Sports Picks & Predictions

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Denver.  These Northwest division rivals met last week, and the Nuggets upset Utah, 106-100, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  In that game, Utah was unrested, as it played at San Antonio the night before, while Denver was rested.  The tables are turned for this game, as Utah has not played since Saturday, while Denver hosted Portland last night.  We'll lay the lumber with Utah, as the Jazz are 104-71 ATS when rested, and matched-up against an unrested foe off a win.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Toronto.  The Raptors have won 11 straight games.  But 9 of the 11 wins were against teams that won't be going to the Playoffs.  Their only two impressive wins in this stretch were against the OKC Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers.  Tonight, the Raptors will play the first of back-to-back games against the Pacers, with the re-match on Friday in Indianapolis.  We'll grab the points with the Pacers, who come into this game off back to back home upset losses to New York and Dallas.  And Indiana is a super 69% on the road since 1990 off back to back upset losses when playing a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Take Indiana.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Detroit Pistons.  The Suns have dropped three straight games (both SU and ATS).  But those three games were all against foes with a better W/L record.  Tonight, the Suns will get a relative breather when they face the 18-34 Pistons.  Phoenix is a super 59-37-3 ATS when favored on the road vs. a foe with a worse W/L record, including 21-6-2 ATS if the Suns are off a SU/ATS loss, while Detroit is 5-14 ATS as a home dog vs. a foe with a better W/L record.  Phoenix also falls into 144-84 and 100-54 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off back to back losses.  Take the Suns.

At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Denver.  The Nuggets earned an impressive, 127-115, win at Milwaukee on Friday to snap the Bucks' 9-game win streak.  That was Denver's 2nd straight upset win (it also upset Utah on Thursday).  But off those two big wins, we will fade the Nuggets in Detroit this afternoon.  The Nuggets are a horrible 29-55 ATS on the road off a point spread win, including 5-23 ATS as a favorite.  And NBA teams have covered just 35.5% since 1993 off a double-digit upset win over a .740 (or better) foe, if they were a double-digit underdog in that upset win.  Take Detroit + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Denver.  The Rockets collapsed two nights ago, as they were outscored by 21 points in the 4th quarter to lose to OKC by five, 112-107.  We'll take the Rockets to rebound off that loss, as they'll benefit by facing an injury-riddled Nuggets squad tonight.  Starters Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray all are sidelined for Denver.  And it's not as if Denver's had much success vs. Houston even when fully healthy.  Indeed, Houston's now won seven straight home games vs. Denver (5-2 ATS), and is 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 games, overall.  Lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At  7:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Lakers minus the points over New York.  The Lakers had their worst defeat of the season when they fell to Boston, 139-107, on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.  We'll lay the points tonight with L.A., as the Lakers are 107-78 ATS on the road in non-division games vs. losing teams off a point spread win.  And LeBron James' teams have gone 74% ATS in his career as a road favorite of -6+ points off an upset loss.  Take the Lakers.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over Detroit.  The Kings have lost five straight games after falling in overtime at Miami on Monday.  But they're an awesome 19-4 ATS on the road off a road loss, if they're off back to back losses, overall.  Take Sacramento.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Indiana.  We played on the Jazz two nights ago, and easily got the $$$ when they blew out Sacramento, 123-101.  Meanwhile, the Pacers won in Denver vs. the Nuggets last night for their fifth straight win.  We'll come right back with Utah on Monday, as it seeks revenge from a 19-point loss in Indianapolis earlier this season.   And the Jazz fall my best revenge system, which is 78-19 ATS since 1990.  Even better:  Utah's 16-2 SU its last 18, and 11-2 ATS its last 13.  Finally, Utah is an awesome 67-35 ATS when rested, and playing an unrested foe off back-to-back wins.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Oklahoma City.  These two teams met 11 days ago in Oklahoma, and the Thunder came away with a 113-92 victory, as a 3-point home underdog.  We'll take the Rockets in this re-match, as they're 24-13 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 11-1 ATS if they failed to cover the spread by more than 18 points in that defeat.  Houston also falls into a 197-128 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Rockets.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Charlotte.  The Magic stumbled badly in their last two games -- at the Clippers and at the Warriors -- as they lost by 27 and 14 points, respectively.  But Orlando had covered seven of eight prior to those two games.  The loss at Golden State was particularly embarrassing, as the Warriors were on a 10-game losing streak entering that game.  But teams off upset losses to foes on long losing streaks tend to bounce back in their next game, and the Magic fall into a 60.8% ATS system of mine which plays on such teams.  Orlando's 14-6 ATS as a road favorite of less than 6 points, while Charlotte's an awful 20-36-2 ATS off a loss by 7 or more points.  Take the Magic.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Sacramento.  The Jazz are one of the league's hottest teams, with 15 wins in their last 17 games (11-4-2 ATS), though they did lose their most recent game this past Thursday, at New Orleans.  In contrast, the Kings are mired in a 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS stretch.  But Utah's an awesome 32-6 SU and 27-10-1 ATS at home when both it, and its foe were off losses (including 15-1-1 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -10 points).  And it also falls into a 73% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off SU/ATS losses.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs came back from an 18-point deficit to stun the Raptors on Sunday, 105-104.  San Antonio was a 5-point underdog in that game.  However, the Spurs are still a horrible 4-42 straight-up, and 19-26-1 ATS when installed as a road underdog of +4 or more points.  Meanwhile, the Heat are 44-17-2 ATS off back to back losses when playing an opponent off a SU win.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the LA Clippers.  The Clippers finished their 4-game home stand with back-to-back wins over the Knicks and Warriors, but they failed to cover the spread in each game.  Los Angeles will now travel to the Pepsi Center to play a Nuggets team which surely will be in an ornery mood following its upset loss yesterday.  And perhaps the Nuggets were looking ahead to this match-up vs. the Clippers when they played the Cavaliers last night.  Because, clearly, Denver didn't show up.  The Nuggets were favored by 12.5 points, but lost, 111-103, to the woeful Cavs.  And that's continued a trend this season where the Nuggets have lost to many of the league's worst clubs (e.g., Kings, Hawks, Pelicans (twice), Wizards).  Denver, typically, has bounced back from such embarrassing losses, as they've gone 6-0 the past two years after losing to a team with a win percentage below .300.  Also, some good news for Denver, tonight is that the Clippers' Paul George won't suit up due to a hamstring injury.  Even better:  the Nuggets have won and covered nine of the last 12 meetings here vs. the Clippers, including 21 and 27-point victories last season.  Finally, the Clippers are an awful 3-23 straight-up, and 4-22 ATS as a single-digit underdog (or PK) in non-division games, if the Clippers won their previous game, straight-up.  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Philadelphia.  We played on Boston last night vs. San Antonio, and were on the wrong side of that game, as the Spurs blew out the Celtics, 129-114.  But off that loss, I look for Brad Stevens' men to rebound tonight against their division rival.  And Boston will catch a break, as Sixers big man, Joel Embiid, will be sidelined for tonight's game (and the foreseeable future) with a dislocated finger.  In Embiid's stead, tonight, will be veteran power forward Al Horford, who played the last three seasons in Boston.  Unfortunately for Philadelphia, Horford's best days are now behind him, as he's shooting a career-worst 45% from the field.  And, yes, it's true that this will be Boston's 5th game in seven nights.  But since Stevens assumed the coaching duties in 2013, the Celtics are a jaw-dropping 14-0 ATS as a road underdog when playing their fifth game in seven nights.  Additionally, the Celtics are 16-6 ATS under Stevens in the regular season when playing with double-revenge.  Take Boston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Houston.  Brett Brown's Sixers were blown out by the Pacers on Tuesday, 115-97.  And that was Philly's 3rd straight loss, overall -- all on the road.  But I look for the 76ers to bounce back in the underdog role tonight, at Houston, as NBA road teams have gone 281-228 ATS in the regular season off a double-digit SU/ATS loss, if they weren't getting more than 6 points, and their opponent was off a straight-up win, including 42-14 ATS vs. .625 (or better) non-division foes.  Even better:  rested NBA road teams have gone 179-122 ATS in the regular season off 3 straight road losses, if now playing a winning opponent.  Take the 76ers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Golden State.  Last night, the Mavs upset Phoenix here, at home, 105-96.  But off that win, we'll fade the Warriors, as unrested home underdogs off an upset win at home the previous day, have cashed just 21.7% vs. rested opponents since 1990.  Take the Mavericks to blow out Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Golden State.  The Warriors enter today on a rare 2-game win streak (their first win streak of the season).  But the Warriors have not performed well off a win, as they're 11-28-1 ATS their last 40, including 0-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs.  And, speaking of double-digit underdogs...they're a miserable 25.3% ATS at home off a home win since 1990, provided their win percentage was less than .400.  Take Houston minus the points.  NBA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors over New Orleans.  The Pelicans come into this game off a win over Minnesota.  But the Timberwolves have now lost eight games in a row.  And the Pelicans had lost 13 in a row before Wednesday's win.  But it wasn't just that New Orleans had lost 13 straight -- it also was 0-9-1 ATS in its 10 previous games.  With that as a backdrop, it's tough to make an argument for laying points on the road with New Orleans -- even against a team like Golden State which has lost its last five games.  But the Warriors have been competitive this year, and have played hard, even if they haven't won games.  Indeed, the Warriors are 12-11 ATS off a loss this season.  And that compares favorably to New Orleans' 35.7% ATS record this season, which is the 2nd-worst of the 30 NBA teams.  Golden State is a terrific 38-18 ATS at home off a loss when matched-up against foes off a win, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced from -3 to +2 points.  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs defeated the Houston Rockets in double-overtime earlier this month, 135-133, behind 28 points from Lonnie Walker IV.  That game -- one in which Houston held a 22-point, 3rd quarter lead -- was made even more frustrating because the referees blew a call on a 4th quarter James Harden dunk, which was erroneously ruled as an invalid basket.  The Rockets protested the loss afterward, but did the league denied the Rockets' appeal.  Tonight, Houston will have an opportunity to avenge that loss.  And the Spurs likely will be without their star from that game, as Walker has been sidelined with a bruised knee.  San Antonio is a dreadful 4-38 straight-up, and 12-29-1 ATS as an underdog of +4 (or more) points vs. Western Conference rivals.  Even better:  it's 0-9 ATS this season off a straight-up win (and 3-16 ATS since March 20 off a win).  Meanwhile, the Rockets are 13-2 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they were favored by 3+ points.  Lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over New York.  Sacramento's first road win of this season was against these Knicks back on November 3, when it blew them out, 113-92.  That was the 4th straight win by the Kings in this series.  And it continued a long-term run of success vs. the Eastern Conference, as Sacramento's 40-14-2 ATS its last 56 vs. the East.  So, we'll back them tonight at home vs. a Knicks team off a rare win.  New York upset Golden State on Wednesday, 124-122, as a 4.5-point road underdog.  That win snapped its 10-game losing streak, and earned interim coach Mike Miller his first win.  Still, New York's yet to win back-to-back games this season (0-4 SU; 1-3 ATS), and is 25-38-1 ATS off a win, including 8-20-1 ATS vs. a foe off a point spread loss.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Chicago.  We played on Toronto yesterday, but lost when they fell to defeat for the 3rd straight game.  But we will get right back on the Raptors, as .562 (or better) NBA teams have cashed 66.3% ATS in the regular season since 1990 off 3 or more losses, if they were favored by more than 2 points on the road.  Additionally, the Raptors have won the last 10 games in this series, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS here in Chicago.  Lay the points.  NBA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over New York.  This is a big revenge game for the Mavericks, who lost at home to New York last Friday, 106-102, as an 11-point favorite.  Since that game, the Mavs have gone 1-1, including a loss at Boston on Monday.  But I love Dallas to rebound tonight, as it's 20-8 ATS on the road off a loss, including 5-0 ATS as a favorite.  And it's 24-12 ATS its last 36 as a road favorite off a defeat.  Meanwhile, New York is an awful 17-39-2 ATS at home when not favored by more than 3 points.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs to go 'over' the total.  Trae Young (26.8 ppg) has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all I needed to pull the trigger on this game to go 'over' the total.  San Antonio is running a lot more this season, now that Dejounte Murray is healthy again (after missing last season).  Murray was one of the lone bright spots for the Spurs in their loss to the Lakers on Sunday, as he totaled 18 points, 11 rebounds and four assists in 24 minutes.  And one can see what his presence in the line-up this year has done for the team's offensive strategy, as a whole.  This season, the Spurs rank #1 in fastbreak points per game (19.8), compared to ranking #30 last season (10.3 ppg).  And their pace of play has jumped from #22 to #11.  It's true that Murray is on a minutes restriction (24) and won't play on back-to-back nights for the first part of this season.  But that's not a problem in this game, since the Spurs are rested, and don't play again until Thursday.  So, he'll be on the floor.  I look for a relatively-high scoring game tonight.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz 'over' the total.  These two teams met just four days ago, and the Jazz held the Clippers to just 96 points, in a 110-96 win.  That was the only time this season that Los Angeles failed to score more than 100 points.  Of course, it also must be noted that Kawhi Leonard (and his 29.2 points per game) were in street clothes for that game.  In the five games that Leonard has been on the court, the Clippers have averaged 117.8 points per game.  The over/under for the first meeting was 216.5 points, and this number opened much lower, despite the fact that Leonard will play.  I believe it's an over-reaction to the result of the first meeting, as well as to the fact that both teams have gone 'under' the total by more than 10 points in each of their three previous games.  That's certainly not a common situation.  But it happened last season when Detroit and Philadelphia met on December 7.  The 76ers had gone 'under' the total by 14, 13.5 and 13 points in their three previous games, while the Pistons had gone 'under' by 19, 24.5 and 15.5 points in their three previous games.  But the two teams combined for 228 points, and sailed 'over' the total.  The Clippers have gone 'over' the total in 13 of their last 15 games when favored, and playing with revenge.  And the 15 games also averaged 232.4 ppg.  This game will be very high-scoring.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the 'OVER' in the Atlanta/Miami game.  These two teams played a few nights back, and the Heat won that game, 112-97.  The over/under line in that game was 224.5, so tonight's number is significantly less than what was offered for that game.  Admittedly, Atlanta guard Trae Young will be out tonight, but this over/under line is somewhat of an over-reaction.  The Hawks have gone 'over' the total in 39 of 59 home games off a loss, including 12-4 'over' vs. division rivals.  Also, the 'over' falls into a system of mine which has cashed 60.4% since 1990.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Detroit.  Tonight, the Pistons will play the 3rd game of a 3-game home stand.  And they'll try to snap their 2-game SU/ATS losing streak, as they fell here, at home, vs. Atlanta and Philadelphia to start the home stand.  This is a revenge game for Indiana, which lost on Opening Night, at home, to these Pistons.  Overall, the Pacers are 0-2 on the young season, as they also lost to Cleveland, 110-99, on Saturday.  We'll lay the points with Indiana, as it's 123-83-4 ATS as a favorite off a loss, when playing with revenge, including 43-22-1 ATS vs. division rivals -- and, then, 6-1 ATS as a road favorite vs. division rivals.  Meanwhile, Detroit is a horrid 10-25 ATS at home off a point spread defeat, including 0-6 ATS its last six.  Finally, the Pacers fall into 70-28 and 127-56 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off losses.  Lay the points with Indy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Utah.  The Jazz have been installed as a road underdog at Los Angeles.  Unfortunately, they've covered just 49 of 135 in the regular season when priced as an underdog from +3 to +8.5 points against a rested foe.  The Lakers, meanwhile, stumbled in their season opener on Tuesday, as they were upset by the rival Clippers.  But home favorites have cashed 71% since 1991 off an upset loss on the road to start the season.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over the L.A. Clippers.  Kawhi Leonard & Co. opened the 2019-20 season with an upset win at home over the Lakers.  But off that emotional win, we'll step in and go against the Clippers as a road favorite vs. the defending Western Conference champs.  Since 1991, teams that lost the NBA Finals the previous season have opened up the next year by going 18-10 ATS in Game 1.  Also, the Warriors have dominated at home vs. foes off a win, as they're 53-32 ATS their last 85.  Finally, NBA teams have cashed 61.9% as underdogs in their home opener over the past 29 years, provided they were not a losing team the previous season.  Grab the points with Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Certainly, this will be a tough game for the Nuggets to win.  After all, Portland has won its last 18 home openers.  But I'm still going to take Denver in an underdog role, as it no doubt would love to avenge its playoffs ouster by the Blazers last May.  That Western Conference semi-finals series went 7 games, and the Nuggets lost Games 6 + 7 to fall to Portland.  However, Denver falls into a super 81.08% revenge system of mine.  Additionally, the Nuggets are a solid 28-16 ATS when playing with double-revenge, including 14-6 ATS on the road, and they're 13-4 ATS their last 17 as an underdog vs. a division rival.  Meanwhile, Portland's a poor 4-9 ATS at home vs. foes playing with double-revenge.  Finally, underdogs have cashed 60% since 1991 in their season opener, if they were playing a division foe, and were a .500 (or better) team the previous season.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Golden State.  This has been an underdog-oriented series this season.  The underdog has covered four of the five Playoff games, and six of the seven meetings this season, if one includes the regular season.  The Raptors are one game away from winning their first NBA Title, and if history is any indication, they'll get the job done tonight.  Indeed, NBA road teams up 3-games-to-2 in a Playoff series have done very well over the last 29 years, as they've cashed 59%, including 78% in the NBA Finals.  That bodes very well for Toronto this evening.  As does the fact that NBA teams (like Toronto) with a better margin of victory have covered 72.2% of NBA Finals games off a straight-up loss, if they weren't favored by 5+ points.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Golden State game 'under' the total.  These two teams went under the total in Game 5.  But the only reason it was close to the number was due to the opening quarter.  The two teams combined for 62 points in the 1Q, and 73 points in the first 14 minutes, 14 seconds.  But, of course, Kevin Durant was on the floor for much of that time period.  Thus, following the Durant injury, the two teams combined for 138 points over the final 33 minutes, 46 seconds, which extrapolates to 196.16 if that rate of scoring would apply for the full 48 minutes.  And that lines up almost perfectly with Game 4, which had a final score of 105-92.  The 'under' also falls into 139-92 and 85-45 Totals systems of mine.  This will be a very low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors over Toronto.  After dropping the the last two games, the defending champs find themselves down 3-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against a team in such a predicament.  But teams down 3-games-to-1 in a 7-game series have actually been very good against the point spread over the years, including 61-39 ATS if they were not getting 9+ points.  That bodes well for the Warriors tonight.  As does the fact that Golden State has been super as a road underdog off a straight-up loss, when matched up against an opponent off a win.  Since December 20, 2011, it is 31-7 ATS, including perfect 6-0 when playing with double-revenge from two losses earlier in the season.  Finally, teams (like Toronto) off back-to-back upset wins on the road have covered just 34.7% since 1990 vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .650, including 9-30 ATS if they covered the spread by more than 11 points in each of those two upset wins.  With their backs against the wall, we'll grab the points with the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Toronto.  We played on the Raptors in Game 3, and got the $$$ with a 123-109 upset win.  However, I look for the Warriors to bounce back tonight.  Indeed, Golden State is a virtually-perfect 12-1 ATS when trailing in a Playoff series, if the Warriors owned a .600 (or better) win percentage (including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS at home).  And they're a terrific 37-18 ATS as a home favorite off a loss when playing an opponent off a win.  With Klay Thompson back on the court tonight, the Warriors will get a player who is huge for both their offensive and their defensive game plans.  And that's all I need to pull the trigger on Steve Kerr's troops.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Golden State.  The Raptors have won three of the four meetings vs. Golden State this season, with an average margin of victory at +6.50, and an average point spread differential of +5.12.  We'll grab the points with the Raptors, as they're 13-4 ATS as an underdog vs. .625 (or better) opposition.  Meanwhile, the Warriors have covered just 2 of their last 10 Playoff games off an upset win over their current opponent, including 0-6 ATS vs. .685 (or better) foes!  Finally, home favorites have covered just 23% in the NBA Finals off an upset win over their opponent.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Toronto.  For a myriad of reasons, this was always going to be Golden State's most difficult NBA Finals in the Steve Kerr Era.  For starters, it's the first time his troops have not had home court advantage in a Finals series.  And, of course, it's also the first time his team has had to deal with significant injuries -- not to mention having to face an opponent (unlike Cleveland) which can play lights-out defense.  With its back against the wall in this Game 2, I expect the Warriors to compete with the mettle of a 3-time Champion.  For technical support, consider that .618 (or better) NBA teams have cashed 63.3% since 1991 as road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss in Game 1, including 69% in the NBA Finals.  And the Warriors are an awesome 28-5 ATS as a road underdog of +2 (or more) points off a loss, if their foe is off a win, including 14-1 ATS if their foe is off back-to-back wins!  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Toronto.  The Warriors have dominated in Game 1 of a Playoff series.  Dating back to 1994, they're 20-5 straight-up, and 16-8-1 ATS, including a perfect 6-0-1 ATS on the road, and 19-1 straight-up and 12-8 ATS since 2014.  It's true that Toronto won the two regular season meetings.  But the Warriors are 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS when playing with double-revenge, including 7-0 ATS when priced from -3 to +7.5 points.  Golden State is also 5-0-1 ATS on the road in the Playoffs when playing with double-revenge.  Finally, NBA home favorites (or PK) off a SU/ATS win are an awful 65-90 ATS vs. .693 (or better) foes.  Take the Warriors in Game 1.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Toronto.  We played on Milwaukee in Game 5.  Unfortunately, Toronto upset the Bucks, 104-99, to take a 3-2 series lead.  That was the first time this entire season that Milwaukee lost for the third straight time.  Still, the Bucks are 47-25 ATS as an underdog off back to back losses.  And they're 32-17 ATS off 3+ losses.  Many bettors will find it difficult to back a team off 3 straight Playoff defeats.  But since 1994, NBA underdogs off an upset loss, and 3 straight Playoff losses overall, have actually cashed 59%.  We'll grab the points with Mike Budenholzer's crew in this 'must-win' game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the 'under' in the Game 6 between Toronto and Milwaukee.  The two teams combined for just 204 points in Game 5, which was the lowest aggregate total yet for the two teams in this Playoff series.  And Game 5 was a full 18 points less than Game 4.  As such, Game 5 went 'under' the total by 11.5 points!  I look for another low-scoring game on Saturday night, as #1-seeded teams, off an upset home loss, and now facing elimination on the road, have gone 'under' the total 78% since 1990.  Even better:  NBA Finals and Conference Finals games have gone 'under' the total 61.7% of the time if the two teams combined to go 'under' the total in their previous game by at least 8 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Toronto.  The Bucks and Raptors have traded two victories on their respective home courts, which bodes well for the Bucks on Thursday since they'll be back home.  And, dating back to Giannis Antetokounmpo's rookie season, the Bucks are an exceptionally strong 40-13-1 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 100% Perfect, 9-0 ATS, off an upset loss.  This season, Milwaukee not only owned the league's best record (60-22), but it also owned the league's best point spread record (47-31-4 ATS).  In the Playoffs, Milwaukee has continued to win -- both straight-up (10-3) and ATS (10-3).  Thus, it is now 57-34-4, 62.6% ATS on the season.  In contrast, Toronto has burned money this season, with an ATS win percentage of just 47.4%.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors are up 3-games-to-none in this seven-game series, so they definitely have Portland on the ropes.  But we'll fade Golden State tonight, as #1-seeded teams are a dreadful 0-9 ATS off a SU/ATS win, if they're going for a sweep in a Playoff series, and priced from PK to -7.5 points.  Even better:  since 1990, the Trail Blazers are an awesome 90-52-2 ATS as home underdogs of less than 5 points, including 8-3 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Portland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Milwaukee.  After covering the spread for all but the final 29 seconds in Game 1, the Raptors only covered the 6.5-point spread for 4 minutes and 11 seconds in Game 2, and were absolutely annihilated, 125-103.  The good news for the Raptors is that this series now shifts to Toronto for Games 3 + 4.  And they're 10-3 ATS their last 13 games off 3+ point spread defeats.  Moreover, since 1991, NBA teams, seeded #5 or better, are 67-42 ATS off a road playoff loss by more than 21 points.  But that's not the best part.  If our team's win percentage is .640 (or better), and it lost its last two games, then our 67-42 stat zooms to 11-1, 92% ATS, since 2002.  The Bucks last 3 games (all wins), were all at home.  Unfortunately for Milwaukee, it's covered just eight out of its last 33 games off 3 home wins.  Take Toronto minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Milwaukee.  The Raptors fell by eight points in Game 1, as a 6.5-point underdog.  And the worst part of the game for Toronto backers was that they covered the point spread for all but the final 29 seconds of the game.  Tonight, we'll grab the points with Kawhi Leonard & Co., as I look for Toronto to even up the series at 1 game apiece.  Indeed, over the last 29 years, .663 (or better) teams off exactly one loss, and down exactly one game in a Playoff series, have cashed 66.3% when not favored by 3+ points.  Even better:  the Raptors are 5-0 ATS on the road this season after a loss by more than six points, and #1-seeded teams (like Milwaukee) are a poor 40% ATS in a Playoff series as a home favorite when up 1-game-to-none.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Golden State.  The Blazers were routed by 22 points in Game 1, 116-94, but I love them to bounce back in Oakland tonight.  Indeed, road teams off a loss by more than 21 points have cashed 92% in the semi-finals and finals of the NBA Playoffs since 1991, when priced from +2.5 to +7.5 points.  Even better:  the Trail Blazers are an awesome 11-1 ATS the past two years when playing with revenge from a double-digit road loss.  Finally, the Warriors are a wallet-busting 10-26-1 ATS in games with single-digit point spreads, if the Warriors were off 3+ wins.  Grab the points with Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Philadelphia, as Toronto falls into 49-23, 47-7, 50-10, 30-2, 107-64, 65-18, 158-87, 44-12, 37-6 and 100-43 ATS systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 49-23 ATS system.  Here, what we want to do is play against #3-seeded teams (like Philadelphia) off an upset win, if that #3 seed was not favored by more than 5 points in the current game.  Of course, there's nothing wrong with 49-23 ATS.  But we can improve our angle to a virtually-perfect 93%, 14-1 ATS if we limit our games to those that involved #3 seeds with a win percentage of .628 (or less).  The Raptors will also have the benefit of playing this Game 7 in front of their home faithful.  And that's been a significant advantage for home teams in Game 7 since the dawn of the NBA Playoffs, as they're 105-28 straight-up since 1947.  The numbers also are just as impressive in more recent times.  Indeed, dating back to 1991, home teams are 56-17 straight-up, and 41-30-2 ATS.  Lay the points with the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Portland.  The first four games of this series were relatively close, and were decided by an average of 5.5 points per game.  But the last two games were both blowouts.  Denver won here, at home, in Game 5 by 26 points, while Portland won Game 6 at home by 11 points.  I expect another blowout win by the home team in this Game 7.  Indeed, .667 (or worse) road underdogs of +4 (or more) points, off a double-digit win, have cashed just 21.8% in tied NBA quarterfinals series.  That doesn't bode well for Portland this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that Denver's been extremely strong at home this season (39-9 straight-up, 29-19 ATS), including 18-5 SU and 16-7 ATS when not favored by more than six points.  Or that Portland's road point spread record in the post-season is the 2nd-worst in the NBA (Atlanta's 24-51 ATS record is the worst).  Since 1991, the the Trail Blazers are a wallet-busting 18-67 SU and 29-52-4 ATS, including 10-28-3 ATS off a win.  Yikes!  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Golden State Game.  These two teams combined for just 203 points in Game 5, and it easily went 'under' the 221 Total.  I look for another very low-scoring game tonight, as this series has gone 'under' the total much more often than not.  Indeed, in the last 50 meetings, the 'under' has cashed 66% (33-17 'under'), including 16-6 'under' in the Playoffs.  Additionally, the Rockets have now gone 'under' in 23 of their last 32 Playoff games when they were not leading in the series, including 6-0 'under' when they were favored by more than 5 points.  And since Steve Kerr became head coach, the Warriors have gone 'under' the total in 18 of 23 games where they were priced as an underdog of +2.5 to +8 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  The Trail Blazers are down 3-games-to-2, and have failed to cover the point spread in each of the last three games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Blazers tonight, especially because they lost by 26 points in Game 5.  However, home favorites have covered 70.5% over the last 29 seasons in Game 6 or 7 of a Playoff series, if they were off three straight ATS defeats.  That bodes very well for Portland tonight.  As does the fact that the Nuggets are an awful 16% ATS since 1991 in the Playoffs off back to back wins, if they are up in their Playoff series by exactly one game.  Finally, #3-seeded teams, off a SU/ATS Playoff defeat, and down by exactly one game in the series, are a solid 55-35-4 ATS, including 30-15-3 ATS at home.  Take Portland to blow out Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks won their 3rd straight game -- 113-101 -- to take a 3-1 lead in this Best-of-7 series.  But off that win, we will fade Mike Budenholzer's team tonight.  Indeed, the Bucks are a horrid 19-50-2 ATS at home off 3+ wins when playing a rested opponent.  Even worse, since 1991, NBA underdogs of more than six points have cashed 73% off back-to-back home playoff defeats by 6+ points.  This game will go down to the wire.  Take Boston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Houston.  The Warriors lost in overtime, 126-121, in Game 3.  But they still are in a commanding 2-1 lead in this Best-of-7 series.  And that bodes well for the Warriors tonight, as they're 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS when up 2-games-to-1 in a series, including a perfect 4-0 ATS off a loss.  Moreover, since Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have been on the Warriors, they've been spectacular as a road underdog off a loss when matched up against an opponent off a win.  Dating back to the 2011-12 season, they've gone 30-6 ATS!  The Warriors are also 38-18 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, including 13-5 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Celtics won Game 1, 112-90, but lost the next two games by a combined 28 points.  They're in a "must-win" situation in this Game 4, and we'll back them at home, tonight.  Indeed, home teams down 2-games-to-1, off back to back losses in Games 2 +3, have cashed 69% in Game 4 against top 2-seeded teams.  Even better:  Boston's been a beast at home in the Playoffs when not getting 4+ points.  Dating back to April 26, 2017, it's gone 16-2 SU/ATS.  And, finally, the clincher is that the Celtics are 11-0 straight-up, and 10-1 ATS in the Playoffs off back to back SU/ATS losses, if it doesn't lead in the series.  Take Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Philadelphia.  The #2-seeded Raptors were blown out in Game 2 by the 76ers, and are now down 2-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series.  Even worse for Nick Nurse's crew:  they'll likely play this afternoon's game without their second-leading scorer (16.9 ppg), Pascal Siakam, who suffered a thigh contusion in Game 3.  The point spread for this game has been adjusted by the oddsmakers, of course, to reflect this injury.  Toronto opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but is now an underdog following the change of Siakam's playing status.  We'll grab the points with Toronto, as underdogs off an upset loss in the Playoffs have cashed 58% since 1991.  Additionally, the Raptors are 19-12 ATS their last 31 as an underdog.  And they're 22-5 SU and 18-9 ATS their last 27 vs. Philly.  Take the Raptors + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Portland.  We passed on the first two game of this quarterfinals series, but will grab the points with Denver tonight.  The Nuggets lost a rare home game on Wednesday, 97-90, as a 4-point favorite.  However, Denver is 17-5 ATS off a home loss when the current game had a point spread of 4 points or less.  And road underdogs, off an upset loss at home in the Playoffs, have cashed 57% since 1991.  Finally, the Trail Blazers have covered just 24 of 69 if they were off a Playoff win, including 16 of 52 if they weren't favored by more than 5 points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors over Philadelphia.  The Raptors are having a great season, as they went 58-24 in the regular season (and are now 5-2 in the playoffs), and are outscoring their opponents by 6.50 points per game.  Toronto was upset at home in Game 2, so it's critical to get at least one win at Philadelphia in order to take this series back to Toronto no worse than tied at 2 games apiece.  We'll play on the Raptors in Game 3, as NBA teams, off exactly one SU/ATS playoff defeat, have covered 64% the last 29 years (and 11-2, 84% ATS the past 3+ years), if that defeat was at home, and they have a margin of victory greater than 6.35 points per game.  That bodes very well for Toronto.  As does the fact that the 76ers are an awful 4-22 straight-up, and 8-18 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these two Atlantic Division rivals.  Finally, #3-seeded teams are a wallet-busting 25% ATS since 1991 when tied at 1 game apiece in the NBA Playoffs, and off an upset road win in Game 2.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Philadelphia game.  The Raptors have gone 'under' the total in six of seven Playoff games this season.  And they haven't been close.  Indeed, in the Orlando series, the first four games went 'under' by 7, 19.5, 20, and 14 points, while the 5th game did go 'over' the total, but by just 5 points.  And this series is following down a similar path, as Games 1 + 2 have gone 'under' the total by 20 and 36.5 points.  In the Magic series, the oddsmakers were slow to adjust, as the first three games had totals of 212, 212.5 and 211.  Here, in this series, the oddsmakers have adjusted a bit more, as the first three games have had lines of 223, 219.5 and (currently) 216.5 for tonight's game.  But, based on my numbers, the line should be significantly lower, still.  Philly has gone 'under' in 27 of its last 40 home Playoff games, while Toronto has gone 'under' in 14 of its last 20 road Playoff games.  Finally, the total falls into 91-55, 89-54, 99-67, 22-12, 137-91 and 33-13 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston.  The Bucks own the best record in the NBA this season, but didn't play like it in Game 1 of this series.  The Celtics blew out Milwaukee, 112-90, to take a 1-0 lead in this quarterfinals match-up.  The entire Bucks' starting line-up shot the ball poorly, as not one player hit 50% of his shots, and the five starters combined to go 15-50, 30%.  As a team, the Bucks were 31-89, 34%.  In contrast, the Celtics' starters combined to shoot 34-64, 53%, while their full team was 47-87, 54%.  Not surprisingly, the Bucks lost by 22, which was their worst defeat this entire season.  However, there is reason for optimism.  First, Milwaukee has generally bounced back strong off poor offensive efforts this season.  Indeed, in the regular season, the Bucks had five SU/ATS losses, in which they shot less than 40%.  But following each of those SU/ATS losses, the Bucks were a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS, and covered the point spread by an average of 9.3 ppg.  That bodes well for Milwaukee on Tuesday night.  As does the fact that #4-seeded teams have cashed just 33% (18-36-2 ATS) since 1993 off an upset road win in the Playoffs.  Moreover, .687 (or better) teams -- like Milwaukee -- are 100% perfect, 10-0 ATS, in the Playoffs since 2006 as favorites of -5+ points, if they were off exactly one loss, and lost that previous game at home by 7+ points.  The Bucks also fall into 23-0, 62-21, 46-11, 100-50, 145-87, 94-42 and 25-1 ATS systems of mine.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston.  The Bucks earned the number 1 overall seed this NBA season -- their first with Mike Budenholzer roaming the sidelines.  And they've also been great against the point spread, as they're 51-31-4 ATS on the year.  We'll lay the points this afternoon, as home teams that have covered 62+ percent of their games have cashed 71% in the Playoffs since 1991.  Even better:  #1-seeded teams have cashed 69% since 1991 in the Quarterfinals when matched up against opponents off a road win, provided they weren't favored by 12+ points.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs.  We played on the Spurs Thursday night, and got the $$$ with a 120-103 victory.  But that game was at the AT&T Center, where the Spurs have been dominant.  On the road, it's been a completely different story.  And the one statistic which best illustrates this (and one I've mentioned a couple of times already in this series) is that San Antonio is 1-31 straight-up, and 9-22-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points. This stat dates back to the game the Spurs effectively lost their star player, Kawhi Leonard -- Game 1 of the 2017 Western Conference Finals -- when he was injured by Zaza Pachulia.  At the time of the injury, the Spurs had a real shot to win the NBA Title.  Since then, they've been a bottom-rung playoff team.  Gregg Popovich, who perhaps (if he chooses to retire) will be coaching his final game tonight, has done a masterful job to get this crew to a Game 7 vs. Denver, but it all should come to an end tonight, especially given how well home teams do, generally, in Game 7s.  Historically, home teams are 104-28 straight-up.  And, dating back to 1991, home teams are 55-17 straight-up, and 41-29-2 ATS.  Lay the points with the Nuggets.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Philadelphia. The 76ers easily handled the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, with a 4-1 series win.  But they now have to greatly step-up in class, and have been installed as a big underdog vs. Toronto.   Unfortunately for Philly, over the last 29 years, NBA underdogs of 5+ points have covered just 25% in Game 1 of the quarter-finals, if they were on a 3-game (or better) win streak (including 0-4 ATS the last 3 years).  Even worse:  the 76ers are 3-20 straight-up, and 7-16 ATS vs. Toronto in the last 23 meetings, including 1-11 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles/Golden State game.  The #1-seeded Warriors surrendered 129 points to the Clippers in Game 5, and that won't sit well with coach Steve Kerr.  Indeed, it was the 4th-worst defensive effort by his team in 88 Playoff since he's become head coach.  But after giving up 115+ points in a playoff game under Kerr, the Warriors have generally rebounded with a much better defensive effort, as they've gone 'under' the total 64% of the time.  And that dovetails with the Warriors' results, generally, off a loss since Kerr became coach, as they're 63-44 'under' the total after losing their previous game.  Moreover, dating back to 1993, #1-seeded teams have gone 'under' the total 79% of the time as road favorites (or PK) off an upset home loss in the Playoffs.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Los Angeles.  The Warriors were upset at home for the 2nd time in this series when they lost 129-121 in Game 5, as a 14-point favorite.  But, as we saw in Game 3 following Game 2's upset loss, the Warriors are often at their best following a very bad game.  Golden State won that Game 3 by a 132-105 score, and easily covered the number.  I expect a similar result on this Friday night, as Golden State is an awesome 34-1 straight-up and 27-8 ATS as a favorite of -6 or more points off a loss if they're playing an opponent off a win.  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Denver.  San Antonio was blown out in Game 5.  But that shouldn't have surprised anyone, as San Antonio is now 1-31 straight-up and 9-22-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points.  Now, the Spurs return home.  And San Antonio is 23-3 straight-up and 22-5 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  The Spurs have also won 14 of 15 home games vs. the Nuggets.  Lay the points with San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets to go 'under' the total.  San Antonio is in a 'must-win' situation tonight, as it is down 3-games-to-2.  And one of the things I love to do is play on the 'under' in "elimination" games, if the team in the 'must-win' position is favored, and off a double-digit loss.  Since 1991, such teams have gone 'under' the total 59.3% of the time.  The 'under' also falls into 73-51 and 84-43 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Utah.  The Rockets were up 3 games to none, but took their foot off the gas in Game 4, and were upset by the Jazz, 107-91.  Part of the problem for the Rockets on Monday was that center Clint Capela was still struggling with a viral infection, which has severely limited his production in this series.  But with 48 hours of rest, coach Mike D'Antoni is optimistic that Capela will be back to his normal, dominant self tonight.  Houston has dominated Utah in this price range, as Houston is 14-2 straight-up and 12-4 ATS when priced from -3 to -9 vs. the Jazz.  Even better for the Rockets:  5-point (or greater) NBA favorites, off upset road losses in the Playoffs, have covered 68% since May 2003, if they failed to cover the spread by 15+ points in their previous game.  Lay the points with the home club.  NBA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Orlando game.  We played on the 'under' in Game 2, and it easily sailed under the closing 211 number, as Toronto won, 98-93.  The number is a bit lower today, but the oddsmakers have yet to catch up to the rightful number.  Indeed, the three games in this Playoff series have gone 'under' all three times, by 7.5, 19.5 and 20 points.  And if we go back to the regular season, six of the seven meetings this season have gone 'under' (as have 14 of the last 19 meetings).  The Magic are 39-19 'under' off a straight-up loss, including 14-0 'under' their last 14 when priced from +4 to +9.5 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Houston.  The Jazz lost by a combined 52 points in Games 1 + 2 of this series.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Utah, especially since it's been installed as a favorite in Game 3.  But NBA favorites have actually cashed 62.8% in the NBA Playoffs after losing each of the first two games of a series by double-digits.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee.  Detroit finds itself in an 0-2 hole as this series shifts to the Motor City.  I love the Pistons tonight, as underdogs of +6 or more points, in the Opening Round of the NBA Playoffs, have covered 67% of Game 3s over the last 29 seasons when they lost the first two games of the series.  Take the Pistons.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets plus the points over Philadelphia.  The Nets look to even up this series at 2 games apiece after dropping the last two games to Philly.  We will take Brooklyn, as home teams have cashed 67% since 1991 when down 2 games to 1 in a series, and not laying 7 or more points.  Additionally, the Nets are 6-1 ATS at home their last seven when they were off back to back losses.  Take Brooklyn.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Portland.  The Thunder were blown out by 20 points in Game 2, and now return home for a "must win" game 3.  We'll lay the points with the Thunder, as favorites of -3+ points, off a Playoff loss (as an underdog) by 20+ points, have cashed 68.4% since 1991.  Take Oklahoma City.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Boston.  The Pacers were up seven points at halftime in Game 1, and were up 11 points after 3 quarters in Game 2, but blew both leads.  Thus, Indiana finds itself in an 0-2 hole in the series.  The good news for Indy, however, is that it's an awesome 139-73-9 ATS off a loss, if it was rested, and playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a straight-up win.  Take the Pacers to win (and cover) Game 3.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Orlando game to go 'under' the total.  The first two games of this series went 'under' the total.  And that's been "par for the course" in this series, as these two teams also went 'under' in three of their four meetings in the regular season this year (and 13 of the last 18, dating back to 2014).  The 'under' also falls into a super NBA Playoffs Totals system of mine which is 136-89 (60.4%) since 1991.  Take the 'under.'

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles/Golden State game.  The #1-seeded Warriors blew a 31-point lead in Game 2, and they fell to the Clippers, 135-131.  That was the 2nd-most points the Warriors have given up all season, and the reason was their defense in the 2nd half.  Golden State actually led 73-50 at halftime.  But it shockingly gave up 85 points in the 2nd half.  Coach Steve Kerr will no doubt emphasize defense for this road game at Staples Center.  And it should comfortably sail under the total, which is a very high number.  Indeed, dating back to 1991, #1-seeded teams have gone 'under' the total 83% of the time as road favorites (or PK) off an upset loss at home in the Playoffs.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Denver.  We played on the Nuggets in Game 2, and got the $$$ when the Nuggets blew out the Spurs in the 2nd half for a nine-point comeback victory.  One of the reasons  played against San Antonio was its god-awful record on the road when installed as an underdog of more than 4 points (now 1-30 straight-up since May 2017).  However, at home, the Spurs have dominated, with a 43-10 SU record (34-19 ATS).  And Gregg Popovich's men have been especially strong when playing with revenge.  Dating back to March 2018, the Spurs are 22-3 straight-up and 21-4 ATS in this role!  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Houston.  The 4th-seeded Rockets blew out Utah 122-90 in Game 1 behind 29 points from James Harden.  Unfortunately for Houston, NBA #4 seeds are a money-burning 0-19 ATS vs. .600 (or better) foes in the first round of the Playoffs, as favorites of more than 3 points, if they were off a SU/ATS win.  Even worse for Houston:  Utah's 17-8 ATS as a road underdog off a double-digit Playoff loss, while Houston has covered just 9 of 32 games as a home favorite after a double-digit home win in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee.  Virtually everything went right for Mike Budenholzer's men in Game 1.  They sprinted out to a 38-18 lead after the first quarter, en route to a 35-point victory.  Milwaukee, of course, was aided by the fact that the Pistons' Blake Griffin was sidelined with a knee injury.  Griffin has been ruled out for the remainder of this series, as well, and his absence has been accounted for in the game 2 point spread.  We'll take the underdog in tonight's game, as teams off Playoff blowout wins by 35+ points have been atrocious (22% ATS the past 29 years) in their next game.  Take the Pistons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs did something very much out of character in Game 1:  they pulled a big upset on the road, as a 5.5-point underdog.  Indeed, the Spurs road win percentage this season is .404.  And over the last two seasons, going into this series, they were 0-27 straight up, and 7-19-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than four points!  Unfortunately for the Spurs, they're likely to revert to form tonight.  And that's because, since April 28, 1991, NBA road teams, with a road win percentage less than .405, have covered just 33% in the Playoffs following an upset road win.  Take Denver to slaughter San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Orlando.  The Raptors lost at home in Game 1, 104-101, to the Magic.  And they were favored by 9.5 points in that game.  The good news for Kawhi Leonard & Co. is that favorites of more than 9 points, off a game where they lost outright, and also failed to cover the spread by more than 9 points, are 30-0 straight-up, and 22-7-1 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Toronto to blow out Orlando.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors routed L.A. in Game 1, 121-104.  But off that blowout win, we'll fade the defending Champs on this Monday.  Indeed, double-digit home favorites off SU/ATS home playoff wins by 10+ points have covered just 36% since 1991.  That doesn't bode well for Golden State tonight.  And neither does the fact that the Clippers are 45-37-1 ATS this season, compared to just 36-46-1 ATS for Golden State.  The Clippers are also 10-4 ATS their last 14 road games when playing with revenge.  And #1 seeds (like the Warriors) are an awful 48-73-6 ATS as a favorite after winning Game 1 of a playoff series.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Sixers were stunned, 111-102, in Game 1 of this series, here at home.  But I love Philly to bounce back today, as home favorites of -7+ points, off a straight-up loss in the Playoffs (and ATS loss) by 7+ points each, have cashed 62.3% in conference games since 1991!  Moreover, the Sixers are 43-29 ATS their last 72 at home, including 18-8 ATS off an ATS defeat by more than four points.  Take Philadelphia to blow out Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder swept the season series, 4-0, from Portland this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Portland because of that fact.  However, road teams (like Oklahoma City) have gone 0-8 SU/ATS since 1991 in Game 1 of a Playoff series if they weren't getting 10+ points, and they swept the regular season series!  That doesn't bode well for the Thunder.  Even worse:  Oklahoma City is a horrid 1-13 straight-up and 2-12 ATS on the road in Game 1 of a Playoff series, including 0-8 SU/ATS in the first two rounds.  Finally, Portland falls into a super 120-62 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs have certainly been a great Playoff team over the years.  But they've really struggled as underdogs of +5 (or more) points when matched up against a top 2-seeded opponent.  Since 2001, they've gone just 3-21 straight-up and 7-17 ATS, including 1-14 ATS if the Spurs were not off a SU/ATS win.  That doesn't bode well for San Antonio on Saturday night.  And neither does the fact that San Antonio is an awful 0-4 straight-up the past two seasons at Denver, with its average margin of defeat being 10.5 points.  The Nuggets have not held home court advantage in a Playoff series very often.  Indeed, over the last 28 years, they've only been in that position in four series.  But in those four series, they won that first (home) game all four times, and by an average of 14.5 points per game.  When these two teams last met (just 10 days ago), the Spurs were destroyed by Denver, 113-85.  And teams playing with revenge from a loss in the regular season by 15+ points have covered just 42 of 106 Playoff games.  The biggest problem for San Antonio in this series will be the Nuggets' All-Star center, Nikola Jokic.  In the last three games played between these two teams, Jokic has gone 10-14, 10-14 and 9-10 from the field, and also pulled down 10 rebounds per game.  Jokic will prove to be too much for the Spurs to handle.  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Clippers minus the points over Utah.  The Jazz won their final home game of the season yesterday when the defeated Denver.  Meanwhile, the Clippers had the last 2 nights off following their 27-point loss at Golden State, so they'll be very well rested for this game.  Los Angeles needs to win, and also have either San Antonio or Oklahoma City lose, in order to avoid the 8th seed.  Unfortunately, both the Spurs and Thunder are favored to win their games tonight (both early starts), so the Clippers could very well have their fate sealed by the time this late night game begins.  Regardless, I expect a strong effort, as they'll enter tonight's play on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, and will no doubt want to get back into the win column prior to the start of the Playoffs.  Los Angeles is an awesome 7-0 ATS its last seven (and 13-3 ATS its last 16) games off a road defeat.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Miami.  The Heat had an emotional game last night, at home, when they defeated Philly, 122-99, in Dwyane Wade's final home game.  Tonight, they have to take on the Playoff-bound Nets, who come into this season finale off back to back upset wins over Milwaukee and Indiana.  Since 1990, home teams have cashed 71% in their final game of the season, if they were off back to back upset wins.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors come into this final game of the regular season with the #1 seed locked up.  So, this game will hold little meaning to Steve Kerr's crew.  Not surprisingly, since 1990, #1-seeded Playoff teams have covered just 35.7% of their final games of the regular season, if they were on the road.  Take Memphis + the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Dallas.  This game is critical for the Spurs.  If they win, they'll avoid the Warriors in the 1st round of the Playoffs.  San Antonio also will play this game with a big advantage in terms of their days of rest.  The Spurs have had the last two days off, while Dallas had to play last night.  San Antonio is 96-58 ATS its last 154 vs. unrested foes.  Lay the points with San Antonio.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets over Orlando.  The Hornets will likely miss the Playoffs, as they need to defeat Orlando and also need the NY Knicks to upset Detroit in order to qualify for the post-season.  But anything's possible, so Charlotte will certainly put forth its best effort tonight.  The Hornets didn't put forth their best effort when these two teams last met on Valentine's Day.  The Magic won that game, 127-89.  But Charlotte had won the previous 13 games in this series (11-2 ATS) and I look for them to avenge that 38-point loss tonight.  Indeed, underdogs off a SU/ATS win (like Orlando), which defeated their opponent by 30+ points in the previous meeting, are a soft 28-53-1 ATS since 1990.  Take Charlotte.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over Indiana.  The Pacers have dropped nine of their last 12 games, and are locked into the #5 slot in the Eastern Conference.  With nothing to play for, we'll fade them on the road tonight at Atlanta, as the Hawks are still playing hard (even though they also have nothing to play for).  Atlanta's covered 17 of its last 23 games, including 9-3 ATS off a straight-up loss.  In contrast, the Pacers are 8-13 ATS their last 21.  Finally, Indiana falls into a negative 86-127-4 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain road teams late in the season, as well as a negative 163-215-8 ATS system which fades certain teams that won the season's first three meetings.  Take the Hawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Phoenix.  We played against the Suns on Sunday, as we had our NBA Game of the Month on Houston.  And the Rockets blew out Phoenix by 36 points.  We will go against Phoenix again, tonight, as Dallas will be playing its final home game of the season (and possibly the final home game of Dirk Nowitzki's storied career).  The Mavericks are still playing hard (they won a road game at Memphis, on Sunday), and fall into an 86-42 ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine (which Houston, coincidentally, also fell into when they played Phoenix on Sunday).  Lay the points with Dallas.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over New York.  The Knicks upset the Wizards, 113-110, in their previous game.  But New York is still just 16-64 on the season, and has only won back-to-back games three times.  I love playing against really bad teams off wins.  And I won't make an exception here, as this also is New York's final road game of the season.  And they're playing a revenge-minded Bulls team they defeated just eight days ago.  New York is a poor 2-10 ATS this season in "win situation" games, where the line is 3 points or less.  And Chicago's 9-4 ATS its last 13 "Last Home Games."  Take the Bulls minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Boston.  This is the final game of the season for both teams.  And the Celtics look to be mailing this game in.  Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Aron Baynes, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford all will be in street clothes.  Washington plays with revenge from an 11-point defeat to the Celtics, in Boston, last month.  And Washington is 17-8 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  Additionally, Boston falls into a negative 32-68 ATS "Late season" system of mine which fades certain teams on the road at the end of the year.  Take Washington.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Orlando.  Boston played its best game in a month in its last time out, with a 20-point win at Indiana.  The Celtics have now won 3 in a row, and need to win at least one more game to wrap up home court advantage in the first round.  Tonight, they'll take on an Orlando Magic team which narrowly defeated the Celtics by two points in the last meeting.   Boston is 9-0 ATS when playing with revenge, if the Celtics covered their previous game by 7+ points.  And Boston's also 19-5-1 ATS at home off 3+ wins, including 10-0 ATS its last 10 if it covered its two previous games.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Phoenix.  The Rockets are still in the hunt for the #2 seed in the Western Conference, as they're currently just 1.5 games behind the Nuggets.  And Houston's been taking no prisoners lately, as they're on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak.  They've won those five games by 27, 11, 25, 32 and 24 points.  Tonight, they'll take on a short-handed Phoenix club which will be without its best player, Devin Booker.  And, regardless of who has been on the court, the Suns haven't been able to defeat Houston in any of the last 10 meetings.  For the season, the Suns are giving up 116.4 ppg.  And Houston's dominated opponents that have a defensive ppg average of 116+, as it's cashed 69.5%.  Finally, this is Houston's last home game of the season, and the Rockets fall into a 52-11 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams in their final game in front of their home faithful.  Meanwhile, the Suns fall into a negative 22-59 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road teams late in the season.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the OKC Thunder minus the points over Minnesota.  The Thunder are currently in the 7th slot in the Western Conference, but need to win their two final games, or they could easily fall to the 8th seed (and have to play Golden State).  This is a revenge game for OKC, which was upset by Minnesota when the two teams met last month.  That bodes well for OKC, as the Thunder are 54-35 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  the T-Wolves come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins over Dallas and Miami.  But those two victories have triggered a negative 104-175 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off back to back upsets.  Take the Thunder.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Cleveland.  The Spurs are battling OKC and the LA Clippers for the 6th, 7th and 8th seeds out West, as none of those teams wants to finish 8th and draw the Warriors in the 1st Round.  We played on San Antonio in its last game, and were rewarded with a 129-112 blowout of the Wizards.  We'll come right back with San Antone this afternoon, as the Spurs are 73-42 ATS on the road vs. Eastern Conference foes not off an ATS defeat.  With Cleveland in off a point spread win at Golden State on Friday, we'll lay the points with the Spurs.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Memphis.  This is the first of two back-to-back games played by these teams (they'll meet in Memphis on Sunday).  Dallas comes into tonight's game off an upset home loss to Minnesota.  And they also play with revenge from two losses to the Grizzlies earlier this season.  We'll lay the points with Dallas, as home favorites have cashed 64.7% in the regular season since 1990 when playing with double revenge against a division rival, if our home team is also off an upset home loss.  Take the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Washington.  San Antone is locked into a tight battle with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 7th spot out West.  If the Spurs are to catch the Thunder (they're currently one game behind), then a win tonight is critical.  San Antonio does come into tonight's game off five straight point spread losses.  But the Spurs are 38-20 ATS as road favorites of -10 or less points off 3+ ATS defeats.  Take San Antonio.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks are one of four Eastern Conference teams battling for the last three Playoff spots.  Currently, Orlando, Miami and Brooklyn all have 40 losses, while Detroit has 39.  Thus, tonight's home game vs. Atlanta is huge for Orlando.  The Magic have been dominant at home, as they currently have won eight straight in front of the home faithful (6-2 ATS), including a 7-point win over Golden State, and a double-digit win over these Hawks.  Orlando's 20-12-1 ATS its last 33 at home, and should be fired-up tonight as it will be its final home game of the season.  The Hawks have been awful on the road when playing an opponent in its final home game (4-22 straight-up; 6-17-3 ATS).  Take Orlando.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio.  This is one of the few games left on the NBA schedule where both teams will be well-motivated to win.  San Antonio is in a tight battle with Oklahoma City for the 7th seed, while Denver desperately wants to hang on to the #2 seed.  The home court has been the decisive factor in this series, as the home team has now won nine straight times, including San Antonio's 104-103 victory in the Alamo City on March 4.  The Spurs have also mightily struggled when playing revenge-minded Western Conference teams, and especially if their opponent owned a W/L percentage greater than .440.  Over the last two years, San Antonio is 5-18 straight-up and 6-17 ATS, including 0-9 SU/ATS in the regular season when getting more than 4 points.  Take Denver to blow out the Spurs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks beat the league's #1 team on Sunday, while the Spurs were stunned, 113-106, at home by Sacramento.  I love the Spurs to bounce back this evening, as NBA teams off 7-point (or worse) defeats have gone 115-77, 60% ATS, vs. foes off upset wins over .667 (or better) teams.  San Antonio has also cashed 75% since April 18, 1993 off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite.  Lay the points with the Spurs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Los Angeles.  The Lakers come into tonight's game off back to back wins (and covers) over Charlotte (129-115) and New Orleans (130-102), while the Thunder suffered their biggest upset loss of the season, on Sunday, when they fell to Dallas, as a 12.5-point favorite (106-103).  OKC will once again be favored by double-digits tonight, and I expect a much different result than the last time these two teams met (the Lakers upset OKC, 138-128, on Jan. 17).  First of all, the Lakers are an awful 33-62-4 ATS in the regular season off back to back wins and covers, if their opponent was off a loss.  And, second, the Thunder are 32-15 ATS in the Regular season when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU/ATS win, if the Thunder owned a winning record.  Lay the points with OKC.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks' injury list is extensive for tonight's game:  Nikola Mirotic (Out), Malcolm Brogdon (Out), Pau Gasol (Out), Donte DiVincenzo (Out), Khris Middleton (Questionable), Tony Snell (Questionable).  They played yesterday in Atlanta (also minus Eric Bledsoe and Giannis Antetokounmpo), and went into overtime in a 136-135 loss.  That sets up Milwaukee in a bad situation tonight, as unrested teams are 25-44 ATS after playing in a high-scoring game (262+ points) the day before.  Certainly, this is a big game for both of these teams, as each is fighting for playoff positions.  But Brooklyn's urgency is a bit greater as it sits just a half-game behind Detroit for 6th, and is in front of Miami by the same amount for the 7th spot.  Milwaukee, meanwhile, still has 3 games of breathing room between it and Toronto for the #1 spot (with just five games to play).  Brooklyn lost at home to these Bucks, 113-94, in their last meeting.  But Brooklyn is 14-1 ATS, including 11-0 ATS its last 11, when playing with revenge and not getting more than 6 points.  Take the Nets.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.