Sports Picks & Predictions

NFL Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-16-22	Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 50.5		9-19	Loss	-105	62 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Seattle Seahawks have been far better on offense than anyone expected they would be. Geno Smith's tremendous play at quarterback is a big reason for the success of the Seattle offense. Geno Smith grades out as the #1 quarterback in terms of PFF rating so far this year in the NFL. Of course he isn't the best QB in the league, but he is a lot better than expected. He has a very good group of wide receivers who should be able to get open against a questionable Arizona secondary. Seattle is second in the NFL in yards per play so far this year behind only the Buffalo Bills. As good as the Seattle offense has been, the Seahawks defense is the worst in the NFL. Seattle is dead last in YPP allowed at 6.6. Arizona has struggled offensively in their last three games, but they have played three quality defenses. The Seattle defense is a much weaker unit. I expect Kyler Murray to have a good game in this one. I expect both quarterbacks to have a big game against defenses who give up too many explosive plays. Take the over.
10-16-22	Panthers +10 v. Rams		10-24	Loss	-110	38 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play on Panthers The Carolina Panthers fired Matt Rhule. According to many rumors, Rhule had lost the locker room in Carolina. The Panthers are a talented defense, and I think they could give the Rams quite a bit of trouble here. Teams who just fired their coach are 17-9 ATS in the last 26 in their first game following that firing. The Carolina Panthers are in this spot on Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams are dead last in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. Their offensive line is banged up, and they are badly missing Andrew Whitworth after his retirement. Matt Stafford looks like he is playing through arm problems again as well. PJ Walker starts here for the Carolina Panthers. I'm not going to pretend I think Walker is a good NFL quarterback, but Baker Mayfield had been very bad as well. The Panthers should be able to run the ball some here on a mediocre run defense. The Rams aren't the same team that won it all at the end of last season. This line is too high. Take Carolina.
10-16-22	Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 42.5		27-34	Loss	-110	117 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Indianapolis Colts haven't had a game all season thus far with more than 41 total points. The first game between these two was 24-0 Jaguars. The Colts offense is a mess right now. The offensive line is very bad, injuries have magnified their weaknesses, and Matt Ryan playing behind a bad offensive line has been a mess. Jonathan Taylor is questionable for this game, and if he plays he won't be at full strength. The Jaguars defense is 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Jaguars offense has looked bad the last couple weeks. Jacksonville has been struggling with opposing defenses defending Trevor Lawrence with the two high safeties. Lawrence is making poor decisions and this offense has been very inefficient. The Colts have been bad on offense, but their defense is 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed so far this year. I expect a tight lower scoring battle in this one. Take the under.
10-10-22	Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51.5		29-30	Win	100	18 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Kansas City Chiefs have a top three offense in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs lit up what I still believe is a very good defense in Tampa Bay last weekend. They put up 41 points in that contest. Kansas City has scored 32 points or more in each of their last five meetings with the Raiders. The Chiefs have far too many weapons for this bottom ten Raiders defense to slow them down consistently. The Raiders have a pretty good quarterback in Derek Carr and he now has a great receiver in Adams on the outside. Las Vegas has put up 396 and 385 yards in their last two games. The Raiders have a good offensive line and I like Josh Jacobs in the backfield as well. Kansas City's defense is no better than mediocre. The weather conditions for this one are perfect. I would expect to see both teams moving the ball well in this one. Take the over.
10-09-22	Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 42.5		22-10	Win	100	38 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Dallas Cowboys will have Cooper Rush at quarterback again here. Rush has done a good job at the helm. The team has been more cautious with their offense though. There have been a lot of shorter passes and more rushing plays than I would expect to see with Dak Prescott at quarterback. The Cowboys are relying too much on Lamb at wide receiver. That could be an issue as he lines up against an elite cornerback in this one. The Cowboys defense ranks in the top five in the NFL in nearly every statistical category. The Rams offense ranks second last in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. Matthew Stafford has struggled mightily through the season. Tony Pollard is questionable for this game and he has played very well this year. The Cowboys offensive line is also badly banged up. The Rams lack secondary options for Cooper Kupp as well. I like this one to stay low scoring. Take the under.
10-09-22	Dolphins -3 v. Jets		17-40	Loss	-120	115 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play on Dolphins The New York Jets are coming off a comeback win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers led for much of the game, but the Jets came from behind to win late. The Jets were really handed that game by the Steelers 4 interceptions thrown. Pittsburgh isn't a very good team in their current state either. The Dolphins were 3-0 going into last week and then lost at Cincinnati. The Bengals didn't outplay the Dolphins by that much, and it was really turnovers that stopped the Dolphins from having a shot at winning in that one. Miami has Teddy Bridgewater going here. Is he really even a step down from Tua? Bridgewater is a top three backup quarterback in the NFL. He has Hill and Waddle to get the ball too and a pretty good offensive line in front of him. The Dolphins defense is ultra aggressive with their blitzing and the Jets offensive line is badly banged up right now. The Jets can slow down the run, but their secondary is a problem area. I don't see them stopping Miami enough here. Miami had extra time to prepare for this game off that Thursday contest against Cincinnati. A good bounce back spot. Take Miami.
10-09-22	Titans v. Washington Commanders OVER 42.5		21-17	Loss	-110	12 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Washington Commanders put up 28 and 27 points on the Jaguars and Lions in the first couple weeks of the year. They have put up only 8 and 10 points against the Eagles and the Cowboys the last couple weeks. Washington's Carson Wentz has good enough pass catchers in McLaurin and Samuel and the rest of the group to do some damage against a Titans secondary that is one of the worst in the NFL. Washington's numbers from the last two weeks mean little since both the Eagles and the Cowboys defenses are very strong. The Titans gave up 21 points even against a weak Giants offense and they allowed 5.8 ypp against the Colts and 6.1 ypp against the Raiders. The Titans offense does a good job on scripted drives because they are well coached. That should led to early points here against a Washington defense that I believe isn't very well coached. Ryan Tannehill doesn't have the weapons he has had in recent seasons, but he still has enough. The Titans linebacker unit has been hit with a rash of injuries that should slow the defense down some here. The over is hitting at a clip of 59% dating back to 2004 in weeks 3 through 5 in the NFL when the total is 43 or lower and the wind is 7 mph or lower on average. The forecast calls for 7 mph here. Take the over.
10-02-22	Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 45.5		41-31	Win	100	18 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Tampa Bay Bucs will get Mike Evans back here. Evans is a star receiver and him back in the lineup will help Tom Brady a bunch. Tampa Bay's offensive line is finally getting healthier as well. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are both leaning toward being able to play here but they will test things out in warmup before the game. They would be a big bonus for the offense as well. Kansas City's offense is among the best in the league. They have been the most consistent offense in the NFL the last couple years. Tampa Bay's defense is good, but the Bucs haven't faced an offense nearly as good as this Chiefs offense. The Kansas City defense is still a weakness. The Chiefs give up too many big plays and their secondary isn't deep enough. Brady should have a better game here with improved health for the Tampa Bay offense. A total of 45.5 is awfully low for these two quarterbacks with as many weapons around them as they have. Take the over.
10-02-22	Browns v. Falcons OVER 47		20-23	Loss	-110	37 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Over This is an early season game being played in a dome. Early season (September and October games) contests with a spread of 7 points or less either way (this one fits) being played in a dome are 225-180 to the over (55.6% overs) since 2004. Atlanta has scored 27, 27, and 26 points in their three games so far this season. The Falcons offense has been working very well with Marcus Mariota at the helm. I've been impressed with their play calling early in the season. Cleveland has scored 29, 26, and 30 points in their three games this year. Jacoby Brissett has been excellent at quarterback. The Browns have the best running back in the NFL in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is a great backup. The Browns offensive line should dominate on the line of scrimmage here. The Browns defense is badly banged up. Myles Garrett was in a car accident and is a game time decision. Clowney is also a game time decision. Denzel Ward will try to play, but is less than 100 percent. The Falcons defense has allowed 23 points or more in every game, and the Browns may be the best offense they have played yet (or the Rams who scored 31 points). I like both teams to score throughout this one. Take the over.
10-02-22	Seahawks +3.5 v. Lions		48-45	Win	100	12 h 40 m	Show
3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week The Seattle Seahawks aren't a good team, but they have played better than expected so far this year. Detroit has played well so far this year, but the Lions are much more banged up than the Seahawks. Detroit will be without D'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and DJ Chark on offense. That gives Jared Goff far fewer top notch weapons to work with. Goff is a mediocre quarterback who can play pretty well with a lot of talent around him. He'll be short on that talent around him here. Tracy Walker was arguably the Lions best defensive player and he is hurt now. The Lions defense has been really weak so far this year. They have allowed 26 points or more in all three of their contests. Geno Smith has been pretty good so far this year for Seattle. He isn't a really good QB by any means, but he has good receivers and this Lions secondary is weak. This should be a close contest. Take Seattle.
09-29-22	Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5		15-27	Win	100	20 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play on Bengals The Cincinnati Bengals started the season 0-2. They were beaten by the Pittsburgh Steelers at home after they finished -5 in turnover margin and missed an extra point and short field goal that would have won the game. The Bengals did win this past Sunday in New York against the Jets, but their backs are still against the wall in this one. The AFC North is a good division. The Bengals schedule gets brutal late in the season. They really cannot afford to fall to 1-3. The Miami Dolphins are 3-0. They beat the New England Patriots in week one when the Pats had three turnovers to none for the Dolphins. In game two, they made a massive come from behind effort and beat Baltimore on the road 42-38. The Ravens had 8.8 yards per play, but failed to finish that game out. Last week, the Dolphins beat the Bills 21-19 in Miami. That game was played in 100 degree heat and the Dolphins defense was on the field for 90 plays. The Bills outgained the Dolphins by more than 2 to 1, and yet it was the Dolphins who edged out a misleading win. Miami is a good team, but this is a brutal spot for them. This game means a lot more to the Bengals, and the Bengals are the healthier team coming into this game. Tua is banged up (he will likely try to play), Xavien Howard and Jaylen Waddle are questionable, and the offensive line is banged up as well. This is a white out game with the Bengals wearing their new white tiger helmets. Cincinnati's Paycor Stadium will be rocking here. I like the Bengals to be well prepared for this one. Take Cincinnati.
09-25-22	49ers -1.5 v. Broncos		10-11	Loss	-108	25 h 39 m	Show
4 Star Play on the 49ers Trey Lance was a starter at the beginning of the season, but for him out with an injury, Jimmy Garoppolo has taken over under center. I consider Garoppolo an upgrade over Lance at this point in his career. The big news from San Francisco is George Kittle is expected to play in this one after being out with an injury. Kittle makes a massive difference in this 49ers offensive scheme. Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett have had a very rough start to their time with the Denver Broncos. The Broncos offense has stalled out in the red zone time after time. Denver’s play calling on offense has left a lot to be desired. Kyle Shanahan is one of the better coaches in the NFL and I trust him to have his team ready for this Sunday night showdown. The 49ers well balanced offense has multiple running backs who can beat you with a big play at any time. The 49ers have far less question marks surrounding them at this point. Take San Francisco.
09-25-22	Bengals -6 v. Jets		27-12	Win	100	17 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play on Cincinnati The Cincinnati Bengals have started 0-2 and they have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL so far this season. Still, the Bengals have one of the most talented rosters in the league. They have faced two of the best pass rushing defenses in their first 2 games. In this game, they go against a bottom five pass rush in the NFL. The New York Jets are coming off a stunning win in Cleveland. The Jets trailed all the way until storming back to win thanks to an onside kick recovery in the final minute. Now the Jets are feeling good about themselves, but I still consider this one of the worst overall teams in the NFL. Situationally, this is a good spot for the Bengals. Cincinnati simply cannot afford to go 0-3 to start the season, and I would expect their best performance of the year so far. Joe Burrow has tremendous weapons on the outside and the Jets aren’t a good secondary. Take Cincinnati.
09-25-22	Bills v. Dolphins OVER 53		19-21	Loss	-110	17 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins showed their impressive fire power in their come from behind win over the Ravens last weekend. Tua Tagovailoa has two star receivers on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The new Dolphins offense scheme is allowing Tua to take more shots down the field. The Buffalo Bills offense has looked like a well oiled machine this season. Josh Allen is playing like a quarterback with a chip on his shoulder. He has a good offensive line in front of him, and a group of excellent wide receivers. Buffalo is third in the NFL averaging 6.7 yards per play. While the Bills have a quality defense at full strength, they are expected to be without 4 starters on defense in this game. The Miami defense is aggressive, but that should also give Allen the chance to beat them with some explosive plays down field. Take the over.
09-22-22	Steelers v. Browns UNDER 38.5		17-29	Loss	-110	27 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This total is set very low, but it is set very low for good reasons. The Pittsburgh offense hasn't been able to do much of anything this year. Pittsburgh won in Cincinnati solely because they forced 5 turnovers. The Steelers couldn't get anything going against New England either. Pittsburgh is averaging just 4.3 yards per play on the season (30th out of 32 teams). Cleveland's offense has been pretty good, but they haven't played a good defense yet. The Browns are very limited in what they can do offensively with Brissett under center. Cleveland is a very good running team, but I think the Steelers will load up the box in this one. A huge key to this game should be the weather. Cleveland is expected to have 18 mph sustained winds through this game, and wind gusts of 35 mph during the game are expected. This kind of weather definitely changes the game. What does it lead to? It leads to both teams running the football more than normal and being more conservative in their play calling. That is certainly a help to the defenses. The Browns and Steelers have played many tight low scoring games against each other in the past. The weather adds in another big plus here. Both teams have weak quarterbacks and aren't very explosive on offense. Take the under here.
09-19-22	Vikings v. Eagles -1.5		7-24	Win	100	90 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play on Eagles The Philadelphia Eagles might have the best offensive line in the NFL. Philadelphia is likely to be able to run on just about everyone this year. The Vikings defense looked very good in week one, but I think that was more about Green Bay being shorthanded and playing very poorly than anything else. Jalen Hurts is a weapon at quarterback, and I expect him to have a big game here. He is backed by two really good running backs and is led by that great offensive line. The Eagles upgraded on defense with Jordan Davis and James Bradberry. I expect Davis to be a problem for the Vikings offensive line here. Perception is awfully high of the Vikings after their blowout win in week one. I think they are a good team, but they aren't in the same talent class as the Eagles. Look for the Eagles to make a statement at home here. Take Philadelphia.
09-18-22	Bears v. Packers -10		10-27	Win	100	18 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play on Packers The Chicago Bears averaged 3.6 yards per play last week. They were terrible in the first half, but they were able to come back and upset the San Francisco 49ers thanks to help from the weather conditions and a poor performance from Trey Lance. George Kittle was missing and that slowed the 49ers as well. The Green Bay Packers were humbled by the Minnesota Vikings in game one. The Packers had a couple key drops that could have changed the game. Aaron Rodgers has absolutely owned the Chicago Bears. Rodgers has just one turnover in his last five games against the Bears. This is a Bears defense that is definitely weaker than it was a few years ago too. Rodgers should have Lazard back for this one, and the Dillon and Jones are both very good running backs. The Packers defensive line is one of the best in the NFL. Who has a really weak offensive front? The Chicago Bears. Justin Fields should be under all sorts of pressure throughout this game. Green Bay should bounce back nicely here in a big spot. Take the Packers.
09-18-22	Cardinals v. Raiders OVER 51.5		29-23	Win	100	63 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Las Vegas Raiders offense upgraded in a big way in the offseason. Devante Adams is a top five receiver in the country. The Raiders now have Adams and Darren Waller as elite pass catching options for Derek Carr. Josh Jacobs is a very good all purpose running back. Carr is very capable and he should have a good season with the improved talent around him. Arizona plays quickly and the Cardinals still have enough weapons to score plenty. Kyler Murray is a bit inconsistent, but running quarterbacks have hurt this Raiders defense in the past. Murray is well known for late scoring drives when the team is down, and they are a clear underdog here. Early season games played in a dome have been good overs in the past. Specifically, early season (September or October games) that are non-divisional and have a spread of 7 points or fewer are 56% to the over since 2004. This one fits that system. Take the over here.
09-18-22	Bucs v. Saints UNDER 44.5		20-10	Win	100	10 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tampa Bay Bucs have a top three defense in the NFL. In fact, it might be the best defense in the NFL. Tampa Bay should be able to get pressure in the backfield against a Saints offensive line that is a relative weakness this year. They won't have to deal with Alvin Kamara, who is expected to miss this game due to a rib injury. The Saints have really slowed down Tom Brady and the Bucs well in the recent past. The Bucs aren't nearly as good on offense now as they were in those games either. It is still Brady and they'll bounce back some over time, but the Bucs offensive line is now a weakness. Godwin is out and just about every other pass catcher is at least banged up some here. Without Kamara, the Saints have a weak running back group, but they are likely to still want to run the ball quite a bit. Look for both defenses to come up with tackles for a loss in key parts of this contest. Take the under.
09-11-22	Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 46		7-20	Win	100	309 h 35 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The New England Patriots offense was a mess in the preseason. I know it is the preseason and you don't want to overreact, but I don't like the changes in the offensive coaching staff in the offseason. The Patriots offense has been having far too many miscommunications and big negative plays. This isn't a roster that is developed in a way to get big plays on third and long. They can't get behind the sticks on a consistent basis. Miami's pass rush is excellent, and I think the Dolphins get into the backfield a lot in this one. The Miami Dolphins offense did add a major weapon in Hill in the offseason, but there are still many questions about this offense as well. How will Tua play under pressure against a good New England defense? Tua isn't a guy who likes to take a bunch of shots downfield either. The Patriots secondary is above average. Both of these defenses are above average. Both offenses tend to stay away from taking big chances. I see a lot of moving clock and the defenses coming up with big stops here. Take the under.
09-11-22	Ravens -6.5 v. Jets		24-9	Win	100	43 h 4 m	Show
3 Star Play on Ravens The Baltimore Ravens weren't healthy at all for most of last year. The team underachieved compared to expectations going into the season. I think that has a lot of people too low on them coming into this season. Lamar Jackson is one of a kind when it comes to playmakers in the NFL. Jackson should be highly motivated to prove himself for a new contract. He still has great tight ends and the offensive line is solid as well. They go against a Jets defense that is prone to giving up the big play. Jackson is about as good as it gets in the NFL when it comes to creating explosive plays. The Baltimore defense should be much improved this year. The Ravens secondary is very deep and they aren't dealing with the injuries they had last season. The pass rush should also be an area of strength. The Jets offense is led by Joe Flacco. His decision making is very weak, and he is clearly one of the worst signal callers in the league at this point in his career. He doesn't have many weapons around him, and he is capable of throwing a pick six at any time. Take Baltimore here.
09-11-22	Saints v. Falcons OVER 42.5		27-26	Win	100	43 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The New Orleans Saints have a lot more weapons to work with this year. Chris Olave is a great add on the outside. He's a reliable receiver who has both speed and great hands. Michael Thomas is questionable for this one, but beat writers say he is progressing toward probable for this one. Alvin Kamara is cleared to play and he's such a great threat in both the running and passing game. Jameis Winston is back and healthy, and he is a big upgrade in the passing game from what the Saints had late last year. Atlanta's Marcus Mariota played well in the preseason. The Falcons offense was really crisp most of the time in the preseason. The Saints defense is likely being overrated by many. The safeties are down from a year ago even with Mathieu here. While the Saints defense was good a year ago, their overall numbers were also a bit skewed because of their slow ball control offense. The defense will give up more points this year. This is an early season game played in a dome. The angle has been strong to the over especially with a close spread. When the home team is favored by less than 7 or is the underdog in September or October dome overs are at 56.2%. Take the over.
01-30-22	Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 53.5		27-24	Loss	-110	158 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Kansas City Chiefs offense is back. Kansas City wasn't the offensive juggernaut everyone expected earlier this year, but they had a lot of new faces on the offensive line. They have gradually improved throughout the year. Also, Andy Reid is getting more aggressive with his play calling in the playoffs. It is working in a big way. Kansas City had 478 yards and 42 points against a decent Steelers defense. They then put up 42 points and 552 yards in an overtime win over the #1 ranked defense of the Buffalo Bills. The Cincinnati Bengals have some excellent weapons on offense. Cincinnati's Joe Burrow is a star at quarterback. Burrow is an extremely accurate passer and a good decision maker. Surrounding him with Mixon, Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Uzomah gives the Bengals excellent options on offense. As long as the offensive line can be decent, I think the Bengals can score quite a few points here. These two teams met in Cincinnati last month. The Bengals won 34-31 as that game sailed over the total. The Bengals had 7.5 ypp and the Chiefs had 7.1 ypp. The offenses couldn't be stopped. The Bengals and Chiefs defenses are better than last season, but they aren't good enough to stop the opposing offenses here. Take the over.
01-23-22	Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54		36-42	Win	100	15 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs square off in Kansas City on Sunday night. This is the time of the year that you always want to be careful about the weather, but the current forecast for this one is for a temperature in the 30's with winds of about 10 mph. The Buffalo Bills offense sputtered at times throughout the regular season, but they did have a bunch of success against the Chiefs earlier in the year. Josh Allen is playing well of late, and the Bills have too many weapons on the outside for the Chiefs secondary to contain. Kansas City's offense has improved late in the season. It's still very hard to stop Mahomes with Kelce, Hill, and the rest of their weapons. The last couple meetings between these two have gone over the total. I think we see a back and forth affair here. There is absolutely a chance for overtime in this one as well. The defenses are improved, but the offenses are still better. Take the over.
01-16-22	49ers v. Cowboys OVER 50.5		23-17	Loss	-110	63 h 46 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Dallas Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in yards per play. They rank 6th in the NFL in DVOA on offense. Dak Prescott has been up and down this year, but he has a stellar group of receivers and two solid running backs. The 49ers secondary is arguably the worst secondary of any team in the NFL playoffs this year. Dallas should be able to take advantage of this unit. San Francisco's offense has been good with Jimmy G under center this year. I think he is an underrated quarterback who does a good job spreading the ball around to his weapons. George Kittle is one of the most dangerous pass catchers in the NFL. The Cowboys are likely to have a hard time with him. Both of these defenses rank in the bottom half of the NFL in big plays allowed. This game is played in a dome and playoff games in a dome have been great for over bettors. How good? The last 43 games in a dome in the NFL postseason- 29 of them have gone over and only 14 have stayed under. Take the over here.
01-09-22	Patriots v. Dolphins +6.5		24-33	Win	100	25 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play on Dolphins The New England Patriots want to win this game and stay on track for the playoffs, but the things they need to happen to jump in a big way in the standings are quite unlikely. Buffalo isn't likely at all to lose to the Jets. They are a 16.5 point favorite for a reason. A Kansas City or Tennessee loss could help them as well, but both of those teams are favored by double digits. The Patriots have far more injury concerns than do the Dolphins. New England has a long list of guys questionable for this game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Patriots rest some guys in the second half if the scenarios where they can move up aren't coming to fruition. The biggest game for them is Jets/Bills, and they will keep an eye on the scoreboard for that game. The Dolphins have shown they will play hard for Coach Flores all the way to the finish before. I expect them to do it again here. This is a game with a really low total and we are getting nearly a full touchdown. I expect a hard fought battle just as it was in week one when the Dolphins won by one point. Take Miami.
01-02-22	Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 50.5		31-34	Win	100	12 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cincinnati Bengals have found a franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow. As long as the offensive line protects him to some degree here, I do think Burrow and this group of elite pass catchers can pick up some chunk plays on the Chiefs secondary. Kansas City's defense has clearly played better in recent weeks, but the Chiefs defense has faced some terrible offenses. They also have caught opponents when they are shorthanded. The Bengals offense is playing very well right now and they are quite healthy. Cincinnati's defense is missing two key starters at linebacker. The Bengals defense didn't look very good against the Ravens last week with Josh Johnson at the helm. Patrick Mahomes gets back Kelce and the Chiefs offense has improved a lot in recent weeks. I don't trust the Bengals defense to be able to slow them down. If either of these teams gets down much and starts taking a lot of shots and playing quickly, it will help the over in a big way. Take the over.
01-02-22	Dolphins v. Titans UNDER 40.5		3-34	Win	100	10 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Miami Dolphins defense has been tremendous of late. Granted, they haven't played a tough schedule of offenses. Still, they have dominated the offenses put in front of them. In its current form, the Tennessee Titans offense isn't very good. Ryan Tannehill isn't playing with much confidence, and Derrick Henry is badly missed. The Titans are dead last in the NFL in 20 plus yard plays. They aren't explosive at all right now. Miami's offense isn't any good either. Tua is inconsistent and relies on Waddle far too much. The Titans defense ranks top ten in the NFL across the board in the past five games. The weather here could play a role too. Winds and possible rain mixed with snow is expected to come in during this game. During the middle of the game the sustained winds are expected at about 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That will just increase as the game gets into the fourth quarter. Take the under.
01-02-22	Bucs -13 v. Jets		28-24	Loss	-110	10 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play on Bucs The Tampa Bay Bucs have the best offense in the NFL. Yes, they are shorthanded right now, but with Brady under center and still some pretty good pass weapons on the outside and a great tight end, this is an elite offense. The New York Jets have the worst defense in the NFL. The secondary is a major problem. That isn't an issue you want to have with Brady and the Bucs coming to town. Tampa Bay needs to win for playoff positioning, and this Jets defense looks like a group the Bucs could thump. Tampa Bay struggled earlier in the year on the road, but they have played better of late away from home. They won by 13 at Atlanta. They just blasted Carolina 32-6 on the road last week as well. Zach Wilson is still a mess and makes far too many mistakes for the Jets. It isn't all his fault, and the Jets need more playmakers in general. Tampa Bay's defense is very good against the run, and I don't see the Jets as able to come close to keeping pace here. Take Tampa Bay.
12-26-21	Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 41.5		13-17	Win	100	61 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Denver Broncos have faced the second easiest slate of defenses so far this year. Their offense ranks 19th in YPP and that is with Teddy Bridgewater under center and against weak defenses. Now, they are left with Drew Lock and they are up against an Oakland defense that is quite a bit better than anyone expected they would be this season. Oakland will likely be without Darren Waller here. The Raiders are much worse offensively without Waller, who is an elite tight end. Oakland could muster only 16 points against Cleveland last week without Waller. They only scored 15 against Washington without Waller. They scored only 9 points against KC without Waller. The Broncos defense is better than those defenses. I don't think Las Vegas will score many here. Bridgewater to Lock is a big step down. Bridgewater has been an underrated quarterback for much of his NFL career. Lock is wildly inconsistent and he lacks good weapons on the outside as well. A low scoring contest here. Take the under.
12-26-21	Bears v. Seahawks UNDER 42		25-24	Loss	-110	39 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Chicago Bears turn to Nick Foles in this game. The Bears really don't have a good option at quarterback at all. Foles likes to throw a bunch of short passes and play it very safe. Allen Robinson is the Bears only good option at wide receiver and he is currently on the COVID list. He is doubtful to return before this game. The Bears will be without Jakeem Grant and left tackle Jason Peters as well. Seattle has played well defensively of late. The Seahawks are second in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Bears are likely to have a conservative game plan here, and I don't think that will lead to much success for Chicago. The Bears defense has faced the toughest slate of opposing offenses so far this year. Seattle's offense isn't even close to what it was in the past. The Seahawks have been pretty reliant on the big play, but the Bears don't give up too many big plays. Seattle's weather for Sunday looks very questionable. There is a 50% chance of snow during this game and winds of 14 mph with very cold temperatures are in the forecast. Take the under.
12-26-21	Giants v. Eagles UNDER 40.5		10-34	Loss	-105	36 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Divisional unders in the NFL have been good bets especially in the late regular season games. These two teams know each other well and that often helps the defense. Jake Fromm is expected to get his first start for the Giants here. Fromm isn't likely to be anything more than a game manager here. He was fine at Georgia, but he was never asked to do too much with an elite offensive line and very good receivers. Kadarius Toney is a game time decision here, and if he does play he will be less than 100 percent. The Giants lack outside weapons. The offensive line is below average as well. The Eagles run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. The Giants defense has actually been pretty good this year. Despite playing the 5th toughest slate of offenses, the Giants are 12th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Seven of the Giants last eight games finished at 40 points or lower. Winds of 13 mph with gusts to 22 mph are in the forecast for this game. Take the under.
12-19-21	Falcons +8.5 v. 49ers		13-31	Loss	-110	157 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play on Falcons The Atlanta Falcons will play in San Francisco this coming Sunday. Atlanta now has a real chance to make the playoffs if they can win this game. If they lose this one, they are basically out of the race. San Francisco is coming off an OT win over Cincinnati. The Bengals outgained the 49ers, but it was turnovers that handed that game to the 49ers. The 49ers have been a pure fade at home under Kyle Shanahan, especially as a favorite. How bad have they been? San Francisco is 4-15-1 ATS as a home favorite under Shanahan. They are 0-9-1 ATS in their 10 games as a home favorite of more than 5 points. They are favored by more than a TD here. Atlanta has a pretty good run game going with Patterson of late, and Matt Ryan is playing much better in recent weeks. The 49ers still have a terrible secondary, and their offense is inconsistent. Grab the points. Take Atlanta.
12-19-21	Panthers v. Bills UNDER 44		14-31	Loss	-109	11 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Josh Allen is banged up for the Buffalo Bills. I would expect the Bills to be more cautious in their play calling here for a couple reasons. First, the Panthers have a good secondary and they could make things difficult for the Bills to begin with. Second, the Bills are a big favorite here and they can likely win this game without Allen having to do a lot. Allen is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league as well, and limited mobility makes him much less dangerous. The Panthers offense is a mess regardless of whether Cam Newton or PJ Walker is under center. Carolina is going to want to run the football a bunch here. Matt Rhule has said he wants 35 carries a game. Here is his chance. The Bills secondary is above average even with their injury problems. The Bills run defense was taken advantage of by the Patriots. I don't think the Panthers can do the same, but they will try. Take the under here.
12-12-21	Bills v. Bucs OVER 53		27-33	Win	100	48 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Tampa Bay Bucs offense is the best in the NFL. They have scored 29 points or more in eight straight games. Tom Brady and this Bucs offense have consistently been tremendous this year. Buffalo's defense is good, but the Bills defense isn't as good as it looks on paper. First, the Bills have faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Bills have also played in a couple bad weather games that have helped their numbers. Also, Tre'Davious White is now out and he is their top cover corner. That's not a good guy to be without when going against this Bucs passing attack. The Bills offense is still good. Last week's game against New England is a throw away. The winds there were far too much to throw the ball around. Josh Allen should have success against a middle of the road Bucs secondary. The weather here looks good. The total is pretty high, but I think this is a back and forth game. Take the over.
12-12-21	49ers v. Bengals OVER 48.5		26-23	Win	100	14 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The San Francisco 49ers secondary has been aggressive this year. They have been able to force some turnovers, but they are also prone to giving up big plays. Joe Burrow has turned it over too much this year and the 49ers could pick up an interception or two here. Still, Burrow is a good quarterback and his receivers are very good. They are more than capable of the big play ball here. The Bengals lost their defensive leader in Logan Wilson due to an injury. Cincinnati's defense is clearly better than last year, but they aren't as good as their statistics on the season would tell you. They have played a weak slate of opposing offenses. Ewuzie is likely to try to play, but he is far less than 100%. Deebo Samuel is expected to play here and that helps the 49ers in a big way. George Kittle should have a big game against a Bengals defense that has struggled badly covering tight ends this year. Take the over.
12-12-21	Seahawks v. Texans UNDER 42.5		33-13	Loss	-113	130 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Houston Texans are the worst offense in the NFL, and it isn't close. Houston has been held to 9 points or less in six of their last ten games. The Texans gained 2.8 yards per play at home against a mediocre Colts defense in their last game. Houston has no strengths on defense. The Seattle Seahawks offense has been a mess of late as well. Seattle might have won last weekend, but the offense didn't look like it was fixed. In fact, they only gained 4.8 yards per play. The offensive line is weak and Russell Wilson doesn't look 100 percent. The Seattle defense has been good against the run. Houston has no deep passing to keep them honest. The Texans defense has been fighting hard in recent weeks. They haven't given up. An ugly game here. Take the under.
12-06-21	Patriots v. Bills UNDER 43		14-10	Win	100	90 h 46 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I had a lean to the under in this game even without weather concerns. With the weather forecast for Buffalo, I have to bet the under here. The weather forecast calls for 21 mph sustained winds at the start of this game with wind gusts of 30 mph through the game. There is currently about a 60 or 70% chance of snow showers during this game as well. The wind is the key, and the snow would be a nice bonus on top of it. The Patriots are a run heavy team, but the Bills rank second in the NFL in rushing defense. Buffalo's offense is best when going through the air, but the wind should make them more conservative and the Pats secondary is elite. This is a very big divisional game. Divisional unders have been very solid in the long run. Take the under here. This number has moved down a bit as more people have seen the forecast here. I would still play this game down to 41
12-05-21	Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5		9-22	Win	100	66 h 51 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Denver Broncos go to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in a key AFC West matchup on Sunday night. The Chiefs have struggled this year on the whole, but here they are back at the top of the division and coming off a bye week. Kansas City is laying a pretty big number here. The expectation is for Kansas City to play well off a bye thanks in large part to Andy Reid. I don't disagree with that, but if Kansas City does play from the lead it helps the under here. When Andy Reid coached teams are home favorites of 6 points or more- the under is a whopping 45-19 since 2005. The Chiefs are in that spot here. Kansas City moves much slower when they have the lead. Denver is likely to use the two high safety look and make Mahomes gradually move the ball down the field as well. The Chiefs defense has quietly been much better in the last few weeks. The weather calls for sustained winds of 14 mph and gusts of 22 mph for this one. Take the under.
12-05-21	Vikings v. Lions UNDER 47		27-29	Loss	-110	59 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Detroit Lions offense is just dreadful. It is terrible to begin with, and now they are without clearly their best offensive player in De'Andre Swift. How are they going to move the football consistently? I certainly wouldn't want to count on Jared Goff and this terrible roster of receivers. How bad has this Detroit offense been? They haven't topped 19 points in a single game since week one of the season. They are averaging 11.5 points per game in their last four contests. Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook. Mattison is a solid backup, but he doesn't have the same breakaway capabilities. The Vikings should be playing from the lead here, and I would expect them to keep things more conservative in this one. Zimmer is a coach who does slow the pace and run more with the lead. Take the under.
12-05-21	Bucs v. Falcons +11		30-17	Loss	-107	12 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play on Falcons The Tampa Bay Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. The Falcons are a tough team to bet on right now, but I don't think they are quite as bad as the market believes they are. Atlanta played Tampa Bay very tough earlier this year. The final score of 48-25 isn't indicative of how difficult that game was for the Bucs. Atlanta actually outgained Tampa Bay in that game. That game was 28-25 entering the fourth quarter. Matt Ryan threw two pick sixes back to back and Tampa Bay ran away with it late. Situationally, this is a tough spot for the Bucs. They are coming off a key win over the Colts on the road last week. They host the Buffalo Bills in a huge game next weekend. Atlanta has improved a bit defensively. They have given up the least plays of 40 plays or more in the NFL. Take Atlanta.
11-28-21	Vikings +3.5 v. 49ers		26-34	Loss	-110	39 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play on Vikings The Minnesota Vikings play one score games that go right to the final whistle almost every single week. Getting these points is more valuable with the Vikings than it would be with most other teams. Mike Zimmer has been a great ATS moneymaker in the long run. He's 72-49 ATS overall. Zimmer has been particularly good in non-divisional games. He is 50-27-1 ATS in those spots. Kyle Shanahan's teams have been money burners as home favorites. In fact, they are 3-15-1 ATS as a home favorite overall. They are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 as home favorites. The Vikings have two elite receivers in Jefferson and Thielen. I don't think the 49ers secondary is good enough to consistently slow them down. Kirk Cousins is playing with a ton of confidence right now. Take Minnesota.
11-28-21	Bucs -3 v. Colts		38-31	Win	100	10 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play on Tampa Bay The Tampa Bay Bucs have slowly gotten healthier. Both Devin White and Vita Vea are considered probable for this one. Vea in particular is crucial in this matchup against a great runner like Jonathan Taylor. The Tampa Bay offense is much better with Rob Gronkowski back on the field as well. Tom Brady and this Bucs passing attack should be able to do damage against a highly questionable Colts secondary. The Colts rank 21st in opponent QBR allowed. The Colts are at just a +0.16 yards per play margin on the year. The Bucs are at an impressive +1.01 yards per play margin. The narrative is going around that Tampa Bay can't win on the road, and these guys have heard this during the week. They are the far superior team here. Indianapolis relies heavily on the run. The best run defense in the NFL is Tampa Bay. I think they slow down Taylor. Take Tampa Bay.
11-25-21	Bills -5.5 v. Saints		31-6	Win	100	28 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play on Bills The Buffalo Bills were throttled last week by the Indianapolis Colts. Buffalo is still a top five team in the NFL. I won't overreact to one terrible showing. Josh Allen is still a very good quarterback, and the Saints have struggled badly with mobile quarterbacks (Hurts for the Eagles last week for example). Allen should do damage both with his legs and his arm. The Saints offense is an absolute mess right now. New Orleans will be without star running back Alvin Kamara again for this game. Now, Mark Ingram is badly banged up and is very questionable for this contest as well. With Jameis Winston out, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill could split time at quarterback here. Both of those guys are playing through injuries as well though. The Bills have what might be the healthiest roster in the NFL right now. Buffalo has avoided the injury bug many others have. This is a get right spot for Buffalo against a Saints team that is the walking wounded right now. Take Buffalo.
11-21-21	Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 47		23-13	Win	100	14 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Under We're going to get either Colt McCoy (seems increasingly likely) or a badly dinged up Kyler Murray in this one. Hopkins is out for the Cardinals as well and that makes this offense a much less intimidating task for the Seattle defense. Arizona had just 3.2 yards per play last week against Carolina. Seattle's offense put up 0 points last week against Green Bay. I certainly expect them to be much better here, but this Seattle offensive line is a major problem and their running game isn't good at all either. Russell Wilson isn't 100 percent healthy. The Cardinals defense is an above average unit as well. Take the under here.
11-21-21	Bengals v. Raiders OVER 50.5		32-13	Loss	-104	23 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Las Vegas Raiders have continually given up big plays in the passing game. Gus Bradley is unwilling to go away from his normal scheme to use the two high safety look that has been great against Patrick Mahomes and others in the NFL who are great with the deep ball. Mahomes burned the Raiders last week. I think Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing attack can do the same. Burrow has three great options at wide receiver in Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Chase and Higgins are both excellent deep threats. The Bengals defense looked good early in the season, but the truth has come out in recent weeks. This is still a below average defense that is very poor in the secondary. They struggle against good tight ends, which makes the Raiders a tough matchup for them. The Bengals last 3 games have sailed over this total. This one is played in the dome and conditions will be ideal for these passing games. Take the over.
11-21-21	Lions v. Browns UNDER 43.5		10-13	Win	100	44 h 15 m	Show
4 Star NFL Total of the Week The Detroit Lions plan to start back Tim Boyle in this one. While Jared Goff isn't a good NFL quarterback, it is a step down from Goff to Boyle. The game plan should be extremely conservative with Boyle under center. In fact, in recent weeks Dan Campbell has already been running the football a lot more. Swift had a whopping 33 carries for Detroit last week. Baker Mayfield is dinged up and far less than 100 percent. The Browns are highly likely to want to run the football a lot in this one and get out of here with a win over a weak team. The weather for this game should change things a bit. This is a stadium that is impacted a lot by wind gusts from the lake. Rain showers are expected with 15 mph wind and gusts over 20 mph. Take the under here.
11-21-21	Texans v. Titans UNDER 45		22-13	Win	100	20 h 10 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tennessee Titans offense hasn't been nearly as good as you would have thought by the final scores in their last two games. The Titans only gained 195 yards in their win over the Rams. They had just 3.5 yards per play. In their win over the Saints, the Titans gained only 264 yards and 4.6 yards per play. The Titans offense is still decent, but Henry is a huge key and defenses can play them differently now. Houston's offense has been weak all season and they tend to be very conservative. The Texans have been especially bad offensively on the road throughout the course of the year. The weather for this game calls for a temperature in the 50's and steady rain with winds of 10-15 mph. That should be enough to make the two teams even more conservative. Take the under.
11-21-21	Saints v. Eagles UNDER 42.5		29-40	Loss	-110	10 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New Orleans Saints defense ranks first in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run, and it isn't particularly close. That's important since the Philadelphia Eagles have gone extremely run heavy in recent weeks. Philadelphia is a solid running team and they'll have some success here, but big gainers shouldn't be expected. They'll also likely use up a bunch of time and have to kick some field goals. The Saints offense is a shell of its former self. New Orleans will throw in some gimmicks here and there but they just don't have the playmakers to be above average in any facet of the game right now. The Eagles defense is top ten against the run as well, and the Saints are going to play conservatively here also. Take the under.
11-14-21	Vikings v. Chargers OVER 53.5		27-20	Loss	-101	13 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Minnesota Vikings rank second in the NFL in tempo. The LA Chargers rank 5th in the NFL in tempo. Both of these teams are more than willing to go uptempo and throw it around if needed. These two defenses are badly banged up. Joey Bosa is questionable and didn't practice on Friday. Ryan Smith is out and Michael Davis is doubtful as well at the cornerback spot. Adderly and Webb are both questionable at safety. The Vikings are without star Danielle Hunter and now Anthony Barr and Michael Pierce are out as well. Breeland is questionable at cornerback for the Vikings also. The Chargers are very willing to go for it on 4th down and that can lead to more points in either direction. The two offenses are pretty healthy, and the two defenses are a mess. This one has real shootout potential. Take the over.
11-14-21	Panthers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5		34-10	Loss	-110	13 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are said to be doubtful to play according to Ian Rapoport. With Chase Edmonds out due to an ankle injury, the Cardinals will lean heavily on James Conner. Conner is a solid runner, but he isn't an explosive guy. He is more of a strong runner who can usually get you a few yards. McCoy is clearly far more conservative than Murray. If Murray does play he'll be at much less than 100%. P.J. Walker starts here for the Panthers. Walker doesn't look like an NFL quarterback in his time under center thus far. The game plan is likely to be very conservative with Walker at quarterback. The Panthers have scored just 28 points in their last three games combined. Arizona quietly has the #2 ranked defense in DVOA so far this year. The Cardinals aren't likely to give up much against this Carolina offense. On the other side, Carolina is 2nd in YPP allowed and 11th in DVOA on defense. These two teams both rank in the bottom 10 in the country in tempo this season. Take the under.
11-14-21	Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53.5		3-43	Loss	-110	132 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Dallas Cowboys were awful offensively for more than 3/4 of the game against the Denver Broncos, and yet they are still first in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. Dak Prescott looked very rusty for much of the game against the Broncos, but I expect Dak to be much better here. It helps that Atlanta has a weak pass rush and a poor group of corners as well. The Falcons defensive numbers are definitely skewed. They have played one offense in the top 12 in the NFL in yards per play all season long (Tampa Bay). They allowed 48 points in that game. Their last few games have been against bottom 10 offenses in the NFL. This is a very weak Atlanta defense. I don't think the Dallas defense is as good as many believe they are right now. They are better than last year, but that isn't saying a lot. Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL in tempo. Atlanta ranks 14th in the NFL in tempo. This one is played in a dome on the fast track. Take the over.
11-07-21	Chargers v. Eagles OVER 50		27-24	Win	100	121 h 24 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The LA Chargers rank second in the NFL in tempo. The Philadelphia Eagles rank 6th in the NFL in tempo. There should be a lot of snaps here. We don't have a posted total that is set particularly high given that pace of play either. The Chargers strength is throwing the football. The Eagles defensive weakness is still their secondary. I would expect Justin Herbert and his wideouts to have a nice day here on Sunday. Austin Ekeler played despite being banged up last Sunday, and he averaged a very impresssive 5.8 yards per carry. The Eagles rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry. The Chargers are dead last in YPC allowed. The Eagles offensive front should allow them to be able to run on the Chargers here. The weather for this matchup looks good thus far. Jerome Boger's crew will be officiated this game. This is the best "over" crew in the business thanks to their defensive holding and pass interference calls. Take the over in this one.
11-07-21	Texans +6 v. Dolphins		9-17	Loss	-110	36 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play on the Texans The Houston Texans take on the Miami Dolphins in a game that is hardly exciting, but I think it provides value. Tyrod Taylor is back in the lineup for the Houston Texans. Taylor is a big upgrade from Davis Mills. With Taylor earlier this season, the Texans knocked off the Jaguars in the season opener and had a real chance against the Browns on the road in game two when Taylor was injured. The Texans have played the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL thus far. Of course the Texans are bad, but the Dolphins are bad now too, and Miami is laying a big number here. Miami expected to be pretty good this year. They had playoff aspirations. Where would their minds be now? There is very little for them to play for now. Houston knew they were in for a tough season. The Texans haven't quit, and I think they'll get an extra burst here with the veteran Taylor back in the lineup for this game. Statistically these teams are pretty similar, but one team is catching a bunch of points as an underdog and they have their leader back at quarterback. Grab the points. Take Houston.
11-07-21	Broncos v. Cowboys OVER 48.5		30-16	Loss	-111	11 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Denver Broncos aren't nearly the defense people expected them to be at the beginning of the season. Denver got rid of Von Miller and that clearly is a hit. They also have several very key injuries. Bradley Chubb, Bryce Callahan, Josey Jewell, and AJ Johnson are all out here. The Dallas Cowboys have the best offense in the NFL. They aren't the team you want to be going against with a multitude of defensive injuries. Dak Prescott is expected to be back here, and he has two great running backs in Elliot and Pollard in the backfield. Lamb is questionable on the outside, but Dallas still has several top notch wide receivers. The Cowboys defense is improved, but they aren't as good as many believe now. Dallas still ranks as a bottom five defense in yards per play allowed. Teddy Bridgewater has Jeudy back on the outside and the Cowboys are unlikely to get too much pressure on Bridgewater here. Dallas has scored 29 points or more in all but one game that Prescott has started (20 against the Chargers- they had a whopping 7.0 YPP in that one too). They should hit 30 or more here again. Take the over.
10-31-21	Bucs v. Saints UNDER 50		27-36	Loss	-110	62 h 24 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The New Orleans Saints are a completely different team than they were a few years ago. The Saints are now a defense first team. New Orleans has a top five defense in the NFL. They actually have gotten a bit healthier of late, and the Saints already rank 3rd in the NFL in YPP allowed so far this year. New Orleans is 31st in pace of play. With Jameis Winston, the Saints staff has decided to play it very safe and I don't blame them one bit. The Saints have ran the ball on 55% of their offensive snaps so far this year. That is easily first in the NFL. Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the NFL. I don't see the Saints having all that much success on the ground here. The Bucs have a great offense, but the Saints defense has given Tom Brady some trouble in recent seasons. I think they'll have a good scheme again here. Will they shut them down? No. I do think they can slow them down though. Take the under.
10-31-21	Washington Football Team v. Broncos OVER 44.5		10-17	Loss	-110	13 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Washington Football team secondary has been as bad as any in football. Washington has allowed 30 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Washington's offense didn't punt a single time last week against Green Bay. Somehow they managed only 10 points. They put up 6.1 yards per play on Green Bay though and that was an encouraging sign for this team. Denver gets Jerry Jeudy back for this game and he should be able to take advantage of the Washington secondary. Teddy Bridgewater is an underrated quarterback and I expect him to play well here. This is a very low total with a favorable weather forecast for this one. Denver has a ton of key injuries on defense. At a full strength they are a good defense, but right now they are no better than mediocre. Take the over.
10-31-21	Titans v. Colts -2.5		34-31	Loss	-120	9 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play on Colts The Tennessee Titans are coming off two massive wins over the Bills and the Chiefs. They should roll past the Colts right? I don't think so. There is clearly sharp action on the Colts here too and they have gone to -2.5. The Colts are +0.23 ypp margin on the year. The Titans are actually worse at -0.03 ypp margin. The Colts have been poor in the red zone on offense this year, but I think that should positively regress toward the mean. Indianapolis is getting great play from Jonathan Taylor, and Carson Wentz is quietly playing very well under Frank Reich. This is still a bad Titans defense. Tennessee gives up a bunch of big plays and look for the Colts to get chunk plays here. The Colts run defense is pretty solid and they have done a good job at preventing big plays this year. The Titans have a big lead in the division. The Colts badly need this game given the time of the year and their place in the standings. Situationally, this is a strong spot for the home team. Take the Colts.
10-25-21	Saints v. Seahawks UNDER 43		13-10	Win	100	90 h 47 m	Show
4 Star Play Under What do the Seattle Seahawks want to do a lot more of now that Russell Wilson is out? They want to run the football and be far more conservative. That isn't likely to work well against the #1 rushing defense in the NFL. The Saints are giving up just 3.35 ypc on the season thus far. New Orleans ranks as the slowest paced team in the NFL. They clearly don't trust Jameis Winston and they are running on 57% of their offensive plays so far this year. The Saints are just 25th in the NFL in yards per play. Rain and wind is in the forecast for this one. Winds of 15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph should change the game and help the defense even more. Take the under.
10-24-21	Colts v. 49ers UNDER 44		30-18	Loss	-110	65 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The weather doesn't often play a major role in games played in Santa Clara, but it looks like it will play a very big role on Sunday night. Historic rains are headed for California and the west coast in general in the next few days. Forecasts currently call for 3-4 inches of rain on Sunday alone in the Santa Clara area. What about the wind? Sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph are in the forecast. The Colts rank 26th in the NFL in tempo. The 49ers rank 22nd in the NFL in tempo. With these conditions we should see a lot of running plays and that means a moving clock far more often than in a normal NFL game. The under has been very good at Santa Clara in the past because of the thick grass. This surface could be a real mess in this kind of rainstorm. Take the under.
10-24-21	Eagles +3 v. Raiders		22-33	Loss	-120	14 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play on Eagles The Las Vegas Raiders are an extremely inconsistent team. It's already been seen this year. They topped the Ravens and won at Pittsburgh. They also lost at home to the Bears, and needed overtime to beat the Dolphins at home. Philadelphia ranks 6th in the NFL in yards per play margin. The Eagles have played a tough schedule as well. They had to take on the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bucs all already. Philadelphia gets Lane Johnson back here and this offensive line has an advantage over the Raiders defensive front. Look for Miles Sanders to have room to run here. Las Vegas is giving up an ugly 4.64 yards per carry on the year. The Raiders rank worst in the NFL in yards per carry on offense. They do have a good passing game, but the Eagles defensive line is very solid and I expect them to get pressure on Carr without having to send blitzes. The Eagles have allowed only 15 plays of 20 yards or more so far this year (2nd best in the NFL). The Eagles played last Thursday so they had extra time to prepare for this contest. The Raiders put a bunch into last week's win over the Broncos in their first game without Gruden. I'm not convinced they'll be as good here. Take the Eagles.
10-24-21	Jets v. Patriots UNDER 42.5		13-54	Loss	-110	120 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New England Patriots and New York Jets met earlier this season. The Patriots won that game 25-6. The two teams averaged just 4.9 and 4.6 yards per play in that contest. New England and New York both play at a tempo slower than the NFL average. Both teams struggle badly to get big plays. New England has only 1 play of 40 yards or more all season. The Jets have only 18 plays of 20 yards or more (27th best in the NFL). Both teams have struggled badly in the red zone on offense as well. The Jets defense is above average against the run. The Patriots prefer to run the football when they can. The Patriots offense is very vanilla with Mac Jones at quarterback. The Jets offense has no running game. The Jets shockingly have zero rushing plays of 20 yards or more all year. They are one of only two teams in the NFL to have 0 rushing plays of 20 yards or more. It looks like there be some wind in this game- nothing extreme but enough to possibly make both offenses a bit more conservative. Take the under.
10-17-21	Cardinals v. Browns UNDER 50.5		37-14	Loss	-110	122 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Arizona Cardinals and the Cleveland Browns meet in Cleveland on Sunday. These two teams are 7th and 14th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The offenses are solid, but they don't play fast. It might surprise you to know that Arizona ranks 24th in overall tempo this year. Cleveland ranks an even slower 29th. Cleveland is coming off a high scoring game and that is part of the reason the total is so high here. This game appears to setup differently though. The weather for this game looks highly suspect. Right now, there are winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the forecast. We saw last year what the extreme wind from the lake in Cleveland can do to make a game much lower scoring. Even without extreme weather I think this projects as a game where both teams can limit the big plays from the other side. The weather is a great bonus though. Look for a hard fought game with more running of the football than a normal NFL game, which will keep the clock moving. Take the under.
10-17-21	Chiefs v. Washington Football Team OVER 55.5		31-13	Loss	-104	118 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Washington Football team has allowed 30 points or more to every team they have played this year. Now, they host the Kansas City Chiefs who have arguably the best offense in football. It isn't going to go well for the Washington defense in this game either. Buffalo put up 43 points on this Washington defense. Kansas City is 2-3 and they should be upset after their home loss to the Bills on Sunday night. I'll be very surprised if Mahomes and company aren't on point offensively against this terrible Washington secondary. Speaking of bad defenses, the Kansas City Chiefs rank last in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and it isn't even close. Washington is a middle of the road offense, but I think Taylor Heinicke and company can have a good game here against the very weak Chiefs defense. Washington has averaged 26.75 points per game in their last four games. They should put up a good number here again. Two terrible secondaries and the quarterbacks should take advantage. Take the over.
10-17-21	Bengals v. Lions UNDER 47		34-11	Win	100	11 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cincinnati Bengals is one of the most improved defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati has drafted some very solid linebackers the last couple seasons and it is starting to pay off. The Bengals are also much stronger on the defensive line now. It helps that the Bengals defense has stayed much healthier so far this season too. The Detroit Lions wide receivers are the worst in the NFL. They are now without their top two wideouts for this game due to injury also. Their star center Ragnow is also out with an injury. Jared Goff is pretty good as a game manager, but he isn't surrounded by much talent here now, and the Bengals defensive front should be in the backfield a lot here. Joe Mixon is still banged up for the Bengals. He'll likely play, but he isn't 100 percent healthy. Joe Burrow is a very good quarterback, but the offensive line in front of him is very weak. Burrow was knocked around last week again and I think the play calling here could be pretty conservative from the Bengals. The Lions defense isn't supremely talented by any means, but they have been playing really hard for Dan Campbell. This Lions defense has looked much better in recent weeks. They have allowed just 19, 24, and 19 points against the Ravens, Bears, and Vikings in their last three games. Take the under here.
10-10-21	Giants v. Cowboys OVER 52		20-44	Win	100	14 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The New York Giants rank 8th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The offensive line has been far better than expected. Daniel Jones has played pretty well this year as well. Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph are great in the passing game in the middle of the field and Dallas is weak when it comes to defending tight ends in the passing game. The Giants are scoring a touchdown on only 33.33% of their trips into the red zone so far this year. That should positively regress over time, and that would mean the Giants could start piling up the points. Dallas has an elite offense. They might be the second best offense in the NFL (Chiefs 1st) right now. Dallas is so well balanced and Dak Prescott is a great fit in this offense. Dallas is averaging 31.5 points per game, and they have played some very good defenses this year. This is the worst ranked defense they have faced yet. The Cowboys should light up the scoreboard here. Dallas has shown they will let the opposition score a lot when the Cowboys are playing from the lead. On a fast track here I like the chances of a high scoring game. Take the over.
10-10-21	49ers v. Cardinals OVER 48		10-17	Loss	-110	13 h 10 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The San Francisco 49ers expect to start Trey Lance in this one and George Kittle is expected to be out of the lineup. That's clearly a negative for the over, but that is more than accounted for in this number. San Francisco was pretty good offensively last week. They averaged 6.3 yards per play against Seattle, but had some big mistakes that cost them. Arizona is an offensive machine right now. Kyler Murray is playing as well as anyone. The Cardinals have so many weapons all over the field and Murray is great at getting everyone involved. San Francisco has home run ability in the run game, and Arizona ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Trey Lance will help the run game and I think that could be tough to stop for Arizona throughout this one. The 49ers secondary gives up too many big plays, and Arizona has been piling up the big plays this year. Take the over.
10-10-21	Bears v. Raiders OVER 45		20-9	Loss	-110	13 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Chicago Bears offense looked quite a bit better last weekend despite playing in less than ideal weather conditions. Justin Fields clearly is the quarterback you want starting if you want potential for points. He has bigger downfield passing potential, but he also can make some mistakes that give the other team a short field sometimes. The Las Vegas Raiders offense has been very good this year. Derek Carr has big playmakers in the passing game. The Bears defense is an average or slightly below average unit now. Akiem Hicks is out for this one and Khalil Mack is questionable. Those are key injuries. Las Vegas should have chances to put together some great drives. Early season games in domes have been good over bets in the NFL especially at low totals. This one fits the bill. Take the over.
10-07-21	Rams -2.5 v. Seahawks		26-17	Win	100	20 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play on Rams ATS The Seattle Seahawks have two big weaknesses as a team. They have a very weak offensive line. They also have a terrible secondary. Those are two weaknesses you don't want to have when going against the Rams. The Rams defensive line led by Aaron Donald is likely to be pretty angry after a terrible showing last week against the Cardinals. They get a bad offensive line here, and I expect Russell Wilson to be under pressure early and often. Seattle ranks 25th in QBR allowed. The Seahawks are likely to have issues containing Matt Stafford and this Rams group of solid wide receivers. LA has a very good offensive line, so I would expect Stafford to have time to throw here. Seattle is coming off a fraudulent win. They beat San Francisco by 7 last week, but the 49ers averaged 6.3 yards per play compared to only 4.3 ypp for Seattle. San Francisco was 2/14 on 3rd down. Seattle was also +2 in turnover margin. The Rams have the impressive win over Tampa Bay already this year. Seattle has played a weak schedule and already has a home loss to the Titans, who haven't played well overall this year. Sean McVay has done a good job being ready for Pete Carroll teams in the past. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Rams.
10-03-21	Ravens v. Broncos UNDER 45		23-7	Win	100	39 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos both have a lot of key injuries. Glasnow is out on the offensive line for the Broncos. Risner is questionable as well and the Ravens certainly like to bring a lot of pressure. Lamar Jackson is questionable but is expected to play for the Ravens. Baltimore star lineman Ronnie Staley is out here and this Broncos pass rush should be able to get to Jackson here. Villaneuva is also banged up on the offensive line. Marlon Humphrey is likely to play here and he is one of the most talented corners in the game. The Denver defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Broncos have certainly played a fairly easy schedule of offenses so far, but this is definitely a good defense. Denver's offense ranks 32nd in the NFL in pace of play. The Broncos are running the ball 4th most of any team in the NFL. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in pace of play. They are running the ball third most of any team in the NFL. Take the under here.
10-03-21	Colts v. Dolphins UNDER 42.5		27-17	Loss	-110	10 h 60 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Indianapolis Colts were thought to have an average or slightly above average defense before the season. They rank 27th in yards per play allowed so far this year. Take a look at the 3 offenses they have faced this year though: Seattle, LA Rams, and Tennessee Titans. Those are three excellent offenses who will put up big numbers on a lot of teams. Miami is without Tua here and this is a huge step down in class for the Colts defense. Miami put up 3.1 ypp against the Bills two games ago. They put up only 4.2 ypp against a subpar Raiders defense last week. The Dolphins don't have an explosive offense in their current state. The Dolphins do have a very good defense though. They will be up against a badly banged up Carson Wentz and a Colts offense that lacks top end skill position talent. Miami's secondary is one of the best in the NFL. Look for a sloppy game here. Take the under.
10-03-21	Washington Football Team v. Falcons UNDER 48		34-30	Loss	-110	10 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Atlanta Falcons offense has looked terrible this year. Matt Ryan appears to be falling off quickly at quarterback. It obviously hurts that Julio Jones is no longer here, but Ryan's arm strength isn't even close to what it was a few years ago. Atlanta is 29th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. They rank 32nd in DVOA so far this season on offense. Atlanta is a mess offensively and it starts with a terrible offensive line. The Falcons have what might be the worst offensive line in football. Washington's defensive front hasn't played nearly as well as expected so far this year, but Washington has a great chance to cause this Atlanta offensive line a lot of trouble in this game. Washington has been hearing about their underperformance on the defensive line, and I think they show up and give the Falcons a lot of trouble here. Taylor Heinicke has had issues with bad turnovers of late. I think Washington is likely to play it safe more often with him this week hoping to keep the turnovers to a minimum. A more conservative game plan and a slower pace of play is likely. Both offenses have a bunch of question marks. Take the under here.
09-26-21	Packers v. 49ers OVER 50		30-28	Win	100	41 h 27 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The San Francisco 49ers have made a habit of putting up big point totals against Green Bay. San Francisco has scored 30, 37, 37, and 17 points in the last four meetings between these two teams. The time when they scored 17 points was last year when Nick Mullens was the starter. Jimmy G is back and he looks pretty good to start the season. Kittle is healthy and he has absolutely crushed this Green Bay defense time and time again. This Green Bay defense has been worse than last year's version so far. They have very little pass rush and the secondary is a question mark. San Francisco's secondary is weaker than it was a year ago. The 49ers also don't have very many reliable pass rushers. Both Green Bay and San Francisco's defenses have gotten to play the Detroit Lions, who are one of the weaker offenses in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense got going late in the Monday night win over the Lions. I think they'll have success again here. Can Green Bay stop San Francisco? I see nothing that would make me think they can. Jerome Boger's crew is officiating this game. The over is a whopping 114-79 in Boger's games (59.1% overs). Take the over here.
09-26-21	Dolphins +4 v. Raiders		28-31	Win	100	13 h 44 m	Show
3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week The Miami Dolphins are coming off an embarrassing 35-0 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Tua was hurt in that game and Jacoby Brissett entered that game and didn't appear ready to go. Now, Brissett has known all week that he starts, and he should be much better. it also helps that he is going against a Raiders defense that isn't very good. Miami will be helped by Fuller being back on the field. The Raiders secondary is a clear weakness and I think Miami has the weapons to make them pay. Derek Carr is a hot and cold quarterback. He can look great or he can look bad. The Dolphins secondary is elite. I don't think Carr will have as many open receivers as he has had in his first couple games. Both the Steelers and Ravens defense were severely shorthanded when the Raiders beat them. In the NFL, teams who were blown out the week before often have value. Teams coming off a game with less than 10 points and who are receiving 30% of the bets or less (Miami fits this angle) 137-78 ATS (63.7% ATS covers) since 2005. The public is all over the Raiders here. Jon Gruden is 19-31-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more dating back to 2003. With the Raiders, he is 2-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more. Take Miami.
09-26-21	Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 45.5		24-10	Win	100	155 h 42 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Cincinnati Bengals defense has impressed me so far this year. The Bengals have clearly upgraded their secondary, and their linebackers who were completely raw last year are now experienced enough to hold their own. Cincinnati held the Bears to 3.4 yards per play today. The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line was a problem against the Bears. They were struggling to get a push, and Joe Burrow was under too much pressure. The Steelers strong front seven are likely to make things very tough on the Bengals offensive front here. Pittsburgh has scored just 23 and 17 points in their first two games. Against Buffalo, they got a punt block for a TD. This is a Steelers offense that has yet to find itself this season. The Steelers still have a very good defense that will be very tough for most teams to move the ball on. This is a divisional rivalry and these AFC North contests have been good under bets. Totals of 41 points or higher in an AFC North matchup are 69-48-1 to the under in the last 118 meetings (59% unders). Take the under.
09-19-21	Cowboys v. Chargers OVER 54.5		20-17	Loss	-105	13 h 0 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The LA Chargers have a new faster paced offense with the new coaching staff this year. Justin Herbert is a perfect fit for this offense at the quarterback spot. He has plenty of weapons surrounding him, and the Chargers have upgraded the offensive line position a great deal. Rashawn Slater looks like a star already. The Chargers racked up 424 yards of offense against Washington last week. They go against a much worse Dallas defense in this one. Dallas isn't good at all on defense, and now they will be without their best defensive player, DeMarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys secondary is a major problem area, and now they have a much weaker pass rush. The Chargers are expected to be without cornerback Chris Harris in this game. Justin Jones is also doubtful on the defensive line. The Chargers defense isn't a bad unit, but it is far from dominant. The Dallas Cowboys offense has all sorts of weapons and Dak Prescott looked good in the season opener. Dallas should be able to score and score quickly against most teams this year. Can their defense get any stops? That is a tougher question. They'll need to win shootouts more than likely. This game is indoors and early season games between non divisional foes in a dome have been good over bets long term. Take the over.
09-19-21	Vikings v. Cardinals OVER 50.5		33-34	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Arizona Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. Arizona torched Tennessee for 38 points last week. The Titans offense was a no show in that game. I think Minnesota's offense will show up more than the Titans did a week ago. Arizona does have a very good pass rush, but the Cardinals secondary is extremely weak. They face a top 3 group of wide receivers in the NFL in this game. Dalvin Cook is also a great pass catcher out of the backfield. Kirk Cousins has all sorts of weapons around him. Kyler Murray looks great this year. He is healthy and looks extremely mobile. This is a guy who is extremely tough to defend. The Cardinals have DeAndre Hopkins and multiple very fast wideouts to hit the home run ball with. The Vikings secondary is another questionable secondary. The over is 55.5% in dome games in the NFL in the first two months of the season in the last six years. This is on the fast track and I expect to see some big plays here. Take the over.
09-19-21	Patriots v. Jets UNDER 42.5		25-6	Win	100	84 h 5 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The New York Jets offense looked very weak against the questionable Carolina Panthers defense last week. The Jets had just 8 points going into their final drive of the game. The Panthers sat back in prevent and the Jets then went on a touchdown drive and the game finished 19-14. Even with that long TD drive at the end of the game, the Jets only finishing with 4.2 yards per play. The New England Patriots defense is much better than the Carolina defense. It would be very surprising if the Jets can score much here. On the other side, the Patriots are going to lean on the run game more this year once again, and the Jets are a pretty good run defense. I think this is the type of game where a Patriots lead and then conservative play calling and running the clock is very reasonable to expect. New England is a well coached defense and they should bother Wilson in this game. Expect them to bring pressure after him here. The Jets defensive coaching staff is pretty good too, and I don't think the Patriots are anxious to hurry up and take a bunch of big risks. Take the under here.
09-12-21	Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5		14-34	Loss	-104	50 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Chicago Bears have some significant offensive problems. The Bears have a weak offensive line and a lack of skill position talent. Andy Dalton isn't likely to be the answer for this team. The Bears are very likely to be conservative on offense and play at a slow tempo. I would expect Aaron Donald and the Rams defensive line to be a major problem for the Chicago offense. The Bears defense is still an above average unit. Stafford should do pretty well with the Rams, but I don't think they'll find moving the football easy against this solid Bears defense. The last 3 years these teams have played each year. The final total score was 26.6 points. None came even close to this total. Allen Robinson is a great weapon, but Jalen Ramsey will matchup with him. The Bears should struggle to find anyone else to turn to. Take the under.
09-12-21	Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 43.5		17-16	Win	100	46 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Two young quarterbacks up against talented and well coached defenses. I would expect to see two conservative game plans in this contest. The Miami secondary is excellent. Mac Jones starts right from game one for the Patriots, but he isn't surrounded by great talent and Miami's secondary will be tough to beat. Tua Tagovailoa was good in the preseason, but his regular season performances haven't been very good. He's up against a great defensive coach here. I would expect Miami to want to run the football more than normal in this game. Both of these defenses have been good at preventing the big play. I think that continues in this game. The weather here calls for 15 mph winds throughout the game. That isn't massive, but it does help the under some. Will Fuller is out for this game for Miami too, which certainly limits their vertical passing game. Take the under.
09-12-21	Cardinals v. Titans OVER 52		38-13	Loss	-109	94 h 55 m	Show
4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week The Arizona Cardinals offense will once again play very quickly this year. Kyler Murray wasn't very healthy down the stretch last year. He is once again healthier now and I expect big things from him. It doesn't hurt that he now has De'Andre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and AJ Green on the outside. The Titans pass defense is subpar, and I think Arizona is the type of team that can take advantage of that early and often. Speaking of vulnerable secondaries, the Cardinals pass defense is a clear weakness. Ryan Tannehill has been great in this Titans system. He now has another star in Julio Jones on the outside. AJ Brown is excellent as well. The Cardinals aren't likely to be able to slow this duo down. I think both of these teams will have a lot of success on offense. Another clear positive in this game is Jerome Boger's crew is here. Boger's crew is notorious for defensive penalties and high scoring games. In fact, the over is a whopping 114-77 in Boger's games as the crew chief (59.7% overs). Take the over.
09-12-21	Jaguars v. Texans +3.5		21-37	Win	100	42 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play on Houston Everyone is betting on Jacksonville here. I get that Jacksonville has improved their talent pool. I also realize that Urban Meyer is a big name hire. Things should clearly improve for the Jaguars in general this year, but laying this number on the road is a little out of control. This is still a team with major weaknesses. Teams with 6 wins or fewer from the previous year who are underdogs in week 1 of the next year are hitting at a 60% clip ATS in the last 15 years in the NFL. Houston fits that system. There isn't much positive to say about Houston. Clearly, they won't be a good team this year. Still, Taylor is a decent quarterback who can manage a game. Remember, he is going up against a really bad Jacksonville defense as well. The Texans are still professionals who are going to put forth effort, especially at the beginning of the season. I'll fade the public and go with the ugly home underdog. Take Houston.
01-24-21	Bucs v. Packers OVER 51.5		31-26	Win	100	34 h 42 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Green Bay Packers have been the single best team in the NFL when it comes to scripted plays in the first quarter on offense. The coaching staff has been putting this offense in great spots, and Aaron Rodgers and the offense have been great at executing especially early in the game. Tampa Bay has been poor on defense in the first quarter this year as well. I think Green Bay plays from ahead in this game. Tampa Bay has been a bit conservative on offense early in games this year, but when they have been down their offense is at its best. They have gotten more aggressive in these spots and they have the best pass catching weapons in the NFL. Tom Brady and this Tampa Bay offense should be able to move the ball in this game against a mediocre Green Bay defense. I see Tampa Bay's pass defense as a clear weakness. Drew Brees wasn't able to exploit that weakness. Aaron Rodgers should be able without too much trouble. The Packers defense has been very quick to get into prevent defense and give up big plays to their opposition. If they do that in this game it could become a real shootout. Did you know that non-divisional games with a temperature of 29 degrees or lower (average temperature during the game) have gone 71-31 in the last 102 contests. The cold weather without wind is not a negative for the over. Look for plenty of points here. Take the over.
01-17-21	Bucs v. Saints -3		30-20	Loss	-109	41 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play on New Orleans I'm not going to buy into the "it is hard to beat a team 3 times" narrative. What if you are just better than the other team? The Saints offense has gotten healthier and there are enough weapons in the passing game that I would expect the Tampa Bay pass defense to really struggle against them. Tom Brady has struggled when under pressure and the Saints are good at pressuring the opposition without sending a blitz constantly. The Saints defense is my second ranked defense in the NFL right now. They have played extremely well in the second half of the season. Tampa Bay has been good on offense of late, but this is a clear step up in class. Tampa Bay's defense has regressed in recent weeks. They are giving up far too many big plays this season. The Saints skill position talent is going to be hard for them to slow down. Take New Orleans.
01-16-21	Rams v. Packers UNDER 46		18-32	Loss	-110	15 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Green Bay Packers host the LA Rams on Saturday. The LA Rams have the best defense in the NFL. This is a team that just doesn't give up big plays in the passing game. The secondary is deep and they will challenge the Packers passing game. Green Bay also is banged up on the offensive line and I see that being a problem here against an elite defensive front who can really get after the passer. The Rams quarterback play is a major question mark. Jared Goff didn't look good at all last week. He looked like a guy who was struggling to make all the throws. He was throwing wobblers and couldn't get a spiral. His injury seems like a major problem. The cold weather has always been tough for him and I don't see it going well here. The Rams should run it often and try to keep the clock moving. The Packers play at a slow tempo as well. Take the under here.
01-10-21	Ravens v. Titans OVER 54		20-13	Loss	-105	10 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Tennessee Titans have a top three offense in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill has been a great fit at quarterback here, and they have a star at running back in Derrick Henry. The wide receivers are underrated as well. There are weapons all over the field for the Titans. Baltimore's offense started the year off playing poorly. They have really kicked it into high gear of late. While the Ravens wins late in the year did come against bad teams, it is important to note that the Titans defense is a bottom five unit in the NFL. This is one of the worst defenses the Ravens have faced all season. There is no bad weather in the forecast here. Only one of the Titans last seven games has stayed under this number. Jerome Boger's crew is set to call this game. In Boger's crews games, the over is a whopping 114-76 (60% overs). Look for a lot of key defensive flags in this one. Take the over.
01-09-21	Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 45		31-23	Loss	-100	4 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tampa Bay offense has been inconsistent this year. Tampa Bay has been at their best when Tom Brady isn't facing significant pressure. The single biggest strength of this Washington team is their ability to rush the passer. Brady shouldn't be comfortable in this one. On the Washington side, the offense is a mess. Alex Smith isn't healthy and he'll either be playing and struggling or it will be Washington backup Taylor Heinicke playing. He isn't a guy who instills any confidence. Washington will have to try to be very cautious on offense. Tampa Bay's defense is very strong against the run. The Bucs have given up some big plays in the passing game, but I don't think Washington is a team who can take advantage of that weakness. Take the under.
01-09-21	Colts v. Bills -6.5		24-27	Loss	-113	107 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play on Bills The Buffalo Bills have been playing as well as anyone in the NFL of late. Buffalo's passing attack is a top three or four unit in the NFL right now. Josh Allen is playing with a ton of confidence, and he should be able to throw it around on this Colts secondary. The Colts have given up a lot of big plays through the air in recent weeks to the Steelers, Houston, and the Raiders. Indianapolis is without star offensive lineman Anthony Castonzo. He is their best offensive lineman. Phillip Rivers has performed poorly in the playoffs even in his prime, and he is far past his prime now. I expect the Bills to be able to score here, and the Colts will have to keep up. I doubt Rivers and his weak arm can keep up in this spot. The Bills defense has played far better in the final weeks of the season. I'm going to lay the points here with the team with the much higher upside. Take Buffalo.
01-03-21	Titans -7 v. Texans		41-38	Loss	-115	20 h 9 m	Show
3 Star NFL Play of the Week The Tennessee Titans need this game to make the playoffs. We know we will get a motivated Tennessee team coming into this one. I think Mike Vrabel is a solid head coach. The Titans have great balance on offense. Tannehill is a great fit for the offense, and his wide receivers are tremendous. Derrick Henry is a great runner, and the offensive line is solid as well. The Houston Texans would be better off losing this game. Houston has a star quarterback in Deshaun Watson, but he has an injured elbow. He is expected to start the game here, but I'm not sure if he will finish it or not. Why would the Texans risk him getting a worse injury? Houston is expected to be without Tunsil, their best offensive lineman as well. The wide receivers are way below average with their current group that will take the field. The Titans are going to score a lot of points here against a Texans team that hasn't been able to stop anyone on defense of late. Even the hapless Bengals offense put up 37 points on them last week. This one could get ugly. Take the Titans.
12-27-20	Rams +1 v. Seahawks		9-20	Loss	-110	27 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play on Rams The LA Rams are coming off an embarrassing loss to the New York Jets last week. The average joe public bettor won't want anything to do with this team in the following week. However, the sharp money is clearly pointing toward the Rams in this matchup. While only 44% of the bets are on the Rams as of Saturday afternoon, 80% of the money is on the Rams here. Good teams in the NFL are generally good bets after a dud of a performance, and the Rams are certainly in that spot here. Seattle's defense has looked good in recent weeks, but have they really been tested? Their last four games have been against the Eagles with Wentz, the Giants with McCoy, the Jets, and Washington with Haskins at quarterback. To say that stopping the Rams offense will be a much harder task is a huge understatement. Sean McVay has had a schematic edge over Pete Carroll for a long time. The Rams have outgained the Seahawks in seven straight meetings. They have won five of the last six meetings between these two, and they lost the other game by one point. The Rams might have the best defense in the NFL, and the Seahawks offensive line will struggle here. The Rams are one of the few teams in the NFL with the players to slow down the Seattle passing game. Take the Rams.
12-27-20	Falcons +10.5 v. Chiefs		14-17	Win	100	92 h 32 m	Show
4 Star NFL ATS Play of the WEEK The Atlanta Falcons have proven that they will play hard even late in the season when they have nothing to play for. This is a time that has done this time and time again. I expect more of the same from them here. Kansas City has been playing down to their competition in recent weeks. The Chiefs have won six straight games by six points or less. Kansas City basically knows their spot in the AFC will be number one. I don't see why they would want to try to pull out all their best plays and win this game big. This is a spot where the Chiefs should just want to win. Atlanta fights to the end and stays within single digits here. Take the Falcons.
12-27-20	Bears v. Jaguars OVER 47		41-17	Win	100	92 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Jaguars defense is arguably the worst in the NFL. Chicago has really found something offensively of late. Trubisky is playing much better and Montgomery has been great out of the backfield both running the football and catching it out of the backfield. I don't see Jacksonville slowing this offense down. The Bears defense isn't what they were last year or even earlier this year. Chicago is banged up on the defensive side, and they have been giving up a lot more big plays. Jerome Boger's crew is doing this game, and the over has hit a whopping 60% of the time in Boger's crews games in a sample size of nearly 200 games. Expect a lot of flags on the defense here. Take the over.
12-20-20	Browns v. Giants OVER 44		20-6	Loss	-108	46 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cleveland Browns played in three games with very bad weather this year. Those games were played in extreme wind and that makes their offensive numbers look a little worse than they should and their defensive numbers a little better than they should. The fact is in a game played in decent weather conditions, the Browns haven't had a game finish with a score lower than 44 points all season. I admit that the Giants are a lower scoring team, and they may well have Colt McCoy at quarterback here. Still, this Browns defense has been really weak against the run, and I think the Giants should be able to run the ball in this one. The Browns rushing attack is one of the best in the NFL. Also, the Giants are going to be without star corner James Bradberry in this one. The Browns do have big play receivers on the outside. Baker Mayfield is inconsistent, but he should be able to hit some big plays here. This is an awfully low total for today's NFL. I view the Browns as an over team, so I'll take the low over here. Take the over.
12-20-20	Seahawks -4 v. Washington Football Team		20-15	Win	100	156 h 12 m	Show
4 Star Play on Seattle The Washington Football team just won 23-15 over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Washington didn't score an offensive touchdown in that game. In fact, they only had 193 yards and 3.1 yards per play. The Washington win in that game had a lot more to do with Nick Mullens being really bad than anything else. Washington also lost Alex Smith due to an injury in that game. Dwayne Haskins came in and looked really bad as he previously has. I think this number is a pretty good grab for Seattle even if Smith were healthy, but it will likely be Haskins here. Haskins at this point is a very bad NFL quarterback, and he is a turnover machine. Seattle has been up and down this year, but this number has to go up from here. The Seahawks are the much more talented team. Take Seattle.
12-19-20	Panthers v. Packers OVER 51.5		16-24	Loss	-107	22 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Green Bay Packers offense has been tremendous in every way this year. Green Bay is much healthier on the offensive side of the football than the average NFL team right now. Green Bay ranks 5th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The Packers have faced a lot of tough defenses too. The Packers are balanced on offense, which allows them to be very good in the red zone as well. Carolina's defense has given up a lot of big plays this year. The Panthers secondary is a big problem, and Aaron Rodgers and this group of receivers should take advantage of this unit. On the other side, the Packers defense has been middle of the road this year. Teddy Bridgewater and the Carolina offense have continued to be pretty good this year. Green Bay should have a lead in this game as well, and when the Packers get a lead in the second half they are quick to play a prevent defense. This has allowed a lot of opponents to put up points in the fourth quarter. A good example of this was their win over the Bears a couple weeks ago. Look for a high scoring contest here. Take the over.
12-19-20	Bills -5 v. Broncos		48-19	Win	100	24 h 24 m	Show
3 Star Play on Buffalo The Bills are a very strong. I backed them against Pittsburgh and I will back them again here. Denver is without their top four cornerbacks in this game. The Broncos secondary is in shambles right now. Buffalo has the receivers to take advantage of that even without Brown on the field. Josh Allen continues to show that he has improved greatly as a quarterback. He is clearly a top six or eight quarterback in the NFL now. Given the Broncos defensive situation this is a great spot for him and the Bills offense. The Denver offense can't be trusted. Drew Lock isn't a good NFL quarterback. Buffalo's defense started the season out struggling, but this is a talented unit that is playing much better now and they have stayed relatively healthy. This number has dropped to a buy point for me. Take Buffalo.
12-13-20	Steelers v. Bills -2		15-26	Win	100	17 h 58 m	Show
4 Star Play on the Buffalo Bills I like this spot for the Buffalo Bills. Pittsburgh comes into this game with some significant injury problems on defense. The linebacker spot was an area of strength for the Steelers coming into this year, but it is now a major weakness without the likes of Bush and Dupree. Joe Haden is their best guy in the secondary and he is hurt now as well. Pittsburgh has played the single easiest slate of offenses so far this year. The Steelers have padded their stats to a large degree. This is a good defense, but they aren't as good as they look on paper. Buffalo's Josh Allen isn't getting enough credit for how good he has been this year. Allen has really improved, and he has great weapons on the outside to take advantage of this weakened Steelers defense. The Pittsburgh offense hasn't been able to run the ball at all, and they have had issues with drops in the passing game. Buffalo's defense has been rounding into form in recent weeks. This is a huge game for Buffalo to prove they are a contender in the AFC. Take Buffalo.
12-13-20	Jets v. Seahawks UNDER 47		3-40	Win	100	86 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Seattle Seahawks offense has really come back down to earth in recent weeks. After last week's loss at home against the Giants, Pete Carroll said the Seahawks need to run the football a lot more and get back to giving the ball to Chris Carson a lot more. I don't understand that strategy, especially against the Jets. New York is third in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. If the Seahawks want to run the ball consistently here and play as slow as they have been playing in recent weeks, I think that gives a lot more value to the under. The Jets offense is averaging 5.0 YPP at home and only 4.4 YPP on the road. The Seahawks defense is clearly much better with Jamal Adams and Carlos Dunlap on the field. Adams plays against his old team here and he should be ready to go. The weather report calls for rain here and that could lead to an even more conservative game plan from each team. Take the under here.
12-13-20	Titans v. Jaguars OVER 52		31-10	Loss	-110	10 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Titans and Jaguars meet up on Sunday afternoon. The Titans beat the Jaguars 33-31 earlier this year. The two teams had 6.0 and 6.5 yards per play in that game. The Jaguars have quite a few injuries on the defensive side now. I think they are a bit weaker on defense than they were in that first matchup. Tennessee is a really good offense. They have a great running back in Henry. They also have very good wide receivers and an efficient quarterback in Tannehill. Smith is a good offensive coordinator for them also. I don't think Jacksonville can do much of anything to slow them down here. Mike Glennon has done a decent job at quarterback for the Jaguars. Jacksonville does have some decent pieces on the outside to throw the ball to. The Titans have absolutely no pass rush, and I think the Jaguars will be able to move the ball through the air pretty well here. Both teams play much faster than the NFL average, and this total isn't all that high in today's NFL. Take the over.
12-10-20	Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45.5		3-24	Win	100	30 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New England Patriots should come up with a good defensive scheme to face Jared Goff and the Rams here. They certainly did a couple years ago in the Super Bowl. Jared Goff can look great one game and very questionable the next game. The New England offense is being very conservative on offense right now. The Patriots run the ball a bunch. The Rams are allowing 3.91 yards per carry. Look for the Rams to do a good job stopping the run here. I don't trust Cam Newton to be able to do much through the air against this elite secondary either. The Rams defense ranks number one in the NFL in yards per play allowed overall. Both of these teams have played 8 of their 12 games so far this year under this total. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand on Thursday night. Take the under.

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