Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm running late OVER is the play

***CORRECTION*** My writeup was correct that we are taking the Over in this game. I unintentionally selected the Under in the first e-mail sent out.

Ohio, U. has gone for over 30 points in 7 of their 10 games on the season, and scored an impressive 35 againsdt a very good Temple defense. Tyler tettleton is having a big year with 22 TD's to just 6 INT's, and the Bobcats can score quickly. Good passing offenses have done in Bowling Green allowing 45 to W. Michigan, 55 to W. Virginia and 45 to N. Illinois. falcons uuting up 26.6ppg at home will be enough to swend this one over the total

No time for a writeup under is the play

142-94-7 ATS total system, OVER is the play

Due to the fact I'm moving no writeup for this one but the play is on the OVER

Weather play heavy snow with whiteout conditions

Cluster wager on the under

There is an early illusion painted in this game, as Tennessee has played better than the teams they have faced, and could easily be 2-0 on the season, while Denver has been outplayed in a pair of games. What is notable is that Denver played with out 2 of their best defenders last week and Elvis Dumervil, and Champ bailey might both play this week. denver has been better on defense than a year ago, whike tennessee has been very good defensively. This game fits into a huge situation that says under, and that is my call.

Cluster system play on the under

Cluster wager on the under

MREAST cluster wager #4 on the under

MREAST cluster #5 on the under

The Cincinnati Bearcats had an easy game last week as they crushed hapless Akron 59-14. That brings them into this one well rested against NC State who has struggled against some marginal competition. The Wolf Pack is 0-3 ATS in their first 3 games. QB Russell Wilson has been released from his scholarship, and the Wolfpack has not had a 1000 yard rusher since 2001! Cincinnati should be in the thick of things in the Big east, as despite last year's 2-5 mark, they actually outgained their Big East opponents by over 35 yards a game. Zack Callaros is back to run the offense and the defense has 10 starters returning, facing a new QB on the road for NC State. Cincinnati is a tough place to play, especially for teams that haven't played here as they are 22-1 straight up in their last 23 non-conference home games. Last year these teams both had better offenses and they played to just 49 points at NC State. I also have a situation that is 84-40-4 to the under live for this game. I like this one under the total.

The St. Louis Rams won all of 6 games from 2008-10 and lasy year topped that combined 3 season mark with 7 wins. This is a team that was outscored in the 2009-10 season by 26 total points, and they shaved that to 39 last year. They averaged 8ppg more last year, and should eclipse that mark this season. The Giants averaged 24,6ppg a year ago whilke the defense, once the backbone of the team has allowed 24ppg oer their last 9 regular season games, and opened the season allowing 28 to Washington, a team that scored 21 against them in 2 games a year ago. This game fits a situation that has produced an 82-42 mark to the over, and I'm playing this one over the total.

I have a week 2 under system that is live in this game. Unders are more prone than ever in week 2, simply because players last week had more contact than they have had in almost a year. It tends to leave them bumped, stiff, and bruised from week 1, as their bodies begin to get accustomed to the contact. This works well when you have an anticipated defensive game, with a relatively low total. It has been 89-48 to the under the last 20 years in the NFL, and under is the play in this one.

I have a week 2 under system that is live in this game. Unders are more prone than ever in week 2, simply because players last week had more contact than they have had in almost a year. It tends to leave them bumped, stiff, and bruised from week 1, as their bodies begin to get accustomed to the contact. This works well when you have an anticipated defensive game, with a relatively low total. It has been 89-48 to the under the last 20 years in the NFL, and under is the play in this one.

I have a week 2 under system that is live in this game. Unders are more prone than ever in week 2, simply because players last week had more contact than they have had in almost a year. It tends to leave them bumped, stiff, and bruised from week 1, as their bodies begin to get accustomed to the contact. This works well when you have an anticipated defensive game, with a relatively low total. It has been 89-48 to the under the last 20 years in the NFL, and under is the play in this one.

MREAST NCAAF TOTAL DOMINATOR 89-48 ATS and the play here is on the under.

MREAST NCAAF TOTAL DOMINATOR 89-48 ATS and is calling for the UNDER in this game.

Sometimes it is easy to watch the New England Patriots rack up the points and see this one as a shootout. I see it differently. The Dolphins have problems on offense but can play defense, especially at home. The last 2 years just one of the 4 games played between these clubs has made it over this total. looking back since 2003-04 covering 8 seasons, not aingle Dopphin season opener has topped this total. This is another situation where the 114-62 system on the under applies. Under is my call.

Late system addition, Play the under

late system play addition no wrieup. Play the under

I have uncovered a situation that has never lost in the NFLX, as far back as my data goes. This week presents a great opportunity as I go with a very strong situational play.

I have uncovered a situation that has never lost in the NFLX, as far back as my data goes. This week presents a great opportunity as I go with a very strong situational play.

The Indianapolis Colts have a Hall of Fame QB in Peyton Manning but he is aging, and off surgery, and in game 1 I would exoect the Colts to be less proficient on the offensive end, especially on the road. manning may not play at all, and did not take a snap in the pre-season. Colts have played 5 of their last 6 openers to the under. This is another game that fits a 114-62 situation to the under, and I'm calling for this one to stay under the total.

This is a late system play addition, under is the play

late edition system play, on the under

I do a lot of datamining with a detailed and extensive dataase. I look for large situations that have held tried and true for decades, not just situations on a good run. By doing this it insures the integrity of the situation, as in this case, it has worked for an extensive period of time. The results are incredibly good. This sytem is a powerful 84-40-6 ATS which is a phenominal winning rate of 67.7%. The play in this one is on the under in this game.

I do a lot of datamining with a detailed and extensive dataase. I look for large situations that have held tried and true for decades, not just situations on a good run. By doing this it insures the integrity of the situation, as in this case, it has worked for an extensive period of time. The results are incredibly good. This system is a powerful 84-40-6 ATS which is a phenominal winning rate of 67.7%. The play in this one is on the under in this game.

I do a lot of datamining with a detailed and extensive dataase. I look for large situations that have held tried and true for decades, not just situations on a good run. By doing this it insures the integrity of the situation, as in this case, it has worked for an extensive period of time. The results are incredibly good. This system is a powerful 84-40-6 ATS which is a phenominal winning rate of 67.7%. The play in this one is on the under in this game.

I do a lot of datamining with a detailed and extensive dataase. I look for large situations that have held tried and true for decades, not just situations on a good run. By doing this it insures the integrity of the situation, as in this case, it has worked for an extensive period of time. The results are incredibly good. This system is a powerful 84-40-6 ATS which is a phenominal winning rate of 67.7%. The play in this one is on the under in this game.

I do a lot of datamining with a detailed and extensive dataase. I look for large situations that have held tried and true for decades, not just situations on a good run. By doing this it insures the integrity of the situation, as in this case, it has worked for an extensive period of time. The results are incredibly good. This system is a powerful 84-40-6 ATS which is a phenominal winning rate of 67.7%. The play in this one is on the under in this game.

The Green Bay packers look to be loaded again this year, with additional weapons in jermichael Finley, and Ryan Grant, both key offensive components missing from a year ago. lost in the Superbowl glee, is the fact the Packers offense was held to 22ppg over their last 6 regular season games, and scored 20 or less in 7 games. What also should be known is the Packers held opponents to 20 or less in 12 games, and the defense is better than the offense. The Saints offense which can be explosive was held to 20 or less 7 times last year. saints also 17-7 to the under as a dog from 3.5-10 last 24, while the Pack is on a 6-1 under run in week 1. I also have a huge situation on the under which has been 114-62. This one stays under the total.

The Pittsburgh Steelers had an anomolus defensive game vs the Ravens last week. They held Baltimore to 126 total yards, but allowed 24 points. That is a ridiculous 5.25 yards per point, which simply isn't a realistic expectation. The Steelers themselves were limited to 263 yards but scored 31. That means a pair of teams with a combined offensive output of less than 400 yards scored 55 points. Throw that one out, as it does not offer any predictive value on points scored, other than the fact that the Steeler defense is rugged and tough. The Jets bring a bit of their own savvy on defense, they just held the 2 top QB's in the NFL to a combined 38 points on the road. If you doubt that consider the fact that the last 3 opponents that have come to Pittsburgh when Troy Palamalu has been in the lineup have rushed 48 times for 130 yards, and passed 105 times with 6 INT's and 347 total yards at 3.3 yards per attempt. The Jets offense hasn't seen a lot of very good defenses but 9 points and no TD's vs Baltimore, and 0 points vs Green Bay open some eyes, and a Pittsburgh defense without Palamalu saw the offene sputter to 13. That is 3 games 3 top defenses and 22 points for the Jets. I look for this one to come in under the total.

is going to have a rather large impact on this game from a scoring standpoint. The winds will be out of the northwest. Northwest wind here means it will be blowing diagonally across the field, negating an advantage going in either direction, but will have a serious influence on both the kicking and passing games. Packers have played 7 of 8 on the road to the under and Philly 5-1-1 to the under in their last 7 as a playoff favorite. Teams that commited 4 or more turnovers in their last game playing at home in this one with a total of 42-49.5 are 180-115 to the under. Under gets the call.

The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.

The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.

Ohio St. is simply year after year the most consistent defensive team in NCAAF. That isn't just consistent, it is consistently great. The Buckeyes in their last 65 games have held teams to 7 points or less in 28 of them, that is 43% of the time teams are getting 1 score or less off their great defense. When you push that number up to 17 or less they have held 48 of their 65 opponents to 17 points or less, or 74% of the time. Last year in their Bowl game they held an Oregon team that generated 425 yards of offense per game to 17 points, and just 260 total yards, 2 years ago they held Texas which was generating close to 500 yards a game to 24.The only defense Arkansas faced this year on the same level was Alabama where they scored 20 points. They also scored 31 vs LSU, but consder this. Ryan Mallet thre 11 INT's this season, and 5 of them were against the top 2 defenses he saw this year Alabama and LSU. This is also an Arkansas team that improved defensively, and I see this one falling short of the total, as Arkansas is 7-0 to the under in their last 7 Bowl games

The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.

The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under

The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.

The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.

The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.

The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.

The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under

The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.

The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.

The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.

The East Carolina Pirates will face the Maryland Terrapins in the Military Bowl. The Pirates have been quite offensive as their quick striking attack has produced 33 points or more in 8 straight games, and has averaged just about 40ppg in the process. The problem is when you take a look at the level of competition they have played in the 8 games it has been very much below average, except for NC State, where they scored just 27 in regulation. Their 3 trips facing BCS Conference defenses, it has painted a different picture. The Pirates in those 3 games (discounting ovrtime) shows them producing a total of 71 points or 23.7ppg, a far cry from 40. Maryland playing an ACC shedule has not allowed more than 31 points all season. ECU has allowed 42 or more points in each of their last 2 games coming into this one, and Maryland went for over 37 points. This scenerio has shown to go 51-21 to the under the last 72 times it has occured, for 71% winners. I'll play his one under the total.

The Minnesota Vikings have had a brutal year, but when you get down to the last 2 weeks of the season there are a lot of systems that are stronger than any part of the season. The Eagles have really become a top team with Michael Vick at QB, and just adds one more weapon to a team full of playmakers. That combination boosts this line well into double digits. NFL history shows us that when a line is posted among 2 key numbers 13, and 14, totals in games with a pointspread of 13, 13.5, or 14 have gone 97-69 to the over the last 20 years. The Vikings have also gone 12-4 to the over in their last 16 posted as a road dog, and 40-19-1 to the under playing on the road vs a team with a winning record. Eagles are 10-4-1 to the over in their last 15 as a home favorite. I'll go with the over.

Hawaii has a well earned reputation as being an offensive powerhouse, and that hasn't changed this season. What has changed is the fact that they have perhaps their best defensive unit in years, and arguably ever. They should be able to hold down a pretty good Tulsa offense, that is likely to turn more to a ball control offense, and not engage in a shootout vs Hawaii on their homefield. That makes this very high total in jeaopardy of not getting reached. These enormous totals often miss their mark, as since 2006 their have been 6 totals that were set higher than 72, and 5 of them ailed to get their. This also fits a great longterm Bowl system that has connected on 75% of totals since 1992. I will play on the under in this one.

The Boise St. Broncos in one game went from hopes of playing in the National Championship Game, or at least a BCS Bowl, to playing Utah in the MAACO Bowl on December 22nd. Talk about a disappointment Bowl, this is certainly that for the Broncos. Utah may be in the same boat.The Utes were 8-0 sailing along with a chance to position themselves in the BCS lineup, when they were humiliated 47-7 at home by TCU. They have since fallen apart. Their first 8 games saw them score 27 points or more in all of them, but since just 213ppg. Boise St, has a big defense, and I'm just not sure we are going to see the "A" game out of the offense here. Broncos hanging unders vs the Mountain West in 6 of their last 7. I like the under in this one.

The Sun Belt has long been a conference that produces points in abundance, and that doesn't change when they get to a Bowl game, as 7 of the last 9 featuring a Sun Belt team have gone over the total. troy has gone for 30+ in 9 of their 12 games on the season, including 38 vs Oklahoma St. and 24 vs South Carolina, so they are going to score here. Ohio, U. has put up 30+ in 7 of their last 8 games, so a shootout here is certainly a possibility, and one of these teams is likely to get well into the 30s, if not both. Ohio,U now 7-1 to the over in their last 8 posted as a dog, while Troy is 17-5 to the over in their last 22 vs a winning team. I will go with the over in this one.

Northern Illinois put up 3 of the most explosive offensive performances in 3 straight games as we have seen all season, as they scored 195 points over a 3 game stretch, preceeding their MAC Championship game loss to Miami, Ohio. The numbers look good but the reality is they have done it vs very soft teams. Eastern Michigan they scored 71, Buffalo 45, Akron 50, Ball St. 59. Those 4 teams had a combined record of 9-39 on the season, only Toledo had a winning record where they put up a big number, but Toledo at 8-4 was actually outscored by opponents on the season. Fresno St. allowed a lot of points to teams like Nevada,Boise St., Mississippi, and Hawaii, but this offense is not on that level. I think the high scoring game here is never going to materialize. I will go with the under in this one.

BYU came on strong to finish the season, but this is a different BYU team than we have seen in the past, that doesn't have the explosive offense. BYU is -0.7 yards a play from what the opponents defenses allow that they have played on their schedule. That said, their defense is what has carried them this season. The BYU deense is 0.6 yards a play better than the offenses they have faced on the season. UTEP is simply not a good offensive team either as they are-0.4 yards on offense from the line of scrimmage vs the average of their opponents. That sets up a very good under opportunity in this one, as neither team has the ability to be considered even close to average here, which in NCAAF games is 52 points a game. This one is set as "average" and I see it falling short. This also fits a longterm under angle that has connected on 75% since 1992. I will play this one under the total.

The San Diego Chargers are back in late season modem, where they have posted a 30-4 straight up mark over the last 5 years in games played from Halloween on. Tonight they face a 49er team that has not been able to move the ball on the road vs anyone but Carolina and Arizona, perhaps the NFC's worst 2 teams. They have produced a total of 46 points in their other 4 road games on the season, good for 11.5ppg. Tonight they face the best defense they have seen all season, and will likely have trouble moving the ball, and getting points. They should play here with fire, as they are still a contender in the NFC West which is brutal. I expect them to keep San Diego from piling up points, and with their offense producing very little, I like this one to go under the total.

This game has been moved to Detroit as the Metrodome roof deflated and the game had to be moved to Detroit on Monday. The Vikings have gotten themselves into some high scoring games when the face a good passing attack like the Giants. Minnesota is 21-6 to the over when facing a team that averages 7+ yards per pass attempt since 1992. They are also 26-12 to the over when facing a team with a completion percentage of 64% or higher. When they have not been at home they are 41-22 to the over vs a team with a winning record in their last 63. Giants have been 7-0 to the over following a huge win by 21+ points, and their last 27 games overall have gone 18-9 to the over. I'll play this one over the total

The New England Patriots and the New York Jets will play a game with a lot of consequences good and bad, as determined by the outcome of this game. The winner will control their own destiny in terms of securing homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The Patriots, the last 3 times they had homefield advantage as the AFC East winner won the Superbowl, going a perfect 6-0 at home. There are other forces at work here. The weather is going to be a factor, as it usualy is in December in Foxboro. The game will be played with temperatures in the 20s, but that isn't the biggest factor. The wind is going to be a player here, with sustained winds of 15-20 MPH, with higher gusts blowing across the field from left to right, is going to hamper the kicking game, and long passing game. New England is a tough place to play for any team come December. The last 5 years the Pats, regardless of the level of their defense use the elements, homefield advantage, and Bill Belichick to keep opponents off the scoreboard. Since the 2005-06 season New England has played 10 games at home in December, and the oppoenets have scored a grand total of 85 points, or 8.5ppg. That has led to a 9-1 mark to the under. It gets worse as the weather gets worse, as with gametime temperatures at 40 or less, the opponents have played here 6 times, and scored 43 points, or 7.1ppg. The Jets have been victimized twice here, scoring 13 total points. The Jets are writing their own December legacy, predicated on defense. The Jets are now 13-3 to the under in their last 16 December games. This one stays under the total.

Historically speaking and relevant to the overall strength of this Philadelphia Eagle team, this becomes a must play for me. The Eagles should have their way with Houston and with Asante Samuel back they should be able take away the lone deep threat of the Texans. What may be even of greater significance is the fact that teams playing as a road dog on a short week (Thursday), with a posted total of 38 or higher have gone under to a 28-14 mark. I'll play the under here.

The San Diego Chargers look to be making their move as they always seem to do this time of year. They are back to 5-5 and very much alive and well in the AFC West. The Colts have sustained a lot of injuries on the season, and it is showing up in Peyton Manning's numbers. He has thrown for the fewest yards per pass attempt than any prior season, and he is on schedule to top the 700 pass mark for the season, and he never reached 600 before. The Colts have no running game, and the offense is struggling more than usual. The Colts have reached 31 points just 2 time in their last 18 games, while doing so 33 times in their last 80. The Chargers are one of the best teams vs the pass, and without a running game to worry about can hold the Colts down here. While this matchup always looks like a high scoring affair the last 5 have seen the under prevail 4 times. I'll go with the under in this one.

The Green Bay Packers have allowed just 10 points in their last 3 games, as the defense gets healthier, and they have now also allowed the fewest points in the NFL on the season. That makes for an interesting total set in this one. Teams this decade, since the 2000-01 season, that allow less than 15ppg are under cash cows in this high total scenerio. There have been 16 teams allowing less than 15 points per game in this period, and the highest total any of them have played to in 240 games is 47.5 matched by the total set in this one. The 47.5 total was reached twice, and the outcome was 2-0 to the under. It gets better. These teams playing to a total of 40 or more are 48-19-1 ATS to the UNDER! That is 71.6% of the time they fall short of the total. Under gets the call here.

I was waiting to see the status of Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez in this one, and he has been declared out, and this total hasn't budged. It opened at 50 and sits at 50. The oddsmakers are basically saying that the score in this game is going to be the same regardless of Martinez at QB? I disagree. Since he has injured hus ankle and toe, the Cornhusker offense has been average, and often times when the offense takes a hit, the deense really brings it, and in Nebraska's case they are already one of the best in the country. I could see Colorado scoring 10 or less here, and that means the Nebraska offense has to top the 40 mark without Martinez. The last 3 weeks with him banged up they have scored a total of 50 (OT not included), and allowed noone in the endzone in the last 2. I'm going under in this one.

The Auburn Tigers are in control of their own destiny in route to a chance to play for the National Championship. They have to win vs Alabama then win their SEC Championship game vs South Carolina. I'm not sold on this Auburn team, and I think Cam Newton is a great player, but not an unstoppable player. The Tigers have played all of 3 games on the road this season, and that will hurt them in this spot. They will play in front of 100,000+ screaming Alabama fans, and the noise will be deafening. Let's examine Cam Newton and the high octane Auburn offense vs the best defenses he has faced. He has played Kentucky #42 Miss St. #54, Clemson #24, and LSU #5. His TD pass total was 4 in those games, and his INT count was also 4. Miss St, held him to 136 passing and 70 rushing on 18 carries, that looks stoppable to me. Clemson took them to OT as Newton was held to 68 yards on 17 carries, and threw 2 INT's, and that was at home. LSU on the road held him to 86 yards passing, and 0 TD's. Now he goes to Alabama where everyone thinks 30-40 points is a given. If they do it, they will be the first team in my records dating back to 1999, when Alabama has had a top 10 defense. The Tide has been ranked in the top 10 in defense in 8 years since 1999. Since 2004 they have been ranked in the top 10 6 of 7 years. The most points scored in an Alabama home game vs an SEC opponent by both teams combined in those 6 years covering 23 home games is 44! (They had a game at 49 but 9 points were scored in OT). This total is set at 58. No Alabama game in their last 31 home games has topped 52 when they have had a top 10 defense. There have been some good offenses come here, and left humbled, ask Ryan Mallet and Arkansas who averaged 37.3ppg and left Tuscaloosa with 7. The Auburn team that featured Jason Campbell, Cadillac Williams, and Ronnie Brown, left Tuscaloosa with 250 yards and 21 points. Bottomline is this one is set way too high, and under is the play.

Totals of 47.5 or higher in week 12 have played to the under 63.7% of the time. Dallas has found some offense the last 2 weeks, although a lot of it has been tainted. They had just 324 total yards vs the Giants but 33 points, and just 265 yards against the Lions and 35 points. That is 68 points on less than 60 yards, so I don't expect that to continue. The Saints have been over 30 in their last 2 games as well, so this one has an over look to it. Teams on the road after scoring 30+ in 2 straight weeks with a total posted of 50 or more have a long history of playing under the total, and that is my call here the under gets the money

The Patriots are 8-2 and have played a very tough schedule. Their last 6 weeks show games vs Baltimore,San Diego,Minnesota,Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis, and they won all 5 of them. The only loss sandwiched in between was to Cleveland, where they were a complete no show. Now after the Steelers and Colts, and on the road for a short week, they play the lowly Lions. Teams that score 30 points in 2 straight games and then take to the road with a total of 50 or higher, have played to the under 76% of the time since 2000. Totals of 47.5 or higher in week 12 have played to the under 63.7% of the time as well. I'll play this one under the total.

The Temple Owls will be without a key defender in this game, as their top big play defender in Elijah Joesph is likely out, he leads the Owls in tackles for a loss. Miami Ohio has been without their top defender Ryan kennedy for most of the season, and the defense has suffered in his absence. The Owls are also a bit misleading offensively, as Chster Stewart was replaced at QB by Mike Gerardi. That change has proven worthy as Stewart was generating 6,2 yards pr pass attempt, while Gerardi has generated 9.2. Key defenders missing, and an improved Owl passing attack to complement a strong running game spells over the total.

The NFL is a league of history, that if you look in the right places you can find some offerings by the books that definately give you a winning posiion. Week 11 has such an opportunity and I am ready to exploit a 69.2% winning situation that occurs this week. This is a longtime premise that dates back to the 1980s and is still a powerful tool today. I will be backing this game according to those results and play on the under

The NFL is a league of history, that if you look in the right places you can find some offerings by the books that definately give you a winning posiion. Week 11 has such an opportunity and I am ready to exploit a 69.2% winning situation that occurs this week. This is a longtime premise that dates back to the 1980s and is still a powerful tool today. I will be backing this game according to those results and play on the under.

The LSU offense is average at best, but they bring a very powerful defense to the field every night. The Tigers have played 3 home games the last 2 years and against some pretty good offenses. LSU has allowed a grand total of 144 points in the 13 games, or 11.1 a contest. That would mean they have to hit 40 to push this one over the total. Their home games have averaged less than 39 total points a game over the last 2 years, and in their last 14 home games 12 have gone under the total. This one goes under the total.

I picked Boise St. to win it all this season, and they still might get their chance. This team for my money is the best team in NCAAF this year, and I hope they get a chance to prove it. The offense is very good, but as good as the offense is, the defense is even better. They have given up 61 points in their 7 games vs teams not from a BCS conference the entire year. When you consider the fact that 28 of the 61 have come in the 4th quarter, when they have long since put th game away, they have really given up just 33 points in the 7 games. When you get a total posted in the high 60s with a team that is likely to limit the opponent to 10 points or less, that means Boise is going to have to score close to or more than 60 o push this one over. I'll play the under in this one.

The UNLV Runnin Rebels have not defended very good teams well this season. They have allowed 48 to TCU, 49 to West Virginia, 44 to Nevada, 38 to Utah, and 41 to Wisconsin, not to mention 59 to BYU. Air Force has letdown against bad teams, allowing 23 to New Mexico, 22 to Army, and 27 to Colorado St. This total is set way to low under the given circumstances. Air Force is 21-8 to the over in November games and the last 4 in this series has produced 4 straight to the over. I'll go with the over in this one.

The Miami Dolphins took a hit last week when they lost both QB's to injuries, and will go with Tyler Thigpen in this one vs the Bears. The Dopphins may have to simplify the offense, and Thigpen is a good scrambler so the Dolphins could be trying to keep things on the ground in this one. The Bears have a short week, and teams playing on Thursday as a road dog of 3 points or less have played under 62% of the time. I like this one to fall short of the total, under is the call.

This is a pair of average teams that defend the other teams strength, and I look for a low scoring game in this one. UCLA really struggles throwing the ball, and average less than 125 yards in the air a game, so the clock will be moving a lot here. UCLA has lacked offense several years and looking at all their games with a posted total of 49 or higher, they are 21-6 to the under since 06-07, and have averaged falling short of the total by 7.7 points per game. Washington has also been an under team vs a team with a losing record at 5-0 to the under. This series has also produced 4 of the last 5 to the under. Under gets the call in this one.

The Toledo Rockets were hammered in their last game bu Northern Illinois. They will be facing a punchless Bowling Green Falcon team that has a very enemic offense, and at the same time Toledo will be missing their starting QB. That would likely mean the Rockets run the ball a lot to keep their QB from getting into bad situations, and the Falcon defense allows more than 200 rushing yards per game. It is likely Bowling Green tries to run a lot as they relize if they can control the ball, and shorten the game that is their best chance to hang in this one. I like the under here Totals set from 49.5-56 with a turnover prone team that averages over 2.5 turnovers a game (Bowling Green), facing a team that forces 2.5 turnovers a game (Toledo) have played under to a 71-31 mark 70% of the time the last 2 decades in college football. I'll go with the under here

The Temple Owls program was in shambles not to long ago, but they have turned the corner, and come into this one with an 8-2 record on the season. The Owls defense has allowed just 10 points total in their last 3 games, certainly look to be a defensive power. I'm not so sure about that. The Owls have played all the bottom feeders in the MAC. They are 5-1 but the 5 wins have been vs teams that are a combined 11-40 on the season, and the only good MAC team they faced, Northern Illinois beat them by 14. Most of the #18 ranked defense has been earned by games vs horrible offenses, and a lot of them. Out of 120 teams Temple played Kent (105), Akron (120), Buffalo (112), and Bowling Green (114), and Div-1AA Villonova. Their other 5 games has shown them allowing an average of 390 yards a game, which would turn a #18 ranking into a number 77 ranking. The 5 games vs better offenses aren't that good either. Connecticut (87), Penn St. (74), Army (77), C Mich (57), and N. Illinois, the game they lost (24). Ohio,U is at #83, but over the last 6 weeks they have averaged 37.2ppg. This game is going over the total.

These are two of the worst offenses in NCAAF this year, with both combining to average just 40 points a game. UL Lafayette has offensive line issues, and have suffered 31 sacks already on the season, and what makes it worse is they are running the ball for just 2.6 yards a carry putting them in harms way facing a lot of 3rd and long situations. Florida Atlantic is even worse, and average just 17.5ppg. Both these teams have average defenses so I certainly think they will rather easily handle their opponents offensive inefficiencies. This is a conference game where each team returned 5 or less offensive starters. These games have gone 72-42 to the under the last 5 years. This one stays under the total.

The Boise St. Broncos know they not only have to win, they have to win big to have a chance of passing TCU, and hope one of the 2 BCS Conference unbeaten teams, Auburn, and Oregon stumble, to get the the BCS Championship game. The Broncos are the best team for the line of scrimmage and I expect them to put up 50+ here. idaho has gone over 30+ already 6 times on the season, and I don't expect them to get there in this one, but I do expect them to get 14-17 enough to push this one over the total. Over is the play in this one.

These are 2 struggling programs, each having trouble offensively, while the Bulls defense may be the best unit on the field between the 2 offenses and defenses. I like this one to really be a low scoring affair, and am surprised this total is beyond the 40. This one should be played to 40 tops leaving a lot on the table here for a rock solid under play. I like this one to play low, and will go with the under in this Friday nighter. get all 4 plays for Friday with a 1 day pass.

The Baltimore Ravens have played to the fewest totals of 40 or more than any other football team in the NFL in the last 13 years. They have played 200 games during the stretch with just 44 totals posted at 40 or higher in their games, or 22% of all their games. To see them with a total of 44 as it sits right now is highly unusual. They have seen a total of 44 r higher just 11 times. The Ravens in totals posted at 40+ over the last 13 years are 26-16-2 to the under or 62% of the time, and those numbers are consistent when the total reaches 42 or higher, as they are 17-10-1 or 63% of the time. When they have played on the road at 40+ they are 14-5 or 74% under. They are 4-2 to the under with a total of 40+ on the road vs an NFC team. Overall the Ravens are 9-1-1 to the under in their last 11 road games to any total. Baltimore since 1992 has faced 12 teams that are horrible against the pass allowing 235 yards or more and have gone 11-1 to the under, which is 7-0 under if it occured in the 2nd half of the season. Atlanta is 6-0 to the under the last 3 years off a win vs a division team. I'll go with the under in this one.

After most watched last night's explosion of points in the MAc game between Toledo and Northern Illinois, it will have under bettors thinking twice, but this is a different game, with a different outcome. Bowling Green has one of the worst offenses in the country, but they will be facing a Miami,Ohio team that is almost as bad defensively. Maimi, Ohio loves to put the ball in the air, the problem is that is the strength of this Bowling Green team, as they are poor vs the run. redbirds have not played a conference game all year that has reached 50 points, with just one on their entire season topping the 50 mark, and it took Missouri's offense to achieve that. I like this one to stay under the total.

The Pittsburgh Steelers come into their Monday Night Football game at Cincinnati off a road loss. This has been historically where the Steeler defense bows its back and steps up big. Since 1990 they have come into a game on the road off a road loss 22 times, and have turned in a 17-5 mark to the under good for a 77.2% winning rate. The numbers get even better when the posted total in these games are over 40 points, as they are a picture perfect 8-0 to the under. The Bengals going back to the last half of last season have faced 8 defenses ranked #13 or higher, and have never scored over 20 points and average just 13.5ppg. The 8 games have seen 6 go under the total, but when the total posted was 35 or higher, the under is 6-0. That makes 14-0 to the under in this situation combined for both teams. Under gets the call.

I would expect that New England will be piling up the points in this one. Belichick has no sympathy for Mangini, and he isn't afraid to pile things up offensively, and he sure has the weapons to do it. Cleveland looks better with McCoy at QB, and the New England pass defense has enough holes for Cleveland to score enough to push this one over the total. I would expect the ball to be in the air a lot in this one from bith sides, and see this one going well over the total.

This is a game of defense vs offense, and I always side with the under when you see a total posted at 55 or higher. Looking at this Central Florida team, they rank #9 in the country in fewest yards allowed per game. Over the last 2 years this is what has happened when this situation exists. If you have a team that is ranked in the top 10 in the country in fewest yards allowed per game, and a total of 55 or higher, you simply play the under. Last year this was a profitable 18-9 to the under at 67%, and this year it is 11-6 to the under so far for 64.7% winners. The combined 2 year total is now 29-15 for 66% winners. Under is the play in this one.

The Virginia Tech Hokies are an inside out team this season. Frank beamer teams are usually led by defense, but this one is led by the offense. The Yellow Jackets ran all over the Hokies a year ago generating 309 yards on the ground with their option attack. That spells trouble for both the defenses in this one and I look for this one to be an assault on the scoreboard with plenty of points, which puts the valued play here on this one to go over the posted total.

These teams have proven to struggle offensively, while the defenses have remained solid. I have projected this game to play in the high 30s so there is at least 5-6 points of value now that the total has risen to 43.5. These teams matchup well against the others offense, and I expect limited scoring opportuniteis in this game tonight. The Bulls have played to a 5-1 mark in their last 6 home games, to the under, and I'll ride with the under in this one.

The NFL rules change appears to be making for a season of offense, especially among the offensively talented teams. Both these teams are equipped to take advantage of the defensive weaknesses of their opponents. Houston ran for 260 yards in the first meeting this season and the teams combined for 58 first downs, and 58 points. These teams have engaged in a lot of shootouts over the years with 11 of the last 14 scoring over 50 points, and 10 of the last 11 meetings topping the total. I'll play this one over the total.

The University of Connecticut's offense took a big hit when Cody Endres was suspended, and he won't be returning to the team. Zach Frazier has been ineffective, so coach Randy Edsall has turned to freshman Michael Box, who has a long way to go to be a bonafide BCS Conference QB. West Virginia is going to dare him to throw the ball, and stack the box against the only offensive threat Uconn has in Jordan Todman. Todman was slowed last week due to the same reasons, and Uconn was shutout at Louisville, and now face one of the toughest defenses in the country in West Virginia. West Virginia has struggled vs the good teams on their schedule offensively, as they average just 16ppg vs the 3 top teams they have faced. Uconn is capeable of slowing them down, while offensively, Uconn has been reduced to a very poor offense. I like the under in this one.

These teams have been in a lot of high scoring games, but they have also combined to play against 6 teams from BCS Conferences, so the numbers get horribly skewed on all fronts, as they combined to give up 47.2ppg to those teams. Looking at UL Lafayette who has played 4 games within the conference there has not been a single one thathas topped the 55 point mark. Western Kentucky was greeted rather harshly as they played a full schedule within the Sun Belt for the first time a year ago. They allowed 237 points in their first 5 Sun Belt Contests, or 47.4ppg. They have really cleaned up the defense, and are much more competitive now, as the 47.4 in the first 5 has been reduced to 27.4ppg in the last 5. This one is juiced due to all the high scoring games, and points allowed to BCS teams, but the last 5 played for each, has seen just 1 top the 55 mark. I like the under in this one.

These teams when playing FBS competition have been able to generate little in the way of offense. Kent St. has moved the ball for just a little over 4 yards per play, which isn't condusive for a lot of scoring. The other side of the ball shows Kent St. with a defense that has played overall, above average. They should also be able to limit a Bowling Green offense that is significantly below average as well. To add to the miseries, Willie Geter may not be in the backfield for Bowling Green. I'll play this one under the total.

The SMU Mustangs under June Jones are percieved to be similar to hawai in a pass happy attack, and little defense. This team doesn't throw the ball nearly as much. Navy is quite the opposite, it is no secret they are going to put the ball on the ground and grind the game to a halt. This however is a Navy team taht scores less, and allows less, as their defense is ahead of their offense right now. Mustangs have been stopped on the road with just 2 of their last 10 on the road vs a winning team have topped the total. Navy has now played to an 8-2 mark to the under in their last 10, as well as possessing a 14-3 mark to the under in their last 17. This one stays under the total.

Hard to understand the number here. Texas A&M comes into this one as the #15 ranked offense in the country, averaging 35ppg. Missouri comes into this one averaging 35.4ppg. This is an A&M team that has scored 27+ in 9 of their last 13 games. Missouri has gone for 30+ in 7 of their last 10 games overall. These teams appear in my opinion to be poised to produce 60+ points in this one. Missouri comes in playing over to a 13-5 mark in their last 18 posted as a dog from 3.5-10 points. Aggies carry a 41-20-2 over mark in their last 63 conference games, and 31-12-2 to the over following an ATS loss. I like the over in this one.

The South Florida Bulls have really struggled under a new head coach, with 9 returning offensive players, the entire offensive line, and the QB, but they are vastly inferior to the Bulls offensive unit from a year ago. It all starts with QB B.J. Daniels who a year ago was throwing for 8.7 yards per attempt, down to 7.2 this year. He had 9 picked off a year ago, and already 7 this season. His running numbers are down almost a yard a carry as well. The RB's are not getting it done for the Bulls either. They were outgained by Western Kentucky who has lost by an average of 282 yards per game vs the 9 other BCS teams they have faced since joining div-1. It won't help facing the 7th ranked defense of West Virginia, who ranks 55th in offense on the season. Noel Devine has seen his numbers drop from 8.6ypc as a freshman to 6.3ypc as a sophomore to 6.1ypc as a junior to 5.3 this year, is not the same explosive back. Geno Smith has done a good job at QB with 12 TD's to just 2 INT's, but the South Florida defense is still very good. Mountaineers have allowed just 83 points in their last 7 at home, and I don't see them going for 30+ vs South Florida. I like the under in this one.

The Vikings suddenly can't move the ball at all, and the Jets defense is rock solid, and get Revis and Pace back, so how are the Vikings gonna score? The Viking defense is strong as well, so how is the weak Jet offense supposed to score here either? History shows that this type of game generally scores. The Vikings are 9-3 to the over in their last 12 as a road dog. These teams both combine to have gone 25-8-1 to the over in a game following producing over 350 yards of offense, which they both did a week ago. Over is th play.

The number here is really on the short side, and that is because the Eagles don't have Michael Vick, but were expeted to go with Kolb at the beginning of the season anyway, and this number would not be so low if Vick never entered the picture. Teams on th road after an upset loss as a favorite have played to a 40-16 mark to the over in their next game, during the first half of the season. The Niners defense is awful, and I expect this one to have plenty to spare in going over the total.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are off to a bad start as they were projected as a top 25 team. Through 4 weeks they sit at just 1-3, and the lone win was vs a non div-1 team. The 3 losses show the Bearcat defense allowing 28,30, and 31 points and a 76th ranking out of 120 teams, despite allowing just 254 yards vs Indiana St. The Redbirds gave up 21 to lowly Eastern Michigan as well as 21 to Kent St., and 34 to a rather unimpressive Florida defense. I look for Cincinnati to top the 30 mark in this one, and I look for Miami,Ohio to put up somewhere in the 20s themselves. The Bearcats have really come out aggressively on offense after a bye week as they have now played to a 10-1 mark to the over following a bye. I like this one to top the total.

Texas Tech netted 144 yards of offense vs Texas, their lowest pouput in a decade, and the first time they were held to under 200 yards passing since 2000. I mentioned this on the radio show this week. I also mentioned that coach Brown of Texas felt this was his best defensive team ever. That gives us plenty of line value in this one, as the Tech offense is considered down, or changed under Tuberville, but it is not. The fact is, the 51 set in the Texas game was the lowest total Texas Tech has played to since October of '06 and it took Texas' best defense to get it there. Tat isn't the case vs the Cyclones. Iowa St. gave up 27 to Kansas St. who is down, and 35 to Iowa who is known more for defense. The last 3 meetings between these teams shows 59,68, and 73 points being scored. Iowa St, has a pair of experienced playmakers in RB Robinson, and QB Arnaud. Both squads have returned 8 on offense and the QB from a year ago, while the defenses combine to bring back 10. That puts this into a system that has gone over 61% winners the last 5 years. I'm going over in this one.

The Auburn Tigers will step into the Sun Belt for the 2nd time this season, with the first one a route by the score of 52-26 vs Arkansas St. The Tigers have made minced meat out of the Sun Belt over the years, coming in with a 9-0 straight up record, where they have outscored them 417-136. This presents value based on the fact these games vs Sun Belt teams have averaged scoring 61.4 total points, and with this one in the lower side of the 5-s, I see this one producing enough points to push this one over the total. The Sun Belt Conference has met BCS Conference teams 136 times over the last 6 years, with a 76-60 mark to the over for 56% winners. UL Monroe has been involved with playing BCS teams 17 times, and the over has gone 13-4 in the 17 games. UL Monroe also 18-7-1 to the over as a road dog of more than 10.5Auburn at 15-4 to the over vs a team with a losing record in their last 19. Over gets the call.

The Oklahoma St. Cowboys surprisingly lead the nation in offense, and that will be tested tonight against an unbeaten Texas A&M team. The Aggies finally have the experience to go on the road and play at a high level. Oklahoma St. is not going to put up the numbers they have been putting up in this one. They have 16 players that made their first career start in 2010, 4 new starters on the offensive line. Ths will be a nationally televised game, vs a sound opponent, and mistakes will get in the way of what they have done in lesser games this season. I like this one to go under the total.

The Indianapolis Colts have a high powered offense, and the Denver Broncos put up 31 at home vs Seattle here last week, so the number posted in the t101-56 to the under for otal for this one is inflated. The Colts forced 3 turnovers last week, and the Broncos went for a +3 vs Seattle, so the numbers posted last week were opportunistic numbers and are falsely reflected in the posted total for this one. Games played when a team forces 3 turnovers, and facing another team that was +3 in turnovers from their previous games have indicated this to be true. The result has been 101-56 to the under for a winning percentage of 64.3%. The last 11 times going back to 2006, that the Colts have had a posted total of higher than 47, they are 8-3 to the under. Going back to 1998 they have gone 11-5 to the under with a total of 48 or higher. The Broncos have been posted as a home dog just 16 times since 1990, and have gone 11-5 to the under in the 16 games, and just 2 of the 16 games exceeded 48 points. The under has previled in 8 of their last 9 as a home dog. I'll go with the under in this one

What can you say about the Oregon Ducks, as their offense has generated 612 yards a game, and by themselves could approach this total. Their defense has been good, but Arizona St. certainly has the potential to move the ball on the Ducks. The Sun Devils have scored 114 points in their first 3 games on the season. The Ducks are 28-10 to the over after a game where their offense produced 450 yards or more, as well as 33-16 to the over in their last 49 when posted as a favorite. I like this one to go over the total.