Sports Picks & Predictions

This matchup is between a pair of teams, that have arguably become the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL, at least for now. QB Mike Glennon has not done anything special for Tampa Bay, but he certainly has been an upgrade to Josh Freeman. Freeman was completing just 45% of his passes at 6.1 yards per attempt and 2 TD`s and 3 INT`s. Glennon is completing 60% at 5.7 yards per attempt, but has found the end-zone 8 times to just 3 picks. Mike James has been better in the backfield than the injured Doug Martin, who was not running nearly as effectively as he was a year ago. The difference is 11ppg in the Buc`s first 4 games, to 20ppg in their last 4. Miami has allowed 20 to each of their last 7 opponents, and have scored 17 or more in every game this season. They should have no trouble getting their tonight vs a Tampa ole defense allowing 30ppg over their last 4. This game fits a smoking hot trend that is non-conference home teams with a lower winning percentage than their opponent, as long as they are not favored by 3 or more. This situation is 36-8-3 the last 49 occurrences, and is currently 12-0-1 this season, and on an incredible 25-1-3 run. This situation plays on the over, which is my selection here, OVER the total

This is a late added play and situational based, play is on the OVER

While I did a complete analysis in the writeup for the total in another game, time precludes me doing the same for all of these, but I have done the analysis, and this game also fits the 94-43 system, that is 6-1 this year so far. The play is on the under.

While I did a complete analysis in the writeup for the total in another game, time precludes me doing the same for all of these, but I have done the analysis, and this game also fits the 92-47 system, that is 9-2 this year so far. The play is on the under

Since 1990 in NCAAF there have been 12 games from game number 9 and on, where a pair of 1 win teams played, and the home team averaged less than 20 points a game. The average points scored in these games was 46.8. There have been 9 games where a road team from game 9 out, both teams 1 win, and the average points scored have been 49.2. I did the same for defense that allow 45 or more for the road team, and 35 or more for the home team, and get 48.8 for the road team, and 51.8 for the home team. This game also fits a total system that is 94-43 including 6-1 this year. The play is on the under.

While I did a complete analysis in the writeup for the total in another game, time precludes me doing the same for all of these, but I have done the analysis, and this game also fits the 94-43 system, that is 6-1 this year so far. The play is on the under

While I did a complete analysis in the write up for the total in another game, time precludes me doing the same for all of these, but I have done the analysis, and this game also fits the 92-47 system, that is 9-2 this year so far. The play is on the under.

This game fits a huge total situation which is 36-8, and the play is on the over

This game fits a huge total situation which is 36-8, and the play is on the over.

Penn St. has been the lowest scoring team playing on grass since 1992, where they have a 97-69 record to the under averaging just a total of 47.3ppg. Illinois was piling up good offensive numbers but those numbered have smoothened out against the better defenses in the Big-10. This game fits a situation that has been 93-43 t the under. Play this under the total.

This game fits a lot of total situations I have, and I detailed one in my newsletter this morning, and another which is 91-47-5. The play in this game is on the under.

THE EVOLVING WORLD OF THE NFL AND TOTALS:

Professional sports leagues evolve through the years, as we see rule changes, scheme changes, no-huddle fast attack offenses that don't allow the defense to get the right personnel into the game, etc.

It would be fair to say that most of the changes over the past decade have given the offense an extra advantage, and trying to protect QB injuries, has also had a great impact on game scoring. The average total in an NFL game illustrates just what is happening in the sport.

The average total in an NFL game back in 1995 was 40.6 points per contest. That rose ever so slowly over the next decade and a half, reaching 42.8ppg in the 2010 season. Overall, that showed an increase in points from 40.6 to 42.8 or 2.2 points over a 16 year period. That represents a 9.6% increase overall, nothing Earth shattering considering the time span was 16 years, it represented a growth in totals of 0.6% per season, something hardly noticeable year over year.

What has happened since the start of the 2011 season, is hard not to notice. The average total of 42.8ppg in 2010 has soared to 45.5% through 7 weeks of play in 2013. That represents a change of 6.3% in just 2.5 seasons.

Besides the rule changes, what we have seen is a lot of duel threat QB's enter the league, providing more stress for the defenses. beyond being duel threats, a lot of the QB's entering the league are simply of high caliber, so in the end scoring is up.

SO HOW DO WE CASH IN?:

Seems like a lost cause on the surface, simply because the adjustments have apparently already been made....or have they adjusted enough?

When considering a point of attack, the best place to look for an OVER would be in a game that has the lowest value on the schedule in terms of the playoffs. There are 3 types of games an NFL team plays, and in order of significance, which is interchangeable with order of intensity it would look like this:

1) division games

2) conference games

3) inter conference games

So our focus should turn to the least important games, as intense games tend to become more defensive by nature, and urgency.

The second issue, is familiarity. Division opponents know each other, playing twice a year, conference opponents also see each other frequently, but inter conference opponents see each other once every 4 years!

So now that we have isolated the how's and why's to arrive at OVER situations in inter conference as the likely point of attack, here is where the gold is:

Since the changes that have occurred in totals, really manifested themselves over the last 3 years as depicted above, that is what we will focus on, and it looks like this:

1) inter conference games

2) home team has a lower winning percentage than their opponent

3) home team is essentially a dog, meaning the line constraint, sense the home field advantage is from -2.5 to any dog.

When we transpose these simple requirements into the last 3 years we find the over has been:

35-8-2 or 81.4% winners!

Have the odds makers started to close this window?

HARDLY!

It is a perfect 9-0 to the over this season, and 16-0-1 in the last 17! and 22-1-1 in the last 24, the reality is it has been off the charts!

It is active this Sunday when San Francisco heads to Jacksonville, so do consider the over in this game.

MY NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER.

This game fits a totals situation which is 134-70-2 since 1989, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 134-70-2 since 1989, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 92-42 and 4-0 this year, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 92-42 including 4-0 this year, and the play is on the under.

Each of these teams have given up 27 points or more in every game they have played this season, the problem is the NY Giants have played a schedule of teams that are a combined 27-14, not 1-4. Historically speaking, a team playing as a home favorite of less than 7 points, that allows more than 30 points a game, playing to a total of 48 or less are 35-13 to the under, including 28-8 lately in the last 36. Play the under.

This game is from my strongest total situation, and is part of my 70% SYSTEM CLUB, this situation is 77-28, and the play is on the over.

It is rare that I get 2 strong total situations in the same game, that are independent of each other. I have in this game 101-50 and 62-30, and the play in this game is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation which is 52-17 and is part of my 70% SYSTEM CLUB. Play is on the under.

The Umass Minutemen won their first game of the year, and scored a season high 17 points. This is a team that averages less than 10 points a game. The good news is no team that is not from a BCS Conference has scored more than 28 against them all season. Buffalo is allowing jusy 12.3ppg against them in their 4 games vs teams not from a BCS Conference. Teams that average less than 10 points a game, that won for the first time at home their last game, have not produced a total of more than 42 points in their next game, and have averaged a total of 35ppg from both teams. Play this one on the under.

One of my strongest total situation is in play here which is 91-42, including 3-0 this year, play on the under.

Phillip Rivers after a few really bad seasons, has worked his way back to the form he once had, and the Chargers pass attack has been as good as ever. The San Diego offense is well above average, with the passing game averaging 8.1 yards per attempt on the season. The problem is, as good as the passing attack has been, the defense is allowing 8.1 yards per attempt to opponents. Indianapolis is an above average passing team, and below average defending it, so both offenses have the advantage when the ball is in the air, which should be plenty of the time. Indianapolis is 26-10 to the over facing a team that throws for more than 235 yards a game in their last 36, and 70-46 to the over in a road game, that comes on the heels of a home game in their last 116. I also have a 50-29 situation to the over for this game. Play on the over. While high totals tend to play under, 60% of totals of 49.5 and higher on Monday Night football have gone over the total. Play is on the over.

This game fits MY 70% SYSTEM CLUB, an 89-32 total situation that plays on the over.

the Jacksonville Jaguars have not been able to move the ball all season, scoring just 31 total points in their 4 games. The St. Louis Rams have managed just 18 points in their last 2 games, and that sets the stage for a low scoring contest. Looking back at NFL history when we have a road team that has scored less than 44 points over a 4 consecutive game sequence (struggling offense), doing battle vs a team that has scored less than 25 points in their last 2 games (another struggling offense), the result has been 17-2 to the under. e have seen in these 19 games just 9 of 38 scores (2 for each game) see at least 1 team score 20 points or more. We have also seen the highest scoring game reach 43, the only one of the 19 that made it to 40. There are also 14-1, and 9-0 subsets of this situation, both active. Play this one under the total.

This game fits a situation which has been 61-30 to the over. make the play on the over.

It would be easy to project this one over the total, anytime Drew Brees takes the field. The difference this season for New Orleans however, has been on the other side of the ball. The Saint`s defense last year held just 3 opponents to 17 points or less, and this year through 4 games, no one has scored more than 17 points on them. The Bears have played 4 straight to the over, however teams that have done so are 6-2 to the under in week 5, when the total is posted at 46 or higher, an indication of inflated totals. I also have a few much longer term situations that are all over 55% to the under. Play this one under the total.

This game should be completely one sided, as Bowling Green has huge advantages on both sides of the ball. Umass has scored 7ppg, and I`ll be surprised if they find the end-zone at all here, they didn`t last year. Umass has not seen any of their 4 games top a total of 45 points all season, and it will be hard pressed for this one to get there either, as Umass was shutout a year ago, and could be again. Play this one under the total.

Western Michigan simply has no offense, and Toledo is a much better defensive team than what the odds makers are saying here, and they will also be running the ball a lot, as that is what they do best, and Western Michigan is one of the worst teams in stopping the run. They are generating just 4.5 yards a play and have played under the total in 4 of their 5 games, while Toledo which has had a big reputation for offense in recent years, is now better defensively, and all 5 of their games have played under the total, as well as 14 of their last 17. Play this one under the total

Texas Tech has a long standing reputation for offense. yes, they enter this game averaging 38.8ppg, but when you consider that 61 of those came against Stephen F. Austin, and 41 against SMU who has allowed 43ppg, that is below average from what the Mustangs have been allowing. Kansas has a very strong defense, and the points aren`t going to be coming so fast for the Red Raiders in this one. The problem for the Jayhawks is, they can`t score, and that sets this one up to come in under the total.

Not a whole lot to say here, except the fact that I have a very reliable total indicator that has gone 99-50, and the play in this game is on the over

Vanderbilt had one of their best seasons in history last year, but a lot of key elements from that team are no longer here. It is still hard for the general public to forget about last year, especially after they covered at South Carolina. The facts speak differently however, as the Dores were out-gained by over 300 yards, had a positive turnover margin, and still lost by just 10 points, so the final score is not indicative of what actually happened there. The public is riding them by 65% yet the line is going the other way. Last week they struggled against Umass, one of the worst teams in college football. Vanderbilt will get their points, but the defense has slipped considerably from a year ago. UAB has shown the capacity to move the ball against an average defense, and I think this one proves that to be the case. This game fits an over situation, based in part on large lined non-conference games, which has been 102-55 to the over. The play here is on the over.

Mike Leach has never been shy about piling on the points. Last week he was throwing the ball in the 4th quarter up 41-7, and passed for a TD with his starting QB. Since coming to Washington St. he hasn`t had so many opportunities as he did at Texas Tech, but he will have one this week. Idaho has allowed 40 or more points to every opponent on their schedule, and the problem is they have yet to face even an average offense. This is a team that gave up 63 to LSU, 66 to North Carolina, and 52 to BYU last year, and the defense this season is at least as bad. Washington St. is going for 50 here, and I would not be surprised if they got to 60 or more. Play on the over.

The USC Trojans are going to struggle offensively thi season. They have averaged just 24ppg and have yet to see a better than average defense this season. They are going to be in a lot of games because they have a very tough defense, one that has allowed 10ppg thus far. Enter Chuck Keaton and Utah St. The Aggies averaged 34.4ppg a year ago, and so far in three games this season have piled up 49.3ppg. here is the problem. Utah St. plays a rather weak schedule and seldom runs into teams with both size and speed on defense. Case in point from last year. They managed just 3 points vs BYU, and 14 at Wisconsin. They totaled just 551 yards in the 2 games. They were also held to 20 points in regulation against Utah. They are not going to be very effective scoring in this game, and USC has a long way to go, to be considered even average offensively. Play this one under the total.

This selection is the product of a week 2 situation that has been highly effective over the years. The situation has gone 89-52 to the under since 1989, including 20-5 to the under in the most recent 25 games. Jacksonville enters at 19-7-1 to the under in their last 27 vs the AFC, and Oakland is 7-1 to the under in their last 8 overall. Make the play on the under.

: I`m going to keep this one simple. These teams are woeful offensively, as Wake averaged 18.5ppg a year ago, and over their last 7 games BC averaged a meager 13.9ppg. They have a combined 18 players between them coming back on the defensive side of the ball. The winner here will struggle to get to 20 points, play on the under

This is an East Carolina team that had a potent offense last season, and put up 52 points last year. They have all the weapons back from that team, and are facing a defensively challenged Florida Atlantic team. This is a team that gave up 31 or more points 8 times a year ago, and the East Carolina offense will be amongst the strongest they will have seen. Florida Atlantic does not have a good offense, but East Carolina defense is pedestrian, and the Owls will get some points here. East Carolina allowed 39ppg in their last 6, but the Owls lack the offense to exploit to a large degree. This game plays over the total.

FOXBORO,MASS:

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

While many think snow and rain impact football scores the most it is actually only a strong wind that impacts totals, and they have a history of playing under.

This is a weather play on the under.

The Cincinnati Bengals have played at a high level, but it has been spearheaded by a defense that has registered a lot of sacks ranking 3rd in the NFL. While the defense has been surging Andy dalton has struggled behind an offensive line that has surrendered 18 sacks in the last 4 games, and Houston is right there with Cincinnati ranking 5th in sacks. To complecate matters for the bengals is RB Green-Ellis is playing with an ailing hamstring. Andy dalton over his last 5 games has just 4 TD passes and 7 INT's, and his yards per attempt are down as well. Houston has had problems offensively as well, and with Cincinnati allowing less than 2.5 yards per carry over the last 4 games, and a lot of pressure, schaab isn't likely to find answers in this one. this one sets up to be defensively dominant by both sides, and the play is on the under.

Both these teams showed warts as well as talent during their seasons. Pittsburgh had Notre Dame on the ropes, and Ole Miss had A&M on the ropes. They are both outstanding passing teams, with each surpassing their opponents yards per attempt average by more than a full yard. neither has a very stable running game, so I expect that they both put the ball to the air often, slow the game down, and score a lot more than expected. Pitt looked very defensive in their last 2 games allowing just a total of 9 points, but that is not a marker for the under, it is a marker for the over. teams that enter their Bowl game having held their final 2 opponents to less than 7 points each, have allowed over 30ppg in the last 9 occurances dating back to 1994. The average points in those games has been 59. play this game over the total.

This is a system play that is on the under

This game fits a totals situation which is 30-11 to the under. Play the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 37-11 to the under in Bowl games, play the under.

This game fits a Bowl totals situation which is 37-11 to the under. The play is on the under.

When a team in a Bowl game averages over 40 points a game the total is 29-14 to the under. make the play on the under

Bowl games with lines of from -3 to +3 go under 57% of the time, play on the under.

When a Bowl team that averages over 40 points a game plays to a total from 50.5 to 58.5 the under is 12-0. Play on the under.

The Michigan St. Spartans had trouble moving the ball all season. This is a team that played a difficult schedule, having faced 8 Bowl teams from BCS Conferences, and I include Boise St. in that equation for obvious reasons. They averaged a meager 16.7ppg against those 8 teams. The good news is the Sartans held 9 teams to 20 points or less on the season as well. TCU lost its QB early on, and the Horned Frogs have always been a strong defensive team, although they struggled at times vs the high powetred offenses of the Big-12. They did hold baylor to a season low 21 points, held Oklahoma to 24, Texas to a season low 13, and Kansas St. to a season low 23. They also held Kansas and Virginia to season lows in points scored, so 5 of the teams they faced this season scored season low points against them, and a pedestrian Michigan St. offense isn't going to score much at all here. TCU has also struggled offensively vs better defenses, and Michigan St. is one of the best. I look for the winner here to be lucky to see 20 points, and the play here is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 21-6 ATS in Bowl games, and the play is on the under.

The West Virginia Mountaineers have one of the best offenses in the country, and have a quick striking assing attack behind geno Smith, but can also run the ball with authority. The problem they have is one of the worst pass defenses in the country and Syracuse is a great passing team behind QB Ryan Nassib who threw for 8.1 yards per attempt and 24 TD's. The Syracuse offense propelled them to a 5-1 finish after starting just 2-4. The first 6 games saw them score just an avrrage of 22.8ppg while they tallied 35.8ppg in their last 6. Syracuse also scored 47 against this West Virginia defense last year, which was their highest scoring output against a FBS team in a game that did not go to overtime since scoring 49 vs Rutgers back on November 2, 2000, or over 12 years ago. Play this one on the over.

The Air Force Academy runs the triple option, and Bowl teams thatdo that are usually able to have success against anyone. This is the Air Force's 6th straight Bowl appearance, and they rank 2nd in the country with 329.2 rushing yards per game. Their last 10 Bowl games, shows this to be the one that has averaged the most on the ground. there are only 2 teams that have stopped them, and that is a Virginia Tech team that averaged allowing 9.3ppg and just 92.9 rushing yards per game, and the Air Force scored just 13 points. The other was georgia tech, who also runs the triple optiin and knows how to stop it, and like a lot of military teams facing each other play low scoring games, this one ended 14-7 Air Force. Over their last 10 Bowl games, the Air Force has faced 3 teams that allowed over 4 yards a carry and they scored 41,47,and 28 points against them. That is an average of 38.7ppg. Only one time did they face a team that allowed better than 5 yards per carry and they scored 47. Rice allows over 5 yards per carry, and I expect the Falcon offense to have a big day. the Air Force also brings their worst defense in their last 10 Bowl appearances to this game, allowing 28.7ppg on the season, and they have been prone to allow a lot of points to teams that don't run the triple option, as they have allowed 34.8ppg in their last 8. Rice found their offensive stride late in the season, as they won 5 of their last 6.Along the way they averaged 36.7ppg. neither of these defenses are adept at stopping what the other brings to the table on offense, and I expect this to be a very high scoring game, that tops the total. Rice is 67-33 to the over in their last 100 games. Play this one over the total.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have long been considered an offensive team. The fact is, which may surprise many here, is they are a better defensive team this year, than they are an offensive team. They are 0.6 yards per play better from the line of scrimmage than the offenses they have faced, and are 0.4 yards per play better on offense, than the defenses they have played. What clouds the issue here is the fact that they game up 50 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. The fact is they faced Baylor,Oklahoma St.,Texas, Kansas St.,TCU, Oklahoma, and West Virginia in 7 of their last games. The defense was completely worn out playng so many elite offenses in succession. The fact is their first 4 opponents scored a grand total of 43 points, or 10.8ppg. Those opponents ranked 84th to 92nd in offense. They will face a Minnesota team that is ranked 114th in ther country, and scored 17 points or less in 8 of their last 9 games, and averaged 13.8ppg in their 9 games vs defenses ranked 56th or better, or in the upper half of all teams. Texas Tech dispite the countless games vs elite offenses, finished 39th on defense. It s very likely Minnesota scores 14 or less here, and if that is the case, Texas Tech is going to have to score 45+ to put this one over the total, and noone has scored 40 on Minnesota all season, and their defense is ranked 29th. The Texas Tech offense is below average running the ball, while the minnesota defense is excellent against the pass, where they rank 11th in the counry, in fewest yards per game. The top 2 pass defenses they faced this season Oklahoma and Texas held them to 20, and 22 points. Thhis game is going to be hard pressed to reach the total. Play on the under.

This game fits several strong situations, and because it is a late addition, I won`t do a writeup so I can get it out timely, the play is on the under

The San Diego St. Aztecs have been a proficient offensive team for the entire season. They have averaged 35.1ppg but they are going to have a tall task getting anywhere near that against this BYU defense which ranks 3rd in the country behind only Alabama, and Florida St. The Aztecs have played a rather soft schedue, and while they average 35ppg, it was ahieved vs defenses that allow 30.1ppg, so they have modestly out-performed the defenses they faced. the reality is they are just 0.2 yards per play better than the opponents they have faced from on offense from the line of scrimmage. few realize they are a better defensive team, than offensive, as they are 0.4 yards per play better than the offenses they have faced. They are better at running the ball than passing, and run 66% of all plays. That is a bigger problem vs BYU who has stuffed the run all season and have been 1.2 yards better against the run, than the run attacks they have faced, and well above average against the pass as well. the Cougars have held 9 teams to 17 points or less on the season. This will be the lowest total the Aztecs have faced all season, but the 3 lowest totals they have faced this season of 49.5 twice, and 53.5 have all played under the total. Interesting to note, their 3 highest totals all played over. They have been consistent, piling up the points when expected, and not so when not expected. ByU is 11-2 in their last 13 vs a winning team to the under, and SD St. is 23-9 to the under after gaining over 200 on the ground in their last game. Play the under.

The Rutgers Scarlett Knights will host the Louisville Cardinals to determine the Big East Champion, with the prize awaiting the winner including a likely trip to the Orange Bowl. Rutgers has been one of the top defensive teams all season as they have held 8 of their 11 opponents to 15 points or less. The problem they have faced is their achillies heel offense that has produced all of 16 points in their last 2 games. This will by far be the best defense that Louisville has faced all season, and we saw how a good defense can halt this Cardinal attack last week when Louisville lost at home to Connecticut getting shutout for 3 quarters before scoring 10 in the 4th. This game is going to be intense, and physical, which usually translates to low scoring.It also fits a huge totals system that has been 87-42 to the under. make the play in this one on the under.

The Florida St. Seminoles may want to reconsider their schedule in the future. They are 10-1 but barely on the bCS radar as their schedule has been a joke. They have faced South Florida,savannah St., and Murray S. outside the ACC, and the ACC isn`t exactly a powerhuse, filled with teams that get top billing, so despite the 1 loss, there is virtually no way for them to make it to the Championship game. the sot schedule has fed their results, and what looks like an over=powering offense, is good but not as good as it looks. Their 9 games vs FBS teams has seen them play 7 games in which the defenses they faced, in terms of yards per game rank from 76-115, or have an average rank of 91.42. That is the 74th percentile in terms of worst defenses in the country, so the offense has basically had its way. add in the pair of non-FBS teams, and 9 of their 11 games were against teams that couldn`t stop much of anything. The top 2 defenses they have faced are Maryland, and Virginia Tech, neither even close to the caliber of the Florida defense. maryland allowed the Noles 397 total yards, but down to a converted linebacker at QB, the defense has worn down, and allowed more points in eaach of their last 3 games, than any games before it, so no surprise here, and they still did a good job. Virginia Tech held Florida St. to 311 yards and that includes negative yards rushing. I would expect that Florida, by far the best defense they have faced all season, will hold them to less than 300 yards. Florida St. has a top level defense, and the gators offense is horrid, and may be even worse if QB jeff Driskel isn`t 100%. This game is going to be a low scoring game, play on the under.

These teams are a mess defensively, in large part due to multiple key injuries. The Lions secondary is completel depleted. Their best defender safety Louis delmas will be out. Amari Spievey, their other safety is also out. Chris Houston suffered an ankle sprain against the Vikings, and he may play by necessity, but certainly not at 100%.The Lions other corner Bill Bentley is already out for the year, so the entire secondary, which was pedestrian to begin with is now replaced for this game, and the depth is going to be extremely challenging. meanwhle Aaron Rodgers gets back Jordie nelson and John Kuhn, to add to the already potent attack. The Packers failed to score more than 23 points in any if their first 3 games, but have not scored less than 24 since, and have averaged over 30 in their last 6 contests. The Packers have more defensive problems than the Lions. They have 6 linebackers that won`t play this game. DJ Smith who led them in tackles and had 2 sacks is on IR. Nick Perry ,Frank Zombo,Terrell Manning, and Desmond Bishop join him on the sidelines. That quintet of linebackers represents a whole lot of tackles, and 5.5 sacks. Then for good measure add in Clay Matthews and his 9.0 sacks, and just his presence is worth more than that. That is 14.5 sacks missing from the Packer defense. They are also missing Charles Woodson, and Sam Shields, so the entire back of the Packer defense is going to be challenged. Both these teams like to throw the ball, and with the back side of the defenses depleted and lacking depth, I can see the gameplan attacking all game to wear the defenses out. This game is going to be a track meet, play the over.

This is a blind total situation which has gone 85-40 over the last 7 years, and the play is on the under

This is a blind total situation which has gone 85-40 over the last 7 years, and the play is on the under

The Pittsburgh Panthers are off a spirited effort in South Bend where they had a 14 point lead late, let it slip away, and then missed a hip-shot FG in OT to bow to the unbeaten Irish. They certainly could be flat in this one, but it may not matter. The Huskies offense is pathetic, and they have not scored a single TD in the 2nd half of any of their 4 Big East games. let's take a look at the Huskies season:

UMASS: They scored 37 but that was the 3rd fewest points the winless Minutemen have allowed all season
NC STATE: Scored 7, the lowest output of any team against NC State this season
MARYLAND: Scored 24 but 7 came on a punt return, so the offense got 17, 3rd lowest allowed by MD all season
W. MICH: Scored 24 which was 3rd lowest allowed by WMU all season, who got more? Umass, and E. Illinois!
BUFFALO: scored 24, which was the 3rd fewest allowed by Buffalo this season.
RUTGERS: scored 3 fewest allowed by Rutgers all season to FBS teams
TEMPLE: scored 14, fewest allowed by temple all year
SYRACUSE: Scored 10 fewest allowed by Syracuse all season.
S. FLA: Scored 6 fewest allowed by S. Fla all year

All 4 Big east games have seen them score fewer points than the 4 teams have allowed all season. Every team has over-achieved their season results dfensively against Uconn!

They also rank in the top 15 on defense, so only one way to go here

Play this game under the total.

The Washington redskins have been an over-hyped team all season, mainly because RG3 gets a lot of ink, and has had a pretty good rookie season. This becomes an inbteresting matchup because the Panthers have last year's rookie QB sensation, Cam Newton. The points have not come as easily in the last few games for Washington, and at the same time they have played a lot tougher on defense. Their first 4 games were vs teams that are now a combined 11-18, while their last 4 have come against teams that are 22-8, and the last 4 games shows them allowing less yards, and points than they did against the bad teams. Carolina won't be the type of team to challenge the Redskins defense, as they have struggled offensively, scoring 14 points or less in 4 games. The panthers defense was horrible, but they moved Kuechley to middle linebacker, and in the last 3 games he has made 37 tackles, and the Carolina run stop unit has gotten much better. This game fits a situation that is 110-68-2 to the under, which is the call here. Play on the under.

I think there is a ton of value in this one, as detroit has the perception of being a big offensive team, as well as a poor defensive team, but both of those have changed in the opposite directon this season, and all is not as it appears. Last season the Lions went for 24 or more points in each of their last 5 games, and all together hit the 24 mark on 12 occasions. This year that number hasds been reached just twice without the benefit of overtime. They also allowed 8 of their last 9 opponents to score 27 or more a year ago, and this season just twice, although the 44 tallied vs Tennessee saw 3 of the points scored in OT and 21 points on non-offensive TD`s, so the reality is the defense allowed 20 over 60 minutes. The Lions rank as the NFL`s #8 ranked defense in yards allowed but their 25ppg allowed is tainted by 42 non-offensive points allowed, 28 allowed on special teams, and 14 defensive points against them. The Lions subsequently allow 25ppg, but the reality is the defense has allowed 19ppg, and that ranks #7 in the league. They have fixed their special teams issues, and althugh the problem can`t be ignored, there is an over-compensation here based on total points and 42 points allowed in 7 games is 6ppg, and that is unsustainable going forward. Seattle is a much different team that they werre in their first 8 games last season where they allowed 23.3ppg. Going back further, they allowed 27.3ppg fron 2010-11 season`s last 7 games to the first 8 in 2011-12. Since then, not a single team has reached or topped either average, the 23.3 or the 27.3. The Seahawks are allowing 15.8ppg over their last 15 games, and wre have seen the Detroit offense score 7 vs Chicago, 19 vs San Francisco, and 13 vs Minnesota. In the same order these teams rank 6,12, and 1 in the league defensively, and Seattle is 5th. The Seattle offense has struggled all seasson long, and this game is going to struggle to get into the 40s. I also have an under indicator which is 129-87 since 1989, and it is 5-3 this year. Play this one under the total.

The NFL has many close games, and Sunday closed with just a pair of late games, and both of them ended in overtime, and finished as 3 point games. So what happens to teams that win their last game by 3 points or less and have to take to the road, in respect to the total?

340-328-10 to the over

There is obviously nothing there and most would move on at this point, but wait a minute!

What happens if they are faciing a team that won by 10 points or more in their last game?

83-67-2 to the over or 55.3% as we start to see something interesting develop

So what if we went one more step, and made their opponent have to have won 2 straight by 10 or more points?

31-12 to the over, and suddenly we have a situation returning 72.1% on the over

We can then go and handicap the total in the game and if it is set at less than 48 it is all systems go as our system is 29-8 to the over cashing in 78.4% of the time.

We can go for the perfecto and if our team was also on the road in their last game the situation is a picture perfect:

11-0 to the over since 2001!

Play on the over

There are a lot of people that fell off the West Virginia bandwagon last week, when they were destroyed by a solid Texas Tech team. They face a similar team in Kansas St for this one. West Virginia was rambling along scoring points faster than you could keep track of. They then ran into a pair of big defenses and those huge numbers the last 2 weeks were reduced to 22.5ppg. kansas St. is equipped to run the ball right up the gut of the weak West Virginia defense, on long drives that eat up a lot of clock time to limit the opportunities for Geno Smith who has thrown 25 TD passes to 0 INT`s on the season. This game has a total set well into the 70s and I just don`t see the type of wide open game, or a West Virginia team that has proven to be lethal against bad or mediocre defenses, but somewhat average against good ones. No team this season has topped the 21 point mark against the Wildcats and that includes going to Norman Oklahoma and holding a powerful Sooner attack to 19. While I think West Virginia tops that number here, I think it is going to take a lot more than that to get this one close to an inflated number because of the west Virginia mystique. Play on the under.

There is going to be a tremendous opportunity for points to be scored in this game. Army is the #1 team in the country in rushing yards per game with an amazing 385.2 per contest, churning out 5.5 yards per carry. The Black Knights run the option, and who better to run it against than Eastern Michigan a team that allows more rushing yards against them, than any team in the nation, and allow 6,2 yards per tote on top of it, and just about 40ppg. As bad as that sounds Army is allowing 6.3 yards per carry against them and just over 36ppg. When the offense is on the field for either team, they will far and away be the best units on the field. The number here on the total just doesn`t add up to the potential points to be scored here. I think this game should easily get into the 70s, unless it turns into a turnover fest, which isn`t likely since neither team defends very well. Army has allowed 31 points or more to every FBS team they have faced this season. Army`s last 10 games vs MAC teams have seen 9 of them top the total, while the Eagles have played 8 of their last 10 vs a losing team over the total. Play this one on the over.

The expectation here is for a high scoring game, but I'm not in that camp. The public still views this Green Bay team as being a high octane offense, but thhis is not last year. teams have figured out how to stop them y playing a 2 deep, putting pressure on Rodgers, and taking advantage of the Green Bay offensive line, that can't pass protect. The packers lack of running game, and lack of pass protection has forced Rodgers to be dumping off underneath coverage for small gains. That has lowered his yards per attempt from 9.2 a year ago, to 6.9 this season. At the same time if the opponent doesn't stop the Packers they stop themselves already commiting 40 penalties for 390 yards in 5 games. Houston has a big defense that has 16 sacks, and allows a QB rating of 62.80, so this will not be the place for the Packer offense to shine, especially without WR Greg Jennings. The Houston offense ranks just 14th, but that is part because they have gotten big leads and played keep away, but the Packers defense resembles the 2010-11 version, not last year's and they have been tough. All in all this game is supposed to be high scoring, but when these teams have the ball, in each case, the defense will be the best unit on the field. Play under the total.

There is a consensus of opinion for this game to play over the total, yet the total has dropped a few points from the opener. there are some strong indicators that I like and will point to, that has me riding with the line move in this one. First off, Rice QB Taylor Mchargue missed last game with a shoulder injury, and he prfacticed this week, and although he is listed as questionable, he will play against Memphis. I can't help but think they will alter the game plan to involve more running here. last year he was limited to 170 yards vs Memphis in a low scoring 28-6 win. That game was played to a similar total of 58, and went way under. then there is Rice QB Jacom Karam who considered Rice when he transferred from Texas Tech who considered Rice because his 4a Texas Championship team top reciever Andre Gautreaux was there. They bring a lot of info about each other, which could inhibit a pair of key players on each offensive side. Then there is Rice CB Phillip Gaines who is the top shutdown corner in NCAAF this year with 12 pass breakups. memphis has a pair of recievers who have caught 41 of the 65 receptions the team has on the season, so shutting down one, certainly inhibits the passing game. i also have a very favorable totals situation for this one which has connected on the under over 60% of the time. Under gets the call in this one.

The Denver Broncos are excited to ave Peyton Manning at QB, but it is clear he is not the same. Last week he threw for 3 INT`s and while his accuracy is good, he is throwing a lot of check-offs, and his yard per attempt vs Atlanta was just 5.89. It is quite noticeable when he has to make the tough passes, he has to try and muscle the football, and he is throwing a lot of flutter balls, so the defenses are starting to jump the routes against him. Houston will present even bigger problems as they will be the best overall defense the Broncos have faced this season. The Txans have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL through 2 weeks. they have not had a difficult challenge yet, but remember last year they finished ranked #2, so this defense is legit. The Houston offense has scored 57 points, but a bit misleading as their ground game has been halted to 3.6 yards per carry. They are scoring because their defense facing weak offenses, has gotten many 3 and outs, and they have averaged 39 minutes of possession to 21 for their opponents through 2 weeks, and that simply is unsustainable. This game fits several positive situations as well on the under, one that is 19-2 and a perfect subset of 14-0 to the under. I also have another that has been more reliable that shows 125-86 to the under, and one that is also 58-21 to the under. Play this one on the under.

The Georgia Bulldogs cme into their game with Vanderbilt at 3-0 and have a chance to make some noise in the SEC. Vandy got their first win 56-0 over lowly Presbyterian in their last game, after failing offensively vs orthwestern and South Carolina, combining to score just 26 points in the losses. The Commodores have the 11th ranked defense in NCAAF, and that side of the ball has been terrific as they have not allowed a single opponent to score over 34 points in any of their last 15 games. The problem is an offense that over their last 12 SEC road games has produced an average of 12.1ppg. Two years ago they cae to play Georgia between the Hedges, and failed to score at all. The top and bottom for this Vandy team shows max allowed 34, and average scored 12, for 46 total points, and that is high end, so the value here is on the under. georgia has played well defensively, and will only get better, and Vandy has enough on defense to hold the Bulldogs down in this one. This game also applies to an under situation that has one 84-47 the last 6 years and is live on this game. Play this one under the total.

10 Top Total Play

The long awaited NFL regular season is here. The Detroit Lions will open their season at home with great anticipation, as they play host to the St. Louis Rams. The Lions are loved by the public as they back them to play over almost every game they play, despite the fact that 5 of their last 7 at home have played under the total. Thiis is not a good defensive team but they are better at home, especially against meager offenses. last year they played 4 teams ranked in the top 10 in offense at home and allowed 23.8ppg. They also played 3 ranked in the bottom 10 and allowed 13.7ppg. The rams have had little offense for years, and nothing they did in the off-season will change that. The bad offense gets even worse on the road where they have scored 84 points total in their last 10 road games for a woeful 8.4ppg. The defense over that same period has not allowed any team to top the 34 point mark. last year when the Lions played the most comparable poor offense at home in kansas City (13.2ppg vs St. Louis 12.2ppg)THE Lions kept the Chiefs out of the end-zone the entire game, allowing just a FG. oddsmakers have come out with high totals because the public saw last year hat week 1 totals went 12-3-1 and they cashed in big! That was a strike shortened pre-season which inhibits the physical condition of teams, and that effects defense more than offense. The previous 8 years have seen the under go 77-50 in week one, and the 127 games have averaged over 3 points a game lower than the posted totals. There is a lot of reasons here, including the fact that 67% of the public is on the over in this one, more than any other game. That being said, the total has dropped 1.5 points from the opener of 45.5! Guess where the smart money is? play this one under the total.

The USC trojans have one result that will be acceptable for them this season, and that is winning a national championship. Anything short of that will be a disappointment. They got underway in that quest last week with an easy win over Hawaii 49-10. The Trojans built a 35-0 halftime lead and then just coasted through the 2nd half. This week they travel to East Rutherford, NJ to take on Syracuse at a neutral site. QB Matt Barkley shunned the NFL draft to return to win a championship, and maybe a Heisman for good measure. he threw 4 TD passes last week, and this game will be played on his 22nd birthday, and you know he and his teammates are going to want to make it memorable. Last year USC beat Syracuse 38-17 when the entire schedule was meaningless because of probation, being in eyesight of NY City is going to have the Trojans ready to make a huge offensive statement here, against a Cuse team that scored 41 last week, and lost to Northwestern. Syracuse will be putting the ball in the air on almost every play, as they did last week, throwing 65 times, for 470 yards, so they are going to get some points here. nassib completed 25-37 last year against USC. This game is a showcase for Barkley & Co. and they will at least be in the 50s here, and the Cuse is goiing to get their share. Play the over on this one.

The San Francisco 49ers have been all about defense this season. Alex Smith has had a breakout season but despite of that the Niners finished ranked just 26th in the league on offense. The Giants defense was pounded for an average of over 40ppg in a 3 week period by some good offenses, but has since patched up the hokes and has been a top 10 defense since. The weather here will be a major factor as heavy rains are pounding the bay area, but it isn't just the rain, the wind will be the biggest factor gusting t oover 50 MPH at times. That will reek havoc on the passing game and kicking games.

From the National Weather service:

A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL
HILLS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

While the stronger winds are forecast for this evening and tonight gusts to 35MPH during the game are likely. Play this one under the total

The Baltimore Ravens are considered a big defensive team in the NFL.I ould agree to that in their past, but the numbers are very misleading this season. The Ravens faced the following offenses this season:

#32 Jacksonville

#31 St. Louis

#30 Indianapolis

#29 Cleveland

#29 Cleveland

#28 Seattle

#26 San Francisco

#25 NY Jets

#20 Cincinnati

#20 Cincinnati

#19 Arizona

#17 Tennessee

#13 Houston (which without Schaub is much lower)

teams that allow less than 15 points a game are 15-8 to the over and 8-1 to the over from week 20 on. Teams that average better than 30ppg are 10-5 to the over and 5-1 to the over if they scored 40+ in their last game. Teams that allow less than 15 points a game and held their last playoff opponent to less than that season average are 4-0 to the over in their next playoff game. Play the over in this one.

The Green Bay Packers have been lethal behind the accurate throws of Aaron Rodgers and a cast of talented recievers. The problem is their defense ranks last in the league. The packers have played 3 home games s teams in the playoffs this season and the points scored in those 3 games were 76,72, and 86. This total is way to low especially with Eli Manning having the hot hand and facing a defense he torched for 347 yards and 3 TD`s just over a month ago. Play this one over the total.

The New Orleans Saints have been a scoring machine as they have scored 42 or more points in each of their last 4 games. All of those were vs weask defenses, and all of them were on turf. Their scoring at home this year was off the charts at 41.ppg but they scored 2 TD`s less on the road at 27.3ppg. The Saints have won 9 straight and 8 of the 9 show defenses that were ranked 20th or worse. The other team, Atlanta ranked 12th overall bt 20th against the pass. Things won`t come so easy here vs the #4 Niner defense, which ranked 16th vs the pass, but a closer look is revealing. The Niners finished 13-3 and had leads in most of their games late forvcing teams to the air, while they gave up late points after letting down. San Francisco allowed 14.3ppg but 104 of their 229 points allowed came in the 4th quarter when they didn`t play with the same resolve. That means they allowed 125 points through 3 quarters of prime time focused football. That would be 10ppg carried through 4 quarters. The Niner offense is not great but servicable, and the Saints have been much better of late on defense. Do I do my homework? You bet. here are the list of teams off of scoring 40 in a playoff game, and how many they scored the following playoff game in the same year (OT points not included)

Seattle 41 24
GB 48 21
AZ 51 14
NO 45 28
GB 42 20
IND 49 3
ATL 47 10
NE 41 24
IND 41 38
NYJ 41 10
OAK 41 21
STL 45 29
NYG 41 7
JAX 62 14
MINN 41 27
DEN 42 14
DALL 40 17
PITT 42 3
PHIL 58 11
PITT 40 20
____________________________

That is the last 20 times a team has scored 40 in a playoff game back to 1995-96. Their scoring game to game went from 898 to 358 or from 44.9ppg to 17.8ppg. You read that right a 27.1ppg difference on the negative side, and if you look at the teams there were plenty of Hall of Fame QB`s in the mix that were hot in their prime, and having great seasons. The bottomline here is this is a high inflated total because the Saints are unstoppable, which is true until today, just like the greatest show on turef found out when they scored 11 against the Bucs, remember that one? Play the under.

The Arkansas Red Wolves have some coaching issues for this game. Their new head coach will be Gus Malzahn, the former offensive coordinator at Auburn. Hugh Freeze parlayed his sucess at Arkansas St. into the head job at Ole Miss. Malzahn will not be on the sidelines for this game, and he asked the inerim head coach David Gunn to return to the staff and coach this game. Talk about a lame-duck coach. Northern Illinois is all about Chandler Harnish. he led the MAC at rushing for 112.6ypg as well as passing for an additional 2,692 more. The Northern Illinois offensive line has not allowed a single sack all season. They will meet an imposing force in the Arkansas St. defense that ranks #20 of all teams and allows just 19.3ppg. They allowed just 26 in a game earlier this season at Virginia Tech, so the Wolves can play some defense. They held Tech's David Wilson (1,713 yards on the season) to 88 yards on 21 carries. red Wolves also have 16 INT's in their last 9 games. Brandon Joiner is a legit NFL draft pick on the Red Wolves defensive line, he had 12.5 sacks on the season and 15.5 tackles for a loss. Darryl feemster had 5 INT's on the season as well. Arkansas St. is 16-4-2 to the under in their last 22 vs a winning team and Northern Illinois is 7-1 to the under in their last 8 at a neutral site. We have seen 15 teams enter their bowl game allowing less than 20 points on the season this year, and despite some huge scores, just 2 of the 14 have played in a game totalling more than 65 points, and 10 of the 14 played to 57 or less. Value is on the under, and so is the play in this one. Play on the under.

This is strictly a situational under that is 47-27, play on the under

This is from a pair of under Bowl situations one has gone 9-0, play on the under

This is a situational system that is 47-27 in Bowls to the under. Play this one under the total.

This is from an unbeaten Bowl angle, play on the under

This one is strictly a situational play that has historic results of close to 65%. Play on the under

The Green Bay Packers lost for the first time in 20 games last week at Kansas City. They come home needing 1 more win to clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Packers have been an offensive machine at home, where they have scored 35ppg in their last 17 home games on average, and this season they are above that at 40.3ppg, so just on pure average they can just about cover this total themselves. The Bears are a mess offensively, but the Packer defense just isn't good enough to keep even the Chiefs out of the end-zone who scored 19 against them. The Chiefs hadn't scored more than 13 in any game for 7 weeks, so the Bears will likely get some points here. despite the reduced offense the Bears have still played 5 of their last 7 to the over, and Green bay is now 24-9 to the over in their last 33 as a home favorite. Play this one over the total.

Strictly a system play that is 47-27 to the UNDER in Bowl games play on the under

The Miami Dolphins after an 0-7 start have really come on, and the defense has played as well as any in the league. Miami has played 13 games and 6 of them, almost half, have been against the top 9 offenses in the league. When they have faced a team outside the top 9, they have allowed 13.3ppg, and juast 8.5ppg vs the last 4 they have played as the defense is on the improve. The bad part for Miami, is they have topped the 20 point mark just 3 times in their last 12 games. Buffalo opened the season 5-2 and appeared to be a real playoff threat, but have since lost 6 straight. The offense through the first 7 was averaging 30.1ppg, but over the last 6 ust 12.8ppg. it is going to be tough for these teams to get to 40 in this one, and the total is set to high. Miami now 10-1-1 to the under in their last 12 games and 21-6 to the under in their last 27 on the road, and have played 8 straight to the under as a dog. Buffalo now 22-8 to the under in their last 30 as a home do, with the wind, and cold in Buffalo in december seeing the Bills go 10-1 to the under in their last 11 December games. Under is the play.

The UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns had a very good season finishing an unexpected 8-4 on the season. two of the losses came at the expense of BCS Conference teams, so they have played 8-2 on their own level. The season was made possible by the maturation of QB Blaine Gautier who threw for 20 TD's and just 5 INT's, generating 8.2 yards per attempt. While the running game wasn't great they virtually equalled the output of the passing game with 19 TD's scored on the ground. Gautier is an equal threat to run and the second leading ground gainer, with over 100 attempts, so they are not easy to defend. desoite playing in the Sun belt they faced the #22 ranked defense in UL Monroe and scored 36, and got 36 against the #33 defense of FIU. This team can score and San Diego St. is a mid level defense. The problem is they will have to as the defnse surrendered 34.4ppg in their last 5. San Diego St. has a pretty good QB of their own in Ryan lindley who also threw for 20 TD's with just 8 INT's. The Aztecs also have the top running back in yards in the country in Ronnie Hillman at 1,656 yards and 19 TD's. This team scored 35 on Boise St., and went for over 30 on 7 occasions this season, including the last 3. Their problem, like UL Lafayette is the Bowl teams on their schedule went for 33ppg. Look for a shootout in the New Orleans Bowl, and play the over.

This is strictly a system play of which will qualify for 6 games going forward during the Bowl season. This is a total system that is 51-24-3 ATS in Bowl games, and the play here is on the under.

The Jacksonville Jaguars went into their game last week vs the Tampa Bay Bucs not having scored more than 20 points all season long, and hung a 41 against them.That has gfiven a lift to the total here in this one, but the reality is, this is still a horrible offensive team. Despite the 41 points a week ago, the Jacksonville offense only gained 325 yards on 66 plays at less than 5 yards per play. The Jags have been home for 3 straight games, and life on the road for a bad team can be ugly. The Jags average all of 11ppg on the road in 6 games this season. Atlanta has been a much better team at home where they allow less than 20ppg over their last 11 regular season games played here. That list includes 5 pretty good offensive teams in Green Bay,New Orleans twice, Philadelphia, and Carolina this season.

SITUATION REVEALED:

Teams playing as a home favorite in an NFL Thursday game with the line more than -8 have seen their games go 17-3 to the under, and that includes the last 9 not seeing the opponent top the 10 point mark. If the total in the game is set at 39.5 points or higher the total is a picture perfect 13-0 to the under! Make the play on the under in this one.

This is one of my favorite games to watch of all. there is such a long history and tradition associated with this game that began way back in 1890. here is something that most probabl don't realize. A series that goes back over 120 years, how many times have these teams combine to score at least 56 points? The answer will likely shock and amaze you. It is 4! There are some reasons. Going way back teams simply didn't score that much, but in the last few decades that certainly has changed, but what hasn't changed is the intensity of this rivalry. Intensity=defense, and when you get a pair of teams that are both going to run the ball over 90% of the time, you have fewer plays run in the game. Both these teams see the option offense every single day, so they certainly get a long dress rehersal how to stop it, which is usually the case. When the pointspread in this game is posted at a TD or more, as we have here, the total has never failed to go over. It is 14-0-1 to the under since 1984! What will make matters more difficult, is Army QB trent Steelman has been in and out of games the last few weeks, and the Army offense has been hurting without him scoring 13.3ppg over their last 3. Steelman hurt his leg in the last game on top of a high ankle sprain. He will play, but will certainly not be 100%. Army is off a bye in which they are 10-2 to the under in their last 12. Navy is 18-6 to the under following an ATS loss, as well as a picture perfect 6-0 to the under as a nuetral site favorite in their last 6, and Army 8-1 under in their last 9 neutral site games, and 6-0 under in their last 6 December games. This is my NCAA Football total of the year ON THE UNDER

The Steelers defense his hit their stride and currently rank #1 in the league. The Browns have really struggled to move the ball, and are amongst the worst teams in the league scoring points, while the defense is respectful. The last 15 games Pittsburgh has played at home vs a team with a losing record they are 11-4 to the under holding 12 of the 15 teams to 10 points or less, while scoring 31 at best. The average points scored in these games has been 30.4ppg well under what is posted here for this one. This is also one of the toughest places for kicking FG's in the league. Cleveland is now 18-6-2 to the under in their last 26 December games. Thursday NFL games with a total from 35-42 have seen them go 35-18 to the under the last 21 years, and 4-10 to the under if the line is greater than -6. Home favorites on Thursday Night in the NFL that feature a home favorite with a winning percentage of greater than .700 have gone 5-0 to the under. UNDER is the play here.

This one is purely a situational sizzler that has been 19-1 to the over doesn't come up much but when it does it is pretty powerful. Play the over here.

The Philadelphia Eagles played themselves out of a potential playoff spot last week, losing at home to New Engand for their 7th loss. What was supposed to be the "Dream Season" has become a nightmare, and it now figures that long tenured coach Andy reid may be on the hot seat in Philadelphia. The last 2 games were played without QB Michael Vick, and leSean McCoy is nursing a bad toe, which hampered him vs New England where he generated just 31 yards on 10 carries. Vince Young has struggled at QB with 3 TD's and 5 INT's and 37 points in his 2 starts since the Vick injury. Seattle was looking good offensively last week, but then Sidney Rice suffered his 2nd concussion in just 3 weeks, and the Seattle offense left the field with him. A short week of rest is going to make any alterations difficult, and I expect a lot of running here by Seattle. I also have a situation that is 92-59 to the under that is also 2-1 this season, and that is my pick here, play UNDER the total.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are likely to be flat in this game and that usually means a lack of defensive intensity, and I expect the Chiefs who are off a dismal performance vs new England on the road to sterp things up on their home field. teams that score 6 or less points in their last game play over in their next game to an 82-62 mark. teams playing as a home dog of 10.5-14 points are 40-25 to the over as well. The Steelers have been over to a 20-8 mark in their last 28 as a road favorite, as well as 8-2 to the over after an ATS win. This series has also generated 5 straight to the over, as well as the last 4 played in KC. OVER is the pick.

I went deep into this series, which arguably is the most intense, hated, and heated rivalries in NCAA sports. There is a word that can be used in tandom when it comes with college football. Intensity = DEFENSE! This series has epitomized defense. The last 28 meetings dating back to 1978, there has never been more than 58 points scored between both teams in any one game. This series has seen some potent offensive players that have not been able to move the defenses against them. Joe Namath won his senior year 21-14. Kenny Stabler won 7-3. Heisman trophy winner Pat Sullivan led his team to all of 7 points. The great Bo Jackson won 23-22 but lost the following year 17-15. Jason campbell won 21-13. The list is endless, an offensive graveyard. This total has been posted at 47. What does that mean?

The last 35 years of this series has seen just 7 times the total points scored in this game reach 48 or more, that is 20% of the time.

When at least 1 team comes into this game with 0 or 1 losses (ALABAMA 10-1), the under is 9-2-1

When there is at least a 3 game differential between the teams in won/lost records ALA 10-1 AUB 7-4 so ALA 3 games better.... the under is 10-1-1

When the total has been posted at 40 or higher the under is 12-1-1

AVG TOTAL POSTED IN THIS GAME = 41.1ppg

AVG POINTS SCORED IN THIS GAME = 36.1ppg

That means there is a 5pt avg intensity value that the oddsmakers have simply neglected over the years.

UNDER is the play in this one.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have really fallen on hard times in the Big-10. They have been bottom feeding for 2 years now, and it is easy to see why. They have allowed 21 points or more in their 15 Big-10 tilts the last 2 years, and an average of 35.7ppg. That certainly makes a low total atrractive in this one. Illinois has scored just 11.8ppg in their last 5look to be offensively challenged here, but a closer look at those 5 games is very revealing. They have faced the following 5 defensive ranks: 6,14,8,17,and 70 or an average defensie ank of #23 or in the 18th percentile on average of all teams. Their previous 6 games saw them average 34.7ppg, so it is very reasonable to see this team get that 35 point average vs a team that has allowed on average 36ppg in their last 15 Big-10 contests. The Gophers have scored 13 or more in every Big-10 game this season, so very resonable to expect that here. That combination projects 48-50 points here in this one, and the Illini have poured it on as a 10.5 point favorite or more in their last 10 going over to a 7-2-1 mark and this year averaging 38.3ppg in this situation. Gopghers coughing up the points at an alarming rate as a home dog, leading to a 19-6-1 mark to the over in their last 26 as home pups. This one goes over the total.

The San Francisco 49ers are the surorise team in the NFL this season at 9-1. These are two defense first teams and the Ravens are good at stopping mediocre offenses, and as steady as Alex Smith has been, when he has faced top pass defenses this year he is very pedestrian. he passed against 3 such defenses this season and managed just 446 passing yards combined in the 3 games. He will see a 4th tonight in Baltimore, and I expect the Niner offense to struggle. The ravens have had their own prolems vs good defenses, and a few weeks back needed 2.5 quarters to generate a 1st down against a very good Jacksonville defense. Thursday NFL games with a home favorite have been 25-42 to the over, so the under certainly has historic support as well. Those numbers move to 14-27 over if the line is -4 or less. I'll play this one under the total.

The Texas Longhorns offense leaves a little to be desired. To top that off they are playing short of running backs due to injuries, and their top wide reciever is ailing as well. Texas A&M is 6-5 but when you look at the schedule and how competitive they have been against very good 2-way teams that play defense and offense, they are a clearcut favorite here especially at home. They have a defese every bit the equsl to Texas so I expect the points to be at a premium here. They have managed just 18 total points the last 2 weeks. I don't see either team making it to 30 points here, and with a total in the mid 50s the call here is on the under.

Last year the Miami,O. red Hawks won 10 games off a 1 win campaign 2 years ago. This team has slipped back once again, and after losing last week, they are not going to a Bowl this year, and a lot of times team's letdown in this situation, which usually means a lack of focus on the defensive side of things. The offense has picked it up in the last 5 games averaging just shy of 30ppg. Ohio, U. sits atop the MAC at 8-3 and destined for a playoff for the title vs either N. Illinois or Toledo. The Bobcats have also found their offense averaging 36ppg over their last 4. The total here is set on the low side considering each of these teams is plenty capeable of 30+ in this contest, and I'm playing this one over the total.

I'm running late OVER is the play

I'm running late OVER is the play