Sports Picks & Predictions

4 Unit Play. Take #770 North Carolina over Michigan (1:30p.m., Thursday, November 28 ESPN) Michigan has been impressive thus far but this will be the strongest team they have faced this season. North Carolina has just been going through the motions thus far but feel they will break out in this game and advance to the finals of the Battle for Atlantis.

Happy Thanksgiving – Doc’s Sports

Portland just doesn’t seem to have it this season. They are 6-12 on the season and, although they have played a road-heavy schedule so far, they are just 1-4 at home. They are just coming off a disastrous road trip where they went 2-4 with only wins over the struggling Bulls and Spurs. This will be the tricky first game home after a long road trip. This is a game where the home team sometimes struggles as the players often have their minds on their life off the court and there are plenty of distractions. The Thunder have been a good betting team at 10-6 ATS, and this new mix of players has had their moments. They have been playing strong defense for sure. This looks like a very winnable game for the road team, and with the day off tomorrow we think the Thunder will be the more focused team in this matchup, They also have revenge for an October loss in OKC in a game that was very close. We see this one as close also and think the road team will do what needs to be done to eek out a close win at the final buzzer.

7 Unit Play. Take #738 Penn State over Mississippi (5p.m., Wednesday, November 27 ESPN2) The Lions always seem to play well in New York and have had good success in the post season NIT this century (winning it twice since 2009). They have a dominating win against Georgetown and return 4 starters from their squad from last season. The Rebels are coming off a loss last time out to Memphis, a team that was playing without their all-everything player in James Wiseman. Penn State is 12-2 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 16 games. 76% of the money is coming in on Penn State and they will win this game by 7-9 points.

Washington has covered in five of the last six matchups, and they look primed for another cover tonight. This team is 9-4-1 ATS this season. That’s a great betting recipe for success when a team isn’t getting wins on the court but covering numbers. They can hold value for a long time since they escape the public’s radar. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS when getting four or more points this season, and it looks like they are being underestimated again tonight against a Denver team that is overvalued despite their 12-3 record as they are just 7-7-1 ATS.

4 Unit Play. Take #667 Wisconsin over New Mexico (5p.m., Tuesday, November 26 ESPN2) The Badgers need this game to avoid dropping both games in Brooklyn after a disappointing performance last night against Richmond. The Lobos got blown out last night and I see them losing this game by 8-10 points. Wisconsin will shoot it better this afternoon and they is an NCAA Tournament team, the same cannot be said about New Mexico. Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against MWC teams.

3 Unit Play. Take #826 Bradley over Northwestern (8:30p.m., Monday, November 25 FS1) Northwestern has fallen off the last few years and it does not appear they will be able to get back to the NCAA Tournament anytime soon. The Braves made the NCAA Tournament last year and have started this season with a 4-1 record. They will be motivated for this game to beat a Big 10 team from the state of Illinois. Bradley is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Big 10 teams. Northwestern is 7-18 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 27 games.

Philly hasn’t been any good on the road, where they are 4-5 on the season, while the Raptors are a perfect 6-0 at home. The Raptors were expected to take a step back this season after losing Kawhi Leonard, but they have way exceeded expectations so far. They are 11-4 and have been profitable ATS at 9-6. We think they are being undervalued here again by the oddsmakers. Some very nice value on an early-season line.

4 Unit Play. Take #828 Wisconsin over Richmond (7p.m., Monday, November 25 ESPN2) This line should be much higher. Richmond has a lame duck coach and a bunch of young players that will get destroyed in this game. This will be the Spiders first game away from Richmond and they will struggle to keep this game in single digits. Wisconsin is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Atlantic 10 teams. Richmond is 0-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 games against Big 10 teams.

3 Unit Play. Take #741 Florida over Xavier (8:30p.m., Sunday, November 24 ESPN) The Gators have gotten off to a slow start and need to start putting things together in order to earn some quality wins before SEC play. This team was on a lot of analysts Final Four predictions and they have a lot of talent. Xavier is 0-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 games against teams from the SE. Florida is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.

3 Unit Play. Take #748 Nevada over Valparaiso (5:30p.m., Sunday, November 24) Nevada has a veteran team and they can win most of their games against teams without great athletic ability. The Crusaders have played a very easy schedule thus far similar to Fordham, the Wolf Pack’s game one opponent. Valpo is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Nevada is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 MVC games.  

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

3 Unit Play. Take #728 LSU over Rhode Island (2:30p.m., Sunday, November 24 CBSSN)

We think this is a good spot for the Grizzlies on Saturday. The Lakers come in on a back-to-back after the second part of their home-and-home against the Thunder and this just feels like a letdown spot for them as they take a step down in competition. While the Lakers are coming in with no rest, the Grizzlies have had three nights off and they should be primed for a strong showing as an underdog. They had won three straight, including a win at home vs. Utah, so we know they can compete here if focused. But they come off two bad losses so they will likely be really focused on a strong performance here. We think they will get it.

6 Unit Play. Take #657 Arizona State over St Johns (2:30p.m., Saturday November 23 ESPN3) The Red Storm made a play to hire Bobby Hurley last April, but he chose to stay with a better situation at Arizona State. He holds a grudge like few others, and you know he does not want to lose to Mike Anderson in this game. St Johns is in a complete rebuild and they have not been that impressive against some weak teams to open the season. They lost to Vermont and do not have a quality win on the season. Arizona State beat St Johns in the play-in NCAA Tournament games last season to advance to the round of 64. ASU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Big East teams. St. Johns is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against PAC-12 teams.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

3 Unit Play. Take #818 USC over Temple (11p.m., Friday, November 22 PAC12N) Temple has a new coach and system and they have played cupcakes to open up the season. USC is more battled tested and have great size that should be able to do damage in this game. The Owls are 7-18 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 27 nonconference games. USC has covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games.

3 Unit Play. Take #810 Oregon over Houston (9p.m., Friday, November 22 PAC12N) Houston lost a bunch of talent from last year and they have not been impressive this year. They lost to BYU on a buzzer beater and struggled to put away Rice giving up 89 points last time out. The Ducks are 4-0 this year and they have not been in a competitive game. Oregon is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 nonconference games. Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a victory in their previous games.

The main reason we like this play is that the Pistons should not be laying this many points to anyone. This team has currently lost five straight and they haven’t covered in any of those contests. Atlanta has lost seven of eight. They have had a ridiculously tough schedule, however. In their last three games, they finished off a five-game road trip with visits to Staples to face the Clippers and Lakers and then came back home to face Miami. That’s probably the three best teams in the NBA. But now they are going way down in class tonight. They seem to normally play well against Detroit and have covered three straight meetings and five of six. This is the biggest favorite Detroit has been all season, and they are 1-3 ATS as a favorite at any number so far.

The Blazers have gotten off to a poor start this season at 5-10, and the Bucks look like arguably the most complete team in the NBA right now. But this is just way too many points for a Blazers team that is pretty solid even with Lillard sidelined tonight. This is by far the most points that the Blazers have received on the handicap this season, and the Bucks are just 1-3 ATS when they are laying big points like this. They normally get the job done but don’t blow teams out as big favorites, and we expect a similar showing tonight in Milwaukee.

3 Unit Play. Take #696 Georgia over Georgia Tech (7p.m., Wednesday, November 20 SECN+) Both teams are undefeated, but I just do not see a light at the end of the tunnel for Georgia Tech. They have a terrible coach and cannot play in postseason play this season. The Bulldogs have a proven coach in Tom Crean and should get better this year and expect them to make the NCAA Tournament next year. The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 nonconference games.

The Suns are one of the best betting teams in the league at 9-3 ATS on the season. We think they are undervalued here again tonight. They are being punished too much by the oddsmakers are a back-to-back here, and this team is young and so is the season, so we don’t think it’s as big of a deal as the oddsmakers do. We just can’t help but remember the last time these teams squared off, last month, with one of the more one-sided second halves we have seen this season with the Suns outscoring the Kings 70-36 in the second half of a rout. We think Phoenix matches up well here tonight also.  They have covered in five of the last seven meetings. We think they have a great chance to win this outright, and we had the Suns, who we think are a better team, laying one point on our line.

4 Unit Play. Take #635 Charleston over Marshall (7p.m., Tuesday, November 19) The Thundering Herd are a different team this year without Jon Elmore and C.J. Burks. They are coming off back to back losses by double digits and they will be a middle of the pack team this year in Conference USA. The Cougars are 2-1 this season with just a loss to Oklahoma State on their docket. Charleston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Conference USA teams. Marshall is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss in their previous game.

The Pacers are just the better team in this matchup right now. Brooklyn gpt a lot of attention this offseason for some big moves, but they are being lined like a superstar team right now but Durant will not be here until likely next season. Right now they are just another decent team trying to find their way. Remember, Kyrie Irving never did much to lead his team to big places before he teamed up with LeBron. They have lost three of four coming into this game and they are just 5-7 ATS, which tells us the bookies have them overvalued. Irving is banged up right now but will probably go and LeVert is a key player for Brooklyn who has missed some time. Indiana has been pretty good even while they wait for Oladipo to rejoin the lineup. They have lost two straight coming into this game, but that was at Houston and vs. Milwaukee, and we think they have a much better chance to succeed here against lesser competition. The Pacers are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings and 5-0 ATS the last five meetings in Brooklyn. They tend to play well here, and we see that being the situation again tonight.

7 Unit Play. Take #834 Wisconsin over Marquette (1p.m., Sunday, November 17 FS1) Wisconsin needs this game more. Marquette already recorded a quality win this week beating Purdue but this is the game not having the Hauser twins will show up. Marquette has dominated this series in recent years but Wisconsin has the veterans to pull away and win this game at the Kohl Center. Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on Sunday. Marquette is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

This isn’t the biggest matchup for the Clippers this season, but this is probably the biggest game so far, because Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are expected to play together for the first time. Kawhi is fully integrated as the leader of the team now. And George seemed to fit in perfectly in scoring 30+ in his debut, even though it was a losing effort. Even if these guys don’t instantly click, which there is no reason to indicate that they won’t, after all Kawhi chose George as his preferred running mate, the rest of the team should rise up and play their best here. This team truly seems to be buying into the team mentality, and even though the Clips have gotten off to a slow start, at full strength we don’t think there’s a better team in the NBA. They are coming off two tough losses, at Houston in a game they didn’t play well in, and at New Orleans on the second of a back-to-back. They won’t take Atlanta lightly. The Hawks are on the fourth game of a rough road trip and were routed by a lesser Suns team last time out. The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and we expect to see the best version of this LA team on Saturday night.

4 Unit Play. Take #782 Arkansas over Montana (5p.m., Saturday, November 16 SECN+) We have used Arkansas in both games this far this season and will ride them again on Saturday looking to complete the trifecta. The Grizzles do not have a quality win and lost to Stanford by double digits. Montana is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games. Arkansas is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

4 Unit Play. Take #730 California over California Baptist (10p.m., Friday, November 15) This is a buy game for the Golden Bears and expect them to take care of business tonight at Haas Pavilion. The Bears have won both of their games thus far and they have covered the spread in 7 straight games. The Lancers have some talent but playing in their second straight road game against a Power 5 team will doom them in in this game.

4 Unit Play. Take #724 Boise State over Cal Irvine (9p.m., Friday, November 15) The Broncos should be able to get back on track tonight at home against the Anteaters. Boise State got pounded by Oregon but the Ducks are one of the top teams in the west this season. Irvine has a road loss to Pepperdine and expect a similar result tonight at ExtraMile Arena. Boise State is 14-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games against Big West teams.

4 Unit Play. Take #728 Utah over Minnesota (9p.m., Friday, November 15 PAC12N) Minnesota has played a difficult schedule and playing their second straight road games will doom them in. The Gophers have lost three straight games and playing in the Huntsman Center is always a tough task. Utah has a nice road win over Nevada, and they can a chance to make the NCAA Tournament if they win their home games. Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 nonconference games. Utah is 49-21 ATS (3 pushes) in their last 73 home games against teams with a losing road record.

We are getting good value on the Spurs here in what is a very winnable game for them. They come into this one having lost three straight and five of six. They have had a very tricky schedule, however, and we think this team will be fine and there is no reason to panic. This team is one of the best coached in the league, and they don’t often go on extended losing streaks, and we have a feeling they will just come into Orlando and take care of business in a professional manner. They are certainly the better team in this matchup. If the Spurs had played to expectations so far they would be at least PK here. We have them as a slight favorite in this game, so getting this many points is just icing on the cake. And it’s not like Orlando has been dominating or anything, they have endured a lousy start to the season and are 4-7 so far on the year. Also, the Spurs always seem to play well here in Orlando, where they have covered in six of the last eight meetings.

5 Unit Play. Take #656 Georgetown over Penn State (6:30p.m., Thursday, November 14 FS1) Both teams have played cupcakes to open up the season. We will side with the home team as Patrick Ewing looks for even better things in year 3 of his tenure. Georgetown is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against Big 10 teams. Penn State never seems to have a good season and always does just enough to fall short of NCAA Tournament consideration and expect this year to be no different under Coach Chambers.

4 Unit Play. Take #646 Northwestern over Providence (9p.m., Wednesday, November 13 BTN) The Wildcats have an embarrassing loss to open the season against Merrimack. But that loss has over adjusted this line and we will grab the points tonight with a home underdog. Providence is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Big 10 teams. Northwestern is 10-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 15 games against Big East teams.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sport

The Clippers have played a home heavy schedule so far. They are just 1-2 on the road this season, and their lone win was against Golden State, which turned out to be not that special as the Warriors just aren’t good this season. This is their biggest road test so far. Westbrook is out for the Rockets, but this is still a very good team. It looks like Kawhi will play tonight for the Clippers, but George will probably debut for Los Angeles tomorrow, and it seems like this team has a bit of distraction for that situation heading into this game. The Rockets are a team that seems to care more about the regular season and seeding while the Clips want to be healthy for the playoffs. We think they will take this game far more seriously tonight, and we have a short line here for a Rockets team that has won four straight and is playing with a lot of confidence.

4 Unit Play. Take #602 VCU over LSU (6p.m., Wednesday, November 13 ESPN2) An unranked team that is favored against a ranked team is usually a sign to play them. The Rams will be playing their third straight home game and expect them to move to 3-0 on the season. LSU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. VCU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 SEC games.

Both teams are off to a slow start. But we think this is just a slow start for the Blazers but that the Kings are likely a lousy team. Despite generous lines they are not covering many early-season games like they did last season (although they come into this one on an ATS streak). The Blazers got a confidence-boosting win last time out against Atlanta and they have had a pretty difficult schedule lately and we expect them to use that positive momentum to score the win tonight against this short line as a slight road favorite.

We really like what we have seen from Phoenix so far this season and this looks like a legit strong team. Last year the Kings got off to a hot start and were in the playoff discussion until falling off a cliff later in the season. But this strong play looks sustainable for the Suns barring injury. But we think that they are in over their heads tonight against a Lakers squad that is one of the best three teams in the league and looks much more together at this early point in the season than we assumed heading into the new season. The Suns have had a fairly easy schedule thus far and we think the Lakers will come into this one with a sense or purpose after a rare home loss last time out against Toronto. An angry and focused LA team should be too much for this upstart Suns club tonight, and we expect them to score a comfortable victory. They have also covered in seven of the last nine in this series!

4 Unit Play. Take #819 Memphis over Oregon (9p.m., Tuesday, November 12 ESPN) Memphis is going all in this season with James Wiseman and I just believe they are more talented than Oregon is. Playing in Portland will give the Ducks a homecourt edge, but talent wins out at the end of the day. Memphis is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Oregon is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games played on Tuesday.

4 Unit Play. Take #781 Auburn over South Alabama (8p.m., Tuesday, November 12 ESPN+) Auburn made the final four last year and their style of play allows them to score enough points to cover this big number on the road. The Tigers have covered the spread in 8 straight road games. South Alabama is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 nonconference games. Expect Auburn to win this game by double digits.

4 Unit Play. Take #769 Northern Kentucky over Costal Carolina (7p.m., Tuesday, November 12 ESPN+) The Norse made the NCAA Tournament last season and they return most of the talent from that team. They got beat at Missouri, but they should be able to win at Coastal Carolina tonight. The Chanticleers got beat but Campbell last time out and now face a much stronger team in NKU. Coastal Carolina is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played on Tuesday.

Golden State was getting some very big lines there for awhile but they have covered three of four games and the bookies seemed to have backed off here a bit as we thought this one would come in at double digits. We think there’s a great chance Utah could win this one by 10+. After a two-game slide the Jazz are playing well again and they come in on a two-game win streak with impressive victories over the two best teams in the East, Philly and Milwaukee. Utah has covered in six straight meetings in this series, and we think they will take some pleasure in kicking the Warriors while they are down tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #742 Texas A&M over ULM (8p.m., Monday, November 11 SECN+) We will side with the home team in this battle of unbeaten teams tonight in College Station. The Aggies were not that impressive in their opening game and did not come close to covering the 27.5 number against Northwestern State. I expect a 20+ point victory tonight and that will be more than enough to cover this spread. ULM is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a victory in their previous game. A&M is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.

The Suns have been almost perfect for bettors this season at 7-1 ATS. They played their worst game of the season last time out in a home blowout loss to the Heat. But they have had two nights off to regroup and they should play much better here tonight. We think the Nets come into the season a bit overrated. This team will be a real contender when Durant is in the mix, but he won’t be on the court until next season most likely. But it seems like the bookies are lining their games like he is playing because this team had a lot of offseason buzz.  

Orlando ended a four-game losing streak last time out with a big win over the Grizzlies. It’s only the Grizzlies and this is not a good team, but Orlando was super dominant in that game and we think this is a team trending upwards after a slow start. They have won three straight in this series and covered in four of five meetings, and we think they match up well here as well, especially with Oladipo still sidelined for the Pacers.

The Timberwolves have played a road-heavy schedule thus far this season, and we think they are a but undervalued right now. We had this game handicapped at PK, so we think there is nice value here. The public is heavily on the road favorite here, and often that is a good spot for a sharp bet on the home underdog. We think the Wolves will bring their A Game here in this Sunday afternoon matchup and expect them to compete for the outright win.

3 Unit Play. Take #675 Fullerton over Stanford (11p.m., Saturday, November 9) Just do not like to use Stanford in early season nonconference games with a big number. Their home crowd is almost nonexistent and the energy will have to be provided by the players themselves. Stanford is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Expect this to be an 8-10 point victory at Maples for Stanford.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Spurs have covered in five of the last six meetings, and we think this line is short again today. We like both of these teams, but on their home court we think the Spurs are the better squad. The Spurs are healthy and they are 4-1 at home this season, and this team just is under the radar right now we think because we had this line handicapped at 4.5 and think there is nice value here at this small number. Boston is 3-1 on the road but the only legit team they played was Philly, and that was their lone loss. They beat New York, Cleveland and Charlotte, three of the NBA’s worst teams. We see the Spurs likely winning this one by 5+.

4 Unit Play. Take #622 Air Force over Texas State (4p.m., Saturday, November 9) The Falcons laid an egg in their opening game and thus we have value today using them against Texas State. Air Force returns a ton of talent from last year and they are much better than what they showed earlier in the week. Air Force is 23-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 32 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Texas State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played on Saturday.

4 Unit Play. Take #771 Northern Kentucky over Missouri (8p.m., Friday, November 9 SECN+) We will grab the points as the Darrin Horn era gets back underway tonight in Columbia. The Norse made the NCAA Tournament last year and return 4 starters off that squad. Never been a big Conzo Martin fan and do not feel he is a great x and o coach and thus I see this game going down to the wire and well under the posted total. Missouri is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record.

Orlando is off to a slow start this season but they have had just a brutal schedule. They have lost four straight, and that stretch of games was particularly tough. They lost to Milwaukee and Denver at home and then fell to OKC and Dallas on the road. But make no mistake, this is a solid club. They are just off to a bad start against a tough schedule. They have mostly taken care of business against lousy teams, and that is the case tonight as Memphis isn’t a good team. We had this game handicapped at 9 with a lean to the Magic even at that number so we are thrilled that the bookies are underestimating the home team tonight. The Grizzlies have been getting much better lines from the oddsmakers but still are playing under expectations. We think this is a get right game for Orlando and expect a double-digit win tonight.

 These teams are a combined 12-1-1 ATS this season. But the Suns are a perfect 7-0 ATS and this team is very much improved from last season, and some people are even talking playoffs when discussing this team in the tough Western Conference. The general betting public hasn’t caught on to this Phoenix team yet since there are much bigger stories in the NBA going on right now. The oddsmakers have made a small adjustment on this team but all they have to do here is win and they will probably cover the spread, and we expect that to happen tonight.

The Spurs have covered in six of the last eight meetings in this series. While the Spurs may not be as good as they were during their peak years, this is a very stable franchise and they have one of the best home-court advantages in the entire NBA. OKC is going through a lot of changes in this transition season. The Spurs are coming off two losses so we are getting some nice value here as last season this line would have been about 3, but the Thunder aren’t close to the same team as last season with Westbrook out to Houston. The Spurs are 3-1 this season at home while OKC is winless on the road, and we think the Spurs have a great chance for a 7+-point win tonight.

Boston is rolling and they are doing in very quietly while some of the other teams in the NBA are grabbing the headlines. That makes for a strong bet, and they have failed to cover in only one of their last five games (one push). The Hornets have been playing well but doing it against a very easy schedule. We think the Celtics have a great chance for a double-digit win tonight. Aside from last season, the Celtics have been one of the best bets the last few seasons in the entire NBA, and with the hype gone from last season we think they will be profitable again this season.

Kawhi is out tonight and we think these are the best two teams in basketball. But with their star out of the lineup, the Bucks are the much better squad. This is a chance to make a statement for them. It’s likely that Leonard is sitting out here and will play tomorrow in the more important conference matchup against Portland on TNT. While this Clippers team plays hard every night, we think they will really bring their best effort on Thursday while this move by Doc Rivers shows that this game is just not as important to the team, and that can have a mental effect on the squad as a whole.

Philly was kind of exposed during their trip to Phoenix as they lost their first game of the season. The Suns are much improved for sure. But they aren’t anywhere near as good as this Utah team. The best teams in the West are much better than the top teams out East, Milwaukee withstanding as the Bucks are a true title contender. We had this line handicapped at 4.5 and think there is nice value tonight on this short line.

Even though the Warriors beat the Blazers getting big points last time out, we still think this is a team to fade. The Blazers played very poorly and they underestimated the Warriors in that game. We still think the Warriors are a team to fade with the current lineup they have on the court right now. Because they have the name Warriors on the jersey they have more respect from oddsmakers and bettors than they should. Teams aren’t going to care about kicking them when they are down, and a team like the Rockets that can score lots of points should have a field day against this defense.

3 Unit Play. Take #671 Saint Mary’s over Wisconsin (9p.m., Tuesday, November 5 ESPNU) The Badgers will likely struggle this season to make the NCAA Tournament and I do not see things going well in this opening game against the Gaels. Saint Mary’s is nationally ranked to open the season and return 4 starters from their NCAA Tournament team Wisconsin struggled to shoot the basketball last year and now will be without Ethan Happ for the first time in 4 years. Saint Mary’s pull away late to win this game by 8-10 points.

3 Unit Play. Take #632 South Dakota State over Rio Grandy Valley (8p.m., Tuesday, November 5 ESPN+) The Jackrabbits are always a top team in the Summit League and should be able to take care of business tonight against the Vaqueros. SDSU is 25-12 ATS (1 push) in their last 38 home games. The Vaqueros are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 nonconference games. 82% of the money is coming in on the home team and we will side with them as well.

3 Unit Play. Take #634 Arkansas over Rice (8p.m., Tuesday, November 5 SECN+) The Eric Musselman Era gets underway tonight in Fayetteville. Musselman plays a short bench and keeps his best players in the whole 40 minutes and should be able to beat the Owls by 20+ points. Rice is predicted to finish last in Conference USA and will not be competitive in this game tonight at Bud Walton Arena. Rice is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 nonconference games. Arkansas has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games.

3 Unit Play. Take #642 Northern Iowa over Old Dominion (8p.m., Tuesday, November 5 ESPN+) The Panthers look to get back to the MVC and need to protect their homecourt. The Monarchs will be in rebuilding mode after back-to-back 25+ wins seasons. AJ Green should lead this cast of 4 returning starters for the Panthers and after finishing below .500 last year it is important for UNI to get off to a good start this season. ODU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. UNI is 9-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games played on Tuesday.

3 Unit Play. Take #610 Clemson over Virginia Tech (7p.m., Tuesday, November 5 ESPN U) Buzz Williams got out of town and I do not believe Virginia Tech will be very competitive this season during ACC play. Both teams lost a bunch of talent from last season but Clemson had extra practices this summer in the University Games to strengthen their newcomers for the start of the season. The home team is 4-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 meetings between Virginia Tech and Clemson. Clemson needs to get off to a good start with a coach on the hot seat and pick up a win tonight at Littlejohn.

This is a really interesting situation with the Golden State Warriors this season, at least until Stephen Curry comes back. With him out and Draymond Green out and likely Russell as well, this is barely a G-League squad that the Warriors are fielding tonight. I have seen some NBA writers exclaim that this is the worst team fielded in the NBA for years. There are some really bad teams in the NBA every year. And they normally get generous points from the oddsmakers, and that is definitely the case here tonight. But the strange thing about this situation is that the Warriors are the biggest dynasty in the NBA for the last five years and teams are not going to overlook them. I think teams will take pleasure in “kicking them when they are down” and especially in the West this season where every win is a potential playoff tiebreaker we think that Golden State could have a really tough time covering numbers and we might start to see 10+ points with them every night until they get healthy.

Dallas has had a tough schedule to open the season. They are coming off a tough OT loss to the Lakers. They should be highly motivated to get back on track here tonight against one of the worst teams in the NBA and the easiest matchup on their schedule so far. Every game counts in the West, especially for a team like Dallas that could be on the fringes of playoff eligibility in April. They are 2-0 on the road this season, so early indications are that this team is ready to compete in road games. We see them notching a comfortable win tonight.

We went against the Magic last night and they were blown out of the water at home by Milwaukee. Now they face a good team off an embarrassing loss. Denver was blown out in New Orleans last time out, giving the Pelicans their first win of the season. Mike Malone called his team out publicly for lack of effort. When your boss calls you out for lack of effort, you are going to give a better effort next time out… right? Me neither! But we think the Nuggets players will respond tonight. Good teams off a bad loss are normally a good bet in the NBA as they give better effort next time, and with their coach calling them out we think the Nuggets will bring their A Game. They were off Friday while the Magic were getting rolled by the Bucks, and you would think Orlando would want to play their best game against a conference foe. But this team has gotten off to a real slow start and they have covered only one line this season, but two points against the lowly Knicks. We think Denver will flex their muscles a bit in this one and they should cruise to a comfortable win.

Orlando has gotten off to a real slow start for a team that is on the rise and they have covered in just one of their four games so far. Their defense has been good but this team just can’t generate any offense right now. Milwaukee is averaging 119 points on offense thus far. We don’t think the Magic defense will be able to slow them down, and we for sure don’t see their offense being able to keep up. Milwaukee should have extra motivation after losing by double digits last time out at Boston. A motivated Bucks team is by far the best team in the East, and we see them taking their frustrations out on a Magic team that still seems to be figuring some things out in the early going of the season.

The Clips should have Kawhi back tonight to play against his old team, in case he needed any extra motivation after LA lost in Utah last night. The Spurs are 3-0 SU but 0-3 ATS, as the bookmakers have them overvalued at this point of the season. In the tough Western Conference, every game is important, and the Clippers will not want to lose two in a row to the teams they may be battling for seeding in the postseason. The Spurs are down this season from what we are used to, despite their current record, and the better team will get a comfortable win tonight.

The Clippers had a slip up against the Suns, but besides that they have taken care of business with an exclamation point against any test thrown their way. Even with Paul George yet to join the squad, this looks like the best team in the NBA to us, and they seem to be very motivated for a hot start. This team is playing selfless basketball. We had this line handicapped at PK so we think there is nice value here with them getting a decent amount of points tonight.

The Raptors have played really well to open the season, but this team is just not as good as their team last year. Not even close. And The oddsmakers are lining them tonight like they still have Kawhi. Detroit has been inconsistent but they should get up for this game against the defending champs, and this line seems about three points too high to us. Detroit has covered in four of the last five meetings, and we think they come to play tonight.

Orlando has covered in four of the last five meetings and we like them to do the same tonight. Orlando has gotten off to a slow start to the season, and they haven’t yet covered a line. But in NBA betting you have to take each game as a new opportunity, and this should be a good game for a solid Orlando team to get things back on track against a very poor Knicks club. We see a double-digit win here for the home squad.

We think that this is a few too many points for the Hawks tonight, a team that has gotten off to a strong start on the season. They have covered in all three of their games this season, and their only loss was last night at home vs. Philly, a Top 2 team in the East, by only a bucket. We think the Hawks are being punished a little too much by the oddsmakers because of a back-to-back as it’s early in the season and these players are somewhat fresh still. And Atlanta always seems to being their A Game against the Heat as they have covered in four straight and six of seven meetings.

We will back the Warriors again after their bad performance yesterday vs. OKC. But this team does not want to start 0-2 so they will put forth their best effort tonight. It’s early in the season and this is the youngest team in the NBA so the back-to-back should not be a problem. Golden State is better than they have looked so far, and the oddsmakers made too big of an adjustment here to this line.

This is only the Magic’s third game of the season, while Toronto has played three and one went to OT, so we think the road team will be primed for a strong performance. Orlando is an under-the-radar team that public bettors tend to stay away from, so there should be value with this team early. This is an improving club. Orlando has played excellent defense to start the season, and we think that will continue tonight. We expect a close game tonight.

We think the Bulls are underrated by the oddsmakers early this season, so we will go with them again here on Monday. They are coming off a bad loss to Toronto but should play a lot better here tonight. The Knicks are winless to start the season, and once again this team looks like one of the worst in the NBA. With this short line the Bulls basically just need to win, and they have the better talent on the court tonight and should have nice motivation.

We don’t think the Warriors are as bad as they looked in their opener at home against the Clippers. Los Angeles was dialed in for that game and made the Warriors look bad. But they are the stronger team here, and they will anxious to get the season back on track. Kerr will devise a gameplan to give Golden State the best chance for success here, and Curry give his teammates on the court the best chance to succeed. And the Warriors have covered five of the last six in OKC.

The Clippers have covered in seven of the last eight meetings in this series. And they have their best team ever right now. To us this is the clear cut best team in the NBA and Paul George hasn’t even started playing yet. We can tell that this team wants to get off to a strong start to the season. We don’t see them having a letdown tonight. They have a very tough schedule coming up and they need to win games like this. This Clippers team seems very bought in to the team goals and is playing very unselfish team basketball. The Suns have some issues right now with No. 1 draft pick Ayton getting suspended for 25 games for violating the NBA drug policy. He might win his appeal, but he won’t be available here tonight. Like any team, the Clippers will face some adversity during points in the season. But for right now this team looks extremely motivated. And it seems they are having fun. Don’t think there’s a lot of joy in Phoenix right now. This looks like a double-digit win to us.

The Kings looked really bad in their season opener against Phoenix. They were outscored 70-36 in the second half. To freaking Phoenix. They lost by almost 30. Now they face a team that went to the WCF last season. This team lost their opener to a very good Denver team and they will not take the Kings for granted as they don’t want anything to do with a 0-2 start. During the middle of the NBA season some good teams can overlook at game like this, but coming off a loss and with the season still young, we think they put forth their best effort tonight.

The Bulls have covered the last four matchups between these teams, and they have their best squad now compared to the one the last couple years. We see this team as a playoff contender and for sure a team on the rise. Memphis is facing a major rebuild and this team won’t get many wins this season. Both teams bombed out in their first game, but we think the Bulls had an off game while we think the Memphis result showed more of what they are. We had this line handicapped at -5, so we think there is some very nice value here. We think there’s a great chance for a comfortable win, and a double-digit win wouldn’t surprise us.

The Raptors haven’t covered a line in their last four trips to Boston. The Celtics kind of have a bad image after they faced so much discontent last season and flamed out in the postseason. But we think this team will be just fine and they have a solid roster. They have been one of the best bets in the NBA the last few seasons, and we think they will continue that this year. They were beat by a better team in the opener, but we think tonight they are the superior team and this line looks short to us.

It was just one game, but on Tuesday at Staples Center, the Clippers sure looked like the clear-cut top team in the league. Now they face one of their biggest rivals in Golden State on TNT tonight. The Warriors are way down from what we are used to with Durant gone and Klay out for the season. This team also has questionable depth. Curry and Draymond will surely lead them to a lot of wins, but we think they are outmatched here in this game against what should be a very motivated Clippers club that won’t hesitate to kick Golden State when they are down.

The Kings were a hot betting team to start the season last year and this team was in the playoff discussion before trailing off late while other teams got hot. But we think this team is solid and they will be competitive once again. They are pretty far ahead of where the Suns are at right now. And this line is more than fair for the opener for both teams as we only have to lay a small number with the Kings on the road and get the much better team in the process.

We think the Nets are a little overrated to start the season. The Wolves are pretty healthy here and we think they will give their best effort in their season opener. The Nets have a lot of buzz, but Durant won’t be here until next season and they enter the season a little banged up. The Wolves have been betting gold when playing Brooklyn as they are 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings, and we think this very strong trend will continue on Wednesday.

Kemba Walker was the only guy really keeping this Charlotte team competitive in the past, but now he is gone. The Hornets will probably be one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. The Bulls strategy over the last few years of tanking is finally starting to pay off, and we expect a big jump forward and for this team to compete for the playoffs this season in the weak East. There seems to be some nice value in the line here for the opener for both teams.

The Warriors can win this game and be right back in the driver’s seat for the series. They have been here before and had some scares in the postseason before, but they have so much experience and they won’t be scared and will just take care of business. They get some help tonight as Klay Thompson should be back in the lineup, and they know there’s a chance that Durant could be back for Game 5. They know there’s no reason to panic. We think scoring will be a lot better for the home team from Game 3 with Klay back here, and Toronto has shown they are hot on offense as well. But we think the Warriors will play with a purpose here with their backs against the wall, and we think they take care of business tonight.

The Warriors have gone through some big lulls this season as a team. We wondered at points in the season if this team was as good as previous seasons. But when we get down to the nitty gritty we just think they were bored at times. This team has accomplished so much and the desire didn’t seem to be there. But when they were challenged, either after a bad game or by facing some kind of adversity, this team normally responded very well. And we think with these injuries tonight the team is facing that the players on the court are going to play with a chip on their shoulder. When this team and Curry are motivated, good things normally happen for them. They have Toronto right where they want them having stolen a game in Canada. We think the Warriors will rely more on defense tonight since they are likely to be missing a lot of scoring. The numbers don’t show it because of the pace, but this is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. And we think Curry will lift his game up enough to cover this number.

The Warriors are much better than they played in Game 1. They had a lot of time off before this series, and sometimes it is tough for a team to get into gear after that much time away from the court. But at times recently the Warriors need a kick in the butt to get things going, and that Game 1 result probably was the thing to do the trick. This team is in pretty bad shape if they go down 2-0, and we expect them to play with some purpose tonight and get this series back on track. And remember, the Raptors have played much more basketball in this playoffs with some long series, and Golden State should have some good energy here despite some injuries.

When we set this total for the Game 1 matchup we came up with a number around 207. We think there is some great value in the under. The Raptors slowed the game down a lot in the Eastern Conference Finals, and we think they will employ the same strategy here. Both teams are fresh with a lot of time off, and that means they will have a lot of energy for defense. And with the extra time off, the offenses might be rusty. We expect some cold shooting, especially in the first quarter before teams get warmed up. And we just have to love the Warriors getting points here. They have all the experience. They know this might be their last chance at a championship as there are a lot of questions in the offseason with this roster. They are just flat out a much better team – throw the regular season results out as the Warriors barely cared this season during some stretches but they are in full playoff form now and playing some of their best basketball of the season despite injuries.

This is a season-defining game for both teams, and we expect both clubs to be at their top level defensively. Offense hasn’t consistently worked out for either of these teams consistently in this series, so we think they will rely on defense to get the job done. While the Bucks are on the ropes here and facing elimination, they are just a small underdog and if they win they will be a pretty big favorite for Game 7. Despite some real lackluster play in the last two games, we still think they are the better team and they will put their best foot forward here. We just can’t see them playing three straight duds. We still think they have a great chance to win this series.

Everyone remembers the last game in an NBA playoff series, and the Bucks were routed in Game 4 in Toronto. We will give this team a mulligan, however, as we think they just had a bad game. It happens to the best of teams. But if Game 3 had gone a little different, this could easily be an elimination game for the Bucks. We think this is a great spot for them to rebound, and we don’t at all think that the Raptors have the momentum in this series. The Bucks will play their best at home and have a chance to close it out in Game 6 in Toronto. We took the over last time out as these teams had just come off Double OT and were tired. They should be more well rested here, and we expect a lower-scoring game. We think the defenses will really step up as this is a crucial game in what is now a 3-game series. And we think there’s a decent chance this could be a blowout and that the Raptors will be held to a real low score.

The advantage goes to the better team when two teams are tired, and after the long Game 3 with two overtimes we think that gives the Bucks the advantage here in Game 4. Toronto needed an almost superhuman effort to win Game 3, and we think the Bucks had an off game. But this team is focused and determined and we don’t see them losing this game. We saw what happened after the Denver/Portland four OT game when defense went out the window in the following game with tired legs. We expect to see a similar result here and we think the scoring will be way up from what we saw in regulation in Game 3. We expect more shots to drop, and we think Milwaukee will do everything they can to ensure that they have a chance to close this out in Game 5 back at home, especially now that their probable NBA Finals opponent is already waiting and resting after Golden State swept the Blazers (and they have major injuries they are hoping for extra time to heal).

Golden State is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. Maybe some of these players hate Kevin Durant and want to win in spite of him, but they have rallied around each other and things have been working out great. Portland, at the end of Game 3, reminded me of the old Clippers team when they would be close in the playoffs at the end of a game. They just completely fell apart and had no control of the ball. They were just hoisting prayer shots up. They were basically panicking with their season on the line and the Warriors were cool, calm and collected. Portland needed that Game 3 to have any chance in this series. They are sunk now. And with a good chance to win heading into the fourth and with the way they played (and something isn’t right with Lillard right now), we don’t see how they can pick themselves up and be competitive here in this elimination game.

The Bucks have now covered in six of the last seven meetings after covers in Games 1 and 2. We think that both conference finals series are kind of mismatches, but especially this one. The Bucks just seem like a team built for the postseason while the Raptors seem more like a regular season club. Just look at what happened with Toronto last season, getting swept by the Cavs when it looked like they had their best team ever and Cleveland struggled all through the regular season. But the Bucks haven’t really faced much adversity in these playoffs and they have made things look easy. We think there’s a good chance that this series could end in a sweep as well, and we think there is nice value here getting the plus points in a game that the Bucks could easily win outright. After their slow start in Game 1 they have looked like the clear superior team here, and we don’t think the change in venue will make a difference for Toronto.

Game 3 is the most pivotal in a seven-game series. That is especially the case for the Blazers here as they are down 2-0. A loss here would be devastating to their chances in this series. We don’t think they have much of a chance to win this series, but the Warriors are without Durant and they are not as strong as they have been in past years. They have lost the competitive fire a little bit also, which is natural. Portland played well enough to win in Game 2, but the Warriors staged an epic comeback. But the home court will be kinder to the Blazers, and we expect them to win here tonight. These conference finals have been without much drama so far and we expect the refs to give the home team the close calls tonight. Sweeps in both series would be horrible for the bottom line.

The Bucks were obviously rusty at the start of Game 1 and they went down big to the Raptors early before getting it all together and rallying for the cover. Toronto had come in in better playing form having finished their last series in seven games, but now the Bucks have shaken off the rust and we expect a more complete game from them. We expect the Bucks to have a lot better offensive night, and the total has been adjusted down from Game 1. We think there is value on the over, and we think there’s a great chance that the Bucks could win this one by 10+ if they play as well as they did in the second half in Game 1 all the way through here in Game 2.

We couldn’t be happier with this line. The number we had in our mind was around 9, but we knew the bookies would not open with that big of a number. We think the Raptors are getting a little extra shading with the line here because everyone and their mother saw Leonard’s amazing buzzer-beater on SportsCenter. But we think this Game 1 will be pretty one-sided. The Bucks have looked much more impressive than the Raptors in this postseason. They have been chilling for awhile while the Raps finished a grueling seven-game series on Sunday. The Bucks seem incredibly focused in this postseason so we don’t see them being rusty with the time off. But Toronto could sure use some more rest coming into this one. The Bucks won and covered in three of four meetings this season, and two of those games were blowouts. We think they have a very good chance to win this by double-digits. The Bucks were one of the best ATS teams in the NBA at home this season, and we think they are underrated once again tonight. We expect them to take a statement here tonight with a tour de force in Game 1. We also think this total is too high and we think this will be a low-scoring game like Games 1 were for these teams in the last round.

We have always liked the Blazers to advance in this series and we think the line has value here for Game 7 in what we expect to be a close game. Despite the results of this series, the Blazers are the more experienced team, and that will count a lot in a Game 7. We had this line handicapped at 3.5 and we think the Blazers could do even better than that and win this one outright.

Kevin Durant has been playing out of his mind in the postseason and the rest of the Warriors supporting cast has been a disappointment most of the time. But this is the defending NBA champ and the current NBA dynasty, and they still have Curry, Thompson and Green, and a solid team all around. They also have a great coach. We think they will do what they can to make this a competitive game. Curry isn’t going to stay cold forever, and with more responsibility tonight we think he has a great game and takes control. We expect a close game here tonight.

A team is normally never as bad or good as their last game, and we are willing to give the Blazers a mulligan for that one as the game just got out of control and they could never recover. But otherwise this has been a competitive series and we don’t see the Blazers going away that easy. This team has a lot of determination and grit, and they have a great home crowd behind them tonight against a Denver team that is a nice squad for sure but they aren’t a championship-caliber team at this point. We think there’s a great chance for a comfortable win for the home team here.

Toronto has taken back control of this series by winning the last two games and putting the Sixers on the verge of elimination. Now they should have a sense of urgency cine the Bucks closed out the Celtics in the East. They don’t want this series to go to seven games. The Sixers lack of depth is starting to glaringly show as the starters are becoming less effective as the series wears on and Embiid has been a dud all series long. We think Toronto closes this one out tonight.

We think there is a very good chance that Golden State loses this series and that their reign is coming to an end. They face a ton of questions in the offseason and this squad just doesn’t seem to have the same fire that they have had in past seasons. They also don’t look as confident. All the pressure seems to be on Golden State as the Rockets are expected to lose and they can play more free and just play their game. They have taken momentum in this series and we think they will compete hard here with a chance for the outright win.

Boston hasn’t played well in this series and this season has been a disappointment and there will probably be a shakeup once this team gets bounced in this series. But this team does have heart, and we don’t think they will roll over like some other teams would facing insurmountable odds. We can see the Celtics leaving it all on the court tonight in this elimination game. We have to think Coach Brad Stevens will have his team compete for four quarters and we just think this is too many points as this is the biggest value for Boston during this entire series.

The Sixers have been very competitive in this series but Toronto gutted out a Game 4 win in Philly and now the series has turned into a best-of-3, with Toronto having two games at home. They were always our pick to win this series and they just have a deeper team and more experience in the postseason. The Sixers have not played well here in Toronto has they are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits, and we have a feeling the Raps will break this series open tonight with a comfortable win and put the Sixers on the brink of elimination.

This is really crunch time for the Celtics and they need a win here or there is a good chance this series will slip away. Boston is one of the better defensive teams in the league but they didn’t play well in that regard in the last two games. But they are much better than they have showed, and we expect them to batten down the hatches tonight and play a great defensive game. In Game 1 they held the Bucks to 90 points, and although they may not hold them to that low of a score we think they will make adjustments here as they have one of the best coaches in the league. We expect a very strong showing from the home team tonight.

Wow that was an amazing game in Game 3 even though we came up a bucket short on our pick. But after 4 overtimes and these teams giving everything they had, we think this game will be a grind, and we think the pace will be slowed down here. These players played their hearts out and played so many minutes and ran so far. There just isn’t going to be a lot left in the tank. And we think that will contribute to a low-scoring game. And we think this rare situation plays to the home team as they will be more comfortable at home and they can feed extra energy off the home fans.