Sports Picks & Predictions

It is getting to the point, that Dabo Swinney has built a program, that rivals that of which Nick Saban has at Alabama. These programs, no longer rebuild anything, they have players in waiting, ready to be stars from game 1. The Tigers are 64-9 since the start of the 2012 season (32-2 lately), and are on even ground with the Tide. There is no weakness on this team, and the defense appears it may be as good as we have seen. That will present problems for Virginia Tech, who has played a soft schedule to this point, and aren't nearly as good as the numbers look, and I think they will get a hug wake up call in this one. Clemson has taken on Auburn, and Louisville already, and have met each challenge. Both those teams, in my opinion are better than V. Tech. Swinney has a tendency to out-scheme good teams, or at least those that allow 17ppg or less, as he is 9-0 ATS when facing them. Virginia Tech is 0-7 ATS after a game where the offense came easy, and produced 525 yards or more.I see a Clemson team that has the advantage in every area on the field, and in every match up, and I think V. tech gets severely exposed here. Make the play on Clemson.

Southern Miss had a very disappointing season a year ago. Everything appeared to be in place to make a run at he C-USA Title, but instead they needed wins in their last 2 games just to make a Bowl game. Expectations this season are much less, as they lose perhaps the best QB in school history. Keon Howard looked to be the guy, but in 2 starts a year ago as a freshman, he threw 4 INT's and completed just 44%. Enter JUCO transfer Kwandra Diggs. Diggs has won the job, getting most of the reps. he has thrown for 8.4 yards per attempt with 7 TD's and 1 INT. This includes a game vs Kentucky where his numbers were similar. The Golden Eagles returned just 4 starters from a defense that ranked 15th in yards per game a year ago, and has surprised ranking #6 so far in 2017. It is an upper-classman team, with all starters juniors or seniors and they have played well. North Texas finished 5-8, and the 8th loss was in a Bowl game. They are a mediocre team, that has put up most of their positive stats vs teams that are far inferior, and will be hard pressed to do so here. The Mean Green fit into an ugly 44-96 ATS situation as well. Make the play on Southern Miss.

The Georgia Bulldogs are always projected to be a borderline elite team, but for some reason, they just don;t seem to live up to it. This year may be different. The Dogs come in at 4-0, and through 4 games have looked like a National Championship contender. They have won on the road at Notre Dame, and dismantled a Miss. St. team at home 31-3, so they surely have been tested. They have a clear advantage in most match ups in this contest, as they run the ball 70% of the time, and do it well, while the best part of the Tennessee defense is against the pass. That is why the Vols struggled vs the two running teams they have faced in Florida, and Georgia Tech, allowing 703 rushing yards on 115 carries. While the Georgia passing attack has not done a lot, they run so much, they catch opponents cheating in the box, and it has led to 8.7 yards per attempt vs opponents allowing 7. The Georgia defense is in the conversation as the best in the country, allowing 4 yards per play vs teams that average 5.8. The mismatches all favor Georgia here, and the line is not absorbing the depth of them. Make the play on Georgia.

The Kent Golden Flashes have not done a whole lot on the football field over the course of their history. They were 11-3 back in 2012, but since joining the FBS back in 1990, they have had just 1 other winning season, and 2017 is not going to be another. The Golden Flashes have arguably the worst offense in NCAAF at the FBS level, and have yet to taste the end-zone in their 3 games vs FBS opponents, losing by combined scores of 119-6. The Flashes have an even bigger problem this week, as they are 8-27 passing in those 3 games for just 129 yards. QB Nick Holley is now done for the season, with a knee injury, and as bad as the passing game has been, it is about to get worse. kent can't run either, as they have 147 carries for 400 yards, less than 3ypc vs FBS opponents. The Bulls allow less than 20ppg, and have played Army and Minnesota, and have been better than average against the run. While Buffalo also lost their starting QB, the kent defense has been almost as bad as the offense. This is clearly a mismatch, and will gladly lay single digits here, as Kent may end up not scoring in this one at all. Make the play on Buffalo.

Friday September 29th, 2017

  Top Side Play · [110] Utah State Aggies
    Fri Sep 29th, 2017 8:00pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

The Oakland Raiders have searched for a quality QB for years, and they finally have one quickly rising to elite status. It is unlikely that many realize that Derek Carr is now 14-3 in his last 17 games. During that span he has thrown 33 TD's and just 6 INT's, and he is clean this season with 5 TD's and 0 INT's. His yards per attempt are up to 8.2 yard, and he is certainly arriving at elite status. He now has Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, and with an explosive group of receives to throw to, the Oakland offense is as good as it gets. Washington has been a run heavy team thus far this season, and Kirk Cousins is a good QB, but I think Oakland has the better team on both sides of the ball, and expect them to come away with a big road win here. The Raiders fit a situation that is 89-48 ATS as well. Make the play on Oakland.

The Los Angeles Chargers franchise is in disarray right now. They are making themselves a new home in LA, but the fan base is minimal, and this team continues to be snake bit. QB Phillip Rivers continues to play at a high level, but not much else is working right now. The Chargers are 6-16 in their last 22 games, have lost 7 straight, and of the 22 games, 18 have been decided by a single possession, unfortunately for the Chargers they are losing almost all of them. Last week rookie kicker Younghoe Koo missed a FG as time expired, adding another loss. Koo s just 1-4 on his FG attempts this season, another issue. Meanwhile, in Kansas City, QB Alex Smith has taken his last step in becoming an elite QB. he is completing 78% of his passes at 9.8ypa.The Chiefs have also gotten a huge surprise in Toledo RB Kareem Hunt, who has carried 30 times for 229 yards at 7.6 yards a pop. The KC defense has stood up when needed and have recorded 9 sacks already in 2 games. Overall, this team is taking on a look of a champion, and the process didn't just start this season. Kansas City is 2nd to New England over their last 15 games, at 12-3, and they have added a quality RB, and Alex Smith has become an elite QB. The pieces are in place for a big year, and they are still a bit under-rated. Make the play on Kansas City.

Last year the Auburn Tigers finished the season with the 5th best defense in the country, and playing in the SEC, that is making a statement. They have an even better defense this season, and through 3 games, they are ranked #1 allowing a stingy 201ypg, and held the Clemson attack to 14 points. They have a good chance of shutting out a poor Missouri offense, that has some very misleading numbers. The Tigers opened with Missouri St., and proceeded to pile up over 800 total yards, but against SC and Purdue, they managed 13 total points, and could not move the ball at all. The Missouri defense allowed 31.5ppg a year ago, and had to replace 6 starters, and have allowed 36.3ppg so far without facing a stellar offense. Auburn has Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham at QB, and while he has not been great he has been adequate. Auburn's numbers don't look as good as they could, after turning the ball over 5 times a week ago, but teams playing as a road favorite of -14.5 or more, off a game where they had a -3 or worse turnover are 50-19 ATS in their next game. I think Auburn has had a tough week of practice after the 5 turnover debacle a week ago, and will be ready to blow this one wide open. Make the play on Auburn.

Both these teams opened vs opponents that were way over their head, and started 0-2, but each had a cupcake last week and got much needed wins. This will be the first highly competitive game each has played. Lane Kiffin has taken over at FAU, and this team will eventually be good, but for now, they will struggle. The Owls have been 3-9 for 3 straight years, but I expect them to be in the hunt for a Bowl game, and a win here is crucial to that outcome. The Owls should do well offensively here with QB Daniel Parr beating out former Florida St. QB DeAndre Johnson, and RB Gregory Howell Jr. has averaged 12.1 ypc on the ground. Buffalo has looked good defensively, but the offense is going to struggle. Buffalo had some awful numbers on both sides of the ball a year ago, and while they should improve on both sides of the ball there is a long way to go. The only player on offense right now is QB Tyree Jackson, but that being said he is completing just 54% of his passes, and leads the team in rushing. There simply is no one else making an impact, and I think Kiffin schemes to key on him, which will force someone to step up, and through 3 games we just have not seen that yet. Florida Atlantic fits in an impressive 70-23 ATS situation for this one as well. Make the play on Florida Atlantic.

One team that I projected as a potential National Championship team this year is Oklahoma St. Their 1st 3 games has done nothing to change that. They have an offense that is absolutely loaded, and Heisman candidate Mason Rudolph continues to improve. he threw for 28 TD's a year ago, to just 4 INT's, so add 11 more TD's and 1 NT, and he is the best in college right now. he also has the top receiver in James Washington, and a now sophomore RB in Justice Hill (1,142 yds last year), and so much more. This is by far the best offense in football. The question for this team is the defense, but they are improved and can potentially be very good. TCU is not the same team on either side of the ball, and lost 31-6 last year to the Pokes at home. TCU allowed 30+ points against them last year 7 times. They will be hampered on offense with Kyle Hicks likely out. QB Kenny Hill threw 13 INT's a year ago, and any improvement on offense is going to up to him. While TCU addressed their issue of size on the OL, it lacks experience especially against an offense of this magnitude. They stumbled too often last year against the better teams combining to score 22 total points vs W. Virginia, Oklahoma St., and Kansas St. Oklahoma has great special teams, and led the nation a year ago in opponent's starting field position. Last but not least, the Cowboys fit a super strong 104-42 ATS situation for this one. All Cowboys here, make the play on Oklahoma St.

The Virginia Tech Hokies are going to be back in the national spotlight this season. They have passed their first test vs W. Virginia in their opener, and have started 3-0, out-scoring the 3 opponents 122-41. The Hokies like to run the ball and have done so 45 times a game, passing just 30. The ability to run has allowed QB Josh Jackson to throw in good spots and he has completed 65% of his passes at just shy of 10 yards per attempt and a strong 15.1 yards per completion. Hokies as usual will enjoy a strong special team's advantage here also. Old Dominion is 2-1 but wins over Umass, and Albany were not impressive, and allowed 53 points to North Carolina at home, completing just 14 of 32 passes. tech has the ability to put up 50+ here as well, but a difference from the NC game is, the Hokies can defend much better, and I don't see the Monarchs scoring 23 here as they did vs Carolina. This game fits a situation that has been 278-196 ATS, and has been even better of late. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

Arizona coach Rich Rodriquez is under scrutiny, and his shallow recruiting has left a lot of holes on this Arizona team. His buyout is over 5 million, but he is treading on tender ground right now. Last year the Wildcats finished 3-9, their fewest wins since 2003, and things don't look very promising. The Cats lost 8 games in the Pac-12 a year ago allowing 44.8ppg in the losses, and have a defensive line with a pair o players under 250lbs. so they are getting pushed around. The QB position is held down by Brandon Dawkins, who has no WR's to throw to, and they are suited for the ground. problem is, the Utes allow less than 50ypg on the ground, and I don't see the Cats generating much. Utah attack improved with OC change, have a duel threat QB, and off to a 3-0 start. Utes have won 9 games in each of the last 3 years, and looks like they will likely get their again. Road teams in competitive games (+3.5 to -3.5), after a pair of ATS wins, and prior to week 8 are a blistering 70-23 ATS over the last 7 years, and the Utes qualify here. Make the play on Utah.

I think Bronco Mendenhall was a good hire for Virginia, but after his 2-10 season in his first year at the helm. Mendenhall himself admitted the scope of the rebuilding process is a lot greater than he thought. Virginia has had 1 winning season in their last 8 years, and despite what looked like a great game last week, beating Uconn 38-18, the Huskies are among the worst teams in the country, and have been for several years. The Cavs lost their prevoius game at home by 17 to Indiana to gain some perspective. I think that win has held the line down here, and playing at Boise St. is far from a walk in the park. Boise St. has a very strong defense, and while Washington St. scored 47 points, it was a triple overtime game, and the Cougars managed less than 5 yards a play. QB Brett Ripien will be back under center for Boise St. and while the offense does not have the level of playmakers it did a year ago, I think the Broncos dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides. The Broncos own a 119-20 SU mark at home, and amazingly, 86 of those wins have come by 13 points or more. Broncos 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 13 or less, and 89-57 ATS following a win vs a conference opponent. Make the play on Boise St.

The Holy War will take place in BYU this season. The Utes have owned this series of late, but most game have been close. BYU has shown no signs that they will be able to move the ball on the Utes, while Utah struggled early vs N. Dakota and got things rolling. BYU needs their defense to come up big here, because they are going to have trouble getting points. They have run the ball poorly, and the passing game has been to be kind, ordinary. Overall the Utes come into this game with the better team before the season started, and continue to look like more of a complete team since the season started. I think this is going to be a long year for BYU, as they have Wisconsin on deck, and are looking down the barrel of 1-3, with the lone win a struggle vs Portland St. Utah with a win and San Jose on deck could enter Pac-12 play at 3-0, and I like them here. Make the play on Utah.

Most don't consider Oklahoma St. to be an elite team, but since the start of the 2010 season, only 11 teams have more wins than the Cowboys. This team has not been afraid to run up the score, having won 21 games during the period by 30+ points. They have been especially strong outside the conference where they are 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS, during the regular season, and 9 of the wins have come by 30+. They have been favored by 28 or more points in 9 games, and have won by an average margin of 43.1ppg. They have a Heisman candidate QB, a plethora of talented skill set players and an improved defense. They also fit a very predictive situation, one that reads, road teams off a favorite win vs an opponent off a loss, to a line of more than -20 are 79-35-1 ATS. Mae the play on Oklahoma St.

Tennessee and Georgia Tech will travel to the Superdome in New Orleans to open their 2017 season. The biggest advantage in this game belongs to Georgia Tech. The SEC is known to be the toughest conference, especially on defense. That typically plays into the hands of an opponent that runs the triple option, or in modern terms the flex bone. The entire idea of the flex bone is to negate the better defenses ability to defend an opponent, and shorten the game, and bridge the gap. History proves that out. Looking at flex bone teams including Georgia Tech, Citadel, Navy, Army, Air Force, Georgia Southern, they have a combined ATS record vs the SEC of 25-3-2  if you don't include the Georgia Tech vs Georgia games, as Georgia sees it every year, playing their instate rival. Make the play on Georgia Tech.

Hurricane Harvey has forced this game originally scheduled to be played in Houston, to be moved to the Super Dome in New Orleans. That is good news for LSU, as this becomes a quasi-home game. BYU finished at 9-4 a year ago, but think the record has them overrated coming into this season. The Cougars finished +14 in turnover margin a year ago, and chances are they will not have the same good fortune this season. QB Taysom Hill is now gone, as is RB Jamal Williams, and Tanner Magnum will be under center. I don't think this team is as well coached now that Bronco Mendenhall has moved on. BYU is going to struggle running the ball, as Magnum is purely a pocket passer, and defenses, such as LSU are going to tee-off on him in bad down and distance situations. LSU is now under the direction of Ed Orgeron. he brought in Matt Canada to run the offense, and finally the explosive talent of the Tigers ill have a chance to shine, as Canada is going to open up the offense in a big way. Overall, this is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, and special teams. BYU is 0-6 ATS in the regular season vs the SEC since 1998, don't see anything to change that here.Make the play on LSU.

Going back to 1985, no Kentucky team has ever won more than 8 games. is there a chance the Cats accomplish that or more this season? This will be Mark Stoops 5th year, and he has built a team that is starting to look SEC caliber for the first time ere in years. They have 3 very likely wins outside the conference vs E. Michigan, E. Kentucky, and this one vs S. Miss. They have 3 SEC road games, that are winnable vs SC, Miss St., and Vandy, and do not play Alabama,Auburn, or LSU. They have their best team, and easiest schedule. Last year opened as poorly as it could have, with losses to S.Miss and Florida, but more disturbing was giving up 40+ in their first 3 games, with 2 opponents being S. Miss and N. Nexico St. They certainly got things turned around finishing the regular season 7-3 in their last 10 regular season games, and a win at Louisville to cap it off. Just 1 opponent scored 40+ the rest of the way. S. Miss loses one of their best QB's all-time, from an offense that eroded 7ppg from the previous year. Their top 15 defense from a year ago returns just 4 starters. Ken Howard will take over the offense, but a 44% completion rate, and 4 INT's vs ODU, and N. Texas a year ago, is great cause for concern. The offensive line is being rebuilt with JUCO's and freshman, so a questionable QB, with a new OL is highly suspect. Kentucky has revenge, and the goods to get it done. Make the play on Kentucky.

Utah St. has had a lot of recent success, having gone to a Bowl game in 6 straight seasons. That all came tumbling down last year when they finished 3-9. While the 3-9 finish was disappointing, they were not so far away from a different outcome, as they lost 5 conference games by a grand total of 29 points. Not many 3-9 teams finish the season having been out-scored by opponents by just 5.4ppg, but that was the Aggies fate a year ago. This team always seems to run the ball well (2000+ yards in 8 straight seasons), but with a new DC, promising to open the field, they may have a different look. Wisconsin should be good defensively, the question is, how will the offense be? QB Alex Hornibrook threw just 9 TD's and 7 INT's a year ago, and the running game is going to have a whole new look. The talent is there, but it may take a few games to show itself, and think the number is way too high here. Make the play on Utah St.

Friday September 1st, 2017

The South Florida Bulls had their best season ever a year ago, one which ended with a Bowl win over an SEC school in South Carolina. That led to the coach moving on to a P5 school, replaced by Charlie Strong. That means a new system on both sides of the ball, and having to travel 3000 miles or their opener, is not easy. The offense averaged over 42ppg a year ago, and scored 30 r more in every game. The problem was the defense. Despite such a high powered offense, the Bulls did not win any of their last 8 games by more than 20 points. San Jose is an interesting opponent. Mainly because OC Andrew Sowder, was a coach at Texas under Charlie Strong, now the coach at USF. His OC followed him to USF from Texas as well in Sterlin Gilbert. That means Sowder knows the lay of the land when it comes to the Strong coached, and Gilbert run offense of the Bulls. Sowder also coached under two powerful offensive minds at Bowling Green, under Dino Babers, and Baylor, under Art Briles. I think ther is a huge talent differential here, but a huge coaching edge on both sides of the ball for San Jose St. Points are simply too high here, make the ply on San Jose St.

I took the top 11 SB`s in regards to the distance from the best offense, to the best defense. Here is an example:

The greatest disparity ever was the 2014 SB as Denver averaged 37.9ppg and the Seattle defense allowed 14.4ppg, the difference, or disparity is:

37.9 - 14.4 = 23.5ppg

I wanted to see how the big offenses, when playing with a huge gap regarding points allowed by the defense in the SB.

The 11 games showed the following results:

The defensive team won 9 times the offensive team 2 times. What is even more clear is the fact that the 2 times the offensive teams won, it wasn`t because of their offense.

1971 DALLAS 24 MIAMI 3 :

Dallas averaged 29ppg the Miami defense allowed 12.4ppg a difference of 16.6ppg, ranked #6 of all SB`s

1968 NY JETS 16 BALTIMORE 7:

Jets averaged 29.9ppg Baltimore allowed 13.4ppg a difference of 16.5ppg

All offensive teams in the 11 games averaged just 14.64ppg in the SB, and allowed 27ppg. Even in the 2 wins they averaged just 20ppg. The 9 losses saw them average 13.44ppg.

So then I looked at the composite game stats of all 11 games. It wasn`t that these teams were stopped from moving the ball, they averaged 388 yards per game. The reason why they lost, was for 3 reasons:

1) Could not convert in the red-zone vs the good defenses

2) Their defense could not stop the opponents offense (27ppg)

3) As expected TURNOVERS

despite most of these big offenses having Hall of Fame caliber QB`s, that did not turn the ball over, they did so in the SB vs the top defenses. A total of 31 turnovers in the 11 games. That is an average of almost 3. Likewise, in the 2 games they won, they forced 8 total turnovers! despite the 8 opponent turnovers, they only averaged 20ppg, so they could not crack the end-zone with or without them. Opponents meanwhile cashed in 51 points in their 9 wins on defensive/special teams scores, or 5.7ppg.

Remember, this is just an 11 game sample, but the disparity in this game is Atlanta offense 33.8ppg NE defense 15.6 or a disparity rating of 18.2ppg.

Many make the mistake at looking at defense/offense as yards gained. That does not matter, it is points that matter. Bill Belichick said in a recent interview, I don`t care how many yards we give up, I care about how many points we give up. The fact is these 11 teams averaged nearly 400 yards a game, but scored 14.64ppg.

No team since 1971 (and there have been 9 games), have cracked the win column with a big offense vs a big defense based on the disparity between them.

The most points in the 11 games a top offense has scored in these games is 24, and only 3 got past 17.

This doesn`t mean NE is going to win, but history is on their side in this report.

IT IS JUST 1 GAME, anything can happen! What we do to make a wager, is decide what is more likely vs what is least likely to occur, and if we are any good at doing it, every 20 games or so we will get 1 more right than the expected 10 from 20 picks. Sounds easy, but what that means, and this is where most fail, if you make just 1 pick out of every 20, just to chase, just to get action, just because the game is on TV, just because of anything other than following disciplined handicapping principles, YOU LOSE! The 1 game in 20 edge is destroyed. That is why most don`t win. if you bet 1.5x on 1 game, because it is someone`s game of the year, and it loses, or you bet 2,3,5 times more, YOUR DEAD!

There is an extreme hype regarding the Atlanta offense. Consider this:

Atlanta 33.8ppg
NE 30.0ppg (with Brady)

Atlanta 415 yds/game
NE 400 yds/game (with Brady)

What I am seeing and hearing is how elite the Atlanta offense is, which is certainly true, but the NE offense is right there with them.

The big difference is on the other side of the ball. Even if many think the Atlanta defense is under-rated, and on the improve, they have given up 24ppg in their last 3, hardly a stellar unit.

Many are also forgetting that Atlanta has the #32 rated red-zone defense. Dead last in the league.

I`ve said it many times, this is just 1 game, but have to go with NE in this one.

Sunday January 22nd, 2017

Since October 19, 2015 the Kansas City Chiefs are an unbelievable 23-5. That is the best record of any NFL team over the last 28 games. They have out-gained their opponents less than half the time, just 13 times total, including just 5 times this season, despite generating 12 wins. The Steelers over the same period have out-gained their opponent 21 times, which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chiefs are doing it with smoke and mirrors. They have had 18 games of the 28 played with an average turnover margin of 2.6, and they are 17-1 SU in these games, and 15-3 ATS. They are 2-8 ATS when the turnover margin is 0 or negative. Since a good percentage of turnovers are random, they are being over-valued here. Turnovers have been directly responsible for 3.5 points per game for the Chiefs this season, and the probability of them having a turnover advantage in this game is 50-50. The Chiefs are the worst 12 win team in NFL history from the line of scrimmage, as their opponents have out-gained them by 26 total yards a game. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 32 from the line of scrimmage and even better than that when they have Brown, Big Ben, and Bell all in the game. There is no telling if their will be a regression to the mean in this particular game for KC, but the line, their 12 wins, and hosting here, are based on numbers that are a lot uglier than the line, so all things being equal, the Steelers have the better team, on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

 Dallas crushed GB at Lambeau 30-16. It would be easy to take away from that...the better team is by far Dallas. Green Bay over the last 7 games, is statistically the best team in the NFL. They have beaten more teams in the playoffs than any other team (7-2).

Green Bay had an 0-4 stretch, ouch! Looking back on those 4 games they had up to 10 starters out! Otherwise this team is 11-2, and even those 13 games were injury laden, as this one will be as well.

I made the statement that GB is the best team in the NFL the last 7 weeks...statistically, here are those numbers:

OFFENSE:

Rushing yards per attempt 4.3
Passing yards per attempt 6.8
Yards per play 5.57

The Packers are 0.75 yards per play better than their opponents in the 7 games. They accomplished the hat trick during the 7 games, scoring 38 points in all 3 games vs arguably the top 3 defenses in the NFL, Minnesota, Seattle, NY Giants. Rodgers has thrown 22 TD`s to 0 INT`s, and has been the best QB in the league for years, and is playing at an all-time high level right now.

There are concerns. GB has lost so many CB`s to injury, they are vulnerable, on the sidelines, when they don`t have safety help over the top. This will be concerning, because if they try to play a 2-deep, Prescott is going to change the play at the line of scrimmage, and a heavy dose of Elliott will be a problem with not enough in the box to contain him. The Packers are going to have to pick their poison, Elliott or Prescott going long on the outside. They have done well in the last 7 games in this regard, but Dallas is a bigger challenge.

The assumption is that Prescott will be Prescott, most likely he will be, but this is his 1st playoff game, so until he gets settled into the game, it is a wait and see, there is a small chance he implodes. I`m sure GB is going to try and put a lot of heat on him early to test him.

Not only has GB won the line of scrimmage in their 7-0 run, they are 16 in turnover margin, and have played 5 straight clean games (0 turnovers), and just 1 turnover in their last 7. They are the 2nd team since division realignment to come into a playoff game with 0 turnovers in 5 straight games, the other was SF in 2011, who won and covered, winning the turnover battle. I have GB qualifying in a turnover situation that is 38-4 ATS. teams that enter week 19 with some mojo, a streak of 2-7 wins, are 27-9 ATS if they are not a 10 point dog.

week 19 teams that allowed less tan 20 points in their last game, playing to a line of less than 9, vs an opponent that scored less than 35pts in their last game are 23-5 ATS, and a perfect 21-0 ATS if the total is less than 43 or the total is greater than 45.5. That 21-0 ATS situation shows the worst loss a team has suffered was by 7 points, and just 3 by more than 5 points!

Week 19 home favorites from -4 to -9 are 6-18 ATS since 2006. In the end, like always, this is just 1 game, anything can happen. You do your bes, do your homework, and come out with an opinion. I happen to like GB here.

This is a game of contrasts, that brings the NFL's best offense up against the NFL's best defense over the last 5 years. The Seahawks won in Seattle 26-24, but a no-call on Richard Sherman against Julio Jones was highly contested, and Seattle took the win. Those things tend to stick with teams, and this time Atlanta gets Seattle at home. There is a stark contrast with this Seattle team playing at home vs on the road, in fact it is staggering. They averaged 28.1ppg at home, and just 15.9ppg on the road, and 3 times on the road scored  6 points or less. Seattle has a problem with their offensive line, and Russell Wilson who used to bailout the offense with his legs, has been dealing with injuries all season, and is at a career low in carries, yards, and yards per attempt. he has also had the worst passer rating of his NFL career, and thrown more INT's than any previous year. The Seattle defense is still very good, but no longer elite. The loss of Earl Thomas really hurt. Since that injury the Seahawks have given up 38 to Green Bay, 34 to Arizona, and 23 to lowly SF. Matty Ice has had his best year in Atlanta. The Falcons have gone for 33 or more points in 11 of 16 games, and the Atlanta offense vs the Seattle defense, is much further apart than the Atlanta defense vs the Seattle offense. The Seattle pass defense is now average allowing 6.7 yards per attempt to teams that average 6.6, and now worse without Thomas. Atlanta should be able to score plenty in this game, and they are a combined 1 yard per play better than the Seahawks, and the line is not reflective of it. Make the play on Atlanta.

Top Side Play · [151] Clemson Tigers                 +7    -112
    Mon Jan 9th, 2017 8:00pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

The Detroit Lions were 9-4, and all they had to do was win one of their last 3 games to clinch the NFC North and they failed to do so. That means they are on the road to open the playoffs against the Seattle Seahawks, a very dangerous home team. The Lions have been 0-3 since Matthew Stafford dislocated a finger on his throwing hand. The Lions have the ugliest history of any NFL team playing out west, as they are a brutal 1-19 SU and 2-18 ATS combined vs the AFC West, and the NFC West. They have lost these games by an average score of 29.7 to 15.7, or 14ppg. The Lions had a patsy schedule and finished the regular season 0-5 SU vs teams that have made the playoffs. They also fit a horrible profile, as teams that are not fumble prone, and average less than 0.4 lost fumbles a game, are not favored by 4 or more points, to a total of less than 47, are 0-10 ATS in the playoffs. Seattle is 17-1-1 ATS on turf as a favorite, if they threw for 282 or more yards in their last game. Finally, week 18 home favorites of -8 or more are 9-0 SU/ATS, winning by an average score of 30-12. Make the play on Seattle.

It was going to be impossible for Iowa to duplicate last season, but they did have a respectable season at 8-4, and had a huge win over Michigan. The issue this season has been the lack of much offense. The Hawkeyes 4 biggest games against Minnesota,Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn St. saw them score a total of 51 points, and they are going to be hard pressed to move the ball against Florida. Florida has 11 players, mostly on defense that are dealing with injuries, but the 3+ weeks off will get a lot of those players on the field. Florida gets this game in Tampa, and will have a big share of the crowd behind them. Florida held 8 teams to 10 or less points this season, and I don't see Iowa doing much offensively here. Iowa is in a bad spot historically for this Bowl game, one that is 13-44 ATS. Make the play on Florida.

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Denver

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Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

San Diego                              

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Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

San Francisco                              

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Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

LA Rams                             

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Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Washington                             

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Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

CINN                              

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Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Miami

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Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Philadelphia                           

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Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

NY Jets                              

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Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Tennessee