawks, who are 13-10 SU but 10-12-1 ATS and only outscoring opponents by 0.7 points per game this season.  Given those numbers, the Thunder should not be catching 6 points here.

Now you have to factor in that the Thunder are fully healthy right now while the Hawks are not.  They are without John Collins, and both Trae Young and DeAndre Hunter are questionable tonight.  I assume Young is playing or this line wouldn't be this high, but the fact that he's hampered by a shoulder injury is not good for the Hawks.

The Thunder are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Oklahoma City is 40-17-3 ATS in its last 60 games following an ATS win.  The Thunder are 24-11 ATS in the last 35 meetings, and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 trips to Atlanta.  Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset win as an underdog.  Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams that make 33% or less.  Take the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

This line is short due to the Sacramento Kings playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-96 win over the Clippers yesterday.  But they had two days off prior to that game, and no starter played more than 30 minutes for the Kings due to the blowout win.  They will still be very fresh and ready to go for the Bulls tonight.

Chicago is one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA.  They have gone just 9-13 SU and are 1-3 SU in their last four games with road losses to the Thunder, Suns and Warriors.  They weren't really even competitive with Phoenix or Golden State, and they won't be competitive with Sacramento, either.

Plays against road underdogs (Chicago) - following two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that is off a road win by 10 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on zero rest.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +22

It's time to 'sell high' on the Missouri Tigers.  They are 8-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  They have played seven home games against bottom feeders and earned an 88-84 win at Wichita State last time out.  It's now a sandwich spot for the Tigers with Kansas on deck.

I think the Tigers will be flat for this one, and I think SE Missouri State is good enough to hang within 22 points today.  They are 5-3 on the season which includes an upset win at South Florida as an 11-point dog, an upset win at Evansville as a 2-point dog and a 13-point loss at Bradley.  They haven't lost a game by more than 16 points this season.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Missouri) - after covering five or six of their last seven, a top team (80% or better) against a good team (60% to 80%) are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Redhawks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Redhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet SE Missouri State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -1

The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now and should be more than 1-point home favorites over the Denver Nuggets today.  The Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-2 AS in their last 10 games overall.  Their two losses came to Boston and Memphis.

The Denver Nuggets are also 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, but they have been feasting on a weak schedule beating the Thunder in OT, the short-handed Clippers and the Rockets twice.  They lost by 8 at Atlanta.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on North Carolina +1

This is a great 'buy low' opportunity on the UNC Tar Heels.  They were the No. 1 ranked team in the country until losing three straight to Iowa State, Alabama and Indiana.  Now we are getting them as underdogs to a Virginia Tech team that will be a big step down in class for the Tar Heels.

Virginia Tech is 7-1 against one of the easiest schedule in the country.  They lost to College of Charleston, and their seven wins have come against Delaware State, Lehigh, William & Mary, Old Dominion (by 4), Penn State (by 2), Charleston Southern (by 5) and Minnesota.  This will be their toughest test yet, and it's worth noting UNC beat College of Charleston by 16.

Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with North Carolina Sunday.

20* St. John's/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. John's +7

Iowa State has been overvalued since an upset win over then-No. 1 UNC and also an upst win over Villanova the game prior.  Well, both those blue bloods are down this season as UNC has lost three straight, and Villanova is 3-5 this season.

The Cyclones have since failed to cover two in a row losing by 18 to UConn as 5.5-point dogs and only beating a bad North Dakota team by 19 as 24.5-point favorites.  They should not be favored by 7 over St. John's today.

The Red Storm are 8-0 this season with wins over Syracuse, Temple and Nebraska.  I know they have played the easier schedule, but this is a veteran team that got some great transfers and is better than they are getting credit for here with this lack of respect as 7-point dogs.

St. John's is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  Bet St. John's Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on North Dakota +16

Portland just got to play Michigan State, Villanova and UNC in a tournament in Portland.  They were flat in their 100-79 win over Multnomah Bible in the game following that tournament, and I still think they'll be lacking motivation here against North Dakota to win this game by margin.

North Dakota is playing very well of late.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset Elon as 6.5-point road dogs, upset Utah Tech by 15 as 3.5-point home dogs, upset CS-Fullerton by 16 as 5.5-point dogs and covered in a 19-point loss at Iowa State as 24-point dogs.

Portland is 2-18-1 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Pilots are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after a combined score of 165 points or more.  The Fighting Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take North Dakota Saturday.