Sports Picks & Predictions

3 Unit Play. #533 Take Long Beach State over Oregon State (11 pm) Oregon State was a dumpster fire last season and I just do not see a great turnaround in 2017-2018. They are not good enough to be winning games consistently by double digits. The Beach always has a competitive team in the Big West and they won at San Francisco already this season. Oregon State is 3-11 in their last 14 nonconference games. 

3 Unit Play. #530 Take Pacific over Nevada (10 pm) On paper this appears to be a complete mismatch but the line on this game is trending towards are side. It is hard to win on the road in the WCC especially in the high school style gyms many of these programs features. This will be Nevada’s second straight road game for the Pack and I just do not feel they can shoot as well as they did on Wednesday. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games overall. Just have a feeling Pacific will hang around in this game for 40 minutes. 

Atlanta has a lot better ATS record (7-7-1) than they do SU record (3-12) and that is what we look for in a home underdog against a “buzz” team like the Celtics that are on a massive winning streak and just beat the world champs last time out. Atlanta always plays tough in this series and they have actually covered in five of the last six meetings. This is the first game of a new road trip for Boston and after their big win over the Warriors this is probably a letdown spot for the road team. It seems like the bookies are begging the public to take the Celtics here and they are obliging but we expect a close, low-scoring game here and we think that the underdog is the only way to go in this matchup.

Utah is banged up right now and they haven’t been playing well lately. They are also coming in on a back-to-back. But we just think this is too many points they are getting tonight. This is Orlando, after all, that is their opponent tonight. They have lost three straight as well. The Jazz could get Ricky Rubio back tonight from injury and that would be a big help to the offense here. Utah has won two straight meetings in this series and they have covered six of the last seven meetings in Orlando. We think the Jazz will go all out to end this losing streak in what is a very favorable matchup on Saturday.

3 Unit Play. #544 Take Boston College over Texas Tech (12 pm ESPN 3) This neutral site greatly favors Boston College as it is driving distance from Chestnut Hill. It is now or never for Coach Jim Christian in his fourth year and he needs to show progress or he will be fired. I think they hang around in this game and lose by 4-6 points. Texas Tech is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Clippers are really struggling right now but this is more a play against Cleveland than for the Clippers. The Cavs are always overvalued by the oddsmakers, and they have been particularly bad at home where they have yet to cover a game this season (0-6-1 ATS). They have been particularly bad as a favorite as they are 1-8 ATS when laying 3 or more points on the season. The Clippers are really desperate for a win. They come into this game having had three nights off to regroup and we expect a strong effort tonight.

This Pistons team is flying up our power rankings and we think this squad is legit. They are 10-4 SU this season and they have been a covering machine on the road. We think that they are in great shape for a big road win here on Friday night. These teams just played in Detroit recently and it was a very dominating performance by the Pistons, who won by 17. We think they could easily score a massive win here as the “revenge” angle is way overrated in NBA handicapping, especially for a team like Indiana that is one of the more lousy teams in the NBA this season. They are just trying to take the season game by game and if they have revenge on their minds then they are going to have a lot of enemies this season because they won’t win too many games. We think the Pistons are undervalued here on the road and we expect them to continue their strong play here on Friday.

3 Unit Play. #751 Take Northern Kentucky over James Madison (5 pm) This is a complete mismatch in talent and this will be a double-digit victory in the Bahamas. James Madison is terrible and predicted to finish at the bottom of the standing in the CAA this season. They got blown out by Old Dominion and things will not get any easier this afternoon. James Madison is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 nonconference games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

3 Unit Play. #724 Take VCU over Virginia (4 pm CBSSN) This is a true road game for Virginia and I do not see them running the Rams out of the building. The Cavaliers finished 2017 with a major identity crisis and now some are wondering if Tony Bennett’s style can take them to the Final Four. They were embarrassed last year in the NCAA Tournament against Florida and I feel that this game will go down to the wire. Virginia is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. VCU is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on Friday. 

7 Unit Play. #515 Take Xavier over Wisconsin (8:30 pm FS1) The spread tells me a great deal about the talent disparity in this match-up. Playing at the Kohl Center is generally worth 5-6 points and this game being a pick’em means that most of the talent lies with the Musketeers. Wisconsin is in complete rebuild mode and are very young outside of Ethan Happ. Xavier is a top 15 team in the country that made the Elite Eight last season and has a chance to reach the Final Four this year. Xavier is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on Thursday. Throw in the revenge factor for the 2016 NCAA Tournament and expect Xavier to pull away late and win this game by 6-8 points. 

The Celtics enter having won 13 straight but we think they are running into a buzzsaw tonight. Golden State has won seven straight themselves and they are in midseason form right now. When this team is playing well they can cover any line thrown at them over any team. And when they are motivated they are very dangerous. And there is no doubt they will be motivated tonight as they have a chance to halt this Celtics winning streak. The fact that Boston has won two of the last three meetings will fuel the Warriors fire even more. This is just the much better team slat out and we expect a big performance from the road team.

3 Unit Play. #738 Take Santa Clara over Nevada (10 pm) Nevada has played a brutal schedule to open this season and the style of the Broncos should cause them fits tonight at the Leavey Center. Nevada is on a high after beating Rhode Island on Monday but playing on the road against WCC teams is always a tough task. Nevada got a great whistle shooting 44+ free throws on Monday. That will not happen tonight, and I see this game going down to the wire. 

The Grizzlies started off real hot at the beginning of the season and they have trailed off a bit and have lost three of their last four. They are coming off a long road trip, mostly against very tough teams, and then this is their first game back home before they face Houston and Portland in their next two games. We just don’t see how they are going to be very focused for this opponent, and it seems with this small line that the bookies are begging the public to take the home team here. Memphis is 0-3 against the Eastern Conference so far this season and we just think this is a bad spot for them tonight, especially with Conley very questionable for this game.

3 Unit Play. #749 Take Eastern Illinois over Western Illinois (8 pm) This directional school battle will go the way of Eastern Illinois. The Panthers return four starters from last season and should move up the standing in the Ohio Valley. Western Illinois is predicted to finish last in the Summit League and will lose this game by double digits tonight in Macomb.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

3 Unit Play. #733 Take UTSA over Texas State (8 pm) The Roadrunners needed a regime change and they should be much better on defense this year. The Bobcats had trouble scoring against Air Force and I am not sure that they will be able to take advantage of a weak defense. Just do not see a blowout tonight and expect this game to go down to the wire. 

Miami always seems to play well against the Wizards. In fact, they have won five straight in this series. And they have covered in four of those five games. We like them at home tonight against this short price. This is the first game of a home-and-home and these teams play Friday in the Nation’s Capital and the home team is normally a very strong play in the first leg of these situations. The Heat have been on the road for a long time but they have had two nights off heading into this rare home game and we think that the home crowd will be rocking for this one. The Wizards record has been pumped up by an incredibly easy schedule and any decent team with that slate should be better than 8-5. We think there is nice value in the home team tonight.

Houston has won six straight but they have played some pretty flawed teams during that stretch. Next to Cleveland this is the best team they have played during that stretch. We just think that this is too many points to give up to Toronto. The Raps haven’t been lined as this big of an underdog too much this season but they have covered every time they are getting decent points as they are 2-0 ATS when getting four or more. We see this as a very competitive game and we think that the Raptors are a very live underdog on Tuesday and they have a great chance to win this game outright, so getting this many points provides great betting value.

3 Unit Play. #517 Take Green Bay over Northern Illinois (8 pm) The Huskies are predicted to finish last in the MAC West Division and just do not believe they are good enough to be giving points against Green Bay. The Phoenix have to replace a ton of talent from last season, but they always seem to be in the top half of the Horizon League Standing. Just feel this game will go down to the wire and getting this many points is hard to pass up. 

3 Unit Play. #528 Take Duke over Michigan State (7 pm ESPN) Michigan State seems to overschedule every year and in recent years they have had trouble winning these big games. Duke leads this match-up by a count of 11-2 and have beaten Michigan State six straight times. Duke has a ton of young talent to go along with Grayson Allen and I just do not see them losing to Michigan State tonight in Chicago. 

7 Unit Play. #744 Take Nevada -1.5 over Rhode Island (11:30 pm ESPN U) This is a great mid-major battle that is flying under the radar as both teams are loaded with talent and made the NCAA Tournament last season. We will side with Nevada as they are playing at home and should have a great crowd on hand for this game. Nevada has lost just 4 home games under Coach Musselman and Rhode Island does not have the size inside to hurt Nevada’s lack of height. This is a game Nevada must win if it has any hopes of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. This should be an exciting game that does down to the wire, but I feel Nevada will pull it out late by 6-8 points.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

We think this is a real good spot for the Blazers tonight. Denver has been very good lately but they have played their last six games at home and it hasn’t always been against the best competition. Portland has been playing pretty mediocre basketball to start the season and they enter this matchup at 6-6. But they have played a lot of close games and we think they are playing better than that record might indicate. The Nuggets have played a very home-heavy schedule to start the season but they are just 2-3 SU on the road and 1-4 ATS this season. We think after losing two straight really close games that the Blazers will go all out for the win tonight. We had this game handicapped at Portland -4 with a strong lean to the home team at that number so to get them as a slight underdog is a gift here. We think these teams are about equal but we give the nod to Portland because of their great home-court advantage tonight.

Orlando is on a back-to-back here and playing their third game in four nights. That is really tough to do in the high altitude of Denver. The Nuggets had the night off on Friday and they should be primed for a big performance here tonight. The Nuggets have won four of five and they are playing really well, with their only loss during this stretch coming against the Warriors. This is the last game of a six-game homestand and if they get the win here tonight that will make it an extremely successful homestand. Denver has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series and they are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings at home in this series.

3 Unit Play. #740 Take Fairfield over Pennsylvania (1 pm) Penn did not have a good year in 2016-2017 going 13-15 and their backcourt is not very good. They are a middle of the pack team this year in the Ivy League and should not be laying points on the road. The Stags have Tyler Nelson who is back after averaging close to 20 points a game last season. This game will go down to the wire but I believe Fairfield will pull it out.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

3 Unit Play. #576 Take Navy over Pittsburgh (9 pm CBSSN) This line does not make a lot of sense! Navy being favored against a team from the ACC? The line opened at -2 and is now above that so as the saying goes, “Somebody must know something.” We will not overthink this selection and just go with the trend, as Navy is playing at home on Veteran’s Day Eve. 

With the last two games in this series being decided by a grand total of three points (and the Bucks covering in both games) you have to like Milwaukee here with the underdog points on Friday. The Bucks are off to a real slow start to the season but this is a stock to buy low as this team will be a force this season and it just seems to be a matter of time until they start cashing tickets on a regular basis and we expect that to start tonight. Both teams have had a couple nights off but the Bucks are even more well rested with a real light schedule lately and we think they will want to flex their muscle in this game not only to end a four-game losing streak but to test their mettle against one of the best teams in the west.

3 Unit Play. #518 Take West Virginia over Texas A & M (6 pm ESPN) Expect a foul fest in this game but I see West Virginia pulling away in the second half to win this game by 9-11 points. The Aggies have suspended Robert Williams for this game and that is a major void this offensively challenged team will have to fill. Texas A & M was not very good last season but should challenge for a tournament bid this year. I just do not believe they are up to the level of West Virginia. 

OKC has won and covered four of the last five meetings in this series. The Nuggets have been playing real well lately but their record is somewhat Fool’s Gold as they have run into some of the worst of the worst in the NBA this season. OKC has had a shaky start to the season and they have lost three straight. But we just think that there is some nice value here as if this game were at the start of the season the Thunder would probably be 4 or 5 point favorites here and we think that is a more solid number than this short one posted by the bookies. We think the road team gets back on the winning track here in the TNT nightcap.

Boston has won nine straight and now they are back at home after a three-game road trip. Actually five of the last seven have come on the road but that hasn’t slowed the Celtics down as they have covered in eight games of the winning streak. We think they are in store for another cover tonight. The Lakers are still figuring things out. They have covered four in a row (which has kept this line reasonable) but those opponents were all flawed and they face a very good team tonight. This Lakers team has played only three road games thus far this season and as a result they are a bit overrated and we expect a double-digit win from the home team tonight.

We see this as a low scoring game and we think the underdog covers in this one. Orlando is banged up right now, especially in the backcourt, and they scored only 83 and 88 in their last two games, respectively. We don’t see them getting back on the offensive track until they get healthy again. They have now gone under in four straight games and in five of their last six. The Knicks are coming in on a back-to-back and this is their third game in four nights. We don’t see them putting a massive number on the scoreboard tonight although we do think they can do enough offensively to cover this line. New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 in Orlando. This should be an ugly game but it doesn’t matter as we expect to cash both tickets here.

These teams have identical records but we think the Grizzlies are slightly ahead of the curve when you compare these two teams head to head. We think that they have a great chance to notch the straight up win tonight. Portland scored a big win over OKC last time out and as a result we think they are a bit overvalued in this game as we had this one as a pickem so getting the points here gives nice value to the underdog that we think is very live tonight and we expect the Griz to score the road win tonight.

While the Clippers have had zero success lately against the Warriors they have fared much better against the other Western Conference top power, the Spurs. They have won and covered in four of the last six matchups. And who can forget that awesome playoff series a few years ago where the Clips won in Game 7. After a hot start the Clippers have lost four of five. But this is a better team than that recent record. They are embarking on a long road trip and this is the first game and we think they will bring their A Game tonight to start the trip off on the right foot against a team they have had a lot of success against recently. The Spurs are banged up right now and this team is more vulnerable than ever.

Both of these teams have had slow starts to the season but the Cavs are normally overvalued by the oddsmakers and this team is a very poor 2-8 ATS this season. We think they are overvalued in this spot as well. The Bucks will want to play their best here and you get the feeling that this is just another game for Cleveland. These teams already played this season and the Cavs blew the Bucks out and that loss is probably still fresh on their minds. We expect a much better performance from the road team here in this matchup. Milwaukee is well rested here with three nights off and with that extra time we think they will be primed to end the losing streak here and even if they don’t we expect a close game here.

We said we might cool off from fading the Warriors for awhile as we had a big play Saturday against them and they have been playing really well their last few games. However, when we saw this line we just had to throw a couple units on the Heat here as this line is just too large, especially for a Warriors team that hasn’t been good at covering lines in the regular season for the last year or so. We just think there is nice value here. This is the Miami freaking Heat not the Kings or the Bulls. The Heat have had a slow start to the season but they have covered four straight in this series and they will very likely give a lot of effort tonight against the defending champs.

Atlanta always seems to get pumped for this matchup and they have won and covered four of the last five meetings. The Celtics are playing great basketball right now and they have won and covered eight straight. But with that success comes inflated lines and this one sure looks inflated tonight. The Hawks are not very good this year but we expect this Atlanta team to be a plucky underdog in spots this year, especially at home. They haven’t yet won a home game this season and that won’t continue long and we think they give extra effort tonight in order to try and secure that first win against a team that has become a bit overrated by oddsmakers. We might throw a few bucks on the moneyline here but we think this many points is too good to pass up.

Portland always plays tough in this series and they have won and covered in four of the last five meetings. The Thunder have gotten off to a real slow start this season at 4-4. And when you look closer at their wins it looks even worse when you see that three of those wins were against the Bulls, Knicks and Pacers. They will face a much tougher test tonight in a Portland team that has been playing well to start the year with a 5-4 start. They have had a couple nights off heading into this game and they should be well rested to defend the home court. The Thunder are still figuring things out and we think they are a bit overvalued in this spot as a road favorite.

Utah has a strong history in this series recently as they have covered three of the last four meetings, winning in all three of those games. The Jazz have been playing great basketball to start the season but they hit a roadblock last time out against the Raptors for their first home loss. They have yet to win on the road but two of those games were really tough matchups and they had that one loss against Phoenix that was just a head scratcher. But we think they will bring their A Game in hopes to get that elusive first road win and show the league that they aren’t only a good home team. Utah has been really good against the number this season at 6-3 ATS and we think that they are undervalued again here. Both of these teams have trended to the under this season but we think the oddsmakers have overadjusted the number here and it seems there is nice value on the over.

Denver is coming in on a back-to-back but they always play the Warriors tough and we expect the same on Saturday night. In fact, Denver won the last meeting, by 22 points, the last time these teams met in this building. They have covered the last two meetings and in seven of the last nine overall. The Warriors looked real good in their last two games in blowing out the Clippers and the Spurs, both on the road. But those are two of Golden State’s biggest rivals and we think they were pretty amped up for those games. But overall they are slogging through the first couple weeks of the season and they are just 3-6 ATS as they have not been bringing a championship effort every night. And teams are giving their best against them in just about every matchup. We think that will be the case here for Denver on Saturday night.

Utah has been excellent this season and they are 5-0 at home. But we think that the Raptors are the better team here at this point in time and we had them as a small road favorite in this matchup. Toronto has won seven of the last eight in this series and they have covered in all eight of those games! That is a trend that has lasted for several years. Utah just played a string of Western Conference rivals and they have a game at Houston on deck and we think they might be in letdown mode tonight against this out-of-conference foe. We think there is great value tonight in going against this false favorite.

The Spurs have lost four straight, but three of those were on the road and last night they lost to a motivated Golden State team that is one of the best squads of all time. This Spurs team just does not lose multiple games that often and they want to end the losing streak tonight at home. Sometimes on back-to-backs Gregg Popovich may rest players. But they are already shorthanded with Leonard out and we think they give full effort tonight. We have taken the Hornets sparingly this season but for us mostly this is a team to fade until Nic Batum comes back as he is one of their key cogs. The Hornets have not beat the Spurs since 2016, losing 10 straight in the series. The Hornets have played well, but they have had a relatively easy schedule and it has been home-heavy as well. We think that the Spurs are being punished too much by the oddsmakers here for the back-to-back but I can’t see a team that will be more motivated to get a win here on Friday night.

The Warriors have struggled to start the season. They are just 2-6 ATS through eight games. But their Monday win at LA Clippers showed that all they have to do is flip a switch and they can be back in championship form. They wanted that win badly against the Clippers and we think that they will be similarly motivated for this contest against the Spurs, arguably the second-best team in the west. The Spurs have started slow as well and they are banged up right now. We don’t think they will be able to have much success against a healthy and motivated Warriors team. Golden State might be a team to fade early season against sub-par opponents or laying big numbers. But with this game on the road and considering the quality of the opponent we think the price is right here and there is a good chance that this game will be a blowout.

We were on the Kings last night and they put in a pitiful performance in a loss at Indiana. We just think that they will play harder tonight against what is already an inflated number. The Kings covered both meetings last season and they even blew the Celtics out in one game at home. The Celtics have had nothing but big games against marquee opponents this season so far but this is the first game against a pretty much meaningless opponent and it is probably human nature for this team to be in a letdown spot tonight. That is not a good place to be when laying such a massive number like the Celtics are tonight!

The Bucks are coming in on a back-to-back and they lost last night to the Thunder but this team faces a big drop off in competition tonight as they travel to Charlotte. Milwaukee has won and covered the last two meetings between these teams. The closest out of those contests was a nine-point win about a week ago. This is the start of a four-game road trip for the Bucks, and we think they will want to get off to a strong start in a very winnable game after getting blown out last night. We think they are the better team in this matchup.

The Suns have won three of four since their coaching chance but they face a much tougher test tonight against one of the best teams in the east. This Phoenix team is coming in on a back-to-back after a win last night in Brooklyn where they expended a lot of energy. Washington has had a couple nights off and they will be anxious for a big win here after coming back from a west coast swing where things didn’t go as well as they would have hoped. The Wizards have covered in three of four games and we think they are rested and poised for a massive blowout win tonight against a fatigued Suns squad that is in over their heads.

The Pacers have been decent to start the season but there’s no way this team should be favored by this many points against any team in the league. The Kings have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four but the oddsmakers have overadjusted here. The Kings have had a very tough schedule to open the season but this is a real winnable game for them so we expect them to go all out. Their tough schedule up to this point will help them as they face this weaker opponent. Indiana is coming off a win against the Spurs and they play at Cleveland tomorrow so this is more of a meaningless game for them and we expect the effort to be with the road team here.

We almost always take the Warriors when they play the Clippers as this has been a one-sided rivalry lately. But we think that LA is in a great position to challenge the Warriors tonight and even maybe win this game. Golden State is 1-6 ATS this season and the oddsmakers are not adjusting to their slow start. They are on a back-to-back here after losing at home to the Pistons last night and now they face a big step up in competition against a team that is really going to play their best game against the team they want to beat the most.

Orlando is playing very well to start off the season and we think that this line is too steep. The Magic are averaging a full seven points more on offense than the Pelicans and their defensive points per game allowed is very similar to that of New Orleans. We think that this will be a close game and we think that this is a live underdog tonight. New Orleans just came off a big win at home against Cleveland and they have a tough game vs. Minnesota coming up next so we think they may look past this Magic team tonight. This Orlando team looks like a real scrappy ballclub that will cover some big lines this season as expectations are low and they have been playing beyond them so far this season.

San Antonio has a strong history in this series where they have covered six of the last seven meetings. The Spurs have dropped two straight games so we think they bring their A Game tonight to get out of this road trip with a split. The Spurs don’t lose three in a row often. Boston has been very solid in winning three straight games but they haven’t played anyone on the same level as the Spurs. San Antonio is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Boston and we expect them to have success again in a building they have played so well in the past.

The Warriors are 1-5 ATS this season thus far. This team we think is following more in the footsteps of teams like the Cavs and Spurs who don’t take the regular season that seriously and concentrate on the postseason. Golden State was not very good at the start of last season, either, especially against double-digit spreads. They are coming off that hard-fought win over Washington, a team they have a lot of history with, and they have road games at Clippers (tomorrow) and Spurs coming up. They are probably not concentrating that much on this opponent tonight and we think the Pistons will be able to keep this one close. Detroit is 5-1 ATS this season so it’s obvious they are a bit underrated by the bookies right now.

Charlotte has completely dominated this series, going 5-0 SU and ATS during the last five meetings. We think this line is short once again on Sunday. Both teams are coming in off a different side of a blowout as the Hornets lost big to Houston while the Magic upset the Spurs. That is why we are getting a nice line tonight but this is a whole new game and the Hornets are the better ballclub here. The Magic have had a nice start to the season for sure but we think that they will come back to reality tonight against a team they have not had much success against. Both teams have been playing pretty strong defense (Charlotte allowing less than 100 per game and both teams allowing around 42% shooting from the field). We think this will be a low-scoring game and the Hornets pull away in the fourth.

The Pistons have been inconsistent and the LA Clippers are one of the last undefeated teams left in the NBA, but we have to say that this line is inflated here on Saturday night. This is a sandwich game for the Clippers. They are coming off a big game at Portland where Blake Griffin sank a buzzer-beating three at the buzzer for a one-point win, and then they play their arch enemy, Golden State, on Monday. There is a very good chance that they will overlook this Eastern Conference opponent tonight. And even if they play their best, the Pistons are not a pushover. They are coming off a 20+-point win over Minnesota and will be coming into Staples Center with a lot of confidence. We might throw a buck or two on the moneyline as well, but we think these points are too many to pass up.

Both teams wowed on offense in Game 4 and the Cavs probably played their best game of the season on the offensive end. We just don’t think that will happen again and we think the Warriors make some adjustments on the defensive end to make sure nothing like that happens. We are getting the highest total of the series here by a bunch, and we think it’s time to strike for the under for our big play for Monday. The Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the league even though their numbers don’t show it because they play at such a fast pace. But this team is pissed about how Game 4 went down and we expect them to lock down more on defense. It’s a good choice to think the Cavs will probably cool off big time compared to Game 4 now that they are here on the road. We said before our Game 4 pick on Cleveland that we thought they would give one last gasp and that the Warriors might take their foot off the gas a bit and we think that’s just what happened but now we have an extra motivated Warriors team here that will take care of business and we think that Cleveland will struggle to put up enough points to get this one over the enormous total.

We have been on Golden State for all three games of these NBA Finals but the odds have finally risen to where the Cavs have some betting value. They had Game 3 all but won but you have to be up by 10+ with even a minute left against this team as they can get hot in a hurry and the Cavs missed some key shots that sunk them. Game 3 is so crucial in a 7-game series and the Warriors got the win and now this series is all but over. We think they may take their foot off the gas just a bit tonight and the Cavs are a prideful team and we expect to see the best game from them and we think that this will be another close game just like Game 3 and we could see the Cavs winning this one but think it could go either way. Golden State had all the betting value through three games but now the line indicates the Cavs have value in our opinion. We have released a totals play for every game in this series but had to stay away tonight as the number has risen just too much and we just can’t play the under with the way the Warriors offense has been dominating. However, we do think that the Cavs might make a big defensive stand here and even the Warriors have a bad game offensively where they have cold spells from the field. With the series basically wrapped up for all intents and purposes maybe the Warriors aren’t completely in the zone and there is always that thought in the back of their minds that they could go home and win it in front of the home fans in Game 5.

Cleveland didn’t play too well offensively in the two games in Golden State but Game 2 still soared over the posted total by nearly 25 points. The bookies posted a higher number here for Game 3 but we still think it’s not high enough. Cleveland will probably do better on offense and pace will be a big part of that but we don’t think there is anything they can do to stop the Golden State offense. They are playing probably their best basketball of their golden era right now and are one of if not THE best team of all time. Their offense is pretty much unstoppable right now. If Gregg Popovich of the Spurs, in our opinion the best coach in any sport, could not do anything to stop this offense then that means Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue is in way over his head. Golden State is even more dangerous when they are motivated. They haven’t lost in the playoffs yet and we get the feeling that finishing off the playoffs with an unblemished record is a big priority for this team just like the regular-season wins record was last season. This team is a collection of massive egos. While big ego is a negative thing in everyday life it’s a great thing in sports because when you are putting your money behind a team like this you can expect the best results on a nightly basis and we just don’t see the Cavs putting up enough of a fight here and we don’t think they have the defensive chops to slow Golden State down as no one has been able to lately.

We were on Golden State in Game 1 and we had a great feeling that they would come out strong to start the series. We don’t see them letting up here in Game 2 and we think that this series is much more of a mismatch as it might seem to most. Cleveland is a very good team that plays in a weak conference but Golden State is a great team that plays in one of the tougher conferences in the history of the league in the current Western Conference. Many people like to use the zig zag theory when it comes to handicapping the NBA Finals and we know Cleveland will be a popular bet on Sunday but we think that Cleveland was very lucky to win last year and they ran into a Warriors team that had simply run out of gas. We thought the bookies may have posted a Game 2 line to make the Warriors more attractive to bettors looking to play the zig zag but they made the line even higher for Golden State but we don’t think it will matter as we think this one will be a double-digit winner. We also like the pace that these teams played at on Thursday and we think the rust is off now and that the scoring will be up from Game 1.

We think these are some very weak numbers for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. We think Golden State is much better than a favorite of this number as they have revenge for losing last year and also lots of time off to prepare. Yes, this team lost this series last season but they did things all wrong in the regular season by chasing the season wins record and they just ran out of gas with a big advantage in the Finals and let the Cavs come back and win it. They didn’t make the same mistake this season. They did things right and they took it easy more in the regular season and some people were even wondering if this team was as good as last season. They are every bit as good and even better. Cleveland rolled through the playoffs but the east was very weak and they didn’t face the same type of competition as Golden State did. But the Warriors have been in Championship Mode since the stretch run of the regular season and this team is playing as good as they ever have right now. This is one of the best teams in NBA history and Cleveland doesn’t fall into that category as far as we are concerned. They will play with a chip on their collective shoulders in this series and that is when this team is the most dangerous. We think both teams will get their points here but we don’t think the Cavs will be able to keep up for four quarters and we think there’s a great chance that this one winds up in the 230s or above.

We had the Cavs in Game 4 and they probably would have covered if there had been one more minute in the game. They could have went for a shot to push or cover but they just dribbled the shot clock out. But we have a more manageable line here for Game 5 and we aren’t worried about the lack of home-court advantage because the Cavs won in blowouts in both games in Boston. The Cavs know that the Warriors are resting right now and they don’t want to leave anything to chance here to let Boston come back like they did in Game 3 and we think that this one will be all Cleveland for four quarters. Boston is still a piece or two away from really being a contender for the NBA Championship and the Cavs have that type of team right now and we are confident this will be a double-digit blowout.

The Cavs got a double-whammy of urgency after both losing Game 3 at home to Boston and also with the Warriors finishing their series against San Antonio in a sweep. Now Golden State is resting until this series is over and the NBA Finals start so it’s urgent for the Cavs to finish this one off and put the Celtics to bed. We don’t like laying this many points typically but we think the Cavs are the only way to go here. Boston had their moment of glory in Game 3 but we think this one will be all Cleveland from here on out. The Cavs were up by as many as 21 in Game 3 but they took their foot off the gas and the Celtics played just about the best they can with the current roster and won the game on a buzzer-beater. We see Cleveland playing more of a complete game here and if they are as motivated as we think they will be tonight they should have no problem covering this large number.

We had the Celtics in the east in Game 3 and they won straight up as massive underdogs and now we think that this game will follow a similar script here in the west. Golden State and Cleveland seem very competitive between each other already and we are not even to the NBA Finals. Once one team reaches an achievement then the other team tries to outdo them. And now that the Cavs lost Game 3 we think the Warriors might let up a little bit here. This is the most value-packed line for the Spurs all series and we think they are getting too many points. Kawhi Leonard is doubtful here but the Celtics showed that a proud team can rise up without its best player and we think the Spurs will play with a lot of pride here tonight. We were on the Warriors in every game this series but we think the value has switched over to the other side. The crowd will be crazy here and we have a feeling Popovich has something up his sleeve tonight to get the best out of his team. Not sure the Spurs can win this one straight out as the Warriors are just too good, but we do think the Spurs can keep this one within double digits and this team just won’t roll over tonight.

We liked the opening line in this game and we expected Thomas to be out and now that he has been ruled out for the playoffs this number has jumped even higher and we just think this is a bit of a ridiculous number. We love to back a team that was humiliated in their last game and we think the Celtics will play with a lot of pride tonight. This team has never been about one guy. This squad has played some of the best team basketball in the NBA this season and this is a prideful bunch and we think that they will go all out on the defensive end tonight and keep this game close. We think the Cavs will settle down a bit and they won’t play with the same hunger that they did last time out. The Celtics had one of the worst games in franchise history last game and we just think they will really step up tonight and the Cavs will not get as many easy baskets as they have for the first couple games of the series. When we look at his line we have to say this is not the Phoenix Suns this is the Boston Celtics and they are getting way too many points tonight. This one could be a blowout and we can still cover.

We don’t think the extra days off or change in venue are going to help the Spurs too much in this Game 3 tonight. Of course the big story here is that Kawhi Leonard is questionable. We don’t think it will make a difference if he plays or not in this one. This is an injury that would probably keep him out significantly in the regular season so if they throw him in there it might so more harm than good, especially since the Warriors will play at a very high pace and the Spurs rely on Leonard for a lot of their defensive efforts. Playing on a bum ankle will probably hurt the team more than help on the defensive end. If he doesn’t play then their offense is really in trouble as they have to keep up with the best offense in the game. The NBA’s two best teams seem on a collision course for the NBA Finals and there is nothing that is going to stand in their way. Both teams want to end these series early in order to get the most rest possible before the NBA Finals. Golden State saw what Cleveland did to Boston last night and they will now want to one-up the Cavs. These teams really want to pound their opponents and they won’t let up at the end of the game. We really thought that this line should be closer to 9 and we would still like the Warriors at that number and we think they will win by double digits again. The Spurs would be outmatched even at full strength but with two starters likely out (Tony Parker and Leonard) the Spurs are at even more of a disadvantage and they really look like they don’t believe they have any chance in this series. And they are right.

This is what we took for Game 1 but we think both of these plays will cash tonight just like they did for the first game in this ECF matchup. Boston got off to a real slow start in Game 1 and shot terribly from the floor. That should improve tonight and we think they will play more of a complete game so we won’t have to sweat out this total until the end. Even with Boston unable to make many shots in the first half of Game 1 this one still got over the posted total. It’s doubtful to think that they will go that cold again. And we just don’t think that the Celtics can match the Cavs on the court and Cleveland can easily score 120+ in this game. They have been simply dominant in this playoffs and we think they want to sweep this series really bad and they have a chance with a win tonight. Boston let the Wizards hang around too long and now they are at a severe disadvantage in this series after playing in Game 7 while the Cavs had plenty of time to rest.

These teams averaged almost 225 points in four regular-season meetings. The first meeting this season made it all the way to 250. Both teams are playing really well on offense right now. Cleveland scored 109 or more in all four of their games in their sweep of Toronto. We don’t think they will be rusty because after a long layoff last series they came right out and scored 116 against the Raptors so they were able to pick up right where they left off. Boston has averaged 124 points in their last four home games on offense, and although we don’t think they can keep up with this fresh Cavs team we do think they will be able to score their fair share of points to get this one over the posted number. We think both teams will run a lot here and there’s a great chance that this one will wind up above 220. It could go well above that number as long as the Celtics avoid any lengthy cold shooting streaks.

Game 1 went over the total easily and that was with the Warriors really rusty in the first half. They came to life in the second half and got back into playoff form and we think that will continue here. The Spurs are a team we liked a lot during the regular season. But this team just does not compare to the Warriors, probably one of the best teams of all time, even at full strength. But they are not anywhere near full strength tonight missing Parker and likely Leonard as well. The Spurs have shown in these playoffs they can score without Leonard and we think they will be able to score enough to make up their share to get this one over the posted number but we expect the Warriors to continue where they left off as they scored 71 in the second half of Game 1 and we just think this is a mismatch with the banged-up Spurs and a motivated Warriors team tonight.

Boston has averaged 125 points in their three home games in this series and we think they will play well on offense tonight after a lousy effort on that front in Game 6. You get the feeling that Washington gave everything they had in Game 6 to win it at the end, and the Celtics were robbed of an extra second on the clock that could have given them more time for the game-winning shot at the end of the game. We always said we thought that this series would go to Game 7 and now we are here. But we think that the Celtics will win this one big. They have covered in all three home games in this series and they have covered in five of the last seven meetings overall. This has been a good series but the better team will advance tonight.

With five days off we like the Warriors here to win in a blowout. Yes, Kawhi Leonard is likely to play here but we doubt he is close to 100% and San Antonio is already down a starter in Tony Parker. They have had a much tougher road than the Warriors in these playoffs and just a couple days off coming into this game. The Warriors did everything right this regular season as for not exerting themselves too much while San Antonio played harder in the regular season than we normally see them (and maybe that is why they have had injury issues in the postseason). We like to play the Warriors when they are motivated and we think that motivation kicks into high gear here now that they have a more formidable opponent. But we think Golden State is on a whole other level above the Spurs and we think they flex their muscle here on Sunday.

All five games in this series have been decided by 10 points or more and we think Washington will win this one tonight so we don’t mind laying the number here on Friday. Not only has the home team covered every game in this series but that pattern has been intact in the last nine meetings between these clubs. With so many short series this playoff season we think there will be at least one Game 7 in this round and this one looks like it could be the one. The refs might give the home team some extra love in order for that to happen. The Wizards won their two home games in this series by an average of 23 points and we think they can play that way again here and send this one back to Boston for a deciding Game 7.

The over has hit in four of the five games in this series. And we don’t think that trend will continue tonight. The only game that went under was that game where the Rockets had one of their worst shooting games of the playoffs and the Spurs didn’t play all that well either. But that was way back in Game 3 and these teams have been better offensively since. This one has all the signs of a seven-game series and has been one of the best series of the playoffs so far. We are sure the Rockets will get the favorable calls at home by the refs to give them an extra push to get this series to Game 7. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play much at the end of Game 5 with an ankle sprain and he will likely play here but it’s doubtful he can play to full effectiveness and we think that helps the Rockets and the Over here as he won’t be at his best defensively and Houston will try to push the pace even more with him hobbled.

In our mind Washington has covered three games in this series even though they only covered two. We had them in Game 2 and they should have won and covered but we suffered a bad beat in OT. But they have clearly been undervalued in this series and we think they have grabbed all the momentum in this series with two massive blowouts in Games 3 and 4. We don’t think this one will be a blowout, however, and we expect a close game. But the road team definitely has a chance to win this one straight out. We called a close game in San Antonio last night in Game 5 over in the west after all the games had been blowouts and we think this Game 5 will go down in a similar fashion and we just have to take the points here with the team that is in better form in a series that we have thought was pretty even all along.

Every game in this series has been a blowout but we think we are in store for a close game tonight. All four regular-season matchups were decided by four points or less. We have always liked the Rockets in this series and now that this one is a three-game series we think Houston will take one of these road games. It seems they have regained their shooting touch in Game 4 and we expect it to continue here. The loss of Nene hurts this team but we expect his teammates to rise up in his absence and this seems like a team that can handle adversity well. In a game we expect to be close we have to take the points here and we think Houston is getting a couple too many.

We were on the other side in Game 3 and the Warriors won by 11 even though Utah played well most of the game. But here for Game 4 we are getting probably the best line for Utah in the entire series as they are now getting a big number at home where they try to avoid the sweep in Game 4. The Jazz actually led Game 3 for quite a bit of time and had a nine-point lead at one point. While Toronto basically threw in the towel in their Game 4 and rolled over we think Utah will play with a lot more pride here and they don’t have a lot of pressure in their Game 4 as opposed to Toronto because nobody thought they would get this far anyways. We think they will be loose and will go out there and play their game and we wouldn’t be shocked to see them score a close win here to give the home crowd one last gift before the season ends. We think this will be a close game either way.

We had the Rockets big Game 3 and it was a real head-scratcher of a game. Neither team played well but Houston was just awful. They shoot incredibly poorly. Some of that was the Spurs defense but mostly they were just off. But we still think the Rockets have a great chance to win this series, and they are pretty much in a must-win situation here in Game 4. Harden and the Rockets can’t go too long with this cold shooting and we expect things to turn around in Game 4. We expected Houston to win one of these home games in a blowout and since it didn’t happen in Game 3 we think there is a great chance that Game 4 is the one.

We think there’s a great chance that this one goes to seven games. And we love the way the Wizards have played the last two games. We think they should be up 2-1 here. But they blew Game 2 in OT. But we think these teams are pretty even and we expect the Wizards to take care of business at home in Game 4. After the huge Game 3 win by Washington we handicapped this game at 6.5 with a strong lean to the home team at that line so we love that we are getting a short line here for Sunday. We expect the Wizards to win by 7+ points and set the stage for a three-game series for the right to proceed to the ECF.

Game 3 was Toronto’s big chance to get back in this series and they just fell flat on their face. Now they are playing for nothing more than pride. If they didn’t play hard enough with everything on the line why would they suddenly raise their level of play for just pride? It looks like Kyle Lowry might miss this game as well. They have no chance without him. Cleveland is all about rest as they have played the last couple seasons with rest being a main priority and we think they will want to end this series on Sunday and give themselves a long rest before the winner of Washington/Boston is decided.

The Jazz have snuck in the back door in both Games 1 and 2 with the late cover. But we just haven’t liked the way they played overall in those two games. A couple stretches of cold shooting by the Warriors is the only reason these games weren’t 20-point blowouts. George Hill is questionable here and the Jazz need every single member of the team to be competitive here. The Warriors know how crucial a Game 3 matchup is and the series will essentially be over if they win so we think they go all out to achieve that goal here on Saturday. The Jazz played about the best they can offensively in Game 2 yet still lost big and we just don’t see how they can keep up with the road team tonight unless Golden State just has a real bad game shooting from the floor.

Both Games 1 and 2 were blowouts and we think this one has a good chance to go that way as well. We think the Rockets have a great chance to win this series. Everyone talks about the Clippers failures in the playoff but the Spurs have fallen on their faces in the postseason the last two years with the current core, losing to these same Clippers a couple seasons ago and falling in the second round to the Thunder last season. They just haven’t been as good in the postseason as they have in the regular season and we see Houston taking this one. Yes, Tony Parker is out for the Spurs. He will be out for the rest of the playoffs. That kind of hurts us with this play as I think the casuals put too much stock in Parker’s current abilities and as a result has moved this line from the opening number of 4. But we don’t think the points will matter here. Houston is just a very underrated team. We think that they have a better chance against the Warriors in the conference finals than the Spurs would. And after a lousy Game 2 we think they will bounce back here in Game 3. James Harden had a real bad game in Game 2. He scored only 13 and was 3-for-17. That’s not going to happen again at home and those numbers will probably even out here in Game 3, meaning we expect a big night from the Houston star. In Game 2 Houston went down by 10 at the half and they shot poorly in the second half. And the Spurs shot well above their season average from the floor. Houston will play better defense here at home and the Spurs won’t play as well offensively but we expect a big bounce back from the Rockets offense here. We feel this is a very public line and from what we saw in Game 1 we think the Rockets can win this one by 7+ in this crucial Game 3 matchup.

The Jazz were able to sneak in the back door in Game 1 and we think they will play a better game overall here and we think they can keep this one within double digits. This is an inflated line as far as we are concerned and after playing pretty lousy most of Game 1 we think Utah will play better here. We think they will make more of a contribution on the offensive end to get this one over the posted number. This series has had a bunch of unders, but Game 1 was real close to going over and the Warriors probably took their foot off the gas a bit at the end of that game but we think that this one will be more competitive and the Warriors will still be taking the game seriously late in the fourth. That will help the total here, and we think this will be a very competitive game overall.

We were going to go higher units on Washington here as we thought the spread would be about 4 but it opened at 5 at most shops and has been bet to this number, taking some of the value out of the home team. We still think that the Wizards will win this one and get back in the series. We think this series is pretty close despite the Celtics winning Games 1 and 2. It should be tied now but the Celtics had an amazing comeback in Game 2 and won it in OT. We don’t think Thomas can repeat his Superman performance from Game 2 and the Wizards will probably get a more well-rounded game on their side and Beal’s numbers are sure to even out after a poor shooting night in Game 2. Washington won both games in blowout fashion at home in this series during the regular season, and we expect them to get a comfortable win here.

Game 1 was the first Cleveland blowout in this series since last season. Toronto won big in one regular-season meeting but all the others were Cleveland wins by no more than four points. We just don’t see the Cavs winning big in both home games here to start the series and we think the Raptors are a live dog tonight. Toronto has been good after a loss lately and they are 5-1 ATS after a straight up loss. That means that this team is good at bouncing back lately, and we think that will be the case tonight. Cleveland has been one of the worst ATS teams this season and they are constantly overvalued by the oddsmakers. We certainly think that is the case tonight as normally the team that loses Game 1 is tabbed to bounce back and play better in Game 2 but we are getting an even better line here.

We think that Utah built a lot of momentum in their series win over the Clippers. We think that will carry over here. Everyone is criticizing the Clippers for losing to an “inferior” team, but we were very impressed with the Jazz and their defense, especially in their Game 7 performance in LA in the close out game. We love the Jazz here getting this many points and feel they will keep this one within double digits. They were able to control the pace in almost every game against the Clippers and they held them under 100 (one of the best offensive teams in the NBA) in six of the seven games of the series. We think that they will be able to disrupt the Warriors offense a bit and slow them down, and that makes all these points even more valuable. Golden State made it look easy against Portland but they face a much better team here in the second round and the Jazz will be competitive here. The nightlife isn’t the only reason the Warriors wanted to play the Clippers because they have a mental edge over that team but we don’t think they own the same against Utah and the Jazz will give everything they have in this series.

In Game 1 the Wizards hung right with the Celtics most of the game but they had a real poor third quarter where they were outscored by 20 points and that was the difference in the game. We had Boston in Game 1 for our free pick but we are going to use the zig zag theory here and we expect the road team to play a more complete game here on Tuesday night. Boston has now won five straight games after going down 2-0 in their series against the Bulls but for that reason we think they are starting to get overvalued because normally in this case the odds would sway towards the road team that is desperate for a win. We think they will play much better here and we expect a close game as we don’t see Washington playing two lousy games in a row.

Houston has a real chance to win this playoff series. There are three real legit teams in the west this year and these are two of them. We think the Rockets are getting a very nice number here and we think that this series will be competitive. The Spurs have had some struggles in the playoffs in recent years and their postseason results don’t really match their regular-season successes. They had a tougher time with Memphis than they should have in the first round and now they face a much better squad. The Spurs won three of four meetings in the regular season but all the games were close and we don’t think that this one is very different. And most of the pressure seems like it’s on the Spurs here as no one is talking about Houston much and this line is off as well as we thought 3.5 would be more appropriate and we would lean to the Rockets at that number as well.

We like the underdog to cover here in Game 1 on Monday. The Cavs aren’t as good as they were the last couple of seasons and this team has been overrated by the oddsmakers all season long. It wouldn’t be surprising if they were unseated in the east this year. Toronto probably doesn’t have the horses to get it done, but Boston will be a good series if both advance. Cleveland swept the Pacers but all the games were close and six points was the largest margin of victory. Now they face an even better team. Their last game was 4/23 so there is a good chance they are rusty for this one too and a couple missed buckets at the start of the game that would otherwise go in can really help the underdog tonight. The Cavs won three of four regular-season meetings but none were by more than four points. Toronto is a lice dog tonight and the Cavs should face even more adversity in this series than they did against the Pacers.

Utah put up quite a fight in this series but now they are in a real bad position after blowing it in Game 6 at home. That was a pretty easy win for the Clippers and we think the momentum will carry over here into this Game 7. The Clippers, as most NBA teams, are much better at home and they have had some success here in Game 7s (remember that epic game against San Antonio?). The Clippers aren’t as good without Blake Griffin but Jamal Crawford started to heat up in Game 6 and J.J. Redick should contribute here as well. The Jazz have a nice team and a solid defense but now that home-court advantage is back in the Clippers hands we think they will take advantage and will be the lucky team to likely get swept by the Warriors. LA is the better team even without Blake and Chris Paul really seems like he is on a mission to win this one and having the best player on the court normally makes a big difference in these types of Game 7 situations.

This is do or die for the Clippers and maybe the last stand of this franchise as we know it with the current core of players. The Clippers have not played up to expectations in this series, even with Blake Griffin out of the lineup. But this matchup is still close and we just think that this is too many points tonight in what we expect to be a hotly-contested game on both sides. We have to assume LA will leave everything on the floor tonight and that they will establish the pace to get this one over the posted total. We have always thought this series would go to Game 7 as most of the Clippers playoff series have, and we think they will shoot better from the floor tonight.

We like the Celtics to close this thing out tonight. The road team has mostly been the bet so far in this series. And we think that trend will continue tonight. The Celtics had some off-court distractions that held them back in Games 1 and 2 but they have played up to expectations since and we think they are being underrated by the oddsmakers here tonight. We had this line handicapped at Boston -6 so we think there is some nice value on the road team laying this small number.

The home team has dominated this series and as we go to Game 6 in Memphis we think the Grizzlies will give one last stand. They really match up pretty well with the Spurs and were in Game 5 most of the way until San Antonio really turned it on late. But we think the Griz will play well tonight and keep this one close throughout. They should feed off the crowd energy to keep playing hard until the final buzzer, win or lose. Four out of the five games in this series have gone over the posted total and the bookies haven’t made a big enough adjustment here. Memphis has surpassed the century mark in all of the last three games (one in OT) and we think they will score enough to both cover and get this one over the posted number.

Milwaukee is going to be good in a year or two. Potentially really good if they can stay healthy and add a piece or two. But they have lost the momentum in this series and we think this one ends tonight. Toronto’s offense has really come on and the Bucks really seem to have lost their defensive edge as they gave up 118 in the last game, a blowout loss in Toronto. The two nights off here really benefits the better team, and the Raptors are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee. We really thought that Toronto should be at least -2 here and we expect them to win tonight. They have been playing more like a team and have more scoring options and the further we have gotten into this series it’s evident that the Bucks are a one-man show.

The road team has won every game in this series. We don’t think that trend is sustainable, but we also think the road team is getting too many points tonight. For whatever reason the Celtics have not been good on their home court lately as they have covered in only one of their last nine games here. They are 17-26 ATS this season at home. This one is just a three-game series now and the Bulls have a real chance here with a win. Not sure they will get it, but this should be a close game. We just don’t think the Celtics will complete three straight blowouts in this series and we think they are once again overrated by the oddsmakers at home.

We were surprised that the Wizards played so poorly in Atlanta but now that they are back home we expect them to reestablish their dominance in this series. The home team has dominated this series both ATS and SU, and we expect that trend to continue tonight. Remember, although the Wizards played better on the road down the stretch they are only 19-24 at home but an almost unbeatable 32-11 at home this season. We think they come out fired up in this one and we think that this could be a double-digit win tonight. Washington was really good ATS this season at home and we think their home-court advantage will be the difference as they put Atlanta on the brink of elimination tonight.

We always like to get our vision of how a playoff series will unfold and then pick the individual games accordingly. And we think this one has all the attributes of a 7-game series. And why not? It seems like in every playoff series the Clippers play they find a way to disappoint and the underdog takes them to a Game 7. But we think they will play well tonight. They are being punished on this line for the loss of Blake Griffin but the team is OK without him as they have some guys that will benefit from more touches and Chris Paul is a maestro at point guard and will make the players around him better. Utah’s best player, Gordon Hayward, has to leave Game 4 after a few minutes because of bad food poisoning. He is an elite athlete and has the best training staff available, but it still is real hard to get over this type of illness quickly. So we don’t think he will be 100%. We think LA wins this and they should be able to do enough to cover this small number.

We think the OKC and Memphis lines could have been switched as the Rockets are pulling away in their series while the Grizzlies have captured momentum and are very much in this series. The bottom line here is that this is just too many points, especially since this total is in the high 180s; the lower the score the more valuable the points are for the underdog. Yes, San Antonio won by double-digit blowouts in their first two games. But in an NBA Playoff series teams become to know each other real well and although the Spurs will likely win this one we don’t think the Grizzlies will let this one become out of hand. Memphis is playing with a lot of confidence right now. And the Spurs have struggled in the playoffs the last couple years and maybe this team is just built more for regular season success than the playoffs. Regardless, we think this will be another close game.

We think Houston is the much better team in this matchup and it is imperative for them to close things out tonight as they want to get some rest before the second round. We think they will go all out to do that. The Thunder seem resigned to their fate after the frustration set in after Game 4 with Westbrook’s new conference tirade. Yes, that’s pretty cool that he was defending his teammates and all, but that is not the type of distraction you need to create when your team is down 3-1 in a playoff series. Houston has covered in 13 of the last 16 meetings in this series and we think they are in a prime spot to end this series with a double-digit win tonight. We thought that this line should be close to 10.

We always thought that the Wizards would win one game in Atlanta and it didn’t happen in Game 3 so we think it’s very likely to happen in Game 4, and as a result we had the Wizards as a whooping 4-point favorite in this one, meaning there is some amazing value here with the underdog. Washington got off to a slow start this season but they have been one of the best teams in the second half of the season and this team seems built to win this series to us. They lost their season opening game to the Hawks but they won all of the most recent three regular-season meetings and this team is just much better than the Hawks. And now the pressure is dialed up as they don’t want the Hawks to win this one and even the series up going back to DC for Game 5. They have some tougher opponents on the horizon and need to finish this one off ASAP, so getting the win here and putting the Hawks on the brink of elimination heading home for Game 5 is a scenario that they want and need to happen. Washington didn’t show a lot of urgency in Game 3 but they will show it tonight and we expect to see a completely different outcome than we saw there. And getting this many points means in case this is a close game and the Wiz lose a close one that we are protected a bit by the points. But we don’t think we will need them tonight as the Wizards should win straight up.

Toronto earned a road win last time out to even up the series and now the series heads back to Canada for Game 5 tonight. That win and cover was the first time the Raptors covered in five meetings between these clubs (the first three in this playoff series and the last meeting in the regular season). We still like Milwaukee to win this series and we think they will either win this Game 5 or be really competitive. They just had a horrible offensive night in Game 4 in scoring only 76 points on 37 percent shooting from the floor. They were also horrible from three-point land in going 5-of-21. A big part of that was a solid Toronto defense but also the shots just weren’t falling. But we think those numbers will even out tonight, and in a series with such low-scoring games as this one that makes the points with the underdog even more attractive.

Blake Griffin is out and this Clippers team can get by with CP3 and DeAndre Jordan and they will still probably win this series. But we have seen how this team deals with major injuries in the postseason in the past, and we expect to see a lot of feeling sorry for themselves tonight. Chris Paul played out of his mind to bring this team back in Game 3. But can we expect two performances in a row from him like this? Judging by history that’s doubtful. This is a must-win game for the Jazz tonight and we think they will take care of business at home. We can see this series going to 7 games as most of the Clippers playoff series have in the past, and that would mean a Utah win tonight. The Clippers actually played better in Game 3 after BG left the game and they can do some damage without him but we expect morale to be low here for the road team and the home team should be primed for a big performance.

Wasn’t ever too worried for Boston after they started 0-2 in this series with two home losses. They had some major off-court distractions that really affected the team. But they were uber-focused in Game 3 and we expect them to even the series up here on Sunday. Of course underdog teams can catch lightning in a bottle at any time but we just think that this Bulls team stinks and they barely made the playoffs. Boston is maybe one of the weaker No. 1 seeds in recent memory but they are still a much better team and the No. 8’s have such a torrid history in this matchup for a reason. Boston recaptured the momentum in this series and with one win today they reclaim home-court advantage in a three-game series and they will again be a heavy favorite to win this. We wouldn’t be surprised if this one was another blowout like Game 3.

The Thunder got a win last time out to save their chances for the series but they played about the best game they could at home in Game 3 and still won by only two points. We think it’s very telling that the line has shrunk from the Game 3 line and we think the Rockets win this game to put OKC on the brink of elimination. When both are playing their best Harden and Westbrook cancel each other out but the rest of the Houston team is much better than the roleplayers from OKC, and we had this game handicapped at Houston -3 so we think there is some really nice value here. Houston really struggled from three-point land in Game 3 and the Thunder shot well above average from three-point land and the floor in general. And for that disparity in shooting for the home team to win by only two tells us a lot. We think these numbers equal out and we think that there’s a great chance Houston wins this by 5+.

This line was a bit surprising to us as well after Game 2 saw the Warriors win by 39 points. This is just a major mismatch and we think Golden State will win this by 10+. Kevin Durant could rejoin the team tonight and if he does this line is sure to rise. But don’t wait for his status to be assured, just bet the game. Golden State has been in playoff mode for a couple weeks and they know they can end this series in four games and they will go for the jugular tonight. Portland had their big game in Game 1 and they played about the best they could and still lost by 12. We think we will see the best of the Warriors here tonight.

The Spurs had a bad game in Game 3. It happens to even the best teams. The Warriors and Cavs faced their share of playoff troubles en route to the NBA Finals last year.  But we aren’t going to punish San Antonio too much for that game. In fact, we think this team will come out as focused as ever. They need to finish these teams off fast to be in the best position to beat Golden State if these teams meet in the WCF like expected. And we know the mindset of this team and after a loss they are probably going to treat this like a Game 7 and go all out for the win, especially after getting run off the floor and embarrassed last time out. The Grizzlies are good but they are down this year from past squads and we think the Spurs win big here tonight.

When we saw this line we had to rub our eyes as we thought that the Wizards should be favored here. Washington has made it look easy in winning and covering the first two games of this series, and we don’t think they have played their best game yet, either. We think they have a great chance for the sweep here against an overrated Hawks team. They have now covered in four of the last five meetings between these clubs and we think the two nights off really plays to the advantage of the better team here. The Wizards got better on the road as the season went on and we think they have the upper hand in this matchup as they know they need to finish Atlanta off early and a win here means the series is all but over. They scored 109 and 114 in Games 1 and 2 and we think they can get near 115 again. The bookies adjusted this totals number down but we think they should have gone the other way.