Sports Picks & Predictions

June Jones came over from Hawaii after successful tenure there, and he is akll about offense. The Mustangs immediately went into offensive mode with his arrival, and it won't change this season. The Mustangs are going to throw the ball 70% of the time, and it has gone both ways under Levi Mitchell. Mitchell threw 23 INT's a year ago, but also had 24 TD passes. The ball was in the air 35 times a game, but this year so far it is a more Hawaii like 50 times a game. The Mustang offense will get some points here, but they will also give some away to a solid TCU defense, so they will provide points here on both sides. TCU has always been known for defense, and they have a good one, but the offense is better than ever, and should put up an abundance of points her vs a poor SMU defense. The forte of the defense has always been against the run, but SMU won't even try to pretend to run the ball here. TCU doesn't face many pass happy teams, so they will probably give up a couple here, and probably take one the other way as well. That will provide ample points to push this one over the total.

The UL Monroe Warhawks have brought back 17 starters from a year ago, and the defense is loaded with talent and spped, and they will get their first crack at home vs like competition. UL Monroe lced 4 defensive players on the Sun Belt pre-season All-Conference team, while Florida International placed 0 on offense, and UL Monroe had 0 on offense. There were 6 players named to the all-conference 1st team defense and 6 are represented by these 2 schools. neither of these teams are very offensive, and I see this one a game of field position. UL Monroe is at their best when they can allow their defense to help determine the outcome and are now 7-0 to the under when posted as a favorite. I like this one to go under the total.

The BYU Cougars many believed would be in the running for a BCS Bowl bid, but a huge loss to Florida St. at home, has put those talks on hold. There has to be some concern over the Cougar offense that was outgained by Colorado St, and Florida St. as well, as QB Max Hall continues to make ill-advised decisions, having thrown 8 INT's already, after throwing just 12 all of last year. Utah St. ranks 8th in the country on offense, but we saw what a step up in class did to expose the #1 ranked Hawaii offense last night, as they managed just 6 points vs Louisiana Tech. Last year these teams put up just 48 points, and the year before at BYU, the Aggies didn't score a point. This game has only seen 65 points scored in 3 of the last 12 played at BYU, with the Aggies scoring 13 or less in 9 of them, and averaging just 13.6ppg. That would mean BYU would have to go over 50, something they have done just twice at home in the 12 games. This one doesn't reach a lofty total, and I'm going under here.

This game features teams of contrasting offenses, with Hawaii wanting to throw the ball, and Louisiana Tech wanting to run the ball. Hawaii's offense took a huge step back a year ago, as expected with the graduation of Colt Brennen. It took QB Greg Alexander the first half of last season to get a grasp on the run-and-shoot offense, but when he did the Warriors began to score. The Warriors averaged 30.3ppg in their last 7, which included games vs Cincinnati, and Notre Dame. This season, although the schedule has been weak, the Warriors lead the nation in offense, and passing is their key. That presents a problem for Louisiana Tech. They were awful last year against the pass, allowing 272.7 yards a game. What stands out about those numbers is the fact they played against 7 teams that ranked an avrage of 89th in passing offense out of 120 teams! While they did a good job vs teams that had poor passing attacks defensively, as those 7 teams averaged just 17.8ppg against them, when facing teams that could pass the ball they allowed 31.4ppg. The offense is returning 9 starters from a team that averaged 34ppg in their last 5 conference games. Hawaii boasts a 20-6-1 mark to the over in their last 27 vs a team with a losing record. This one is going over the total.

Week 3 of the NFL has seen the average points scored at 41.12 since 1983. It is historically one of the lowest scoring weeks in the NFL season, with the first two games getting players used to contact again, and a lot end up with injuries or nicked up pretty good. There have been 324 games played in week 3 with the under going 176-148 or connecting 54.3% in all games. When you look at the totals from the average NFL score during this week of 41, and go up to 49, these games have now gone 108-62 after yesterday's 5-2 performance to the UNDER. That is 63.5% going under the total, and historically, once a total reaches the upper portion of this range, the under has been solid in any week. Panthers are now 22-10 in their last 32 September games to the under, and Dallas is 46-21 to the under vs teams with a losing record. UNDER gets the call here.

This is a market inefficiency play. First of all high totals in the NFL have the propensity to go under, and not turn into the shootouts they are expected to produce. Week 3 in the NFL is a transitional week, lots of injuries, and players dinged up from the new contact sustained in games 1 & 2. Overall since 1983 week 3 NFL totals have gone 176-148 to the under or 54.3%, one of the highest under totals of any week in the NFL. The average total points scored this week are 41.12, so when totals reach the average point or higher, from 41-49.5 they have produced unders to a mark of 103-60 or 63.2% of the time. I am playing this one big to go under the total.

There are times in the NFL that a QB and team look so good, it is hard to imagine them not scoring big after watching them put up 40 in back-to-back weeks. Drew Brees and the Saints have had that look the first 2 weeks of the season. It has forced the hand of the oddsmakers to stack this total, and it is simply too high, and beyond expectations. Since week 16 of the 1999 NFL season we have seen a team accomplish what the Saints just did, and had their next game on the road 17 times. The results will surprise you, as well as the bandwagon hoppers, 65% of them playing the OVER in this one. These teams, that scored 40+ in 2 straight games, and then took to the road, averaged 20.5ppg in the 17 games!!! The total points scored in the 17 games averaged just 43ppg!!!! That leaves us over a TD over what the total should be in this game. The 17 gmes saw 12 of them fail to produce 51 points scored or 71% of them!!! This one goes under the total.

Thursday night I was on the South Carolina/Mississippi game under the total. One of the reasons was the fact that the South Carolina/Georgia game was an apparent shootout, but the reality is it was not. Most of the scores occured on a short field, and it made the defenses look a lot worse than they are, as well as making the offenses look much better than they truly are. Arizona St. comes in here scoring 44ppg, but against ULM, and Idaho St. The reality is they gained just 327 yards against a suspect Sun Belt team, and just 407 against Idaho St. The Sun Devils lost their QB, as did Georgia,and the Sun Devil running game is suspect at best. The Sun Devils bring back Dexter Davis on defense, the only returning player in the country to record 10+ sacks the last 2 years. He will team with Lawrence guy who had 10 tackles for a loss a year ago. Arizona St. is one of the deepest teams in the country at LB, where they have 8 or 9 with experience, and all of them can play. It has rained in Georgia all week, and the forecast calls for heavy rain during the game, which will slow down the play, and the defenses should rule here. I'm playing this one under the total.

The Kansas Jayhawks return QB Todd Reesing in a conference that is loaded with offense, and this Kansas team is designed to compete offensively. Reesing has a strong accurate arm, and great pocket presence, and can scramble, and keep looking downfield, making him a dangerous threat. He has a pair of talented wide recievers that combined for 189 catches and 2,452 yards, and 23 TD's a year ago, so the Jayhawks are gonna score. Defensively the entire linebacking corp is gone, and there is no true playmaker, or all-conference talent on the line. Southern Miss has a pair of talented sophomoes in QB Austin Davis, and WR Deandre Brown. Add in running back Damion Fletcher, and conference offensive records are going to be challenged. When all is said and done this game has the potential to be electric, and offensively explosive. Most of the talent is on offense here, from both sides, and I like this one to go over the total.

This one has been bid up by the oddsmakers, as it is a primetime event, and last seem South Carolina was supposed to be a defensive struggle vs Georgia, that turned into a shootout. Georgia went on to win that one by the count of 41-37. That game did not feature the offense indicitive of the final score. South Carolina has had trouble running the ball, as they went for just 3.7 a carry in that Georgia game, and just 2.6 vs NC State. The Gamecocks scored 2 TD's in the first 9 minutes of the Georgia game, and never found it again the rest of the game. They managed just 3 points vs NC State, and never found the end-zone in that one either. This is a team that will struggle against the best rushing defense they will have seen to date, and one that led the nation a year ago with 111 tackles for a loss. A one-dimensional team is not going to score a lot in the SEC on a consistent basis. The Rebels have a lot of skilled players on offense, but the Carolina team is a better defensive cub than they showed against Georgia. They faced some talented offensive teams at home a year ago, and not one of them scored over 24 points, in fact the average allowed was just 13ppg. The fact is even 2 years ago, if you discount the game at home vs Florida who scored 50 on everyone, the Gamecocks again allowed noone over 23, and the 6 other home games showed them allowing 16.8ppg. Looking back even 3 years ago the Gamecocks allowed just 18.2ppg at home. Just Florida, and Alabama scored over 26 points against this Gamecock team over their last 25 home games. Outside of that Florida game SC home SEC games have seen totals average 43.7 and the results average 41.1. It is surprising to see this one in the 50s. Ole Miss fits a nice under trend that has gone 28-6 to the under, taking a team that closed last year with 5 straight wins or more, in early season September conference games. Conference games in the early going, the month of September with 5 or fewer offensive starters returning, vs a defense with 8 or more strters returning have returned a 28-5 mark to the under. Houston Nutt is also 20-8 to the under in his coaching career as a favorite of 3.5-10 points. This one goes under the total.

The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks were not a dynamic offensive team a year ago. Last year they finished 7th in the weak Sun Belt Conference in total offense, and 6th in scoring. Their biggest threat was QB Kinsmon Lancaster, so they must replace the key and central figure to the offense, that wasn't very good to begin with. They also must replace their all-conference tight end, which will hurt both the running and passing game. We get a break on the total here as they scored 58 against nobody Texas Southern, and 20 against a Texas team that was eyeing this week's game vs Texas Tech. Texas commited 3 turnovers, and gave up a big 75 yard pass play. ULM does return a lot of good parts on defense, and has switched to a 3-3-5 defense under new coordinator Troy reffert who was brought in from New Mexico. They held a powerful Texas team to 4.2ypc running the ball. Arizona St. took a loss at QB as well with Rudy Carpenter gone, and left behind is a lackluster running game. Their 50-3 thrashing of Idaho St. tells nothing of the flaws offensively. Danny Sullivan is the new QB and he completed just 15-43 passes so far in his career. ASU has allowed 89 sacks over the last 2 seasons, and the 3-3-5 defense employed by ULM is designed to blitz from all over the field, and ASU may have problems putting up enough points here to put this one ver. Defense will be the calling card for this team this season. Dexter Davis is the only player in the country off back-to-back double-digit sack seasons. They also have Lawrence Guy who had 10 tackles for a loss in the DL. The Sun Devils are 8 to 9 deep at LB so the front 7 is going to be a force. The DB's feature an abundance of talent, and speed, and I expect them to completely shutdown ULM in this one. This game has all the ear-marks of a low scoring game, and I will go with the under in this one.

The Uconn Huskies will have to be led by their defense in this one, as they lost their starting QB last week. The Husky offense already misses Donald Brown, and the passing game is virtually non-existent, but the defense remains solid. Baylor has a lot of athletes, especially at QB, but the Huskies have the overall team speed and quickness to the ball to defend the field against Baylor. The Bears were slowed down at Wake Forest, and the Huskies at this point of the season are better defensively then Wake. With a backup QB and lackluster passing game to begin with the Huskies will rely on the defense to come up big, and the running game to shorten the game. I like this one to go under the total.

The North Texas Mean Green will come out of Alabama with just one thing, a big pay check, and perhaps another, a bruised ego. The Mean Green has ventured into BCS Conference schools turf a dozen times over the last several years, and the resulting offensive output shows 6,3,10,7,7,7,3,0,3,7,0,and 7 points. That is a grand total of 60 points, or exactly 5 a game. They will face one of the top defenses in the country in Alabama, who allowed much better offensive teams in Virginia Tech and Florida International a grand total of 65 yards on 57 rushing attempts. This is a Mean Green team that could muster just 2.9ypc against Ohio,U. This is an Alabama team that just grinds out yards on the ground, and not like an Oklahoma, or a Texas, or Florida that produces 50,60, or even 70 points in this type of game. The last 5 times they have squared off with a Sun Belt team they have scored an average of 30.8ppg, while allowing 7. Not one of the games has featured scoring a combined 50 points, the number that is posted here. The Tide has Arkansas on deck, and I wouldn't look for them to be running this one up, but look for them to shorten the game, and get out healthy, and grab a win. I'll play this one to go under the total.

The ACC has been known for being a very defensive conference, and last year had no team in the top 45 nationally in yards gained per game, while the defenses posted 7 teams in the top 25. So this season we have seen Florida St. and Miami post a 38-34 shootout, and Georgia Tech and Clemson hook up in a 30-27 shootout as well. That allows for the oddsmakers to post this one in the 50s, which is way too high. Last year these teams played 8 conference games each, and the highest posted total in any of the 16 games was 50. Georgia Tech played to an average total of 42.19 in conference games, while Miami played to an average posted total of 42.06. Even with those low 40s numbers unders in the 16 games beat the number the majority of the time. Tech has experience at LB, and playmakers in the secondary, and a star in the making on their DL in Derrick Morgan who had 7 sacks a year ago, and 9.5 tackles for a loss. The Hurricanes weakest part of their defense is a young, but talented secondary, but that is not Tech's game. Tech completed just 4 passes vs Clemson, and had 17 attempts. They will run the option most of the time, and the Hurricane strength s the DL. The linebacking corp, is headed by the all ACC defensive rookie of the year Sean Spence. This total is pumped up, because of the two opening game ACC shootouts each played, but let's take a look. Georgia was in a 30-27 game with Clemson, and 38 of the 57 points were scored from outside the redzone, which included plays of 82.85,77,63,and 34 yards, along with a 53yd FG. These teams combined for a total of just 28 first downs. The bottomline is the teams gained a total of 549 yards combined without the big plays, hardly an offensive display. Miami and Clemson put up 72 points, but again the game was dominated by big plays, as 43% of the points, 31 of them came from beyond the redzone. So in each case, the games looked very offensive, but the reality was they reflected a more defensive ACC typical game. Handicapping is about what is more likely to happen, than what is less likely, and it is certainly less likely we see the same 69 points in the 2 games come from long distance. It has given us a huge boost and an inflated total, and I'm going under in this one.

The New England Patriots offense a couple years ago with Tom Brady was scary. They seemed to score on almost every drive. This offense with Brady, that hasn't thrown a ball in a year in a meaningful game, won't be as scary, at least early. The Patriots have been more of an under team when the chalk reaches the 10.5 or higher range, as they have played 6 of the last 8 under, and in the same range, they have been 6-1 under at home. Buffalo has a long history as a road dog of playing to the under to a mark of 29-14. These teams playing in New England also have a long history of playing to the under as the under is now 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in New England, and the under is also 19-7 in their last 26 meetings overall. I will play this one to go under the total.

The Detroit Lions finished last season with a perfect 4-0 preseason, only to wind up becoming the first team in NFL history to take the collar for the entire regular season, not a single win. The Saints certainly have a high powered offense, but when you get into totals of this magnitude, it generally takes 2 offenses to push it over, especially in week one, when the offenses aren't sharp yet. The Saint offense averaged just 25.5ppg in their first 7 games, but managed almost a TD better in their last 9 at 31.6ppg. If you look at the Saints a year ago vs some lesser offenses, it became difficult for them to go over the total. They played a #0 ranked Detroit offense to an under, a #29 ranked Oakland offense to an under, and a #24 ranked Kansas City team to an under. I like this one to go under the total.

When you look at this UL Lafayette team, they were a very potent offensive team a year ago and finished ranked 16th in the country in yards per game at 451. They averaged 33.1 points per game in the process. The problem is they have to replace more offensive talent than anyone else in the Sun Belt. Tyrone Fenroy the teams all-time leading rusher is gone, as is QB Michael Desormeaux the Sun Belt's offensive player of the year, and wide reciever Jason Cherry, who caught 7 TD passes last year. Even last year, with an explosive offense they were grounded for 258 yards against conference king-pin Troy, and when they went up against Illinois, they were held under 300 as well. A Sun Belt team just doesn't replace 44 TD's and 3,600 yards overnight. The offense will be considerably down this season. The good news is the defense will be much better with 9 starters returning, and they are breking in a new kicker as well. Kansas St. struggles against Umass shows that they are going to have to fight for points themselves. Both of tese teams are going to try and run it at each other, and I just don't see this one breaking 50 points scored. I will go with the under in this one.

Looking at the Boston College Eagles, they are led by their defense, and have big question marks at QB. Last year they pounded the ball against Kent St. in a 21-0 win. The Eagles don't have the type of offense that is going to pile up points, and would rather get a lead, pound the ball, shorten the game, and let their defense do its thing. They have played 15 out of conference games against non-BCS conference teams the last 5 years, and have allowed an average of 8.7 points a game! Within those 15 games, are 5 shutouts, including an offensive Kent St. team last year, and 2 other MAC teams that did not get on the board. Kent St. already showed how much they miss Julian Edelman. Edelman threw for 1,820 yards, and ran for 1,305 last year, so replacing his 3,100 yards won't be easy, especially against the best defense they will see this season. It showed in their opener as Kent St. managed just an 18-0 win vs Coastal Carolina. They were held to 344 yards, and only generated 3,6 yards per rushing attempt. I like this one to fall under the total.

It is finally here, and the NFL season gets heated up with a bigtime matchup, as Pittsburgh plays host to Tennessee. The first glance of this one says defense, as the Titans were the #7 ranked defense in the entire NFL a year ago, while Pittsburgh finished #1. I'm not sure I'm buying the fact that Tennessee's defense was as good as the numbers a season ago, and I'm certainly expecting it to fall back this year. They will realize just how important Albert Haynesworth was when the season starts. Last year on the road Tennessee faced Cinn,KC,Blt,Chi,Jax,Det,Hou, and Indy. Those 8 teams ranked an average of 21st offensively, so the defense had very few challenges. Pittsburgh had all kinds of injury troubles on their offensive line, and at running back, and still had a productive offensive season. I expect them to be better this year. Here is a little known fact about Pittsburgh. This has always been a defensive team. The last 5 years have seen them finish 1st in yards allowed 3 times, and never lower than 9th, so they have been a top defense for quite sometime. That means they play a lot of games to posted totals in the 30s. The Steelers have played OVER in home games to a total posted in the 30s to a 28-8 mark or 78% of the time! They have also played over to a total in the 30s in 18 of their last 22 at home or 82% of the time. These teams have met many times over the years, and 5 of the last 6 have gone over the total. Looking at this series when played in Pittsburgh shows something very revealing. Since the 1991-92 season, or 18 years ago, these teams have met in Pittsburgh 9 times with a total set in the 30s, and all 9 went OVER the total. I'm seeing this one sailing over the total as well. OVER gets the call here.

Colorado went through a lot of offensive changes last year, attempting the no-huddle offense, but the problem was the strength of this team was not in the QB or recievers, it is and will continue to be the offensive line, running backs, and tight ends. That has led to the second scheme change in 2 years, and although the no-huddle will not be abandoned entirely, it won't be nearly as present as it was a year ago. That means this team is likely to utilize a short passing game, and a lot of running. Colorado St. made some strides a year ago under defensive coordinator Larry Kerr, as the linebacking corp, made more tackles than the safeties, and that defensive toughness should improve this year, and that will match well with the Buffalo attack. Colorado St. coach, said himself after sopring practice, that his team is farther away at QB and running back than he thought, so offensively expect the Rams to struggle early. This one has the makings of flying under a rather lofty total that has already dropped significantly from the opener at 54, dispite even action on both sides of the number. I like this one to go under the total.

The Tulsa Hurricanes were an offensive force a season ago, and lit up teams virtually everytime they took the field. The Golden Hurricane finished 2nd last season with 569ypg, and a team that averaged 47.2ppg. That will be nearly impossible to duplicate, as the Golden Hurricane must replace QB David Johnson, and RB Terrian Adams. The 2 accounted for over 5,000 yards, and 58 TDS. They also must replace their offensive coordinator, which means things might take awhile to get going here. They do return 8 on a suspect defense, that should improve some this season. Tulane was really an injury plagued team a year ago. The team that were beaten 101-13 in their last 2 games, was not representative of the talent level, but the level of depth, that was depleted. Remember this team lost at Alabama just 20-6 to open the season, and followed with a 28-24 loss on the road to East Carolina, and held LSU to 35 again on the road. A team that gave up just 21ppg in their first 4, gave up 41.3ppg in their last 8. We won't see the same Tulsa offense, breaking in a new QB, a new offensive coordinator, and a new running back. At the same time, Tulane will more resemble the team that opened last season, holding opponnets down. Offenses take time to gel, especially with a new QB. Since 2000, there have been 19 games with a total set at 60+ in the 1st week of the season, and the UNDER prevailed 14-5 or 74% of the time. All games averaged falling short of the total by 7.5 points, and in the 14 unders, they fell short by an average of 14.8ppg. When there is a home dog in a first week game, with a total of 60+, the under is 5-1. We already saw it last night with Oregon @ Boise St, an anticipated high scoring game, that ended 19-8 with a total set at 64.5. I expect this one to fall short of the total, and will play it to go UNDER the posted total.

There are several key components to this selection, and the most notable is the fact that Utah St. will now be coached by Gary Andersen. Andersen was the defensive coordinator and assistant head coach at Utah for the last 5 years. What he has done with this Utah St. team is putting an emphasis on a pressure based defense, that will be playing a lot of man-to-man in the secondary. That requires a lot of speed, so he has moved many offensive players to the defensive side of the ball, as he is afterall a defensive coach. He knows all the Utah schemes, and has a great familiarity with their team tendencies, so a definate advantage on defense. Utah St. is not a big scoring team, and Utah returns 7 on defense, from a game that saw Utah St. score 10 a year ago. Utah has suffered huge losses on offense, with their top 5 skill players gone, from RB,QB, to the top 3 recievers, so the domination of clock (39+ minutes from a year ago), is not likely to occur, and with a freshman QB, expect the offense to run more, and be a lot less risk taking. I will go with the under in this one.

These two teams have played 2 low scoring games, and most expect a defensive battle to take shape here. Baltimore has 12 players on this weeks injury report, and are really banged up, especially on defense. Samari Rolle is listed as doubtful, and Ed Reed was limited in practice this week. Derrick Mason, and Mark Clayton are listed as doubtful, Mason did not practice all week., and either did linebacker Terrell Suggs, and Antwan Barnes is out for sure. The Steelers are 100% healthy. The Steelers have always been a defensive oriented team, but in their 6 postseason games since 2001, all 6 have gone over, and since 1995, the over has been 9-2 when they play at home in the post-season. Taking a look at games that are supposed to be defensive, the Steelers home playoff game with a total of 41 or less, have gone 8-0 to the OVER. Games with exceptionally low totals (34-37), where a team scored more points the last week than the total for their game is set at this week ( the Steelers scored 35 last week, the entire total this week is 34), the OVER is 13-1!!! The only loss was the NE vs Buffalo game earlier this year, when the wind was so high it was blowing the goal-posts around. This one may look low scoring but I'm playing it to go over the total.

The Arizona Cardinal offense has produced 31.3ppg vs suspect defenses, those not rated in the top 10. They have proceeded to score 19.5ppg vs teams rated in the top 10 on defense, and have averaged less than 300 yards a game in these 6 games. The eagles strength is their pass defense, which has not allowed a TD pass in 24 quarters, or 6 consecutive games, which certainly negates the Cardinals strength. The Eagle offense, with a less than 100% Westbrook is going to rely more on the defense, and it is also an offense that throws donfield a lot less than in the past. The Cards Warner is going to be feeling the heat, as the Eagles pass rush is going to make it hard for him to go deep. The Cards have run for just 2.8ypc against the top 6 defenses, and vs the last 4 in case you think their running game has rebounded, they have totalled 135 yards on 47 carries. This total is set too high, and I'm playing this one to go under the total.

TRENDS:

TOTALS OF 42.5-49 UNDER is 70-32 68.6% when a team is revenging a loss where opponent scored 28+

UNDER is 28-9 75.7% WHEN A team has won by double-digits on the road (PHILA) vs a team off a road win

PHILA 7-1 UNDER this season as a 3.5-9.5 FAVORITE, and 16-7 UNDER as FAVORITE last 2 years

PHILA under Coach Reid is 24-12 UNDER AS A ROAD FAVORITE

This one opened much higher and was bet down to a much lower level crossing some key numbers. Most thought the weather would be an issue here, but the reality is it won't be, so there is value here. The Giants were at 11-1 and had just 1 meaningful game from that point on, and they beat Carolina, and dropped the other 3. They are a different team with Brandon Jacobs in the lineup where their rushing yards jump from 3.9ypc without him in the lineup to 5.2ypc with him. If you look at this Giant team from week 2 to their last meaningful game, which was against Washington, and one more with Carolina, they averaged 30.8ppg in those 12 games. They also scored 21+ in all but the Monday Night Cleveland debacle. The Eagles, behind a surging McNabb, have produced 28.5ppg in their last 6, and that includes a no-show effort vs the Washington Redskins, where they scored just 3 points. The other 5 they have actually averaged 33.6ppg. A healthy Jacobs led the Giants to 219 rushing yards in their first game, while in their second meeting he was injured after posting 5.2ypc on just 10 attempts. The other Giant backs were held to 36 yards on 14 carries in his absence. This one certainly has the chance to be a lot more offensive than most think, and I'll back the over here.

This one gets a lot of talk on the defensive side of the ball, and why not, as these teams have been top notch all season. I think this one surprses many by offering more scoring than most expect. The defenses in this game get so much attention, that there is a lot of under the radar stuff going on here, that many overlook. The San Diego Chargers led the AFC with 7 games putting up 30 points or more on the season. Here comes the surprise. Do you know who finished 2nd? How about the Baltimore Ravens, and the Tennessee Titans tied with 6 each! While these teams are not known as offensive teams, they have been better than most realize. There is one simple reason, and it is offensive efficiency. The Titans are #6 in the league scoring a point for every 13.38 yards gained, while the Ravens are #7 at a point every 13.46 yards gained. Here is the next surprise. The Ravens were getting out-scored 15.6ppg to 17.4ppg, and the Ravens looked no better than their 2007-08 team that finished 5-11. Then the light came on. The game slowed down for Flacco, and he has since thrown 13 TD passes and just 5 INT's. The biggest difference was that it electrified the Raven offense, from a team that averaged 16.2ppg in 16 games last year, and 15.4ppg the first 5 this year, to a team that scored 27.8ppg in their last 12. To put that in perspective, everyone loves the Arizona Cardinals offense, but the Ravens 27.8ppg has outscored the Cardinal offense that produced 26.7ppg on the season, and would be ranked #2 to the 28.9ppg put up by the Saints. The loss to Tennessess saw the Ravens run the ball vs the Titans, something few teams have been able to do. They rushed for 115 yards in that game. The Raven offense converted 7 of 14 on 3rd down situations, the difference being, the turnover prone Flacco (2 INT's, and a fumble in that meeting), has matured. The Titans were 12-1 in their first 13 games, and did not have a meaningful game from that point on in the season. After thise 13 games the offense was producing 25.5ppg!!! That would place them at #9 in the league. The next point is this. The divisional round of the NFL playoffs since it has existed, has seen 10 games posted with a total of 34.5 or less. Those games have gone over the total in 8 of 10, or 80% of the time. There has not been a game with less than 30 points scored of these 10. The average points scored has been 43.6ppg. So many of these look defensive, but turn out otherwise. This one goes over the total.

The Uconn Huskies are a #10 ranked defensive team, and the Bulls will go nowhere vs this defense, but the problem is the Uconn offense is completely inept, and is based solely on the running of Donald Brown. Brown gained 1,828 yards on the season, which amazingly is more than 3 QB's on the Huskies passed for combined. The Huskie passing attack is about as bad as it gets with just 4 TD passes, and 17 INT's. As teams learned how to play them, they stalled Huskie drive after Huskie drive. The Huskies have not scored a TD inside the redzone in 16 quarters of football, and on the season have scored 13 or less 6 times. When they have scored it was the defense, as they scored 39 vs Syracuse's horrible defense, but 16 of them came on a safety,punt return, and INT return. They scored 40 on Cincinnati, but it took 6 fumbles and 3 INT's by the Cincinnati offense, that allowed Uconn 20 4th quarter points. Buffalo scored 48 on Ball St. but Ball St. fumbled 4 times, 2 for Bull TD's, and had 2 INT's to go with it for 6 turnovers. Buffalo played in the MAC which has no defenses. The top defense was N. Illinois, who Buffalo did not play. Nine teams in the MAc have a defense ranked 76th or lower, with 6 at 90 or worse, so the Buffalo offense has yet to see anything close to this Huskie defense. They played Pittsburgh, the only team even close to Uconn in defense, and scored 16 points, none inside the redzone. This one goes UNDER the total.

Kentucky suffered a bunch of injuries, that kept them down this season, and any success in this game is going to take an inspired effort by their defense. E. Carolina suffered a similar fate, and I expect them to try to do the same in this one. I expect this to be a game of field position, with lots of stalled drives. The inkuries and lack of depth on the Wildcats had this team worn out by season's end where they allowed 33.7ppg over their last 3, while not allowing more than 24 to anyone other than Florida, who is in a different catergory all together, previous to that. They allowed just 12ppg in those previous 8 outside the Gator game. E. Carolina held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 21 or less, the exception being 24 to Tilsa, a team that averaged 47.4ppg. Two well below average offenses, ECU at #87 and KY at #106, and two above average defenses, ECU #44 and KY #38 spells under the total in this one

Was waiting for this one to cross a key number before getting it locked in. I anticipated the public to bet this one up, as has been their propensity for years. This is a Cincinnati team that held 11 of 13 opponents under 24 points, and the only 2 going over that number was Oklahoma, and Connecticut. Connecticut converted most of those points on a bad day for the Cincinnati offense, that fumbled 6 times, losing 3 of them, and having 3 INT's. The Hokie defense has been on the improve all season, and has long been the calling card for Frank Beamer coached teams. The Hokies have allowed just 4 TD's in their last 5 games, while their offense has managed just 8. The Hokies have held 9 opponents to 17 or less, despite a schedule that included 9 Bowl teams. Both these teams bring top defenses, with lackluster offenses, and I like this one to go under the total.

This Nebraska team can score in bunches, but the defense has given it back far to often. Nebraska has topped the 30 point mark in 10 of their 12 games on the season, but it is a defense that has also allowed 30+ in 6 of their last 9. The Tigers have faced some bad offensive teams, and compiled some apparently decent defensive numbers. The problem is 2 games vs Citadel, and South Carolina St., and a schedule that shows 7 other teams ranked 76th or worse, and just 2 teams in the 50s. Nebraska is ranked 12th, the best offense they will have seen all year. The top 2 they have faced this season, Alabama scored 34 with their #56 offense, and Florida St. scored 41 with their #57 ranked offense. This one soars over the total!!

Iowa stacks up as a team that averages over 30ppg, but it just shows you how misleading stats can be. It is an Iowa team that reached 30 points in a game just 4 times, and 2 of those were vs Florida International, and Maine, and a 3rd coming vs Indiana and their 108th ranked defense. They had one big scoring game against a good defense and that was 38 vs Wisconsin, but they only gained 375 yards in that one. Their other 7 gams saw thm average just 19.6ppg. South Carolina's defense carried their season. They allowed 24 or less points to 9 teams, with Clemson, and Florida the only 2 to score more. Both these teams have top 10 defenses, and neither has an offense that is going to run away in this one, and pile the points on their opponent. I like this one to go under the total.

The Vanderbilt Commodores started the season 5-0 and were one of the biggest surprises of the season. It all came unraveled for them from that point on, as they managed just 1 more win to finish a disappointing 6-6 on the season. The offense that produced 30ppg in their first 4, was grounded the rest of the season. Outside of a 31 point performance against Kentucky, the Dores failed to top the 14 mark in their other 7 games. The offense has generated just 25.3.8ypg in the last 8, they are converting just 32.2% of 3rd downs, rushing for just 3.8ypc, and completing 47.8% of their passes, at just 4.75ypp, and have thrown 13 INT's, or 1 every 16 passes. I don't think this offense can get healthy against the 6th rated defense in the country. What is remarkable, is despite their offensive woes, and their defense having to spend extensive time on the field, the Commodore defense ranks 29th in the country, which tells me it is even better than that, due to the poor offense. The Eagles offense is not much better, as they are getting just over 300ypg themselves, and this one should become a game of field position, and FG's. Boston College does not have a reliable kicker, as their longest made FG this season has been just 36 yards, nor is their punting game good, averaging just 38 yards per punt, and no BC player has run back a punt or kickoff this season. Vandy has been a bit better in the FG department hitting from as long as 48 yards out, but they have only managed 10 made FG's all season. They have not run a kickoff back this season for more than 39 yards, so not much of a threat there, and their punter averages just 40 yards a punt. This one looks like the defenses, and defensive special teams play dominate, and the FG kickers are bound to miss as well. I'm going with the UNDER here.

This is a great matchup, with a great storyline, as 2 teams that were so improbable to be in this game, are matched up with each other. Rutgers opened their season by getting humiliated on national TV by Fresno St. 24-7. They proceeded to go 0-5, if you exclude non FBS Morgan St. QB Mike Teel was having a decent season moving the ball, but threw 7 INT's. The Rutgers defense had forced exactly 0 turnovers through those 5 games. Teel's numbers were 91-166 982 yards 7 INT's 5.9ypp. From that point on the light went on. His numbers went from that to 119-175 68% 1,889 20 TD's 5 INT's 10.8ypp. Needless to say a Rutgers offense grounded to 13.4ppg in the first 5, suddenly went to 46.2ppg in the last 5. teel went from taking a seat on the bench during one game, to putting up Heisman numbers the rest of the way, and noone came within 18 points of them over the last 5. North carolina is a similar story. They were just 1-6 excluding a win vs William & Mary, and they proceeded to win their last 4, and cover their last 7. An offense that was generating 17.2ppg, suddenly was averaging 31.8ppg in the last 4 wins, and almost 40 in the last 2. QB Russell Wilson did not throw a pass the first 2 weeks as the QB duties were shared by Evans, and Beck. Wilson got a chance in week 3, but his 10-21 for 92 yards and an INT, wasn't very impressive. He started the following week, and went 21-31 for 210 yds 3 TDS and no int's. Beck got the call the following week, and played himself back on the bench, by throwing 3 INT's. Wilson got the job and kept it, and his last 8 starts resulted in the Wolfpack going 8-0 ATS!!! He threw for 2 TD's in each of his last 6 starts, and in his last 8 starts he threw 16 TD passes and get this, 0 INT'S!!!! We have a pair of offenses that are clicking at an unstoppable pace, and a total that is represented by two average teams. Neither defense is potent, and they both are coming from conferences dominated by defense, but now we have 2 scoring competent teams, the likes of the Big-12 with a line that doesn't reflect it, and this one is going over the total.

Did a lot of research on this one, and I'll try and capture why I am so bullish on this total. Louisiana Tech has been considered a high powered offense all season. Lately, that is hard to argue as they posted an average of 34ppg in their last 5 games. I think the numbers are very fraudelent here, and I'll show you how statistics can lie. Louisiana Tech had half their schedule vs teams that rank #77 on defense or lower. The average of 5 of these teams was #95 out of 120 teams, with the 6th being a div-2 team. Their offense flourished in these games. The numbers show 424 yards a game, which would rank #25, and 6.14 yards a play. They averaged 39.3ppg in these 6 games, which would have put them at #13 in points scored per game. Pretty impressive numbers. They also had 5 games vs teams that were in the top half of all NCAAF defenses in yards allowed, and one other game, way over their head vs Kansas. Those 6 games saw Louisiana Tech average 280 yards a game, which would of ranked #114, and 11.2ppg which would have ranked dead last! The 6.14 yards per play was reduced to 4.28. Northern Illinois played in an offensive conference, yet finished with a defense ranked #21 in the country. That puts N. Illinois in the group of teams that held LA Tech to 11.2ppg. N. Illinois is a very limited offensive team themselves that if the numbers prevail here, will be called upon to put up 38 to put this game over the total. That is an unlikely scenerio for a team that scored 17 or less 5 times, and averaged under 20 in the 4 games they faced teams heading to Bowls. I like this one to go way under the total, and it is my BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR!

the weather conditions in Buffalo will be horrendous for this one in terms of the total. Much like Cleve/Cinn last week that saw winds prevailing in the 20s and gsting to 40, this one will be even higher. The wind profile for this game calls for the time period of 1-4 PM which is gametime, to be sustained at 30 MPH with gusts as high as 50 MPH. It will certainly put a damper on both the kicking games and passing games in this one. The total opened at 43, and has bet down by speculators of bad weather in Buffalo, and now that we are within 48hrs of gametime, the confidence in the forecast is very high. I am going with a system that has hit in the 70% range here, and playing this one UNDER.

It's no secret the Oakland offense is putrid. They have trouble putting the ball in the end-zone vs good defenses. Two weeks ago vs New England was a fluke. The only other times this team has scored more than 18 points in a game was against defenses that ranked 19th or worse. This is the 2nd best defense they will have faced this season, and I'll be surprised if they even get in the end-zone. The NFC Soth teams have been a beast at home going 26-3 on the season, and Oakland managed 0 points in Atlanta and 6 in Carolina. They are travelling across the country to play a meaningless game for them. I see this as a short game, with the Bucs offense doing a lot of running, and the Oakland defense hasn't stopped the run all season. This one goes under.

Central Michigan has been a good offensive team all season, but those numbers improved as the season progressed. They averaged 25.8ppg through the first half of the season, and 34.7ppg through the second half of the season. The problem is the defense was also getting progressively worse, as their defense allowed 27.8ppg in the first half, but that number grew to 33.7ppg in the second half of the season. Florida Atlantic followed a similar trail, as they scored just 19.3ppg in the first half, which was followed by 35ppg in the second half, and on the season allowed about 30ppg. These teams have not been able to stop a good offense all season, and both these units have peaked as the season has gone on offensively. This one should well be a shootout and I'll back the OVER here.

I've written articles on my research regarding the efficient market in sports wagering. I have also indicated that the research also found times when certain sports wagering markets reach inefficiency. This is one of those times that the market goes inefficient, and the indicators present for this game are such that the winning probability over a 25 year period are 65-70% in the situation present for this game. This is not a handicapped game, but in a sense it is better than one. This fits the criteria of a high percentage yield, and it is a very strong play.

I've written articles on my research regarding the efficient market in sports wagering. I have also indicated that the research also found times when certain sports wagering markets reach inefficiency. This is one of those times that the market goes inefficient, and the indicators present for this game are such that the winning probability over a 25 year period are 65-70% in the situation present for this game. This is not a handicapped game, but in a sense it is better than one. This fits the criteria of a high percentage yield, and it is a very strong play.

I've written articles on my research regarding the efficient market in sports wagering. I have also indicated that the research also found times when certain sports wagering markets reach inefficiency. This is one of those times that the market goes inefficient, and the indicators present for this game are such that the winning probability over a 25 year period are 65-70% in the situation present for this game. This is not a handicapped game, but in a sense it is better than one. This fits the criteria of a high percentage yield, and it is a very strong play.This has reached GAME OF THE MONTH STATUS, and is a 5***** PLAY!!!

I've written articles on my research regarding the efficient market in sports wagering. I have also indicated that the research also found times when certain sports wagering markets reach inefficiency. This is one of those times that the market goes inefficient, and the indicators present for this game are such that the winning probability over a 25 year period are 65-70% in the situation present for this game. This is not a handicapped game, but in a sense it is better than one. This fits the criteria of a high percentage yield, and it is a very strong play.

I've written articles on my research regarding the efficient market in sports wagering. I have also indicated that the research also found times when certain sports wagering markets reach inefficiency. This is one of those times that the market goes inefficient, and the indicators present for this game are such that the winning probability over a 25 year period are 65-70% in the situation present for this game. This is not a handicapped game, but in a sense it is better than one. This fits the criteria of a high percentage yield, and it is a very strong play.

I think the more motivated team to be here has to be Colorado St. Fresno St. entered this season thinking they could wind up in a BCS Bowl if everything turned up aces. This certainly isn't where they thought they'd be. Colorado St. on the otherhand is thrilled to be in this one, as they needed wins in each of their last 2 games to get here. The defense has not performed all year for Fresno St. Here is an amazing stat to show the defensive short-comings of Fresno St. There was 4 teams on their schedule this season that scored more points against Fresno St. than anyone else on their schedule. Those teams were Boise St. 61 (no more than 49 against anyone else), Idaho 32 (no more than 28 against anyone else), Toledo 54 ( no more than 41 against anyone else), and UCLA 31 (no more than 28 against anyone else, not even Washington St.). They had 2 other games where the opponent came within 1 possession of their highest offensive output of the year. The defense finished with a rank of 89 out of 120 teams, which is generous, because their first 2 games they held teams to a total of 20 points, from that point on it has been 34.4ppg. Colorado St. is one of the worst teams in the country getting to the QB. They have recorded just 6 sacks on the season to rank dead last of 120 NCAA teams. They are als #119 in tackles for a loss. Both these teams have kickers with big legs, as Colorado St has connected from 52, and Fresno from 58. Fresno St is one of the best teams in the country returning punts and kickoffs, and Colorado St. has done well there to. This one has the potential to be a shootout, and I'm backing the over here.

many will look to this one as an under game, with two of the best defenses in the NFL clashing. There are a lot of things that dictate otherwise for this one. Baltimore when they reach this stage of the season has been prodominately an over team. and the last 4 times these teams have met, believe it or not the games all went over the total. The Ravens from week 11 on have played over the last 7 times the total was set at 35 or less. What gets lost in the shuffle here is what the Baltimore offense has become. The Ravens are averaging 30ppg over the last 8, or for half of the season. Let's not forget these teams played to a 43 point game before the Baltimore offense started clicking. The Pittsburgh offense is finally healthy, and over the last 3 games has averaged 26.7ppg. This total is based on raw numbers that make the offenses look like less than they are but things have changed for both teams, and I expect this one to go over the total

This pick is being added as a special weather play. The winds in Kansas City are above my threshhold for a wind weather play that automatically kicks in under certain criteria. They have and will be met for this game played in Kansas City this week, and I am adding it as a special weather play. I wanted to wait as long as I could without losing line value, so I am going forward with this one now, and would suggest you place your wager before word gets out as this total will fall as mre people look at the situation tomm. Get on this as soon as you possibly can

This game sets up as a market inefficiency game for a couple reasons. One is a weather situation that has reached a threshhold that has produced close to 70% under these circumstances. Another is a game situation that fits into a 183-117 ATS situation or 61% winners.

This is strictly a market inefficiency game that has produced 70% winners under these game conditions in the last 20 years.

The Chicago Bears have long had a defensive label, but that has vanished in recent times. The Bears have suddenly become a distinct over team, and a once proud defense is just a ghost of the past. The Bears defense has allowed 20 points or more in 9 of 13 games on the season. That is despite of playing 8 of 13 games vs offenses ranked in the bottom half of the league. They have played just 1 offense in the last 7 weeks that is ranked higher than #17, and have given up 24.1ppg. The only decent offense they played against was Gree Bay who put up 37. This Bear defense has allowed 25.5ppg to offenses that are in the top half of the league, and New Orleans is the best of the best, sitting at #1. The Bears offense has produced 20+ points in 9 of 13 games, and 23+ in 8 of 13. This is despite a schedule that has put them up against defenses that rank in the top half of the league in 8 of 13 games. The Saints defense ranks #23, and when the Bears have played defenses ranked 23 or lower they have averaged 30.3ppg. The Saints offense has posted 20+ in 12 of 13 games on the season, and 24+ in 10 of 13. What the Saints offense takes, the defense gives away as 11 of 13 teams have also scored 20+ on the Saint defense. This total would have gone over in 10 of the Saints 13 games this season. The Saints have played over to a 10-2 mark in their last 12 vs teams with a winning record, and with a line of +3 to -3 they have played OVER in 16 of 22. The Saints last 5 games vs the NFC North have all gone over, and so have 26 of the last 39 vs the NFC North. The Bears have played 6 of their last 7 when they are a 3 point or less home favorite to the OVER, and as I mentioned above, this once proud defensive team has now played 18 of their last 24 to the OVER. Lots of signals here that say this one beats the total on the plus side, and the weather is supposed to be a non-factor. The OVER is a 4**** play in this one.

The redskins make the short trip to Baltimore for NFL Sunnday Night action. The weather conditions will be horrible for this one as steady wins in the 30 MPH range will be gusting up to 50 MPH at times, and the kicking games, and passing games will surely suffer. This qualifies as an inefficient market play for me, as determined by these adverse weather conditions. Games such as this have had a track record of producing over 70% winners in the past. It is my Sunday Night NFL GOY!!! The game will go under the posted total.

The Buffalo Bulls will square off against the Ball St. Cardinals for the MAC Championship. The Bulls have been impressive of late, and every game they have played in the MAC , they have been in right to the end. They have a 20 point win, and a 13 point win, and each of their other 6 MAC contests have ended 4 quarters with the teams within 3 points of each other. The Cards have been an entirely different story. The Cards won 7 of their 8 MAC games by 15 or more, and averaged winning by 21. What is most noteable however is the Cards score on everyone. They have reaced 40 in 6 of their games on the season, and in half their MAC games, and have not been held to under 31 in any contest. The Bulls scored 21+ in every MAC game this year, and topped the 40 point mark 3 times this season. The Bulls in fact have scored 32 or more in 4 of their last 5 MAC games. These teams have met 4 times, and have never produced less than 62 points, and have averaged 71ppg. The numbers these teams have put up are big despite playing in snow, rain, and outdoor circumstances sometimes inhibiting scoring. They will be playing this one indoors on the fast field turf at Ford Field, and I epect a lot of scoring, and this one going over the total.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a very hot team right now offensively. They are making one big play after another. QB Mike Teel has had a 4 game stretch of 81-119 68.1% good for 1,290 yards, 13 TD's 5 INT's. That is nearly as many yards as he had thrown for the entire season's first 7 games. That is 10.84 yards per attempt. While it may appear that the Knights are playing great defense as well, the 2 games vs comparable competition, Pitt, and S. Florida, they actually gave up more 1st downs than they generated themselves 45-40. It is unlikely Louisville will be able to slow down this Rutgers offense, as the Cardinals have allowed 20+ to every team on their schedule that plays in the FBS, and their recent 4 games, shows a tiring defense that has allowed at least 28 a game, and has averaged yielding 33ppg. The Louisville offense has also scored 20+ in every game, but against Pittsburgh, where they stopped themselves with 5 turnovers. Rutgers is averaging 450 yards and 42ppg in their last 4, while Louisville is giving up 33ppg in their last 4. If Rutgers gets to 31, which by all indications seems quite likely, then if Louisville does what they have done all year and top the 20 mark, this one goes over easily. These teams played a 79 point shootout the last time they met. They have met 3 times over the past 3 years, and all 3 exceeded this total. This is my NCAAF GAME OF THE MONTH!!!!

The Ball St. Cardinals are one game away from posting a perfect regular season. They have done it with a balanced offense that has produced no fewer than 31 points in any MAC game this season, and no less than 38 at home. W, Michigan is the top offensive team the Cardinals will have seen in the MAC this season, ranking at #25. While last week we saw Ball St. and CMU go off with a total of 61, we have a similar situation here with a total a TD less? It is likely due to the oddsmakers using that game as a barometer, as it finished at 55. Ball St. is home for this one, and their offense has actually been better at home, so if anything this number should be up from the 61, not down. Remember also that game was played with some snow, and quite breezy. This one figures to play with no precipitation, and lighter winds (forecast at 12MPH at gametime 10MPH by games end). W. Michigan has scored no less than 27 points in any MAC game, except a weather hampered game vs Temple. Their games against the best offenses they have played in the MAC vs Buffalo and C. Michigan produced 62, and 66 points. I expected this one to be in the same range as last week's game vs C. Michigan, so there is about a TD worth of value here. I would also not be surprised if Ball St. has a chance to score late, they will for style points. This one goes over.

The Uconn Huskies will face a fading S. Florida team in Tampa tonight. The Huskies are a top defensive team, and have actually been about a half yard better defensively vs the offensive averages they have played. The S. Florida offense has been slightly above average, but I do expect them to have trouble moving the ball. Offensively the Huskies are virtaully a run only team, regardless of who is at QB, which means they will have a difficult time exploiting the weak link of the Bull defense, which is their secondary. The Bulls are a very tough team against the run, which should limit Uconn's offensive effectiveness behind the running of Brown. The Bulls have extra incentive here, as the Huskies beat them in the wind, cold and rain last season. I like this one to go below the posted total

I'll start this by saying I have examined extensively the weather forecast in Buffalo, and the weather will not be a factor in this game. many here the nmention of the word snow, and the total begins to dive. A game that opened at 42.5 is as of this writing 40.5, and falling. the Cleveland Browns are off of consecutive games allowing more points in each, than any game they have played until these last 2. At the same time the offense, which managed 10.5ppg in the first 4, has surged to 25.2ppg in their last 5. The Bills defense has struggled as the injuries mount. Their top pass rusher Aaron Schobel has missed the last 4 games, and will miss tonight as well. Safety Donte Whitner missed the Bills last game, and is questionable tonight, and corner, Ashton youboty is already done for the season. The Bills injuries in the secondary, as wel as the loss of Schobel, further hampers their ability to blitz, and put pressure on the QB, and on the season they have recorded just 14 sacks. That will go up against a Brown offensive line that has allowed just 11 sacks all season, so the browns should move the chains here. The Cleveland defense has been horrible, and Edwards should find room throwing the ball. The Bills offensive struggles can be related to Lynch, sick with the flu, and Edwards 5 INT's, and 3 fumbles in his last 3, should have big numbers here. Without Lynch grinding out yards the Bills have been in bad down and distance situations the past 3 weeks, and Lynch should find holes in the Cleveland front, and things will be different. Public has bet this one down, especially with the memory of the 8-0 final last year in the snow, wind, and cold in Cleveland. This one will be quite different, and I'm going OVER the total here.

Dallas will get Tony Romo back, but how effective will he be, and what kind of game plan will they use against the Redskins? I would think they will ease him back in, and not take chances downfield. The redskins are going to be without Portis, and that will likely lead to a controlled passing game, that is utilized like the run. Often when a key offensive player goes down, the defense steps up and I expect the Redskins to do just that. This is a division rivalry game, and those have a tendency to play closer to the vest, and since both these teams need the game, expect points to be at a premium. I'll go UNDER here.

I have written several articles relating to market inefficiencies, and this game is now a qualifier. The weather conditions in New York tomm. call for prevailing sustained winds of 20 MPH, with gusts as high as 40 MPH. What makes this even better is the prevailing direction of the wind. The wind direction will be out of the west, which means their will be no advantage going either way, as it will be a cross-wind. That will not give either team an advantage going with the wind, or disadvantage going against the wind. It will be a disadvantage to both offenses. Both teams are going to have to rely on their running games, and that is the strength of both defenses. I would suggest to get action on this game early, as the total will tumble. MY INTER-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR!!!