Sports Picks & Predictions

We think the Celtics are underrated in this series and we think they have a great chance to pull off the series win. We do think this series will go far. We saw Golden State dominate the postseason so far, and that is why we have this steep series line here, but we think the Warriors had a pretty easy path. Memphis is a young team that is still learning playoff basketball and Dallas still needs some pieces to be a championship contender. The Nuggets were a pushover. But Boston has had a much tougher path. They swept a Nets team that was one of the title favorites. They beat the defending champs in the next round and then the No. 1 seed Miami Heat in seven games, winning Game 7 on the road no less. They are more battle tested. And while we have a ton of respect for Golden State and what they have done, they aren’t as hungry as the Celtics and this isn’t the best team they have had during their championship runs. The Celtics are coming off a couple grueling series, but they have had three days off here, which will be plenty of rest. We think Golden State has been off too long for this and they should be a little rusty. Boston always gets up for this opponent and they have covered eight of the last nine meetings here, a trend that stretches back years since these teams don’t play often. Boston has lost the last two Game 1s, which put them in a hole in each series early. We think they bring their A Game here to get the upper hand and steal home court advantage. Boston was a Top 5 ATS team this season and often underestimated by the oddsmakers. We think that is the case here for Game 1 again, and we think the Celtics have a great chance for the outright win.

Miami is getting healthy again and this is too many points as this is the biggest spread in the series so far. We think this will be a very competitive game because the Heat have some players back and if they win they know they will be favored in Game 7 at home. Miami has covered in 11 of the last 15 meetings here in Boston.

Just when one team looks bad one game in these NBA Playoffs, they turn around and look dominant the next game, and point spread have not even come into play that much here in the postseason. This series has the look of one that can go all the way, and the next page in that script is for the Celtics to deliver a dominating performance tonight in front of the home fans.

Both teams have won a blowout game in this series. Game 1 was a free for all where there wasn’t much defense played in the first half and both teams were hot shooting. Game 2 saw lots of easy baskets in garbage time in another blowout. But this is such an important game in this series that we expect both teams to get serious about defense here. It’s very telling after two high-scoring games that the bookies haven’t made a major adjustment to this number. We think the books are begging the public to jump on the over here, but we will side with the books and sharp money here with a strong position on the under.

The Mavs have shown themselves to be very resilient in these playoffs. We don’t take much from their Game 1 performance. Just like Boston, they can bounce back here and if they win then they have the upper hand and home court advantage in this series. They will no doubt shoot a lot better than they did in Game 1. We expect a close, high scoring game here and we still think this will be a good series despite the Game 1 result.

We will give Boston a mulligan for their Game 1 performance. They didn’t come to play, and two starters being out did not help. Smart should be back tonight, and he will help on both ends of the court. This team is well coached and very talented. And they will be able to make the necessary adjustments, especially on the defensive end. We think they have a great chance to win outright here in a low-scoring affair.  

The Mavs are playing as well as they have all season and they have tons of momentum coming into this series. We expect a close, high scoring game here and think both teams will get their points. Dallas has covered in six of the last seven meetings here in Golden State and the over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings. Dallas has a great chance in this series and you know they want to steal Game 1 here.

Boston is head and shoulders the best defensive team in the NBA, and we expect a real low scoring Game 1 here. Boston is in Beast Mode as they are coming straight off their Game 7 against the Bucks. They put on a defensive clinic in Games 6 and 7, holding the Bucks to 95 and 81 points, respectively. The Heat are a Top 5 defensive team and they held the Sixers to under the century mark in three of the last four games. These teams will be feeling each other out here in Game 1 and we just don’t see a free flowing, high scoring game here. This is one of the lowest totals of the season in the NBA for good reason. We think we could see both teams wind up under the century mark.

We have been big on Boston this whole series and this is not going to change here for Game 7. This has been one of the strongest teams in the NBA all season after a slow start, and we feel they have a championship-caliber squad this season. They are hungry. They have also been one of the best betting teams in the NBA this season and one you can trust laying points. They have also covered in 12 of the last 16 meetings (one push).

This just seems like a 7-game series to us, and the Celtics just need a win here and they will be heavy favorites to advance at home. Besides Game 1, all their losses were games that could have easily won, but when they have won they have been dominant. This has been one of the best ATS teams this season and we think they are being undervalued again here on Friday as we have them as a slight favorite and we expect them to win outright.

As a Clippers fan, we know all too well that the Mavs have a knack for taking series to Game 7 despite all odds. We expect Dallas to lock down on defense tonight and Luka should go into Superman mode with the season on the line at home. They have been a different team at home in this series and both games have gone under, and we think we will see a repeat here tonight.

The Grizzlies seemed to have given their last gasp last time but still came up short after leading most of the game. Then more bad news came as word arrived that Ja Morant will likely miss the rest of the postseason. So this team for the first time this season knows that there are no reinforcements of their star coming to help, and during the regular season when Morant was out the team performed at a high level knowing he would be back and they just needed to keep the team afloat. Golden State is the better team in the better mental state, and we expect a comfortable win tonight.

Both Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix went over. Way over. Like a combined 41.5 points over in both games. Both games went under in Dallas, but Game 4 was just barely under and one of the many missed threes by the Suns would have sent it over the posted number. We expect a very competitive game here and think both teams will get their points. But mainly we think Phoenix will regain their offensive touch at home. They averaged 125 in the two games in Phoenix, and if they can get anywhere close to that, this total will sail over.

Embiid showed just how valuable he is to this team that looked dead in the water after Game 2. With him back in the lineup, it picked up the whole team and they won by 20 in Game 3 while holding the Heat to 79 points. Embiid, along with Doncic for Dallas, is one of the most important players in the NBA to his team’s success. With him back on the court, Philly is not only a threat to win this series but the NBA title as well. We think they are right back in this thing, and this series now has the look of one that could go the distance. We think the Sixers will serve court at home and even this thing up tonight.

The first two games in this series went under by a combined 49 points, and we still don’t think the oddsmakers made enough of an adjustment here. This is such a crucial game in this series and these teams have had extra rest so the energy for defensive intensity will be there. Boston is the No. 1 team in the NBA for points allowed and they have really been strong thus far on the defensive end, and the Bucks can play defense with anyone in the league when they exert themselves. We see both teams locking down defensively here once again and this one has a great chance to finish under 200 just likes Games 1 and 2.

Dallas had an off game in Game 1 and they still almost covered. They were outscored in the first three quarters and we think we will see a more complete game from them here as they play a close game with a chance to win. It looks like the Suns don’t have any answer for Doncic and we expect the rest of the team to step up and have a better game. Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they will make some adjustments tonight to slow down the Suns offense.

Boston played very poorly in Game 1 and we expect this team to bounce back strong here. They have high expectations this postseason, and losing here would be devastating for their series chances. Boston had covered seven straight in this series before the Game 1 loss, and we think they match up well here and expect a comfortable win from the home team tonight.

We think this will be a series but we think Game 1 will be all Suns. They didn’t seem to miss a beat when Booker went down and they have played well despite that. They have covered in seven of the last nine meetings, and they have won the last three meetings by at least 7 points. We expect both teams to play strong defense here, but the Suns will pull away late for the comfortable win.

Dallas has covered four straight in this series and we think they are the superior team. Utah just doesn’t have it this season and we expect some big changes in the offseason, which will start tomorrow for the Jazz. Mitchell will probably play here and he is probably being forced back too soon in a desperate move and may hurt the team more than help on the court tonight. Dallas has some history in the postseason with series dragging on too long so we think they will treat this like a Game 7 and lock down on defense.

The Pelicans aren’t your typical 8 seed. They retooled the roster mid season and this team has some nice veteran leadership now and a strong roster. The Suns are a team we did not believe in last season. We were wrong on that front as they advanced to the NBA Finals, but they got a lot of good luck because of major injuries to opponents in their path. But they will not have that same type of luck this season and we see them facing some adversity as they already have taken a blow with the Booker injury. We expect a close game here and one that the Pelicans very much have a chance to win outright.

The Bucks lost game 2 and possibly one of their better players but we think this team plays great team basketball and they will want to use this loss as a wake up call and steal home court advantage back in Game 3. The Bucks have covered 11 of the last 12 meetings here in Chicago and we expect that trend to hold strong tonight.

We try to look at an NBA Playoff series beforehand and see how it plays out. We don’t think the Jazz have it this season and this team was really disappointing all season besides a few flashes where they looked like last year’s team. But we expect the Mavs to win this series, and they are a good team even without their star in the lineup. Doncic is questionable here, but we think they have a great chance to win without him as they did in Game 2. With the Game 2 win, Dallas has now covered in six of seven meetings. They are the much better defensive team, and that really matters in the postseason.

This is a very public line in our opinion. The Nets played a very good Game 1 and still came out on the losing side and Boston had control of things for much of the game. We feel that was their best chance for an upset in Boston and they blew it. We think that close scare will have Boston playing even better this time. There’s a reason Brooklyn was in the play in this season. This team dealt with a lot of roster issues but they were also one of the most disappointing betting teams in the NBA and always overvalued by the oddsmakers. That is the case again here in Game 2 as we think Boston earns a comfortable win.

Brooklyn has just been a mess this season. They haven’t been consistent and injuries are at fault somewhat but there also seems to be a lack of chemistry on this team. They face a Boston team that we think is a real contender, and we think Boston will want to get off to a good start in this series. They are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA and they are rested and hungry.

The Timberwolves are a great story this year. But we were hoping they won the play in game because we wanted to go against them in the first round, especially in this first game. This just seems like a team that is on the verge but not quite ready yet, and Memphis is a real contender this year. The Grizzlies have had extra rest and time to prepare for this matchup, and this doesn’t seem like a team that would be rusty entering the first game of the postseason. They have also owned Minnesota from a betting perspective. They have covered 24 of the last 32 meetings here in Memphis and 16 of the last 21 meetings overall. We think they will be ready for their moment in the spotlight here in Game 1.

Cleveland was one of the big surprise teams early in the season and they got here because of phenomenal defense. But this team fell off in the latter part of the season because that defense didn’t play as consistently and they faltered too much once they rid themselves of the underdog role and turned to the favorite. The Hawks are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. This team is playing extremely well right now and we think they win convincingly here. We think both teams step up on the defensive end.

The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. These two teams would probably sail over this total during the regular season in a meaningless game, but this is such an important game for both franchises that these teams need to step up the defense. The team that plays the best defense here probably wins, and both teams know it. Four of the last five games for Atlanta have gone under the posted total, and they played better defense down the stretch. We see that trend continuing tonight.

The Clippers played well down the stretch. Better than the Timberwolves. And they have had Paul George back and he has stepped right in and was not too rusty. The Clippers are 15-6-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Minnesota, and this is a place they always play well. With George back in the mix and no clear dominant team in the West, the Clippers have a chance to go far if they can make the playoffs, especially if they can get Kawhi back at some point. We think they will play to win this one and we think they have a great chance.

Dallas need a win for seeding and the Spurs have two road games coming up in the play in tourney in hopes to make the playoffs. While they would normally be up for an in-state rival, they won’t have any focus on this game at all. They don’t want to use too much energy here. We don’t see any defense from the Spurs here and key players will get limited minutes. The Mavs need to win and they will have time off during the play in tourney, so they will play hard here. Blowout.

The Hawks have gone under in three straight and we think the oddsmakers have posted another number too high for them tonight. The Heat are the No. 3 defense in the NBA for points allowed. Atlanta is not as strong offensively on the road as they are at home. Teams also want to ramp up the defense as the playoffs approach and the game changes a bit in the postseason. The under is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in Miami, and we think that trend continues here on Friday.

The Suns have had the No. 1 seed clinched for awhile. That has reflected in their play on the court as they have failed to cover in four straight and they have lost two of three outright. They come in on a back-to-back after a win over the Lakers last night. They probably had motivation there to send the Lakers packing from postseason contention. But now they head on the road for a B2B and we don’t see them really caring about this game too much. And they don’t want to risk injury. With the Clippers playing in the play-in, they can’t afford to rest here in the final games, and they need to keep momentum going, They are also actively trying to get Paul George back into the mix and to gel with the team before the play-in. So we think they will be real motivated here. They have won and covered in three of four and should have covered in Chicago but lost in OT as an underdog.

Three straight and six of the last seven have gone under the posted number. This is a rivalry and we think both teams dig deep on defense, especially with the postseason quickly approaching. Milwaukee has held Chicago under the century mark in five of the last seven meetings, including two of the last three meetings. Six of the last nine games for the Bulls have gone under the posted number. The bookies have had to post some big numbers because of the crazy scoring we have seen the last couple of months, but the postseason is coming fast and teams will take the games more seriously and dig deeper defensively. We think the bookies got this total wrong also.

Philly just doesn’t look good lately and it’s obvious that they are overrated by the oddsmakers right now. They have covered only two of their last seven games. They lost tough games to Milwaukee and Phoenix, and they looked in a great spot to bounce back with a win in Detroit, but they scored only 94 points and lost to one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Hornets have won and covered in three of four, and they barely missed a cover in their loss to Denver. We see this as a competitive game from both sides, and we have to take the points here. Philly hasn’t covered in the last four meetings (three Charlotte covers and a push).

The Pistons are in a real letdown spot here. They had one of their biggest wins of the season last night at home vs. Philly. Now they have to travel on the road, on a back-to-back, to play the lowly Thunder. We don’t see how they get up for this game. Not to mention the under is 8-4 in 12 Detroit back-to-backs this season. The Pistons are trending to the under, with four of their last five going under the posted number. The most points they have allowed in those four unders was 104. They held Philly to 94 last night. OKC is dead last in points per game this season. Their best player, Alexander, was shelved for the year recently. They have a hodge-podge group of players right now because of a slew of injuries. OKC has been an over team lately not because of their offense but because of lack of defense. We don’t think this Pistons team will be able to take advantage of that defense on a B2B. When OKC has put up big points it’s normally because of the pace the opponent brings, but we don’t see a lot of pace here tonight. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in OKC. There have been some crazy high-scoring games in the NBA lately and we think as a result that bookies have bumped up totals across the board, but this is one where they have created value on the under.  

Both of the last two meetings went over 139, and we see this one going into the 130s also. Cleveland has been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, but they have fallen off in that department recently or are at least very inconsistent. They allowed 120 last time out to Dallas, one of the lower ranked offensive teams in the NBA. Atlanta’s offense is clicking big time and they have scored 120+ in three straight. They are very good offensively at home. We expect both teams to be competitive here and both will get their points to put this one over the posted number.

Two bad teams but the Kings are a much better club, and they seem to be building for the future while the Rockets are kind of spinning their wheels. We feel that the Kings are a justified road favorite here. The Rockets scored consecutive wins over a tanking Blazers team and they played San Antonio tough in a recent regional rivalry last time out, and we feel they are a bit Fat and Happy and won’t give much effort here.

The Bulls haven’t been playing too well and they are on a B2B but they are the much better team here and they need a win tonight. They are No. 5 now in the EC standings and they don’t want to drop down into the play in area. They are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Washington, and this is a chance for an easy win against a Wizards team that doesn’t have the same motivation.

This is more of a fade of Miami than a statement about Sacramento. Miami is in a freefall right now and this is a very public number. Miami has dropped four straight and they have covered only one of their last nine. They had that very public blowup on the sideline last week, and that is the type of thing that can linger for a long time. Can the Heat win this one and get back on track? Absolutely. But we just don’t see this team getting back on track in a big way with a blowout. The Kings enter having won two straight. They have covered three in a row as they also lost to the Suns in OT. So they are playing well right now. The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings so they normally get up for this opponent.

The Pistons have been one of the best betting teams since the beginning of Feb as they have covered in 14 of their last 16 games. They face a Washington team that is on a back-to-back after playing a much more important game last night against Milwaukee. They had a bit of a rally in the second half and used lots of energy, and we don’t think they will have much left here on Friday night.

The Bucks started off the season slow. Maybe it was the NBA Finals hangover. But no matter, they are in playoff form now and have won nine of 11 games. They have covered in eight of those games, so despite lots of respect from the oddsmakers they are still getting the job done in a big way. They have motivation as well as they will want to get that No. 1 seed, and they are currently a couple games back of Miami. Washington is mathematically still alive, but who are we kidding. This team will be eliminated soon, and right now they are probably just playing out the string. If their last game was any indication, that is exactly the case as they lost to the Rockets by 18. This team is getting blown out on a regular basis, and we don’t see the Bucks breaking too much of a sweat to win this one by double digits.

Orlando is coming off one of its biggest wins of the year last night at home against Golden State. Now they have to turn around on a back-to-back and play a team that is desperate for a win and one they just beat at home on Sunday. OKC will be looking for revenge. We just think this is a big letdown spot for Orlando and this team doesn’t deserve to be a road favorite over any team in the NBA. OKC is one of the best ATS teams in the NBA at 43-25-4 on the season. They have dealt with a lot of injuries but they still manage to play above oddsmakers expectations, and they probably have the best player on the court right now in Alexander. OKC has covered in six of the last seven meetings. OKC has had a very tough schedule. If they are to end the losing streak, this is the game to do it.

We like to back a good team after a bad loss, and that is the case here tonight. Last time we saw the Bucks they lost by almost 20 in Minnesota. They have had two days to let that loss go, and we think they will be motivated and prepared against a regional rival here. The Greek Freak should be back here as he is probable, and he is well rested after missing the Minnesota game. He hasn’t been out long enough to be rusty, but he has been out long enough to regain some energy that is crucial at this point of the season. Chicago is on a back-to-back here, and we see a dominating win from the home team.

Dallas has lost two straight and they were embarrassed last time out on the road in Charlotte and they lost to Philly on the road also. This is getting down to the nitty gritty with the postseason in sight and we don’t see the Mavs dropping three straight, and they are back home for this one. Both these teams are close together in the standings and this is a crucial game for the Mavs as they need to fend off the charging Wolves but also avoid dropping down into the play in seedings. They have won eight of their last 11 so we aren’t to worried about those two losses. They are in fine form overall. And the Wolves have had some nice wins for sure but their recent run is a bit deceiving as they have faced teams with missing stars and many bad teams. They will face a very motivated team tonight and one that is the better club, and this line is more than fair. Dallas has a strong betting history against the Wolves as they are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Dallas and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings overall.

Props to the Timberwolves. They have been playing great and are one of the best surprises of the NBA season. But their recent run has come against a lot of bad teams. We think the Buck stops here today, so to speak. Milwaukee is red hot also, and they have covered six of seven. They are coming off a long rest and they have motivation for the postseason here.

The Clippers have covered in three of five, but they are playing even better than that looks. They missed the cover by a single point last time out vs. Toronto and they were catching seven in Cleveland and lost in OT, so they should have covered that one and there was a questionable call against them at the end of regulation. Utah will be missing some key pieces here as they have two starters out, including their best player, and some key role players. The usual suspects are out for LA, but they have their main core that has played this season ready to go. The Clippers have covered in four of the last five meetings and we think they go all out here to try and win this one outright as the Jazz are very vulnerable tonight missing these players.

Detroit has been one of the best NBA bets in March and they have covered in 11 of their last 12. Orlando has been inconsistent, even for a bad team, and they are coming off a 40+ beatdown here at home to Brooklyn. Detroit has covered in 7 of the last 10 meetings, and we think this is a great chance for a rare road win for them.

The Lakers continue to get too much respect from the oddsmakers. This looks like a double-digit line to us. The Lakers are coming off consecutive double digit losses. This looks like another blowout to us. Minnesota looks like a real contender with eight wins and covers in their last nine games. They are peaking while many other teams are in their mid-season funk. They already had their letdown game against Orlando and that is the only game they didn’t cover in the last nine. The Lakers are always one of the worst ATS teams in the league every year even when they are a dominant team, but they have been one of the worst ATS teams again this season and they are once again being given too much credit by the oddsmakers as we had this game handicapped at -13 and think the home team had tremendous value here.

Detroit has covered in 10 of their last 11 games. This team is playing well under the radar and we like them getting over double digits tonight. Their non cover was last time out hosting the Clippers where they lost by 4 while getting 3.5. The Heat enter having lost two of three. We expect Detroit to stay within double digits here. They are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

The last time we saw these Sixers at home, they were blown out of the building by the Nets. That was an embarrassing performance in front of the home fans, and then they needed OT to get by Orlando on the road last time out, so we think they put their best foot forward here tonight. The Nuggets have been a little overrated by the oddsmakers lately and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four and enter having lost two straight. We see a motivated Philly team tonight.

The Bucks have win six straight and they are starting to play like the championship clubs we are used to after slogging through most of the first part of the season. They have covered in five of the last six. Golden State has won and covered two straight, but this team is just not playing well overall as they had lost five straight before this mini winning streak. The Bucks have covered 9 of 12 here in the Bay Area and they normally play well here. Throw out the records here because Milwaukee is the superior team and we think they will bring their A Game to the hardwood tonight.

The Nets haven’t had any stability in the roster this season, and that has led to some disappointing results on the court for the team that was favored entering the season in the East. There are some very wacky trends out there that are meaningless, but this one fits the Nets perfectly: they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games where they won by 10 or more points. So they normally follow up a good game with a dud, and they won by double digits against Charlotte last time out. Philly is just quietly getting the job done and they have won eight of 10 and when they win they normally cover. We think the home team has a great chance for a 7+-point win here.

Boston is playing well right now and they are well rested and catch the Hornets on a back to back. In fact, Boston is playing as well as any team in the NBA and the Hornets are overrated after their hot start but they have come back to earth a bit. Boston has covered in nine of the last 12 meetings here in Charlotte.

The Clippers were embarrassed last time out against the Knicks in a blowout, snapping a five-game winning streak. They now face one of their biggest rivals. Possibly they were looking ahead to this game during the Knicks loss? Golden State is in a freefall and has dropped seven of their last eight. They come in on a B2B even though key players rested last night, there will be some tired role players on the roster here. Clippers have covered in six of the last seven meetings here.

Even in this down season for LA, they are still a better team than the Spurs. And they are trending upward in our opinion. They are coming off a very nice win over the Warriors. So the heat is off them, at least momentarily, and they can just go out and play their game tonight. We had the Lakers as a slight favorite here, so we think the wrong team is favored.

Really not a true Must Win but the Lakers really need a strong performance here. They were embarrassed last time out against their Little Brother Clippers, and they have lost four straight. They will at least give a lot of effort here. Just can’t see another blowout. The Warriors have dropped five of six, so they aren’t in the best form right now. We rarely ever take the Lakers ATS because they are normally overvalued but the public bettors have jumped off the ship and there is actually value in this line tonight.

The Clippers have won six straight in this series. They have owned the Lakers recently. They covered all but one of those games, and in that lone ATS loss the Clippers controlled most of the game until a late Lakers rally. The Lakers are the main rival for the Clippers, but it is a rare one-way rivalry in sports. The Lakers have other more important rivals, so this is normally just another game to them. And the Lakers stink this season, while the Clippers have played pretty well through major injuries and roster turnover.

The Thunder have been giving up points in bunches lately. Five straight games have gone over as a result. We see this one being a high scoring affair. Denver has scored 115 or more in five straight. Alexander is back in the swing of things for OKC and he has been playing lights out on offense since he returned. We expect another strong game from him here, and the Thunder have been playing faster recently. Also, we think OKC might be more competitive in this game than the oddsmakers think, so we expect the road team to get their share of the points to get this one over the posted number.

Sacramento is 7-22 on the road this season. They are a slightly better team in this matchup but we think this is too many points for them to lay on the road. The Thunder are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season. They should be focused here as this is a very winnable game, and we think the home dog has a great chance to cash.

The Clippers are the disrespected little brother in their own city, and they normally get up big for this matchup. They are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 when the official road team in this matchup. They should have covered in the last meeting but they fell apart late but still won the game. This Lakers team is a mess and we just don’t think they are good or going to turn it around at any point. Nice value in this line tonight.

The Bulls are a much better team overall and the Hawks struggle on the road. We think after the long break that going on the road for the first game back is a bad situation for a team that plays poorly in general away from home. The Bulls were a hot betting team before the break at 5-1 ATS, and we feel they will pick up right where they left off.

These are two of the big surprise teams in the NBA this season. But the difference is that the Wolves are just a surprise but the Grizzlies are a true contender. Memphis has been one of the best betting teams this season and very consistent. Minnesota has been somewhat inconsistent. We think the Grizzlies will put an emphasis on starting off the unofficial second half of the season with a strong performance.

Off the extended All Star break these two shaky offenses should struggle to put points on the board. We think that both defenses will have a lot of energy and we expect this one to go well under the posted number. Cleveland played some good offensive teams before the break and had some high scoring games, but we think this situation after the long break presents itself to the under.

Just not buying the Clippers as double digit favorites over anyone. This team has been highly inconsistent and they aren’t blowing out bad teams on a regular basis. They are 1-4 ATS this season when laying 7.5 or more, so they normally letdown backers in spots like this. The Rockets are coming off their best game in awhile last night as they played tough and got the cover in Phoenix. They lost by 3 as 16.5-point dogs. They have a good chance here to end their losing streak before the all star break, and we think they play a competitive game.

Just don’t like the Spurs as a big road favorite like this. OKC has covered three straight and they have been playing well, and we think this will be a competitive game here in OKC on Wednesday night. The Spurs traditionally don’t play well here and they are 7-19 ATS in the last 26 visits here. They have won only three of their last eight overall.

Portland has won and covered three straight. Two of those games were against very flawed teams and we think the Bucks just had an off game. Memphis is one of the hottest teams in the NBA and they have just been destroying teams lately. They have won and covered six straight even though the numbers have been rising. They are 7-3 ATS on back-to-backs so we don’t see that as a problem tonight.

Detroit hasn’t been playing well lately but they catch the Celtics in a letdown spot on a back-to-back, playing their third game in four nights, and coming off a big beatdown of Philly last night in a game that was more important to them. These teams played earlier in the month and the Pistons hung tough and got the cover. In fact, they have covered five straight in this series and are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Boston.

Cleveland is the No. 1 defensive team for points allowed, and they have had two nights off so they should have lots of energy on the defensive end here. This is the highest total the Cavs have faced in ages, and it’s too high in our opinion. Five of the last seven games for Cleveland have gone under the posted number with a combo of an amazing defense and an offense that often leaves a lot to be desired. Atlanta has finished under the century mark on offense the last two good defensive teams they played (Dallas and Boston), and we don’t see them going off offensively against this Cavs defense.

Orlando has covered in six of the last seven meetings in Orlando. The Magic have won four of their lasy eight, so they are playing decent basketball right now for a bottom feeder. Whenever you see a spread like this you have to look for a reason to play the underdog. You can cover even in a blowout. Phoenix just played their NBA Finals revenge game against Milwaukee and they have the Clippers on deck, so they probably won’t take this game too seriously as they can win without 100% effort.

This is a huge revenge spot for the home team. For the Bucks, it’s just another game against a very good team from the other conference. Of course, the Suns lost in the NBA Finals to the Bucks. So this matchup has probably been on their minds since the Summer. Milwaukee has been playing well, but they have had a very easy schedule lately. We think the Suns are the much more motivated team tonight.

The Lakers stink. They beat New York in OT last time out in a game that shouldn’t have been close. The Bucks have won seven of nine and they are playing some of their best basketball of the season after slogging through the beginning part of the year. Their offense has been humming and they have scored 137 in both of their last two games. We don’t see them getting anywhere near that tonight, but we think they will pull away in this game in the fourth quarter and get a comfortable win that falls well below the posted total.

These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league, and the Mavs are one of the best defensive teams. We expect a low scoring game here, and a low total makes the points for the underdog more valuable. Dallas is coming off two games against playoff type teams then they have the Clippers, a rival, coming up, so we don’t see them giving 100% in this matchup.

Brooklyn is likely without all of their Big 3 tonight and some role players because of injury. This team has not had any roster continuity this season, and it has shown on the court. They are 20-32-1 against the spread. Boston is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winners of 7 of 8. And we don’t think they will take it easy against the Nets because of their roster issues. This game is important as a potential tiebreaker down the line.

Just think this is too many points. The Jazz have won two straight, but this team is still really banged up and their recent results have not been much better than the Jazz, who have been slogging through the months of Jan and Feb. Utah is 9-17-1 ATS at home, where they are often overrated by the oddsmakers. That seems like the case again tonight. New York has had a light schedule lately, so they should be well rested. They played well enough to win last time out in an OT loss to the Lakers. They are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 visits to Utah.

Boston has won four straight and six of seven. This team has dealt with all sports of adversity this season to start following their very disappointing season last year. But they seem back on track lately, and they are healthy now. Boston has been one of the best betting teams of the last five or so years, before last season happened. But when they are on track they can easily cover a large road spread like this against a lousy team on a back-to-back. They have covered six of the last seven in Orlando.

Does Portland have Dame Lillard back? Of course not. This spread doesn’t make sense. Portland has been playing well with a turnstile roster, but we don’t think they deserve to be this big of favorites. OKC just beat Portland – by 18! – the last day of January. Portland scored only 81 points. And they didn’t hit the century mark last time out against the Lakers in one of the worst performances of the season. We expect a low scoring game here, which makes the points for the underdog more attractive, and we will sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well.

The Clippers have had two nights off, while the Lakers played last night. That rest advantage is crucial during the mid-season slog. The Lakers won last night, but we have to say that might have been one of the most unimpressive wins we have seen in awhile. Both teams played horribly, but the Blazers played one of the worst games of the season and lost by only five points. They took 20 more shots than the Lakers and hit in the mid-30s for shooting percentage. Late in the game their shooting was especially atrocious. So we give more credit to the Blazers for losing than the Lakers winning. Now they face a rested Clippers team that has been playing the most consistent basketball they have played this season. They have had more roster continuity recently and this has been one of the teams in the NBA hit hardest by Covid and injuries. They lost last time out at Indiana on a back-to-back and on the last game of their long road trip. The first game back after a long trip can be tricky, but we like how the Clippers have had two days off. This allowed a day for the players to focus on personal matters before getting back into basketball mindset. The Clippers had covered seven of eight before that loss to Indiana. The Clippers want this game more. This is a one-sided rivalry since the Lakers have bigger rivals but not the Clippers. They are considered the Little Brother in LA, and they normally bring their best performance when playing the Lakers. They have won four straight meetings and covered in five straight, and they have a long term 17-8 ATS mark when listed as the home squad. The Clippers have a better record (barely) despite having worse injury luck. The Lakers were supposed to be championship favorites. The Clippers were going to be lucky to make the postseason. We think this Clippers roster is definitely a playoff team without Kawhi and George, and they are starting to play better and gel together despite the absence of their stars.

The Nuggets have been playing well, but they are on their last game of a grueling six-game road trip. From the looks of their performance last night in Minnesota, they are ready to go home. And not only are they on a back-to-back, but they are playing their third game in four nights. They are 1-6-1 ATS on the second leg of a back-to-back, so they traditionally don’t play well in these situations. Utah has been a dumpster fire lately because of injuries. Now Ingles is out for the season. They have lost five straight. But four of those losses were to Phoenix (X2), Memphis and Golden State. This isn’t exactly a Must Win Game, but we think they will bring their A Game in order to end this losing streak, and Denver is very susceptible to a blowout because of their travel situation. The Nuggets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 trips to Utah.

These teams haven’t even sniffed this totals number in the last five meetings. We see another game that finishes below 220. In fact, the under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Antonio. Golden State comes in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights, so we think this could be a letdown spot for them. They still have the No. 1 defense in the NBA for points allowed.

The Clippers have dealt with more adversity and roster upheaval as almost any team in the NBA this season. That is a big reason they have been so inconsistent. But they have been pretty healthy lately, they have had more roster continuity, and they have played better, scratching their way back to .500 and back into the thick of the playoff race. They have showed they can win games multiple ways. They are coming in on a back-to-back, but they played early Sunday so they should be plenty rested here. This team has been playing with swagger recently, and we expect them to beat an inferior team on the road.

This is the most points the Spurs have gotten all season as an underdog. We think it’s too many tonight. San Antonio has been one of the better bets in the NBA with a winning ATS record. They do their best work as an underdog. They are 12-6 ATS when getting seven or more points. The Suns are only 5-5 ATS when laying double digits. The Spurs have won two of three and they are playing pretty well right now. We think they keep this one within double digits.

Both teams are healthy and have been playing well lately, and we see a very competitive game here where both teams get their points. Boston has played very good defense the last two games, holding Sacramento and Washington to 75 and 87 points, respectively. But they are facing a much stronger offense here, and on the road. Atlanta averages over 111 PPG. They are even better at home at 113 PPG. They have scored 110 or more in six of their last seven. They have scored over 120 in three of their last five games. Boston has scored 128 and 116 in their last two games. We think both teams get over 110 here. Four of the last six meetings have gone over the posted number.

We think this total is too high. The Sixers have a Top 10 defense, and we don’t see the Lakers lighting up the scoreboard tonight. The Lakers have been playing solid defense, and they could get AD back tonight, and he is an excellent defensive player. Five of the last seven meetings have gone under, and we see that trend continuing here tonight.

We were on the under when these two teams played two nights ago, and there was a lot of hot shooting in the first half and a flurry of points at the end of the first half that did us in. We see these teams making some defensive adjustments here and we expect a lower scoring game, and the total has been adjusted the other way.

The Spurs are coming in on a back-to-back while the Grizzlies have had two nights off. That is huge at this point of the season. San Antonio looked good last night. But this team has been highly inconsistent and we just don’t see them bringing the same effort on B2B nights. The Grizzlies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings here.

Both teams heavily trend to the under this season, and the under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in Cleveland. We expect another defensive battle here tonight. Cleveland has averaged under 100 in their last three games. They have been getting the job done defensively. Although the Bucks have played in some high scoring games lately, Cleveland will slow the game down and we think this one will go well under the posted number.

The Clippers have covered in three of four games, and we think this is a very winnable game for them. The two big stars are still out for awhile, but the role players are mostly back and this is a pretty talented team even without the Big 2 but they haven’t had a consistent roster yet this season. We think as long as this core group stays healthy that the Clippers will start winning more games and covering more spreads. The Clippers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

We agree with the oddsmakers that this one has a good chance for a blowout, which would bode well for the under. Both teams are trending to the under. The Jazz have gone under in four straight. The Suns have gone under in five of six. The Suns are one of the stronger under teams on the season, and this team has one of the best defenses in the NBA and they are very underrated in that aspect. The Jazz have failed to reach the century mark in three of their last six games, and we think they might just barely get there tonight as they are missing some key pieces. The under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Phoenix.

The Pistons are playing well lately. They have covered the last two, and their last game against Utah was much closer than the final score indicated as Detroit was in position to win for most of the game until a late Utah flurry. Denver is 4-8 ATS when laying five or more points, so they haven’t met expectations as a big favorite. They haven’t covered in three straight games. We think the road team can keep this one within double digits.

The Bulls are banged up right now but we still think they win this game. Orlando is on an 0-4 ATS slide despite some very generous odds nightly. The Bulls have been playing well lately despite the roster issues and they have covered three of the last four. After a loss to the Bucks last time out where they were very competitive, we see them taking this game seriously tonight.

The Heat have been a good favorite bet lately at 4-1 ATS when laying points. The Lakers won against lowly Orlando last time out but they had a harder time than they should have. The Lakers are one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA and we think this line is too short on Sunday as we see the Heat taking care of business.

Houston is playing with a lot of confidence right now. They have won three of four, all on the road. They will want to put their best foot forward tonight against one of the best teams in the conference. Golden State is coming in on a back to back and they played in OT last night so fatigue will definitely be an issue. This team has not been consistent lately, and they have upcoming games against playoff teams like Utah and Dallas that they will probably give full energy for. We think they might not bring it here.

The Jazz have covered only one of their last seven games and this team has lost every time they failed to cover. We don’t think their form warrants this big of a spread. The Pistons have a nice young group of players and they normally don’t give up, and we think they will go all out tonight as this is certainly a winnable game with the way the Jazz have been playing.

The Blazers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a road underdog. We think the Celtics will take care of business here and this looks like a double digit win for us. Portland has been very poor on the road this season and we don’t think they have the personnel to be competitive in this matchup.

This is a perfect Get Right game for the Lakers. The oddsmakers have made major adjustments with this team, and deservedly so. They have been awful. They do have the best player on the planet, who should be motivated to get the convincing win here.

The Thunder are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season. They suffer the occasional blowout but they more often than not play it close and lose the game but cover as a big dog. And when they do suffer one of those blowouts, they normally come back strong the next game. They are 4-0 ATS when losing by 10 or more points their previous game. OKC has covered four straight here in Charlotte and they are 17-7-1 in the last 25 meetings.

After their almost 40 point loss at Denver on Saturday, the Lakers faced their harshest criticism from the media, and even Magic Johnson chimed in on Twitter, bashing the team’s performance. LeBron went on Twitter to say this team will do better and Westbrook had to respond to the Johnson comments. We think this team has circled the wagon a bit and we expect another solid performance after they beat Utah last time out. Sometimes a team just needs a spark, and we think the Lakers found it. The Pacers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games, despite some very generous spreads. The Lakers have been getting the job done against the worst teams as they are 4-0 ATS against sub-.500 teams. And the Lakers are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings overall.

We always look for a reason to take the underdog when the points are this high. Detroit has been about 50% at covering these big spreads. However, Golden State is figuring some things out right now with getting their No. 2 star back in the rotation, and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites, so we aren’t getting the consistent play from them recently that we are used to.

The Mavs have been playing very well. But this OKC team just has a knack for covering the spread and keeping games close. They don’t often get the outright win, so that keeps the value with this team. They have covered six of their last eight overall with one push. They are 27-14-1 ATS on the season. The Mavs have been blowing teams out. But this is their third game in four nights even though they were off on Sunday. OKC has the rest advantage because they played Saturday but not Friday. Dallas is 3-6 ATS when laying 5 or more points this season. OKC is 23-11-1 ATS when getting 3 or more points as a dog. OKC is solid defensively and Dallas is a Top 5 defense. The total is low and we expect a low scoring game, which makes every point in a big line more valuable for the underdog. These teams met in OKC about two weeks ago and the Mavs won by nine. The Thunder were without their best player for that game and they are much healthier tonight. We expect a close game.

Denver has scored 133 and 140 in their last two games. So the oddsmakers have to post a big number here. But we think this one will go well under the posted number. Denver is on a back-to-back and averages only 105 PPG in these situations. Utah has been giving up a lot of points but this team has traditionally been one of the best defensive teams, and we think they know they need to step up on defense tonight in order to have a chance to win. They are also getting defensive help as Gobert should return tonight. Denver has been playing strong defense and has held 3 of 4 opponents under the century mark.

The Cavs went into a bit of a slump when Rubio went down, but they have been playing better as of late and have won three of four. We think they will take care of business against a floundering Spurs team. San Antonio has won only one of their last nine and they have covered only three in that span. They are going long stretches where they can’t hit any shots on a regular basis, and Cleveland’s excellent defense should keep them away from the basket tonight.