Sports Picks & Predictions

The Carolina Panthers had it all going in the first half of the season at 6-2. They have yet to win a game in the 2nd half where they are 0-4. I think the market has now under-valued this team. The Panthers despite losing their last 3 out-gained all 3 opponents. last week may have been rock bottom for Cam Newton as he threw 4 INT's, something he hadn't done since his rookie year. The Browns are 2-12 ATS in a game following scoring less than 14 points. The Panthers fit a situation that is 54-16 ATS in this one. Make the play on Carolina.

Eagles fit a situation that is 77-122-6 ATS. An under .500 team playing as a favorite off a win of 3 points or less. (33-58-1 ATS if it is a division game). Make the play on Washington.

The Cleveland Browns have win 2 straight games for the first time in their last 66 games. The history in the NFL is such that is shows teams off a pair of dog wins struggle in their next game. It will certainly not be easy going against a Houston team that opened the season 0-3 but have rattled off 8 straight wins. The Texans are fresh off a Monday Night Football win over Tennessee 34-17. A team coming off a Monday Night win of 17 or more points is 91-61-4 ATS. Houston is rolling and all the situations point to rolling once again. Make the play on Houston.

he Tampa Bay Bucs have gone back and forth between Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. They finally won a game 27-9 but that was vs the Niners who are 2-9. They are allowing over 30ppg on the season. The Panthers after winning and covering 3 straight, have now lost and failed to cover in 3 straight. The last 2 were by a total of 4 points so they are not getting buried. They put up 42 points, a season high vs Tampa in the first meeting. The Tampa Bay offense has been elite, aside from nasty turnovers which have plagued them all season, but as good as it is the defense is equally bad. Winston has just 10 TDs to 11 INTs on the season. He owns just a 78.2 passer rating in his career vs Carolina 5 TDs and 9 INTs, and just 14.8ppg in 6 starts. Newron is 9-3 SU/ATS vs TB, producing 29ppg in the 12 contests. Make the play on Carolina.

Time has pretty much run out on the Falcons at 4-7 on the season, even running the table would likely leave them short of the playoffs, and they certainly don't look like a team ready to run the table. The insertion of QB Lamar Jackson has transformed the Ravens running game from 27th to 11th in just 2 weeks. It has helped the #1 ranked Raven defense to be even better. The Falcons have a lot of offensive weapons but they just aren't clicking having scored less than 20 points 3 straight games, scoring just 19 total points in the first half in the 3 games. perhaps worse than that the Falcons are allowing 28ppg against them. Matt Ryan is just 20-35 ATS in his last 55 starts as a favorite. Make the play on Baltimore.

The Red River Rivalry 2.0 takes on even more meaning in this game as Oklahoma is fighting to make the 4 team playoff while Texas looks to win the B-12 Championship for the first time since 2009. Texas is getting better fast under Tom Herman, and a win in this game or their Bowl game will give the Horn's their first 10 win season since 2009. Since Sept. 16, 2009 Texas has been in all bit one game despite a turnover disadvantage in all but one. Here are the Texas losses over the period:

Since Sept. 16, 2017 TX has lost 8 games, aside from a 24-3 loss to TCU last year those losses:

MD      29-34    -5    -3 in turnovers

OKST  35-38    -3     EVEN     OKST FG as time expired

WVA    41-42   -1     -1            WVA score 0:16 left

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2017:

TXT    23-27    -4     -2         TXT score with 1:47 left

OKL    24-29   -5     +1         OKL  59 pass 6:59 left

USC    24-27   -3     -2          USC OT

OKST  10-13   -3    E            OKST OT

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This team despite  -7 in turnovers in these games has been right there in every game. Herman is 12-1 ATS as dog 9-4 SU, but if you go back to when he was OC at Iowa St. 23-1 ATS as dog! 

Oklahoma is the best all-time offense in NCAA Football history at this point, but what the offense has given the defense has for the most part taken away. The Sooners since the beginning of November have had trouble getting separation allowing 40+ points in all 4 games winning by an average of 6 points per game and allowing 47.2 a contest. That includes Kansas going over 500 yards and scoring 40 points. To put that in perspective, the Jayhawks have not scored as many as 35 points in a B-12 Conference game since Nov. 6, 2010! Texas has had Oklahoma's number and is 7-7 SU in the last 14 meetings, but 10-3-1 ATS. Oklahoma is also 1-6 ATS when they face Texas and have 2 more wins than Texas since 1989. Texas held a 45-24 lead in the first meeting with 9 minutes left, and imploded for a 48-45 loss. The Horn's had 3 turnovers in that game, and considering the Oklahoma defense had forced just 7 other turnovers the entire season, that was just pure bad luck. The last 5 meetings have all been decided by 7 points or less, and I don't see this one being any different. make the play on Texas.

The Washington Huskies did a lot of disappointing this season. many had this team pegged as a playoff contender coming into the season, but they finished 9-3. There are some reasons, especially regarding the offense. RB Myles Garrett was a pre-season All-American. Garrett spent most of the season injured, missed 2 games, and has just gotten healthy and the numbers show it. Three of his top 4 rushing games were in the last 3 weeks, including a season-high 178 last week vs Washington St. TE Hunter Bryant was a pre-season All Pac-12, but he missed 9 games. He is healthy and averaging 24 yards a catch and like Garrett, his last game was his best. Don't underestimate the loss of LT Troy Adams as well, another pre-season All-American that missed the first 10 games, but is healthy again. Utah lost QB Tyler Huntley for the season and freshman Jason Shelley has taken over. Shelley has put up similar numbers to Huntley, but this is now a freshman in a Championship game vs the best defense he has seen all year, and that could change. RB Zack Moss has also been lost for the season. Washington stopped the Utah offense cold earlier in the season in a 21-7 win, and have all their pieces together now on offense, and are much better than they were then, while Utah has lost a lot from that game offensively. Washington was -4.5 at Utah and now just -5.5 on a neutral field, despite key offensive players lost by Utah, and 3 huge offensive players added and healthy for Washington? Make the play on Washington.

Typically the favorite in Thursday games has a tremendous advantage on the short week as evidenced by their 133-87-8 ATS record. However, this week both teams are in a rare event, both having played on Thursday last week. Dallas has bee playing well and have won 3 straight games themselves. From game 12 out, a team on the road vs a better than .500 team that has won and covered at least 3 straight games is just 36-67 ATS. The Saints have covered 9 straight games, but no team has covered 10 straight in the NFL since the 1992 Chargers. make the play on Dallas.

The Denver Broncos had a come from behind one point win vs the Chargers last week at home. The stats were not as kind as they were out-gained by over 150 yards, but a 2-0 turnover edge was why they won. It has been how the Denver wins have gone all season as 3 of their 4 wins were by 1,1, and 3 points all 4th quarter comebacks. That may be a bit more difficult against the NFL road warriors, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is 10-0-1 SU in their last 11 road games winning by an average margin of 7.5 points per game. Pittsburgh has a strong passing attack and has held opponents to 51 yards per game less than they average on the season. This will be the 3rd straight game for the Broncos facing a team on a 5 game winning streak or longer, and those are not easy games, and the Broncos have spent a lot of energy in those games. Case Keenum has 11 TDs to 10 INTs on the season has not been nearly as effective as last season. He has faced Pittsburgh one time scoring 9 points. Pittsburgh is better on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Tampa Bay has lost offensive continuity as Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick keep trading places. The pair has thrown an ugly 20 INT's on the season, and it is nearly impossible to win that way. Winston will get the nod this week. Winston's last start saw him throw 4 INT's. Tampa Bay has 4 or more turnovers in 4 of their last 5 games. the problems don't get much better on the other side of the ball where the Buc's defense is surrendering 34ppg in their last 7. The Niners have found some offensive life behind QB Nick Mullins. The Niners have totaled a season hugh 57 total points in their last 2 games. Tampa Bay has forced 1 turnover in their last 7 games while they have coughed it up 23 times themselves. Make the play on San Francisco.

It took years for the Jacksonville Jaguars to find their way back to the playoffs, as they did a year ago. They won't be going back this year as they are 3-7. There are at least 2 reasons why. The injury list coming into this game has reached epic proportions as it is at 21. The second is a huge regression on both sides of the ball. Combined they are 12.5 points worse than they were a year ago. They are still perceived as a good team, they are not. Buffalo is perceived to be a bad team, which is somewhat true. The Bills are 3-7 having played the toughest schedule in the NFL. They have faced 2 teams under .500 all season, one of them is Green Bay who probably won't be under .500 when the season ends, the other is the Jets who they beat 41-10, and going for over 450 yards. remember Blake Bortles is 26-49 SU in his NFL career, and carries a losing record as a road favorite. We have a warm weather team heading to Buffalo in a game that will not inspire their interest. Jacksonville has allowed 20+ points in 6 straight games, and has scored 18 or less in 5 straight. Make the play on Buffalo.

Boise St. has been very good for so long it seems that they never lose. They have been so good at home it seems like they never lose on their Smurf Turf. It is mostly true. The Broncos at home from 1999-2010 were 48-23-1 ATS but they have since been 16-32-1 ATS so they have obviously been over-priced. They are 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite of less than -17. The weakness on this team plays into the Utah St. strength which is the passing game, and that will be the difference in this one. Make the play on Utah St.

The Georgia Bulldogs have a date with Alabama in the SEC Championship game. If you are worried about a letdown, they were in the exact same situation last year with a date vs Auburn, and they beat Georgia Tech on the road 38-7. It takes a very good defense as well as one that knows how to defend the Tech's triple-option attack that runs the ball 90% of the time. Georgia faces this team every year, so I looked back to 2010, and in the 2 games played in the season that Georgia had an elite defense last year (16.9ppg allowed), and in 2015 (16.9ppg allowed), they stopped the triple option cold. This year Georgia is allowing 16.8ppg. The two years when Georgia had a great defense Tech scored 7 points each season. Many will point to the fact that Tech averages 36.9ppg but in 2014 they averaged 37.9ppg and scored 7 vs the Bull Dogs elite defense. Georgia is 12-0 SU at home in their last 12 home games winning on average by 40.8 to 12.2. Only 1 opponent would have covered this line, a 14 point win. Make the play on Georgia.

One of the biggest rivalries in college football has a lot at stake. Michigan and Ohio St. are both 10-1 entering this contest. Michigan brings its best team in years to the Horseshoe and the Wolverines are the best defense in this game as well as the best offense because they have the same numbers as Ohio St. from the line of scrimmage vs teams that average out to be better defensively. Defense is no contest. Ohio St. is below average and Michigan is ultra elite, the best in the country. Ohio St. is 28-1 SU in their last 29 home conference games, but will take the field as a home dog for the first time since 2011. This is the 13th time since 1982 they have been a home dog, 8 of those vs Michigan. The 17 point per game scoring margin by Ohio St. is their smallest in the Urban Meyer era. They have had scares vs TCU, Penn St., Nebraska, and Maryland, and lost to Purdue. This is not the caliber of Ohio St. team we have seen in recent years. Michigan last won here in 2000, but they were not supposed to win coming into the game as an average 9.1 under dog. This year is different, make the play on Michigan.

The Washington Huskies appeared to have everything in lace to make a run at the playoffs but they just don't seem to add up to the sum of their parts. These teams appear to be about even but there is something about the confidence and grit of Washington St. They have the winning intangibles. The Cougars just seem to get it done week after week while Washington doesn't seem to be connected and have lost 3 games. I'm riding this one on a situation that has been one of my best at 70-25 ATS that applied to the Cougars here. Make the play on Washington St.

This was supposed to be the big showdown in the Big-12, but with the W. Virginia loss last week some of that luster is gone, as West Virginia no longer has a shot to make the 4 team playoff. The Oklahoma balanced offense is the best by numbers I have ever seen. The Sooners generate 8.8 yards per play to opponents that allow 5.8. W. Virginia has pretty much an average defense, so Oklahoma is going to score big here. While Morgantown is a tough place to win, Oklahoma has done so all 3 times since W. Virginia became a member of the Big-12. The Sooners have averaged 54ppg here. W.Virginia has a strong offense and against a pretty average Oklahoma defense, they should do some scoring here, but keeping up may be a big problem. Oklahoma overall has won and covered 4 straight vs W, Virginia. Tough to try and match this Oklahoma team, they just have so much speed and so many weapons. Make the play on Oklahoma.

Until last season E. Michigan had not had consecutive seasons with at least 5 wins in each. They have done one better as they have 6 wins already this season and are Bowl eligible. Coach Chris Creighton has done a great job here winning in a place that never won before. E. Michigan is an improved team and has won 4 straight games in the conference. Kent St. is just 2-9 on the season. This program had a breakout season in 2012 winning 11 games but in the 6 years since they have just 16 wins. E. Michigan allowed just 7 points to each of their last  opponents. It sets them up in a situation that plays on a team that allowed 14 or less in 2 straight games vs an opponent giving up 37 or more in its last game. That is 60-20 ATS. Make the play on E. Michigan.  

The New Orleans Saints offense is scary good, and Drew Brees has unlimited weapons at his disposal. The Saints have won and covered 8 straight games. They have averaged 48 points per game in their last 3. They are just the 6th team since 1989 to score 40+ in 3 straight and playing at home. The previous 5 have averaged 39, allowing 20 winning by 19. Thanksgiving games where a team has 4 or more wins than their opponent are a perfect 7-0 ATS, winning by 25.2 points per game to an average line of -11.3. The much-maligned Saints defense has allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their last 7, so it has been a bend but doesn't break defense, much like New England. falcons are now 1-11 ATS on the turf after a loss where they led after the 3rd quarter. Thursday favorites have a huge advantage logging a 130-87-8 ATS mark. It is even better for home favorites which are 85-52-5 ATS. (11-3 ATS giving 11 or more). Saints keep rolling. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Ole Miss Rebels are 5-6 but won't be going to a Bowl game because of NCAA sanctions. They will face their Egg Bowl in-state rival Miss St. Ole Miss is a big offensive team but has been shutdown by the big defenses they have faced. They average 36.7ppg but against Alabama, LSU, and Auburn they scored 13ppg. That will be problematic vs a Miss St. team allowing just 12.8ppg and held Alabama to 24. They held the Tide to 304 yards of total offense. It has been a tale of 2 cities for the Miss St. offense. They have faced 5 great defensive teams in KY,FL,AUB,LSU, and ALA and averaged 7.8ppg, but against poor defenses un SF, LA Lad, LA Tech,Arkansas they averaged 54ppg. Ole Miss has a brutal defense. I think it is clear, Miss St. stops potent offenses, and Ole Miss can't score vs a potent defense. While Miss St. crushes bad defenses. Make the play on Miss St.

The Detroit Lions have had a very mixed bag of results on Thanksgiving. One thing is clear when they are the better team playing as the favorite since 1989, they are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS winning by an average score of 31.9 to 16.5 to an average line of -4.8, covering by +10.64 points per game. The results when they are not the better team is ugly. The Lions are 4-14 SU as a home dog on Thanksgiving, and 6-12 ATS. They average losing 28.4 to 18.9 as an average +5 dog. Failing to cover by -4.47 points per contest. Since 2004 it has been even uglier 0-10 SU, and 1-9 ATS losing 34.9 to 16.7 and failing to cover by -12.25 points per game. Detroit has finally found a running game as Kerryon Johnson has rushed for 641 yards at 5.4 yards a carry. problem is he has been ruled out for this game. That means LeGarrette Blount will be getting the carries and his 78 rushes at 2.3 per attempt are ugly. Mitchell Tribitsky has ignited a Bear's offense to just under 30ppg. make the play on Chicago.

This may be the most anticipated Monday Night Football game in many years, as the 9-1 KC Chiefs take in the 9-1 LA Rams. Not going to spend a lot of time on how good these teams are, the elite QB's, and play makers. Everyone is aware of that. The Rams have been a model of consistency as they have scored between 29-39 points in all 10 games. The KC offense has been +53 yards better than the average allowed by the defenses they have faced, LA is +93. KC is allowing 55 yards more on defense than the offenses they have faced, LA is 6 yards better than the offenses they have faced. That is a net of +101 yards for LA, and additionally the Rams run 7 plays a game more than their opponent, the Chiefs 7 yards less. I think Gurley on offense, and Darnold on defense will be the difference makers. History shows us how these games often turn out. Monday Night elite home teams (better than .800) facing an opponent .500 or better to a line of -9 or less, and a total of greater than 37 are 39-7-2 ATS. Make the play on LA.

The Oakland Raiders are a brutal team, and 2 games back they scored 3 points vs SF and last game just 6 vs the Chargers. The contrarian NFL makes them very desirable this week as a team that has scored less than 10 points in 2 straight games are 39-13 ATS including 14-1 ATS as a road dog of +13 or less. Make the play on Oakland.

The Jacksonville Jaguars prior to last season had gone 9 straight years without a winning season. They broke out in a big way last year winning 12 games and it sure looked like this team was ready to contend again. They started the season at 3-1 and then the bottom fell out as the Jags are 0-5 since. The trusty defense has allowed 28.6ppg in the 5 losses while the offense has slumped to 14.4ppg. It has been a total breakdown. Many had the Steelers pegged as a team that could take down New England but a 1-2-1 start was cause for concern. Not anymore as the Steelers are 5-0 SU and ATS since the ugly start. Jacksonville may bring a little extra here as their season is on the line, but don't think it will be enough against a red-hot Pittsburgh team. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

The Utah St. Aggies joined the FBS back in 1990. They struggled to be competitive and until 2012 the team never won more than 7 games. This program has elevated its level of play since then and is 1 win away from their 3rd season of 10 or more wins in the last 7 years. The Aggies are 9-1 with the only loss coming at the hands of Michigan St. in their opener a game that was tied with 2 minutes remaining. Since that game, the Aggies have rattled off 9 straight wins, by an average margin of 53.6-20.1. They have been better lately averaging 9.1 yards per play in their last 3 as QB Jordan Love continues to improve. Love has thrown for 2,676 yards 24 TDs and just 4 INT`s on the season. The offense can run the ball as well as Thompson and Bright have carried the ball 215 times for 1,530 yards at 7.1 yards a carry. The defense and special teams have been terrific, as they have combined to average 6.4ppg by themselves. Colorado St. is falling apart, and with QB Collin Hill (recovering from an ACL tear), is back at QB replacing Washinton transferJ.K. Carta-Samuels. Samuels wasn`t great but reasonably effective while Collins is trying to work his way back after surgery and the numbers are worse than Samuels as he has completed a lesser percentage 3 TD`s to 4 INT`s, and his yards per attempt is very poor. Coach Bobo said Collins is now #1 on the depth chart. A home team that has allowed225 rushing yards to at least their last 2 opponents, facing a team that generated 225 rushing yards in at least their last 2 games os 4-28-1 ATS. I also have situations of 7-38 ATS and 8-34 ATS against Colorado St. UtahSt. applies to a 96-47 ATS situation as well. Better than .500 road favorites that have accrued an ATS margin of 50 or more points in their last 7 games, and facing a sub-.500 team are 56-30 ATS in the last 86 occurrences. Make the play on Utah St.

The Northwestern Wildcats for the first time ever clinched the Big-10 Western Conference Title and will play in the Championship game. They are likely to be flat and have nothing to play for in this game. Minnesota, on the other hand, is 5-5 and needs a win in one of its last 2 games to become Bowl eligible. Their finale is on the road, so this is a huge spot. The Golden Gophers are the youngest team in the nation with over half its member's freshman so this would be quite an accomplishment. Minnesota fired its defensive coordinator prior to last week and they went out under new direction and held Purdue to 233 total yards and 10 points. The defense has been a liability all season but appears to take on new life with a new DC. The Minnesota offense that generated 25.5ppg with Zack Annexstad at QB, has come to life after he was replaced by Tanner Morgan. Morgan is 54-91 throwing for 10.4 yards per attempt, with 6 TDs and just 4 INT's. Ammexstad was throwing for 6.8 yards per attempt with 9 TDs and 7 INTs. The offense is now scoring 34.5ppg with Morgan under center. The Minnesota offense has generated 415 yards or more in 4 straight games, considerably better than before and now with a defense that appears to be put in a position to succeed, they are very much under the radar. Northwestern has had to fight through a lot of tough games and this is a great spot to see them in a "breather alert" situation. Make the play on Minnesota.

Middle Tennessee QB Brent Stockstill (coaches son), is a 6th year senior and has passed for 11,238 yards, 98 TDs to 30 INTs. he has a ton of experience and has seen and endured a lot. M. Tennessee St. is 7-3 on the season, but facing an SEC team that is 7-3 is completely different. Since the start of last season MTSU has faced Vanderbilt twice, and Georgia. The numbers tell the story. MTSU has generated 810 total yards on 197 plays at 4.11 yards per play. Stockstill has thrown for 4.89 yards per attempt. Needless to say, those numbers would rank at or near the bottom of the entire NCAA FBS. meanwhile, they were out-scored 112-20, and most of the points came late when they were blown out. Kentucky has a defense that is as good as any MTSU has ever faced, and after 2 losses where they played poorly, they will bring the heat in this one. SEC teams that allow less than 17ppg and facing a C-USA opponent allow 11.7ppg. If that opponent allows 28 or more points per game, the final score has averaged 41.3-10.4. I smell a major blowout here. Make the play on Kentucky.

It has to be tough play calling for the Green Bay Packers. You have a future Hall of Fame QB in Aaron Rogers but this season they have one of the best ground games in the NFL. Despite that the Packers have run the ball 30+ times or more in just 1 game, against Buffalo who they beat 22-0. The Packers have played a murderous schedule, and are in the midst of 4 games on the road in 5 weeks. This is a tough scheduling spot for them as they have played 8 straight games in a different city and this one comes on short rest. The Packers are a great road team on grass where they are 76-47-2 ATS but on artificial surface they are a woeful 50-72-1 ATS. Thursday Night favorites own a 129-87-8 ATS mark with a big advantage. If they are home favorites it goes to 84-52-5 ATS. Seattle is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Sunday Night Football games, as well as 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday Night games. They seem to thrive in the bright lights. NFL Thursday non-division conference games shows the home favorite at 14-1 ATS. Make the play on Seattle.

The New Orleans Saints won a big game at home last week vs the previously unbeaten LA Rams. The Saints have moved to 7-1 and have to be considered a serious Super Bowl contender. The Saints added to their already formidable weapons on offense picking up Dez Bryant. While the Saints are adding the Bengals are without their top weapon in A.J. Green. Drew Brees may be 39 but he is putting up the best numbers of his career with a passer rating of 120.6 with 18 TDs and just 1 INT. The explosive offense is averaging 35ppg. Andy Dalton still makes a lot of mistakes and has been picked off 8 times already on the season. Bengals are below average from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and until someone cools off Drew Brees no one is beating the Saints. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Cleveland Browns have tried just about everything, even a new coach but the wins have been very scarce. The 2-6-1 record this season is better bit they are still a long way from playing winning football. The Atlanta Falcons can score as Matt Ryan continues to have a big season, the big question mark for this team has been can they stop their opponent? The answer seems to have been found as they have held each of their last 3 opponents to fewer points than the previous opponent, none bigger than 14 allowed to Washington on the road a week ago. Atlanta has rallied back from an awful start to move to 4-4 and a win in Cleveland moves this team back into the playoff picture. Cleveland has allowed 134 points in the last 4 weeks are heading in the opposite direction. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Colts were so much better when Andrew Luck was a healthy QB and all the time he has missed has created the illusion of Indianapolis being a much worse team than they really are. It took some time, but Luck is healthy, up to game speed and is quietly having a career year with 23 TD passes already. Jacksonville has the perception of a top team off of last year, but they are so much worse averaging just 16.8ppg. A lot of that falls in the lap of Blake Bortles who has just 10 TD passes to 8 INTs. (8-27 SU on the road). The offense is nearly 10 points worse than a year ago while the defense has also regressed allowing 4 more points a game. Not surprised Indy is favored here, just surprised it is not by more. Make the play on Indianapolis. 

The Nevada Wolf Pack enters there game vs 3-6 Colorado St. at 5-4 seeking Bowl Eligibility. The last 20 home favorites seeking bowl eligibility vs a team with 4 wins or less is 20-0 SU and 14-6 ATS. Nevada has played a much tougher schedule, bit the defense has been vastly improved. They allowed 46.3ppg in their first 3 but 23.6ppg since. Colorado St. Has allowed opponents to score more than their season average in 8 of 9 games, and in 6 of those games, the opponent out-scored their season average by +11.1ppg or more. That does not bode well here on the road. Colorado St. has suffered a cluster of injuries on their offensive line. The Nevada air raid offense hasn't been special bit the CSU pass defense is brutal, and no player on the roster has more than 2.5 sacks. Special teams has been a disaster as well for CSU allowing 4 TDs. ESPN’s advanced metrics rank the Rams’ offense 103rd out of 130 FBS teams, their defense 119th and their special teams 129th. That adds up to an overall rank of 123, which leaves just seven worse teams in the nation. Make the play on Nevada.

This is becoming like a broken record. Iowa St. has played the toughest schedule in the country. They are very much under the radar, because they are just 5-3. A lot has changed in the last 4 games. QB Zeb Noland has left the team, as he sees the light. Freshman Brock Purdy is a high level QB, and has infused a mediocre offense into a strong one. Behind Noland Iowa St. was generating 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Since Purdy took over that has jumped to an elite 11.1, with 11 TD's to just 2 INT's. The running game that is averaging 3.6 yards an attempt has thrived as well, and has jumped to 4.4, and David Montgomery has 712 yards at 4.5 yards a carry. WR Hakeem Butler at 6'6" 225 has become elite with a competent QB to get him the ball. Butler now has 33 grabs for 791 yards and 8 TD's. He has 17 for 480 with Purdy at QB for 28.2 yards per catch. Uowa St. started football in 1892 and has never won 10 games, and this team is on a mission to get to the B-12 Championship game and win it. The Iowa St. defense is elite allowing 4.7 yards per play, and Baylor has struggled to stop good offenses, and struggled to score against good defenses, and in this game they will face both. Iowa St. offense has season numbers of 3.6 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per attempt, but behind Purdy it is 4.4 a carry and 10.9 per pass attempt. This team plays hard on every down, and finally has the depth in their defensive front to play strong for 4 quarters. Baylor fits a situation that is 15-62 ATS here, so technical support is big for ISU as well. Make the play on Iowa St.

The Missouri Tigers at 5-4 are under the radar, and look to secure Bowl eligibility at home vs Vanderbilt. A lot of bettors will look to the bright spot on the Vanderbilt season a 22-17 loss at Notre Dame. This was before Ian Book took over the Irish offense, because Wimbish was a liability in the passing game. The Missouri offense is balanced and is directed by a future NFL QB in Drew Lock. Lock has destroyed average defenses all season, as Missouri averaged just 17.7ppg vs Georgia, Alabama, and Kentucky, but 45ppg vs everyone else. Lock is even better as Emmanual Hall is healthy once again, as he averages 23 yards per catch and stretches the field and opens things up for others. Missouri can also run the ball, and has an above average defense. The Vandy defense grades out above average, however against very good offenses in SC, Georgia, and Florida they gave up 5.6 yards per rush, and 10 yards per pass attempt, way below average. There is some hidden value here. Make the play on Missouri.

It has been a tough year for 4-5 Wake Forest, a team that started the season 2-0, but their only wins since have come against a couple really bad teams in Rice and Louisville. The 5 losses have come by a total of 134 points. One of the reasons has been the injury bug. Wake Forest has lost 12 scholarship players for the season, and a total of 38 scholarship players have missed at least 1 game. The most recent injury will be the costliest as QB Sam Hartman has been lost for the season. Hartman is a freshman, and while his numbers aren't great they were more than adequate as he was growing into the position. The offense would normally turn to Kendall Hinton, but he us battling a pair of injuries himself, and may not even play, as they have used him on special teams and wide receiver. That likely leaves Jamie Newman who has completed just 46.5% of his 15 passes on the season with an INT and just 5 yards per attempt. Wake will likely turn to the running game but NC State is elite against the run allowing 3.1 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams that averages 4.5. The Wake secondary is below average and allows 64% completions and NC State QB Ryan Finley leads an elite passing attack generating close to 9 yards an attempt. Wake in their 5 losses have allowed:

BC       41

ND       56

CLEM     63

FLST     38

LOU      35

SYR      41

A new inexperienced QB, and an average running game vs an elite run defense, as well as a mediocre pass defense, against an elite passing attack has a strong odor of blowout on it. make the play on NC State.

The LA Tams were tested in their last game at home vs Green Bay. The Packers best game of the year went against the Rams worst game of the year, and LA managed to survive and move to 8-0 on the season. They now move to a tough team and venue to take on the 5-1 New Orleans Saints. This is a tough match up for the Saints weak back 7. The Saints allow 8.3 yards per attempt vs a schedule of teams that generate 7.1. The Rams have the best passing attack in the league as they generate an amazing 9.1 yards per attempt. It will be hard for Drew Brees to match scores here for 4 quarters. Both offenses are scoring 33ppg but the Rams defense allows a TC less, and that will be tough to overcome. Make the play on LA. 

The LA Chargers have seen so much go wrong over the last 3 years. They lost 20 one-possession games, suffered through countless injuries, and failed to make the playoffs a year ago at 9-7. Signs of that reversing are showing up in 2018 as the Chargers are 5-2 on the season. The 2 losses are to a pair of teams that have combined to lose just 1 game. They average beating the rest of the teams on their schedule by over 10 points a game. The Chargers have one of the top offenses in the league generating 7.1 yards a play vs a schedule of opponents allowing 6.0. The Phil Rivers passing attack is generating 8.8 yards an attempt vs opponents allowing 7.1. Seattle grades out overall as an average team. Phil Rivers is 22-12 ATS in his last 34 as a road dog. Seattle once dominated at home but just 2-5 here in their last 7. Make the play on LA.

The Atlanta Falcons have a lot of skill players on offense but have become a one-dimensional team. They are an elite passing team that can't run the ball. Washington has not allowed more than 104 rushing yards in any game this season so it does not appear that will be fixed in this game. Washington's 5-2 record is above their stats, as they grade out as an average team. The injury report is going to catch up with them now listing 15 players, 7 added after last week. This is what hurt them last year it may again this year. A team that is covering .333 or less games vs one that covers .670 or better has always been a good bet n the contrarian NFL, and Atlanta is the qualifier this week. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are in control of their own destiny, but that hasn't meant much over the last 4 years. Notre Dame has entered November ranked in the top 5 in 3 of the last 4 years, and in the 4 years they have failed to finish in the top 10 in any of them. Notre Dame has perhaps the biggest fan base in the country and when they reach a lofty status the offs makers push the lines. The Irish are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 November games. Northwestern has won the last 2 meetings despite being a dog of -17 and -28. This stat will surprise most that read this. Northwestern has more wins over the last 3 years coming into this season than Notre Dame. Northwestern was a team that once upon a time had 4 winning seasons in 25 years. The Wildcats own wins over Michigan St. twice, Iowa, and Wisconsin since the start of last season, and lost to Michigan by just 3. Getting 10 points when you allow 23.6 is huge. Vandy, Pittsburgh, and Ball St. would have covered this number vs Notre Dame (3 ND wins). Northwestern has a way to get up for these games. Make the play on Northwestern.

Florida lost for the 2nd time this season last week. They played Georgia on a neutral field and lost 36-17. That certainly looks pretty bad, but it was very misleading. Florida actually led 14-13 in the 3rd quarter but 3 turnovers took them out of the game. All of Georgia's TD's came on 3rd down. Missouri is just not the same team as they were a year ago, especially offensively. Last week they were forced into 9 straight 3 and outs vs Kentucky. WR Emanuel Hall has been out most of the year, and he has been the only downfield threat for Missouri. Drew Locke has seen his passing yards per attempt drop way off. Part of that reason is the change to Derek Dooley who is now the Missouri offensive coordinator. Dooley personally flushed the Tennessee program down the toilet and this is his first ever stint at OC. Here are Lock's numbers vs good defenses:

The Kansas Jayhawks broke a 14 game conference losing streak against sputtering TCU. The results were very misleading as TCU out-gained Kansas 504-307. Kansas also won the turnover battle finishing at +2, and TCU saw a drive stall at the Kansas 1 yard line, as well as fumbling at the Kansas 7. Kansas was completely outplayed but got all the breaks and still ended up just a 1 point winner at home. Iowa St. is a completely different team with a healthy Montgomery at RB and with freshman QB Brock Purdy. The Cyclones passing game behind Zeb Noland was generating just 6.6 yards per attempt and since Brock Purdy took over he has passed for 11.0 yards an attempt.  Additionally, the Iowa St. defense us one of the best in the land allowing just 4.9 yards per play and the Cyclones have played the toughest schedule in the country. This is easily a top #10 team now, but at 4-3 they are supplying some great hidden value. Make the play on Iowa St. 

This will be the third meeting between these teams since the start of last season all in Minnesota. The Vikings stole the playoff game with a miracle 61 yard TD completion with time running out. The Saints have quietly gone 15-4 in their last 19 regular season games. I think the Saints have a couple of scores to settle in this one and right now Drew Brees is playing at an ultra-high level, and the Minnesota injury report has now reached 16 players. The Saints are lighting the scoreboard for 34ppg and Brees passer rating is at 121.6. He has thrown for 13 TDs and 0 INT`s on the season. The only comparable offense Minnesota has faced is the LA Rams and they were exposed for 38 points and 556 total yards. Make the play on New Orleans.  

There isn't a whole lot at stake in this one other than pride as the loser will fall to 1-7 on the season. The Arizona offense has been poor all season and Josh Rosen is injured, but looks like he will play. The Cards beat the Niners for their only win on the season, but it took a 5 turnover surplus yo win by 10 points and they were out-gained by 227 yards. Arizona has yet to gain as much as 270 yards in a game, and San Francisco does have a good defense and solid running game. Cards averaging just over 10ppg outside the Niner game where they had 5 gifts. Both QB's have ugly numbers, but Beathard's are somewhat better. Make the play on San Fransisco.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are always a dangerous team. They head to Iowa St. with a 5-2 record on the season. It will come down to a pair of true freshman QB's with Tech's Alan Bowman against the Cyclones Brock Purdy. Bowman has already thrown for 2,088 yards on the season with 14 TDs and 4 INTs. Purdy has played just 2 games but has passed at 11.9 yards per attempt and has a dead Cyclone offense that averaged 17.5ppg prior to hum playing to one that is averaging 37ppg with him. he is a duel threat contributing 122 yards on the ground on 31 carries. The Texas Tech defense is better than it has been but not nearly on the level with Iowa St. The Cyclones rank among the best stop units in the country, and allow just 4.9 yards a play to teams that average 6.4. RB Montgomery is healthy again and has benefited from Purdy at QB. Overall Iowa St. is now the best 3-3 team in the country and are on an extra week of rest. Iowa St. has held Tech to 23 points total the last 2 years and just 321 yards a game, while generating over 500 yards a game themselves. Make the play on Iowa St. 

The best thing for the New York Giants right now is to get out of New York. The media is always harsh in the Big Apple. The good news for New York is they are coming off a Thursday game, have had extra time to prepare, and the Falcons will arguably be the worst team on their schedule to this point. The Falcons offense is really banged up and will be handicapped by players out or injured. The Giants own a 10-0 ATS mark since 1995 coming off a Thursday game, and after having lost 3 straight this team is in need of a win. Since their explosive Super Bowl season in 2016, the Falcons have not been the same and own just 5 wins by more than 7 points. Make the play on New York.

A big inter-conference meeting between the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens will take place this Sunday in Baltimore. It will be the high octane New Orleans offense averaging 36ppg against the Ravens defense that is allowing just 12.8ppg. Drew Brees has been about perfect all season throwing for 11 TDs and 0 INT's with a passer rating of 122.3. Brees has completed nearly 80% of his throws at a chunky 8.7 yards per attempt. He also has the Saints at 20-12 ATS as a dog over the last 5 years. he is also 15-9 ATS vs elite pass defenses (4.3-6.3 yards an attempt) over the same period scoring 27.3ppg. Joe Flacco is a tick better this year than over the past 5, but he has never duplicated his Super Bowl winning season. Brees has weapons all over the field and has completed passes of 23 yards or more to 9 different receivers already. Saints in this one.

The NY Jets have certainly both suffered and benefited from their rookie QB Sam Darnold. he has been great in wins but awful in losses. It may be the Jets defense that has fans worried a lot more as they have surrendered 1,022 yards in the last 3 games in the air. The Vikings are 3-2-1 and have lost in LA to the unbeaten Rams, and lost a stinker at home vs Buffalo. Darnold is carrying a rather low 83.7 passer rating into this contest, and has been picked off 7 times. Cousins has been better than his career average passer rating this season at 102.1 and has 12 TDs to just 3 INT's and connecting on 72.1% of his throws. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs have already caught just shy of 100 passes with 1150 yards and 7 TDs are more than the Jets can handle. Make the play on Minnesota. 

The Tennessee Titans have had a ridiculous stretch of games. Over the last 4 weeks they have taken on Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Baltimore, and now have to head across the country to take on The LA Chargers. Last week showed just how bad the offense is as they got off only 29 plays the entire game, and gained just 105 yards. They have still failed to score more than 2 TDs in any of their 6 games. The Chargers have put up 23 points or more in every game and Phil Rivers is having a big season with 15 TDs to just 3 INTs and a 115.1 passer rating. Marcus Mariota has really struggled this season, as he seems to be limited in options and the running game has disappeared over the last with just 225 yards. Chargers 2 losses came against the unbeaten Rams and KC who just lost for the first time last week. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

The NCAAF playoffs look a bit clearer right now after 4 top teams bit the bullet last week. Things have a way of changing quickly however as we saw last week. Ohio St. has moved up to the #2 ranked team in the country, and this week they will head to W. Lafayette, Ind. to take on Purdue. Last year Purdue coach Brian Brohm too over a dead Purdue program that had 10 wins the previous 4 years, and immediately got them into a Bowl game against Arizona that they won. Brohm is an offensive genius and his teams have averaged 39.2ppg in his coaching career. he had returning QB Elijah Sindelar returning, and was hopeful things could get turned up a notch, but Sindelar struggled in 2 losses to start the season, where they averaged just 23ppg. David Blough who injured his leg last November and the offense took off. Blough has thrown 10 TD passes to 2 INT's, at 9.8 yards per attempt in his starts and the Boilermaker offense is averaging 38ppg, and is now a top 10 offense. Ohio St. is 7-0, and the line is over-compensating for their successful coach, and #2 ranking. The Buckeyes to this point of the season are not on the level defensively as all other Urban Meyer Ohio St. teams as they have been basically average. The running game is not as potent, but where they shine is in the air with Haskins at QB, but Purdue has been just as good with Blough. These teams are a lot closer than they look with Blough now at QB for Purdue, which displays hidden value. Urban Meyer coached teams are hard to bet against as they are 122-86-4 ATS. There is a weakness however as they are 5-18 ATS as a conference road favorite from -11.5 to -23, failing to cover by -6.28 points per game. Purdue is also in a momentum situation that is 100-45 ATS, one of my most predictive situations. Make the play on Purdue. 

Scott Satterfield may be a name not readily recognized by most. he took over the Appalachian St. program the year before they joined the FBS and has quickly gotten traction having gone 34-10 in the last 3+ years. The Mountaineers are an elite team on any level, and their 4-1 record includes their opening game overtime loss at Penn St. Since that game they are 4-0 having out-scored those 4 opponents by 33ppg. A backdoor cover is not likely here as this is the 7th rated defense in the country, and they have not been scored upon in the 2nd half in those 4 wins. Offensively, this team is completely balanced and have the 11th ranked offense in the FBS. Lafayette has a good offense but against top defenses, they have really struggled. Last year the Mountaineers won 63-14. Special teams provide for another huge edge for App. St. as they have a kick return for a TD and a pair of punt returns for 62 and 59 yards, while they average 43.7 yards per punt. Mountaineers run out of the triple option at 6.49 yards per carry and have allowed just 6 sacks. UL Lafayette has a very poor defense and App St. should put up over 50 ere, and their defense allows just 288 yards a contest and 30.9% on 3rd down. They will have the advantage on every play on the field on both sides of the ball as well as special teams and their depth running the ball will keep points coming in the 4th quarter. A big number to take down for sure, but they are capable of easily beating it. Lafayette has averaged just 9.2ppg in the 4 meetings. Make the play on Appalachian St. 

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and the Arkansas Razorbacks both enter this contest with just a single win. There are not many areas that either team shines in but what edges there is belong to Arkansas. Tulsa has been very strong against the pass and is very long and experienced. They have 5 DB's that average 6'2". Tulsa plays out of a 3-3-5 defense and that has made them vulnerable to the running game. Arkansas is very good at running the ball, and they will have success here. Arkansas does not pass well so the Tulsa strength is not as much of a factor here. Offensively, Tulsa is a running team and passes poorly. Seth Boomer completes an ugly 36.5% of his passes, and the weak part of the Arkansas defense is against the pass, and the Tulsa passing attack is just not strong enough to exploit it. Tulsa has run 310 times and attempted just 170 passes so there is little doubt what they will try to do here. Arkansas is above average vs the run so the Hogs have the advantage on both sides of the ball. Arkansas Coach Chad Morris made his entry in the FBS as OC of Tulsa so you know he wants this one badly. Arkansas is 35-0 SU at home in out-of-conference games vs a team that is not unbeaten and is 15-0 SU here since 1980 vs Tulsa. Both are coming off games where they blew 4th quarter leads, and Tulsa lost at home to S. Florida by a single point with a FG with; 22 seconds remaining. A team that is off a 1 point home dog loss and is now a road dog of more than 3.5 points, has a winning percentage of less than.333 and not facing a team greater than.750 is 3-28 ATS. Make the play on Arkansas.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had to go to Kansas City last week and face the red-hot Patrick Mahomes. The Jags went for over 500 yards, but still lost by 18 points, allowing a season's high 30. The issue was 5 turnovers, following a game they won the prior week vs the Jets despite 3 turnovers. They have to get that cleaned up, but the good news is a team that has committed 8 turnovers in their last 2 games are 24-14-1 ATS in their next game. The Dallas offense is averaging 16.6ppg, and Dak Prescott is struggling owning an 81.4 passer rating on the season. Jags have lost 2 in a row just 1 time since the start of last season, and have come back big after a loss out-scoring their opponent by 26-8. Make the play on Jacksonville.

The LA Chargers are 3-2,but their 2 losses have come against the only 2 unbeaten teams in the league, Kansas City and the LA Rams. The Chargers offense led by Phil Rivers has scored at least 23 points in all 5 games. The Browns come in at 2-2-1 on the season with all 5 games being played to within 4 points either way. One concern here is they have turned their opponent over 15 times 5 games, yet they are still only 2-2-1, which shows them as an over-rated team, as the turnover rate is not sustainable. Baker Mayfield is getting more credit than he deserves with just an 81.4 passer rating. Meanwhile Phil Rivers has a passer rating of 116.1 has 13 TDs to just 2 INT's. This game also fits a situation that is 77-32 ATS, and the play is on San Diego.

One of the most improved teams this year in the NFL has been the 3-1 Chicago Bears. The Bears biggest splash came from the signing of Khalil Mack. Mack was a holdout traded to the bears and it is no coincidence that as his snap count goes up the bears points allowed goes down. The Beats have decreased their points allowed every week. Mack is a game changer that has 5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, a recovery and an interception for a TD. The other difference is the maturation of Mitchell Trubitsky. Trubitsky had a 77.5 passer rating last year, with 7 TDs and 7 INT's, and 101.6 this year, with 8 TDs and 3 INTs. The Bears offense has gone from 16.9ppg to 27.8ppg, and without the collapse in week 1 vs Green Bay would be 4-0. Miami started 3-0 but has lost 3 straight, and after taking a 17-0 lead last week vs the Bengals they gave up 27 unanswered points for their 2nd straight loss. The last 24 teams to blow a 17 point or more lead and lose by 7 or more are 6-18 ATS. Ryan Tannehill has a 3.9% INT rate and has thrown 5 already, and Mack is going to be in his head. The Bears fit a situation involving certain teams off a bye, as road favorites, which is 44-12 ATS. Make the play on Chicago.

The W. Virginia Mountaineers come rolling into Iowa St. unblemished at 5-0, and a #6 ranking. They have yet to be tested, but do have a gauntlet of games ahead. Remaining are games at Texas and Oklahoma St., as well as home dates with TCU and Oklahoma. All in consecutive weeks. This one may look like a tune-up, but Iowa St. is a lot better than their 2-3 record which includes losses to Iowa, Oklahoma, and TCU, and a big road win at Oklahoma St. Matt Campbell came over from Toledo where he was 35-15, and has built the Iowa St. program quickly. The Cyclones won 8 games a year ago for the first time since 2000, and beat Oklahoma on the road, TCU at home, and Memphis on their Bowl game. The Cyclones are 2-3 but have played a schedule that includes Iowa, TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. They beat Oklahoma Sy. on the road. Iows St. has not lost to anyone the last 2 years by more than 10 points. They beat Oklahoma a year ago on the road, and TCU at home, a very dangerous and under the radar team. While the schedule thus far has been against very tough opponents, the Cyclones have held 3 opponents to season low yards, and the other 2 to season 2nd lowest yards. Last week, due to injuries freshman QB Brock Purdy was electric. He went 18-23 good for 4 TD's and 318 yards at an amazing 13.8 yards an attempt. he also ran 19 times for 84 yards, on 19 carries and a TD. W. Virginia QB Will Grier is special, and will likely be playing on Sunday next year. W. Virginia however remains unchallenged, as they have played a much below average schedule. Iowa St. may be 2-3, but they are much better than the record, and with Purdy being named QB, the offense has been upgraded significantly. Make the play on Iowa St.

Las Cruces, N.Mexico was a happy place last season, as N. Mexico St. ended a Bowl drought that began back in 1960. Lots of optimism for this season went south quickly when the Aggies opened the season at 0-4. Coach Doug Martin returned 9 offensive players, but needed a QB and went with junior Matt Romero. Romero was pretty awful completing just 55% at 4.6 yards per attempt. He had 3 TD`s and 6 INT`s. Martin decided it was time for a change, and inserted freshman Josh Adkins, and the offense has exploded. Adkins is completing 61.3% at 7.9 yards an attempt, with 6 TDs and 2 INTs. He is not a great runner, but netter than Romero who could not run at all. It has brought life back to the running game as well as Christian Gibson after gaining 67 yards in 3 games with Romero at QB, has gained 230 yards on 23 carries since Adkins took over, 10ypc. The Aggie offense has gone from 10ppg to 38ppg in their last 2. It also helps a rather poor defense to get some rest and not on the field most of the game. Lots of hidden value here. Lafayette is a horrible defensive team, and the Aggies now have something to exploit that with. Aggies should be in this one off two inspiring wins all the way, and could surprise. Make the play on N. Mexico St.

The Chris Ash watch is on at Rutgers. He opened his weekly press conference defending his team, and spoke of a bright future...ut oh. His Rutgers team is brutally bad, especially on the road, where they have lost their last 5 games by a combined score of 218-37, and he is 1-11 SU on the road, out-scored by 4 TD's a contest. Maryland will do what they do best, pound the rock with Anthony McFarland (36-325 9.0), Ty Johnson (45-303  6.7), and Tayon Fleet Davis (41-211 5.1). Maryland's last opponent with a horrific run defense, Nowling Green, led to 444 rushing yards, and Rutgers has allowed 200+ on the ground in every game. The Scarlet Knights QB's have thrown 3 TD passes to 12 INT's, and complete just over 50%, and they don't run the ball well at all. They have averaged 12.8ppg in their 5 contests vs P5 teams, and they are on their 9th offensive coordinator in 9 years. Maryland averages 5.8 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.4, so expect big rushing yards here. Maryland has out-scored teams 66-22 in the 4th quarter, because they can continue to run and score, while Rutgers has been out-scored in the 4th by more than double, so a back door cover is not likely here. Maryland has produced 13 double-digit scoring quarters in their 5 games, Rutgers just 1. (10 points, barely got there). I expect a colossal blowout here, make the play on Maryland.

There is an old saying,"Hunted is he who wears the crown." It certainly applies to the reigning Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles. the hunting grounds however are a lot more fertile on the road, than they are in Philly. The Eagles have been on a roll at home, where their defense is far and away the best in the NFL. They have seen a pair of high caliber QB's in their first 2 home games on the season in Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck, and limited them to 366 passing yards combined on 84 attempts at a woeful 4.36 yards per attempt. That rings ominous for a Minnesota team that has been completely one-dimensional this season. The Vikings are throwing the ball nearly 80% of the time in their last 3 games, and have had no success on the ground. Philly has dominated defensively at home where they are 11-1 SU in their last 12, allowing a stingy 12.7ppg. The numbers are even scarier in their last 7 here, limiting opponents to 9.1ppg. Carson Wentz is 11-4 ATS at home putting up 28.3ppg. Minnesota defense is not even close to where it was a year ago, and Philly off a loss at home, will be lethal. Make the play on Philadelphia. 

The Cleveland Browns are certainly a much better team than they have been in several years. They are very young, and are having a lot of difficulty closing out games, despite winning heavily in the turnover battle. The Browns have forced 13 opponent turnovers in 4 games, but despite getting 3.25 turnovers a contest the Browns are 1-2-1 on the season. Only 1 time in the last 30 years of NFL action has a team forced 12 or more turnovers in their first 4 games, and come away with just 1 win. That was all the way back to 1990. Baker Mayfield has proven to be forced into youthful mistakes, and the Baltimore pass defense is elite allowing 5 yards per attempt to teams that average 6.5. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco after a few bad seasons appears to have regained his confidence and is playing very well, 8 TD's just 2 INT's. Baltimore defense allowing just 16ppg, and the offense has gone for 3+ in all 4 games. Cleveland to young for this defense, and I think the turnovers work against them here. Make the play on Baltimore.

The Buffalo Bills at 1-3 know a loss here pretty much ends their season. Last week they were a complete no-show in Green Bay losing a 22-0 shutout. It was generally expected the Bills would falter after a hard to believe thumping they put on Minnesota, on the road 27-6. This will be Buffalo's only home game in a stretch from September 16th through October 29th, so there will be a charged up atmosphere here. Tennessee has been good enough, and lucky enough to win 3 straight games by 3 points as am underdog in all of them. They came out 3-1, but so easily could be 0-4 right now. They became the 4th team in the last 30 years to win 3 straight by exactly 3 points, for the record the other 3 all lost SU/ATS. Moreover the last 6 teams to win 3 straight by 3 or less, are 0-6 SU/ATS. It is simply tough to maintain that level of intensity in this league. Last week they beat the reigning Super Bowl Champion and a team doing so since 1992 has gone 13-41 SU and 16-38 ATS if on the road next game. The last 18 teams to get shutout have gone 14-3-1 ATS in their next game, and on average they were a +3.5 point dog (5-0-1 ATS as a home dog). make the play on Buffalo.

The Kentucky Wildcats are off to their best start in years at 5-0, and another win will give them their best start since 1950. The Cats have been big on both sides of the ball. Texas AM is not an easy place to play, and the Aggies may be 3-2, but the 2 losses were vs Clemson and Alabama. Those two games may offer a hint of what to expect here. AM lost to Clemson by just 2 points and gashed a powerhouse defense for over 500 yards. It was just the 6th time in regular season games that Clemson gave up 500 yards since the start of the 2012 season. The Aggies also hung up just shy of 400 yards at Alabama, and scored 23 points. Only 4 teams have come to Alabama and scored more than 23 points since November 11, 2007, covering 74 home games. The Kentucky defense is very good, but not as good as those 2 defenses, and if Mond and Co. could generate that type of yardage and points vs Clemson and Alabama they are sure capable of doing damage against Kentucky. The biggest edge may be the AM run defense which allows just 3.1 yards a carry, should be able to slow down Snell enough to force Kentucky into the air. Kentucky QB Terry Wilson has just 2 TDs and 5 INTs on the season, so if Texas AM can control the Wildcats ground game, they are going to be in good position to get a big win. This is the 3rd team AM has played against a team that is now 5-0, that experience, and offensive success will propel them at home. Make the play on Texas A%M.

The Illinois Ilini have not won a conference game in their last 13 tries, as they are 0-13. Ironically, they take on Rutgers, who is the last team they beat 24-7, also on the road. Rutgers has had no picnic either as they are 1-12 SU in their last 13 conference home games. The story line here is Illinois QB AG Bush has been upgraded to probable. Bush has played in just 1+ games as he injured a hamstring, and has been out since. Illinois is coming off a bye, which has helped this team with injuries, but also allows a QB to return that has generated 7.4 yards an attempt, and has rushed for 142 yards on just 26 carries, at 5.9 yards a tote. His replacement, M.J. Rivers threw for just 5.8 yards an attempt, and rushed for just 48 yards on 30 carries for 1.6 yards per carry. I see some hidden line value here, as the upgrade at QB helps both the running and the passing game. Rutgers has been brutal against the run all season. and are the worst passing team in the FBS generating 50% completions at 4.6 yards per attempt. Illinois is solidly the better team, should see improvement to the offense, against a very poor team all around. Make the play on Illinois.

Thursday Night Football is a difficult spot for a road team. It may be even tougher for the Colts tonight as their best offensive weapon, WR TY Hilton is out. The Colts presently have an NFL high 27 players on the injury report, and on a short week it is going to be tough. Home favorites have had a decided advantage to begin with as they are 123-87-8 ATS, and when it is considered an uncompetitive game, where they are a -6.5 point favorite or more, that jumps to 51-28-2 ATS, and if the total is greater than 39 it goes to 45-21-2 ATS. Moreover, the Colts are off an overtime game, and a team playing on Thursday off OT is just 6-25 ATS. New England gets Edelman back, Gronkowski is probable, and Gordon is now in full Patriot stride. Make the play on New England.

The NY Giants offense still looks rather ordinary, despite Barkley, Beckham, and Shepherd all healthy and in the mix. It seems the philosophy has changed some, as Eli Manning seems to get in trouble throwing mid to long range passes. he is completing a high percentage, but just 3 TD passes, none to Beckham. They are going to need to step things up vs New Orleans. Drew Brees seems to get better with age, and is completing over 80% of his passes at 8.4 yards per attempt, with 8 TDs and 0 INT's. While Manning's longest completion is just 37 yards, Brees has connected with 5 different receivers for 25 yards or more. Michael Thomas has 38 grabs through 3 games, which would project to an insane 200+ in 16 games, and with Alvin Kamara with 30 grabs, the Saints passing game has been flawless. Manning has had a 72.4 passer rating as a home dog in his last 5 years. Brees over his last 6 starts vs the Giants is 5-1 ATS and has a 114 passer rating, producing a sizzling 37.1ppg. Make the play on New Orleans.

Last week we saw these teams pressing at QB, with Blaine Gabbert taking hit, and in concussion protocol, forced the Titans to bring in an injured Marcus Mariota, who said he can't feel the ball in his hand. the Titans have played in mostly poor weather conditions this season, which has exposed a pedestrian offense even more, but should be somewhat better this week, but a lot of that depends on the health of Mariota. Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz looked a bit rusty in his debut after a torn ACL sidelined him late last season. he has been throwing to TE a lot, but that is something the Titans have defended very well. The key to this game, regarding the Philly offense v the stout Titan defense, is the return of WR Alshon Jeffery, as well as a healthy Jay Ajayi running the ball. The Eagles have had their greatest success running over tackle Lane Johnson, and there will be a huge mismatch against the Titan's right side with Derrick Morgan, who is a huge liability. The Titans have scored just 2 TD's all season, and Mariota managed just 4.8 yards per attempt vs Jacksonville. Wentz should be a bit more confident in his knee this week, and with Jeffries and Ajayi back, I think the defenses are a wash, but the question marks continue to loom large for the Titan offense with a QB that is feeling himself through games. Make the play on Philadelphia.

Penn St. will host Ohio St. in the biggest game of the season so far. Both squads come in with a 4-0 record on the season, and rank 1 & 2 in points per game. Ohio St. QB Dwayne Haskins has certainly upgraded the Ohio St. offense, and the Buckeye aerial attack is striking for 10.2 yards an attempt vs opponents surrendering 7.5. There is little argument that the Buckeye offense is one of the best in the nation, perhaps 2nd only to Alabama. Penn St. and QB Trace McSorley are not quite up to those numbers in the passing game, but still potent at 8.6 yards an attempt. The key on offense for Penn St., is how well can they run the ball? They have been about 2 yards a play better in this regard, than their opposing defenses, and while Ohio St. has been above average vs the run, their schedule of opponents net just 4.4 yards a tote, while Penn St. is generating 6.4. While Ohio St. has some edge on offense, the Nittany Lions have an equal edge at the least, against an Ohio St. team that has played 2 good offenses in Oregon St., and TCU and were burned for big plays of 49, 78,80, and 93 yards. They certainly can't afford that here. Secondly, the Buckeyes only road game at TCU, resulted in a 40-28 win, but the real story was, Ohio St. scored 2 defensive TDs, had a +3 margin in turnovers, and were slightly out-gained per play by TCU. McSorley is 16-0 SU at home in his career, and 26-5 SU overall. The 5 losses have seen 4 decided by 3,3,3, and 1 point. Penn St. is 7-0 SU and ATS at home if not a favorite of 20 or more, and 6-0-1 ATS, and McSorley has never lost ATS home or away in competitively expected games lined from -7 to +7. Home dogs that have scored 38 or more points, in 2 straight wins are 98-44 ATS. Make the play on Penn St.

The Florida Atlantic Owls had a breakout season a year ago, but don't have the same level of all around talent that they did a year ago. Their biggest weakness is in their secondary where they have been carved up for a woeful 10.1 yards per attempt, arguably the worst in the country. Enter a QB that many are unaware of, in Middle Tennessee signal caller Brett Stockstill (coaches son), and trouble is looming. Stockstill is a 6th year serior, that is approaching 10,000 yards for his career, and could get there in this game. He also has 84 TDs to just 26 INT's while completing 68% on the season. He will own the biggest advantage in the field in this one. Middle Tennessee has averaged 32.5ppg in his 4 years directing the offense, and just shy of 40ppg at home. Hos one home start against FAU produced 77 points. MTSU is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 following a 21 or more point loss in their last game, and I have a 64-26 ATS situation on them as well. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are just 1-3 on the season, and I believe this team is going to take some frustrations out on a very bad Bowling Green team, that matches up horribly against the Tech's triple option. Bowling Green has surrendered over 1300 yards on the ground through 4 games, including 558 yards on just 61 carries vs Miami,O. and E. Kentucky. The fact is G. Tech has never faced a team through 4 games or more allowing over 300 rushing yards a game. The Bowling Green offense is averaging just 4.3 yards a play and the Tech defense is slightly above average as well, so the Jackets have full control of every aspect of this game, including extensive garbage time, where they will still score on the ground. i have Tech with a 400 yard advantage in this game, make the play on Georgia Tech.

The LA Rams have looked like a Super Bowl team through the first 3 weeks of the 2018 season, and enter this game at 3-0. They certainly have done everything you could ask of a team. They have won each of their first 3 games by 12 points or more, and additionally have out-scored their opponents by 66 points. There have been just 5 other teams in the NFL to accomplish that, but now for the down side. Those 5 teams proceeded to go 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their next game. The Vikings have beaten teams that have a combined 1-8 SU record, with the lone win vs Buffalo. This will be their first true test. They will have to pass this test without the services of shutdown corner Aqib Talib, and likely without their other shutdown corner Marcus Peters. The Vikings will go to work targeting Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs. Vikings did a very good jon shutting down an elite Rams attack a year ago, limiting them to 7 points, and out-gaining them 451-270. Gurley was just 15-37 and no Ram rush generated 10 yards or more. Vikings are 45-24 ATS under Zimmer, and own a 13-0 ATS mark facing a team off a pair of double-digit wins, when they are not off a double digit win themselves. Rams have done a lot to become over-rated, and missing a pair of shutdown corners makes this game a lot closer. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl in the 2013-14 season. Their offense was led by an emerging star in Russell Wilson, and their defense was anchored by numerous Pro Bowl defenders. Many thought this young, and talented team was built to win more. They had some very elite seasons, but never won since. The fact is this team has been in erosion slowly since. The Super Bowl team averaged 26.6ppg and allowed just 14.3ppg, look at what has happened since (year, offensive avg, defensive avg.)

2014        25.1        16.9

2015        25.4        17.6

2016        22.2        18.6

2017        22.9        20.8

2018        20.5        25.5

Since that Super Bowl win the offense has eroded by 6.1ppg and the defense by 11.2ppg. Combined, this team has been 17.3ppg worse on the scoreboard. They are missing 5 Pro Bowlers from the defense, and the offensive lie is in shambles, they can't run, ad Russell Wilson is under siege in every drop back. he has been sacked 12 times in 2 games, and the Dallas defense has been a sack machine. The 12th man has been considered lethal for opposing teams, but since Seattle has become a below average team, they have lost 4 of their last 5 here, the once impossible place to play has become winnable. Wilson is being forced into mistakes, and last week threw his first pick-6 since his rookie year, and fumbled in the 4th quarter, on a strip sack. A team that starts 0-2 has made the playoffs just 12% of the time, and that my speak a lot louder than the presumed Seattle 12th man, that has not had the same impact as Seattle erodes. Make the play on Dallas.

The Memphis Tigers were 10-3 a year ago averaging 45.5ppg. They appear to be even better this season. This is going to be a very difficult game for S. Alabama who at best is average from the line of scrimmage, trying to defend a Memphis team averaging over 9 yards a carry on the ground, and over 9 yards a pass attempt. The Tigers are very good defensively, something they did not have too often a year ago, holding teams to 3.9 yards a play. Darrell Henderson has been a beast on the ground where he has picked up 521 yards on just 36 carries at 14.5 yards a carry. The speed on this offense is going to leave S. Alabama in the dust, and Memphis is certainly not shy about running up the score, scoring 63 or more 9 times in the last 5 years, this looks like #10. Make the play on Memphis.

The Kentucky Wildcats are off to a 3-0 start, and finally broke through vs Florida, beating the Gators for the first time in 31 years. This is a confident experienced team that has an NFL caliber back in Benny Snell, who has rushed for 2.779 yrs. in 2+ years. QB Terry Wilson has thrown for 392 yards, while running for 233 himself. Miss St. is very good on both sides of the ball, and QB Nick Fitzgerald is good with his legs and arm, and will present quite the challenge for the Cats. Last year Miss St. crushed Kentucky at home 45-7 so there is a huge revenge factor here for Kentucky. The Wildcats are as good as they have been in quite some time, and are being under-valued here. They have lost 6 SEC home games since the start of 2015, and 5 of them have been:

Florida      -1

Miss         -3

Georgia      -3

Florida      -5

Auburn       -3

Basically even with worse teams, they seldom get beat by much at home if they lose, and that list includes some strong teams. Kentucky applies to a situation that is 55-27-1 ATS, and I think the Cats are even capable of an upset here, so I'll gladly take the points. Make the play on Kentucky.

The Clemson Tigers certainly look the part of a team destined for the final four. Clemson will take on Georgia Tech who runs out of the triple option, where the ball is on the ground 80% of the time. The problem is, the option has not been successful against Clemson. This year the Tigers have gone against the option vs Georgia Southern, and even Furman has triple option elements in its offense. Tech runs it with better athletes, but the speed and size Clemson brings to the table has stopped the Tech option cold. The last 3 years, Clemson has held the Tech running game to 364 yards on 123 carries, at just shy of 3 yards a carry. The vulnerability in this Clemson defense is through the air, but Tech has completed 13 passes in 3 years vs Clemson, as that is simply not their offense. Tech is pretty pedestrian on defense, and they will have difficulty stopping a Clemson offense that is generating 7.4 yards per play on the season including an elite 9.3 yards per attempt in the air. This is a mismatch to start with, but the Tech style is not in the mold to threaten or compete with Clemson. Make the play on Clemson.

The scoreboard last week saw Washington win 24-6 over Arizona on the road, while Indianapolis was losing 34-23 at home to Cincinnati. The optics of those results has changed what was considered a fair line on this game from a -3 advanced line to now -6, in favor of the Skins. Things weren't as bad as they looked for the Colts trailing 27-23, and driving late, a fumble for a Bengal TD, and over and out. This sets this game up nicely, as team's that won by more than 10 points in week 1, covered as a dog by ,ore than 15, while their opponent did not cover, have not covered or won, since 2009, as they are 0-8 SU and 0-8 ATS. Luck has a career 76% cover rate coming off a loss, and is 24-15 ATS with a total from 45-52. Alex Smith has a career 1-4 record vs the Colts and a passer rating of an ugly 68.4. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The NY Jets unveiled Sam Darnold last week, and are very optimistic off his strong performance, despite the first score of the game a pick-6 against him. The Jets won going away 48-17, but a lot of things happened here. The game was 17-17 early in the 3rd, when the Jets scored on a pick-6 and a punt return, and all together the Jets scored on a 62 yard run, a 41 yard pass, and a 21 yard pass, as 35 of their 48 points came on non-offensive TDs, or from outside the res-zone. The Jets also benefited from Matthew Stafford's 4 INT's. There was a lot to like about Darnold, but a lot of question marks as well, as sustained drives were very uncommon. Miami is glad to have Ryan Tannehill back. He was 20-28 for 230 yards, and 2 TDs. I think this game is a toss up, so getting a FG here is huge. Make the play on Miami.

The Ole Miss Rebels program spun out of control under Hugh Freeze, and they will once again be under Bowl sanctions. many will say this will be Ole Miss' Bowl game, facing Alabama, but that was true last year as well, and they lost 66-3. The Ole Miss offense appears formidable once again, but so was it last year, when they averaged 36ppg coming into the Alabama game, and were completely shut down. The bigger problem is the defense that allowed 34ppg last season, that gave up 41 to S. Illinois last week, and has allowed 44ppg to Alabama in the last 7 meetings. This may be the best Alabama offense in the Saban era. Tua Tagovailoa is throwing for 13 yds. per attempt with 7 TDs and 0 INT's. he is backed up by Jalen Hurts, and a bevy of RB's so the backdoor is less likely than ever for the Tide. NCAA Football is a momentum spirt. A road favorite that has won 2 straight by 27 or more points, against a team that allowed 37 or more in its last game is 155-88 ATS, with a sunset that is 80-29 ATS. Alabama is 10-3 ATS as a road chalk of 20 or more, including 8-2 ATS in the Saban era. Play on Alabama.

Tulsa won 10 games in 2016, and came back in 2017, and lost 10. They suffered a lot injuries, but this team simply was not competitive. Coach Montgomery, now in his 4th year, realizes the Golden Hurricanes fortunes have to change, or he will be out the door. He went for the quick fox of a poor defense, signing 8 JUCO Transfers for a defense. Arkansas St. has an experienced and really good QB, and 4 WR's that are from 6'3" to 6'6" all with skill. Last week Arkansas St. was ripped by Alabama 57-7 so they are not on anyone's radar, but the Red Wolves generated nearly 400 yards of offense against the Tide. Tulsa played Texas close, at least on the scoreboard, as they were out-gained by well over 100 yards. Arkansas St. is quite simply the better team, and should get the outright win here. Make the play on Arkansas St.

The Seattle Seahawks, just 5 or so years ago were considered to be a dynasty in the making. They had a young inspiring QB, and a defense that was considered one of the best ever in the NFL. fast forward, and this team has been ripped apart, did not make the playoffs a year ago, and are now 5 Pro Bowlers removed from that vaunted defense. It appears the bottom has yet to be reached, and a further erosion is likely this season. Denver tried starting 3 different Qb's in 2017, Siemian, Osweller, and Lynch. The latter 2 went winless in 6 starts. The trio combined for 22 INT's, and none had better than a 73 passer rating. Enter case Keenum off a breakout season in Minnesota. he will have Sanders, and Thomas as Pro Bowl caliber receivers, and even if he regresses some from a year ago, he will be a substantial upgrade from a year ago. perhaps a bigger, and widely unknown factor here is the Denver altitude, early in the season, when players are simply not in game shape yet, as most starters make cameos in the NFLX. That has a major impact on opponents in week's 1 and 2, at home for Denver. Denver is 31-3 SU at home in the first 2 weeks of the season, 22-10-2 ATS. They win by an average margin of 9.88ppg, and cover by an average of 5.12ppg. Their last home loss in week's 1 and 2 at home came back on September 12, 2011. That was to a division rival, who plays here every year, outside of the division in week's 1 and 2 home games Denver has won 13 straight, last loss was on September 13, 1999, almost 20 years ago! They have won these games by an average of +13.26ppg and covered by an average of +9.21ppg. They have never lost to an NFC team, that play here just once every 8 years, they are 7-0 SU/ATS, winning by +15.43ppg and covering by +13.64ppg. Make the play on Denver.

Rutgers sure has had trouble since joining the Bog-12. That rings especially true against what are the annually best teams in the Big-10, Michigan St., Penn St., Ohio St., Michigan, and Wisconsin. Rutgers in their last 16 games against that group is 2-13-1 ATS having been out-scored 46-6. They have faced Ohio St. 4 times, losing by a combined score of 219-24, or 54.8-6.0. That is 49 points a game, and the distance between these teams is just as wide this year. Ohio St. has won every game by 39 points or more. Last week the Buckeyes put up 77 against Oregon St. They were even picked off in the end-zone on another possession, that was run back 82 yards to set up a FG. Three scores against them of 50,80, and 80 yards, wasn't even enough to keep it within 46. Ohio St.'s reserves continued to score, so I'm not so concerned about a back door cover here by Rutgers. One of the ugliest games on the schedule. Make the play on Ohio St.

Many will look at the FAU debacle at Oklahoma last week, and decide that last year's potent team was just a fluke, or that this team isn't nearly as good. last year they started 1-3, and proceeded to run the table. One of those early season losses was vs Wisconsin, where they got 9 first downs, to Wisconsin's 29. Wisconsin went for almost 600 yards, FAU about 250. Air Force is not Oklahoma, or Wisconsin, and they will travel over 2000 miles for this one. Air Force was 5-7 last year, and did not beat a single winning team. They opened with an easy win vs Stony Brook, but lost in the shuffle was their very poor 77 rushed for 333 yards, just 4.3ypc, 2 lost fumbles, and just 2 pass completions. The Air Force defense allowed 6ypc a year ago, and FAU is a powerful running team. Worthman runs the ball too much, and his completion percentage was under 50% a year ago, and things look the same. FAU off an embarrassing loss and coming home, will be primed to do big damage here. Make the play on FAU. 

TCU and SMU both reside in Texas, and have met with a high level of frequency through the years. SMU had some early success in the history between these teams, but recently, it has been all SCU. Gary Pattersin finally gets his prized 4* QB Shawn Robinson under center. Robinson was the first ever 4* QB recruit at TCU. Robinson is a bona fide duel threat QB, running 23 times for 6.9 yards a carry a year ago, and just 2 runs last week for 45 yards. He is surrounded by the highest rated skill set of players in TCU history, and against a Sonny Dykes team, that never has even an average defense, and was torched by N. Texas for 500+ yards a week ago, and completely shutdown offensively, it doesn't look like a good match up here for the Mustangs. N. Texas led 36-0 going to the 4th quarter, as the SMU offense could do nothing. SMU has an extremely poor history vs P5 schools, are 0-15 SU since a 2010 win vs Washington St, just 4-10-1 ATS. Longer term they are a woeful 1-31 SU vs Pr teams since 2001, and just 10-21-1 ATS. They have allowed 41.9ppg in those 32 contests, and this defense is capable of seeing that grow. Breaking diwn the numbers further shows the Mustangs at 3-18-1 ATS vs P5 schools from +32 or less in their last 22. Most recently, in their last 4 vs P5 teams, they have been out-scored 203-30. This looks like a bargain, and a blowout, make the play on TCU.

The W. Virginia Mountaineers were on the move last year at 7-3, losing only to V. Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. Those teams were a collective 31-9. They then lost QB Will Grier, and proceeded to lose 3 straight, by an average score of 39-20. It caused the Mounties to suffer on both sides of the ball. They went from winning at the line of scrimmage by +0.9 yards per play, to losing at the line by -2.6. The value of a healthy Grier goes beyond points. Tennessee averaged 14.1ppg in 8 conference games a year ago, never getting to even 27 points in any of them. The offense this season looks to be just about the same. Overall, they averaged 15.4ppg in their last 10. Grier is healthy, and W. Virginia is going to average over 40ppg this year (39ppg a year ago). The 3 best offenses this team saw a year ago were Alabama (45), Georgia (41), and Missouri (50). You can see where I am going with this. make the play on W. Virginia.

A lot of stuff going on at Ohio St. I'm sure these kids are itching to get on the field, and take out some of their anguish. They will do as they please vs an Oregon St. team that has not won on the road since 2014 (0-17), allowing 44.1ppg on the process. Overall, last year the Beavers allowed 43ppg, and I don't see much here that will improve upon that. This team is close to being a bottom 20 team in the country, and with so many injuries coming into game 1, at key spots, things could get worse. Ohio St. has been very good at these huge lined games, 12-7 ATS, and while there will be a lot of garbage time, the Ohio St. backups, in most cases, are better than the Oregon St. starters. Not much you can say about a game like this, except, this could easily be one of those 70-7 type games. Make the play on Ohio St.

It certainly looked bleak last week for the Minnesota Vikings, but the Minnesota Miracle, a play that will be shown over and over for the next decade, pulled them out of the fire, and into the NFL Championship game. Philadelphia, seemed doomed when Carson Wentz went down with a season ending knee injury, but Nick Foles, who has not done much, has been asked to manage the game, and not lose it, and allow the Philly defense to make plays. That has certainly been the case, as the total score in the Eagles last 3 games has been Philadelphia 34 Opponents 28. The 11.3ppg has been good enough to get them here, will it be good enough to get them to the Super Bowl? I don't think so. Minnesota QB Case Keenum is having one of those special years, and he may never repeat it, or he may be a great QB going forward. he has better weapons to throw to, and has been making big plays all season. I think last week the Vikings may have taken the pressure off leading 17-0, and it should of cost them, and it won't happen twice in 2 weeks, and Foles is not Drew Brees. Foles is throwing for 6 yards per attempt on the season, and just 5.2 in the last 3 weeks, which would grade out the worst in the NFL. It takes more than 1 side of the ball to win a Championship. A team that has allowed 30 points or less combined in their last 3 games, and at least the last one of those was in a playoff game, and this is a playoff game, allow on average 23.6ppg, so I expect Minnesota to score a decent amount, and the more they score in this game, the less likely Philadelphia is to cover and or win. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Jacksonville Jaguars after years of struggling have built their team to the extent that they are 1 game away from the Super Bowl. that one game will not be easy as they take on New England. The Jags defense that allowed 14.1ppg in their first 10, is suddenly not playing at the same level, having allowed 21.5ppg in their last 8. They needed 45 points to win last week. That leaves them in an ominous position as NFL teams that scored 40 or more points in the prior game, facing a team off at least 2 straight wins are 1-14 ATS in the playoffs. Their biggest challenge comes from defending Rob Gronkowski. The Pats will spread the field and look over the middle for him, and he is a huge play maker. The Pats also will utilize their backs on short passing plays, and take advantage of th 2 weak areas of the Jags defense. While overall they rank #1 covering the opponents top WR, and #2 against the #2 opponents WR, they are 20th against TE's and in the teens vs RB's. No one is more capable of exploiting this than Tom Brady. On the other side of the ball is a big question mark in Blake Bortles. He could be very good or very bad. One thing for sure, the Pats defense is vastly underrated. After allowing 32ppg in their first 4, the Pats have allowed 14ppg in their last 13, better than Minnesota, or Jacksonville. Scoing on defense is a huge asset of the Jag's, but NE doesn't very often throw a pick-6. Brady has attempted over 10,000 passes including the playoffs, and thrown just 13 pick-6's. It will probably take one for the Jags to cover here, and the odds certainly are well against that occurring. Make the play on New England.

The Jacksonville Jaguars manhandled the Pittsburgh Steelers here earlier in the season. It became a defining moment for Big Ben after he threw 5 INT's in the game. he started publicly stating if he should retire, that he just didn't have it any more. He got over that moment fast and led Pittsburgh to a 13-3 record on the season. I think the Steelers will be a lot more ready this time. They have a huge advantage playing at home in cold weather. The history shows that ATS winning percentage goes up ti 55% for cold weather teams in December and January, but that is just part of the story. A lot of those teams, Cleveland, NY Jets, and Buffalo have been awful for a long time, just 1 Super Bowl between them, and that was close to 50 years ago. The elite cold weather teams such as Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New England are a combined 143-94-7 ATS in December and January for 60.3% winners, and when facing the  12 warm weather teams they are 43-20 ATS and removing games played vs each other (6-9 ATS), they are 37-11 ATS. This makes for a huge advantage as these 3 teams have a lot of playoff, and Super Bowl history, and the operative here is elite. measuring all games shows a slight edge, but when your dealing with elite, it is exceptional. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

A familiar face and a team that has not won a National Championship since the days of Herchel Walker will square off in the NCAA Football National Championship game. The familiar face is Alabama, they have dominated the college football landscape in the Saban era, that began in 2008. His team is healthy again on defense, and we saw that vs Clemson, keeping the Tigers out of the end-zone. Alabama has lost just 14 games since 2008, and it isn't often a freshamn QB beats a Saban team, in fact there have been just 2, Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M, and Trevor Knight of Oklahoma. I'm not sure Jake Fromm is among the caliber of QB needed to beat Alabama, in fact 10 of the 14 QB's that posted a win vs the Tide in the Saban era were Jr's or Sr.'s. The Saban coaching tree is expansive, and all 11 coaches formerly on his staff are a combined 0-11 against him, losing by a combined margin of 316 points, or 427-111. Saban owns 20 wins vs top 5 teams, more than any other coach by a long shot. The odds makers have this one set with a line of -3.5 to -4, and a total of 45.5, which means the expected score rounding the line off to 4  and 45, would say 24.5-20.5. A perspective on that and a measuring stick would be that Saban is 112-1 SU when the opponent scores less than 23. Saban is also 9-1 ATS to a line of +6.5 to -4 at Alabama, 9-0 SU/ATS if the total is less than 55 in those games, covering by a staggering 18ppg. Georgia beat Oklahoma by virtue of long breakaway plays from the line of scrimmage in their running game. I doubt that will happen here. The Tide has allowed just 1 running touchdown of more than 5 yards this season (16 yards vs Auburn). They have also allowed 2 TD passes from outside of the red-zone all year, and one of those was to Fresno St. when leading 34-3, and back ups in the game. Alabama has allowed just 3 first half TD's all season, and Georgia can not afford to get behind here, because the running game is essential to their success. Saban has faced 18 monster running attacks at Alabama, each averaging over 250 yards per game, and held them on average to 38 carries for 125 yards. Georgia had problems defending Oklahoma as expected, but it was the way the Sooners gashed the Bull Dogs on the ground that is an eye opener. The Dogs have allowed 8 TD's from outside the red-zone. Alabama is healthy on defense, and held Clemson out of the end-zone, and 188 total yards. the Tigers had a potent running game that generated 64 yards on 33 carries. Auburn generated just 3.4 yards per attempt in their 26-14 win vs the Tide, with Alabama missing several key defenders. The Tide held Fla. St. (with Francois),Auburn, Clemson, LSU, A&M, Miss., and Miss St. all to 3.5 yards or less rushing the ball. It has also been 43 games since a team has run for 200 yards vs Alabama.  Chubb and Michel ran for 199 yards back in 2015 vs the Tide, but was down 38-3 at home, and Chubb broke one for 83 yards against reserves, in a 38-10 loss. This is a first for Georgia, while Alabama has been here many times before, and appear to be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Make the play on Alabama.

The New Orleans Saints and Carolina panthers have seen a lot of each other, as they both play in the NFC South. The Saints dominated the Panthers this season, winning both games, and doing what the Saints do, carve up defenses, scoring over 30 points in both games. The Saints have been a scoring machine at home averaging 30.1ppg, topping the 30 point average mark at home for the 3rd straight season. They have not been slowed down by this Carolina team at all, having scored 30 in 8 of the last 10 meetings in New Orleans. There is one major difference this year, the Saints allowed an average of over 30ppg at home the past 2 years, just 22.5ppg this year, they are equally explosive on offense, but much tighter on defense. Carolina is fairly tight in their front 7, but the secondary plays mostly zone, and for an experienced QB such as Brees, that is a great scenario for the Saints offense. Brees has averaged 31.5ppg at home vs the Panthers. A good measuring stick is the fact that a home team in the wildcard round that scores more than 20 points has been 35-1 SU and 30-5-1 ATS. The Saints have scored 20 or more in 22 of their last 23 home games. Some other things that trend toward New Orleans is a team that has given up fewer points in the regular season are 21-12-1 ATS, teams that allow less in defensive yards per point are 21-14-1 ATS. A team that has forced more turnovers is 20-11-1 ATS. The Saints have averaged 37ppg in their 4 home playoff games since division realignment, and Carolina has had just 1 road playoff game since 2005 and gave up 31. The line movement on this game is heading toward New Orleans, and when that happens, the team where the line movement is heading towards them, is 22-9 ATS last 31 NFL playoff games. Make the play on New Orleans.

It has been quite the turnaround for the LA Rams, a team that won just 4 games a year ago, and finished this season with 11. they went from a season scoring margin of -146, to +149, an amazing 295 point turnaround. It was almost entirely done offensively where the Rams went from 224 points scored to 478, while defensively they were pretty static year over year. While that is the feel good, there are some significant caveats and red flags as well. Just about everything broke perfect for this team. They beat Dallas when they were without Mike Lee, a situation in which Dallas loses most of the time. They beat Jacksonville with 2 special teams TD's. Lost to Minnesota by 17. beat new Orleans when they were missing both starting CB's. beat Seattle who was missing 4 of their top 5 players on the back 7 of their defense. That is a lot of breaks, and each situation was favorable for their offense. Teams that make such huge gains, year over year, make lousy playoff teams, in fact a team that won 4 or fewer games last year, but won 10 or more the next season are a woeful 0-10 SU, and 0-9-1 ATS in the playoffs, failing to cover by 9ppg. The emergence of Jared Goff is the biggest reason for the Rams marked improvement this season, but can he duplicate those performances in the playoffs? History says he will struggle. A QB making his 1st playoff start over the last 15 years is 11-27 SU, and 11-26-1 ATS, including 4-10 ATS as a home favorite. Moreover, a team that has not made a playoff appearance the last 3 years is 8-20-1 ATS in their first playoff game. Atlanta is a changed team, they battled injuries, mostly on offense, and did not come close to being the explosive offensive team they were a year ago. The biggest difference is the strides their defense made, as they are a legit top 10 defense, and while the points were a struggle, the Falcons gained the 8th most yards in the NFL, so they have better potential than their scoring numbers. The playoffs are a whole different animal, and the Rams have just 6 players totaling 21 games of playoff experience on their roster, while Atlanta is loaded with experience. Your going to read a lot about the Super Bowl curse. Only 2 teams that lost the Super Bowl the prior year, won it the next year, and none in the last 23 years. However, the teams that made it back to the playoffs the following year over those last 23 years (13), just 4 of them lost in the wild card round, and 9 moved on (69.2%), and the Falcons don't even have to move on, they just have to lose by less than a TD. better than that, the last 12 teams that played in the Super Bowl, the previous year and lost had just 1 team lose by as many as 6 points! So every one of them covered this line, but 1 would have pushed. make the play on Atlanta.

The Tennessee Titans will head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in the NFL Wild Card round. It has not been the type of season Titan fans expected from Marcus Mariota, as he threw for just 13 TD's and 15 INT's on the season, and for his career he is just 8-13 ATS on the road, and 8-16 ATS vs a defense allowing from 5.9 to 7.9 yards per pass attempt. Have to be concerned about the Titan schedule that feature just 2 teams that made the playoffs in their last 13 games, and they scored 15, and 17 points against them. The Bills and the Titans are the only 2 playoff teams that scored 17 or less 7 times this season. That may factor into the equation today as wild card road teams that score less than 17 points are 1-22 SU and 0-23 ATS. The Chiefs have been a feast or famine team this season, opening at 5-0, fading at 1-6, and finishing at 4-0. They are 10-0 ATS when they win, and 0-6 ATS when they lose, and are now 16-0 ATS in their last 16 wins. Wild card round home favorites of greater than -7.5 are 11-0 ATS since 1994. There is another huge concern for the Titans. Demarcus Murray has been ruled out. The Titans have used both Murray and Henry situationally and equally all season, trying to wear down the defenses. Last game, with Murray out, Henry ran the ball a season high 28 times, more than double the amount of carries he has had since week 6. he is sure to be feeling it coming back on 5 days rest. Moreover, he has shown fatigue in his last 4 games, rushing for just 115 yards on 51 carries, or 2.25 yards a carry. There is another issue. Murray was an instrumental part in the Titan's pass attack. He caught 39 balls, while Murray has just 11 catches all season. The Chiefs win because of ball security and a ball hawking defense. Over the last 3 years the Chiefs have forced an NFL high 88 turnovers, while turning it over themselves just 42 times, for a plus 46. Teams entering the wild card round with a season turnover edge are 20-11-1 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City.

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL - Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Sugar Bowl will play host for round 3 of Clemson v Alabama. These teams have split games the past 2 years in the Championship game, this year just 1 will make it, the winner of this game. Clemson is 40-3 SU over the period and the Tide is 39-3 SU, as both have dominated NCAA Football the past 3 years, with a combined 4 losses vs any other team. There are a lot of similarities, but one huge difference. Deshaun Watson is no longer at Clemson. To put into perspective what he did in the last 2 meetings, how about this stat. Clemson gained 1,055 yards vs Alabama the last 2 years, and Watson accounted for 825 of them through the air, and another 116 on the ground for a total of 941 of 1055 yards, or a ridiculous 89.1% of all yards. I have a great deal of respect for Kelly Bryant, but he is filling impossible shoes. We all knew how good Watson was, but it was certainly deemed real when he started dominating in the NFL as well before he was injured. Clemson is not an elite offense this year, far from it. They average 6.0 yds per play vs a schedule of opponents that combine to allow 5.7. Compare that to Alabama who averages 6.9 vs a schedule of opponents allowing 5.7. Defensively both of these teams are as good as it gets, Clemson allowing 4.3 yards a play vs a schedule of opponents that have combined to average 5.6. Alabama is allowing 4.0 to a schedule of opponents that combine to average 5.7. Alabama has better numbers on both sides of the ball, and more importantly, an experienced QB that has been here before. Jalen Hurts has thrown 1 INT all season, and Alabama seldom beats themselves, and has not made more than a single turnover in any game this season vs an opponent that was over .500 prior to the game. Alabama was not healthy late in the season, they lost 3 top LB's and they are all ready to go now. The defense may in fact be better. This will likely be a lower scoring game than the shootouts we have seen in the first 2, as I think both offenses are not as good, although I give the edge to Alabama, and the experience to Alabama, while the defenses are as good as ever. Revenge, experience at QB, a better offense. Saban is 9-2 ATS if he is a favorite of -4 or less, including pick or dog. Make the play on Alabama.

ND is missing about 50% of their TD catches from an already suspect passing game. Running game has not been good against the better defenses. Josh Adams well over 1000 yds against crap teams, just 69-220 vs GA.MICH ST.,MIA,STAN,WF, similar lack of success for Wimbush, 264 vs those teams. ND  2-3/1-4 run for under 100, 7-0/6-1 over it. LSU much improved against the run down the stretch (

It has been quite a turnaround at C. Florida, a team that was 0-12 just 2 years ago ran the table to finish the season at 12-0. They do however have one big obstacle in the way, and that is Auburn. Many have already considered that Auburn will be a no-show, having lost the opportunity to play in a National Championship game, and I don't believe that is going to be the case, at least if you take a look at history. I take you back to the 2006-07 season. Hawaii led by Colton Brennan had an unstoppable offense. Brennan had completed 73% of his passes, and ran the ball well. He finished the year with 5,549 passing yards, and a ridiculous 58 TD's. Most thought the warriors would take down a tough defensive SEC team in Georgia. Well, they lost  41-10, ran the ball for negative yardage, and a team that passed for 10 yards per attempt was held to 5.5, and 6 turnovers. Next up was the unbeaten Cincinnati team, taking on a powerful SEC defense. Tony Pike had 29 TD's , but against the Florida defense was stopped cold, 170 yards at 3.8 yds per attempt, and the power running game as held to 3.3 yds a carry, and 76 yards. Florida won 54-21, (led 37-3 and called off the dogs). How about the amazing Jordan Lynch for N. Illinois. Lynch passed and ran over everyone, until meeting the powerful Florida St. defense. Lynch finished that year just shy of 2,000 rushing yards as a QB, but just 23-44 vs Florida St, and 15-41 in the air, 176 yards at 4.3 an attempt. They lost 31-10. How about the amazing Ball St. team behind Nate Davis. Davis averaged a prolific 9 yds an attempt. , he went 9-29 vs Tulsa for 143 yards, his team was 28-81 on the ground. Now it is the potent offense of C. Florida that goes up against an elite Auburn defense. Auburn also has an elite offense. We saw Memphis that rolled over everyone, get held to 20 vs Iowa St. This Georgia defense is way beyond what Iowa St. has. The SEC since 2006 is 9-1 ATS vs an unbeaten team in a Bowl game, and look for that to go to 10-1 after Auburn crushes C. Florida. Make the play on Auburn.

The South Carolina Gamecocks and the Michigan Wolverines are both 8-4 heading into their New Year's Day Bowl game. South Carolina perhaps played their best 2 games, in their first 2. They beat a good NC State team, and dominated Missouri, although Missouri was not good at all early in the season. They have had offensive issues all season, have not had a single running back carry the ball even 100 times, and the passing game behind Jake Bentley has been average at best. He has thrown for 16 TD's, but also 11 INT's. Th offense was derailed completely vs the 2 top defensive teams they faced, in Georgia, and Clemson, scoring just 10 points in each. They combined for 487 yards in those games on 133 plays, for a woeful 3.6 yards per play. Michigan brings in a defense capable of the same. The Wolverines could not handle the Big-10 elite teams, as all 4 losses came to Penn St, Michigan St., Wisconsin, and Ohio St. Those 4 teams are a combined 46-8, and Michigan managed just 13.3ppg in the 4 contests, and allowed 27.8ppg. The 8 wins were an entirely different story. The Wolverines averaged 32ppg and allowed 13.3ppg, winning all 8 games by 7 points or more, and 7 of the 8 by 16 or more. There is optics saying that Brandon Peters is an upgrade at QB for Michigan. O'Korn and Speights, combined for 5 TD's and 8 INT's, while Peters has passed for 4 TD's and 0 INT's on 37-64 passes at 7.6 yards per attempt, much better than the previously mentioned Michigan QB's. While the sample size is relatively small, one would be encouraged that Peters may be more than what the Wolverines have had much of the season. Michigan isn't likely to get to the 32ppg they have averaged in their previous 8 wins, but they are likely to get in the 20s, and I have a lot of reservations regarding the very pedestrian offense of South Carolina, to score much at all here. The Gamecocks also have kicking issues, with 2 kickers combing to go 12/25 on FG attempts, and if they miss out on 3 points here, it will add to their scoring woes. Michigan in this one.

Week 17 is strange in the NFL, but one strange coach, Bill Belichick doesn't seem to ease up. While the Pats have often clinched the division, or a playoff slot by this time, it hasn't slowed them down. The Pats own the best week 17 record in the NFL at 19-7 ATS, and under the Hoodie, they are 13-4 ATS. Temperatures going to be in the single numbers for this one. The Jet's offense under Bryce Petty has been awful, as he has completed just 50% with 1 TD and 3 INT's, and a woeful 4.4 yards per attempt. Jets averaging just 8.8ppg in their last 3. Petty now has a 55.1 passer rating in the 9 NFL games he has played. NFL huge home favorites in week 17 of -11.5 or more points, that have 11 or 12 wins are 12-0 ATS, winning on average 35-10. Make the play on New England.

Week 17 NFL home teams playing to low totals of less than 42, and a line from +5 to -2.5 are 61-27-2 ATS. Make the play on Philadelphia.

Week 17 NFL home teams playing to low totals of less than 42, and a line from +5 to -2.5 are 61-27-2 ATS. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Minnesota Vikings have overcome a lot of key injuries, to put themselves in position to earn a 1st round bye with a win over Chicago today at home. The Vikings have worked to hard to let this opportunity slip away. John Fox was hired to turn the Bears around, but Chicago is just 14-33 since he took over. Perhaps what is most notable for the Bears this season is the fact that they are 4-0 vs the AFC, but 1-10 vs the NFC, and most importantly 0-5 in the division failing to cover any of them. This isn`t a new problem, the Bears are 4-19 SU in the division in their last 6 years, and 11-20-3 ATS. (3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS on the road). Week 17 home favorites of -11.5 and up, with 11 or 12 wins are 12-0 ATS winning by an average score of 35-10. Minnesota is now 42-15-1 ATS in their last 58 games, which includes 4-0 ATS from -9 and up. Make the play on Minnesota.