Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star NFL Oddsmaker ERROR* The Kansas City Chiefs have had a lot of regular season success the last couple years, and I believe they made their team better in the offseason. Kansas City has a great runner in Jamaal Charles. Charles is one of the best game breakers in the NFL. The Chiefs defense got better in the offseason, and they were already very good. Marcus Peters will be very good at the corner spot, and Eric Berry is back to provide more depth in the secondary. Kansas City has an elite pass rush, and the Houston offensive line is susceptible. Houston's defense is very good, but the Chiefs defense doesn't get the credit it deserves. Alex Smith might not be fabulous, but he is certainly better than Hoyer. Kansas City has been great on the road in the past couple years as well. Houston is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Best Bet* The Cleveland Browns offense is laughable, but their defense is very solid. You could say the same thing about the New York Jets. New York's defense got a lot better in the offseason. The Jets front seven was tremendous last year, but the secondary was a problem. What did the Jets do in the offseason? They grabbed Revis and Cromartie to give themselves a good secondary again. The Jets defensive front is still one of the best in the league. How is Cleveland going to do anything on offense here? The weather looks to be less than ideal for this game as well. On the other side, the Jets have more questions than ever on the offensive side of the ball. Look for both teams to struggle to punch the ball into the end zone here. Low scoring all the way. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Opening Night KNOCKOUT* It's Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. These are definitely two of the best quarterbacks in the game, and both of these guys should be ready to go. The Patriots have had all kinds of controversies around them in the offseason. If it were another team, I might be concerned about where there mind would be, but New England has been here before and they have shown they are great at focusing on the task at hand. In my estimation, both of these defenses got a little weaker in the offseason. New England lost Wilfork and Revis, so they certainly are weaker. Pittsburgh lost a really good defensive coordinator in Lebeau. Both quarterbacks should have plenty of open receivers. The over is 32-13 in the Patriots last 45 home games. Look for plenty of offensive fireworks in the NFL season opener. Take the over. 

*3 Star Super Bowl RED HOT CASH* The current New England Patriots may be seeing their window close, and I think they know it. Tom Brady isn't getting any younger, and as good as the Patriots have been for a very long time, they haven't won a Super Bowl since 2004. They come into this one with a ton of motivation. I respect Pete Carroll, but I believe the Patriots do have a coaching advantage here with Belichick on the sideline. His innovative schemes are very tough to slow down.

While Seattle's defense has been nothing short of amazing this year, they are playing against an excellent New England offense here. Rob Gronkowski is arguably the toughest guy in the NFL to defend, and Seattle's defense has had some problems stopping good tight ends this year. Brandon LaFell is an underrated weapon on the outside as well, and I see him having a big role in this game.

New England's defense is underrated by most. The Patriots are particularly good at stopping the run, and Seattle isn't the type of team that can kill you consistently through the air. I think this game will be close, and I think it will be the Patriots that make the key plays in the fourth quarter and win. Take New England.

*Bonus 1 star prop bet- Brandon LaFell over 50.5 receiving yards- With Rob Gronkowski getting so much attention, LaFell will find more open spots on the field. Tom Brady targeted LaFell 119 times this year, and LaFell is a tall and talented wideout who could easily have a breakout game here. Over 50.5 receiving yards.*

*3 Star NFC Championship Totals CASH* The Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers meet with the winner heading to the Super Bowl in a couple weeks. Seattle's defense has been playing amazing down the stretch, but they actually weren't as good last week. I think that motivates them even more and has them ready to go last week. Remember, before last week this group had allowed 7 points or less to five of their last six opponents. That's a ridiculous run, and with the home crowd behind them this defense is scary good. 

There's no doubt that Aaron Rodgers is far less than 100% here. Rodgers hobbled all through the Packers win against Dallas, and the Packers offense wasn't the same. Expect more runs for Lacey here, but the Seahawks run defense is very good. Seattle's offense is good, but they aren't spectacular. The Seahawks haven't been driving the ball down the field consistently, rather it has been about big plays for them.

The weather will be a major factor in this game. Heavy rain is expected as well as winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour. While most pay attention to the rain, the wind is the bigger factor to watch. Both passing games will struggle to cope with that kind of wind, and that should mean a lot more running of the football and it gives the defense an edge.

With Rodgers hobbling and the nasty weather in Seattle, the under is the way I'll go here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Seattle Seahawks defense is the best in the league, and it's not even close. Seattle doesn't have a weakness on defense. This Seahawks defense is tremendous against both the run and the pass. They are playing their best football down the stretch. Seattle has held five of their last six opponents to seven points or less! Carolina's offense hasn't been consistent this year, and I don't trust Cam Newton to play well in Seattle against a defense this talented. 

The Panthers defense was ranked number one in the NFL in total defense most of last year. They started this year struggling badly, but Carolina's defense has really picked up their play of late. In their last 4 games they are allowing only 10.75 points per game. Seattle's offense is good, but they aren't excellent. They have been held down by several good defenses this year.

Both teams love to run the football, so the clock should keep ticking away in this one. This total is set low, but it's certainly not ridiculously low. I think there's a good chance both offenses struggle to find the end zone much at all in this game. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals meet in the WildCard round of the NFL playoffs. Andy Dalton hasn't won a playoff game yet, and he probably won't win one here either. I don't trust Dalton a bit to start with based on his history in big games, and now that A.J. Green has been declared out for this one, the Bengals offense will have to rely on the ground game. Jeremy Hill has been very good, and Cincinnati will likely get some yards on the ground here, but it's tough to be one-dimensional in the NFL. The Colts shutout the Bengals earlier this year, and you have to think they'll be prepared for a heavy dose of the ground game here. Andrew Luck is a clutch quarterback, but his supporting cast isn't very good. The Bengals defense has been better late in the year, and they should hold their own.

The under is 6-0 in the Bengals last 6 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in the Colts last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Indianapolis between these two teams. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Oddsmaker ERROR* The Atlanta Falcons haven't impressed me this year. Atlanta is a team that is poorly coached, and the Falcons haven't improved even close to as much as this Carolina Panthers team has. Atlanta took advantage of a pathetic New Orleans team last week and the Falcons get a home game here. Carolina's running game has quietly been getting healthy (Stewart was back last week) and they are performing at a high level right now. The Panthers definitely have the better defense in this game. Atlanta's defense has given up yards in big amounts against just about everyone this year. Cam Newton is showing some impressive toughness late in the year. The Panthers defense should be the difference. I think the Panthers win outright. Take Carolina. 

*3 Star NFL Home Field CASH* The Seattle Seahawks badly want home field advantage all through the playoffs. Why wouldn't they? Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL, and it is going to be extremely tough for anyone to go to Seattle and win. St. Louis was disappointing in a home loss to New York last week, and the Rams don't have anything to play for in this game. Also keep in mind that St. Louis upset the Seahawks earlier this year in a game that was a bit of a fluke. Seattle dominated the game but came up just short on the scoreboard. Seattle gets their revenge at home here. The Seahawks are playing some terrific football right now. Take Seattle. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Green Bay Packers were beaten badly at Detroit earlier this year. This is their chance for revenge. There is a lot on the line in this game. These two teams are tied for the top spot in the NFC North. The winner of this game is likely to get the number two spot in the NFC playoff standings and get a bye week in the playoffs. Green Bay is 5-1-1 ATS at home this year, and their one non-cover was against Atlanta when the Packers simply let off the gas too early. I don't think that will be a problem here. Green Bay isn't going to want to leave anything to doubt. The Lions are a dome team, and I think most will be surprised with how well the Packers defense does against them in this contest.

Detroit is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 15 points or less. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 30-0 angle. Take Green Bay. 

*3 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The St. Louis Rams defense has impressed me all year long. The front seven does a great job pressuring the quarterback. Eli Manning has had trouble with holding onto the ball too long, and that won't work Sunday against this St. Louis defense. The Rams secondary is athletic and the Giants wideouts won't have as many mismatches as they normally do when they go deep. New York's defense has shown a lot of pride in recent weeks. St. Louis still has a lot of issues on the offensive side of the football. The Rams aren't very good there, and it's tough for them to sustain drives. The line movement has been toward the under here, and I think that line move is definitely justified. Look for a low scoring battle here.

The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 December games. The under is 5-0 in the Rams last 5 after gaining 90 yards rushing or less last game. The under is 22-5-1 in the Rams last 28 December games. A 32-5 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Miami Dolphins are struggling down the stretch. Miami has had a very difficult schedule through the middle to late portion of the season, and it seems that has worn the team down. Their last two outings have been really ugly. Minnesota is battling to the end with Coach Mike Zimmer firing up his team. The Vikings had a real shot to beat the Lions outright last week. Minnesota's defense is much improved this year thanks to Zimmer showing up, and I think Miami is going to have trouble moving the football on this group. Teddy Bridgewater has been getting better in recent weeks, and he goes home to put on a show in this game. Miami knows they won't make the playoffs, and I think they are far more likely to give up than the Vikings. 

The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 in December. A 13-0 angle. Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Baltimore Ravens badly need to win this game. They are in the thick of the playoff race in the stacked AFC North. Baltimore has a home game against a struggling Browns team next week, so if they can win this game, their chances of making the playoffs are extremely good. This is a proud franchise that has a lot of talent and balance on both sides of the football. Houston obviously has a good defense and a star in J.J. Watt, but the Texans offense is on their fourth quarterback now. The Ravens should get plenty of heat on Keenum and make it a long day for him. Baltimore has more to play for, and I expect a strong effort from the road team here. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Chargers defense is solid. They showed what they are made of in their loss to the Patriots last week. San Diego's defense wasn't the reason they lost that game. Rather, it was Phillip Rivers and the offense that couldn't get going. The San Diego offense has been really inconsistent of late, and Denver's defense is much improved from last year. I expect the Broncos pass rush to do a good job getting after Rivers in this one. Denver is dinged up offensively right now, and the Chargers have done a relatively good job against this Broncos offense in the past couple years. I expect a competitive game where touchdowns are tough to come by. This line is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Green Bay Packers come into this one on a really nice run. I think the Packers are a very good team, but I also believe this is a difficult spot for them. Buffalo's defense is far better than most realize. The Bills defense showed how good they are last week with their performance against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Buffalo has a great defensive front that can create pressure without sending the blitz all that often. The secondary is also very good. Green Bay's defense has struggled this year, but Buffalo's offense has become one-dimensional and that should make things easier on them. It is expected to be a bit breezy for this one with a bit of drizzle through the game. Weather can be a major factor in games played at Buffalo. I like the defenses to control this one.

The under is 4-0 in the Bills last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Bills last 5 overall. The under is 6-0 in the Bills last 6 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play of the Month* The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has been amazing this year. Before the season there were a lot of questions about this unit, but they have answered them emphatically thus far. Pittsburgh is averaging 427 yards per game so far this year, which easily outpaces the 391.1 per game that is the team record set back in 1979. The Steelers have scored 30 points or more in seven games this year. They are averaging 6.2 yards per play which is second best in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons offense is always tough to stop in the dome. Matt Ryan has elite receivers in Jones and White. Jones is listed as questionable this weekend, but even if he doesn't go, the Falcons have a very good third option in Harry Douglas.

Pittsburgh's defense has only 24 sacks this year. They are putting a lot of pressure on the secondary, and their secondary just isn't very good. Matt Ryan should be able to pick apart this group. At the same time, the Falcons defense isn't good at all against the run or the pass. Pittsburgh should move the ball at will. I think there will be a lot of offense in this one. Take the over big! 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The San Diego Chargers and New England Patriots meet in what should be a terrific game Sunday night. New England is coming off a loss, and the Patriots are really tough to beat following a loss. On the other hand, San Diego has played well in recent years as an underdog and they are coming off a momentum-building win at Baltimore. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense was just a bit off last week. Before last week, the Patriots had scored 34 points or more in four straight games. San Diego has been having some issues in the secondary in recent weeks, and that should be a problem here. The Chargers have some great pass catchers and Antonio Gates is a tough matchup for the Patriots. Look for San Diego to move the ball well through the air in this game. 

The over is 4-0 in the Patriots last 4 during week 14. The over is 5-0 in the Patriots last 5 after gaining less than 90 yards rushing last game. The over is 4-1 in the Patriots last 5 December games. A 13-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers have made a name for themselves in the past few years as strong defensive teams. That was the case for many years, but it isn't the case this year. Both of these defenses are way down this season. Pittsburgh's defense has gotten too old, and Brett Keisel is now out for the season, so they lose a guy who has been one of the most productive players on their roster. Cincinnati's defense has taken a big step back this year too. I think the primary reason for that is Mike Zimmer leaving and taking the head coaching job at Minnesota. Zimmer is a defensive mastermind, and the Bengals miss him badly. The number here is set too low because of the past history of these teams. Both offenses have big play ability. 

The over is 4-0 in the Bengals last 4 December games. The over is 6-0 in the Steelers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1 in the Steelers last 9 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. An 18-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Lions defense is still being underrated by many. This defense has proven week after week they are one of the very best in the NFL. Tampa Bay's defense has also proven on a consistent basis that they aren't any good. Tampa Bay put up only 13 points in each of their last two games, and that was against two subpar defenses. It gets much tougher here. I have been impressed with the fight in the Tampa Bay defense. This unit has gotten significantly better over the course of the season. I see a comfortable win for the Lions as their defense dominates.

The under is 6-0 in Tampa Bay's last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NFC. The under is 5-0 in Tampa Bay's last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after running for less than 90 yards last game. The under is 6-0 in the Lions last 6 after throwing for 250 yards or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the Lions last 4 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing last game. A 29-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Patriots/Packers Total DOMINATION* The New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers get together in what should be a tremendous game late Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers will be all the storylines, and you can't blame the media for headlining the game with those two. They are two of the very best at their position, and they are guys who usually rise to the occasion in games like this one. The New England offense has really impressed me in recent weeks. New England can do it through the air or on the ground. The offensive line is much improved too. Green Bay's defense is still a major question mark for me. The Packers offense was a little disappointing early this year, but they are firing on all cylinders now. Both of these teams play much at a much faster tempo than the league average, and that will lead to more possessions in this game. I see this as a back and forth type of game where both offenses have a bunch of big plays. 

The over is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 home games. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 on grass. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The over is 7-1 in the Packers last 8 overall. A 29-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Arizona Cardinals are still being doubted by a lot of people. Arizona is 9-2, but they are only favored here by 1.5 points against a Falcons team that is playing some bad football right now. Mike Smith cost this team a win last week, and I have to wonder how that sat in the locker room after last week's game. Atlanta hasn't won a game against anyone outside of the NFC South all year. The Falcons defense is one of the worst in the league. Arizona's defense stops the run really well, and this front seven is great at getting after the quarterback. Matt Ryan is good when he he has time to throw, but he isn't very elusive. I don't think he'll have time to sit back and survey the field very much in this one. Arizona's defense is very good. I like the Cardinals to take care of business after last week's loss.

The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a loss. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after gaining 250 yards or less in their previous game. They are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a defense ranking in the bottom five in the league in total defense. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on turf. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after gaining more than 250 passing yards last game. A 35-0 angle. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The weather should be a major factor in this game. The forecast calls for an early high temperature of 15 degrees dropping to nine degrees by the end of the game. Carolina certainly isn't used to that kind of temperature, and I think that hurts their offense more than the defense. The wind is also going to play a major role here. The wind is expected to be about 20 miles per hour throughout this one, which should make both offenses hesitant to throw it. With a lot of running, we'll see the clock consistently moving. The defenses should be able to key in on the run after a while here too. Minnesota's defense is one of the most improved in the league under the guidance of Mike Zimmer. Look for a low scoring affair. Take the under. 

*4 Star Seahawks/49ers Thanksgiving CASH* The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a great win at home over Arizona. I've never doubted Seattle at home, but on the road they aren't the same team. They couldn't find a way to win at Kansas City last month, and this time they'll be in San Francisco against their hated rivals from the Bay Area. Both of these teams come in with a 7-4 record, and they have both been really inconsistent this year. One thing I fully expect in this one though is the 49ers best effort. San Francisco really hates this Seattle team, and the 49ers feel like they deserved to win that NFC title game last year. Instead, it was the Seahawks who won and went on to win the Super Bowl. You better believe the 49ers have been waiting for a measure of revenge. Seattle's defense isn't as dominant as it used to be, while this 49ers defense is excellent all the way around. Seattle's offensive line has some major issues right now, and the 49ers should expose those problems.

The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two teams. San Francisco is in a great spot here, and I think they win. Since it should be a close and low scoring game, I'm taking them on the moneyline at an affordable price. Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Tampa Bay Bucs and Chicago Bears meet at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon. The conditions are going to be ugly for this one. There is a 100 percent chance of rain according to current forecasts, and the wind is expected to be 20 mph blowing off of Lake Michigan. Anyone who has been to Chicago knows that the winds can be very tough to deal with here. Both of these teams have been relying more on their passing attacks lately, but I don't expect those to work well in this weather. The field will be a total mess as well with heavy rain throughout. Neither of these offenses has proven to be all that good to start with, and with an ugly field and a heavy wind it will make it much tougher to score. 

The under is 4-0 in the Bucs last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games played on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 in November. A 16-0 angle. 

Look for a sloppy low scoring game. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles will meet late Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. The temperature will slide below 20 degrees as this game moves along. The tendency for the public is to think that cold weather means the game will finish under the posted total, but that hasn't proven true in the past ten years. Since 2004, 65 percent of games played at a temperature of 20 degrees or lower have finished over the posted total. Philadelphia plays with a very quick tempo and they'll get off a bunch of snaps. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense are now in full stride, and the Eagles secondary is still very vulnerable. Mark Sanchez is a nice fit in the Chip Kelly system and McCoy should have a good game here. I love both of these offenses and neither defense impresses me. 

The over is 4-0 in the Eagles last 4 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games following a Monday nighter. The over is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 following a win. The over is 7-0 in the Packers last 7 following a win by 14 points or more. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Value Play* The Chicago Bears in a lot of trouble right now. Everyone keeps waiting on them to turn things around, and it just doesn't happen. Minnesota comes into this one well rested and healthy after having a bye week last weekend. Chicago was beat up by Green Bay at Lambeau on Sunday night. The Bears have chemistry problems and they still have a horrific defense. Teddy Bridgewater has impressed me thus far, and he should be able to make enough plays for the Vikings offense here. Minnesota did a great job hiring Mike Zimmer, and Zimmer is a terrific defensive mind. This Vikings defense will have plenty of wrinkles ready for Jay Cutler and the Bears offense. Look for them to force some turnovers. The Vikings have a good chance to win outright, so I'll grab the points. Take Minnesota. 

*3 NFL ATS Play of Week* The Kansas City Chiefs may be the most overlooked 6-3 team the NFL has seen in the past several years. It seems like the public just likes to assume that Kansas City is doing it with smoke and mirrors and they'll come back down to earth, but they continue to press on winning games. The public is backing Seattle in this one, but the line has moved significantly toward the Chiefs. That tells me this is a sharp money move, and I like backing a play like that. This is a great spot for Kansas City to prove they are for real. This is a really tough place to play for visitors, and the crowd will be rocking on Sunday afternoon. Seattle has covered on the road only once this year. The Seahawks defense hasn't been as dominant this year, while the Chiefs defense is playing great. Alex Smith takes care of the ball and helps his team win. This is a great chance for the Chiefs to make a statement. Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Cardinals have outperformed expectations all season. I get the feeling that the oddsmakers still haven't caught up to how good this team truly is. Carson Palmer is playing much better this year, and for the most part he has taken care of the ball. Arizona has a bunch of play makers on the outside that will be difficult for the Rams secondary to slow down. The Rams are coming off a win at San Francisco, but the Rams were awfully fortunate to win that game. St. Louis did very little offensively in that game, and I don't trust young Austin Davis against this very good Arizona defense. The Cardinals are aggressive defensively, and they should force some Rams turnovers in this contest. Arizona continues to make a statement to the rest of the league.

Arizona is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a NFC foe. The Rams are 0-4 ATS following an ATS win. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team allowing 5.65 yards per play or more. A 21-0 angle. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Buffalo Bills had a bye week last week. The defense has gotten healthier and they should be ready for a strong effort. Buffalo is eighth in the NFL in total defense, and I consider this Bills defense one of the most underrated units in the NFL. On offense, Buffalo is totally one-dimensional now without Spiller or Jackson in the backfield. Kyle Orton isn't a bad quarterback, but he's certainly not a special one either. The Chiefs have the number one ranked pass defense in the NFL, and Kansas City is going to be ready for the throw here. The Chiefs offense is far from spectacular, and they just do what they have to do to squeak out wins. Kansas City will run the ball a lot here, which keeps the clock moving. Buffalo's defensive front is very strong. These defenses are both excellent. Last year's game finished at 36, and another game in the high 30's is what I see here.

The under is 4-0 in the Chiefs last 4 games. The under is 6-1 in the Chiefs last 7 November games. The under is 4-1 in the Bills last 5 home games. The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Miami Dolphins are definitely coming off an impressive win last weekend against San Diego, but I believe the oddsmakers have put a little too much stock in that win. San Diego was in a really bad situational spot there. Miami really put it to San Diego, but now they go on the road to face a terrific Lions defense. Detroit's front four are pressuring the quarterback really well this year, and Tannehill hasn't shown to be a quality player when under pressure throughout the game. Also important to note is Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush are expected back in the lineup for the Lions. It's obvious that these two make the Lions a much much better offense. I'm not sure the Dolphins secondary has anyone who can handle Johnson. Stafford has been playing well of late, and the Lions come into this one well rested. This is a short price on a pretty impressive Detroit team that has finally gotten healthy. Take Detroit here. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers offense that was a mess when these two teams met earlier this year is now firing on all cylinders. Big Ben and his solid group of wide receivers will make plenty of plays in this one. The Steelers running game has been better than expected this year as well. Joe Flacco is playing some terrific football of late, and the Ravens offense is playing at a different pace now than they have in the past. Baltimore ranks sixth in the NFL in tempo, so they are getting off a lot of snaps. I see value in this number because of the past history of these teams. When you think of Steelers vs. Ravens you think defense and lots of hard hits. These defenses aren't what they used to be, and both of the offenses are better. The winner of this game is going to have to put up a solid amount of points. 

The over is 4-0 in the Ravens last 4 games on grass. The over is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 13-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Moneyline CASH* The Houston Texans offense hasn't impressed me this year. Philadelphia took a while to get going offensively, but they are playing well on that side of the ball right now. Nick Foles is forcing a few too many throws, but outside of turnovers the Eagles have moved it really well of late. Philadelphia really outplayed Arizona on the road last week and rolled up more than 500 yards of offense on a good Cardinals defense. Philadelphia's defense isn't particularly good, but they have been opportunistic. The Eagles also have a big advantage when it comes to special teams. The return of Darren Sproles in this game helps Philadelphia in a big way. Take the Eagles on the moneyline. 

*3 Star NFL Cardinals/Cowboys CASH* The Dallas Cowboys aren't as good as their record would indicate. This defense still isn't any good. Their yards per play allowed is very similar to last year. Justin Durant being out is a huge hit to this defense too. The Arizona offense has lots of weapons and I've been impressed with Carson Palmer so far this year. He is spreading the ball around nicely. The Cowboys secondary will have trouble slowing this passing attack down. On offense, Dallas either has a banged up Tony Romo or Brandon Weeden. The Cardinals love to blitz, and based on the Redskins success blitzing, I think they'll get to the quarterback a few times on Sunday. Either Romo or Weeden is going to be in a difficult spot here. Arizona is the real deal, and I think they'll show the world that on Sunday. 

Dallas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 during week nine. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The Dallas Cowboys are clearly a good team, but they aren't as good as their record would indicate. They also aren't as good as this line would indicate. The Cowboys defense that has supposedly improved so drastically since last year is giving up almost exactly the same yards per play that they were last season. Washington has lost five games this year, but they have been outgained in only two games. The Redskins aren't a good team, but they aren't quite as bad as their record. RG3 might play in this one, but I'm counting on Colt McCoy to get most of the time here. I don't think McCoy is a long-term answer, but he should do fine against this poor Cowboys defense. Washington is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Dallas. The underdog is a whopping 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings. This is a big rivalry game. Too many points. Take the underdog. Take Washington. 

*5 Star TOP NFL Play of the Month* The Green Bay Packers are a good team, but they haven't played like an elite team this year. Green Bay is 5-2 on the year, but they have won a lot of close games. They have a turnover margin of +10, so they are relying heavily on turnovers to win these games. That kind of statistic can't continue all year long. I've been disappointed with the Saints performance so far this year, but all four of their losses have come on the road. In 3 of those losses, they were ahead late and basically gave the game away. The Saints season isn't a total failure yet, but they absolutely have to win this game. New Orleans has been absolute money at home under Drew Brees and Sean Payton. The Saints are 17-1-1 ATS in their last 19 home games with Payton and Brees both active. The Saints aren't nearly as bad as their record, and this line is an extremely good value. Take New Orleans big! 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Cardinals secondary ranks second to last in the NFL in pass defense so far this year. With the offensive line starting to play better (and get healthy) Nick Foles' production should continue to improve in the passing game for Philadelphia. McCoy is too good of a runner to be completely shut down in the long run. The Eagles defense has been opportunistic, and they have created a bunch of scores on that side of the ball. Philadelphia's defense still isn't very good overall though, and the Eagles will have trouble slowing down this Arizona offense. The Eagles don't have the secondary to stop Carson Palmer and the Cardinals talented wide receivers. Both teams score plenty in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL EARLY Bird Special* This one is being played at 9:30 AM Eastern, so make sure you are ready for the early start. Atlanta just isn't a good team away from home. This game is being played in London, which obviously means Atlanta doesn't have the home field advantage in the Dome. Detroit is gaining momentum and they are becoming a confident bunch. The Lions defensive line is arguably the best in the NFL, and that's a major problem for Atlanta here. The Falcons have injuries all across their offensive line. Matt Ryan is playing behind a patchwork line, and Ryan isn't the type of quarterback to be able to keep plays alive with his feet. Detroit's defensive line is going to be in the backfield a bunch in this game. The Lions should have Reggie Bush, and Calvin Johnson is a game time decision. Atlanta's defense is one of the worst in the league and I expect the Lions to be able to move the ball consistently. Detroit keeps the momentum going and Atlanta struggles yet again. 

The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 during October. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 overall. Atlanta is also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 away from home during the first half of the season. A 15-0 angle. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star NFL Giants/Cowboys CASH* The Dallas Cowboys are certainly a much improved team, but this line is a major overreaction. The Cowboys win over Seattle has caused a major adjustment and now the public is driving up this price way too fast. New York and Dallas have a major rivalry and the road team has done extremely well in the last few years when these two meet. Though Dallas won both meetings last year, the Giants actually outgained the Cowboys in each of those games. Keep in mind, this is still the same Cowboys team that needed overtime to beat the Texans at home earlier this month. The Giants were thumped last week so perception is low on them, but had been playing well before that and I expect Tom Couglin to prepare them well for this key NFC East game. Take advantage of this overreaction and grab the points with the underdog. Take the Giants. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Indianapolis Colts continue to play better than oddsmakers expect. The Colts looked like a team with a lot of holes in the first couple games of the season, but I've been impressed by the improvement from this team in recent weeks. Andrew Luck is obviously a superstar at the quarterback position, but the players around him on offense are getting better. This offensive line is young, and early in the year they looked like a major problem spot, in the past couple weeks they have been solid. The Colts defense isn't a shutdown type unit, but they are opportunistic. Cincinnati's offense is good, but they aren't even close to as good now that they don't have A.J. Green or Marvin Jones on the outside here. Look for the Colts to key in on the running game of Cincinnati in this one. 

The Colts are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games with a total of 45-50 points. They are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games at home vs. a team averaging 24 yards or more per kick return. The Colts are 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. A 28-0 angle. Take Indianapolis. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bears have a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They covered them up well last week in Atlanta, but I don't think they'll be able to keep the Dolphins down that well. The Bears offense is rolling right now. Jay Cutler is finally getting comfortable in this offense, and his wideouts will have some major height advantages on the Dolphins smaller corners. It might also surprise you to learn that the team who is playing second fastest from a tempo perspective so far this year is the Miami Dolphins (behind only the Eagles with Chip Kelly's fast paced attack). I expected this total to be around 52 points, and finding four points of value in the NFL is difficult. Take the over. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line is starting to get healthier, and that should help this offense. Chip Kelly's offense is innovative and it has shown to be very good in the past, but this year the Eagles haven't gotten it going yet. Look for Nick Foles and the Philly receivers to get in sync this week. McCoy has been a big disappointment in the backfield, but he has a good past against the Giants defense. Eli Manning has been playing some really good football of late. Manning is getting rid of the football far quicker than he has in the past, and that's working in a big way. This looks like a back and forth high scoring game all the way. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons meet in the Georgia Dome on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams come in with lots of offensive weapons and a quarterback who can sling it around. The two defenses have some major problems in the secondary. Chicago is banged up badly in the secondary, and Matt Ryan is amazing at home. The Falcons receivers are as good as anyone in the league. The Falcons don't have a good pass rush, and without a strong pass rush, Jay Cutler is likely to pick apart this Atlanta secondary. This is a game where I expect a lot of big play touchdowns, so both teams should get the ball a lot of times here. 

The over is 6-0 in the Bears last 6 vs. the NFC. The over is 5-0 in Chicago's last 5 after gaining 250 passing yards or more last game. The over is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 after running for 90 yards or less. The over is 5-0 in Atlanta's last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The over is 4-0 in the Falcons last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 6-0 in Atlanta's last 6 as a home favorite. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Cowboys/Seahawks MONEYMaker* The Dallas Cowboys are 3-1 and they have played solid football this year. I won't take anything away from the Cowboys, but I don't think they are in the same class as the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is the champion until someone beats them, and they haven't disappointed so far this year. The Seahawks are amazing at home, and this will be a raucous environment on Sunday afternoon. Tony Romo is still a turnover machine, and the Cowboys are unlikely to be able to run consistently against this Seahawks front seven. Seattle's offense is better this year behind an improved Russell Wilson and a healthy Percy Harvin. The Cowboys defense may be a bit better than last year, but they aren't as good as they have looked thus far. I expect them to get gashed in this one. 

Seattle is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 250 yards or more through the air. Seattle is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team that is averaging 7 yards or more passing yards per attempt. A 23-1 angle. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers both like to get off a lot of snaps. There should be plenty of no huddle offense and scoring opportunities in this game. Green Bay's defense has really disappointed this year, and I think they can make just about any quarterback look good. The Dolphins have an impressive running game. Green Bay's offense wasn't too good in the first couple weeks, but Aaron Rodgers has gotten it going of late. Rodgers should be able to carve up a mediocre Dolphins secondary. The Green Bay offense is much more impressive now that it has balance with Lacy in the run game. Plenty of points here. Take the over. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Play of the Month* The New England Patriots have been up and down this year. The Patriots were blown out on the road by both Miami and Kansas City though, and that's something that bettors need to keep in mind. Buffalo is a better team with Kyle Orton at quarterback because he is far more consistent than Manuel. The Bills are tremendous in the trenches on both sides of the ball as well, and that's where they hold a major edge against the Patriots. The Bills defensive line is one of the top five in the NFL, and I expect them to give the Patriots offensive line fits. Buffalo's running game is terrific, and the Patriots have been torched on the ground in their road games this year. The public is rushing to back New England here because they looked great in their home game against the Bengals on Sunday Night Football. The line has moved toward the Bills side even though the public is almost 90% backing the Patriots. This is a sharp line move. I'll gladly fade the public here. I think the Bills win outright. Take Buffalo big! 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Baltimore Ravens aren't getting the respect they deserve from the oddsmakers. Baltimore lost to a very good Bengals team in week one, and they have won all three games since. Their win over Carolina last weekend was really impressive, and Steve Smith's contributions in this offense are making the team far more dangerous. The Baltimore defense is fast and they rally to the football well. The Ravens don't have any real apparent weakness on either side of the ball. Andrew Luck is amazing, but the offensive line in front of him is awful. The Ravens should get pressure on Luck a lot in this game. The Colts secondary has been beatable, and I like the way Flacco is playing right now. Given more than a field goal, I'm taking the Ravens in a game where I think they could pull the outright upset. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Oddsmaker ERROR* It may seem a bit odd to call a favorite at -10 in the NFL a strong value play, but I think the Saints are precisely that in this game. New Orleans sits at 1-3, and they absolutely need to go on a big run now to be any part of the playoff conversation. The Bucs have looked listless for much of the year, but they are coming off a surprise win at Pittsburgh. Don't let that win fool you, this team still isn't good. The Saints have made a bit out of covering at home under Sean Payton, and I see no reason for this trend to stop working on Sunday. Drew Brees has tons of weapons, and he'll carve up this Tampa Bay defense. The Saints defense was great against Tampa Bay last year, and they should handle them again. Look for the favorite to roll here.

The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Saints are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 home games following a loss. The Bucs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NFC. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NFC South games. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 350 yards or more. A 31-1 angle. Take New Orleans. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Jacksonville Jaguars defense wasn't a huge problem last year, but this year they are arguably the worst in the league. Ben Roethlisberger is playing well in this new Steelers offense, and they are getting a good running game this year as well. Jacksonville hasn't been slowing anyone down, and I don't think they'll slow the Steelers either. Blake Bortles is clearly a big upgrade for the Jaguars at the quarterback spot. Bortles is throwing it well and moving this team up and down the field. This Pittsburgh defense is far weaker than they were a few seasons ago. Both teams should get plenty of scoring chances in this game.

The over is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 after allowing 90 rushing yards or less. The over is 7-0 in the Steelers last 7 games vs. a team averaging less than 75 yards per game on the ground. The over is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in the Jags last 4. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing more than 250 passing yards last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a SU loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss by 14 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 in Week Five. A 42-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Dallas Cowboys defense has looked slightly better than expected so far this year, but I believe that might be largely because of the teams they have played against. The 49ers offense has struggled this year, and the Titans and Rams offenses aren't very good. New Orleans' offense is definitely one of the best in the league, and the Saints are going to test the Cowboys in a big way. I don't think the Dallas defense will be able to hold their own against this group. New Orleans puts up a big number. The Cowboys have some great balance on offense right now, and the Saints defense has looked shaky. I see a back and forth affair with both offenses lighting up the scoreboard. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* Teddy Bridgewater is the new starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings after the injury to Matt Cassel. Bridgewater should end up being a good quarterback, but I think the Vikings need to keep the playbook pretty vanilla for him early in his career. The Vikings aren't nearly as good of a team without their main star in Adrian Peterson and now opposing teams can really get after the quarterback without the big running threat in Minnesota. Minnesota's defense is improving fast with Mike Zimmer in as the team's new coach. Zimmer is a mastermind on the defensive side of the ball, and I love the way he has this team playing. They did very well last week against a Saints offense that is fantastic. This game will be played outdoors, which limits Matt Ryan's effectiveness. 

The under is 7-1 in the Falcons last 8 games after scoring 30 points or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 15-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been awful this year. San Diego's offense is likely to have a field day here. Phillip Rivers is really playing well right now, and the Chargers have a plethora of weapons for Rivers to get the ball to on the outside. Blake Bortles came in and helped the Jaguars offense get moving last week. San Diego's defense isn't bad, but they aren't an elite unit. I expect Bortles to help the Jaguars offense quite a bit right away. Both teams should have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in the end zone here. A very reasonable number here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills are both teams that are led by their strong defenses. Buffalo used to have a weak defense, but they have corrected that problem. It starts with a tremendous defensive line led by Mario Williams and Marcell Dareus. All three of the Bills games so far this year have stayed under the total, and that includes their season opener with Chicago that went into overtime. The Texans defense is strong as well. Houston is without Clowney, but they still have Watt, Cushing, and a secondary full of very good players. Both offenses have question marks at the quarterback spot and they struggle to put together long drives. I like the defenses to have the upper hand in this one.

The under is 4-0 in the Bills last 4 September games. The under is 4-0 in the Texans last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in the Texans last 4 following an ATS defeat. A 12-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Baltimore Ravens are a really tough team to beat on their home field. Baltimore started the season with a tough loss at home against Cincinnati, but the Bengals look as good as anyone in the NFL so far this year. They bounced back with wins over the Steelers and Browns the last two weeks. Joe Flacco is gaining confidence in the team's new offensive system, and I like the look of this offensive line. Steve Smith was a huge pickup for the Ravens as he gives the team a go to guy on the outside. Carolina is a team I'm low on this year. The Panthers defense isn't quite as good as last year, and Cam Newton doesn't have enough play makers surrounding him. The Ravens defense is very good, and they'll pressure Newton a lot in this one. The Ravens take care of business at home. Take Baltimore. 

*4 Star NFL Super Bowl Rematch 100% CASH* The Seattle Seahawks dominated the Denver Broncos in last year's Super Bowl. It made that game one of the most boring Super Bowls I've ever seen. The Seahawks defense was totally dominant and Peyton Manning never got going. Seattle's defense is very similar this year, and the Broncos now have to contend with the 12th man in Seattle. I've never seen a better home field advantage in the NFL. The Seahawks now have a healthy Percy Harvin on offense too, and that's worth a lot. Denver's defense is good at rushing the passer, but outside of that I'm not impressed with their defense. The revenge factor has a lot of people taking the Broncos, but Seattle's home field is probably worth at least 5 points. Do you really think the Broncos should be favored on a neutral field after what you saw last year? I don't. 

Seattle is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 during week 3. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of a touchdown or less. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on turf. A 20-0 angle. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Kansas City Chiefs offense can't seem to get on track. They haven't faced an elite defense this year, but they still have had trouble moving the ball. Jamaal Charles may play here, but he is certainly less than 100 percent with a high ankle sprain. The Dolphins defense has been great this year. Even last week when the team allowed quite a few points against Buffalo, those points were largely scored because of offensive turnovers or special teams plays. The defense was very good. I see the Chiefs defense as a solid unit, especially in the front seven. I'm not sure the Dolphins have the type of team to air it out all game long. I see lots of running in this one, which means a clock that keeps on ticking. 

The under is 6-0 in the Chiefs last 6 September games. The under is 4-0-1 in the Dolphins last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 after gaining 90 yards or less on the ground. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Cardinals will start Drew Stanton in this game. That should mean a more vanilla offense for the Cardinals this weekend. More running the football and safe short passes are in store. The 49ers haven't played well so far this year, but it hasn't been the defense that has been disappointing. In fact, the defense has played very well in both games. Colin Kaepernick is struggling badly, and I don't see him turning it around against a very good Cardinals defense. This Arizona front seven is tremendous, and they have ball hawks like Patrick Peterson and Tyronn Mathieu in the secondary. I think the defenses dominate throughout this game. 

The under is 4-0 in the 49ers last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Cards last 4 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards. The under is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 September games. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New Orleans Saints are 0-2, but don't let that fool you. The Saints are a very good football team. I still think this is a Saints team that has a real shot to be a Super Bowl contender. Obviously being 0-2 makes things a lot more difficult, but the Saints still have 8 games left at home, and everyone knows how good this team is at home. The Minnesota Vikings are a team that I think will move in the right direction in the long run with Zimmer as head coach. In the present though, Minnesota has some major issues without Peterson in the backfield. The Vikings defense is improving, but they aren't good enough to slow down the Saints in the Superdome. I don't see Minnesota's one-dimensional offense being able to keep up. The Saints bounce back in a big way here. Take New Orleans. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Oddsmaker ERROR* Why can't the oddsmakers see how good the Cincinnati Bengals are? Cincinnati is taking care of business at home on a consistent basis, and they even came up with a big road win at Baltimore in the season opener this year. Andy Dalton seems to be much more comfortable in Hue Jackson's offense, and that's a huge deal since Dalton has been the guy holding this offense back. There are tons of weapons around him and A.J. Green is a total beast at wide receiver. The Titans looked good in week one, but that was against a Chiefs team that is way down this year. They laid an egg last week at home against Dallas. Jake Locker will have to face a much better defense than he has faced all year in this one, and I don't think it will go well for him. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 September games. The Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. A 17-1 angle. Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star NFL Lions/Packers Totals CASH* The Detroit Lions have some real issues in the secondary. You better believe Aaron Rodgers is going to spot those weaknesses and take advantage of them on a consistent basis in this one. The Green Bay defense has plenty of problems of their own, and Matt Stafford looks very comfortable in the Lions new offense. Detroit is a really dangerous offense on their home turf. It's hard to imagine either team falling short of the upper 20's in this game. It will be a long day for these defenses. Take the over in this NFC clash.

*3 Star NFL Total Value* The Philadelphia Eagles are going to get their points. Chip Kelly's offense is ultra dynamic with McCoy in the backfield and Foles airing it out. The Redskins defense may be a bit better this year, but they haven't faced a good offense yet. They will in this one, and they'll give up a lot of points. Washington's offense has been running great with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and at least for now he seems like the better option at QB. The Redskins have a good running game and lots of weapons on the outside. This Eagles defense showed their weaknesses in a big way last Monday night in Indianapolis. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Houston Texans offense is going to need some work. Houston's offensive line isn't all that good right now, and the passing game will likely struggle for a while with Fitzpatrick at quarterback. On the other hand, the Texans have a dominating defense that should be shutting down most opponents this year. Oakland's offense is a mess right now, and Derek Carr is in for a rough game here against a very good pass rush and a very good secondary. Oakland's defense is better than most believe, and the Raiders should do a good job keeping everything in front of them here. I believe this will be a field goal kicking contest. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Green Bay Packers have had ten days to think about their disappointing loss in week one against Seattle. Even though the Packers were dominated in that game, we do need to keep in mind that Seattle is going to dominate a bunch of people on their home field. Green Bay should be just fine. Aaron Rodgers has more weapons than he has had in the past. Eddie Lacy will play in this one, and his emergence really changes things for the Packers offense. Green Bay is in a great spot for a bounce back here. New York's defense isn't as good as it was a couple years ago, and the Jets offense doesn't have enough firepower to keep up with Rodgers and company. The extra time to prepare and the need to get that first win propel a large victory here for Green Bay.

The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games Aaron Rodgers starts after the team lost last game. They are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 following a loss where their opponent is also coming off a win. A 13-0 angle. Take Green Bay. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Cincinnati Bengals have been a great home team in the last couple years. Andy Dalton still has to prove himself as a quarterback, but he definitely has the weapons around him to succeed. A.J. Green is a beast and the Bengals offensive line is underrated. Cincinnati's defense is probably top five in the NFL. Atlanta is coming off a nice come from behind victory at home over New Orleans, but the Bengals picked up a road win in Baltimore. The Falcons haven't been nearly as good on the road in the past, and Atlanta doesn't have the kind of defense that Cincinnati has. I like the well-balanced Bengals in their home opener to take care of business here.

The Bengals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 during week two. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record. A 17-1 angle. Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER ATS Play* The Baltimore Ravens have been in the news for all the wrong reasons of late. That makes some people want to play against them. In fact, more than 60 percent of the betting public is backing the Steelers here. I think that's the wrong way to look at this game. Pittsburgh had a home game against a weak Browns team in week one. The Steelers survived thanks to a field goal as time expired. Baltimore lost at home in a tough battle against Cincinnati, but the Bengals are a very good team. Cincinnati has a lot more talent than does Pittsburgh. The Ravens are now up against a wall. Baltimore is either going to bounce back and go 1-1 or fall to 0-2 and see their season going downhill in a big way before it even gets going. This is a team that won the Super Bowl the year before last. They have a bunch of talent and a bunch of pride. Look for them to show up ready to go here. The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 September games. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Line Mover MONEY* The line here has been steamed toward the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for good reason. Lovie Smith is a huge coaching upgrade over anyone Tampa Bay has had since Jon Gruden. Carolina had an amazing year last year, but there are lots of signs that point to a move backward for the Panthers in the season ahead. Steve Smith was a big loss for Cam Newton. Newton still has to prove he is an efficient passer in the NFL, and without his top target it will be much more difficult. Newton is considered a gametime decision for this one due to his rib injury. Newton will likely play here, but he won't be 100%, and he won't run as much as normal. That allows Tampa Bay's defense to get much more aggressive against this Panthers offense. Tampa Bay's move to Josh McCown in the offseason was a wise one, and I think the Bucs offense will be better than most believe. The sharp money is on the Tampa Bay Bucs. Take Tampa Bay here. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Buffalo Bills offense looked bad in the preseason, and that's the only reason this number is set so low. Remember, the Bears defense was absolutely awful last year, and they didn't do much to change that in the offseason. The Bears are going to give up a lot of points this year and make mediocre offenses look good. I think that will happen in this game. On the other hand, Chicago's offense looks set for a big season. Jay Cutler has weapons all over the place at his disposal, and Marc Trestman's system worked well last year. The offense should be that much better in a second year in the same system. Buffalo's cornerbacks are going to have a hard time shutting down Marshall and Jeffery. Expect plenty of points in this contest.

The over is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games played on grass. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games played in September. A 13-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The St. Louis Rams were favored by about six points before Sam Bradford went down. The line movement here is an overreaction. While I hate that Bradford went down because I was rooting for him to have a better season this year, it has to be said that Bradford hasn't done anything special for the Rams. Shaun Hill isn't a large downgrade from Bradford at all. Jeff Fisher is one of the best coaches in the NFL at getting the most out of his talent. The Rams have a scrappy defense that is usually very good against the run. Minnesota's passing game is highly suspect, and the Rams should do a decent job of slowing down Peterson. Minnesota will likely move in the right direction in the long run under new coach Mike Zimmer, but in game one I can't expect a lot. This is still a Vikings team that has a poor defense and a poor passing game. The Rams are the better team overall, and at home only laying a field goal we are getting a good value on them. Take St. Louis.