Sports Picks & Predictions

These teams played Friday, and Portland came out with a blowout victory. There are a lot of teams facing each other in consecutive games, and the team that lost the last time normally gives a better effort the next game. We think this one will be more competitive. The Blazers probably won’t come with as much intensity after the easy win, and the Warriors will probably come with much better effort and intensity.

During the Bubble restart of last NBA season, the Clippers were great at bouncing back after a loss or bad game, and that trend has followed here into this new season as they played well in the game after that Dallas loss. Now they come in off a loss again, and they face a Suns team that has been really good since the restart and the new season. But there’s a reason LA is favored here as they are the better team and probably much better when the teams are playing their A Games, which we think LA will bring tonight after a loss where they played well but the shots just didn’t drop.

The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Detroit. One of those losses was last time out as the Celtics had an off game and lost to Detroit in a low-scoring game. The Celtics have been one of the best ATS teams in the NBA for years, and they are easy to trust. Especially coming off a loss in a rematch against one of the lesser teams in the NBA. We think this is a great chance for a double-digit win by the road team.

This is a rematch from the first game of the season, which was not long ago, so revenge could be a factor here. The Knicks are improved this season. They beat Milwaukee recently in a blowout win. They have won two of three and they held tough with Toronto last time out until the fourth quarter. This team need to be more consistent, but we think this is too many points tonight. The Knicks are playing with more confidence this season, and we think they will be a live dog when getting massive points in certain spots.

The Blazers haven’t been dominant to start the season, but this team is much improved from last year. And we can’t forget this team made the West Finals two years ago. They are hungry and we think they are the much better team here in this matchup. They have had a super tough schedule do far, and this is arguably their easiest game of the season so far. The Warriors have won two straight against inferior competition. But we think this team still has a lot to work on. We think they will get better later in the season, but for right now are a team to fade while they work out their kinks.  

It’s hard to justify when a team lost by so many points like they did to Dallas, but this Clippers team is playing as good of basketball as any team in the NBA. They have had one of the toughest schedules in the NBA to start off the season, but they have won their games very comfortably. They have covered all their games except of course that Dallas loss. Utah is on a back-to-back here and they didn’t play well against the Suns last night. This team has covered only one game so far, and the Jazz are notorious for their slow starts. LA is playing with a chip on their shoulders and they look to prove all the doubters wrong that criticized them after last season’s flameout. We think they take care of business again tonight.

The Raptors are winless on the season at 0-3. However, this is a championship contender team that has been one of the best ATS teams in the league the last couple years and this looks like a Get Right game for them. The Raptors have started off the season with games against three straight playoff contenders, and two of those games have been on the road, not in their new home base. The Knicks are a better team this year but this squad still has a long way to go, and they should face up against a very motivated Toronto team tonight. This very much has the look of a double-digit blowout game. The Knicks are 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings away from the Garden and 2-8 ATS overall in the last 10 meetings.

The Bucks got their revenge over the Heat last night in a complete and utter blowout by almost 50 points. But now it’s time for the Heat to get some revenge from that horrible loss. The Bucks jumped out to a 20-point lead in the first quarter and were up by 30+ at halftime, and it was garbage time from there on out. But this NBA season is unique and we will see these types of back-to-backs often, and it is hard to beat a team two nights in a row, especially at their own place. The Heat have one of the NBA’s best coaches, and he should be able to make adjustments for his team to be more competitive. Milwaukee set an NBA record for made 3-pointers, and they isn’t going to happen two nights in a row. Miami is a proud team that was just in the NBA Finals, and we think they will bring their A Game here after that embarrassing result. The Bucks aren’t in midseason form right now as they just lost to the Knicks by 20. Jimmy Butler could conceivably be back here for Miami, so that would aid their chances for an outright win. The Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 visits to Miami.

We like to back a good team coming off a bad loss, and that is the case here with the Clippers tonight. They suffered one of the worst losses in franchise history last time out against the Mavs. They just didn’t come to play and it had to be embarrassing for the players. This team will come out well prepared tonight. They have had probably the toughest schedule in the league to start off the season and are at 2-1 against it, and they won’t overlook the Wolves after that effort against Dallas.

Both teams have had a rough start, but the Warriors are the better team and Detroit is coming in on a back-to-back. The Warriors have had a much tougher schedule to start the season. We think they will take advantage of this weaker opponent on a B2B and take care of business tonight with a comfortable win. Only one of these teams is a legit playoff contender, and that’s not the Pistons.

One of the best bets and the strongest trends in the NBA since we began handicapping almost 20 years ago is the Blazers ATS against the Lakers. They have covered 21 of the last 19 meetings in LA, and no matter the strength of the teams, they always bring their A Game when playing the Lakers. The Lakers are on a B2B, Anthony Davis is banged up, and this team is always overrated by the oddsmakers. We think the Blazers can win this one outright.

The Nets are coming in on a back-to-back and are being punished too much for the fact by the oddsmakers. They lost to Charlotte last night, and we think this could be the best team in the NBA and they aren’t going to lose many games this season, so we think they will bounce back nicely here. This is early in the season, so B2B’s don’t really matter that much, and we expect Brooklyn to bring some nice energy in a potential double-digit win.

2-0 team against an 0-2 team, but this line is simply too big. Detroit will come to play tonight to give themselves the best chance to avoid going 0-3. This isn’t a good team. But we are not convinced that the Hawks are good, either, as they have beat up on two mediocre teams to start the season. We had this line handicapped at 7.5, so we think there is some nice value here as we expect the Pistons to put up a fight and keep this one within double digits.

Another situation where these teams played the night before. And we think the better team (Suns), who lost last night, will play better and get the win. It’s telling that the odds have not changed much even though Sacramento won last night. It’s hard to beat a team twice in two nights, especially when that losing team is the better squad.

We are going to see some strange scheduling stuff in the NBA this season, and here we are. These teams played here yesterday. The Magic won, but we just don’t see that happening twice in a row on the Wizards home court. Washington is a team we are high on to start the season, and we don’t see them playing two bad games consecutively against the same team. And now we are getting points instead od laying them.

Morris is out. Kawhi has to be hurting after getting crushed in the head Christmas night by his own teammate, and he was laying in a bloody mess on the court. He had some stiches and will probably go here, but he can’t be feeling great. But mainly this is a revenge scenario from the playoffs. Dallas played a real lousy game last time out in a blowout loss to the Lakers, but and adding to the revenge against the Clips we think they come out and play with more motivation today.

Houston is missing six players for this game and traveled with nine for this matchup, one more than the minimum number under Covid protocols. James Harden will play, but he is probably the most unhappy player in the NBA right now with trade demands and this team is just filled with drama and distractions right now. All that is built into this inflated line. But we think the Blazers are much improved this season. And they are coming off a really embarrassing loss to Utah, so they will be focused here tonight in a game they can easily win by double digits.

Both teams had unexpected results in their first game. The Spurs aren’t a playoff team, in our eyes. Toronto is a championship contender. We had this line handicapped at Raps -5, so we think there is nice value here. After a blowout loss in their first game, a team with the pedigree of Toronto will no doubt come to play here as they don’t want to open the season 0-2. This is a long season, but no team with championship aspirations wants a poor start like that.

We went big on the Wizards in their first game at Philly and they lost but covered. The game was a lot closer than the final score indicated, and Washington led much of the way. We think this team is underrated by the oddsmakers to start the season, so that result was great for us to keep the value on this team. Westbrook is the perfect fit here, and this team has underrated young talent. We think they are motivated for a strong start to the season, and we think they bring their A Game tonight.

The Clippers sure came out Game 1 of the season and looked like they had a chip on their shoulder. We think that will continue here against the team that knocked them out of the postseason. The Clippers can come up with any excuse they want, but we just don’t think the Bubble was the right place for them mentally last season. While the depth for this team suffered in the offseason, they are still one of the best teams in the NBA and better than the Nuggets despite last season’s series result. This game just seems more important for the Clippers and we think they come to play tonight.

LeBron is hobbled but said he would likely play here. With or without him, we like the Mavs here to keep this one close with a chance for the outright win. As if they wouldn’t take this game seriously anyways against the defending champs, they lost their first game so they don’t want to fall to 0-2. We don’t think that prospect is as important to the Lakers, one of the teams that didn’t want the new NBA season to start in December. This team probably won’t be the No. 1 seed this season and they probably don’t need it. We don’t see them getting real serious for about 6-8 weeks. They are normally overvalued by the oddsmakers anyways, but we see them as a team to fade for sure until we see them consistently kicking it up into the midseason gear.

Brooklyn looked like the NBA’s best team on Opening Night and we expect big things from them this season. They seem to want to get off to a fast start. And we think they will bring their A Game tonight against a Celtics team that will miss Kemba Walker. Boston is still plenty good with the team they will bring to the court, and they showed that against the Bucks. We just don’t see them winning two straight against two better EC teams, and the Nets should be very motivated for a big game here.

We think this total is too high. The Warriors not only don’t look in synch offensively, but they don’t seem to have the players right now to light up the scoreboard in the way we are used to. We think this team will eventually be fine and we have then penciled into the postseason as a high seed, but we think it will be a process and we just don’t see them being that competitive here, especially with the Bucks losing last time out. We don’t see GSW having a breakout on offense here. The Bucks will get their points and the Warriors should play better offensively than Game 1, but we had this one handicapped at mid-220s so we think there’s some decent value here.

The Jazz are another team that starts slow almost every season. We don’t see why that won’t be the case again. Portland is a little under the radar this season. They made some nice offseason moves and are relatively healthy to enter the season. Remember, this is a team that reached the WCF two years ago, and they have one of their better teams in years this season. We had this line at Blazers -4, so we think there is some good value here. Utah is hard to trust early in the season until they show otherwise.

The Celtics open the season not in a great place after a disappointing season and now they lost Hayward in the offseason and Kemba Walker is injured. The Bucks flamed out in the postseason also, but they had an excuse with some off the court issues causing a big distraction. We think they are still one of the NBA title favorites and we think they will want to start off the season with a big win over a rival. They got better in the offseason and we just don’t see how the Celtics can match up tonight against what should be a very motivated Bucks team.

The Wizards are under the radar coming into this season. We think they are going to be pretty good and a solid ATS team to start the season. Russell Westbrook is a great addition to this team and he pairs with Beal extremely well. This team has some nice young talent, and Westbrook’s presence will help them develop and he will take a lot of pressure off Beal, who had a great season last year and should be even better with the pressure off him to carry the team this year. This team will be putting up some crazy numbers on offense and should be able to win a lot of shootouts. Watch out if they can play any defense. Philly got off to a slow start last season and we think that could be the case this season with a new coach and still a strange mix of players that has never figured the formula for success to match their talent.

Everyone is down on the Clippers. They did lose some depth but this team didn’t lose enough to warrant such a drop on confidence from the masses. This squad didn’t get to play together much during the season because of injuries and that lack of cohesion showed in the postseason, and the strange atmosphere of the Bubble didn’t help matters. In our minds the Clips are still the clear No. 2 squad in the west and a legit contender. The Lakers just finished their title run what seemed like yesterday and they will probably take some time to get into championship form. We expect a sluggish start from the champs this season. The Clippers seem to have more to prove here and more motivation tonight.

Everyone is down on the Clippers. They did lose some depth but this team didn’t lose enough to warrant such a drop on confidence from the masses. This squad didn’t get to play together much during the season because of injuries and that lack of cohesion showed in the postseason, and the strange atmosphere of the Bubble didn’t help matters. In our minds the Clips are still the clear No. 2 squad in the west and a legit contender. The Lakers just finished their title run what seemed like yesterday and they will probably take some time to get into championship form. We expect a sluggish start from the champs this season. The Clippers seem to have more to prove here and more motivation tonight.

4-Unit Play #711 Take LA Lakers/Miami UNDER (7:30 p.m. EST, Sunday Oct 11)

We think that both teams played a but above their heads in Game 5 and the total still almost went under. We think scoring will definitely be down in this Game 6, and this should be a defensive battle all the way through. It's telling that despite Game 5 going over that the bookies lowered this totals number, but we don't think they lowered it enough. We think this could be one of the most low scoring games of the series.

--Best of Luck, Doc's Sports

These teams had an extra day off from their normal schedule, and that should provide energy for both teams on the defensive end. Miami really has to step up the defense tonight if they want to have any chance of getting back in this series, and we think they will play well on the defensive end and possibly keep this game close. Three of the last four games in this series have gone under the posted total, and with the extra day off we think this one will go that way as well, as both teams have the motivation to play top-level defense tonight.

The Lakers sometimes need a wake up call, and they got it Sunday when they were pretty much blown out by the Heat in Game 3. They haven’t lost much in this postseason, but when they have they have bounced back strong in their next game. We see them playing much better on Tuesday, and the oddsmakers have adjusted this number and the Lakers are now more attractive on the spread. Miami is a plucky team and they have had a great postseason for the ages. But when it comes down to pure talent and superstar power, the Lakers have a huge edge. And if they play up to their potential, which they did not do in Game 3, there is no reason they should not win this one by double digits.

We hit the total on both games so far in the NBA Finals, and we think that after the first game jitters with the under that the scoring will continue to be fluid here in Game 3.  We stated that Miami would be more competitive in Game 2 and they were, and we can see that continue here in Game 3 so there will be no blowout like in Game 1 where Miami doesn’t score enough to help get over the total. The Lakers offense is working so well now and they are playing some of their best basketball of the season, and we don’t see the Heat having any solutions for them on the defensive end. We see the Lakers putting up a big point total for the third straight game in these NBA Finals and the Heat will show some nice heart and make sure they do the rest to get this total over the posted number.

We scored a big winner on the UNDER in Game 1, but we are going the other way for Game 2. That Game 1 total was close to going over at the end of the game despite a horrible offensive performance from the Heat. This team has been pretty much rock solid all playoffs, and even with some key injuries for Game 2 we think we will see a much more competitive performance from them on Friday. The Heat showed that they have no answer for the Lakers on defense. Los Angeles could have scored a lot more had they not took their feet off the gas pedal late in the game in an attempt to drain the clock. Lakers starters played limited minutes compared to a normal game because of the blowout. They should be fresh and primed on offense. LA has been really good on offense lately and this team is gelling and playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. We think they put up a big point total for Game 2, and the Heat should make up the difference to get this one over the posted number.

The oddsmakers have posted this total four or five points too high. The Heat have played four straight overs in their series against Boston and the Lakers went over in four of five against the Nuggets. That’s why the oddsmakers posted a high total here. But this is a whole new series, These teams had some rare time off after playing every other day pretty much for awhile, and that will take these offenses out of rhythm a bit, especially at the start of the game. And more time off for rest will give these players the energy to play strong defense. Also, since this series is for all the marbles, we think Game 1 will see these two teams feeling out each other a bit and we don’t see any crazy offensive explosions. The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these clubs.

Unlike the previous series for these two teams, the over has been the play here in this series, and four of the five games have gone over the posted total. The one that didn’t was only one point under. But the bookies have not adjusted this totals number much. These are two defensive teams, so that’s understandable. And the playoff normally focus on defense. But even with some lapses in scoring, these teams have been pretty good offensively.. They both shot well in Game 5, and Boston had their breakout game of the series on offense with 121 points in the win. We think they can match that effort here today as we think the momentum has switched sides, and this total looks about five points too low.

Unlike the previous series for these two teams, the over has been the play here in this series, and four of the five games have gone over the posted total. The one that didn’t was only one point under. But the bookies have not adjusted this totals number much. These are two defensive teams, so that’s understandable. And the playoff normally focus on defense. But even with some lapses in scoring, these teams have been pretty good offensively.. They both shot well in Game 5, and Boston had their breakout game of the series on offense with 121 points in the win. We think they can match that effort here today as we think the momentum has switched sides, and this total looks about five points too low.

The Nuggets have had a great run. They came back from big deficits against the Jazz and Clippers to win those series. But we think they don’t have another rally in them. Both of their series before this went to Game 7. This team has played a lot of basketball, and we think that this might be a real ugly game for them. The Lakers want to end this while the Celtics/Heat series is still going to give themselves some extra time to rest, and we expect them to go all out tonight while they have the Nuggets on the ropes. They don’t want Denver winning this one and getting confidence for another 3-1 comeback. We think they play lockdown defense and shut down a Denver offense that should be running on fumes here. We think this is a great chance for a double-digit Lakers win, and we are getting the best line of the series for the favorites.

We have not given up on Boston yet and think they have a good chance to extend this series to Game 7, where anything can happen in that situation. The Celtics didn’t play well in Game 4, but they were still in a position to win or at least force OT at the end of the game. This team seems to have the fortitude to dig deep for a must-win tonight, and they have one of the best coaches in the league that will be giving it his all as well. We see them playing a great game on both sides of the ball tonight to extend the series to Game 6.

Just like the Clippers series, the Nuggets are playing carefree and loose, while the Lakers have all the pressure on them. This series has looked pretty even to us for the most part, at least in the last two games. And the Nuggets could easily be up 2-1 in this series. The Lakers are always shaded by the oddsmakers and this Game 4 is a perfect example as by what we have seen on the court the Nugs should be catching around three points. Some good value on this line as we expect another close game.

Boston got right back into this series in Game 3 with a big win, and it’s easy to think they can keep the momentum going tonight. They had a rare three nights off because of the strange scheduling in the bubble, and as a result they got some much needed R and R. This definitely benefits the Celtics more since the Heat had them kind of on the ropes after that 2-0 lead but now Boston recaptured the momentum and they got some time to get Hayward some more rest, and he should be a major factor tonight in this likely win. Boston is the better defensive team, and with the extra rest we should see that unit flourish tonight. And their offense really woke up in Game 3 with 117 points, and we see that continuing tonight, especially with Hayward more fully in the mix. Miami is playing some very good basketball right now, but they have had an easy path and haven’t faced a lot of adversity. Boston is more battle tested, and ready for this crucial Game 4. And not to mention that Boston has been one of the best betting teams in the NBA for the last several years, and they normally exceed the expectations of the oddsmakers. We think that will be the case again tonight.

Just like in Game 2, we are going with the Nuggets here. Sometimes NBA hoops comes down to mental attitude. Every team in the league has ballers, but some have more talent than others. But the Nuggets are playing with house money and this team looks like they are just having fun. They are super confident and know that no lead or deficit is insurmountable. Just like the Clippers series, that makes them dangerous here and we expect another close game. Denver won’t be fazed, and we think they put forth their best effort tonight in this crucial Game 3.

Going to take a shot on the underdog here. Denver has been nothing but resilient in this playoffs, and they are playing loose with nothing to lose. That is a dangerous team. And this is a talented one, too. We had the Lakers last time out, and we think the Nuggets will bounce back well tonight. We just don’t see another blowout here. Denver is settled in and will play better tonight, and we are getting a better spread than Game 1.

Taking another shot at the Celtics here in Game 3. This is the most crucial game of a 7-Game series, and Boston is in a must-win situation here. They had a big blowup after blowing a big lead and losing Game 2, and we think that might be healthy for this team as they needed a wakeup call. If they lose tonight this series is essentially over for them, but if they win then they are right back in it. We think they bring their A Game tonight and think there’s a great chance they can win this one by 7+.

We are just not believers in the Nuggets. Kudos for beating the Clippers, but LA beat themselves more than Denver won the series. The Lakers have had extra time off here, and it will benefit them big time. The Lakers should send a card to the Clippers since they got a cakewalk to the Finals. LA will be locked in tonight and we expect a very strong defensive effort from the favorite while the Nuggets didn’t really get a chance to catch their breath and we have a great feeling that this will be a double-digit win by Los Angeles. We think this will be a low scoring game.

We are just not believers in the Nuggets. Kudos for beating the Clippers, but LA beat themselves more than Denver won the series. The Lakers have had extra time off here, and it will benefit them big time. The Lakers should send a card to the Clippers since they got a cakewalk to the Finals. LA will be locked in tonight and we expect a very strong defensive effort from the favorite while the Nuggets didn’t really get a chance to catch their breath and we have a great feeling that this will be a double-digit win by Los Angeles. We think this will be a low scoring game.

We are going the same way we went in Game 1 even though we missed the mark. We love Boston for this series, and we don’t see them going down 0-2. When Boston has lost recently it has been some last-minute stuff or OT, and that was the case in Game 1 once again. We expect the Celtics to really lock down on defense here in Game 2 to give themselves the best chance to wind up on top at the final buzzer. These are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA, and that should be on full force tonight. It’s telling that the bookies didn’t really adjust the numbers here for Game 2, and that tells us we are on the right track here.

We are going the same way we went in Game 1 even though we missed the mark. We love Boston for this series, and we don’t see them going down 0-2. When Boston has lost recently it has been some last-minute stuff or OT, and that was the case in Game 1 once again. We expect the Celtics to really lock down on defense here in Game 2 to give themselves the best chance to wind up on top at the final buzzer. These are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA, and that should be on full force tonight. It’s telling that the bookies didn’t really adjust the numbers here for Game 2, and that tells us we are on the right track here.

Maybe there is something to this Clippers curse after all. Denver has all the momentum in this series, and they have been playing with nothing to lose. They have been playing well, but the Clippers are in this situation more of their own doing with mental lapses and multiple cold shooting stretches. The Clippers have a ton of pressure here, and they haven’t shown they handle it well. We think this will be a close game and think the Clippers could very well lose outright.

These are two Top 10 defenses. We think that this series will be another defensive battle much like Boston/Toronto, Where six of seven games went under the posted total. Miami has had a long time off. They will probably be rusty on offense and have a lot of energy on defense. Boston has really dialed in the defense lately, and they have had an extra day off from the normal schedule, and that should bring some energy and tenacity on the defensive end. These teams should be feeling each other out here in Game 1 as well, and we just don’t see an offensive explosion here. The bookies seem afraid to post a total too much under 210 these days, but we had this one handicapped at 204, so we think there is some nice value here. And we like the Celtics for Game 1. Miami making the ECF as a No. 5 is a great story. But they beat a pretty weak Indiana team and then a Bucks team that didn’t have their head in the game. Boston is the better team and much more battle tested at this point.

These are two Top 10 defenses. We think that this series will be another defensive battle much like Boston/Toronto, Where six of seven games went under the posted total. Miami has had a long time off. They will probably be rusty on offense and have a lot of energy on defense. Boston has really dialed in the defense lately, and they have had an extra day off from the normal schedule, and that should bring some energy and tenacity on the defensive end. These teams should be feeling each other out here in Game 1 as well, and we just don’t see an offensive explosion here. The bookies seem afraid to post a total too much under 210 these days, but we had this one handicapped at 204, so we think there is some nice value here. And we like the Celtics for Game 1. Miami making the ECF as a No. 5 is a great story. But they beat a pretty weak Indiana team and then a Bucks team that didn’t have their head in the game. Boston is the better team and much more battle tested at this point.

The Clippers blew a big lead in Game 5 and ended up losing the game. They took their foot off the gas too early, and it was tough for this team to get back into the zone again. But you have to remember that the main core of this team hasn’t played together all that much this season and they are still learning. We think that lesson from the Game 5 loss will help them put together a more complete game here on Sunday. They have done very well during the restart after a loss and we think they will bounce back successfully as they have a bunch of times before in this spot.

We probably make plays on the Lakers less than any team in the NBA. They are a very public team, and their odds and normally shaded by the oddsmakers. But they do have value late in this series. The Rockets are a popular team also, and we expected this line to be around 8.5 with the way this series has gone the last couple games. The Lakers were shook out of their funk with the Game 1 loss, and they have rebounded nicely. They won and covered Games 2, 3 and 4, and the oddsmakers haven’t made a huge adjustment to this number. Houston is quite the dysfunctional team this season. They have looked disjointed since Game 1 and have some off court drama that is a distraction as well. We think the Lakers are in their heads big time, and the body language tells us this team doesn’t have much of a chance. We don’t think the Lakers take their foot off the gas tonight and expect them to roll in this likely final game of the series.

This is an easy call for Game 7 tonight. Boston is the better team, with the better coach. They will find a way to get the job done tonight. When Toronto has won in this series, they have needed some heroics. But when Boston has won, it has been by domination for the most part. They have had some mental lapses and should have put this one away awhile ago, but the cream will rise to the top tonight. Boston is on a 5-2 ATS run in this series, and they have been one of the most trustworthy ATS teams in the NBA for several years now. We think that there is a great chance they win this one by double digits tonight.

We thought Houston would make some noise in this series, but after that Game 1 win, the Lakers have been dominating. We see the same tonight, and this is more than a fair spread, something you rarely get when betting on the Lakers. Houston just looks disjointed in the Bubble and they can’t often get a team effort on offense as someone gets cold at the wrong time seemingly too much. We think the Lakers will play lock down defense in this one, and we think there’s a great possibility that this is a blowout, which would bode well for the under.

The Clippers haven’t played well the last couple games. We expect them to get it together tonight. They see the Lakers doing well now in their series against the Rockets, so there is some emphasis now to get this series over with pronto. In the fourth quarter the Clippers turned the switch last time out and we think that momentum will carry over to tonight, where we are getting the best line in the series with the Clippers.

Every game in this series has gone under by 10 points or more, yet the bookies have not made that big of an adjustment on the total. Just don’t see this game being a breakout game on offense. Probably because of no travel and extra rest, these playoffs have trended to the under, and the bookies have done a lousy job on adjustments. Not matter, since we have been able to take advantage. We think the Celtics will play lockdown defense here and close this series out tonight and get ready for the Heat in an unlikely ECF matchup.

Every game in this series has gone under by 10 points or more, yet the bookies have not made that big of an adjustment on the total. Just don’t see this game being a breakout game on offense. Probably because of no travel and extra rest, these playoffs have trended to the under, and the bookies have done a lousy job on adjustments. Not matter, since we have been able to take advantage. We think the Celtics will play lockdown defense here and close this series out tonight and get ready for the Heat in an unlikely ECF matchup.

The Lakers played great in Game 2, but this team just hasn’t shown the ability to consistently play like this in the Bubble. We think this will be a close game tonight, and the points look real attractive. We have stated it before, but we think the Lakers are a tad overrated this season and the bookies always shade the lines for their games. We think around 3 would be a more suitable line, so the extra couple points gives some nice value to what looks like a close game to us.

Toronto played a real strong game on Saturday, but we are still very confident in Boston for this series and we think the cream will rise to the top tonight. Boston has been mostly excellent for the most part of three games in this four-game series, and they should have won Game 3 also if not for that Toronto buzzer beater. This is the most crucial game in the series thus far and we see the Boston defense really stepping up here to shit the Raptors down.

Toronto played a real strong game on Saturday, but we are still very confident in Boston for this series and we think the cream will rise to the top tonight. Boston has been mostly excellent for the most part of three games in this four-game series, and they should have won Game 3 also if not for that Toronto buzzer beater. This is the most crucial game in the series thus far and we see the Boston defense really stepping up here to shit the Raptors down.

The oddsmakers finally adjusted this number, but it doesn’t seem like it was enough. The Bucks are cooked here in this series, and we think they will go out with a whimper today. Miami is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now in the Bubble. Giannis Antetokounmpo looks like he is playing through an injury, and the rest of the team has failed to step up. Milwaukee blew it in the playoff last season too, and it looks like we are going to see a repeat this year. It seems the Bucks have mentally left the building before this series.

After a grind-it out Game 7 win against Utah on Tuesday, it had to be demoralizing for the Nuggets to get spanked like they did in Game 1 Thursday against the Clippers. It showed us that Denver doesn’t have much of a chance in this series. And Denver probably knows that, too. Not sure what adjustments they can make here when the Clippers barely broke a sweat in Game 1 and the starters were able to hit the bench early. That is now three straight meetings the Clippers won by double digits. This is what LA has been working towards all season. They are completely healthy now and playing great team basketball. The bench is devastating when the starters need a break. They are much more fresh and rested than Denver. The Clippers have always had trouble in this round but this is by far the best squad in team history and we think they really want to make quick work of this series. With max effort, which we think they will provide, we think a double-digit win is a certainty.

Toronto needed a miracle buzzerbeater in Game 3 just to have a chance in this series now. Toronto failed to cover Game 3 and they are now 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings, all which took place in the Bubble. Two of those were double-digit wins. Toronto has a better regular-season record, but Boston is the better team in our opinion and they are playing some of their best basketball of the season at the right time. We think they will be determined here in Game 4 and will play one of their best games of the series after blowing a chance to put Toronto at the edge of elimination at the end of Game 3. Boston has been one of the best ATS teams for years, and that is a sign of great coaching. We expect them to shine on Saturday.

Really like Houston to make some noise in this series. They had a real tough series against the Thunder, but this is a veteran team and a hungry one. Plus, the Lakers are a tad bit overrated. And they haven’t often played to their potential in the Bubble. Not to mention they are often overrated by the oddsmakers. Houston has Westbrook back now, and he is getting back into the mix and should have a good series. And Harden won’t stay cold long. Houston is s veteran team, so we don’t see them having a hard time getting up for this matchup even though they just played in a real tough Game 7.

Denver gutted out a Game 7 win vs. Utah and they were literally inches from being sent home. They were already tired coming into this game (they managed only 80 points in Game 7) and they really laid it all on the line in that one. The Clippers dominated in their last two games in Dallas and they should have their full roster tonight as Pat Bev is expected to return. This team is rested and hungry. The Clips have won the last two meetings by double digits, and in this unique Bubble restart the Nugs got only one night off after their grueling Game 7 and we think they are in real trouble tonight in what should be a blowout by the favorite.

The public is betting the over while the NBA is trending to the under in the Bubble. So the bookies are afraid to post totals too low. That is why we are still seeing value in the under here after Games 1 and 2 went under by about 30 points combined. And they oddsmakers just made a minimal adjustment to this line. Seven of eight games from Boston have gone under the posted total and four of five for Toronto. Game 3 is crucial here for both teams. The Raptors are toast if they lose this one. And Boston wants to finish this series quick, especially with the Bucks facing some real trouble in their series against Miami. We think both defenses, two of the best in the NBA that are playing in top form now, will rise to the occasion once again.

The last two games have been defensive battles, and we see the same here tonight. There is really no precedent for play in the Bubble, but we saw last night for Utah/Denver Game 7 how things could go in a Game 7. These teams are tired. The Bubble is taking its toll with the protests and the games every other day. That game last night didn’t even crack 160. We don’t see this one being that low scoring, but we do think the defenses will lock down in this crucial game and that the offenses might be lagging as they haven’t been great lately and there’s a good chance they could take another step back tonight. The Thunder will have to rely on their defense to stay in the game, and we expect a close, low-scoring game in this one tonight.

Denver seemingly took all the momentum in this series, but you can throw all that out the window as the season comes down to one game here. Despite the season records, we think Utah is a tad bit better as a team. Remember, like always this team got off to a slow start but started playing better as the season went on. We think they will come out focused and determined tonight and will advance to play the Clippers in Round 2. We really think their defense will step up and play one of the best games of the series on the defensive end.

Throw the regular season results out the window in this series. We think in this current climate that Boston is the better team and we had them favored in our handicapping in this series and we think they have a great chance to go up 2-0 tonight. Boston is playing some of their best basketball of the season in the bubble and they have won and covered in four of the last five meetings between these teams. We think they have the upper hand again here as they match up well with Toronto. Boston is the more confident team now and we think it shows on the court today.

This series has a strong history for the under in recent meetings with six of the last eight meetings going under the posted total. The Heat are one of the better defensive clubs in the league, and they have been off for a week so they should have a lot of intensity to bring on the defensive end. We expect some great energy on that side of the ball as Miami wants to set the tone here in Game 1. The Bucks didn’t really get tested in their first series, but we think they will be here by the underrated Heat tonight. We think the bookies made a mistake on this Game 1 total.

We were on the Rockets yesterday because we thought they benefited more from the boycott than did the Thunder. We think the same way about the Mavs today. The Clippers were at the center of a lot of the activity during the boycott. Coach Doc Rivers was center stage, and the Clippers reportedly were one of the teams, along with the Lakers, that wanted to end the season. They had the Mavs on the ropes after their big 40+-point win, and they looked primed to end this series. But now Dallas had a chance to reset. Luka Doncic had extra time to rest his ankle. Dallas will be without Porzingis likely for the rest of this series. But they have become used to playing without him, and Doncic is the type of player, like Curry for Golden State, who elevates the play of the guys around him. We think this game will be similar to the Lakers game last night where a Damian Lillard-less Portland stayed within 10 and covered the number. The Lakers were the other team that reportedly wanted to end the season, and its stars were front and center during the boycott. But in this Clippers game we have the biggest spread of the series, and we think it’s an overreaction to that Game 5 result.

The extra days off for the boycott really helped the Rockets. OKC had them on the ropes with two straight wins, but the time off gave Houston a chance to reset and stifled the momentum for the Thunder. And now the Rockets get Russell Westbrook back for this Saturday game and they have the best chance to take control of this series. Westbrook has been lighting it up in practice and he should be a game changer for the rest of this series. OKC has been a nice story this year and they have come together to have a very nice season above expectations. But the Rockets are the much better team and we expect them to play a well-rounded game tonight in what should be a comfortable win.

This series is tied now after an incredible performance from Dallas in Game 4. But if you look at the Clippers results in The Bubble, they have suffered four losses since the restart, and every time they came back and played to their capabilities, covering in all those games. All but one win came by double digits. In Game 4 Dallas saw one of the best performances in playoff history by Luka Doncic. Not only was he going off, but some of the role players had excellent games as well. But even with the Mavs playing out of their minds, they still needed OT and an amazing buzzer-beater just to win the game on a night the Clippers just didn’t play well for most of the game. As recent history has show, LA knows how to follow up a lousy performance with a great one. Paul George has been the blame for a lot of the Clippers problems with his shooting slump. He will get out of this slump before too long. And it will probably be tonight. We expect to see an incredibly focused Clippers group tonight, and we think they will play to their potential. It’s doubtful that Doncic will have anywhere near the game he had last time out, and the role players are due for regression.

Before the series we thought the Blazers might make more noise in this series. But the Game 1 loss was a wakeup call for the Lakers, and we think they have all the momentum here in this series. The Bubble is an interesting place. In a normal NBA playoff series, the change in venue means a lot and can get the underdog back into the series. But there is no homecoming for the Blazers, and they are in a real tough spot here now. They are on the ropes. They started the playoffs early with the seeding games and then the play in game, and this team just looks tired and defeated. With no home-court to go back to, we think morale is low. The Lakers losing the first game was the best thing for them. That made them focus, and now we think they want to end this series ASAP as some of the other Western Conference teams are now in a dogfight in their series. We rarely bet on the Lakers as they are normally shaded by the oddsmakers and there is rarely value. But we think this line is more than fair tonight. We think this one has a great chance to be a double-digit win for the Lakers.

Both teams have been trending to the over. Ten of the last 11 games for Denver have gone over the posted total. Seven of the last nine games for Utah have gone over. Utah’s offense really played well last time out as they scored 124 in a blowout win. We expect the momentum from that offensive explosion to carry over into this one tonight. This is a crucial game for the Nuggets, and we expect them to be much more competitive, and we don’t see the Utah defense shutting them down twice in a row. They scored 124 in Game 2, just as Utah did in Game 3, and we think both teams will get their points here in this one tonight. One game already went to OT in this series, and this one looks to be close as well, so OT is always a possibility, which is great for over bettors like us. But we don’t think they will need the extra five minutes here as we think this one will get over 220 at the end of regulation.

We have to hold back on the bet size on this one because of the uncertain status of Dallas star Luka Doncic. He is the engine that makes this team run, and he is a game-time decision today. But if anyone saw Game 3, it would be a stretch to think he could be a factor even if he plays. It looks like that ankle was bothering him pretty badly. With or without Doncic, the Clippers are the call here. They have dominated the Mavs this season. They haven’t played their best in this series and are still in the driver’s seat. We think they want a good showing here and to be in a position to end this series early. The Mavs spirit may be broken after Game 3.

We are confident this series is not over, and although we think the Rockets will advance, we think the Thunder will make some noise, and this is a must win game for them tonight. The Rockets are a pretty inconsistent team and we just don’t see them playing in top form again here tonight, and the Thunder have been one of the safest ATS bets all season. This team doesn’t give up, and they will be confident going into this game and they have the belief they can win the series. We expect to see the best game we have seen thus far from them tonight in this series and expect them to score the straight up win.

Since the restart, the Clippers have bounce back well after every loss. In fact, they came back every time with a double-digit win. They are 8-1 ATS after getting beat by double digits. That is the sign of a very good team, and we think they will bounce back well here. That Game 2 win by Dallas was their first of the year against the Clippers. Los Angeles didn’t play well, and Dallas played a great game. But we expect a more well rounded effort tonight. The Clippers are in real trouble if they lose here, as Game 3 is one of the most crucial in a seven-game series. The Clippers don’t often play two bad games in a row, and Doc Rivers will make the needed adjustments for a big win tonight.

We think this line looks pretty fishy like the bookies are begging for Rockets money here. The Thunder got thrashed in Game 1, and yet the odds stayed the same for Game 2 when you would normally expect an adjustment. We like to be on the side of the bookies, and we think the Thunder are the clear play here today. They are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after a beatdown of double-digits, and we think they will bounce back well once again here and even this series up today. Houston is shorthanded without Westbrook and the Thunder have been a great bet all season as one of the best ATS teams in the NBA. Houston has been erratic this season; they can look great one game and lousy the next. They rely too much on certain players, and with Westbrook out, that hurts if a couple other guys go cold. The Thunder just seem like a steady team that plays strong team basketball and we think they will bounce back well once again today.

We think this is a pretty evenly matches series. Looks like Oladipo is good to go for the Pacers today, so that really helps them. The Pacers didn’t play well at all in Game 1, but we expect them to give a much better effort here today. These teams are very familiar with each other lately, and that will only help the Pacers today in the underdog role. We thought the bookies should have adjusted this line since the Pacers backs will be against the wall with a loss here, and we would lean to Indiana at 2, which we think is the more appropriate line. We expect a close game and we think the Pacers have a great shot at the win.

The Clippers need to play better if they want to cover this number as they were lucky to get the cover in Game 1. We think the Mavs come into this game angry and feel like they were wronged with KP getting ejected in Game 1. They should come in with a chip on their shoulders and play a more complete game in Game 2. After LAC covered in Game 1, they haven’t adjusted the line here for Game 2, and that tells us the bookies are looking for Clippers money tonight. We will go the other way on this one!

We think this will be one of the more competitive series in the NBA bubble. The Nuggets won Game 1. Utah didn’t play well, except for one guy, and we think the entire team will rise up and play better to avoid going down 0-2 in this series. We also expect the Jazz to lock down on defense. When they assert themselves, they can be as good of a defense as any team in the NBA, and we think this total has been overadjusted today. Utah has a great chance to win this one outright, but the points give us a little more wiggle room in case of a close game.

We love the way the Nets have played in the bubble. This team came in with no expectations but they beat the Bucks and Clippers and were one of the better betting teams in the bubble. This team has played like they have nothing to lose, and after getting embarrassed in Game 1, we expect a much better effort here. The Nets have always been a good bet when getting double digits as an underdog, and we think they play a much better game in Game 2 and keep this one within the double digit line.

In this strange year of 2020, it wouldn’t shock me to see a No. 8 beat a No. 1 in the bubble. Not just for one game; we are talking series here. There is no home-court advantage. We think the Lakers are a bit overrated. If the Clippers cared more about the regular season (health was an issue, also), they probably could have grabbed the No. 1 seed. Portland barely made the postseason, but they had health problems too and are in much better shape now and playing well. They also have played well against the Lakers for years. They are 46-22 ATS against them stretching back many years. We have followed that trend for years, too, and we think the Blazers are in a good position to compete for the win here in Game 1 in what we expect to be a close game.

These are two Top 10 defenses. We feel this will be a lower scoring series than some of the others we have seen. These players are fresh with some extra time off before tip off, and we think these teams will be tentative and take some time to figure each other out. This also looks like one of the more hotly contested series in the first round, and the defenses could really tighten up down the stretch if the game is close in the fourth quarter. We could see a scenario where almost every trip down the court is met with lock-down defense. The last two meetings both went under, with one team in both games scoring only 92 points. The playoffs are a different animal than the regular season, and defense is normally stronger. We could see that being the case here in this Game 1 matchup. We had this total handicapped a tad under 210, so we think there is great value here in the under!

The Clippers, more than almost any team in the league, didn’t care about the regular season. They had injuries, and they didn’t get too much time with a full roster to do their thing on the court. They didn’t care about wins and losses, but they wanted to be healthy and have chemistry by the time the postseason arrived. Well, now is that time. While they aren’t 100% heathy, they will start the postseason with a very strong roster, and we think they will raise their game to another level here in the postseason. For our money, this is the best team in the Western Conference. And we expect to see the best version of this team show up in the playoffs. Dallas is putting together something special, bur they are still a year or two and a couple players away from being a true championship contender. We think they are in deep in this series. They have lost four straight meetings, and they failed to cover in any of those games. The Clippers have great chemistry and talent, and we think they will want to make a statement here in Game 1.

This is a very unique situation with the play-in game. If Portland wins today, they will advance to play the Lakers in the first round. If they lose, these teams will square off again, with the winner advancing. The Blazers played better than the Grizzlies during the restart. But none of that matters now, as it just comes down to this weekend. The Blazers have been getting a lot of hype lately, but we think these teams are pretty even, so the points here are very attractive. These teams met in the first game of the restart, and Portland won in OT. Portland covered that game, but Memphis had covered five of the previous seven meetings. And remember, Portland almost didn’t even make it here as they needed a last-second missed shot by Brooklyn on Thursday or they would be on their way home now. Not only do we think these teams are evenly matched, but Memphis has the motivation in this one. One loss and they are out. They will have to bring their A Game, while the Blazers have a mulligan if they lose here. We think the Grizzlies have a great chance to win outright here, but we will take the points as we expect a close game regardless.

This is a meaningless game and a playoff tuneup for the role players on both teams. The LA Clippers stars might see a little playing time but not much. These teams kind of had a clear identity this season that we think we can apply to handicapping this meaningless game. The Clippers never really cared about the regular season. It was just to get them ready for the postseason. But OKC played hard and with determination and team basketball all the way through and wound up as one of the best ATS betting teams in the league this season. We think OKC is the team more likely to want to finish out this thing on a positive note, while the Clippers are most likely 100% focused on their matchup against Dallas on Monday.

Sometimes you have to go against the grain in NBA handicapping. And that is what we are doing here tonight. Portland is the ultimate public play here. They are locked in a big fight for the playoffs and they have been getting lots of positive press for Damian Lillard’s otherworldly performances on the court. However, the bookies know that zero public bettors will be taking a chance on Brooklyn here. They have inflated this line quite a bit as a result. First off, depending on the earlier games, the Blazers might not even need this game. They could know their fate by tip off already, and that wouldn’t give them much incentive to play key players, especially with the injury woes this team has faced this season. Brooklyn has shown they are no pushover. They have gone 5-2 in the Bubble when most thought they wouldn’t win a game. They beat the Clippers and Bucks. This team has seemed to relish in the role of spoiler, and they have no motivation to relax here in this game as they need to keep the momentum going into the postseason. We think they will keep things close if Portland plays at full strength, and they have a chance to win if Portland rests main players. There is also reverse line movement on this one as the number has dropped despite a big percentage of bettors on the favorite. That’s always a good sign for the underdog!

Both teams will be missing some key players. We really like the Clippers to bounce back here, however, after their loss last time out to Brooklyn, one of the worst rosters that was brought into the bubble during this NBA restart. This was the third loss during the restart for the Clips, and both times they rebounded for double-digit wins against their next opponent. We expect them to be motivated tonight. The Denver defense has given up 124 or more in their last four games (one OT contest). We just think a motivated Clippers club will be able to achieve their offensive goals here tonight in the bubble. The Clippers won by nearly 30 when these teams last met up. And we think they match up extremely well here tonight.

Pretty much year after year Boston is Top 10 in ATS results. That’s a sign of good coaching. And they are 40-26-4 ATS this season. They are a safe bet more times than not. And we think they are getting shorted by the oddsmakers again tonight. Memphis was a team a lot of people had high hopes for in the Bubble, but they have been a major disappointment up until now. They are 1-5 both SU and ATS. They haven’t been able to get any continuity going on offense. And Boston has scored 120+ in four of their last five games. We just don’t think the Grizzlies can keep up tonight on the scoreboard.

The Suns have been the big story of the restart, and this team is getting a lot of press lately. We think that has caused an inflated line here. The Thunder always find a way to keep the game close. They are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season. They are a little shorthanded and come in on a back-to-back, but we don’t think those factors warrant this big of a number. Like we stated, OKC always seems to find a way to get the job done. Not to mention that they have covered five in a row in this series.

The Grizzlies had lost the first four games of the restart, but we think they figured out some things recently, and their huge blowout win vs. OKC was big for this team last time out. Toronto is on the other side of the fence as they had won every game before getting blown out last time vs. Boston. We think this line is a product of how these teams have played so far over how they match up, and we see this one as being a very competitive game. Sharp bettors sapped some of the early value out of this one as it opened at 8, but we still think this number is a tad inflated.

Denver has won and covered in the last two meetings, and we think they make in three in a row today. Utah is 2-3 in the bubble and they have not been able to string together a full game of solid play too often. They are on a back-to-back here after losing to a Spurs team that isn’t in the same tier as these Nuggets. Denver was off, and we think that gives them a big edge here as these players still aren’t conditioned as they would normally be at this point of the season with all the time off. We thought this line was a bit short and think there is nice value here with the small favorite.

We had the Celtics as a slight favorite in this one and despite the records we think they are a bit better team than the Raptors. Boston has been one of the best betting teams in the league for the last few years. They have some of the best coaching in the league and a lot of talent. They normally get up for the big games, and we think they will be focused and take control here Friday night. Their offense exploded last time out with a huge performance, and we think that carries over in this marquee matchup.

Both teams have struggled in the restart. But Washington has been on a whole other level of struggle. This team actually lost ground in the standings to a team that wasn’t even invited to the bubble! We just feel that this is a “get right” game for New Orleans. They should dominate here with the superior talent on the court. Washington has lost all their games by 8 or more points in the restart, and we think they are in tough again against a Pelicans squad that is desperate for a win.

Both teams trend to the under this season. The Lakers have played four games in the restart, and have scored above 103 only once. Their offense is way behind their defense at this point of the restart. Six of their last seven games have gone under, and the oddsmakers have posted too high of a total for them once again. Houston is one of the better UNDER teams this season as the bookies always post an inflated number in their games. And that looks like the case tonight again.

Not many teams better than the Clippers from a betting perspective after a loss, and that is where we see them tonight. They are 21-6 ATS after a loss, and they were nipped by the Suns last time out. Both of these teams have been playing mediocre basketball, and both need a win. When both teams are motivated, the Clippers are the far and away better team. These are likely opponents in the postseason, and we think the better team will put their best foot forward tonight.

The Suns are 3-0 in the restart, with wins over the Clippers and Mavs, but we just think the Pacers are a much better ballclub here in this matchup and this is definitely a short line. The Pacers are 3-0 also against an easier schedule, but two of their three wins have been by double digits, and they are playing really good team basketball right now. Both teams will get their points, but Indiana’s defense will be the difference in this one against a short line.

The Celtics have only one win since the restart, and we think they will be motivated tonight as a result. The Nets had us scratching our head yesterday with one of the most surprising wins of the season as they beat the Bucks as one of the biggest underdogs of the season. We just think they will be content with that result, and they won’t give full effort as a result. This is already one of the most shorthanded teams in the restart. Boston will be shorthanded also, but this team has more talent and better coaching, and we think there’s a great chance for a double digit win.