Sports Picks & Predictions

We expect a close, low-scoring game here. Both teams need to bring their A Game defensively in what is the most important game in the series. The Clippers are done if they lose this one. The Jazz don’t want the Clippers to get back in this series and they saw what happened in Dallas when LA went down 2-0 in that series. The Clippers aren’t playing with a lot of confidence right now. PG can’t find his shot. They have to get it done with defense. But we think this is too many points as we think this will be a close game. We think the Clippers could squeak by in this one and then have a much better performance in Game 4 once the confidence is back.

Denver looks totally outclassed in this series. Phoenix looks like they have barely broken a sweat and they have rolled in the first two games. This one looks like it could very likely be a sweep. We were unsure of the Suns in this postseason because of lack of experience, but Chris Paul has been playing lights out and this team seems dialed in and is playing great team basketball. We think they go for the jugular tonight and essentially put this series out of reach with a win and a 3-0 lead. We had the Suns as 3-point favorites here, and there is great value in the much better team getting points here tonight. We see the Suns putting up a big offensive number tonight, and the Nuggets won’t be able to keep up.

Denver looks totally outclassed in this series. Phoenix looks like they have barely broken a sweat and they have rolled in the first two games. This one looks like it could very likely be a sweep. We were unsure of the Suns in this postseason because of lack of experience, but Chris Paul has been playing lights out and this team seems dialed in and is playing great team basketball. We think they go for the jugular tonight and essentially put this series out of reach with a win and a 3-0 lead. We had the Suns as 3-point favorites here, and there is great value in the much better team getting points here tonight. We see the Suns putting up a big offensive number tonight, and the Nuggets won’t be able to keep up.

The Hawks have homecourt advantage now in this series and it’s time to go to work in Game 3 and protect that advantage. There aren’t many teams playing as well as the Hawks down the stretch of the regular season and the start of the postseason, and they have been beating the oddsmakers number on a regular basis. We had them as a small favorite here and expect them to win a close game here at home. Philly hasn’t covered in six tries here in Atlanta, and this team always finds a way to disappoint in the postseason.

The Nuggets were blown out in Game 1. But they have done a pretty good job of bouncing back from a bad loss in these playoffs and we expect a much more competitive game in Game 2. The Nuggets have covered in seven of the last 10 meetings in this arena and 14 of the last 20 meetings overall. We just don’t trust Phoenix that much in this postseason and think the floor will fall out from under them at some point. Denver will draw on their playoff experience tonight.

It’s rust vs. momentum here. We will go with momentum tonight. The Jazz didn’t play for almost a week while the Clippers closed out Dallas in Game 7 on Sunday. But LA didn’t look tired, and they are playing some excellent basketball. When this team is playing well, they could be the most talented team in the NBA, and we like them getting points tonight in what we feel is a coin flip game as to who wins. The long break has killed the Utah momentum while the Clippers have fresh momentum. We think the Clips will lock down on the defensive end here and that the Jazz may start the game a bit rusty.

This Atlanta team is on a 12-2 run and we feel they are being disrespected with this number. This team has quietly been one of the best teams in the playoffs at 5-1 both SU and ATS. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. This team has all the momentum and we think this game will be competitive no matter who wins or loses. We had this line handicapped at 3, so we think there is quite a bit of value and the Sixers look like a very public play tonight.

We wanted to wait to see what went down in Game 1 before we made a move on the side in this series, and this one turned out exactly as we wanted to go with the Bucks in Game 2. Brooklyn won Game 1 and that gives the Bucks even more motivation here, and James Harden went down with an injury, which increases the Bucks chances to pull even in this series. The Bucks played a pretty lousy game in  Game 1. This team doesn’t often have two bad games in a row. They are a more stable team than the Nets, who threw together a super team on the fly. We just don’t see the same chemistry for Brooklyn, and that is crucial in such a pivotal playoff game. We expect the Bucks to even this series up tonight with a much improved effort compared to Game 1.

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In the middle of this series the totals got up as high as 220 after the first two games were very high scoring. Then since Game 4 the scores have been very low scoring with the last three going UNDER. But this total has been adjusted almost 10 points from the highest number in this series, and we think the value has gone the other way. We could see the pace here starting off pretty quick. If these teams shoot well then this one will probably fly over this number. If Dallas didn’t go totally cold in the fourth quarter of Game 6 then that game probably would have gone over easy. But we are getting by far the lowest total of this series and these teams are going to do everything they can to win and pull out all the stops and the energy could be lacking on defense after a grueling Game 6.

The NBA playoffs is all about stars and although the Mavs have one of the best in the business, the Clippers have two difference-makers on the court tonight. The road team has won every game in this series, and we think that trend will continue tonight. There hasn’t been much intrigue in the postseason thus far and you know the NBA wants a Game 7, so the Clippers might get the benefit of the doubt on some calls tonight. Regardless, we think the Clippers will step up with their excellent defense and do everything they can to slow down Doncic and make the rest of the team beat them.

The NBA playoffs is all about stars and although the Mavs have one of the best in the business, the Clippers have two difference-makers on the court tonight. The road team has won every game in this series, and we think that trend will continue tonight. There hasn’t been much intrigue in the postseason thus far and you know the NBA wants a Game 7, so the Clippers might get the benefit of the doubt on some calls tonight. Regardless, we think the Clippers will step up with their excellent defense and do everything they can to slow down Doncic and make the rest of the team beat them.

The Lakers were absolutely humiliated in their last game. With a proud team like LA, that isn’t going to cut it. We expect a spirited performance tonight from the home team. AD might be out here or seriously limited. But they still have LeBron. And they still have one of the best defenses in the NBA. We expect them to play D like their life depends on it tonight, and their playoff life basically does. They have shown they can win games on the defensive side, and we expect that to happen tonight. We just can’t get behind the Suns too much in this postseason because the lack of experience.

We doubt Luka Doncic is going to be anywhere near 100 percent here. The whole Dallas offense goes through him. He is like Steph Curry in that his play makes his teammates better when he is on the court. Even though these teams had an extra day off, not sure if that is going to help much. But, regardless, the Clippers put on a defensive clinic in Game 4 and we expect to see more of the same tonight in what is up to this point the pivotal game in the series. Dallas will make some defensive adjustments as well and we don’t see either of these teams putting up big numbers on offense. The stars will probably do their jobs but we think the role players will fall short. And the extra day off will ramp up the defensive intensity.

Embiid is likely out here and the Wizards have a lot of momentum after a very nice win in Game 4. We think that momentum will carry over here. While Doc Rivers has a championship pedigree, he hasn’t done much recently, and he is starting to become more known for letting lesser teams stick around in playoff series. Washington has nothing to lose here and all the pressure is on Philly, and we think this will be a close game.

LeBron is one of the greatest of all time but he is getting older and can no longer hold the weight of the entire team on his back. That’s why Anthony Davis has been such a good compliment to him. But this team looked lost against the Suns once Davis went out, and it looks like Chris Paul is getting over his injury as he played great last time out. The Lakers are always the darlings of the oddsmakers and bettors, so you normally get an extra point or two when betting against them, and we think that’s the case here as we had this line at 7.5.

This looks like a 7-game series to us, and it’s Denver’s turn tonight. They had an ugly loss last time out, but they have had extra time off and they should come back raring to go on their home court tonight. Denver will ramp up the defensive intensity tonight with the extra energy provided by extra rest, and the Blazers have been inconsistent on defense and we think this one could be a lopsided matchup.

Just think this is too many points. The Nets have looked great for the most part in this series. But this is the most points Boston has gotten as an underdog all season. Brooklyn has been inconsistent when laying big points and they were one of the worst bets in the league when laying five or more this season. The Celtics are a very proud team with a lot of tradition, and while they probably won’t win this game we think they will go down fighting and keep this one within double digits.

We think the Grizzlies have a great chance to win this one and even the series up. It should at least be a close game. Memphis has nothing to lose and they are playing with house money right now. All the pressure is on Utah here. Last game the Jazz got off to a hot start and outscored the Grizzlies 34-22 in the first quarter. The Grizzlies pretty much played even with them the rest of the way after that slow start. Of course they won Game 1 and they haven’t embarrassed themselves at any point in this series. Even though they lost by 10 last time out, they have covered their last four at home after losing by double digits. They know this is their last best chance to stay in this series, and we expect to see a spirited effort tonight. Plus, the refs should dish out some home cooking, especially since there are a lack of games coming up as many of the series in the East have been lopsided.

Luka Doncic is questionable for this game. We have no doubt he will play. His listing on the injury report is probably mind games by Dallas. But we also do think he is ailing a bit and will be well under 100 percent in this game. But regardless, we think the Clippers have turned the tide here. If they win here then they are once again heavy favorites in this series. Dallas has enjoyed some great performances in this series and hit a lot of lucky shots. But LA is a much stronger all around team and they showed they are motivated in Game 3 and we expect to see the same type of performance here.

Boston played great in Game 3. Tatum put the team on his back and scored 50 with a legendary effort. That’s doubtful to happen again, and the Nets should bounce back and comfortably win this one against an outmatched Boston squad. This Game 3 was typical of Boston all season as they will look like they are back on track and then fall on their faces. And it was typical of Brooklyn, a team that has been inconsistent. But we think that loss was a wake up call. And with the other top seeds in the East taking care of business quickly, there will be urgency for the Nets to make sure Boston doesn’t win another game and hang around as the competition will get much tougher in the coming rounds.

Kudos to Memphis for winning Game 1. They caught Utah off guard and they got a great win. But Utah showed in Game 2 why they are the top seed as they dropped 141 points in a blowout. Sometimes good teams need a kick in the butt to get going, and it looks like that loss motivated Utah in a big way. That positive momentum should continue here. And Memphis would not even be a playoff team under the normal playoff format. This is a team on the way up but not there yet, while Utah is a true championship contender. And we think they get the job done again tonight.

We like to envision how a series will play out beforehand and bet accordingly, and we see this series going a long way or maybe even to Game 7 as we think these teams are pretty evenly matched. Portland played well last game but Denver played better, and we think the Blazers will be motivated here and even the series up. They had covered five in a row in this series before the last two losses. We think the early start time benefits the home team as they are in a more comfortable setting and should be able to handle the change better since these games have all been at night.

Miami put up a fight in Game 1 but the last two games have been blowouts. Will Miami play with some pride here? Maybe. But they are outmatched in this series and we expect the Bucks to finish this one off today. They have shown that last year was a fluke and that they are a legit contender. There is urgency to finish this one off and then wait for their next opponent. They are playing extremely well right now. We think this price is right and we expect a comfortable 7+-point win.

Dallas has been playing great in this series and they have been shooting the lights out. But they have made a lot of lucky shots, and that is undeniable. They also have some players that have unsustainable shooting percentages in this series, especially from long range. The Clippers were one of the best defensive teams all season. Their season is on the line tonight and we expect them to lock down on defense and play with massive intensity. And the Dallas shooting can’t stay this hot forever. We expect a much different look on the scoreboard after the final buzzer than we saw in Game 2.

Better luck next year, Boston. The Celtics looked cooked and this series hasn’t even been competitive. Brooklyn is healthy and playing well, and Boston is banged up and looks lost. Everything the Nets have been working towards to be in good shape for the postseason seems to be coming to fruition, and they looked poised to end this series in a sweep. This should be another double-digit win. There is some urgency to end this series quickly because the competition for Brooklyn gets much more serious as they move on.

We think the Lakers will win this series but we are surprised how big this line is. The Lakers are one of the most public teams in the NBA and their lines are often inflated. That sure looks like the case tonight as we had this one handicapped at 4. So we see nice value here on the underdog in what should be a close game. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six after a cover, so they normally follow up a great game with an average one.

We were hyped on the Bucks entering the postseason but also kind of apprehensive because of the fact that they fell on their face last postseason. Was that the Bubble or is this team a postseason underperformer? Well, Game 2 gave us a lot of confidence, and we think there’s a great chance this series ends up as a sweep. This team has unfinished business, and they looked focused and determined thus far in this series and Miami is just outmatched.

We think these two teams are closer in ability than the oddsmakers do. The Wizards hung with Utah in Game 1. It was only the third quarter where the Sixers got a bit of separation, but the Wizards covered and we think they keep this one close once again on Wednesday. Washington was one of the best ATS teams in the second half of the season. They have covered six straight as a dog and are 7-0-1 ATS coming off a loss. They have also covered in four of the last five meetings.

The Clippers are probably feeling some pressure after losing Game 1 in an upset. This team has had the ability to bounce back well in the past, and they did this quite a bit in the postseason last year. A loss here would be a big problem for the organization and we just don’t see this team disappointing again as they are just on another tier talent wise than the Mavs and they have all the ingredients of a championship contender. We expect a low scoring game and possible double digit win by the home team.

The Suns won Game 1 but we are going to back the Lakers again here in Game 2 for all the same reasons, the most important being the Suns inexperience in the postseason. The Lakers aren’t sweating the Game 1 loss and they have been here before. We think there is a lot of pressure on the Suns here and we don’t see them handling the adversity when they have a great chance to go up 2-0. This one should be all LA.

The Knicks are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. With plenty of rest coming into this game we think they will bring a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the ball. The Hawks are an underrated defensive team as well. They held their last two opponents in the regular season to 95 or fewer points. With the extended break, these offenses will probably be rusty to start off the game. And the defenses will have lots of energy. This should be a close game, and we could see these defenses really clamping down in the fourth quarter. In the playoffs defense increases and scores normally get smaller. We think this one has a real chance to be a defensive battle, and we see this total as at least five points too high.

For most of the later part of the season we have been planning to fade the Suns in the postseason. This team has all the look of a regular season wonder but a postseason failure. They don’t have a lot of postseason experience. Chris Paul has a career of postseason disappointments. This team needs some experience before they are a true title threat. Unfortunately, they drew the Lakers in the first round. The Lakers almost never have betting value because they are one of the most public teams in the NBA. There’s no doubt the Suns are scared here. The Lakers are healthy and streaking. We think this line is more than fair for Game 1 and we actually had the Lakers as a slight favorite, so we love the value here for Game 1.

The Wizards are no normal No. 8 seed. This team has been one of the stronger teams in the entire NBA down the stretch after a horrible start to the season. We think they can hang with Philly in this series. The Sixers have seen their share of disappointment in the postseason during The Process era. Even though they are the top seed, we would put the Bucks and even the Nets in front of them as a possible NBA Finals representative from the East. The Wizards are just playing very good team basketball right now, and we feel this is a very public line. It doesn’t hurt that Washington has covered in five of the last seven meetings.

Brooklyn is hot entering the postseason, but they won five straight against a pretty easy schedule. We just don’t think this team has what it takes to win a championship this season. This team has been a very bad bet most of the season, especially when laying big points. They have dealt with so many injuries and roster changes this season that this new team hasn’t had the chance to build chemistry. Boston has been a big disappointment this season. But this is a whole new season, and you can throw out the previous struggles. They played one of their best games in a long time in the play-in game against a Washington team that had been playing extremely well. We expect a competitive game here.

This is what the Clippers played the season for. All the load management, different rotations and team building was intended to be in a good place for the postseason. And we think the Clippers are in a very good place. This team didn’t care about regular season records. All they care about is winning a championship. And this team looks much better than the one we saw flame out of the playoffs last season. Paul George was having some mental issues last season in the bubble but he has been great this season, and this team is pretty much fully healthy here for Game 1. A healthy and motivated Clippers team is on a different level than this Mavs squad, and we think this line is short on Saturday.

Home teams have been dominant in this play in tournament, and we expect that trend to continue on Friday in the final play in game. The postseason is when stars shine the brightest, and although Ja Morant is a rising star, the Warriors have two established stars, including one of the best to ever play the game. We have seen time and time again that Steph Curry elevates his game to a different level when things matter the most, and the stakes couldn’t be higher here. He also makes everyone around him better when he brings his A Game, and we expect to see his best tonight. The Grizzlies wouldn’t have made the postseason in a normal format. This team is on the rise for sure, but we think they are a season away from being a true threat. With Curry, the Warriors can beat any team in the postseason if he elevates his game. Golden State has been a great bet lately as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Memphis when playing in the Bay Area. The Warriors scored a double digit win in this same arena against the Grizzlies on May 16. We think there is a great chance they score a comfortable win tonight by 7+ points.

This game features two of the most clutch players of all time facing off in an unprecedented game of two recent championship teams playing for the right to make the playoffs. But Steph Curry has been in fine form for a long time, while LeBron has been oft injured and is just getting back into rhythm for the postseason. This team just doesn’t have a lot of chemistry right now. They won five straight to end the regular season, but they covered only two of those games and they faces teams with questionable motivation while LA had all the motivation. But they will face an extremely motivated Golden State team tonight, and the Warriors are playing well and have covered six straight games. We had the Warriors as slight favorites here and we think it’s their game to lose.

Memphis won the last two meetings in blowout fashion. This seems like a team on the way up, while the Spurs seem to be on the way to irrelevance after being one of the best teams in the NBA for the last couple decades. Memphis has won five of six entering the play-in tourney. They are in good form. The playoffs are all about stars, and Ja Morant is the best player on the court here. The Grizzlies were one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season, and we think they are undervalued here once again. They are a bit better on both sides of the ball and they have all the momentum heading into this matchup.

Just think this season is a wash for the Celtics. Jaylen Brown went down for the season. That seemed to take the air out of this Celtics team that looked off anyways. They have dealt with many injuries all season and never got to develop the necessary chemistry needed for a championship run. They lost five of six games to close out the season, and they didn’t reach the century mark on offense in three of those games. They are banged up heading into this game with key players nursing a variety of injuries. The Wizards got off to a slow start this season, but they have been playing as well as anyone in the NBA lately. They have been a covering machine as they have covered the majority of their games over the last month or so. They are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. They are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The last five meetings have all gone under the posted number.

Just think this season is a wash for the Celtics. Jaylen Brown went down for the season. That seemed to take the air out of this Celtics team that looked off anyways. They have dealt with many injuries all season and never got to develop the necessary chemistry needed for a championship run. They lost five of six games to close out the season, and they didn’t reach the century mark on offense in three of those games. They are banged up heading into this game with key players nursing a variety of injuries. The Wizards got off to a slow start this season, but they have been playing as well as anyone in the NBA lately. They have been a covering machine as they have covered the majority of their games over the last month or so. They are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. They are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The last five meetings have all gone under the posted number.

We think this line is short. We were expecting a bigger number and think there’s decent value here tonight. The Hornets are backing into the play-in tournament and they have lost five straight. This play-in is new and we don’t have many trends to rely on, but this tournament seems built for teams that are in good form, and the Hornets don’t seem to be that team. The Pacers have been playing a lot better and have won three of five, and they have been a hot ATS team as they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games. Indiana has all the postseason experience here and this is a new ballgame for the Hornets. We think the Pacers will win comfortably here.

We think this line is short. We were expecting a bigger number and think there’s decent value here tonight. The Hornets are backing into the play-in tournament and they have lost five straight. This play-in is new and we don’t have many trends to rely on, but this tournament seems built for teams that are in good form, and the Hornets don’t seem to be that team. The Pacers have been playing a lot better and have won three of five, and they have been a hot ATS team as they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games. Indiana has all the postseason experience here and this is a new ballgame for the Hornets. We think the Pacers will win comfortably here.

Maybe both teams want the Blazers to win here? The Clippers sure looked like they tanked their last game to avoid the Lakers potentially in the first round or closer down the road. Now the Blazers are in that position. They have a chance to knock LA into the play in tourney. Denver doesn’t have any incentive to win and let the Lakers into the top 6 seeds. We see Portland going all out here and the Nuggets focusing on their first-round opponent, which could possibly be these Blazers, so why would they want to give too much away?

Boston is solidified in their play-in tourney position and we think this is a throwaway game for them. We don’t see starters getting too many minutes. The Knicks have been the top defensive team all season and we think they will want to finish the regular season with a strong defensive performance against a bitter rival. The under is 4-1 in their last five and they have been excellent on the defensive and. The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings, and we expect that trend to continue here on Sunday.

The Celtics have lost four straight. This team will not have many starters in the game today because of injuries or rest. This looks like a team that just wants to focus on the play in tourney next week. Minnesota got off to a real bad start to the season and a lot of that had to do with injuries. But this team has played a lot better down the stretch and has the look of a team that wants to end the season on a positive note. We don’t think Boston cares much about this game as they have their sights set on next week.

Despite a 20-50 record, the Pistons are 35-33-2 against the spread. They get too many points on a regular basis. This team is building something good, and the players play hard and play until the final buzzer. Do they get blown out from time to time? Sure. There is a lot of developing talent on this team. But they get an A most nights for hustle, and this has the look of a team that wants to finish the season on a positive note. This team is 26-16-1 ATS when getting five or more points this season, so they are a pretty safe bet as a big underdog. Denver has been overrated by the oddsmakers as they are 1-4 ATS in their last five. This team is pretty secure in their postseason positioning and we just think they have their eyes towards the playoffs now and they aren’t going all out here in Detroit. The Pistons have covered in five of seven meetings. We expect a close game here, and a SU win by the home team wouldn’t be shocking.

Portland is one of the main teams that need a win tonight. There are three teams trying to stay out of the play-in tournament – Portland, LA Lakers and Dallas – and right now the Blazers are on the right side of the standings. A win here would go a long way to securing their spot. They have been road warriors lately, covering in six of their last seven road games. The Suns are pretty secure in their playoff seeding and this game has no real importance to them compared to Portland. We think the road team will pull out all the stops to win this one.

We were really impressed by the Clippers last win over Toronto. This has the look of a team that is getting healthy at the right time and wants to build some momentum heading into the playoffs. Ibaka is the only main player that will be out tonight. The Clippers have had a real light schedule down the stretch, so they should have plenty of energy here. And they have covered in four of the last five meetings.

Boston has lost three straight, but that has been against much tougher competition then they will see tonight. This has all the signs of a Get Right game against the Cavs, and we think Boston will be primed for a big win. They probably can’t avoid the play-in tourney, but they can at least build some momentum for the postseason, and that is much needed right now. Cleveland is 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games despite some generous lines from the oddsmakers, and we think the road team has a great chance for a double digit win.

These teams played in Washington on Monday and the Hawks won by one point. It’s tough to beat the same team twice in a row, and we think the Wizards have a great chance to win this one. The points are an added bonus. Beal should play here. Washington has been playing as well as any team in the East since a slow start. They are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season. And we think they are getting too many points once again.

These are the Top 2 defensive teams in the NBA. This game should have a playoff atmosphere. We think these top defenses will be on display tonight. The Lakers are getting LeBron back likely tonight, but he will probably be rusty after missing some games. They are desperate and in must-win mode since they are as of now in the play in tournament. They will want to do their best to move up and avoid that. This is a major rivalry for the Knicks. Everything about this matchup tells us these two teams will likely go all out on defense, and we think this total is too high for two Top 2 defenses.

The Magic have suffered two 30+-point losses in their last three games. This team is so wracked with injuries they are fielding a G League-level team right now. And this team stunk before all the injuries. Those big losses were to Minnesota and Boston, one team that stinks and one that is not playing well. The Bucks are in on a back-to-back, and they suffered one of their worst losses of the season last night in San Antonio. They lost by 20+ in what was obviously an off game. We like to back a good team after an embarrassing loss like that as they normally give a lot better effort in their next game. Even on a B2B they should have enough energy to beat this Magic team without breaking too much of a sweat. The Magic haven’t covered in the last six games in this series, and we think they run into a buzzsaw tonight against a Bucks team that will want to remove the bad taste their loss from last night left them.

The Bucks have been playing some ridiculously high scoring games lately. They have combined for 269 points or more in two straight games. Their offense is clicking very well and they are content to light up the scoreboard instead of bore down on defense. The Spurs are real close to missing the playoffs as they sit in the No. 10 spot in the West. They need a win here. They have not played well recently but we expect them to be competitive here in a must-win game. They should be able to score on the Bucks and we doubt this one will be a blowout so both teams should get their points. The over has cashed in this series for years as these teams don’t meet often, but the over is a perfect 6-0 in the last six meetings. We expect a barnburner tonight.

As bad as the Magic have been playing, the Wolves are not in a position of power to be laying more than seven on the road to anyone. This is the biggest favorite they have been all season. The Wolves have lost three straight and didn’t cover in any of those games. The Magic have won and covered in three of their last six games, so they aren’t playing that bad right now overall. There is more talent on the Wolves side for sure, but we think this is an inflated number.

Popovich has the Spurs playing well down the stretch. They haven’t had much to show for it in the W/L column as they lost two crucial games in OT. They are coming off a blowout loss vs. Utah and we always like to back a solid team after an embarrassing loss. The Spurs are barely clinging on to the No. 10 spot in the West and the last spot in the play-in tournament. Sacramento is still alive, but barely. Sacramento has seen some mild success lately. But we just don’t believe in this team in a must-win game against a more talented Spurs squad and one that is better coached.

Both teams are dealing with injuries but we think the Jazz are the better team and they have better weathered their injury status. We are very impressed with their last two games as they swept a desperate Spurs team that is fighting for their playoff lives. We expected this number to come out closer to 6, and with a lean to Utah at that number, so we are going with the value here tonight.

Boston is rested. They had the night off Thursday, and before their 36-point domination of Orlando last time out, they had two days off before that. The Bulls are coming in on a back-to-back. They won last night but had dropped four straight before that, so they aren’t in great form right now. The Bulls are the more desperate team. They are four games out of the last spot in the playoff play-in, with six games left. They are done. And they have been playing like it. They are here in the spot out of the playoffs because they aren’t a very good team. Boston has a lot to play for as they are on the bubble of the play in tourney, but they are currently No. 6. They control their own destiny to avoid the play in. And most importantly, they have been a great bet in this series as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five in Chicago and 12-3 ATS overall in the last 15 meetings. The Bulls got a rare win in this series last month, but we don’t see it happening twice in a row.

The Clippers have been one of the best ATS teams in the league all season and the Lakers one of the worst. The Clippers haven’t been covering lately but they are as healthy right now as they have been in a long time, and they face their biggest rival tonight. The Lakers don’t really think of this as a big rivalry for them, but the Clippers do. That’s why the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Clippers didn’t play well last time out vs. the Raptors but still won. We think they were looking ahead to this game a bit. We expect their best performance tonight in what should have a playoff atmosphere. But the Clippers are healthy and the Lakers aren’t, with LeBron and several key players out tonight.

The Spurs lost to the Jazz on Monday here in Utah. They were down big in the first half but played much better in the second and kept the score respectable even though they missed the cover. But this game becomes a lot more important for San Antonio. They are two games in front of New Orleans for the last spot in the play in tourney. They need to get a win. They have lost four straight against a very tough schedule but they went to OT at Boston and vs Philly even though they couldn’t pull out the win in either of those games. The Jazz have covered in only two of their last six. They already beat the Spurs on Monday and they don’t have a lot of motivation for seeding as they seem locked into a Top 2 spot. Have to thing that Popovich, one of the best coaches in the history of the game, will have his team motivated here in this rematch. The Jazz have covered in only one of their last six home games, so they have been overrated by the oddsmakers and are missing some of their Top Guns again for this matchup.

The Wizards are the last team in for the play in tourney in the East so it’s imperative that they keep winning. They have been playing like a legit playoff team after a slow start to the season, and the oddsmakers continue to undervalue this squad. They have won seven of 10 so they are in good form. They have covered in 14 of their last 17 games, so they are not being lined correctly. The Bucks come in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. They just had a doubleheader against Brooklyn, a team they will likely cross paths with in the playoffs. They probably won’t take this game as seriously. And the Bucks haven’t been blowing teams out of the water lately. We think the Wizards will be hyped to compete here and expect them to cover.

The Clippers are the healthiest they have been in awhile, and their two stars are expected to play tonight. They have lost three straight and they are desperate for a win right now. They have had two nights off to regroup and should be ready here. As of right now they are set to play the Lakers in the first round. They won’t say it, but they don’t want it. They will probably do their best to move up in the seeding, and they don’t have many chances to do it left. We think they give their best effort tonight and win this one by double digits.

These teams played last night and the Warriors blew out the Pelicans. But it’s very hard to beat a team twice in two nights, especially on their home court. New Orleans is out of the playoff picture as things stand now. Every game is a playoff game for them if they wish to compete in the play-in tourney. Last night the Warriors jumped out to a big lead but New Orleans played with them all the rest of the game, and we expect a more complete performance from them tonight.

This is a battle of two Top 10 defenses and we expect a low-scoring game. But we think Denver will have the stronger motivation tonight when it comes to the ATS angle. These are possible first-round opponents in the postseason. The Lakers right now are trying to get AD and LeBron back into playing shape. All they care about is to be healthy and in a good headspace come playoffs. They don’t care much about this game. The Nuggets will want to prove something, we expect, and they should bring a lot of energy here. Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league right now and they are coming off a win against the Clippers that was very impressive.

This is a battle of two Top 10 defenses and we expect a low-scoring game. But we think Denver will have the stronger motivation tonight when it comes to the ATS angle. These are possible first-round opponents in the postseason. The Lakers right now are trying to get AD and LeBron back into playing shape. All they care about is to be healthy and in a good headspace come playoffs. They don’t care much about this game. The Nuggets will want to prove something, we expect, and they should bring a lot of energy here. Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league right now and they are coming off a win against the Clippers that was very impressive.

Orlando won last time out and they have won two of three. We just think they are satisfied and the Pistons, losers of two straight, will be the more motivated team here, especially at home. Both of these teams are dealing with long injury lists. But the Magic don’t handle success well and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five after an ATS win. The Pistons are also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. We think the home team will show some motivation here in an easily winnable game.  

The Celtics have had players in and out of the lineup all season, so it has been hard to get a read on this team. They should be pretty healthy tonight with the exception of Walker. We think this team is ready to make a move approaching the playoffs. We had this line at 6.5 with a lean to the Celtics at that number, and we think they are a bit undervalued tonight. We expect a comfortable 7+-point win.

OKC’s offense has been playing pretty well. They put up 119 on offense in a win last time out over Boston, a solid defensive team. That was the second time in four games they put up 115+. We think they will be able to score against the Pels. New Orleans plays fast and with not much defense. They will get their points for sure against an OKC team that is playing out the string with not much D. We think OKC will be able to get enough points to make up the rest of this total.

Both teams are dealing with a bunch of injuries right now and both teams have been trending to the under. We think this game will be somewhat of a slog. Detroit has gone under three straight games. Their defense has played well, and their offense has struggled. They have scored 100 or fewer points in three of six games. Dallas has an excellent defense, and we just don’t see the Pistons doing anything special on offense tonight.

The Nets have been a bad bet all season. But they seem to be coming together as we head towards the postseason. They have won and covered three straight. That includes wins over Boston and Phoenix, so they haven’t played creampuffs. The Pacers are banged up and they are coming off a home blowout to Portland. They face a big step up in competition here against one of the NBA title favorites. We think the Nets have a great chance for a double digit win.

The Jazz are coming off two straight losses to the Timberwolves. We could forgive one loss. But two straight tells us this team is not playing well right now. Sacramento has won two of three and they are playing well right now. They have covered their last four games as a listed underdog. We just expect a close game here and we think this spread is inflated a bit since the Jazz are a much more popular team with bettors.

The Lakers have been playing in a bunch of low scoring games lately and the Wizards have been playing in a bunch of high scoring games, so something has gotta give here. But the Lakers are one of the best defensive teams in the league and we think they will keep the score down tonight. We don’t think they want a shootout here as a lower score gives them the best chance to win. The Wizards offense tends to struggle against the best defensive teams, and this is an inflated total tonight.

Boston could have all their best players back here and the Hornets will be missing top players tonight. Boston has not been playing great as they have lost three straight, including a blowout to these Hornets. That sets up a solid revenge scenario and we think a healthy Boston team is in a good shape to get it tonight. Boston is 7-1-0 ATS in the last eight meetings at home. Both teams are on a back-to-back but Boston is at home for both games, so that’s a distinct advantage.

The Hornets have improved offensively in all of their last three games, culminating in scoring 125 last time out in a win over Boston. The Bucks are coming off an “off” offensive game, but they have scored 124 or more in three of their last four. We don’t see them having any problems scoring tonight, and the Hornets should be able to effectively make up the rest of the points to easily get this one over the posted number.

Boston is coming in off two straight losses, so this is a “get right” game for them. And they are playing just the right team to get back on track against. The Thunder have a rag tag group of players competing right now. They have been just god awful on defense as they have given up 119 or more in four straight games. We think Boston will put up a monster number on offense here and they should have no problem covering this big number. The Celtics are resting a couple key players, but that is why we are getting a value number here on Tuesday.

The Clippers have shown this season that they can put the players they have available to them on the court and have great success. They have been one of the best ATS bets in the NBA because of their depth and they have great chemistry together. They have missing players tonight, like always, but this team seems very dialed in right now and they seem intent on getting a high seed for the postseason. They are well rested and going up against a Pelicans team that hasn’t been playing their best lately.

When you are one of the best teams in the NBA and you lose to the Wolves, you know you had an off game. That’s what happened to the Jazz on Saturday as they played very poorly at home and lost straight up. Now this is a quick turnaround rematch, and we just don’t see anything other than the Jazz brining their A Game. Utah is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings here in Minnesota. This is a team that can beat bad opponents by double digits without breaking a sweat. We think that loss on Saturday is a wake up call for Utah and they will put their best foot forward tonight.

It’s tough to take a flyer on the Magic with the way they have been playing recently, but we don’t think the Lakers should be heavy favorites like this on the road against anyone. This team has lost four of five and covered in only one of those games. They are dealing with injuries and they are working Anthony Davis back into the mix with limited minutes. They take the best shot from opponents on a nightly basis. Orlando needs a competitive game and they should be hyped up for this one. They have covered in six of the last seven meetings with the Lakers.

These teams played Friday and the Grizzlies won a close one. When teams play in consecutive games like this you have to take a serious look at the team that lost the last matchup. The Blazers were playing their third game in four nights during that matchup and we think they will be more fresh after being off Saturday.

Portland has won three of the last four meetings. They have lost three straight but they have had a really tough schedule. We think they are the better team here and we expect them to bring their A Game to stop the losing streak. This line seems more than fair for the home team as we had this one handicapped at 5, with a lean to Portland at that number. We think the Blazers pull away in the fourth for a comfortable win.

The Pistons are 25-10-1 ATS when getting five or more points this season. They covered last night as a big underdog (barely) and we don’t think a back-to-back will affect this team all too much as they are young. They play hard every night, and last night was an indication they play to the final buzzer. The Spurs aren’t a very good team this season and we just don’t think the big spread is justified here. The Pistons hung with the Mavs last night and now they take a big step down in talent level.  

The Pelicans have lost four straight and haven’t covered in any of those games. They have been horrible on the road this season and have one less win on the road than the sorry Magic have at home. We just think this is a very public number for what should be a close game and a winnable one for the home team. The Pelicans are 10-20 ATS when laying points this season and 1-6 ATS when laying 7.5 or more. This has been one of the worst bets in the NBA this season. New Orleans hasn’t covered in any of the last five meetings.

We think this ECF possible preview will have some defensive and playoff intensity. It could also be a blowout, which would bode well for the under in our opinion. The Sixers are coming in on a back-to-back after a grueling game against the Suns last night. This will be their third game in four nights. The Bucks have been off for two nights. At this point in the season rest is so crucial, and the better team has the huge rest advantage here. We see the Sixers really struggling on offense here tonight.

We like to go with the losing team when these teams play back-to-back matchups. It’s hard to beat the same team twice on consecutive nights, and especially when the losing team is at home. Minnesota hasn’t won back-to-back games since way back at the beginning of the season in December. The Kings were kind of embarrassed last night as it was a close game and then the Wolves dominated late. We think they will play better here tonight in the rematch.

The Pistons have been a great underdog play this season. They are 24-10-1 ATS when getting five or more points. This is a bad team but a young one that plays hard every night. The average bettors isn’t going to go anywhere near them, but they have shown value all season long in the underdog role, and Dallas is just 6-10 ATS when laying more than five points, so they haven’t been a profitable favorite. Also, should Dallas be laying this many points when they have lost four of five, and the one win was that miracle shot at the buzzer vs. Memphis?

These teams have similar records, but the Bulls are a way better ATS team. They are coming off a big win over Boston that should really help with the confidence of this young team. This team can be streaky, and we think that win may springboard them to some short-term success. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite. They are 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings in this series. The Bulls seem like the more motivated and confident team here tonight.

The Clippers are getting healthy and should have their best two players back for this matchup, LA is one of the best ATS teams in the league. They win and cover games like this. Portland is once again banged up, and we think they could face a buzzsaw tonight. LA is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games and they have been getting the job done away from home. LA has covered in all of the last five meetings.

The Kings have not been good lately, but they are still better than the Wolves. They are coming off a big win at Dallas, and this is a chance to start a rare winning streak. We think they will be up to the task. The Kings have been a disappointment, but they have had a much better season than Minnesota. The Wolves don’t play well on the road against bad teams as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four in this situation. This is also a revenge game as the Kings lost in Minnesota earlier this month.

The Magic are trending to the over, and that’s the way we will go with them again. They have faced low totals a lot recently since this team has a history of lousy offense and decent defense. This team has been dealing with a lot of injuries that have disrupted the defense, and at this point in the season they are going nowhere so hard to commit the energy to D on a nightly basis. Their offense has been decent lately, and we think they can score enough against Atlanta to get this one over the posted number.

Have to go with the hot Knicks here. New York has won six straight and they have covered in nine straight games. The number here has not been adjusted enough, in our opinion, as this team is seemingly flying under the radar right now. Charlotte is coming off a big win against Portland, but this team has been inconsistent and has lost four of five overall. We will go with the momentum here against what we feel is a short line.

Boston has some players questionable for Monday and this line could move if some of those players were given the green light. We won’t be scared off by the line movement in that event. We think Boston has a great chance to win this one by double digits. This team has never been about individual players. They play great team basketball, and when they are playing well the system works even with some parts missing. The Bulls will be without LaVine again, and that hurts as he is one of their best players and this team isn’t deep. They snapped a five-game losing streak last time out with a win over Cleveland, but that’s nothing to write home about. That was their only cover in the last six games. Boston is playing their best basketball of the season and they have done it against a really difficult schedule. We don’t think they will overlook this opponent since every win matters after their slow start. When this team is playing well they have been one of the best ATS teams the past several years. This boils down to great coaching. Boston is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings and we expect them to get a very easy win tonight. And don’t forget, even though the Bulls were off last night, this is their third game in four nights as they had a B2B in that Cleveland game.

We were on the Blazers/Spurs OVER last night, and Damian Lillard was a late scratch and his loss changed the complexity of that game. The Spurs got up to a big lead and kind of coasted from that point (they let the Blazers back in it and lost by one). But the Spurs have been an over team as of late as seven of their last nine games have gone over the posted number. They face a rested a very good Suns offense tonight, and we don’t see them slowing them down. And the Spurs offense has been playing well lately, so we think they get their points as well. The over is 7-1 in the Suns last eight home games.

The Celtics are back! They have won five straight and the slow start to the season is seemingly in the rearview mirror. This line to us says that the bookies don’t believe in Boston, but we do. Golden State has won four straight. But they aren’t “back,” they are just hot right now. When playing well the Celtics are one of the best teams in the NBA. Can’t say that about the Warriors with the current lineup. And they have had a very easy schedule lately while the Celtics have won three difficult road games in a row. Boston always plays well in this series (9-3-1 ATS in last 13), and we expect them to get a comfortable win here tonight.

These teams have a similar record, but the Wizards are a much better team. Detroit has been overachieving, while the Wizards got off to a real slow start because of injuries and team chemistry. Detroit is probably a bit fresher tonight with both teams coming in on a B2B. They rested a few players on the first end of a B2B. But because they rested those players, we think management sent a clear message of tanking, and we don’t think the Pistons will be too motivated here. Washington has been playing very well lately, and we don’t think they will pass up the opportunity for what should be an easy win.

We think the sky is the limit for this total. This should be a close game and both teams will get their points. Overtime is always a possibility, but we don’t think we will need the extra five minutes to cash this ticket. The Blazers average about 115 points per game. We aren’t worried about their offense. They are healthy now and they have scored 115 or more in four of their last six games. Most of those point totals were against better defensive teams than the Spurs. The over is 4-0 in the Blazers last four as a road favorite and 5-0 against a team with a losing record. So the question is if the Spurs can score enough to get this one over the total. We think so. They have scored 119 or more in three of their last four games. Their offense is playing very well at the moment. They have done this against some pretty solid defensive teams, and on the road no less. They have gone over in four straight and seven out of eight. Portland has the No. 26 defense for points allowed. They allow 115 a game. We think the Spurs can score more than that tonight. Betting the over when these teams meet has been one of the strongest bets in the NBA for years. The over is 36-17 in the last 53 meetings. It is also 7-1 in the last eight meetings in San Antonio. We expect a barnburner tonight!

The Lakers are a bit of “fool’s gold” here as they have won four of seven but those wins were over Charlotte, Toronto, Sacramento and Brooklyn. Only one real quality win among those teams, and Brooklyn is a “work in progress” right now as this team is tinkering with a lot trying to have chemistry and stability once the playoffs start next month. And even the Lakers called that game the best win of the season. The Celtics have won six of seven. They DO have some quality wins there as they won in Portland and Denver in their last two. They also beat the Knicks, who are playing well now. This team is pretty healthy and has shrugged of their slow start. And this team has been one of the safest bets in the NBA the last few years as they normally have a great ATS mark. We think they hold the Lakers to a real low point total tonight.

The Pacers have been playing well. They lost a tough one to the Clippers last night and enter on a back-to-back. They had won their previous three games. They actually played really well last night but the Clippers brought their A Game. But they drop way down in talent tonight against the Rockets, and this should be an easy win for the road team. The Pacers have been really good on offense lately and we think they will be able to put up enough points to win this comfortably tonight.

We think revenge is an overrated handicapping angle, but we do think it applies in certain instances. When the previous game was a blowout (embarrassing) or if the game was recent. The game against the Clippers at Staples Center was the last game for Detroit. They hung with LA and easily covered the spread. They were in position for the win most of the game. Now they are at home and facing a Clippers team on a back-to-back and missing a couple key players. The Pistons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against teams with a winning percentage above .600. They get up for big games, and we expect a close game tonight.

The Magic have been playing like dog poop lately, to be blunt. But there’s no way the Bulls should be laying this many points to any team. This is the most points the Bulls have given up all season. They have lost three straight games. They are back at home after a long road trip and have been on the road mostly for several weeks. This first game home is often tricky for the home team as the players have personal business to attend to and their minds might not be in the game. Orlando is 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road underdog. They are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning percentage less than .400.

The Thunder are coming off a string of blowout losses and playing with a rag-tag group of young players. But we think this is a good spot for them to be competitive. The Jazz are coming in on a back-to-back. They lost to the Wizards at home last night and didn’t look great in doing so. The Thunder have had two nights off so they have a huge rest advantage. The Thunder have covered in all of their last five games in Utah. With this big of a spread, even with a blowout we can still cash this ticket.

The Pacers have won three straight. They are playing really good basketball right now and shooting the ball extremely well. They have shot the ball better than 50% in two of their last three games. The Pacers got off to a slow start to the season and they are in No. 9 place in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They need to keep winning to avoid dropping out of play-in contention. The Clippers have been playing well. This seems like the type of game where they may slip up, however. They have been at home for a long time. This is their first road game since March 25. They are without three key players tonight in Kawhi, Pat Bev and Ibaka. The public is all over the Clippers in this one and we think the bookies have set the number to make LA appealing. We expect a high scoring game here and we think the Pacers have a great chance to win outright.