Sports Picks & Predictions

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Portland.  The Celtics lost their last game -- at Utah -- but G Kyrie Irving didn't play, as he attended a memorial service for his grandfather.  Irving is expected to be back in uniform tonight which, of course, is key, as Portland boasts one of the better backcourts in the NBA. This is the last game of a 5-game road trip for Boston, which has dropped three of the first four games.  But Boston has generally been terrific as road underdogs under coach Brad Stevens.  Indeed, in the regular season since 2015, Boston's 49-30 as a road underdog.  And, interestingly, it has also excelled in difficult scheduling situations under Coach Stevens, as it's 42-12 ATS as road underdogs when playing its third game in four nights since he was hired in 2013.  The Celtics also fall into one of my favorite NBA systems, which is 277-179 ATS since 1990.  Take Boston + the points.  NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings pulled off an upset win last night, when they won, 121-110, at home vs. Minnesota.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Sacramento tonight, as they'll be matched up a very well-rested Lakers team which has had the last two nights off. And unrested home teams off an upset home win are an awful 23% ATS since 1990 vs. division foes.  Moreover, LeBron James' teams have cashed 65.5% as road favorites vs. foes off home upset wins (and 84% if its foe won by 10+ points in its previous game).  Take the Lakers minus the points.  NBA Division Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the LA Clippers.  The Blazers are off to a super 8-3 start this season.  And two of their defeats were at home vs. Washington and the Lakers.  But those two games were incredibly bad situations, as Washington and the Lakers, in those road games vs. Portland, were our two strongest plays of this NBA season-to-date.  So, from my perspective, Portland's only played one bad game this season, and that was its 9-point road loss at Miami.  It's true that the Clippers are also having a solid start to the season.  But Portland rates better in both margin of victory (+3.50) and point spread differential (+1.35).  And the Clippers have underwhelmed on the road this season, with a 2-3 SU/ATS record.  And their only two road wins were against Orlando and a Houston Rockets squad which played without James Harden.  Portland's won and covered the last three meetings vs. the Clippers.  And it's also 25-5 straight-up and 22-6-2 ATS in calendar year 2018 at home in the regular season.  Take Portland.  WESTERN CONF. GAME OF THE WEEK.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Miami.  The more things change, the more they stay the same down on the Riverwalk.  Gregg Popovich's Spurs were not expected to make the Playoffs this season, much less be in the Western Conference's upper tier.  But nine games into the season finds them sitting in 4th place, with a 6-3 record.  Even their defense -- which ranked dead last earlier this season -- has improved and become more "Spurs-like."  In their four-game win streak, the Spurs gave up, on average, less than 100 ppg, and held their opponents to 45.0% FG shooting.  They then pulled a clunker in their last game, a 117-110 home loss to the Magic, primarily because they surrendered 36 points in the first quarter.  It also didn't help that the Spurs were on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  After the game, LaMarcus Aldridge commented, "We just came in and we didn’t play as good at defense as we can. We’ll get better and be better at it next game."  I think that will definitely prove to be the case, tonight.  And it certainly will help that Spurs had Monday and Tuesday off to rest.  Take San Antonio. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Charlotte.  The Hawks enter this game off an upset win over the Miami Heat.  They were a 5.5-point home dog, but won 123-118, and covered by 10.5 points.  Tonight, they'll take on another division opponent -- the Charlotte Hornets.  Charlotte also is off a big win, as it blew out Cleveland, 126-94, on Saturday.  Unfortunately for Charlotte, teams off a win by more the 30 points, that scored more than 120 points, have covered just 34% as favorites of more than 10 points against losing teams.  Additionally, the Hawks fall into one of my favorite NBA systems, which is now 300-207 ATS since 1990, including a win on Sunday on our Eastern Conference Game of the Week on the Wizards.  Take the Hawks.  NBA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over Memphis.  These two teams met eight days ago, at Memphis, in a game won by the home team, 117-96.  But the Suns' best player, Devin Booker (25.8 ppg, 6.6 assists) was injured, and didn't play.  But Booker returned to the court this past Friday, and scored 18 points in 36 minutes.  Certainly, he was a bit rusty after missing three games, but he will no doubt be better tonight.  Since defeating Phoenix, Memphis also won its next two games -- against Washington and Utah.  But Memphis' win streak is a bit deceptive, as it occurred against teams all playing very poor basketball.  The Suns are mired in a 7-game losing streak; Utah has lost its last three; and Washington has lost five in a row.  And both Utah and (as I mentioned) Phoenix were without their top scorers.  Since 1990, winning NBA teams, off 3+ wins, are a poor 71-97 ATS vs. Non-Division foes off 7+ losses.  That doesn't bode well for Memphis as a road favorite tonight.  Also, the Suns fall into 60-24 and 274-179 ATS systems of mine.  Take Phoenix.  NBA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over New York.  The Wizards are off to a 1-7 start this season, with their only win by a single point, at Portland.  But I love them tonight vs. the Knicks.  Washington has won 15 of 17 since 2013, and has gone 12-2 ATS when not favored by double-digits.  The Wizards also fall into one of my favorite NBA systems, which motivated our big play on the Lakers last night (and is 298-207 ATS since 1990).  Take Washington.  Eastern Conf. Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers + the points over Portland.  We played on the Trail Blazers when these two teams met in their season opener, and were rewarded with a win and cover by Portland.  That was also the 16th straight win by Portland in this series, which ties it for the 2nd longest active win streak by one team against another (only OKC's 18-game win streak vs. Philly is longer).  However, this win streak should come to a halt tonight, as teams that have lost 16+ games in a row to their opponent actually do quite well against the spread, with a 65.7% win rate over the last 29 seasons.  And the Lakers also fall into one of my very best NBA systems, with a 297-207 ATS record since 1990, as well as a 2nd angle (based on revenge) which is 205-128 ATS.  Take the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Charlotte.  The Cavs might be 1-7 straight-up, but they've actually been doing OK vs. the point spread, with a 4-4 record.  However, they're a perfect 3-0 ATS when getting more than 5 points.  And that's the situation tonight, at Charlotte.  Also, Cleveland was blown out, 110-91, by Denver, on Thursday.  But that 19-point loss has triggered one of my favorite NBA systems, which is 125-51 ATS since 1990.  That angle plays on certain teams to bounce back off blowout losses.  Take Cleveland + the points.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Detroit.  The Pistons come into this road game on a 3-game losing streak, and they've lost 4 of 7 to the point spread to start the season.  Meanwhile, the 76ers are 5-4 on the season.  And, interestingly, they've won all five of their home games, but lost all four of their road games.  So, it's a good thing that the Sixers will play this afternoon's game at home, today.  And dating back to last season, the 76ers are 31-4 straight-up and 25-10 ATS at home, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS vs. foes with a losing record ATS.  Take Philly minus the points.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis.  The Jazz were upset here, at home, by Memphis, 92-84, as an 11-point favorite in the season's first week.  And they also were upset by the T-wolves on Wednesday, 128-125, as a 7.5-point road favorite.  But I look for the Jazz to avenge their loss to Memphis, as teams off an upset road loss in their previous game, as a 7-point (or greater) favorite, are 15-0-1 ATS since Nov. 26, 2004 when priced from -4.5 to -13.5 points!   And the Jazz are also 102-74 ATS when priced from -3.5 to -9.5 at home, and playing with revenge from an earlier season defeat.  Lay the points with Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Sacramento.  The Kings are one of the early-season surprises in the NBA.  After Tuesday's win at Orlando, they've won their last four games, and were underdogs in each game.  Their road trip continues tonight in Atlanta, but they won't make it five straight upsets, as they've been installed in the rare (for them) role of a road favorite.  The Kings, not surprisingly, have not found much success as road favorites, as they're 26-53-2 ATS in that role since 2004, including 0-16-1 ATS their last 17 when laying less than 3 points against an opponent off a loss!  The Hawks also fall into a 236-159 ATS system of mine which plays against certain winning teams (like Sacramento).  Take Atlanta.  Perfect 10 Club Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Detroit.  These two teams met on opening night, and the Pistons handed Brooklyn a narrow 3-point defeat.  The Nets covered the 6-point spread, though, and are 4-3 ATS to start the season.  Detroit, meanwhile, has not made many friends in Las Vegas thus far, as it's just 2-4 ATS.  The Nets have lost just two games BOTH SU and ATS -- and those two games were at Indiana, and at New York.  But Brooklyn played each of those two games without rest.  Tonight, however, the Nets are well-rested, and catch the Pistons playing without rest.  Brooklyn falls into a 188-101 ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings enter this game off back to back upset wins over Memphis and Washington.  And those two games leveled their record at 3-3 this season.  But the Kings have been horrible off wins the past 2+ years, as they're 23-35 ATS, including 5-14 ATS vs. .600 (or better) opposition.  And when the Kings were off 2+ wins, then those two stats devolve to 5-11 and 0-5 ATS.  Miami has dominated this series vs. Sacramento, with a 35-14 ATS record since 1992, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if Sacramento was off back to back wins!  Take Miami.  Perfect 10 Club play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Indiana.  The Cavs will look to snap their five-game losing streak on this Saturday night.  And they'll take on division rival, Indiana, which upset San Antone in the Alamo City on Wednesday.  We'll grab the points with the home dog, as NBA underdogs of more than 3 points are 61-21 ATS since 1992 off 5+ losses, if they're playing a division opponent off an upset win.  Take Cleveland.  NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Sacramento.  In its last game, Washington was blown out, 144-122, by the Golden State Warriors.  But off that big loss, we'll lay the points with the Wizards in Sacramento on this Friday.  For technical support, consider that NBA favorites of -2.5 (or more) points have gone 45-19 ATS off a blowout loss by 15+ points, if they gave up more than 130 points in that defeat.  We actually just saw this situation present itself last Saturday, when the Houston Rockets rebounded from their 131-112 defeat to New Orleans to upend the Lakers, 124-115.  Similarly, I look for the Wizards to roll tonight over Sacramento.  Lay the points.  NBA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over New Orleans.  After shooting 53.1% and 58.9% from the field in their first two games, the Pelicans came back down to earth in their 3rd game, where they shot just 43.0% from the field.  So, it was no surprise that their offensive production went from 131 and 149 points (which they got in Games 1 + 2) to 116 points, and that their margin of victory went from 19 and 20 points to just seven points.  Of course, New Orleans' particular opponents in those games had a lot to do with their offensive field goal percentage.  In games 1 + 2, the Pelicans faced Houston and Sacramento -- teams that are allowing more than 48% of opponents' shots to be converted, and giving up 115.2 and 122.0 points, respectively.  In contrast, New Orleans' last opponent (the Clippers) is only allowing 106.7 ppg, on 41.2% FG shooting, and ranks 1st in effective FG percentage (46.2%).  Likewise, tonight's foe (Brooklyn) is only allowing 44.1% of shot attempts to be converted, and ranks 6th in effective FG percentage (48.6%), and 8th in defensive ppg (106.5).  I expect the Pelicans to once again have a more difficult time on offense, and for this game to be extremely close.  The Nets are 25-9 their last 34 as road underdogs, 17-4-1 ATS their last 22 on the road vs. a foe off an ATS win, and 41-17-2 ATS their last 60 on the road when playing with rest.  Take the points with Brooklyn. NBA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers + the points over Denver.  The Nuggets have sprinted out to a 4-0 record, including an impressive upset win, at home, over the Golden State Warriors.  Now, they'll try to go into Staples Center to defeat LeBron James & Co.  We played on Los Angeles last night and got the $$$$ in a blowout win over Phoenix.  I like LA to make it two in a row tonight, as home underdogs have gone 158-119 ATS vs. non-division foes off 4 SU/ATS wins, if such foe owned a winning SU/ATS record on the season.  Take the Lakers.  NBA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Phoenix.  The Lakers fell to 0-3 SU/ATS on Monday when they were upset in overtime, 143-142, by Gregg Popovich's Spurs.  However, it must be noted that Los Angeles' three opponents to start the season were all Western Conference playoff participants last year.  In stark contrast, their opponent tonight -- the Phoenix Suns -- were the NBA's absolute worst team last season.  That bodes well for the Lakers to break through with a win tonight.  Also, LeBron James has opened a regular season with four straight losses just once (2003), and I don't expect history to repeat itself tonight.  Indeed, in his career, his teams have gone 20-6 ATS on the road off an upset defeat, if they were matched up against a .373 (or worse) opponent in their current game. And the Suns have cashed just 13 of their last 38 at home.  Take the Lakers.  NBA Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Denver.  The Kings won their first game of this young season in impressive fashion on Sunday, as they upset the OKC Thunder, 131-120, as a 10.5-point underdog.  And that game serves as a "buy signal" for me, as NBA road underdogs of more than 9 points, off exactly one win, have cashed 60% since 1990 if they covered the point spread by 20+ points in their previous game.  With Denver in off an upset win over the Golden State Warriors, I look for a huge letdown as a double-digit favorite tonight.  Indeed, home teams have gone 5-13 ATS the last 4+ seasons after upsetting the Warriors at home in their previous game.  Take Sacramento plus the points.  NBA ELITE INFO PLAY.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards + the points over Portland.  The Trail Blazers enter this game off back to back SU/ATS wins over the Los Angeles Lakers (128-119) and San Antonio Spurs (121-108).  In contrast, Washington checks in off back to back upset losses, at home, vs. the Heat and Raptors.  But if there is a silver lining to Washington's 0-2 start, it's that it lost those two games by a combined five points.  I expect Washington to break through with an upset win tonight, as losing teams have cashed 31 of 36 on the road off a point spread defeat, if they were matched up against an .866 (or better) non-division foe off a point spread win.  Additionally, road dogs of +5 or less points have gone 101-72 ATS after back to back losses by 5 or less points.   And NBA favorites off back to back wins in which they scored 117+ points, have cashed just 38% since 1990 vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Grab the points with Washington. NBA Underdog of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Houston Rockets.  This is a horrid scheduling spot for Houston.  It played its first road game of the season last night vs. the Lakers, and now continues this early season road trip without the benefit of a day off.  Meanwhile, the Clippers had Saturday off following their blowout win over the Thunder.  For technical support, consider that, since 1990, one would have cashed 71% by playing against unrested NBA favorites on the road if they were coming off a win in their first road game of the season.  Even better:  if our road team had a win percentage of .666 (or better) the previous season, then our 71% ATS system zooms to 83% ATS since 1990.  Take the Los Angeles Clippers to blow out Houston.  NBA Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  Last night, Minnesota bested Cleveland, 131-123, while Dallas had the last two nights off following its 121-100 defeat at Phoenix on Wednesday.  I look for Rick Carlisle's men to bounce back tonight, as they're 45-21-4 ATS off a road loss, if they're playing an opponent off a win, including a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS if they lost by more than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over the Toronto Raptors.  The fans in Toronto must be giddy with excitement after the Kawhi Leonard acquisition.  In two games, he's averaging 27.5 ppg, and also 11.5 rpg.  But both of Toronto's two games this season were at home; tonight's game is on the road.  And the Raptors will also be playing without rest.  This is a horrific scheduling situation for the Raptors, as they will be playing without rest, and will also be playing their third game in four nights to start their season.  Since 1996, unrested NBA favorites have cashed just 19% when opening the season with 3 games in 4 nights, and playing a rested foe.  Take Washington.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over the Brooklyn Nets.  The Pacers were blown out by 17 points last night in Milwaukee.  But Indiana's back home tonight, and will be taking on a 1-1 Brooklyn squad that won at home last night vs. New York.  The Pacers are a super 40-14 ATS off a loss by more than 12 points, if they're matched up against a .400 (or better) foe.  And they're also 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings vs. the Nets.  Lay the points with Indy.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Golden State.  The Jazz won all three meetings vs. Golden State last season after the calendar turned on January 1.  And they won those three games by an average of 29.67 points per game, even though they were -- on average -- an underdog of 3 points in those games.  I look for the Jazz to blow out Golden State tonight, as Game 2 road favorites are a soft 37-55-2 (40%) since 1990.  Take Utah + the points.  NBA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over New Orleans.  The Pelicans upset Houston, which was the team with the league's best record last season (65-17).  Let's fade New Orleans at home on Friday, as NBA teams have cashed just 26.3% since 1990 as favorites off an upset win over an opponent which owned a .500 (or better) record the previous season.  Take Sacramento + the points.  NBA Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Orlando.  The Hornets lost at home, on Wednesday, by a single point to the Milwaukee Bucks.  Meanwhile, Orlando upset the Miami Heat, 104-101, as a 2.5-point home dog.  We'll play against Orlando, as underdogs that opened the season with an upset win have covered just 20% of their Game 2s since 1990 when matched up against an opponent off a loss.  Take Charlotte. NBA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the LA Lakers.  To say the Blazers have dominated the Lakers would be an understatement.  Since April 2014, Portland has won ALL 15 meetings, and has covered the point spread in 13 of the 15 games.  Admittedly, this is a different Lakers team, with LeBron James being the featured player.  But Portland has won and covered its last four home meetings vs. LeBron James, so I'm not dissuaded from taking the Blazers.  Even better:  Portland has a second streak at play tonight, which is more impressive than its 15-0 record vs. the Lakers.  And that's Portland's record in its home openers.  It's the longest win streak in NBA history, and currently sits at 17 games (14-3 ATS).  Lay the points with the Trail Blazers.  NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Golden State.  It's deja vu all over again, as the Warriors once again have a 3-games-to-none stranglehold on the series.  However, the Cavs blew out the Warriors, 137-116, in Game 4 last season, and I expect another strong effort on Friday night.  Indeed, NBA teams have cashed 64.2% over the past 28 years in the NBA Finals off a pointspread defeat if they trail 2-0 or 3-0 in the series.  Even better:  LeBron James' teams have gone 47-27 ATS at home in the Playoffs provided they weren't leading in the series.  Take Cleveland + the points.  NBA Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Under.  Analysis to follow.

At 8:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors won Game 1, 124-114, in overtime, to take a 1-0 series lead.  Off that loss, we'll grab the points with Cleveland, as .610 (or better) NBA teams are 61-42 ATS as underdogs when down 1 game to none in a Playoff series.  And LeBron James' teams have gone 23-15 ATS on the road in the Playoffs off a SU loss.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Cleveland.  The Western Conference has been dominant vs. the East, as its teams have now had home court advantage in the NBA Finals for 18 of the last 21 years!  In the previous 20 seasons, over those 17 NBA Finals openers where it owned home court advantage in the finals, the Western Conference has won Game 1 all but two seasons (2001, 2004), and has gone 13-4 ATS.  Even worse for LeBron James & Co., the Western Conference has now won and covered 10 STRAIGHT TIMES (since 2005) in Game 1 when it owned home court advantage in the Finals!  And LeBron James teams accounted for six of those 10 defeats.  I look for Golden State to blow out Cleveland, as it's 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams, with those seven wins by an average of 15.28 ppg.  Moreover, Golden State has gone 15-1 SU and 10-6 ATS in the opening game of its last 16 Playoff series, and it also falls into 90-49 and 32-10 ATS Playoff Systems of mine, that take certain teams in Game 1, based on various team statistics.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Golden State.  This will be the fourth Game 7 of this year's NBA Playoffs.  The home team has won two of the first three, with Boston, last night, being the sole loser.  Dating back to 1991, the home teams have gone 55-16 straight-up and 41-28-2 ATS in the 71 Game 7s.  Interestingly, this will be just the 2nd time a home team has been an underdog in a Game 7 since 1991, and the other time was also with this Houston Rockets squad, back in 2015, when they were a 2.5-point dog to the Clippers.  Houston pulled the upset in that game, and I wouldn't be surprised if it shocked the world, here, tonight -- especially since they were blown out by 29 on Saturday.  Indeed, since 1991, underdogs have cashed 89% of the time off a loss in the semi-finals or finals by 22+ points, if they didn't trail in the series.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Under.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in Game 6 between Golden State and Houston.  We have won each of the first five games of this series, including a play on the Under in Game 5.  That game went Under by a whopping 28 points, as Houston won, 98-94, to take a 3-2 series lead.  The bad news for the Rockets is that PG Chris Paul (24.39 PER this season) suffered an injury, so he won't play tonight.  This season, Paul missed 24 games.  And while the Rockets were 15-9 straight-up in those games, they were 9-15 ATS, including 0-4 SU/ATS as an underdog.  Even worse, the Rockets averaged just 107.7 ppg without Paul in the line-up (compared to 112.7 ppg with him on the court).  Certainly, his 18.6 points, 7.9 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game were missed.  Not surprisingly, the Rockets have gone 15-9 Under the total without Paul in the line-up this season, including 9-2 Under on the Road, and 8-0 Under when not favored by more than 5 points!  I look for a relatively low-scoring game tonight.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Cleveland/Boston game, as it falls into an 82-42 Totals system of mine.  These two teams have played four of their first five games in this year's Playoffs Under the total.  And that has continued a long-term trend in this series, as 18 of the last 27 games have gone Under.  Additionally, Boston's 17-6 Under on the road in the Playoffs.  And teams, like Cleveland, that scored less than 85 points in their previous game, and now trail in a Playoff series, and face elimination, have gone Under the total 58.41% the past 25 years.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State/Houston game to go 'under' the total.  This series has seen three of its first four games go 'under' the total.  And Game 4 went under by a whopping 40 points.  I look for this trend to continue on Thursday, as the 'under' falls into an 195-139 totals system of mine.  Additionally, Playoff games have gone 'under' the total 68.1% of the time the past 25 years if the previous playoff game went 'under' by more than 36 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  It's well-chronicled that the Boston Celtics have yet to lose a playoff game at home this season (they're 9-0 -- both straight-up and against the spread).  That's one reason to favor the Celtics in Game 5, tonight.  Another is that Boston has been the much superior team against the point spread this season.  Boston's covered 63.5%, while Cleveland's cashed just 39.5%.  That's a whopping 24 percent difference.  And in the Playoffs, home teams that have covered more than 17.1% of the time than their opponents have cashed a staggering 82.35% since 1991!  Take Boston in Game 5.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Golden State.  The Rockets owned the best record in the league this season.  But all of that success went out the window in Game 3 when they lost by 41 points.  I love Houston to bounce back on Tuesday, as .667 (or better) teams are a perfect 17-0 ATS as road underdogs, priced from +7 to +13 points, in Games 2, 3 or 4 of a Playoff series, if they trail by 1 or 2 games in the series.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Cleveland.  The Celts were bombed by 30 points by Cleveland on Saturday.  Unfortunately for LeBron James & Co., favorites off a playoff blowout win by more than 21 points generally fail to cover the spread in their next playoff game vs. that embarrassed opponent, and especially if they trail in the series.  Since 1991, such teams have covered just 24.2% of the time, including 0-8 ATS in the last two rounds of the Playoffs.  Cleveland is a poor 22-50-1 ATS this season as a favorite, including 1-11 ATS vs. foes off a loss by 14+ points.  The Celtics, meanwhile, are 61-34-2 ATS on the season, including 10-1-1 ATS when they lost their previous game by double-digits.  And they're 16-4 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. .600 (or better) foes.  Take Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors.  Analysis to follow.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavs.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Boston Celtics.  The Cavs were blown out by 25 to start this series.  But I love Cleveland to bounce back on Tuesday, as .610 (or better) teams have cashed 35 of 50 playoff games off a road defeat by more than 21 points.  And LeBron James' teams have gone 10-6 SU/ATS in the playoffs when down 1-0 in a series.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Houston.  The Rockets' win percentage (including playoff games) is substantially higher (.793 vs. .717) than the Warriors' win percentage, and Houston also enjoys home court advantage.  Yet Houston's not being given much respect in Vegas, as it's favored by a very short price.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the "better" team in Game 1 laying a very short price, but consider that NBA teams that owned a much better (at least .060) win percentage have covered just 26% of their Game 1s since 1991 when not favored by more than four points!  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Houston.  The Rockets took a 3-1 series lead with a sweep of the Jazz in Salt Lake City.  The series returns to the Toyota Center tonight, where the Rockets will look to eliminate the Jazz.  Unfortunately for Houston, it's been installed as a huge favorite.  And home favorites of 12+ points off a win in the playoffs are a poor 13-34 ATS if they're not trailing in the series.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm (please note the early start), our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics to go 'under' the total.  We played on the under in Saturday's Game 3, and easily got the $$$, even though the game did go into overtime.  One of the reasons we played on that Game 3 to go 'under' was that the Celtics have been a strong 'under' team on the road (now 37-26-4 'under') and especially in the playoffs (now 15-5 'under' their last 20 road playoff games).   Boston won that Game 3, as a 9.5-point underdog, and now leads this series 3 games to none.  And that leads us to another reason why I love tonight's game to go 'under.'  In the NBA playoffs, teams (like Philly) trailing in a series, and facing elimination have gone 'under' the total much more often than not over the past 28 years.  This season, we've seen 7 of 10 such elimination games go 'under' the total, and I look for that trend to continue tonight.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over New Orleans.  The Pelicans blew out the Warriors, 119-100, on Friday to cut the series deficit to one game heading into this Game 4.  Unfortunately for the Pelicans, the Warriors are at their very best off a straight-up loss when playing an opponent off a win.  Dating back to 2011, Golden State is 75-38-1 ATS in this situation, including 15-8 ATS in the Playoffs, and 9-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 points vs. a .580 (or better) foe.  Take the Warriors.  NBA ELITE INFO WINNER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavs Under the total.  The Raptors were upset at home, 128-110, by the Cavaliers on Thursday.  Teams off home upset losses in the Playoffs tend to bounce back with better defensive games on the road the next time out, and such games have gone 'Under' the total 58% since 1991.  The Under also falls into a 97-55 Totals system of mine.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Cleveland.  The Raptors were blown out, 128-110 in Game 2, and certainly didn't expect to be down 2 games to none in this series after compiling the best record in the Eastern Conference.  We'll grab the points with Toronto as NBA playoff teams with a superior win percentage have cashed 79.16% since 1991 off back-to-back playoff losses, if they lost their previous game by 15+ points.  Take Toronto.  NBA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Boston.  The Sixers are down 2 games to none in this series, and have been installed as a big favorite today.  That bodes well for them, as teams down exactly two games in a series have cashed 71.05% at home in the first three rounds of the playoffs since 1991 when favored by more than 4 points.  Lay it.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Philly/Boston game.  The Celtics are 36-26-4 Under the total on the road their last 66 games, and are 14-5 Under their last 19 Playoff games.  The Under also falls into an 86-48 Totals system of mine.  Take the Under.

At 10:35 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Utah.  The Jazz stunned the #1-seeded Rockets on Wednesday, with a 116-108 victory at the Toyota Center.  Unfortunately for the Jazz, NBA home teams are an awful 6-17 ATS in Game 3 of the quarterfinals, if they're off an upset win and the series is tied at 1-game apiece.  Even worse:  if their win percentage is .640 or worse, then they're a dismal 1-10 ATS.  Take Houston in Game 3.  Western Conference Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the 'under' in the Golden State/New Orleans game.  The Warriors scored more than 120 points in each of the first two games of this series.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game on Friday in Game 3.  But consider that NBA Playoff games have gone 'under' the total 63.2% since 1992 in games where one (or both) of the teams had scored more than 116 points in each of its two previous Playoff games in that season.  Take the Warriors/Pelicans 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.