Sports Picks & Predictions

Charlotte has covered in only one of the last seven meetings between these squads (one push), and we think this is a very close game and we have to take the points in this one. These teams already met once in Miami, and it was a one-point Charlotte win. But that just showed how competitive this game should be, and it also sets up as a revenge spot for the road club. If the Heat hadn’t got off to such a slow start in that game they probably would have won, and we think they have a great chance for the straight up win here.

The Kings have won and covered three straight games, but as a result we are getting some nice betting value here tonight with the home team. Sacramento enters on a back-to-back and the Magic have had two nights off. And they played pretty lousy the last couple games against much better competition so we think they will have a lot of energy tonight and give it their all in this matchup. The Magic have had problems scoring lately, but this Kings defense is giving up a ton of points and we think this rested Magic squad will take advantage in a big way.

When these teams from Texas tangle, you have to take note when one is getting this many points. We think the Mavs are getting too many tonight. Dallas has covered in four straight meetings and in seven of the last eight. Yes, they are on a back-to-back tonight, but the oddsmakers are punishing them too much with this big line. We expect a very close game here tonight and the underdog is the right call in this matchup.

We thought this Lakers team might  be a team to fade heading into the season but they have gelled together much quicker than we anticipated. We really like the way this team is playing right now and they should win this game on the road tonight. The Wolves have been very disappointing to start the season and we think the Lakers are the hungrier team in this matchup and we think they take care of business tonight.

Love this matchup and the short line on the Pacers. The Blazers travel to Houston tomorrow, and we think they will overlook this out-of-conference opponent. Indiana is legit and 4-2 on the young season. But they don’t get respect from the oddsmakers because there aren’t many big names on the roster. But they plan great team basketball and we think they will take care of business tonight and score a win by 7 or more points.

Dallas has played great at home, where they are 2-0 both SU and ATS. This team is underrated coming into the season, and they catch Utah on a back-to-back (Dallas was off Saturday) after a much bigger game against New Orleans yesterday. Dallas has played very well in this series as they have covered in five of the last six matchups. With the Jazz coming in on a back-to-back, we think that evens the playing field here and we think this will be a very close game with the home team in a good spot to pull off the outright upset.

We have stated before that we like the Magic as a double-digit underdog, and they are 2-0 ATS in this role so far this season. We think they have a great shot to be competitive tonight against this big number. The Bucks are on a back-to-back here after a tough game at Minnesota last night and they are coming off a recent game against Philly, too, so this will be their third game in four nights. They also host Toronto on Sunday, so this makes this a major letdown spot. The Magic were off on Friday and they are well rested overall and we think the Bucks might be on upset alert tonight.

Brooklyn is a team that we think is going to have a lot of betting success this season getting big points like we see tonight. This is a scrappy young team and they have a lot of talent. The future is bright in Brooklyn. This is a tricky game for the Pelicans. It is sandwiched in between conference matchups against the Clippers and Jazz, two teams that the Pels are going to be battling for a playoff spot this season. They probably won’t give the effort in this matchup that they did and will in the conference games. New Orleans has had one of the most impressive starts in the NBA thus far, but we think this line is inflated as a result.

The Wolves have played better than expected to start the season, and even with all the Jimmy Butler drama they have been very competitive. They have covered two straight games and we expect them to complete the trifecta tonight. Last time out they were very competitive in Toronto. They will come into this game with a lot of confidence against another Eastern Conference opponent. The Bucks are coming off their big win at home against Philly. They have looked great against a home-heavy schedule but played their worst game on the road in the season opener against Charlotte.

This Lakers team has a lot to work on. They are a team to mostly fade early in the season until they start to gel. LeBron James teams have been golden to bet against the last couple of years. We think this Lakers team will be similar, at least early. This team is in a tough spot. Denver was off last night, while the Lakers got their first win of the season. They will be not only on a back-to-back but playing their third game in four nights. And they went to OT against the Spurs, so that can add to the fatigue factor here. Denver is a very good team this year and they are 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings in this series.

Boston has gotten off to a real slow start to the season and they are just 1-3 ATS so far on the year. This team is clearly overrated by the oddsmakers. The Thunder have yet to notch a win on the year, so they have started slow too. They are just getting Westbrook back in the mix, though, and there’s no doubt they will be hyped up for not only this opponent but to get their first win in 2018. Boston will be fine and they are one of the best teams in the East, if not THE best. But we have to take advantage of their slow start and go against them tonight.

Just like last season, the Magic have had a real strong start to the season. They could easily be 3-1 right now as they lost in Philly by a single point. But they beat Boston on the road and they won here at home vs. Miami. We think they will continue their strong play tonight. The Blazers have played well, but this is their first foray on the road this season. We think they might come into this game a bit overconfident. We think this will be a close game that either team can win, so we will take the points with the home dog here.

It’s tough to back the Cavaliers after their blowout loss to the Hawks in their home opener. That should have been their first win of the season, but instead they were embarrassed by what is the consensus pick for worst team in the NBA this season. We do like to back teams after a shameful loss like that, especially this Cavs team that has a lot of playoff experience (and pride) on the roster. Bettor confidence is at an all-time low for this team right now after LeBron left town and now 0-3 to start the year. That has created some value here, however, as we had this line at 5.5 since the Nets aren’t anything special. We think there’s a good chance that the Cavs cruise in this one.

The Clippers have had a strong start to the season, as we predicted because we have used them a bunch already. But they have enjoyed the cushy confines of Staples Center for a three-game homestand to start the season. The season gets real here, however, with this tough game followed by a trip to Houston. LA normally doesn’t play well here. They are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 visits here. And they have covered only one of the last five no matter the venue. We think this line is giving a bit too much credit for the Clippers hot start, and we have to remember there was no Westbrook in the OKC win and no CP3 in the Rockets win. But Anthony Davis brings the star power tonight, and he and his teammates should win this one comfortably.

The Lakers are winless on the season, and drama sure does seem to follow LeBron James around, doesn’t it? But we think they are in good shape to get their first win tonight. The Lakers normally play well in this series and they have actually won and covered in four straight meetings. This is the best version of the Lakers during that stretch and maybe the worst version of the Spurs, and we think the line is right here tonight.

The Wizards don’t want to start the season in an 0-3 hole so we think they put their best foot forward tonight in a very winnable game for them. Even though they are 0-2, they have played well in two tough games to open the season and they could have easily won either or both of those games. The Blazers finish their three-game homestand to start the season and they are 2-0 entering this contest. We think these teams are fairly even but the road team should be the more motivated of the two and we think they keep this one close if not win outright.

We always look for spots to take the Magic as a double-digit underdog. They have performed well in this role the last couple of years. This is a young and inconsistent team, but they normally put their best foot forward on the road against top competition. We saw this last time out when they were a huge dog at Philly and they lost by one point. And of course, in their previous game they got blown out at home in a very winnable game vs. Charlotte. We expect them to give max effort tonight like they did in Philly.

We think the Clippers are very underrated this year. They don’t have any big-name players any more and the public thinks they suck. But as this team is constructed, if they stay healthy they are likely a playoff team in the ultra-competitive west. They would probably be a high seed in the east. They have some injury-prone players for sure, but this team is completely healthy right now and their injury sheet as of this writing is completely clear for Sunday night. They catch Houston in a letdown spot after their big game against LeBron and the Lakers last night. The Clippers played very hard in every game against the Rockets last season. They won two of those matchups, they covered in three, and they did not lose any of the games by more than tonight’s spread. We think there is amazing value in the underdog here tonight.

On Sunday this is a battle of teams looking for their first win of the season. But the Cavs haven’t won because they have faced a tough schedule on the road – this is their home opener – and the Hawks have lost because they flat-out stink and are the worst team in the NBA this season. Cleveland has been the worst betting team in the NBA the last couple years with LeBron James leading the way. They were always overvalued by the oddsmakers and they never performed well at the betting window against high expectations. But now the script has flipped. This team still has some players. And many of those players have playoff experience and the guys that have been on this team for awhile learned from LeBron and now they have a chip on their shoulder since everyone thinks they stink. The Hawks have been blown out by a couple of crappy teams in their opening games and this squad is the obvious tanking team this year. If everything comes together the Cavs could be in the playoff discussion in the weak East if everything went well. We think they will give maximum effort here in their first winnable game of the season, and the home opener, and we think this should be another blowout.

The Rockets had a head-scratching loss at home to the Pelicans to open the season. They no doubt don’t want to open the season 0-2. This team is not going to lose many games in the regular season, barring major injuries, and we think they will get back on track in a major way against the overrated Lakers. In their season opener at Portland the Lakers showed flashes, but they also showed that they aren’t ready for primetime. We think that it will take quite awhile for this team to gel and start playing like a team. LeBron James teams are always overrated by the oddsmakers, and Cleveland with him has been one of the worst bets in the NBA the last couple seasons. This Lakers team is even more raw and they have thrown together a cast of characters that will take some time to meld into a cohesive unit. We think Houston will be extra motivated tonight and expect them to win this one comfortably

This is a clear letdown spot for the Raptors after their hard-fought win over the Celtics at home last night. They expended a ton of energy in that game in a matchup they really wanted to win, while the Wizards were off on Friday night. Not only is this a letdown spot for the Raptors, but this is a revenge spot for the Wizards after losing to Toronto last year in the postseason. We think that this is a real good spot to take the home underdog on Saturday night.

We were on the Clippers opening night and they should have won that game but they just couldn’t hit the shots in the last couple minutes. But we think this team is underrated and we think they will bounce back here tonight at home against the Thunder. OKC will most likely be without Russell Westbrook tonight. We think the Clippers will give a solid team effort here and they will play strong defense and get their first win of the season tonight at the expense of the Thunder.

Toronto normally dominates this series at home and they are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings here in Toronto. Everyone is hyped up on Boston this season, and for good reason as they really came on in the playoffs last year and now are fully healthy. But people are sleeping on Toronto a bit. They are every bit as talented as Boston and they aren’t getting enough respect with this line as we had this one handicapped at 5 and we would lean to Toronto at that number as well with the way the Raptors have played at home in this series recently.

Minnesota has so much drama surrounding the team and the Jimmy Butler situation that we think this is a team to fade until we see otherwise with their play on the court. They played well in their opener against San Antonio but failed to cover against a Spurs team that is down from what we are used to. Public bettors are down on the Cavs right now but this team will still be competitive this season, and this is too many points tonight in what we expect to be a pretty competitive game.

Cleveland with LeBron James was one of the worst bets in the NBA the last couple years. They were overbet by the betting public. They were shaded by the oddsmakers. Now LeBron is on the West Coast and we think the Lakers are a team to fade, at least early in the season. Adding him to the mix changes the dynamic of this team dramatically, and it’s going to take some time for the team to gel. Another thing working against the Lakers is that they are the biggest public team in the NBA. Bettors love to back them with their money. Now that LeBron has joined the team they are going to be even more of a public play than normal. Portland didn’t make any huge moves in the offseason. This team doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as the Lakers once this team gets a couple more players and gets on the same page. But right now they are clearly the much better team, and we expect them to win this one comfortably in the season opener.

The Clippers enter the season as a really underrated bunch. This team is a playoff team if they stay healthy. This team is fully healthy to start the season and they will want to get off to a hot start in the season opener and home opener in a very winnable game. The Clippers got rid of all three of their stars last season and in the offseason. But they have a solid team and this team will play strong defense and give maximum effort night after night. And Doc Rivers coached one of the best seasons of his career last season with a depleted roster. You could tell he liked the challenge and that he likes the makeup of this team. This Denver team probably has a better roster on paper, but this team did not play well on the road last season and we expect more of the same this time around. We think the wrong team is favored here and we think the Clips will pull away in the fourth quarter. They have covered in four of the last five meetings at Staples Center.

The Magic always seem to play tough against the Heat, and we believe that will be the case tonight as well. The Magic have won and covered in five of the last seven meetings. Miami comes into this game banged up and they have a long injury list with many players questionable. If this was later in the season we might shy away from taking the Magic here. But this is a season opener and home opener and a game against an in-state rival who they generally play well against. The Magic started off the season very strong last season and then they tailed off. But we expect maximum effort here in the season opener and the public will be all over the Heat in this one so this is a solid public fade.

We think that both teams want this bad and that this game, on opening night, will be a defensive battle and we think this total is about 3-4 points too high as we had this number closer to 207 so we think there is value here in the number. This one should have a playoff atmosphere and these are two of the best three teams in the east this season. We think this game will be a close, hard-fought contest throughout but we think that Boston will pull ahead in the fourth and make a statement in this game. We will tread lightly here for opening night but we do see some great value here and expect to start off the season on a positive note.

If the Cavs were a young team than maybe we could see a lack of effort here as they are doomed down 0-3. But this is a veteran team and they will go all out tonight to avoid the sweep. We think they have a good chance to win. Besides Game 2, which was on the road, the Cavs have overall played pretty competitively in this series. They should have covered Game 3 but Golden State just got hot at the end of the game. We think this is a game where the Cavs will leave everything on the court and we think they could win this one straight up. They don’t want to get swept here as that is a black mark on their season even though they know they can’t win the series. And Golden State might subconsciously let down here in Game 4 as they know they are headed back to the Bay Area to win in Game 5 in the event that they lose here. Also, we think the total is once again too high here.

The Cavs will be desperate here and they will give everything they have to win Game 3 here. If they don’t then this series is over. They have to treat this game like a Game 7 and they know that, so we think they give their best effort here. We think this will be a close game and either team has a chance to win. We think the Cavs will win one game in this series, and this is probably it. If they don’t win here they will probably be demoralized in Game 4. As for the total, both games have gone over. But Game 1 shouldn’t have. It was on track to go well under the total until a late burst of scoring and then overtime. And in Game 2 Cleveland could not stop the Warriors. But both teams should tighten up on defense tonight in this crucial game, and Golden State doesn’t score the ball as well on the road as they do at home. We think the Cavs will slow them down a bit and both teams will concentrate more on D than we saw in Game 2.

We were on the under in Game 1 and it should have cashed in. We had a lot of wiggle room with just a couple minutes left and there was a flurry of scoring late and some bizarre stuff happened as we all know. We consider that a bad beat but we will brush ourselves off and come back here with another strong play on the under. The under was the clear play for Game 1 and it was the right play even though it didn’t work out but the bookies didn’t really adjust from their opening number in Game 1. In both conference finals series the series got more defensive-oriented as they went on and we see this happening in the Finals as well. We also think the Warriors will learn from their close call in Game 1 and come out strong here to make a statement. We see them winning here by double digits. The Cavs played probably the best they could in Game 1 and blew it, and that has to be demoralizing against one of the best teams of all time. The Cavs are in tough here on Sunday.

The Rockets had one of the worst halves in NBA postseason history in Game 6 and they were thoroughly embarrassed. Normally we would like a good team to bounce back but Houston looked lost and the players had that “deer in the headlights” look on their faces. That is not a good sign for the city of Houston tonight. Chris Paul is iffy in this one and they say he will be a gametime decision. Even if he does go he would not be anywhere near 100% and if this were the regular season he probably would miss significant time with this injury. We think the much better Warriors step on the Rockets throats tonight and end this series with a big win.

Boston has been our play in this series all the way, and since they have not lost at home yet in these playoffs we aren’t going to back off now. This is the better ballclub this year and we don’t think LeBron and Co. can get the job done here on the road. This series has been more competitive than we thought but in the end we think the Celtics take this and end LeBron’s stronghold on the ECF.

We think the Warriors are still going to win this series. They will win tonight and will probably be favored in Game 7. They are still heavy favorites to win the series. But we think this is just an inflated line tonight. Yes, Paul is out for the Rockets but this is still a good squad. They have to know that they need to close this series out tonight and we think they will treat this one like a Game 7. Also, the scores for the last two games have been very low and if this one plays out similarly then that makes the points all the more valuable.

The home teams have won and covered every game in this series so far but we think something has to give with that trend. The Celtics have a chance to close out this series tonight, and we think they play with a lot more intensity than they have in the first two games in Cleveland. We think that at least this will be a close game. We think the Celtics defense will really step up tonight. This is a very fair line for the Celtics and with the lowest total of the series so far we think the points are all the more valuable. We see a close, low-scoring game here tonight.

We have to admit that the Rockets have played better in this series than we thought they would. The Warriors had a real off game in Game 4 and the Rockets took advantage to steal a win in the Bay Area and take back home-court advantage. We think this is still the Warriors series to lose but that Game 4 loss makes this game even more important. This is almost a must-win game for the Warriors, and this team normally responds well in these types of situations. They are the better team here, they have all the experience, and we think they will rise up tonight and win this game commandingly. As this series goes on fatigue starts to set in and as we saw in Game 4 and in Game 5 in Boston last night the defenses are starting to step up so we think the under is the play here in Game 5 as well.

Boston has covered and won every game in this postseason when at home. The Celtics didn’t look great in their two road losses in Cleveland but we think they will turn it around here at home. They got off to a slow start in Game 4 but they did a good job to stay competitive and we think they played pretty well overall despite the loss and non-cover. We thought the Celtics would be at least -3 here so we think there is some nice value in Game 5. This one looks like it will probably go to Game 7 as these teams can’t achieve any success on the road. We think the home team will get the job done tonight.

Anything under double-digits for this Golden State like is money, in our opinion. Game saw the Rockets even the series in Texas but Golden State really flexed their muscles in Game 3. We think that Game 2 might be the only win for Houston as we just don’t see these teams as anything close to equal despite the media going crazy about Houston having a chance in this series. The Warriors are much more of a complete team and they have more consistent players. While the Rockets are sure to put up more of a fight than they did in Game 3, we still think that this one has a great chance to be a double-digit win by the home team.

We like to back good teams off an embarrassing loss and that is the case here as Boston played awful in Game 3 and we think they will rebound big time here and challenge for the win in what should be a close game. We also like the over as Game 3 almost went over even with Boston getting blown out. We had the over in that game and the scrubs that were in the game the last couple minutes could not hit anything so it was kind of a bad beat. But with this game likely being more competitive we expect both teams to get their points to get this one over the posted number. We think the Celtics are the better team here and we expected this number to shrink from Game 3 and not get bigger, so we think there is nice value on the dog here tonight.

We are behind Golden State all the way in this series. They let their guard down a bit in Game 2 after getting a Game 1 blowout win in Houston. But now after losing Game 2 they will be extra motivated tonight, and a motivated Warriors team is a squad you want to bet on. We think they are by far the better team here and they will want to get some separation in the fourth quarter to prevent anything funky from happening and we think they have no problem covering this line as we expect a double-digit win here for the home team.

We doubt the Cleveland defense is going to clamp down as this series moves to Cleveland but we do think their offense will be better and get this one over the posted number. However, we do expect a competitive game here and we think the Celtics have a good chance to either keep this close or even win straight out. They have been the dominant team in this series by far and they have been playing their best basketball of the season during the last six games. We think this is a kind of changing of the guard in the Eastern Conference as the Celtics are going to be even better next season with some players coming back from injury and with some offseason moves. Boston has now covered in six of the last eight meetings between these teams and they are 11-3 ATS in the postseason overall after having one of the best ATS records during the regular season (Cleveland was the worst ATS team). We expect a close, high-scoring game here tonight.

We were excited to take the Warriors in Game 1 and they played even better than we expected. Now we are getting an even better line for Game 2. Everyone said that this is the series they wanted to see in the west since this would be competitive. It still has a chance to be. But we don’t think so. Even though the Rockets had the better record in the regular season that’s just because Golden State didn’t even try in the regular season. They saved up all their energy for the postseason. Now they are healthy and firing on all cylinders. And in our opinion with both teams at their best this series isn’t even close. Golden State doesn’t like to be challenged. When they hear the media and the public say that Houston has a chance here that just gives them the motivation they need to give that extra effort on every play, and despite some excellent players on Houston we don’t think the talent level matches up here at all. In fact, the only thing that can stop the Warriors is themselves and they will be the best until they break this team up. We think they might slip up in a game back at home but we think they want this bad to all but put a nail in the Rockets’ coffin for this series with a sweep in Houston.

There’s no getting around the fact that this Cleveland team is just not as good as the versions that have made the NBA Finals the last couple years. We think the Celtics have a great chance to win this series, and that certainly looked like it can happen after their Game 1 domination. Boston has probably the best coach in the NBA right now and he is doing his best work as he has this team looking like the clear best team in the east despite two major injuries to their stars. But he is making the best of the talent that he has available and many of these young players are coming into their own in front of our eyes. But the most important thing is that this team is playing great team basketball. Cleveland has to rely on LeBron to carry the team every night while the Celtics will be OK even if a couple guys have an off night. Boston is now a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS at home in the postseason. We think they will take this one tonight, maybe not in blowout fashion but this team has been underrated all postseason and they continue to get disrespected by the oddsmakers as we had them -5 here so obviously we think there is amazing line value tonight.

We are big on the Warriors in this series and we don’t think it will be as competitive as some think it will. We agree with the oddsmakers that the Warriors should be around -180 favorite here. We would probably put the moneyline around -200. And to be getting points for Game 1 seems like a gift. We think this Warriors team is one of, if not THE, best teams of all time. Of course, it’s hard to compare teams from different generations since they played a different style of NBA basketball back then. But Golden State ranks right up there, and Curry, in our minds, is one of the Top 5 players ever. He makes those around him better, he is cool under pressure, he is a true leader, and if he gets hot shooting there is no stopping him. All Golden State needs to do is win one game here in Houston to steal home-court advantage. While Houston went hard for regular-season success, the Warriors did the right thing and coasted through the regular season. And now here in Game 1 they can make that strategy work with a win here and then you just throw out the regular-season results. We think they will bring their A Game tonight. This team doesn’t like it when the public thinks an opponent has a chance. When they play with a chip on their shoulders they are at their best. And they seem to take a perverse pleasure in beating Chris Paul. They always got into his head in his days with the Clippers and they would still be shooting threes up big late in order to make the score even more lopsided. We think this has a very good chance to be a 7+-point win by the road team.

Both teams have really turned a corner in the playoffs. Both had somewhat disappointing regular seasons, but for Boston that had to do a lot with injuries. But the difference between these two teams is that the Cavs are always overrated by the oddsmakers. They were the worst team in the NBA for betting during the regular season. Even though they have been playing better as of late, we still think they are overrated here. We had Boston as 3.5-point favorites to open this series at home, and with the Cavs posted as slight favorites there is very nice value here. Boston is 9-3 ATS in these playoffs. They are a perfect 7-0 ATS at home in the postseason, and they haven’t lost a game here yet. This team is playing its best basketball of the season right now. The Cleveland squad is centered around one player, and if he has a down game they are toast. But if one or a couple guys for the Celtics have a down game then they are still in good shape since there will be other players there to step up. Boston also has a big coaching advantage and Stevens is on the top of his game right now. We always thought the Cavs would have trouble reaching the NBA Finals this year, and we think this series will probably go 6 or 7 games, but we have to take Boston here in Game 1 as we think they are very underrated coming into this series.

Philly covered their first game of the series in Game 4 as Boston let down their guard a bit. But now that the Sixers got a win and the series shifts back to Boston for Game 5, we think it’s of the utmost importance for them for them to close out the series here in Game 5. If they lose here then in Game 6 the Sixers will be sizable favorites back in Philly and then if they won there they would probably be decent favorites in a potential Game 7 back here in Boston. So we know the Boston players and coaches have some urgency here. Boston has been the much better team for most of this series. The lines seem to be set according to how the regular season went as opposed to the postseason as the Sixers are short on experience and the Celtics have the better coaching in this series. They have also now covered in six of the last eight meetings. We think Boston will do everything in their power to end this one on their home court tonight, and we think there’s a good chance they get a comfortable win here.

We took a small stake on the Jazz series price as we thought it was a bit high but Utah blew it in their two home games after stealing a game in Houston and now that play is sunk unless the Jazz can pull off another big upset here. We don’t know about that but the Jazz are a proud team and we think they will play well here in a likely elimination game. They are well-coached and one of the better defensive teams in the NBA and we think they can keep the Rockets offense down to a low enough score to cover this big line. The Rockets are 12-19 ATS when laying double-digit points this season and we don’t think that this game will be a blowout.

While we like Boston in that 3-0 series, we do think the underdog here will have a chance to win the game. We are not sure why the Raptors have stunk so bad in this series. We thought they would win this one in six. But Cleveland has played their best basketball of the season in this series. Sometimes it’s just a case of one team having the other’s number, and that surely seems like the case here. Toronto probably would have been much better off facing any other team. Unlike Philly, who doesn’t have any playoff experience, the Raps do, and we see them giving one last gasp here and we think they will play with a lot of pride tonight and maybe even win this one straight out.

When a team goes up 3-0 in a series that normally means the series is over. Philadelphia is a young team and we just don’t see them rising up and playing their best game of the series here. Boston has clearly been the better team in this series. The bookies adjusted this Game 4 line, but we don’t think that they adjusted enough. Boston has shifted into another gear in this postseason and this team is very well coached. You get the feeling that Philly, despite their strong finish in the regular season, is still a ways away from being a credible postseason team. We expect another close game here and you just have to take the points in this matchup with the dominance that the Celtics have shown in this series.

Game 3 was an ugly one for the Jazz and this was kind of the perfect storm in that Utah didn’t play well and the Rockets were just about perfect early. And before the game had even got started it was already over. We always like to back a good team after an embarrassing loss. The Jazz will play much better tonight, we are certain of that. This team has a great home-court advantage and their fans didn’t deserve that effort in Game 3. We think they go extra hard tonight to make amends for that. We think the Jazz team from Game 2 will be the one to show up here tonight.

There is no better team in the NBA to back, in our opinion, when they have a chip on their shoulder than the Golden State Warriors. And after getting completely embarrassed in Game 3 we think they come out here on a mission. New Orleans is a very solid team and they have played great down the stretch. But if both teams are playing at their best then we think this one won’t be close. The Warriors aren’t going to shoot so poorly two games in a row and we think they bring their A Game tonight.

It looks on paper like the Raptors are pretty much done. They lost both games at home and they didn’t look like they had any interest in the second half of Game 2 on their home court. But a team in the NBA is never as good or bad as their last game and we think the Raptors still have a chance in this series. This is certainly the most important game of the series for them. Lose it and they are toast. Win it and they are right back in this thing. After such a lousy performance in Game 2 we think they focus here and play a much better game. Cleveland has looked great, but we have to remember that this team has disappointed all season and LeBron James can’t put on the superman cape every night. We think this will be a close game and we have to take the points here.

We can’t believe how high this line is and we have to admit this one has us scratching our head. The Celtics are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now and they are clearly the better team in this series. The Sixers are a young team devoid of much playoff experience and we think they might flame out early in this playoff series. They were one of the best teams down the stretch of the regular season, but the playoffs are a whole different animal and it seems like Boston has their number. Not to mention that Boston has the best coach in the playoffs right now and we think he will find a way for Boston to keep this one real competitive and have his team in a position to win it in the fourth quarter.

We have a futures play on the Jazz, which is looking better and better after they stole home-court advantage in the series with a big Game 2 win in Houston. Utah doesn’t have any big-name stars, so maybe that is why they are getting so much disrespect here. But they played as well as any team in the NBA down the stretch after a slow start and we think this team is a real threat to win this series, especially against notorious playoff chokers Chris Paul and James Harden. We certainly think that this Game 3 line is too large. We think Utah will challenge for the win here. We think this will be a very competitive game and both teams will get their fair share of points, and we expect both squads to finish well over 100 in a tightly-contested game.

We backed the Pelicans as a big underdog on the road in Games 1 and 2, but now the spread has shrunk and there is value with the Warriors as home court advantage isn’t a big deal in this series in our opinion. The Warriors have a healthy Steph Curry back and they are in championship form right now. New Orleans played their best in Game 2 and it was good enough to cover the big spread but not nearly good enough to win. And we feel that the Warriors will give it their all tonight in this crucial Game 3. If they lose this is a series but if they win this is all but over, and with Utah stealing Game 2 against the Rockets that gives Golden State even more motivation to finish this one off early so they can rest more before the conference finals.

The Raptors got a wakeup call in Game 1 and the Cavs took back home-court advantage in the series. So Toronto is in a must-win situation tonight or they are in danger of wasting probably the best team they have had in franchise history. Cleveland got a full-team effort in Game 1 but LeBron James’ supporting cast hasn’t stepped up all that often and this team has to be tired after finishing up their 7-Game series against Indiana and then stepping right into this one against a much better team. James can’t give a superhuman effort in every single game and we think he might struggle tonight after playing hero in almost every game. The Cavs can kind of take a moment to breathe here now that they accomplished the mission of stealing one on the road in Game 1. And that extra frame of overtime hurts the Cavs more than the Raptors since they were the more fatigued team coming into this game. The bookies have not adjusted this line from Game 1, but we had this line adjusted to 8, and we think there is a decent chance that Toronto wins this one by double digits.

After New Orleans got their butts handed to them in Game 1 against Golden State we thought they would bounce back and play a much more competitive game in Game 2, and that’s just what happened. We expect the same thing to happen here in Game 2 in Houston. The Jazz got behind big in the first half as they trailed by 20+ points in Game 1 but they played much better in the second half and they made the game respectable at the end. We think they will carry that positive momentum over here to Game 2. The Jazz are a very good team and they play excellent defense and great fundamental team basketball. We just don’t see them getting blown out in two straight games, and pride should kick in for this team after playing so poorly in the first half in Game 1. The Rockets are 12-18 ATS when laying double digits this season so they haven’t flourished in the role of the big favorite. We think this game will be much closer and the Jazz are good enough to challenge for the win.

We will give the Pelicans a mulligan for Game 1. That was an embarrassing loss for a team that has played as well as anyone in the NBA the last month+. We think that it was more of an off game than any sign that the series will be a four-game blowout. New Orleans had covered in nine straight games before that Game 1 loss and we expect them to play much better here tonight. And we are getting an even better line here than we did in Game 1. Even though the total has been inflated after the over just missed in Game 1, we expect the Pelicans to be more competitive and the pace here should be very fast as the Pels have stated they won’t slow down despite the Game 1 result. If New Orleans had played better on offense that total may have surpassed 240 because of the pace, and we think that might be the kind of game we see tonight.

We think this is the end of the line for the Cavaliers. This team is just not good enough this season. LeBron James had to do way too much in Round 1 against Indiana and he is probably going to run out of gas in this one against a much better team. Toronto knows that they have to go for the jugular here in Game 1 and we think they will be very focused tonight. Cleveland has bounced the Raptors the last two years out of the playoffs and now it will be time for some payback. Of course, James will be the best player on the court during this series but overall the Raps are a much deeper team and the bench will make all the difference here. This team is miles better than Indiana and we expect this series to be over in six games and Toronto should make a statement here in Game 1.

The Sixers are the much better team in this matchup. Boston was lucky to get by Milwaukee in the first round and we think they are in over their head here in Round 2. Next year they will be a force with Irving and Hayward back in the fold, but this year they just have too many injuries to win against such a stacked team like Philly. The Sixers have been resting up while Boston had to play a Game 7 just on Saturday and we don’t think they will have much left here. The Sixers should be able to reach their offensive goals against a fatigued team. We just can’t see the Celtics locking in on defense and slowing this Sixers team down since they just ended their last series. Philly is 4-1 ATS in the last five games in Boston. We see that trend staying true tonight and we think there is a great chance the Sixers can put up 110+ here so the over is the play.

We would bet the Jazz at this line every day of the week and once again on Tuesday. Absolutely love this one. You are telling us that the Jazz are getting just about the same line as the Timberwolves did when they played in Houston? Sign us up. We are not convinced that the Rockets are a true championship contender yet. They should have swept the Wolves and each game should have been a double-digit win. They did get some blowouts in that series but they also lost one game in blowout fashion and they almost lost Game 1 as well. And remember, although Chris Paul is probably at his best when paired with Harden this guy is a known playoff loser and has never advanced beyond this round of the postseason with any team during his illustrious career. That streak will probably end this year, but it’s no sure thing and the Jazz should be very competitive in this series. They are as hot as any team in the NBA down the stretch of the season and they play great defense and can heat up on offense to match any team.

These teams have gone over in four of the last five matchups. We see this game being played at a very fast pace and we think both teams will get their fair share of points. Actually, we think this game will be pretty competitive. The Pelicans are the hottest team in the NBA right now and they completely embarrassed the No. 3 Blazers in Round 1. This team is going to play hard tonight and all indications show they should play well. We think this line is inflated by a couple points. Curry may or may not play here, but even if he does he will be rusty. The Warriors have been the best team in basketball the last few years but they have had some adversity in the playoffs and we don’t think they will steamroll in this series and this one should last six games. The Pels should be a value play throughout the series. We also think the defenses will tighten up as the series progresses but this Game 1 should be free flowing.

We have the Bucks on the series line and will roll with them here for a smaller-unit play. Many of these games have been close but we think the Bucks will advance but this should be another close game so the points may come in handy here.

We have a futures play for the Jazz in this series and we think they will close it out tonight at home here in Game 6 with an exclamation point. They had better get it done tonight as they will be underdogs again if they have to go back to OKC for Game 7. We think Utah is the better team despite the records for the regular season. Both teams got off to a slow start, but Utah had to deal with a lot of injuries early in the season but they have been one of the best teams in the NBA down the stretch. They have it all as they are solid on both offense and defense, and they play better team basketball than do the Thunder. OKC for a massive performance from Russell Westbrook in Game 5 and that’s why they won that game. But I don’t think that they can count on him doing the same in consecutive games and here on the road in Utah, one of the toughest places to play in the NBA. Utah won comfortably in both games at home in this series and we see the same result here tonight. We think they lock down on defense and their offense has been explosive at home in the last couple months. OKC always gets a little more credit than they should from the oddsmakers as they have the big names on the roster but this Big 3 experiment has been a disaster and we see their season ending tonight and think there’s a good chance Utah wins this one by double digits.

The season is on the line for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight as they face elimination at home in Game 6 of this series. We expect them to rise to the occasion. They played well enough to win in two of the three games in Boston and they were very impressive in their two home wins even though they let Boston rally for the backdoor cover in Game 4. Milwaukee has a really great home court advantage and this is the most important game in years for Bucks fans, and we think the crowd will be a factor tonight. The home team has won in every game in this series. We expect that trend to continue tonight and this line is more than fair. Also, it looks like the public is big on the Celtics here so this play is a nice public fade. Milwaukee has the best player on the court tonight, and we expect the Greek Freak to rise to the occasion. The NBA is a star-driven league and the Celtics just don’t fit the bill in these playoffs with multiple injuries to big-name players this season.

The Raptors have covered both games at home in this series and we think they could be in a solid position to have a big scoring burst like they did in Game 2. Three of the four games in this series have gone over the posted total as have both games in Toronto. With the Raptors back home and the Wizards tying up the series when the teams were in Washington we think Toronto will come in here extra focused and they are the much better and deeper team. Almost every team faces some adversity in the postseason but we still think Toronto is the most likely team to emerge from the east. We could see them put up a massive point total like in Game 2 when they scored 130.

The Cavs are a team that we have faded all season with much success. But this team is still better than the Pacers, who were expected to be one of the worst teams in the east entering the season. They have some momentum here after evening up the season with a Game 4 win in Indiana. This is the most crucial game for the Cavs and if they lose this one they are in big trouble. Superstars get the best treatment from the refs and we have a feeling that LeBron will get a lot of calls tonight. The games aren’t fixed but the NBA definitely favors the best players and you see it year after year with the lopsided officiating. And do you think the NBA wants the Pacers to advance here in this series? We think the Cavs will have a big game tonight and this line has been adjusted the wrong way.

We see this matchup kind of like the Game 4 matchup. We think both teams will get over the century mark here and that it will be a close game. That’s why we have to take the points here with the Bucks. We have Milwaukee to win this series and we still think that is true, so they have to win at Boston at some point either here or Game 7. They have momentum after evening the series up with two strong wins at home and we think they can get the job done here. We expect a close game here and think it’s basically a coin flip as to who wins it but the points with the underdog are pretty valuable in this case. Six straight meetings have now gone over the total and we don’t see that trend changing tonight.

We often like to back a good team after a bad loss and that is the case here as Houston was embarrassed last time out here in this same building. But despite that Game 3 result this is still a mismatch and we expect the Rockets to make quick work of this series and close it out back in Houston in Game 5. That Game 3 result was an embarrassing one for the No. 1 seed in the west and they will come out more focused here and they shouldn’t have to work too hard to earn a comfortable win here. We think this could be a possible double-digit win for the road club tonight.

We have the Jazz winning this series at an underdog price and after gaining home-court advantage with a strong win in OKC for Game 2, this is the next step in the progression for this team to advance to the next round. The Big Three experiment in OKC was a failure in our minds and this Utah team is the better ballclub at this point in the season. They started off the season real slow when dealing with injuries but this team has been one of the best clubs in the NBA down the stretch of the regular season and we expect them to take care of business here at home in what we think will be a win by seven or more points on Saturday.

We think the Wolves had their chance in Game 1 when the Rockets had an off game, but they blew it. Now this series is all Houston. We are getting a solid line here since the Rockets are on the road, but this team was 24-17 ATS on the road this season despite facing some very inflated numbers. We actually had this line handicapped at Houston -7.5 so we think this line has very nice value. We like the Wolves as a team but this squad looks like they are just happy to be here in the postseason and they need to grow and add another piece or two before we can take them seriously as a real contender.

Toronto in our eyes is the clear-cut best team in the east and the third best team in the NBA. We had them handicapped at -2.5 in this game so this is great value getting them at an underdog price. Washington is often overvalued at home this season as their 16-24-1 ATS record can attest to. The Raptors have covered in four of the last five meetings after wins and covers in Games 1 and 2. We like the Wizards as a team but this squad is pretty thin on the bench and the Raptors are a very deep team and the much better squad overall. This looks like a series that could end up in a sweep and we think the road team pulls out a close one here on Friday to put Washington on the brink of elimination.

As if things weren’t bad enough for the Spurs right now, they have to deal with off-the-court issues for Game 3 here as Gregg Popovich’s wife passed away and he will miss the game tonight. Everyone in the NBA is mourning but the Warriors are very focused and they won’t give the Spurs any sympathy on the court tonight. And Pop is arguably the best coach in the NBA so even with his top assistants running he show this still hurts the Spurs for in-game adjustments. Golden State is in fine form right now and they coasted through the regular season to excel in the playoffs and we think they will clamp down on the Spurs throat tonight in the next step to end this series in four games.

We think the Blazers are toast and this series is probably a sweep. Portland has to be completely demoralized after getting beat in both of their home games to start the series. New Orleans is playing as well as any team in the NBA right now and they have won seven straight. Everybody knows the Rockets are Warriors are the teams to beat in the west playoffs this season. In order to have a puncher’s chance the Pelicans need to finish this series off in four games. New Orleans is getting a complete team effort while the Blazers seem to be disjointed and out of sorts. New Orleans has now covered in four of the last five meetings and we think they make it five of six tonight.

This Utah team was one of the best in the NBA down the stretch run of the season and we think they put forth a much better effort here in Game 2 after a pretty lackluster showing in Game 1. We think with all the parity in the NBA this season that many of these series are going to go long and there will be some more road upsets. We think Utah has a great chance to win this one straight out. The Thunder have been underachieving all season, even though they played great in Game 1. But just when you think this team is for real they play an uninspired game. We expect a close game here, and we have to take the points as we think Utah will be more focused for Game 2 and they have an even better line.

Game 1 wasn’t a fluke. The Cavaliers are way down this year and they don’t look like a team that is going to do anything of significance in these playoffs. After dropping Game 1 we think they will find a way to win this one but we are scratching our head about this line as the bookies did not make any adjustment after Game 1 was all Indiana. LeBron James did his part for the Cavs, but he didn’t have any help. Indiana has a lot of confidence coming into this one. All the pressure is on Cleveland here. The Pacers were not even supposed to make the playoffs, but here they are with a chance to do some damage in the first round and they can play loose and free while the Cavs will be desperate. But they don’t have the tools this year to contend, and LeBron can’t carry this team all by himself.

We were on Milwaukee for Game 1 and it was sort of a bad beat as they were getting four points and were down by 3 as they hit a miracle shot at the buzzer to take the game to OT, where they lost by six in the extra frame. We think the Bucks will win this series and we think that they take Game 2 here. Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks is a real superstar and the best player on the court tonight and we think the playoffs are the time when he will rise up and lead his team. We just can’t see this Boston team with all its injuries this season winning this series, and this Game 2 is crucial for the Bucks. Milwaukee had a back-and-forth regular season but we think that this team is built for the postseason and we expect them to at least advance to the next round. When you have a star like the Greek Freak you will tend to get the calls from the refs in the postseason as well. Milwaukee played a very uneven game in Game 1 and they still were in a position to win it late. We expect them to play a more complete game here on Tuesday in Game 2.

Kudos to the Timberwolves for ending their long playoff drought and getting back to the postseason. However, they needed their last game, and overtime no less, to get in the postseason. This has been a real underachieving season for this club and they just aren’t good enough here. We think they know that and they are just happy to be invited to the party but this team is still a year or two away from serious contention and the Rockets are there now and they are one of the best teams in basketball. We think it’s important for the Rockets to close this one out quickly and we think that this series will include some Houston blowouts and we certainly expect them to win big here in Game 1.

We see this as a pretty competitive game. We have the Bucks winning this series so we think they will take at least one game here during the first two in Boston and we think both games will be close. The Bucks are very healthy and have a clean injury sheet coming into this game while the Celtics season has been derailed by injuries, and we think that will be too much to overcome here. Milwaukee will also have the best player on the court for this series in the Greek Freak and a player like him can take over individual games and even the entire series. It seems like this is his time to shine and we think he is really going to break out in this series. We thought the total here should be about 206 so we think there is some good value here in this Game 1 that we think will be pretty free flowing before the defenses tighten up later in what should be a drawn out series.

The Pelicans had a strong end to the regular season and as a result we think they are getting too much credit in this game. The Blazers are a really good squad this season and the Pelicans are a hobbled team without Cousins and they are probably not good enough even with him. We think the Blazers will take advantage of home-court advantage to take a strong lead in this series. Portland is 20-10 ATS this season as a favorite of 5.5 or fewer points, so they normally excel in this situation against a solid club at home. They are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams here in Portland. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight on two day’s rest as they are here, and we think the extra rest and home crowd will help propel them to a big Game 1 win.

The Clippers have just dominated this series as they have won in six straight meetings and they have covered in five of those games as well. This is a rivalry and the Clippers take pride in beating the Lakers since they are the little brother in the city of Los Angeles. But even though neither team is going to the postseason, the Clippers are the much better team. This is a playoff-quality club and they should be in the postseason but the West is even tougher than normal this year so they just missed it. They have been playing lately like a team that had too much pressure on its shoulders but we think they will play free and have fun tonight in the final game of the season, and their final chance to play together as this team will probably go through many changes in the offseason. The Clips are coming off three bad losses to playoff-type teams and we know they don’t want to end what has been a surprisingly solid season with four straight and we think they give max effort tonight.

We think the Wizards will get back on track here tonight, as they have more motivation in this game since the Celtics are locked into the No. 2 seed in the east and can’t move up or down. Both teams have been playing badly but the Celtics have more problems with injuries and such while the Wizards are healthy for this game. These teams could meet in the playoffs and you get the feeling that Celtics coach Brad Stevens might not care much about winning this game as not to tip his hand to his postseason strategies.

We just don’t like the Bucks as a big favorite. And their opponent tonight has done very well as a big underdog. The Bucks are 1-7 ATS this season when laying eight or more points. This is a team that just does not earn expected blowouts. The Magic are 10-3 ATS when getting double-digit points this season, making them one of the best bets in the NBA as a big underdog. The Magic are being punished too much for being on a bac-to-back here, and they are 7-0 ATS in the second half of their last seven back-to-backs. They are also 5-2 ATS in the last seven games in this series. Orlando is another team that looks like they want to finish the season on a positive note, and we will back them getting double digits here tonight.

We often find “revenge” to be an overstated NBA handicapping angle. But we do think it comes into play when the teams have recently met. That would normally factor in here as these teams met on Saturday in Chicago, with the Nets scoring a nearly 30-point road win. But this one doesn’t set up as a revenge game in our eyes. The Bulls are tanking now and they want the most ping pong balls in the draft lottery. The Nets don’t own their first-round pick so they are motivated to finish the season strong. Brooklyn is the much better team and a Top 5 ATS team on the season. The Nets have also covered in four of the last five meetings.

We were on Detroit on Sunday and that was a disaster as they were blown out in Memphis. But this team has been playing pretty well overall down the stretch and we think they will put forth a much better effort tonight after the embarrassing effort they displayed on Sunday. Toronto is pretty much on cruise control to finish the season. If this team wants to flex their muscles they can beat any team on any night. But this squad has locked up the No. 1 seed in the east and they have nothing to play for. If Detroit hadn’t lost badly on Sunday we might not like this play so much but we think that gives them incentive to play well here and they were possibly looking ahead to this game on Sunday as well.

Detroit waited until they were essentially eliminated from the playoff hunt to start playing well, but here we are and they are playing their best basketball since the beginning of the season. This team has won eight of their last 10 and they have figure out how to win on the road, too. Memphis is banged up as always and this team doesn’t have anything to play for. They have been one of the worst teams in the NBA down the stretch. This team played recent games against New Orleans and Portland and they head on the road next to face Minnesota and OKC. We doubt they get too amped to play this non-playoff team from the east and if they are going to pull a full effort out of their bag of tricks it would likely come against a more traditional rival.

This one is all about motivation. The Pelicans have all the motivation here on Saturday as they fight for a playoff spot. The Warriors are more concerned about keeping everyone healthy, and from this point, despite what Coach Kerr says, we don’t think that Golden State gives a squat about any of these regular season games and they are on cruise control until the playoffs. Golden State has been one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA this season as they haven’t taken these games seriously at all. And that is good for them as we all saw what happened as they spent too much energy during their record-setting regular-season. We think the Pels have a good chance to win this outright.

The Bulls are coming in on a back-to-back. They lost at Boston last night and that was probably a game they wanted to play better in than this one tonight. This team is tanking and there will be many nobodies on the floor tonight. Chicago is 3-10 straight up and 4-8-1 ATS on the second end of a back-to-back this season. Brooklyn is one of the teams that they are fighting with for draft position and ping pong balls. However, the Nets don’t own their pick this year so they have no reason not to play hard here. The Nets are a Top 5 ATS team this season and they have covered three of four in this series. This is a team that seems to want to end the season on a positive note, and this is a chance for a rare road blowout win.

The Clippers would probably make the playoffs if they had an easier schedule down the stretch. This is a pretty good team and they work hard every night. But they just have an uphill climb to reach the postseason. This game comes after hosting San Antonio, in a game where you almost feel like they “left it all on the court” with a furious comeback, and then they host the Nuggets and Pelicans in their next two games. And that is going to be too tough to overcome. This is their last road game of the season, and we don’t see this going well for them. Utah is very strong at home and they are just the better team. We think that the Jazz have a good chance to win this one by double digits, and we expect Utah to flex their muscles here as the Clippers look like a team that peaked too soon and the weight of this brutal season-ending schedule is starting to show in some poor recent results for this squad, like the Indiana game at home where the Clippers needed a win but choked the game away in the fourth quarter.

Both teams enter off a back-to-back. But Dallas has to travel here on the road, which makes things a lot tougher. Both teams won last night. Dallas beat Portland at home. That was a big win for them. They are probably satisfied with that win as the season winds down and after playing playoff-type teams the last three games we think they won’t care much about this road opponent tonight. The Magic earned a much less impressive win last night since they only beat the Knicks. But they did it on the road and they won by 20+, so it was impressive in its own right. The Magic have the big advantage of being home tonight and they will want to play well in front of the home fans and maybe build a little winning streak here with momentum coming off of one of their most impressive wins of the season. Their defense was awesome last night and we think they can hold the Mavs to a real low score here as well.

San Antonio has had a down season compared to what we are used to. However, they have started playing like the Spurs we are all used to lately. This team seems to have accepted the fact that they are moving forward without Leonard and that is the best thing for this team. They are in playoff form right now, and we think they win this game pretty comfortably. The Clippers pretty much blew their playoff chances in a home loss to the Pacers and if they could not beat Indiana then how will they rise up to play better against a much stronger team? The Clippers have played well above expectations this season after their stars left, but it seems they peaked too early. This one is an easy call tonight.

The Celtics are the No. 1 betting team this season and they are the No. 3 defensive team for points allowed and we think both those trends will contribute to our betting interests tonight. Boston has just been incredible on defense lately and none of their last six opponents have gone higher than the century mark. We don’t see the Bucks doing anything special on offense tonight, and they will struggle to get anywhere near 100 points. Milwaukee has played in some high scoring games lately but they have played more high-paced teams. But they will struggle to put points up tonight. Defense wins out in this one and we see the Celtics winning 105-98 or a somewhat similar score.

Toronto has covered in only one of the last six meetings (one push). We think this is a good spot for the Cavs here. Cleveland is a team we have been fading almost all season, and they have been the worst betting team in the league. But with the playoffs fast approaching we think it’s time to go the other way as this team is taking games more seriously. And they will want to flex their muscles here against the Raptors in a potential playoff preview. Toronto has a much more important game on Wednesday vs. Boston and they might not go full bore here in a more meaningless matchup. If they win vs. the Celtics that will go a long way towards sealing up the No. 1 seed and home court throughout the playoffs. Toronto has failed to cover the line now in eight straight games. They are in cruise control until the postseason, and Wednesday’s game might be the last one they take seriously down the stretch of the season (assuming they win).

10 Unit Play. Take #602 Villanova over Michigan (9:20p.m., Monday April 2 TBS) Villanova has just been head and shoulders above everyone else in this tournament. They only game they did not play well offensively was their regional final against Texas Tech. They still controlled that game throughout and covered the spread with ease. Michigan has not been shooting it well of late but they have been getting by with a super easy draw. That will not be the case on Monday as they face the best team in the country. Throw in the fact that Michigan has not performed well in the national championship game and expect Villanova to win by 10-12 points. The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against Big 10 teams.

Detroit has won four straight and six of seven games, and we liked the way they played last night even though we were on the other side but they took care of business vs. New York in a tough spot. Both of these teams played last night but the Nets went to OT and played a more grueling game against the physical Heat. The Nets have been a team we have backed a lot this season as an underdog but we don’t trust this team as a favorite and we think they are a solid fade in this position. Also, the Pistons have faint playoff hopes so that gives them extra motivation in this matchup.

The Clippers have a couple different levels of motivation here. First, they lost to Indiana on the road a little over a week ago. It was a pretty close game throughout. Revenge is not an angle we use for NBA handicapping too much, but when the teams played recently it takes on a bigger importance, and we have no doubt that the Clips don’t want to look back at these two games against a beatable opponent and see that’s what kept them out of the playoffs. Secondly, the Clippers need to win every game they can. They are on the outside looking in for the playoff picture and they have a very tough schedule down the stretch while the Pacers are more secure in their playoff positioning. Lastly, the Clippers are coming off one of their worst games in a couple weeks last time out in Portland and they will want to put forth a better effort here. We thought this line should be closer to 5.5 so we think there is nice value here for Sunday!

Golden State has been dealing with a lot of injuries. They have lost three straight, all at home no less, and that just doesn’t happen with this team. This is a team with a lot of pride. And the best talent in the league. And we think they come out with a vengeance tonight and win this one big over the tanking Kings. Thompson should be back on the court tonight and this team will have all its All-Stars besides Curry and that is a really formidable club. Also, Kevin Durant was ejected last game so we think he comes out with a monster game to make things right. This team should be very focused tonight, and they are extremely dangerous with that mindset!

The Nets are 25-9 ATS when getting six or more points this season! This is one of the better underdog bets in the NBA and this team normally plays with a chip on their shoulders when getting lots of points against a good team. They are also 24-12 ATS on the road this season, so they are often getting too many points on the road in situations like this, and we definitely think that is the case here tonight. And remember that the Nets are one of the few lottery teams that don’t have any incentive to tank since they don’t own their pick in the upcoming draft, so this is a team you can trust to play hard and prideful down the stretch.

The Pistons are one of the worst road teams in the NBA among those clubs competing for a playoff spot. Well, the Pistons are sunk now that Blake Griffin is out for likely the rest of the regular season. And the Knicks have seven more wins at home than the Pistons have on the road! The Knicks have covered in six of their last eight games and they have been playing hard despite injuries. But we feel like the value here on Saturday definitely lies with the home team as we had this game handicapped at Detroit -1 and we think this one is really a coin flip as to who wins so getting this many points is great tonight.

This Cleveland team is one we have been fading for most of the year but we think now is the time to go the other way on this team, which has been the worst bet in the NBA all season. But now that we are in the playoff stretch run this team is staring to play really well and they are shaping into playoff form and seem to be taking the games more seriously. They have won five straight and have covered four in a row. The Hornets have won four straight, but those were against really bad teams, and they needed OT to get by the Knicks last time out, at home no less. Cleveland has won eight in a row in the series and they have covered all but two of the spreads during that streak (one push).