Sports Picks & Predictions

The Magic are one of the better ATS teams in the league this season and they have been perfect as a big underdog as they are 7-0 ATS when getting nine or more points, which is the case for this line tonight. Miami hasn’t been good laying big points as they are 4-8 ATS when laying seven or more points this season. This is a regional rivalry game and we think the Magic will come to play tonight. Even though the Magic have failed to cover their last two games they are 4-2 ATS in their last six and Miami just isn’t a good enough team to cover a double-digit line on a regular basis. These games have traditionally been close and the Heat have won by double digits only once in the last six meetings, and that was over three years ago.

We think the Raptors are the much better team in this matchup and we expect them to take care of business here on the road. These teams played earlier this month in Toronto and the Rockets scored a big road win. Revenge doesn’t factor into our handicapping much for NBA but it does play into things when the previous matchup was recent like this one. But other than that game Toronto has covered in four of the last six meetings. This team is very solid on the road and they actually have the same amount of wins on the road that Houston has at home. Toronto is coming off an embarrassing loss at Boston and they will be eager to play better here against a very beatable opponent. The Rockets have lost three straight and are just not playing well right now. And this team is also one of the worst ATS teams in the league this season.

3 Unit Play. #871 Take Wisconsin over Notre Dame (7:27 pm TBS) The Badgers are on a mission and will once again do just enough to win the game and advance to the Elite 8. Wisconsin has been terrible on offense and outstanding on defense. If Nigel Hayes could ever get going I believe Wisconsin could win this game comfortably. We saw last night that the ACC is not invincible and just because six teams made the Sweet 16 does not mean most of them will make the Elite 8. Notre Dame does not have the outside shooters like in past years and they will have trouble scoring inside against Wisconsin. The Badgers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games.  

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Wizards are playing some of their best basketball of the season and have won five of their last six games. They were in a bad spot last time out on a home-and-home against the Hawks and lost the second game, but after facing Atlanta twice in three days they take a big step down in competition here. Washington is really making a push for the playoffs and to us this is a definite playoff team even though this team took awhile to get things together. The Wizards are healthy right now and this team is already in playoff mode because they have to be since they are on the outside looking in for the playoffs. Washington has covered in nine of the last 10 meetings in this series at home, and we think the Wolves are getting too much credit here. They have been covering some lines lately but we think Washington is poised for a big win tonight.

10 Unit Play. #816 Take Oregon over Duke (Thursday 10:05 pm TBS) It is not too often you will find the Blue Devils as an underdog this early in the tournament but it is for good reason on Thursday night. Oregon has been playing outstanding basketball of late and they have the depth and size to really hurt this Duke team. The Ducks have won 10 straight games and only a couple of those games have been competitive. Oregon is better at both ends of the floor and I just cannot see Duke winning this game unless they get hot from the three-point line. Duke is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. Oregon is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament Games. 

4 Unit Play. #818 Take Oklahoma over Texas A & M (Thursday 7:35 pm TBS) Both teams struggled in their second round games against mid-majors but I just believe the Sooners have a higher upside and thus that is the basis for our selection. Oklahoma played in the better conference this season and out of all four teams in the West Region they are the only one to be a consistent top 10 team. The Aggies had a miracle finish against the Panthers and I just cannot see them being able to follow that up against a much better team in Oklahoma than they faced in Northern Iowa. Conference pride will also be on the line as they are still harsh feelings with the Aggies for the way that they left the Big XII. Oklahoma will get hot at some point from the three-point line and that will be the difference in this game. Texas A & M is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the SEC. 

The Pacers have dominated this series with nine straight wins. They have covered in eight straight meetings covering more than four years time. The Pelicans will be without their three best players here. Tyreke Evans is out for the season. Anthony Davis has been recently shut down. Ryan Anderson is out indefinitely and is likely to be shut down soon. When Jrue Holiday is your go-to man, you know you have problems. The Pacers are in the thick of the logjam in the Eastern Conference playoff picture and they need to keep winning in order to solidify their position. They have a big chance to create some separation here with this game and also a road game at Brooklyn on Saturday. The Pelicans have not played well as a big underdog, cashing in just 30 percent of those games with a 3-7 ATS mark. This team stunk even when it was healthy but without these key players and having Davis shelved for the remainder of the season, what motivation does the rest of the team have to rise up here against an out-of-conference opponent? Healthy Pacers win big here.

The Clippers are one of the few teams that match up well with the Warriors. They are the last team to beat Golden State in a playoff series and this is their biggest rival. They have covered in four of the last six meetings and we love them getting these big points tonight. We think this will be a close game. The Clippers have lost four of six and haven’t been playing well but they always get up for this matchup and we expect them to bring their A Game tonight as this will be their only chance to avoid a Warriors sweep on the regular season. Golden State didn’t look very good in their last two games in a loss at San Antonio and a close win at Minnesota. It’s hard for a team to keep up that killer instinct all season long and this team looks a bit vulnerable right now. The Clippers are one of the teams that has what it takes to win at Oracle. Not saying they will win here, but we think this will be a very competitive game.

4 Unit Play. #794 Take Nevada over Vermont (10 pm) The Wolf Pack have been tearing apart these mid-majors in the second half of games. Nevada has a major edge tonight since this will be their third straight home game and Vermont played in Seattle on Monday night. The Pack are taking great pride in wanting to win this tournament and they are getting an energized home crowd to go along with a first year head coach that wants to make a statement. The Catamounts have been playing without Ethan O’day and that is a major void they might not be without tonight. Nevada got Marqueze Colman back on Monday and that helps out a lot with their depth issues even if he does not put up a lot of points. Vermont is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 nonconference games. Nevada is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Jazz are a very strong play here as a road underdog. They have had two nights off while Houston comes in on a back-to-back after a loss at OKC last time out in a game they cared about a lot more than they do with this one on Wednesday night. They are also one of the worse teams in the NBA at back-to-backs as they are 7-10 straight up and 6-11 against the spread. Utah has been playing very well lately and has won five of their last six games. They have covered in all the wins. This team has gotten back to playing strong defense and they are playing better on the road, which has always been a big problem with this team. They have won three of their last five road games, and one of the losses was at GSW, where no one wins. They face a very beatable opponent tonight in a bad spot on a back-to-back and we expect them to earn another road win here.

The Bucks have a strong history here in this series as they have covered in five of the last seven meetings. Milwaukee has been playing very good defense lately and they have held their last six opponents to an average of 95 points per game. That bodes well for them getting big points tonight and also the under on an inflated total. Milwaukee has been playing great defense lately and the Cavs are No. 3 in scoring defense on the season and we think this will be a lower-scoring game and we expect the Bucks to be very competitive here as they seem to relish in playing the Cavs. They even won the first meeting this season in overtime in Milwaukee. Cleveland has played in a lot of high-scoring games lately and that is why this total is so high, but they have played many teams that don’t play defense or that like to run or both. But the Bucks have gone under in seven of their last nine games and this team is playing some sneaky good defense lately and we think they come to play tonight and hold the Cavs down from a big night of scoring which will put this one under the posted total as well as help the Bucks cover this double-digit spread.

4 Unit Play. #660 Take Valparaiso over Saint Mary’s (7 pm ESPN) This will be an out of body experience for the Gaels since they did not travel east at all during the 2015-2016 college basketball season. That lack of nonconference challenge is what costs them a berth in the NCAA Tournament and now they must settle for the NIT. Sooner or later a one seed will win and cover in this tournament and I believe it will happen tonight. Coach Drew will have his team on high alert after what happened last night and playing at the ARC is always a tough spot. Valpo is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on Tuesday.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

Detroit is in the midst of a long road trip here where they can get themselves back in the playoff picture in the East by racking up some wins. They need this game big time tonight and we think they get it against a Bucks team that is coming in to play a road game on a back-to-back and came out extremely flat in that game last night at home against the Jazz in a game they weren’t even competitive in. Now they have to go on the road and they take a step up in competition here. Detroit is a team we think is trending up right now and they are coming off a big win over Brooklyn and an impressive win over the Kings as well in which they should have covered except for a meaningless bucket by Sac on the last shot of the game. Detroit has been very good ATS at home at 20-11-2 on the season and they have won and covered the last two meetings in this series.

Boston hasn’t been playing well but they have had a very tough schedule. They got back on track last time out however against Philly in a 15-point road win and sometimes all an NBA team needs is confidence in order to start playing better. They face another overmatched opponent tonight in Orlando, a team that has lost seven of its last nine games.  Boston is very motivated for this game as they are in the thick of the playoff hunt and the Magic are just playing out the string. The Celtics have been good when laying big points as they are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 when laying six or more points and they have dominated this series in Boston with a 27-10-1 ATS mark in the last 38 meetings.

We think this is a bad spot for the Spurs as well as an inflated line. This is a letdown game after the Spurs won the marquee game thus far this season at home against Golden State on Saturday. The Hornets are quietly playing great basketball, having won 9 of 11 games overall, and this is their best chance to stop a 10-game losing streak against the Spurs – both with their best team and with the Spurs on letdown alert. The Hornets lost an embarrassing one last time out as they were beaten handily by the Nuggets at home. They will be anxious to get that loss in the rearview mirror and also to snap this streak against the Spurs. We aren’t saying they will, but we expect a very close game here and with the Spurs coming off this GSW game they won’t have the same fire as their opponent. This is a huge game for the Hornets and we think they will compete for the win here.

4 Unit Play. #724 Take Xavier over Wisconsin (5:40 pm TNT) Wisconsin is about running on empty and they do not have much left in the tank. They got lucky Pittsburgh played worse than them on Friday or they would have been knocked out of the tournament in embarrassing fashion. The problem is their two best players have been playing terrible of late and without them playing well and making shots this team just struggles to score points. Hayes and Koenig have not produced three straight games and I do not see them being able to turn it around on Sunday. Wisconsin will play better on offense today but it will not be enough to keep the deficit under double digits. Going in I thought Xavier was the weakest of the 4 two seeds but they seem to be undervalued all season long. The Musketeers are just as physical as are the Panthers and they are deeper, smarter, and better coached. Xavier is 28-5 on the season and just do not beat themselves. If Wisconsin lights it up from long range they can keep it close but I just do not see that happening. Xavier beat Wisconsin in the second round in 2009 and history will repeat itself again. Xavier is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against Big 10 teams. Wisconsin is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Big East teams. 

These teams are pretty even except for the fact that the Bucks are really good at home (21-13) and the Jazz are really bad on the road (11-23).Milwaukee is quietly playing very well right now. They have won four of their last five games. Utah has won three of four, but their road victory in that stretch was over struggling Sacramento and they showed their true road colors last night in a loss to also-struggling Chicago. So Utah isn’t good on the road and they have to play a back-to-back here on the road in an earlier-than-normal start. And Milwaukee is well rested as they have had two nights off and have generally played a very light schedule lately. The Bucks can pretty much kiss their playoff hopes goodbye if they lose this game and we expect them to play strong at home in what is a bad spot for the visitors.

They Clippers were off for a couple nights after throttling Houston on the road and they came out very rusty last night against a hot-shooting Memphis team. They were run out of the building and now that makes this an even more important game. The Clippers have done very well after a loss as they are 9-3 ATS after getting beat. The Pelicans are a team on our fade list right now. This team is way out of the playoff hunt and they are dealing with a ton of injuries and they don’t have a lot of veteran leadership to keep this team together right now. And Anthony Davis is one of the injured as he is listed as out tonight. We think the Clippers will have a strong game in the paint and Chris Paul and co. will play with come intensity tonight after an embarrassing loss to the Grizzlies second team last night.

Dallas has won and covered in three of the last four meetings in this series and we like them to do so today as well in this early Sunday start. Neither team has been playing well lately but both have had tough schedules. But Dallas does their best work at home and the Blazers just aren’t very good on the road. They are 15-22 on the road this season and they are 1-6 in their last seven away from home. Dallas has a tenuous hold on the No. 8 spot in the west and they need this game more than the Blazers do. They have covered nine of the last 12 meetings in this series and five of the last six at home. These teams have a couple nights off before they play each other again on Wednesday and we expect the home team to take care of business here as they know they can make up a lot of ground in the playoff hunt with a sweep but that makes this a must-win game.

Golden State is mortal on the road where they have lost six games this season. The Spurs are immortal at home where they are 34-0 this season. This is a major revenge spot for the Spurs after their beat down in the Bay Area in January. Revenge isn’t a big handicapping factor for us in the NBA but when it’s a team like the Spurs getting beat up like that you know they will have a chip on their shoulder. We are helped here in the fact that the Warriors have a back-to-back here. They used a lot of energy in their big win last night in Dallas and they are going to need everything they have here. And not only are the Warriors on a back-to-back but they have a couple key injuries as Bogut and Iguodala will both miss this game so they aren’t at full strength while the Spurs are completely healthy with a blank injury list. The Spurs have covered in five of the last seven meetings and we love their chances for a signature win tonight.

Love the way the Hornets have been playing lately, winning nine of their last 10 games, and this team is finally healthy and playing as a group. When healthy this team is a contender in the Eastern Conference, And they have been good for bettors, too, covering in seven of their last 10 games. The Nuggets are in the midst of an eastern swing, and this team has been progressively worse as the road trip has worn on. They have lost all three games so far but have failed to cover in the last two and got a beat down from Atlanta last time out. They have allowed at least 116 in all three of those road games. The Hornets offense is really clicking right now and we don’t think they will have any problems covering this large number and this team has covered in four of the last five meetings.

5 Unit Play. #529 Take Indiana over Kentucky (5:15 pm CBS) This is just too many points for a pick’em game. Kentucky is not as strong as they have been the last two years especially on the defensive side of the floor. Indiana has just as much talent as does Kentucky and this could be a landmark win for Coach Tom Crean and company. If Indiana wins this game the Hoosier faithful will finally embrace Tom Crean and I just do not see them getting blown out in this game. Indiana is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. Kentucky is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 nonconference games. The value lies in Red. 

4 Unit Play. #543 Take Louisiana Lafayette over Furman (2 pm) The Paladins needed a miracle finish to beat ULM but their luck is going to run out in this game. Once Davidson left the Southern Conference it become one of the bottom conferences in the country and thus a team from the Sun Belt should have no problem beating them. The Ragin Cajuns took UALR to the brink last week and we saw how good the Trojans are by beating Purdue. 70% of the money is coming in on ULL and that is with good reason.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

4 Unit Play. #847 Take Cincinnati over Saint Josephs (Friday 9:55 pm True TV) We have had a great feel for this Hawk team all season long but I feel they will be a quick one and done come earlier Saturday morning. Saint Joseph’s won the Atlantic 10 Conference yet they enter this game as an underdog against a middle of the pack team from the American Conference. To me that is a good sign to play Cincinnati. Neither team can shoot all that well and the Bearcats have the bodies to match-up with the Hawks in the paint. 

The Blazers have cooled down a little. But when you look at their schedule they have played San Antonio, OKC and Golden State all on the road. Those are the three best teams in the Western Conference and all on a different tier than the Blazers. But now they get to face a team that is a couple notches below them and this for us is when baseball players have the weights on their bats in the on deck circle. The Spurs, Thunder and Warriors were the weights and have this team battle tested and things should seem easy for this Blazers team against New Orleans, especially on the road. Portland has won seven of the last eight meetings and they have covered in five of the last six. They match up well here and the Pelicans are a team on our fade list right now as this team doesn’t have a lot to play for and they have a lack of veteran leadership to inspire the players on the team.

These two teams have much different motivations tonight as the Pistons are the odd man out in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt at No. 9 but in the second game of a nine-game homestand that can vault them into the playoffs. The Kings are just playing out the string of another down season with a lame-duck coach leading the team and inevitable change on the horizon. The Pistons are a solid team and we think this is a playoff team in the East. They lost last time out against Atlanta in a hard-fought game and this team really must step up tonight and beat this lesser opponent handily. We think they can do it. Detroit has won five of the last six meetings in this series and they have covered in seven of the last nine. All the motivation is in their corner and we actually thought this spread would be closer to double digits, especially since it looks like Rondo is out for Sac and Jackson is a go for the Pistons.

The Thunder have been one of the worst ATS teams this season but as the playoff stretch drive of the regular season is here this team has been playing better and covering numbers. We don’t see them taking this game off as they try to separate themselves from the Clippers in the top half of the Western Conference bracket. OKC has covered five of their last six games and we think they take care of business as a big road favorite here. The Sixers haven’t had much success against any team not named “Brooklyn” lately. They are 14-19-1 ATS at home where they often get too much credit from the oddsmakers for a non-existent home-court advantage. They are just 4-12 ATS at home against teams with a winning record above .500. They come into this one on a back-to-back after another tough game Thursday against Washington. This team is just 5-9 ATS on the second half of a back-to-back and this will also be their third game in four nights. Jahlil Okafor is now out for the remainder of the season and he was the guy who sparked this team whenever it did play well. The Sixers are dealing with a host of other injuries to an already thin roster. Philly has been playing very poor defense lately and the Thunder can pick their score here and they won’t have any problems putting up enough points to cover this big number. 

4 Unit Play. #836 Take Wisconsin over Pittsburgh (Friday 6:50 pm TNT) The Panthers are always known for tough noise defense and rebounding but that is not the case with this team. The Panthers are shaky on defense and they have never had great offensive teams. Pittsburgh have lost three of their last four games and two of those games came against teams that did not make the NCAA Tournament (Georgia Tech & Virginia Tech). I believe the rest did Wisconsin good and they will be refreshed and ready to play on Friday in St Louis. Wisconsin has the higher upside if they play well and that will be good enough to win this pick’em game. 

4 Unit Play. #826 Take Oklahoma over Cal State Bakersfield (4 pm TNT) The Sooners are one of the most disappointing teams in the entire country this season. That being said they still have a ton of talent and with their guards they have the ability to go deep into this tournament. Throw in the fact they are playing this game in Oklahoma City and expect a 20-point plus victory for OU. Bakersfield plays in the worst conference in the country and they have a retread as a coach in Rod Barnes. His teams seem to get better once he leaves and I have no confidence that he can keep this game close.  

The Sixers are always overvalued at home. This team is 13-19-1 at home this season. The oddsmakers give them too much credit for home-court advantage. At 6-27 at home the fans don’t have a lot to cheer about. So Philly is getting some extra credit from the oddsmakers for being at home here. The Wizards are also getting dinged for being on a back-to-back. We don’t think those two factors will matter and we expect a big game from the Wizards here. The dog days of the summer are over. The Wizards are a good team that has been a disappointment this season. They are currently in the 10th position in the playoff race in the Eastern Conference, a couple games back from the eight seed. They can’t overlook a game like this and take the night off like they have so many times this season. They need to win and win big here. Being the eight seed in the east is not a death sentence like in the west as the east is pretty wide open this season. But the Wizards have to make their playoff push now. And this team has been playing excellent basketball. They beat the Bulls by 21 last night and the Pistons by 43 on Monday. This team is healthy, unlike the Sixers who stink with a full roster but are really banged up now, and they are playing incredibly well on offense. That’s a bad sign for the Sixers, who have given up 256 points in their last two games. The Sixers don’t have much reason to play better than they have been tonight and the Wizards have every reason to win this one big. Oh yeah, and the Wiz Kids are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Philly.

10 Unit Play. #742 Take Purdue over Arkansas Little Rock (4:30 pm TBS) NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. Purdue is one of the most physical teams in the country and their size will be too much for the Trojans to overcome. UALR played in a weak one bid league this season and they have yet to see a team as big as Purdue. The Trojans play a very similar style as does the Boilermakers, both rely on defense and that fits right into Purdue’s strength. UALR averages just 33.8 rebounds per game (286th in the country) and Hammonds and company will fest on the backboards on both ends of the floor. Purdue comes in with a chip on their shoulder as they gave away the Big 10 Tournament Championship Game by failing to execute down the stretch. The Trojans played just two teams this season that made NCAA Tournament (Texas Tech & Tulsa both bubble teams). The only question is how well Purdue will shoot the basketball because of they can find the touch from long range they will win this game by 15-18 points. When Purdue wins, it tends to come by double digits. 

This is a big rivalry now after last year’s playoff series that saw the Rockets come back from 3-1 down in the series and down big late in Game 5 to come back and win it in Game 7. It has been tough going lately for the Clippers who have been blown out in three of their last four games. But those games were all against teams that were very strong in OKC, San Antonio and Cleveland. The Cavs game was an off game and the Spurs game was very close heading into the fourth quarter before the Spurs started hitting all their shots and the Clips went cold. But they face a step down in competition here and the Rockets aren’t as good as they have been in the past. This team has been a very poor betting team this season at 30-37 ATS. They are often overvalued here at home where they are 13-19 ATS, and we feel that is the case tonight. LA is 8-5 straight up on back-to-backs this season so we are not too worried about fatigue. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a loss so they normally bounce back strong. After two blowouts and facing a lesser opponent they will likely go all out tonight to get a win here. We actually have the Clippers as a slight favorite in this one and even if they do lose we just don’t see a blowout here tonight. So the spread could come into play if they don’t play as well as we expect them to. But we do think they will win this one straight up. The Rockets have not done well against teams that play well on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning road record.

Boston enters this one on a back-to-back after a real tough loss last night at Indiana. This team has lost three of their last four and they are on a downturn right now. OKC has covered four of five after being one of the worst ATS teams most of the season. But that they are starting to cover lines is an indication this team is rounding into playoff form. We think the Thunder will be ultra motivated here. When these teams met in November in OKC Boston blew the Thunder out 100-85. Russell Westbrook from the Thunder and Marcus Smart from the Celtics were jawing at each other all game and Smart went off for a big night and Westbrook commented in the media to indicate he was looking forward to playing them again. Sharp bettors moved this line a bit overnight and sapped some of the value out but we think the Thunder can win this by 7+.

1 Unit Play. #619 Take Southern over Holy Cross (6:40 pm TRUE TV) Granted I do not know very much about either of these teams but I do not that Bill Carmody is a loser. The Crusaders have no business being in the NCAA Tournament since their record is just 14-19. There were riding during their conference tournament that ended a week from today and all this time off is not a good thing for them. Expect them to come back to reality tonight. The Jaguars have some decent wins on the season and they are a much better offensive team in this match-up. Holy Cross is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.  

The Clippers match up well with the Spurs and they have won three of the last four meetings, including that blowout right after the all-star break. LA played one of their worst games of the season last time out at home vs. Cleveland, but they have been very good after a loss and they will be anxious to put that game behind them with a solid performance here tonight. This is just too many points and a very public line. The Clippers have a pretty bad rap and the public has lost confidence in them since Blake Griffin went down, but this team has been playing overall very well and they are competitive on a nightly basis save for a rare off game. The Clippers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after a loss. This is the most points the Clippers have gotten all season as a dog and we think there is very nice value on the underdog here.

Boston is not in perfect form right now as they have dropped three of their last four ATS while going 2-2 in those games. This has been one of the best ATS teams in the league for most of the season but the oddsmakers have made an adjustment on their lines and that has created value in spots to go against them. The Pacers stunk last time out against the Hawks and they will be anxious to put that effort behind them. Overall they have been playing very well and have won four of their last six and they have covered five of their last seven. One of those wins was against the Spurs so this team can beat any squad on any given night. They have won two of three against Boston this season, so we know they match up well here. Both teams have some key players banged up but most are questionable tonight and Jae Crowder will for sure be out for Boston and this guy is way underrated. The Pacers are very good at home while Boston is average on the road and we think the Pacers win comfortably here.

Golden State has won big and covered in all of the last three meetings and tonight they face a broken and demoralized New Orleans team that has dropped three straight and seen This team is now closer to the bottom of the standings in the conference than the playoff hunt and we think we are going to see some more bad play down the stretch run of the season from this group. They are in way over their heads tonight. Anthony Davis is a great young player, but the key word is “young” and he just doesn’t have enough experience to put this team on his shoulders down the stretch and they don’t have a lot of leader types on this team so this is one to go against down the stretch. The Warriors are getting back to their dominating ways lately and have had a couple blowouts in recent games and we expect to see the best from this team tonight against a very familiar opponent.

Just love the way the Hornets have been playing and this team has won seven straight. This team doesn’t get much attention but quietly they are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. That’s a big reason they have covered all but one line in this current winning streak. On the other end of the spectrum the Mavs have lost five straight. This team is really struggling right now and they don’t have a lot of motivation to come in here and play better than they have against an out-of-conference opponent. The Hornets are one of the better home teams in the league at 25-9 while Dallas is well below average on the road. This Charlotte team has won 13 of 15 games overall and they are the best team right now that no one is talking about and that is why this team still has betting value and we feel like this line is a couple points short as well.

10 Unit Play. #888 Take Connecticut over Memphis (3:15 pm ESPN) Besides the players and coaches I just do not believe Memphis wants to win this game and make the NCAA Tournament. That is because they would have to keep their coach for the fans, media, and administration want to replace. We saw yesterday that Connecticut was not tired despite playing in a marathon on Friday and they should have even more energy for this game. The Huskies are not a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and thus the cannot afford to take this game lightly. UCONN beat Memphis twice this season including a 20-point victory in Memphis last March. Memphis is not a bid stealer today. Connecticut is 35-15 ATS (1 push) in their last 51 neutral site games. 

The Thunder are just getting way too many points here and all the value is with the underdog in this matchup. This is the most points given to the Thunder all season long and you just can’t give a team like this that many points. They lost to Minnesota on a last-second shot last night and this team will be desperate to get back on the right track. We think they lost that game because they were looking ahead to this game. The Thunder lost a couple to the Warriors the last couple weeks and they want to prove they belong with the best in the west so they should be very motivated tonight. The Spurs are a great team but they are not as good as Golden State and this team will probably lose a game at home at some point and when they do it is probably going to be against one of the other Top 4 teams in the west and the Thunder certainly fit the bill in that regard and we expect a very close game tonight.

This is a real bad spot for the Pelicans tonight. Not only do they come in on a back-to back after a grueling overtime game last night against physical Memphis, but this will be their third game in four nights. On the other hand, the Bucks have had two nights off to rest and prepare for this game and we think they will come out and play a solid game here. This team has been good at home lately where they have won three of five. One of those losses was to OKC and one was a close one to Indiana. But they face a step down in competition here from those games and we think this is a real good spot for a rested team to do their best work tonight. The Pelicans are just 3-10 on back-to-backs this season and they do not play well in these situations and while both teams are banged up the Pelicans have a worse injury situation and the Bucks are flat out undervalued tonight.

Philly is coming into this one on a back-to-back after a rare win on Friday. This team is probably happy with itself right now for that win and they did their positive work for the next week+ last night. This is a team that does not give top effort every night and we expect a flat effort from them tonight. Detroit comes in on a back-to-back as well and this team lost a tough one in Charlotte last night but this Detroit team is very good and they will play hard tonight in a “get right” game in order to get back on track against a very beatable opponent. The Pistons have won three straight meetings in this series by double digits and we think the same happens here. Philly is especially bad ATS at home where the oddsmakers often give them too much credit but they don’t have a real good home-court advantage with many apathetic fans.

10 Unit Play. #748 Take Kansas over West Virginia (6 pm ESPN) The final score of the Kansas game was not indicative of how Kansas was in control for 40 minutes and was never in danger of losing that game. West Virginia got a gift from Oklahoma down the stretch and they are certainly playing with house money in this game. That being said Kansas is far and away the best team in the league and they have a big advantage playing this conference tournament in Kansas City. Unlike Oklahoma, Kansas is not soft and they do not beat themselves. West Virginia will not be able to make enough jump shots to stay close and it will be rock chalk Jayhawk on Saturday evening. Kansas has not only been winning a lot of late they have been covering the spread as well going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games. 

5 Unit Play. #584 Take Fresno State over Colorado State (11:30 pm CBSSN) The Bulldogs have a real chance to win this conference tournament and the bracket has really opened up for them. They face a similar team in Colorado State than what they faced last night. Actually the Rams play less defense than do the Rebels and that only bodes well for the Bulldogs. The Rams were just 8-10 in a bad MWC this season and this will be their third game in three days. Fresno State won the only meeting by 14 points. The Rams are 18-38 ATS (1 push) in their last 57 games following a victory in their previous outing. Fresno State has covered the spread in 4 straight games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Clippers have been great at bouncing back from losses lately where they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight after a loss. They lost a bad one to OKC last time out, now they are back home against a way inferior opponent and we expect them to play well and win big here. The Clippers have dominated this series the last few years. They have won seven straight meetings by double digits and they have covered in all but one of those, where they missed the cover by just half a point. LA has played a pretty light schedule lately with no back-to-backs and they have a big rest advantage over the Knicks, who were off last night but were on a back-to-back Tuesday and Wednesday so this will be their third game in four nights. This team just hasn’t been playing well consistently and we think this is a real bad spot for them tonight.

The Timberwolves are amazingly 11-3 ATS this season on the road against above-.500 teams. They play their best basketball in this underdog role. They are 15-10 ATS when catching 16 or more points. They have also covered two of the last three meetings in this series. The Thunder are just not a good betting team this season. This team wins games but they don’t put teams away. They often play down to their level of competition like in this scenario tonight and they don’t seem to have that killer instinct that the Warriors and Spurs have to play hard at the end of games and close the opportunity for a back door cover. With the Wolves stellar record on the road against winning teams you always have to look at them when catching double digits and these young guys often give their best effort against marquee teams and we think that will be the case tonight.

Boston has covered the last two meetings and they already blew the Rockets out in Houston by 16 in November. Boston continues to be one of the best ATS teams in the league while Houston is down on the other side of that list with a 28-36 ATS record on the season. We expect the home team to get the job done tonight. Houston is coming off two straight wins, but one was against the Sixers so that isn’t too impressive although they played very well against the Raptors. But this team just doesn’t have any consistency and they are now in the fourth game of a five-game road trip so the road blues are probably starting to kick in. The Celtics have been playing very well at home, where they have won 14 straight, and Houston just isn’t a great road team.

These are both bad teams, but Philly is a whole different level of bad than the Nets. And we think this line is too short tonight. The Sixers actually beat the Nets for one of their rare wins on the year in the last meeting about a month ago, but Philly had Jahlil Okafor in that one, and he is listed as doubtful tonight. He will probably be shut down for the season soon as the Sixers have no incentive to win games. He had 22 points and 17 rebounds in that last meeting. And the Sixers won by five. Without that kind of contribution they are going to have a tough time winning this one, and we think this line should have been closer to 5. Brooklyn has been pretty competitive lately. They have covered six of eight on this long road trip. They are 19-12 ATS on the road this season. We think they win comfortably tonight.

10 Unit Play. #532 Take St Josephs over George Washington (2:30 pm NBCSN) We have collected big with St Joes all season long and will go to the well once again. The Hawks have been in a freefall at the moment losing two straight games to close out the regular season but I expect them to rebound on Friday. Neither team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament and thus the Hawks just cannot go through the motions. St. Joes is not a good match-up for George Washington evident by the fact they beat them by 18 points in the district (GW’s home floor). The Colonials struggled to put away a bad Billikens yesterday and the rested Hawks are ready to attack and jump on them early in this game. George Washington is 0-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games played on Friday. St Joes is 19-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 games played on Friday. St Josephs is much more physical and that will pay dividends in this game. 

4 Unit Play. #716 Take Wisconsin over Nebraska (9 pm ESPN 2) Nebraska is just not a very good team and they will struggle against the top of the conference. Wisconsin falls into that category as they are playing outstanding basketball winning 11 of their last 13 games. The Cornhuskers have lost five of their last six games with just a win over Rutgers (one of the worst teams in the country). Wisconsin is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games. Wisconsin will pull away late and win this game by double digits and move onto face Maryland. 

4 Unit Play. #786 Take Fresno State over UNLV (9 pm CBSSN) Every year people expect the Rebels to magical make a run in the conference tournament since it is played in their home arena. But this is a sinking ship at the moment coming off a triple overtime win against Air Force and they have a lame duck coach. Fresno State has the talent to win the tournament and they take a step forward in that today with an easy victory. This line opened with UNLV as the favorite but skyrocketed the other way with no end in sight. UNLV had better teams the last couple of years and still did not do anything in the conference tournament. Fresno State has already won in Las Vegas this season and it will happen again on Thursday. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. UNLV is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. 

10 Unit Play. #784 Take New Mexico over Nevada (5:30 pm CBSSN) We used this same game over the weekend and easily hit with the underdog Lobos in a game that was not as close as the final score would indicate. The fact remains that Nevada just cannot shoot the ball well enough this season to beat top teams and will likely be without Marqueze Colman for this game yet again. If the Lobos played with the same effort that Nevada does, they would have won the regular season title. This team has been shaky most of the season but the just have much more talent than does Nevada. New Mexico dominated both of the regular season meetings and it should be no different in Las Vegas. Nevada has never won a conference tournament game in the MWC and the Lobos have had some success in Las Vegas and always bring a big fan base. Nevada is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games. 

4 Unit Play. #546 Take Oregon State over Arizona State (11:30 pm PAC-12 Network) The Sun Devils are a much better team when they play at home compared to road/neutral sites. The Beavers have been playing well down the stretch winning three of their last four games. Would go higher with this play but second leading scorer Try Tinkle is out but they Beavers still have enough to beat the Sun Devils. Arizona State has lost five of their last six games and most of the time when they lose it comes big. The three-point loss to California was a little misleading since they threw in a three point shot at the buzzer. 

These teams played last week and the Clippers rallied from 20+ down to get the win. The Thunder had their rematch with Golden State on tap the next night and we think they were focusing too much on that game in the second half. That was just a bad spot for them and we were on the Clippers in that game, but we are going the other way tonight. OKC is the better team in this matchup, especially with Blake Griffin out of the lineup for the Clips. OKC and LAC are pretty close in the standings so the Thunder know they need this game bad and we think the cream will rise to the top here as the Thunder are well rested with two nights off and just one game played in the last five nights.

The Suns are the worst team in basketball and no way they should be a favorite over anyone right now. In fact, this team is 4-9 ATS when laying four or fewer points this season. Yes, interim coach Earl Watson has this team playing hard and they pulled a couple upsets lately, but this team should suffer in the role of the favorite tonight. The Knicks aren’t very good but they are at least one tier up from the Suns. We had them as a slight favorite in this one, even on a back-to-back. New York is 8-6 ATS on back-to-backs this season so we don’t see the lack of rest as such a big deal. The Suns lost their two best players to injury and while this starting unit has some young talent, there is a lot less established talent than with the visitors tonight and the Knicks still have Carmelo Anthony, who is the best player by far on the court and a player that can dominate a team like the Suns. The wrong team is favored here.

4 Unit Play. #544 Take USC over UCLA (9 pm PAC-12 Network) The Trojans look to win for the third time in this battle of Los Angeles taking place in Las Vegas. USC does not want a loss as it would hinder their NCAA Tournament chances and expect them to take care of business on Wednesday. Both meetings this year were epic blowouts and that just means the Bruins struggle with the quickness and atheism of the Trojans. The Bruins have lost four straight games including a pair of home games to the Oregon schools last week. The vibe is just not very good in Westwood at the moment with fan outrage and poor performance. UCLA is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. USC is 5-1 ATS is their last 6 games played on Wednesday. 

4 Unit Play. #532 Take Charlotte over Rice (6 pm ASN) This appears to be a one team tournament with UAB the heavy favorite but I expect the 49ers to beat the Owls for the third time and move onto the round of 8. The 49ers pounded the Owls twice this season beating them by an average of 21 points per game. Rice has lost three straight games and they have not been competitive in this games. Charlotte lost their last time out to North Texas but still have won three of their last four including a victory against Rice. The Owls are 7-18 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 games. The 49ers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games. 

The oddsmakers have made a big adjustment on this Portland team once they started playing well and this team seems a lot better when underestimated. They have now dumped three straight games and covered in only four of their last eight. This team was on a tear for awhile and they have cooled off big time. And we think there is some very nice value with the underdog Wizards tonight. The Wizards have won four of their last six, even though those two losses have come in their last two. But those were two very tough games and one was a one-point loss to the Pacers. We thought this line should be closer to 3 as we think these teams are pretty even but the Blazers deserve to be a favorite because of the home court. But we expect a close game here and think the Wizards match up well here.

Stock is down on Utah right now as they have lost five of six games. However, four of those games were on the road and one of the two home games was against the Spurs. This is one of the many NBA teams that is a different team at home than on the road. This team is very good at home and we think they bounce back here in what is a very winnable game. The Hawks have been playing well but they are in the fourth game of a five-game road trip and this trip has seemed to go a little too well for them so we think there is a chance they are due for a bad game. Utah already beat Atlanta on the road this season and they have covered in three of the last four meetings. This game is much more important for the Jazz who are just on the outside of the playoff picture and we think they score a big home win tonight.

4 Unit Play. #725 Take Take Gonzaga over Saint Mary’s (9 pm ESPN) I just do not believe Saint Mary’s is good enough to beat Gonzaga three times in one season. The Zags are more battle tested in this tournament and this may be a winner take all game. The Gaels had a major rebuild at the start of the season and they did not really challenge themselves during the nonconference portion of the season and thus their record is a little misleading. Saint Mary’s is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Gonzaga is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on Tuesday. 

4 Unit Play. #532 Take Gonzaga over BYU (11:30 pm ESPN 2) I just believe Gonzaga is the better team in this 2/3 match-up at the WCC Conference Tournament. The Bulldogs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country this season but I believe they are the best team in this conference. They are strong on the interior and if they get anything from their guards they will win this game by close to double digits. BYU struggled against Santa Clara allowing the Broncos to come back despite having a big lead. Gonzaga was in control of both meetings with BYU this season before they got a little close at the end of the game (BYU beat them once). BYU is 16-35 ATS in their last 51 neutral site games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Warriors suffered a rare loss last night to the LA Lakers. This wasn’t a sign of anything wrong with this team or that they are weakened somehow. They simply had a bad game and some cold shooting. This is a long NBA season and all the best teams will have a game like that now and again. The Warriors make less of a habit of it than most. This is one of the most motivated and driven teams we have ever watched in the NBA and there is no doubt they will play a lot better here tonight against another very inferior opponent. Golden State is 11-4 ATS in back-to-backs and they are one of the best in the league in these situations so it doesn’t bother us in the least that they are playing a B-2-B here. In fact, with their stellar B-2-B results and the fact they suffered such a bad loss last night indicates they are due for a big bounce back here. These teams met a couple weeks ago in Orlando and the Warriors won by 16. They shot better than 60 percent from the field in that game and that is a bad sign for Orlando tonight after the Warriors were cold last night. We expect some very hot shooting here from the home team. Orlando is coming off a near 20-point loss to Phoenix last time out. That is probably the worst team in the NBA right now. This team has just not been playing well lately and their defense is horrible and we think GSW will be very motivated tonight after the bad one on Sunday. We will give the Warriors a mulligan and expect a huge bounce back effort from them tonight.

We think this line should have been closer to 8.5 or 9 and think there is some great value here on the underdog. The Cavs just haven’t been a good bet as a favorite and they are just 12-21 ATS when laying seven or more points. Memphis has been playing great basketball lately overall. This team did have two head-scratching losses to the Suns lately. But remove those two games and Memphis is 12-3 in their last 15 when not playing Phoenix, and two of those losses were in OT and one was to the Raptors on the road. The oddsmakers dinged this squad big time when Gasol went down with injury but their offense has been rolling and this squad always plays good defense. So we have an underrated team playing an overrated team with an inflated line and we think Memphis plays this one within double-digits tonight.

Miami is just not the type of team you want to lay big points with. They are 3-6 ATS this season when laying more than seven, and one of those wins was against Phoenix two games ago when the Suns had three open looks at threes late in the game that would have sealed the cover and the Heat made a late three to win by 16 as 13.5-point favorites. Then another was last game where they played this same Philly team on Friday and covered by ½ point. But when two teams play home-and-home games like this the following game normally favors the losing team. It’s hard to blow a team out twice in such a short span of time, and the losing team will normally be able to make adjustments and play a stronger overall game. Even though the Sixers have some injuries now this is still a team made up of NBA players and they should put up a fight against a familiar opponent and we have a feeling the game will be even closer than the one Friday night.

Portland has been playing really well for the last month or so but since this team has been getting some buzz the odds have been overadjusted on some of their games, and we think that is the case here as we had this game handicapped at Detroit -3.5 and we would have leaned to the home team at that number. So we think there is a ton of value in this current line. This is the last game of a six-game road trip for Portland and they have lost the last two games, so you can tell they are ready to get home. Detroit has lost two straight as well but those were both on the road and one was to the Spurs. Before that they had won and covered four straight, including three double-digit wins (including one vs. Toronto) and also a eight-point road win at Cleveland. This Detroit team is very solid and even though they come in on a back-to-back they are 7-6 ATS in these situations this season so we don’t think it will be a problem.

Dallas has covered the last four meetings, and the fourth meeting was a push. We think they are on track for a comfortable win here on Sunday. Dallas has won four out of their last six games and they covered in all the wins. They are playing very well right now and are in much better form than Denver at the moment. Denver has lost six of their last eight both straight up and against the spread. They are missing Danilo Gallinari, and he is their best shooter and his loss really hurts this team. The Mavs are 12-6 ATS when laying small points (five points or less), so they normally do very well in these situations. They have also covered in seven of the last nine meetings in Denver.

We love the way the Clippers have been playing lately and this team seems determined to make up for their slow start on the season. They just keep winning and covering lines, and the bookies have been slow to adjust their lines for this team. LA is well rested here as they have had two nights off and the Hawks come into this one on a back-to-back (6-9 ATS on back-to-backs). The Clippers have done their best work this season as a marginal favorite and they are 14-6 ATS as a favorite of less than six points. Most of those games are here at Staples Center against weaker opponents like is the case tonight. We thought this line should have been closer to 7.5 or 8.0, and we think there is some great value with the home team tonight as we think a rested Clippers team takes care of business comfortably in this one.

4 Unit Play. #643 Take New Mexico +2.5 over Nevada (10 pm ROOT Sports) The Lobos are falling apart at the seams but they are healthier than the Wolf Pack at the moment. New Mexico pounded the Pack in the first game of the season winning by 12 points and that score is misleading since it was a pounding in Albuquerque. Nevada has been playing a soft schedule of late and they have had trouble putting these bad teams away. These team will likely meet against in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament next week in Las Vegas, but I expect the Lobos behind Elijah Brown to earn the regular season sweep on Saturday.

Both teams play a back-to-back here but this will be much tougher for Brooklyn as they played an OT game in the high altitude of Denver and now have to travel on the road to take on a Minnesota team that has been playing well at home, covering in seven of their last 10 games here. Even though these teams have similar records the Timberwolves are a step above Brooklyn talent-wise, and the Nets are in the midst of a very long road trip and with this back-to-back they have to be feeling the pain of the trip here. Both teams have been atrocious on defense lately and the pace here should be swift. We think both teams will get their points but in the end we think the Timberwolves win this one by seven or more in a high-scoring affair. Minnesota has a very strong history in this series as they are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Minnesota and 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings overall.

Boston is having a fine season and they have been a great bet, but we think they are in a tough spot against a much better Cavs team tonight. Cleveland has revenge in this one for a one-point loss here on this same court about a month ago. Cleveland led that one by 15 at one point and the Celtics rallied for the win. But Cleveland had won and covered the previous three meetings pretty comfortably. In fact, they have won five of the last six meetings and would have covered tonight’s line in every one of them. We think the Cavs match up favorably here and they should be very motivated tonight. Boston has done most of their good work lately at home but they have dropped three of four on the road and they failed to cover in all those losses. This price is more than fair for Cleveland and we expect a double-digit win.

4 Unit Play. #572 Take USC +3 over Oregon (4 pm PAC-12 Network) The Trojans need this game to ensure they make the NCAA Tournament this season and expect them to complete the weekend sweep of the Oregon schools on Saturday afternoon at the Galen Center. The Ducks have a chance to win the conference outright but I just do not believe they will be able to accomplish that. They struggle for most of the game on Wednesday to put away UCLA and the Trojans pounded the Bruins twice this season.

The Timberwolves are trending heavily to the over lately.  Ten of their last 12 games have gone over the posted total and a reason for that is that this team has given up any effort on defense. Six of their last nine games have seen the opponent score 110+, and we expect Milwaukee to have a big game on offense and they can basically pick their score tonight. The Bucks are in fine form offensively and recently put up 128 on Houston. They have also given up 100+ in six straight games on defense. We think points will come in bunches tonight and we think both teams get well over the century mark and we think this line is too low for the home team. We think Milwaukee will have a huge night on offense and the T-Wolves will make up the difference to get this one over the posted number.

Not to take anything away from Golden State, who is having a season for the ages and is just keeps finding ways to get the job done on a nightly basis, but we think that the Thunder will come to compete here on Thursday and we expect this one to be a very close game. The Warriors are going to drop at least one game at home this season, and it will probably come from one of the top teams in the west. These teams met on Saturday in OKC and the Thunder played a great game but lost in the final seconds of OT on a Steph Curry miracle three. But they had led for most of the game up until that point and were up by as many as 14 at one point in the game. That sets up a major revenge spot for the visitors here. While we don’t normally use revenge as a major handicapping factor, we do think it comes into play in certain situations, and this is certainly one of those. That last game was less than a week ago so the wounds for OKC will still be fresh and they will have a major motivational edge here while this is just another big game for the Warriors, who get their best shot from opponents every night. And we really liked what we saw from OKC in that game even though they lost. They had a major edge in rebounding and points in the paint, and it was the sharpshooting from the Warriors, especially in the fourth quarter and OT, that did them in. But the losing team in these situations is able to make adjustments and we expect a hard-fought game from the visitors here, who are be getting a very nice underdog number. We expected the Thunder to lose last night in LA, and they blew a big lead. But we thought they would be looking ahead to this game and we think they come out very focused and determined tonight.

4 Unit Play. #558 Take Missouri State over Drake (9:30 pm ESPN 3) This line is soft considering how bad Drake played in MVC play this season. The Bears beat the Bulldogs twice this season and expect them to complete the trifecta in Saint Louis on Thursday. Missouri State has some quality wins this season and they will move onto the second round of the conference tournament. 

4 Unit Play. #542 Take Arizona over California (9 pm ESPN) The Wildcats are coming off a disappointing road trip to Utah and Colorado dropping both games. But despite that they have won six of their last eight games and still are a very tough out at home. They need to win both games to ensure they receive a first round bye in the conference tournament and I expect them to take care of business against Cal tonight. Cal is playing outstanding basketball of late winning seven straight games but only two of them came on the road. This will be the most difficult road game they face in PAC-12 play this season and expect them to not be up to the challenge. Arizona needs it more and they get it by close to double digits. 

Will take a shot with the Suns again here on Thursday night. Yes, Phoenix stinks. But the more they lose the bigger the odds get, and that creates value. The Heat are a strong defensive team. But they win a lot of low-scoring games. Hard to trust them to cover the big number here tonight. In fact, this team is just 1-6 ATS when laying seven or more points this season. The Heat have played down to their level of opposition a lot this season at home, and that is why they have had such a bad ATS mark against lousy teams here. The Suns are coming off a really bad effort last time in Charlotte and that loss was one of the worst of the season. But this is an NBA team and they have an interim coach in Earl Watson who will get a better effort out of his team tonight. Of course the Heat are without Chris Bosh right now and that hurts this team’s chances to cover the big number. We don’t think either team will do anything special on offense and expect a low-scoring game here, which makes the points with the underdog all the more valuable.

10 Unit Play. #770 Take Fresno State over Colorado State (11 pm CBSSN) This line should be double digits. Colorado State is coming off a tough loss to Nevada in overtime and going back on the road again will do them in. I feel Fresno State is playing the best basketball of anyone in the MWC at the moment and they have a good chance to win the MWC Tournament next week. This team is starting to get healthy and will enter this game having won four straight games. They also have the best player on the court in Marvelle Harris and he is the reason why they can win it all next week in Las Vegas. The Rams are not performed well on the road this season and they have lost four of their last five games (none were against top teams in the league). Colorado State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Fresno State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. 

This is a big look-ahead spot for the Thunder, who play Golden State tomorrow on TNT. That game on Saturday was one of the best of the year and the Thunder lost it in heartbreaking fashion. They have to be licking their chops to get another chance in the Bay Area tomorrow and this game is probably an afterthought to them. The Clippers have been sneaky good lately. They just keep winning games and covering spreads while waiting for Blake Griffin to rejoin the team. They have played well in this series and have covered the last two meetings. This team is 9-2 ATS as a small favorite this season and they normally get the job done in these situations. The Thunder are one of the worst ATS teams this season and we think that this is another spot where they are being overrated.

We are getting a good line here because the Lakers are on a back-to-back and because they are the Lakers, a team the public doesn’t have much faith in after they have lost eight of their last nine games. But we liked them last night at home against Brooklyn and we like them again here in this spot. This is just too many points for a 23-37 team like Denver to be laying tonight. Denver not only stinks but they are really banged up right now. Gallinari is out here. Faried is questionable and we think he will be sidelined with lower back pain tonight. A couple other key players will likely suit up and play but maybe not at 100%. With the players on the court tonight the Nuggets aren’t a whole lot better than these Lakers. LA is 8-5 ATS on back-to-backs and this team is young and athletic and we don’t see fatigue being a big factor tonight. The Lakers won the last meeting here earlier in the season and we would not be surprised to see them compete for the win here tonight.

The Pacers have lost three straight. But when you look at who they played they lost a hard-fought game in Cleveland, lost to a surging Portland team that is beating everyone right now and they lost a heartbreaker by one to a very solid Charlotte team. This game tonight is a great chance for them to get back on track and we think they bring their A Game tonight, and a motivated Indiana team is much better than Milwaukee if both teams are playing their best. Because of these losses the Pacers are a bit underrated right now and the Bucks are coming off a win against Houston, so they are getting too much credit. We are not that impressed with the Houston win and Milwaukee has been a big disappointment this season. Indiana is a very solid defensive team and we think they will flex their muscles in that regard tonight and they have the better offense in this matchup, too.

These are two of the Top 5 defenses in the NBA for points allowed and you have to love a total in the 190s here in what looks to be a very low-scoring game. These teams met in Utah in November and the total reached only 182, and we think we could see that same type of game tonight. The Jazz have not played well on offense the last few games, averaging only around 86 per in their last three. This team does not play as well on the road as they do at home. Remember, they are only 9-19 on the road this season. We think both teams will struggle to score but we think Utah will really struggle and expect them to finish around 92 or fewer points. We see the Raptors, a much better overall team and a very good home team, winning comfortably in a low-scoring game. Toronto has covered in five straight meetings here and we see more of the same results on Wednesday.

4 Unit Play. #560 Take New Mexico over San Diego State (9:30 pm CBSSN) This is a one bid league and winner take all in the upcoming conference tournament in two weeks in Sin City. With the Aztecs already winning the regular season title this game means much more to New Mexico in hopes of improving their seeding. This is a game the Lobos really want since they got jobbed by the refs in the first meetings with a terrible call late in the second half. San Diego State just does not have the offensive firepower this season and New Mexico has the best player on the floor. The Lobos are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a double digit loss at home in their previous game. Expect another bounce back on Tuesday. 

4 Unit Play. #551 Take Indiana over Iowa (9 pm ESPN) The Hawkeyes are in free fall at the moment and the wrong team is favored tonight in Iowa City. The Hoosiers need just one win in their last two games to clinch the Big 10 regular season and they will get it tonight. Iowa has lost four of their last five games with just a 4-point home victory against Minnesota as their only bright spot. Teams are starting to figure out the Hawkeyes and only Mike Gesell is playing well at the moment. Indiana has a variety of ways to beat you on the offense end and there will be a celebration tonight for Tom Crean and company. Iowa is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. 

This is way too many points for the Hornets to be laying tonight, even against a team like the Suns. Charlotte has lost two of three, so they are not in good form right now. This is the first home game for them after a long road trip, and that is always a trouble spot for big favorites. The Hornets have not been good as a big favorite this season as they are 3-6 ATS when laying five or more points. They are just 3-5 ATS at home against sub-.500 teams this season. The Suns should come into this game with a lot of confidence after knocking off Memphis at home last time out. They also played the Spurs and Warriors very tough recently and covered in both of those contests. They have had two nights off to prepare for this game so they should be primed to play their best. Phoenix has a very strong history in this series as they are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Charlotte. They have won the last two meetings (and six of the last seven), including one this season in January in Phoenix by nine points. We feel the road team is in a nice position to succeed tonight and they will keep this one within double digits.

4 Unit Play. #531 Take Kentucky over Florida (7 pm ESPN) The Gators are done and they are not making the NCAA Tournament this season. They have lost three straight games and the current players have yet to gel with the new coach. The Wildcats are not losing two games in a row and they must win out to ensure a piece of the regular season championship. Florida is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. 

Love the Grizzlies in this spot. The Nuggets were playing well for a bit but a bad team like this often can’t keep things going for too long. And now they have lost four of their last five. All those losses were in winnable games. Thankfully they won in LA against the Clippers in what was just an off game for the home team so that has kept this spread honest tonight. The Grizzlies had their off game last time out in a loss in Phoenix. They will be primed to not repeat that performance here. Media reports indicate this was a game the team is embarrassed about and we expect them to get back to the great play we have seen recently from this team. Before that game they had covered four of five. This team lost Gasol likely for the season and betting markets responded too harshly to that news as this is still a very strong team and they have the players to make up for the loss of Gasol and they still play a defensive-oriented game and physical style. Memphis has always done well in this kind of spot as a small dog or favorite and we expect them to get a comfortable win tonight.

10 Unit Play. #719 Take Kansas over Texas (9 pm ESPN) Unlike Oklahoma, Kansas is not soft and playing these road games in hostile environments means everything to this team (even more the NCAA Tournament success). This is just too big of a gauntlet for Texas to run and they have already earned a berth into the NCAA Tournament this season. Beating Oklahoma was great, but the Sooners gave away that game letting Texas close on a 25-5 run. Again Oklahoma is soft, Kansas is not. The Jayhawks have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games. 

These teams played a few nights ago in Philly and the Sixers hung pretty tough in that game and the biggest lead the Wizards had all game was 10 points. Both teams are on a back-to-back here so Washington does not have an advantage there. These teams also met earlier in the month and the Sixers kept the game within this spread threshold. The fact that these teams will have seen each other three times this month really bodes well for the underdog here, especially since the Wizards covered both meetings. Not only have the oddsmakers pumped up this line a bit larger than it should be, but the Sixers will be able to make adjustments and learn from what they did wrong last time. The comeback against Orlando last night came up a bit short but we think that momentum carries over here tonight.

Miami is underrated right now. Oddsmakers have overstated some of their injuries and this team has had some nice value lately. They are 3-2 since the all-star break with the losses coming against Golden State (in a very hard-fought game) and at Boston. They covered in four of those five games. They do come in on a back-to-back but they played a very early game on Saturday so they had more time to rest. They have the players to fill in for the injured guys and they play a strong defensive system that gives them a chance to compete every game. Miami has a strong history in this series and have covered in eight of the last nine meetings. They won each of those games that they covered. The Knicks have been overvalued at home where they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. We think the Heat defense will rise to the occasion with a big game tonight.

10 Unit Play. #836 Take Wisconsin over Michigan (6 pm BTN) This game got bumped off of CBS but that just makes it that much stronger for Wisconsin. The Badgers are playing like the second best team in the conference at the moment only behind Michigan State. They are winning home and away and also winning when they play good or play bad. Michigan is coming off two straight road losses and I just do not believe they are playing well at the moment. Their score against Northwestern was misleading and much closer than the nine-point margin would indicate. But the main reason for this selection is that this is just not a typical Michigan team. The Wolverines rely so much on the three point shot and they just do not have the shooters like they have in year’s past. Coach Gard is just moments away from being named permanent head coach and this Badger team has responded in a great way. The Badgers have lost just one game since January 13th and they have the ability to score on Michigan in a variety of ways. Wisconsin is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Big 10 games. 73% of the overnight money is on Wisconsin and it is for very good reason. The line should be 8.5 and we will pound this short number. 

Just don’t think that this Orlando team should be laying this many points to anyone. There is value in the visiting Sixers tonight. Orlando just hasn’t been good in the favorite role this season and they are 1-6 ATS when laying five or more points. The Magic are just 6-19 since the new year and that is not the type of team you want to lay big chalk with, even against a team like Philly. But this is a very winnable road game for the Sixers. These teams played less than a week ago and the game was very close throughout. The Magic finally pulled away in the fourth quarter and won by nine (they outscored the Sixers by five in the fourth) but it was a close game throughout, and since these teams played so recently we think that gives the underdog a better chance since they will be able to make adjustments.

4 Unit Play. #825 Take Duke over Pittsburgh (2 pm CBS) Would go much higher on this game if I knew for sure Grayson Allen would not be punished for past game transgressions. That being said Pitt has taken a major setback in the last couple of years and will enter this game having lost 4 of their last 6 games. Pitt has struggled against the top teams in the ACC and today will be no different. Duke has won 6 of their last 7 games. 

Memphis has covered in four of their last five games, and we think they are a bit undervalued here as well. Three of those covers came against the Lakers (twice) and the Nets, so this team has done what it takes to beat up on bad teams, winning those games by an average of nearly 15 points. Now they face a team possibly even worse than those clubs. Even though Gasol is out of the lineup now this team still plays strong defense and physical basketball. They have shown they can score on bad defensive teams (they averaged 120 in the two games against the Lakers and put up 109 against Brooklyn and Minnesota). Memphis has been playing extremely well lately and a loss at Toronto and a couple OT losses vs. Portland and Dallas are their only recent blemishes. They won’t slip up against this horrible Suns team.

Just have to take a flier on the Thunder here as we thought this line would be pickem so we have to take the points here as we think there is a very good chance that they could win this one tonight. Golden State has shown that aren’t immortal on the road. They were blown out by Portland on this road trip and they have covered in only two of four games. We think this is another inflated line. OKC and San Antonio are considered the two biggest threats to GSW, and this is their first road game against either team. This is probably the biggest game of the regular season for OKC and we really think they have a great chance to win here. Golden State has covered only one of the last seven meetings in OKC, and this is a very public line. Most times public bettors can just blindly take the Warriors, but not this time.

No Derrick Rose tonight. No Butler. Of course, no Noah. Without the core of the team this Chicago team is below average. Heck, even with these guys in the lineup this team has been a big disappointment. Even though the Blazers lost last time out vs. Houston this team had won six straight prior to that loss, including a blowout at home against the Warriors. This team has been underrated all season and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now and really coming together as a team. The Bulls have been one of the worst ATS teams all season long and this team keeps getting too much respect from the oddsmakers because of the name on the jersey. Unless Rose miraculously plays this line is a gift and even if he does take the court we expect the road team to control this one and score the pretty easy win.

10 Unit Play. #569 Take South Carolina over Mississippi State (2:30 pm SECN) The Gamecocks have a gaudy record and they are not as good as their 23-5 record would indicate but they have enough talent to beat Mississippi State in Starkville. Carolina has won two straight games against teams that are ahead of Mississippi State in the standing and already beat the Bulldogs by double digits this season on January 26th. The Bulldogs are improving under first year coach Ben Howland but this will take a major rebuild and moving to the top of the standings will have to wait a couple of years. Mississippi State already has home losses to Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia. Yes, they played A & M tough this week but this is more a statement of how far the Aggies have fallen compared to how much the Bulldogs have improved. Carolina has not only been winning games they have been covering the spread as well going 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games. Mississippi State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on Saturday. The better team just has to win on Saturday and that will happen easily. 

4 Unit Play. #544 Take Miami over Louisville (2 pm ESPN 3) Just do not believe Louisville has top end talent this year. Throw in the fact that their season will come to an end next week and their schedule is too difficult to win the regular season title. Miami has a great chance to win the regular season crown but this is a must win game for them to accomplish that feat. The Hurricanes have won six of their last seven games including a victory against Virginia last Monday. If they can beat the Cavaliers, they can certainly beat the Cardinals. Miami is 13-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 home games. Louisville is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. 

This Sacramento team is fools’ gold. They will string a few good games together and give bettors confidence then they will stink things up on the court for an even longer winning streak. They had a recent three-game winning streak, but that included two wins over Denver and one over Philly. But they were embarrassed last time out against the Spurs on this same court and now this looks like the start of a losing streak because the team that just beat down the Spurs right after the All-Star Break comes to town looking for a bounce back after one of their worst performances of the season. Last time out the Clippers lost at home to Denver, 87-81, as an 11-point favorite. Even though we had Denver in that game and thought it would be a close one, we didn’t expect the Clippers to struggle like that. It was obviously just an off game, which even the best teams in the NBA have. But they should be in good shape to bounce back here. They are the much better and consistent team here. Sacramento is one of the worst defensive teams in the league and they play at a fast pace, which plays to the Clips strengths. LA has been great in bouncing back after a loss (6-0 ATS) and we think this line is way too short tonight.

The last three meetings have all been Washington blowouts, and the smallest margin of victory has been 12 points. The largest was 29. That 12-point win was earlier in the month. Even though that game looked somewhat close, the Wizards jumped out to a 20-point lead at the end of the first quarter and led by as many as 25 before taking their foot off the gas in the second half. But we still think this one is a major mismatch. Philly is getting too much credit for a non-existent home-court advantage. The Wizards are desperate here and need to start racking up wins to make the playoffs. They can’t afford to overlook teams like this even with a team like Cleveland next up on deck on Sunday. But if the Wizards win this one (which we think they will do easy), can manage an upset of Cleveland at home then they play Philly again Monday. This is a real chance to gain some confidence and get a little win streak going. Washington has covered in five of the last six meetings and we thought this line should have been double digits tonight.

Revenge isn’t normally a big handicapping factor for us when it comes to the NBA, but we think it will come into play big time here tonight in Indiana. Earlier this month, on this same floor, the Hornets came in and embarrassed Indiana with a 22-point win in the first meeting of the season between these teams. There is no doubt Indiana has had this game circled since then. Indiana has been playing very well lately. They will come into this one with a lot of confidence after winning five of their last seven, including a road win at OKC. Charlotte had won five straight recently but they had a momentum killer last time out in a loss at Cleveland where they played very flat the entire game. Once a big streak like that is snapped teams tend to go back to their normal nightly effort. That’s why wins and losses often come in waves in the NBA. Charlotte is one of those teams that is very good at home and really lousy at home. They are just 10-18 on the road. Indiana is 18-9 at home. Indiana has also been very good against teams with winning records when at home as they are 10-4 ATS in these situations. We expect this to be a comfortable win for the home squad tonight.