Sports Picks & Predictions

Love the Pistons as a slight road favorite in this spot. The Wizards are banged up. John Wall is out here and Bradley Beal is nursing an eye injury and is questionable for this game. Beyond those two guys the Wizards are a pretty weak squad. This is a team to fade until Wall returns. On the other side is the Pistons, who have been probably the biggest surprise of the season so far. This team has been teetering on the edge of being a contender for the last couple years but they finally have put it together this year. They are 14-6 SU and 14-5-1 ATS so when they win they normally cover, and we expect them to get the win tonight and easily cover this short line. Detroit is 5-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record!

The Clippers are in real trouble. Now that Blake Griffin is out a couple months with an ankle injury they are now down another starter after two other starters are out injured. Griffin was basically carrying the team up to this point and they don't have a lot to get excited about now that he is out of the lineup. DeAndre Jordan is a nice complimentary piece but he's not the type of player that will put his team on his back and wins games by himself. This looked like a lost season even with Griffin in the lineup but now with him out two months or more this team might be looking at a high draft pick in the offseason. The Jazz have won four of five and they are starting to play very well despite some injuries. This team already had the Clippers number even with a complete roster (4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in LA) but we expect this one to be all Jazz on Thursday night. The Clippers are getting too much credit by the oddsmakers because of two nights rest and home court, but we think the Jazz are the clear play here. We also expect a low-scoring game here.

The Clippers are in real trouble. Now that Blake Griffin is out a couple months with an ankle injury they are now down another starter after two other starters are out injured. Griffin was basically carrying the team up to this point and they don't have a lot to get excited about now that he is out of the lineup. DeAndre Jordan is a nice complimentary piece but he's not the type of player that will put his team on his back and wins games by himself. This looked like a lost season even with Griffin in the lineup but now with him out two months or more this team might be looking at a high draft pick in the offseason. The Jazz have won four of five and they are starting to play very well despite some injuries. This team already had the Clippers number even with a complete roster (4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in LA) but we expect this one to be all Jazz on Thursday night. The Clippers are getting too much credit by the oddsmakers because of two nights rest and home court, but we think the Jazz are the clear play here. We also expect a low-scoring game here.

The Sixers are a bit banged up right now but we think that this line is too large on Thursday. Philly is 7-2 ATS this season as an underdog so getting this many points is very attractive tonight. Philly has also covered in four of the last five meetings and they have not lost by more than 10 in any of those games. Boston has lost two of their last four so they aren’t in the best form right now after the long winning streak. The Sixers play hard almost every night and you know that they want to play well here on the road against this opponent. We expect a very close game here.

We like to back good teams coming off a bad loss and the Thunder certainly fit the bill here as they were blown out in Dallas last time out after a one-point home loss to the Pistons. They have had three days off to lick their wounds and regroup and we think they will be focused and ready at Orlando tonight. Orlando has lost nine straight games and they have covered only one in their last six. The Magic are just 3-6 ATS when getting six or fewer points as a dog. This is a team we look to bet on when getting big points but this is too few points tonight against a Thunder team that will come in anxious for a big performance.

The Kings are playing pretty well lately. They have failed to cover the line in only one of their last six games (one push). They are coming in with a lot of confidence after beating Golden State last night, even though the Warriors were missing some key players. But they are now 6-3 ATS at home and we think they will be competitive here tonight. The Bucks have covered only one of their last five and they continue to be overvalued.

The Heat are very good on the road as they are 6-4 thus far this season, and that is the same record that the Cleveland Cavaliers have at home. The Cavs are on a big winning streak but this team is still overvalued nighty and we think that they are giving too many points tonight. They enter on a back-to-back after a big win against Philly last night. But Cleveland is just 1-11 ATS as a favorite of three or more points this season. We think that this will be a close game and that the underdog has a chance for the straight up win.

These are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and two of the best betting teams as well. But we think the Celtics are on another level above Detroit and we think that they will be very motivated in this game tonight. Boston is 18-3 this season straight up. They are 17-3-1 ATS. That means that most often when they win that they win by enough to cover the number. And we expect that to be the case tonight. The big Celtics winning streak ended last Wednesday in Miami. You expect for a team to lose after that long winning streak to let down in the following games but the Celtics did not miss a beat and earned two blowout wins and covers in their next two games. The Pistons are coming off a big road win in OKC but they have lost three of their last five overall and they got blown out in Cleveland against a team that is not as good as this Celtics club this season. This is the start of a homestand for the Celtics and we think that they will want to get off to a strong start and flex their muscles a bit against one of their main contenders in the East.

The Grizzlies have not been playing well and have dropped seven straight. But they have had a pretty tough schedule overall and this should be a good “get right” game for them on Sunday night. Brooklyn is only 2-7 on the road this season and after playing tough against teams like Golden State and Cleveland lately we doubt they bring their A Game tonight against a lesser opponent. This line has been overadjusted but we expect Memphis to come out hungry here and we think that they win this one by 7+ points.

The Spurs have not played well on the road this season but they have a great chance to start to turn that trend around here on Saturday night against a fatigued Hornets team. This Charlotte squad is coming in on a back-to-back after losing a one-point heartbreaker in Cleveland last night. They had Thanksgiving off but they played Wednesday night and went to OT in that game. That makes this a big letdown spot for a weary team. The Spurs have had two nights off to stew about their last game, a huge blowout loss in New Orleans. Because they were so bad that night we have a feeling this team will come out strong here and bring their A Game to try and put that bad loss in the rearview mirror. Nic Batum missed the game last night for the Hornets and he is questionable here and if he is out or not at 100% then that makes this Charlotte team much weaker as he is a key piece for this squad. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS as a small favorite this season (4.5 or fewer points) and we think that this is a great spot for them to bounce back against a tired team.

This Detroit team is one of the most undervalued clubs in the NBA this season. They are 11-5-1 ATS on the year and we think they are getting too many points once again tonight. The Pistons have dropped three of four but they did not embarrass themselves in any game except the last one, a home blowout vs. Cleveland. That was their last game and that was on Monday so they have had plenty of time to relax and regroup and we think they will come into this matchup with something to prove. And since they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series that shows us that they normally bring their A Game against the Thunder. OKC is coming off their biggest win of the season in blowing out the Warriors at home. We think that makes this a letdown spot against an out-of-conference opponent. And that this one is coming right after the Thanksgiving holiday and two days after their win over Golden State makes this even more of a letdown spot. OKC has been pretty average this season overall. They are still a work in progress. We expect a real close game here and a Detroit straight up win would not be shocking.

Boston is clearly one of the best teams in basketball and one of the best teams in the east. But they can't win every game this season and they definitely won't cover every one, especially with their recent lines going sky high. They lost last time out and now that the winning streak is over this team will probably take their foot off the gas a bit. Orlando is a decent squad this season and they are finally getting healthy. They are 6-3 ATS on the road this season and this team is normally undervalued on the road where they usually get big points. Actually this team is 5-1 ATS when getting five or more points this season and they are 6-3-1 ATS on the road. We think that the Thanksgiving holiday might be a distraction to the Celtics and they could come into this one unfocused and the young guys on the Magic will definitely want to play well here. We think that they can keep this one within the big line.

We like to back the Warriors in situations where they are ultra motivated. And that should be the case tonight as Golden State and Kevin Durant travel back to visit his old team, the Thunder. Golden State has covered in seven straight meetings in this series. The last four wins have all been by more than 15 points. This team always has an “us against the world” mentality and Durant’s teammates will want to step it up for him on what is now enemy territory. OKC is 1-6 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. We think that this team will be good come playoff time but they are still working things out and trying to gel as a team while the GSWs are the complete package right now.

These teams have already met once this season and the total reached only 187. The oddsmakers should have adjusted this total down from that meeting instead of up. These are two of the five worst offenses in the entire league. They both average about 100 points per game. But the Grizzlies are No. 6 defensively for points allowed and No. 4 for defensive field goal percentage. We just don’t see the Mavericks doing anything on offense tonight. They have gone under in seven of their last nine games mostly because of an offense that can’t generate any points on a consistent basis. This team goes through long stretches of cold shooting. They have passed the century mark only once (in regulation) in their last five games and generally haven’t gotten anywhere close to the 100-point plateau in many of their games. We think that they will struggle tonight against such a strong defense. We think the total is the better way to go rather than the spread in this one because there is a good chance the Grizzlies offense will struggle as well. But we also think this one could be a blowout, and that would bode well for the under.

Brooklyn has covered in all of the last three meetings and we think that they are once again getting too many points in this matchup. The Cavs have been just horrible as a big favorite this season and they are 1-9 ATS when laying three points or more. Brooklyn is a perfect 3-0 ATS when getting eight or more points this season. The Cavs are coming off a rare blowout win but this team is just not beating teams badly this season and even though they have sometimes mixed results the Nets seem to come to play every night. They seem to really get up for this opponent and we have a feeling they will make it four straight covers against the Cavs tonight.

This is too many points for a team like the Lakers to be laying against anyone. Even though the Lakers have stunk for the last couple years they can still be a public team, and as the lone game in the NBA on Tuesday against one of the dregs of the Eastern Conference we think that this line is inflated a bit. The Bulls have been pretty good when getting big points like this as they are 6-4 when getting six or more points. The Lakers have only laid a line in this big of a range once, a few nights ago vs. Phoenix, and they lost straight up as 7.5-point favorites. Chicago has covered five of the last seven meetings and we think that this is a very winnable game for a team that won’t collect many Ws on the season.

The Clippers are in their biggest slide in years as they have lost eight straight entering this game. But this is just a much better team than the Knicks despite the recent results and we have to be happy laying this small number here on Monday night. LA played pretty well at Cleveland the other night, losing in OT, and then they were awful in the back-to-back at Charlotte. But they had Sunday off to regroup and we think they will be very motivated to get back on the winning track here. They have a very favorable upcoming schedule and they can start to turn this thing around tonight. They should get P. Beverley back tonight and he will be a sparkplug on defense. LA is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in NY and 6-2 in the last eight meetings overall.

These teams have identical 10-5 records on the season but Detroit is 10-4-1 ATS while the Wolves are just 8-6-1. We think the Pistons have been undervalued by the oddsmakers and we think that is the case here tonight as we had this line at 4 with a strong lean to the road team at that number. Detroit has dominated this series the last couple years, winning and covering in five straight matchups. They have lost two straight coming into this one. The first was at Milwaukee, a very strong team in their own right. The second was at Indiana, and they blew a big lead in that one as the home team got momentum in the fourth quarter. We will forgive them for that slip up and back them here as they want to come away from this road trip with something to show for it and they will go all out for the win tonight.

Atlanta has a lot better ATS record (7-7-1) than they do SU record (3-12) and that is what we look for in a home underdog against a “buzz” team like the Celtics that are on a massive winning streak and just beat the world champs last time out. Atlanta always plays tough in this series and they have actually covered in five of the last six meetings. This is the first game of a new road trip for Boston and after their big win over the Warriors this is probably a letdown spot for the road team. It seems like the bookies are begging the public to take the Celtics here and they are obliging but we expect a close, low-scoring game here and we think that the underdog is the only way to go in this matchup.

Atlanta has a lot better ATS record (7-7-1) than they do SU record (3-12) and that is what we look for in a home underdog against a “buzz” team like the Celtics that are on a massive winning streak and just beat the world champs last time out. Atlanta always plays tough in this series and they have actually covered in five of the last six meetings. This is the first game of a new road trip for Boston and after their big win over the Warriors this is probably a letdown spot for the road team. It seems like the bookies are begging the public to take the Celtics here and they are obliging but we expect a close, low-scoring game here and we think that the underdog is the only way to go in this matchup.

Utah is banged up right now and they haven’t been playing well lately. They are also coming in on a back-to-back. But we just think this is too many points they are getting tonight. This is Orlando, after all, that is their opponent tonight. They have lost three straight as well. The Jazz could get Ricky Rubio back tonight from injury and that would be a big help to the offense here. Utah has won two straight meetings in this series and they have covered six of the last seven meetings in Orlando. We think the Jazz will go all out to end this losing streak in what is a very favorable matchup on Saturday.

Sacramento has one of the worst offenses in the league this season. They don’t even average 94 points per game! They have reached the century mark only once in their last nine games and have not surpassed 92 in their last three. They face a tough test to get the offense on track tonight against a Portland team that is ranked No. 3 defensively. We just don’t see the Kings breaking out for a good offensive performance tonight against this team. Portland has gone under in five straight games as their defense has been excellent but they have failed to get to 100 in their last four games, and they are really struggling with the offense right now as well. We feel the bookies have not adjusted their lines enough for this game tonight.

The Clippers are really struggling right now but this is more a play against Cleveland than for the Clippers. The Cavs are always overvalued by the oddsmakers, and they have been particularly bad at home where they have yet to cover a game this season (0-6-1 ATS). They have been particularly bad as a favorite as they are 1-8 ATS when laying 3 or more points on the season. The Clippers are really desperate for a win. They come into this game having had three nights off to regroup and we expect a strong effort tonight.

This Pistons team is flying up our power rankings and we think this squad is legit. They are 10-4 SU this season and they have been a covering machine on the road. We think that they are in great shape for a big road win here on Friday night. These teams just played in Detroit recently and it was a very dominating performance by the Pistons, who won by 17. We think they could easily score a massive win here as the “revenge” angle is way overrated in NBA handicapping, especially for a team like Indiana that is one of the more lousy teams in the NBA this season. They are just trying to take the season game by game and if they have revenge on their minds then they are going to have a lot of enemies this season because they won’t win too many games. We think the Pistons are undervalued here on the road and we expect them to continue their strong play here on Friday.

The Celtics enter having won 13 straight but we think they are running into a buzzsaw tonight. Golden State has won seven straight themselves and they are in midseason form right now. When this team is playing well they can cover any line thrown at them over any team. And when they are motivated they are very dangerous. And there is no doubt they will be motivated tonight as they have a chance to halt this Celtics winning streak. The fact that Boston has won two of the last three meetings will fuel the Warriors fire even more. This is just the much better team slat out and we expect a big performance from the road team.

The Lakers offense is definitely a work in progress but their defense has been excellent lately. In their last two games, both on the road, they held the Suns and Bucks under 100 points. They have a commitment to defense this season and it is starting to show in the stats. This season they are holding opponents to 105.9 points per game and 44.2 percent shooting from the field, which is a big improvement from last season. This has been a strong under team this season at 9-5 to the under and we think that this total is about five points too high tonight. This will be a high-scoring game but this looks like a very inflated number. Six of the last eight meetings in this series have gone under the posted total. And this is one of the highest totals during that span. The Lakers have gone under in four straight games and we think that trend continues tonight.

The Grizzlies started off real hot at the beginning of the season and they have trailed off a bit and have lost three of their last four. They are coming off a long road trip, mostly against very tough teams, and then this is their first game back home before they face Houston and Portland in their next two games. We just don’t see how they are going to be very focused for this opponent, and it seems with this small line that the bookies are begging the public to take the home team here. Memphis is 0-3 against the Eastern Conference so far this season and we just think this is a bad spot for them tonight, especially with Conley very questionable for this game.

Miami always seems to play well against the Wizards. In fact, they have won five straight in this series. And they have covered in four of those five games. We like them at home tonight against this short price. This is the first game of a home-and-home and these teams play Friday in the Nation’s Capital and the home team is normally a very strong play in the first leg of these situations. The Heat have been on the road for a long time but they have had two nights off heading into this rare home game and we think that the home crowd will be rocking for this one. The Wizards record has been pumped up by an incredibly easy schedule and any decent team with that slate should be better than 8-5. We think there is nice value in the home team tonight.

Houston has won six straight but they have played some pretty flawed teams during that stretch. Next to Cleveland this is the best team they have played during that stretch. We just think that this is too many points to give up to Toronto. The Raps haven’t been lined as this big of an underdog too much this season but they have covered every time they are getting decent points as they are 2-0 ATS when getting four or more. We see this as a very competitive game and we think that the Raptors are a very live underdog on Tuesday and they have a great chance to win this game outright, so getting this many points provides great betting value.

We think this is a real good spot for the Blazers tonight. Denver has been very good lately but they have played their last six games at home and it hasn’t always been against the best competition. Portland has been playing pretty mediocre basketball to start the season and they enter this matchup at 6-6. But they have played a lot of close games and we think they are playing better than that record might indicate. The Nuggets have played a very home-heavy schedule to start the season but they are just 2-3 SU on the road and 1-4 ATS this season. We think after losing two straight really close games that the Blazers will go all out for the win tonight. We had this game handicapped at Portland -4 with a strong lean to the home team at that number so to get them as a slight underdog is a gift here. We think these teams are about equal but we give the nod to Portland because of their great home-court advantage tonight.

Orlando is on a back-to-back here and playing their third game in four nights. That is really tough to do in the high altitude of Denver. The Nuggets had the night off on Friday and they should be primed for a big performance here tonight. The Nuggets have won four of five and they are playing really well, with their only loss during this stretch coming against the Warriors. This is the last game of a six-game homestand and if they get the win here tonight that will make it an extremely successful homestand. Denver has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series and they are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings at home in this series.

With the last two games in this series being decided by a grand total of three points (and the Bucks covering in both games) you have to like Milwaukee here with the underdog points on Friday. The Bucks are off to a real slow start to the season but this is a stock to buy low as this team will be a force this season and it just seems to be a matter of time until they start cashing tickets on a regular basis and we expect that to start tonight. Both teams have had a couple nights off but the Bucks are even more well rested with a real light schedule lately and we think they will want to flex their muscle in this game not only to end a four-game losing streak but to test their mettle against one of the best teams in the west.

OKC has won and covered four of the last five meetings in this series. The Nuggets have been playing real well lately but their record is somewhat Fool’s Gold as they have run into some of the worst of the worst in the NBA this season. OKC has had a shaky start to the season and they have lost three straight. But we just think that there is some nice value here as if this game were at the start of the season the Thunder would probably be 4 or 5 point favorites here and we think that is a more solid number than this short one posted by the bookies. We think the road team gets back on the winning track here in the TNT nightcap.

Boston has won nine straight and now they are back at home after a three-game road trip. Actually five of the last seven have come on the road but that hasn’t slowed the Celtics down as they have covered in eight games of the winning streak. We think they are in store for another cover tonight. The Lakers are still figuring things out. They have covered four in a row (which has kept this line reasonable) but those opponents were all flawed and they face a very good team tonight. This Lakers team has played only three road games thus far this season and as a result they are a bit overrated and we expect a double-digit win from the home team tonight.

We see this as a low scoring game and we think the underdog covers in this one. Orlando is banged up right now, especially in the backcourt, and they scored only 83 and 88 in their last two games, respectively. We don’t see them getting back on the offensive track until they get healthy again. They have now gone under in four straight games and in five of their last six. The Knicks are coming in on a back-to-back and this is their third game in four nights. We don’t see them putting a massive number on the scoreboard tonight although we do think they can do enough offensively to cover this line. New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 in Orlando. This should be an ugly game but it doesn’t matter as we expect to cash both tickets here.

We see this as a low scoring game and we think the underdog covers in this one. Orlando is banged up right now, especially in the backcourt, and they scored only 83 and 88 in their last two games, respectively. We don’t see them getting back on the offensive track until they get healthy again. They have now gone under in four straight games and in five of their last six. The Knicks are coming in on a back-to-back and this is their third game in four nights. We don’t see them putting a massive number on the scoreboard tonight although we do think they can do enough offensively to cover this line. New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 in Orlando. This should be an ugly game but it doesn’t matter as we expect to cash both tickets here.

These teams have identical records but we think the Grizzlies are slightly ahead of the curve when you compare these two teams head to head. We think that they have a great chance to notch the straight up win tonight. Portland scored a big win over OKC last time out and as a result we think they are a bit overvalued in this game as we had this one as a pickem so getting the points here gives nice value to the underdog that we think is very live tonight and we expect the Griz to score the road win tonight.

While the Clippers have had zero success lately against the Warriors they have fared much better against the other Western Conference top power, the Spurs. They have won and covered in four of the last six matchups. And who can forget that awesome playoff series a few years ago where the Clips won in Game 7. After a hot start the Clippers have lost four of five. But this is a better team than that recent record. They are embarking on a long road trip and this is the first game and we think they will bring their A Game tonight to start the trip off on the right foot against a team they have had a lot of success against recently. The Spurs are banged up right now and this team is more vulnerable than ever.

Both of these teams have had slow starts to the season but the Cavs are normally overvalued by the oddsmakers and this team is a very poor 2-8 ATS this season. We think they are overvalued in this spot as well. The Bucks will want to play their best here and you get the feeling that this is just another game for Cleveland. These teams already played this season and the Cavs blew the Bucks out and that loss is probably still fresh on their minds. We expect a much better performance from the road team here in this matchup. Milwaukee is well rested here with three nights off and with that extra time we think they will be primed to end the losing streak here and even if they don’t we expect a close game here.

We said we might cool off from fading the Warriors for awhile as we had a big play Saturday against them and they have been playing really well their last few games. However, when we saw this line we just had to throw a couple units on the Heat here as this line is just too large, especially for a Warriors team that hasn’t been good at covering lines in the regular season for the last year or so. We just think there is nice value here. This is the Miami freaking Heat not the Kings or the Bulls. The Heat have had a slow start to the season but they have covered four straight in this series and they will very likely give a lot of effort tonight against the defending champs.

Atlanta always seems to get pumped for this matchup and they have won and covered four of the last five meetings. The Celtics are playing great basketball right now and they have won and covered eight straight. But with that success comes inflated lines and this one sure looks inflated tonight. The Hawks are not very good this year but we expect this Atlanta team to be a plucky underdog in spots this year, especially at home. They haven’t yet won a home game this season and that won’t continue long and we think they give extra effort tonight in order to try and secure that first win against a team that has become a bit overrated by oddsmakers. We might throw a few bucks on the moneyline here but we think this many points is too good to pass up.

Portland always plays tough in this series and they have won and covered in four of the last five meetings. The Thunder have gotten off to a real slow start this season at 4-4. And when you look closer at their wins it looks even worse when you see that three of those wins were against the Bulls, Knicks and Pacers. They will face a much tougher test tonight in a Portland team that has been playing well to start the year with a 5-4 start. They have had a couple nights off heading into this game and they should be well rested to defend the home court. The Thunder are still figuring things out and we think they are a bit overvalued in this spot as a road favorite.

Utah has a strong history in this series recently as they have covered three of the last four meetings, winning in all three of those games. The Jazz have been playing great basketball to start the season but they hit a roadblock last time out against the Raptors for their first home loss. They have yet to win on the road but two of those games were really tough matchups and they had that one loss against Phoenix that was just a head scratcher. But we think they will bring their A Game in hopes to get that elusive first road win and show the league that they aren’t only a good home team. Utah has been really good against the number this season at 6-3 ATS and we think that they are undervalued again here. Both of these teams have trended to the under this season but we think the oddsmakers have overadjusted the number here and it seems there is nice value on the over.

Utah has a strong history in this series recently as they have covered three of the last four meetings, winning in all three of those games. The Jazz have been playing great basketball to start the season but they hit a roadblock last time out against the Raptors for their first home loss. They have yet to win on the road but two of those games were really tough matchups and they had that one loss against Phoenix that was just a head scratcher. But we think they will bring their A Game in hopes to get that elusive first road win and show the league that they aren’t only a good home team. Utah has been really good against the number this season at 6-3 ATS and we think that they are undervalued again here. Both of these teams have trended to the under this season but we think the oddsmakers have overadjusted the number here and it seems there is nice value on the over.

Denver is coming in on a back-to-back but they always play the Warriors tough and we expect the same on Saturday night. In fact, Denver won the last meeting, by 22 points, the last time these teams met in this building. They have covered the last two meetings and in seven of the last nine overall. The Warriors looked real good in their last two games in blowing out the Clippers and the Spurs, both on the road. But those are two of Golden State’s biggest rivals and we think they were pretty amped up for those games. But overall they are slogging through the first couple weeks of the season and they are just 3-6 ATS as they have not been bringing a championship effort every night. And teams are giving their best against them in just about every matchup. We think that will be the case here for Denver on Saturday night.

Utah has been excellent this season and they are 5-0 at home. But we think that the Raptors are the better team here at this point in time and we had them as a small road favorite in this matchup. Toronto has won seven of the last eight in this series and they have covered in all eight of those games! That is a trend that has lasted for several years. Utah just played a string of Western Conference rivals and they have a game at Houston on deck and we think they might be in letdown mode tonight against this out-of-conference foe. We think there is great value tonight in going against this false favorite.

The Spurs have lost four straight, but three of those were on the road and last night they lost to a motivated Golden State team that is one of the best squads of all time. This Spurs team just does not lose multiple games that often and they want to end the losing streak tonight at home. Sometimes on back-to-backs Gregg Popovich may rest players. But they are already shorthanded with Leonard out and we think they give full effort tonight. We have taken the Hornets sparingly this season but for us mostly this is a team to fade until Nic Batum comes back as he is one of their key cogs. The Hornets have not beat the Spurs since 2016, losing 10 straight in the series. The Hornets have played well, but they have had a relatively easy schedule and it has been home-heavy as well. We think that the Spurs are being punished too much by the oddsmakers here for the back-to-back but I can’t see a team that will be more motivated to get a win here on Friday night.

The Warriors have struggled to start the season. They are just 2-6 ATS through eight games. But their Monday win at LA Clippers showed that all they have to do is flip a switch and they can be back in championship form. They wanted that win badly against the Clippers and we think that they will be similarly motivated for this contest against the Spurs, arguably the second-best team in the west. The Spurs have started slow as well and they are banged up right now. We don’t think they will be able to have much success against a healthy and motivated Warriors team. Golden State might be a team to fade early season against sub-par opponents or laying big numbers. But with this game on the road and considering the quality of the opponent we think the price is right here and there is a good chance that this game will be a blowout.

We were on the Kings last night and they put in a pitiful performance in a loss at Indiana. We just think that they will play harder tonight against what is already an inflated number. The Kings covered both meetings last season and they even blew the Celtics out in one game at home. The Celtics have had nothing but big games against marquee opponents this season so far but this is the first game against a pretty much meaningless opponent and it is probably human nature for this team to be in a letdown spot tonight. That is not a good place to be when laying such a massive number like the Celtics are tonight!

The Bucks are coming in on a back-to-back and they lost last night to the Thunder but this team faces a big drop off in competition tonight as they travel to Charlotte. Milwaukee has won and covered the last two meetings between these teams. The closest out of those contests was a nine-point win about a week ago. This is the start of a four-game road trip for the Bucks, and we think they will want to get off to a strong start in a very winnable game after getting blown out last night. We think they are the better team in this matchup.

The Suns have won three of four since their coaching chance but they face a much tougher test tonight against one of the best teams in the east. This Phoenix team is coming in on a back-to-back after a win last night in Brooklyn where they expended a lot of energy. Washington has had a couple nights off and they will be anxious for a big win here after coming back from a west coast swing where things didn’t go as well as they would have hoped. The Wizards have covered in three of four games and we think they are rested and poised for a massive blowout win tonight against a fatigued Suns squad that is in over their heads.

The Pacers have been decent to start the season but there’s no way this team should be favored by this many points against any team in the league. The Kings have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four but the oddsmakers have overadjusted here. The Kings have had a very tough schedule to open the season but this is a real winnable game for them so we expect them to go all out. Their tough schedule up to this point will help them as they face this weaker opponent. Indiana is coming off a win against the Spurs and they play at Cleveland tomorrow so this is more of a meaningless game for them and we expect the effort to be with the road team here.

We almost always take the Warriors when they play the Clippers as this has been a one-sided rivalry lately. But we think that LA is in a great position to challenge the Warriors tonight and even maybe win this game. Golden State is 1-6 ATS this season and the oddsmakers are not adjusting to their slow start. They are on a back-to-back here after losing at home to the Pistons last night and now they face a big step up in competition against a team that is really going to play their best game against the team they want to beat the most.

Orlando is playing very well to start off the season and we think that this line is too steep. The Magic are averaging a full seven points more on offense than the Pelicans and their defensive points per game allowed is very similar to that of New Orleans. We think that this will be a close game and we think that this is a live underdog tonight. New Orleans just came off a big win at home against Cleveland and they have a tough game vs. Minnesota coming up next so we think they may look past this Magic team tonight. This Orlando team looks like a real scrappy ballclub that will cover some big lines this season as expectations are low and they have been playing beyond them so far this season.

San Antonio has a strong history in this series where they have covered six of the last seven meetings. The Spurs have dropped two straight games so we think they bring their A Game tonight to get out of this road trip with a split. The Spurs don’t lose three in a row often. Boston has been very solid in winning three straight games but they haven’t played anyone on the same level as the Spurs. San Antonio is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Boston and we expect them to have success again in a building they have played so well in the past.

The Warriors are 1-5 ATS this season thus far. This team we think is following more in the footsteps of teams like the Cavs and Spurs who don’t take the regular season that seriously and concentrate on the postseason. Golden State was not very good at the start of last season, either, especially against double-digit spreads. They are coming off that hard-fought win over Washington, a team they have a lot of history with, and they have road games at Clippers (tomorrow) and Spurs coming up. They are probably not concentrating that much on this opponent tonight and we think the Pistons will be able to keep this one close. Detroit is 5-1 ATS this season so it’s obvious they are a bit underrated by the bookies right now.

Charlotte has completely dominated this series, going 5-0 SU and ATS during the last five meetings. We think this line is short once again on Sunday. Both teams are coming in off a different side of a blowout as the Hornets lost big to Houston while the Magic upset the Spurs. That is why we are getting a nice line tonight but this is a whole new game and the Hornets are the better ballclub here. The Magic have had a nice start to the season for sure but we think that they will come back to reality tonight against a team they have not had much success against. Both teams have been playing pretty strong defense (Charlotte allowing less than 100 per game and both teams allowing around 42% shooting from the field). We think this will be a low-scoring game and the Hornets pull away in the fourth.

Charlotte has completely dominated this series, going 5-0 SU and ATS during the last five meetings. We think this line is short once again on Sunday. Both teams are coming in off a different side of a blowout as the Hornets lost big to Houston while the Magic upset the Spurs. That is why we are getting a nice line tonight but this is a whole new game and the Hornets are the better ballclub here. The Magic have had a nice start to the season for sure but we think that they will come back to reality tonight against a team they have not had much success against. Both teams have been playing pretty strong defense (Charlotte allowing less than 100 per game and both teams allowing around 42% shooting from the field). We think this will be a low-scoring game and the Hornets pull away in the fourth.

The Pistons have been inconsistent and the LA Clippers are one of the last undefeated teams left in the NBA, but we have to say that this line is inflated here on Saturday night. This is a sandwich game for the Clippers. They are coming off a big game at Portland where Blake Griffin sank a buzzer-beating three at the buzzer for a one-point win, and then they play their arch enemy, Golden State, on Monday. There is a very good chance that they will overlook this Eastern Conference opponent tonight. And even if they play their best, the Pistons are not a pushover. They are coming off a 20+-point win over Minnesota and will be coming into Staples Center with a lot of confidence. We might throw a buck or two on the moneyline as well, but we think these points are too many to pass up.

Both teams wowed on offense in Game 4 and the Cavs probably played their best game of the season on the offensive end. We just don’t think that will happen again and we think the Warriors make some adjustments on the defensive end to make sure nothing like that happens. We are getting the highest total of the series here by a bunch, and we think it’s time to strike for the under for our big play for Monday. The Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the league even though their numbers don’t show it because they play at such a fast pace. But this team is pissed about how Game 4 went down and we expect them to lock down more on defense. It’s a good choice to think the Cavs will probably cool off big time compared to Game 4 now that they are here on the road. We said before our Game 4 pick on Cleveland that we thought they would give one last gasp and that the Warriors might take their foot off the gas a bit and we think that’s just what happened but now we have an extra motivated Warriors team here that will take care of business and we think that Cleveland will struggle to put up enough points to get this one over the enormous total.

Both teams wowed on offense in Game 4 and the Cavs probably played their best game of the season on the offensive end. We just don’t think that will happen again and we think the Warriors make some adjustments on the defensive end to make sure nothing like that happens. We are getting the highest total of the series here by a bunch, and we think it’s time to strike for the under for our big play for Monday. The Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the league even though their numbers don’t show it because they play at such a fast pace. But this team is pissed about how Game 4 went down and we expect them to lock down more on defense. It’s a good choice to think the Cavs will probably cool off big time compared to Game 4 now that they are here on the road. We said before our Game 4 pick on Cleveland that we thought they would give one last gasp and that the Warriors might take their foot off the gas a bit and we think that’s just what happened but now we have an extra motivated Warriors team here that will take care of business and we think that Cleveland will struggle to put up enough points to get this one over the enormous total.

We have been on Golden State for all three games of these NBA Finals but the odds have finally risen to where the Cavs have some betting value. They had Game 3 all but won but you have to be up by 10+ with even a minute left against this team as they can get hot in a hurry and the Cavs missed some key shots that sunk them. Game 3 is so crucial in a 7-game series and the Warriors got the win and now this series is all but over. We think they may take their foot off the gas just a bit tonight and the Cavs are a prideful team and we expect to see the best game from them and we think that this will be another close game just like Game 3 and we could see the Cavs winning this one but think it could go either way. Golden State had all the betting value through three games but now the line indicates the Cavs have value in our opinion. We have released a totals play for every game in this series but had to stay away tonight as the number has risen just too much and we just can’t play the under with the way the Warriors offense has been dominating. However, we do think that the Cavs might make a big defensive stand here and even the Warriors have a bad game offensively where they have cold spells from the field. With the series basically wrapped up for all intents and purposes maybe the Warriors aren’t completely in the zone and there is always that thought in the back of their minds that they could go home and win it in front of the home fans in Game 5.

Cleveland didn’t play too well offensively in the two games in Golden State but Game 2 still soared over the posted total by nearly 25 points. The bookies posted a higher number here for Game 3 but we still think it’s not high enough. Cleveland will probably do better on offense and pace will be a big part of that but we don’t think there is anything they can do to stop the Golden State offense. They are playing probably their best basketball of their golden era right now and are one of if not THE best team of all time. Their offense is pretty much unstoppable right now. If Gregg Popovich of the Spurs, in our opinion the best coach in any sport, could not do anything to stop this offense then that means Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue is in way over his head. Golden State is even more dangerous when they are motivated. They haven’t lost in the playoffs yet and we get the feeling that finishing off the playoffs with an unblemished record is a big priority for this team just like the regular-season wins record was last season. This team is a collection of massive egos. While big ego is a negative thing in everyday life it’s a great thing in sports because when you are putting your money behind a team like this you can expect the best results on a nightly basis and we just don’t see the Cavs putting up enough of a fight here and we don’t think they have the defensive chops to slow Golden State down as no one has been able to lately.

Cleveland didn’t play too well offensively in the two games in Golden State but Game 2 still soared over the posted total by nearly 25 points. The bookies posted a higher number here for Game 3 but we still think it’s not high enough. Cleveland will probably do better on offense and pace will be a big part of that but we don’t think there is anything they can do to stop the Golden State offense. They are playing probably their best basketball of their golden era right now and are one of if not THE best team of all time. Their offense is pretty much unstoppable right now. If Gregg Popovich of the Spurs, in our opinion the best coach in any sport, could not do anything to stop this offense then that means Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue is in way over his head. Golden State is even more dangerous when they are motivated. They haven’t lost in the playoffs yet and we get the feeling that finishing off the playoffs with an unblemished record is a big priority for this team just like the regular-season wins record was last season. This team is a collection of massive egos. While big ego is a negative thing in everyday life it’s a great thing in sports because when you are putting your money behind a team like this you can expect the best results on a nightly basis and we just don’t see the Cavs putting up enough of a fight here and we don’t think they have the defensive chops to slow Golden State down as no one has been able to lately.

We were on Golden State in Game 1 and we had a great feeling that they would come out strong to start the series. We don’t see them letting up here in Game 2 and we think that this series is much more of a mismatch as it might seem to most. Cleveland is a very good team that plays in a weak conference but Golden State is a great team that plays in one of the tougher conferences in the history of the league in the current Western Conference. Many people like to use the zig zag theory when it comes to handicapping the NBA Finals and we know Cleveland will be a popular bet on Sunday but we think that Cleveland was very lucky to win last year and they ran into a Warriors team that had simply run out of gas. We thought the bookies may have posted a Game 2 line to make the Warriors more attractive to bettors looking to play the zig zag but they made the line even higher for Golden State but we don’t think it will matter as we think this one will be a double-digit winner. We also like the pace that these teams played at on Thursday and we think the rust is off now and that the scoring will be up from Game 1.

We were on Golden State in Game 1 and we had a great feeling that they would come out strong to start the series. We don’t see them letting up here in Game 2 and we think that this series is much more of a mismatch as it might seem to most. Cleveland is a very good team that plays in a weak conference but Golden State is a great team that plays in one of the tougher conferences in the history of the league in the current Western Conference. Many people like to use the zig zag theory when it comes to handicapping the NBA Finals and we know Cleveland will be a popular bet on Sunday but we think that Cleveland was very lucky to win last year and they ran into a Warriors team that had simply run out of gas. We thought the bookies may have posted a Game 2 line to make the Warriors more attractive to bettors looking to play the zig zag but they made the line even higher for Golden State but we don’t think it will matter as we think this one will be a double-digit winner. We also like the pace that these teams played at on Thursday and we think the rust is off now and that the scoring will be up from Game 1.

We think these are some very weak numbers for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. We think Golden State is much better than a favorite of this number as they have revenge for losing last year and also lots of time off to prepare. Yes, this team lost this series last season but they did things all wrong in the regular season by chasing the season wins record and they just ran out of gas with a big advantage in the Finals and let the Cavs come back and win it. They didn’t make the same mistake this season. They did things right and they took it easy more in the regular season and some people were even wondering if this team was as good as last season. They are every bit as good and even better. Cleveland rolled through the playoffs but the east was very weak and they didn’t face the same type of competition as Golden State did. But the Warriors have been in Championship Mode since the stretch run of the regular season and this team is playing as good as they ever have right now. This is one of the best teams in NBA history and Cleveland doesn’t fall into that category as far as we are concerned. They will play with a chip on their collective shoulders in this series and that is when this team is the most dangerous. We think both teams will get their points here but we don’t think the Cavs will be able to keep up for four quarters and we think there’s a great chance that this one winds up in the 230s or above.

We think these are some very weak numbers for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. We think Golden State is much better than a favorite of this number as they have revenge for losing last year and also lots of time off to prepare. Yes, this team lost this series last season but they did things all wrong in the regular season by chasing the season wins record and they just ran out of gas with a big advantage in the Finals and let the Cavs come back and win it. They didn’t make the same mistake this season. They did things right and they took it easy more in the regular season and some people were even wondering if this team was as good as last season. They are every bit as good and even better. Cleveland rolled through the playoffs but the east was very weak and they didn’t face the same type of competition as Golden State did. But the Warriors have been in Championship Mode since the stretch run of the regular season and this team is playing as good as they ever have right now. This is one of the best teams in NBA history and Cleveland doesn’t fall into that category as far as we are concerned. They will play with a chip on their collective shoulders in this series and that is when this team is the most dangerous. We think both teams will get their points here but we don’t think the Cavs will be able to keep up for four quarters and we think there’s a great chance that this one winds up in the 230s or above.

We had the Cavs in Game 4 and they probably would have covered if there had been one more minute in the game. They could have went for a shot to push or cover but they just dribbled the shot clock out. But we have a more manageable line here for Game 5 and we aren’t worried about the lack of home-court advantage because the Cavs won in blowouts in both games in Boston. The Cavs know that the Warriors are resting right now and they don’t want to leave anything to chance here to let Boston come back like they did in Game 3 and we think that this one will be all Cleveland for four quarters. Boston is still a piece or two away from really being a contender for the NBA Championship and the Cavs have that type of team right now and we are confident this will be a double-digit blowout.

The Cavs got a double-whammy of urgency after both losing Game 3 at home to Boston and also with the Warriors finishing their series against San Antonio in a sweep. Now Golden State is resting until this series is over and the NBA Finals start so it’s urgent for the Cavs to finish this one off and put the Celtics to bed. We don’t like laying this many points typically but we think the Cavs are the only way to go here. Boston had their moment of glory in Game 3 but we think this one will be all Cleveland from here on out. The Cavs were up by as many as 21 in Game 3 but they took their foot off the gas and the Celtics played just about the best they can with the current roster and won the game on a buzzer-beater. We see Cleveland playing more of a complete game here and if they are as motivated as we think they will be tonight they should have no problem covering this large number.

We had the Celtics in the east in Game 3 and they won straight up as massive underdogs and now we think that this game will follow a similar script here in the west. Golden State and Cleveland seem very competitive between each other already and we are not even to the NBA Finals. Once one team reaches an achievement then the other team tries to outdo them. And now that the Cavs lost Game 3 we think the Warriors might let up a little bit here. This is the most value-packed line for the Spurs all series and we think they are getting too many points. Kawhi Leonard is doubtful here but the Celtics showed that a proud team can rise up without its best player and we think the Spurs will play with a lot of pride here tonight. We were on the Warriors in every game this series but we think the value has switched over to the other side. The crowd will be crazy here and we have a feeling Popovich has something up his sleeve tonight to get the best out of his team. Not sure the Spurs can win this one straight out as the Warriors are just too good, but we do think the Spurs can keep this one within double digits and this team just won’t roll over tonight.

We liked the opening line in this game and we expected Thomas to be out and now that he has been ruled out for the playoffs this number has jumped even higher and we just think this is a bit of a ridiculous number. We love to back a team that was humiliated in their last game and we think the Celtics will play with a lot of pride tonight. This team has never been about one guy. This squad has played some of the best team basketball in the NBA this season and this is a prideful bunch and we think that they will go all out on the defensive end tonight and keep this game close. We think the Cavs will settle down a bit and they won’t play with the same hunger that they did last time out. The Celtics had one of the worst games in franchise history last game and we just think they will really step up tonight and the Cavs will not get as many easy baskets as they have for the first couple games of the series. When we look at his line we have to say this is not the Phoenix Suns this is the Boston Celtics and they are getting way too many points tonight. This one could be a blowout and we can still cover.

We liked the opening line in this game and we expected Thomas to be out and now that he has been ruled out for the playoffs this number has jumped even higher and we just think this is a bit of a ridiculous number. We love to back a team that was humiliated in their last game and we think the Celtics will play with a lot of pride tonight. This team has never been about one guy. This squad has played some of the best team basketball in the NBA this season and this is a prideful bunch and we think that they will go all out on the defensive end tonight and keep this game close. We think the Cavs will settle down a bit and they won’t play with the same hunger that they did last time out. The Celtics had one of the worst games in franchise history last game and we just think they will really step up tonight and the Cavs will not get as many easy baskets as they have for the first couple games of the series. When we look at his line we have to say this is not the Phoenix Suns this is the Boston Celtics and they are getting way too many points tonight. This one could be a blowout and we can still cover.

We don’t think the extra days off or change in venue are going to help the Spurs too much in this Game 3 tonight. Of course the big story here is that Kawhi Leonard is questionable. We don’t think it will make a difference if he plays or not in this one. This is an injury that would probably keep him out significantly in the regular season so if they throw him in there it might so more harm than good, especially since the Warriors will play at a very high pace and the Spurs rely on Leonard for a lot of their defensive efforts. Playing on a bum ankle will probably hurt the team more than help on the defensive end. If he doesn’t play then their offense is really in trouble as they have to keep up with the best offense in the game. The NBA’s two best teams seem on a collision course for the NBA Finals and there is nothing that is going to stand in their way. Both teams want to end these series early in order to get the most rest possible before the NBA Finals. Golden State saw what Cleveland did to Boston last night and they will now want to one-up the Cavs. These teams really want to pound their opponents and they won’t let up at the end of the game. We really thought that this line should be closer to 9 and we would still like the Warriors at that number and we think they will win by double digits again. The Spurs would be outmatched even at full strength but with two starters likely out (Tony Parker and Leonard) the Spurs are at even more of a disadvantage and they really look like they don’t believe they have any chance in this series. And they are right.

We don’t think the extra days off or change in venue are going to help the Spurs too much in this Game 3 tonight. Of course the big story here is that Kawhi Leonard is questionable. We don’t think it will make a difference if he plays or not in this one. This is an injury that would probably keep him out significantly in the regular season so if they throw him in there it might so more harm than good, especially since the Warriors will play at a very high pace and the Spurs rely on Leonard for a lot of their defensive efforts. Playing on a bum ankle will probably hurt the team more than help on the defensive end. If he doesn’t play then their offense is really in trouble as they have to keep up with the best offense in the game. The NBA’s two best teams seem on a collision course for the NBA Finals and there is nothing that is going to stand in their way. Both teams want to end these series early in order to get the most rest possible before the NBA Finals. Golden State saw what Cleveland did to Boston last night and they will now want to one-up the Cavs. These teams really want to pound their opponents and they won’t let up at the end of the game. We really thought that this line should be closer to 9 and we would still like the Warriors at that number and we think they will win by double digits again. The Spurs would be outmatched even at full strength but with two starters likely out (Tony Parker and Leonard) the Spurs are at even more of a disadvantage and they really look like they don’t believe they have any chance in this series. And they are right.

This is what we took for Game 1 but we think both of these plays will cash tonight just like they did for the first game in this ECF matchup. Boston got off to a real slow start in Game 1 and shot terribly from the floor. That should improve tonight and we think they will play more of a complete game so we won’t have to sweat out this total until the end. Even with Boston unable to make many shots in the first half of Game 1 this one still got over the posted total. It’s doubtful to think that they will go that cold again. And we just don’t think that the Celtics can match the Cavs on the court and Cleveland can easily score 120+ in this game. They have been simply dominant in this playoffs and we think they want to sweep this series really bad and they have a chance with a win tonight. Boston let the Wizards hang around too long and now they are at a severe disadvantage in this series after playing in Game 7 while the Cavs had plenty of time to rest.

This is what we took for Game 1 but we think both of these plays will cash tonight just like they did for the first game in this ECF matchup. Boston got off to a real slow start in Game 1 and shot terribly from the floor. That should improve tonight and we think they will play more of a complete game so we won’t have to sweat out this total until the end. Even with Boston unable to make many shots in the first half of Game 1 this one still got over the posted total. It’s doubtful to think that they will go that cold again. And we just don’t think that the Celtics can match the Cavs on the court and Cleveland can easily score 120+ in this game. They have been simply dominant in this playoffs and we think they want to sweep this series really bad and they have a chance with a win tonight. Boston let the Wizards hang around too long and now they are at a severe disadvantage in this series after playing in Game 7 while the Cavs had plenty of time to rest.

These teams averaged almost 225 points in four regular-season meetings. The first meeting this season made it all the way to 250. Both teams are playing really well on offense right now. Cleveland scored 109 or more in all four of their games in their sweep of Toronto. We don’t think they will be rusty because after a long layoff last series they came right out and scored 116 against the Raptors so they were able to pick up right where they left off. Boston has averaged 124 points in their last four home games on offense, and although we don’t think they can keep up with this fresh Cavs team we do think they will be able to score their fair share of points to get this one over the posted number. We think both teams will run a lot here and there’s a great chance that this one will wind up above 220. It could go well above that number as long as the Celtics avoid any lengthy cold shooting streaks.

These teams averaged almost 225 points in four regular-season meetings. The first meeting this season made it all the way to 250. Both teams are playing really well on offense right now. Cleveland scored 109 or more in all four of their games in their sweep of Toronto. We don’t think they will be rusty because after a long layoff last series they came right out and scored 116 against the Raptors so they were able to pick up right where they left off. Boston has averaged 124 points in their last four home games on offense, and although we don’t think they can keep up with this fresh Cavs team we do think they will be able to score their fair share of points to get this one over the posted number. We think both teams will run a lot here and there’s a great chance that this one will wind up above 220. It could go well above that number as long as the Celtics avoid any lengthy cold shooting streaks.

Game 1 went over the total easily and that was with the Warriors really rusty in the first half. They came to life in the second half and got back into playoff form and we think that will continue here. The Spurs are a team we liked a lot during the regular season. But this team just does not compare to the Warriors, probably one of the best teams of all time, even at full strength. But they are not anywhere near full strength tonight missing Parker and likely Leonard as well. The Spurs have shown in these playoffs they can score without Leonard and we think they will be able to score enough to make up their share to get this one over the posted number but we expect the Warriors to continue where they left off as they scored 71 in the second half of Game 1 and we just think this is a mismatch with the banged-up Spurs and a motivated Warriors team tonight.

Game 1 went over the total easily and that was with the Warriors really rusty in the first half. They came to life in the second half and got back into playoff form and we think that will continue here. The Spurs are a team we liked a lot during the regular season. But this team just does not compare to the Warriors, probably one of the best teams of all time, even at full strength. But they are not anywhere near full strength tonight missing Parker and likely Leonard as well. The Spurs have shown in these playoffs they can score without Leonard and we think they will be able to score enough to make up their share to get this one over the posted number but we expect the Warriors to continue where they left off as they scored 71 in the second half of Game 1 and we just think this is a mismatch with the banged-up Spurs and a motivated Warriors team tonight.

Boston has averaged 125 points in their three home games in this series and we think they will play well on offense tonight after a lousy effort on that front in Game 6. You get the feeling that Washington gave everything they had in Game 6 to win it at the end, and the Celtics were robbed of an extra second on the clock that could have given them more time for the game-winning shot at the end of the game. We always said we thought that this series would go to Game 7 and now we are here. But we think that the Celtics will win this one big. They have covered in all three home games in this series and they have covered in five of the last seven meetings overall. This has been a good series but the better team will advance tonight.

Boston has averaged 125 points in their three home games in this series and we think they will play well on offense tonight after a lousy effort on that front in Game 6. You get the feeling that Washington gave everything they had in Game 6 to win it at the end, and the Celtics were robbed of an extra second on the clock that could have given them more time for the game-winning shot at the end of the game. We always said we thought that this series would go to Game 7 and now we are here. But we think that the Celtics will win this one big. They have covered in all three home games in this series and they have covered in five of the last seven meetings overall. This has been a good series but the better team will advance tonight.

With five days off we like the Warriors here to win in a blowout. Yes, Kawhi Leonard is likely to play here but we doubt he is close to 100% and San Antonio is already down a starter in Tony Parker. They have had a much tougher road than the Warriors in these playoffs and just a couple days off coming into this game. The Warriors did everything right this regular season as for not exerting themselves too much while San Antonio played harder in the regular season than we normally see them (and maybe that is why they have had injury issues in the postseason). We like to play the Warriors when they are motivated and we think that motivation kicks into high gear here now that they have a more formidable opponent. But we think Golden State is on a whole other level above the Spurs and we think they flex their muscle here on Sunday.

All five games in this series have been decided by 10 points or more and we think Washington will win this one tonight so we don’t mind laying the number here on Friday. Not only has the home team covered every game in this series but that pattern has been intact in the last nine meetings between these clubs. With so many short series this playoff season we think there will be at least one Game 7 in this round and this one looks like it could be the one. The refs might give the home team some extra love in order for that to happen. The Wizards won their two home games in this series by an average of 23 points and we think they can play that way again here and send this one back to Boston for a deciding Game 7.

The over has hit in four of the five games in this series. And we don’t think that trend will continue tonight. The only game that went under was that game where the Rockets had one of their worst shooting games of the playoffs and the Spurs didn’t play all that well either. But that was way back in Game 3 and these teams have been better offensively since. This one has all the signs of a seven-game series and has been one of the best series of the playoffs so far. We are sure the Rockets will get the favorable calls at home by the refs to give them an extra push to get this series to Game 7. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play much at the end of Game 5 with an ankle sprain and he will likely play here but it’s doubtful he can play to full effectiveness and we think that helps the Rockets and the Over here as he won’t be at his best defensively and Houston will try to push the pace even more with him hobbled.

The over has hit in four of the five games in this series. And we don’t think that trend will continue tonight. The only game that went under was that game where the Rockets had one of their worst shooting games of the playoffs and the Spurs didn’t play all that well either. But that was way back in Game 3 and these teams have been better offensively since. This one has all the signs of a seven-game series and has been one of the best series of the playoffs so far. We are sure the Rockets will get the favorable calls at home by the refs to give them an extra push to get this series to Game 7. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play much at the end of Game 5 with an ankle sprain and he will likely play here but it’s doubtful he can play to full effectiveness and we think that helps the Rockets and the Over here as he won’t be at his best defensively and Houston will try to push the pace even more with him hobbled.

In our mind Washington has covered three games in this series even though they only covered two. We had them in Game 2 and they should have won and covered but we suffered a bad beat in OT. But they have clearly been undervalued in this series and we think they have grabbed all the momentum in this series with two massive blowouts in Games 3 and 4. We don’t think this one will be a blowout, however, and we expect a close game. But the road team definitely has a chance to win this one straight out. We called a close game in San Antonio last night in Game 5 over in the west after all the games had been blowouts and we think this Game 5 will go down in a similar fashion and we just have to take the points here with the team that is in better form in a series that we have thought was pretty even all along.

Every game in this series has been a blowout but we think we are in store for a close game tonight. All four regular-season matchups were decided by four points or less. We have always liked the Rockets in this series and now that this one is a three-game series we think Houston will take one of these road games. It seems they have regained their shooting touch in Game 4 and we expect it to continue here. The loss of Nene hurts this team but we expect his teammates to rise up in his absence and this seems like a team that can handle adversity well. In a game we expect to be close we have to take the points here and we think Houston is getting a couple too many.

We were on the other side in Game 3 and the Warriors won by 11 even though Utah played well most of the game. But here for Game 4 we are getting probably the best line for Utah in the entire series as they are now getting a big number at home where they try to avoid the sweep in Game 4. The Jazz actually led Game 3 for quite a bit of time and had a nine-point lead at one point. While Toronto basically threw in the towel in their Game 4 and rolled over we think Utah will play with a lot more pride here and they don’t have a lot of pressure in their Game 4 as opposed to Toronto because nobody thought they would get this far anyways. We think they will be loose and will go out there and play their game and we wouldn’t be shocked to see them score a close win here to give the home crowd one last gift before the season ends. We think this will be a close game either way.

We had the Rockets big Game 3 and it was a real head-scratcher of a game. Neither team played well but Houston was just awful. They shoot incredibly poorly. Some of that was the Spurs defense but mostly they were just off. But we still think the Rockets have a great chance to win this series, and they are pretty much in a must-win situation here in Game 4. Harden and the Rockets can’t go too long with this cold shooting and we expect things to turn around in Game 4. We expected Houston to win one of these home games in a blowout and since it didn’t happen in Game 3 we think there is a great chance that Game 4 is the one.

We think there’s a great chance that this one goes to seven games. And we love the way the Wizards have played the last two games. We think they should be up 2-1 here. But they blew Game 2 in OT. But we think these teams are pretty even and we expect the Wizards to take care of business at home in Game 4. After the huge Game 3 win by Washington we handicapped this game at 6.5 with a strong lean to the home team at that line so we love that we are getting a short line here for Sunday. We expect the Wizards to win by 7+ points and set the stage for a three-game series for the right to proceed to the ECF.

Game 3 was Toronto’s big chance to get back in this series and they just fell flat on their face. Now they are playing for nothing more than pride. If they didn’t play hard enough with everything on the line why would they suddenly raise their level of play for just pride? It looks like Kyle Lowry might miss this game as well. They have no chance without him. Cleveland is all about rest as they have played the last couple seasons with rest being a main priority and we think they will want to end this series on Sunday and give themselves a long rest before the winner of Washington/Boston is decided.

The Jazz have snuck in the back door in both Games 1 and 2 with the late cover. But we just haven’t liked the way they played overall in those two games. A couple stretches of cold shooting by the Warriors is the only reason these games weren’t 20-point blowouts. George Hill is questionable here and the Jazz need every single member of the team to be competitive here. The Warriors know how crucial a Game 3 matchup is and the series will essentially be over if they win so we think they go all out to achieve that goal here on Saturday. The Jazz played about the best they can offensively in Game 2 yet still lost big and we just don’t see how they can keep up with the road team tonight unless Golden State just has a real bad game shooting from the floor.

Both Games 1 and 2 were blowouts and we think this one has a good chance to go that way as well. We think the Rockets have a great chance to win this series. Everyone talks about the Clippers failures in the playoff but the Spurs have fallen on their faces in the postseason the last two years with the current core, losing to these same Clippers a couple seasons ago and falling in the second round to the Thunder last season. They just haven’t been as good in the postseason as they have in the regular season and we see Houston taking this one. Yes, Tony Parker is out for the Spurs. He will be out for the rest of the playoffs. That kind of hurts us with this play as I think the casuals put too much stock in Parker’s current abilities and as a result has moved this line from the opening number of 4. But we don’t think the points will matter here. Houston is just a very underrated team. We think that they have a better chance against the Warriors in the conference finals than the Spurs would. And after a lousy Game 2 we think they will bounce back here in Game 3. James Harden had a real bad game in Game 2. He scored only 13 and was 3-for-17. That’s not going to happen again at home and those numbers will probably even out here in Game 3, meaning we expect a big night from the Houston star. In Game 2 Houston went down by 10 at the half and they shot poorly in the second half. And the Spurs shot well above their season average from the floor. Houston will play better defense here at home and the Spurs won’t play as well offensively but we expect a big bounce back from the Rockets offense here. We feel this is a very public line and from what we saw in Game 1 we think the Rockets can win this one by 7+ in this crucial Game 3 matchup.

The Jazz were able to sneak in the back door in Game 1 and we think they will play a better game overall here and we think they can keep this one within double digits. This is an inflated line as far as we are concerned and after playing pretty lousy most of Game 1 we think Utah will play better here. We think they will make more of a contribution on the offensive end to get this one over the posted number. This series has had a bunch of unders, but Game 1 was real close to going over and the Warriors probably took their foot off the gas a bit at the end of that game but we think that this one will be more competitive and the Warriors will still be taking the game seriously late in the fourth. That will help the total here, and we think this will be a very competitive game overall.

The Jazz were able to sneak in the back door in Game 1 and we think they will play a better game overall here and we think they can keep this one within double digits. This is an inflated line as far as we are concerned and after playing pretty lousy most of Game 1 we think Utah will play better here. We think they will make more of a contribution on the offensive end to get this one over the posted number. This series has had a bunch of unders, but Game 1 was real close to going over and the Warriors probably took their foot off the gas a bit at the end of that game but we think that this one will be more competitive and the Warriors will still be taking the game seriously late in the fourth. That will help the total here, and we think this will be a very competitive game overall.

We were going to go higher units on Washington here as we thought the spread would be about 4 but it opened at 5 at most shops and has been bet to this number, taking some of the value out of the home team. We still think that the Wizards will win this one and get back in the series. We think this series is pretty close despite the Celtics winning Games 1 and 2. It should be tied now but the Celtics had an amazing comeback in Game 2 and won it in OT. We don’t think Thomas can repeat his Superman performance from Game 2 and the Wizards will probably get a more well-rounded game on their side and Beal’s numbers are sure to even out after a poor shooting night in Game 2. Washington won both games in blowout fashion at home in this series during the regular season, and we expect them to get a comfortable win here.

Game 1 was the first Cleveland blowout in this series since last season. Toronto won big in one regular-season meeting but all the others were Cleveland wins by no more than four points. We just don’t see the Cavs winning big in both home games here to start the series and we think the Raptors are a live dog tonight. Toronto has been good after a loss lately and they are 5-1 ATS after a straight up loss. That means that this team is good at bouncing back lately, and we think that will be the case tonight. Cleveland has been one of the worst ATS teams this season and they are constantly overvalued by the oddsmakers. We certainly think that is the case tonight as normally the team that loses Game 1 is tabbed to bounce back and play better in Game 2 but we are getting an even better line here.

We think that Utah built a lot of momentum in their series win over the Clippers. We think that will carry over here. Everyone is criticizing the Clippers for losing to an “inferior” team, but we were very impressed with the Jazz and their defense, especially in their Game 7 performance in LA in the close out game. We love the Jazz here getting this many points and feel they will keep this one within double digits. They were able to control the pace in almost every game against the Clippers and they held them under 100 (one of the best offensive teams in the NBA) in six of the seven games of the series. We think that they will be able to disrupt the Warriors offense a bit and slow them down, and that makes all these points even more valuable. Golden State made it look easy against Portland but they face a much better team here in the second round and the Jazz will be competitive here. The nightlife isn’t the only reason the Warriors wanted to play the Clippers because they have a mental edge over that team but we don’t think they own the same against Utah and the Jazz will give everything they have in this series.