Sports Picks & Predictions

When Todd Reesing left Kansas everyone thought the Kansas offense would go with him. Jordan Webb has proven to be an able QB and led the Jayhawks to 28 points against a tough Georgia Tech team, and the win. New Mexico St. will provide him with a lot of opportunites as the Aggies have allowed over 40 in their first 2 games this season, to lesser teams than what they will face here, The fact is the Aggies have allowed 40+ to 6 of their last 9 opponents and I would certainly think Kansas can grab 40+ in this one at home. While the Aggie defense has not improved the offense that produced 53 points in their last 7 games a year ago, has already scored 31 in 2 games, more than doubling their output from a year ago. I like this one to go over the total.

The Houston Cougars took a blow when they lost Case Keenum for the season last week at UCLA. We saw how the immediate impact of not having him directing the offense was felt, as Houston was held to their lowest point total in over 30 games, scoring just 13 points for the game. I look for them to score some here, but this won't be the same offense without Keenum at QB. Tulane is not a scoring team and has played to a 10-1 mark to the under in their last 11 games as a road dog of 10.5 or more. This one stays under the total

Troy looked to be in trouble on offense this season when their record setting QB Levi Brown graduated. that was until freshamn Corey Robinson stepped in and has been the best freshman QB in the nation. Robinson through 3 games, has completed 79-119 passes for 66.4% and 928 yards, to go along with 6 TD's. He has done it vs some stiff competition, including Oklahoma St. on the road. This is a Troy offense that has scored 40+ in each of their last Sun Belt games, and it doesn't appear the offense has taken a step back. The defense returns 3, and no defensive lineman, so the Trojans are going to engage in a lot of shootouts. Arkansas St. put up 26 vs Auburn on the road, and it wasn't garbage time, as 23 came in the first 3 quarters, they will certainly move the ball on a suspect Troy defense. The defense has already allowed 103, so this one is marked for 70+. I'll play the over in this one.

The Toledo offense is amongst the worst in the nation. They have totalled 663 yards in 3 games so far this season, and playing against Purdue shouldn't add to those numbers. Purdue struggled vs a defenseless Ball St. teamand barely got 400 yards against Western Illinois, and struggled vs Notre Dame. It is unlikely either of these teams are strong enough offensively to push this one as high as 50 points, which is the total posted here. Toledo is also 17-4 to the under in their last 21 played on grass, while Purdue is 34-15-2 to the under in their last 51 at home. I like this one to stay under the total

Since opening the season a year ago against Mississippi Valley St. where the Arkansas St. Red Wolves scored 61, they have proven against legit competition their offense sputters. This is a team that lost their QB from a year ago, Corey Leonard, who was a good one. Leonard led them to a lot of wins, but points were not easy, as the Red Wolves got to 30 just 1 time vs lowly N. Texas. Their defense held them in a lot of games, and that unit returns 10 this year, and should be even better. UL Monroe failed to top the 21 point mark in 8 games a year ago, and most of the offense has departed including the coach. They really struggled in their opener, and it is apparent the QB situation is a problem. The offensive struggles in the past, which will follow them into this season has led to an 18-7-1 mark to the under the last 26 games. I will play under in this one.

Southern Miss is a genuine football school, and the program is rock solid. They have now had a winning season 16 straight years, and have been to a Bowl 8 straight years. Austin Davis went down with an injury last year, but he had been the starter the previous two years, and a good one completing nearly 70% last year. He has DeAndre Brown back who has caught 23 for scores in his career, including 2 this year already. Kansas has its entire offensive line back to break in a new QB, and they scored 28 vs Georgia Tech. These teams can both score despite the fact that the losses on offense seem to bring them down. Jayhawks very telling after allowing 200+ on the ground in their last game, playing over in the next game to a 16-4 mark. Southern Miss at 6-2 to the over in their last 8 on turf. This one tops the total, OVER is the play.

The Green Bay Packers can score in bunches, but it was their defense that was surprising a year ago. They finished ranked #2 in the league despite being beset with injuries. The Eagles will turn to Kevin Kolb, and Michael Vick to move the offense as Donavan McNabb's long reign in Philly is over. This is another high valued situation that has seen NFL openers with a total set from 45.5 and up to go 24-9 to the under since 1994. I will back the under here.

The Indianapolis Colts have been a high powered offense since Peyton Manning started taking snaps. Despite the high powered offense the Colts, like a lot of teams require some time to get their timing down. They have played 5 straight openers to the under, and game one's with a total set at 45.5 or higher have gone 24-9 to the under since 1994. Houston is another team that can score, but again these offenses have proven it takes time to get going, and these high opening week totals very often do not live up to their billing. I'll play on the under here.

San Jose returns a lot of the offense from a year ago, but that isn't such good news. It is an offense that has scored 69 points in their last 7 games, and that is to defenses much worse than Wisconsin, with the exception of the 3 they got last week vs Alabama. Wisconsin did give up 21 last week to a decent UNLV offense but they allowed just 4 yards a play so the 21 is very misleading. San Jose is likely going to not score more than 0-7 in this contest. That means Wisconsin is going to have to score at least in the mid-40s here if not 50+ to push this one over. The Badgers are a running team, so don't look for quick scores, but also look for a clock that keeps ticking. They have topped the 45 point mark just 3 times in the last 3 years, and one of those was vs Hawaii, which plays games like that with regularity. I like the under in this one.

The NFL season is finally here. The first game should be a great one between the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints. These clubs both displayed explosive offenses a year ago. This is game one and quite often the offenses aren't in mid-season form yet, and the oddsmakers must base their assessment off of last season, and a generally "over" wagering public. The early numbers show the public is already weighing in on the over at a 65% rate. They will likely be disappointed as NFL game 1 totals greater than 45.5 are 24-9 to the under since 1994! They will also be disappointed to learn that teams that finish in the top 3 in points scored per game the year before, are 24-12 to the under in game 1 the following year. If they averaged 28 or more points they are 13-7, and if they averaged 30+ points they are 7-4 to the under in game 1. I will go with the under in this one.

Al Golden inherited a Temple Owl program that was in shambles. The Owls had been 3-31 in the 3 preceeding years, before he took over. Last year was his 4th year, meaning he was playing with all of his own players for the first time, and he delivered a Bowl appearance. The Central Michigan CHippewas are going to learn what life is like without Dan LeFevour at QB. That isn't all the Chip's also lost Antonio Brown and Bryan Anderson, who rewrote the record book at CMU for WR's. Teams that closed the season last year with 5 or more straight wins are 30-5 to the under in conference games during the first month of the season. Not only did they lose all their weapons they lost their coach as well. I see this one being a battle for field position, and will play the under here.

Iowa St. should be a very good offensive team this year with 8 returning starters back and 4 offensive lineman. They have a quality QB in Austen Arnaud, that also runs very well, and a prolific running back in Alexander Robinson, who rushed for nearly 1,200 yards a year agoat over 5 ypc. He should be better with most of his offensive line in tact, and the return of QB Armaud who can throw and run. Northern Illinois is going to be in the thick of things in the Mid American Conference. They also have a top rated back in Chad Span who rushed for nearly 6tpc a year ago, and scored 19 TD's. Iowa St. has a great special teams unit which could score here, but I like the fact these teams have quality backs, which usually keeps the FG kicker off the field and the ball in the endzone instead. I'll play over here.

Both these offenses look like they are in the groove and will be hard to stop in this one. The Saints at home have rolled up points at the rate of the 2007 New England Patriots, as they are averaging 33.2ppg here. The Viking offense has reached the 30 point mark 11 times this season, and that includes 6 of the last 8. The ball will be in the air a lot and neither team has shown the ability to stop a high powered passing attack. There are only 7 teams in the NFL that have allowed a higher QB rating on the season than the Minnesota Vikings, so Drew Brees, at home will have a big game here. Vikings are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 as a road dog, while the Saints are 48-23-2 to the over vs teams with a winning record, with their last 5 playoff games all failing to stay under the total. I'll go with the OVER in this one.

The New York Fets held a San Diego team that had scored 20 or more points in all 17 games they played this season, to a season low 14 points. The Jets defense held 6 teams to season low points this season, and 2 others to their 2nd worst offensive output for the season. The Jets played several games without Tito Sheppard, but when he was in the lineup, the most points the Jets allowed not including overtime was 15, and they averaged allowing 9.7ppg. The Colts get a lot of ink regarding their offense, but this has not been a banner year for Peyton Manning who has thrown 16 INT's on the season. Where the Colts don't get any ink is on defense, but they have held 11 of 15 opponents (last 2 games excluded because starters sat), to 17 points or less. No game for the Jets this season has scored more than 38 total points with Sheppard and Revis in the lineup together. (Indianapolis game excluded as starters sat and Jets scored 29). This total is set way too high, and it is my NFL PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR!

The Baltimore Ravens had a pretty simple game plan for the New England Patriots. They ram the ball 75% of the time at 5ypc and went well over 200 yards. Ray Rice is quickly emerging as one of the top backs, and most versatile backs in the NFL. He was the only back in over 2 seasons to run for over 100 yards against the Steelers. The Ravens are lacking for quality recievers, so Rice has become a big option there as well catching 78 out of the backfield. The Colts are going to do one thing, they are going to throw the football. They did not have a single back gain 100 yards this season, and in fact topped the 100 yard mark just 3 times as a team all year. Both these teams are in the top 10 in the NFL in fewest points allowed per game, and did a good enough job against each other in the regular season meeting to finish with just 32 total points scored. The Ravens defense with Ray Reed is on a different level. The last 5 games they have been as good as ever allowing 210 yards a game, and just 12 points. The last 11 weeks the Ravens are allowing just 13.2ppg, and of the 11 weeks, just 2 of them have seen the total points top this mark. The last 4 years have seen the Colts 1st playoff offense produce a maximum of 24 points, and average just 20.5ppg. I like this one to stay under the total.

After watching the Arizona Cardinals defense not able to stop the Packers passing attack all game, and Curt Warner racking up a 150+ QB rating against the #2 rated defense in the NFL, the oddsmakers are forced to make this total really inflated. The fact is Arizona played one of 16 regular season games that scored more than this total. That was just one of those games, that built offensive momentum and was a total shootout. The influenece it has on this total is large. Large enough to be the highest posted total for a division round playoff game ever, and the most by a TD in the last 14 years. The Cardinals played well on the road this season, but for one reason, they played against 0 playoff teams. The Saints after averaging 36.7ppg through their first 12, finished the season averaging just 17.5ppg in their last 4. The Saints played 5 of their first 7 games that would have gone over this total, but just their overtime game vs Washington would have gone over this total in their last 9. The Saints played 6 of their last 7 under while until this crazy game vs Green Bay, the Cards have played under in 6 of their last 7 as well. Remember the Cards played against 5 of the top 10 offenses in the regular season, and not a single game got out of the 40s, and New Orleans faced 3 teams in the top 10, with just 1 going over. This is a severe over-reaction by the books, and I'll go with the under in this one as my NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR!!!

While the New Orleans Saints offense gets all the ink, it is the Packer offense that has been under the radar. The Packers have been quietly consistent, scoring 21 points or more in all but 1 game this season. Since they patched up their offensive line, and Rodgers isn't getting sacked several times a game, the Packers offense in the last 6 has averaged 33.2ppg, and almost 40ppg over the last 3. They have also showed some cracks vs top passing QB's as Minnesota scored 30 and 38 against them, and Pittsburgh 37, so I expect that Arizona will get a few points of their own here. It has been a feast or famine Packer defense, allowing 30+ on 5 occasions and 14 or less on 8. This one looks like a shootout, and I'll play it to go over the total.

The Ravens and the Pats are both in the top 11 on the defensive side of the ball. The Pats are banged up with Brady suffering from a rib injury and Wes Welker out, which means their defense is going to have to be a big part of this game. The weakest link to the Pats defense is their run stop unit allowing 4.44 yards per carry, and I'd look for the Ravens to test that early. The Ravens defense has gotten better as the season went on and held 8 of their last 10 opponents to 17 points or less at just 13.1ppg. It led to a 7-2-1 under mark in their last 10. The Pats are known for low scoring playoff games, and I think we have another one here. I'm going with the under here.

The Bowls take on a world of their own, and there are a lot of tried and true longterm moneymaking situations that apply to them. One of those situations takes place in this game, one that has better than a 10 year history of forecasting a total, and this one in particular applies to this game, and has been a acash cow for years. The result has been 81.8% winners, and it is live for this game, and the call here is on the UNDER for a strong 5 unit play.

The Bowls take on a world of their own, and there are a lot of tried and true longterm moneymaking situations that apply to them. One of those situations takes place in this game, one that has better than a 10 year history of forecasting a total, and this one in particular applies to this game, and has been a acash cow for years. The result has been 81.8% winners, and it is live for this game, and the call here is on the UNDER for a strong 5 unit play.

The weather in Cleveland is always a battle in December, and this Sunday will be no different. The early forecast has me liking the under here, as the winds are supposed to be in excess of 20 MPH, with temperatures in the teens, producing windchill values below zero. There is also a good chance it will be snowing during this game. Games played in December in Cleveland have a track record of playing fast, and low. The last 9 games played after Thanksgiving in Cleveland have seen an average of 25.8ppg scored, the lowest in the NFL! I will play this one to go under the total.

This one will be played by two top defenses in weather that is not condusive to doing much other than run the ball. That means regardless of who is on the field both defenses will have a 12th man, and that will be a wind that is howling up to 40 MPH. That means both sides will be cheating against the run, and playing 8 to 9 in the box, making running even that much more difficult. The clock is going to be winding down fast, and the kicking game will suffer as well. I'm playing this one under the total.

The Mississippi Rebels may have piled up 46ppg in a soft 4 game non-conference schedule, but they aren't a good offense. This is a good defensive team and I expect them to be able to keep the Cowboys in the 20s here tops. By the same token the Cowboy defense will not give in either, as only high powered top offenses scored against them. This one will be much lower scoring than advertised. I will go with this one to fall under the total.

The Uconn Huskies offense has been thriving of late, but the fact is the Big east does not have a big defense, and when the Huskies stepped onto their own field vs North Carolina the offense could do nothing. The Huskie defense will be facing the quickest defense they have seen all season, and also will face mismatches with their secondary, which is under-sized, and the Gamecocks feature recievers in the 6-3 to 6-5 range, and that will prove deadly in the red-zone. The Huskies have done a good job under Randy Edsall, but the road has been a struggle where they are 4-17 when matched up vs Big East teams, and facing ranked opponents just 1-15. South Carolina faced 8 Bowl teams to get here, and all 8 are from BCS Conference's. They held Florida and Alabama to 44 combined points, and I don't think Uconn can get to 20 in this one. I'm going with this one to fall short of the total, UNDER is the call.

The emotions heading into this one set the stage for this pick, as well as a huge talent differential. The Bearcats are playing like orphans here as their coach abandoned them like a redheaded stepchild, the betrayal will impct this game greatly. Florida will have their coach one last time, for all the right reasons. I look for Coach Meyer to pull out all the stops, and score as much as he can, with noone to answer to, as he has done in the past when he had accountability, and this one should fly over the total.

This isn't a vintage LSU team, but it is definately a vintage defense. The Tigers held Alabama and Florida to a combined 37 points, and I don't expect a Penn St. team that is not equipped with the offensive speed to do much against this defense. In a way this reminds me of the Nebraska game, where the quickness on defense rules the game, and I expect that to be the case here. Penn St. did not beat a single ranked team among their 10 wins this season. They got their top 2 games at home vs Iowa and Ohio St. and lost both on the scoreboard and at the line of scrimmage. The better side of the ball here for both teams are the defenses, and I look for a field position game, and will play the under here.

There is one thing holding this one down, and it is the fact that Bobby Bowden is retiring. There is also something more interesting than that, this is still a 6-6 football team playing on New Year's day? The bottomline is the emotion will only carry this team so far, there is another team playing here as well, that is much better. Florida St. has absolutely no defense for the speed of Noel Devine, or QB Jarret Brown. The Noles are also down to a backup QB for this one who has 2 TD's and 6 INT's in just 82 attempts. I'm not overlooking the imbalance of these teams, with a team that is simply not qualified for a New Year's Day Bowl appearance. I'm going with West Virginia here. I see a lot of scoring here, and will play this one over the total.

The Northwestern Wildcats come into this one with the better record, but certainly not the better team. Their running game is perhaps amongst the worst of all Bowl teams, as the top back has gained just 295 yards on the season. When you consider their schedulr outside the Big-10 included Miami,O., Towson St.,E. Michigan, and Miami,O. there isn't much left, as Towson isn't even in the FBS and the other 3 finished at 5-31 combined. They didn't have to face Big-10 winner Ohio St. this year either. Auburn saw their wildcat slowed with the speed in the SEC, but that won't be the case here, and I look for Auburn to run all over this Wildcat defense. I also expect the Wildcats to put up some points here against a suspect Tiger defense. I'll go with the over in this one.

The Missouri Tiger offense lost a lot of weapons from last year's team, but really started to come together midway through the season. The Tiger offense that was grounded through their first 6 games vs FBS teams, averaging just 21.8ppg, got it going as the season progressed. That same Tiger offense produced 36.2ppg in their last 5. It is no secret what Navy is going to do here, run the ball. The difference here, is when they get teams cheating by loading 8 or even 9 in the box, they have made them pay, averaging 10 yards per passing attempt. I woud not be surprised to see Navy get a few very long yardage passing plays in this one as they temd to get teams creeping closer and closer to the line of scrimmage, and catch them with play action for a big gainer in the air. The Tigers rank #12 in fewest rushing yards a game, but this is a completely different attack, and Navy will get its yards. I like this one to go over the total.

This is a disappointing setting for both these teams, as Nebraska was within :01 second of beating Texas, and Arizona blew a late lead vs Oregon, or could be heading to the Rose Bowl, so no advantage either way. The Cornhuskers have shown to be a difficult matchup for anyone on defense. Just ask texas or Oklahoma, who combined for 16 points against them. The probelm was their -12 turnover ratio, yet they stll didn't drop off defensively despite of it. The Arizona offense isn't designed for big plays, but more of a move the chains type offense, but sustaining drives against the Husker "D" will be no easy task. I'll play this one under the total

The Bowls take on a world of their own, and there are a lot of tried and true longterm moneymaking situations that apply to them. One of those situations takes place in this game, one that has better than a 10 year history of forecasting a total, and this one in particular applies to this game, and has been a acash cow for years. The result has been 81.8% winners, and it is live for this game, and the call here is on the UNDER for a strong 5 unit play.

These teams are both ranked in a similar state on offense at #88 and #89 out of 120 teams, and I don't expect much on the offensive side from either team. Neither team trusts their QB, and a lot of running will take place in this game. At the same time the defensive lines for both teams are amongst the best in their respective conferences. The Bruins played under in 10 of their 12 games on the season vs better teams. Neither has the deep threat, or QB to stretch the field, and I like this one to play under the total.

The Ram offense is based on one player, Stephen Jackson, and he is all banged up, but continues to play. The Cards don't do a lot of things well defensively, but they have been good against the run. The Rams have scored 13 or less in 9 of 13 games this year, and have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 28 or less points, so getting this one into the mid forties is going to be a chore. The Cards don't need this game, if they get a lead, I would expect them to sit on the ball, get a win, and move on rather than running it up, and exposing starters, for no reason. This one goes under the total.

This should be an ugly game, played in some light snow, cold, and wind, which seems to be the norm for Cleveland in December. The leagues two worst offenses, clashing in a meaningless game. While both seem to find an extra gear vs the good teams, they lay an egg vs the bad teams. This game could be over in 2 and a half hours, as both teams will want to just get it over with in bad weather, and nothing to gain with a win. I'll go with the under in this one. Raiders are 9-1 to the under as a road dog of 3 or less last 10, and Browns 8-2 under last 10 vs losing teams.

The Buffalo Bills offense has been pathetic, and other than a fluke game vs the Dolphins where they scored 31, they haven't found the end-zone very much. Their last 11 games, excluding the fluke show just 12.5ppg. The Falcon offense has been good for just 15ppg the past month, and it has led to 4 straight unders. Bills now 24-9 to the under in their last 33 as a road dog of 3.5-10. Falcons now 9-3 to the under in that same exact range as a favorite. This shows a valid history in this type of game, with under signatures from both sides, and I'll play this one to go under.

The Bowls take on a world of their own, and there are a lot of tried and true longterm moneymaking situations that apply to them. One of those situations takes place in this game, one that has better than a 10 year history of forecasting a total, and this one in particular applies to this game, and has been a acash cow for years. The result has been 81.8% winners, and it is live for this game, and the call here is on the UNDER for a strong 5 unit play.

The Bowls take on a world of their own, and there are a lot of tried and true longterm moneymaking situations that apply to them. One of those situations takes place in this game, one that has better than a 10 year history of forecasting a total, and this one in particular applies to this game, and has been a acash cow for years. The result has been 81.8% winners, and it is live for this game, and the call here is on the UNDER for a strong 5 unit play.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is not even close to what was a year ago. They allowed 27 to Oakland who had not topped 20 all season long and 27 to Kansas City, who had not topped 24 all season long, both season highs, both weak teams. Green Bay has scored 21 or more points in 12 of 13 games this season. They are averaging 28.8ppg on the road for the year. While weather is usually an issue for Pittsburgh December games, it won't be here, as it is supposed to be cold, but no wind, or snow. Packers are now 22-7 to the overfollowing an ATS win, and the Steelers are 9-1 to the over as a home favorite of 3 or less. Although Pittsburgh is usually associated with defense, they are 49-22-2 to the over in their last 73 home games. I'm going with the over here.

The Bears have gone south, and they put everything into their game last week vs the Packers. I don't see them moving the ball here at all, and the raven defense flexed its muscles last week vs a struggling team, and at 7-6, you can bet they will do it again here. I see this one as a very low scoring game, and I'm backing the under here. The Bears are now 55-26-2 to the under in their last 83 as an underdog, while the Ravens now 9-3 in their last 12 as a favorite. The UNDER gets the call here.

The Philadelphia Eagles have control of their own fate in the NFC East. They have played 8 teams with a losing record on the season, and those 8 teams have combined to produce just 119 points a game, or just under 15ppg. The Niners defense has more than held its own, as they allowed just 9 to Arizona last week3 to Jacksonville16 in their other game vs Arizona, and just 18 to the Colts. Mike Singletary always gets his team to play hard, and I like this one to go under the total.

When it gets late in the season, and you have 2 teams that have nothing to play for, a quick game is in order. The Bucs offense was immediately upgraded when Josh Freeman took over at QB. That changed rather quickly. After a couple big games, the other teams had scouting reports and film on him, and made adjustments, and the result was the Tampa Bay offense is now worse than even before. The Freeman led Buc offense has struggled to a total of 33 points the last 4 weeks, or just 8ppg. The defense that allowed 30+ in 4 of the first 7, has only allowed 30 to the Saints since, and has gotten better. Seahawks offense has sputtered to 20 or less in 9 of 13, this one stays under the total.

After many saw the Cowboys and Chargers play to a low scoring game last week, the obvious choice here would be for this one to do the same, since the Bengals defense is their calling card. The problem is the Bengal defense has not translated very well to good offensive teams. Minnesota 30 last week, Green Bay 24, and Houston 28. The Chargers are the only team in the league to go for 20+ in every single game they have played, so their offense translates well against any defense. These teams also have not produced an under in the last 7 meetings, so I'm going with the OVER in this one.

The Titans defense which was an absolute joke early in the season, has really gotten their act together. After a 5 week stretch of allowing a putrid 37ppg, the Titans have carved 20ppg off that margin and have allowed 17.8ppg since. They will be doing a lot of running behind Chris Johnson, as will the Dolphins. Dolphins offense has been slowed by key injuries, and after 4 straight weeks of 30+, they have not seen 30 since, averaging just 19.3ppg, below the NFL average. I like this one to go under the total.

This truly has to be the disappointment Bowl for Rutgers. A win vs West Virginia to close the season, would have placed them in a better Bowl situation. They will now travel to Florida for the St. Petersburg Bowl, and I don't expect the usually well travelled Rutgers contingent to travel in large numbers for this one. Central Florida will be elated to be here, as this is just their 3rd Bowl game ever, and it is just 100 miles from their campus. When it was announced that C. Florida accepted this Bowl bid, the backers immediately purchased over 10,000 tickets in the first few days, so this will for all intent and purposes be a home game, with a motivated team, vs a disappointed one in Rutgers. The CFU Knights aren't just in a good spot, they are a good team defensively, with an offense that has improved. They held texas to less points than all but Nebraska, and Oklahoma, Miami to less than all but Okla,Virginia Tech, and NC, East Carolina lessthan all but Virginia Tech, and NC, and Houston lower than all but 2 teams. needless to say this team has a big defense. They also can get a pass rush without blitzing, as 34 of their 38 sacks came from the offensive line, and the run defense is one of the best in the country. Rutgers is a much better defensive team, than offensive, and the Knights will struggle to score here as well. I like this one to go under the total.

The Bowls take on a world of their own, and there are a lot of tried and true longterm moneymaking situations that apply to them. One of those situations takes place in this game, one that has better than a 10 year history of forecasting a total, and this one in particular applies to this game, and has been a acash cow for years. The result has been 81.8% winners, and it is live for this game, and the call here is on the UNDER for a strong 5 unit play.

This game is always interesting, just because of the history, and not the competitive nature of the game itself, as Army over the last 8 years is 19-77 as a team, until they turned the corner this year, and actually will be in a Bowl game if they can win here. The 5 wins is the most this decade for an Army team, and so is their 4.22 yards a carry, and 212 rushing yards per game. For Navy they have not been as good this year running the ball, a theor 279 yards a game, and 4.79 yards a carry are the teams lowest figures in both catergories since the 1-10 team of 2002. This is also an Army defense that ranks #18 in the country, and one that allowed under 4 yards a carry, the best this decade for this Army team. The Army should be able to hold Navy down in this one, and this is also the worst Army offense of the decade scoring just 181 points all season, so I don't expect much here. I like this one to go under the total.

The weather in Cleveland tonight is supposed to be cold and very windy. The wind is expected to be 25-30 MPH at gametime, with higher gusts, which will hamper an already poor Browns offense, even further. The Steelers are in desperation mode right now, and I would expect whatever they have will be left on the field here. This is an absolute must game, with Green Bay,Baltinmore, and Miami left on the schedule, the Steelers are on life support here as far as making the playoffs go. Cleveland always plays low scoring games at home from Thanksgiving on, as the lake effect snow machine gets cranking, and the howkling wind, and biting cold produce sub-zero wind chills. The last 6 post Thanksgiving games have scored 23,16,14,8,27, and 30 points, or an average of 19.6ppg. I'll side with the under here.

There are a couple reasons this total is off in my opinion. The first being that the Ravens are known as a big defensive team, and the second is the frozen December tundra at Green Bay which is dramatically over-played. Let's address both these issues, and why this total is set to low. The Raven had a reputation for a big defense last year. That was true as they finished #2 in the NFL. That defense did not translate well on the road vs good offensive teams. Here are their 5 road games, including the playoffs vs good teams. They allowed 23 twice to Pitt on the road, 31 @ Indy,30 @ NYG, and 24 @ Dallas. That is 26.2ppg, certainly not a strong defensive team vs good teams on the road. This year they have played 3 top teams on the road. They allowed 33 @ Minn, 27 @ New England, and 26 @ San Diego. That is 3 games and they allowed 28.7ppg. So the last 2 years this top defensive team has allowed no less than 23 on the road to a good team, and has averaged allowing 27.1ppg! Now let's take a look at the frozen tundra in Green Bay. The Packers have played 4 December games the last 2 years, and the least amount of points scored has been 45, and the average 47.3ppg. Those numbers are above the NFL average considerably. The fact is 9of the last 16 have seen 45 or more points scored in Packer December home games. Now let's look at the Packer offense in Lambeau. The Packers have been the most consistent offense in the entire NFL, as they have scored 21+ in 10 of their 11 games, with a low of 17 vs Dallas. The fact is they have scored 21+ in 16 of their last 18 home games with a low of that same 17. They have scored 24+ in 14 of 18. They have also scored 30+ in 50% of those 18 games. The Ravens are 13-3-1 to the over in their last 17 as a road dog, because they can't stop good teams from scoring. The Packers are 22-5 to the over after an ATS win, and 18-7 to the over in their last 25 as a favorite. I'll go with this one to go over the total, in a huge 5 unit play.

The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has scored 21 or less points in 9 of their 11 games, averaging just 13.3ppg in the 9 contests. The Panthers have scored 20 or less in 8 of 11 games, averaging just 13.6ppg in the 8. The bottomline is these teams are both offensively challenged, with neither producing an average of even 14ppg in 17 of the 22 they have played. The Panthers have been 16-3 to the under in division play at home in their last 19. Bucs are 11-5 to the under as a road dog from 3.5-10 in their last 16. I'll make this a medium 5 unit under play.

The Bears season effectively came to an end with their loss to the Vikings. At 4-7 their playoff hopes are dashed, and a no show performance is likely here. The offense has been dead all season, aside from a 48 point deviation vs the Lions, the offense has otherwise averaged under 17 points a game in their other 10. The defense has been good against losing teams, with a mark of just over 14ppg. The St. Louis offense consists of one player, Steven Jackson, and the Rams will try to run often here against a Bears front having difficulties stopping the run. The Ram offense is amongst the worst in the league, while the defense that allowed 28+ in 5 of the first 7, has allowed 28 or less in 5 of the last 6. This one should be a grind it out affair, and I'll play this one under the total, in a small 5 unit play.

The Rutgers offense hasn't been able to move the ball much against good teams and rank 94th in the nation. Outside of a game where they were simply overmatched vs the Cincinnati offense, and a debacle at Syracuse, the Rutgers defense has stood up to the challenge. They have allowed just 107 points in their other 9 games, or just under 12 a game. W. Virginia's defense is on the rise holding Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh to an average of 20 points in their last 2, and before that, Louisville managed just 9. Rutgers has played 8 of their last 10 under, and Mountaineers have gone under in 6 of their last 8 within the conference. I'll go with the under here.

The Ohio,U. Bobcats have really come on as the season has progressed, and have played their way into the MAC Championship game against the Central Michigan Chippewas. The difference however has been facing a lot of poor to average offenses in the process. During their poor start, the Bobcats faced offenses that ranked as 4 of the 5 top offenses they would see this season, while in their final 7 played against offenses that ranked 114,111,100,89,85,79, and 43. That is an average of playing against teams that rank 89th out of 120 teams, and their defense was able to hold them off. The fact is, they played offenses that ranked from 38-51 not great offenses, but good ones in the 5 games they played against a team that was at least competent offensively. Those 5 games saw them allow 23,24,30,34, and 37 points! That is just about 30ppg. Enter CMU with Dan LeFavour with his 12,554 career passing yards, and nearly 3,000 rushing yards, and accounting for 145 TD's in his career, and it is an entirely different level for the Bobcats to deal with. CMU has played 5 home games, and has yet to score 45 or less, averaging 50.6ppg. I would be hard pressed to see Ohio, U. keeping them under 40, as offenses that were not nearly as potent, all put up big numbers vs this Bobcat defense. The Bobcats who were dreadful offensively early, have shown some life, averaging 30ppg in their last 4. I'll play this one to go over the total for a mid-sized 5 unit play.

The New York Jets are getting healthy, and they have begun to stop the run, something they couldn't do early in the season. They also have CB Lito Sheppard back to play with the NFL's bestDarelle Rivas. He will take Owen's out of the game, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to struggle here. The Jets have to limit the exposure of QB Mark Sanchez, because the Bills have 20 INT's on the season, and possess a very opportunistic secondary. I look for the Jets to pound the rocj vs a soft Bills front. While Sanchez has had most of his problems in 4 games, he has played 7 of the 11 with 1 INT or less. The Bills, and for reasons unknown, are 3-21 ATS after the Dolphins (just a footnote, not my reason here). I like the Jets in this one, as I think they can pound the ball, and with the secondary and run defense improved, I don't see the Bills scoring much here. I'll go with the under in this one for a large 5 unit play.

The Clevelkand Browns scored more last week offensively than they have in 15 weeks combined in terms of TD's, so the only thing to do with that is discard it, and look at the big picture. That's the picture that says 65% of the time over a season's worth of games, the Browns will not find the end-zone. It can also be looked at from the Cincinnati offense, that is grounded as well. Despite a 7-3 record, the offense has produced 18 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. That means the defense is getting it done, and it sure has with 4 of the last 6 Bengal opponents scoring 14 or less. I really don't see Cleveland finding the endzone in this one, and with a total hovering around 40, that spells under which is a 5 unit play.

The Houston Texans, and Indianapolis Colts inspire the thought of offense when you first see this one posted. The irony is, the total remains high despite a 20-17 game between these two clubs just a couple of weeks ago. The Texans after allowing 24+ in their first 5 games, all of a sudden have allowed 21 or less in their last 5, and at the same time an offense good for 24+ in the first 7, has scored 17 in the last 2. The Colts outside of the New England game, have not topped 20 in their other 3 in the last month of action. This one looks offensive, but the Texans are 7-0 under when the total is posted at 47.5 or higher, and I'll go under here.

*********WEATHER ALERT**********

Today: Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 52. Breezy, with a northwest wind between 18 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph

There is nothing that influences scoring like wind in a football game, and as you can see, the wind is going to be howling at the Dog Pound today. I live 30 minutes from the Rent, and I have a weather station at my house (second love), and it is now 7:30AM and the peak gust has topped off at 44 MPH already, with a steady wind of 20-25. The passing game and kicking games are going to take a hit in this one, and this becomes an automatuc weather alert 5 unit play on the UNDER! NCAAF TOTAL OF THE YEAR!!!

If it wasn't evident before Monday Night it certainly should be now. The Cleveland Browns officially have the worst offense in NFL history. They have now gone just about a complete NFL season, scoring just 4 offensive TD's in 15 games. The Browns are averaging 7.2 points a game in their last 15. So this total, although it may look low, is actually way to high, because it is asking the Lions to score 31 if the Browns get their average. There have been many of those 15 games against a defense on the level of the Lions, so I'm not allowing extra points to the Cleveland offense because it is the Lions. The Lions have not scored over 27 points in a game in 33 games, that is almost 3 seasons! Actually, the Lions offense without special teams or defensive scores, has not produced more than 24 points in a game in 28 games! So if the Lions maximum over just about 3 seasons is 24, that means the Browns have to score more than 2 TD's to put this one over, and they have scored 4 in 15 games. I'm playing this one under the total.

The New York Giants have fallen after a big 5-0 start, and their defense just hasn't been able to get it done, but signs in their last game point to that problem being rectified. The Giants have now had 2 weeks to get healthy, and focus on what they do the best. The Giants have given up 133 points in their last 4 games, but still rank #1 in the NFL in total defense. Sooner or later that will translate into stopping an opponent cold, and I think this is the week. The Falcons aren't a team that scores a lot on the road vs a good defense, and Matt Ryan has already thrown 12 INT's this season. The Falcons are likely without Michael Turner, and Jarius Norwood is also questionable with a hip injury. That weakens the Atlanta offense even further. Falcons the consumate under team as a dog from 3.5-10, where they are now 22-8-1 to the under. They are also prone to an under after a big rushing game where they topped the 150 yard mark, playing under in their following game to a 34-16-2 mark. Giants bringin the "D" after a bye, which has resulted in a 12-4 mark to the under. The last 6 between these two have seen the under prevail 5-0-1. I'll play this one under.

Army has played just one game all season that has scored a combined 50 points or more, and over the last 4 seasons the Black Knights have played 46 games with 35 of them failing to reach 50. North Texas has shown some offense but they have feasted on a schedule that sees the average defense they have played at 100 out of 120 teams in their last 6 games. They will face an Army team that ranks 13th. They will not be moving the ball against this Army team like they have against the very weak defense they have faced this season. Army is a team that hasn't scored more than 16 points in each of it's last 6 games vs FBS teams. This one goes under the total.

The UTEP Miners seem to have an allergy toward defense, or maybe it is the lack of talent on the defensive end. UTEP is allowing 40.3ppg in their last 7 while the offense is piling up 35ppg in their last 6. That is worth about 75ppg, and they will face a defenseless Rice team that has been hit for 40+ 6 times already this season, and is suddenly getting some traction on offense. Rice has played over in 49 of their last 62 games, and 37-7 to the over on turf in their last 44. They are also 22-5 to the over as a home dog. Miners are 6-1 to the over on the road, and the last 5 in this series have all gone over the total, including last year's 49-44 shootout, and the last 7 have averaged 75.6ppg. This one goes over the total.

The Toledo Rockets can score a lot of points, especially at home against a terrible defense. They have Aaron Opelt at QB who is questionable, but the offense has been able to generate the same yards per attempt with any QB they have used this season. The Rocket defense is one of the worst in the entire country, having allowed 30+ points in all but one of their games this season. The Eagles are still looking for their first win, and the offense has actually moved the ball better with Kyle McMahon at QB and they should have plenty of opportunities vs a weak Rockets secondary. This is a defense that has allowed 45+ to 4 teams this season, and noone has gone for less than 24. This one fits a system that has connected on 87.5% of all games that fit the criteria, and will be live here on the over. It has beaten the total by nearly 13 points a game, and if the total was set 7 points higher in the games played it would still yield results of 65% going over. MY NCAAF TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER IN THIS ONE

The Buffaloes have QB issues, and although Tyler Hansen has been getting most of the snaps, the offense isn't performaing any better, in fact it may be regressing. The Cowboys have a tough defense, especially at home, and the Buffs offense is more than a yard worse from scrimmage on the road, than what the defenses they have faced have allowed this season. I really can see them having trouble getting into the endzone in this one. Oklahoma St. has an average offense, and the Colorado defense has been average, so I don't see a runaway scoring game by the Cowboys in this one. With one team needed to do most of the scoring here, I like this one to go under the total.

The Miami,Ohio Redhawks aren't as bad as their 1-10 record would indicate, but when it comes to turnovers, the justification of that 1-10 record is certainly there. This is a team that has turned the ball over countless times this season, and have lost because of it. They have outgained many of their opponents, so from the line of scrimmage this team is highly competitive, and when they don't turn the ball over they get the ATS win. The Buffalo Bulls saw any Bowl hopes they had go down the drain vs Ohio,U. They haven't been much better than the Redhawks, as after a season opening win vs UTEP, the Bulls have a 4 point win vs Akron, and a win vs a non FBS team to show for their efforts. The Redhawks have played 5 of their last 6 vs a team with a losing record over the total, and Buffalo has seen 25 of their last 35 inside the conference go over, as well as 4 of the last 5 in this series. I like this one to go OVER the total.

The Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots always bring a high total, and that is based on 2 things, Manning vs Brady. The reality is these teams as a rule play much tighter lower scoring games. This year there is a different element in the equation. They both always bring top 10 offenses to this game, but this year they will bring top 10 defenses as well. The last 3 years these teams have met and the game has failed to produce more than 47 points, and that was without the defenses being as good as they are for this one. It is a Sunday Night game, and will be a layoff atmosphere and the defenses will keep this one from going over. Under gets the call.

The Arizona Cardinals always draw a rather high total, as the perception is this team is a powerhouse offensively, and a liability defensively. Well actually the Cardinal offense is living on last seasons #4 ranking, and this year they have slipped to 14th. Their defense is also allowing nearly a TD a game less over a year ago, so scoring is obviously down on both sides of the ball. After 10 times touching 30 last year, including the playoffs the Cards have managed to do so just twice this year. The Seahawks have not played well on the road in quite some time, as they are just 2-11 in their last 13, and have scored under 20 in 8 of the last 11. This one is going under the total.

The Detroit Lions have won just 1 game over the last year and a half. They have been bad on both sides of the ball, but have shown defensive improvements this season. Last year they allowed 30+ in 62.5% of their games, and they have pared that down to 37.5% this season so far. The offense has remained poor, but with no decline or improvement as they reach 20 points half the time, the same as a year ago. The problem has been their opponents intensity in division games, that matter, as the Lions have produced just 14.25ppg in their last 8 inside the NFC North. Minnesota may be at the top of the list, as the Lions have scored 16 or less in each of the last 4 meetings, and these teams have combined to score 43 or less in 7 of the last 9 meetings. Lions have played 6 straight to the under after their bye, while the Vikings are 26-12-1 to the under after an ATS win. I'll play the under here.

The Carolina Panthers are the classic under team when they play within their division at home. The last 6 years they have played 18 home games vs the 3 teams that reside in their division and 16 of the 18 have fallen short of the total. When the posted total has been set at greater than 40 they have played 6-0 to the under. These teams certainly don't display many offensive numbers to make this look uncomfortable as they both reside in the bottom 50% of the league in offense, and defensively, Carolina ranks in the top 10. Atlanta is also 38-18-1 to the under in their last 57 road games. The Panthers are 9-0 to the under vs a team with a winning road record, and 12 of the last 14 played in Carolina between these two teams has gone under the total. I'll play the under in this one.

QB Trey Revell returned from injury last week, and LA Monroe will be ready to dominate a Western Kentucky team that is 0-9, and allowing 53ppg over their last 3. The Hilltoppers have found some offense in their last 6 games, as they have gone for 20 or more in each one, but the defense is the worst in football, and the offense simply can't keep up. Warhawks offense struggled without Revell as they scored just 16.7ppg in the 3 he missed, but have piled up 33.3ppg in the 6 he has played, and those numbers are held down by the fact they played Texas, and Arizona St. I expect another 50 points served up by the Hilltopper defense, and for this one to soar over the total.

The Alabama Birmingham running attack has been rolling over everyone, and at 6.38 yards a carry ranks only behind Nevada in NCAAF this season. The problem is their defense is as bad as their offense is good, and their pass defense allows more yards per game than any team in the country. Memphis is right there with them as the Tigers defense is allowing 33.2ppg and also 4.78 yards per carry on the ground. The Memphis offense has shown it can score against bad defenses, and I expect this one to be a shootout, and will play it over the total.

The Tennessee Vols have been in every game they have played this season under new coach Lane Kiffin. The have 4 losses by a combined 20 points, and those include games vs Alabama, and Florida, both on the road, and I have no doubt they can hang with this Rebel team, that isn't as good as last year's team that took everyone by surprise. Jevan Sneed has struggled, and already thrown 13 INT's on the season. The best and most consistent part of both these teams is the defense. Tennessee has allowed their last 3 SEC opponents, Georgia,Alabama, and South Carolina just 44 points, or under 15 a game, while Ole Miss has held 7 of 9 opponents to 17 or less. This one figures to be tight and low, and getting 6 points with a team that has the ability to win here, and has been in every game is the way to go. Under gets the call here

The Temple Owls are 7-1 vs FBS teams, with the lone loss coming to Penn St. They have won 7 in a row. What is more amazing about it, is they have been outgained in those 7 games by 71 total yards! So here is a team that is winning every game, but in all the games combined, they have been outgained. They have even had a +10 turnover margin, which means 10 extra possessions, to 10 less possessions for the opponent, or a combined total of 20 extra possessions or just about 3 a game! Needless to say the offense is brutal, and averages -0.7 yards per play worse than their opponents have allowed on the season. Akron has allowed big points to big teams, but outside the scoring machine of Central Michigan has not allowed more than 28 to anyone, and their defense rates above average. Both defenses are above average, and both offenses are below average so I expect a low scoring game here, and I'll go with the under.

This is obviously a big game for both teams as Cincinnati is trying to stay unbeaten, and see if they can make a move toward a Championship Game if someone stumbles, and West Virginia with just 1 conference loss can draw even with the Bearcats with a win. The one thing that stands out to me in this game, is neither defense has been able to stop a good offense. The numbers look good defensively for both teams, but when you look where the numbers came from it opens eyes. W. Virginia played Liberty, who isn't even a FBS team, and 5 other teams ranked 74th or lower on offense. The only 3 games they played vs a legitimate offense was Uconn #36, S, Florida #58, and Auburn #11. Those teams averaged 31.7ppg against W. Virginia, and also 441 yards a game. What is even more glaring is the Mountaineers were defenseless against the pass, where they allowed over 9 yards an attempt on average in the 3 games. Well guess what? Cincinnati is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt and will be up and down the field really fast in this one. Cincinnati is similar, as they played a non FBS team, as well as 4 others ranked 74th or worse offensively. Their 3 games against at least a decent offense showed 416 yards per game, 27.7ppg, so the Mountaianeers will move the ball on them as well. I see this one more in the 60+ range, and I'm playing this one over the total.

When I started looking at this game, it would appear that the Ohio, U. Bobcats were getting their defense together, but a closer look reveals something. The last 4 games they have allowed their 4 lowest point totals of the season, with a total of 51 points scored against them. Looking at the 4 games, the top offense was ranked #86 out of 120 teams. Their opening 4 games were vs teams all ranked offensively from 36-48 in the country, so Buffalo at #35 will be the highest ranked offense they have faced all season. While against the 5 cupcake offense they have played averaged just 286.8 yards per game, and 12.2ppg, the other 4, all below, but around what Buffalo's offense is capeable of, they allowed 390 yards a game, and 31ppg!!!! The Buffalo defense has been just average this season, so not looking for them to shutdown the Bobcats here either. This one set to low, going with the OVER here.

You really have to question a Detroit Lion offense that was shutout at Green Bay, and followed that up with just 10 points against a horrible St. Louis defense. The Seahawks defense can't hold down a good offense, but they have already pitched 2 shutouts against weak offensive teams in Jacksonville, and St. Louis, and I don't see the Lions moving the ball much here. The Lions defense isn't that good, but against a poor Seattle offense they should be able to hold their own, as the Seahawks have scored less than 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games, this after scoring 21 or less in 12 of their 16 games last year. Lions have played 7 of their last 10 to the under vs a team with a losing home record, and the Seahawks have played under in 4 of their last 5 at home. I like this one to stay under the total.

The Houston Texans could not stop the run, and that looked to be their demise, and another disappointing .500 record, and no playoff appearance. Suddenly noone is running on the Texans, as in 3 consecutive weeks they have held a trio of pretty good backs, Bensen,Lynch, and Gore to a combined 119 yards, less than 40 a game. The improvements on the defensive side of the ball, have led to 4 of the Texans last 5 games, playing under the total. Last week the Niners, on the road, held the Colts to 0 TD's for 3 quarters, and just 1 for the game. What has been lost in the Colts 7-0 start, is the defense, which has allowed 17 points or less in 6 of them, and 12 points or less in 4 of them. The Texans offense has never translated the same way on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 to the under. While the last 8 in this series have all gone over, pushing this total up, the faces of these teams is changing, and I'm going with the under here.

The Washington Redskins have been a big disappointment, and the offense has not produced a game scoring more than 17 points all season. That is dispite playing 5 games against teams, that were winless at the time they met them, not even counting the 0-0 Giants in game 1 of the season. The Redskins have faced 4 of the worst defenses in points allowed in Kansas City,St. Louis,Tampa Bay, and Detroit. All 4 of those teams allow 26ppg or more, and average allowing 28ppg. The Redskins have scored a total of 45 points or 11.25ppg in those 4 games. That is 17ppg less than an average team would score. Despite of the offensive inefficiencies, the Skins defense, which is on the field way too much, and with poor field position, they are allowing just 17.6ppg. No team has scored more than 27 against them. The Falcons have played 3 unders at home because their defense is much better in Atlanta. They have allowed less than 14 a game at home. Washington has now gone 21-6-1 in their last 28 as a dog of 3.5-10 to the under. The Falcons in the same type of game, only as the favorite of 3.5-10 have played 9-2 to the under in their last 11 in that same role. Combined these teams in this roll, where the line is between 3.5-10 one as a dog, the other as the favorite, have produced a 30-8-1 mark to the under. UNDER gets the call in this one.

If you look at this Navy team, they run the ball over 90% of the time. That means the defense doesn't get a lot of practice time vs a team that spreads the field, and puts the ball in the air a lot, and they tend to struggle against high efficiency passing games. Their worst defensive performance of the season came this season against SMU, when they allowed 35 points. What will the high powered passing attack of the Irish do to this defense? Notre Dame QB Jimmy Claussen is having a Hiesman Trophy type year, as he is throwing for 9 yards an attempt, totalling 2,318 yards, 18 TD passes and just 2 INT's. The Irish have topped the 30 point mark 5 times despite a tough schedule, and they should be well into the 30s here if not topping 40. Navy does one thing, they run the ball, and should be able to score on an at best average Irish defense. Navy has scored 20+ against the Irish in 5 of the last 7 seasons, and have averaged 22.2ppg, and against the current senior class of the Irish, the last 3, they have scored 26.3ppg. This one should get enough scoring from both sides to easily push this one over the total, and I'll go 3 units on the over here.

East Carolina has been a giant killer at home, as they have 6 wins vs the BCS Conference teams since 2003, and as a home dog of 10.5+ they have shown a lot of bite at 4-0, and are also 10-3 ATS as a home dog in their last 13 overall. The key to this one is going to be what has created a 2 game losing streak for Virginia Tech, and that is converting on 3rd down. The Hokies are ranked in the bottom half of all FBS teams in converting 3rd down attempts at under 40% for the season, but recently, in their 2 losses that number has slipped to 35%. East Carolina has held their last 3 opponents to a conversion rate on 3rd down to just 33%, and when the the 3rd down situation is greater than 2 yards the Pirates have responded with a fantastic 28% conversion rate by opponents. The morale has to be down for the Hokies, as they went from ranked #4 in the country, and a BCS Bowl likely candidate, to no hope, and with this being a non-conference game, that now means very little to them, it is a huge game under the TV spotlight for the Pirates, and they have proven to come up big in this spot. The Hokies will also be playing their 11th Thursday game under the TV spotlight, and that has been a huge winner for the under as the Hokies have gone 11-0 to the under and the games have averaged scoring in the low 30s. UNDER gets the call.

This game has a lot of value on the over and let's take a look at similar games played over the last 17 years. Eastern Michigan comes into this game at 0-8, and when an 0-8 team is on the road as a +20 or more favorite, they are 10-4 ATS but at the same time their games have averaged 51.1ppg in combined points. Northern Illinois comes in at 5-3, and teams that are 5-3 are in a game that is ready to qualify them for Bowl eligibility, and when they play as a home favorite of -20 or more they have averaged scoring 47.3ppg since 1983 in 20 contests! The average points scored has been an astounding 60.82ppg. Combining the 34 games, between similar occurances over the last 17 years and we have games that have averaged 57ppg. That is more than a TD and conversion over the posted total here, and I'll ride the value and play this one over the total.

The Bowling Green Falcons are one of the top passing offenses in the country, as they have a QB in Tyler Sheehan who will be making his 34th consecutive start. Sheehan has thrown for 8,743 yards, and 58 TD's, and the Falcon passing attack is averaging a nation's 4th best 341 yards per game, which has increased to 401 yards a game in October. The problem for the Falcons is they have no complimentary running game, as noone with more than 1 carry is averaging even 4 yards an attempt. The average is 2.41 and just 65 yards a game. It has led to 23 sacks, and numerous stalled drives, as it makes it difficult to score in the red-zone when the field gets short. The passing yards would indicate a teams scoring big, but the Falcons have played half their schedule scoring 20 or less, and the Bulls have a top 45 pass defernse, so they can at least slow the Falcons. Bowling Green simply can't stop the run, allowing nearly 6 yards an attempt, so the Bulls will be doing a lot of running, one to keep the Falcon offense off the field, but 2 it is the best way to attack the Falcon defense. Here is something very revealing about this game. There are 42 teams in NCAAF that average over 400 yards of offense a game, and both these teams are on that list of 42 teams. The 42 teams average 32.3ppg. There are only 3 teams of the 42 taht average under 27ppg, and both of them are in this game! Bowling Green at 23.6ppg, and Buffalo at 23.1ppg. Bowling Green has played 7 straight to the under as a road dog, and 9-1 overall in their last 10 as a dog. Bulls are at 4 straight to the under at home vs a road team with a losing record. I like this one to go under the total.

What has to be the anti-Superbowl, the St. Louis Cardinals, winless in 17 straight games, face the 1 win Lions, who broke a 19 game winless streak of their own. The Lions offense, and team is riddled with injuries, and as it is they have topped the 20 point mark just 1 time this season, without the aid of a defensive score. The Rams only visit to the plus side of 20 has been a 27 point output in week 17 last year, when the Falcons used all subs for most of the game. This one doesn't figure to be very offensive either as both QB's have poor passer ratings, and the offenses are amongst the wrost in the league. The Lions have produced 5 straight unders after their bye week, as well as a 67-32 under situation, that becomes active in this game. UNDER gets the call for 4 units.

The Seattle Seahawks have gottn 2 shutouts from their defense this year when they have been healthy and rank 12th in the NFL, but I think they are much better than that. They had problems against San Francisco when they were missing DT Brandon Mebane, and had problems in the 2 games without CB Josh Wilson, but when they have been defensively in tact, they have performed as a top 5 defense. The Cowboys certainly can move the chains, but Seattle has the defense to keep this one withing single digits. The last 2+ years Dallas has had a lot of problems beating a double digit line, as they are just 3-7 ATS. The Seahawks are now 21-10-1 ATS after suffering a loss by 2 TD's or more. I think Seattle will hold this Dallas offense enough to allow this one to go by the way of 5 of the last 6 in this series, under, and Dallas, vs a team with a losing record has been 47-22-3 to the under, as well as 16-6-2 under at home vs losing teams. UNDER for 4 units.

The North Carolina Tar Heels bring a big defense to this game, but the problem has been moving the ball on offense, and going into Blacksburg on a week night against a rugged defense, I can make a case that the Heels will not find the end-zone. The Hokies gave up points in 2 games, the opener against a top rated Alabama team, and against the triple-option attack of Georgia Tech. I discount the Duke game as a sandwich game between Miami,Fla and Boston College. The Hokies have played the best defense at Lane Stadium over the last 21 played here than any home team in the country. The last 21 games played here the most an opponent has scored has been 21, and 18 have scored 14 or less. Teams that bring no offense to the table often don't make it to 10, as half the opponents failed to reach the 10 point mark vs the Hokies on their turf. Under the lights on a week night will make them that much more focused. The Heels can bring some defense themselves, as despite their offensive woes, and forced on the field for long periods, they rank 8th in the country allowing 266 yards a game. I can see North Carolina getting shutout here, as the Hokies allow under 10 points a game here in their last 21, and allowing for a sub-par, less than average offense to reach that 10 total, then that means the Hokies have to score 34 against the 8th ranked defense in the country, and I like the chances of this one going under the total.

This battle between East Carolina and Memphis is between two teams that are below average offensively. The Pirates are running the ball for just 3.7ypc vs teams that allow 4.1ypc, and pass for 6.1ypp, vs teams that allow 6.5ypp. Memphis is gaining just 5.2 yards per play vs teams allowing 5.6 yards per play. East Carolina scored 49 vs a Rice defense that ranks #116 out of 120 teams, and produced 29 against Appalachian St. , a school not even in the FBS. The remainder of the Pirates 5 games which most favorably compare to what they will face here, shows the Pirate offense has topped off at 21 points. memphis has had 2 big scoring games, one vs UTEP, ranked #117 out of 120 teams where they scored 35, catching UTEP off a huge emotional win over Houston, and the other vs non-FBS Tennessee Martin where they scored 41. The body of games most comparable to what they face here has seen Memphis top off at 16 points. When you take 2 teams that have prodcued their best offensive games, under similar competition at 21 and 16, and you have a total set in the high 40s, the only value to be found is on the under. Back that up with the fact that ECU has played under in 9 of their last 11 conference games, which include 5-0 on the road vs a losing team. Memphis has played 5-0-1 under in their last 6 after a good pass defense showing allowing less than 170 yars in their last game. This one stays under the total.

The New York Giants were completely humiliated by the New Orleans Saints. Dree Brrees picked apart the Giant secondary, and the Giants weren't able to pressure Brees, which was a big mistake. I expect them to learn from that game, and really put the heat on Curt Warner, who is basically a QB with a ball and chain around his leg, and unable to move from the pocket. Warner takes a lot of sacks, and since he has had problems with his thumb, throws a lot of interceptions, and I think the Giants come out breathing fire this week. The last 8 times the Giants gave up 29 points or more they have come back to allow their next opponent to score an average of just 11.8ppg! All 8 games played to the under! Arizona is an average offensive team this year ranked 16th in yards per game. Their defense is also very average ranking number 16. The most points scored in a Giants game after they allowed 29 points or more has been 46, and the average has been 35, and as I had mentioned before every single one of them went under the total, and I'm going under the total for this one.

The Cleveland Browns continue to struggle offensively. They scored 14 points last week, but 7 of those came when Josh cribbs returned a kick for 7. The Browns have now scored a paltry 4 offensive TD's in their last 12 games, by far the worst performing offense in NFL history.Cleveland QB's have been sacked 16 times, and they convert just 27.9% of third down situations, and average just 8.5ppg over their last 12. Their 2-headed QB's have a combined 49.32 passer rating, have yet to have a running back score a TD. The bottomline here is the Browns simply can't score, and the Packer defense, off a shutout will be brimming with confidence here. Speaking of Green Bay they fit an under system that has gone 54-25 68.4% to the UNDER that keys on teams allowing less than 10 points in their last game (obviously there is more to the system than just that). The Packers offensive line has allowed 25 sacks already, the most in the league, and Aaron Rodgers is a good QB, but he factors into it as well, as he simply holds the ball too long. The Browns struggles offensively has shown them playing under when the total is 41 or higher in 13 of their last 15 games. The Browns have also played under in 18 of their last 27 games. I like this one to go under the total.

The St. Louis Rams are doing the best they can to be the worst football team in the NFL. The Lions went the entire season without a win last year, on their way to 19 losses in a row. The Rams are closing in, as they have now lost 16 straight themselves. The offense has scored just 47 pints this season, or under 8 a game, and a total in the mid 40s requires 2 teams to score. The last 22 Rams game tell the story. The Rams offense has generated a grand total of 7 TD's from inside the 15 yard line. That is 0.3 per game! All the other scores have come from deep, where there was a blown coverage or fortunate big play, and even those don't come often. The average distance of those scores has been 37.1 yards! So this team doesn't have offensive problems, they have offensive nightmares. The Colts have a defense this year that ranks #7 in the league, and I doubt there will be much room for the Cards to operate here, and if this becomes the expected lopsided game, then the Colts aren't going to be putting up 35-40. What might surprise you is this Colts team, known for offense, has not topped the 35 point mark offensively in 24 games, and in fact when they have faced a double-digit pointspread, they average only 25.8ppg! They have played under in 9 of their last 12 after allowing 250 yards or less in their last game. I like this one to go under the total.

The UL Monroe Warhawks suffered a bad break, when they lost their QB last week to a thumb injury. Redshirt Freshman Cody Wells takes over, and the yards per pass dipped from Trey Revell's 8.0, down to 5.8. The Warhawks run a lot of option type offense, with the QB in charge of making a read, and now they have an inexperienced QB running an offense, that takes time to master. I expect the Warhawks to try and reduce the playbook, and play safer with the redshirt freshman at QB for the first time. Kentucky is off a huge win vs Auburn on the road, where they limited them to just over 300 yards, so the defense is coming up big. Kentucky also had 2 players go over 100 yards rushing, and have had trouble throwing the ball. I would expect the ground game to dominant on both sides in this one. The Wildcats bring the second longest non-conference winning streak in the country to this game, at 16, so they won't be a no-show here, and it is also Hall of Fame weekend. UL Monroe is a quick defensive team, and in his press conference Coach Rich Brooks expressed concerns about the UL Monro defense, that runs things his team has not seen this season. They play a 3 man front, with a lot of twisting, and stunting, with quick athletic linemen, and they are allowing under 100 yards a game, which has him concerned, for the offense. Both these teams like to run the ball, and both are just under 200 yards a game. Kentucky doesn't even have 1,000 yards passing on the season, while ULM will be using a redshirt freshmen in his first ever start. This one figures to be played on the ground, and I like this one to go under the total.

The Arkansas St. Red Wolves have played a very tough schedule, and it leaves a very talented offense under the radar as they have played Iowa and Nebraska, as well as both teams from the top of the conference in Troy, and UL Monroe. They now get a shot at home vs the worst defense in the country, Florida International. FIU is allowing 500 yards a game, and 36ppg. FIU could not score against the likes of Rutgers or Alabama, which skews their real numbers down, as overall against competition on their level, they have scored over 30 a game in each of the 4. This one doesn't look as offensive, as the team stats do, until you take a peak inside the numbers, and this one should be a shootout, with both teams putting up enough here to send this one over the total. I'll play this one to go over the total.

Looking at the numbers this Alabama team has put up in the SEC defensively are amazing. They have held 14 of their last 21 SEC opponents to 14 points or less, and just about half of them to 10 or less! They have out-scored their SEC foes by an average of 18ppg. The defense itself has allowed just 11.3ppg if you remove special teams, and turnovers for TD's. The same 21 opponents have run the ball for less than 65 yards 14 times as well. Tennessee comes in with some lofty offensive numbers piled up against some poor defenses, but when they played Florida, and UCLA (the best defenses they have seen this year), they have failed to produce much of anything. They combined for 28 points and just over 400 yards in those 2 games. They will get less here. Crompton 0 TD's and 5 INT's under 100 yards in both games. McElroy has had problems himself against some of the better defenses of late, and that is one thing Tennessee can do is play defense. These games are usually wars with 7 of the last 10 going under the total, and the defenses in this case are both ahead of the offenses. I'm going with the under here.

The Florida Seminoles are far removed from their glory days, where they were winning at least 10 games every season. Coach Bowden is feeling the heat, and just 2-4 on the season, and 0-3 in the ACC, is enough to realize this is not the same ilk Florida St. team. They are maligned for being a team that plays no defense, as they are allowing 28.2ppg, but I don't think the defense is as bad as the numbers look. There are 50 teams in NCAAF that score 29+ a game, and it just so happens that all 5 of the FBS teams Florida St. has played are on that list! Those teams combine to average 32.92ppg, so reshaping reality, as it collides with perception, reveals the Seminoles have actually been slightly better than average defensively in terms of points allowed, vs the teams they have played. North Carolina will come in here with the #3 ranked defense in the country. I don't think they are the 3rd best defense in the country, but they are very good regardless. They are quick to the ball, and there is no droppoff in the 2-deep on the defensive line, and they have 3 linebackers that run the 40 in 4.55. Florida St. can move the football in the air, but their biggest obstacle has been themselves, as they have already fumbled the ball, an alarming 17 times, losing 11 of them. This time, as was the case vs S. Florida, they will have a top notched defense to contend with as well. North Carolina may have a big defense, but they have 0 offense, and I mean 0. Their 3 games vs BCS teams has resulted in 22 points. They have gained just 91 rushing yards on 91 carries, and passed for just 505. Considering they have also been -6 in turnovers in the 3 games, that just makes the defense look that much better. This is a game of two turnover prone offenses, that often see drives stopped by themselves, one will be facing a great defense, the other a better defense than it looks. I have another angle in this game, on top of the game situation, and it is one of my strongest NCAAF angles of all. It is an under system that has remarkable accuracy. It is 39-7-3 to the under, or wins 84.8% of the time!!!...and it is active for this game. I will go with the under in this one.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have led the nation in total yards on offense the last 2 seasons. This team is breaking in a new QB, and doesn't have the same weapons as they did over the last 2 seasons, and the second change is they are much better defensively than they have been in recent times. UTEP has a poor defense, but the reality is the Tulsa offense in terms of yards per play has matched the defenses yards allowed on the season, so they are an average offensive team, not a good or potent offensive team as many may think. UTEP's defense should respond tonight as 8 members are returning from Tulsa running it up, and hanging a 77 on the Miners. Intensified defense by UTEP, and a much more ordinary offense by Tulsa, and I look for this game to be much lower scoring than most realize. Tulsa has yet to play an over this season, as the oddsmakers take advantage of the public perception this team has created. Under gets the call here.

Looking at a team in the Broncos that has played 5 games, and has yet to allow anyone to score more than 20, and on the season allowing just 8.6ppg, one would expect the total to be in the 30s. There is a method to Mr. oddsmakers madness, he realizes a few things here. This will be the first time on the road for the Broncos vs a competent offense, as the Chargers are the 8th ranked team in points scored per game, and in my opinion, haven't even gotten started yet. This is a team scoring 25+ with Tomlinson and Sproles generating less than 3 yards a carry, and Phil Rivers way behind last years pace in TD's and yards. It also should be noted that the Broncos rank 8th in yards a game, but are just 19th in points scored, so the offense is performing much better than indicated, and I expect their points to spike, as well as their points allowed to spike. Teams that are road dogs off of 5 straight unders are 18-5 to the OVER in their next game. The Chargers in their last 13 at home as a favorite of 3.5-10 points vs an AFC opponent, have averaging scoring 34.5ppg! They have never scored under 20, and have scored 30+ in 9 of them. This series has seen 5 of the last 6 go over the total, and I like tonight's game to go over as well.

The biggest game of the season thus far will take place in New Orleans as the unbeaten Giants clash with the unbeaten Saints. These are two potent offenses that rank 2 & 3 in the NFL both balanced and both producing over 400 yards a game, and both averaging over 30 points a game. It is also a game that features the top 2 QB's in the NFC, and games like this usually carry a much higher rice than the 47 posted here. The Saints bring a 45-21-1 OVER mark into this game in their last 67 vs a team with a winning record, and 10-2-1 in their last 13 as a home favorite. The Giants have had a patsy schedule, and the only offense they have played against hung a 31 on them. I look for this one to soar over the total.52

The Tampa Bay Bucs are off to a horrid 0-5 start, and will face another struggling team in the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have failed to score over 20 points in any game this season, after doing so in 12 of their 16 games a year ago, so this is a much different team. The good news is the defense has gotten better each week allowing less points through all 4 weeks. The Bucs offense has managed a grand total of 27 points over the last 3 weeks and has been stopped cold all season. The Panthers have now played to the under in 14 of their last 20 after gaining less than 250 yards in their last game. This game looks like a battle of field position and FG's as neither has the offense to take advantage of the other's weaknesses. I'm playing this to go under the total.

The Mississippi St. Bull Dogs will meet the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders in a non conference battle. The Bull Dogs come in at 2-4, but have played a very difficult schedule, but the last time out held a high octane Houston offense to 31 points, and held Vandy to only a FG. The Bulldogs come into this one ranked just 73rd on defense, but when you consider they have played Houston the #1 ranked offense, Auburn the #5 ranked offense, and Georgia Tech the #24 ranked offense, they certainly have shown themselves very well. The Blue Raiders found themselves scoring in the 30s in 3 of their games, but to defenses with an average rank of 92. They won't be scoring 30 in this one. This is a classic case of deceptive numbers as the Bulldogs have played such potent offense, yet in the process have a higher defensive rank than an average team would have vs that caliber of offense, so the 73rd ranking is way off. They did not score a TD vs Clemson or Troy from inside the redzone, 2 long passes, and a fumble return, for a grand total of 21 points. I like this one to go under the total.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have played about the weakest schedule in the country, with 2 games vs teams not even in the FBS, and other out of conference games against Florida International and Maryland. Despite the easy schedule the Rutgers offense ranks in the middle of the NCAA offensive rankings, and they will struggle tonight vs a Pittsburgh defense that has already recorded 21 sacks on the season. The Knights don't have much of a running game, but I do expect their defense to play better than they did against Cincinnati. This game looks to be pretty lopsided, and I expect it to be much lower scoring than the total posted here, and I'm going with the under here.

The Ball St. Cardinals aren't even a shadow of the team that threatened to join the BCS party a year ago. The Cardinal offense is going nowhere, and ranks #115 out of 120 teams. Temple is an improving team, and won 4 MAC games in each of the last 2 years, and is off to a 2-0 start. Their offense is ranked just 84th, so we have 2 sluggish offenses here, while the Temple defense is ranked #53, and is considerably better than that if you take out the Penn St. game. They held E. Michigan, and Buffalo to a combined 25 points, and the rushing numbers were 59-149, while they also held them to a combined less than 6 yards per pass play. Ball St. will not threaten those numbers, their offense is very poor, and they have been sacked 15 times already. The Ball St. defense is not good, but their numbers are skewed by the fact they allowed 91 points to Toledo and Auburn, which both rank in the top 10 offensively. Their pther games they allowed22ppg. vs teams that would average similar to Temple offensively. I expect that Temple will get in the 20s here, but I clearly don't see Ball St. scoring much here, likely 17 tops, and I'm playing this one to go under the total

The Nebraska Cornhuskers will take on the Missouri Tigers in an important Big-12 matchup, as Missouri comes in 4-0 and Nebraska 1-3. It looked like Missouri was going to be better than expected with all the key offensive departures, when they opened vs Illinois, and put up 37 points. The problem is, Illinois has been a disappointment, and have a defense ranked #105 out of 120 teams. Missouri has scored 36.8ppg, but that includes 52 vs a non BCS team in Furman, and 3 BCS teams that are ranked 91,105, and 107 out of the 120 teams or average in the 84th percentile of all teams. It is very unlikely they will have that kind of success vs a Nebraska defense that is ranked #21. What shows up here is Derrick Washington averaged 5.9ypc a year ago, and scored 17 TD's, and also caught 29 passes for 277 yards at 9.6 per catch. This year, he has been limited to 301 yards on 68 carries for 4.4ypc, a yard and a half less than a year ago, and just 5 catches for a net of 22 yards, way down, because he doesn't have the same weapons on offense, and he isn't the same player. Nebraska has shored up their defense from a year ago, and the strength is the secondary, where all return, and even the two-deep has experience. It will make things much more difficult for Blaine Gabbert as he has not seen a semblence of a decent defense yet. Nebraska is going to run the ball a lot here, becase they can dominate the line of scrimmage. They went into Blacksburg, vs a tough Hokie team and ran the ball for 207 yards. Despite the offensive explosiveness these teams have displayed in the past, Missouri has now played 6 straight unders at home vs a team with a winning record, and 7 of 8 after an ATS win. Nebraska has played 8 of their last 10 on grass to the under as well. Despite the fact that over 60% of the public is on the over, this one has dropped from the opening total of 54.5 down to 52.5/53 as of this posting. Week night games in NCAAF have featured 26 games with a home underdog and the under has been 18-7-1 or converting 72% of the time! I like this one to go under the total.

This could be one of the ugliest games of the week. The Tampa Bucs were held to under 100 yards last week. Iwent back and looked at teams that produced such futility, and what happens to them in their next game. There have been 20 teams since 1990 that have gained less than 100 yards, and the next week, 4 of the 20 were shutout, and half of them did not get into the endzone the following week. I think Jim Zorn will help keep this game under the total. His best offensive weapon is Clinton Portis, but 12 of the first 16 plays vs the lowly Lions were passes. This is a Washington team that went up and down the field on the Rams, but could not get into the endzone. I'm not sure which is worse, getting shutout and not gaining 100 yards, or losing to a team that had previously lost 19 in a row. Washington scored a combined 23 points vs St. Louis and Detroit, this is off the heels of scoring 64 points in their last 6 home games last year, and they gave up just 93 in those same 6 games. That is just a total of 26ppg. First one to score wins. I'm going with the under in this one.