Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play on the Titans* San Francisco has certainly been better the last couple weeks since changing quarterbacks. Still, this is a line that gives an awful lot of credit to a 3-10 team who has very little home field advantage. 

Marcus Mariota had a terrible game last week and I think this is a good bounce back spot for him. This is a game the Titans really need to win to right the ship. The Titans defense is an underrated unit. Tennessee ranks 4th in the NFL in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. 

I see this as an overreaction to the last couple weeks. We will look to take advantage of some recency bias.

San Francisco is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. The 49ers are 5-15 ATS versus a team with a winning record.  

Take the Titans.

*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Seattle Seahawks host the LA Rams in a game that means a lot to both teams. You can expect both teams to be highly motivated in this one. The more important the game- the better it is for the under, especially in the regular season.

A big reason why I like this one is the weather. Seattle is expected to receive steady rain through this game, and wind will accompany it. The winds are expected to be 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That's enough to change the way this game is played.

The Seahawks running attack isn't good at all. The Rams can run the ball some, but the strength of the Seahawks defense now is their run defense. 

These teams have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. In the last three games between these two one team has had 10 points or fewer. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. The under is 4-0 in the Seahawks last 4 vs a divisional foe. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Oddsmaker ERROR* Aaron Rodgers is a tremendous quarterback, and he makes this Green Bay team tons better, but I think this is a difficult spot for the Packers. 

The Panthers have an elite pass rush, and the Packers offensive line ranks among the three worst in the NFL in protecting the quarterback. That means Rodgers is going to be under pressure a bunch here and he'll be taking shots. He isn't likely to want to scramble around much here, and that is part of what makes him so great.

The Panthers running game has started working of late. Cam Newton has gotten more involved in the running game, and that has been a huge key to this team's success of late.

Green Bay's defense is allowing 5.6 yards per play. This is a unit that simply isn't very good. While Rodgers is going to make this team a lot better, he can't do everything for them.

The oddsmakers are disrespecting the Panthers here. This isn't an easy matchup for Green Bay, and Rodgers is amazing, but he will be tested in a big way against a good secondary and great pass rush.

With the heavy juice on the -2.5 right now, I choose to take the moneyline instead. I see Carolina taking care of business at home here.

Take Carolina. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Washington Redskins have nothing to play for at this point. Washington showed promise early in the season, but injuries derailed this team. The offensive line is banged up and Kirk Cousins is without his three best skill position players on offense. This leaves Cousins to do way too much and here he'll be up against an excellent secondary. 

Arizona is giving up only 4.9 yards per carry on the season. The Cardinals have done a good job grinding out close victories of late. While the offense is nothing special, I do think they can get enough done against a Washington defense that gives up 5.6 yards per play. 

The Redskins are 11-28-2 ATS in their last 41 home games versus a team with a losing record. I don't think the Redskins have much motivation here. Grab the points.

Take Arizona.

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle Crusher* Both the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns are much improved on offense from earlier this season. Alex Collins has turned into a nice weapon for the Baltimore offense and that has taken some pressure off of Joe Flacco. 

On the Cleveland side, the Browns have a strong group of wide receivers now with Coleman and Gordon both healthy. The Browns haven't been very good in the red zone in recent weeks but their yards per play numbers suggest drastic improvement. 

This total is set awfully low. Baltimore's defense was on the field an extremely long time against Pittsburgh last weekend. There could definitely be some tired bodies on that side of the ball for the Ravens. Baltimore's offense has been much more aggressive in the last few weeks and they should be able to hit some long gainers against this Browns defense. 

The over is 6-0 in the Ravens last 6 games in the month of December. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 10-0 angle.

Take the over.

*3 Star NFL Saturday Totals SMASHER* The Detroit Lions have played 6 straight games that have gone over this total. Eight of their last nine have gone over this number. Detroit's defense ranks second to last in the NFL in total defense in the last eight games. 

Chicago's offense has been bad for much of the year, but the Bears broke out with a terrific offensive performance in Cincinnati last week. The thinking here is John Fox will likely be a little more aggressive in the play calling after a good showing. Chicago ran the ball at will against Detroit in the first matchup.

Matt Stafford has been very good against the Bears. This game is being played inside the dome, so there is no weather to contend in this game. Stafford threw for 299 yards on 31 passes in the first game against Chicago.

This is a low number for a Detroit game, and I'm siding with the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. The AFC North is well known for its hard hitting style and these two teams are definitely that style. 

In the AFC North, the under is a whopping 56-29 (66%) on games with a total of 41 or higher since 2004. 

The weather here will play a bit of a role too. The wind is expected to be 12 mph during this one. That's enough to make it a little harder to throw the ball deep.

The Steelers are clearly short handed at linebacker, but Baltimore's offense has been really bad this year. The Ravens are dead last in the NFL in yards per play. On the other hand, Baltimore is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

Both teams have an excellent pass rush, and that will make the quarterbacks get rid of the ball quicker than normal. 

The under is 19-8 in the Steelers last 27 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 between these teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers and Minnesota Vikings meet in what should be a really good game on Sunday afternoon. The Vikings have been the most consistent defense in the NFL. Adjusted for strength of schedule- the Vikings defense is second against the pass and third against the run. Carolina's offense has been below average all year in the passing game, and they aren't getting enough out of the running backs in the running game.

Minnesota's offense has been solid this year, but they don't move particularly fast. They have a lot of long drives that eat up the time. Carolina ranks as the third slowest team in the NFL, so the Panthers definitely use up the clock as well.

The under is 20-6 in the Vikings last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. 

I expect a hard fought game that stays under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Green Bay Packers rank 27th in the NFL in yards per play since Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. Green Bay has to rely on their running game, but the strength of this Cleveland defense is their rushing defense. Cleveland ranks in the top five in rushing defense when measured by advanced metrics. 

The Browns have been really bad on offense again this year. Yes, they have better weapons on the outside now with Gordon and Coleman. I don't see them doing a ton of damage here though for two reasons: Kizer is their quarterback, and second the wind is going to be a big factor.

In the NFL, games with a total of 38 or higher with winds of 10 mph or higher have gone under the total a little better than 57% of the time in the past ten years. The wind makes a difference in Cleveland even more than most stadiums. This stadium is very close to the lake, and the wind can swirl around here easily.

Expect two conservative game plans and the defenses will have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Monday Night Football MONEY* The Cincinnati Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. This is an AFC North rivalry. There is definitely a lot of hatred between these two teams. 

The AFC North has been notorious for hard hitting football and tight low scoring games in recent years. Here's an impressive and simple system for this division:

-Playing the under on a game between AFC North foes where the total is 41 or higher has yielded a 56-28 (66.7%) win rate for the under in the last 84 contests.

Pittsburgh's defense is the strength of the team this year. The Bengals rank fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

The Steelers running game hasn't been as good this year and Big Ben's play has been inconsistent. The Bengals don't have a running game, and I don't trust Andy Dalton in the big game.

A big plus here is the weather too- wind of 15 mph is expected during this one with a chance of a little rain as well. The wind is a big positive for the under.

The under is 13-4 in Pittsburgh's last 17 vs. an AFC North opponent. The under is 12-4 in the Bengals last 16 vs. an AFC North foe.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Chargers offense struggled to get going for much of the year, but they have gotten healthier in recent weeks and they are playing great right now. Phillip Rivers is still a very good quarterback, and he has plenty of weapons around him. 

The Browns defense has been pretty good against the run this year, but they are very weak against the pass. A big key here is Cleveland is without star linebacker Jamie Collins and DL Emmanuel Ogbah. 

Cleveland's offense has been inconsistent, but Josh Gordon will return in this one, and the Chargers have given up quite a few big plays defensively this season. 

These teams both play at a pace quicker than the league average. 

The over is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 road games.

I see the Chargers scoring a lot here and the Browns scoring plenty to get this past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't normally a team I'd lay this many points with, but I think the matchups here warrant it. 

Jacksonville has the best pass rush in the NFL. Indianapolis has been the worst in the NFL when it comes to pass protection, and it really isn't even close. What happened the first time these two met? Jacksonville had a whopping ten sacks. 

Indianapolis is coming off a deflating loss where they actually led much of the game. Jacksonville is coming off a loss in Arizona. I think this is a better spot for Jacksonville to get back on track.

Jacksonville runs the football well and the Colts should struggle to stop them. The first time around it was a blowout when these two met. I don't think it will be close here either.

The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Jaguars. A 10-0 angle.

Take Jacksonville. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Minnesota defense is equally strong against the pass and the run. There is no weakness in this unit. Atlanta's defense is surprisingly 10th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They are clearly improved on defense from last season. Also, Atlanta's offensive efficiency isn't quite what it was a year ago. Matt Ryan does miss Kyle Shanahan. 

Neither of these teams play particularly fast. The Vikings are a touch faster than the league average and the Falcons are a bit slower than the league average. 

I expect both offenses will find it harder to break big plays than normal in this one. This is a pretty high total in today's NFL. 

This is a measuring stick game for both teams. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Green Bay Packers are averaging only 13.4 points per game since Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. Brett Hundley hasn't been the answer, and the offensive line is banged up. The Packers are also without Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery is doubtful. This offense is badly beaten up. 

Pittsburgh's defense has been consistently very good this year. The Steelers have ranked in the top five or six in nearly every defensive statistic this season. I don't see them giving up much here.

The Green Bay defense has been improved in recent weeks. Ben Roethlisberger has been sick this week and is listed as probable here, but he's less than 100 percent. The Steelers offensive line hasn't been getting as much of a push in the running game this season.

Both of these teams have been slowing much slower than the league average in pace of play.

In the last 3 years, NFL home teams who are favored by 13 points or more at home with a total of less than 48 points have seen the under go a perfect 9-0. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 games after throwing for 250 yards or more last game. A 14-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Tampa Bay Bucs catch the Atlanta Falcons in a tough spot here. Atlanta is coming off a Monday night win in Seattle. That was a big win for the Falcons, and they were on an emotional high Monday night.

Now, the Falcons must come home and play a Tampa Bay team that isn't very good after that huge win. It's clearly a letdown spot. More importantly, they have a short week to get ready. 

Tampa Bay is healthier now than they were a few weeks ago, and the Bucs have put together a couple wins in a row.

Here's an angle I like a lot in this one- fading teams coming off playing Seattle. That has been a great angle in the past few years and it is especially strong when fading a team that is favored in their next game. Fading a team off a game vs. the physical Seattle Seahawks that is favored and doesn't have a bye week before their next game has gone 50-26 ATS in the last 76 contests.

I'll grab the points here with the Bucs. They'll probably lose, but I think it stays closer than expected.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star NFL Red HOT CASH* The Eagles are coming off a really big win at Dallas last weekend. That's a rivalry game where Philly puts a bunch into that contest. It would be easy for the Eagles to let up a little here.

Chicago isn't very good on offense. They are extremely reliant on the running game. The strength of the Eagles defense is their front seven. Philadelphia is very likely to stack up the box and dare Chicago to beat them through the air. The Eagles pass rush is elite and the Bears offensive line has struggled in pass protection.

The Bears defense is really underrated. This is a unit that has kept the Bears in a lot of games this season. The Eagles will move the ball here as they always do, but I think the Bears slow them down and hold them to field goals more often than normal.

The weather here looks less than ideal. Winds of 13 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph are forecast for this contest. That's a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Lions/Vikings ATS CASH* The Detroit Lions went to Minnesota and won earlier this year. I think Minnesota returns the favor here. Detroit was outgained by Minnesota in that first game, but the Vikings lost three fumbles in that one. They are unlikely to do that again.

Since the first time they met, the Vikings have been playing much better. Detroit has been outgained in 7 of their 10 games this year. The Lions are certainly fortunate to be 6-4 on the season. What about Minnesota? The Vikings have outgained their opponent in 9 of 10 games this season. 

Minnesota ranks third in yards per play allowed. The Vikings defense is very good against both the run and the pass. Detroit is one dimensional on offense with the passing game being the only way they typically move the ball. Minnesota's defensive line should overpower Detroit here. 

Detroit's defense is 25th in yards per play allowed. The Lions aren't a really good team, and the sharp money has come in on Minnesota here. I agree with that move, and I'll back the team with the much better defense and some balance on offense.

Detroit is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play on Philadelphia Eagles* The Dallas Cowboys are saying Sean Lee will likely miss this game. Lee is the heart and soul of this defense, and their numbers without him are drastically worse than they are with him on the field. 

Tyron Smith is questionable, and I would guess he either won't play here or won't be himself. He has multiple injuries and has been very hobbles. Dallas allowed 8 sacks Sunday against Atlanta after allowing a grand total of 10 all season before the Atlanta game.

The Eagles are coming off a bye week and should be well prepared here. I've been extremely impressed by the balance of this Eagles offense. Carson Wentz is the real deal and he's surrounded by some very good weapons. I like the addition of Jay Ajayi.

Dallas is a good team when healthy, but they are likely to be without several stars here.

Lay the points with the rested and healthy Eagles.

Take Philadelphia. 

*As the injury news has come in- this line has risen. I do still like Philly here as Dallas is without several very key players to their team. Thank you. * 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The New England Patriots play the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City this week. This game is played at elevation, and that's a major factor. 

The Patriots are an organization that gets an edge every way they can, and it shows by their success on the field. New England is spending the week in Colorado and practicing at elevation so they are well prepared for the conditions.

New England's offense has been excellent in recent weeks. They are going up against an Oakland secondary that is without both of their starting cornerbacks. That should be a big problem against Tom Brady and this offense.

I consider Jack Del Rio one of the worst coaches in the NFL. We all know where Bill Belichick stands when it comes to the coaching ranks.

I expect this line to go up further, so I'm grabbing this one now.

New England's offense takes advantage of a banged up Oakland defense and rolls to a victory.

Take New England. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots have the number one ranked pass offense in terms of efficiency. Who has the worst ranked pass defense in the NFL in terms of efficiency? The Oakland Raiders. Tom Brady should have a big game here, and I expect New England to be put up a big number.

Oakland's pass rush has been poor this year, and New England has been blocking well. When Brady has this much time to throw against a weak secondary, that generally equals great things for the Patriots offense.

Derek Carr has looked healthier of late, and the Patriots pass defense ranks 30th. Carr should hook up with his receivers in the open field several times as well.

The elevation is a positive in Mexico City in my mind for points. Tired defenses generally lead to blown assignments. 

I like this to be a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have played four games at home this year. The highest scoring game was 23-17 (in overtime) against Pittsburgh and 23-17 against Atlanta in the season opener.

The Bears have an ultra-conservative offense now. They aren't taking many chances with Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears have the second highest running plays as a percentage of their overall offensive plays in the NFL behind only the Jaguars. 

Detroit's secondary isn't very good, but the Lions rank top ten in the NFL at stopping the run. Detroit should be ready for the running game here.

Chicago's defense has been solid in all ways this year. Detroit is awfully one-dimensional with the passing game, and with the weather forecast here that could be trouble.

There is a storm coming through Chicago this weekend and 20 mph winds are forecast at Soldier Field on Sunday. That will impact the game and make throwing more difficult and both teams will likely run more than normal.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The weather forecast in Cleveland calls for 25 mph winds coming off the lake during this game. There is also a chance of snow showers throughout this one. This will be really bad conditions, and history has shown that conditions like this are great for the under.

Winds of 10 mph or more with totals of 35 or higher and a temperature of 78 or lower- the under is 57.5% in the last ten years. What about at Cleveland? In Cleveland, the under is 10-2 in the last 12 games with the wind at 10 mph or greater and temperatures of below 50 degrees. The wind changes the game at First Energy Stadium more than the average stadium in the league.

50% of the tickets written to this point are on the under, but 90% of the money is on the under. The sharps love this one and I see the value too.

The Jaguars will run the ball a ton here, but Cleveland ranks top five in the NFL in rushing defense. 

The under is 4-0 in the Jags last 4 vs. the AFC. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 250 yards or more passing. The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 on grass. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Dallas Cowboys won't have Ezekiel Elliot here, but this is still a good team. In fact, with Sean Lee in the lineup on defense, I believe this is a very good Cowboys team.

What have the Falcons proven so far this year? Atlanta was very fortunate to beat the Lions early in the year. The Falcons lost at home to both the Bills and the Dolphins. They were beaten badly by New England. Atlanta was terrific last year, but they haven't proven much this season.

Dallas' defense is in my estimation a little better than Atlanta's. The Cowboys are a different unit with Lee on the field. Atlanta's primary weakness on defense is stopping the run, and Dallas should have little trouble running the ball here even without Elliot. The Cowboys offensive front is tremendous. 

Kyle Shanahan is definitely missed by Atlanta. The offense hasn't been as efficient this year, and that starts with numbers that are way down for Matt Ryan. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a loss. 

I'll grab the points in a game that should be very close.

Take Dallas. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has easily been the best in the NFL against the pass. The LA Chargers are throwing the ball on 62.4% of their plays so far this year. The Chargers offensive line has performed well this year, but Jacksonville has been best in the league in rushing the passer. Rivers will have less time than normal to throw here. The Jags secondary should make LA struggle far more than normal through the air.

The Jaguars run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They are running it on almost 53% of their plays on offense. Look for them to run the ball and go on long drives that eat up a lot of clock here. Jacksonville has struggled to punch it in the end zone consistently, and that likely continues here. The Chargers defense ranks 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three contests.

There is clear sharp money here on the under, and I agree. I think both defenses play well in this one.

The under is 5-0 in the Chargers last 5 vs. the AFC.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Jets offense has been surprisingly good on offense this year. They have averaged almost 28 points per game in their last three contests (including one played in a driving rainstorm against Atlanta two weeks ago). The Jets passing attack has been an area of strength of late, and they are going up against the worst passing defense in the NFL here. 

The Jets defense is still a problem with their pass secondary being the biggest weakness. While some might consider Fitzpatrick a huge step down from Winston, I'm not sure the dropoff is that big. Winston has been injured and inconsistent this year. 

The Bucs have scored 25 points or more in half their games this year. Tampa Bay is capable on offense.

I think this is a game between two teams who aren't very good defensively at keeping plays in front of them. Look for a lot of big plays from the offenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Arizona Cardinals showed us a blueprint of what they want to try do in their win against San Francisco last week. Adrian Peterson had 37 carries in that game. That's a career high for Peterson, who is an old man in running back years. It's hard to imagine him being as good as he was last game, especially since he is up against a much better defense this time around. Clearly, Arizona doesn't feel very comfortable with Stanton under center, and I don't think Seattle will give up very many against them here.

Russell Wilson is excellent, but he has a very bad offensive line in front of him. The Arizona defense is pretty good, and their numbers have been much better at home in recent seasons than on the road. Seattle's offense has no running game and Lacy is out for this one as well.

There is a good system for Thursday night games in the NFL. When both teams are off only 4 days of rest and it is a division game in week 9 or later: the under is 16-5 in the last 21 games. 

I think we are in for another low scoring contest here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Chiefs/Cowboys CASH* The Dallas Cowboys will have Ezekiel Elliot for this one. There's a real chance this will be last game though before serving a suspension. Dallas should run the ball very well here. Kansas City ranks 30th in the league in run defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Dallas' rushing attack is number. Kansas City's defense has been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL. 

The Cowboys defense isn't good, but it is much better now than it had been. Sean Lee being back in the fold helps this defense a bunch, and I expect their numbers to generally improve gradually. 

Kansas City has two key offensive linemen listed as questionable here. Justin Houston is also questionable.

Dallas is the healthier team. In addition, Dallas has the rest advantage and more prep time since Kansas City played on Monday night.

Take Dallas. 

*4 Star Play on Seattle Seahawks* The Seattle Seahawks host the Washington Redskins on Sunday afternoon. Seattle is 66-45-4 ATS (59.5%) at home in the past ten years. Seattle is 61.3% ATS at home in the past ten years at home when they are against a team with a win percentage of 60% or lower. 

Seattle's offense has been getting quite a few explosive plays of late. The wide receivers are playing better this year, and Russell Wilson is playing at a very high level. 

Though the Seahawks defense aren't what they used to be, this is still a good defense. 

A big key here is the mass of injuries to the Washington offensive line. This line is torn apart by injuries right now. Kirk Cousins is playing behind a makeshift offensive line, and that will be a problem here. Jordan Reed is doubtful here too and that's a massive loss to the passing game. 

Seattle is in a good spot to pick up a big win over an injury ravaged Washington team.

Take Seattle. 

***THIS IS NO LONGER A RECOMMENDED PLAY DUE TO THE DESHAUN WATSON INJURY***

*3 Star Play on Bengals* The Jacksonville Jaguars are a much improved team. There is no doubt about that. I backed Jacksonville a couple weeks ago against Indianapolis and cashed, but this line doesn't make much sense to me. The pendulum has swung too far the other way now. This is a team that was given no respect for a while, and now people are jumping on the bandwagon very fast. 

Jacksonville has a great pass defense. They have a great pass rush. The Jaguars are not good against the run. Jacksonville's offense is good at running the ball, but I expect this strong Bengals defensive front to do a good enough job stopping the run to make Blake Bortles make some plays. I don't trust Bortles to make those plays. A team with Bortles at quarterback can't be favored by 6 against another team that is solid (I consider the Bengals middle of the road in the NFL).

I'll take the points. 

The Jaguars are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 following a win. They are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The weather here should play a role. Nashville's forecast for Sunday is for 15 mph with gusts of 25 mph. That's plenty to make it much harder to throw the football. Neither one of these teams are very good at throwing the ball to start with, but the weather should make them even more one dimensional. 

Joe Flacco is cleared to play here, but he has been terrible this season. Flacco has a QBR better than one quarterback in the NFL (Kizer of the Browns). The Titans will load up the box here.

Tennessee's rushing attack is solid, but the Ravens front seven is a good unit. I think they'll keep the Titans running game from breaking out.

Both teams play slower than the league average and with a lot of run the clock will be ticking away.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eagles offense has been excellent this year, but this is the best defense they have played. Denver's defensive numbers are a little tricky, since the offense has been so bad that it has put them in terrible positions. This is still a top two or three defense in the NFL. 

The move to Brock Osweiler likely helps the under. He is less likely to throw terrible interceptions than Siemian, but he is also less likely to make impressive throws. I consider him the more conservative option. 

Philadelphia's defense is healthier now than they were, and they should be solid against a Denver team that is likely to run the ball a lot here.

Both teams have very good pass rushes compared to the offensive pass protection against them. Look for both quarterbacks to be under pressure throughout this game.

I see both offenses struggling to get into the end zone here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Monday Night Money* The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos in this AFC West clash on Monday night. 

Kansas City is coming off two straight losses. The Chiefs will be anxious to right the ship and I think that means an improved defensive effort here. Kansas City's pass rush should be able to get pressure in this game, and Trevor Siemian has been really poor under pressure.

Denver's defense is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Denver's offense has had serious problems this year, but the defense is still elite. 

Denver and Kansas City are very familiar with each other, and familiarity helps the defenses. 

Division home favorites of 7 points or more have seen their games go under the total at a rate of 19-4 in the last 23 when the total is 41 or higher.

Tony Corrente's crew works this game, and they are the best under crew in the game. The under is 81-60 in their games (57.5%).

Expect a hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Dallas Cowboys defense expects to get Sean Lee back for this game. Lee is the most important player on this defense, and I expect him to make a difference right away. 

Washington is coming off a disappointing loss on Monday Night Football against the Eagles. The Redskins are expected to get Josh Norman back at CB here, and that's a big boost to their defense.

This is a divisional rivalry where there are often a bunch of close games. This one has an extra wrinkle in that the weather is expected to be a major problem. The forecast calls for rain and 15-25 mph winds with gusts to 30 mph in this one.

How much does wind hurt scoring in these divisional games in the NFL? With wind of 10 mph or higher and a total of 40 or higher: the under is a whopping 115-71 in the last 186 situations. That's 62% unders.

With the total here set at a pretty high number and both teams getting back key defenders combined with the weather here- I think the under holds significant value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets square off in a game that is expected to be played in miserable weather conditions. 

The forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for a 100% chance of rain with heavy downpours and winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 mph. That is some brutal weather. It's a clear plus for the under.

What does that mean? It should mean more conservative play calling from both teams. It should mean the defenses are ready for the run, because it will be very difficult to throw the ball efficiently in a game like this.

The Falcons offense hasn't been the same with Shanahan at OC. The Jets offense is very inconsistent. 

With the weather as big factor, I'm on the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Take a look at the injury report for this game and you'll see a bunch of key names from the defensive side on both teams are out. Both secondaries are very thin for this one. Oakland's secondary is missing two of their top three corners. 

Derek Carr and the Raiders offense were great last game, and I expect Oakland's offense to be much better now that Carr is healthy again. He is a budding star in the league, and he has plenty of weapons around him.

Tyrod Taylor is capable of making big plays, and he's up against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL here. Buffalo's tempo has consistently ranked in the top five in the NFL as well.

Look for a close game with both offenses having quite a bit of success.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Denver Broncos are coming off a really bad performance against the New York Giants this past Sunday night. Denver was a massive favorite and no one gave the Giants a chance. The Giants go in and win easily, and now this line has moved from the look ahead line significantly. Denver was slated to be a -2.5 or -3 favorite and now some books are showing Denver +1.

It's important to remember that the Chargers have no home field advantage. It won't be a surprise if there are more Broncos fans than Chargers fans in the stands for this one. 

Phillip Rivers is an ugly 3-16 ATS in his last 19 home games against divisional foes. The Broncos are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road divisional games.

Denver has the much better defense, and I think the Broncos bounce back here against a Chargers team that often finds ways to lose close games.

Take Denver. 

*3 Star NFL Red Hot CASH* The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't a team I want to lay points with very often, but I do think this is a good matchup for them.

Indianapolis played Monday night, so Jacksonville has had more time to get ready for this game. The Colts run defense ranks 18th in the NFL at this point, but if you factor in who they have played thus far I think the run defense for Indianapolis is even worse than that.

The Jaguars are going to run the football here. They have been doing it well in recent contests, and I think they'll have success again here.  Jacksonville is second in the NFL at 5.0 yards per carry on the season.

The Jaguars defense is the biggest reason I like this play. They are elite at pass rushing and defending the pass. The Colts offensive line has struggled with injuries, and they are no match for the Jacksonville defensive front. 

I'll lay the field goal with the better defense and the much better run game, especially with them having a preparation advantage.

Take Jacksonville. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Green Bay Packers start Brett Hundley here as Aaron Rodgers is out indefinitely with an injury. That's obviously a massive loss, and I expect the Packers to have a much more conservative game plan ready for this one. 

New Orleans had an extremely high scoring game filled with defensive and special teams touchdowns last week. That has inflated this total a bit.

The weather here should be a factor. The forecast calls for 15 mph winds and a 70% chance of rain during the game. Wind combined with rain is definitely a plus for the under. 

The New Orleans passing game isn't likely to be quite as effective in those conditions. 

Green Bay is better defensively at home, and the Saints aren't as good offensively on the road. The weather combines with a new QB for the Packers to create value on the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Undervalued ATS WINNER*  The Green Bay Packers are coming off a national tv win over the Dallas Cowboys. Public perception of the Packers have gotten too high after that game. This is still a Packers team with a ton of key injuries. Aaron Rodgers is as good as ever, but the rest of the roster is awfully shorthanded.

The Minnesota Vikings have a really good home field advantage. In fact, the Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games. The Vikings are much better in the trenches than the Packers, and most NFL games are won in the trenches. 

Look for the Vikings defense to make some key plays in this one. Case Keenum has been decent as the Vikings' quarterback, and I think the Vikings have a very underrated coaching staff.

Grab the points with the home team.

Take Minnesota. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle SMASHER*  The Washington Redskins' offense is very balanced this year. Kirk Cousins has upped his play this season, and I think it's largely because of an improved supporting cast. 

The 49ers defense has typically played well at home but very poorly on the road. San Francisco is weak in the secondary, and the Redskins have plenty of weapons to take advantage of that weakness. 

I'm not convinced the Washington defense is all that good, and San Francisco's offense has shown glimpses of their potential. Look for them to air it out here and complete some big plays. 

The over is 7-0 in the Redskins' last 7 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in the 49ers last 4 during Week 6 of the season. An 11-0 angle. 

Take the over.

*3 Star NFL ATS Bookie CRUSHER*  The Detroit Lions enter this game with a bunch of key injuries. Matthew Stafford has been playing well, but he is badly banged up now. Expect him to try to play but he will have a hard time playing up to his full potential. 

New Orleans comes off a bye week, and that helped them enter this game much healthier than the Lions. Drew Brees has always been great at home, and I don't think this Lions' defense is good enough to slow down New Orleans very often. 

The Saints' defense is far from top notch, but they are certainly better than they were in past years. With the Lions being very reliant on the passing game, expect the Saints to get pressure on Stafford. 

The Saints are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games versus a team with a winning road record. The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 following a bye week. 

Take New Orleans.

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Kansas City Chiefs offense has gone back to being much more conservative in recent weeks. Kansas City is throwing a bunch of short passes and not stretching the field. 

Kansas City also ranks dead last in the NFL in terms of pace of play. The Chiefs use up a bunch of time in between plays, which is obviously helpful to the under. 

The Houston Texans scored a bunch of points on a bad Titans defense last week, but I don't expect a repeat here. I like Watson, but I don't think it will just come easily for the rookie quarterback. 

Both defensive lines should be able to apply a lot of pressure on the quarterback here. That means less time to sit in the pocket and let long passing plays develop.

Both teams play slower than the league average and both teams run the ball more than the league average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks and LA Rams meet on Sunday afternoon. These two both rank in the top five in the NFL in terms of pace of play in neutral situations. Both teams should keep the pace moving in this one. 

The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play. The Seahawks are 13th in the NFL in yards per play. The Rams are 27th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.7. The Seahawks are 13th at 5.2. Seattle's defense has been much better at home than on the road.

This is a series that has been filled with a bunch of low scoring close games. That's why I see value on the over here. Why? The Rams are a completely different team this year. The offense is now dynamic and playing fast. Under Jeff Fisher in previous years, the Rams offense played slowly and was awful almost all the time.

I believe the oddsmakers are underrating how big of a change there has been in LA. Also, the Seattle defense is clearly not as good as they were a couple years ago. Russell Wilson has more weapons in the passing game than he did last year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Cincinnati Bengals are a desperate team. Cincinnati blew the game against Green Bay. They bounced back and thumped the Browns on the road last week. Now, the Bengals need this win to get back to 2-3. Cincinnati has a bye week next weekend, so all effort should be put into this game.

The Buffalo Bills stunned the Atlanta Falcons last week on the road. They have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. Truthfully though, the statistics suggest that Buffalo isn't as good of a team as they look by their record. Other than their win against the lowly Jets, the Bills have been outgained every week. Buffalo won despite being outgained by 94 yards against Denver. They were outgained by 108 yards against Atlanta. They aren't likely to be this fortunate all the time.

The public is on the Bills here. 60% of the tickets on the Bills. On the other hand, 60% of the money is on the Bengals. The sharps like Cincinnati and I agree.

Take the Cincinnati Bengals. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The New York Giants were 11-5 last year. Yes, this team is worse than it was last year, but it isn't as much worse as most people think right now. Also, I believe this team has plenty of pride, and that started to show at the end of the game against the Eagles when the offense showed up in fourth quarter.

Odell Beckham Jr. is finally starting to get pretty healthy. That makes a world of difference for this offense. Tampa Bay's defense is badly banged up right now as well. The Bucs will be without star linebacker Lavonte David. Gerald McCoy and Brent Grimes will both try to play, but they are less than 100 percent. Safety T.J. Ward is doubtful for this one.

Jameis Winston makes some terrible decisions with the football, and this Giants secondary is very good. Don't be surprised if they pull off a couple picks here in key spots. This Giants defense is still a very good unit.

The Bucs are 1-8 in their last 9 games laying 2.5 points or more. They are 22-45-1 ATS in their last 68 home games. 

Take the New York Giants here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Rams are fourth in the NFL in tempo. I really like the way this new offense is working, and they are able to take advantage of Jared Goff's strengths in this new system. It's clear that Jeff Fisher and the previous coaching staff were holding Goff back.

The Rams have some good weapons on offense in Watkins, Kupp, and Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play on the year at 6.6 (behind only Kansas City). 

Dallas is middle of the pack in the offensive stats so far this year, but they have faced three top ten defenses so far this year. The Rams are still transitioning over to a new system, and it is clear that they aren't quite ready for this yet.

Dallas plays at an average tempo, while the Rams rank fourth in the NFL in pace. 

This will be the best offense the Cowboys have played so far this year. I see both teams scoring quite a few here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Patriots* I don't like laying this many points in the NFL very often, but I think this is a good spot. The Carolina Panthers offense is a hot mess right now. Cam Newton isn't 100 percent, and the team has flat out told him not to run. That limits him quite a bit. Greg Olson being out is a big hit to the offense, and Kelvin Benjamin is expected to play, but he isn't 100 percent either.

Carolina's offense has looked miserable in two straight games. The fact that they were stopped cold at home by the worst defense in the NFL (Saints) last week was alarming. 

New England is coming off a very close call. In fact, it was a game at home against Houston that they probably should have lost. Don't expect the Patriots to come out slow in this one. The Panthers were in the Super Bowl a couple years ago, and I think they'll have the Patriots full attention here.

In non-division games in week four in the last ten years, favorites of 7.5 points or more are 21-10 ATS. The Patriots are in that spot here. 

I think we can count on the Patriots to put up 30 points or so here. Can the Panthers get to 21? I wouldn't count on it.

Take New England. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* What's been the best conference to under bettors in recent history? Easily the AFC North. It makes a lot of sense to me. When you have teams like the Steelers and Ravens leading the way year after year, you'll have a bunch of hard hitting defensive contests. 

Since the 2004-2005 season, games with a total of 41 or higher in the AFC North have gone 55-27 to the under. That's 67.1% unders.

The Steelers haven't been the same offense on the road the last few years. The Steelers are also dead last in the NFL in rushing yards so far this year. Le'Veon Bell showing up late seems to have hurt the running game. 

The Ravens offense is a mess in the passing game. Joe Flacco isn't healthy and he doesn't have many weapons on the outside either.

The Ravens are tied for last in the NFL in yards per play. The Steelers are only 20th in yards per play as well.

The under is 7-0 in the Steelers last 7 road games against an AFC North foe. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 when the underdog in the game is off a neutral site loss. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 games in the NFL where a favorite of 3 or more from their last game lost by 35 points or more (Ravens). A 16-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Green Bay Packers offense is riddled with injuries right now. The fact that they have to play on Thursday night can't have made the coaching staff very happy when they are so badly banged up. They needed the full time to recover.

While the injury to Randall Cobb (questionable) gets more attention, the Packers offensive line problems are the biggest issue here. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 13 times already this year, and the team has multiple backups injured on the offensive front as well. No one unit in the NFL is more banged up than this Packers offensive line.

Mike Glennon is a mess at quarterback for the Bears. He never throws the ball downfield, which greatly limits the Bears upside on offense, and it hurts Jordan Howard's ability to run the ball as well since he can't stretch the defense with his arm. 

Green Bay has slowed their pace down a bunch this year (likely due to injuries). They rank 22nd in the league in tempo. Chicago ranks 31st in the league in pace. 

The slow pace here is a key and the defensive lines having the advantage is as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs are first in the NFL in yards per play at 7.6. That is a full yard better than the second best team in the NFL so far this season.

Kansas City is a much better offense than they have been in the past. Alex  Smith is able to be more aggressive now because he has the weapons around him. With Tyreek Hill as a big play option on the outside and Kareem Hunt making a big splash in the backfield, the Chiefs have home run threats all around. Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and I don't think the Chargers have anyone who can cover him. Los Angeles is without Verrett at cornerback, and this is a game where they will badly miss him.

The LA Chargers are still good on offense with Rivers competing at a high level. The offense around him is a lot healthier than it has been at most times in the past few years. The Chargers are 10th in the NFL in yards per play.

Expect a lot of big plays from both teams in this one. Perception of the Chiefs still being a defensive team that plays low scoring games has held this number down. The over is 4-0 in KC's last 4 road games. 

Take the over.

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Seattle Seahawks are 0-2 ATS so far this year. Some people are ready to give up on Seattle (obviously based on this number), but I still think this team can be a contender. Why? They have a tremendous defense, a very good quarterback, and a very good coach. Sure, they have shortcomings in other areas, but those three things will get you a long way in the NFL.

The Tennessee Titans have to prove to me that they have taken the next step. They were beaten soundly at home in week one against the Raiders. Tennessee isn't a bad team, but I don't think they should be laying a field goal against a team with the upside of the Seahawks. 

The Titans are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 games at home. Tennessee is 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 following a win. 

Seattle is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when on a two or more game ATS losing streak. 

I think Seattle's defense has a big game here, and I see this being a close game. I'll take the 3 points with the better defense and the team with a bunch of veteran leadership.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Over* Two good quarterbacks with a lot of weapons around them face defenses without a bunch of key players in this one. 

Vic Beasley and Courtney Upshaw are expected to miss this one for Atlanta, and those are two key guys. That should give Matt Stafford more time to throw. Stafford has proven at this point that he is a very good quarterback when given time to throw.

On the Detroit side, Jarrod Davis is expected to miss this one and that is huge since I consider him one of the most important players on this team. Safety Tavon Wilson is a key guy who would have played a major role in slowing down the Falcons pass attack, but he's expected to miss this one too.

Non-divisional overs of 52.5 or lower in domes have cashed at 56% in the NFL between week 2 and week 12 (the percentage gets lower late in the year as games mean more).

Both of these are big play offenses, and I expect some blown assignments and lapses by the defenses in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The LA Rams are going to play fast this year. They have a brand new coach and system, and it already showed to be a big positive for Jared Goff. Goff definitely has potential, and he has good weapons now in Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp. Todd Gurley is still a quality runner as well. I think the Rams offense is much improved this year.

The Redskins have a bottom six or eight defense in the NFL, and I think the Rams can have another nice game here on offense. 

The Rams are dealing with a bunch of injuries in the secondary right now. The Redskins didn't look great in week one on offense, but I think they'll be better here. They still have a solid amount of talent at the wide receiver spots.

In weeks 2 and 3 in the NFL, when the total is 45.5 or lower, and wind speeds are forecasted to average 9 mph or less, the over is 132-95 in the last 227 contests. 

Jerome Bogers' is the main referee here. He has been an over machine because his crew calls a lot of pass interference and holding on the defensive secondary. The over is 76-58 (56.7%) in Bogers' games as referee.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Sharp Money Side* The Indianapolis Colts were absolutely throttled last week by the LA Rams. They couldn't have possibly looked any worse. Scott Tolzien was absolutely awful, and finally the team realized they have to bench him. Jacoby Brissett gets the start this week, and he can't do any worse than Tolzien. He has question marks, but he has a higher upside as well.

NFL teams typically bounce back after blowout losses. How about this system? Teams who lost by 19 points or more last game and are getting 33% of the spread bets or less (the Colts are getting 28% as of Saturday morning when I type this) are cashing at a 58% clip in the past ten years. Apply a filter of a home underdog of 3 points or more and the win rate jumps to 61% ATS.

The sharp money is clearly on Indianapolis here. Currently, more than 65% of the money is on the Colts here despite only 28% of the bets being on them.

Carson Palmer is near the end of his career, and the Cardinals just lost one of the best running backs in the NFL. They also are without John Brown at wide receiver and Mike Iupati on the offensive line this week.

I'm counting on the Colts to show some heart and make this a close one.

Take Indianapolis. 

*4 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The New Orleans Saints defense has consistently been the worst in the NFL the last couple years, and they are likely to be right down there again this season. Sam Bradford threw for 346 yards and beat this secondary deep multiple times in game one. Obviously, Bradford isn't normally a guy who completes deep passes like that, so that is a major warning sign.

Tom Brady and the Patriots offense will definitely have a better plan of attack for this one than they did last game. New England should utilize Gronkowski a lot in this one since New Orleans has struggled with pass catching tight ends in recent years. It's also a spot for Brandin' Cooks to have a big game against his old team.

The Patriots defense looks like they are in trouble this year to me. They allowed Alex Smith far too long to throw last game, and he picked them apart. Now, Dont'a Hightower, the team's most important player on defense, is out for this game. How are things going to improve against Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome? 

Games played in domes in the first two months of the season where the home team is the underdog have gone over the total 61% of the time in the past ten years in the NFL.

The over is 4-0-1 in the Patriots last 5 following a double digit loss at home. The over is 5-0 in the Pats last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in the Saints last 4 games. The over is 13-0 in the last 13 games in the NFL when one team is coming off a Thursday game and another off a Monday game  when the game is week 11 or earlier in the season. Also, in game two of the season, when a non-division team is a home dog of 3.5 points or more and the total is 40 or higher, the over is 12-0. In all, a 38-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Saints ATS* The New Orleans Saints are a big home underdog to the New England Patriots here. 80% of the bets in this game are on the Patriots. The betting public is thinking- how could this Patriots franchise play so badly in two straight games? I'll be the first to say I'm not excited to go against the Patriots at any time, but this number is too inflated for me too pass it up here.

The Patriots are missing Edelman, Amendola and Hightower (LB and best defender) for this game. Those are key.

The Saints are still a very good team at home ATS, and they are almost never disrespected in this way by the oddsmakers on their home field. 

In week 2 and 3 of the NFL season, underdogs of 2.5 points or more who are also getting 38% of public bets or less are hitting at a 58.5% clip in the last ten seasons. 

Drew Brees is 9-1 ATS in his last 10 as a home underdog as a Saint. The Saints also fit a system of home underdogs coming off a week one loss that is 30-14 ATS in the last 44 games.

The Super Bowl Champion from the previous year is also 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games when they are playing their first road game of the season and are favored. 

In a game where I see it be closing all the way, I'll grab the points with the home underdog.

Take New Orleans. 

*3 Star Play on Bears* The Chicago Bears have one game under their belts and I think that is a positive here. Chicago ran the ball really well in week one, and I like Jordan Howard quite a bit in this backfield. 

Tampa Bay is in a very weird situation. They essentially had a bye week on week one, and now are playing their first game. There's a lot of destruction in the area and these players have a lot more on their minds than football right now.

The Bucs are a better team than the Bears, but a full 7 points in this situation doesn't make sense to me. Dogs cover at a high rate in weeks 2 and 3 in the NFL historically, and I think this is a number that has gotten out of control.

The Bucs are 21-45-1 ATS in their last 67 home games.

Take Chicago. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bears are going to run the football early and often in this one. Jordan Howard is a good back and I suspect he'll get a good amount of yards in this game. Still, the Bears don't have good red zone options and as the field tightens up in the red zone I think they'll need to settle for field goals. 

The Atlanta Falcons aren't as good offensively outside the dome and the turf. The Bears defense is better than they showed a year ago. Injuries really held this team back last year. 

I believe Kyle Shanahan moving on will hurt Atlanta's offense at least some in the interim. He really helped Matt Ryan and this offense reach lofty heights. There will likely be some interim growing pains.

The Bears offense is extremely limited in the passing game, and I see this as a high posted total all things considered.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Ravens plan to start Joe Flacco here, but Flacco back has been a big problem all offseason. It's hard to expect a lot from him here. The biggest problem for the Ravens is they have no good option as a backup either.

Andy Dalton is a middle of the road NFL quarterback, and he's up against a good Ravens pass rush here. I don't expect the Bengals to be able to move the ball consistently in this one. 

Games between these two teams are very hard hitting and typically defensive. The highest scoring game of the last three meetings was 40 points. 

I don't expect either team to be playing at a particularly fast pace. Look for both defenses to do a good job forcing their opponent to field goals instead of touchdowns.

In week one in the NFL, conference games with a spread of 4 points or less are 66-39 to the under (63%) in the last 105 contests.

The under is 6-0 in the Bengals last 6 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-0 in the Bengals last 4 games overall. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Value Play* No, I don't think the New York Jets are a good football team. They're going to have a very bad season. Still, I have to back them with this many points against a Buffalo Bills team that isn't good either. 

In week one in the NFL in the past five years, underdogs of 6.5 points or more are cashing at a 60% clip. It makes sense to me. Even bad teams fight hard in week one, because everyone starts 0-0. Later in the season there are plenty of teams who are tanking or at least not putting in the full effort.

Buffalo has all kinds of question marks. They should be good running the football, but McCoy has been dealing with a nagging injury. The Jets defense should be pretty good against the run as well.

Last year, the Jets beat the Bills twice. The sharps are clearly on the Jets in this one. While 55% of the bets are on the Bills, about 80% of the money is on the Jets. I'll back the ugly underdog given this many points.

The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two.

Take the Jets. 

*4 Star Steelers/Patriots ATS CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers have won nine straight games. This team takes a back seat to no one when it comes to talent. Pittsburgh's Le'Veon Bell is the best running back in the NFL. Antonio Brown is the best receiver in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger is certainly a top six or eight NFL quarterback as well. 

The Steelers defense deserves credit for the way they have come on late in the season. Pittsburgh has allowed only 5.2 yards per play in their last three games. They allowed only 4.6 yards per play last week at Kansas City. Pittsburgh has some play makers on this side of the ball as well, and Ryan Shazier is a very underrated linebacker for the Steelers.

New England has faced the second weakest schedule in the NFL this year. The Patriots are obviously an excellent team, but I believe they are getting a little too much credit from the oddsmakers here. Obviously, the oddsmakers have to set the line pretty high, because the Patriots have been so good against the spread, and public bettors are going to want to lay the points with New England. 

While I believe the Patriots defense has been good this year, this is definitely the best offense they have gone up against this season. I'll be surprised if Pittsburgh can't score a solid amount of points here.

I think Pittsburgh has a real shot at winning this thing outright, and I believe this game will go down to the wire, so I definitely like the Steelers and the points.

The Steelers are 13-3-3 ATS in their last 19 January games. The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference championship games.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Steelers/Chiefs CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night in Kansas City. This game time was changed because of the likelihood of freezing rain earlier in the day. 

Even with the time change, the weather won't be good for this game. There is currently listed a 90% chance of rain Sunday night. The wind gusts will be up to 12 mph, which certainly isn't a lot, but it can make it more difficult to throw, especially when combined with the rain. 

The time change did move some people to bet the over, and give us a little more value on the under here. The number was 43.5 earlier today, but has now risen to 45 at several books. 

Ben Roethlisberger was dinged up playing late into the game last week despite the Steelers holding a big lead. Whether he is 100% or not no one really knows, but the weather will make it tougher on him. 

I expect Kansas City to play a little bit of keep away here. They know Pittsburgh's offense is very good, and I think Kansas City will want to win the time of possession battle and keep Le'Veon Bell, Roethlisberger, and Antonio Brown off the field. 

The Chiefs defense excels at rushing the passer, and Justin Houston is healthy now. The Chiefs defense wasn't nearly as healthy in their first meeting of the season with Pittsburgh.

Both of these defenses played their best football late in the year. 

The under is 38-16 in the Chiefs last 54 home games. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Dolphins/Steelers CASH* The Miami Dolphins are 7-2 in their last 9 games. If you take a deeper look at the statistics though, you will see that Miami hasn't been that good during that span. The Dolphins have been outgained in 7 of their last 9 games. They haven't outgained a team by more than 14 yards in the past ten weeks! Miami's defense ranks in the bottom eight in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

Miami was second worst in the NFL at stopping the run. The Dolphins should have trouble slowing down Le'Veon Bell here. The Steelers have Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown all healthy for this playoff showdown.

The Dolphins won at home against Pittsburgh in the regular season, but this Pittsburgh team is playing on a different level right now. 

Miami comes in with a backup quarterback and a beaten up secondary. Pittsburgh is definitely a team capable of making a Super Bowl run. The Steelers should coast to a win in this one. 

It should be noted as well that Pittsburgh played a top five strength of schedule this year, while Miami's was one of the weakest five.

I don't normally lay double digits in the playoffs, but I feel it is warranted here. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star NFL Saturday Wildcard CASH* The Houston Texans start Brock Osweiler in this Wild Card showdown. Do I trust Osweiler? Not really. This play is made in spite of him being at quarterback.

Connor Cook starts for the Oakland Raiders. His first career NFL start comes in the playoffs and on the road. That is certainly not an ideal spot for him. While I don't trust Osweiler, there are at least as many reasons to not trust Cook here. Houston's defense is first in the NFL by a mile in yards per play allowed in the last 3 games of the year. Houston allowed only 4.0 yards per play in those games. There's no doubt this Houston defense is a top ten NFL defense even without Watt, and their secondary is one of the 3 or 4 best in the NFL.

How about the Oakland defense? They are awful. Oakland finished dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed for the year. They gave up 6.1 yards per play. Derek Carr and the offense were able to mask that major weakness, but can Connor Cook? I don't think so. Oakland is giving up 12.56 yards per pass on the year, and the Raiders certainly could give some big plays up here. Houston does have some play making wide receivers.

Huge mismatch when it comes to the defenses, and Houston has a nice home field advantage. The Raiders have no playoff experience, while Houston does have some experience in these spots. 

Take Houston. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Washington Redskins are averaging 6.7 yards per play on the season. Washington has been able to move the ball very consistently this year. New York's defense is good, but they are also without several top players now.

Jason Pierre Paul is out for this one. Janoris Jenkins is doubtful for this one. They have several other guys questionable here. Why would those guys play if they are hurt? The Giants can't improve their playoff standing no matter what.

Washington needs this game badly, and the Redskins offense should pile up the points. The Redskins have routinely been gaining 400 yards of total offense in their matchups with New York, and I think they will again here.

At the same time, Ben McAdoo said Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. will play here. The Redskins defense isn't good. Washington ranks in the bottom 8 in the league in all defensive categories. New York's offense has been better in recent weeks.

This number is too low. I see a good weather forecast for this one and a game that should get to 50 points or so. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The New Orleans Saints have shown that they aren't giving up on the season. New Orleans won at Arizona two weeks ago and then won at home last week against a Tampa Bay team with more to play for. 

I think the Saints will put in a good effort here against an Atlanta Falcons team that they really don't like. These two rivals typically play very hard against each other, and the underdog has been the way to go in this series.

Atlanta certainly has a lot to play for here, but the Falcons defense gives up quite a bit, and the Saints are obviously a very good indoor team. I think both teams score a lot here. The backdoor could be open as well with the Saints scoring potential. 

The underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 January games. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. A 14-0 angle. 

Take New Orleans. 

*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans meet in week 17. Tennessee is out of the playoffs and Houston is in once again. 

Marcus Mariota is out which means Matt Cassel will start for the Titans. Cassel is definitely a big downgrade for the Titans, and I think we see an even more conservative game plan from Tennessee in this game. The Titans play a slow tempo and run the ball a lot, both of which are good for the under.

Houston's defense ranks in the top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last five weeks. This defense is excellent, and I see them playing well again here. 

Tom Savage hasn't turned the ball over a bunch, but I wasn't very impressed with him last week in the Texans win over the Bengals either. Savage checked down constantly and I see very few big plays from Houston here.

The under is a perfect 6-0 in the Titans last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns meet in the regular season finale. Expected to rest for the Steelers are Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, and Mike Pouncey. That's their best offensive players, and even against the Browns without those guys I think the Steelers offense will look like a shell of itself.

Cleveland's offense wasn't any good last week either. The Browns are second to last in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. Only the Rams are worse than them during that period.

The Steelers defense is only allowing 4.9 yards per play in the last 3 games, and they have been much better down the stretch. 

With Landry Jones and Robert Griffin III as the quarterbacks, I see a sloppy low scoring game here.

The under is 6-0 in the Browns last 6 after allowing 350 yards or more. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during week 17 of the season. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 week 17 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 30 points the previous game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 28-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Monday Night Football CASH* The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions rank 10th and 12th in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas is a very balanced offense with Dak Prescott doing a great job at quarterback and Ezekiel Elliot already as one of the top two or three running backs in the NFL.

Detroit's offense is reliant on the passing game. Matt Stafford has been very good this year, and his finger injury is reportedly much better than it was last week. The Cowboys secondary takes a lot of chances, which means they could easily pick some off, but they could also give up some big plays.

Dallas is 19th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Detroit is 25th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. These two defenses are both below the league average in many key advanced statistics. 

I think we have a line that is too low thanks the Lions going on a big under run of late. This game isn't being played in bad weather like Detroit's game last week. It is in the dome, and this is a great environment for points. We'll look to profit from the overreaction in the line.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Broncos/Chiefs ATS CASH* The Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos meet in an all important battle in KC on Sunday night. Denver had almost 200 yards more than Kansas City in their meeting earlier this year. The Broncos found a way to lose that game, and they'll need to get a win here in Kansas City.

The Chiefs are a good team, but they aren't a team I like to lay points with. Kansas City plays a lot of close games, and their offense is very mediocre. The Chiefs running game has been disappointing in recent weeks. 

The Broncos offense certainly isn't very good either. Denver needs to get some type of running game going here. 

The difference to me is the Broncos definitely have the better defense. The Broncos are excellent against the pass, and the Chiefs are unlikely to be able to run for too much against them. 

In a game with a total of 37 points, getting 3.5 points holds clear value. Look for a close game all the way here. Grab the points and take Denver. 

*3 Star NFL Christmas Eve CASH* The Cincinnati Bengals put a lot into last week's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincinnati played really well in the first half, and then no showed in the second half. The offense couldn't get anything going against Pittsburgh after their first three drives. 

A.J. Green is expected to be back here, but I don't think he is 100 percent. The Texans defense is one of the top ten in the NFL even without J.J. Watt. Also very important to note is Tyler Eifert is expected to miss this game. Eifert is way more important to this Bengals team than most people realize. He opens up the rest of the field because teams have to respect his pass catching ability over the middle. Without him, the Bengals are hurting a lot. 

Cincinnati's defense is banged up right now, and the Houston offense got a big shot in arm last week when Tom Savage entered the game. I'm not going to pretend to think that Tom Savage is the next Tom Brady, but it won't be hard to do better than Osweiler has been doing for this team. The Texans have very good wide receivers, and all Savage has to do is manage the game.

Cincinnati is out of the playoffs, and the Bengals have nothing to play for. The Texans are fighting hard here, and they are 5-1 in their last 6 games against the Bengals. 

Look for the more motivated team to win this one. Take Houston. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bears might have found something in Matt Barkley. His numbers are really impressive since taking over, and you have to remember that he has been playing in some really bad conditions during that time. Barkley has thrown for over 300 yards twice in the four games he has started.

In this one, Barkley will be up against a Washington defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I'm not impressed by this Redskins defense other than their ability to get after the quarterback. I think this is a spot where the Bears can get some big plays on the outside.

The Bears defense is beaten up, but they have fought hard. Still, Chicago is likely to give up quite a bit here. Washington is first in the NFL in yards per play on the road. They are third in yards per play overall. This is an offense that is well balanced and has big play ability.

The weather is usually a negative this time of the year in Chicago, and I think that has kept the total down. This time around though it is expected to be 33 degrees with almost no wind. That's as good as you can ask for. 

The over is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 games after a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 Saturday games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 after gaining 90 yards or less on the ground last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. A 23-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Monday Night MONEY* The Carolina Panthers are allowing 6.6 yards per play on the road so far this year. That is the worst mark of any team in the NFL. Which team is first in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games? Washington is at 6.7 yards per play.

This Redskins offense is playing terrific right now. Kirk Cousins has made much better decisions with the football, and the running game has given them a lot more balance of late. Jordan Reed is still a tremendous weapon for the Redskins also.

As good as the Redskins offense is, I don't like this Washington defense. They are 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I think Carolina gets quite a few big plays in this one. While Carolina technically has nothing to play for now, I think a Monday night game will keep them interested here. The Redskins have allowed at least 20 points in all but one game this year. 

The Panthers have allowed 40 points or more in 3 of their last 5 road games. 

The over is 4-0 in the Panthers last 4 after throwing for 150 yards or less last game. The over is 8-0 in the Redskins last 8 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 December games. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Falcons are first in the NFL in yards per play at 6.5. San Francisco's defense is banged up and they have been terrible away from home. The 49ers are allowing 6.3 yards per play on the road. San Francisco doesn't have anyone in the secondary to slow down the Falcons deep threats. Matt Ryan and this Atlanta offense are firing on all cylinders right now. I think Atlanta puts up a big number in this game.

San Francisco still plays at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. That is certainly a big help when you are taking the over. San Francisco's offense had serious problems with the weather in Chicago two weeks ago, and then they are a solid under team at home. Coming off two unders and now traveling to play in a dome against a high scoring team, I see this as a great opportunity to play the over.

The Falcons defense is 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.7, so they aren't all that good either. I see a lot of big plays in this game.

The over is a perfect 6-0 in the Falcons home games so far this year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Steelers/Bengals Rivalry CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals meet on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. It's no secret that these two teams don't like each other at all. In general, the bigger the game is the better it is for the under. 

Cincinnati isn't going to make the playoffs this year. That means this game is their Super Bowl for the rest of the season. There is nothing more the Bengals would love to do than ruin Pittsburgh's playoff standing. In the past three games, Cincinnati's defense is allowing only 4.6 yards per game. That is second in the NFL to the Denver Broncos. 

Pittsburgh's defense has been much better in recent weeks as well. The Steelers rank 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. The Steelers have allowed only 12.5 points per game in their last four games.

The weather should help some here as well. Light snow showers or flurries are expected and winds of 10 to 15 mph with temperatures in the mid 20's. 

Since 2007, when a team is in the first of three straight divisional games to finish the season like Pittsburgh is (Cincy, Bal, Cle) the under is 26-4-1 when the total is 40 points or higher. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 31-4 angle. 

I think both defenses play well here. Take the under.

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Giants and the Detroit Lions meet at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The weather forecast here calls for a temperature in the mid 40's and winds of 15 mph gusting to 20 or 25 mph during the game. That will make it a lot tougher to throw the ball, which is important since neither of these teams can run the ball. 

There is clearly a lot of sharp money on the under here, and while I would have liked to have this one at 43 or 44, I still think it is a good play at this level. Matt Stafford has a finger injury and that should limit him a bit. 

The Giants defense is sixth in the NFL in yards per play allowed and they are fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games.

The Giants offense is fourth worst in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. Only the Jaguars, Browns, and Rams have been worse. 

Detroit is 29th in the NFL in rushing yards. New York is 30th in rushing yards. I think we see both offenses struggle through the elements on Sunday.

The under is 7-0 in the Lions last 7 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. an NFC foe. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 games. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The New England Patriots are definitely short-handed on offense right now. There's no doubt that Tom Brady is one of the greats of all time, but it would hurt anyone to be without Rob Gronkowski. To make matters even worse, the Patriots are now also without Amendola. He had 65 catches last year, so he's obviously a big part of the offense as well. 

It might surprise you to know that New England runs the ball 44.33% of the time. That is the fifth highest rushing percentage in the NFL. This year's Baltimore defense is amazing against the run. They are clearly the best team in the NFL against the run, and they are the best in several years according to the advanced metrics. Brady has less passing game weapons here, so this is important.

Joe Flacco had a great game last week, but it was still only one game. Baltimore's offense has been disappointing most of the year. New England's defense ranks third in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. This is an underappreciated unit.

The weather should play a role here. Sustained wind of 15 miles per hour is expected during this game with gusts of 20-25 mph. Wind hurts passing games more than anything else.

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star SEA/GB Afternoon MONEY* The Green Bay Packers are 15-1 straight up in their last 16 home games in the month of December. This is a team that is definitely good at using the elements at Lambeau Field to their advantage. With light snow forecast for this game, it is another opportunity for them to do that again here.

It is very rare to find Green Bay as a home underdog, and with these conditions it makes me like the value even more. Aaron Rodgers has played much better of late, and Rodgers and the Green Bay offense should be able to take advantage of Earl Thomas' absence from the Seattle secondary.

Thomas has been one of the most underrated players in the NFL for many years now, and I think his injury knocks this defense down a notch or two.

Seattle isn't a great road team. Remember, they have lost road games at Los Angeles and Tampa Bay already this year. This is a difficult spot against a Green Bay team that has to win this game based on their disappointing start to the season.

Take Green Bay and the points. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* Weather will be a big factor in this game. Both teams will have to play very conservatively. The Steelers defense is much improved and Buffalo's defense is better at home.

The weather forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for 10-15 mph winds and about an inch of snow during the afternoon. The combination of snow and some wind is really helpful for the under. There isn't a place in the NFL where the weather can change the game more than Buffalo.

Buffalo plays at exactly an average pace of play, while Pittsburgh is slightly slower than average in their tempo. Things usually slow down when weather is a big factor, and I think that will be the case here. 

Buffalo's running game is definitely good with McCoy. I think they'll get some yards here, but I think Buffalo will be too one-dimensional to pile up the points with a situation like this. Pittsburgh will know the run is coming.

The Buffalo defense was embarrassed in the third and fourth quarter last week at Oakland, and I think they bounce back here. This team has a lot of talent on the defensive end, and here is where they should show some pride.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Arizona Cardinals don't have the record to show for it, but I still believe they are a top eight team in the NFL. The statistics suggest that to be the case as well. 

Arizona leads the NFL in yardage differential. It's pretty amazing that a team with a losing record could be in that standing, but the Cardinals are. Arizona is outgaining teams by 0.5 yard per play, which is sixth best in the NFL. Arizona has the second ranked overall defense in the NFL. They are also second in the NFL behind only Denver in yards per play allowed.

David Johnson has been tremendous in the backfield for the Cardinals, and I'm not sure the Dolphins defense can stop the Cardinals here. Miami's defense ranks third worst in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. They are giving up 4.65 yards per rush. 

Look for the Cardinals to establish the run and then get some big play action passes in this one.

Miami's offensive line is struggling right now, and this Cardinals defensive front should give them a lot of trouble. Miami has had a lot of close wins over bad teams this year, and the Cardinals are underrated now.

The Dolphins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games. 

Take Arizona here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers have nothing left to play for. Neither do the San Diego Chargers. When neither team is motivated, I find that the game is generally higher scoring because motivation and important games generally makes the defenses play much better. 

Here, we have two offenses who are capable of making a lot of big plays. Phillip Rivers gets to play in North Carolina for the first time since he played at NC State, and I think Rivers will have a big day here. 

Carolina's defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed, and they rank in the bottom ten in their last three games. Luke Kuechly will miss this game again, and his absence is a big loss for the Panthers. San Diego ranks 9th in the NFL in yards per play on offense.

The over is 5-2 in the Chargers last 7 road games. The over is 11-4-1 in the Panthers last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Play of the Week* The weather will be a big factor in Cleveland this weekend and I want to get this one locked in early. Both teams will need to be very conservative with the wind and snow on Sunday afternoon by the lake. I think this is a game that is played very low scoring and close the whole way.

The forecast here calls for 1 to 3 inches of snow during the afternoon and winds of about 15 mph. Those are terrible conditions, and that should definitely change the way this one is played.

Robert Griffin III is expected to start here for Cleveland, and in the snow and wind I have to expect the Browns offensive game plan to be very conservative. In their last 3 games, the Bengals defense has been much better. In fact, they rank fifth in the league in yards per play allowed at only 4.8 during the last three games. 

Even more interesting is the fact that Cleveland's defense ranks 12th in the NFL in yards per play allowed during the last three games. The Browns have faced some weaker offenses during that time, and they face a weak one here. Cincinnati isn't the same without A.J. Green, and they definitely miss Gio Bernard in the backfield as well. The Bengals running game hasn't been very good with Jeremy Hill.

Cleveland is coming off a bye week, and they know this is likely their best chance to win a game this year. I think they fight harder than normal here. 

A lot of running the ball and moving clock because of the weather will help.

Take the under big. 

*Note- The line has moved down since I made this play a couple days ago. The weather continues to look bad and I would still make this a top rated play on the under. It looks like a sloppy contest is in store.* 

*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Oakland Raiders are dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This Oakland defense is going to end up costing this team in big games at some point. I think it is here. 

Kansas City has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. The Chiefs will have a raucous environment for this primetime game. They'll have another big advantage here too and that is the weather. Oakland is clearly not accustomed to the 18 degree temperatures they'll be playing on during this game. Derek Carr is a good quarterback, but he went to college in Fresno and now plays in Oakland. He is likely to be hurt by the conditions here, and he's also up against a ball hawking secondary that will take advantage of every mistake he makes.

Though there have been more bets on the Raiders, there is more money on the Chiefs so far in this one. I believe the Chiefs at home are the sharp side. The Chiefs are just one game back in the division standings. They need this game. I think they get it.

Take Kansas City. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Totals CRUSHER* The Oakland Raiders are certainly much improved, but it isn't because they have a good defense. Oakland is actually dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. That's a major problem, and I think the Bills can take advantage. 

Buffalo has a really good running game with McCoy, and the Raiders are the third worst team in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Bills running game should bust some big plays here. Tyrod Taylor is more than capable of completing some deep balls as well, and Oakland's secondary is allowing the most yards per completion (12.53) of any team in the NFL. 

Buffalo is first in the NFL in rushing yards per carry at a whopping 5.29 (second is only 4.81). Oakland is fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game. 

These are big play offenses, and I see this total being a few points too low.

The over is 6-1 in the Bills last 7. The over is 18-6-2 in the Raiders last 26 home games. Take the over big. 

*3 Star NFL Red Hot CASH* I'm fading the steam in this situation. This line has been steamed up to the all important number of 7. Detroit isn't getting the respect from the betting market that they deserve. The Lions sit atop the NFC North at 7-4 on the year. Detroit won at Indianapolis early in the year and they won in Minnesota a few weeks ago in overtime. They do have three losses on the road, but none of them are by more than a touchdown. In fact, the Lions have lost four games, and not a single one of those has been by more than 7 points. Detroit has been involved in close games all year, and there is no reason to expect this one to be any different.

New Orleans put a lot into last week's game to get back at Gregg Williams (former DC in New Orleans). The Saints play at Tampa Bay next weekend in a key NFC South game. I also don't like the potential for team chemistry issues with Brandin Cooks throwing a fit about the lack of passes he has had thrown his way of late. Things like that can be a bigger deal than they first appear.

While New Orleans has improved on defense, much of that improvement is in the run defense. Detroit is going to be throwing it around with Matt Stafford here. Stafford has played well this year, and I think he keeps the Lions right in this game.

Take Detroit plus the points. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Miami Dolphins have won six games in a row. Baltimore has lost 5 of their last 8 games. Miami certainly comes in here with confidence, and this time of the year confidence is ultra important.

Miami has become a different team with the success of Jay Ajayi in the backfield. Miami played without two key offensive linemen last weekend, but they will be back in the lineup for this game. The Dolphins have been able to take the pressure off Ryan Tannehill, and that has made him play much better. 

Baltimore has a quality defense, but this Ravens offense has really struggled of late. The Ravens average the least amount of yards per completion of any team in the NFL. Joe Flacco is playing with very little confidence right now, and the Dolphins have the front seven to pressure Flacco in this one. Note that Cameron Wake has been a monster of late for the Dolphins. He was banged up early in the year, but now that he is healthy, he has been superb. 

Miami is 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog when playing against a team with revenge. Baltimore did lose to Miami by 2 last year, so this system applies in this case. The Ravens are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. an AFC opponent. An 18-0 angle. 

Take Miami. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The San Francisco 49ers play at the fastest pace of anyone in the NFL. The 49ers aren't going to slow down anytime soon. In recent games, the 49ers offense has been improved. Hyde is healthier and Kaepernick is making better decisions with the football. 

Miami's offense has been much better since Ajayi emerged as a force in the backfield. The Dolphins should have a big day on the ground in this one. San Francisco is easily the worst rushing defense in the NFL. The 49ers are giving up 5.17 yards per carry. Ryan Tannehill is capable of making big plays in the passing game when the running game is working well, and I see him getting in some deep passes here.

The Dolphins defense has been significantly worse at home than on the road this year. They are allowing 5.7 yards per play at home this season. 

With the pace of the game and the big play ability, I like this one to go over the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Top Play of Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't a good team, but when you take a closer look at their stats, you have to be impressed with how hard their defense has played. Jacksonville ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at only 5.0 yards per play. Their numbers are almost identical with Seattle and the LA Rams on defense when it comes to yards per play.Jacksonville is allowing less per pass completion than any other team in the league, and they are allowing a solid 3.94 yards per carry.

The Buffalo defense has improved in recent weeks. They have gotten healthier and they are allowing 5.4 yards per play in their last three games. Last week against Cincinnati, this Bills defense was playing at an elite level. Blake Bortles has regressed as a quarterback, and I don't see him being able to beat this Bills secondary. The Bills defensive line has an edge up against the Jaguars offensive front as well.

Neither of these teams play particularly fast, and I think we'll see both teams struggle to punch it in the end zone here. 

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals should have some serious problems on offense without A.J. Green and Gio Bernard. Andy Dalton and company looked lost on offense in the second half at home against Buffalo last week. Baltimore's defense ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.0. The Ravens have been a better defense than Buffalo all season. The Ravens are playing their best defense of the year lately. Baltimore is allowing only 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.

Baltimore's offense has been terrible this year. The Ravens are 28th in the NFL in yards per play at 5.0. They are at 4.8 yards per play at home this year. What about Cincinnati's offense? The Bengals are at 5.9 yards per play at home and 5.5 on the road. Interestingly, the Bengals are at only 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.

Cincinnati is badly banged up on offense, but their defense is getting healthier. I don't see Baltimore being able to pick up many big plays against this Cincinnati defense this weekend. On the other side, I see Cincinnati's offense getting more conservative and running the ball more. Baltimore is first in the NFL in yards per carry allowed.

The under is 5-1 in the Ravens last 6 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco 49ers are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL, and it isn't close. Chip Kelly's team is going to keep playing the same way. The offense is getting a little better as the season moves along, but this San Francisco defense is just terrible. The 49ers defense was never good this year, but after injuries they have really fallen off badly. 

San Francisco is giving up 6.0 yards per play on the year. That is 28th out of 32 teams in the NFL. The 49ers are allowing 6.7 yards per play in their last 3 contests, which ranks dead last in the NFL. New England is middle of the pack at 5.5 yards per play allowed. 

The Patriots are 6th in the NFL in yards per play on offense at 6.0. That includes the time without Brady though, and this is clearly a top three offense in the NFL. San Francisco is averaging 4.9 yards per play on the year, but in their last 3 contests they have gained a very respectable 5.7 yards per play.

In the 49ers last 8 games, only one has fallen below this number. New England should put up a big number here, and the 49ers should do enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* In this one we have a battle between two of the best defenses in the NFL. Arizona is first in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.7. Minnesota is fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.9. It all starts up front for both of these defenses. I see both defensive lines having the upper hand against the opposing offensive front.

Sam Bradford hasn't done a terrible job in this Vikings system, but he can't make plays on his own. The Vikings running game has been one of the worst in the NFL. The Cardinals should get a good pass rush here. Carson Palmer is having a disappointing season for the Cardinals. The Cardinals have leaned on their running game of late, but I expect the Vikings front seven to slow down Arizona's rushing attack.

While only a little more than 50% of the bets placed on this game have been on the under, about 90% of the money is on the under. The under looks like the sharp side here. Take the under.

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Indianapolis Colts beat the Tennessee Titans 34-26 in Nashville in their meeting earlier this year. This game will be played in the dome at Indy, where the conditions are even more favorable for an over. 

Andrew Luck should find plenty of open receivers against a Titans secondary that is worse than the league average. As long as Luck has time to throw, he can pick this team apart. The Colts offensive line has been slightly better in recent weeks.

Marcus Mariota has played much better in recent weeks. This Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Titans should be able to run it and throw it against this unit.

The Titans are 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Colts are 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. While the public does like the over, the sharps like it as well. This is a rare situation where both the public and sharp are on the same side.

The over is 6-0 in the Titans last 6 vs. an AFC foe. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing more than 250 yards passing last game. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AFC South. The over is 4-0 in the Colts last 4 vs. the AFC South. A 29-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Vikings have played 8 games this year. Only one of those games has gone over this total. That was a 31-13 win over the Houston Texans. Minnesota's defense is tremendous, and I expect a strong effort from them here. On the other side, their offense is a mess. 

Minnesota's big problem on offense is their offensive line. This offensive front has been abused time and time again this year. The Vikings have given up 4.3 sacks per game in their last three contests. Washington has a weak defense, but the one strength they have is their defensive line. Washington is 7th in the NFL in most sacks. Look for the Redskins defensive line to be in the backfield a lot in this game.

While about 60% of the bets on this game are on the over (the public loves to play overs), 61% of the money thus far is on the under. 

The under is 15-5-1 in the Vikings last 21 road games. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Carolina Panthers are turning things around. This line is very telling because you have a 3-5 team laying 3 points to a 6-2 team. Clearly, the oddsmakers don't want to underrate Carolina again like they did last season. 

Carolina's defense has struggled so far this year, but it has been their pass defense that has been a problem rather than the run defense. In fact, Carolina ranks number one in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Alex Smith isn't a bad quarterback, but he also isn't a guy who picks apart secondaries on a regular basis. Jeremy Maclin is also out for this contest, which is a huge hit to the KC passing game. 

Carolina lost a lot of close games early in the year, and this team is coming on of late. Carolina is healthier than Kansas City right now also. The Chiefs are without Jamaal Charles in the running game, and Justin Houston is out on the defensive side. 

This game is expected to be played in rain. That likely means more running plays than normal and while the Panthers are first in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, the Chiefs are 30th. 

Carolina needs every game at this point, and I give them several key advantages here. Take Carolina. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Bucs rank 6th in the NFL in tempo this season. Chicago ranks 13th in the NFL in pace. A total set at only 45 is pretty low for two teams playing at that kind of pace without a really good defense involved. Neither of these defenses would qualify as a really good defense. 

Tampa Bay's secondary is terrible. The Bucs are allowing 12.65 yards per pass completion so far this year, which is second worst in the NFL. Tampa Bay has also been a penalty machine on defense. The Bears will get some major help from Tampa Bay penalties on defense here.

Chicago's defense is mediocre. Tampa Bay's offense gets much better this week when Mike Evans is in the lineup, and there is hope that Doug Martin will play as well. 

Jay Cutler has been an upgrade for the Bears since coming back, and he throws a good deep ball. Cutler should make some big plays here, and he could also throw some to the other team for a quick score, as his judgement has never been very good.

Tampa Bay is playing in their third straight home game. In their last 10 times playing a third straight home contest, the over is 9-1. Take the over here. 

*3 Star NFL Browns/Ravens CASH* The Baltimore Ravens are coming off an impressive win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, on a short week, they host the winless Cleveland Browns. If there was ever a spot to look past a team, this is it. 

Teams have not fared well after playing the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is likely because of the Steelers extremely physical nature. The Ravens and Steelers hate each other, and that battle always takes a lot out of both teams. How about this trend? Teams are 12-32 ATS in their last 44 games after playing Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh Steelers. 

There are a couple more trends backing the Browns plus the points here. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Cleveland. The Ravens are also an awful 3-12-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or more against a team from the AFC North. 

Cleveland isn't good, but all 8 of Baltimore's games have been decided by a single digit margin. It's a letdown spot for Baltimore, and I think they'll win, but it will be closer than 10. Take Cleveland plus the points. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco 49ers are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL by a wide margin. Chip Kelly's team is coming off a bye week. That should be a positive for the offense. I expect the offense, which hasn't been very good at all, to have a better game plan ready for this one.

The Saints play at the fourth fastest tempo of any team in the league. New Orleans still has a terrible defense. The Saints are giving up 6.2 yards per play on the year, which is 28th in the NFL. The Saints aren't very good against the run or the pass.

San Francisco's defense was bad to start with, but injuries to Navarro Bowman, Ray Ray Armstrong, and Aaron Lynch from the linebacker positions have really hit the team hard. The 49ers have allowed 33 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. This Saints offense is arguably the best offense they have gone up against yet.

Drew Brees is playing well, and Brees has a ton of weapons around him. The 49ers have no home field advantage now, and I see the Saints putting up a big number. The sheer volume of plays makes me think the 49ers will get their points as well. 

The over is 7-0 in the Saints last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-0 in the 49ers last 7 after allowing 350 yards or more last game. The over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between these two in San Francisco. A 22-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* This selection is all about the Dolphins being undeserving of laying four points. Miami isn't a very good team, and they have proven to be terrible when laying points at home. How about this stat? The Miami Dolphins are 13-42-1 ATS in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Basically, the Dolphins are terrible as home favorites. Miami is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. They are also 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. the AFC East.

The Jets run defense is solid. Miami's offense has improved of late thanks to Jay Ajayi, but I trust the Jets to hold him down pretty well here. The weakness of the Jets is their secondary, but can Ryan Tannehill really take advantage of that weakness? 

The Jets have played a bit better in recent weeks, and it should be noted their early season schedule was very difficult. I'm going to grab the points in a game that should be close all the way. Take the New York Jets. 

*3 Star NFL Thursday Red Hot CASH* The Atlanta Falcons offense is averaging 13.01 yards per pass completion so far this year. That's a yard better than the second best team in the NFL in that category (Patriots). Atlanta's Matt Ryan has taken a big step forward this year in terms of consistency. It helps that he has an improved offensive line and some tremendous deep weapons in the passing game. 

This is a good matchup for Ryan to have a big game also. Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 12.59 yards per completion, which is second worst in the NFL (behind only the Browns). The Bucs secondary was torched last weekend by Derek Carr and the Raiders, and I think the same thing will happen here. 

Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston has been up and down this year, but he has been good against the Falcons in the past, and the Atlanta defense is still subpar. 

Atlanta is 19th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Tampa Bay is 25th in that number. Atlanta is easily first in the NFL in yards per play on offense at 6.8 yards per play. 

The over is 7-1 in the Falcons last 8 games. The over is 7-3 in the Bucs last 10. Take the over here.