Sports Picks & Predictions

NFL Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-06-20	Rams -1.5 v. Cardinals		38-28	Win	100	156 h 12 m	Show
4 Star Play on the LA Rams The LA Rams were in a tricky spot against San Francisco on Sunday, and they put in a poor effort. I think they bounce back here. The Rams have proven they can win on the road, and they have arguably the best defense in the NFL. Arizona had an ugly performance against New England on Sunday. Kyler Murray doesn't look healthy, and if Murray isn't himself it really hurts this offense in a big way. He didn't run nearly as much and that is a huge part of this offense. Last year, the Rams matched up really well against Arizona and dominated them. The Cardinals are clearly a better team this year than they were a year ago, but this line is lower than I expected on the Rams. The Rams are the far more complete team here. The Rams wide receivers are likely to give the Cardinals defensive backs a lot of problems in this one. The Rams bounce back. I like this as a 4 star play up to -2.5 here. Take the LA Rams.
12-06-20	Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47.5		17-12	Win	100	28 h 41 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Seattle Seahawks defense is much improved with Carlos Dunlap and Jamal Adams. Seattle has allowed 5.8 yards per play on the year, but only 4.8 yards per play in their last three games. They have actually played two good offenses in those last three games too (Arizona and the LA Rams). Seattle has been far more conservative with their play calling in recent weeks. Pete Carroll has said he wants to reduce the amount of hits Russell Wilson takes. This sets up as a game where the Seahawks can salt away the win by running the football and using up the clock. Colt McCoy is expected to start here, and I think he is a big downgrade from Daniel Jones. McCoy doesn't throw the ball down the field as much, and he isn't able to use his legs the way Jones can. Take the under here.
12-06-20	Raiders -7.5 v. Jets		31-28	Loss	-110	129 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play on Raiders The Las Vegas Raiders might have been in a bad spot here if they had played well and won last weekend, but after the absolutely awful performance they put forth against the Falcons last week, there is no reason to expect them to not be ready for this game. This is a circle the wagons spot if there ever was one. The Raiders overlooked the Jets last year and were drubbed by them. Here's their shot at revenge from last year, and a chance to get right against the worst team in the NFL. The Raiders have played a much tougher schedule than the Jets so far this year. The Jets have consistently been beaten badly by above average teams, and the Raiders are an above average team in my book. Sam Darnold clearly isn't the answer for the Jets. I don't think the Jets care anymore, and the Raiders can't look past this game after such a bad performance last week. Take Las Vegas.
12-06-20	Bengals v. Dolphins UNDER 42		7-19	Win	100	129 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cincinnati Bengals offense is a mess without Joe Burrow. The offensive line is the worst in the NFL. Brandon Allen is the starting quarterback here and he doesn't even know the system much at all. Their only touchdown last week was a special teams touchdown and that was against an average at best Giants defense. The Dolphins are an above average secondary. The Bengals are banged up in the running game, and it is hard to see them scoring much at all. With Miami heading into a big game against KC the next week it is easy to see the Dolphins just grabbing a lead here and coasting and being happy to salt this one away and play with a slow tempo. Tua is the likely starter at QB here and that means a more conservative game plan. Look for a low scoring game all the way around here. I think this could stay in the mid 30's or lower. Take the under.
12-06-20	Colts v. Texans UNDER 51.5		26-20	Win	100	71 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Houston Texans offense will look a lot different without Will Fuller on the outside stretching the field. Deshaun Watson is an excellent quarterback, but his numbers without Fuller are far worse in his career than his numbers with Fuller on the field. This will be the first time he has been without Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins (now at Arizona). Houston has put up a lot of points of late, but they haven't been up against a good defense in a long time. In fact, the last solid defense they played was the Steelers back in September. Indianapolis is expected to be without star lineman Anthony Castonzo. That will make Phillip Rivers a little less comfortable in the pocket. The Colts prefer to play it safe offensively and move at a slower tempo. Divisional games late in the season have been good under bets, and this one fits that system. I see both offenses as a bit overvalued with their recent high scoring games against bad defenses. Take the under.
12-06-20	Jaguars v. Vikings OVER 50.5		24-27	Win	100	57 h 29 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Minnesota Vikings offense is averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per play on offense at home. Kirk Cousins is playing really well and Adam Thielen will be back in the lineup here. Justin Jefferson is a great second option. The Jaguars secondary is probably the worst in the NFL. I expect Cousins and the Vikings receivers to have a big day here. Dalvin Cook may be a bit banged up. Even if Cook misses time here, the Vikings offensive line is good in run blocking, and the Vikings have a good group of backup running backs. I think Sean Glennon is a step up from Jake Luton, and I liked what I saw from him last week. With the Jaguars offense getting a little bit healthier, I think they put up some points in this one. Minnesota ranks 21st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Jacksonville is last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This game is played in a dome. We have two very weak defenses and an average total in today's NFL. Take the over.
12-06-20	Browns v. Titans OVER 53		41-35	Win	100	11 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Over I see the Cleveland Browns as an over team right now. They had three really bad weather games which skewed their stats significantly. This is an above average offense with a strong offensive line and two very good running backs. It is also a defense that is clearly below average, especially without Denzel Ward in the secondary. The Tennessee Titans have been an amazing over bet with Ryan Tannehill under center. How good? The over is 20-4 in the Titans last 24 games with Tannehill under center. Derrick Henry does a great job keeping the defenses attention, and the Titans wide receivers are underrated by many. The Titans have big play potential at all times. The Titans secondary is vulnerable without Adoree Jackson. Both of these teams have 44 plays of 20 yards or more, which is tied for 9th in the NFL. The weather looks good for this one, and I expect both teams to put up quite a few points here. Take the over.
11-29-20	Dolphins v. Jets OVER 44		20-3	Loss	-110	9 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins are expected to have Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback here. Even if Tua were the starter here, I think this is a fair price on the total. With Fitzpatrick, I think this is a very solid price on the over. The Jets defense is looking worse by the week. It would be a surprise if the Dolphins offense weren't able to put up quite a few points in this one. On the other side, with a healthy group of wide receivers, the Jets offense has looked much better the last couple weeks. Sam Darnold is back here and he is an upgrade from Joe Flacco. The weather looks good for this one, and in today's NFL if there isn't a weather issue this is a very low posted total. Take the over here.
11-29-20	Raiders -3 v. Falcons		6-43	Loss	-112	9 h 50 m	Show
3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week The Las Vegas Raiders have really impressed me this year. Las Vegas has been great on the road as well. They won at Kansas City, Cleveland, and at LA against the Chargers. The Raiders passing game has upgraded in a big way this year. They have the speed guys on the outside and the elite tight end in Waller. Carr is playing with a ton of confidence right now. Atlanta isn't the same team without a healthy Julio Jones. The reports are that Jones is doubtful to play here. If he does play he isn't likely to be himself. The Falcons running game has been really weak all year, and I don't think they can have much success against the Raiders front seven here. Matt Ryan is inconsistent and he relies on Julio Jones in a big way. The Raiders have a strong offensive line, while the Falcons offensive front is a real problem. The Raiders passing attack has a big edge over a very weak Atlanta secondary. I'll lay the short number. Take Las Vegas.
11-29-20	Chargers v. Bills OVER 52		17-27	Loss	-102	8 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The LA Chargers have become an over machine of late. Six of their last seven games have gotten to 57 points or higher. The Chargers aren't just getting over the total, they have been clearing it easily. Without Casey Hayward and Melvin Ingram here, the Chargers are without two of their best defensive players. Buffalo's defense has been a big disappointment this year. The Chargers have been able to get Keenan Allen going in a big way of late, and Buffalo has struggled with slot receivers in coverage. Allen should have a big game here. There is some wind in the forecast here (14 mph on average). That is factored into the total though, and I think both passing attacks have the edge vs. the opposing secondary. If it isn't broke, well you know. I see both of these teams as over teams. Take the over.
11-23-20	Rams v. Bucs -4		27-24	Loss	-107	20 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play on Tampa Bay The Tampa Bay Bucs defense is excellent, and I think they'll give Jard Goff a hard time on Monday night. Andrew Whitworth going down with an injury really hurts this Rams offensive line. What is Jared Goff's biggest problem as a quarterback? Dealing with pressure up the middle. I think Tampa Bay can bring that pressure and give him a lot of trouble here. The Rams are clearly a quality team, but their offense goes as does Goff. It isn't likely that they'll be able to run all over the Bucs, who I regard as the best run defense in the NFL. Can Goff have a big day here through the air? I don't think so. The Tampa Bay offense has been a bit inconsistent this year, but they have all kinds of playmakers on the outside. The Rams defense is certainly good, but they haven't faced a lot of good offenses this year. Their secondary has a couple good cover guys (Ramsey is elite), but their depth in the secondary is questionable. I think the Bucs depth at wide receiver can give them some edges in this game. Tampa Bay looked terrible in their last primetime game at home against New Orleans. That should have them anxious to prove that was a fluke. This is still a team that has some very nice wins this season. Lay the short number with Tampa Bay here. Take the Bucs.
11-22-20	Chiefs -7 v. Raiders		35-31	Loss	-100	100 h 11 m	Show
4 Star Play on Kansas City The Kansas City Chiefs were already going to be a play of mine, but now with the Raiders COVID issues, this is a stronger selection. Oakland's defense isn't very good to start with, and now they will be shorthanded. It's possible they will be without a bunch of key guys. Kansas City is off a bye week and ready for revenge after losing at home to the Raiders. It's a great situational spot. Look for the Chiefs to be at their best on Sunday. Take Kansas City.
11-22-20	Packers +1.5 v. Colts		31-34	Loss	-100	16 h 48 m	Show
4 Star NFL ATS Play of the WEEK The Indianapolis Colts have a good defense, but they haven't faced many top quarterbacks this year. Indianapolis has had a very weak schedule of offenses they have faced this season. That changes here with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers coming to town. Green Bay's passing attack has sputtered a bit in recent weeks because of the conditions. Against both Minnesota a few weeks ago and the Jaguars last week, the Packers played in winds of 25 mph and higher through the game. That changes the passing attack in a big way. Now, the Packers go back in a dome where Rodgers and this group of wide receivers has looked nearly unstoppable this season. I think the Packers are going to put up a decent amount of points. I'm not confident Phillip Rivers can keep up. The Colts ground game will get them yards and some points here, but Rivers makes a lot of bad decisions and if this game goes down to the fourth quarter I want Rodgers against Rivers in a big way. Alexander is back at cornerback for the Packers and he is one of the best in the league. I like the Packers here. Take Green Bay.
11-22-20	Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 48		31-28	Win	100	14 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Minnesota Vikings offense has been tremendous this year. Dalvin Cook looks like the best running back in the league. Minnesota has been very good offensively all year. They have been on another level offensively at home. How good? Minnesota is averaging a whopping 7.9 yards per play at home on the fast track so far this year. They have been above 7 yards per play in every game at home. The Cowboys weak defense is unlikely to have much success slowing them down either. Dallas is getting healthier on the offensive line. Andy Dalton returns here. Dalton looked bad earlier this season, but he should get better blocking in front of him here. The Cowboys still have tremendous wide receivers. The Vikings secondary is still a major problem. Minnesota's defense has looked better in recent weeks, but those good performances are misleading. The Vikings slowed Green Bay because of 25 mph winds 3 games ago. A couple games ago they were able to slow the Lions offense down because Stafford got hurt in that game and Golladay didn't play. Minnesota then shut down the hapless Bears offense. The Vikings have improved some on defense, but they aren't good. Dallas plays at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. The Vikings offense has been amazing at home. We're getting a total that is below average in today's NFL. The game is played in a dome. Take the over.
11-22-20	Falcons v. Saints OVER 51		9-24	Loss	-105	68 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The New Orleans Saints are expected to start Jameis Winston here. Drew Brees is out with an injury. Winston is clearly one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. He's also one of the best "over" quarterbacks in the NFL. Winston is capable of a lot of throws many quarterbacks in the NFL aren't capable of. He can push it deep and really pressure a defense. At the same time, Winston is more capable of making poor decisions and throwing pick sixes than any other quarterback in the NFL. The Saints defense has been good of late, but Atlanta is a lot better offensively than the teams the Saints have been playing of late. Atlanta's wide receivers will put a lot of pressure on a Saints secondary that has been banged up of late. Atlanta should be able to move the ball pretty well here. The Atlanta defense is last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Saints have weapons all over the field around the quarterback. It would be a big surprise if the Saints don't score a lot of points here. Take the over.
11-19-20	Cardinals v. Seahawks -3		21-28	Win	100	34 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play on Seattle The Arizona Cardinals are coming off a thrilling win that they probably didn't deserve over the Buffalo Bills. Arizona won an overtime thriller at home against Seattle in the first game too. They were also pretty fortunate to win that game. Seattle is coming off back to back bad performances. The Seahawks are in circle the wagon mode here, and I think we get a much stronger effort from them this week. Seattle has been hurting themselves with turnovers. Russell Wilson has to play better. I think he will in this one. The Cardinals secondary is average at best. The Seahawks receivers should be running open throughout this game. Seattle at only a field goal is a discount here. We're buying low on a team with a high upside off two bad performances. Also, stock on Arizona is very high right now. Take Seattle.
11-15-20	Ravens -6.5 v. Patriots		17-23	Loss	-110	162 h 4 m	Show
4 Star Play on the Ravens The Baltimore Ravens have a great rushing attack, and New England has been really weak when it comes to defending the run this year. The Patriots rank 22nd in ypc allowed so far this season. Baltimore is third in the NFL in yards per carry, and we know they are more than willing to continue to pound it on the ground if necessary. New England has very little to play for right now. The Patriots are in a spot they haven't been accustomed to being in for a very long time. They are clearly not the best team in the AFC East, and they are very likely to miss the playoffs. John Harbaugh's teams has game planned very well for their matchups against New England in the past, and New England is far less talented on both sides of the ball this season. Baltimore has shown the ability to beat subpar teams comfortably on many occasions. I'll lay the number here with the much better team. Take the Ravens.
11-15-20	Seahawks +3 v. Rams		16-23	Loss	-120	13 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Play on Seattle The Seattle Seahawks play a bunch of close games, so being able to grab the points here with a great quarterback coming off a loss is the play I'm making in this contest. Russell Wilson is 23-9-2 ATS as an underdog. Wilson's teams aren't dogs very often, and they have been great in this role. Additionally, Wilson is also 24-12-4 ATS coming off a loss in his career. Seattle didn't play well last week in Buffalo, but this was always the game that meant more to them. I would expect them to come with a much better effort here. The LA Rams defense is pretty good, but I think it is a bit overvalued right now. The Rams haven't faced many good offenses, and several of the teams they have played have been badly banged up offensively when they faced them. Seattle is going to challenge this secondary in a big way. The LA Rams haven't beaten anyone good this year. They have beaten the NFC East and the Chicago Bears thus far. They lost a tight one to Buffalo. They lost to the 49ers in a poor performance. They also lost in a turnover fest at Miami. Seattle's defense isn't good, but they should improve some with Carlos Dunlap and Jamal Adams coming into the fold now. I think the Seahawks bounce back here. They have far more weapons on offense and I like their upside. Take Seattle.
11-15-20	Broncos v. Raiders OVER 51.5		12-37	Loss	-110	111 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Las Vegas Raiders offense is much better this year. Derek Carr has decided to take a lot more shots downfield, and it has made this offense work. Carr has turned into a solid quarterback, and he certainly has some good weapons around him. The Denver Broncos have been giving up a lot of big plays of late, and Las Vegas has been getting those big gainers. Denver's defense has been a disappointment. Las Vegas is favored here, and I do believe they should win this game. Denver has been able to put up a lot of points when trailing in the second half this year. Drew Lock is the king of the late game touchdown. Sometimes it has led to them coming back and winning late. Other times it has just let to the over cashing or Denver covering as an underdog ATS. Lock has a lot of weapons around him, and Denver has been playing quicker in recent weeks. Las Vegas still has a bad defense, especially in the secondary. I think Denver will be able to take advantage. Take the over.
11-15-20	Texans v. Browns UNDER 51.5		7-10	Win	100	94 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cleveland Browns host the Houston Texans on Sunday. Cleveland played in one major weather game earlier this year and lost to the Las Vegas Raiders 16-6. The two teams had 4.7 and 4.4 YPP. The weather for Sunday calls for 20 mph sustained winds and gusts of 30 mph. There is also a 60 percent chance of rain during the game. The rain would help, but the wind is the big deal here. The Texans offense isn't very good if they have to be more conservative. Watson has to be able to throw it around. It shouldn't be as easy as normal to do that in this game. Cleveland's defense has gotten a little healthier of late, and I think this unit is a little better than their season stats look. Neither team plays all that fast to begin with, and they will have to play more conservatively with the weather like this. Take the under.
11-08-20	Dolphins v. Cardinals UNDER 49.5		34-31	Loss	-110	37 h 14 m	Show
4 Star NFL Top Total of the WEEK The Miami Dolphins defense has been really good since they got healthy in the secondary. They spent a lot of money in the offseason to upgrade their secondary, and it has definitely worked. They have a defensive-minded coaching staff. Miami's pass defense grades out as a top five unit if you exclude the first couple weeks of the year. Arizona has played fast this year, but they haven't had the explosive offense many expected. They have gotten yards in smaller chunks. I do think they'll be able to run the ball pretty well here, but that uses up the clock and I think they'll have to settle for some field goals. Miami's offense with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback is a question mark. I'm surprised the team moved on from Fitzpatrick so soon when they were doing pretty well. I also will note that the Miami offense has faced the single easiest slate of defenses so far this year. Miami's offense still has a questionable offensive line and that could be a problem going forward. The line has moved up here, and I'm happy to take the under at this number. Miami will move slowly and play conservatively. Arizona has been contained by the better defenses they have played. Take the under here.
11-08-20	Giants v. Washington Football Team -2.5		23-20	Loss	-110	9 h 6 m	Show
3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week The New York Giants are coming off two heartbreaking losses. New York has fought very hard in both of those games, and the Giants have fallen just short against Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. Washington lost by a single point (on a failed 2 point conversion attempt) in the first game between these two teams. Since that time, Washington has gotten healthier. Washington has Antonio Gibson in the backfield looking good now, and their defensive line is much healthier again. Ron Rivera, their head coach, has also completed his chemo treatments and he is able to spend more time with the team. Washington hasn't been good this year, but with a win here they would be in a good spot in the woeful NFC East. This is a quick revenge chance for them. New York played on Monday night, while Washington is coming off a bye week. That's a huge advantage for the home team. Take Washington.
11-01-20	Saints v. Bears UNDER 45.5		26-23	Loss	-108	125 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Chicago Bears have been great at turning games into low scoring contests. Even in an NFL environment where there have been a lot of high scoring games this year, Chicago has seen 5 of their 7 games finish at 39 points or fewer. The New Orleans offense ranks 15th in the NFL in yards per play. New Orleans ranks 11th in yards per play allowed, but they have faced the toughest schedule of offenses in the NFL so far this year. The Chicago offense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play. They don't have a good option at quarterback. This offense has been a mess all year long. These two teams rank 25th and 27th in the NFL in explosive plays. These are teams who are far more likely to gradually move the ball down the field than do it in big chunks. The weather is calling for winds of 12 or 13 mph with gusts to 22 mph for this game. That helps the under as well. Take the under.
11-01-20	Patriots v. Bills UNDER 43		21-24	Loss	-106	107 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Four of the Patriots six games have finished at 39 points or fewer so far this year. The Patriots offense has all sorts of problems right now. The offensive line is badly banged up. Cam Newton isn't playing well and they don't have another good option to turn to. The Patriots have to be able to run the ball to move it consistently, but opponents are daring them to throw it and loading up the box. The Bills will do the same. Buffalo's offense is shorthanded right now as well. Buffalo has to be able to throw to move the ball consistently, because this running game of Buffalo isn't good. The New England secondary is a relative strength too. The weather here should be a problem. Some showers could be in the area, but the big deal here is the wind. Sustained winds of 21 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph will make both teams far more conservative here. Take the under.
11-01-20	Raiders v. Browns UNDER 52		16-6	Win	100	83 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders meet on Sunday in Cleveland. The story here will be the weather. The chance of rain is about 50% throughout this game, but that isn't the problem here for scoring. The problem is the huge amount of wind. The current average of forecasts I use (4 different weather sites) is 26 mph sustained winds with gusts of 43 mph. That would become one of the windiest games we have seen in a long time. We have seen under money come in on this game already, and I think it continues to come in as we get closer to game time. This kind of wind changes the game plan for both teams. Baker Mayfield likes to throw the ball downfield, but he is without Odell Beckham Jr. here and it will be extremely hard to throw in this kind of wind. It is important to note that the wind is expected to be blowing from side to side in the stadium, and that makes it even tougher for quarterbacks. The Raiders passing attack has really impressed me this year, but it isn't likely to be nearly as successful as normal in these conditions. The Raiders offensive line has struggled in run blocking. Take the under here.
11-01-20	Steelers +4.5 v. Ravens		28-24	Win	100	35 h 27 m	Show
3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week The Pittsburgh Steelers go to Baltimore in a huge AFC showdown on Sunday. Baltimore has been disappointing so far this year. The Ravens passing game ranks second worst in the NFL in success rate. Lamar Jackson seems like he isn't completely healthy at this point. Baltimore hasn't been a bad team by any means, but they have struggled offensively compared to a year ago. Pittsburgh's run defense ranks first in the NFL in success rate allowed. The Steelers are very good against the run, and they don't give up many big plays. Look for the Steelers to do everything they can to force Jackson to throw the football here. The Steelers have a lot of weapons on offense. They are deep at running back, and they have all kinds of very good weapons at wide receiver. Pittsburgh is a whopping 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 as an underdog. The Steelers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a road underdog. In a game that means so much and I see these teams as very even, I'm happy to grab the points. Take Pittsburgh.
10-26-20	Bears v. Rams UNDER 45		10-24	Win	100	67 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The last two years these two teams have met and the final scores were 15-6 and 17-7. That certainly isn't the only reason I'm betting the under here, but it is a good start. The Chicago Bears offense ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per play. Chicago's offensive line is questionable, and the Rams do bring a lot of pressure. Look for the LA defensive line led by Aaron Donald to be in the backfield quite a bit in this one. Nick Foles hasn't been terrible, but he has been a game manager. They don't take a lot of shots downfield. Chicago moves pretty slowly, and has had to settle for field goals often in the red zone. The Rams offense is good, but they have played a lot of weaker defenses this year. That won't be the case in this one. Chicago has the best secondary in the league, and we've seen this secondary give Jared Goff a lot of trouble the last two seasons. Robert Woods is questionable here with an injury, and if he doesn't play or isn't 100 percent that slows this Rams offense down. This field has seen a bunch of low scoring games played on it. The referee crew in this one has also been very good to under bettors. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand here. Take the under.
10-25-20	49ers v. Patriots UNDER 45.5		33-6	Win	100	122 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New England Patriots offense has been a mess of late. Their offensive line is badly banged up now, and they can't keep the running game going as they were earlier in the season. New England has averaged only 5.3 yards per play in their last three contests. The Patriots had high scoring games against the Seahawks and Raiders, but those two teams have some of the highest scoring games of anyone in the NFL. The Patriots other three games have all finished at 36 points or lower. The 49ers have been playing slower of late. San Francisco ranks 27th in the NFL in tempo. The 49ers are trying to lean heavily on their running game. New England is good at not allowing big plays, so I think the 49ers drives will take quite a while in this one. New England runs the ball at the third highest rate as a percentage of plays. They also rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in their last three contests. Take the under here.
10-25-20	Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 47.5		43-16	Loss	-110	101 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The two times these teams met last year the final scores were 23-3 and 30-6. The Chiefs defense is better than most people realize. Kansas City is able to pressure the quarterback and they have a good pass defense. The Broncos lack a strong running game to be able to move the ball consistently on the Chiefs. The Denver offense is a mess. The Broncos may have won last weekend, but it was because of the defense and not the offense. The Denver defense is very strong on the defensive line. Denver doesn't allow many big plays. The other factor here is the weather. Snow is in the forecast for this game. Snow likely with wind as well. When you combine those two, it is a clear help for the under. I think this number drops through the week with the weather, and I like the chances of this being a lower scoring contest. Take the under.
10-25-20	Panthers +7.5 v. Saints		24-27	Win	100	58 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play on Carolina All Teddy Bridgewater has done as a starting quarterback in the NFL is cover spreads. Bridgewater is 30-10 ATS as a starting quarterback. He is 16-3 ATS on the road. He is 14-2 ATS as a road underdog. Now, he gets to play against his old team in New Orleans. Carolina has been very impressive so far this year. Matt Rhule is a great football coach, and he has this defense playing better than anyone would have expected. Carolina is 7th in the NFL in yards per play margin (New Orleans is 9th). The Panthers have played a lot of close games this year, and I don't think there is any reason to expect anything other than a close game again here. The New Orleans Saints haven't done a lot to convince me that they are a great team. Drew Brees can't throw the ball downfield anymore. The Saints may be without Michael Thomas again this week since he has a hamstring injury now too. If he does play, he won't be 100 percent. The Saints were very fortunate to beat the Chargers at home. New Orleans also lost at home by 7 to Green Bay. Carolina will play hard all the way, and we are getting more than a touchdown here. I think they at least keep this close. Take Carolina.
10-25-20	Lions +2 v. Falcons		23-22	Win	100	11 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play on Lions The Detroit Lions have held a double digit lead in every one of their games so far this year. Have they been good at blowing those leads? Of course they have. Still, the Lions are a highly competitive team, and they still have a lot to play for at this point in the season. Atlanta had one impressive game last week against Minnesota, but the Falcons are not a team I'd want to trust to win two straight contests. Atlanta has been terrible as a favorite, especially early in the season when the games have still mattered more for them. Atlanta is 4-20 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite in the first half of the NFL regular season. The Atlanta defense ranks at or near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every statistical category you can find. The Lions secondary isn't elite by any means, but it is middle of the road and Matt Ryan is slowing down at age 35. The Lions have found a good weapon out of the backfield in Swift, and Stafford is still a solid quarterback. With Golladay, the Lions offense is a much more potent unit. Take Detroit here.
10-22-20	Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45		21-22	Win	100	16 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Philadelphia Eagles have been able to score points when they get down early and need to comeback in the fourth quarter, but in other spots, they have struggled offensively. Philadelphia is 26th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. Carson Wentz isn't a bad quarterback, but he has been without an offensive line and many of the weapons around him all year. Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffrey are out for this one. Jack Driscoll is also out on the line. Lane Johnson is expected to try to play, but he is far less than 100 percent. New York put up a big number on Dallas' defense, but who hasn't? The Giants have averaged less than 14 points per game in their other five games this year. This New York offense is awful. Saquon Barkley is missed badly, and Daniel Jones has been very weak as a passer. The Eagles still have a strong defensive front seven, and I don't think the Giants can consistently move the ball through the air on many teams. The Giants defense has shown signs of life lately. They have been especially strong against the run. This is a divisional game that does mean a lot to the teams since the NFC East is wide open. Take the under.
10-19-20	Cardinals v. Cowboys +107		38-10	Loss	-100	71 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Cardinals/Cowboys CASH The Dallas Cowboys were going to be a favorite of 3.5 points or so in this game with a healthy Dak Prescott. Prescott was injured and now Andy Dalton steps in. Prescott will be missed, but I think this line is an overreaction. Andy Dalton is the best backup quarterback in the NFL. Dalton was a middle of the road starter for much of his time in Cincinnati. When Dalton is surrounded by decent players as he was earlier in his time with the Bengals, he can be effective. The Cowboys have amazing skill position talent on offense. He is set up for success here. Arizona's defense hasn't been tested so far this year. They have faced Washington, the Jets, and the banged up 49ers offense. This is going to be Arizona's toughest test by far when it comes to offensive talent they line up against. Dallas' defense is a problem, but I think they will use the running game more in this one. With Arizona struggling to stop the run, the Cowboys should be able to keep their defense off the field more often in this game. Arizona is a flawed team, and for them to be favored in Dallas doesn't make sense to me. I'll take Dallas on the moneyline at a plus money price.
10-18-20	Rams v. 49ers OVER 51		16-24	Loss	-114	88 h 10 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The San Francisco 49ers secondary is a mess right now. Miami put up 6.9 yards per play in a win over the 49ers last week. The Rams offense is a top ten offense in the NFL. I don't see the 49ers defense being able to stop the Rams passing attack. There are too many weapons for the Rams, and Sean McVay is good at scheming in a way to attack weaknesses. The Rams should put up a big number here. The 49ers are starting to get healthier on offense. Jimmy G was put in last week when he had little practice, and some of the weapons around him were missing. I think the 49ers offense can be much better this week. The Rams had a couple defensive players banged up in their win at Washington last week, and this is a Rams defense that is very thin at multiple positions. The Rams defense isn't nearly as good as they look on paper. They have faced a very weak slate of offenses. In fact, if you look at the offenses these two defenses have faced so far this year, they rank as the 2nd easiest and 3rd easiest slate of offenses according to Football Outsiders. These defenses are worse than they appear. I see a back and forth game here. Take the over.
10-18-20	Packers v. Bucs OVER 54.5		10-38	Loss	-110	43 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Green Bay Packers offense has been tremendous so far this year. They are averaging 38 points per game thus far this season. Green Bay hasn't had Devante Adams for their last couple games, and he is their best weapon on offense. I don't think Tampa Bay has anyone who can slow Adams down on the outside. Aaron Rodgers has been in great form so far this season. He is willing to take a lot of deep chances, and in past seasons this Tampa secondary has given up a lot of big plays in the passing game. Tampa Bay's offense has been up against some very solid defenses so far this season. The Packers defense will be the worst defense they have faced so far this year. Tampa Bay's wide receivers are finally getting healthy, and this is one of the best groups of receivers in the NFL. I think Tampa will be able to move the ball consistently here too. Jerome Boger's crew is the referee crew for this game. The over is 106-74 (58.9%) in his games. They are known for their consistent pass interference calls on the defense. This is a high total, but I think both teams move the ball and cash in on big plays throughout. Take the over.
10-11-20	Dolphins +8.5 v. 49ers		43-17	Win	100	13 h 47 m	Show
3 Star NFL ATS Systems Play CRUSHER The San Francisco 49ers have had as many injury issues as anyone in the NFL this year. Jimmy G is back under center for them this week and that is clearly a positive. They do expect Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert to at least play part of this game. The 49ers though still have a severe cluster injury concern in the secondary. They are also without star pass rusher Nick Bosa. This defense was never great against the run, and now they aren't nearly as good against the pass as they have been in the past couple seasons. Miami has been pretty competitive this year. They played a pretty tight game at New England in week one. They had more than enough chances to stay within the spread last week against Seattle, but they settled for too many field goals. They did pick up a nice road win at Jacksonville earlier in the season. Byron Jones is expected back in the Dolphins secondary and that is huge for this pass defense. Kyle Shanahan is a really good coach, but he hasn't been good at all as a home favorite. The 49ers have played down to competition in this role in the past. In fact, the 49ers are 0-7 ATS with Shanahan when they are home favorites of 5.5 points or more. They have lost four of those games outright. The 49ers should win here, but Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins should move the ball and there is back door potential here as well. This line is too big. Take Miami.
10-11-20	Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 56		40-32	Loss	-110	36 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas City Chiefs have a tremendous offense. They are more than capable of putting up a big number at any time. Still, Andy Reid's teams have been great under bets when they are big favorites. Why? Reid is often conservative after getting a lead. His teams grab a lead and then use the clock and move on to play another week. Kansas City plays Buffalo in their next contest after this as well, and that will be a huge game for playoff seeding with the Bills sitting at unbeaten so far this year. Las Vegas has a good running game, and I do think they'll get their yards on the ground in this game. The Raiders don't have a good downfield passing game though. The Chiefs actually rank #1 in the NFL in pass defense DVOA so far this year. They now add in Breeland (suspended the first four weeks). This Chiefs secondary is solid. There is wind of 12-15 mph expected here and while that isn't major, that does help the under a bit. The biggest reason I'll bet this game is this system- when Andy Reid's team is at home and favored by 6 or more the under is a whopping 41-19 in the last 60 contests. When the total is 44.5 or higher, the under is 24-7. Take the under.
10-11-20	Panthers +2.5 v. Falcons		23-16	Win	100	10 h 58 m	Show
3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week The Atlanta Falcons are on a short week here after losing on Monday night in Green Bay. Atlanta has found ways to lose time after time. The team really shouldn't be as bad as they are, but they have been badly injured and this team has no confidence right now either. Julio Jones is listed as questionable, but with him not practicing I think he will either sit this one out or be very limited. I don't need to tell you how much this hurts the Atlanta offense. Teddy Bridgewater continues to be underrated. What is his ATS record as a starting quarterback in the NFL. 30 wins and 9 losses! Bridgewater has been money in the bank. Matt Rhule is a good coach who is really doing a nice job with this Panthers team right away. The Falcons likely aren't even listening to Dan Quinn anymore. Quinn's teams continually disappoint. Under Quinn, the Falcons are 18-33 ATS as a favorite. Atlanta's secondary is still somewhat banged up, and their special teams are among the worst in the NFL. Carolina has been very competitive in their losses this year, and this team has clearly improved through the season. The same can't be said on the other side. Take Carolina here. I'll be betting a little bit on the moneyline here as well.
10-04-20	Vikings v. Texans OVER 51.5		31-23	Win	100	155 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet. The Minnesota Vikings had one terrible game offensively against the Indianapolis Colts. That was a fluke, and it turns out the Colts defense is very solid. In their other two games, the Vikings have averaged 7.5 yards per play (Titans) and 7.8 yards per play (Packers). The emergence of Jefferson as another very good weapon on the outside makes the Vikings passing game dangerous. Minnesota's defense is far worse than it was a couple short seasons a go. This Vikings secondary is among the worst in the NFL. They also have a very poor defensive line (especially without Hunter). Houston has played the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far, and the Texans are going to score points against bad defenses. Here is a bad defense in the Vikings. Look for Watson and company to put up some big numbers. Take the over.
10-04-20	Ravens -14 v. Washington Football Team		31-17	Push	0	34 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play on Ravens The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a really poor performance against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Sure, it is a short week to prepare for this game, but Baltimore also enters this game in a bad mood. The Ravens have beaten up on weaker competition under Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson in recent seasons. That should be the case again here. Baltimore has won and covered the last four times they have been favorites of more than a touchdown. Overall in the NFL, in weeks 4 and 5: favorites of 10 points or more are 27-15 ATS (64%) in the last 42. Washington's offense is terrible. Haskins just isn't the answer at quarterback right now. He makes far too many bad decisions with the football. Baltimore is very likely to make him pay. Washington's defensive line is without both Chase Young and Matt Ioannidis on the defensive line. That is normally their biggest strength as a team. Baltimore's running game should work very well here, and this is a get right spot for the Ravens. Lay the points. Take Baltimore.
10-04-20	Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 42.5		31-38	Loss	-105	34 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tampa Bay Bucs defense ranks 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed per game. The rushing defense is as good as you'll find in the NFL, and the secondary is quickly improving. Todd Bowles is a great defensive coordinator and he is really making his mark on this unit. The LA Chargers haven't given up more than 23 points in a game so far this year (and that was KC scoring 23 in overtime against them). The Chargers secondary is very solid, and they have a strong pass rush. Tom Brady hasn't looked in sync yet, and Leonard Fournette is out for this game. Chris Godwin is also out at WR. The Chargers are without two starters on the offensive line. Tampa Bay's defensive front should dominate them here. Justin Herbert is making his first road start here. I expect him to struggle in this one. The weather calls for a 80% chance of rain and some winds of about 10-12 mph during this one as well, which helps the under. Take the under.
10-04-20	Seahawks v. Dolphins OVER 54.5		31-23	Loss	-110	12 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins rank 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Seattle Seahawks rank 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar are both out from the Seattle secondary for this one. Adams is the best player in this secondary, and that is a huge loss for a team that is already giving up a lot of big plays in the air. Three other guys in the Seattle secondary are questionable here. There are major injury issues in the Seattle secondary. Miami cornerback Byron Jones is listed as doubtful here, and he would be a major loss as the Dolphins go against Russell Wilson and this fantastic Seattle passing attack. Seattle has been letting Russell Wilson air it out a lot more often this year, and I see no reason why they would stop here. The Dolphins weakness now is in the secondary and Seattle has clear matchup advantages there. Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of big plays for Miami, especially against a really weak Seattle secondary. Seattle is 30th in explosive play defense, so they have already been giving up bunch of big plays and now they are much more banged up. The weather initially looked questionable for this game, but the current forecast looks much better with a very small chance for rain and less wind (12 mph). Take the over.
09-28-20	Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 54		34-20	Push	0	19 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet. Kansas City's defense has allowed 6.1 yards per play against the Chargers and 6.7 yards per play against the Texans. They have really struggled with mobile quarterbacks in their first two games. That isn't a good weakness to have when you are about to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Kansas City's offense hasn't been amazing so far this year, but we all know it is coming. The Chiefs have too much talent and they are certainly going to finish the season as a top 2 or 3 offense in the NFL. Baltimore gets more big plays in the running game than any other team in the NFL. The Chiefs are weak in that regard. Additionally, the Chiefs are still shorthanded in the secondary without Breeland. I think the Ravens get the lead in this one, and that encourages more scoring here since KC can really play with pace and pile up the points when they are behind. Take the over here.
09-27-20	Packers v. Saints -3		37-30	Loss	-110	40 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play on Saints The Green Bay Packers have been able to feast on bad teams and specifically really bad defenses so far this year. Aaron Rodgers took advantage of a terrible Vikings defense and an awful Lions defense (with a banged up secondary) to put up big numbers. Things will get tougher against a good Saints defense. New Orleans didn't look good on defense on Monday night, but I do still believe this is a quality defense. The secondary is the strength of the team. Devante Adams is now listed as doubtful for the Packers. If he does play he will be far less than 100 percent. The Packers don't have much depth at all at wide receivers. The Saints are much better at home than on the road. New Orleans is a whopping 28-10 ATS in their last 38 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Packers run defense is a weakness, and I think Kamara can do quite a bit of damage here for the Saints. Perception of the Packers is too high now. I'll back the home team laying the short number. Take New Orleans.
09-27-20	Lions v. Cardinals OVER 51.5		26-23	Loss	-110	164 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Arizona Cardinals are playing extremely fast this year. Kyler Murray in the second year of Kingsbury's system will be very good. Hopkins gives him an elite wide receiver. They are likely to finish with the fastest pace in the NFL this season. Arizona moved the ball pretty well against San Francisco, and they moved it very well against a strong Washington defensive front. The Cardinals now take on a very weak Detroit Lions defense. Detroit has major problems in the secondary. Mitch Trubisky lit them up in the 4th quarter in week one. Green Bay averaged 7.4 yards per play in their big win over Detroit. I'm not convinced Detroit will be able to slow down Arizona here. Arizona hasn't been tested very much defensively this year. The Cardinals played a 49ers team with a bunch of injuries on offense in week one. They took on a Washington team that is just weak on offense in their second game. Look for lots of plays in this one and big plays for both sides in the passing game. Take the over.
09-27-20	Bucs v. Broncos UNDER 43		28-10	Win	100	47 h 51 m	Show
4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week The Denver Broncos have a lot of questions, but they are almost all on the offensive side. The Broncos defense still is very strong. Tampa Bay did win last week against Carolina, but they weren't all that good offensively. The Bucs are only averaging 5.3 yards per play this year (24th in the NFL). Denver's offense has been even worse. Denver is averaging only 4.9 yards per play on the season. The Broncos are now with backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. Driskel isn't a big downgrade from Drew Lock, but Driskel is going to have a rough time here against a very strong Tampa Bay defense. I love the job Todd Bowles is doing with the Tampa Bay defense. They have been excellent at stopping the run in recent seasons, and that is still true, but they are much improved all around this year. I don't think the Broncos offensive line will perform well against them. Denver will try to play conservatively here, but I don't think they'll have much success. The weather is another real factor here. The forecast calls for 18-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 35-40 mph. That is plenty to change a game plan. Expect to see a lot of running and short passes. It will be harder to stretch the field. Take the under here.
09-27-20	Rams v. Bills -2.5		32-35	Win	100	129 h 29 m	Show
3 Star Play on Bills The Los Angeles Rams came east and played a good game against the Philadelphia Eagles last week. The Rams deserve a lot of credit for how they've played thus far, but I'm still not convinced this time is great. Los Angeles is now in a very tough spot this week. The Rams fly back all the way to LA, only to turn around and fly back to Buffalo later this week. Buffalo's defense should be able to do enough to make Jared Goff feel more uncomfortable than he has been in the first two weeks of the season. The Buffalo offense is much better this year. Josh Allen has much improved weapons around him, and I really like the way Allen has played so far this year. He threw for over 400 yards last game against pretty good cornerbacks in Miami. The Bills offense is sneaky good. Buffalo is always hard to beat in Buffalo. I think the market is a little too high on the Rams now, and the Bills are the better team all around. I'll lay the short number here. Take Buffalo.
09-27-20	Raiders v. Patriots -6		20-36	Win	100	73 h 20 m	Show
4 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off an emotional win at home on Monday Night Football. It was their first game in Las Vegas, and you have to give them credit for playing a great game to beat the Saints. Las Vegas did struggle with the Panthers on the road in week one though, and the Raiders defense is still a major problem. The New England Patriots came up one yard short against the Seattle Seahawks. Cam Newton showed me a lot in that game. Newton looks very good throwing the football, and he is going to be very dangerous behind this solid offensive line in the run game. The Patriots are upset after a tight loss, and Belichick's teams have done great off a straight up and ATS loss in the past. How good have the Pats been in this spot? They are a whopping 29-5 ATS when they have a straight up losing streak of one or two games and an ATS losing streak of 1-3 games and are -7 or lower. It's a great bounce back spot for the Pats and a let down spot for the Raiders. Take New England.
09-27-20	Bengals v. Eagles OVER 46		23-23	Push	0	73 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cincinnati Bengals defense has one sack so far this year. Without Carson Wentz being pressured constantly, I think this Eagles offense can get going here. Cleveland moved the ball at will against Cincinnati last week. Cincinnati's offense will be clearly improved this year. Joe Burrow has looked very good in his first two games. Remember, he didn't get any preseason, and he has still played very well as a rookie in his first two games. The Bengals should be able to take advantage of the Eagles very weak linebackers. Burrow likes to use his tight ends in the passing game, and that should help here. The Eagles should have the lead here (they are a clear favorite), and the Bengals have played extremely fast when trailing so far this year. The Bengals have shown they have backdoor potential and can move the ball quickly late in the game. This one sits below the key numbers of 47 and 48. With no bad weather in the forecast, I like this one to get past the posted total. Take the over.
09-24-20	Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 47.5		31-13	Loss	-110	41 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins pass defense has struggled badly through their first two weeks. Buffalo threw for more than 400 yards on them a week ago. Byron Jones is doubtful for this game, and he is clearly a very talented member of the Dolphins secondary. Jacksonville's pass offense has been surprisingly effective through the first couple weeks of the season. The Jaguars moved the ball at will against the Titans on Sunday. Gardner Minshew continues to exceed expectations week after week at the quarterback spot. He has a couple nice new weapons this year in Shenault and Eiffert. I think Jacksonville moves it through the air easily in this game. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good over quarterback. He can make the big play downfield, and he can also throw the pick sixes at any time. The Dolphins still have a bunch of speed on the outside, and the Jaguars secondary is a weakness. The offenses have had the edge in the early going in the NFL. Without the fan noise and with the rules set to help offenses as much as possible, I think many of these lower totaled games with two questionable defenses are good over looks. Take the over here.
09-21-20	Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49		24-34	Loss	-110	76 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Las Vegas Raiders open up their new stadium, but they'll do it without fans. This is still a huge game for the franchise. New Orleans is coming off a nice win over the Tampa Bay Bucs in week one. The Saints offense was actually a disappointment though. The Saints only averaged 4.1 yards per play. Michael Thomas is expected to miss this game as well, and he is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL. This limits Drew Brees even further. The Saints don't play quickly, and they don't look to throw it downfield. They are looking for short passes and methodically moving the football. The New Orleans defense is underrated. This is a very good unit. The secondary is excellent and very deep. The Raiders are unlikely to be testing the Saints downfield. I think it is far more likely that the Raiders look to run the football early and often here with Jacobs. Derek Carr doesn't put up huge yardage through the air normally, and the Saints having a defensive coordinator who was previously Carr's coach is helpful to the defense as well. Take the under here.
09-20-20	Panthers v. Bucs -9		17-31	Win	100	83 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play on Tampa Bay The Tampa Bay Bucs lost 34-23 to the New Orleans Saints in week one. While many people were quick to talk about how disappointing Tampa Bay was in that first game, we should take a closer look at that contest and the box score. New Orleans is arguably the best team in the NFC. That was a really tough first game for the Bucs. Tampa Bay outgained New Orleans 310-271. The Bucs averaged 4.8 yards per play, while they held the Saints to only 4.1 yards per play. They were -3 in turnover margin. Tampa Bay's defense looked terrific in week one. Todd Bowles is a great defensive coordinator, and this Bucs defense will improve a lot this season. Tampa Bay's run defense finished first in DVOA last year. They did a great job slowing down Christian McCaffrey in each of their meetings last season. They should do a good job again here. Carolina got almost no pressure on Derek Carr in their loss to the Raiders in week one. I don't think they put much pressure on Brady here either. Carolina's pass rush is one of the weakest in the NFL, and their secondary is extremely banged up. This sets up as a perfect spot for Brady and the Bucs offense to get on track against. Tampa Bay's loss in week one was at least somewhat misleading. Look for them to put up a nice performance here. Take Tampa Bay.
09-20-20	49ers v. Jets UNDER 42.5		31-13	Loss	-110	73 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Francisco 49ers want to run the football early and often, especially with their injury issues right now. Deebo Samuel is out this week. George Kittle is banged up and is questionable here. Kittle might play, but he'll be less than 100 percent. The New York Jets really only do one thing well, and that is stop the run. The front seven has several good run stuffers. The Jets secondary is a weakness and the pass rush isn't very good, but the 49ers likely aren't the team to expose the pass defense weakness in their current form. The Arizona Cardinals moved the ball quite a bit on the 49ers defense last week, but the Jets offense shows no resemblance of the Cardinals offense. The Jets running game is very weak, and Sam Darnold doesn't have enough weapons on the outside either. The 49ers elite pass rush should give Darnold quite a bit of trouble throughout this contest. Look for this game to be played conservatively as the clock keeps ticking away. Take the under.
09-20-20	Rams v. Eagles -1		37-19	Loss	-105	33 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play on Eagles The Philadelphia Eagles looked bad in week one. They aren't that bad of a football team. The Eagles defense actually played great in week one. They held Washington to only 3.4 yards per play. Philadelphia's turnovers and missed 4th down conversions put the defense in a lot of bad spots. Philadelphia had all sorts of trouble with the Washington pass rush. The Rams defensive line has a star in Donald, but the guys around him are no better than average. Johnson is expected back on the line this week for the Eagles and that is huge. Peters is also expected back on the offensive line. The Eagles are much healthier than they were last weekend. The Rams played the Sunday night game against Dallas and were helped by several Dallas key mistakes. Los Angeles has a bit less time to prepare than the Eagles here, and they go east for a 1pm start. The Rams offensive line ranked 31st out of 32 in the NFL last season according to Pro Football Focus. The Eagles are extremely strong on the defensive front, and I expect them to give the Rams line a lot of trouble. Jared Goff goes up against a stronger defensive front this week. Goff has struggled on the road and when he doesn't have time to throw. This line is an overreaction to last week's results. Take Philadelphia.
09-20-20	Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53		39-40	Win	100	33 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Dallas Cowboys moved the ball just fine last week, but they didn't finish off drives. Atlanta put up a bunch of yards and quite a few points on Seattle last week, but their defense was torched by Seattle in the loss. Sean Lee was already out for Dallas, and then the Cowboys best defender and key linebacker Leighton Vander Esch went down with an injury last week. They can't afford to be without him thanks to a thin LB group, but he's out with an injury and he'll be missed badly. Atlanta has arguably the top wide receiver tandem in the NFL. The Cowboys secondary is mediocre at best this year. Look for Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game to pick up big chunks here. Dallas is one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the Falcons have a bottom five defense in the league. The Cowboys have far too many weapons for Atlanta to slow them down in this one. Dak Prescott has all sorts of weapons around him, and I think they will get on track this week. Dallas' group of receivers is a top 3 group of WR's as well. This one is played on the fast track in Dallas, and both quarterbacks should look great against the opposing secondary. Take the over.
09-20-20	Vikings v. Colts OVER 48.5		11-28	Loss	-115	20 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Indianapolis Colts host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Indianapolis' game last week against the Jaguars was misleading. The Colts never punted all game long. They put up more than 400 yards of offense. They had a couple key turnovers and were stopped on 4th down twice. Still, the Colts averaged an impressive 6.4 yards per play. The Minnesota Vikings defense has some major problems in the secondary. Aaron Rodgers was great last week, but those Packers receivers (who outside of Adams aren't all that good) were wide open throughout that game. Minnesota's defensive line is a major weakness without Danielle Hunter as well. The Colts offensive front is one of the best in the NFL, and they should give Phillip Rivers lots of time to throw here. They'll also open up plenty of holes for Taylor to run through. The Vikings run game is very good, and the Colts defensive line is questionable. I think the Vikings will break some big gainers in the run game. Also, I think it is likely the Colts will playing from ahead here, and that will make Minnesota get more aggressive in the passing game. We saw what could happen in a spot like that last week. The Vikings and Packers combined to score a whopping 38 points in the 4th quarter alone. This one is played indoors and that will help both Cousins and Rivers a lot here. Look for plenty of scoring. Take the over.
09-13-20	Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51.5		17-20	Loss	-110	19 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Los Angeles Rams still have more weapons on offense than many people realize. The wide receivers here are still very solid. Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Van Jefferson should be very productive. Jared Goff has shown he can be a quality NFL quarterback when put in the right spots and when given time. Dallas has a middle of the road pass rush. The Cowboys are also without Jourdan Lewis (CB) for this game. The Rams should play with pace here, and I think they'll get some big gainers on a Dallas defense that has some holes in it. Dallas has an amazing trio of wide receivers that is going to give just about any secondary trouble this year. The Rams still have very good corners, but they aren't as strong at the safety spots this year. The Rams LB's are a major weakness this season, and Dallas should be able to expose this group of LB's both in the running game and the passing game. The last four times these two teams have met the game has gone over the total. Look for a 5th straight over. Take the over here.
09-13-20	Cardinals +7 v. 49ers		24-20	Win	100	50 h 19 m	Show
4 Star Play on Arizona Week one is a great time to take divisional underdogs in the NFL. Divisional underdogs are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 in week one in the NFL. Also, teams who won six games or less in the previous season and are underdogs on the road in week one are 49-23 ATS in their last 72 games. Arizona has upgraded some on defense, and the addition of Hopkins at wide receiver makes this team far more dangerous offensively. In year two of Kingsbury's offense with Murray at the helm, we should see a big jump in production. The 49ers are banged up to start the season. San Francisco will either be without Deebo Samuel or he'll be playing at far less than 100% here. The 49ers defense should regress a bit in the secondary. Sherman isn't getting any younger and the guys around him aren't quite as good. Arizona played San Francisco very tough last year, and the Cardinals are better than they were a season ago. Take Arizona.
09-13-20	Packers v. Vikings UNDER 45		43-34	Loss	-108	20 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Green Bay Packers didn't get Aaron Rodgers weapons on the outside like he needed. Green Bay is going to have to lean on the running game even more heavily than they did a year ago. I look for the Packers to slow the pace of the game down and lean on their offensive front and the running backs quite a bit here. Minnesota will be among the most run-oriented offenses of anyone in the NFL. The Vikings have less weapons on the outside than they did a year ago, and they know Kirk Cousins can't just take over the game by himself. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. Last year's games finished with 37 and 33 points total. These two teams know what the other one is going to do here, and that should help the defenses a lot. Bill Vinovich's crew will be doing this game and the under is 58-42 in Vinovich's 100 contests. Also, the under is a whopping 17-3 in the Vikings last 20 vs. a divisional opponent. Take the under.
09-13-20	Jets v. Bills UNDER 40		17-27	Loss	-110	11 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New York Jets offense wasn't good to start with, and Robby Anderson was a pretty big loss at wide receiver in the offseason. Without Ryan Kalil at center, they yet again look very weak on the offensive line. The Buffalo Bills have improved skill position talent on offense, but the offensive line still isn't very good. The Jets have a pretty good run stuffing defensive line, and I think they can hold their own in this matchup. The weather here should be a major factor. The weather report calls for a 95% chance of rain during this game with sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts to 26 mph. That kind of weather makes the play calling far more conservative. It will be harder for Buffalo to try to utilize their new weapons at wide receiver. The two contests between these two teams last year finished with 33 points and 19 points total. Take the under.
09-10-20	Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54		20-34	Push	0	31 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Kansas City Chiefs adds Clyde Edwards-Helaire, which is a scary thought for opposing defenses. He is a great pass catcher out of the backfield, and Patrick Mahomes now has another elite pass catching option. Kansas City put up 51 points on Houston in the playoffs last year in that wild come from behind win. Houston's defense is no better than last season, and it might even be weaker. Kansas City's secondary makes them vulnerable against good passing attacks. The secondary is already a relative weakness, but now they are without Bashaud Breeland. Breeland is a very solid player and a key loss for this defense. Houston will take some shots downfield, and I think they'll have some success there. The Texans are likely to be behind throughout which would make them more aggressive and play faster. The weather conditions are expected to be nice here with very little wind. Look for both quarterbacks to have a big game and this to be a fun high scoring contest. Take the over.
02-02-20	49ers v. Chiefs -1		20-31	Win	100	135 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play on Kansas City The Kansas City Chiefs are the side I'll be backing in the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. Andy Reid has gotten a bad rap from some, but this guy has been a tremendous coach for a long time. Reid has been money in the bank after a bye, and obviously the Super Bowl is played after a week off, so he has extra time to get his team ready for this game. While the Kansas City defense wasn't good earlier this year, they really improved as the year went along. The Chiefs have a quality secondary, and they have a strong pass rush as well. Jimmy G has been good enough for the 49ers this year, but he isn't a guy I trust in a big game. It has looked like Shanahan doesn't trust him a lot either. The 49ers have yet to play a great offense in the playoffs, but that ends here. The Chiefs offense has been the best in the NFL in the last few weeks after Mahomes got healthy. There have been a few teams who have exploited this 49ers defense at times this year (Saints, Falcons, and Rams in the 2nd meeting). The 49ers are certainly a quality team, but they are a young group. If the 49ers get behind by double digits here, they are likely to be out of this one. If the Chiefs get behind, we know they have the ability to come back from behind as they did in their first couple playoff games. Take Kansas City here.
01-19-20	Titans v. Chiefs -7		24-35	Win	100	12 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play on Kansas City The Baltimore Ravens were 10 point home favorites over the Tennessee Titans last week. Baltimore lost that game 28-12. Still, the Ravens did outgain the Titans by 230 yards. Yes, I know they were playing from behind all the way, but the Ravens went 0/4 on 4th down there and they had the key turnovers. The Titans defense didn't look very good on the whole. Tennessee is a good team. The Titans are playing their third straight playoff game on the road. They were able to take advantage of a flawed Patriots team to win on the road in their first game. They were fortunate last week in that the Ravens really handed the game away with the turnovers and missed 4th down conversions. I rate Kansas City as the best team in the NFL. The Chiefs have a superstar at quarterback in Patrick Maholmes. When he has been healthy this year, KC hasn't lost a game. After Baltimore was laying 10 at home against the Titans the number has been adjusted down by 3 points for the Titans playing at Kansas City. I don't agree with that. Kansas City has a better home field advantage than does Baltimore. The Chiefs are at least on par with Baltimore as a team, and I would argue they are slightly better. Kansas City was one play from the Super Bowl last year. I expect Kansas City to come out ready to play in this one after a slow start last week. The Titans have an extremely weak secondary, and you better believe this Chiefs passing attack can exploit that. Ryan Tannehill has been good this year, but I don't trust him to keep up with the Chiefs offense if the Titans are playing from behind. Take Kansas City.
01-12-20	Seahawks +4.5 v. Packers		23-28	Loss	-110	28 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play on Seattle Both of these have been overrated throughout the season based on their yards per play differentials being very weak. I see this as a very even game. Russell Wilson has played the best of the two quarterbacks this season. Seattle's wide receivers have been making big plays late in the season. Green Bay's secondary has been a bit disappointing compared to expectations. The Seahawks play a ton of very close games. Getting 4.5 points in a game they are involved in means more than it would with anyone team. Seattle has made it a habit of covering on the road against good teams. Seattle is 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games on the road against a team with a winning record. They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a road underdog. Neither of these teams are great, but one of them will be in the NFC title game. This feels like a coin flip to me. I'll grab the points. Take Seattle.
01-11-20	Titans v. Ravens UNDER 47		28-12	Win	100	77 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tennessee Titans offense was good late in the season. Ryan Tannehill is clearly an upgrade from Marcus Mariota. Still, the Titans offense didn't face many good defenses during that time. How did Tannehill and the Titans look offensively last week? They played a great defense in the Patriots, but Tannehill didn't look good. He was only 8/15 for 72 yards passing and 1 TD and 1 INT. Derrick Henry got 34 carries in that game. Overall, the Titans had 40 rushing plays compared to only 16 passing plays. Is that a look at what they want to do in this game too? Yes, I would think the Titans want to play keep away and move slowly and run the ball to try to keep it away from the Ravens offense. Baltimore is clearly elite on offense, but the Ravens do run the ball at a good clip too. There is likely to be a lot of ticking clock here. The Titans are a pretty good run defense. Baltimore will get their yards, but the Titans are more likely to keep them from explosive plays than most defenses would be. The weather here calls for 16 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. Rain is likely at least part of the time on Saturday night as well. This kind of weather would be helpful to the under. A game that would likely have conservative play calling would get even more conservative. Take the under.
01-05-20	Vikings v. Saints OVER 49		26-20	Loss	-115	45 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The New Orleans Saints offense played very well down the stretch. After their 26-9 strange loss to the Falcons, the Saints have averaged 34.2 points per game on offense. Minnesota is often thought of as a strong defensive team. That was the case a couple years ago, but that isn't the case any more. The Vikings have major problems in the secondary. This is a bottom six or eight secondary in the NFL overall. The Saints passing game is consistently good enough that I would expect them to expose the Vikings weaknesses here. Dalvin Cook will be back for the Vikings offense, and that makes a massive difference. The Vikings have been very explosive in the running game, and Cook makes the passing game much better as well. Kirk Cousins has a lot of weapons around him. The Saints are banged up defensively, and I think that hurts them in this game. The over has done well in playoff games in domes. In fact, the over is 29-13 in the last 42 playoff games played in a dome. I think both offenses have the upper hand here. Take the over.
12-29-19	Steelers v. Ravens +2		10-28	Win	100	24 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play on Ravens John Harbaugh has made it no secret that he wants to win football games, even when they don't mean anything. How has Baltimore done in the preseason? The Ravens have won an amazing 17 straight games in the preseason. Maybe no one else cares then, but the Ravens certainly do. Harbaugh has said he believes winning football games can become habitual, and he wants to see his team win. Baltimore doesn't have to win this game, and they are wise to sit out key players like Jackson and Ingram here. Still, Baltimore has proven they are a really deep team. The Ravens have a good backup in RG3 and he is playing behind a strong offensive line. Pittsburgh has an outside chance at the playoffs still. The Steelers will be playing hard. They are on third string quarterback Duck Hodges though, and that is a major problem. It's also a big problem that they are without Pouncey on the offensive line and Conner in the backfield. The Ravens defense isn't great at stopping the run, but the Steelers aren't very good at running it right now. Pittsburgh controlled their own destiny before last week. They had to win at New York and they had to win this game. They lost to the Jets. The Steelers will want to win here, but I'm not sure they can. Baltimore would be glad to beat their rival and keep them out of the playoffs. Take Baltimore.
12-29-19	Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 46		21-31	Loss	-110	44 h 3 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Kansas City Chiefs defense is much better than most people realize. In the second half of the season, the Chiefs defense has put up some tremendous numbers. Kansas City's secondary is now one of the best in the NFL. I don't see the Chargers having the running game to move the ball consistently on the Chiefs either. The Chargers are without their top two offensive linemen, and that has hurt them a lot down the stretch. Phillip Rivers has become a liability for the Chargers. I expect him to struggle against this strong KC pass rush and strong Chiefs secondary. Kansas City's offense actually ranks among the five slowest in the NFL in the last half of the season in pace of play. The Chiefs have slowed down their tempo drastically. Kansas City is still very good offensively, but the Chargers defense has been good at limiting big plays. The Chiefs as home favorites under Andy Reid have been great to under bettors. In fact, when Kansas City is a favorite of 8.5 points or more at home the under is 24-6-2 in the last 32 contests. The Chiefs are likely to have the lead here, and I could see them sitting on this game late. The weather is a question mark here too. Winds of 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph are forecast for this game. That is clearly a positive for the under. Take the under.
12-22-19	Steelers v. Jets +3.5		10-16	Win	100	22 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play on Jets The Pittsburgh Steelers offense is really weak right now. Yes, the Steelers have an excellent defense. Can the Steelers be laying this price on the road though against a team who has played well at home? I don't think so. Pittsburgh was fortunate to beat Arizona on the road (punt return TD) and the Steelers narrowly defeated the Bengals on the road as well. Sam Darnold has played well at home this year. The Jets defense has been tremendous at stopping the run. What will Pittsburgh do here? The Steelers will want to run the ball, but I'm not sure that they can. Hodges had an ugly game last week, and they likely don't trust him much at this point. There is clearly sharp involvement here on the Jets, and I will back the home team here as well. I think the Jets have a real chance of winning outright, but this is a very low totaled game so I'll grab the points and I'll sprinkle just a little on the moneyline as well. Take the New York Jets.
12-15-19	Falcons +11 v. 49ers		29-22	Win	100	47 h 24 m	Show
3 Star Play on Falcons The Atlanta Falcons have been playing hard of late. This defense has improved drastically in recent weeks. They have been strong against the run. San Francisco is a run heavy team, and I think that plays into the strength of this Atlanta defense. San Francisco is coming off a road trip where they lost by 3 to Baltimore in a hard fought game and then beat the Saints in an epic last second victory last weekend. San Francisco is batting Seattle for the division. They host the LA Rams next week in a big game. They then go to Seattle in their final game. Both of those games are games they should be more motivated in than in this spot. This is a sandwich spot where I would expect the 49ers to be happy to get out with a win and not look to get a margin. I'll grab the double digit points here. Take Atlanta.
12-15-19	Texans v. Titans OVER 48		24-21	Loss	-110	155 h 54 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Tennessee Titans offense has really improved drastically under Ryan Tannehill. I don't think anyone could have expected the Titans to get this much better with the quarterback change. Marcus Mariota just wasn't getting it done, and Tannehill has been much more aggressive. The fact that Tannehill is looking downfield more often and is keeping opposing defenses honest has made things easier on the Titans running game as well. The over is 7-0 in the 7 games Tannehill has started since the quarterback change. Only one of those games fell below this number. Houston played terribly in their loss to Denver. The Texans need to put it back together here. I do think Houston has the ability to take advantage of the Titans primary weakness on defense (their secondary). Tennessee hasn't been tested in the secondary many times of late, but they face a great quarterback and some excellent receivers here. Both of these teams are willing to take deep shots and both teams have question marks at the safety spots. I see both offenses having quite a bit of success here. Take the over.
12-15-19	Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 45.5		3-23	Win	100	44 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Denver Broncos defense has played well in recent weeks. Denver seems like a team that wants to play hard to the end of the season. Fangio deserves some credit for keeping this team interested after a really poor start to the season. The Kansas City defense has played very well of late. They are still susceptible against the run, but this is a much improved secondary. Patrick Mahomes is clearly not 100% healthy now, and that has hurt the Chiefs ability to get big plays on offense. The Chiefs have a long history of playing unders when they are big favorites at home. When Kansas City is a home favorite of 6 points or more the under is 39-17 in their last 56 games. When the total is at least 44.5- the under is a whopping 22-5. The weather here looks helpful for the under. Winds of about 12 mph with snow are likely during this game. That should make both teams more cautious with their play calling. Take the under.
12-08-19	Seahawks v. Rams -105		12-28	Win	100	51 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play on Rams ML The Seattle Seahawks have been extremely fortunate this year. Seattle is 14th in the NFL in yards per play margin and yet they are somehow 10-2. Seattle is +10 in turnover margin which is likely to regress toward the mean. They also can't keep winning every single close game they play in. This game means more to the LA Rams than the Seahawks. Seattle would definitely benefit from winning as well since they are in a race with San Francisco, but the Rams need this win badly if they are to have any chance at making the playoffs. Jared Goff is a mediocre quarterback, but at home he has been much better. He faces a Seattle secondary that is far weaker than many realize. The Rams have plenty of good weapons on the outside, and I think he'll have a lot of open receivers here. The Rams should have won in Seattle earlier this year. They missed a FG right at the end of that game. Seattle is coming off an emotional win on Monday night. The Rams had some extra rest and time to prepare. I'll look for some regression from Seattle, and I'll back the Rams in a huge game for them. Take the Rams on the moneyline.
12-08-19	Steelers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5		23-17	Win	100	47 h 6 m	Show
4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week The Pittsburgh Steelers have major injury issues on offense. Duck Hodges is now the starter at quarterback. He hasn't necessarily done anything wrong, but he is clearly a below average NFL starting quarterback. He doesn't have much help around him either. Smith-Schuster and Conner are both out for this game and that is a big hit to the Steelers offense. Pittsburgh's defense has carried them this year. The Steelers defense in its current state is a top five defense in the NFL. They have been able to force a ton of turnovers and they have a good red zone defense. Arizona's offense has been very up and down. The Cardinals have put up some big yardage numbers in the fourth quarter (garbage time) of some losses. Kyler Murray is coming off a really poor game and he is less than 100 percent healthy. The under is 23-4 in the Steelers last 27 road games where they are a favorite. They have played a lot of tight low scoring games. I think that happens again here. Take the under.
12-08-19	Panthers v. Falcons UNDER 47.5		20-40	Loss	-110	44 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Atlanta Falcons defense has played much better of late. Atlanta has allowed 347 yards or less in four of their last five games. Atlanta is giving up 368 yards per game for the season, but their defense has been trending quickly in the right direction. It's also important to point out that Atlanta has played the toughest slate of opposing offenses in the NFL so far this season. Some more positive regression to the mean is likely. The Atlanta offense has been disappointing. Matt Ryan appears to be playing at far less than 100 percent. The Falcons running game is inconsistent as well. Carolina's defense is stronger in the secondary. I'm not sure Atlanta can consistently take advantage of the Carolina weakness against the run. Carolina's offense has really tailed off in recent weeks. They are too dependent on McCaffrey. He is great, but they don't have enough around him. Opposing teams are scheming to stop him more and more, and the Panthers haven't been able to make them pay. Take the under here.
12-02-19	Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 48.5		30-37	Win	100	7 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Seattle Seahawks secondary is a major weakness. Even without Thielen, the Vikings have plenty of weapons to take advantage of this weakness. Kirk Cousins has been playing great football of late. He has an elite tight end to throw the ball to, and the group of receivers here are still above average. The Vikings secondary which was once seen as a strength is now showing by the numbers as a weakness. Minnesota is likely to give up some big plays here to Russell Wilson and his solid group of receivers. Minnesota has had 5 of their last 6 games reach at least 49 points. The only one in that stretch that didn't was a win over the lowly Redskins. The Vikings games have been sailing over the posted total. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in 8 of their last 9 games. Seattle is giving up 24 points per game. With the move below the key number of 49, I like the value on the over here. Take the over.
12-01-19	Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 51		9-40	Win	100	61 h 52 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Kansas City Chiefs host the Oakland Raiders in a divisional battle on Sunday afternoon. Kansas City is a double digit favorite in this game. Oakland is going to do everything they can do to run the football as many times as possible here and keep the ball away from Kansas City's offense. The Chiefs aren't giving up too many big plays in the running game, but they are susceptible to giving up a few yards every time. I think Oakland can take quite a bit of time off the clock here. Kansas City has been a great under team off a bye with Andy Reid. That's partially because the Chiefs have been winning nearly every game off a bye with Reid. That helps because Reid and the Chiefs do slow the tempo down and get far more conservative later in the game with a lead. The under is 37-15 in the last 52 times Kansas City was a home favorite of 5.5 points or more. The weather will be a factor in this game too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20-22 mph and gusts of 35 mph or higher. That should lead to a few less big plays. Take the under.
11-28-19	Bills v. Cowboys -6.5		26-15	Loss	-109	48 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play on Cowboys The Dallas Cowboys are a much better team than the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are a decent team, but they aren't nearly as good as their record would indicate. The Bills have played the easiest schedule in the NFL, and it isn't even close. Buffalo has beaten teams who are 19-53 on the season. The Bills defense has played the weakest slate of offenses so far this year. Buffalo's defense is pretty good, but they are up against an elite offense in Dallas. In fact, the Cowboys rank number one in the NFL in yards per play at 6.71 for the season. Buffalo was blasted at home against the Eagles in a test earlier this year. They also lost on the road against a mediocre Cleveland team. This is a road game on a short week, which is a clear negative, and they are playing against a far superior team. Dallas hasn't been great in recent games, but this is a good get right spot for them. Take the Cowboys.
11-24-19	Jaguars v. Titans OVER 41.5		20-42	Win	100	38 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Tennessee Titans offense has been significantly better with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback vs. Marcus Mariota. Mariota wasn't taking enough chances, and he was holding onto the football too long. The Titans have scored 28.75 points per game in their last four contests. The running game has been solid all along, but now opposing defenses have to respect their downfield passing attack. The Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has been a big problem this year, and I expect the Titans to take advantage of that here. The Titans defense has been solid this year, but they haven't faced that many strong offenses. The Titans have still allowed a lot of big plays. Tennessee has given up 9 plays of 30 yards or more (23rd in the NFL). Jacksonville has allowed 12 plays of 30 yards or more (30th in the NFL). The Titans are far more capable of taking advantage and getting those big plays than they have been in the past. The weather looks good for this game and the total is set very low. Take the over.
11-24-19	Raiders v. Jets +3		3-34	Win	103	35 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play on Jets The New York Jets have definitely played better in recent weeks. The Jets were an awful team without Sam Darnold. They simply didn't have another decent option. Darnold has been a bit up and down since returning, but he is far better than any other quarterback they have on their roster. Oakland relies heavily on the running game. The Raiders rank top 5 in the NFL in percentage of offensive plays that are a run. The New York Jets defense is 1st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Raiders have played tight games recently against some very weak opponents (Bengals and Lions). Those were both at home. Now, Oakland must go on the road and take on a Jets team playing with confidence. Oakland ranks 19th in special teams DVOA and the Jets are 3rd. The Jets are -6 in turnover margin this year, and that should regress some over time. Getting the full 3 is key here, and I like the spot for the home team. Take the Jets.
11-24-19	Dolphins v. Browns OVER 45.5		24-41	Win	100	35 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cleveland Browns haven't played a below average defense all season thus far. It's pretty amazing to think about that this deep in the season that would be the case, but the Browns offense has been up against so far this year. That changes here when they face one of the two or three worst defenses in the NFL in the Miami Dolphins. Baker Mayfield has slowly started to look a bit better. The Browns offense is pretty healthy right now, and the Dolphins secondary is banged up and is a big weakness. The Browns running game has been solid all year. Miami's offensive stats are skewed for the season. The Dolphins were horrible without Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. That's not to say that they are great with him, but they are much better than they were with Rosen at quarterback. Fitzpatrick can be a positive for the over for two reasons. He takes a lot of chances and can get big plays for his team. He can also create big plays for the other team in the form of picks that create a short field. With the Browns without Garrett their pass rush is much weaker than normal. Take the over.
11-17-19	Bears v. Rams UNDER 41		7-17	Win	100	101 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Chicago Bears have proven what they are at this point. The Bears are a team with a really good defense and a terrible offense. Trubisky isn't the answer at QB, and the offensive line in front of him has been a disappointment as well. Does that sound familiar? The Rams defense isn't as good as the Bears, and the Rams offense is better than the Bears, but there are a lot of similarities here. Jared Goff has been a huge disappointment. The Rams offensive line is a mess. They haven't been good and they are banged up as well. These two teams met each other last year and the Bears won 15-6. I couldn't expect a game that low scoring again, but I do think it will be a defensive battle. The Bears have played six games to a total of 36 points or lower this year. The Rams have played five games to a total of 36 points or lower this year. Take the under.
11-17-19	Saints v. Bucs OVER 50		34-17	Win	100	95 h 19 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Tampa Bay Bucs defense has allowed 33.42 points per game in their last seven games. Tampa Bay's pass defense is absolutely horrendous. Vernon Hargreaves hadn't performed up to what was expected, but releasing him definitely didn't make this secondary any better. Tampa Bay has only allowed less than 27 points in a single game all year. That was their win over Carolina early in the year where Cam Newton was clearly hurt. This Bucs defense is really bad. New Orleans has scored 40, 28, and 31 points against Tampa Bay in the last three meetings. Coming off a bad performance last week, I would expect the Saints offense to bounce back in a big way here. The Saints defense will likely be without Marshon Lattimore, and he is the key to the Saints secondary. Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston is inconsistent, but the Bucs are loaded at wide receiver and they should be able to move the ball and score plenty in this one too. The over is 7-0 in the Bucs last 7. Take the over.
11-17-19	Jets +2.5 v. Redskins		34-17	Win	100	44 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play on Jets I have to fade the Washington Redskins here. Haskins simply does not look ready. The Redskins haven't surrounded him with much either. Washington badly wants to run the football right now, but the Jets defense is excellent against the run. In fact, the Jets rank number one in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Sam Darnold has been up and down this year, but I definitely feel better about him than Haskins at this point. The Jets also seem to want to win, and the Redskins have been rumored to be tanking this season. In a game that should be really ugly and low scoring, I'll always want to lean toward taking the points. In this case, I definitely want the points since the Jets defense should force Haskins to beat them. Take the New York Jets.
11-10-19	Vikings v. Cowboys UNDER 48.5		28-24	Loss	-109	19 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys are two of the most run heavy teams in the NFL. Minnesota ranks 3rd highest in the league in percentage of plays that are a rush. Dallas ranks 6th highest in the league in percentage of plays that are a run. These two run defenses have been excellent at not giving up big running plays this year. Dallas has allowed only one run all year of 20 yards or more. That's the best in the NFL. Minnesota has allowed only two runs of 20 yards or more so far this year. That's second best in the NFL. With a lot of running plays and teams who have been good at avoiding giving up big plays, I see a lot of moving clock and long drives here. If we get some drives where they take a lot of time off the clock and kick a field goal or don't score at all, it's a big plus for the under. Take the under.
11-10-19	Panthers +5 v. Packers		16-24	Loss	-105	16 h 51 m	Show
3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week The Green Bay Packers run defense is a major problem. Christian McCaffrey has been great all season, and I expect a big game from him here. The Panthers run game is excellent, and Kyle Allen has been doing a nice job dumping the ball off to the backs out of the backfield. Green Bay ranks in the bottom five defenses in the NFL in pass defense against running backs. Look for Carolina to consistently move the football on Green Bay here. Look for them to have long scoring drives. Carolina has the most sacks in the NFL. Green Bay's offensive line is middle of the road. Carolina should be able to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers here. Carolina is beatable on the ground, but Green Bay's ground game hasn't been consistent this year. Green Bay has been fortunate multiple times at home this year (Vikings, Lions, and even Raiders to a lesser extent). The Packers aren't as good as their record would indicate. Take Carolina and the points.
11-10-19	Dolphins v. Colts OVER 43.5		16-12	Loss	-103	15 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins offense has been middle of the pack the last few weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually playing pretty well right now. It's clear he is a big improvement from Josh Rosen. The Dolphins should be able to move the ball here against a Colts defense that is mediocre at best. Brian Hoyer gets the start here and the Colts are definitely short handed on offense, but this Miami defense is very bad. Miami has faced the 28th toughest slate of offenses this year, but still ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They have been especially bad in the secondary, and they have a cluster injury problem in the secondary right now. Even with the Colts banged up on offense, I think Frank Reich and this Colts offense will have a good game plan to take advantage of this Miami secondary. This is a low total for a dome with two questionable defenses. Take the over.
11-04-19	Cowboys v. Giants OVER 47.5		37-18	Win	100	24 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Dallas Cowboys are first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas had a bye week to get ready for this game. The Cowboys put it on Philadelphia in their last game. They should be up for this game though. They lost at New York against the lowly Jets earlier this year, and the Giants and Cowboys don't like each other. The Giants offense has shown the ability to move the ball pretty well this year when they are healthy. They have their skill position stars back in Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram. They should be able to make enough big plays to score a decent amount. The Giants secondary is a bottom five group in the NFL, and I expect Dak Prescott and his healthy group of receivers to beat them once again here. Ezekiel Elliot is a top two or three back in the NFL and he'll get his as well. I think this total is set too low. Take the over.
11-03-19	Packers v. Chargers OVER 48.5		11-26	Loss	-109	16 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Green Bay Packers offense has been on fire of late. Green Bay is averaging 32.3 points per game in their last six games. Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack have gotten it going. Now, Davante Adams is slated to come back from his injury in this one barring a setback in pregame warmups. Green Bay should be able to take advantage of a Chargers secondary that is weak at the safety spot. Injuries have really hurt that unit. The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator, and I think this offense will be more aggressive and move a little quicker under their new offensive coordinator. Phillip Rivers still has some pretty good playmakers around him. Green Bay has allowed 11 plays of 40 yards or more (worst in the NFL), so the Packers can be beaten deep. We are under the key number of 49 here, and I'll back the over in this spot. Take the over.
11-03-19	Lions v. Raiders OVER 50		24-31	Win	100	74 h 54 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Detroit Lions offense is more pass heavy without Johnson at running back. Detroit is 5th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, so the Lions have been able to get quite a few big gainers in the passing game. The Raiders pass defense ranks 28th in yards per pass allowed. Matt Stafford and this Lions passing attack should have a lot of success here. Oakland has been good both on the ground and through the air this year. The Raiders rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play. Detroit ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Darius Slay is banged up and is questionable. Mike Daniels is also questionable for the Lions defense. They aren't that good to begin with, and now they are short handed. Both of these teams have given up far more big plays than the average team in the NFL. Expect a lot of explosive plays in this one. The weather looks good in this one, and the number has dropped a little. I think the over is a nice value here. Take the over.
11-03-19	Bucs +5.5 v. Seahawks		34-40	Loss	-110	63 h 4 m	Show
4 Star Play on Tampa Bay The Tampa Bay Bucs are 2-5 this year, but the Bucs are +0.22 ypp margin which is 12th in the NFL so far this year. That's impressive when you consider the schedule Tampa Bay has played thus far. Tampa Bay has played the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL. The Bucs have road wins at Carolina and against the LA Rams. They absolutely should have won last week at Tennessee as well. Tampa Bay is far better than their record would indicate. Seattle is always far worse than their record would indicate. The Seahawks are 6-2, but they have played the 25th toughest schedule in the NFL so far this year. Seattle has a -0.26 ypp margin on the year (23rd) even against that very weak schedule. The Seahawks are getting too much respect at home right now. They beat the Bengals by a point at home. They were fortunate to beat the Rams by a point at home. They also were beaten handily by the Ravens at home. The Tampa Bay run defense ranks 1st in the NFL. Seattle runs at the 4th highest percentage of any team in the NFL. Seattle's defense isn't good anymore, and I think the Bucs star receivers have big advantages against this Seattle secondary. Grab the points. Take Tampa Bay.
11-03-19	Texans v. Jaguars +1		26-3	Loss	-105	9 h 45 m	Show
3 Star NFL Early Morning CASH The Houston Texans have cluster injuries in the secondary. Houston is now also without their star pass rusher J.J. Watt after he went down with an injury last week. Gardner Minshew has been really good for the Jaguars at quarterback. He doesn't have a cannon for an arm, but he is an accurate passer and he can keep plays alive with his feet. The Jaguars running game is much improved this year (4.8 yards per carry), and the Jaguars should have a balanced attack that is tough for Houston to slow down. The Texans offense is all about keeping Watson upright. The offensive line is better than past years, but they are still the biggest weakness for the team. The Jaguars rank third in the NFL in sacks. Minshew and the Jaguars lost 13-12 to Houston on the road earlier this year. The Jaguars outgained the Texans in that game. Houston's injuries are far worse now than they were in that first game. Also, Jacksonville goes to London every single year. The Jaguars are 3-1 in their last 4 games in London. Many coaches have said it is very hard to play this game for teams who aren't accustomed to the long flight and different setup. Houston is playing this London game for the first time here. This is a clear advantage for Jacksonville. Take Jacksonville.
10-27-19	Raiders v. Texans OVER 51.5		24-27	Loss	-108	52 h 46 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Oakland Raiders offenses has had some really nice schemes planned this year. Jon Gruden is doing a good job putting Derek Carr in good spots. The Oakland running game is better than expected this year as well. Oakland's defense is terrible. The Raiders are especially weak in the secondary. They just traded away Gareon Conley to the Texans. Conley was the most talented player the Raiders had in the secondary. Oakland was already getting torched by opposing quarterbacks, and it won't get better now. Oakland allowed Aaron Rodgers and a bunch of backup WR's to light them up last week. Houston's last three games have finished with 85, 55, and 53 points. The Texans defense is giving up a lot of big plays. Houston's offense is hitting a lot more big gainers through the air too. Oakland and Houston have both improved on the offensive line compared to last year. Look for both teams to move the ball with ease in the dome at Houston on Sunday. Take the over.
10-27-19	Panthers v. 49ers UNDER 42.5		13-51	Loss	-110	75 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This San Francisco 49ers defense is the real deal. Their defensive front is arguably the best in the NFL. San Francisco is doing a great job keeping everything in front of them. The 49ers have only allowed 12 plays of 20 yards or more all year long. That is the best in the NFL. Carolina's defense ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Panthers don't have any clear weaknesses on this side of the football. With a solid group of linebackers, the Panthers should be good all year on defense. The weather forecast for this game calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts of 35-40 mph during this game. That is enough wind to change the game a lot. That kind of weather tends to make teams far more conservative. That should mean more running clock and that clearly helps the under. Take the under here.
10-27-19	Chargers v. Bears UNDER 41		17-16	Win	100	13 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Chicago Bears defense is absolutely loaded. The Bears defense ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Bears have faced the 10th toughest slate of offenses so far this year as well. The Bears have dominated on defense at times this year, and I think they will be very good here after losing a couple straight contests. They need this game. The Chargers offense is 12th in yards per play this year. They have faced the 28th toughest slate of defenses. This is easily the best defense they have had to go up against this year. The Bears offense is still a mess. Chicago has only 14 plays of 20 yards or more all season. They have only 1 play of 40 yards or more. The Chargers defense isn't great, but they have had poor fumble luck and they are good at preventing big plays. I don't see either team consistently driving up and down the field here. There is expected to be a 10-12 mph sustained wind at Soldier Field with gusts up to 20 mph during this one. Take the under.
10-21-19	Patriots v. Jets UNDER 42.5		33-0	Win	100	176 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Patriots are an under team to me until proven otherwise. Even in their game last week the under was the right side, but there were 3 special teams/defensive touchdowns to send the game just barely above the total. New England has slowed their pace down dramatically this year and they are leaning on the running game more often. Tom Brady isn't surrounded by as many playmakers as he was in the past. The Patriots defense this year is amazing. New England is a top two or three defense in the NFL (they might be the best). The Jets hit some big plays against the Cowboys, but I don't think as many of those big gainers will be available against this Pats defense. The Jets play at a very slow pace and rely on the ground game a lot. We should see a lot of moving clock in this one. Take the under.
10-20-19	Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 49		10-37	Loss	-109	49 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Eagles and Cowboys is always a heated contest. Philadelphia and Dallas both have quality quarterbacks and good skill position players around them. Carson Wentz has been a bit up and down in his time in the league, but he has a high upside and I think he is trending in the right direction. The Eagles have been able to get more big gainers of late, and I think they have some matchups they can exploit against a Dallas secondary that is badly banged up right now. The Cowboys rank first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas hasn't cashed in touchdowns often enough, but I would expect that to improve. The Eagles secondary has been a problem all year long. Jerome Boger's crew is calling this game. They are well known for defensive penalties and high scoring games. The over is 97-69 in Boger's crews contests all time. Take the over.
10-20-19	49ers v. Redskins UNDER 43		9-0	Win	100	161 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Washington Redskins have a new coach in Callahan, and he has made it clear he wants to run the football early and often. They will have a slow tempo and be far more conservative. The Redskins had 33 rushing plays on Sunday against the Dolphins. I expect to see them try to run it and keep the ball away from the 49ers offense. San Francisco's defense has been amazing so far this year. Their performance against the Browns opened a lot of eyes, and then they backed it up with an even more impressive performance defensively against the Rams on Sunday. The 49ers defensive line is excellent and the secondary is one of the best in the NFL. San Francisco has the highest percentage of running plays of any team in the NFL so far this year. They'll run the ball and eat up a lot of clock as well here. With a moving clock and a Redskins offense that is unlikely to be able to do much here, I see a low scoring contest. Take the under.
10-13-19	Cowboys v. Jets UNDER 45		22-24	Loss	-117	37 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Dallas Cowboys rank first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas has an above average offense, but they aren't the best offense in the NFL. They have played the weakest schedule of defenses of anyone in the NFL so far this year. Dallas has taken advantage of the Dolphins, Giants, and Redskins in 3 of their first 5 games. The New York Jets rank dead last in the NFL in yards per play. The Jets get Darnold back this weekend, but he isn't likely to fix this offense right away. Dallas' defense should come into this game upset after struggling last week against Green Bay. The Jets have the slowest pace of play in the NFL, and I expect them to try to run the ball a lot and keep the Dallas offense off the field. The under is 26-10 in the Cowboys last 36 road games. With the move up during the week, I see value on the under. Take the under here.
10-13-19	Falcons v. Cardinals OVER 47		33-34	Win	100	166 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Arizona Cardinals offense had a lot of success against Cincinnati last weekend. I don't think the Cardinals offense will be all that good against quality defenses this year, but I do think they'll have a lot of success against the bottom of the barrel defenses. The Atlanta Falcons secondary is an absolute nightmare. Dan Quinn's defense is blowing assignments and giving up way too many big plays. Kyler Murray had a confidence building game last weekend, and I expect him to have a good game here. Arizona's secondary is a big problem as well. Matt Ryan and the Falcons still have a lot of weapons on the outside. Look for Ryan to find a lot of open receivers on Sunday afternoon in Arizona. A lot of tempo in this one and this number is too low. Take the over.

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