Sports Picks & Predictions

The Arkansas Red Wolves have a long history of being a very strong team at home, but a very weak one on the road. When it comes to playing outside the conference the numbers only get worse. Arkansas St. is 40-24 SU at home outside the conference, and over the same period of time they are 7-103-5 SU on the road. The average score of the games at home have been 31.7 to 21.6 on the road just 13.7 to 35.7. This has led to an abundance of games failing to get to the total, as the under is cashing just 27.2% of all games. One huge change in the Red Wolves offense is the loss of WR Omar Bayless and his 17 TDs and 1,653 yards. He averaged nearly 12 yards per target, and that simply will not be replaced. The Memphis defense should be better this year with 8 returning starters and the entire secondary. A high total like this in game 1 and the situation here tends to look inflated. Make the play on the under.

DEEBO SAMUEL  MVP     +2500   (1/2 of 1 UNIT)
>>
>> I always shy away from the QB's in this game, as it is the logical choice and the value is usually not there. that typically means I am on a long shot. i don't just like to choose a long shot on a whim, but on value so I will make the case for Deebo Samuel of the 49ers here. First, the 49ers have barely passed the ball at all in the post-season so the value is enriched as Samuel will not be on most bettors radar. He is on mine. The Niners were not sure what they had in Samuel early in the season, and his use was limited. Through 9 weeks he had 22 receptions for just 227 yards, or just over 10 yards a catch. he had just 1 catch for 30+ yards, and scored 1 TD. He also had 5 rushing attempts for 37 yards. Then starting in week 10 the Niners started to realize he had something to add to their attack. from week 10 on he caught 35 passes for 575 yards, or 16.5 yds. per catch, a quantum leap. he had 4 catches for 30+ yards and added 3 TDs. Since week 13 the 49ers wanted him to get more touches and he ran the ball 9 times for 122 yards. he had 4 runs of 20+ yards, and 2 TDs. despite the 49ers pretty much running their way to the Super Bowl he caught more balls, for more yards than any other receiver. he also ran the ball 3 times for 49 yards. When I make an MVP choice, I like players that can impact a game multiple ways (running and receiving in this case). I think the 49ers have so much to look out for that Samuel could become an under the radar part of the game plan, as he has taken on an expanded role late in the season and has delivered.
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> The rest of my Super Bowl props are all based on FGs. I have more detailed information on this than anyone would ever expect. It is because I had the foresight to track everything in this area for every Super Bowl, and the data I didn't have I added as I got older. These are some extremely powerful props based on FGs. I only consider the last 45 years. I have done so because the goal posts were moved in 1974 to the back of the end-zone which changed things. Here we go:
>
> UNDER   3.5 MADE FGs (Both teams)   3.5   -120
>
> The last 45 Super Bowls have topped 3,5 just 14 of 45 years (31.1%) Huge value
> **************************************************************************************************************************************
> UNDER  4.5 MADE FGs (Both teams)  4.5   -240
>
> There have been 5 or more made FGs in just 3 of the last 45 Super Bowls (6.6%) EXTREME VALUE!
> ****************************************************************************************************************************************
> UNDER 5.5 MADE FGs (Both teams)  5.5   -650
>
> THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED  0-45!
> ****************************************************************************************************************************************
> LONGEST MADE FG  47.5 YARDS    UNDER   -130
>
> There has been just 6 Super Bowls with a FG longer than 47 yards.  HUGE VALUE!
> **************************************************************************************************************************************
> TOTAL COMBINED MADE FG YARDS (Both teams)  UNDER   122.5   -110
>
> Only 12 of 45 Super Bowls have topped this number (26.6%)  TREMENDOUS VALUE!
> ************************************************************************************************************************************
> BOTH TEAMS WILL RECORD A MADE FG OF 33 OR MORE YARDS?  NO   -110
> This has occurred in just 14 of 45 Super Bowls  (31.1%) HUGE VALUE
> **********************************************************************************************************************************
IMPORTANT NOTE**********

When betting money line odds please remained disciplined!  For example on the prop that is -650, that doesn't mean to bet -650 to win 100 (if your unit size is 100.00). It means bet 100 to win 15.38. Don't get greedy thinking these are guaranteed to win, they are not! What I can guarantee which you can see is these are heavyweight advantaged props, but it is still one game and anything can happen! Whatever your unit size, stick with betting 1 unit. betting is a continuous of scraping a few dollars here and there, and suddenly when you look down, those few dollars start to add up instead of disappearing. STAY DISCIPLINED PLEASE!
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HIGHEST SCORING HALF:    2ND    -155

There has been a long history of Super Bowl games starting slowly. It seems that each team takes a look at how they are being defended early in the game before they open things up. The total points scored in the 1st quarter of 53 Super Bowl games is just 439 total points. that has led to the 2nd half outscoring the first half 1263-1142. The last 21 Super Bowls has seen the 2nd half outscore the 1st half to a record of 16-4-1. Like the odds here. The 2nd half is 8-2-1 in this when the total has been 50+ and 18-6-1 if the total has been 47+. Make the play on the 2nd half being the higher scoring half.
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HIGHEST SCORING QUARTER UNDER 21 -155

Overall there has been just 16 of 53 Super Bowls that saw more than 21 points scored in a quarter. That is just 30% if all games. The next thing to look at is the early years of the Super Bowl that had a lot of low scoring games, or at least by the posted totals the games were anticipated to be lower scoring. prior to Super Bowl 28 there was just 1 game with a posted total of 50+ so if we start from there and look at games from Super Bowl 28 forward we get a better idea on this. There have since been 10 Super Bowls with a posted total of 50+. just 2 of those saw more than 21 points scored in a quarter between both teams. make the play on the under.
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LOWEST SCORING QUARTER  UNDER   3.5   +140:

There has been 34 times out of the 53 Super Bowls that saw the lowest scoring combined score come in at 3 or fewer points or 64.2% of the time. It isn't just because the games were lower scoring in the early years, as one might expect. The fact is in the last 21 Super Bowls it has occurred 13 times or 62% of the time, including 5 of the last 7 times the total was 50+. Getting plus odds on this shows value.
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TEAM THAT SCORES LAST WINS THE GAME  YES  -240:

This is one of the best values of all. The Yes is 18-2 the last 20 years, 27-5 in the last 32 years and 33-7 the last 40 years. needless to say the odds makers swung and missed on this one.
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PLAY KC/SF  UNDER   54.5   -110





Enjoy the game!

Tulane started the season 5-1 but finished 1-5. A lot of that had to do with scheduling as the Green Wave lost to UCF, Memphis, SMU, Navy, and Temple. Their 6th loss was to Auburn. They were up yo task against several elite teams. One thing the Green Wave has done is averaged 41.1ppg as a favorite in their last 8. S. Miss has a very good passing attack that averages 8.8 yards per attempt. See some value on the total here as AAV teams have seen Bowl games average over 63.1ppg all-time and the over has cashed 57% of the time. Make the play on the over.

This game is from my super total system and the play is on the under.

High scoring teams tend to under-perform in Bowl games:

game type = BG and tA(points) >= 40.25 and total < 64 and season > 2007 and line

When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule:

week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8

SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records

ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%)  avg line: 4.3+6:  97-41-3 (70.3%)  -6:  36-102-3 (26.1%)  +10:  111-27-3 (80.4%)  -10:  24-116-1 (17.1%)  

O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%)

Make the play on the under.

When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule:

week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8

SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records

ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%)  avg line: 4.3+6:  97-41-3 (70.3%)  -6:  36-102-3 (26.1%)  +10:  111-27-3 (80.4%)  -10:  24-116-1 (17.1%)  

O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%)

Make the play on the under.

When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule:

week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8

SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records

ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%)  avg line: 4.3+6:  97-41-3 (70.3%)  -6:  36-102-3 (26.1%)  +10:  111-27-3 (80.4%)  -10:  24-116-1 (17.1%)  

O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%)

Make the play on the under.

Florida Atlantic will be at home vs SMU in the Boca Raton Bowl. Both these teams love to put the ball in the air, but the weather may curtail what is supposed to be a shootout. The winds are going to have a lot to say about this one with sustained winds of 20 MPH and husts to over 30 during the game. Rain is in the forecast as well. Bowl games with a total of fewer than 73 points with a team that averages over 40pph have played under the total to a 59-31-1 ATS. make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that os 27-3 ATS:

H and po:points > 34 and ppo:points > 34 and tS(o:points,N=2) > 80 and 49 > total > 35

SU:13-18-0 (-2.84, 41.9%)Teaser Records

ATS:13-18-0 (-2.29, 41.9%)  avg line: 0.5+6:  20-11-0 (64.5%)  -6:  7-22-2 (24.1%)  +10:  27-4-0 (87.1%)  -10:  1-28-2 (3.4%)  

O/U:3-27-1 (-8.94, 10.0%)

Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 177-112 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 153-89-8 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 46-6 ATS. The play is on the under.

season>=2012 and HD and line>8 and total>=39 and total

This game fits a totals system that plays on the under at 127-53-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals system that plays on the under at 127-53-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits my strongest NFL totals situation (at least by winning percentage).This game fits a 46-5 ATS situation and the play is on the under.

This game is part of my mega totals situation. make the play on the under.

This game fits the mega total system. Make the play on the under. (GASO/APPALACHIAN ST.)

  avg total: 45.0

Make the play on the under

  avg total: 45.0

Make the play on the under

This game fits a totals situation that is 188-110 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 163-110 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

 Kansas City is one of the loudest places to play in the entire NFL. It helps elevate the Chiefs below-average defense, and at the same time, it tends to lower the offensive output, but not in the way you would think. here is what I mean. Since taking over at QB at the beginning of last season Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs have averaged 32.2ppg at home, but 37.1 on the road. The biggest reason is they have led on average by 12ppg at home. This tends to lead to a shorter game, with the big plays kept off the field. The Chiefs defense allows 31.2ppg on the road but just 20.2ppg at home. That is 12 points different. Overall the Chiefs road games average 68.3ppg and home games just 52.4ppg. A 16ppg differential. The reason is similar, they average leading at the half on the road by an average of just 2.6ppg, almost a full 10 points less than at home. This is what has caused a hidden value on the total in this contest. Moreover, 8 of the Chiefs 11 home games have seen 57 or fewer points scored between both teams. Make the play on the under.

This game is backed by one of just a few systems that I blindly bet because it has been that good. The situation is 126-53-2 ATS and the play is in the UNDER.

NFL TEAMS IN A GAME FOLLOWING A DEFENSIVE TD:

Nothing can skew a box score more than a game that featured a team that scored without their offense. The next game tendency is usually impacted with a higher than normal total, as odds-makers realize most bettors don't go into great detail from the previous game. This applies significantly to division games, which are historically bias to the under.

ALL NFL GAME TOTAL RESULTS BY GAME TYPE (RESULTS ARE THE PERCENTAGE UNDER THE TOTAL):

NON-CONFERENCE                   48.8%       

CONF (But not division)               50.1%

DIVISION                                   52.1%****

It is clear division games have a much higher probability of playing under. These teams tend to know tendencies from playing each other twice a season every season. 

So now when the totals get skewed by a previous game that involved defensive TD things become profitable. Let's take a look:

1)  Home team scored a defensive TD in its last game

2)  This game is a division game

These games have gone:

93-145-5 O/U  or 60.1% to the UNDER

 Make the play on the UNDER

This game is a systems play. It plays on the UNDER when there is a division home favorite to a total of 44 or higher, if the opponent allowed less than 3 points last game:

 division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points

This game is a systems play. It plays on the UNDER when there is a division home favorite to a total of 44 or higher, if the opponent allowed less than 3 points last game:

 division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points

This game is based on a situation that is 109-186-2 ATS to the UNDER. 

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This game is based in large part to a very strong UNDER situation that looks like this:

Play the under in a division game with a home favorite and total >43.5 if the home favorite is on regular rest, and the opponent's previous opponent scored 31 or less points. Make the play on the UNDER.

This game is about situations and the one that applies here is on the total. A heavy chalk to a low total almost always goes over the total, and the reason is that 67% if the time the heavy chalk foes over the total by themselves! These games win 82.4% of the time and cover by 11.40 points. Right now just 1 nook has the total up, but there will be more as these FBS v FCS games often put out later lines than normal.

Play on the over in a game where the line is -30 or more and the total is 48 or less:

Sunday, January 20th, 2019

There is a long-standing playoff marker that indicates surface matters in the NFL playoffs. here is what I am talking about:

reg season HF    grass         1275-1316  O/U

playoffs HF         grass            34-45      O/U

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reg season   artificial             1064-1113  O/U

playoffs        artificial                 44-28     O/U

results are approx. 20% different to the total.

Playoff teams as a home favorite on artificial turf to a total of higher than 47.5 vs an opponent that played its last game on grass and averages more than 23ppg are 15-2 to the over. Make the play on the over.

The New England Patriots allowed a grand total of 32 points in their last 3 games. This may poise many bettors to look at the under here. History proves otherwise, as a playoff team that has allowed 32 or less combined points in their last 3 games are 35-14 ATS to the over. That includes 9-0 ATS to the over of the total is 46 or higher and 17-4 ATS if the total is higher than 43. Unlike many years in New England, foul weather will not be in play. Make the play on the over. 

Might be some rain early on Friday but it appears things should rapidly improve prior to kickoff here. this game is all about the QBs as Auburn signal caller Jarrett Stidham will be entering the NFL draft, but will play in the Bowl. I'm sure he is looking to brush up his resume vs a Purdue team that ranked in the bottom 10 this season in pass defense. Purdue has a very good QB of their own in David Blough who threw for 277+ yards in 9 of his last 10 games. he has a speedy target in freshman Rundale Moore who caught 103 balls for 12 TDs. Auburn faced some very strong defensive teams in LSU, Washington, Miss St., A&M, Georgia, and Alabama, where they averaged 22ppg, but vs everyone else 38.2ppg. The ball is going to be successful in the air here, make the play on the over.

One of the lowest Bowl totals in quite some time, as California takes on TCU. The Bears have struggled in offense all season, and their last 5 games shows they scored 15,13,13,12, and 33. They scored 33 vs Colorado by opening the first quarter with 2 pick-6's, so in reality the offense scored 19. TCU is down to their 3rd string QB, and they have also struggled all season. The best units on the field will be both defenses which are among the best in the country. The total may be low, but not low enough. This is an era of high scoring so sometimes these low totals tend to push the bettor toward the over. The last 2 years in games played with a P5 conference favorite and a total of less than 41 the under is 13-1! The average score was 22.8 to 7.9. Only one game reached as high as 43 points and that game saw running TDs of 71,67, and 60 yards, so a certain outlier. Make the play on the under.

A Bowl game where a team averages 40.25 points per game or more and the total is set at less than 64 with a line of less than or equal to +3 (which includes them as a PK or favorite). The under is 20-3 ATS in the last 23 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

Conference-USA December Bowl favorites with a total from 50 to 63.5 and not favored by -8 or more are 10-0 to the under. Make the play on the under. 

A Bowl game where a team averages 40.25 points per game or more and the total is set at less than 64 with a line of less than or equal to +3 (which includes them as a PK or favorite). The under is 20-3 ATS in the last 23 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

I have my best situation that I ever discovered that is active for this game. It is a ridiculous 368-185 to the UNDER, converting 66.7% of 553 bets. It has a Z-score of an off the charts 7.79 z-score, making it extremely predictable. When it has been a matchup of ACC teams it has been 47-14 to the UNDER at 77%. Make the play on the UNDER.

The Big-12 Championship game is a rematch of the Sooners only defeat this season as Texas won a shootout early in the season 48-45. The Sooners have the best offense in terms of yard per play of any team in NCAA Football history. The problem is they have also allowed 40+ points in each of their last 4 games, including 40 to Kansas which hadn't scored more than 35 in over 8 years in a B-12 game. Oklahoma is 9-0-1 to the over this season facing P5 opponents with an average of an astounding 87.2ppg scored by both teams. (100.6ppg last 4). Texas has been in shootouts vs the best offenses in the B-12 all season. Texas games vs Oklahoma (93), Texas Tech (75), W. Va. (83), and Oklahoma St. (73), have averaged 81ppg. Saturday games (regular rest and routine), played between a pair of P5 opponents on a neutral field are 12-0 to the over when the total is 73 or higher. These games have beaten the lofty totals by +14.62 ppg. Bettors love the over, but usually, play under these big totals. Make the play on the over.

NFL Thursday division games with a total from 36.5 to 45 are 22-2 to the under after week 11. (15-1 under in the NFC). Make the play on the under.

The Giants are giving up points at an alarming rate, while the Falcons have topped the 30 point mark in 4 of their 6 games. It certainly looks like a shootout is about to take place, but then there is the contrarian nature of the NFL and history suggests otherwise. Here are some examples. A team that is allowing 27ppg or more on the season and has allowed 25 or more in 4 straight games is 4-26 O/U in their last 30 games, including 0-10 O/U in the last 10. Giants have played 14-33 O/U in their last 47 vs a team that allows 24 or more points per contest. The last 10 meetings between these teams, with no overtime has gone 0-9-1 O/U with no game topping 50 total points scored, averaging just 34 points a game. Make the play on the under.

The first leg of the Commander and Chief Trophy will see Navy heading to the Air Force Academy. There is no secret what to expect here, both teams run out of the triple option, and Navy has gone pretty much exclusively to the run, completing just 17 passes on the season. The one thing about the option is it is difficult to prepare for as most teams do not see it but once a season, but since both run their offense out of the option, they practice against it every day. That has led to a lot of lower scoring games than expected when Air Force, Army, and Navy get together. The last 48 times a game has been between 2 of these 3 schools the under is 35-13. This year has elements to conclude that to be the case in this one. Navy QB, Malcolm Perry is coming off a concussion, and Air Force QB Isaiah Sanders has a concussion and is questionable. Navy back up Zack Abby is also questionable, as he is used in the red-zone where he has 6 TD`s. Additionally, when Coach Niumatalolo is off a bye, his team has been 15-2 to the under, on the road. Navy is now 27-12 to the under vs a team that averages less than 150 yards a game, and 35-17 to the under vs a team that averages over 200 yards on the ground. Air Force is averaging 3.77 yards per carry on the season, their lowest mark in years. Make the play on the under.

The Indianapolis Colts will be without TY Hilton tonight, which is a blow to their offense. They also have 27 players on their injury report, the top number in the entire NFL. The Colts have played 9 straight games as a dog to the under, averaging just 15ppg. Thursday night home favorites of -9.5 or more are now 14-0 to the under vs an opponent with revenge, as long as the total is greater than 35. NFL Thursday Night games with a home favorite are 82-55 to the under, including 20-4 from -9.5 and up, with the opponent averaging 11.2ppg. (9.4ppg ig the opponent is playing with revenge). Make the play on the under.

I don't play a lot of blind systems but this one is 117-47, to the under, so make the play on this game in the under.

The Arizona Cardinals have managed 6 total points through 2 games. The 6 points they managed to score came in garbage time in the 4th quarter of their first game, with less than 6 minutes to go in the game. The biggest problem has been falling behind early, and having to throw the ball on almost every down. Sam Bradford therefore has been under siege and is averaging just 4 yards per attempt. The Cards longest run has been 11 yards, and longest pass 27 yards. Falling way behind early has limited their best offensive player, RB David Johnson to 11 carries a game. The NFL always looks different than it does 2 weeks into the season, and it forces the odds makers to over-adjust things in anticipation of the public's "what I have seen" posture of betting. Early season low totals have long been over-adjusted on a couple poor performances. Since the start of the 2005 season a week 3 total of 42 points or less, has seen the over go 54-21-1, beating the total on average by +5.12 points per game. Another indicator of an over-adjustment is the fact that when a team scores less than 7 points combined in 2 straight games, the over has been 27-10-2, beating the total by +6.96 points per game. The team that scored less than 7 points combined over 2 games, has come out in the next game averaging 20.1ppg. Make the play on the over.

NFL TOTALS, WHERE IS THE MONEY?

My research on sports betting totals is quite expansive. I believe that the easiest point of entry going against the books, and of course, the odds makers, can be achieved this way. The logic is pretty simple, some bettors hate totals, and even more bettors hate betting under the total, for the simple reason your bet may be lost before the game ends. 

The question then is, how do you find logical bets regarding totals, and successfully win at a high rate? The process begins as usual, by breaking down the 3 types of regular season games played in the NFL. They are divisional (6), conference (6), and out of conference (4). 

It would then make sense to take a look at match ups in all 3 levels to see what we are looking at:

GAME TYPE                 TOTAL RESULT O/U                WIN RATE     O/U

DIVISION                               1437-1546-53                           .482**

CONFERENCE                     1151-1152-59                           .500

NON CONFERENCE              881-841-26                             .512

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This is no surprise to me, the UNDER rate strikes more frequently, as the level of importance to the game increases. The order of importance is the exact order you see above, and there is a correlation to game importance and frequency of the under. 

So now that we have isolated an important find, that through over 3000 games puts us ahead of the coin flip by about 2% or a vig eater if you will, what is next?

It would make sense to me is to now look at the game expectations? Do lower totals rend to stay UNDER? Do they go over? It is time for us to handicap the total, much the same as we did to discover division games were out target.

TOTAL                     TOTAL RESULT   O/U                  WIN RATE  O/U

=40                              843-987-35                                   .461**

Games expected to play under are over-adjusted, but from 40 up, they are under-adjusted. Suddenly we are in a large pocket of profit, with a base of over 1800 games. 

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Our last step is the best step. A team is at their most comfortable playing on 6 days rest, that is the routine they follow 80%+ of the time. We complete our look by only looking at a host on 6 days rest, and out final situation reads as the following SDQL:

Play on the under in a regular season division game when the total is 40 or more, and the home team is on regular 6 days rest:

division = o:division and playoffs = 0 and H and total >= 40 and rest = 6SU:662-507-2 (2.07, 56.6%) Teaser RecordsATS:545-592-34 (-0.28, 47.9%)  avg line: -2.3+6:  790-361-20 (68.6%)  -6:  328-823-20 (28.5%)  +10:  915-230-26 (79.9%)  -10:  232-919-20 (20.2%)  O/U:498-652-21 (-0.90, 43.3%)  avg total: 44.

We now have a sample size of close to 1300 games, and a win rate of 56.7%. (that is a z-score of 4.5, which is absolutely off the charts for 1300 games)!

This situation over the last 10 years has won in 9 of the 10, where recent results are even better at 58.8%

division = o:division and playoffs = 0 and H and total >= 40 and rest = 6 and season > 2008SU:235-193-2 (1.43, 54.9%) Teaser RecordsATS:208-215-7 (-0.83, 49.2%)  avg line: -2.3+6:  289-136-5 (68.0%)  -6:  112-309-9 (26.6%)  +10:  333-88-9 (79.1%)  -10:  76-347-7 (18.0%)  O/U:174-248-8 (-1.67, 41.2%) 

This week the situation is active in the New Orleans v Atlanta game: UNDER would be the call.

This game is based on an incredible situation that brings 2 teams together that both fit a similar situation, one as the home team, one as the road team. Auburn fits a situation that is 35-4-4 to the under, and LSU fits a very similar situation as the road team, which is 37-10-4 to the under. Combined these merging situations have gone 72-14-8 to the under. Make the play on the under.

he Seattle Seahawks team from 2013 that culminated in a 43-8 blowout win over Denver, had many thinking dynasty. The team was young, had an emerging QB in Russell Wilson, and a dominant RB. Despite all the predictions, Seattle has not won since. Once considered one of the best NFL defenses of all time, has been eroding since, and with 5 Pro Bowlers all gone now, expect a further erosion. here are the Seattle points per game allowed starting with the 2013 Super Bowl winning team:

2013    14.3

2014    16.9

2015    17.6

2016    18.6

2017    20.8

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It is very clear, the erosion has been occurring ever since, and now with just about all those Pro Bowl players, the defense is on course to be bottom third in the NFL. Denver was led by poor QB play last season, which resulted in their first losing record since 2010. They brought in Case Keenum, who had a breakout season in Minnesota a year ago. he still has a pair of Pro Bowl quality receivers in Thomas and Sanders who should benefit with him at QB. Denver is going to struggle with the loss of Aqib Talib, a top 3 cover corner. There is also the altitude in Denver to deal with. Players early in the season are not in as good of game shape as they are 4 games into the season. Denver has been posted as a home favorite 8 times vs NFC opponents in week's 1-3 (NFC teams play here just once every 8 years), and are 8-0 to the over in those games. Denver overall is 17-4-1 to the over, in week's 1-3, providing the game is not against a division opponent. (those teams play here every year). Seattle hasn't been here in 8 years, and pretty much the entire roster is different. make the play on the over.

The Cleveland Browns have won just 1 game over the past 2 seasons, and optimism is high this year, as they have added some offensive weapons to the fold. I certainly think the offense will be better, but in game 1, I wouldn't be as optimistic. The potential productive core of this offense has had very little time together. Pittsburgh (as of now), will make die without Le'Veon Bell a holdout. The Steeleers have been an under team for the last 3 years at 17-30-1 O/U, and 6-11-1 O/U in the division, and over the years, Pitt is 30-52-2 O/U to a total of better than 40 within the division, including 8-23-2 O/U lately to a total over 44, inside the division. It is a division that has seen 6 yrs pass without division games totaled higher than 40 finish with the bulk of them over. Pittsburgh's last 60 division games have seen just 12/60 (20%) score 47+ points, while Cleveland has seen 47/58 fail to score 47+. (19%). Think this line is off, and getting this out early, as I expect to see it fall. Make the play on the under.

Central Michigan went to Kentucky last week, and suffered a 35-20 loss. They managed to get the cover, but not much else. The Wildcats played an awful game, turning the ball over 4 times, forcing 0. They were lucky to win as a team making 4 turnovers, to their opponent's 0, have been 34-273 SU in NCAAF. Additionally, C. Michigan scored on a fumble return for a TD, so the offense with 4 extra possessions, put up 13. Kansas has not won more than 3 games in any season over the last 8 years. Their last win by more than 3 points vs an FBS opponent came all the way back to November 8th, 2014. They proceeded to lose at home to Nicholls St. in their opener, and the offense was dead, going back to last year's starting QB, Bender, is not the answer. I honestly don't know where the points are coming from here, neither team has a trustworthy proven QB. Make the play on the under.

Hawaii had some question marks at QB entering the 2018 season, but those may have been answered quickly. QB Cole McDonald led a high powered run and shoot offense to perfection vs Colorado St. in a 43-34 upset shootout. The teams combined for 1270 total yards. McDonald was surprisingly good throwing for 418 yards, and 3 TD's, while running for 96 more and a pair of scores. Coach Nick Rolovich promised to bring in the run and shoot, and McDonald has the look of so many outstanding run and shoot QB's that have led high octane offenses. Navy has to replace 7 defenders from a year ago, and additionally has Malcolm Perry, called by 21 year Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo, the most dynamic QB he has ever coached. he will start, despite QB Zack Abey coming off a season of running for 1,413 yards (2nd best in Navy history). Hawaii showed a lot of holes on defense in their opener, allowing over 600 yards, so I am expecting a shootout here, with both offenses far ahead of the defenses. Navy has a history of allowing a lot of points to a team that went for 400+ on the air in their last contest, allowing 37.7ppg when facing them. The last 5 times Navy has been a double-digit road favorite, they have gone for 40+, and have averaged 38.2ppg as a 10+ point road favorite in all games. make the play on the over.

The Wyoming Cowboys will have to experience life without QB Josh Allen, who was a first round pick in the NFL draft. Those are shoes that simply won't be filled anytime soon. Despite having a first-round NFL caliber QB, the Cowboys managed just 23.5 points per game last year, and there is a pretty good chance they will erode considerably from that pedestrian number. Wyoming had been looking forward to the return of RBs Trey Woods and junior Kellen, but Woods was declared ineligible, and the tandem fell shy of 1,000 yards last season. The good news is that eight starters return from a stingy defense that allowed 17.5 ppg, and forced a nation's best 38 turnovers. The Aggies ended the nation's longest Bowl drought at 57 years, and won their Bowl game to cap it off. It was their last season in the Sun Belt, as they become an FBS Independent. The offense will be led by Senior QB Nick Jeanty, who has five career starts and has passed for 1,028 yards with six TDs and six interceptions in 14 games. They bring back seven starters, along with Frank Spaziani, a former head coach at Boston College. He's made a huge difference, turning one of the nation's worst defenses in '16, into one that forced 27 turnovers, and saw the pathetic 11 sacks in '16 rise to 43 last year. Both of these teams will struggle offensively, but on defense they should both excel, so play this one to finish UNDER the total.

The Colorado St. Rams lost a strong QB from a year ago, but I think the offense is in good hands with K.J. Carta-Samuels coming over from Washington as a grad transfer. Their #1 receiver has departed but Olabisi Johnson, averaged 10.5 per target. The Rams passing attack has also added Tennessee transfer, Preston Williams, so I don`t think this offense is going to starve. Hawaii WR John Ursua, went down midway through last season and what was a pretty decent offense went in the tank. Ursua is healthy and is a difference maker. Colorado St. has a very suspect secondary, and are not all that good up front as well, and Hawaii should have success moving the chains. I think both these teams will have success moving the chains, and look for this game to play over the total.

There are a lot of reasons I like this game to go over and situationally there is support. Jacksonville, in non-division games off a win where they committed 0 turnovers and had time of possession of at least 28 minutes, facing a team off of at least 2 wins is 21-0 ATS to the over.

 I have access to a lot of NFL stats, and with the playoffs, and teams from northern climates, the weather can become a factor. This game fits nicely into a weather factor game, due to the cold, and a team from a southern climate. The high in Pittsburgh is expected to be 17 on Sunday, so this game will be played with temperatures in the teens. The most recent 36 games played with a game time temperature from 11-20 degrees shows a big impact on the passing game, and ultimately the number of plays run in a game. Home QB`s pass for an average of 5.85 yds per attempt, road QB`s just 5.25 yards per attempt, much below average. When you look at games played in an average temperature of 61-70 the number of plays run is 120, when the temp. is 11-20 it drops to 113, 7 less plays. Moreover, a team from a southern climate, such as Jacksonville, averages 16.4ppg in this temp. range. Overall, including both teams, the 146 QB`s participating in 73 games in this range have thrown TD passes of 3 in 14 games, exactly 2 in 31 games, exactly 1 in 52 games, and 0 in 49 games. That means TD passes per QB is 101 of 146 throwing 1 or less TD pass. These numbers sugget a wise historically backed play on the under

The New England Patriots find themselves in a familiar spot, at home on a Saturday Night in week 19. This is New England and many times these games have been played in less than ideal conditions, and that will be the case in Foxboro Saturday Night. Right now Saturday is projected to see the temperature go from the low 60s on Friday afternoon, with 2-3" of rain, to a low of 8 degrees Saturday Night/Sunday Morning. I know the field is covered, but it is going to be treacherous footing as the game goes on. A soft field is going to become rock hard, and icy during the course of the game. Additionally, winds will be gusting over 20 MPH, and the combination is going to limit offenses, and the kicking game. I expect Tennessee to try and run and shorten the game, and should have some success vs a soft NE front. The New England offense is not nearly as explosive as it has been in past years, and I look for this game to play under the total.

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

The Rose Bowl will host the 1st playoff game that has a pair of 12-1 teams, with stark contrasts going at it. Georgia power running game, and great defense, vs Oklahoma's power passing attack. The one question that comes to mind certainly is the health of Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, who has suffered the last several days from what is described as flu-like symptoms. He has been limited in practice, and did not participate in team events. While he may be fine, he may have issues with hydration, and stamina, we will have to see. I will assume he is 100% healthy. Thre have been a handful of January Bowl games that have put a prolific offense, against a prolific defense. I would define that as an offense that has averaged greater than 42 points a game coming into their January contest, going against a team that has allowed less than 16 points per game. Most of these games play out very close, as since the start of the 2006 season there have been just 8 such games, and 5 of them have been decided by 1 possession. If you go back all the way to 1987, there have been 22 such games. These games have seen the powerful offense average just 24.2ppg, while allowing 23.4ppg. They have on average played out very close. What you see by the numbers however, the games have not been very high scoring, in fact, 19 of the 22 failed to get to the total posted in this contest, and all 8 since 2006 have played under the total, and the most points the winner has ever had is 35, while the most points the loser has ever had is 21, which is still shy of the posted total here. The general history shows any Bowl team that averages more than 42 points a game erodes from the layoff to an average of 30ppg in a January Bowl game, while team that allows less than 16ppg, erodes a much lesser rate, allowing 21ppg. Neither of those scenarios says this one gets into the 60s. Make the play on the under.

This game is based mostly on my strongest NFL totals angle which is 116-46 ATS. Make the play on the under.

The Miami Florida Hurricanes have their Bowl game at home, but despite of that they are posted as an under dog. The Canes have won 9 straight here, and have been posted as a home dog just 29 times since 1980, and have been 2-10 to the under since 2000. The Canes always play tough on defense at home. No team is even close to what they have done on home turf allowing an amazingly stingy 15.1ppg in their last 240 home games. WOW! Better than that, the Canes have not allowed any opponent to score more than 30 points here in 15 straight games, and that team was down 38-16 with 11 minutes left. Wisconsin has been amazing defensively themselves, as the Badgers allowed 2 teams to score more than 17 against them this year. Only the ultra elite offense of Ohio St. scored 27, no one else more than 24. Last year Ohio St. got 30, no one else more than 20, and in 2015 Alabama scored 35, no one else more than 24. They have allowed 14.2ppg over their last 40 contests, and are 10-4 to the under in their last 14 to a total of 45 or less. Make the play on the under.

West Virginia's offense has been led by Will Grier, and has been ruled out of the Mountaineers Bowl game vs Utah. More bad news is top RB Justin Crawford will sit out as well. There is big drop off on the W. Virginia offense as Grier threw 388 times, and Crawford ran 191 times, and Grier had 63 runs as well. Those numbers account for nearly all the WVU snaps this season. Utah is not a good offensive team, but the defense is very good. Big-12 Bowl teams from X-Mas to New year's eve  are 27-13 to the under as well. make the play on the under in this one.

The Wyoming Cowboys have an NFL caliber QB in Josh Allen. The problem is he is protected by a poor offensive line, a poor running game, and he has not played since Nov. 11th due to a shoulder injury. he has been upgraded to probable. His numbers have suffered this season and his 6.6 yards per attempt and 56% completion percentage is down from 8.6 a year ago, and his replacement Nic Smith is at 54% and 6.4, not much difference. The Cowboys win on defense. They have allowed 12.6ppg in their last 5, and are now 12-1-1 to the under in their last 14. C. Michigan scored big against bad defenses, and were limited vs good defenses, and look for that to continue here. Mountain West Bowl teams are 36-19 to the under when the total is less than 58, as well as being 21-4 to the under when posted as a -7 or less favorite. Make the play on the under.

The 1st ever DXL Frisco Bowl will put the 7-5 LA Tech Bull Dogs vs the SMU Mustangs. This is an interesting match up, simply because newly hired SMU Head Coach Sonny Dykes was the coach at LA Tech from 2010-12, before taking the job at Cal. Dykes was hired just 9 days ago, and will coach this game, so his `air raid` offense may add a few wrinkles to the SMU attack, but for the most part left-over assistants will be doing most of the play calling. Most gamblers prefer the over, but do get a bit edgy when the number exceeds 70, as it seems like such a high mountain to climb. The fact is Bowl totals of greater than 66 have gone 31-13 O/U (23-8 O/U in December Bowls) since 2010, and with a Bowl favorite of -7.5 or less we get 23-6 O/U. (17-4 O/U in December Bowls). The 2009 cut-off is not arbitrary, it is the point in time, when NCAA Football scoring was taking off. The period from 2006-09 saw the average NCAAF game have a posted total of 51.9, and since then, 56.1. This has allowed high totals have a better chance of connecting. SMU averaged 40.2ppg this year, but allowed 35.5ppg, and playing games vs a defense allowing greater than 25ppg, their games combined for 79.2ppg. LA Tech averaged 51.5ppg in Dykes last season, and 11 of his last 12 there went over the total. His team averaged 34.1ppg at Cal, with 10 of his last 14 there over the total. His final year at both schools (when he had all his own players), saw the total go 21-5 O/U. LA Tech this season faced 2 teams that averaged 38ppg and allowed an average of 52.5ppg, while their offense against teas that allowed more than 30ppg averaged 32.2ppg. Make te play over the total in this one.

The Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders at 6-6 will take on the 7-4 Arkansas St. Red Wolves in Montgomery, Alabama. Every team looks for a motivational edge in a Bowl game and I think Middle Tennessee may have a score to settle. These teams last faced each other, both members of the Sun Belt Conference, and Arkansas St. beat MTSU 45-0. They have a chance for redemption here. teams that were shutout the last time they met their Bowl opponent, and it wasn`t the current season, the shutout team is 5-1 ATS winning outright by an average of 8ppg as an average 5 dog. MTSU is under-valued here, as they come in as the only C-USA team to have played 3 power-5 conference opponents, giving them a significant strength of schedule advantage, and upset Syracuse. This is a team that saw their highly sought QB miss 6 games, a talented WR missing significant time, and overall lost 125 player games to injury. They had just 4 players play and start every game. The rest is significant, as they will have just 3 players on the injury report. Another major edge is having played their last 2 Bowl games in Hawaii, and Bahamas, they get this one just 300 miles from campus and should have a crowd edge. They also have a significant situational edge here for this one. Bowl teams, .500 or worse, facing a team better than .500 as a dog from 2 to 10.5 in a December Bowl are 33-8 ATS, and on a recent tear, having gone 18-3 ATS in their last 21. Generally speaking a Bowl team with 6 wins, has the added incentive to use the Bowl game to complete the season with a winning record, and when facing a team with more than 6 wins, they are 68-42 ATS. It also assures their opponent isn`t very excited to play a 6-6 team. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The 10-2 Troy Trojans will take on the 9-4 N. Texas Mean Green in New Orleans. troy is getting a lot of support, ass they had one of the biggest upsets of the year, when they went don to baton Rouge, and beat LSU 24-21. Troy has had their best team's in their FBS history over the last 2 years, combining for a 20-5 SU record. The offense remains explosive, but not quite up to the standard set a year ago, but still 30ppg. Where this team has excelled is on defense where they have not allowed any team to top 25 points against them the only team in the country to have done that this season. N. Texas may look like a defensive slouch on the season allowing 33.8ppg, but their 4 losses, all to teams they were huge under dogs against, FAU (2), SMU, and Iowa, they allowed 48.8ppg against. Their other more competitive games saw them allow a more respectable 24.3ppg. North Texas will play this game without star running back Jeffrey Wilson, while Troy's win over Arkansas St. in the Conference Title game saw them lose 6 players, and 3 of them are WR's. Overall, C-USA totals have been big money in Bowl games, to the under, when the total is less than 64, where they are 3-22 O/U since 1998. Make the play on the under.

The New England patriots behind Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been a lethal combination, and continue to be. I don't think anyone would be surprised if they once again landed in the Super Bowl. They will take the field tonight without Rob Gronkowski, and he is a vital weapon for the Pats, especially in the red-zone. The Pats historically have played under as a heavy road chalk as they are 6-13 O/U as a road favorite from -8 to -15. Scoring in the NFL started to surge at the start of the 2012 season, and the games that have felt the least impact have been huge home dogs. Since that time NFL home dogs of greater than +7.5 points are 8-35 O/U. (falling short by -7.63ppg). Weaknesses don't last long around Bill Belichick. The New England defense allowed 32ppg through the first 4 games, and since no team has scored more than 17, and the Pats are allowing a league best 11.9ppg. Make the play on the under.

Sunday December 10th, 2017

The Cleveland Browns have had a poor offense for quite some time, and the Packers offense behind Brett Hundley has been awful as well. The Browns defend a lot better than their record, and Green Bay has had success vs poor offensive teams. Weather is often an issue off the lake in Cleveland in December, and it will be today as well with winds from 15-20 MPH gusting to a high as 30 MPH. Cleveland is 18-29-1 O/U in their last 48 December home games, including 4-15 O/U since X-Mas Eve of 2006, and 0-7 O/U to a toatl of 39 or less. Make the play on the under.

This series has seen the last 11 meetings play under the total. That has become well publicized, and this game opened at a fair price of 52. The public immediately bet this total down to 48, and as the game approached, and snow become the operative word in the forecast, this game has continued to plummet, and is down to 44 as of this writing and may drop more prior to the start of the game. The snow does not impact these teams, nor are snow games generally lower scoring. They both run the ball on almost every play, and the kicking game is going to have little impact as neither team kicks many FG's. The value pendulum is now flipped to the over as we have 8 points and counting from the opener of value. Make the play on the over.

It has been a season of misery and disappointment for the NY Giants, as they have gone from a playoff team in 2016 to 2-9 this season, with no hopes for the playoffs. The offense has been riddled with injuries, and has taken a step back averaging just 15.6ppg, and even worse than that over their last 5 games at 13.4ppg. The Giants last 2 games have combined to see 51 points scored by all teams, and when 51 or less points are scored in a team's last game, they are 25-10 to the over, and the Raiders are 21-8-2 to the over in their last 31 at home. More importantly here, this game fits a 39-4 situation to the over. Make the play on the over.

The Cleveland Browns have all kinds of issues, as they are 1-29 SU in their last 30, and here we are in December, and they are still looking for their first win. This is a team that has carried a strong home vs road dichotomy in their games. This season, they have averaged just 11ppg at home and allowed 20ppg, but on the road, they are scoring 19ppg, allowing 31.2ppg. This was also the case all of last season, scoring and allowing more on the road. The Browns last 21 road games have seen their opponent score 30+ in 2/3 of them, 27+ in 18/21, and 24+ in 20/21. The Browns offense has reached 20 points or more in half of their last 12 road games, while not topping 20 in 10 straight at home. They will have Josh Gordon in the line up, and Coach Hue Jackson says he will be instrumental in the offense this week. Chargers have allowed 24 or more points in 7 of their last 10 at home, and Cleveland has averaged 25ppg here in the last 2. Cleveland is 10-2 to the over in their last 12 on the road, while the Chargers are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 as a home favorite. Bigger than all that is the fact that road teams that scored 17 points or less, in at least their last 2 games, and also average 17 points or less on the season, and are playing to a total greater than 39, are 39-4 to the over last 43 occurrences. My NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER.

This is a weather play on the under.

This is a weather play on the UNDER.

The Detroit Lions saved their season last week in Green Bay with a 27-17 win on Monday Night. That has gotten Detroit even at 4-4, but they have had red-zone issues all season. Detroit has managed just 45.8% scoring TD's in the red-zone, while Cleveland is at 45%. DeShone Kizer has been in and out as the Cleveland starting QB, and his 52% completion rate, just 3 TD's and 11 INT's are not NFL caliber at this stage of his career. The Browns have gotten to 20 points just one time this season, all the way back to game 3, and have averaged just 14.6ppg with Kizer at QB. The Browns defense is better than it looks, last year they allowed 10 teams to go for 400+ yards, and this year none. Think there is some value on the under here, and a situation here that is 31-69 O/U offers some support. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 41-14 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Weekday totals (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday historically play well under the total, in fact they are 228-308-11 O/U over the last decade. Make the play on the under.

Weekday totals (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday historically play well under the total, in fact they are 228-308-11 O/U over the last decade. Make the play on the under.

The San Francisco 49ers have been just bad enough to lose each of their first 6 games in 2017. They have lost the last 5 of them all by 3 points or less. Their first 2 games of the season saw them do nothing offensively, as they generated 12 total points and under 240 yards a game. The offense has been doing much better since, as they have averaged 25.3ppg on 366 yards per game. Last week CJ Bethard in his NFL debut looked like a poised veteran when he came in and threw for 245 yards on 19-36, and nearly rallied the Niners to victory. He will get the start Sunday. The Dallas offense is doing fine, but the defense has allowed 35 or more points in 3 of their last 4, and has been average on the season. San Francisco has been vulnerable in the air, and I would expect Dak Prescott to have a big game. A team that is off a home favorite loss, and playing on the road, in the first half of the season (prior to week 9)are 55.8% to the over. These teams in their last 4 games (8 games total), has seen the average points scored in their game at 55.8ppg. Niners 18-1 to the over as a single digit dog vs a team that forces less than 1.25 turnovers per game, and allows less than 4.95 yds a carry on the season since 2006, going over by over 7ppg. Make the play over the total.

This game is based on one of my top totals situations which is 57-17 ATS, make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 75-49 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 75-49 ATS, and the play is on the under

The Ball St. Cardinals has seen their offense diminish considerably in the absence of starting QB Riley Neal. He has been replaced by 5th year senior Jack Milas. Milas was decent in his freshman year throwing 9 TD's to 5 INT's at 6.2 yards per attempt, but he has since regressed, lost his job, and has been pretty bad since. Milas since the start of his sophomore year has averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, with just 2 TD's and 11 INT's (0 TD's and 6 INT's this year. His last 2 games have seen the Cardinal's offense produce 6 points on 3.77 yards per play. C. Michigan has generated 15ppg in their last 5, playing under the total in all 5 games. This game fits a situation that is 57-124 O/U. I will make the play on the under in this one.

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under.

When you think of W. Kentucky, you think one thing, offense. That was true under Jeff Brohm, as his team averaged 44.7ppg in his 3 year tenure. Those numbers are gone, and W. Kentucky is averaging a pedestrian 25.5ppg this season, as Brohm has moved on to Purdue. Old Dominion is trying to find their way in the FBS, and the offense has really struggled this season. The Monarchs have produced just 16.2ppg against FBS opponents on the season, and turnovers have also been stinking them, as they have averaged 2 per contest. W. Kentucky has allowed 18.8ppg on the season, with no team topping 23 against them on the season. This game also fits a situation that is 57-124 O/U, and my play in this game is on the under.

The Atlanta Falcons had one of those seasons a year ago, where everything seemed to work perfectly, that is except for holding a big lead in the Super Bowl. Matt Ryan was on fire and dialed in the entire season throwing 44 TD's to just 7 INT's, including the playoffs. The Falcons reached 30 points in 13 games, and went 16-3 to the over. Those seasons are hard to duplicate, and things are not looking nearly the same this season. The 34.1ppg from a year ago has dropped to 26ppg this year, and Ryan is almost at his INT total from a year ago through 4 games, with 5. Moreover, Julio Jones was injured last game, and will play, but may not be up to speed, and Mohamed Sanu is still out with a hamstring injury. Miami is 2-2 despite averaging just 10.5ppg, and that is because they have not allowed any team to get over 20 on the season, and the most points scored in their games this year by both teams is just 36. They have played some very quick games, with none of them seeing as many as 120 total plays snapped. Ryan has faced Miami twice in the last 5 years with an average of 38 points scored. Miami fits a total situation that has been 34-59 O/U since 1989, and active for this one. Make the play on the under.