Sports Picks & Predictions

This is strictly a weather play. The weather today in Palo Alto, CA calls for showers, but more importantly sustained winds of 25 MPH with gusts in the 30s. Both teams rely on the passing game which will be slowed by the windy conditions. Make the play on the under.

Both of these teams average over 40 points per game, so that certainly looks like the over is a good take. However, I think the fact that both these teams are coming off their bye, and 13 days to prepare that changes things, as the defenses have had a lot of time to prepare. Games with both teams coming off a bye with a total of 63 or more points with the home team favored are 3-13-1 O/U. They have failed to go over the total by an average of 11.88ppg. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 107-56 ATS. The play is under the total.

This game fits a total situation hat is 77-36 ATS and the play is on the under.

This total caps out at 60.5 and a situation that is 77-41 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game fits my strongest situation in any sport which is 501-260-16 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This is a weather play with winds enough to limit the passing game. The play is on the under.

Kent St. heads to Miami for a conference game with both teams off to a 2-3 start. Kent St. has played a strong schedule facing Washington, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Kent St. scored 20 on Washington and 22 on Georgia. The offense scored just 31 points last game, but that is very misleading as the Golden Flashes put up 737 yards of offense. Miami, O. is going to score in this game as the Kent St. defense is not that good. This game fits a situation that is 81-48 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

This game is from my all-time best situation for totals and is now 496-254-16 ATS. Make the play on the under.

I'm not sure what has happened in Colorado in terms of football. Colorado St. and Colorado are a combined 0-9 and both have been out-scored by over 30ppg. Colorado St. has seen the top 2 receivers leave the team, and now QB Clay Millen is likely out as well. The Colorado St. offensive line is surrendering 6 sacks per game, and now have an inexperienced QB for this one. Nevada has an even worse offense at 4.1 yards per play on the season, which is almost 2 yards worse than the average of the defenses they have faced. Colorado St. despite allowing 41 points per game has actually been even at the line of scrimmage. I don't see a lot of points in this one and will make the play on the under.

The New England Patriots took a blow when Mac Jones went down with a shoulder injury. I think back to last year when Bill Belichick took his team to Buffalo and played the game in high winds. His game plan was to run the ball on every down, and the Pats ended up throwing 3 passes in the game for an upset win in Buffalo. Maybe the strategy won't be as extreme here, but he knows he is facing a future HOF QB in Aaron Rodgers, and he is likely going to take the air out of the ball and run often. Green Bay is considered an offensive power with Rodgers but with no true go to guy the Packers offense has struggled to 16ppg. I see a defensive struggle in this one and will make the play under the total.

This game fits one of my strongest NFL total situations. This game applies to a total situation that is 68-16 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

Georgia Tech is 1-3 and has of yet beaten an FBS team where they are 0-3. The offense in their 3 games vs FBS opponents is scoring an average of 6.7ppg. It is unlikely they find answers against this Pitt teams that averages out better defensively than the 3 opponents Georgia Tech has played. That would mean Pitt would have to do some heavy lifting on offense, but Tech is an above average defense that should keep Pitt from rolling up a big score. Throw in a situation that is 77-45 ATS to the under and this is a rather strong play. Make the play on the under.

This game comes from my strongest totals situation. Make the play on the under.

Both Denver and San Francisco have played 2 games under the total. They have both showed some strong defense and at the same time neither offense has looked very impressive. Their games have combined to average about 40 total points. This game features Denver at home and early in the season. Looking at all Denver home games through week3 the over covers 61.1% of all games. I think a good part of that is defenses are in full game shape early in the season and the high altitude makes that worse. I expect a lot more offense in this one. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation that is 172-117 ATS to the under, and I like the fact that both teams have their season on the line which usually means intense battles at the line of scrimmage. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a total situation that is 52-13 ATS and the play is on the over.

My ultimate total situation in NCAAF I bet blindly, because it is that strong. It is 580-318-19 ATS in all games, but even stronger when there is not an FCS team involved. It moves to 506-241-2 ATS! Make the play on the UNDER.

The Minnesota Vikings shocked the Green Bay Packers last week holding them to 7 points. They generated 23 points in that game, but generated close to 400 yards of offensive, indicative of more points. Philadelphia was in a shootout with the Lions where they survived 38-35. I think we are heading for another shootout here. The Vikings faced a team down 3 offensive linemen, and their 3 top receivers from a year ago. It won`t be so easy this week. Especially with a Monday Night week 2 situation that is 37-9 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over in this one.

Last week the Detroit Lions put up 35 points on the Philadelphia Eagles. It wasn't enough to win as they allowed 38, and the game saw 850 total yards. Washington also over-achieved their expected offense, and under-performed on defense. We have a pair of teams here that are heading for another 50+ point combined score. Bigger than all that is a huge 113-53 ATS total situation that has gone decisively to the over. Make the play over the total.

I think these teams both have weapons but the Dolphins defense is going to be one of the top in the league. They were impressive last week allowing New England just 271 total yards, 7 points, and 3 turnovers. Baltimore allowed just 9 points to the Jets. Many will look at the 295 yards passing and say the Ravens are in trouble, but those yards took 59 pass attempts to create, or just 5 ypa, which is well below average. The Jets managed just 9 points. This game is setting up to be a lot more defensive than the total is suggesting, and it is supported by a 138-71 ATS situation to the under. Make the play under the total.

It has been a mixed bag so far for San Diego St. and Utah. They will each take the field at 1-1 so this becomes a crucial game for both teams. San Diego St. has won 10 or more games in 5 of the last 7 years. This has been a defense first team since the start of the 2014 season as the Aztecs are 63-37-3 ATS to the under in their last 113 games.They have allowed fewer than 20ppg over the period. They have faced 12 Pac-12 opponents holding them to a combined 25ppg. Based on the fact that Utah is a 3 TD favorite the under has my interest here. San Diego St. has been a double-digit dog 3 times vs Pac-12 teams and all the games went under the total. They are also in a great historic spot for a low scoring game, as several situations point that way including a 32-3-6 ATS situation on the under.Make the play on the under in this one.

UL Lafayette has opened the season at 2-0. They have faced some soft competition thus far. One thing they have done is not turn the ball over. The Ragin Cajuns own a 5-0 turnover advantage in their first 2 games. Rice was destroyed as expected by USC and then destroyed McNeese St. as expected. That doesn't offer much in the way this game will be played. History has a lot more to say as multiple situations favor a low scoring game led by a 32-3-6 ATS situation playing on the under. Make the play on the under.

There are not a lot of NCAAF totals that get posted at 40 or fewer points. This game is one of them, and rightfully so, and I think it is still significantly high. Iowa has an offense that is significantly below average, while New Mexico has defended quite well. Iowa has a defense that could very well shutout the Lobos, while the Iowa offense is extremely bad. I could easily see the total points here coming in the high 20s, to low 30s. There is historical support as well as this game fits an under situation that is 77-48 ATS. Make the play on the under.

Georgia Southern has run the triple option for many years, but coach Clay Helton has changed that. The Eagles have completely changed the offense from the slow methodical and almost exclusive running game, to a wide open spread the field fast paced passing attack. They are snapping the ball over 80 times a game and has averaged 51 passing attempts per contest. They used that offense to spring a huge upset at Nebraska 45-42. The Eagles put up 666 total yards vs the P5 Nebraska team. UAB is a solid defensive team, but Georgia Southern is going to score some points here as a double-digit dog, and UAB will be moving the ball against a very pedestrian defense. I don't think the public or the odds makers have caught up to this extreme change yet. Make the play on the over.

Tulane and Kansas St. come into this game at 2-0, so the winner will emerge 3-0 and feeling pretty good. Both these teams have faced offenses that are not very challenging, and through 2 games each, in total 4 games they have combined to allow just 22 total points. Both offenses are led by the run as they have combined for 171 runs vs just 92 passes. I think the clock will be moving as each tries to take control with the running game. This game fits a lot of situations that are strong indicators of a low scoring game, one of which is 32-3-6 ATS to the under. I favor a low scoring game here and will make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 50-12-1 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

This game fits an opening week total situation that is 47-19 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

A game with a line of -30 or more points and a total of fewer than 50 points have played 82-38-1 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over.

I have a lot of betting systems, or what I prefer to call situations. I use most of them to guide me to look at specific qualifying games. There are a chosen few that I use because the system is long-term and has ridiculously strong results. This game qualifies as one such game. This particular situation is 80-37-2 ATS to the OVER, and if it is prior to week 9 of the season it is a ridiculous 70-25-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play on the OVER.

I have a lot of betting systems, or what I prefer to call situations. I use most of them to guide me to look at specific qualifying games. There are a chosen few that I use because the system is long-term and has ridiculously strong results. This game qualifies as one such game. This particular situation is 80-37-2 ATS to the OVER, and if it is prior to week 9 of the season it is a ridiculous 70-25-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play on the OVER.

I have a lot of betting systems, or what I prefer to call situations. I use most of them to guide me to look at specific qualifying games. There are a chosen few that I use because the system is long-term and has ridiculously strong results. This game qualifies as one such game. This particular situation is 80-37-2 ATS to the OVER, and if it is prior to week 9 of the season it is a ridiculous 70-25-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play on the OVER.

Oklahoma St. will begin a new era as they open their 2022 season vs Central Michigan. Spencer Sanders is an improving duel threat QB, but his offensive line took a hit, as did the running back situation. It won't be as easy this year. The one thing that happened last year is the rebranding of the Oklahoma St. philosophy. They won games on defense. The receivers are young and talented, but I think the offense will be better as the season goes on. The Oklahoma St. defense is going to be strong up front, but has some question marks in the secondary. Central Michigan QB Daniel Richardson lost his top 2 receivers from a year ago. Lew Nichols will be asked to carry the load as he had 2,186 total yards (1,848 on the ground) and 18 TDs a year ago. I think he will get a heavy load but the Cowboy's excel up front. I think the clock will be moving quickly here, and I like the under.

The Buffalo Bills are an alluring team after last week. Buffalo scored on every drive except a kneel down on their last possession. They played a perfect game with 7 straight Td drives, no punts, no turnovers. So they immediately become a sexy pick. The Chiefs may have something to say about that. Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City offense can score in bunches and quickly, and while the offense seems to be the talking point, the defense has better and healthier players, and looks completely different than it did in the beginning of the season. They have become a bonafide top 10 defense. While the Bills offense was perfect last week, the defense has been the strength of this team, and while it looks like both offenses are clicking right now, I think the defenses are going to have more to say than the offenses. This total is suggesting a shootout, and I don't think this game gets there. It fits a playoff total situation that is 39-17 ATS, and I will play under the total.

This game is purely situational. It fits a total situation that is 33-7 ATS in bowl games. Make the play on the under.

This game is based on a very strong 45-11 ATS Bowl total situation. The play is on the over.

Right now I am staying about 15 minutes from the Myrtle Beach Bowl. It was 35 degrees this morning, and the high is projected to be in the upper 40s. It was 78 here 2 days ago. The key factor will be the wind blowing steady ar 16 MPH and gusting to 25. This is going to turn into more of a clock chewing running game, and the kicking game will be impacted as well. I'm going under the total.

This pick is strictly system based. I don't typically play situations blindly unless they are very strong. This one is 87-38 ATS and the play is on the UNDER.

LA Lafayette has had a great run this season at 12-1, and look to close out the season with 13 wins, and have a quasi-home game to do it in. The Ragin Cajuns have been led by a defense that allows just 18.3ppg and in 2 big games vs Liberty and Appalachian St. they allowed 14, and 16 respectively. The defense has grown as the season has moved forward and LA Lafayette has allowed 16ppg over their last 6. Marshall was no match for the powerful offense of W. Kentucky but has otherwise held up very well allowing 15.5ppg in their 4 previous to W. Kentucky. Marshall was slowed by the better teams on its schedule having gone just 2-5 on the season, and a dead heat in total yards. LA Lafayette was 10-3 to the under this season, and I have an 85-44 ATS under situation for this game that is also 22-9 ATS in Bowl games, to the under. Make the play on the under.

Bahamas Bowl - Thomas Robinson Stadium - Nassau,

The Bowl season gets underway when Toledo (7-5) takes on Middle Tennessee St. (6-6). Middle Tennessee sure has some issues at QB as they are down to their 4th string QB as Chase Cunningham, Alec Ogden, and Bailey Hockman are all declared out. This is going to be a game decided by who can win the battle between the potent Toledo running game, and a Middle Tennessee run stop unit that did not allow 100 yard rusher in their last 7 games. Wind will be at least a slight factor as they are projected at 16 MPH with higher gusts, just enough to have some impact. There is one area of this game that is far under the radar. These teams have combined this season for 16 special teams or defensive touchdowns. That amounts to 112 points or 56 per team. Both teams finished plus double-digits in turnover margin, so there is a lot of scoring by these teams that was unrelated to the offense and I think the total here is not where it should be. Both teams are going to want to run the ball which should help to shorten the game as well. I like the under in this one.

This game is based on one of my favorite and most reliable total situations. If you play on the under when a team enters the game off a road favorite loss of 10 points or more from game 4 on they are 175-110-6 ATS to the under. If their opponent is off a loss the under is 37-6-1 ATS to the under, including 28-3 ATS in the last 31 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

This game makes little sense. Both teams will be starting back up QB's and the Lions from week 2 on have yet to score 20 points in a game. Tim Boyle threw for 77 yards last week and 2 INT's, and now the Bears go with back up Andy Dalton (who is better than Fields by the way). The Bears defense is bad enough for even Boyle and the inept Lions to do something, and Dalton is an upgrade for the Bears offense. This game seems so obvious it should stay under the total, and I have seen games like this all too often where weird things happen and the expected quickly goes sideways. I like the over in this one.

Aaron Rodgers at QB tends to say offense, but the Packer offense has been sputtering all season. They rank in the bottom third of the league. The last 5 games has the Green Bay offense averaging just 19.2ppg. Meanwhile the Packers who have been labeled an offensive team during the Rodgers era have become one of the top defenses in the league. Green Bay has held its last 5 opponents to 11.6ppg.The Packers have in fact played 7 straight games to the under. No opponent in that stretch has scored more than 22 points against them. The Packers have not topped the 27 point mark in any of the 7 games either, and collectively the 7 Packer games have averaged just 35 total points. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 to the under holding 5 opponents to 20 or fewer points. The Packers are 4-1 to the under in its last 5 played in Minnesota with the average total score being fewer than 41 points. This game also fits a situation that is 50-15 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

When you think of Ole Miss you immediately think of high scoring games. They have played to lofty totals all season, but their games have not been as explosive as the odds-makers have suggested. Ole Miss has actually played 5 straight games to the under. The total for this one is running in the mid 60s and it just doesn't fit what these teams have done on the season. Vanderbilt doesn't belong in the SEC, which is part of the reason, but the Commodores have allowed 45 points or less in SEC games this season, and have allowed 40 on average. The issue for them is can they score? Vanderbilt is averaging just 10ppg in their 6 conference tilts this season, so their SEC games have averaged just 50ppg, and 4 of their last 5 have played under the total. Ole Miss has scored 31 or fewer points in 5 of their 6 SEC games which have averaged 61.7ppg, and 5 straight have played under the total. The total suggests a51-14 final score, while combined these teams average 56.1ppg in SEC games. If you look at Ole Miss and their outlier 52-51 win vs Arkansas, their SEC games average just 53.4ppg. Vandy lost to Georgia 62-0, otherwise their SEC games have seen 49.8ppg scored. What I am suggesting is it will take another outlier game to push this over the total. Moreover, Ole Miss is off a huge upset of Texas A&M, and are in a letdown spot, and on deck for them is the Egg Bowl rivalry game vs Miss St. I don't them pushing hard in this game. Make the play on the under.

This game features a pair of QB's having good seasons, as well as a pair of defenses that are suffering from a rash of injuries. The Chargers defense has allowed 31.8ppg over their last 4 and the Vikings will have up to as many as 5 key starters that may miss this game. The Chargers are ranked last in the NFL in success rate over their last 4 games. This game fits a situation that has been 87-46 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers saw their games average in the 40s last year. This team has opened up the offense and are one of the top offensive teams in the league averaging 513 yards per game. They should have no trouble reaching or topping those numbers vs Rice, who allowed 620 yards to Texas, and 52 points to UTSA. The Hilltoppers over the last 5 weeks are averaging 43+ points per contest. Rice is averaging 19.3ppg but have been shutout by Texas, and UTSA in its last 7 games, and otherwise has averaged 30ppg in their other 5. Western Kentucky is allowing 29.3ppg on the season, and there is plenty of room for a lot of scoring here. Make the play on the over.

The Rams are part of the top heavy NFC, where there is currently 5 teams beginning the week with a single loss. The Rams have taken the next step up on offense behind Matthew Stafford as they are averaging just about 30ppg. The Rams will have a huge mismatch in their favor going up against the very weak Texan's secondary. I expect the Rams to surpass their season scoring average of 30ppg in this contest. Houston is down to David Mills at QB and he has yet to win an NFL game. The Houston offense has been bogged down by 10 turnovers in its last 4 games, and 2.5 turnovers per contest is unsustainable, and I expect that number to go down, and the points to go up. The Rams defense has only been about average on the season, and they may not be on the field a lot in the 2nd half of this one, enhancing the Texan's chances of scoring. Make the play on the over in this one.

The Colorado Buffalo's are now the worst offensive team in the nation gaining just an average of 238 yards per game. Colorado has gained fewer than 200 yards a game in their 5 losses on the season. Oregon has been pretty solid on both sides of the ball, and I really doubt that Colorado is going to contribute much here in this game, and almost all the points will have to come from Oregon. Outside of big scoring games vs Stony Brook, and winless Arizona Oregon has scored 24-35 points in every game. I think this number is too high and will make the play on the under.

The Baltimore Ravens are known to like to put the ball on the ground especially with Lamar Jackson at QB. The running game should be met with little resistance, as the Chargers run stop unit is among the worst in the league. The usually reliable Baltimore defense is not up to standard, as it is allowing 6.5 yards per play and close to 400 yards a game. Justin Hebert has taken a very strong rookie season, and elevated it as he is beating last year's numbers to this point of the season. Things haven't gotten much better as they allowed over 500 yards last week to the Colts. This game should see a lot of scoring opportunities, make the play on the over.

The Vanderbilt football program has struggled over many years trying to keep up with the schools in the SEC. They have had little success in doing so and this year they may be worse than the poor teams they have put on the field in many years. This is a team that managed just 3 points against E. Tennessee St., and has been shutout twice on top of that. They have scored 80 points in 6 games on the season. Their offense is generating -2.40 yards per play fewer than what their defense allows. South Carolina is in distress as well. The Gamecocks are averaging just 17.2 points per game vs FBS teams, and the offense has been average, while the defense is 0.5 yards better than the schedule of offenses they have faced. I think South Carolina will be capped at 30 in this game and they have already held 4 teams to 17 points or fewer on the season, and Vanderbilt is below those teams offensively. I look for this game to play under the total.

Washington will once again go with QB Taylor Heinicke. Probably the best testiment to the Washington offensive line was the fact that Heinicke took 3 seconds on average to unload the ball, and did not get sacked a single time. Washington runs the ball at a top 10 rate, but the Saints own the 2nd best run stop unit in the NFL so the heart of the Washington offense is going into a very unfavorable match up. Winston is known for holding the ball too long, and will be with out 2 pieces in his offensive line, most notable starting center Erik McCoy. I like this game to play under the total.

The match up here should provide a lot more scoring opportunities than the posted total might otherwise indicate. The Atlanta offense has allowed less time for Matt Ryan to et rid of the ball, and that has led to running backs featured in the passing game, as Ryan needs to get the ball out quickly. The Falcons target running backs at the 2nd highest rate in the league and the Jets allow the 2nd most receiving yards to running backs in the league. That sets up the Atlanta offense for success in this contest. Jamison Crowder lifted the Jets offense last week in his first game. He was targeted 9 times, and has a favorable match up here vs Atlanta. This game will be played in London under very good scoring conditions. I think these match ups favor a game with more scoring than expected. Make the play over the total.

Seattle had a big halftime lead vs Tennessee last week, and let it slip away in the 2nd half in a 33-30 loss. The Titans went for over 500 yards on the Seahawks. Minnesota despite allowing a considerable amount of points has one of the top run defenses in the league, and they will be able to get pressure on Wilson. Cousin's has 6 starts vs Seattle and 5 of the games have played under, and the Minnesota defense has historically been much better at home, and this will be the home opener for the Vikings. Russell Wilson is 15-7 to the under when playing as a road favorite. I like the under in this one.

Arizona St. has put up some impressive numbers on offense in their two games this season. The problem the numbers have come vs Southern Utah and UNLV. The Sun Devils were on average 40 point favorites in the 2 games. Ironically, BYU was beating a pair of Pac-12 teams. One was Utah a team that is a huge rival, and the Cougars took them down 26-17. It ended a 9 game losing streak to their biggest rival. The Cougars have done just enough on offense to allow a strong defense to do its think holding 2 Pac-12 teams to 16 and 17 points, which is rather impressive. Arizona did combine to score 78 points in the two games, but think about it. They were a -80 point favorite in the two games and didn't even combine to score 80 points. That is a red flag to me, and I think the BYU defense will rise to the occasion again. BYU doesn't have the offense they did a year ago, and I think this is going to be a lower scoring game than indicated. Coach Sitake has always been a defensive minded coach and is now 42-24 to the over at BYU. (30-13 under on grass). Make the play on the under.

The University of Connecticut have parted ways with Randy Edsall, but the results were the same. They were shutout for the 2nd straight time vs an FBS team. The Huskies are among the worst NCAA Football teams of all-time. The Huskies will benefit however this week because Army runs the ball almost every play. That shortens the game but it also will provide cover for the worst part of the Huskie defense which is the passing game. UConn has actually been about average defending the run, and while Army puts up big rushing numbers every game, they have managed just 4.5 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that allows 4.8. They have been below average, and UConn can at least defend the run. The Huskie offense is another story. They can't score and it is likely they score very little here. Over the last 15 years in NCAA Football a team that ran the ball 60 or more times (Army 67), have played to the under in their next game 59% of the time. I think this is a good match up for the UConn defense, and I will make the play on the under.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will wheel out Ben Roethlisberger at age 39 for another go. Big Ben is 39 now and he has lost his fastball. He also is at the point where he does not have the ability to escape and shake a rush anymore and is subject to injury. What complicates things is the Pittsburgh offensive line is below average, and the running game is non-existent. The Steelers finished at 82 yards a game last year on the ground, which was dead last in the NFL. Buffalo has exceeded their season wins total 4 straight years, but have no Super Bowl appearances to show for it. Josh Allen's numbers last year compared to past seasons were among the biggest jump of any player in recent memory. It will be hard for him to duplicate those numbers this year, especially in game 1 as the one thing Pittsburgh can do is play defense. I look for this game to plaay under the total.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will wheel out Ben Roethlisberger at age 39 for another go. Big Ben is 39 now and he has lost his fastball. He also is at the point where he does not have the ability to escape and shake a rush anymore and is subject to injury. What complicates things is the Pittsburgh offensive line is below average, and the running game is non-existent. The Steelers finished at 82 yards a game last year on the ground, which was dead last in the NFL. Buffalo has exceeded their season wins total 4 straight years, but have no Super Bowl appearances to show for it. Josh Allen's numbers last year compared to past seasons were among the biggest jump of any player in recent memory. It will be hard for him to duplicate those numbers this year, especially in game 1 as the one thing Pittsburgh can do is play defense. I look for this game to plaay under the total.

Notre Dame does not have the depth it has had over the past few seasons. We saw that impact last week as the defense was dog tired and the Irish defense looked helpless in stopping the Florida St. offense in the 2nd half. Florida St. piled up the rushing yards generating 264. Transfer QB Jack Coan looked very comfortable racking up 366 passing yards and 4 TDs against the Noles as he has a lot of weapons unlike he has had before. They will be coming off a short week which certainly could leave the defense vulnerable again vs a Toledo team that is returning 21 players and should contend for the MAC Title. Last season Toledo put up 35 points per game and certainly could up that total this season. The Rockets have it all covered on offense and should pump enough points into this game limit the work the Notre Dame offense has to generate to push this one over the top. Notre Dame could not stop Florida St. and Toledo is going to get their share here against an Irish defense which is good but not not like what we have seen the past couple of seasons. Make the play on the over.

If you happened to get a glimpse of Tulsa last week, it had to make you cringe. The Golden Hurricanes had an easy game vs FCS UC Davis and they were posted as a 25 point favorite. One problem. They did not even score 25 points they finished with 17 and had trouble all game getting anything going. Tulsa QB David Brin put a lot of expectations on the QB with a 4th quarter come from behind win vs Tulane last year. That isn't what we saw in week 1. Oklahoma St. was a 38 point favorite vs FCS Missouri St. and barely pulled out a 23-16 win. QB Spencer Sanders was a late scratch and is in quarantine regarding covid-19. He is expected to miss again. The Cowboys generated just 5.2 yards per play against an FCS team and turned the ball over 3 times. Oklahoma St. faced Tulsa last season and won a very low scoring game 16-7. I don't see a whole lot of difference here in this one. Make the play on the under.

There is a lot to unpack for this game. We have two QBs that may in the end go down to the top 2 all-time. I think for the KC offense it comes down to how much will it matter that their offensive line is down both of their starting tackles? I think for Tampa Bay it will come down to how Brady handles the blitz. The Bucs allowed 27 points in the 1st meeting, which is a win against this KC offense. The points however didn't tell the story. Tyreke Hill owned the game. Kansas City was up 17-0 early and was on their way to making it 24-0 when Mahomes suffered a strip-sack inside the 15. Hill had 202 receiving yards in the first quarter. Mahomes had 462 passing yards in the game. The 27 points were an anomaly, it could just as easily have been 45. Tampa Bay will get destroyed if they depend on the blitz to get pressure. They learned that lesson early and often in game 1. They blitzed 12 times in that game, 11 in their first half. They also have to be more relaxed on the line. Tampa Bay jumped offsides 4 times in the game, which is a Mahomes specialty, as he drew 26 flags this season, tops in the league, while Tampa Bay jumped 24 times on defense ranked second-worst in the league. Trying to play man defense is suicide against Mahomes, as they ran a man defense for 8 plays, and Mahomes was 6-8 for 113 yards and 2 TDs. The problem is, Travis Kelce is a zone destroyer and a blitz destroyer. He was targeted just 8 times in that game but had 8 catches. When KC lines up with 3 receivers on one side, and Kelcey alone on the other side, Mahomes keys on White. If White blitzes, the back comes out to Kelce's side, and it is 2 on 1 with Kelce carving free space in the middle. Tampa Bay ranks 25th against opponents TEs, and this guy is the best of them all. If KC goes 12 personnel with 2 TE's Mahomes averages 9.4 yards per attempt, and the TB defense on the season allows 8.1. The TB defense ranks 26th on first down, 16th on 2nd, 6th on 3rd, and 1st on 4th. They get better by the down. TB is going to get chances to score. KC allowed 954 yards to TEs this season. Gronk and Cameron Brate were targeted often and with success in the first meeting. Gronk had his best game of the year, and Brate had 4 grabs as well. TB likes to throw downfield and had 67 passing plays of 20+ yards, while the KC pass defense allowed 54. The TB offense is peaking right now. They ranked 11th in week's 1-9 but have since ranked #2. (ahead of KC). While Mahomes is good at drawing flags at the line of scrimmage, Brady and the Buc's receivers are good at drawing flags for DPI. The Bucs got 23 of those, an all-time record. Those 23 plays supplied 395 more yards of hidden offense. KC was flagged 15 times for defensive pass interference, and additionally, their defensive backs rank #30 in broken tackles allowed. I can see where two offenses that each have a plethora of star-studded weapons can find ways to score quickly, as each defense has vulnerabilities that each opponent has the weapons to expose. My play in this game is on OVER the total.

The Cleveland Browns and the Kansas City Chiefs match two teams big on offense and small on defense. They Browns have played 6-2 to the over when the total has been 48 points or higher and the 2 games that stayed under were against top tier defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They were otherwise 6-0 to the over. All 8 of the games showed an average of 64.38 points being scored. Kansas City has played just 6 games over the total this season, but all 6 of those games were to a total of 50-58. NFL playoff games don`t often have high totals, but when there has been a playoff game with a total of 56 or higher they have gone 5-1 to the over with the average points scored at 63.33. Andy Reid is now 7-1 to the over to a total of 55.5 or more. Make the play on the over.

These teams have battled 18 times since Russell Wilson was drafted by Seattle. Outside of a 4 game stretch of shootouts, the rest of the games have been tight, physical, brawls. Those 14 games have seen the under prevail 12-2. Just twice did these teams top 40 total points between them in the 14 games.The losing team has scored 17 or fewer points in 12 of the 14 games. The loser has also scored 10 points or fewer in half of the 14 games. The wildcard round has seen the under cash at a 51-34-1 rate, with a qualifying subset that fits this game of 28-6 and 15-1. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a late season division total situation that is 117-68 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits my mega total system, and the play is on the under.

While there is some low sample size situations on the under in this game, I have a couple large sample size situations (195-105 ATS, and 148-96 ATS) on the over, and the game caps out to 53.5 points scored. I always trust large samples over small ones, and with this game capping out at 53.5, make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 178-113 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 96-57 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 536-297-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

The Washington Redskins have not had a regular season with more than 10 wins since 1991. They are just 4-7 this year, but still in contention in the NFC East. The Steelers look to make it 11 straight wins to start the season. I like the fact that a lot of these teams success has been with effective blitzing, but this match up features a pair of QBs that get rid of the ball very quickly. The Redskins pass rush is probably the strength of the team. Roethlisberger leads the NFL in fastest time to throw, and that will negate the strength of this Washington team. Pittsburgh throws the ball 40 times a contest, and that is even higher recently. Alex Smith is getting rid of the ball very quickly as well, and that will frustrate the strength of the Pittsburgh defense, the defensive line. Pittsburgh is 84-56 ATS in their last 140 games as a home favorite of 7 or fewer points. I think the match up here figures to see the ball in the air a lot which tends to slow games down from a clock standpoint. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 236-169 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 195-105 ATS and the play is on the over.

I expected the New Orleans Saints to be one of the top defenses in the league this season. The Saints got off to their annual slow start, and injuries were mounting, and the defense was not performing up to expectations. That has all changed as New Orleans has become dominant on the defensive side of the ball allowing just 225 points in their last 4 games including just 9 vs Atlanta. The Saints offense without Drew Brees under center has become run heavy as they have attempted just 62 passes in the last 3 games, while running the ball110 times. This compares to the previous 3 games with Brees as QB passing 113 times. This certainly shortens the game with the clock in motion significantly more than previously. Todd Gurley has been ruled out for Atlanta, and Julio Jones looks like a game time decision, so the Atlanta offense is not nearly at full strength. Make the play on the under.

The Minnesota Vikings have had issues on defense all season long. They held an inept Bears offense to 19 points and very little ball movement. Their other most recent 5 games has seem them allow an average of over 400 yards per contest. The Minnesota offense should have no trouble moving the ball vs a depleted Jacksonville defense, as the powerful Viking offense coupled with a horrible defense has led them to 5 games over the total in their last 6. This is also supported by a situation that is 131-88 ATS. Make the play on the over.

This game is from a mega total system that is 529-295-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game is from a mega total system that is 529-295-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game is from a mega total system that is 529-295-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

No, write ups this week

Play is on the over

No, write ups this week

Play is on the over

This game fits a total situation that is 117-54 ATS, and the play is on the over.

The Cleveland Browns have seen their last 2 games played score a combined 39 points vs Houston and Vegas. Th Browns offense also struggled against a pair of elite defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, scoring a combined 13 points in the 2 games. I see a lot of hidden value in this game regarding the total. The last 2 games the Browns have played were both in impossible conditions with rain and extremely high winds. While their is rain in the forecast in Cleveland, the winds will not be a factor. Cleveland outside of 2 games vs elite defenses, and 2 extremely poor weather games has averaged 37.4ppg in their other 5 games. The Eagles should get their share here as they have scored 17-29 points in every game. Make the play on the over.

This game is from my totals system and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 195-108 ATS, and the play is on the over

This game features a weather alert with winds sustained at 30 MPH during the game, with gusts to 45 MPH. The market has adjusted but not enough. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a 103-47 ATS situation, and the play is on the over.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens are heated rivals, and this is a huge game as the winner will certain be viewed as a high rated Super Bowl caliber team. Division games are wars, and this one has always been an intense battle. Intensity is often a synonym for defense and that is what I expect here in this one. These games virtually never meet scoring expectations, and in the last 17 meetings in Baltimore just one game has seen both teams combine for more than 46 points (48), and it has been 12 years since these teams have gotten to even 43. The Steelers are 28-2 to the under on the road to a total of fewer than 49 points in their last 30. Make the play on the under.

The Kansas City Chiefs are arguably the best team in the NFL, and Pat Mahomes has been special. The Chiefs offense is still very potent, but it hasn't been quite as explosive as it was a year ago to this point. Kansas City closed last season in top form averaging 37ppg in their final 4 games, but have yet to top the 34 point mark this season. Doing so in Denver won't be easy. The Broncos always play tough defense, and currently have the longest streak in the NFL of not allowing more than 30 points, as they have gone 32 straight games without doing so. They have more impressive numbers at home allowing 2 of their lst 59 opponents to top the 30 point mark. Broncos offense is a disaster, and the KC defense is vastly underrated because the offense gets all the ink. This is all topped off by the fact that the game time temperature for Sunday is expected to be in the teens, with snow falling through the game. make the play on the under.

This game fits my mega totals situation, and the play is on the under.

This game is part of the mega total system that I have. Make the play on the under.

This is a system play that plays under the total on a division home favorite with a total of 44 or more if they are on regular rest and their opponents last opponent scored fewer than 32 points. This is 195-115 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points

Duke has one number that is difficult to wrap around. Through 5 games they have turned the ball over 19 times. That means the offense has forfeited possession 19 times, yet they have scored 31 and 38 points in the last 2 games, and had 102 offensive snaps in their last one despite 4 turnovers. NC State has scored 137 points and allowed 137 points through 4 games, or on average close to 70ppg. I think the points will be flowing in this game, and would project this one closer to 70 than 60. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a totals system that is a ridiculous 432-211-14 ATS at 67.2% winners on 657 games. Make the play on the under. (5-1 under so far this year)

This game fits a totals system that is a ridiculous 432-211-14 ATS at 67.2% winners on 657 games. Make the play on the under. (5-1 under so far this year)

This game fits a totals system that is a ridiculous 432-211-14 ATS at 67.2% winners on 657 games. Make the play on the under. (5-1 under so far this year)

This game is part of my monster total algorithm, that has crushed totals in NCAA Football for years, and is 66% over 800+ games. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 106-47-4 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

It seems like a team playing on Monday Night just opens the playbook and let's it fly if they have a bye coming up the following week. Perhaps the defense doesn't focus as well looking forward the 2 weeks without another game. Whatever the reason or theory, when a team plays on Monday Night and has a bye the following week the over is 58-31-2 ATS. It helps if they are a good team as .600 or better teams in this situation are 31-13-2 ATS to the over. (14-2-1 ATS to the over since 2009). Make the play on the over.

The 3 military schools Army, Navy, and Air Force run the triple option almost every play. That leads to short games, and defenses that practice against it every day, and always do a good job against it when they face each other. the 3 schools are now 33-9 to the under when facing each other the last 14 years. Make the play on the under.

The Army has started at 2-0, after a disappointing 5-8 season in 2019. I don`t think the 2-0 record says they are back, as they were 3-1 last yer, before finishing 2-7. This year they have faced 2 brutal opponents, and it has made them look a lot better than they really are. The offense is going to struggle against a Cincinnati defense that allowed 20.6ppg a year ago and return 10 starters. Those 10 starters shutout Navy allowing 124 rushing yards on 52 carries. Army tends to have an edge running the triple option, but Cincinnati has defended the option vs Navy with the returning starters, and I don`t think Army is going to score much at all here. The Army defense is pretty solid and Cincinnati is not an explosive offensive team. Army will milk a lot of clock running on just about every down, and Cincinnati runs a lot as well. This game fits an extremely strong under indicator, that is 40-6-6 ATS, that plays in part on two teams off 4 TD or better wins. Make the play on the under.

If you are a Packers fan, it was good to see Aaron Rodgers have a big day. Many thought the Packers loading up on running backs, and not addressing the pass catchers Rodgers needs meant the Packers were going to turn to the running game. That certainly wasn't the case vs a depleted and weak Minnesota secondary, and likely we will see the same thing vs Detroit, who has a depleted secondary due to injuries.The Packers put up over 500 yards of offense, but also gave up 34 points themselves. Matthew Stafford completed 24-of-42 attempts for 297 yards, one touchdown, and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt.Those are strong numbers against a pretty good Bears defense. I think Stafford can put up similar numbers against Green Bay, and the fast pace offense of the Bears was too much for the Lions. There was 7 points lost in that game as D"Andre Swift dropped a wide open pass in the end-zone that would have won the game for the Lions with just a few ticks on the clock. Make the play over the total.

Notre Dame will be a member of the ACC in the strange year of covid-19. This has long been a team predicated on defense. Over the last 179 Irish games the under has prevailed 100-74-5 ATS, with just an average of 49 total points having been scored despite the average total being posted in their games having been 53.2. There is a long term bias on this team's posted totals. It may be attributable of the huge following this team has, and square bettors opting for the over the majority of the time. Once again I see that bias at work in the total here as I see 6-7 points worth of value. Notre Dame in its last 350 games has allowed 18.4ppg. that drops to 15.1ppg in game 1. Duke averaged a misleading 25ppg a year ago, but against the better defensive teams they were extremely limited, and managed just 7 vs ND. Former Clemson QB Chase Brice will be the Duke QB, but with limited practice time, and a strong defense, I'm not believing he will have a whole lot of success. This total is quite tainted in history, and as it stands now. Make the play on the under.