Sports Picks & Predictions

Atlanta is in a downturn right now and they have they have lost three of five and have covered in just one of those games. They are in a real tough spot here on a back-to-back after getting blown out in Miami last night. Now they have to play this back-to-back on the road and against a much better team. We don’t expect things to go too well for them. Houston is 9-2 ATS this season when laying nine or more points so they usually excel in these types of situations. The weary Hawks probably will not be able to keep up with the Rockets energy tonight since Houston had the night off Wednesday.

4 Unit Play. #741 Take Marshall over Southern Miss (8 pm) The Herd are coming off their worst performance of the season last time out getting run out of the gym by UTEP at home. They just could not make a shot especially from the three-point line and UTEP shot 58% from the field. That was just an anomaly and playing the worst team in the league should get them back on track. Marshall can score points at will and I just do not believe the Golden Eagles will be able to keep pace with them. This big of a spread on the road tells me these are not even close to comparable teams. Southern Miss lost by 44 points last time out to a so-so UAB team. Marshall is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a losing record. 

4 Unit Play. #714 Take Charlotte over FAU (7 pm) The Owls are one of the worst teams in Conference USA and Charlotte should win this game by double digits at home. The 49ers have won three of their last four games. The Owls have lost four of their last five games including their last two home games. This will be the second straight road game for them and I just do not see them being competitive in these games. Charlotte is 12-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 home games as a favorite. 72% of the money is coming in on Charlotte and we certainly concur with that. 

4 Unit Play. #723 Take Michigan State over Nebraska (7 pm ESPN) The Spartans need all the wins get at this points to make sure they keep their NCAA Tournament streak alive. Most of Nebraska’s game have gone down to the wire and this will be a close game as well. In the end I just expect Michigan State to dig deep and find a way to win it. The Spartans have won 4 of their last 7 games against Nebraska. Michigan State is 15-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games played on Thursday. Nebraska is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. 

We like to back teams off a big loss and that is the case the Clippers find themselves in tonight after an embarrassing 46-point loss to the Warriors. The Clippers have had three nights off after that game and they are in a pretty much must-win situation tonight after losing four of their last five. But that was against a pretty tough schedule and we think they will take full advantage of this lesser opponent tonight. Blake Griffin hasn’t been that effective since his return but he is getting back in basketball shape and should be a beast until Chris Paul gets back closer to the playoffs. They played well without Paul in the past and we think this team will start to notch more wins. And they will certainly take this game very seriously after that drubbing by the Warriors last time out.

4 Unit Play. #575 Take Nevada over Utah State (9 pm) Playing in Logan for much of this century has been a daunting task but that is no longer the case. This team has fallen off of a cliff since Stew Morrill retired and their current coach is already on the hot seat in year two. The Aggies have lost four of their last five games and now are set to face the best team in the league tonight. Nevada is far and away the best team in the league and they already have road wins at Boise State and New Mexico. They have won six of their last seven games and are the much better offensive team in this match-up. Nevada is 18-8 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 26 games as a favorite. Utah State is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 

4 Unit Play. #591 SE Missouri State over Jacksonville State (8 pm) We will gladly grab the points in match-up tonight in the OVC. Both teams have similar overall and conference records. The Redhawks have won four straight games and I just do not see them getting blown out in this game. The Gamecocks are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Timberwolves are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now and have won five of six. We are always looking for a good spot to go against the Cavaliers, who are 19-26-2 ATS this season and not nearly the club that won the championship last year. Not only are they getting their best shot from opponents on a nightly basis but they also are facing overinflated odds by the bookies. Minnesota has been a great play as a big dog and they are 5-1 ATS this season when getting six or more points. They showed some clutch play last game out in the OT win over Orlando and we expect them to come into this game very confident tonight.

The Magic are nearing full strength on their roster and we had them handicapped as a small favorite in this matchup and expect them to notch the home win here tonight. The Pacers are not a good road team and they have only seven wins away from home compared to eight home wins for the Magic. The Pacers have also had trouble in covering on the road against sub-.500 teams and they are 4-9 ATS in these situations this season. The Magic have played very well for two games in a row and they have covered in both contests, and they should have won last time but failed in OT at Minnesota. We think there is nice value in this line tonight.

4 Unit Play. #548 Take NC State over Syracuse (7 pm ESPN 2) The Orange have shown some signs of life of late but most of their damage has come in the Carrier Dome not on the road. Three of their next four games are on the road and I believe they will lose their next four games (home game is against Virginia). Syracuse has yet to win a conference road this season. Syracuse has not covered a spread on the road in six straight games as well. NC State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. 

We think that the Hornets are a better team than Portland and we are more than happy to get this many points for a game we think the Hornets can win straight up. The Hornets have lost four straight but they faced a pretty tough schedule there and this team is better than that record might indicate. And they were not embarrassed in any of the games, and were competitive in most. That just ups the must-win factor in this game and this is a much more crucial game for the Hornets than it is for Portland. Charlotte has covered in four of the last six meetings, and we think they have a great chance to win this one tonight.

4 Unit Play. #758 Take DePaul over Georgetown (9 pm FS1) The Hoyas are just not good enough to be giving this many points on the road. The Blue Demons have won just one conference game this season but they have played a road heavy schedule thus far and I just do not see them getting blown out by Georgetown tonight in Rosemont. The Hoyas are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Wizards have won and covered in the last four meetings in this series. The Knicks had the night off on Monday but they played in a four OT game on Sunday and that is like playing an extra half of basketball and that fatigue will be a factor here. The Wizards are really underrated right now, and that is obvious by the fact that they have covered nine straight games entering this matchup. And they are not just covering since they have won all but one of those games. This team has been really good at home where they are 19-6 SU on the season and 17-8 ATS. This team can put up points in a hurry and we think the weary Knicks will not be able to keep up.

6 Unit Play. #719 Take Central Michigan over Buffalo (7 pm) I like playing the Chippewas as an underdog as they usually go on a scoring run at some point to get back into most games. The Bulls are just not as strong of team as they have been in past years. Central Michigan has won three straight games and they are just playing better at the moment. Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Central Michigan has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. 

4 Unit Play. #713 Take Ohio over Western Michigan (6 pm) This line has come crashing down from its opening on Monday night but I do not see why. Homecourt means a lot but Ohio beat this same team by 31 points earlier this season and the Broncos have lost four straight games. Ohio is without Antonio Campbell but they have been playing without him of late and still winning some games. Saul Phillips is a Bo Ryan disciple and he knows the importance of winning the regular season title especially in the very competitive MAC. Western Michigan is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games played on Tuesday. 

The Magic have covered in three of the last five meetings. They may get Evan Fournier back tonight, and he could be a huge boost to this club. Yes, Orlando is coming in on a back-to-back and even played in OT last night, but this team is young and we don’t think that fatigue will be a huge issue. This is just too many points for a Minnesota team that has been inconsistent. The Magic are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Minnesota and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall. They are also 8-2 ATS when getting eight or more points this season and they are normally a strong play as a big dog.

10 Unit Play. #512 Take Notre Dame over Duke (7 pm ESPN) The Blue Devils continue to be way overvalued and we will fade them whenever we can on the road. Duke got a gift win on Saturday against Wake Forest but I just do not believe that will turn around their recent slump. This team has talent but they do not play as a cohesive unit and that will be their downfall on Monday in South Bend. The Irish need a win in the worst way after a recent two game slump but returning home should benefit them greatly. Duke just does not have the same magic without Coach K and they will struggle to do any damage the rest of the season. Duke is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on Monday. 

4 Unit Play. #852 Take Michigan State over Michigan (1 pm CBS) We have seen how much homecourt means in the Big 10 and the Spartans are desperate for a win today against their in-state rival. Michigan State has lost three straight games and might not make the NCAA Tournament unless they can put together a winning record in Big 10 play. Michigan has been playing better of late but they are taking a step up in competition today at a place they have not had much success in recent years. The Spartans won the only meeting last year between these teams by 16 points in Ann Arbor. Michigan is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Michigan State has covered the spread 4 straight games as a home favorite. 

We have gone against the Clippers in this matchup just about every time these teams have played the last couple seasons with great results. But our gut tells us that this one will be different tonight. The Warriors haven’t been good against the big lines this season at 13-20 ATS when favored by 10 or more, and the Clippers have had three nights off heading into this game and are in a prime spot to perform well tonight. With the recent domination against the Clips we think the Warriors might not come out with the same intensity that we are used to seeing when these teams meet. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

The Pistons have had a rare four nights off here, and at this point in the NBA season that is huge. Lots of teams are worn out right now and that is why you have seen so many upsets lately. Not only is Miami coming in on a back-to-back, but this team is playing its third game in four nights. Miami has won six straight but we just don’t see how they have much left in the tank tonight. Detroit has won three of four and they are in pretty good form right now. The Pistons have a clear injury sheet tonight, while the Heat are pretty banged up, and Whiteside is questionable, one of the Heat’s most crucial players. We think the Pistons will have a lot of energy on defense tonight while we expect the Heat to struggle on the offensive end.

Not only has Charlotte won and covered the last two games, but they are getting the Kings in a real bad spot here. This is Game 5 of an eight-game road trip and this will be the Kings third game in four nights and a back-to-back. And this is a super back-to-back because the Kings played in OT in their last two games. We don’t think they will have much left in the tank here. The Hornets have had a tough schedule lately and they have lost three straight but those were all tough games and tonight they have a great chance to get back on the winning track in a big way against a team that has to be running on fumes tonight.

10 Unit Play. #606 Take San Diego State Aztecs over Colorado State Rams (6 pm CBSSN) The Aztecs are just a different team at home and I look for them to win their third straight home game. San Diego State is coming off an embarrassing lost at Air Force and I expect them to take out their frustrations on the Rams Saturday afternoon. The Rams last two losses have been blowouts and I believe San Diego State is a better team that New Mexico and Fresno State. The Aztecs have won four straight in the series and nine of the last 11 get-togethers. San Diego State is 14-4 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 20 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. 

4 Unit Play. #882 Take Illinois Chicago -2 over Northern Kentucky (8 pm ESPN 3) The Flames got run out of the gym last time out against Valparaiso but it should be much more competitive tonight at home against Northern Kentucky. UIC has won three of their last four games including two of them on the road. The Norse are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. UIC is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Magic have been great as decent-sized underdogs this season and currently stand at 9-3 ATS when getting more than seven points, and we think they are playing a vulnerable team tonight. Boston has won only one of their last four games and they are not in great form despite a win over Houston last time out. This will be the Celtics third game in four nights while the Magic have had two nights off to rest. Both teams come into this game banged up, but the lack of rest should hurt Boston more in that regard. You just always have to look at the Magic when they are getting big points as they normally put up a heck of a fight in these situations.

The Kings have been one of the better road teams against the spread at 13-11 ATS on the season. We think that they are getting too many points here once again tonight. Sacramento is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams, and we think they match up well here. Sacramento has covered three straight games and they should come into this game with a lot of confidence after road wins over Detroit and Cleveland in their last two games. They had the night off while the Pacers are on a back-to-back here. The Pacers are one of the worst in the NBA in these situations at 1-7 SU and ATS!

4 Unit Play. #754 Take Long Beach State over Fullerton (10:30 pm) The 49ers have played a brutal schedule this season but they will make some noise in Big West play and will enter this game having won two straight games. The Titans have lost two straight games and this will be their third road games in their last four games. Fullerton is 9-23 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning home record. 

Denver has played well lately but this team is not worthy of being a seven-point favorite over any NBA team.  The Suns are playing well too but this team is more under the radar, but they have covered in five of their last six games and they should play their A Game here tonight in what is a very winnable game. The Nuggets haven’t been big favorites too often this season, but when they are they are just 1-2 ATS and we expect a close game here.

4 Unit Play. #762 Take Niagara over Manhattan (7 pm) Both teams have similar records but the Purple Eagles are much better in conference play as they look to even up their record at .500 in MAAC play. They also have revenge as the Jaspers beat them earlier this season as one of their two conference wins. The Jaspers have lost three straight games and all three of them have been blowouts and that is how we see this game going as well. Manhattan is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games. 

The Sixers are on a back to back and they will be without Embiid tonight. They have not been good at all in back to back situations and are just 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS. They got a home win over the undermanned Clippers last night and that has kept this line down but we thought that this one should be closer to 14. The Bucks haven’t been playing well. They had a recent five-game losing streak. But the NBA is streaky and they dominated Houston last time out and that should give them a lot of positive momentum that will continue here on Wednesday night. One of those losses during that losing streak was in this same building to this same Sixers team. Not only does this create a great revenge spot, but Embiid had a monster game there and he won’t be on the floor tonight. We see a very different outcome tonight. The Bucks haven’t been a great ATS team thus far but we expect that to change and they should be in the plus by the end of the season.

5 Unit Play. #585 Take Greensboro over Wofford (7 pm ESPN 3) Simply looking at the records of both teams (overall & conference) tells us all we need to know about this selection. The Spartans have won six straight games and should challenge for a conference championship come March. The Terriers have lost three of their last five games and have been a bottom feeder in the Southern Conference for most of their existence. Greensboro is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Greensboro already has three road wins in conference this season and will complete the superfecta on Wednesday.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

Minnesota has won and covered both meetings this season and they match up extremely well here. They have had their share of bumps in the road this season but their six road wins is only one less than the Suns at home, and the Timberwolves are playing a lot better lately, having won five of their last seven games overall. The Suns are a scrappy team that we have played in certain spots as a big underdog, but this team is 0-4 ATS as a small favorite this season and we just think that this is a game the Wolves have a big talent edge in and we expect them to take this game seriously as they don’t have a lot of room for error after their slow start to the season.

Utah is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings and we love them getting points tonight and think that the wrong team is favored here. The Jazz have to play in the high altitude here and they have played a heavy schedule lately but they are 7-4 SU and 5-5-1 ATS in back-to-backs this season so we aren’t too worried about that since this team has shown they can play in these situations. This will be the third game in four nights for Denver as well so that kind of evens things out, and Utah has a health advantage tonight with several Denver players banged up. Utah is just playing great basketball lately and we think they have a great chance to win this one outright.

6 Unit Play. #740 Take Syracuse over Wake Forest (8 pm ACCN) The Orange still have a shot at making the NCAA Tournament since they play in a loaded ACC. That being said this is a must win game to keep their at-large hopes alive. Wake Forest is playing their second straight road game and that usually catches up with teams especially fringe tournament teams in the ACC. All of Syracuse’s conference wins have been blowouts and this is just a much better team when playing at home. Wake Forest is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games following a victory in their previous game. Syracuse has covered the spread in 4 straight home games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports.

The Sixers covered in the last meeting last season but the Clippers had covered in eight straight meetings in this series before that last game (the Clips won by six against a nine-point spread). LA should get Blake Griffin back tonight. Although he won’t play full minutes he should give this team a huge boost both emotionally and on the floor as well. You can kind of tell that this team played like they knew the cavalry was coming last time out in a 10-point win at Atlanta as this team just has not historically done well with Griffin and Chris Paul out of the lineup. We think their star will give them a big boost tonight and Embiid is not expected to play for Philly and they are not as strong without him.

Love the Bucks in this spot. They have lost five straight but all that means is that the value is back with this team. They are much better than their recent record and we think they will bring their A Game back at home. Four of the losses have been on the road. Their one home loss was to a Philly team that has been playing really well. This is a revenge spot for the Bucks since these teams played recently in Houston, a Bucks blowout loss. But the Bucks are 7-3 ATS this season at home against winning teams, and we think they play really well here tonight and we give them a more than decent chance for the straight up win.

The Warriors haven’t been a great team to bet on this season as they started the season slow and were overvalued by the oddsmakers. But they have covered five straight and this team is playing as well as they have all season. We think this team is coming on big time and that they will start wrecking teams on a nightly basis. Remember, despite inflated lines this team was the best ATS team in the NBA last year and they have an even better squad this season. We like them in this spot on the road (lower line) against a way inferior opponent. The Heat are just 4-7 ATS at home against above-.500 teams this season.

The Spurs have won and covered the last three games in this series, and none have been close. In fact, the Spurs have won all three games by an average of 28 points. And we are getting the shortest line they have faced in any of those games. The Spurs are being punished here by the oddsmakers because Tony Parker and Pau Gasol are out, but this team is less about the players than the system, and they have plenty of solid players to pick up the slack. The Spurs have been great at covering big lines and they are 17-11 ATS when laying six or more points this season. This team doesn’t let up in the fourth quarter with a big lead and that is why they are such a great team to bet on.

We like the way the Mavs have been playing lately and we have been on them in certain games, but we just don’t think they are ready to be favored by this many points over any team. This is the biggest favorite they have been all season, and we think this will be a close game. The Lakers definitely have a chance to win this one. They have lost 12 straight to the Mavs and that ups the urgency to go out and get a win here. And the Mavs teams that won most of those games against the Lakers is not as good this season and the Lakers are improved, and we think they come to play here on Sunday.

4 Unit Play. #672 Take Utah State over Colorado State (9 pm Campus Insiders) The Rams are a sinking ship at the moment and we will continue to fade them with these low numbers when they are on the road. The are down to eight scholarship players and are without Kimani Jackson, Che Bob and Devocio Butler, who failed to qualify academic for the second semester. They have been blown out in two straight games including on Wednesday at Fresno State. They still have bad karma from their game against New Mexico last week when an altercation occurred in the parking lot postgame. Utah State has struggled this season as well but they are a much better team at home. They also have the best player on the floor in Jalen Moore and this is a much need win to get things back on track and even their record at 9-9 on the season. The Aggies are still an explosive team that can score points in bunches and I just do not believe Colorado State will be able to keep pace with them. Utah State leads the all-time series against Colorado State, 57-36, and has won five of the last six. The Aggies are 17-6 against the Rams in Logan.

We are not a big fan of this Cavs team and there probably isn’t a more overrated squad in the east. Yes, they are the best in the east by far, but they are always overvalued by the oddsmakers (18-21-2 ATS this season) and we don’t think they stack up well against the best teams in the west. Anytime you are getting points for the Spurs you really have to take notice, and that is the case here tonight. The Spurs have covered in five of the last seven meetings in Cleveland, and we think they win this one straight up tonight, but we will take the points instead of the moneyline in case it’s a close game. The Spurs have been dogs only twice this season, and of course they are 2-0 ATS in these situations. Make that 3-0 tonight.

4 Unit Play. #674 Take Duke over Miami (8:15 pm ESPN) Duke needs a win in the worst way. They have yet to win a conference road game but they are still undefeated at home. Duke has suffered from injuries much of the season but they still have talent and I feel they win come ready to play in a big way on Saturday night with the College Gameday Crew on hand. Miami is just a shell of their former selves and they have been blown out by Wake Forest and Syracuse. Miami is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. 

Memphis matches up well here and they have covered in five of the last seven meetings. They won the last two straight up. Houston is on a real tough back-to-back here after tangling with the Warriors last night, and that game didn’t go well for them. In fact, they haven’t been playing well lately and have covered in only two of their last seven games. These teams played recently in Houston and the Griz won by five. Forget about revenge here as the Rockets were focused on the Warriors last night and this game will not be as crucial to them and this is a real bad spot for the visitors tonight.

The Wizards are just one of those teams that can’t play basketball away from home. They are 5-13 on the road this season and just 7-11 ATS. They have been playing well lately but have had a home-heavy schedule and we think they are overvalued on this line. Detroit has won two straight and they have looked good doing it, and they are looking for revenge after suffering a beatdown in Washington last month. But they are 10-4 ATS in this series in the last 14 meetings in Detroit and we expect them to take care of business by a comfortable margin tonight.

4 Unit Play. #601 Take Wisconsin over Minnesota (4:30 pm BTN) Wisconsin is far and away the best team in the Big 10 this season and we will continue to use them when these two numbers come about. Richard Pitino has yet to make the NCAA Tournament as a head coach and this win would go along way to him accomplishing that feat in 2016-2017. The Badgers have only lost to three ranked teams this year and they already have wins at Indiana and at Marquette. Wisconsin is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Big Ten games. 

4 Unit Play. #869 Take Oakland over Northern Kentucky (7 pm ESPN 3) The Golden Grizzles laid an egg last week at home against inferior competition but I now believe this line is an overreaction to that. Oakland is still one of the top teams in the Horizon League and Northern Kentucky is not. Oakland already beat the Norse by 11 points this season and I believe getting out of Michigan will help them in this game (less pressure). Oakland is 23-8 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 33 road games. Northern Kentucky is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

4 Unit Play. #733 Take UAB over Florida Atlantic (8 pm) We used the Blazers twice last week and won easily both times and we will look to complete the trifecta on Thursday. UAB is on the road this time but it comes against very weak competition as the Owls have lost five of their last six games. FAU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. 

These teams have played to the under in four straight meetings, and the last three got nowhere near this posted total. We think this will be a low-scoring game. Dallas is trending to the under as seven of the last nine games they have played have gone under, and they are doing it on the strength of their defense. These teams have similar records, but the Mavs have dealt with many injuries this season and now they are relatively healthy. We think they are clearly the better team on the floor in this matchup. They are very confident after three straight wins and we think their defense gets the job done tonight here in South Beach.

NBA Game of the Year. This is the last game of a seven-game homestand for the Kings. It hasn’t gone well. They have only one win during that stretch. We think that makes them a very desperate team tonight in a very winnable game. They are on the road for eight straight games after this game tonight, and they better get a win here at home against a very beatable opponent because if they lose this one they are in trouble. There isn’t much such a thing as a must-win game at this point in the season, but this one is close. If you look at the opponents the Kings have played in this recent homestand you start to think that maybe this team is not playing as bad as their recent results indicate. Opponents included the Clippers, Warriors, Cavs and Thunder. That’s about as tough as a four-game stretch as a team can have. They won against Detroit. The only bad loss during that stretch was against Miami. They took Cleveland to OT and covered against the Warriors. They played OKC pretty close too despite the non cover. Indiana has had a lot easier recent schedule. They are 6-1 in their last seven games, with wins over New Orleans (Anthony Davis had limited minutes), New York, Brooklyn, Detroit, Orlando and Chicago. And most of these games were at home. We are confident the Kings could have played just as well with that schedule, and the Pacers are overvalued as a result. But the Pacers just stink on the road, where they have won only five games this season. They are 5-13 ATS on the road, so when they lose they normally fail to cover as well. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS as a small favorite this season (less than 4.5 points) and the Pacers are 3-9 ATS as an underdog of less than 4.5 points.

Sharp bettors took some of the early value out of this line by pounding Boston, but we think there is a great chance that the Celtics win this one by double digits. Boston has covered in three of the last four meetings and in six of the last nine. We can’t think of another team that has more internal problems as the Knicks right now and this team is really struggling and has won only two of their last 13 games. The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games and are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. Noah and Porzingis are both questionable for the Knicks tonight, but we don’t think it will matter if they play or not as we see the Celtics rolling here.

Just think this is too many points for the road team tonight. Portland has covered in six of the last nine meetings in this series and we expect them to put up a fight tonight. The Hornets have just one win in their last eight games. They just finished up a long road trip and they lost every game. Normally teams struggle with their first game back after a long trip, and that should be even more so the case for the Hornets who have no confidence right now. The Blazers haven’t been playing great, either, but they have at least split their last four games, and we think they will keep this one close tonight.

10 Unit Play. #523 Take VCU over Fordham (7 pm SNY) The Fordham Rams are not good and they have won just two games since November 24th. The somehow won at Davidson last Wednesday but that is just a fluke evident by the fact they followed that up with a 20-point home loss last Saturday. This is going to be a 20-point game for the VCU Rams. VCU is always one of the top teams in the Atlantic 10 and they are eager to get back onto the court after suffering their first loss in conference on Saturday. This is a much more talent team that Fordham, a team that has lost three straight home games. Fordham got blown out by Saint Joes without their best player and VCU is fully stocked and ready to get back on the wining track. Fordham is 1-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games. VCU is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. 

Dallas has won and covered in two straight games and this team is playing with some confidence right now. The Bulls have eight more wins than the Mavs this season but Dallas has dealt with a lot of injuries all season and these teams aren’t as far apart as you might think. We just don’t think the Bulls are good enough to be laying this many points to any team coming off of two wins. Chicago has not been a good team to back as a favorite as they are 4-9 ATS when laying four or more points this season and we think they are overvalued here once again. Dallas plays in the Western Conference and they play tougher teams on a nightly basis and that is a big reason for such a disparity in these teams records, plus the injuries for Dallas. The Mavs have won three straight in this series and they have won and covered in four of the last five. We think they have a great chance for the straight up win here tonight.

4 Unit Play. #726 Take Toledo over Bowling Green (7 pm) The Rockets are a completely different team on the road compared to when they play at home. The Falcons have been blown out in two straight home games and I do not see things getting any better on the road for them. Bowling Green is 5-13 in their last 18 MAC games. Toledo will pull away late in the second half and win this game by 13-15 points.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

Utah is playing pretty well lately and even though they had the night off last night this will be their third game in four nights and we think they should struggle to play here on the road like they have been recently, especially against a plucky Suns squad that is back from Mexico and flying high after a win over the Spurs last time out. The Suns have covered in six of their last eight games and this team has been playing hard every night lately. They are 8-2 ATS at home against top teams and this squad normally gets fired up and plays well when a good opponent comes to town.

We just think the Warriors are a much better team in this matchup. Yes, the Cavs won the finals last season, but we think the Warriors were out of gas late in that series after (stupidly) trying so hard for the regular-season wins record. And Cleveland got the win on Christmas when these teams played but they caught the Warriors at the end of that game and we thought Golden State controlled most of that game. Now the venue changes as the Warriors are back home for this one and we think they have a big game here as they should be very very motivated and this team plays its best with a chip on its shoulder.

4 Unit Play. #547 Take Monmouth over Canisius (7 pm) This line has been skyrocketing since it opened and it is for good reason tonight in Buffalo. Monmouth is looking to complete the season sweep of Canisius as they already beat them once this season in New Jersey. I see a similar game tonight with the visitor winning by 6-8 points. Canisius is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. Monmouth is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

Philly has been a really hot ATS team and they have covered in six of their last seven games overall. We like their chances to cover this big number today. The Bucks are just 2-5 ATS when laying four or more points this season so they just haven’t been a good play as a big favorite. The Bucks have won nine straight in this series but this is the first meeting of the season and Philly now has the type of team that can be competitive here. We think they give top effort here to end this losing streak and we think they will keep this one close.

4 Unit Play. #886 Take Colorado over USC (8:30 pm ESPN U) I believe USC is the more talented but they are in freefall now and they are an automatic fade especially when playing on the road. They have lost three of their last four games and their weak nonconference schedule is starting to catch up to them. Colorado is in desperate need of a conference win after losing four straight but three of them were on the road and they lost to UCLA on Thursday. The Bruins are one of the best teams in the country and there is no shame in that. USC is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Colorado is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games played on Sunday. 

10 Unit Play. #668 Take San Diego State over Utah State (10 pm ESPN 3) The Aztecs are going to go on a winning streak and I believe the seeds of this have been planted in their last game out. San Diego State beat San Jose State by 15 points on Tuesday in a game they led by 20+ for most of the evening. Now they face another bottom feeder team at home and expect another 15-18 point victory. The Aggies are just not the same team when playing on the road and they already have losses at Air Force & Wyoming. San Diego State is much better than both of those teams and they are going to make some noise in the conference sooner or later. Utah State is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. 

The Wizards are one of those teams that has no clue on the road but is great at home. They are 15-6 at home this season and have covered in nine of their last 10 here in DC. Philly will likely be without Rookie of the Year frontrunner Embiid as he normally rests on the second end of a back-to-back. That’s probably a big reason that the Sixers are 1-6 in back-to-backs this season. The Wizards just play great on their home court and they have had two nights off coming into this one. Philly has been playing pretty great lately but this team still has a long way to go and we see a blowout win for the home team here tonight.

4 Unit Play. #635 Take UCLA over Utah (6 pm PAC-12 Network) Just do not believe Utah is that good this season and they are playing the most talented team in the country on Saturday afternoon. UCLA has just won loss and that came at Oregon on a buzzer beater. Utah is not Oregon and they just do not have that high of a ceiling because of their lack of talent. It is always tough to win in Salt Lake City but that along should not keep the spread this low. Every top 20 team Utah has faced this season they have lost big! Just not that impressed with their dominating victory over USC this week as the Trojans are a sinking ship now. UCLA can beat you in a variety of ways and expect them to take care of business tonight by 8-10 points. UCLA is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Utah is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a greater than .600 winning percentage. 

It used to be that the Clippers dominated this series but the Lakers are getting better as a team and they are taking this rivalry more seriously and they have actually now covered in five of the last six matchups. And we think they will keep it within double digits here on Saturday. The Lakers are coming off a couple embarrassing losses and we think they will give their best effort today against a team they normally play well against. The Clips haven’t been good at covering the big lines and they are 9-13 ATS when laying six of more points this season. We think this line is 3-4 points too large and we expect a close game here.

4 Unit Play. #554 Take UAB over Marshall (1 pm) We have good fortune in Conference USA when it comes to picking winners and will look for that to continue Saturday. We easily collected with the Blazers on Thursday and look for more of the same on Saturday. Marshall is just not the same team on the road and their style of play greatly benefits them at home. UAB beat them both of their meetings last season and I see this being another close game that the home team pulls out by 5-8 points. Marshall is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. 

4 Unit Play. #531 Take Richmond over Saint Josephs (12:30 pm NBCSN) The Hawks were in rebuilding mode this year after making the NCAA Tournament last year. That become almost impossible now for them to compete without Shavar Newkirk and his 20.2 points per game. Since his lost they are just 1-2 with only a victory against bottom feeder Fordham on their resume. They have been blown out by Rhode Island and lost at home to a shaky George Mason team last time out. They just do not have much punch and will struggle to win any game this season.

Richmond has underachieved during the nonconference portion of the season but they seemed to have put things together winning four straight games during Atlantic 10 play. They have a variety of offensive weapons and they have been playing their best basketball of the season lately. These teams met only once last year and the Hawks won a hard-fought game by 4 points in Richmond. Expect the Spiders to return that favor on Saturday in Philadelphia. St. Joes is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 

We think that this line is kind of a joke. Yes, Detroit is on a back-to-back here and they haven’t been good in this situation but you are going to tell me they should be an underdog by almost the same point total as they were in Golden State last night? Yes, they didn’t cover last night but the Jazz are not the Warriors. This one has a real low point total and we like the under and with a low-scoring game the points with the underdog are more valuable, especially when you are getting double digits. Detroit has covered in four of the last five meetings and they have won two straight in the series, and we expect a close, low-scoring game here tonight.

We are always looking for spots to go against Cleveland as they are a poor ATS team at 16-20-2 and this team always has their lines shaded by the oddsmakers. And we certainly think that is the case tonight. We had this line at Cavs -4 so we think there is nice value here. Sacramento has been a great underdog play and they are 8-3 ATS when getting five or more points this season. Cousins is about to get a fat contract extension and he should be motivated to play a strong game tonight against the defending champs. The Cavs have a huge game upcoming at Golden State and they are probably focused on that more than Sacramento tonight!

Even though the Timberwolves are 2-2 in their last four they have played four pretty strong games in a row and we think the Thunder are a very public play tonight. Minnesota has covered three straight games and we had them as a slight favorite in this game tonight and we expect them to win this one. OKC has covered only 3 of 11 meetings in Minnesota and the Wolves normally match up well in this series. You are starting to see the confidence shine through with this Minnesota team and this squad is very talented and we think they will continue to cover tonight.

Boston is a little banged up but this team is better than Atlanta and we think it’s a gift to get points in this matchup tonight. We fully expect the Celtics to win this one. Atlanta is playing really well right now but this squad has had a super easy schedule and San Antonio is the only real quality win they have in that time. We think this one would qualify as a quality win but that’s not going to happen. This is another game where we had the underdog as a slight favorite and we think that the Celtics will take this one on the road here on Friday.

We have found that fading the Warriors when laying big points is becoming a solid trend. This team is just not playing as well as last year consistently this season and they shouldn’t be giving that type of effort on a nightly basis because look at how that worked out for them last year as they lost to Cleveland in the NBA Finals and looked gassed there at the end of Game 7. The Warriors are just 12-22 ATS this season when laying seven or more points. They are 10-19 ATS when laying double digits. Not only do they not have the same killer instinct as last season but they also are getting their best games from opponents on a nightly basis. Detroit actually played them tough already once this season in a six-point loss in Detroit and they won the meeting before that in Detroit last year. They have covered in three of the last four meetings, and they lost by 14 the last time in GS and were close to covering the spread. We think they come to play again tonight and all indications show they match up well.

There is a lot going on with the Knicks right now and this team has dropped nine of 10. But bettor confidence is at an all-time low with this team and this spread just offers some nice value. The Bulls are without their best player tonight in Jimmy Butler. The flu is going around this team right now. Like the Knicks, the Bulls have their share of issues right now and we think this is a great spot for New York to get a much-needed win. They have covered in four of the last five meetings in this series and we think they will shake off the issues and play a strong game here against another flawed ballclub.

Bonus Play #509 Take Dallas -2 over Phoenix (10 p.m. EST, Thursday)

This game will be played in Mexico City. The Mavs have been streaky lately and they followed three ATS covers with three ATS losses, and one of those losses was to this Suns team a week ago tonight. Revenge doesn’t play a big part in our NBA handicapping but it does play a role when teams have played each other recently, and that is the case here, and we think the Mavs will get the job done here. These teams have similar records but the Mavs have dealt with more injuries and they are relatively healthy right now. They have also won four of the last five meetings and covered in three of the last four.

4 Unit Play. #546 Take UAB over Western Kentucky (8 pm) The Hilltoppers are coming off a 12 point home loss to Old Dominion in this last game and I do not see things getting any better tonight in Birmingham. WKU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss in their last game out.  

Anthony Davis is banged up here and left the Pelicans last game and is questionable here. You have to think that he won’t be anywhere near 100% even if he plays, and Davis is one of the most important players in the league to his team’s success. Brooklyn has been good against sub-.500 teams and they are 7-3 ATS against these types of clubs this season. They have also been great as small underdogs, posting a 6-2 ATS record as a dog of less than 5.5 points. Brooklyn has had a pretty tough schedule lately and we think this is one of the more winnable games they have played in awhile and we think they give top effort here and challenge for the win.

10 Unit Play. #713 Take George Washington over VCU (6 pm ESPN 2) We used this play last year as a top play with a similar number and won that game straight-up with the underdog. Expect history to repeat itself on Wednesday night in Richmond. VCU is not a great offensive team and they have been beating up on bad teams of late. George Washington has the better shooting team and if they can take care of the basketball I expect them to take this game down to the wire. Out of the Colonials seven losses only one of them has come over today’s posted number. That was against Florida State, a team that just pounded Duke yesterday. Most of the stats point to around a 4-7 point game and that will be good enough to cash this ticket. In fact both meetings went down to the wire last year with the games being decided by 3 and 4 points (both teams won one of the games). Tyler Cavanaugh is the best offensive player on the floor and he will come up big for us tonight. George Washington is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. VCU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  

4 Unit Play. #562 Take San Diego State over San Jose State (11 pm ESPN U) The Aztecs need a conference win in the worst way and the Spartans are the perfect team for them to accomplish this in blowout fashion. The Spartans are a little better this season but they are still a bottom feeder team and lost by 25 points in the only conference road game this season. Fresno State self-destructed against them over the weekend with two technicals with under a minute to play in a close game. SJSU is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games. SDSU get a win in blowout fashion and we collect in the process as well. 

4 Unit Play. #558 Take New Mexico over UNLV (9 pm ESPN 3) By now you probably know that New Mexico blew a 25 point lead to Nevada over the weekend and lost in overtime by one point. I am not expecting them to come out pissed about that loss, however they have enough talent to beat UNLV convincingly. The Rebels are in major rebuilding mode and they have been blown out in their last two games against team that are not as good as the Lobos. New Mexico has just lost one game at the Pit and they will win this game by double digits. UNLV is 1-14 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 road games. 

The Spurs have covered in seven of the last nine meetings in this series. The Spurs are playing at a championship level right now and they will be too much for the Bucks to handle tonight. San Antonio has covered in seven of their last eight games. The Spurs have always been really good at covering big lines and this year is no different as they are 15-8 ATS when laying six or more points. This team just has that killer instinct and they don’t let up at the end of the game even when up big. The Bucks are banged up while the Spurs are pretty healthy. We think this one is a mismatch even though we like this Bucks team but they are in over their heads tonight.

The Hornets are a team to fade as long as Nic Batum is out as he is one of the most unheralded players in the league and the No. 2 player on this team. But they really lose a lot with him out of the lineup and they head into a buzzsaw tonight in Houston and don’t expect much from the visitors tonight. Houston just keeps getting the job done and they are 8-0 in their last eight games and they have covered in six of those. The Hornets have dropped four of five and aren’t playing too well right now and times should continue to be tough until Batum comes back. Houston is 7-2 ATS when laying nine or more points so they usually get the job done as big favorites.

4 Unit Play. #539 Take Auburn over Missouri (7 pm SEC Network) Both teams are searching for their first victory in conference but I just feel that Auburn has more upside than does Missouri. The Tigers just have not gotten it done under Kim Anderson and we will likely be replaced come seasons end. They are 5-9 on the season and they have yet to beat anybody of significance this season. Auburn will go on a run at some point and put this game out of reach. Missouri is 17-35 ATS (3 pushes) in their last 55 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Auburn being favored tells me all I need to know in this game. 

The Pelicans have won and covered the last two meetings in this series, including about a week and a half ago when the Pels scored a 12-point win in New Orleans. The Knicks were overrated to start the season and they have been playing some of their worst basketball of the season in losing seven of eight, and they had to mount a big comeback in their one win during that stretch. New Orleans is 6-3 ATS as a small dog this season and this is one of their best roles. We think they keep this game very close with the chance for the straight up win, and we think this is an inflated line tonight for the home team.

Orlando already destroyed the Lakers by 19 in Orlando last month and this is just the better team taking the floor tonight and we had the Magic handicapped at -1 in this game and think there is some nice value here with this underdog line as a result. Orlando has had a really tough schedule lately and this is their most winnable game in awhile. We think they will give their best effort. The Lakers are only 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season and we think they will fail in this role again here Sunday night.

4 Unit Play. #541 Take Wake Forest over Virginia (8 pm ESPN U) Sunday night hoops features a struggling Cavalier team looking to even their conference record at 2-2. Virginia is its usual self trying to win games solely on the defensive side of the floor. That makes it hard to cover these big numbers and that will hold true again. Wake Forest has some strong offensive weapons that should be able to keep this game close. Wake Forest is 19-7 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 28 games played on Sunday. Virginia is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played on Sunday. 

4 Unit Play. #555 Take NC State over North Carolina (1 pm ESPN) NC State has some weapons and this is a lot of points for a very streaky North Carolina team. ACC has been wild thus far and I just do not see a blowout in this postponed game. The Wolfpack have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

4 Unit Play. #876 Take New Mexico over Nevada (11:15 pm ESPN 2) Not many are saying it but the MWC will be a one bid league for the second straight year with the lone representative being whoever wins the conference tournament in March. Both of these teams have visions of getting an at-large bid but that will not be the case. Despite that I feel these are the two best teams in the league and we will side with the Lobos as they are unbeaten at the Pit. The Wolf Pack have had very little success in Albuquerque and that will continue tonight. The Lobos have two dynamic players in Brown and Williams and they will score over 40 combined points in this game. If Nevada can lose at Fresno they can certainly in Albuquerque. 

The Mavericks have covered in three of their last four games and this team is finally getting healthy and we think they are a better team than their record and also the public perception of this club is skewed, and that provides betting value. The Hawks are playing very well but they are in the middle of a four-game road trip, having won the last two, and they aren’t going to sweep this thing so there is a decent chance they lose tonight. Especially considering this will be their third game in four nights against an opponent that will not inspire their competitiveness. Kyle Korver is on the way out of town and won’t play here. Atlanta has dominated this series but this looks like a bad spot for them tonight.

The Hornets need all the help they can get against the Spurs on the road but they will be without Nic Batum here and he is really one of our favorite players in the league and he’s a very important player for this team. We feel they will slide a bit with him out of the lineup. And they are in tough tonight in San Antonio. Many good teams have trouble covering big lines, but not the Spurs, who are 10-7 ATS when laying seven or more points. We expect that percentage to rise as the season wears on as the Spurs have that killer instinct that a lot of other teams don’t possess. The Spurs are completely healthy and had the night off while Charlotte is playing their third game in four nights in a very tough building for opposing teams.

The Knicks have covered only one of their last eight games in Indiana. Carmelo Anthony is banged up and questionable here. Reports say the injury is so bad that he needs “around the clock” treatment. That doesn’t bode well for a team playing their third game in four nights, and on road back-to-backs no less. The Pacers have won and covered four in a row and this team is playing extremely well right now. They are 14-5 at home this season while the Knicks are just 6-12 on the road. New York got a rare win last night but they have been struggling overall and we just think this is another bad spot for them with an injured superstar.

4 Unit Play. #908 Take Siena over St. Peters (7 pm ESPN 3) The Saints have been one of the most disappointing teams this season. That being said, they have talent and one has to figure they will put it together at some point this season and hopefully for us it starts tonight. The Peacocks are coming off a surprising win against Monmouth last time out but this is not the team that can string together very many winning streaks in the MAAC. They have lost four of their last six games including a 15-point loss to Houston Baptist. Siena is due to have a night where everything comes together and that will be Saturday in Albany. 

10 Unit Play. #801 Take Fresno State over San Jose State (5 pm) The Spartans have been a door mat in basketball since joining the MWC and anytime you see this low of a number it should be an automatic play. Fresno State made the NCAA Tournament last year and beat Nevada last week in Fresno. This same Wolf Pack team beat the Spartans by 25 points a week and a half ago. It can be dangerous to make these types of comparisons but it hold value in this case. SJSU has already lost three home games this season to Colorado State, Portland, & Denver and the Bulldogs are better than all three of those teams. Fresno State has played three of the top teams in the league thus far (New Mexico, Wyoming, & Nevada) and held their own winning two of those games and taking the Lobos down to the wire at the Pit. Fresno State is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. San Jose State is 15-38 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 55 home games. Nuff Said! 

The Grizzlies have covered in two of the last three meetings and they scored a 21-point home win last time these teams met, holding the Warriors to just 89 points. We don’t expect that kind of result tonight, but we do think the Grizzlies will play hard and keep it close. This series has developed into a rivalry and Memphis should give their best effort. Golden State has covered in only one of their last six games and they just aren’t giving full effort on a nightly basis and they normally have to play their best to cover the massive points they are laying on a nightly basis. This team is 10-16 ATS this season when laying 10 or more points.

Houston is one of the best ATS teams in the league and they are playing a Magic team that has been a solid big underdog on the road but has failed miserably ATS at home with a 5-13-1 ATS mark at home. We aren’t worried about the back-to-back here as the Rockets are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back. They average 121+ points on the second night in these situations! The Magic started off the season playing strong defense but now they have fallen off the cliff in that regard. For every decent game they play defensively they allow 110+ a couple of times, like they have done in three of their last four games, and the Rockets have the type offense that will make them pay.

4 Unit Play. #802 Take Eastern Washington over Montana State (9:05 pm) The Eagles have played four straight road games and are ready for some home cooking tonight in Cheney. Eastern Washington is a perfect 7-0 at home this season. The Eagles currently have the top RPI in the Big Sky and should be able to take care of business tonight against an inferior opponent. Montana State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

4 Unit Play. #750 Take UCLA over Cal (9 pm ESPN) UCLA is the best team in the country and they will win this game going away. The Bears have some talent but they will not be able to keep with the Bruins for 40 minutes. UCLA has a ton of blowout victories on their resume and they will add to it tonight. UCLA has covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 home games. Cal is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. 

Atlanta is on a back-to-back here, on the road no less, while the Pelicans have had two nights off. Rest definitely favors the home team here. New Orleans is hot and they have won and covered in four of their last five games. Their only slip up was an eight-point loss at Cleveland. They have also covered in six of the last eight games in this series. The Pelicans are playing a lot better after a bad early start and with the Hawks on a back-to-back we had this game handicapped at Pelicans -6 so we think there is great value here and we think there’s a good chance they win by more than seven tonight.

We have gone against OKC quite a bit this season but this time we think the value has swung the other way as this line is way too large tonight. The Rockets are the better team, but not that much better. The Thunder come in on a back-to-back and we can understand the oddsmakers punishing them for that, but this line still looks about three points off the mark. And you know Russell Westbrook and his big ego will want to have a big game in a marquee matchup like this against an old teammate, especially after an off night last night. The Thunder have lost two in a row and they will go all out to avoid a three-game slide.

Utah has been pretty good on the road and they actually have one less win on the road (10-7) than the Raptors have at home (11-5). We think this will be a competitive game that the Jazz have the chance to win straight up. This is a crucial road trip for Utah and they had a bad loss last time out at Boston and we just think they will play a lot better in this matchup. Toronto is one of the best ATS teams this season but they have started to become overrated by the oddsmakers and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games, with the only ATS win coming in a blowout at the Lakers. This is their first game home after a long road trip and history says that is a bad spot many times for good teams.

4 Unit Play. #728 Take Marshall over Old Dominion (7 pm) Hard to go wrong playing the Thundering Herd at home. They are a dynamic offensive team that will put a run on the Monarchs sooner or later and win this game by double digits. Marshall is coming off two straight road wins and they took Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to the wire on the road as well. Marshall is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite. 

10 Unit Play. #582 Take Nevada over San Diego State (11 pm ESPN 2) It is now or never for Nevada against San Diego State. The Pack have the more talented team this year especially on the offensive side of the ball. They have yet to beat San Diego State since joining the MWC but that will end tonight. The Aztecs have been a mess this season coming off a home loss to New Mexico their last time out. They are 0-3 in true road games including losses at Grand Canyon and Loyola, teams that are much worse than Nevada. The Aztecs haven’t shot well from the field (42.4 percent, second worst in the MW) and is last in the conference in free throws attempted (248). Nevada can score points in a variety of ways and that will be the difference on Wednesday. Nevada is undefeated at home and they are 16-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 22 home games. San Diego State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. Nevada pulls away late to win this game by double digits. 

It’s not often we want to lay this many points in an NBA game, but the Warriors are definitely a team that can cover a line like this, and we think they are primed for a top performance tonight. Golden State has won the last two meetings by 45 and 23 points, respectively, and Damian Lillard was in the lineup for Portland in those games. He has missed four straight games and is doubtful tonight, and we think this one could get very ugly. Portland just stinks on defense and they are the third-worst team in the NBA for points allowed. They can compete against other poor teams but they can’t outscore the Warriors, and they haven’t held Golden State to less than 125 in the last four meetings. With or without Lillard we don’t think they will be able to do anything differently tonight, and since the Warriors haven’t been covering lately this line is manageable as we thought it would be a bit higher but we love it at anything less than 20 as we see this one as a total bloodbath. Golden State has covered in 20 of the last 26 meetings at home in this series!

The Hawks have not been good in the favorites role and they are 6-10 ATS as a favorite of less than seven points, which obviously they find themselves in here tonight. Atlanta normally follows up a solid game with a stinker, and they are 1-8 ATS after an ATS win, another situation they find themselves in tonight. We also think they may come in here a bit overconfident after beating the Spurs last time out. Orlando has won and covered in three of their last five and they have covered in nine of the last 12 meetings in this series. We expect them to compete for the win here tonight.

The Thunder have won 10 straight in this series. But this is not the same OKC team in the past, and we actually think that the Hornets have surpassed the Thunder in terms of being a better all-around team. But because they don’t have any big-name stars they don’t get a lot of attention from the betting public. But we think they will go all out to avoid losing their 11th straight in this series. The Hornets have won five of their last eight but come into this one having lost two straight, which makes this a great bounce-back spot against a beatable opponent. The Thunder are 0-5 ATS as a small dog this season!