Sports Picks & Predictions

2-Unit Play Take Toronto/Indiana UNDER 238.5 (7:30 p.m. EST, Wed Nov 22)

We were on the over for the Pacers game last night and we mentioned that soon it was time to fade the over in Pacers games. We think tonight is a perfect opportunity as this line was overinflated by maybe 5 points. The NBA is never as easy as  blindly following a trend, and with both teams on a B2B, we see some offensive struggles.

3-Unit Play Take Brooklyn +3.5 over Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST, Wed Nov 22)

Easy call here. This is one of the best ATS teams (Brooklyn, 9-3-1 ATS) against one of the worst (Atlanta, 4-9 ATS). This is a very winnable game for the road team, and Brooklyn pretty much brings the same effort on a nightly basis while the Hawks can't say the same. Brooklyn is well rested, while the Hawks played in a track meet last night.

We just don’t like this New Orleans team this year. They started hot out of the gates last year and then faded, but they look much worse this year. They have some moments and there is talent here, but their star and franchise cornerstone has lots of bad karma surrounding him and it seems he doesn’t have the mental fortitude to become a superstar in this league. Sacramento has won six straight and has won and covered every game of this current road trip. They are 8-4 ATS on the year and continue to be underrated by the oddsmakers. They won the last two meetings in blowouts, and we expect a comfortable win here tonight.

OKC has covered in seven of the last eight meetings. They have won six of seven and are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. And those were no bottom feeders, either, as they scored B2B wins over the Warriors, beat the Suns, and also the Cavs. Portland has lost three straight by double digits and they are in for a long night tonight.

Minnesota has covered four straight in this series and five of the last six. Of course we understand that the Pelicans just beat the defending champs and come in on a two-game win streak. But this team hasn’t shown any consistency this season and they are probably overconfident now. This win streak followed a four-game losing streak that saw them get blown out three times. Minnesota is the much better team right now, and this line is evidence of that as the oddsmakers aren’t putting too much stock in the win over Denver. And neither are we.

Miami has been racking up the wins lately, but four of those games came against four of the worst teams in the NBA so far this season. They take a big step up in class tonight and this should be a very tough game for them. Brooklyn has won five straight meetings with Miami. The Nets are 9-1-1 ATS on the season. This team doesn’t have any big names so they don’t get respect from the oddsmakers, but they compete hard every night and play with a true team mentality. They also have plenty of talent and a roster of players that compliment each other. We think they have a great chance for the outright win tonight. Miami is not a good regular season team, and things have been going a little too well for them lately.

The Hawks have the better record right now but there’s no doubt to us that the Knicks are the better team. They already won comfortably here last month. They have been playing very well recently until they played their worst game of the season last time out on a back-to-back against Boston. But Boston is a Top 3 team in the NBA, and the Hawks should provide a nice opportunity to get back on track. This time the Hawks are on a B2B. And even though Young didn’t play last night (new father), the rest of the roster will have a tough time keeping up the pace against this physical Knicks team.

Nice revenge spot for Indiana as they lost to Philly on Sunday. They were ahead for most of the game but the Sixers rallied in the fourth. It is really hard to beat a team in consecutive games, especially a strong team like the Pacers. Indiana had won three straight before that loss to Philly, and we think they will make the necessary adjustments to hang close or even win outright.

Even though it has been at home, the Knicks have won three straight. And they have looked good in the process. And sometimes building confidence at home can translate to continued success on the road. We don’t doubt that New York will be hyped for this matchup even though they are on a B2B. But they easily dispatched Charlotte on Sunday and this game was early so not too intense a B2B. These teams opened the season against each other so this sets up a revenge scenario since Boston won the first one.

Tough to lay this many points with the Clippers with the way they have been playing. They came off a tough road trip winless. This is no Must Win this early in the season, but you sense this is a majorly important game with LA at 3-5. The good news is that all three of those wins came at home, all blowouts, and this Memphis team is certainly vulnerable to get rolled today.

Milwaukee has enjoyed a home-heavy schedule to start the season, and they haven’t been great on the road. They are also 1-6-1 ATS this season and have been overvalued by the oddsmakers. We think that is the case today. The Bucks will get their best shot from every opponent, and the Magic are an underrated team and 6-2 ATS on the season.

Love the Hawks in this spot. They are playing well, having won four of their last five, with the loss coming last time out at the Thunder. Orlando is a fine team, but they are still working a lot of things out early in the season and they just haven’t been consistent enough to trust against a team like Atlanta. The Hawks are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, so they normally bring their A Game vs. the Magic.

Boston has won and covered two straight in this series and seven of the last 10. We are getting a nice line tonight because Philly is 6-0 ATS, but they will not last forever. Boston always gets up for big games like this and we could see their best effort of the season so far. The Celtics have also been one of the best betting teams for several years, so they can usually be trusted in these spots.

Harden will debut tonight for the Clippers and this team has a lot of firepower. Health is always a problem with this team but they are healthy now and the slow-starting Knicks are in for a long night, in our opinion. The Clippers have struggled on the road but we think the bright lights of MSG will bring out the best in this team.

Memphis is 0-5 to start the season. We think they will get their first win tonight with style points. This team has lots of talent even without Morant. This is their first game of the in season tournament, so we think there is a great chance for this to be the impetus for them to snap out of this funk. Portland will finish with one of the worst records in the west. While Memphis hasn’t played well, this roster is miles better than what the Blazers will be trotting out, and if this matchup was the first game of the season (without the way the Grizzlies have played), Memphis would probably be around a 7- or 8-point favorite here based on the talent.

We love the Jazz in this spot tonight. We think they are being punished too much by the oddsmakers for this being a back-to-back. But this is a young team, and this is early in the season, so we don’t think that will come into play tonight. The Jazz ran roughshod over the Grizzlies last night and the starters got some extra rest. No starter played more than 28 minutes. These teams don’t play often, but the Jazz are 8-1 in the last nine meetings. Orlando normally doesn’t play well here. The Magic are an exciting, up and coming team, but they were bad on the road last year and they should be this year also. The Jazz were a surprise team at the start of last season and they were one of the best betting teams early. We think they are a solid bet at this point in the season, and we expect them to win outright tonight.

The over has cashed in seven of the last ten meetings, and the last meeting saw 250 scored by both teams. We could see that kind of offensive output tonight. These teams are going to run tonight and execute their offense quickly. Washington is No. 1 in the league for pace to start the season, and Atlanta is not far behind. When teams play at this kind of pace, the total can weather a couple cold spells and still go over. The last time Washington met a team high in the pace ratings was their game against Indiana that saw 263 points scored. We think this one can be that kind of barnburner tonight.

These teams combined to go 5-0 to the under, and the bookies haven’t adjusted this number enough. Both teams have started slow on the offensive end and both are playing really well on defense. We think the defenses will both step up here as this is a big game for both teams early in the season. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

The Grizzlies are being punished too much on the line for this back-to-back. The season is still young, and back-to-backs aren’t that big of an issue right now. And Memphis has some depth. Washington is getting used to live without Bradley Beal, one of the franchise cornerstones for what seemed like a lifetime. They have new faces and lots of question marks. Their absolute ceiling is the play in tourney, while that same ceiling is a championship for Memphis. Memphis has won six of the last eight meetings. We think they make that seven of nine tonight and win this one by a comfortable margin.

Philly has won two of the last three meetings. Milwaukee is undergoing a lot of changes and it will take awhile for the team to completely gel, and we think it will be slow going for this team for the start of the season and they will be facing inflated lines. We expect a close, hard-fought game here and we think the defenses will step up against an inflated total. The under has hit in three of the last four meetings, and we expect this one to fall under the posted number as well.

Detroit is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Detroit was a solid bet when getting big points last season, especially early in the season. Miami is more of a playoff type team that turns in on in the postseason, but this team has slogged through the regular season the last couple years, and they can’t be trusted laying this kind of number.

Fans of offense are really going to enjoy Opening Night as these two teams always light up the scoreboard when they meet up. Three of the last four meetings have gone over the posted total, with one push, and all would have gone over tonight’s posted number. The offenses will be ahead of the defenses to start the season, and both of these clubs have tremendous firepower offensively. These are going to be two teams that will both be in the Top 5 for points per game by season’s end barring major injuries. Chris Paul will be very motivated against his former team, and despite some players out there is still plenty of firepower. Both teams should bring their A Game here as this is one of the biggest games of the season for both teams with two of the major contenders in the west. This will be a very competitive game, as the spread indicates, and both teams will get their points. The winning team has scored 123 or more in the last four meetings, and we expect that kind of offensive output here on Tuesday night.

We think the pressure got to the Heat a bit in this series and they had just come off a grueling Eastern Conference Finals. They have never quite got their footing in this series. The pressure is essentially off now that they are in a big hole and we think they will play free here and we just think this is too many points. The Denver defense has been good, but also the Heat haven’t shot well so they are due for a better shooting game. We think they Nuggets might not bring their A Game with such a cushion in this series and we wouldn’t be surprised if the Heat challenged for the win here. We know from what we have seen in these playoffs that the Heat aren’t just going to roll over.

Some people might follow the Zig Zag Theory here in Game 4 assuming Miami will strike back and even up the series. They have been resilient for sure. But we don’t think so. Denver is the best opponent they have faced in the postseason and the Nuggets are a complete team. Denver got a wake-up call in Game 2, and they responded like we expected in Game 3 in Miami with a dominant performance. This team is hungry, and the championship is right there for them. We don’t think they are going to squander the opportunity, and we think they will treat this game as a must win and bring their A Game tonight. With that Game 3 win, Denver has now covered five straight in Miami, and they are 27-10 ATS long term against the Heat, which is a long term string of domination since these teams don’t play often.

This Heat run in the postseason has been legendary, but we have to go with our handicapping here and that states the Nuggets are the stronger team. Miami used a big fourth quarter for their Game 2 win, and they shot the lights out in that game with almost 50 percent shooting from the floor and three-point land. We think Denver will clamp down more on defense and we see a slower paced game here and we think Denver will come out on top with a comfortable win.

Love Denver in this spot in Game 2. Denver is almost unbeatable at home, and teams that win in this playoffs are covering at a very high rate. Miami looked great and this run has been incredible, but Denver is definitely their strongest opponent yet in this postseason, and the Heat have been on the wrong end of plenty of blowouts this postseason. They have lost six games in the playoffs by nine or more points. We think Miami will put up a fight in the first half but that the Nuggets will start to pull away in the second and should win this one comfortably by the final buzzer.

The Miami/Boston playoff series was one of the most epic postseason series in awhile, and that had to take an emotional toll on the Heat. We know that we are still thinking about it, so we can’t imagine what is going through the players minds, and then they have to shift their focus pretty quick here. We don’t see it working out well in Game 1, and a blowout would bode well for our position here. The Heat have gone under in four straight games, while the Nuggets have gone under in four of six. They could start off the game with a little rust, and even a short cold spell could help the under immensely.

All the pressure is on Boston here. They have been one of the favorites in the East all season, while not much was expected out of Miami, especially after they landed in the Play In Tournament. We have history on our side here as no team has ever come back from down 3-0 to win a series. But we will go with the spread in the case of a close game. We expect a low scoring game here, and that makes the points with the underdog all the more valuable. Also love that this one is on the other side of the key NBA betting number of 7 (when the team down stops fouling at the end of the game).

Love the Celtics to win here and we think this line is more than fair after the beating Boston put on Miami in Games 4 and 5. They have totally taken back momentum in this series. We don’t know if they will go on to win this thing, but we do think they will force Game 7 tonight. Boston seems focused and they haven’t once panicked even down 3-0 in this series. They have the swagger and experience to get the job done here, and they have a major edge in talent on the floor. They have stepped it up on the defensive end the last two games, and we see more of the same here in Game 6.

Boston has tons of talent and a lot of playoff experience, and we don’t think they are out of this series yet. We don’t even think they are panicked. They sure didn’t look like it in Game 4. They put their heads down and confidently got the job done. That was a 17-point road win with their season on the line. All they need to do is take this one game at a time and a win here would put them right back in this series. And the oddsmakers seem to agree with this line. But we aren’t worried about the points here. Boston has covered in every game they have won this postseason, and in 12 straight stretching back to the regular season. Even though we took Miami in the first three games of this series, we love to back the Celtics this season because of their resilience and their competitive fire. They don’t want to just win, they want to dominate. We think they captured the momentum in this series and we expect another big win as they have seemed to figure things out a bit and made the necessary adjustments.

The Celtics have a lot of postseason experience and we don’t think they will be too panicked here. It is rare to come back from this deficit, but the Celtics can take it one game at a time and get back in this series. A win here, and they are back at home and favored for Game 5. Miami has been the better team in the series but the Celtics have the players are experience to avoid the sweep tonight. Also, might the refs give Boston some extra calls? We are confident the NBA doesn’t want two sweeps in the conference finals.

It is very rare to get a sweep in the NBA Playoffs, especially the conference finals, and we just don’t see it happening today. The Nuggets have the series firmly in hand, and they will likely let up a little here and won’t have that killer instinct on the road, while the Lakers will be clinging to any last hope to save their season and extend this series another game. Even though Game 3 was pretty one-sided, the Lakers hung tough in Games 1 and 2, and we think they go all out to get the win here tonight.

Miami has simply been the better team in this series and they have the chance to deal the knockout blow tonight as it would be extremely difficult for the Celtics to come back down 3-0, with two more games scheduled in Miami. This line is a very public one as we had this game handicapped at PK, so there is great value here as we think this one goes down to the final minute and should be a very close game.

The Nuggets match up very well with the Lakers and despite this being a must win for LA, we think Denver has a great chance to put LA on the brink of elimination here then they could let down in Game 4. But we think this team is very hungry for a championship and Denver will treat this like a must win. Denver has shown they can hang with the Lakers offensively, but they are the stronger defensive team, and that will be the difference here in Game 3, at least where the spread is concerned as we just don’t see LA running away with this one.

We are a big believer that when Boston wins they normally cover. But we think this may be a rare situation where they win but don’t cover the spread. This is simply too many points. We had this line handicapped at 6, so this number, on the other side of the key NBA number of 7 (when a team with the lead stops getting fouled at the end of the game), offers very nice value. Miami is playing their best basketball of the season right now and they have proven to be a legit championship contender. We are sure they are aware that Boston came back from an early hole to beat Philly, so we think they will go all out to try and win this one and put Boston in the worst possible spot for the series.

We expected Game 1 to be high scoring but we think these teams will settle in for Game 2 and we expect a much more defensive game tonight. And we are getting an even better number here for the under in a game we expect to be totally different from Game 1. Three of four regular season games between these teams went under, and the Lakers will clamp down on defense tonight and we think this total could go under by more than 10 points.  

Denver is almost unbeatable at home, and we expect another big performance tonight. The Lakers have surprised in the playoffs and they have looked good, but they will be facing, in our opinion, the best team in the west here, and they are taking a big step up in competition for the conference finals. The Lakers haven’t been good on the road this season. And they have had trouble in Denver in the last couple seasons, where they are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings here. Denver is 21-9 ATS at home against above .500 teams, and they will be ready for another dominant performance tonight.

Philly had Boston right where they wanted them for Game 6 with a chance to close it out at home, but they couldn’t get the job done and now Boston is a decent favorite at home to win the series and they have all the momentum. Boston is one of the teams we love to trust as they usually win by more than the spread when they do win. And they are excellent as a favorite. Boston has tons of postseason experience and the guys know what they need to do here. We think they bring their A Game today.

We rarely ever bet on the Lakers, so you know we like them if that is the way we are moving on this game. Golden State has stunk on the road all season. They had some road heroics in the first round at Sacramento, but this is a lot better team they are facing tonight. The Lakers made the right moves at the deadline and they are gelling at the right time. The Warriors had a long season last year with their extended playoff run and we think this team will finally run out of gas here in Game 6. Golden State has been following the Zig Zag theory for NBA playoff betting as they are 1-5 ATS after a win. They haven’t covered in the last five games in Los Angeles.

We think Boston is still in this series. In fact, we think they will win it. They are not panicking and they have players that have seen and done it all. The Sixers got the upper hand the last two games, but we think Boston will lock down on defense tonight and pull away in the fourth quarter in a low-scoring game.

Three of the four games in this series have gone over, but two of those went over on the final bucket. We expect a low scoring game here with these defensive minded teams. The Knicks have played pretty solid defense in this series but will have to go all out on the defensive end tonight to keep their season alive. We think they will leave it all on the court tonight. The Heat play at one of the slowest paces in the league and they will want to exert their will here. The under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in New York.

Home court has held serve in this series so far, and we expect more of the same tonight. We think Denver is the better team and we expect a strong showing with one of the best home court advantages in the league. We doubt Booker will play like he has in the last couple games, and we think we will see some top performances from some of the role players on Denver.

The Warriors were not good on the road in the regular season, but they did win some crucial games in the postseason in Sacramento already and we think they have the experience and talent to bounce back here after getting handled in Game 3. Golden State shot horribly in that game, and this team just doesn’t stay cold for long. Golden State has bounced back nicely after ATS losses lately as they are 4-0 ATS in these situations.

Love the Nuggets in this spot. We feel they are clearly the better team. They were never going to sweep the Suns, but Phoenix got their win in Game 3 and played about the best game they could, but Denver was still in striking distance at the end. We expect a better effort from the road team in this one and not quite the same effort from the home team. We had the Nuggets as a one-point favorite in our handicapping, so excellent value here and the points could come in handy if the game goes down to the buzzer.

Both games have gone over, but as this series goes on the defensive intensity will pick up. Miami plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, and they should set the tempo early on their home court. These teams are getting very familiar with each other, and we think this will be a very low scoring Game 3. Even though both games have gone over, Game 1 should have gone under but there was a late meaningless bucket, and Game 2 could have gone either way. We think that sets up for a slugfest here, and we think the oddsmakers should have lowered this total.

We absolutely love the Celtics in this spot. We think one of the best things that could have happened to this team for the series was to lose Game 1 at home. That has upped the intensity and the urgency for this team, and it showed in their dominating Game 2 performance. Embiid came back for the Sixers in Game 2 and played decently. But who knows how his health will hold up here. If this was the regular season, he would for sure be out for an extended period, and it’s never a great idea to rush a player back. But even if he is 100%, we still like Boston here. The Celtics normally cover when they win. This has been one of the safest teams to bet on for several years as they normally bring their A Game and they play great team basketball. This is a team that you can trust. And they know they have a great path to the championship this year with some contenders bowing out early. We really think this is an important game for Boston, and they are a tier above the Sixers, and we think they flex their muscles tonight and take back home court advantage in the series.

We had the under in Game 1 and barely missed. But we noticed the oddsmakers didn’t adjust the total here despite the game going over and the public largely liking the over in this matchup. The under is 7-2 in the last nine for Golden State after an ATS loss, and we think they step up the defense tonight. In fact, we think both teams will step it up on defense and we think this one will land comfortably under the posted number.

We were on Philly in Game 1 and had an idea they would be competitive but did not expect them to win. This puts Boston into an almost Must Win situation tonight. But this is a veteran team that has seen it all and done it all, and we think they will be fine. When Boston wins, they normally win by enough to cover as well. They have been prone to some bad efforts in these playoffs but normally bounce back with a stellar performance, and that is what we see tonight, especially with Embiid likely out again for Philly

We had the Under in Game 1 and had a bad push on a late, meaningless bucket. That game was a bit higher scoring than we expected, and we think this one will turn into a defensive battle as the series goes on, especially with so many banged up players on each team. We see the Heat having a lot of trouble scoring in this one and expect the Knicks to pull away late. Nice bounce back spot after getting surprised in Game 1.

Philly is likely without Embiid tonight as he is listed as doubtful. But this is a very solid team even without the MVP candidate. We think they keep the game close with DEFENSE tonight, and this total is too high. The last three meetings all went under, and we all know teams step up the defense in the playoffs. These are two Top 5 defenses and we think that is on display tonight, and the Sixers probably cover because the big underdog points are more valuable in a low scoring game. 

The Warriors should have won Game 6 at home, now they are in a real bad position having to win Game 7 in Sacramento. They have been horrible on the road this season. This team played a lot of basketball last season with a long playoff run, and they really looked tired in Game 6, and this is a quick turnaround, and we don’t see them getting the job done here. They have the experience, but the Kings are for real and they have a lot of swagger and we think they bring their A Game in what should be an electric atmosphere in Sacramento.

We were not impressed with what we saw from the Suns in the first round. They let the Clippers hang around in almost every game despite a banged up LA squad. They face a huge step up in competition here. Denver is flat out the better team, and they have the best player on the court. Jokic also has more help around him than ever before, and they are almost unbeatable at home. We think the home teams will win in this series, and there is great value in this line as the Suns are overvalued in the market right now.

We don’t see the Kings going down without a fight, and if they can scrap to a win here, then they have a great chance to close the series out at home. They have suffered only one blowout in this series, and we don’t see it happening again here. They have covered in 12 of the last 15 meetings here, and we don’t see them being intimidated. This team has played with a lot of confidence and swagger, and they are the team with nothing to lose tonight, so they can play free. We see another close game here.

Boston has been great in bounce back situations and we think they will be very focused here since Atlanta stole one in the last game. Atlanta has shown they can be competitive and we think this game will be until Boston pulls away late, but both teams will get their share of the total in this one.

The Bucks are in a desperate situation here and we think they will step up the defense here. Butler went off for 50+ last game but we don’t see him being as hot here and he doesn’t have a lot of help with the Heat injuries. With all the games going over so far, we think this line has been overadjusted and we think this could be the lowest scoring game of the series so far.

This Clippers team is toast. The role players have played decently enough but you just get the feeling that not only is this series done, but this team might get blown up in the offseason. Kawhi is out again and dealing with major off-court issues anyways. Coach Lue was defending him to the press and the tone there was that the season was already over even though he wouldn’t say that. We think this one has the biggest chance of a blowout of the series.

We expect to see a game that looks more like Game 1 tonight than Games 2 or 3. After a real low scoring one last time out, the oddsmakers didn’t make a big adjustment to their number, and that is telling. We see a competitive game here and think both teams get their share of the total tonight.

This series has just been pure domination by the Celtics, and this is one series that looks like a possible sweep. Boston knows the importance of getting a series over with quickly in the first round. Boston is a very good road team and they will be motivated here to put another nail in the coffin for the Hawks. Boston is one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season, and we think they will flex their muscles again here in Game 3.

The Suns played an amazing Game 2 and the Clippers didn’t play their best, and they were still in it for the majority of the game, We think this series is close than most others and the Clippers should have a great chance in both games at home. We had this game handicapped at pickem, so we think there is really good value at this number, especially since it’s above the NBA key number of 2.

We think the Suns with Durant are a tad bit overrated and we think the Clippers without George are a tad bit underrated. And we love this line for the underdog on Tuesday. Yes, the Suns were 8-0 with Durant in the regular season. But this is the playoffs, and Durant still hasn’t had time to gel with his teammates. The Clippers have a lot more depth and they can punish you from a variety of areas, whereas the Suns are very thin even though they have more star power. We expect another close game here.

These teams finished out the regular season against each other and now play in Game 2 on Monday. Philly scored 134 and 121 in those two games, respectively. And the Sixers didn’t even have a full squad in the regular season finale. We don’t see any way the Nets slow down the Philly offense, and we expect them to put up another big number tonight. We think there’s a possibility that the Nets make some offensive adjustments and do better on offense and play a more competitive game. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings, and we think that trend will continue here in Game 2.  

Love the Kings in this spot. They were the much better team in the regular season, and this isn’t just a flash in the pan as this team will likely be good for years. Maybe we will be seeing a changing of the guard in this series for the top team in California. Golden State is 11-30 on the road this season, and we don’t expect them to suddenly fix their road woes in the postseason. They are also 5-13 in the last 18 meetings against Sacramento. The Kings won’t want to let a season worth of hard work to go to waste by giving up home court in Game 1, and we think the Warriors are getting too much respect in this Game 1 because of past accomplishments.

We were on the Wolves against the Lakers and were lucky to cover that one after one of the worst fourth quarter performances of the season. OKC looked great against the Pelicans and they didn’t look nervous or intimidated. They looked like a playoff team. Minnesota sure didn’t. We think the poor play late will carry over here and we think the internal problems the Wolves are facing will be too much to overcome here.

We can’t deny that the Timberwolves are a circus right now with everything going on with this team right now. But with all the negative media attention, plus the Lakers being one of the biggest public betting teams in all of sports, this line has been way over adjusted. Minnesota still had a solid team to bring to the court tonight, and they have covered in six of the last seven meetings and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to LA to play the Lakers. Some very nice value in this line tonight.

The Mavs got a lot of heat for tanking out of the play in in their last game, and their main players are out here. This is still a better team than San Antonio will have on the court today, and we think the Mavs will go all out to get the win here with the roster they have on the floor. We think that Dallas has nice motivation here because of the controversy and we expect a comfortable win today.

The Clippers need a win here. A loss could mean the play in tournament. They won’t lose, but we think this one will be a blowout. The Blazers are looking forward to their offseason and they have a skeleton crew roster right now.  The Clippers are relatively healthy. Portland has lost four of their last eight games by 20+ points, and that shows they just don’t care that much at the moment. LAC have covered all of the last six meetings in LA.

This game means a lot for the Pelicans who want to move up out of the play in and the Knicks are stable at the No. 5 seed and will be trying to avoid injuries. The Pelicans are playing excellent basketball down the stretch and they have been winning and covering a lot lately. If this team can get into the first round or win in the play in then Zion Williamson could be back for the playoffs, and a healthy Pelicans could be a force to be reckoned with. So they have some extra motivation here.

It’s not often that we see the Spurs listed as a favorite, but here we are. And we think it’s very justified for this game tonight. Both teams have skeleton rosters here. But the Spurs have the better roster here and home-court advantage. Plus, they are in a better state mentally than the Blazers. The Spurs have been tanking all season and they know what they are. The Blazers had high expectations this season and fell well below them, and this franchise will be facing a lot of changes soon. The Spurs are just further ahead in their plan and we think that translates on the court tonight. They also have a winning record as a rare favorite and have covered in five of the last seven meetings.

We liked the rested Clippers before we saw the Lakers use tons of energy last night vs. Utah, and now this looks like an even worse spot for them against the Clippers, a team that has owned them in recent years. The Clippers have won and covered five straight in the series. They are coming off two straight losses and they need a win badly here. The Lakers have played two grueling road games since the Clippers last played, and they needed OT last night to get by Utah, so this is a supersized back-to-back and their third game in four nights. Tough task against a Clippers team desperate for a win.

New Orleans is playing as well as any team in the Western Conference right now and they are on the verge of moving up from the play in and being a Top 6 seed as they are one game out. They face a Kings team that didn’t play well Sunday in a loss to the Spurs. They face a considerable step up in class tonight against a well-rested team. The Kings have covered only two of their last seven meetings here and normally don’t play their best in the Big Easy.

Two very good defensive teams here and we see points being hard to come by tonight. The Knicks are coming off a spectacular defensive performance where they held the Heat to 92 points. Cleveland has held two of their last five opponents under the century mark. The Cavs are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA for points allowed, and they have had two nights off, so they will have plenty of energy for lock-down defense. The under is 4-1 in their last five playing with two days of rest. The Knicks are trending to the under, with four straight going under the posted total. The last two meetings both went under, and the finals were well under tonight’s posted number.

Love the Celtics in this spot. They are coming off a drubbing by the Wizards in a game where they were probably looking ahead, and we are getting a better line as a result. Milwaukee is on a back-to-back and they played a crazy game last night vs. Indiana where they scored 149 in a fast paced game. They worked hard and ran a lot, and we think they will be tired here. The Celtics always seem to get up for big games, and the Bucks have been the opposite as they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight against teams above .600. Boston is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Milwaukee, and they won’t be intimidated at all to play their best here tonight.

These teams played on March 16 and the total went over by 25 points. But just because one game is high scoring, doesn’t mean this one will be. Both teams have crucial players on the injury report, and we don’t see the Pacers having anywhere near the success they did in scoring 139 last time. Milwaukee will no doubt tighten up on the defensive end, and Indiana won’t shoot as well as they did in the last meeting, especially from deep.

Just think this is too many points and a possible letdown spot for the Celtics with their big game against the Bucks looming. Washington hasn’t covered a lot of spreads lately but they will no doubt want to play well here against the Celtics in front of the home fans, and we just don’t see Boston running away with this one, especially since they likely have their eyes on the Bucks matchup on Thursday.

The Sixers two best players are questionable here and this Philly team is reeling a bit. They have lost two straight and three of four, and those losses weren’t pretty. Denver has won and covered three straight and four of five, and it seems this team’s recent struggles are in the rearview mirror. Denver matches up well here and this team seems to have raised their level of play lately and in the last few games this team looks like a squad that can beat anyone. We think they will want to make a statement in this possible NBA Finals preview.

After scoring below the Century Mark in two straight games, the Spurs broke out with 124 in a losing effort in Washington last time out. We don’t see them getting anywhere near that against a Top 5 defense here. The Spurs have a lot of injuries right now and their lineup hasn’t been a cohesive unit lately. There’s not much indication the Spurs will even care about this game. And a likely blowout bodes well for the under.

It seems the Nuggets are back on track as they have won and covered two straight and three of four. The Bucks are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights, and you have to think that the key guys will get limited minutes if they suit up at all. Health for the playoffs is more important to the Bucks here than winning. The Nuggets are well rested here, and a win would go a long way to putting their recent poor play in the rear-view.

The Spurs have gone under in three straight, and their offense has been abysmal. They have scored 94 and 84 in their last two games. This team has a questionable roster to begin with, but they are very banged up right now, although they should get some players back from injury tonight. But this roster hasn’t had much continuity lately, and we don’t see their offense getting back into a flow tonight. The Wizards have an underrated defense. They are also trending to the under, as five of their last seven have gone under the posted number. This Spurs defense is bad. But it’s unlikely that they allow anywhere near the 130 they gave up to Milwaukee last time. The Wizards offense is Bottom 10 in the league for scoring, and two of their Top 3 scorers are out tonight.  

This is a strong revenge spot for the Clippers after the Thunder edged them here on Tuesday. Not only is this a revenge spot, but the Clippers are mad/frustrated with their performance on Tuesday as they had the ball with a near full shot clock down 1 at the end of the game and didn’t even get a shot off. Paul George will miss this game and all the others to end the regular season. But Kawhi and a deep roster around him should be able to pick up the slack against a Thunder team that has been playing above their heads recently.

Utah has won two straight, including an impressive home win over Boston. They have covered in six straight and they are trying to hold onto their spot in the play in here tonight. The Blazers are cooked and don’t have a realistic chance to make the play in, so they are basically playing out the string here. They enter on a six-game skid.

Brooklyn has lost three straight both SU and ATS. They had been playing well after the big trade, but they seem to have fallen off a cliff lately and their offensive struggles have been the culprit. That doesn’t bode well for tonight against the top defensive team in the NBA. Cleveland has been playing well, and they have been beating up on bad teams lately. We think this one has a good chance to be a blowout.

The Clippers are trying to put it together before the playoffs. They had their four-game winning streak snapped last time out vs. Orlando, but this team should bounce back well here, with or without Kawhi, who is listed as questionable. Portland has lost five straight and covered in only one of those games, so they are definitely vulnerable, and you know the Clips want to string together some wins and solid play before the postseason.

There is some reverse line movement here as the majority of the cash is on the Sixers but the odds have moved the other way, which is always a good sign since we were really high on the Pacers to start off with. The Sixers are playing great, but they are on a back-to-back here and playing their third game in four nights, while the Pacers are well rested here with Friday off. Philly has been playing very well, but they should be tired here and we don’t see them giving 100%. These teams played two weeks ago, here in Indiana, and the Sixers had to rally for a four-point win. We think Indiana can do even better here and possibly win outright. Indiana needs to win games down the stretch to make the play in. So they will be the more motivated team. Philly traditionally struggles in this matchup as they are 0-4 ATS in the last four visits to Indiana and 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings overall.

Cleveland has gone over in the last four games, but we are getting a great number here as the oddsmakers have overadjusted. Cleveland has the No. 1 scoring defense in the league. We expect them to hold Washington to a real low total. The Wizards are underrated defensively. They are in the top half of the league for points allowed. The under has gone 6-2 in the last eight meetings, and we think that is where the value is tonight. Cleveland is coming off a blowout loss to Philly last time out, and we think they will step up the defense here against an inferior team. This one has a chance to be a blowout, which would bode well for the under.

10-Unit Play Take LA Clippers -2.5 over Golden State (10 p.m. EST,  Wed March 15)

Something has finally clicked with the Clippers. After a season of trials and tribulations, this team finally is playing at the level that most expected coming into the season. And tonight is their most important game of the season as they are tied with the Warriors and a game behind the Suns. By the end of the weekend, if all goes according to plan, Los Angeles could see themselves in the Top 4 in the West. After a season of major ups and downs, LA is in a great position to get a decent seed and do some damage in the postseason. But they need a win tonight. And we think they do just that. This team is well rested and has had three nights off coming into this super important game. The Warriors are coming off consecutive wins over the Bucks and Suns. So they are in a letdown spot here. And this team has been horrible on the road this season. They are 7-26 on the road. And they are 8-23-1 ATS on the road. A healthy and clicking Clippers team is better than the Warriors, and we think they prove that on the court tonight.

Best of Luck, Doc's Sports

There is a chance this line could move through the day depending on the status of Damian Lillard for Portland, but we like the Knicks for a comfortable win even if the Blazers star plays. The Knicks are often underrated on the road, where they have played excellent basketball this season, and are 23-12 ATS on the road. This current road trip hasn’t gone the best, with a head-scratching loss in Charlotte and losses to playoff teams in the Clippers and Kings. So there will be a little bit or extra urgency here to salvage the road trip. Brunson will likely miss this game for the Knicks. But this is a more complete team than the Blazers, and we think New York will be fine without him. This is the Blazers first home game after a long road trip and that can often be tricky for a team as the players often have their minds on personal business rather than the task at hand.

Sacramento is a very good team but Milwaukee is a great team. They are coming off a loss at Golden State and will want to get back on the winning track here. Milwaukee should be getting the Greek Freak back tonight, and this Bucks team can go toe to toe with the Kings on the offensive end. But they are much better at defending, and they will have a big edge on the boards, which should result in many second chance points.

The Spurs are coming off an improbable win over Denver, but this team is not going to build a winning streak or anything. They are probably too happy with that win and this could be a letdown spot. OKC has won and covered in four of their last five, so they are in good form. The Spurs have covered only one of the last eight meetings.

Brooklyn is Fat and Happy with three wins in their last four, but we don’t see that success continuing tonight. The Wolves are the better team and this line is more than fair. Minnesota has also won three of four and they are playing well right now. Brooklyn usually doesn’t play well here and they are 5-16 ATS in the last 21 meetings.

The Pacers are not a great team. But they can score. And they will be highly motivated here as they are a couple games out of the Play In Tournament. They know that if they don’t get a convincing win here, that they don’t belong in the postseason. We think they get the job done. The Rockets are one of the most tanking teams right now, and they have covered only two of their last nine games. Both of those were against the Spurs, another tanking club, so maybe that was just a case of San Antonio wanting the loss more. They aren’t covering despite some very generous lines from the oddsmakers. Indiana has covered six of seven, so they have been a money machine lately and underrated by the oddsmakers. The Pacers are 21-13 ATS at home, and they normally take care of business against bad teams. The Rockets are 11-22 ATS on the road, where they normally get massive spreads like we see tonight. Houston normally doesn’t play well here and they are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Indiana.

The Clippers have been a schizophrenic team, but when they start playing well they can string together some good games. They are healthy and they snapped their losing streak last time out vs. the Grizzlies. They also played well in a one-point loss at Sacramento before that. We think they are primed for a win and a cover here. Kawhi will no doubt want to play well against his former team, and this just looks like a game where the Clips Big Two could potentially go off for a big game. You know the Clippers stars like their rest, and this team has had two nights off.

Milwaukee is playing the best basketball of any team in the NBA. They ended their long winning streak lately vs. Philly, but they look to start another winning streak tonight. These teams played last week in Milwaukee, and the Bucks won by 20+. We don’t think a venue change will make too much of a difference here. Revenge is out the window since the teams have had games in between. Orlando has a nice foundation for the future, but they are not playing as well as they were a couple months ago. This team is unlikely to make the play in tourney, so looks like tanking is in order down the stretch.

The Pacers have covered in five of six, and this team is playing well at the moment. This is a letdown spot for the Sixers after their big win vs. the Bucks on Saturday. Indiana has covered five of six in this series and they normally bring their A Game when facing off against Philly. The Sixers have also covered only one of their last seven meetings here. Indiana needs all the games in hand that they can get and we think they come into this one wanting the win.

Portland has been on the wrong end of some blowouts lately, in five of their last six games. Orlando is sneaky good this season and they will not hesitate to take advantage of a team on a slump. They have won two straight and three of four in this series and we see another comfortable win here on Sunday.

Miami has covered in only two of their last 10 games, and this team continues to be one of the worst bets in the NBA night after night. The Hawks have won three of four and they are playing well right now. We think they have a great chance to win here in what should be a close game.

We don’t get in the habit of taking NBA double-digit favorites, but we think it is justified in this situation. After the trade deadline, the Nets are sinking and will be lucky to make the play in once all is said and done for the regular season. This team is clearly looking towards next season. They have lost four straight, three by double digits, and two by 20+. In their last game, they allowed 142 to the Knicks. They have allowed 129 or more in three of their last four. That doesn’t bode well against what is, in our opinion, the best team in the league. This Boston team is a covering machine lately. This is one of the most poised, veteran clubs out there – not to mention one of the most talented – and they aren’t a team that is going to take many nights off or overlook an opponent. We think they bring their A Game here as the playoffs are quickly approaching. They are right on the heels of the Bucks for the No. 1 seed, so they know every game is important down the stretch. They have won the last three meetings by double digits (they have covered in six straight meetings), and they won by 40+ at the start of February against a stronger Nets team.  This one looks like blowout city to us.

This is a letdown spot for Philly after their big revenge win over the Heat last night. Now they are on a back-to-back and with their best player questionable. Even if Embiid does play, he will not likely be 100%. Since they won last night, we think they rest him again here and hope for the best. The Sixers have played four straight unders, and the under has hit in five consecutive meetings between these teams. We think this total is about five points too high.

The Bucks have been playing amazing basketball and have some high profile wins lately, but this looks like a game where they could have a letdown effort. They are on a back-to-back here and also have Philly on deck. Orlando is rested, healthy and a team on the rise. They have been money in this price range (16-9-1 ATS as a dog of 7.5 or more), and we think they bring their A Game tonight and they should be confident they can compete for the win against a tired team.

OKC is such a fun team to watch. They are great offensively and play little defense. Their games are often shootouts, and we see that being the case here tonight. We agree with the oddsmakers that this will be a competitive game, and we think both teams get their share of the points to send this one sailing over the total.

This sets up as a nice revenge spot for the Heat’s win Monday in Philly. That was a rare cover for them recently, which shows the oddsmakers have been continuously overrating them. Philly is 14-6 ATS as a small favorite this season, and they are clearly the better team in this matchup. Miami has been one of the worst ATS teams all season and they continue to get too much respect from the oddsmakers. Revenge is an overrated handicapping angle in the NBA UNLESS these teams played recently, and that is certainly the case here.