Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Bucs meet in a game that I expect to be a back and forth high scoring contest. Oakland's defense ranks dead last in yards per play allowed at 6.7. Tampa Bay's defense ranks 17th at 5.6 yards per play allowed. 

It is important to note that both of these teams like to throw it around. Oakland is passing on 61.31% of their plays so far this year. Tampa Bay is throwing it on 58.92% of their plays. Both secondaries have some major problems. Oakland is allowing a league worst 12.74 yards per completion. Tampa Bay is 4th worst in the NFL at 12.65.

Both Carr and Winston are fully capable of completing the long pass, and they both have a lot of weapons on the outside. I see both teams having some big gainers through the air in this game. 

Tampa Bay ranks near the top of the NFL in pace of play, which is a big bonus as well. Weather shouldn't be a factor here.

The over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Red HOT CASH* The Carolina Panthers come off a bye week and try to get their season turned around here. They have a long way to go, but I have to think the Panthers are going to play better the rest of the way. 

While the Arizona defense is definitely good, they could be a little worn down because of a multitude of injuries and having to play an overtime game (five full quarters) late last Sunday night. The Panthers have the weapons on the outside to break some big plays in the passing game.

Carson Palmer has always thrown a good deep ball in his career until this season. He'll get more chances to air it out deep here though, and I think he'll connect on some of them. Carolina is allowing opponents 12.72 yards per pass (only Cleveland and Oakland have been worse). The Panthers secondary is the single biggest reason they are 1-5 right now.

The bets are about 50/50 on this one, but the money is 79% on the over. That indicates sharp action on the over. With no weather issues here, I'll take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New Orleans Saints defense is still terrible. The Saints are allowing 6.1 yards per play on the year. Seattle's offense has struggled to get going at times this year, but they should get things rolling just fine against this Saints defense. Seattle did put up 26 against Atlanta, 27 against the Jets, and 37 against the 49ers. 

New Orleans' offense is still very good. Drew Brees is excellent at finding open spots in the coverage. He'll go against a good Seahawks secondary here, but I think Seattle's aggressive nature could lead them to get beaten deep some by the Saints in this one. 

New Orleans plays at the 4th fastest tempo of any team in the NFL. The Saints have a way of making every game high scoring, especially when they are on the fast turf of the Superdome. 

Seattle's offensive woes of late led to this total being this low, but it just creates value when the number is this low on a game involving the Saints.

The over is 8-0-1 in the Saints last 9 home games. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco 49ers continue to push the tempo under Chip Kelly. The 49ers are playing at what is easily the fastest tempo in the NFL. Colin Kaepernick is likely a better long term fit in the offense than Blaine Gabbert. Look for him to run the football occasionally, and be able to keep some plays alive in the passing game because of his ability to scramble around. 

Jameis Winston has been up and down this year. The 49ers defense is definitely one of the worst in the NFL, and I see this as a great chance for Winston to have a big game. Tampa Bay has also preferred to play at a quick pace so far this year. They should be happy to get into a high scoring affair. The injury to Navarro Bowman makes the 49ers defense much weaker than it was before, and it wasn't good even with him.

Four of the 49ers first six games went over this total and three of the Bucs first five have gone over this total.

Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 13.57 yards per pass completion this year (worst in the NFL). I'll look for some big plays on offense from the 49ers. San Francisco is giving up 11.34 yards per pass on the year. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Chargers* The Atlanta Falcons have been through a really tough period on their schedule of late. Atlanta played at New Orleans, home against Carolina, at Denver, and finally at Seattle last weekend. Last week's loss had to be deflating to them as well. Atlanta probably should have won that game. 

Now, Atlanta comes home to play the San Diego Chargers, who are 2-4 on the year. This is definitely a sandwich spot game. Next week, Atlanta has a big game against Green Bay. 

San Diego has been playing everyone tough so far this year. They have four losses, but none of them have been by more than 6 points. The Chargers also had extra rest here since they played last Thursday. That's a big positive for a team that has been badly banged up. 

I think Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense can keep pace with Atlanta and make this one a game that goes down to the wire. With Phillip Rivers at quarterback, the Chargers are 14-4 ATS when they are 6.5 point or larger underdogs. 

Take San Diego. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* I'm not going to overthink this one. The Eagles were never as good as they looked in the first couple weeks. Philadelphia was completely dominated by Washington last week. The score was close, but look at the box score and you'll see how that game really went. The Eagles had only 12 first downs compared to 26 for Washington. The Redskins rolled up nearly 500 yards of offense in that game.

Minnesota has been tremendous all year, and they are coming off a bye week. Minnesota has a tremendous coach in Mike Zimmer, and with him leading the way I feel confident they will be ready to play with two weeks of preparation. 

The weather could play a role in this game. Heavy winds throughout will make running the football important, and the Vikings rushing defense is excellent. I expect the Vikings defensive line to dominate the Eagles offensive front, especially since the Eagles are without Lane Johnson (suspended). Washington's defensive line dominated the Eagles O-Line last weekend, and Minnesota's defensive line is one of the best in the NFL.

The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in the month of October. They are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. A 19-0 angle. Take Minnesota. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks defense is still a force to be reckoned with, and they are well-rested and healthy right now. This Seattle team has a lot of pride, and they have definitely heard all about how great the Falcons passing attack is all week long. 

Atlanta's passing attack has been tremendous this year. They lead the league by a wide margin in passing yards per play, but I see them struggling with two things this week. First, I think they will have a tough time with the Seahawks secondary, which is obviously very strong. Secondly, the weather will hurt them here. Steady rain and winds of 20 mph through the game will make it much harder than normal for Matt Ryan to throw the deep ball.

Seattle prefers to play at a slow tempo and win a lower scoring game. I like Seattle's chances to win this game, and I think they'll get the type of game they want in this contest. The windy rainy weather helps Seattle, and I don't see the Falcons being able to move the ball nearly as consistently as they normally would. 

The public is playing the over here, but the sharp money has taken a big position on the under. I agree with that, and I'm on the under here as well. 

The under is 23-9-1 in the Falcons last 33 games. The under is 7-3 in Seattle's last 10. Take the under. 

*5 Star NFL Game of the MONTH* The Oakland Raiders are 4-1, but they haven't proven to me that they are a good team. Oakland has a bunch of flaws. The Raiders defense, which many expected to be better, is allowing a whopping 7.0 yards per play. That is worst in the NFL by half a yard. That tells me that despite not being put in bad positions (short fields) the Raiders defense is letting the opposition do whatever they want. 

The Kansas City Chiefs haven't played well so far this year. Expectations were really high for them coming into the season. Andy Reid has been amazing at getting his team ready after a bye week. Reid's teams are 15-2 straight up in this situation, which is what matters to us, taking the moneyline in this game. 

Jamaal Charles is expected to get a heavier workload here, and that should be important with rain and 15-20 mph winds expected during this game. The Oakland Raiders rely heavily on David Carr and his arm, so I believe the weather gives us another advantage with Kansas City. 

Latavius Murray isn't expected to play for Oakland here. The Raiders have been terrible at home in the last few years, and they have been fortunate to win at least two of their games so far this year. 

Look for Kansas City to come to Oakland ready to play. The Chiefs better ground game and their preparation off a bye are the big keys in this game where weather will play a role. 

Take Kansas City on the moneyline. NFL Game of the MONTH

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers get together in a game that has all the makings of a shootout. This one is played on the fast track at the Superdome, which is a definite positive for the over. Last year, when these two played at the Superdome, the final was Carolina 41 and New Orleans 38. 

Cam Newton has been cleared to play for the Panthers here. Newton has gotten off to a slow start this year, but if there was ever a good spot to bounce back, this is it. The Saints defense is arguably the worst in the NFL, and this secondary gives up big plays constantly.

The Panthers defensive dropoff from last year to this year has been amazing. Carolina is giving up 12.44 yards per pass on the year. Only Oakland and Tampa Bay have been worse in that area. Drew Brees is still more than capable of torching a secondary, and I see him making a lot of big plays in this game.

Big play potential on both sides and no bad weather conditions to deal with. The over is 7-0-1 in the Saints last 8 home games. The over is 6-0 in the Saints last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. A 13-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers meet in Oakland on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams have quarterbacks fully capable of slinging it around and I see a lot of reasons to believe they will both have big games on Sunday.

Phillip Rivers has always been an above average quarterback in the NFL. It has just been a question of the talent around him, most specifically what is going on in front of him on the offensive line. The offensive front is actually healthier than normal for San Diego, and Rivers has had some big games through the air already. 

The big problem for San Diego is their secondary. The Chargers will be without a starting safety and their top two cornerbacks for this game. Oakland has good weapons on the outside, and Derek Carr should have a field day here. 

At the same time, Oakland is missing safety Nate Allen as well. Rivers is likely to be able to pick apart this Raiders secondary. 

Oakland is allowing more passing yards per game than any other team in the NFL. San Diego is 6th worst in the league in that measure. 

The over is 6-0 in the last 6 in a game played by any team in either the AFC West or NFC West in their first game home following a 2 or more game road trip on the East coast. The over is 4-0 in the Chargers last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 30 points or more. The over is 3-0-1 in the Raiders last 4 after gaining 90 yards or less on the ground last game. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* We've gotten a discount here because of Hurricane Matthew. Matthew was expected to head north toward Baltimore, but the track of the hurricane has changed significantly in the past day. Now, the forecast for Baltimore is sunny on Sunday afternoon. 

The line has dropped 1.5 points due to the expected bad weather, and now we are getting a value. I liked the over before the line drop, but wanted to wait on the weather before playing this. Now, I expect this line to climb back up toward gametime on Sunday.

Washington's defense is about as bad as you'll find in the NFL. Opponents are rushing for 4.88 yards per carry against them, and the Redskins secondary has been beaten deep consistently. Joe Flacco loves to throw the deep ball, and this is an opponent he should be able to exploit. 

Baltimore's defense didn't look very good against the Raiders last weekend. The Ravens hadn't played a good offense all year until last weekend. Washington isn't a great offense, but they are better on offense than the Browns, Bills, and Jaguars (the Ravens first 3 opponents). 

The over is 5-0 in the Redskins last 5 road games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following a win. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans offense hasn't impressed me this year. It really doesn't make sense that the team has decided to go to a pro style offense where they run it as often as possible and slow the game down. This is exactly the opposite of what Marcus Mariota was used to running in college. Now, Mariota is clearly regressing, and for some reason people seem surprised. This isn't a good offense for Mariota.

Ryan Tannehill isn't to be trusted either, and the Dolphins offense in general has been really poor this year. Their performance against the Bengals last time out was miserable. They literally got nothing in that game after an early 74 yard touchdown pass. Miami had 8 first downs in that game.

Tennessee is slowing the pace down more than any other team in the NFL so far this year. It's also important to note that 15 mph winds are expected during this game, which is a negative for scoring. 

The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Miami. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings defense is dominating. Mike Zimmer is a tremendous head coach who still doesn't get enough credit. Minnesota is going to bring a good effort on the defensive end every single game. 

Houston's offense doesn't impress at this point, because I don't know what I'll get from Brock Osweiler. The Texans have good pieces at the wide receiver spots, but their offensive line is questionable and their running game is subpar now. Don't expect them to have much success here.

Even without J.J. Watt, this Houston Texans defense is very good. Minnesota is dead last in the NFL in yards per carry so far this year. Sam Bradford has been very good in his role, but he'll be pressured a lot in this game by the Texans strong defensive front. 

Houston is playing at the 17th fastest pace in the NFL and Minnesota is 28th out of 32 teams. Both defenses have the upper hand.

The under is 5-0 in the Texans last 5 games following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS cover. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 after allowing 90 yards or less on the ground. The under is 3-0 in the Vikings last 3 games. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Indianapolis Colts took a big risk when they decided to decline their chance to get a bye week after a trip to London. I think that was a bad decision, and we are likely to see the effects of that in this game.

Indianapolis is often thought of as a good team, because they have won a lot of games in the past 3 years. The Colts are no longer a good team though. Now, we're asking a team that isn't any good to lay 5 points at home after a week of traveling overseas? I have to grab the points with the Bears here.

Andrew Luck is still very good, but the pieces around him are terrible. The offensive line can't protect him. The Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL. 

Chicago's defense is improved this year, and they are getting slightly healthier of late. Their linebackers are some of the best in the NFL. The Bears defense is much better than the Colts defense, and when I can get the much better defense and this many points, I'll grab it.

I consider Brian Hoyer at least equal to if not better than Jay Cutler. The Colts secondary is bad and I expect Hoyer to have success here.

In this game, 55% of the bets are on the Colts, but 65% of the money is on the Bears. Looks like the sharp side to me.

Take Chicago here. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* We're getting a discount on the Carolina Panthers this week. Carolina is 1-2 on the season so far. The Panthers losses though have come against two extremely good teams in Denver and Minnesota. 

Last week's Panthers loss to the Vikings was a misleading final score as well. The Panthers outgained the Vikings 306 yards to 211, but turnovers cost them. Cam Newton had a terrible day, and he has really been subpar so far this season. He has faced two of the top three defenses in the NFL though in the Broncos and the Vikings.

Atlanta is feeling pretty good about themselves after a win at New Orleans last weekend. The Falcons have been putting up big numbers on offense, but look at who they have played against. The Falcons have gone against the Bucs, Raiders, and Saints thus far. All three of those teams and bottom 10 defenses in the league. 

Carolina has a top five defense in the NFL, and I expect things to be much tougher for Matt Ryan and the Falcons in this game. 

The fact that Carolina comes into this one 1-2 makes me like this bet even more. This Panthers team was in the Super Bowl last year, and they really don't want to fall to 1-3 here and get two games behind the Falcons in their division. 

The Falcons are coming off a short week as well with the Monday Night game in New Orleans as their last game. Carolina is 20-10 ATS in their last 30 following a loss.

Take Carolina. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Browns defense is likely to battle with the New Orleans Saints defense to see who is the worst defense in the NFL this year. Washington's defense isn't much better. Both of these defenses rank in my bottom five defenses in the NFL. 

Cody Kessler starts here for the Browns, and while I certainly don't trust him very much, I believe the Browns can move the ball here. Terrelle Pryor has become a weapon for the team, and he should be utilized well here. Hue Jackson is a good coach and he is an offensive minded guy. Look for him to get his team in a position to score several times here.

Kirk Cousins and the Washington offense got going against New York last week. Cleveland's defense shouldn't be able to slow them down here either. Cleveland doesn't have a strong pass rush and that puts a lot of pressure on their secondary. Cousins has been able to pick apart the weakest of defense in the past.

The over is 8-0 in the Redskins last 8 games. The over is 5-0 in the Redskins last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. A 22-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Bookie SMASHER* The New York Jets turned it over 8 times last week. You won't find many worse offensive performances in the NFL at any time. Stick a fork in the Jets? No. In fact, I think the fact that they kept the game so close last week despite 8 turnovers says a lot. In the NFL, when you see such a terrible performance from a team that is mediocre or better, you often see a bounce back in the next week. I think the Jets can have that performance here.

The Jets defensive front is elite. The Seattle offensive line might be the worst one in the NFL. Seattle really struggles to protect Russell Wilson, and I expect the Jets to be all over Wilson in this one. Wilson isn't 100 percent, and that should play a role in this game as well.

Here's another important reason for making this play. The ticket count here is 50/50, but 78% of the money is on the Jets. The sharp money is siding with the Jets, and I am going to agree.

Seattle has a hobbled quarterback and a terrible offensive line. The Jets are anxious to bounce back after last weekend. Take the Jets. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Rams rank 4th in yards per pass allowed in the NFL. The Rams front four is excellent, and they should be able to put enough pressure on Jameis Winston to make life relatively difficult on him. Doug Martin is out for this game, and that definitely hurts the Bucs offense. Tampa Bay becomes more one-dimensional without him, and that should help the Rams defense get after Winston even more.

The Tampa Bay defense hasn't been great so far this year, but the Rams offense is bad enough that it can make a mediocre defense look good. Case Keenum just doesn't look like the answer to me. Even more discouraging for the Rams has to be the play of the offensive line and the running of Todd Gurley. Tampa Bay's defense is much better against the run (3.0 ypc) than the pass, and I don't see Keenum being a guy who can exploit the Tampa Bay secondary.

The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 4 September games. The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 4 vs. the NFC. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 15 points or less. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Contrarian Play* The Seattle Seahawks offense has been bad so far this year. They have had two games go well under the posted total. That's why the public, which normally bets overs, is taking the under in this one. I'm going to go against popular opinion and suggest a play on the over here.

Chip Kelly's San Francisco offense scored 28 points on a good Rams defense and 27 points on a very good Carolina defense. The 49ers play at the fastest pace in the NFL. They'll get plenty of possessions here. 

Seattle has their chance to break out on offense in this one. The San Francisco defense looked bad last week against Carolina. Seattle is a favorite here by a wide margin, and if the 49ers get down early, they will play extremely fast late in the game. They did precisely this last weekend against Carolina, and that game was a shootout late in the game.

I think Seattle can make some big plays on the outside throughout this game. 

The last meeting between these two was 29-13, and that was before Chip Kelly and his faster tempo came to San Francisco. 

There won't be many times you'll be able to take over 41 in a game with Chip Kelly as one of the coaches. Too much value to pass up. Grab the over in this one.

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New York Giants gained 417 yards last weekend. They struggled getting the ball into the end zone, but New York's offense moved the ball very well. New York now has three very good receiving options: Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz, and Sterling Shephard. Eli Manning can be very good when given time to throw, and with this many weapons I see the Giants offense being better than expected.

The Washington Redskins defense has been torched by both Pittsburgh and Dallas. Pittsburgh has a very good offense, but Dallas' offense is questionable right now and they put up 27 points without being very good in the red zone. Washington's defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Look for Manning to have a big day.

Kirk Cousins has been under fire, but he has had some success in the past against the Giants. The Giants defense isn't as good as they have looked so far this year.

Both of these teams are playing at a relatively quick tempo. With the total down to 45.5, I think all the value is on the over.

The over is 7-0 in the Redskins last 7 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 250 passing yards or more. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MNF Eagles/Bears ATS CASH* The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Cleveland Browns at home last weekend. Carson Wentz looked good in his debut. It is really important to keep things in perspective though. Wentz was going up against the Cleveland Browns defense. At the end of the year, the Browns are likely to have one of the 3 or 4 worst defenses in the NFL. 

Wentz and the Eagles offense won't have the same luxury this week. They are playing on the road at Soldier Field against a much improved Chicago Bears defense. The Bears went out and got Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman to form a tremendous duo at the linebacker position. Chicago will be much improved this year, especially against the run. 

I see this price being an overreaction to a solid week one performance by the Eagles.

Jay Cutler improved last year, and I see him having a similar season to last year again. The Bears have enough weapons around him to allow him to not have to do everything himself. 

In the early going here, we have the sharps solidly lining up with the Bears. Though about 60% of the bets are on the Eagles, a little more than 75% of the money is on the Bears. Lay the short price with the home team here.Take Chicago. 

*4 Star Eagles/Bears Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Eagles played at the quickest tempo in the league last year with Chip Kelly at the helm, but things will be much different this year. Based on Doug Pederson's background, I expect the Eagles to rank among the five slowest paced teams in the league this year. The Bears have typically ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of pace of play as well, and I don't see that changing this year. 

There is no doubt that the Bears defense is much better this year than last season. They have upgraded in a big way at the linebacker position, and I expect Danny Trevathan to have a great year for them. 

The Eagles defense has no glaring weaknesses, and Philadelphia is going to be much better defensively now that they aren't on the field all the time like they were last season. 

Wentz was good in his first game, but that was against a terrible Browns defense. Jay Cutler isn't a guy I like to trust either. 

I see a low scoring battle all the way.

The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 after allowing 15 points or less last game. The under is 5-0 in the Eagles last 5 September games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win by 14 points or more. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night CASH* The Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers in a key divisional game. Minnesota is opening up their new stadium here, and the stakes are always high when these two meet. These are the teams expected to compete for the NFC North. The Vikings topped Green Bay on the road to win the division last year. 

The Vikings appear ready to start Sam Bradford at quarterback in this game. Bradford has only been around the team about two weeks, so he can't know the entire playbook very well. We know the Vikings will play it close to the vest here, because they are already one of the most conservative play calling teams in the NFL (arguably the most conservative). 

The Vikings have the big edge in the trenches in this game. The Packers have the much better quarterback. I don't think the Packers defense will let Peterson have a huge game here, and the Vikings defense has been solid against Rodgers recently.

This looks like one of those very hard fought games where someone wins 17-14 or 20-17. 

The under is 10-1 in the Vikings last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 11-5 in the Packers last 16 games. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Houston Texans defense will be one of the best in the NFL all year. They have run stuffers and obviously they have amazing pass rushers all over the field. Kansas City's defense is also one that I believe is better than the average defense in the league.

Kansas City had to play a quick tempo in the second half to make their miraculous comeback against San Diego last week, but year after year under Andy Reid they have ranked as one of the slowest paced teams in the league. The Texans have slowed their pace of play down this season as they have a new quarterback in the system.

I think both offenses will keep things quite vanilla in this one. Look for a lot of running plays that keep the clock ticking. I expect to see a very close game all the way where the defenses have the upper hand. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Oddsmaker ERROR* The Tennessee Titans should have beaten the Minnesota Vikings last week. If it weren't for two defensive touchdowns from the Vikings, Tennessee would have won that game. 

The Detroit Lions jumped out to a big 18 point lead, before needing a game winning field goal with 8 seconds left to edge the Colts last weekend. I had the Lions in that game, and I do respect this team, but I feel like the oddsmakers have overreacted in this one. 

Week two is often called overreaction week, and here I think the snap judgement on both teams is a little off. Tennessee outplayed the Vikings and stuffed the run very well last week. The Lions defense showed some significant issues in the second half against the Colts, and I'm not sure the Colts are very good.

The Titans defense shut down Adrian Peterson, and I expect them to make the Lions one dimensional here. It's hard to win games, let alone win games by a big amount in the NFL when you are one dimensional. 

The Lions play the Packers next week, and this is a potential look ahead spot based on the way the Lions lost on the Hail Mary to Green Bay in their last meeting.

Take the Titans. 

*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The San Francisco 49ers are going to run an uptempo offense under Chip Kelly, but I don't expect them to be very efficient on offense. This is still a team that lacks weapons. Other than going out and grabbing Chip Kelly, I'm not sure this team really did much of anything to improve the offense. 

The St. Louis Rams have all sorts of offensive problems as well. Case Keenum hasn't proven that he is good enough to win games on a consistent basis. The Rams are almost certainly going to want to run the ball and control the clock more here, and that should help the under.

The 49ers defense is a league average defense, and I think that should be good enough to slow down the Rams offense the majority of the game. The Rams defense is a good one. St. Louis might be a bit vulnerable on the deep ball in the secondary, but I don't see the 49ers having the players necessary to take advantage of that weakness.

The under is 38-17-1 in the Rams last 56 road games. The under is 18-5 in the 49ers last 23 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Detroit Lions have a really good defensive line. The weakness of the Indianapolis Colts is their offensive line. Andrew Luck is likely to be running for his life early and often in this one. 

The biggest problem the Colts offense has is they don't really even have a running game for other teams to respect. The Lions will be able to blitz Andrew Luck constantly here, and that should make for a difficult game for him.

Detroit's offense lost Calvin Johnson, but there are still plenty of pieces in place here. Matt Stafford has proven over time to be an effective quarterback when he has time to throw, and I think he'll get enough time here. 

Vontae Davis being out is a huge hit for the Colts secondary. This is a Colts defense that I have ranked as one of the five worst in the NFL, and they are without arguably their most important player.

While 2/3 of the public bets on this game are on the Colts, 80% of the money bet is on the Lions. I'll go with the sharp money on the Lions plus the points. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals lost their offensive coordinator from last year. Hue Jackson could be a pretty big loss for Andy Dalton and company. An even bigger loss is Tyler Eifert. Eifert is key for this offense because he opens things up on the outside for AJ Green. Marvin Jones is gone as well, and the Bengals pass receivers are subpar now. Look for the Bengals to struggle through the air against a good secondary. The Jets are solid up front as well, and I see them making life difficult on the Bengals.

The Jets offense isn't filled with stars. It's a group that can get the job done, but it isn't necessarily pretty. Cincinnati's defense has been underrated the last few years, and I believe they'll be good again this season. The Bengals have some talented playmakers on all levels.

The winds are expected to be a bit of an issue here, which should mean even more running the football. I expect a very close game that stays under the total. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Chicago Bears defense got much better with the signings of Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman. The Bears now have one of the best groups of linebackers in the NFL. I think this Bears defense is going to surprise to the upside in the season ahead. 

Houston is a defense that is obviously one of the best in the NFL. J.J. Watt's recovery has stunned everyone, and the fact that he is expected to play Sunday is a huge plus. The Bears are going through some transitions on offense, and I don't see Houston as a team that will make it easy on the Bears offense.

I'm very surprised the number was set so high here, and it seems like the sharp players in the market agree. About 81% of the money so far bet on this total has been on the under. Public players don't play this early, so I see most of that as sharp money.

Neither quarterback is all that trustworthy, and we have two of the top ten defenses in the NFL in my book. This one is a strong under play for me. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* Who are the Houston Texans to be laying six points right now? We haven't even seen how Brock Osweiler will fit in the system. It's clear to me that he isn't a franchise quarterback, and I think most share that assumption. Why are the Texans getting so much love here? Most likely think the Texans are going to be able to run the ball on the Bears, but I don't see that being the case.

With Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman, the Bears brought in two really good linebackers. That's going to make this defense, and specifically this run defense, much better in the year ahead. The Houston offensive line is a mess, and I don't see them opening holes in this one.

Jay Cutler made some positive steps last year, and I do believe he is the better quarterback in this game. 

Six is a lot of points in the NFL. I see this as a game that is likely to be decided by 3 or 4 points. I give the Bears a real shot at an outright upset, but I'll gladly grab the points. The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take Chicago. 

*4 Star Super Bowl Super CASH* I waited for this number to appear, and now I'll take it. This isn't a fade of Carolina, rather it is simply a play on what I believe is far too much value to pass up. 

Carolina is a good team, but they haven't been tested in the playoffs yet. Seattle dug a 31-0 hole in the first half due to silly turnovers. Carson Palmer was absolutely awful last game. Palmer looked like he was playing for the wrong team he was handing the Panthers the ball so often. While I know that the Panthers defense is opportunistic, I don't think turnovers like Carolina has benefited from in the past two weeks are things that should be counted on.

Denver's defense was the best defense in the NFL this year, and by a wide margin. This team can get after the quarterback really well. Miller is playing at an elite level, and he'll be tough for Carolina to slow down. The Broncos secondary is excellent also. Trevathan doesn't get enough credit for how solid he is, and DeMarcus Ware is obviously a beast as well. This Denver defense is scary good.

Carolina's defense is good, but they have given up a lot of yards late in the year. Denver's offensive front has improved down the stretch. 

Getting six points with the best defense in the NFL in a game with a posted total of only 45 is just too much for me to pass up. Take Denver. 

*4 Star NFC Championship CRUSHER* The Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers meet in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday night. I'm looking forward to this one. There are some great playmakers on offense in this game. Cam Newton has been amazing this year, and Stewart is underrated as a running back. 

Carson Palmer has been great all year and the Cardinals have a ton of weapons in the passing game. The Carolina secondary has allowed more big plays late in the season, and that's where Arizona can beat them. I expect Arizona to be able to bust several long plays.

Arizona's defense is banged up now, and Carolina has been great at breaking long runs and mixing in the passing game when needed. Also, both of these defenses have scored a lot this year, and some defensive or special teams touchdowns here wouldn't be a big surprise. 

This is a matchup of the number one and number two scoring offenses in the NFL. A back and forth game. The over is 10-4 in the Panthers last 14 playoff games. The over is 5-1 in Arizona's last 6 playoff games. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Under* I waited on this one for a long time. I've wanted to play the under, but figured the line would go up, and it finally has. I wanted the key number of 45, and now we have it. This is not a big play, but I do believe it has some value here. The Broncos will have to slow the game down and run the ball a lot to win here. New England's defense is underrated this year, and the Broncos offense isn't going to be able to do much down the field. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks meet in a rematch of a terrific game from earlier this year. Carolina went to Seattle and beat the Seahawks in shocking fashion with a late comeback victory. 

Seattle's defense didn't play well early in the season, but they are definitely playing well now. The Seahawks defense rates number one in the NFL in the past month. They are first in the NFL against the run, and Carolina is dependent on running the ball a bunch.

Carolina's defense is ranked number four when it comes to stopping the run. Seattle is definitely a run first team. The Panthers should make them work hard for yardage here. 

A cool day with a slight chance of rain mixed with snow is in the forecast for Sunday afternoon in Charlotte. 

The under is 5-0 in Seattle's last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing less than 15 points last game.  The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 250 yards or less last game. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Carolina. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Pats/Chiefs Total DOMINATION* The Kansas City Chiefs offense still isn't good. Alex Smith is a game manager and the running game is important to their success. New England has done a solid job of stopping the run this year, and they will sell out to stop the run here. Jeremy Maclin is questionable and if he plays he will be at less than 100 percent. Maclin is the Chiefs best playmaker and without him being healthy, I don't see Kansas City scoring much here. 

New England has a lot of question marks on offense. Edelman will play, but is less than 100 percent. Gronkowski is listed as questionable. I think he plays, but he is likely less than 100 percent too. While the Pats should have some success on offense, this Chiefs defense has played exceptionally down the stretch.

Heavy rain is in the forecast for early Saturday afternoon here. The rain will likely be letting up during the game, but the field will be sloppy and a 10 to 12 mph wind will hurt the passing games a bit. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Wild Card Best Bet* The Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks meet in a rematch of a regular season blowout win in favor of Seattle. This one will be a January games played outdoors in Minnesota. Currently, the forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for a temperature of 12 degrees and a 10 mph wind. 

Minnesota only got 9 first downs in the first meeting with Seattle. The only 7 points Minnesota scored was via a kickoff returned for 100 yards. The Seattle offense had a short field multiple times in that game, and I think Mike Zimmer and his staff will have the Minnesota defense better prepared for Seattle's offense in this one.

Seattle plays at the 24th quickest pace of play in the NFL (out of 32 teams). Minnesota plays at the 25th fastest tempo. 

The under is 4-0 in Seattle's last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 Wild Card games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 January games. The under is 9-1 in Minnesota's last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-1 angle. Take the under. 

*Note- This line has dropped throughout the week because of the weather forecast. I would recommend this as a 3 star play at the current price. Thank you*

*4 Star Saturday NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Texans defense didn't play up to expectations early in the season, but that changed in a big way toward the end of the season. Houston's amazing defense allowed 6 points or less in 5 of their last 9 games. That included their Monday Night Football against Cincinnati with the Bengals at full strength. 

Alex Smith is a game manager, and the Texans defense is going to be selling out to stop the run in this game. Kansas City has no history of winning playoff games of late, and Houston is more than a field goal underdog at home? This doesn't make sense to me.

Kansas City's 10 game win streak has been against poor teams for the most part, and their win against Pittsburgh during that streak was when the Steelers didn't have Big Ben. 

How's this for a kicker? This is a crazy, but very interesting statistic. Since 2004, there have been 13 teams that have entered the playoffs on a 8 game winning streak or longer. Those teams have gone 0-13 ATS! The Chiefs are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. A 19-0 angle. Take Houston. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers have a lot on the line in this one. In many games in week 17, I believe it is hard to predict where the total will go because the teams aren't motivated. These two teams are going to be motivated.

Green Bay looked awful last week, and they should play better here. The Packers defense will try to make Teddy Bridgewater beat them. Can he do it? I'm not sure he can. Green Bay's offense has changed quite a bit in recent weeks as well. With McCarthy calling the plays, the Packers are running the ball more often and using up the clock.

The under is 3-0-1 in the Vikings last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The under is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 home games. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Chargers offense is totally one-dimensional. They cannot run the football. Being one-dimensional in the NFL is dangerous against any defense, but against a defense like Denver it is very bad news. San Diego can't protect Phillip Rivers thanks to a ton of injuries on the offensive line. Denver ranks first in the NFL in sacks. Expect the Broncos to be in Rivers' face all day, and he's going to take some big hits.

The Chargers are missing several key playmakers on offense, and their defense has actually improved late in the season. Denver's offense is very inconsistent, but the Denver defense is easily the best in the league. The first game between these two was 17-3. I don't think this one gets very close to the total either.

The under is 4-0 in the Chargers last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AFC West. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 250 yards or more passing last game. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in Denver's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the AFC West. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Jets/Bills CASH* The New York Jets defense is excellent. The Buffalo Bills defense is very talented, but they have underachieved most of the year. I think Rex Ryan will do a good job motivating the defense and his team in general though as they go up against his old team and try to ruin their playoff chances.

A key factor here is the weather. There are snow showers expected throughout the day. It won't be a lot of snow that's the big problem though. The wind is the huge issue here. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will make throwing the football extremely difficult. Both offenses are likely to become very predictable running the football a bunch here. That will also keep the clock going. 

In a game that means a lot to both teams and with poor weather, I see a low scoring game. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Packers/Cardinals Total DOMINATION* The Green Bay Packers offense has looked a bit better in the last couple weeks. McCarthy is now calling the plays and he has given the team better balance. The offensive line is still a problem, but they have been better than they were early in the season. 

Arizona's secondary took a huge hit when Mathieu went down with a season ending knee injury. The Packers passing attack should be good enough to exploit the Cardinals weakness there. Patrick Peterson will probably play here, but he is dinged up as well. 

The Green Bay defense is no better than average at this point, and Arizona's offense is tremendous. The Cardinals rank first in the NFL in total offense. Arizona has been picking apart just about every defense they have played. 

The over is 5-2 in Arizona's last 7 home games. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The New York Jets need this game very badly. New York is being pushed hard in the AFC playoff race, and they simply can't afford to lose. New England would like to win here, but they don't need to win nearly as bad as the Jets do.

New England's injuries have to catch up to them at some point. This Patriots team is severely banged up. Remember, the first time these two played the Jets were leading for much of the game at New England before falling apart in the fourth quarter, but they did still get the cover. New York's defense has been one of the best at slowing down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. 

New England is catching most of the public money here, but the line is edging toward the Jets. That's a strong sign of sharp money being on the home underdog in this one. 

The Patriots are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Jets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4. The Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Jets. A 14-0 angle. Take New York. 

*5 Star NFL Game of the MONTH* The Kansas City Chiefs are playing at the single slowest tempo of any team in the league. They are taking 33.5 seconds between plays, which is the longest mark in the league. Kansas City's offense isn't very good. They have been putting up some big point totals of late because the defense has been scoring points in large amounts. That has made this Chiefs team look better than they are, at least offensively if you are looking at things like points per game. 

Cleveland's defense has been a little better in recent weeks. The Browns run defense still isn't good, but they have been slightly better of late. The Browns secondary is solid. Kansas City is likely to keep the ball on the ground a lot in this game and run the clock a lot. Cleveland has been running it a lot as well.

The weather is one of the big reasons I'm making this play as well. The forecast here is calling for rain throughout the game, and even more importantly, heavy winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 mph. That kind of weather is very good for under bettors.

The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 with less than 150 yards passing last game. The under is 4-0 in Kansas City's last 4 in Week 16. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. Top rated play. *NFL Game of the MONTH*

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed at least 20 points in each of their last 7 games. They have allowed 45 points in two of their last four games. Philadelphia's offense has been a little bit better of late, and the Eagles still play at the fastest pace of any team in the league by a wide margin. 

Arizona's offense has been amazing this year. Carson Palmer has been a star in this offense. Arizona ranks first in the NFL in total offense, and they are averaging 31.2 points per game. I think they'll be able to get a lot of big plays against this Eagles defense.

The Cardinals defense has been a bit disappointing of late. Arizona allowed 32 and 31 points in back to back weeks against Seattle and Cincinnati recently. They are a good defense, but they aren't elite like some thought they would be. Philadelphia will get a lot of snaps and opportunities here.

Take the over.  

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New England Patriots offense is very banged up right now. This is one of those games where I think it would make sense for the Patriots to simply get out healthy rather than worry about scoring everytime and winning big. Since I don't trust the Titans to be able to score on New England, I'm taking the under instead of the underdog.

The New England defense has been a lot better than people realize this year. New England ranks sixth in the NFL in total defense. They rank in the top ten in the NFL in both pass defense and run defense. This is a good balanced defense. 

The Titans have scored 14 points or less in 8 of their 13 games so far this year. I don't see them being able to score much here.

The weather could be a bit of a problem too. Winds of up to 20 mph could keep both teams running the ball more often than normal.

The under is 7-1 in the Titans last 8 December games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Titans last 5 after gaining 250 yards or more through the air last game. A 16-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears are both better on defense than they are on offense. Though Jay Cutler played better for a while this year, he is still Jay Cutler, which means he can't be relied on in big games. Minnesota's defense played very well last week against Arizona, and they have a great defensive head coach in Zimmer.

Minnesota's passing game is bad, which will allow Chicago to stack the box and make life difficult on Adrian Peterson. None of the last four meetings have gone above 43 points. In the last two meetings, no team has gained more than 330 yards of total offense. I think the defensive theme continues here.

The under is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in the Vikings last 6 after a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 350 yards or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the Bears and Vikings overall. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Jets/Cowboys CASH* I'm not big on playing road favorites in the NFL, but this is a good price on the New York Jets. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys are technically still mathematically in the NFC East race, but they know they aren't going to win it. The Jets have a whole lot more to play for than do the Cowboys.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been very good this year, and the Dallas secondary is inconsistent. The Jets offensive line is one of the best in the league. The Dallas defense was torched by Green Bay's running game last week. The Jets running game should get going in this one.

If the Jets can have much success on offense at all, it's hard to see the Cowboys covering here. How will Dallas score? The Jets allow the fewest amount of rushing yards per game of any team in the NFL. We all know Cassel isn't the answer at quarterback for Dallas, and the Jets secondary is good. 

Dallas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take the Jets. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Green Bay Packers are coming off a last second win over Detroit last week. Green Bay was certainly fortunate to get that win, and the Packers offense has shown in recent weeks that they have some major problems. Aaron Rodgers is still great, but the talent around him isn't good enough right now. Dallas' Sean Lee has been playing some great football, and he has helped this Dallas defense be much better since he has been healthy again. 

Dallas' offense is terrible with Cassel at quarterback. The Cowboys are going to have to run it early and often here, and Green Bay should be ready for the running game. Dallas plays at the slowest pace of play of any team in the NFL too, which is obviously helpful for the under.

The weather should be an issue here. There is a 90 percent chance of rain and 20-25 mph winds are expected too. Wind and rain is very difficult for the offenses. 

The under is 5-0 in the Cowboys last 5 on grass. The under is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 games following an ATS win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a straight up win. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Raiders/Broncos Total* The Denver Broncos have the best defense in the NFL. The secondary is amazing and the pass rush is the best in the league by a wide margin. Oakland's offensive line has been having some issues of late, and Derek Carr has looked shaky under pressure.

The Denver offense isn't very good regardless of who is at quarterback. The running game has been a bit better of late, but Oakland's defense has improved quite a bit in the past month. 

The first meeting between these two teams saw a 16-10 Denver win, but the Broncos scored the game winning touchdown on an interception return. Neither offense could get going in that one. Look for a low scoring game again. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Detroit Lions lost last week's game in awful fashion. Aaron Rodgers' hail mary completion to end the game will be remembered for years. Detroit did play well for the majority of that game, and their defense has been much improved in recent weeks.

Detroit allowed 16 in their win at Green Bay. They allowed 13 at home against Oakland. They then allowed 14 against the Eagles. Last week they gave up 27, but it would have been a decent 21 before that last play.

St. Louis' offense has been a joke of late. The Rams offensive line is banged up in a big way. St. Louis hasn't been able to pave the way for Todd Gurley to get going at all of late. Nick Foles was so bad last week that the Rams are going back to Case Keenum for this one. Keenum isn't a good option either. 

The Rams defensive line should get pressure on Matt Stafford, and the Lions can't run the football at all. Both teams play much slower than the league average in terms of pace of play. The public is betting the over at almost 70% and yet the line has dropped a half point. That's very telling.

The under is 7-1 in the Rams last 8. The under is 12-3 in the Lions last 15 road games. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Buffalo Bills defense has been a big disappointment so far this year. Buffalo just isn't getting the job done on that side of the ball. Philadelphia's offense has obviously been disappointing too, but the Eagles play at the fastest tempo in the NFL and they should break some big plays on this Buffalo defense.

On the other side, Buffalo's offense has been far better than expected. Tyrod Taylor has been excellent. LeSean McCoy has all kinds of reasons to be very motivated for his chance to go against his former team here as well. The Eagles defense has been really bad against the run in recent weeks. Watkins has been a great playmaker for this offense.

This total is too low for these two teams. Good weather is expected for this one as well. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is locked in right now. On the other hand, the San Diego Chargers offense is a mess. These teams met in late November, and the Chiefs won that one 33-3. Kansas City's pass rush was all over Phillip Rivers in that game, and there's no reason to expect anything different in this game. In two of the Chargers last three games, they have put up only three points.

San Diego is the single most banged up offense in the NFL. The Chargers offensive line is a patched together group that isn't good at all. Rivers has next to one to throw the ball to with all sorts of wide receiver injuries. Kansas City should shut them down here.

Kansas City's offense is nothing spectacular. The 34 points they scored last week was leading since the defense directly led to most of those points. The Chiefs should grab a lead here and then milk the clock. Kansas City ranks 30th out of 32 teams in the NFL in pace of play.

The under is 6-0 in San Diego's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in KC's last 7 after gaining 250 yards or less last game. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The Washington Redskins have a real chance to be the outright leader in the awful NFC East. Washington would be my lean here as far as the side goes, but the public is pounding the Redskins and the line is dropping, which is a reason for me to stay away in this case. 

Instead, I'm playing the under. The Redskins and Cowboys rank 31st and 32nd out of 32 teams in the NFL in terms of pace of play. That means we'll see a lot of the play clock ticking very low before the snap in this one. 

Dallas knows they can't throw it very much with Cassel at quarterback, and I look to see a heavy diet of runs from the Cowboys. Washington's defense will be loading up the box. The Redskins offense has been pretty good at home, but Dallas' defense has solid numbers for the year overall.

These two teams are bitter rivals and they have played a lot of low scoring games against one another in recent years. 

The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. The under is 4-0 in Dallas' last 4 on grass. The under is 7-1 in the Cowboys last 8 following an ATS loss. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Tennessee Titans are lacking playmakers on offense. Marcus Mariota is a good quarterback, but I don't think he has enough help right now. Tennessee generally likes to run the ball, but Jacksonville actually ranks first in the NFL in least yards per carry allowed this year 3.34 per attempt. 

Jacksonville's offense isn't great to start with either, and without Hurns at wide receiver this week, Bortles is going to have a difficult test. The Titans defense is an underrated unit that has been very good this year.

A couple weeks ago these teams played and their game stayed under the total. I think this one does too.

The under is 6-0 in the Titans last 6 December games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 on grass. The under is 7-1 in their last 8 after gaining 90 yards or less rushing last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 21-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings can't throw the football with any kind of consistency, and that has been the way to beat the Seahawks this year. The Seattle front seven has still been doing a really nice job against the run. Minnesota's rushing attack is first in the NFL, but I think Adrian Peterson will find things a little tougher going than normal here.

Seattle runs the ball early and often, and their passing game lost a key weapon when Jimmy Graham went down with a knee injury last week. Look for the Seahawks to use the running game a bunch in this one, and Mike Zimmer's Vikings defense is a pretty good one. Minnesota is especially good on defense on their home turf.

The under is 6-0 in the Vikings last 6 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NFC. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following a straight up win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 150 yards or more on the ground last game. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Houston Texans defense may not have started the season playing up to their potential, but they have started doing it in the last few weeks. The Texans defense has been amazing of late. Houston's pass rush is obviously very good with J.J. Watt leading the way, and the Bills offensive line is banged up. That's a bad combination for Tyrod Taylor and this offense. The Houston secondary is elite.

The Buffalo defense has been up and down this year, but I think they can slow a mediocre Houston offense. The Texans have primarily been so good lately because of their defense.

There are a lot of good defensive minded coaches in this game, and neither team has a star quarterback. While the public is betting the over, the line has dropped by a point during the week. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Chicago Bears picked up a really nice win at Green Bay on Thanksgiving night. Chicago has had extra rest and preparation for this game. The San Francisco 49ers have been miserable away from home this year. They are giving up 35 points per game on the road. Jay Cutler has a lot of weapons at his disposal with this offense, and he is playing pretty well. With Matt Forte healthy again, the offense should be able to improve even further. 

While Blaine Gabbert has been fairly good in his first few starts with the Niners, I don't trust him a bit. The Bears defense has been solid this year, and I think their coaching staff is doing a great job helping them improve week by week.

At a touchdown or less, I have to back the Bears here.

The 49ers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 December games. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a win. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after giving up 350 yards or more last game. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 overall. A 16-0 angle. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star NFL Jets/Giants Value* The New York Jets will really miss Revis in this one. Eli Manning played very poorly last week, but he's had a nice season overall. I see Manning bouncing back in this game. The Giants have proven to be good at bouncing back from a loss in Tom Coughlin's era as head coach. The Jets running game hasn't been nearly as good in recent weeks. New York's run defense is pretty good. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't even close to as good as he looked last week. The Giants have dominated this series of late. Take the New York Giants. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Tennessee Titans have a good young quarterback in Marcus Mariota. The problem for them is he doesn't have enough weapons around him right now. Mariota has no playmakers on the outside to take advantage of the Raiders weakness, which is their secondary. Tennessee is primarily a running team now, but Oakland's rushing defense has been solid of late. 

On the other side, Tennessee has the sixth ranked defense in the NFL. The Titans defense has been underrated all year. The way Oakland moves it most frequently is through the air with rookie Amari Cooper on the outside and budding star Derek Carr under center. The Titans secondary is excellent though, and they rank third in the NFL in pass defense.

The under is 6-2 in the Titans last 8 home games. Look for a lower scoring game than expected. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Houston Texans and the New Orleans Saints both like to get a lot of plays off quickly. That should mean both offenses get a lot of possessions in this one. Houston's defense has been inconsistent this year. Drew Brees and the Saints offense has gotten much better over the course of the season. The Saints should be able to come up with some big plays in this one.

The New Orleans defense has been the worst defense in the league by a mile so far this year. Yes, I know Rob Ryan was fired, but I don't think there is going to be a quick fix here. Houston's offense has playmakers, and I expect DeAndre Hopkins to have a big day on the outside against Brandon Browner. 

The over is 4-1 in the Saints last 5 road games. The over is 5-2 in Houston's last 7 home games. Take the over. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Play of Week* The Atlanta Falcons offense has been a disappointment all year. Matt Ryan hasn't played well. The offensive line in front of him hasn't protected him well. The Minnesota Vikings have allowed the 7th least amount of passing yards in the NFL. It's no secret that Atlanta needs to be able to throw it effectively to score very many here. 

On the other side, Minnesota is the number one rushing offense in the NFL. They are dead last in the NFL in passing offense. If the Vikings can't run it, they are in serious trouble. Atlanta ranks first in the NFL against the run. They are giving up only 87.4 yards per game on the ground. Adrian Peterson will likely have a tougher time than usual against this strong defensive front. Coach Quinn has done a really nice job with this Falcons defense.

Both defenses present a real challenge for the offenses in this game. 

The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 after a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 November games. The under is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 after an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0-1 in the Falcons last 7 after an ATS loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 on turf. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 250 yards passing or more. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Packers/Bears Thanksgiving Night CASH* The Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears meet in Green Bay on Thursday night. The weather in this one should play a major role. There is supposed to be rain changing to sleet with winds of 25 mph or more during this game. That's a really bad weather forecast for points. Jay Cutler and the Bears offense weren't likely to have much of an edge anyways, and the weather should hurt them a lot. Green Bay will likely be more conservative with their play calling on offense.

The under is 5-0 in the Bears last 5 on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 following a win. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. *Note- This line has been moving down with the weather forecast being nasty. I would play this for 4 stars down to 45 and for 3 stars at any price below that. Thank you*

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Arizona Cardinals offense has been dynamic this year. Carson Palmer gets to play against his old team here, and I expect Arizona to move the ball well. The Bengals defense hasn't played against too many elite offenses yet, and they will on Sunday. While the Bengals defense is solid, I don't think they are as good as the numbers make them look so far this season.

On the other end, Arizona's defense has been giving up quite a few big plays. Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense definitely looked bad last weekend, but the Bengals offense has been very good overall this year. Tyler Eifert had 3 critical drops last week, but Eifert has been a huge difference maker for the offense this season. I expect him to have a big game in a good matchup for him.

Expect a close game where both offenses move the ball throughout the game. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings have been disrespected by the betting market all year long. I was really impressed with Minnesota's win last week at Oakland. The Vikings were in the classic look ahead spot. They had their divisional rival on deck and they still went out and thumped a pretty decent Oakland team. 

Minnesota has the number one rushing offense in the NFL, and I'm not convinced the Green Bay defensive front can hold up against them. The Packers have been a big disappointment in recent weeks. Aaron Rodgers is still a great quarterback, but he isn't getting any help right now. They dont' have the playmakers they have had in the past, and Green Bay's offensive line has been awful. Minnesota's defense is a good unit, and they should make life tough on the Green Bay offense that comes in struggling.

Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. Minnesota is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a win. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 ATS after allowing 90 yards rushing or less last game. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards last game. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 November games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NFC. A 40-0 angle. Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Oakland Raiders passing attack has been really fantastic this year. Oakland struggled against one of the best defenses in the NFL last week, but look at how they have done against other defenses this year. Oakland scored 35 points on Pittsburgh. They scored 34 against a good Jets defense. They scored 37 against Baltimore and 37 against San Diego. Detroit's defense is giving up 29 points per game.

The Detroit Lions can't run the ball, but they can throw it. Detroit has one of the best receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson, and no one in this Oakland secondary can slow him down. The Raiders secondary has given up the second most yards per game through the air in the NFL. Matt Stafford should throw for a ton of yards here. 

With both teams airing it out and moving it right down the field, I'll suggest a play on the over in this one. Take the over.

*4 Star NFL Patriots/Giants MONEY* The New England Patriots offense has been a well-oiled machine all year. There's no reason to believe that New York can do anything to slow them down here. The Giants secondary is one of the worst in the NFL and Tom Brady obviously has all the ability and all the weapons necessary to expose that weakness. 

Much has been made of the Patriots willingness to score as much as possible here because of their losses to the Giants in the past. I think that's something that helps the over even more than the side here. The Patriots secondary hasn't been tested by very many good passing games, and the Giants passing attack has been very good this year. Eli Manning is really throwing the ball well. 

I expect a lot of scoring from both sides in this game. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 November games. The over is 4-0 in their last on turf. The over is 4-0 in the Pats last 4 during week 10 of the season. A 12-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Oakland Raiders offense is far better this year than they have been in the past. The running game has been far better than anyone thought it would be, and Derek Carr has been amazing. Amari Cooper really helps this team a lot because of his playmaking abilities on the outside.

Minnesota's ground game is likely to get going against an Oakland defense that has been bad this year. Pittsburgh ran the ball at will against Oakland last week. Bridgewater has been cleared to play, and I think he can have some big plays in play action passing here thanks to the running game and its success.

Rain is expected here, but I still expect enough big plays to get this one over the total. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The St. Louis Rams and the Chicago Bears have both struggled on offense this year. The Rams have a very limited playbook, and Nick Foles hasn't been good at all in this offense. While Jay Cutler has been improved this year, he faces a great defensive line that will put a bunch of pressure on him in this game. Cutler isn't likely to pass this test well. This Rams defense is a whole different animal than taking on San Diego.

The Rams rushing attack is clearly very good, but their drives use up a lot of time. St. Louis doesn't look to snap it quickly at all, and the Rams will face a lot of people in the box in this game. I don't see many big plays on either side.

The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 10 overall. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after gaining 150 yards or more on the ground last game. The under is 7-1 in the Bears last 8 after gaining 250 yards or more through the air last game. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Broncos/Colts Totals CASH* The Indianapolis Colts offense has struggled to get going all year. Andrew Luck has been in a funk since coming back. He looked good late in the game at Carolina, but I think that was more about Carolina's defense getting into the prevent too early than anything else.

This Denver defense is scary good. They have the best pass rush in the NFL by a wide margin. They are solid against the run (Indianapolis has a poor running game). Denver also has a tremendous secondary. They are clearly the best defensive unit in the league.

Denver's offense looked better last week, but I'm still not convinced on this unit. The Broncos offensive numbers for the year are really bad. Indianapolis needs this game and they should bring a lot of intensity. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has improved a lot in recent weeks. Jameis Winston started out poorly in the NFL, but he has looked solid of late. The New York Giants pass defense is currently ranked dead last in the league. They made Drew Brees look like the best quarterback of all time last weekend. Brees is very good, but he isn't that good, especially with questionable weapons around him. Tampa Bay's defense has given up a bunch of yards in their last couple games vs. Washington and Atlanta. New York's passing game has been good, and Eli Manning has been sharp overall this year. I see both teams putting up quite a few here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco 49ers defense has been really good at home this year. Their splits home vs. away are remarkable. The Atlanta Falcons offense has been weaker in recent weeks. San Francisco's defense did a really nice job against Green Bay when they came to the Bay Area a few weeks ago. 

Colin Kaepernick has been benched and Blaine Gabbert is now the starter for the Niners. Kaepernick deserved to be benched with the way he had been playing, but does anyone really think Gabbert is the answer? Gabbert has been even worse than Kaepernick in his career, and Gabbert isn't likely to look good against an improving Falcons defense. Atlanta brought in a new head coach that would focus on defense, and it is working out for them.

The under is 3-0-1 in the Falcons last 4. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 4-0 in the Niners last 4 November games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Oakland Raiders have been flying high in recent weeks. They are coming off two impressive wins. One was over the Chargers on the road and another over the Jets. Derek Carr is definitely playing extremely well right now, but this Oakland defense is extremely weak in the secondary.

I won't be surprised if Oakland ends the year with the worst pass defense in the league by the numbers. Right now they are second worst. Big Ben was a little rusty in week one back, but that was against a good Bengals secondary. Things should be a lot easier this week for Pittsburgh.

While I think Oakland is much better this year, I don't believe they are as good as most think they are right now. Pittsburgh needs a bounce back win, and they should get it here.

Oakland is 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 following a win. Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Pittsburgh. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Play of the Month* The Oakland Raiders offense has been amazing. Derek Carr is playing exceptionally well. It's amazing what he has been able to do with some extra weapons around him. Everyone knows that Amari Cooper has been very good in his rookie year, but the Oakland running game has also been better than most people realize. Murray has been a good back for Oakland. 

Pittsburgh is coming off a tough loss where they lost at home to Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger struggled in his first game back from an injury. Big Ben is one of the best quarterbacks in this league though, and I see a great bounce back opportunity for him here. Oakland's secondary has been abused on a regular basis. Only the Giants secondary has worse numbers than Oakland. With Big Ben and his impressive pass catchers, Oakland is going to have a rough time again in pass defense.

Both teams should have plenty of scoring chances throughout this game. The over is 5-0 in the Raiders last 5 in Week 9. The over is 9-1 in the Raiders last 10 vs. the AFC. Take the over big! 

*3 Star Seahawks/Cowboys Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks defense is better than they have shown so far this year. This is a crucial game for the Seahawks as they look to enter their bye week at 4-4 on the season. The Dallas offense isn't very good with Cassel at quarterback. Dez Bryant's back here, but the Seattle secondary is one of the better units in the NFL and they should be fine against him.

Seattle's offensive line has had major problems this year. Dallas has a great pass rush and I think that will give Seattle a bunch of issues here. Russell Wilson has been sacked more than any other quarterback so far this year. Look for him to be on the run trying to get away from this elite Cowboys defensive line. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The New York Jets are a good team this year. New York has outgained every opponent they have played thus far. Oakland is certainly a much improved team, but the Raiders haven't yet shown they can consistently be at the top of their game. No one has been able to run the ball with much success against the Jets. Oakland's running game is subpar. Derek Carr has been good this year, but I see the Jets corners giving him problems in this game. This is an opportunistic group that should be able to grab a pick or two.

Offensively, the Jets running game is tremendous. The Raiders front seven is no better than mediocre. The Jets passing game is much better this year than it has been the past couple seasons.

Oakland is coming off a huge win at San Diego, and they are feeling pretty good about themselves. That's typically the time to fade a young team like this one. The Jets played well in a loss to New England last week, and I think they come in here with the right mindset. Oakland is better than they have been, but the Jets are the much more complete team.

The Jets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing last game. The Jets are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the AFC. A 14-0 angle. Take the Jets. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Chicago Bears had a bye week to prepare for this game, and that helped the team in a huge way. Chicago has been banged up in a major way this year. The Bears are finally getting healthy. The defense ranks in the top ten in the NFL right now. The offense is slowly improving in their new system. Most importantly for me is the fact that Minnesota has yet to prove they can win on the road. They won at Detroit last week after the Lions imploded after a fast start in that game. Minnesota has lost their lost six straight games at Soldier Field. 

The Bears may not be a good team right now, but I don't think they are bad either. Minnesota still has a lot to prove. The Vikings rank dead least in the NFL in total offense. Grab the home underdog in this one. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Carolina Panthers and the Philadelphia Eagles meet in primetime. Carolina is unbeaten and Philadelphia is playing better of late. What's making them turn things around? It's not the offense. It's been the Eagles defense, which is still being severely underrated in my opinion. The Eagles have been shutting down some good offenses of late, and I'm not convinced this Carolina offense is good. Cam Newton doesn't have enough weapons on the outside for this offense to beat a good defense consistently. Carolina is up against one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL. 

Sam Bradford still looks terrible in this Philly offense and the Panthers run defense should make Philadelphia work very hard for every yard they get on the ground. I see both teams settling for field goals throughout. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a bye week and this team has to come into this game with a lot of confidence. Washington has found ways to lose games this year with Kirk Cousins seemingly turning it over at the worst times all the time. Jameis Winston has looked solid in most games since a bad opener. Tampa Bay's defense is much improved from a year ago. Washington's Jay Gruden isn't a very good coach, and I wonder if he won't be fired soon. In a game that should be close all the way, these points are the way to go.

Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog in the first game of a back to back road scheduling spot following a straight up win. The Redskins are 0-6 ATS at home off back to back road games. Even more telling, Washington is 5-24-2 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 36-5 angle. Take Tampa Bay. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New England Patriots are playing like the best team in the NFL right now, but I still don't believe they should be eight point favorites here against a high quality Jets team. It seems like the oddsmakers aren't trusting this Jets team yet. Todd Bowles has done a tremendous job with this team. He's an upgrade from Rex Ryan, and the Jets offense is far better than it has been in recent years. Ryan Fitzpatrick is an upgrade from Geno Smith, and the Jets offensive line is dominating right now. The Jets have the best corners in the NFL. If anyone in the league is going to slow down the Patriots, it should be the Jets.

New England is off an emotional win at Indianapolis in a game that they clearly wanted badly, so I believe New York is in the better spot here. 

The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. the AFC. The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 during week 7. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 ATS last 4 vs. the AFC East. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 after giving up 250 yards or less last game. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. A 35-0 angle. Take the Jets. 

*3 Star NFL Home Underdog Play* The Minnesota Vikings running game is their only real offense right now. There's no doubt that Adrian Peterson is amazing and he'll get his yards here, but Detroit's play of late suggests they are better than their record. I've also been keeping a close eye on the line movement here. The shift toward the Lions with the public backing the Vikings suggests Detroit is a sharp money play. This is the type of play that can be hard to make, but in the long run you'll be ahead if you make these plays every time. Minnesota is a different team on the road and Detroit gets revenge from their early season meeting. Take Detroit. 

*4 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Pittsburgh Steelers will likely go with Landry Jones here. They moved Tyler Murphy to active at QB which suggests that Big Ben will probably not play here. With Jones as the expected signal caller, I think the Steelers do a lot of running the football. Kansas City always tries to run the football a lot because their passing game is so poor. Jeremy Maclin is dinged up which hurts the passing game even more. Pittsburgh's defense has given up a lot of yards through the air, but they are very good against the run. Without Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs just don't have offensive weapons. Both teams rank in the bottom 5 in the NFL in terms of pace of play. 

The under is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after giving up more than 350 total yards of offense. The under is 6-0-1 in the Steelers last 7 following a win. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the AFC. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Patriots/Colts Sunday Night CASH* The New England Patriots offense has been unstoppable this year. Do you really think the Patriots are going to want to let off the gas against the Indianapolis Colts? Remember, this is the team that started the whole Deflategate issues after their loss in the playoffs. New England should be out for blood here. Tom Brady and this Patriots offense are clearly capable of putting up a huge number here.

At the same time, Andrew Luck is expected back for the Colts, and the New England defense has looked shaky against good offenses this year. The Patriots secondary is a question mark for me. I think the Colts can put up plenty of points in this one as well.

I think there's a good chance this game gets into the 60's. With the line this low, I see a lot of value on the over.

The over is 4-0 in the Patriots last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. An 11-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks offense just hasn't been able to get going this year. Even in last week's game in Cincinnati, Seattle only put up 17 points on offense. They got 7 of their points from a defensive touchdown. Here, they'll take on a Carolina Panthers defense that is elite. Luke Kuechly is back for Carolina, and that is huge for this team. Carolina is very good at stopping the run to start with, and with Kuechly they'll be even better.

Seattle has no rhythm in the passing game. The Seahawks have to run it to be successful, but Marshawn Lynch is still banged up. Lynch will likely play here, but he is less than 100 percent, and he's up against a great defense.

Cam Newton has been very good so far this year, but Carolina hasn't played a defense even close to as good as the Seahawks. I think Seattle shuts down the Panthers running game here and forces them to beat them through the air, which I don't think they can do. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Denver Broncos are a team I've looked to play the under with as much as possible, and I'm going to keep doing it here. Denver's defense is arguably the best in the NFL. They have been solid against the run and spectacularly against the pass. Cleveland's offensive line should have a lot of trouble with this Denver defensive front. 

Peyton Manning hasn't been sharp at all this year, and the Browns secondary is pretty good even without Joe Haden in the lineup. Another very important factor for this game is the weather. The temperature is expected to be in the low 40's with a chance of some sprinkles during the game and a 10 to 15 mph wind. That isn't good weather for the offenses at all.

Look for a close game where field goals are more common than touchdowns. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Minnesota Vikings didn't look good at all in week one against San Francisco, and I think the perception of this team is still too low because of that poor showing. Minnesota has played well since that game, and the Vikings had a bye week to get ready for this game. 

Kansas City has been a big disappointment this year, and I have to wonder how things will get better for the Chiefs now that they are without Jamaal Charles for the year. Kansas City is a team that lacks playmakers on offense to start with, and Charles is really their only consistent playmaker. Now, they have to rely much more heavily on a very shaky Alex Smith and the passing game.

I think Coach Zimmer will have Minnesota ready to play, and I think the Vikings win by a touchdown or more. 

Kansas City is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. The Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 14-1 angle. Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs both have strong defenses. Alex Smith and Teddy Bridgewater are both what I consider to be game managers. Adrian Peterson is obviously a game breaker for the Vikings, but the Chiefs are without their game breaker in Jamaal Charles.

Both of these teams run the football a lot, so we'll see a lot of running clock in this game. The defenses are likely to dare the quarterbacks to beat them, and I don't think it will happen very often. Without Charles, the Chiefs defense becomes one of the worst in the NFL. 

The under is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 in October. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on turf. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The San Francisco 49ers defense looked really bad at Pittsburgh in week two. Still, remember that was an awful spot for the 49ers after a late Monday night game and then playing in the Eastern time zone with an early start time on Sunday. Other than that game, the 49ers defense has been a little better than league average. The Niners defense should be able to at least slow down the Giants in this one.

Colin Kaepernick has been awful this year, and San Francisco really needs to be able to run the ball to be able to be successful on offense. Who is the number one rushing defense in the NFL? The New York Giants. The Giants are allowing less than 70 yards per game on the ground. Look for the Giants defense to do a good job slowing down the Niners rushing attack. That means Kaepernick has to beat them with his arm. I don't think that will happen.

The under is 21-8-2 in the 49ers last 31 games on turf. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Oddsmaker ERROR* The Arizona Cardinals started 3-0 before dropping their last game. Arizona outplayed St. Louis last week, but they couldn't convert in the red zone, and turnovers cost them as well. The Detroit Lions were less than a yard away from likely winning in Seattle last weekend. The way they lost was particularly tough to take with the fumble and the missed call by the officials on the batted ball. Detroit isn't going to get to the playoffs, and I have to think it will be hard for them to get up for this game. 

The Lions have a short week of prep for this one. They were on the West Coast late Monday night and now play a good Arizona team on Sunday here. The Lions aren't as good as the Cardinals to start with, and with the scheduling spot and the emotions of losing the way they did last week, I'm taking Arizona.

Arizona is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing 15 points or less. A 14-1 angle. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Chicago Bears picked up a win at home over the Oakland Raiders last week. Does that make me any higher on the Bears? No. The Bears should win a game like that. Oakland was coming off a very rare road win and fell apart late in the game. The Raiders are improved, but they still aren't a good team. Kansas City comes into this game at 1-3, and the Chiefs absolutely have to have this game. Kansas City is a good team, and they have played a brutal schedule thus far. Here's their chance to break out of a slump in a big way. 

Jay Cutler has never been very good with pressure on him, and Kansas City will bring the heat in this one. Cutler's Bears are 4-14-1 ATS after winning a game while their opponent is coming off a double digit loss. Another nice statistic here, since 1980 1-3 NFL home favorites coming off 3 straight losses facing an opponent off a win are an impressive 10-1-1 ATS.

The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday's Best Bet* The Denver Broncos are not the same team they have been in the past. Denver is a defensive juggernaut this year. This team is stacked with talent on the defensive side of the ball. They can get after the quarterback as well as anyone in the league, and they have a good amount of run stuffers as well. Minnesota's defense is a unit I believe will continue to improve. Mike Zimmer is a great defensive mind, and I don't see his teams having too much trouble on defense.

Peyton Manning is clearly regressing at this point in his career and Teddy Bridgewater has struggled in the past when pressured. I think both quarterbacks will be under pressure in this one. Denver is no longer the fast paced offense they used to be, and Minnesota is going to run the football a lot here.

The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 250 yards or more last game. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 road games. A 13-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* I'll admit that Andrew Luck now being listed as questionable is certainly a concern here. He was listed as probable when I initially made this selection. I still do believe it's more likely that he will play. The positive for the Colts is they do have a solid backup compared to some other teams in the league. Additionally, this Jacksonville defense isn't good, and they'll give up a lot of points often this year. On the other hand, I believe the Jacksonville offense is much better than it has been in previous years. Yeldon gives them a playmaker at running back and Blake Bortles is progressing well at the quarterback spot. Both of these teams can play with tempo as well. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Buffalo Bills are coming off a great win at Miami last week. Buffalo has looked really good in two games so far this year and really bad in the other. The thing about Buffalo in recent years is they haven't been good at building on their momentum. Buffalo is 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS win. Even worse, they are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 following a straight up win. The New York Giants made some key errors that have them only 1-2 now, but this team has actually played well for the majority of the season. Eli Manning has been sharp and the Giants defense has looked great. 

Buffalo will be without LaSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins in this one. That's big because those are two big playmakers who take pressure off Tyrod Taylor. The Bills defense is very good, but I'm not convinced about this offense yet.

The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards last game. They are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 on turf. The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 17-2 winning trend. Take the Giants. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night CASH* The Denver Broncos are a totally different team than they have been in recent years. Gone is the fast paced offense where they are going to air it out constantly. Denver is slowing the game down and winning with their defense. The Broncos have assembled a tremendous defense. I believe Denver has one of the five best defenses in the NFL. Peyton Manning isn't a bad quarterback now, but he's clearly not what he used to be. Detroit's offense has more question marks now, and Matt Stafford will play through pain in this one. Look for Denver's pass rush to really bother him in this one. The under is 16-6 in the Lions last 22 games. The public taking the over (as normal, especially for a primetime game) has given us a nice value play. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Baltimore Ravens are in a must win situation here. They have started 0-2 after two very tough losses on the road. They return home, a place where they have had a bunch of success in the past. Cincinnati is 2-0 and the Bengals are feeling good about themselves. Andy Dalton has looked better so far this year, but a bad showing from Dalton is going to happen soon. The guy just isn't reliable at quarterback. How has he done against Baltimore in his career? The Ravens have intercepted him 12 times, which is more than any other team in the NFL. The Bengals defense isn't what they were a couple years ago with Mike Zimmer as defensive coordinator. Baltimore's offense should be able to get going here.

John Harbaugh is a very good coach, and Baltimore knows how important this game is. This number is surprisingly low, and I believe it is an overreaction to how these teams have played in week one and two. Take Baltimore. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars meet on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville isn't a good team this year, but I do believe they are a much improved team. Blake Bortles and this passing game are improving quickly. Why is that important? Because as tremendous as the Patriots offense is, New England has a lot of holes in the secondary, and I do think the Jaguars can put up some points here. New England's offense has looked like a well-oiled machine this year and the Patriots are unlikely to be slowed down by the Jags defense here. The over is 35-16 in the Patriots last 51 games. Jacksonville has been picking up the tempo and playing quickly, especially when behind. They should be behind throughout in this one, and I think both teams get plenty of scoring chances here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Seattle Seahawks defense was surprisingly bad last week. Chancellor was a key loss, but I didn't think the Rams offense would do as much as they did last week. The Green Bay Packers have obviously had this game circled for a long time. That playoff loss in Seattle was absolutely brutal. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers haven't forgotten that game, and this should be as motivated as you will ever see an NFL team in a regular season game. Seattle losing last week initially kept me hesitant to play this game, but at only a field goal I can't pass on this one. The Seahawks secondary isn't nearly as good as they were last year. Seattle also has offensive line issues far worse than they had at any time last season. The Packers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 home games. Green Bay gets some revenge in the spotlight on Sunday night. Take Green Bay. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Miami Dolphins offense did very little last week in Washington. In fact, it was a punt return TD that was the key play for the Dolphins in that win. Jacksonville's offense was awful last week against the Panthers. The Jaguars offensive front gave up five sacks in that game, and the Dolphins defensive line is going to have pressure on Blake Bortles all day in this one. Suh is a huge addition to this defensive line and Cameron Wake is still an elite pass rusher for Miami. Jacksonville's defense is better than a year ago. Miami lacks big playmakers on offense. The Dolphins aren't a big play team, rather they will generally have slow and methodical drives that eat up a bunch of time. I think both defenses play well in a game where I think both teams have to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. 

The under is 37-17 in Miami's last 54 road games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Miami. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a tremendous spot here and the San Francisco 49ers couldn't be in a worse spot. San Francisco surprised a lot of people, myself included, with an impressive win late Monday night at home over Minnesota. The 49ers were done no favors by the schedule makers here. They must play a game at 10 am their time on Sunday after playing late on Monday night. 

On the other hand, Pittsburgh has 10 days between games. The Steelers offense looked great at New England, they just couldn't finish their drives. I think this is the perfect opportunity for them to get on track. This is a classic overreaction from the oddsmakers and the betting public to one good game from San Francisco. The Niners are still down from last year, and the Steelers have the type of team that could win the AFC North.

Lay the points with the Steelers here. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star NFL Eagles/Falcons Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Eagles fast pace offense is well documented. Atlanta's defense will improve in their new scheme, but it is going to take time. Philadelphia's offense is going to be a really tough test in week one. Bradford looked great in the Chip Kelly system in the preseason, and should do well against a questionable Atlanta secondary. The Eagles defense wasn't very good last year, and I don't think they'll be very good this year either. Matt Ryan has been amazing in the dome in his career, and I think he has a big game here. He has some new weapons, and I think Tevin Coleman will prove to be a very good player in this system. 

The over is 6-1 in the Falcons last 7 September games. The over is 4-0 in the Eagles last 4 Monday night games. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Washington Redskins have a history of starting slowly, and I don't see any reason to expect anything less than another slow start from them this year. There's all sorts of team chemistry problems here. Kirk Cousins still has to prove he can be good in the regular season. The Miami Dolphins defense got a lot better in the offseason, and with Ryan Tannehill's progression throughout the course of last year, I think this Miami offense could be pretty good this year. Miller is an underrated back who does a lot of things well. The better defense, the better offense, and the team with more confidence. Lay the points. Take Miami.