Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards + the points over the Charlotte Hornets.  Charlotte upset Boston as a huge underdog in its last game.  Off that upset win, we'll fade Charlotte at home tonight, as it's covered just 40% as a home favorite off an upset win as an underdog of more than 8 points.  Take Washington.

At 9:40, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Houston Rockets.  The Lakers will play this game with revenge from a 128-94 loss at Houston earlier this month.  We'll lay the points as NBA teams are 49-34 ATS when favored and playing with revenge from a 34-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season.  Take the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Boston.  The Grizzlies stormed back from a 19-point deficit last night by outscoring the San Antonio Spurs by 29 points in the 2nd half, and equaled their largest victory of the season.  I like Memphis to continue that solid play tonight vs. the Celtics, as it's 103-54 ATS at home off a straight-up win, when priced from -2.5 to +8.5.  Take Memphis.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Nets were knocked out of last season's playoffs by the 76ers, and fall into my best Playoff revenge angles, with records of 30-7, 103-54, and 108-48 ATS.  Even better:  the Nets are 60-23 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +12, vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Nets.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Minnesota.  The T-Wolves played last night in San Francisco, and downed the Warriors, 104-101.  We'll fade the unrested Wolves tonight vs. the rested Suns, as Phoenix is 86-47 ATS when rested, and playing an unrested foe, provided Phoenix wasn't favored by 8+ points.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Toronto. The Milwaukee Bucks have yet to cover the point spread, as they’re 0-9-1 ATS on the season after beating Chicago by 9 points, 118-109, as a 9.5-point favorite on Monday.  They’re a road favorite at Toronto this evening, and I like the Bucks to break through with their first victory for their bettors for two reasons.  First,  NBA teams on 9-game ATS losing streaks have gone 61-31 ATS since 1990.   And, second, Milwaukee plays this game with revenge from a 19-point loss here, at Toronto, on November 1st.  And the Bucks are 41-22-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a 15-point or worse defeat.  Lay the points with the Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  Since making the trade for James Harden, the Clippers are 0-5 SU/ATS.  Clearly, that wasn't what GM Trent Redden had in mind when he pulled the trigger on the trade with the 76ers.  But I also don't expect the Clippers to continue their poor play.  We'll grab the points tonight, as rested, road underdogs of more than 5 points, off 3 SU/ATS losses, have gone 531-434 ATS since 1990.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Miami Heat.  Miami had to play on Saturday in Atlanta, and upset the Hawks, 117-109, as an 8-point road underdog.  We'll take San Antone vs. the unrested Heat, as Gregg Popovich's men are 42-21-1 ATS vs. unrested Eastern Conference foes, including 18-6-1 ATS at home.  And NBA underdogs/Pk are 83-49-4 ATS off 4+ losses vs. unrested foes off 4+ wins.  Take the Spurs + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Portland.  The Kings come into tonight's game off back to back blowout losses to Houston, by scores of 107-89 and 122-97.  And they've lost 3 in a row, overall.  We'll lay the points tonight, as home favorites of -3.5 (or more) points have covered 68.6% since 1990 off back to back road losses by 18+ points.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  These two teams met less than two weeks ago, and the Thunder upset the Cavaliers, 108-105.  But Darius Garland (17.7 ppg) didn't play in that game.  Garland is back now, and just played 35 minutes (his highest this season) in the Cavs' 115-104 win over Golden State.  On the OKC side, Lu Dort poured in 25 points in 39 minutes, but is questionable to play tonight with a hip injury.  I like the Cavaliers tonight, as they're a solid 55-32 ATS off a double-digit home win.  Meanwhile, the Thunder are a soft 17-32 ATS at home vs. revenge-minded foes.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Houston Rockets.  These two teams met here, in Houston, on Saturday night, and the Rockets routed the Kings, 107-89, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  De'Aaron Fox missed that game, and will miss his 3rd straight game tonight, as he has a sprained ankle.  But tonight, it's the Kings who have been installed as the underdog, rather than the Rockets.  And we'll happily take the points, and look for a bounce-back game by Sacramento tonight.  The Kings 31-14-1 ATS on the road when playing with revenge.  And they are also 13-5 ATS off an upset loss, including 5-0 ATS off back-to-back losses.  And they're 16-6 ATS off back to back losses, generally.  That bodes well for Sacramento.  As does the fact that Houston is 22-44-2 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  And it is also 2-14-1 ATS its last 17 (and 18-43-1 ATS its last 62) vs. foes off back to back losses.  And the Rockets are 1-12 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss.  Grab the points with the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Memphis gets another bite at the apple tonight.  It will be playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games at Portland.  Friday's game looked to be going well, as Memphis led, 100-90 with just over 3 minutes left.  But it collapsed, and fell by 2 points in overtime.  The Grizzlies fall into a 123-75 ATS regular season "right-back revenge" system of mine, which plays on certain teams in the 2nd of back-to-back meetings that lost SU in the first meeting.  Additionally, Portland is 1-17 SU and 3-14-1 ATS its last 18 as a home underdog (and 20-40-2 ATS its last 62).  Take the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the Golden State Warriors.  Cleveland comes into today's game off a 121-116 upset loss at Indiana, while Golden State won (but failed to cover) at Oklahoma City on Friday, 141-139.  Golden State has been anything but "Road Warriors" the last 4 seasons, as they've gone 54-83-3 ATS on the road, including 5-17 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss.  We'll fade the Warriors today.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs.  The Raptors come into this game off a 114-99 blowout loss to Philly, while the Spurs enter off back-to-back upset wins over the Phoenix Suns.  San Antone is now 3-2 on the season, while Toronto is 2-4.  I'll lay the points with the Raptors, as they're 32-19 ATS off a blowout loss by 12 (or more) points, including 5-0 ATS their last five.  And San Antonio is an ugly 47-88-1 ATS vs. foes off an ATS loss, if the Spurs are not off an ATS win, and not playing with revenge.  Take Toronto.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Brooklyn Nets.  Boston is looking like the best team in the league, and it ripped the nets for 155 points on Wednesday.  Boston had Thursday and Friday off to rest and prepare for this division game against Brooklyn, which played last night (and won) in Chicago.  We'll take Boston, as the Celtics have gone 74-39 ATS off a 20-point (or greater) home win, including 16-4 ATS vs. unrested foes.  Take the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Both teams enter this game with identical 3-2 records.  Orlando will be returning home after a 4-game road trip (which included a 106-103 loss at the Lakers), while Los Angeles will be hitting the road after its back-to-back home wins over Orlando and the Clippers.  We'll fade Los Angeles, as it's 20-49 ATS as a favorite (or PK) on the road off back to back home wins, including 11-36 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Grab the points with the Magic.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over Philadelphia.  The Suns lost not once, but twice at home to Victor Wembanyama's Spurs (as favorites of -7 and -10.5).  And in the 2nd match-up, on Thursday, Wemby got a career-high 38 points!  I expect Coach Frank Vogel to get his troops to come out with energy and focus this afternoon, as they won't want to lose three in a row this early in the season.  For technical support, consider that NBA road underdogs have covered 73% since 1990 off back to back upset losses, if they were favored by at least 7 points in those 2 games, and were now playing an opponent off back to back wins.  Take Phoenix plus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Dallas.  The Nuggies were smashed, 110-89, by the T-Wolves two nights ago, and will look to bounce back tonight against the undefeated Mavericks.  We'll lay the points, as defending champs have covered 64% at home the last 34 years, if they were off a loss by more than 20 points, and were now matched up against an opponent off a win.  Take Denver.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers.  This is the first of two back-to-back games here, in the Rose City, between these Western Conference clubs.  The Blazers come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins at Toronto and Detroit.  But those two upsets have triggered a negative 177-269-7 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off back to back upsets.  We'll go against a Portland team which is a putrid 0-17 straight-up, and 2-14-1 ATS its last 17 as a home dog (and 19-40-2 ATS its last 61).  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over New York.  The Bucks were throttled, 130-111, by Toronto on Wednesday, as a 4-point favorite.  We'll take Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. to bounce back tonight, as they've gone 25-8-2 ATS as a favorite of 13 or less points (or PK) following a game where they failed to cover the spread by 20+ points.  Take Milwaukee.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over San Antone.  We played on the Spurs two nights ago, and got the $$$ when San Antonio won outright, 115-114, as a 7-point underdog.  Phoenix did, however, lead by 20 points, but slowly blew that lead, and finally saw the Spurs take their first lead of the game with 1.2 seconds left after Keldon Johnson stole the ball from Kevin Durant, and went in for a lay-up.  Kevin Durant will no doubt want to make amends for his game-losing turnover, and the good news for the Suns is they get to play the same team tonight, in the second of back-to-back meetings in Phoenix.  I expect Frank Vogel's men to not take their feet off the gas, and for them to absolutely throttle the Spurs.  The Suns are 26-10 ATS as a favorite off an upset loss, including 9-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Philadelphia.  These two Atlantic Division rivals are meeting for the 2nd time in five nights.  We played on the 76ers in the first meeting, and were rewarded with a 114-107 victory (as a 4-point road favorite).  The Sixers are at home for this game, and we'll grab the points with the Raptors.  Toronto is 17-10-1 ATS as a road underdog with revenge, while Philly is a horrible 11-21 ATS as a home favorite vs. a revenge-minded foe.  And the Raptors are 31-22 ATS the last 53 meetings.  Take Toronto as a big underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Golden State.  These two teams met last Friday, and the Warriors upended Sacramento, 122-114.  We'll take the Kings in this rematch, as Sacto is 38-19-1 ATS on the road, including 13-3-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  And Golden State is 1-11-1 ATS its last 13 (and 32-77-3 ATS its last 112) when it was off a point spread win, and playing a revenge-minded foe.  Grab the points with Sacramento.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Utah Jazz.  The Grizzlies come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses.  The good news for Memphis is that it's an awesome 26-7-1 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses when it wasn't getting 4.5 (or more) points.  And Utah is an ugly 18-41-2 ATS when priced from -6 to +2 points.  Take the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over New York.  This is the 2nd of back-to-back games between these teams.  New York won Round 1 in Cleveland last night, 109-91.  We'll take the underdog Cavaliers in the rematch, as Cleveland falls into a 489-350 ATS revenge system of mine.  Even better:  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS to start the season.  And at Game 5 forward, road teams have covered 76% of non-division games since 1990, if they were winless ATS, and off a straight-up loss.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Phoenix.  We played against Gregg Popovich's crew on Sunday, and were rewarded by a 40-point Clippers blowout.  But off that horrible game, we'll back the Silver and Black tonight in the desert.  Phoenix will be without two of its best players, as Bradley Beal and Devin Booker will be in street clothes.  And the Spurs are 101-58-2 under Popovich in the regular season off a loss by more than 10 points, when their opponent was off an ATS win.  Additionally, Phoenix is an ugly 26-56 ATS at home off a win by more than 17 points, if it was playing a rested opponent.  Take the Spurs.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over the Charlotte Hornets.  We played on the Nets +6.5 over Dallas on Friday, as our NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month and were rewarded with a wire-to-wire cover.  Brooklyn is 0-2 straight-up, but 2-0 "in Vegas."  And we'll take Brooklyn once again in this road game at Charlotte, as rested teams, with a .200 (or worse) win percentage, have covered 69% since 1990 if they were 100% Perfect ATS on the season.  Take Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over the Indiana Pacers.  The Pacers have scored 125+ points in each of their two games to start the season.  We'll fade Indiana, as undefeated NBA teams have gone 7-29-1 ATS after scoring more than 115 points in each of their 2 previous games, provided they weren't getting 4+ points in their current game.  And if our 'play-against' team was matched up against a sub-.400 foe, then our 29-7 stat zooms to 12-0.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over San Antone.  We played against the Clippers on Friday, and got the $$$ with the Utah Jazz, who pulled off the 120-118 upset of L.A.  The Clippers will welcome Victor Wembanyama & Co. to the West Coast for their first road game of the season.  And the Spurs have been dreadful away from the Alamo City, as they've gone 11-27 ATS, including 0-12 ATS their last 12 when priced from +5 to +9.5 points!  Meanwhile, the Clips are a solid 38-22 ATS as a favorite off an upset loss.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Philadelphia.  We played on Philly last night at Toronto, and were rewarded with a 114-107 win (and cover).  But we'll switch gears, and play against the unrested Sixers tonight.  Philly is a poor 34-57-2 ATS when playing at home without rest following a road game the day before, if its opponent was rested.  Grab the points with the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks won their opener, 118-117, over the Philadelphia 76ers, and Damian Lillard had a smashing debut, as he scored 39 points.  But Milwaukee failed to cover the spread in that game.  I don't think they'll cover tonight, either, as Atlanta falls into some of my very best NBA systems, with records of 140-84, 95-28, and 89-32.  The Hawks are 0-2 ATS to start the season, and they're 19-5 ATS off back to back ATS losses, including 6-0 ATS when getting more than 5 points.  And Milwaukee is 14-27 ATS when favored by 7 or more points at home, off a straight-up win.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over the Toronto Raptors.  In its opening game, Philly took the Milwaukee Bucks down to the wire on Thursday, but narrowly lost, 118-117.  Tonight, Nick Nurse's men will face the coach's former team, Toronto.  The Raptors also narrowly lost, 104-103, in overtime, at Chicago, last night.  And that lowered the Raptors' season record to 1-1.  The Raptors are a soft 10-17 ATS as home underdogs, while Philly is 14-7 ATS as a road favorite (including 5-0-1 ATS its last 6).  And rested road favorites have cashed 64% since 1990 vs. unrested division rivals, if our road favorite owned a worse record.  Take Philly.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls over the Detroit Pistons.  Detroit pulled off an upset win last night at Charlotte, 111-99.  But off that blowout win, we'll fade Monty Williams' men tonight.  For technical support, consider that Detroit is a disastrous 0-16 ATS at home off a win by 7+ points!  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Utah was blown out, 130-114, by the Sacramento Kings, on Wednesday.  We'll take the Jazz to bounce back, as they're 42-20 ATS as home underdogs, and 11-4 ATS at home vs. Los Angeles.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are a wallet-busting 1-9-1 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS win, if they were playing a sub-.400 opponent off a loss.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Dallas.  This will be the first time these teams have faced off since Kyrie Irving was traded by the Nets to the Mavericks.  And I expect a hotly-contested game which could go down to the wire.  Indeed, the last five meetings between these clubs have been decided by 2, 4, 2, 3 and 4 points.  I expect a similar game tonight, and love the underdog Nets.  Dallas did open its season with a 126-119 win vs. the San Antonio Spurs.  But it allowed a bad Spurs team to shoot 51.7% from the floor, and was only able to overtake San Antonio by ending the game with an 11-2 run.  Dallas was horrible as a favorite last season, and is 15-36-2 ATS its last 53 in that point spread role, including 3-20 ATS off a straight-up win.  Meanwhile, the Nets are 21-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Toronto.  These two teams met in last season's play-in round, and the Bulls upset Toronto, 109-105.  Unfortunately, the Bulls succumbed to Miami in the next game, and didn't qualify for the Playoffs.  In Chicago's first game this season, it was blown out, 124-104, by Oklahoma City here, at home.  The Bulls will try to redeem themselves tonight, and I expect a much better effort, as home teams off 20-point (or worse) losses in their home openers have covered 65% since 2000.  Take Chicago minus the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the Charlotte Hornets.  The Hornets upset Atlanta, 116-110, as a home underdog on Tuesday, while Detroit lost a squeaker at Miami, 103-102, as a 9.5-point road underdog.  Detroit will be an improved team this season, with newly-hired coach Monty Williams at the helm, and Cade Cunningham back from injury.  Indeed, Cunningham poured in 30 points vs. the Heat.  Charlotte is a poor 27-39 ATS at home off a home win.  Take Detroit + the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets opened their season with an impressive victory vs. the Lakers on Tuesday, and will look for a 2nd straight win tonight, on Beale Street.  But I like Memphis to pull the upset, as the Grizzlies are 50-24 ATS at home vs. foes off a win, if Memphis wasn't favored by 2+ points.  Even worse for Denver:  it's 63-96 ATS on the road off a point spread win.  And the Nuggets are a dismal 0-5 ATS their last 5, and 1-9 ATS their last 10 at Memphis.  Take the Grizzlies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 5 between Denver and Miami.  This series has generally been a low-scoring series.  Game 1 went UNDER the total by 21.5 points; Game 3 went UNDER the total by 9.5 points; and Game 4 went UNDER the total by 8.5 points.  The only game which went OVER the total was Game 2, and that barely went Over by just 2.5 points.  I'll look for yet another low-scoring game on this Monday, as the Heat's offense has been struggling mightily since its opening three wins in the Boston series (in which it averaged 120.6 ppg).  Over its last eight games, the Heat have averaged just 99.3 ppg, and seven of those eight games have sailed UNDER the total.  Denver's also played seven of its last 10 UNDER.  Take the Under in Game 5.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  We played on Denver in Games 1 + 3 in this series (and passed Game 2).  But we will take Miami in Game 4, as Denver's a horrible road team off an ATS win.  And especially against foes that failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game, as Denver's 13-44-1 ATS its last 58.  Yikes!  Moreover, Miami is a solid 38-12 straight-up, and 31-16-3 ATS at home as a winning team off a straight-up home defeat.  And it's 56-34 ATS in the Playoffs when it didn't lead in a series.  Grab the points with Jimmy Butler & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets on the moneyline in Game 3, to win straight-up.  The Nuggets fell, 111-108, at home in Game 2.  But we'll take them to win Wednesday's game, straight-up, as Denver is 19-5 (79%) straight up as a single-digit road favorite off a loss (compared to 29-20 (59%) off a win).  Meanwhile, Miami is 5-13 straight-up as a home dog of +4 points or less, including 1-5 straight-up off a win.  And home dogs are 9-30 straight-up in the playoffs in Game 3 of an NBA series, including 0-11 straight-up when the point spread was in the narrow +2.5 to +3.5-point range.  We'll take the Nuggets on the moneyline.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Miami Heat.  Kudos to Miami, which knocked out the last two Eastern Conference Champs (Milwaukee, Boston).  Unfortunately, knocking out Denver will be most difficult.  The Nuggets have home court advantage, and are 42-7 at home this season.  They're also 30-17-2 ATS at Ball Arena, and have covered the spread by an average of 3.34 ppg.  We'll fade Miami in this Game 1, as Eastern Conference teams are 1-13 straight-up, and 2-12 ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals when playing away from home.  And Denver is 23-11 SU and 25-9 ATS vs. Miami in the last 34 meetings, including 5-0 SU/ATS the last five here, in Denver.  And Denver won their last five home games vs. the Heat by an average of 15 ppg.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 7 between Boston and Miami.  We played on the Under in each of Games 5 and Game 6, and got the $$$ in both.  And we'll come right back with the Under in this Game 7, on Memorial Day.  As I mentioned in those previous write-ups, the Celtics have gone under 17-5 in elimination games, including the last 10 straight.  And #2-seeded teams are 21-3 under in their last 24 elimination games, including 12 straight.  Miami, meanwhile, will be playing its first elimination game in the Playoffs this season.  And it's 16-9 under in elimination games.  We'll ride with the under once again.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 6 between Boston and Miami.  We played on the UNDER in Games 4 + 5, and will come right back with the UNDER here, in Game 6.  After dropping the first three games (all of which went OVER the total), Boston has now staved off elimination twice -- keyed by its 3-point defense -- and each of those two games went under the total.  So, after getting torched by the Heat in Game 3 (128 points, including 19-of-35 from 3-point territory), Boston has now held Miami's offense to under 100 in each of the past two games (99, 97), as Miami's converted just 17 of 55 from long distance the past two games.  The Celtics are now 23-10 UNDER their last 33 elimination games, including 9-0 UNDER their last 9.  We'll look for that streak to hit 10 straight on Saturday.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Miami Heat.  The Celtics are down 3-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series, so tonight's game (much like Tuesday's game) is a 'must-win' for Boston.  The Heat were in a similar position vs. Milwaukee, and they upset the Bucks, 128-126, in overtime, as a 13.5-point underdog.  But in 7-game series with a 2-2-1-1-1 format, home teams have typically done well in Game 5 when down 3-games-to-1, as they've cashed 61.7% since 1990.  And, regardless of series format, or venue, teams down 3-1 have cashed 56.5%, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were a 2-seed, and favored by 4+ points.  Take Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on Game 5 between Boston and Miami to go UNDER the total.  We played on the Under in Game 4, and narrowly won when the teams combined for 215 points, which was 1.5 points less than the total.  We'll come right back with the UNDER in this game, as it falls into a 113-54 totals system of mine.  Even better:  #2-seeded teams have gone UNDER 19 of their last 22 elimination games, including 10-0 UNDER their last 10.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Miami.  The Celtics are down 3-games-to-none, but I don't believe they'll go down without a fight.  Indeed, before Boston's 128-102 loss to Miami on Sunday, it had only lost by 20+ points five times in the last two seasons.  And the Celtics bounced back from each of those blowout losses to go 5-0 SU/ATS in their next game (winning by an average of 13.2 ppg).  Boston is also 9-1 ATS in the Playoffs when priced from -3.5 to +7.5 if it was off back to back SU/ATS losses, and not up in a Playoff series.  And it's 20-4 ATS away from home in the Playoffs if it didn't lead in the series, and failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points in its previous game.  Take the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat to go UNDER the total.  The Celtics gave up 128 to Miami in Game 3, and were blown out by 26 points.  Off that defensive debacle, I expect a lower scoring game tonight.  The UNDER has gone 55-34 in the last 89 post-season games when it involved a team which gave up 115+ points in its previous game.  And Boston is 13-6 UNDER off an upset playoff defeat.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Miami Heat.  The Celts have their proverbial back against the wall after losing both games at home to start this series.  We'll fade Miami as a home underdog, as home dogs have covered just 33% in the Playoffs since 1991 off back to back road underdog (or PK'em) wins.  Even better:  Game 3 home teams have gone just 25-44 SU and 28-41 ATS off an upset win as a 5.5-point (or greater) underdog in Game 2.  Finally, the Celtics are an awesome 15-1-1 ATS as a favorite of -2 (or more) points off back to back upset defeats.  And Miami is 17-37 ATS at home vs. a revenge-minded foe off a straight-up loss.  Lay the points.

At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 3 between Boston and Miami.  The 2nd game of this Eastern Conference Finals barely went over the total of 215 (by one point), as Miami won, 111-105, as a 10-point road underdog.  We'll look for Sunday's game to go under the total, as Boston has gone UNDER 67% since 1991 as a road favorite off back to back losses, when the line was greater than 195 points.  Moreover, it is 10-2 UNDER off an upset home playoff defeat.  And it's 21-8 UNDER in the Playoffs when the O/U line is 183+ points, if Boston is off back to back defeats.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver.  It's been a case of "close, but no cigar" for the Los Angeles Lakers in this series.  They're down 2 games to none but haven't lost against the point spread in either of the first two games.  We'll lay the points with the Purple and Gold, and go against the #1-seeded Nuggets.  For technical support, consider that NBA #1 seeds have covered just 30 of 80 when up 2-games-to-none, and not laying more than 4 points.  And LeBron James' teams have gone 56-29 ATS in the Playoffs when favored by 2 or more points, if they did not have a series lead.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Miami.  The Celts lost here, at home, 123-116, on Wednesday to Erik Spoelstra's Heat.  And that was Boston's 3rd straight defeat at the hands of Miami.  We'll take Boston to bounce back from that loss, as it's an awesome 62-29 ATS when playing with double-revenge, if it failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in the prior meeting.  And it's 71-41-2 ATS off a home loss, if favored vs. a foe off a win.  Finally, Boston's a reliable 10-1 ATS its last 11 off an upset playoff defeat.  Lay the points with Jayson Tatum & Co. in Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

On Sunday, at 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston Celtics/Philadelphia 76ers Game 7.  These two Atlantic Division rivals played an exceptionally low scoring Game 6, won by Boston, 95-86.  We played on the under in that game, and easily won, as it went UNDER the total of 210.5 by 29.5 points.  Understandably, the number for this Game 7 has been set lower by the oddsmakers, but it's still too high.  Philadelphia has gone 31-17 UNDER away from home vs. division rivals, while Boston has gone 19-10 Under at home vs. division rivals when the O/U line was less than 213.  We'll once again take the UNDER in this rivalry playoff game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Phoenix game.  The Suns were blown out, 118-102, on Tuesday.  And that Game 5 went Under the total by 7.5 points.  We'll look for another low-scoring game in Phoenix, on Thursday, as Playoff games with O/U lines > 226 have gone UNDER 57.2%.  Moreover, the Suns have gone 12-7-1 UNDER following a 15-point (or worse) blowout defeat.  And they've also gone 12-6 UNDER in the Playoffs following a straight-up loss.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Philadelphia.  The Celtics were upset at home, 115-103, as an 8-point home favorite on Tuesday.  We'll take Boston to bounce back, as it's 34-10 ATS following an upset loss to a division rival, if Boston was favored by 4+ points in that defeat.  And the Celtics are also 19-3 ATS away from home in the Playoffs, if they didn't lead in the series, and were off a home game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points.  Take Boston.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston/Philadelphia game.  The Celtics were a big favorite in this series vs. Philly.  But unless they win the next two games, they'll be sent packing by James Harden & Co.  Boston surrendered 116 & 115 in the last two games.  I look for the Celts to play a much better defensive game tonight, and for this to go under the total.  Indeed, Boston has gone under 7-1 following a loss in the Playoffs, if it was facing elimination.  And it's 6-1 UNDER off back to back Playoff losses.  Take the Under.

At 10:00 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Los Angeles.  The defending champs find themselves down 3-games-to-1 in this 'must-win' Game 5.  We'll lay the points with the Warriors, as NBA defending champs have covered 61% since 1990 in Games 5, 6 or 7 of a playoff series when facing elimination.  Even better:  the Warriors have covered 72.7% in the NBA Playoffs since 1990 when playing with double-revenge, while the Lakers are 0-8 straight-up, and 1-6-1 ATS in the Playoffs since 1990 when installed as an underdog of +5 (or more) points vs. a double-revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with Golden State.

At 10:00 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 5 between Golden State and Los Angeles.  The Warriors mustered just 101 points in defeat on Monday night.  That was the 2nd straight Under in this series, and we'll look for another relatively low-scoring game on Wednesday, as Golden State has now gone under 33-9 in the Playoffs following a loss in which it scored less than 110 points.  And the Under also falls into 141-85 and 201-114 Totals systems of mine.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Miami Heat.  Erik Spoelstra's men covered the point spread for the 7th straight time on Monday, when they defeated New York, 109-101, as a 4.5-point favorite.  But we'll go against Miami on Wednesday, as NBA Underdogs of +2 (or more) points, with a win percentage less than .666, have gone 37-73-3 ATS after covering the spread in 7+ games.  Lay the points with New York.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Los Angeles won Game 3 here, at Crypto.com Arena, 127-97.  We cashed the Under in that game, but will focus on the Side in this Game 4.  We'll grab the points with the Warriors, and go against a Lakers team which is an awful 14-51 ATS as a home favorite off a win, when playing a revenge-minded foe it defeated by more than 7 points in the previous meeting.  Additionally, the Warriors are 58-39 ATS off a SU/ATS loss when playing with revenge.  And, finally, NBA road teams have cashed 73 percent since 1990 after losing a playoff game in which they scored less than 99, and surrendered more than 121.  Take the Warriors + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Boston.  The Celtics blew out Philly for the 2nd straight game on Friday, as they won 114-102, to take a 2-games-to-1 series lead.  We'll fade the Celtics in Game 4, as they're 0-8 ATS on the road in the playoffs off back to back SU/ATS wins, if they won their previous game by more than 11 points.  Even better:  home teams off a loss have cashed 65.4% since 1990 in the 2nd of back to back games vs the same foe, if each game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 3 points or less.  Finally, Philly is 12-0 ATS its last 12 off back to back losses, if it wasn't favored by 8+ points.  Take the 76ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 3 between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors.  The Warriors blew out LA in Game 2, 127-100, and leveled the series at 1 game apiece.  After giving up 127 points, we'll look for a much better defensive effort by the Lakers today, and for this game to go UNDER the total.  Indeed, teams off playoff losses in which they gave up 120+ points have gone 21-8 UNDER in their next game when the O/U line was 218+ points.  And the Lakers are 22-8 UNDER off a double-digit road playoff loss when the O/U line was 193+ points (and 7-0 UNDER when the O/U line was 208+ points).  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets took care of business at home, as they won both games by double-digits, including a 97-87 win on Monday, in Game 2.  We'll fade Denver tonight on the road, as it's 27-58-1 ATS on the road off a win by more than eight points.  Additionally, home teams have gone 22-7 ATS when playing with at least 3 days' of rest off a road playoff loss.  Finally, #1-seeded teams up 2-games-to-none have covered just nine of 28 games as an underdog vs. teams seeded #4 (or worse).  Lay the points with Phoenix.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  LeBron James & Co. upset the Warriors on Tuesday.  We'll take Golden State to avenge that defeat, as the Lakers are 22-49 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe it upset in the previous meeting.  And LeBron James' teams have gone 0-6 ATS in the Playoffs in his career off an upset win, if playing a sub-.640 foe.  Finally, the Warriors are 61-38 ATS vs. division rivals, if the Warriors were off a SU loss.  Lay the points with Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Philadelphia.  The 76ers are on a 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS streak, including an upset win over Boston in Game 1 on Monday.  We'll fade Philly tonight, as NBA underdogs of +8 (or more) points have gone 12-40 ATS vs. foes off a game where they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points.  Even worse for the Sixers:   they're 18-36 ATS as road underdogs of more than 4 points vs. .501 (or better) foes.  And, finally, the Celtics are 60-29 ATS when playing with double revenge, if they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in the prior meeting.  Lay the points with Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers to go UNDER the total.  Boston has played its last five games over the total.  But we'll look for a lower-scoring game on Wednesday, as Boston has gone UNDER 19-10 in the Playoffs off a home loss.  Meanwhile, Philly is 93-53 UNDER the total when playing a foe off 5+ overs.  And the Sixers have also gone UNDER in 15 of their last 21 playoff games, including 6-0 UNDER when the O/U line has been 216+ points.  Take the UNDER.  As always, good luck, Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Miami.  The Heat took Game 1, 108-101.  We'll lay the points with the Knicks in Game 2, as they're 81-38 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, if playing with revenge from a home loss vs. a .500 (or better) foe.  Even better:  teams (like Miami) have covered just 23 of 65 away from home in the post-season after covering the spread in each of their three previous games by more than 7 points.  And #5-seeded teams (like New York) have gone 69-31-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Knicks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the game between Sacramento and Golden State.  Game 6 went comfortably under the total, as only 217 points were scored in Sacramento's 118-99 triumph.  We'll look for another low-scoring game at Golden 1 Center, as the Warriors have gone UNDER in 9 of their last 12 games when facing elimination, including 5-0 UNDER when not favored by more than 2 points.  And Golden State has also gone UNDER 31-9-1 in their last 41 Playoff games after a loss in which they failed to score 110 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Miami Heat.  The Knicks took 3 of the 4 games vs. the Heat this season, and covered the point spread in both home games.  And here at Madison Square Garden, the Knicks are 11-4 ATS their last 15, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when not favored by 8 or more points.  Meanwhile, the Heat are 7-14 ATS their last 21 road games.  And underdogs of more than 3 points are 0-9 ATS their last nine away from home off 3 covers by 7+ points.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Lakers game.  Three of the last four games in this series have gone UNDER the total.  And the only game which did not -- Game 4 -- only went Over because of an Overtime session (the game was tied at 104 at the end of regulation).  Thus, the last four games produced 196, 212, 208, and 215 in regulation (an average of 207.75).  We'll look for yet another relatively low-scoring game tonight.  This Grizzlies/Lakers series has now seen 18 of the last 23 go Under the total, including 12-1 Under when the O/U line was less than 224.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks shocked the Celtics in Boston to win Game 5, and close the gap in this series to 3-2.  Unfortunately for Atlanta, NBA home teams off a win in Game 5, but down 3-games-to-2, have gone 1-12 ATS in Game 6 when not favored by 2 or more points.  And the Celtics are 18-7 ATS in the Playoffs off an upset defeat, while the Hawks are 1-13 ATS in the Playoffs off an upset win.  Lay the points with Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Miami.  The Bucks have fallen in a 3-1 hole after dropping both games in Miami.  Still, the #1-seeded Bucks should have reason for optimism.  They had the #1 record in the league this season, and are 33-10 SU at home, with a 24-17-2 ATS record, including 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS off a straight-up loss.  Even better, the Bucks are 53-22 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 6-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite.  Finally, in match-ups between .528 (or better) teams, underdogs off back to back upset home wins have gone 2-30 SU and 5-27 ATS.  Take Milwaukee to blow out the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat Under the total.  The Bucks have their proverbial backs against the wall in this Game 5, as they will be eliminated with a loss.  We'll look for this game to go Under the total, as Milwaukee has gone UNDER in 11 straight home games when facing elimination in the Playoffs.  Additionally, NBA Playoff series have gone Under 60% since 1990 if the road team won the Series' previous two games, and scored more than 116 in each of those two wins.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Grizzlies fell, 117-111, in overtime on Monday.  And they fell behind by 2 games in this 1st Round Playoff series.  We'll lay the points with Memphis, as #2-seeded teams have gone 17-6 ATS at home when down at least two games in a Playoff series.  And the Grizz are 9-2-1 ATS when playing with double-revenge.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Under in the New York Knicks/Cleveland Cavaliers game.  As my mother used to say, 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it.'  And that maxim could apply to the Over/Unders in this series.  We played on the Unders in Games 3 + 4, and easily won as those two games went under the total by 33 and 8 points, respectively.  And Games 1 + 2 also went under the total -- each by 17.5 points.  We'll ride the under once again, as the Cavaliers have now gone under in 6 straight games, and are 47-38-1 Under for the season. And they've gone under 24-12 their last 36 meetings vs. New York, and in their last eight playoff games, overall. Additionally, the Knicks have gone Under 26-9 when leading in a playoff series.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the New York Knicks.  The Cavs did not have a good trip to the Big Apple, as they lost Games 3 + 4 to the Knicks to fall behind 3-games-to-1 in this series.  We'll take the Cavaliers to rebound on Wednesday, as they're 12-0 SU/ATS at home when priced from -3 to -12 off a loss if matched up against an opponent off a win.  Meanwhile, the Knicks are 1-9 ATS on the road vs. non-division foes off back to back losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Minnesota.  The Nuggets come into this game off a road loss in Game #4 to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  Still, they lead this series 3 games to 1, and will look to close out their division rival tonight.  Denver is 36-7 SU and 27-15-1 ATS at home this season, and have covered the spread by an average of 3.62 ppg.  Notably, against .500 (or better) teams, the Nuggets are riding a 19-2 SU and 18-3 ATS run at home!  Meanwhile, the T-Wolves are a poor 0-18 ATS their last 18 on the road vs. .500 (or better) teams following a T-Wolves cover by more than 8 points.  Lay the points with Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies to go UNDER the total.  Game 3 totaled just 212 points, and went under the total of 221.5.  And that's continued a playoff trend, as LeBron James & the Lakers have gone under 20-12 in the Playoffs since he donned the purple-and-gold. Likewise, Memphis is 9-5 under its last 14 playoff games.  Additionally, these two teams tend to play relatively low-scoring games, as 17 of the last 21 meetings have gone UNDER the total (including 12-1 Under when the O/U line was less than 225 points).  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game between these two teams.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Miami Heat.  The Bucks lost Game 3, 121-99, which puts their back against the wall in this Game 4.  The last thing Milwaukee wants to do is fall behind 3-games-to-1 in this series.  The good news for Mike Budenholzer's men is that they're 6-1 ATS their last seven when trailing in a playoff series.  And they're 17-5 ATS on the road when playing with revenge from a 15-point (or worse) defeat.  Finally, since 1990, NBA teams have cashed 76.4% after scoring less than 100 points in an upset Playoff loss, if they surrendered 115+ points in that previous game.  Take Milwaukee minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat to go UNDER the total.  The Milwaukee Bucks are the #1 overall seed in the Playoffs, but find themselves down 2-games-to-1 entering this critical Game 4.  Needless to say, a victory is of paramount importance to Milwaukee, as it surely doesn't want to fall behind by two games.  After giving up 121 points in Game 3, I expect a MUCH BETTER defensive effort by the Bucks here, in Game 4.  Indeed, road favorites off upset playoff losses have gone under 61% since 1990.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Golden State/Sacramento game.  After Game 1 went Over the total by 11.5 points, Games 2 + 3 have reversed course, and have gone significantly UNDER.  Game 2 totaled 220 points, and fell under by 18.5, while Game 3 was even LOWER scoring, as only 211 points were scored, sending it Under by a staggering 30 points.  The oddsmakers have made an adjustment for this Game 4, but not by nearly enough points.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on Sunday, as Playoff games have gone under 68.8% since 1992 when the O/U line was greater than 229 points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers to go UNDER the total.  We played on the Under in Game 3, and it easily sailed under the total, in a 99-79 New York win.  And that game was the lowest-scoring Playoff game so far this post-season.  It went under the total of 211 by 33 points, and that followed the first two games of this series that each went under by 17.5 points.  The oddsmakers have adjusted the number downward for this Game 4, but it's by not enough points, as the value still resides squarely on the Under.  The Cavaliers have now gone under in 5 straight games, and are 46-38-1 Under for the season. And they've gone under 23-12 their last 35 meetings vs. New York, and in their last seven playoff games, overall.  Even better, Cleveland has gone 30-11 Under the total following a game which totaled less than 192 points, while the Knicks have gone Under 25-9 when leading in a playoff series.  This will be a low-scoring game.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies.  We played against the Lakers in Game 2, and got the $$$ with the Grizzlies in a blowout win.  We'll switch gears for this Game 3 and take the homestanding Lakers, who are 14-6 SU/ATS off a straight-up loss since December 27.  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 10-19 SU and 8-20-1 ATS on the road vs. revenge-minded foes, including 0-12-1 ATS as an underdog!  Lay the points with the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat to go UNDER the total.  The first two games of this series were very high-scoring.  Game 1, won by Miami, totaled 247 points, while Game 2 was taken easily by Milwaukee, 138-122.  Still, the Bucks have tended to play Unders in the Playoffs, as they had gone 11-2 Under their 13 previous Playoff games entering this post-season.  Likewise, Miami had gone Under 14-6 in its 20 previous Playoff games prior to this series.  I look for Saturday's game to be relatively low-scoring, as the Under falls into 106-62-9 and 94-55 Totals systems of mine.  Additionally, the Heat are 6-1 Under their last 7 as a home dog, while Milwaukee is 9-1-1 Under as a road favorite when the O/U line was 227 or less.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The T-Wolves are down 2-games-to-none to Denver.  But the Nuggets are now on the road, where they've NOT been an elite team over the years.  Indeed, the Nuggets are a horrid 11-33 ATS on the road off back to back ATS losses, including 0-10 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back SU/ATS losses.  This season, Denver was under water away from home, with a 19-22 SU/ATS record, including 9-15 ATS as a road favorite.  The T-Wolves are 11-3 ATS their last 14 as a home underdog.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cleveland Cavaliers/New York Knicks game.  Games 1 + 2 have been extremely low-scoring.  Game 1 went to the Knicks by the score of 101-97, while Game 2 was won by Cleveland, 107-90.  The Over/Under lines were 215.5 and 214.5, so each game went under the total by a whopping 17.5 points.  The Cavaliers have now gone under in 4 straight games, and are 45-38-1 Under for the season.  And they've gone under 22-12 their last 34 meetings vs. New York, and in their last six playoff games, overall.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on Friday.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Sacramento.  We played on the Kings in Game 1, and passed Game 2.  But we will lay the points with the Warriors in this Game 3, as they're back in San Francisco.  This season, the Warriors have been dominant at home, and dreadful on the road, so it's no surprise they're down 2-games-to-0 with the first two games played in Sacramento.  But now, Golden State is back home, where it's 33-8 straight-up, and 27-13-1 ATS this season, including 10-2 ATS vs. .529 (or better) foes, and 15-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  And the Warriors are 45-23-1 ATS in the Playoffs when playing with revenge.  Take Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over the Philly 76ers.  Jacque Vaughn's men were blown out of Games 1 + 2.  But we'll grab the points with the home puppy in Game 3, as the 76ers are a woeful 12-27-1 ATS when favored by 10 or less points (or PK) on the road off back to back wins, when they've owned a win percentage of .625 (or greater).  Meanwhile, the Nets are a solid 60-29 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses, when facing a foe off a 9-point (or greater) win, if the Nets weren't favored by more than 2 points.  Brooklyn also falls into 65-38, 92-55 and 161-106 ATS systems of mine that play on certain playoff teams off blowout losses.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Miami Heat.  Milwaukee suffered a loss in Game 1, as Miami went into Fiserv Forum, and upset the Bucks, 130-117.  Trailing in a playoff series isn't unfamiliar territory for Milwaukee, so I don't expect that it will be discouraged.  Indeed, the Bucks are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS in the Playoffs when they were trailing or tied in the series.  Even better:  off an upset playoff loss, the Bucks have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS.  Meanwhile, Miami is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS off an upset playoff win.  Finally, the Bucks are a wallet-fattening 52-22-1 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 21-4 ATS when playing with rest off a home loss.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Lakers upset the Grizzlies on Sunday, 128-112, as a 5.5-point underdog, behind 29 points from Rui Hachimura, and 23 from Austin Reaves.  We'll take the Grizzlies on Wednesday to level the series at 1 game apiece, as NBA teams off playoff losses by more than 15 points that also failed to cover the spread by more than 20 in that defeat, have gone 106-76-1 ATS since 1991.  Even better:  Memphis is 8-2-1 ATS when playing with double-revenge, while the Lakers are a poor 5-24-1 ATS on the road when playing a foe they upset in the season's previous meeting.  Take the Grizzlies in Game #2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Los Angeles.  Kawhi Leonard led the Clips to victory in Game 1 with 38 points, as Los Angeles upset Phoenix, 115-110.  We'll take the Suns to bounce back on Tuesday, as they're 62-30-1 ATS when favored, and playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season.  And if it's a playoff game, then our 62-30 stat zooms to 11-1 ATS.  Lay the points with the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the New York Knicks.  New York upset the Cavaliers in Game 1, 101-97.  And that was Cleveland's 2nd straight upset defeat, overall.  We'll take the Cavs to bounce back in Game 2, as they've cashed 61.7% since 1990 off back to back upset losses, including 79% when priced as a favorite of less than 8 points.  Additionally, since 1990, favorites of less than 12 points have cashed 60% in the playoffs off back to back upset losses.  Lay the points with Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Miami.  In the pandemic-impacted 2020 season, the Bucks were the number 1 seed, but were bounced out of the playoffs by the then-No. 5 seeded Heat.  However, since that series loss, Milwaukee has dominated the Heat here, at home, as the Bucks are 7-0 straight-up, and 5-2 ATS, with an average point spread differential of 10.3 ppg.  The Bucks come into Sunday's Game 1 vs. Miami off back to back losses in what were (admittedly) meaningless games.  This game, of course, is anything but meaningless.  And we'll lay the points with Milwaukee, as it's 52-21-1 ATS at home off back to back losses.  Take the Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over the Golden State Warriors.  This season, the Kings have covered 3 of 4 vs. Golden State.  Coincidentally, these two teams met two games ago, and the Warriors won, 119-97, for their only point spread win of the season vs. Sacramento.  Notwithstanding that loss, since 2017, Sacramento is a super 18-8 ATS vs. the Warriors, including 10-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  And Golden State is a horrid 32-72 ATS off a point spread win when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Finally, I just can't get behind the Warriors on the road tonight.  For the season, the Warriors are a woeful 11-30 straight-up, and 12-28-1 ATS away from San Francisco, including 2-14-1 ATS when the point spread was less than five points.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  The Heat were upset here, at home, by Atlanta in its initial Play-in round game.  We'll take Miami to bounce back, as it's 66-34-3 ATS as a winning team when rested, and favored by 4+ points off an upset loss.  Additionally, in the Playoffs or Play-in round, the Heat are 14-0 ATS their last 14 off an upset loss when facing a sub-.700 foe which won its previous game.  Lay the points with Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over New Orleans.  This is a huge game for both teams, as it will greatly impact their seeding in the Western conference.  We'll side with the homestanding T-Wolves, as New Orleans is a wallet-breaking 8-24-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 (or more) points, including 1-13 ATS off a straight-up win.  Take the T-Wolves minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Utah Jazz.  The Lakers can finish anywhere from #6 to #8 in the Western conference, so they're incentivized to win this afternoon.  We'll lay the points with the rested Lakers, and go against an unrested Jazz team playing its 3rd game in four days.  The Jazz upset the Nuggets in Salt Lake City yesterday, as a 10-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for Utah, unrested teams have covered just 38 of 98 following an upset win as a 7-point (or greater) home underdog.  Take the Lakers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Toronto comes into this game off back to back losses to the Boston Celtics.  And it will also seek to avenge a 7-point loss to these Bucks, at Milwaukee last month.  We'll lay the points with the Raptors, as they're 124-80-5 ATS off back to back losses, including 11-6-1 ATS this season, and 14-5-1 ATS when playing with revenge vs. a division rival.  Take Toronto.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks were upset at home by the Philadelphia 76ers in their previous game, and are now a road underdog at Boston on this final day of the regular season.  We'll go against the Hawks, as road dogs have covered just 32.5% since 1990 in the final game of the season, if they were off an upset home loss.  Take the Celtics.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the Miami Heat.  The Magic may not be headed toward the post-season.  But it's been a successful season by any measure.  Orlando's 34-47 SU and 45-33-3 ATS, including 30-15-3 ATS as an underdog of +4 (or more) points.  The Magic are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 meetings vs. Miami.  Take the Magic + the points.