Sports Picks & Predictions

The Hornets are playing better defense and they have cashed under tickets in four straight games. We don’t think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough. Their defense has been real good while their offense isn’t putting up the numbers they did at the start of the season. Indiana has gone under in seven of eight, and this is not a dynamic offensive team. We see a game where the defenses will tighten up in a close game in the fourth, and as long as no OT we should cash this comfortably.

Philly is 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five. But we just think this is too many points. The Sixers are dealing with a lot of injuries. But so is Denver as some of their key players are out as well. The Sixers have played a lot of close games during this losing streak but they were blown out and embarrassed last time out, losing to the Jazz by 35. This is a winnable game for them and we expect a much more focused effort and we think they will challenge for the win here.

The Clippers have good depth but a lot of that depth won’t see the floor tonight as this team is dealing with a variety of injuries. But it doesn’t really affect the spread with no big names. The Grizzlies were in a slump but they had that Get Right game against Houston and they looked really good in a 30+-point blowout. We think that momentum carries over to this game, and the Clippers have a real tough week of their schedule this week, and we don’t see it going well with a myriad of players sidelined.

The Warriors faced their first major road test against Brooklyn and dominated without really breaking a sweat. This seems like a team on a mission, and they are facing a banged up Cavs team that is on a back-to-back after putting up a good fight against that same Nets team last night but losing by 10. That was a conference game and now on a B2B and very thin roster we doubt they play better than they did last night and against a hotter team tonight.

These are two lousy teams. But they are a different level of bad. The Thunder are building something, while the Rockets seem hopeless right now and are unable to win a game. And despite some generous lines from the oddsmakers, they have not been covering, either. The Thunder aren’t too far removed from a four-game winning streak, and they have covered in five of their last seven. They are a much better defensive team than the Rockets, and we think that will be the difference.

The Knicks started off the season with some high scoring games, and the best defense from last season didn’t look up to snuff. But they have settled in lately, and their last four games (and six of seven) have gone under the posted total. This looks like another one that should be real low scoring. The Knicks have ramped up the defense during this under streak, and the Magic are one of the worst offensive teams in the league. And Orlando upset the Knicks earlier in the season so we think New York will lock down defensively tonight.

The Cavs have some injuries tonight, but the Nets are on a back-to-back after a beatdown by Golden State last night, and we don’t see them playing well enough to win by double digits. The Cavs are 10-5 ATS this season ad flying way under the radar. They are playing excellent team basketball and solid defense, and we think they will bring that same mentality to the floor regardless of who suits up tonight. The Nets are only 7-8 ATS this season.

The Lakers have been bad, but we think this is too many points. The Bucks aren’t exactly in mid season form. They are 6-8 ATS on the season. They have covered only three of their last 10. The Lakers need a win badly, and we think they will play hard against the Bucks. They probably have to feel a bit disrespected also since this is their biggest line as an underdog in a while. Plus, knowing that LeBron is coming back soon might give this team a jolt.

Charlotte started the season off as a hot over team but it has gone the other way lately as their last three games have gone under the posted total. The Hornets have been playing solid defense lately, and their offense has not been putting up big numbers like the start of the season. The Wizards have gone under in six straight. They have been playing as good of defense as anyone in the league lately, holding all of their last 5 opponents to 100 or less.

Both teams are hot, but we think the Warriors record and recent results can be taken with a grain of salt. This team has had one of the easiest schedules in the NBA and it has been very home heavy as well. This is only their third road games outside of the state of California. They are facing their toughest opponent of the season, on the road, and we think this spread is short tonight. Might the Warriors be as good as their record indicates? Possibly. They certainly have some talent on the court. But we will have to see how they perform consistently on the road where things are a lot tougher in the NBA. We think there’s a great chance Brooklyn wins this one by 7+.

These teams played on Friday and the Cavs won a close one. Both squads were on a back-to-back so that was a boon for Cleveland as they were at home. Not only is it tough to beat a team twice in a three-day span, but with no B2B situation we give the edge to the better team, and that’s Boston. We have used the Cavs a lot lately with success but this is a good spot to go against them as the Celtics get revenge tonight.

Bad spot here for the road team against the surging Clippers. LA is well rested with Friday off, while the Timberwolves are coming in on a back-to-back after playing the Lakers on Friday in a game they probably wanted more than this one. This is the first back-to-back of the season for Minnesota, and it’s a game we don’t see going well for them. These teams have already played twice and the Clippers dominated both matchups.

Both teams are coming in on a back-to-back, but Cleveland has a major edge here since they are at home. This team has been one of the best bets in the NBA this season and they are still flying way under the public betting radar. We think they are being undervalued again here on Saturday night, and this line has some nice value.

The Lakers have won two straight, both in OT, but in both games the opponent kind of beat themselves instead of the Lakers playing great. This is just not a good team right now. But this squad always gets the benefit of the doubt from the oddsmakers as they are the most popular betting team in the NBA every year based on their popularity. Especially after a couple wins. And they are always one of the worst ATS teams every year. We think they are overvalued again here tonight.

The Suns have a nice record so far, but we still believe they are overrated. Their path to the NBA Finals last season was paved in gold. And they have played a super home heavy schedule so far this season. The Lakers are not good to start this season. They got blown out at Portland. And they scored a slim road win at Sacramento. The Suns overall have been racking up wins against an easy schedule that has kept them in the overrated category in our eyes. But we think this is a very tough road contest for them and we expect a comfortable win from the home team.

Just going with the hot team here as the Cavs have been one of the best bets in the NBA this season. And they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10. They are very quietly getting the job done playing great team basketball, and without star players they are staying off the public radar. Cleveland has covered in five of the last six meetings between these clubs, and we think this line is more than fair tonight.

We really like the way Boston has been playing lately. They have showed us that they are probably a different team than last season, and a change of leadership has probably done this team well. They have won three of four and have covered four straight. This team has always gotten up for big games, and we feel that will be the case again on Friday night. The Celtics always seem to play well against the Bucks and they have covered in five of the last six meetings. We see them bringing their A Game here tonight.

In Thibs We Trust. Tom Thibodeau is one of the better coaches in the NBA, and on Wednesday he benched his starters for the entire fourth quarter to send a message. We anticipate they will respond here with an excellent performance against a Hornets team that is struggling after having lost five of their last six after a hot start to the season. The Knicks have been very good on the road this season as they are 5-1 away from MSG. We expect an inspired performance from the road team in this one.

This would have been a bigger play but the Heat went to OT last night against the Lakers and the odds moved after that. We still think the Clippers take care of business. After a slow start, the Clippers seem to be gelling well and they have won five straight. They have covered in four straight. They will face a tired Miami team that is 0-5 in their last five matchups against the Clippers.

Utah has been playing very well this season and is among the top teams in the league so far. But we don’t think this matchup will really move the needle for them and this is too many points for an out of conference game they won’t be very interested in. Indiana has been playing excellent defense lately, and as a result their last four games have all gone under the posted total. We think both teams will play strong defense here, and we expect a low total, making the points for the underdog all the more valuable.

Utah has been playing very well this season and is among the top teams in the league so far. But we don’t think this matchup will really move the needle for them and this is too many points for an out of conference game they won’t be very interested in. Indiana has been playing excellent defense lately, and as a result their last four games have all gone under the posted total. We think both teams will play strong defense here, and we expect a low total, making the points for the underdog all the more valuable.

These are the two worst defensive teams in the NBA for points allowed this season. The Hornets have the No. 2 offense in the NBA, and Memphis has the No. 11 offense. We think this one will be a barnburner on Wednesday night, and we expect a competitive game where both squads will get their points. Memphis has played in some lower scoring games lately, and that has caused the bookies to adjust this number. But six of the last eight meetings have gone over the total, and we expect this one to go that way as well.

The Knicks have been an over team for most of the start of the season as they have not played great defense and they have been saddled with some low totals. But three of their last four games have gone under with a couple solid defensive efforts. Milwaukee has been a big time under team so far. The under is 8-2 for them this season, and that is in part because of offensive inconsistency. We think the Knicks will amp up the defense against the NBA champs and we think this total is 4-5 points too high. This series has a strong history for the under in NY as 12 of the last 17 meetings have gone under the posted total.

Cleveland has been playing as well as any team in the NBA lately and they should be PK here if not a small favorite. We think this game is a coin flip, so getting this many points provides nice value. The Cavs have won four straight and covered in five straight games. At 8-3 ATS they have even been a slightly better bet than the Wizards (7-3 ATS). But the Wizards have had a home-heavy schedule thus far and they are only 2-2 ATS on the road. Cleveland is playing great team basketball right now, and we believe they have a great chance at the outright win here.

Two teams that have been bad ATS, but the Clippers are trending up and they have won four straight and covered in their last three games. This team is used to slow starts as evidenced by their playoff performance last season, but this team is starting to gel together and they have been playing well lately on both sides of the ball. Portland has dropped four of their last five games ATS. And they are 0-5 ATS in their last five visits to play the Clippers. 

Even though we aren’t sure who the Lakers will suit up tonight, this seems like a good situational spot to take them laying the small number. The Hornets are coming in on a back-to-back after a loss here to the Clippers last night. They really trailed off at the end of that game and looked tired. We think this will be a tough B2B for them. They are 0-4 SU and ATS the last four, and they lost the last three by 10+. We rarely take the Lakers but we think this is a good spot for them to get back on track and they are in desperate need of a win so they need to bring their A Game against a tired team.

Cleveland has covered four straight and they are 7-3 ATS on the season. This team is still not getting any respect from the oddsmakers, and they are playing great team basketball right now and staying off the public betting radar at the same time. The Knicks are off to a slow start. They have lost two of three and have covered in only one of their last four games. Their defense isn’t playing anywhere near as good as they did last season. We expect a close game here. The Cavs defense has been much better than the Knicks thus far.

The Clippers broke out of their offensive slump last time out against this same team, in this same arena, by scoring 126 points on 50 percent shooting from the field. We think this will be a harbinger of things to come for LA, and they should be able to rack up some points tonight even though Minnesota will likely make some adjustments. But the oddsmakers haven’t made a very big adjustment to this total even though the game on Wednesday went above 240. We think this will be a close game and we see both teams getting their points. The over is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Minnesota and 10-4 in the last 14 meetings overall.

The Thunder just beat the Lakers last week in OKC. Revenge is an overrated angle in NBA handicapping, and for sure the Lakers are trying to gel as a team and work on their issues rather than get revenge against the big bad Thunder. While OKC isn’t a good team, they have covered in three of their last four games, and they are playing beyond the oddsmakers expectations. The Lakers are always overvalued by the oddsmakers and they are 2-6 ATS on the season, and they will likely be one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA as they often are.

Utah is a Top 5 defensive team, and they have given up around 100 points per game this season. They are catching the Hawks on a back-to-back after a big game vs. Brooklyn on Wednesday. We just don’t see Atlanta doing much on offense here, and this total seems a tad high. The under is 4-0 in the Jazz last four road games and 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.

Philly is shorthanded tonight with some key players injured or ill, not to mention the Simmons situation, which continues to be a distraction. They are also coming in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights while the Pistons had the night off on Wednesday. Detroit has a great chance to win this outright. They are coming off two blowout losses, so there will be some urgency here. These teams played last week and the Pistons hung tough most of the game on the road, earned the cover, and should play better here at home.

1-Unit Play #520 Take Sacramento -5 over New Orleans (10 p.m. EST, Wednesday Nov 3)

These teams played recently and the Kings won on the road. Enough time has passed to not make this a revenge situation and we see Sacramento playing well here in front of the home crowd. They had a real tough road trip recently, and this is a good spot for them to get on the right track and get their first home win of the season against an overmatched opponent. 

3-Unit Play #515 Take LA Clippers/Minnesota UNDER 212.5 (8 p.m. EST, Wednesday Nov 3)

The Clippers are banged up to start the season. They have no chemistry whatsoever and anyone not named Paul George hasn’t been contributing. Both of these defenses have been playing pretty good but the offenses have been struggling. These teams are a combined 11-1 to the under this season and we don’t see either team breaking out on the offensive end tonight. 

3-Unit Play #511 Take Atlanta/Brooklyn OVER 220 (7:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday Nov 3)

Atlanta has given up a lot of points on defense lately, and we see that continuing here tonight against the Nets. Brooklyn is 7-0 for the under this season, but the oddsmakers have overadjusted this number. Brooklyn looked real good on offense last time out against Detroit, and we think that positive momentum will continue here. The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings. 

3-Unit Play #501 Take Portland -4.5 over Cleveland (7 p.m. EST, Wednesday Nov 3)

Portland hasn’t had a great start to the season and they are winless on the road, but this is a good spot for them to change that. They have had a very tough schedule to start the season. This is by far their easiest game of the season so far, and we think this line is more than fair. This is Cleveland’s first game home after a long road trip, and those first games back can be tricky for the home team. We see Portland winning by 7+ here. 

2-Unit Play #503 Take Boston -6.5 over Orlando (7 p.m. EST, Wednesday Nov 3)

Boston has had a very tough schedule and they have had some OT games and they are better than their record might indicate. They are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Bulls where they were in command most of the game. We think this is a good spot for them to bounce back and get on the winning track. Orlando is a bad team and they have covered only two games despite some generous lines from the oddsmakers. 

These teams met on Sunday, in the same building, and the Rockets lost by 10. Normally the oddsmakers would make the odds less attractive for the losing team in a revenge spot like this, but this is the Lakers we are talking about, and they always get shaded by the oddsmakers. The Rockets should bring their best effort tonight against a familiar foe, and we think they can keep this game close.

These teams are a combined 2-9-1 for the under so far this season, and this total looks too high as well. Utah is allowing only 98 PPG so far this season, and we don’t see the Kings putting up a big score on offense. They put up 99 points last time out against Dallas, and we feel we might see another similar performance here tonight. This total looks about 4-5 points too high to us.

The Bucks have had a slow start to the season. They are 3-4 and have lost three straight. This is a get right game for them against the sorry Pistons, and the line is right with them laying a fair number on the road. Milwaukee is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and they normally dominate the Pistons. Detroit is working a lot of things out with their rebuild right now, and Milwaukee should dominate here and hold the Pistons to a real low score.

There is no way the Clippers should be laying double digits to any team in the NBA right now. This team has looked all out of sorts to start the season, and Paul George has been pretty much the only positive on this team thus far. Could this be a get right game for the home team? Maybe. We just don’t see a blowout here and think the Clippers would be happy with a 6-8 point win.

Just love the way the Hornets are playing this season and this team is 5-2 ATS and coming off a home blowout of Portland. Sometimes it all boils down to confidence in the NBA, and the Hornets are playing with a lot of it right now. The Hornets have the No. 1 offense at this point in the NBA, and the Cavs have one of the worst. We don’t see their defense slowing down the Charlotte attack, and this spread seems short to us.

Just think that this is too many points for the Lakers to be laying over anyone at this point of the season. They have covered only two times this season, and one of those was an OT cover as they were giving points in San Antonio and barely covered in OT. Their only double digit win was last time out against Cleveland, where they won by 12 at home. They will get Houston’s best shot tonight, and Houston is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 visits to Staples Center.

The under is a combined 8-3 for these teams so far this season. This total is too high as well. Utah is allowing only 99 points per game this season. They haven’t faced any teams as good as Milwaukee, but we have some wiggle room for this inflated total. Both teams are coming in on back-to-backs, so there should be tired legs, and both teams have some injury issues tonight. Just don’t see this game being a track meet, and there is value on the under.

Sacramento have been road warriors this season at 3-0 ATS and SU. In fact, stretching back to last season they are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Mavs have been overrated by the oddsmakers and have covered only one game thus far this season. They are far from midseason form and are coming off an uninspired effort vs. Denver where they lost by 30+. Sacramento has a long history of success in this series as they are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Dallas and 21-6-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings overall.

Both teams played last night, but the Pacers are at home here and they have an easier B2B in our opinion. This is also a revenge spot for the home team as they were run out of the building on Wednesday. Toronto has been getting by on defense, but they didn’t play well in that regard on Friday and we don’t expect a better effort here on a back-to-back as energy will be in short supply.

Both teams played last night, but the Pacers are at home here and they have an easier B2B in our opinion. This is also a revenge spot for the home team as they were run out of the building on Wednesday. Toronto has been getting by on defense, but they didn’t play well in that regard on Friday and we don’t expect a better effort here on a back-to-back as energy will be in short supply.

We think that this sets up as a nice revenge spot for Boston. These teams played Wednesday, and the Celtics suffered a nine-point loss at home. We think revenge is an overrated handicapping aspect for the NBA, but it does come into play when the teams recently played each other. And that is the case here. And even better for Boston, they have had two says off while the Wizards played a back-to-back on Thursday, so this is their third game in four nights.

We like to back a good team after a bad (embarrassing) loss, and this is the case tonight for the Clippers, who played one of their worst games with the current core of players. This team has gotten off to a slow start, but they are better than this and they should give maximum effort tonight after a blowout vs. the Cavs. The Clippers normally bounce back well and they are 5-0 ATS after an ATS loss.

Charlotte is one of the best surprises of the new season, and this team certainly looks like a playoff team this season. They are 4-1 ATS on the year and they should be 5-0 ATS but they went to OT with Boston as an underdog and lost in the extra frame. The Hornets have some major offensive firepower this season and they stand at No. 1 in the league offensively. We see this one as another close game and we think the underdog has a chance for the outright win.

It’s a bit scary in today’s day and age to go under on a total this low, but if any game had the chance to finish under 200, this is it. These are two of the worst offenses in the league. The Magic have finished under 100 in three of their five games this season. Toronto has done the same in two of their five games. The Magic should have a very tough time reaching the century mark tonight. The Raptors have been playing lights out defense to start the season. Only one of their opponents have scored more than 100 points, and every team they have played is better offensively than the Magic. In the last 10 meetings, Orlando has toped 102 points only once, and they finished under 100 in seven of those matchups. We see them having a tough time reaching 100 tonight, and Toronto doesn’t have a dynamic enough offense to put up a big point total here.

Golden State has been playing pretty good defense to open the season, and that is a reason why they are 3-1 to the under so far this season. We think that they can contain Memphis and keep their offensive output to a respectable level. Sharp bettors knocked this total down several points from the opener. But we think there is still value here. And some heavy trends are in our corner: the under is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in the Bay Area.

Even though their records don’t show it, the Spurs have played as well as the Mavs to open the season. We are seeing progress already from San Antonio this season. They have had a very tough schedule to start off but they have been competitive, and we expect them to be competitive tonight in this regional rivalry. The Mavs wins have come against Houston and Toronto, so we don’t think they should be laying this many points this soon. The Mavs haven’t covered in their last five home games.

These teams are a combined 6-1 for the under thus far this season. Houston has been very bad offensively. Utah has been very good defensively. We don’t see any way that Houston will put up a big total on offense here, and this game has a good chance for a blowout. The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Houston and 4-1 in the last five meetings overall. Those trends are sustainable.

1-Unit Play #548 Take LA Clippers -8 over Cleveland (10:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday Oct 27)

This Clippers team has been inconsistent to start off with but we see more games like the blowout against Portland than the rout vs. Memphis in their future. They are on a bit of high alert after losing their first two games, and this season it is all about the regular season and getting a good seed with the hopes of Kawhi returning at some point for a playoff run. They should be able to get a double-digit win against an overmatched opponent that is fat and happy after two consecutive wins. 

2-Unit Play #540 Take Oklahoma City +6 over LA Lakers (8 p.m. EST, Wednesday Oct 27)

It’s early in the season so back-to-backs normally don’t matter that much. It shouldn’t be much of an issue tonight for OKC, who is young and is at home for both ends of the B2B. For the Lakers, however, this team is old. They are already one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA every season as the oddsmakers shade their lines on a regular basis. But this team is also old and they aren’t built for a rugged schedule. They played OT last night and this will be their third game in four nights. And the Thunder will be gunning for them as every team does every time they play the Lakers. 

4-Unit Play #533 Take Indiana -1 over Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday Oct 27)

We love the Pacers with this short line on Wednesday. Some books even have the Pacers getting a point. The Pacers are 1-3 but they have had a real tough schedule to start off the season. They have looked much better at 1-3 than the Raptors at 1-3. Toronto caught Boston on an off night, but otherwise they have looked horrible and their offense is completely inept to start the season, averaging only round 100 PPG. We had this line at Pacers -4.5, so we love the value here tonight. 

2-Unit Play #538 Take Boston -4.5 over Washington (7:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday Oct 27)

After a slow start to the season, the Celtics have won and covered their last two games. This team enters the season underrated because of some poor results last season, especially at the betting window, but this team is very talented on the court and they have been one of the best betting teams for years. The Wizards have had a light schedule thus far, but we don’t think they are as good as they were last season. We think this line is short and there is value in the favorite. 

2-Unit Play #529 Take Charlotte/Orlando OVER 220 (7 p.m. EST, Wednesday Oct 27)

Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the league and they average under 100 per game. But we think they can put up some points tonight. This line tells us this will be a somewhat close game. But we just don’t see the Magic shutting down the Hornets offense, which is averaging 120+ per game. The over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Orlando. These teams are a combined 6-2 to the over thus far. 

The Lakers have been playing awful defense to open the season and are close to last in the league in that department. They have given up an average of 118 per game thus far. The offense has played pretty well, but it has been the defense that has been the problem. We think San Antonio will get their points tonight in what should be a close game, and we think both teams can get above 110 here. Both teams are trending to the over to start the season, and the over is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 home games.

It’s still early in the season, but both of these teams are allowing only around 95 points on defense. Small sample size, but it’s likely these two will be in the Top 10 when the season is over. And the Pistons have been horrible offensively as they haven’t scored more than 88 points in their two games this season. It won’t get any easier against an Atlanta team that is very athletic on the defensive end of the court. Looks like this total is about 6+ points too high.

We liked what we saw from the Clippers in their season opener, a loss at GSW. But they played well and had a chance to win at the end. We think this is a probable Top 4 seed in the West even without Kawhi. This is a very talented team. And they are a bit underrated right now. They don’t want to start off the season 0-2 and they are solidly the better team in this matchup, so we expect them to take care of business in the home opener tonight.

We always state that revenge is an overrated handicapping factor in the NBA. However, it does come into play when the teams have recently played each other, and that is the case here as these teams played Wednesday in their season opener, a six-point Pistons win. Detroit hung in there all game and barely covered, and we think this will be a close game again. This is the Pistons second game of the season, while the Bulls come in on a back-to-back.

Miami scored 137 in their opener against Milwaukee, so who knows what kind of gaudy number they will put up tonight against Indiana, who has allowed 129 points per game thus far. The Pacers are averaging 128 on offense. They probably won’t get near that tonight because the Heat are a solid defensive team, but we can see both teams getting over 110 and this one should easily go over the total.  

Spoiler alert! We will be betting Boston a lot this season. This team has been one of the most dependable betting teams in the NBA for many years before taking a step back last season in what was a very strange season for them. But they reshuffled the administration decks and we expect a much stronger effort from them this season. Toronto really looked bad in their first game and they managed only 83 points against Washington. They face a much stronger defense tonight.

The Knicks weren’t their usually dominant defensive selves in the opener against Boston. But there isn’t much doubt that this team will be a Top 5 defense by the end of the season, and most likely No. 1. We expect a much better effort on that side of the ball here. Orlando is probably a strong defensive team this season. And they better use that defense, because we expect their offense to be among the worst in the league. And they failed to reach the century mark in their opener and probably won’t here, either.

Washington struggled on offense in the first game of the season, scoring only 98 against Toronto. They should have a much better time tonight on the offensive end. This team showed they can put up some high scores in the preseason, and the pace here should be fluid. Indiana showed in Game 1 they can score and their defense is suspect. The over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in the nation’s capital.

The Warriors were very impressive on Opening Night as they beat the Lakers handily on the road, and now they face the other NBA title contender from the city of Los Angeles, and this time in their home opener. The Clippers have had their number lately, but we expect this one to go the other way. Kawhi Leonard is out, of course, until March at the earliest. So they will have to make due without him, and it might take some time for this team to get on the same page. Their depth will take a hit tonight as Batum and Ibaka are out tonight, as well as some role players. This game is a divisional and regional rivalry, and the crowd should be pumped tonight. We just see the Warriors winning this one comfortably as we see them being really good this year and they have a more stable team right now while LAC is a work in progress with rotations and roster and such.

The Celtics have a new coach and we expect he will bring a new attitude to this team, who should have a much better season with some reshuffling of the front office and coaching staff. This team has all the talent to be one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and the Knicks are already there as they were by far the best defensive team last year. We expect that defensive intensity to continue this season, and in this rivalry opening game we expect both teams to give it all on the defensive side of the ball against a total that looks a few points too high.

These are going to be two of the better offensive teams in the NBA and two teams that are going to be hit or miss defensively. We think they will both miss tonight as we see a fast pace here and a high-scoring game for both teams. The last time these teams met, the score was over 260, and the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Charlotte.

We see the Bulls as being much improved this season, and the Pistons are still a major work in progress. Chicago is now on a different tier in the Eastern Conference and they are a playoff team in our eyes. We think this opening line is short as we had this one handicapped at 7.5, so getting some value on the other side of the NBA key number of 7 shows us the oddsmakers are a bit behind on this team. We see the Bulls getting a comfortable win tonight.

Much has been made about Kyrie Irving and his vaccine status. But this Nets team is probably still the best in the East without him as long as they stay healthy. They should be extra motivated in this one because of the revenge factor from the playoffs last season and also because they will see the Bucks getting their rings and that will provide extra incentive that the Bucks won’t have on the court. We think the wrong team is favored here.

10 Unit Play. Take #511 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (9:05p.m., Tuesday, July 19 ABC) Just do not believe Phoenix will go this entire series without winning (or at least covering) one road game. Phoenix could not stop Milwaukee at all during the second and third quarters on Saturday and still had the ball with a chance to win it late in that game. Phoenix is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on Tuesday. Despite losing the last three games, the Sunday are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games between Phoenix and Milwaukee.

10 Unit Play. Take #510 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (9:10p.m., Saturday, July 17 ABC) Homecourt has been the play in all 4 games thus far and look for that to continue on Saturday night in the desert. Role players tend to play better at home and expect the Suns to bounce back in a big way on Saturday. Phoenix gave away the game on Wednesday and I see them jumping out early and holding the lead tonight. Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. Phoenix is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Milwaukee.

3 Unit Play. Take #507 Phoenix over Milwaukee (9p.m., Wednesday, July 14 ABC) The Suns had an off-shooting night and game 3 quickly got out of hand. But expect them to bounce back in a big way especially Devon Booker, who sat the entire fourth quarter of game 3. The Suns have won Game 4 in each of the 3 previous rounds, and I feel they will take this game down to the wire with a good chance to win straight-up. Phoenix is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games.

10 Unit Play. Take #508 Under in Phoenix @ Milwaukee (9p.m., Wednesday, July 14 ABC) All three games have been blowouts and that does not bode well for the over to hit. Surprised this total is in the 220s and thus we will play the under on Wednesday. The Bucks have played under the posted total in 7 over their last 11 home games (1 push). The Suns have gone under the posted total in 4 of their last 5 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.

10 Unit Play. Take #505 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (8:05p.m., Sunday, July 11 ABC) We have used the Suns in both games thus far and won easily. Things will be different in Milwaukee, but I just do not feel the Bucks should be favored by this many points. Milwaukee is still struggling from the arc, and you just cannot win games in this day and age without strong three-point shooting. Phoenix is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Suns are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games against the Bucks.

10 Unit Play. Take #504 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (9:05p.m., Thursday, July 8 ESPN) The Suns dominated Game 1 of the NBA Finals and one never got the impression in that game that Milwaukee was going to cover the spread let alone win the game. The Bucks just have not been shooting it well from the arc on a consistent basis and for them to beat Phoenix they must make shots from the three-point line. Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against Phoenix in the Valley of the Sun. Phoenix is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

This is a strange NBA Finals for sure. Milwaukee belongs here, but not sure about the Suns. Phoenix was a team that we thought would flame out in the postseason after a brilliant regular season. They were lacking playoff experience. Teams need to take their lumps with some postseason heartbreak to eventually get to this point. But here we are. The Suns were benefited by a bunch of injuries to key players in the Western Conference Playoffs. They had one of the easier paths to the championship we can remember. But they did earn their postseason experience. They have gotten here by being the healthiest team in the playoffs. They gained a lot of confidence in the postseason, and we think that will be on display here.

The last game was high scoring and the Bucks did what they wanted offensively. But if Atlanta puts together another performance like that on the defensive end, they will be going home after this game. This is an underrated defensive team, and we think they step up and put it all on the line here tonight. Most of the games in this series have gone well under the posted number, and we think both teams will lock down on the defensive end as this is the biggest game of the series to date for both teams.

We have some major injuries on both sides here but the Bucks have the more complete roster, and the more experienced one. We think they will take the Next Man Up strategy and run with it here to a comfortable win. Even if Young plays for the Hawks, we just don’t see him being effective as he will be rushed back too soon. We have seen it time and time again where they rush a player back and he hinders the team more than he helps. Regardless, we think the Bucks will circle the wagons here and take the win and move one step closer to the Finals.

The Clippers got hot in Game 5 and they were able to score 116. We don’t see that happening again tonight, and we think this will be a low scoring game with both teams barely getting over the century mark. These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. This is a must win for both teams, and we think they will dig in defensively. The oddsmakers have adjusted the total upwards from Game 5, but we think they should have gone the other way. We will take advantage of their error tonight.

The last two games have gone significantly under the posted number. This one was adjusted because of Young’s status. And the line will move whether he plays or not. We like the under regardless. These teams have been playing well defensively, and the playoffs have been trending to the under. Just not sure how the Hawks will score their fair share with Young out or hobbled. The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams, and we expect another low scoring game here.  

Game 1 of this series went over, but the rest of the games have been fewer points than the last. We are pretty sure they hit the bottom of the barrel with Game 4 as 164 total points were scored. The oddsmakers adjusted a few points here, but it’s not enough. The Clippers are one of the most overworked teams in postseason history as they have played every other day all month and had some incredibly tough games along the way. They just looked exhausted in several spots in this series, especially Game 4 when they had tons of chances to take the lead but couldn’t. There’s a great chance both teams will shoot much better than they did in the last game, but we just don’t see either team breaking out on offense. This has possibly been one of the most physical series of the postseason, and the Suns are probably fatigued as well. These are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA, and we think that will be on display here again in Game 5.

The NBA playoffs has been grueling and the offense have been struggling. We have seen a big time trend to unders, and oddsmakers are not adjusting these totals enough downward. We think this one is too high as well. We think Atlanta might struggle to shoot the ball here again in Game 3! We had this one handicapped at 219, so we like the value here.

The Bucks were the No. 1 offensive team in the regular season, but their offense hasn’t played well in the postseason. The result has been a 7-4-1 under run in the playoffs. The Hawks have been trending to the under as well, with a 9-4 mark in the postseason. Game 1 went over, but just barely. We think the Hawks could fall flat offensively in this one as Milwaukee amps up the defense in what has basically turned into a must win game. Looking back on the Hawks playoff results, they beat the Knicks in Game 1 in Round 1 then struggled in Game 2 with only 92 points on offense. After winning Game 1 in Philly, they also struggled in Game 2, scoring 26 fewer points than they did in that win. The under is 7-0 in the last seven when the Bucks are coming off a loss. And it is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams, with Game 1 being the only over in that stretch.

Chris Paul should be back here and controlling the offense. He doesn’t move the ball up the court quickly and he sets up the offense more deliberately. This is the most important game of the season for both teams. If the Clippers lose, they are done. If Phoenix loses, then the Clippers are firmly back in this one. We expect both defenses to be at their best, and these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The last game was very low scoring and went way under the total, but the oddsmakers didn’t adjust the number enough. The under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in LA.

We think this line is too big, bottom line. The Bucks have always disappointed in the postseason with the current core. We don’t think they should be this big of a favorite. The Hawks are playing their best basketball of this season here in the playoffs, and it sure looks like this team is built for the postseason. They were one of the most impressive teams down the stretch of the regular season, and they haven’t missed a beat here when the games have meant more. We expect a close game here and all the pressure is on the home team.

The Clippers looked exhausted for Game 1 and they still had a chance to cover on the last possession. They had a super quick turnaround from their Game 7 against Utah until Game 1 at Phoenix. Now they have had a little more rest, and this is basically almost a must win for them tonight as they don’t want to go down 2-0 AGAIN in a series and have that hole to climb out of. We think they will do a better job of containing Booker and that this will be a close game where the underdog has a chance for the outright win.

The Suns had too much time off here. We think that, and the fact that Chris Paul is out for this game with Covid, has thwarted the Suns momentum. The Clippers have all the momentum here and are coming off one of the best second-half performances in playoff history. This team is really clicking on all cylinders, and they have shown they can play at an elite level even with Kawhi out of the lineup. Plus, they have some hope for Kawhi to be back at some point as he was seen at Game 6 against Utah without a brace and walking without a limp. That has led some to speculate that he could be back at some point in this series. These Clippers are more battle tested than the Suns in this postseason as Phoenix had a very easy path with the injured Lakers and the hobbled Nuggets. The Clippers had a tougher path and they have been playing better with each passing game after the first couple games in Dallas. They are getting contributions from throughout the roster, and Paul George has stepped up into the Top Dog role with Kawhi out. We just see the Suns having some problems getting into the flow of the game without Paul and with a week off from their last game. The Clippers won and covered in two of three meetings this season, and longer term they have covered in 14 of the last 19 meetings. We think they have a great chance to win outright here.

Just think home court makes all the difference here and the stars will shine on Saturday in this elimination Game 7. The NBA is all about the stars, and the Nets will have two on the court and the Bucks with one. And with Brooklyn being at home we think the crowd will drive them to a win here.

Nothing ever comes easy for the Clippers. Almost all their playoff series go to seven games. They have never been to the conference finals in franchise history. In Game 5 Paul George and the role players stepped up while the Jazz went cold in the second half, and Utah was still in a position to win in the last couple minutes. Just don’t see the Clippers replicating that performance and we think the Jazz will pull away in this one in the fourth quarter.

We have been pretty heavy on the Hawks in this series with solid results, but we think it’s time to go the other way here. This looks like a seven-game series to us. And we think the Sixers will take care of business tonight. We expect them to lock down on defense, and we don’t see them blowing a big lead like they did in Game 5. Even experienced teams evolve, and the Sixers learned a big lesson last time out as they took their foot off the gas after accumulating a big lead. Won’t happen again as the Sixers win this one comfortably.  

Not one of the five games in this series went over the posted total. However, there has been a massive swing in the totals line in this series. This is the lowest total for the series so far. This one is almost 20 points less than the Game 1 total! We think now there is value on the over. Harden is back and he had one sloppy game under his belt but he should play better in this game. These are the Top 2 offensive teams in the NBA this season. This is going to be a hard-fought battle from both sides and we think both teams will get their points here against an overadjusted total.

It was announced this AM that Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. This is a major blow to the Clippers as they had seized all the momentum in this series and were looking in good shape to possibly steal a rare road win in Utah tonight. But we think they still have a chance. Paul George has broken out of his slump, and if he plays hero ball tonight, he can definitely have the Clips in a position to win this one. LA has its deepest team in franchise history, and they have experience playing without Kawhi. Just don’t see the Clips getting blown out here.

The Hawks were one of the best teams in the NBA down the stretch, and they are being underrated by the oddsmakers once again here. Not many expected them to be in this series, but here we are with things tied up and this is now a three-game series and the Hawks have a real chance to make the conference finals. Philly always seems to disappoint in the postseason, and we think the Hawks will give them all they can handle tonight.

Great momentum for Milwaukee heading into Game 5 here with the series tied up. The Nets will likely be without two of their Big 3, and that is a problem with the way the Bucks have played the last two games of this series. They have all the momentum here, and the Nets have to figure out something quickly if they expect to win this one tonight. We don’t see it happening, and we think the Bucks go for the jugular this evening. Yes, the Nets have experience with playing without members of the Big 3 as they have done all season. And they have some role players that have the ability to step up. But we just don’t see where the points are going to come from for the Nets here tonight. They are really struggling offensively and have failed to reach the century mark in the last two games. The Bucks have the capability to score here, and we just don’t see the Nets being able to match that. Milwaukee has a strong betting history here in Brooklyn as they are 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings here. This Bucks team gets a mulligan from us for last season in the Bubble as they had some off-court issues going on, and a win tonight and putting the Nets on the verge of elimination would go a long way to put that failure in the rearview mirror.

We loved what we saw from the Clippers in Game 3, and we think that positive momentum will carry over here in Game 4. The Clippers have been in this situation before in a must-win game, and they have had success in this situation already in the playoffs. In Game 3 the stars for LA did what they were supposed to do, and the role players stepped up big time. Mitchell for Utah is banged up for this game. He might not be able to perform at his best. Utah benefitted from some great shooting in Games 1 and 2. They have cooled off, however, and that kind of shooting is unsustainable likely throughout the series. Also, the Clippers have been great in the favorite role as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. Utah hasn’t done great as an underdog as they are 0-5 ATS in their last five in this situation. This has the look of a series that could possibly go the distance, and we see the Clippers evening things up tonight with a comfortable win.

If Denver was going to make a big stand in this series, Game 3 was the place to do it. But they didn’t. At all. They got blown out. Again. Now the Nuggets are toast. And they know it. It’s virtually impossible to come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA Playoffs. And Phoenix is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now, and that’s saying a lot since they had a great regular season. But not only are they playing great, but they match up extremely well with Denver and this series looks like a total mismatch. Denver showed a lot of heart in their postseason comebacks last season, but this is a different season, and they just matched up with the wrong team in the second round.

The Bucks haven’t really played a good game in this series yet they are still in it, especially with a win here on Sunday. If they lose, they are on the brink of elimination with the series headed back to Brooklyn. We think they will go all out here and could possibly play their best game of the series. All the games in this series have gone under the posted number, and Game 3 went under by a lot as the total reached only 169. This game will probably be higher scoring with two of the best offenses in the league, but we think the oddsmakers should have made a much larger adjustment on the total.

The Bucks haven’t really played a good game in this series yet they are still in it, especially with a win here on Sunday. If they lose, they are on the brink of elimination with the series headed back to Brooklyn. We think they will go all out here and could possibly play their best game of the series. All the games in this series have gone under the posted number, and Game 3 went under by a lot as the total reached only 169. This game will probably be higher scoring with two of the best offenses in the league, but we think the oddsmakers should have made a much larger adjustment on the total.