Sports Picks & Predictions

We are beginning to learn that the Pac-12 is not as good as people expected. They are 1-6 SU so far, and as I am writing this at halftime, USC is getting manhandled by Ohio St. The Big-10 is 4-0 so far, and Ohio St. has a big lead at the half, so likely 5-0. Penn St. is 4 points from perfect on the season, suffering a 1 point loss to Ohio St., and a 3 point loss to Michigan St. They are the closest P5 team to having a perfect season, missing by 4 points. What that means is this team has been consistent all season. Washington lost just 2 games, but did not have to face USC, and their out of conference schedule was weak. The Pac-12 is obviously over-rated, and I will ride with Penn St. who is 11-2 ATS since 1980 in Bowl games from +1 to any size favorite. 

Memphis averaged 47.7ppg on the season. They were one of the most dominating and potent offenses in the FBS. I`m not so sure of that. The AAC had no team with much of a defense at all. Including Memphis, the AAC had 5 teams that averaged #121 or worse in yards allowed per game, and Memphis played all of the other 4. Additionally Memphis went against UCL! #123, and UL Monroe #129, and S. Illinois, an FCS team. If you add S. Illinois to the list of opponents, the Tigers offense out of 130 FBS teams faced:

#130
#129
#128
#127
#123
#122
Plus S. Illinois of the FCS

That is most of their schedule against the 7 worst defenses in the country! They also faced #100 Tulane, #94 C. Fla (2), #95 Cincinnati, and #89 Houston. There isn`t a team in that mix above top 2/3 of all teams. Iowa St. is very familiar with big offenses in the Big-12, and despite of that, finished ranked #45. This will by far be the toughest test for Memphis yet, not even close, and they may have some issues with a resistance they have not seen all year. Iowa St. has had the upset mind all season, may add another here. Make the play on Iowa St.

Lost in the Louisville disappointing season was the fact that Lamar Jackson had a better season than last year when he won the Heisman Trophy. What Louisville could not overcome was a horrific defense that allowed 27.1ppg. Louisville was at one time just 5-4 before closing the season with 3 straight wins and covers, but against much lesser opponents than they will face today. Louisville did not beat a single opponent that finished the season with 8 or more wins. The defense was not only bad, they will not have the services of their top 2 defenders in DB Jaire Alexander, and pass rusher James Hearn. This just further weakens an already bad defense. Freshman Kaytaon Thompson did a decent job in relief after Fitzgerald was injured vs Ole Miss, and he has had 5 weeks taking all the snaps, and is said to look very good. He is also a runner, and I don't think the Miss St. offense is going to suffer a decline, especially with a poor Louisville defense. Miss St. has given up just 31 to Georgia, and Alabama, and I think they could win this game if they hold Louisville to that. Louisville apples to a 29-70 ATS Bowl system based in part by their 3 straight ATS wins coming into their Bowl game. Make the play on Miss St.

The Cotton Bowl will host the biggest Bowl of the season thus far as 11-2 Ohio St. squares off with 11-2 USC. Ohio St. is equal to both Alabama, and Georgia from the line of scrimmage this season. All 3 teams are +2.9 yards per play better than the average of all their opponents. USC is not even close. What kept Ohio St. out of the playoffs is the dud they threw up at Iowa. USC may have been in the conversation, if they did not throw up a dud at Notre Dame. While Ohio St. has a tremendous statistical advantage here, they have made costly mistakes, that have held them down. Against Oklahoma, Penn St., Iowa, Mich St., and Wisconsin they out-gained the 5 toughest opponents by 6.4 to 5 yards per play. If you take out the Iowa debacle, it is significantly more than that. I can't justify not playing them here with such a decided advantage in the trenches. USC has the offense to score some her, but their defense is simply not equipped to stop Ohio St. Sam Darnold seems to be back in control, but he has not hurt anyone with his legs this year, as he did a year ago. J.T. Barrett has 9000+ passing yards, and 3000+ rushing yards, and a boatload of experience. Urban Meyer in playoff games, championship games, and Bowl games is 14-5 ATS, including 11-2 ATS when his team is better than .750 but less than unbeaten. The only 2 failed covers have come vs Clemson, 11-0 ATS vs anyone else. Make the play on Ohio St.

The 7-5 Kentucky Wildcats will take on the surging 9-3 Northwestern Wildcats in the Music City Bowl in Nashville,TN. Kentucky with an 8th win could match the most wins by any Kentucky team since at least 1979. Nashville is just 3 hours from campus, and the previous 4 times they have played here, it was a sellout, they will have huge fan support. Northwestern has been on fire, winning and covering 7 straight games, but that just fuels line value on the other side. Teams that have covered 4 straight or more heading into their Bowl game, are just 58-90 ATS, and Northwestern falls into a 3-23 ATS subset of this situation, winning just 6 of the 26 outright! Make the play on Kentucky.

The Arizona St. Sun Devils at 7-5 on the season will take on the 8-4 NC State Wolf Pack in the Sun Bol in El Paso,TX. Should be perfect football weather with a game time temperature expected around 68 with a light breeze. The Wolf pack has a high ceiling to their 'A" game, beating Louisville, and scoring 31 vs Clemson, generating nearly 500 yards, holding a lead late into the 3rd quarter. NC State has become QB-U, as the Pack has 4 QB's in the NFL, and if Jr. Ryan Finley declares for the draft, they will soon have 5. The Sun Devils have struggled offensively vs the better defenses on their schedule, as vs Stanford, USC, SD St., Utah, an Washington they averaged just 20.4ppg, and close to 40ppg vs everyone else. NC State is an above average defense, and would expect them to hold the Sun Devils below their season average, while NC State scores above theirs. NC State also fits a 120-69 ATS Bowl situation here. Make the play on NC State.

Wake Forest has won 7 games or more now, each of the past 2 seasons for the first time in 8 years. They own wins vs Louisville and NC State this season. The offense is as good as we have seen here in years averaging 33.6ppg. Texas A&M comes in at 7-5 lacking a signature win on the season, beating Nichols St., LA Lafayette, Arkansas, SC, Florida, N. Mexico, and Ole Miss, and was over-matched vs every good team on their schedule. despite only having 4 road games all season. The Aggies allowed 40+ in 4 games on the season. Wake Forest will have the crowd behind them here, as they will be playing just a 90 minute drive from campus. A&M in the midst of a coaching change, and it will be a challenge getting this team motivated. A&M is in a poor 94-128 ATS Bowl situation as well. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Luke Falk has been one of the best college QB's in history. The numbers this season are not nearly as good as what they have been, as yards per attempt is down, TD passes down, and INT's are up. Perhaps most revealing is the breakdown. Falk dominated the poor teams on the schedule, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon St. and Montana St. In those 6 games he threw 20 TDs and o INT's. Th other 6 games vs Boise St., USC, Arizona, Stanford, Utah, Washington he threw 10 TDs to 13 INT's, hardly numbers warranted by a star QB. Michigan St has a very strong defense, and Falk will be missing his 2 top WRs both suspended. Michigan St. held 7 opponents to 14 or less on the season, and should score enough here for the win. Make the play o Michigan St.

There is one hidden factor in this game, and that is the real power of the TCU defense. They got ripped apart by the elite offensive teams they faced this season. The 5 teams they faced that averaged from 34.5ppg to 46.2ppg. averaged 34ppg against them. That being said all 5 of those teams scored below their season average by about a TD per game. The 8 other games they played, not including a shutout vs a FCS team, the Frogs held opponents averaging 18.7 to 34.3ppg to 7.4ppg! Stanford would qualify to be in this group. These teams averaged 20ppg less than their average, and 5 of them scored 7 or less. Make the play on TCU.

The last 13 Bowl teams that came into their Bowl game allowing 30 or more points per game are 0-11-2 ATS. Teams that average over 40 points a game are 72-94-1 ATS as well, and average scoring just 30ppg. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Sometimes you need to watch what you say, or like in a court of law, it can, and will be used against you. Long time Athletic Director at Texas, now special assistant to the President, said the following:

" Our bad years are not that bad, take a school like Missouri, our bad years, are better than their good years."

Bowls are in large part about motivation, and you can be sure the Tigers are going to be bringing a little extra to this contest. This is a changed Missouri team, one that started 0-5 vs FBS schools and ended 6-0. The 6 game streak saw them go from getting outscored 42-18 to finishing the last 6 out-scoring opponents 52-21. It is the biggest such turn around in NCAA Football history, 1st half of the season to 2nd. That equals 55 ppg. WOW! Texas has a good defense, but looking back at Missouri's game with Gorgia, before they got hot they put 28 on Georgia, who is much better than Texas defensively. The Tigers have won and covered 3 straight Bowls. Texas is 9-18 ATS in their last 27 Bowl games (1-5 vs a team with 7 or less wins). This will be just the 4th of those 27 Bowls played prior to 12/28, meaning this is a fringe Bowl for this type of team. SEC favorites of -3.5 or less are 23-8 ATS in Bowls (11-1 ATS last 12). The SEC has dominated the B-12 Conference at 17-4 ATS in Bowl games, and an active 16-1 ATS subset. Make the play on Missouri.

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

Boston College fans should appear in large numbers, as they are just 3 hours away from NY City, at Yankee Stadium. This game is the furthest north played outside of all Bowl games, and whoever runs the ball better is likely going to be the winner. Game time temperature around 20 degrees, with windchill about 10, dropping during the game, and we could see wind chill values at or below 0 before the game is over. BC was a different team once they started to hand the ball off to A.J. Dillon. Through 6 games, BC averaged a paltry 16.3ppg, as Dillon carried 89 times for just 333 yards, at 3.7 per carry, and BC was 2-4. The last 6, Dillon carried 179 times for 1091 yards at 6.1 yards per tote, and BC scored 36ppg, going 5-1. Despite the running heroics, it helped BC keep balanced, as it opened up the passing game, and they finished with 23 rushing TD's and 24 passing TD's. The BC offensive line is the best unit on the field. They allowed just 13 sacks, and were penalized just 11 times all season, and that is the difference maker. Iowa finished 11th in the B-10 rushing, not a good sign for this type a game. Kirk Ferentz has been around a long time, but he has lost 5 straight Bowl games by 7,17,17,27 and 29 points, so he seems to use them more for looking ahead to the next season instead of winning. The ACC is 41-24-3 ATS in Bowl games from -1.5 to +5 including 27-11-1 ATS vs P5 opponents. Make the play on BC.

The Florida St. Seminoles were supposed to be in the running for a National Championship. How things have changed. The Seminoles lost QB DeAndre Francois in game 1, suffered through a myriad of injuries, and now have lost their coach as well, and at 6-6, on the line is their 40th consecutive winning season. It took wins vs LA Monroe, and Delaware St. to secure a Bowl bid. The Noles have beaten just 1 other team  by a margin big enough to cover this one. Slorida St. is 19-6 ATS in their Bowl game if favored by less than -7, and 4-5-1 ATS otherwise, and tends to under-achieve as a big favorite. Southern Miss represents themselves well here, as this is their 21st Bowl game since 1980, and lost just 1 by 17 points, all others covered this number. C-USA Bowl dogs of +7 or more are 15-7 ATS as well. Florida St. in a 1-19 ATS situation here. Make the play on Southern Miss.

Duke Coach David Cutliffe has done a remarkable job at Duke. he has coached in 9 Bowl games (some at Ole Miss), and his team's have been a well prepared 7-2 ATS. N. Illinois has limited offense, and are not a good come from behind team. Duke started the season at 4-0, but lost 6 straight, and rebounded with a pair of wins in their last 2 games to finish 6-6 at get here. The MAC Conference has laid an egg vs P5 teams in a Bowl game (including the Big East), when getting less than +7. The MAC in this spot is 0-10 ATS and failing to cover by 10ppg. make the play on Duke.

When the Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl in 43-8 in the 2013-14 season, the young talent on both sides of the ball had many suggesting they would be winning a lot more. They have not won one since, and the evidence is mounting that this team is starting to erode year by year. A quick look shows in 21013, when the won the Super Bowl the derfense allowed 14.3ppg, here is what has followed:

2014    16.9

2015    17.6

2016    18.6

2016    21.0

It isn't just the defense, the offense that averaged 26.6, 25.1, and 5.4 from 2013-15, has averaged 22.2, and 22.9 the last 2 years. All together this team has eroded by 7ppg defensively, and 3.7ppg offensively, or a combined 10.7ppg. They are still a good team, and injuries have held this team back some. A perspective would be the fact that this team allowed 30+ points in a game just 4 times form 2011-13 and 5 times in their last 8 weeks this season. The last one, 42 at home, sets them up in a brutal situation today. A team that allowed 42 points their last game, and is now playing as a road dog vs a team on a 2 or more game winning streak is 1-41 SU, and 8-34 ATS. Make the play on Dallas.

The Tennessee Titans have lost 2 straight games, and while the optics are not there for this team right now, they still control their own playoff destiny, no worse than a wild card winning their final 2 games. The optics were different just 2 weeks ago when they were 8-4. The NFL is like the stock market, buy low, and sell high. The issue for this team as I see it, is the offense is better running the no-huddle, and it wasn't until they got behind, that they trended toward it. The game plan this week will no doubt include more. The Titans are a different team at home where they have beaten Baltimore, and Seattle, and won 5 straight. LA is coming off of 2 hugely physical and emotional games vs Philadelphia, and last week at Seattle. Their 42-7 pounding of Seattle holding them to 149 total yards has a lot to do with the over-lay here. Week 16 home dogs with a total of greater than 37 are 72-36 ATS. Make the play on Tennessee.

The New York Jets have thrown up a pair of duds the last 2 weeks, vs Denver and New Orleans. That is not much of a surprise, as New York has a lonely 1 win on the road this season, vs 0-15 Cleveland. they have been a much better team at home, and to a tough schedule of opponents. The jets beat Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Kansas City here, and lost to New England, Atlanta, and Carolina all by 1 possession. I certainly think they will hold their own here vs the Chargers. LA started 0-4, and had little margin for error to sniff the post-season, and last week's loss at Kansas City has left those hopes on life support. jets fit many good situations here as well. Make the play on the New York jets.

NFL SURFACE AND VENUE CHANGES NOT A HEALTHY BET:

A lot has been searched and written regarding changing surfaces in the NFL. While nothing I have read has shown any major advantage or disadvantage, I happen to disagree, when all the right elements are applied. Today in the newsletter we will explore what happens to a significant road favorite, changing venues (home), and now away and going from an artificial surface to grass, things often do not work out as they are expected.

THE PARAMETERS:

1) Play against team going from artificial home surface to grass road surface

2) Play against team is a road favorite of -7 or more.

Believe it or not, that is it!

These teams have stumbled greatly going:

33-55-3 ATS covering just 37.5% of all games. 

When you consider week 16 is the home dog week in the NFL: 78-55-7 ATS 58.6%, and this system is 1-8 ATS in week 16


This all rides unfavorably against Minnesota this afternoon. 

Make the play on Green Bay

A Bowl team coming off a prolific offensive game heading into their Bowl game have been awful teams to bet on. The Appalachian St. Mountaineers put up 63 in their final regular season game. Bowl teams that scored 60 or more in their last game, are 13-30 ATS in their Bowl game, including 0-13 ATS most recently. make the play on Toledo.

The Army is 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 games played in Texas, and will be looking for the big sweep this season. They have won the Commander and Chief trophy for the first time since 1996, beat Navy, and the hat-trick would be to win their Bowl Game. Military teams are tough to prepare for running the flex-bone, and in a Bowl game that seems to be doubled-down, as Military schools are 30-14 ATS in Bowls since 1980, as well as 19-3 ATS when facing a team better than .600. Make the play on Army.

Bowl teams that enter their Bowl game with 2 losses, and one of those losses was in their last game, often get mistaken for a disappointed team. After all, a 1 loss team would likely be playing in a major Bowl, and having lost their last game, the Bowl is obviously much less. That has not been the case, as all Bowl teams with 2 losses, with one of those losses occurring in their last game, and facing an opponent off a win are 17-1-1 ATS. Make the play on S. Florida.

There is probably no better story in NCAAF this season than UAB. The Blazers put an end to their football program after the 2014 season, but started it up again this season. They were projected for 2.5 wins, and finished with 8. This team has over-achieved all season, and have a chance to win the school's first Bowl game. The Blazers come in owning 4 SU wins as a dog of an average of +8 points per game. Ohio, U. is a well coached team under Frank Solich, but he has not had much success in Bowl games, at just 2-8 SU in his last 10, dropping 3 of 5 SU as a favorite. The Bobcats dropped their last 2 games of the season after upseting Toledo, ad will have a chore filling holes in their defensive line, as 3 starters are out. They will also be missing their top RB in A.J. Ouellette, who has been downgraded to doubtful. Make the play on UAB.

ST.PETERSBURG BOWL - Tropicana Field - St.Petersburg, FL

The Temple Owls will take on the Florida International Panthers tonight in the St. Petersburg Bowl. I'm not sure what Temple has done this season to have them posted as a TD favorite, or what Florida International hasn't done. Temple barely made it here at 6-6, and their 6 wins came at the hands of opponents that combined to finish the season with 19 total wins. Translation: No wins vs a winning team. Temple changed QB's to better results, but deceptive at the same time because they beat no one of significance. Florida International is in Miami, or about 250 miles from St. Petersburg, so this will be a defacto home game for the Panthers as well. The Panthers were 8-4 on the season, and have a much better QB, and with 19 seiors on this team, they will be playing hard. Temple is off a couple of big seasons, and playing FIU in a Bowl game is not exactly motivational. last night we watched a C-USA team beat a pretty good AAC team 52-10. Since the AAC was formed, its teams that made a Bowl game are 7-16 SU/9-14 ATS, and 0-5 SU vs C-USA. AAC Bowl teams with 8 wins or less are 1-8 SU in Bowl games, 3-6 ATS. FIU fits a Bowl situation that is 55-25 ATS here as well. Make the play on FIU.

If you watched the MNF game between the Patriots and the Dolphins, Miami looked like a playoff caliber team, and New England looked like a poor team. Well, there must be something in the water in Miami, as the Dolphins have beaten New England here 12 of the last 20 times, including 4 of the last 5. As Belichick would say, onto Pittsburgh. Unlike Miami, the Pats are 6-2 SU in their last 8 trips to the Steel City, and 6-2 ATS as well. It is never easy playing against the patriots to begin with, but facing them off a loss, is quite frankly impossible. Since the start of the 2002 season, when the Brady & Belichick combo was getting entrenched here, the Pats are 35-13-1 ATS off a loss, and a ridiculous 21-0-1 ATS off a loss facing an elite team (better than .570), if they were less than a -7 point favorite. The Pats will show up big here, knowing the loss to Miami is meaningless if they win here, as they will once again control their own destiny for home field advantage through the AFC Championship game. Brady is 8-2 in his last 10 vs Pittsburgh with a 117.2 passer rating, burning the not-so-steel curtain for 26 TD passes and just 3 INT's, and 32ppg. My NFL December Game of the Year is on New England.

The Minnesota Vikings knew their defense was going to be good, but the surprise has been the offense. The offense has averaged just shy of 24ppg on the season. Case Keenum has had a lot to do with that as he has had a breakout season. The defense has allowed less than 20 points in 9 of their 13 games. Cincinnati has to be out of will. The Bengals were a playoff team the last 5 years, but you could see the will was gone after blowing a lead vs Pittsburgh 2 weeks ago, as they were a no show at Chicago last week in a 33-7 loss. The Vikings are a cover machine at home, where they are now 33-13 ATS in their last 46, and overall this team is 40-15-1 ATS in their last 56 games. They are also in a great situation as from week 13 on, a home favorite of -10 to -17, facing a team with a winning percentage of less than .630 are 125-70-2 in the last 197 instances. Make the play on Minnesota.

If you look at this game on paper the Giants should get blown out. The fact is this is an ultra strong NFL Contrarian Special. Conference games from week 6 out, since the start of the 2000 season, that feature a team with a scoring margin edge of 20 or more (Phila 11.8/NYG -9.4 = 21.2), to a line of less than -14.5 and their opponent is on 6 days rest or less, are 7-51 ATS. Play on the NY Giants.

The San Diego Chargers have completely turned their season around. After a punishing 0-4 start, they have been 7-2 over their last 9 games, and have a big division game in Kansas City this week. The Chargers have now become an over-valued team, and have no business being a slight favorite in Kansas City. Kansas City has become under-valued, as they started 5-0 but have been 2-6 since. It has been a simple equation for the Chargers, turn the opponent over and win, don't do it and lose. The Chargers are 0-4 SU/ATS when they force 0 turnovers and 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS when they force at least 1, lately they are 17-4 on turnovers, which likely won't continue. The Chiefs don't turn the ball over much (7 clean games, 4 games with just 1). Kansas City is also a great team in the role of a home dog logging a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark as a home dog from week 6 on if both they and their opponent are off a win. The Chargers fit the profile of a team in a bad situation, as from game 8 on a team that is on the road and 1 game over .500 against a .500 or better team are just 62-100 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders at 6-6 will take on the 7-4 Arkansas St. Red Wolves in Montgomery, Alabama. Every team looks for a motivational edge in a Bowl game and I think Middle Tennessee may have a score to settle. These teams last faced each other, both members of the Sun Belt Conference, and Arkansas St. beat MTSU 45-0. They have a chance for redemption here. teams that were shutout the last time they met their Bowl opponent, and it wasn't the current season, the shutout team is 5-1 ATS winning outright by an average of 8ppg as an average +5 dog. MTSU is under-valued here, as they come in as the only C-USA team to have played 3 power-5 conference opponents, giving them a significant strength of schedule advantage, and upset Syracuse. This is a team that saw their highly sought QB miss 6 games, a talented WR missing significant time, and overall lost 125 player games to injury. They had just 4 players play and start every game. The rest is significant, as they will have just 3 players on the injury report. Another major edge is having played their last 2 Bowl games in Hawaii, and Bahamas, they get this one just 300 miles from campus and should have a crowd edge. They also have a significant situational edge here for this one. Bowl teams, .500 or worse, facing a team better than .500 as a dog from +2 to +10.5 in a December Bowl are 33-8 ATS, and on a recent tear, having gone 18-3 ATS in their last 21. Generally speaking a Bowl team with 6 wins, has the added incentive to use the Bowl game to complete the season with a winning record, and when facing a team with more than 6 wins, they are 68-42 ATS. It also assures their opponent isn't very excited to play a 6-6 team. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The post-season is no longer in the offing for Denver or Indianapolis, so tonight's game will be for pride. Indianapolis is off a brutal bad weather game, in which 6" of snow fell during the game. The passing and kicking games were muted by the weather. This week Indianapolis is back at home under the dome, but not in a good spot. Thursday Night teams off an overtime game vs a team that did not play overtime last week are a brutal 3-21 ATS. That includes 1-16 ATS in the last 17, and 0-13 ATS if not a +4.5 under dog or more. Denver completely manhandled the NY Jets last week, shutting them out 23-0 and limiting them to 100 yards of total offense, and just 6 first downs. A team that allowed 7 or less 1st downs in their last game are 43-16 ATS in their next one, and Thursday favorites are 120-87-7 ATS, as the better team seems to have more to prepare for a short week. Make the play on Denver.

This is one of my favorite games of the year. I love the tradition, and make a point to watch it every year. The Army has become a lot more competitive the last few years. 

Here is an eye opener since 1980:

When Army comes in averaging less than 24.7ppg    5-15 ATS including 1-13 ATS as long as they are not a dog of more than 14 points

When Army comes in averaging more than 24.7ppg   10-6 ATS including 8-1 if competitive game from -6 to +7

Additionally, the team with more rest than their opponent is 8-2 ATS last 10. Make the play on Army.

The New Orleans and the Atlanta Falcons will meet twice in the next 3 weeks, so the Falcons playoff chances will for a large part, be determined in the two games. Atlanta had an unstoppable offense a year ago, when everything went right. This year, it has not nearly been the same. Atlanta's offense has regressed 11.3ppg year-over-year. Matt Ryan has already thrown more interceptions this year than last, and the yards per attempt have gone from 9.4 to 7.8. New Orleans has been on a roll, and the running game has been unstoppable, which has Drew Brees in a much better place. Brees has the luxary of passing for balance vs necessity, and the numbers show it. Last year Brees threw 15 INT's, this year just 5. His yards per attempt are up to 8.1. While the Saints offense is unchanged on the scoreboard over a year ago, the more ball control, has allowed the rebuilt defense time to breath, and they have shaved 9ppg off last year's total. Brees has excelled recently vs good, but not great defenses, those allowing 17.3 to 23.3 points per game. he is 23-14 ATS against them, scoring 28.9ppg, carrying a passer rating of 104.6. Falcons home field is not providing what it did last year, as they have lost 3 here already, two of which came to Buffalo, and Miami. The Saints after 3 straight 7-9 seasons, are 10-1 in their last 11, and building a Super Bowl resume, much the same as Atlanta did a year ago, and I think they add to that resume tonight. Make the play on New Orleans.

This is a big time match up between 10-1 Philadelphia, and 7-4 Seattle. The Eagles have become in most people's minds the best team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL, and why not. The Eagles have won 9 straight, and covered 8 of them. What gets over-looked is the fact that they have beaten 1 team that currently has a winning record, and that was by 5 points. Seattle may not be as potent as they once were, but at 7-4, they still have plenty of talent, and winning in Seattle is not an easy task. They are 42-8 SU here since the start of 2012, and none of those losses were by more than 7 points. Seattle is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog, winning 6 of the 9 straight up. Philadelphia has blown out their last 2 opponents, but in doing so, they set themselves up in a 3-23 ATS situation. Make the play on Seattle, and don't be surprised if they win outright.

 It isn`t to often the Denver Broncos have a season this poor. The worst season they have had since at least 1989 was the 4-12 team in 2010, and they enter this game at 3-8. Denver is 0-7 SU/ATS in their last 7 games, but it hasn`t been quite as bad as it looks. The Broncos have made 18 turnovers or 2.6 a contest, while forcing just 4. Those numbers have a way of turning around. The Dolphins defense, that allowed no more than 20 points in any of their first 5 games, has allowed 27 or more in each of their last 6, to an average of 34.2ppg. I think the Broncos get in the winning column this week as they apply to a 52-11 ATS situation. Make the play on Denver.

The MAC Championship game will be a complete mismatch as Akron takes on Toledo. Akron, from my records will be the worst team to ever make a conference championship game. The Zips posted just a 7-5 mark on the season, and are below average on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They don't have a RB that has gained even as much as 350 yards on the season, and their QB Thomas Woodson has not played in 3 games due to a suspension, but will be available. Toledo raced off to a 21-0 1st quarter lead in the first meeting this season, and won't take their foot off the gas in a Championship game. Championship mismatches are few, but when they have occurred, it has been utter devastation. A team favored in a Championship game by 21 points are more, being played at a neutral site are 5-0 SU/ATS winning by an average score of 49-6, and covering by 17.6ppg. Lay the bundle and make the play on Toledo.

The Dallas Cowboys have really looked brutally bad the last 3 weeks, as they have failed to reach the 10 point mark in any of the 3 games. It certainly has influenced the line here, and public opinion regarding their game vs Washington. They each own a 5-6 record coming into this, and no matter the outcome here, neither of these teams are likely to make the playoffs, as they have 8 teams in front of them, and 2 others also at 5-6. Even running the table, which seems unlikely for either of these teams, might not be enough. Washington has done nothing to deserve being a road favorite for this one.Remember this Dallas offense averaged 31.7ppg the 6 weeks prior to going cold. It isn't so much cold, as it has been the turnovers, as they have made 8 in the last 3 games. Many will point to the absence of Ezekiel Elliott as the cause of the Dallas offensive futility. That is not the case. Elliott has carried for 4.1 yds. per attempt this year, and the last 3 weeks Dallas has averaged 4.4. The bigger problem was the injury to Tyron Smith, as Atlanta and Philadelphia, a pair of elite teams, had 12 sacks in his absence, and last week, upon his return gave up just 2, and on the season averaging less than that. Look for the Dallas offense to come to life after playing elite teams in Philadelphia, Atlanta, and a surging Charger's team in their last 3. Washington has allowed 33 or more points to 4 of the last 6 teams they have faced, including 33 vs this same Dallas team, and they have issues of their own. Losing RB Chris Thompson hurts both the running game and the passing game. Dallas has been a perfect 8-0 ATS (7-1 SU), at home as a PK or dog since 1990 vs Washington, winning 7 straight up, and a combined margin of +12ppg. I look for that to continue tonight in this one. The public has turned badly against America's team, as 65% favor the Skins here, but a road favorite in a division game, that carries a lot of their own baggage and injuries here, is not something I'm interested in backing. Make the play on Dallas.

It is not too often you get a red-hot team and getting points at the same time, but thus is the case for the New Orleans Saints as they take on the LA Rams today. The Saints are not only winning, they have been more of a power run offense than ever, and that just makes Drew Brees more dangerous. The Saints have lost the turnover battle in 3 of their last 4 games, normally a death sentence, but have won them all. The Rams after racking up 117 points in 3 games, were completely shut down last week vs Minnesota. Overall I think the Saints are a more experienced and complete team right now. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Carolina Panthers have their playoff destination in their own hands. While the Cam Newton led offense has had its share of struggles, the defense continues to carry this team week in and week out. They are coming off their bye week, and that has given this team some well needed fresh legs, and a chance to work on some offense. The Panthers defense has been extremely good on the road, holding all 5 opponents to season low yards. The Jets come in at 4-6, and have seen each of their last 7 games decided by one=possession. I like Carolina coming off a bye, as good teams often benefit more when they are, and this game fits a 22-0-1 ATS situation, based in part on that. Make the play on Carolina.

This is a huge rivalry game, and a lot will be on the line for Clemson, who currently is in position to make another National Championship run. Dabo Swinney will seek his 100th win in Columbia in this game. Swinney's teams have lost just 29 total games, but 5 of those have come at the hands of the Gamecocks. Last year the Tigers mauled SC 56-7 so there is a huge payback on the line here. Clemson has not won at SC by more than 5 points since 2003, and are 0-5 ATS here in the last 5 meetings. This game fits a situation that is 55-14 ATS as well. Make the play on South Carolina.

The Iron Bowl is always a thrilling intense football teams that hate each other and do everything they have to do to come away with a win in this game. Coach Saban has never beaten an Auburn team with 9 or more wins, as he is 0-3 at Alabama, and was 0-3 at LSU, and 0-6 overall. The Tide are a great football team, but have really had an easy schedule to this point, and the tough teams they have played have stayed in the game with them home or away. Alabama is really banged up, and now thin at linebacker, and Auburn is going to deliver a punishing running game. Both these teams have elite defenses, but I think right now the Tide is vulnerable. Auburn beat then #1 Georgia easily, and has a chance to beat a #1 again. They will also get another shot at Georgia if they win here in the SEC Championship game. If they win out, they will be in with the resume they have put together, and I think they get the 2nd leg done in this one. Auburn fits a 73-31 ATS situation for this one as well, make the play on Auburn.

Central Connecticut St. has suspended their QB and key offensive lineman for today's FCS playoff game vs New Hampshire.

New Hampshire   -10   -110

The Missouri Tigers have reaslly struggled the past year or so, and opened the season with low expectations got off to a poor start and things were looking dark early. Then the light suddenly came on for this team which seems to show improvement every week. The Tigers have won 5 straight and are already Bowl eligible. Arkansas has had a tough season and at 4-7 there will be no Bowl, and not a whole lot to play for. I would not be surprised to see some young players getting a look here. Missouri isn't just winning they are destroying everything in their path, and the 5 straight wins have been by 177 points or 35.4ppg. Gonna ride this cash cow until someone slows them down. Make the play on Missouri.

The Naval Academy does a lot of recruiting in Texas, and whenever they come here, they tend to play above their level. The Navy is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 trips to Texas. Navy is also the best road dog in the country where they are 83-39-3 ATS in their last 125 games. Navy seldom gets blown out, as they have lost just 7 games over the last 5 years by more than 10 points, none this year despite battling South Florida, Memphis, and Notre Dame. Houston defense has been leaking oil allowing 474 yards a game in their last 6, and no less than 416 to anyone. Navy in this one.

The Washington Redskins stole one in Seattle 2 weeks ago, and last week they gave it back at New Orleans blowing a 15 point lead before losing in overtime. The Giants who most have left for dead, shocked the free-falling Kansas City Chiefs 12-9 in overtime. That sets them up in a bad spot for this one. teams off an overtime game and now have to play on the road in a short week, in a Thursday game are 2-17 ATS. Favorites have been tough to beat on Thanksgiving as they own a 40-19-1 ATS record to a line of -2 or more. Make the play on Washington.

The Egg Bowl will be played on Thanksgiving, as these hated in-state rivals will go at it once again. Last year Ole Miss suffered a totally humiliating defeat at home 55-20, so there will be a pretty significant revenge motive at work here. Secondly, Ole Miss is not eligible for a Bowl game this year even if they qualify, so this is their Bowl game. Ole Miss holds a 4-1 ATS mark in this series as a road dog. Ole Miss is also 11-4-1 ATS in this series with revenge, including 7-1 ATS when Mississippi has been a .700 team or better. Make the play on Ole Miss.

A lot has been made of the Dallas struggles without LB Sean Lee and also without RB Ezekiel Elliott. Certainly the results of their last 2 games would tend to verify that. Dallas has been beaten by a combined score of 64-16. So, suddenly Dallas has become a bad team to all that have 2 games on their immediate mind. We have to not lose sight of the fact that the losses came to Atlanta and Philadelphia, not 4-6 San Diego. They also turned the ball over 6 times, and Elliott ad Lee had nothing to do with that. The Chargers 4 wins have come against the Giants, Oakland, Denver, and last week vs a Buffalo team wheeling out a QB that threw 5 INT's in the first half, on their way to a +6 in turnover margin, and a 30 point win. Lost blindly i  all that was the fact they were out-gained from the line of scrimmage 6.44 yards a play to 5.96 yards a play. There is a lot of hidden value here. A team that saw their previous opponent turn the ball over 6 times are 56-74 ATS in their next game. A subset of that reads if they are posted as a road favorite in their next game they are 2-15 ATS. (0-7 ATS if it is a non-conference game). Dallas is 21-5-1 ATS from +4.5 to -1 at home if they have a winning percentage greater than 0 and less than .700. Make the play on Dallas.

The Detroit Lions have salvaged their season with 3 straight wins, and moved into the playoff hunt at 6-4. They will be going for 5 straight Turkey Day wins and covers against the surging Vikings, now 8-2, after recording their 5th straight win and cover, so something will have to give in this game. Detroit has beaten Green Bay, Cleveland, and Chicago, not exactly a gauntlet of elite teams, or even good teams. Some will look at the Detroit 14-7 win in Minnesota, and say they have proven they can not only play tough against this team, but beat them. A quick look at that game may suggest otherwise. The Vikings fumbled 3 times, and lost all 3, and out-gained the Lions 5.3 yards a play to 3.7 yards a play. Stafford was sacked 6 times, and Detroit had 10 plays for negative yardage, and Minnesota just 2. This is not a good spot for Detroit either. The Lions since the start of the 2005 season are 0-17 SU and 2-14-1 ATS losing by -13.41 points per game taking on an elite opponent, one with a winning percentage of greater than .780. That includes 0-8 ATS when the Lions themselves have been good coming in with a winning percentage of their own of .600 or better. Vikings have been a cover machine, now 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59. Minnesota can put a bow around the NFC Central with a revenge win here. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Monday Night match up between the visiting Atlanta Falcons vs the Seattle Seahawks has a lot of playoff implications. The Falcons have had injury and hangover issues after blowing a huge Super Bowl lead last year. They appear to be hitting their stride once again. While the offense has not put up big numbers, the defense has been so much better, as no team has scored more than 26 on them all season. They had 8 sacks last week vs Dallas, and Seattle has had issues on their offensive line all season. Seattle has scored 16 or less points in 4 games. Atlanta has the better offense here, and the once mighty Seattle defense is no average from the line of scrimmage. Ryan will have a good opportunity to exploit the Seahawks secondary who just lost Richard Sherman for the year, and Earl Thomas is nursing a hamstring injury. Adding to the injury woes, CB Shaquill Griffin injured his shoulder last week as is questionable. Matt Ryan has averaged 27.3ppg in his last 6 vs Seattle. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Dallas Cowboys are tied with a bunch of NFC teams at 5-4, and outside the current playoff picture. This is a critical game for Dallas, if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. The Eagles through 9 games are 8-1, and have the best record in the NFL. Dallas has to try and get it done without Ezekiel Elliott once again, but the bigger problem is T Tyron Smith's health. He missed last week, and Adrian Clayborn sacked Dak Prescott 6 times, and he went down 8 times total, and took a total beating. A weakened Dallas running game, is not helping. The Eagles have now scored 20+ points in 13 straight games, and are 9-1 in their last 10. Carson Wentz has really become an elite level QB in his 2nd year throwing for 23 TD's and just 5 INT's, with a 104.1 passer rating. Dak Prescott remains solid but his yards per attempt have dropped below 7 this season, after it being 8 last year. This is not the same offensive line for Dallas, and without Elliott, the offense really went nowhere last game. Eagles are off a bye, while Prescott took a beating last week. Eagles are 17-9 ATS off a bye, including 4-1 ATS as a road favorite. They also apply to a 141-76 ATS situation. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Detroit Lions moved to 5-4 with their 14 point win vs Cleveland last week. They remain in playoff contention, and will take on division rival Chicago, a 23-16 loser at home vs Green Bay. The Bears have struggled all season on offense as Mitchell Tribisky is a work in progress at QB. He enters with a passer rating of just 75.6, with the Bears averaging just 17.8ppg in his starts. Matthew Stafford has had one of his best seasons to date, with a passer rating of 96.3 and the Lion's offense is generating 27.1ppg. He has done a much better job with turnovers this season as he has tossed 17 TD passes to just 5 INT's. Bears loss to Green Bay last week has left them at 3-6 and the playoffs are pretty much gone now, and this could be a big letdown spot. Make the play on Detroit.

There were little expectations for the Missouri Tigers coming into this season. The Tigers managed just 4 wins a year ago, off a season where they had just 5 wins. The Tigers opened the season with 5 straight losses vs FBS opponents. They were out-scored in the 5 games 210-92. They have since turned things around, as the Tigers have won 4 straight, and have out-scored those 4 opponents by 215-66. While they have not proven they can stand up to the top of the conference, they certainly have stood out vs the middle and bottom. Vanderbilt owns just 3 winning seasons since 1982, and this will be their 4th straight losing season. Vandy is 0-6 in conference games where they have been out-scored 277-121, and allowing 46.2ppg. The Tigers have out-gained their last 4 opponents 2355-1266, and are on a roll. Vanderbilt fits into a 5-31 ATS situation, and several other indicators point to Missouri. My November NCAAFB GAME OF THE MONTH is on Missouri.

I wait for these games to come up every year. The Army recruits heavily in Texas, and currently has 23 rostered players from Texas. Coaches have even said that this is the most competitive practice week of the season. It is because players fight to make the travel team, for a lot of them it is a trip home, one that does not come often. There will be a lot of family and friends at the game. The results speak for themselves as Army is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 trips to Texas. Make the play on Army.

This game fits a situation that is 67-32 ATS and the play is on Miami.

There is a fine line between good, average, and bad in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills may be a vastly over-rated team to this point as they come into play against the hot New Orleans Saints at 5-3, and have the record of a playoff team, but it is an illusion. The Bills don't do anything good or bad, as they are pretty much a slightly below average team from the line of scrimmage. They have been out-gained by each of their last 7 opponents, and in their last 4 wins have had a turnover margin of +12. It is an unsustainable pace to be on average +3 going forward, and I expect this Buffalo team's record to erode going forward, we saw it last week vs the Jets. New orleans appeared to be heading for a bad season starting 0-2, but everything has come together for this team, including their much maligned defense, that has now allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The Saints, unlike the Bills, have won their last 3 games by an average of 9ppg, despite a negative turnover margin in all 3. The Saints have also out-gained each of their last 6 opponents. Only way Buffalo has a chance here is if they are +2 or more on turnovers, so I like their chances. Make the play on New Orleans.

Washington needed a miracle last Sunday Night, and got one, beating the Seahawks 17-14 with late heroics from Kirk Cousins. They were out-gained by nearly 200 yards, but somehow managed to win. Washington spent a lot of physical and mental energy in that game, and this team is severely banged up. The Skins have 22 players on he NFL injury report. The offense has become one-dimensional, as they have run for just 269 yards in their last 4, and has gotten worse with a dinged up OL, at just 100 rushing yards total in their last 2. Minnesota is going to make things tough, as the Vikings in their last 5 games has not allowed any QB to pass for more than 161 yards, and none of their last 6 opponents has topped the 17 point mark. Menwhile, Kase Keenum has a passer rating of 88.8, respectably better than what he has done previously in his career, and more importantly has cut his interception rate down to 1.3%. The Vikings have become a player in the NFC, and should come away with the road win here. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Green Bay Packers have certainly not fared well when Aaron Rodgers has not been their QB in recent years. QB Brett Hundley has been a disaster so far, but the Packers have had 2 weeks to get him straightened out and to formulate a game plan. Mike McCarthy is a strong offensive mind, and he will have the offense geared for Hundley to have more success, and Aaron Rodgers has worked with him as well. Better news is the banged up Packers have had a chance to heal, and have a lot more defensive starters back, as well as their offensive line back in tact. Aaron Jones has given the Packer's a running game, and should be enough to slow the rush on Hundley. Detroit has even bigger issues, as they have dropped 3 straight allowing 33ppg. The offense was 0-5 in the red-zone last week, and struggling. Packers have some strength as a pass rushing unit, and Detroit has trouble protecting Stafford, and I think the Packers will disrupt some drives in that respect. Lions have never been a strong road team, and worse as a favorite where they are 9-26 ATS as road chalk since 1992, and Lambeau has been a graveyard for this team just 1-25 SU in their last 26 here. Lot of action on Detroit, but the line eroding, a good sign that big money is behind Green Bay. McCarthy is 9-1 ATS after a bye. Lions 0-15 ATS in their last 15 vs an opponent that had less than 26:30 time of possession in their last game, losing all but one of them straight up as well. A team making 5 or more field gaols in their last game is a sure sign of trouble as they are 44-64 ATS the following game. McCarthy is 30-11 ATS in his coaching career vs teams that average 60+ penalty yards a game. Make the play on Green Bay.

The NFL has become a passing league, as more and more we see the ball in the air. A team still has to run the ball to keep opposing defenses from just coming all out every down. Today in the newsletter we will examine the rushing paradox. A gambler is faced with a favorite that has not run the ball well, vs a team that just got crushed on the ground. So the paradox is, will our favorite seize the opportunity vs a team that just git out-gained on the ground by 100+ yards, or will the inept running game of our favorite be a better match for our running scared opponent. Let's take a look and supply some history to our paradox:

1)  Play against team is favored

2)  Play against team has failed to rush for 100+ yards in each of their last 2 games.

3)  Opponent was out-gained on the ground by 100+ yards in their last game.

THE RESULTS:

The favorite is a dreadful:

45-89-9 ATS  at 35.2%!

Seems like we have found our answer, today this plays against the Oakland Raiders, so on the Miami Dolphins.

This game fits a situation that is 113-67 ATS, and the play is on Alabama.

This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS, and the play is on Oklahoma St.

It would be easy to dismiss this UConn team after Missouri pasted them at home 52-12. The game wasn't even that clsoe, as the Tigers called off the dogs with the bulk of the 3rd quarter still remaining. Dial it back a bit further, and the Huskies dropped a 70-31 debacle vs Memphis as well. They now have to try to stand in against Quinton Flowers and the 7-1 S. Florida Bulls. The perception is, the Bulls are better than both Memphis, and Missouri, so how is UConn going to stay in this game? It is all about perception, and match ups, and this is a more favorable match up for UConn. The Bulls first of all are 7-1, and have beaten teams with a combined record of 13-36 and throw in an FCS win as well. While they tend to score a lot of points, the offense actually grades out negative, generating 5.7 yards per play vs a schedule of opponents that allow 5.9. This team likes to grind it out, and they will put it on the ground 60+ times a game. UConn has faced a similar offense in Tulsa. Tulsa had a trio of RB's that have generated over 2.000 yards and 26 TD's and held them to 194 on 44 carries. S. Florida ill be feeding Tice, Johnson, and QB Flowers on keepers, who have almost combined numbers similar to Tulsa. Beating UConn on the ground is not as easy as through the air, as Tulsa found out. Flowers is not an accurate throwing QB, as he completes just 53%, just like the Tulsa duo, President, and Skipper who complete 55%. S. Florida has beaten an easy schedule of opponents for 3 reasons. They run them into the ground, they win the turnover battle (7 games with a turnover edge, and 1 even), and run a lot more plays. The defense is above average, but their schedule of opponents average a woeful 6.3 yards per attempt in the air. UConn's QB Bryant Shirreffs may not be the best QB in the FBS, but has generated 9.1 yards per attempt, by far the best air attack the Bulls have seen all season. The Bulls have beaten 6 FBS teams, and the 6 teams they have faced have thrown 56 INT's on the season, Shirreffs has thrown 4. While it won't be freezing cold, it will be in the low 50s and drop into the 40s in the 2nd half, and living in Florida this early in the season, that will be the coldest weather this team has experienced since May of this year. Many will expect South Florida to come in loaded for bear off their first loss, but history dictates otherwise. A team that was 5-0 or better and lost their 1st game last time out by 14 or less points, and are now facing a team better than .250 and worse than .667 are 39-82 ATS! Line is way off here, make the play on Uconn.

This game fits a situation that is 177-102 ATS, and the play is on Northwestern.

This game fits a situation that is 101-66 ATS, and the play is on Iowa St.

This game fits a situation that is 88-57 ATS, and the play is on Stanford.

This game fits a situation that is 51-16 ATS, and the play is on Vanderbilt.

When I look at a game, I like to look for hidden value and there is plenty to work with regarding this game. The Lions don't get to play on Thursday Night, Monday Night, or Sunday Night very much at all. They have made 5 appearances since October of 1999 on Sunday Night and are 0-5. They have made just 4 appearances at home on Monday Night since October of 1998, and have not appeared at home on a Thursday Night since October of 1998. Needless to say, the current roster has very little experience in game preparation for these "special" games. Pittsburgh has been a fixture in these games pretty much on a season to season basis. Pittsburgh is 7-1 since 1989 vs Detroit (best record they have vs an out of conference opponent), winning by 11ppg. Detroit would appear to be the better offense here, but they are far from it, registering -0.5 yards per play from the schedule of opposing defense they have faced, while Pitt is +0.2. Detroit has scored on short fields more than any team in the league, and is averaging 11.1 yards per point, which will not continue. No team has generated more than 313 yards against the Pittsburgh defense this season. Pittsburgh allows -0.7 yards per play vs a schedule of opposing offenses generating 4.7, while the Detroit defense is even. This gives Pittsburgh the advantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and the Detroit injury list is as long as the dead sea scrolls. Pittsburgh comes in very healthy. Stafford has struggled throughout his career vs strong defensive teams, with an 83.6 passer rating against defenses allowing from 13.6 to 19.6ppg, and his Lion's team is averaging 19ppg in those contests. Pittsburgh is allowing 12.6ppg when it does not turn the ball over more than 1 time. The Steelers also fit a statistical match up situation that is 125-80 ATS. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Not too many teams come out of Seattle feeling very well. The Seahawks are 41-6 SU at home since the start of the 2012 season, and teams from the AFC that seldom play here are 0-11 SU over the period. DeShaun Watson has been a force, but most don't realize his last 3 games were all at home, and now he must go to the most difficult place in the league to play, and his inexperience is going to be tested at the top level. Seahawks have allowed 15.4ppg in the 47 games, and many think the defense is down, but 15.8ppg a year ago, and 13.5ppg this year. Make the play on Seattle.

Many were surprised that Lane Kiffin took the Florida Atlantic job. He has the Owls at 4-3, and the offense has been clicking on all cylinders, and produced a season high 69 points in their last game at home vs North Texas. The owls generated over 800 total yards of offense in that win. The problem side of the ball for this team is a defense that has allowed 31ppg on the season vs FCS opponents, and a road record of 1-2 on the season. The Hilltoppers have been given expectations beyond their means after a couple of very strong seasons, but at 5-2, they have shown signs of improvement with each game, and have now won 4 straight, and for the 1st time this season will be in the role of an under dog. Statistically, FAU brings in much better numbers to this game, along with a much tougher schedule. This is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and W. Kentucky is 18-2 SU here in their last 20 games, losing by a single point in both loses. They are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a home dog, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6, winning 5 of those outright. Owls never good in this role, and are 2-7-1 ATS as a road chalk. Hill Toppers apply to a 77-40 ATS situation as well. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

: After completing the past 12 seasons with a .500 record or better, the BYU Cougars are enduring what possibly may turn out as their worst season ever. The Cougars enter play at home with a woeful 1-7 record on the season, and stand at 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They will have their best chance of getting their first win this season against an FBS team against San Jose St. Like the Cougars, the Spartans are winless vs FBS competition this season. Biggest problem for San Jose is turnovers, as the Spartans average 3.5 turnovers a game vs FBS schools. BYU has played a much tougher schedule overall, and when there has been a battle of a pair of 1 win teams from game 8 out, the home team is 37-16 ATS, and I have a subset of that which is 18-2 ATS, make the play on BYU.

The Florida St. Seminoles last had a losing season back in 1976, over 40 years ago. They enter this game against Boston College at 2-4 on the season. this is step up time for the Noles, who have endured a lot of injuries this season, but have a deep talented roster. Are they really a pick-em team against BC, subtracting out 3 for home field advantage? The Noles have by far played the toughest schedule in the country, with no opponent under .500, with the 4 losses coming to teams that are a combined 24-4 on the season. Taking a look at those 4 opponents, the Noles actually were the better team from the line of scrimmage, 6.92 to 6.54. It was a negative turnover margin totaling -7 in the 4 games, and a negative turnover margin in all 4. Don't get me wrong, this BC team is much better than the previous few years, and have played a tough schedule of their own. The difference is, their toughest 4 games vs Clemson, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Notre Dame, show them out-gained 6.84 yards a play to 5.06. Much different than Florida St. The Noles are the better team on both sides of the ball, and in every facet. BC even had a +1 turnover edge in the 4 games mentioned above. This is not close, make the play on Florida St.

Other than a period from the 2006 season through the 2009 season, Toledo has been .500 or better in all but 1 season since 1990. This has been the most stable program in the MAC, and one that has generated 9 wins in 5 of the last 6 seasons, and at 6-1 they sure look like they will add another. The Rockets have blasted conference opponents to the tune of a 47-12 SU record since 2010, covering 60% of the time along the way. The Rockets are 123-92-6 ATS in conference games all-time. (14-5 ATS from -21 to -30). Ball St. has lost 7 of their last 30 games by an average margin of 40ppg, so this team has played some ugly games recently. They have bigger problems in this game with RB James Gilbert, and QB Riley Neal, both out. Reserve QB Jack Milas is also nursing an injured elbow. Milas is probable, but his 4.9 yd. avg. per attempt is way below average, and he has thrown 0 TD`s to 6 INT`s on the season. The Cards are also without a pair of WR`s for this game, and they have generated a grand total of 15 points in their last 3 games. Toledo fits an 84-37 ATS situation for the icing on the cake, Make the play on Toledo.

This is based on one of my top systems which is 51-5 ATS, make the play on Indianapolis.

This game is based on one of my top systems which is 42-7 ATS, make the play on Tampa Bay.

This game is based on a statistical matchup indicator, one that has a record of 84-48 ATS, make the play on Carolina.

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Wyoming.

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Michigan.

The Oklahoma Sooners will take on Kansas St. on the road. The Sooners have the best passing attack in the country, at 12.5 yards per attempt, and while Bill Snyder has worked some magic at home as the coach of Kansas St., those numbers have not held up vs ranked opponents. Kansas St. has a good run defense, but have been marginal vs the pass, and this Sooner aerial attack is by far the best they will have seen this season. Kansas St. has another issues, as QB Jesse Ertz will be out again, and he is the Kansas St. offense. Ertz duel threat ability led to a passing attack that was generating 9.3 yards an attempt, and Ertz is by far the best runner on the team. Alex Delton has completed 38% of his 34 passes at 5.2 yards per attempt. Dalton can run some, but not the same threat as Ertz. Oklahoma big in this one.

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Illinois.

This game fits a situation that is 77-51 ATS, and the play is on Indiana.

: It is still a bit of a secret how much impact Jeff Brohm has had at Purdue in his first year. he had an immediate impact in his first job at W. Kentucky, where in 3 years his team averaged 10 wins a season. His teams averaged 44.7ppg during his 3 year tenure. Purdue has not won more than 3 games in any of their last 4 seasons, Brohm has them at 3 wins through 6 games, and a big win vs Minnesota. Purdue has been 3-30 in Big-10 play over the last 4 years. The Boilermakers have been out-scored by 18ppg in conference play over the period, and just 4ppg this season, despite facing Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Rutgers has a long way to go to get to where Purdue is right now. The Scarlet Knights have been buried by the top teams in the conference, and Purdue has been very respectful in all games. Purdue is positive from the line of scrimmage on defense, as well as offense, and has a huge advantage in this one on both sides of the ball. If you look at the 3 expected competitive games on the Purdue schedule, where they were favored by 6 or less, or a dog of 6 or less, they have out-gained those 3 opponents by 6.82 yards a play vs allowing 4.33 yards per play, and have gotten off an average of 8 more plays per game on top of that. Rutgers won at Illinois last week, despite being out-gained, and were also out-gained as a -6 point favorite vs E. Michigan, in a loss at home. Make the play on Rutgers.

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Temple.

It was one of the worst weeks ever in the history of Big Ben, who was picked off 5 times last week in a 30-9 home loss vs Jacksonville. It just added more question marks to a Pittsburgh offense, that finds themselves averaging shy of 20ppg. The Pittsburgh defense, has for the most part saved the day, but it is not complete. The Steelers have been elite defending the pass, which has served them well in a pass happy league, but against the run they are allowing 5 yards per carry against a schedule of teams that average just 4.3. Enter the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs run the ball better than anyone, at 5.7 yards a carry, and have elite passing numbers as well. Defensively, the Chiefs have been pretty average. The Chiefs have simply had a nose for winning, cashing in on every break, and barely turning the ball over. The last 32 non-offensive TD's scored in a Chief's game, shows KC cashing in 30 of them, opponents 2! You wonder why they are 27-4 SU in their last 31 games. They are an opportunistic good team, that doesn't turn the ball over, and feasts on opponents miscues. The Chiefs have not turned the ball over in 4 straight games. Many will believe that puts the odds against them, the "due" theory. Well, history says the exact opposite. The less a team has turned the ball over, the less they will going forward. An NFL team off a turnover free game covers 50.3%, off 2, 54.8, off 3, 67%, off 4 70.3%(83.3% as home favorite) The Chiefs are off 4. Make the play on Kansas City.

It has been a long road for the New Orleans Saints to be over .500, the last time was all the way back to the 2013 season. They have won 2 games in a row, and a win vs the Lions at home will get them back there. The Lions rally fell short last week against the Panthers at home, but they lost perhaps more than the game. Their top defensive lineman, Haloti Ngata, is now on IR with an elbow injury, and QB Matthew Stafford limped through the 4th quarter with hamstring and ankle issues, although he is expected to play, but at what level? The Lions don't have good metrics, but where they have been winning is in the turnover battle, as they come in at +8. The Saints have completed 4 games to open the season without a turnover. They became just the 3rd NFL team in history to do so. If you think they are "due" to turn the ball over, that simply is not the case. A team that has not committed a turnover in 3 straight games is 75-37-4 ATS, and if they have not done so in 4 straight games, they are 19-8-1 ATS. (8-1 ATS last 9). Make the play on New Orleans.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers once sat atop of the college football world. Going to Lincoln was a death sentence, and National Title aspirations were part of every season. Just going back to 1980 they won 9+ game every year until 202, won 11+ games 10 times, and were 133-10 at home. They have since lost 27 at home, and never have won 11 games, and finished .500 or worse 4 times, and a loss here to Ohio St. would make them 3-4. Ohio St. looks a lot like those old Nebraska teams in the win/loss column as the Buckeyes are 66-7 under Urbam Meyere. The numbers for this Buckeye team are scary elite on both sides of the ball. They generate 7.4 yards per play vs an average defense played that allows 5.6. Defensively, they allow just 4.2 yards a play to a team that averages 6.1. That makes this team nearly 4 yards per every play against the opponents averages they have faced. Nebraska is a slightly better than average team from the line of scrimmage, but will be at a disadvantage every play in this game on either side. Urbam Meyer is 11-3 ATS at Ohio St. vs a line of -21.5 to -31, 26-13 ATS in his coaching career. A team that has allowed 14 or less points in 2 straight games, facing a team that allowed 37+ in their last game is 47-16 ATS as a road favorite. Meyer's teams are also 68-37 ATS following an ATS win in his coaching career. nebraska was out-gained at home by Arkansas St. winning by just 7, only beat Rutgers here by 10, and snuck past N. Illinois by 4, and were blown out by Wisconsin. Tre Bryant has been the best RB for Nebraska, and he has been downgraded to doubtful for this game. Tanner lee, the Nebraska QB, has already been picked off 10 times this season, and the Ohio St. secondary is the best he will have seen this season. Oklahoma's loss, opens the door for the Buckeyes who should be ready to make a big statement in Lincoln. Make the play on Ohio St.

You have to feel for Maryland, as they have had the injury bug at the QB position as an ongoing issue. This year it may be at its worst. They lost Tyrell Pigone to a torn ACL, who completed 9-12 passes at 14.6 yards per attempt, 2 TDs 1 INT. They lost Kasim Hill to a torn ACL who was 18-21 throwing for 11 yards per attempt. The 3rd string Maryland QB Max Bortenschlager, was out into the concussion protocol last week, and has yet to be cleared. Bortenschlager is no bargain to begin with completing just 54.5% at a woeful 4.5 yards per attempt with 2 TD's and 3 INT's. If he can't go, then Celeb Henderson is likely to get the nod. Henderson has been around 4 years, starting at North Carolina, before transferring to Maryland. He has thrown exactly 2 passes in 4 years, 0-2. He has injury issues hurting his foot, and then reinjuring it in the spring, so he has not been taking any reps at all, until recently, and may not be even healthy. Northwestern is great against the run, so that does not leave a lot of offensive options for Maryland in this game, as with little threat in the air, the Wildcats can load the box, and be even better against the run. Maryland in big trouble here, make the play on Northwestern, my NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR!

The W. Virginia Mountaineers spent a lot of energy last week in Fort Worth, where they lost to a very good TCU team 31-24. They come home to face a Texas Tech team, that has been better than expected as the Red Raiders are off to a 4-1 start, losing only to Oklahoma St. by 7. The Red Raiders have played 82 points above the line. Texas Tech has been the FBS long term version of the greatest show on turf. They own a stellar 120-82 ATS mark when playing on turf, including 18-5 ATS the last 3 years, and have played well in the role of a road dog of late, covering their last 4. They have often been a team that fades late in the season, but prior to game 8 they own a 96-61-6 ATS mark over the last 20 years, and just 58-65-1 ATS from game 8 on. Morgantown is a tough place to play as indicated by the Mountaineers 145-30-3 SU mark here, but they are just 78-94-6 ATS in those games, often over-priced. That has been especially true as a home favorite vs Big-12 opponents where they are just 5-12 ATS. Texas Tech fits into a huge 72-23 ATS situation this week based in part on teams off at least a pair of spread wins with a competitive line, on the road. Make the play on Texas Tech.

The SEC is and has been considered the best conference in college football. Will Munchamp took over a Florida program with expectations beyond what was possible, had a lot of injuries during his tenure there, and never quite lived up to expectations. He took over a South Carolina program last year, that won just 1 conference game, and took them to a Bowl last year. The Gamecocks are much improved, and already own a big win over NC State, that looks much bigger now. While the offense is pretty ordinary, if they are able to run the ball they tend to win, when they can't they lose. They should be able to run vs a Tennessee team that has allowed 1263 yards on 245 carries this season, with every opponent, including Umass topping the 100 yard mark. While it is true for most teams, if you can't run you don' win, it is especially true for SC under Muschamp, as they are 9-2 gaining 100+ on the ground and 0-7 when they don't. His coaching career shows 100+ on the ground 37-15, less than 100 1-15. The last time Tennessee held a conference opponent to under 100 yards rushing it was November 21, 2015. So a good marker to start with. This game also fits a strong 75-23 ATS situation in favor of South Carolina. Make the play on South Carolina.

Mike Leach coached at Texas Tech for 10 years, and went to 10 Bowl games. He has been at Washington St. now for 6 years, and this will be his 4th Bowl season, although this one might be for a National Championship. His teams are known for prolific passing attacks, and with Heisman candidate Luke Falk at QB, who leads the nation with 19 TD's and just 2 INT's, it may be the best offense he has had. What Leach has this year that he has never had, is a defense which is arguably better than his elite offense. The Cougars defend the run very well, but in the air, they are one of the best in the country, and Cal can't run the ball at all, and will be forced into the back end of the defense which is going to be troublesome. Cal scored just 7 points against another elite defense vs Washington last week, and while they defend the pass well, they have not seen a QB as experienced, and as precision as Falk. Make the play on Washington St.

This line may look a bit suspect with Carolina laying more than a FG, but there is a hidden reason for it. Carson Wentz is having another great start to his season, but things look ominous without Lane Johnson at tackle. last year the Eagles went 5-1 with Johnson protecting Wentz' right side (2-8 without him), and off to a 4-1 start this season. Johnson is in concussion protocol, and will not play tonight, and Halapoulivaati Vaitai is no match for Mario Anderson, and I think Wentz is going to be under a lot of pressure. Another issue is the elite class of the Carolina linebackers. They simply shut down TE's and RB's coming out of the backfield. TE Zach Ertz is a very good player, and has been targeted 48 times, 10 more than the 2nd most TE. He may not be free to do much damage tonight, and he is an integral part of the Eagles attack. Christain McCaffrey has not run the ball well for the Panthers, but his value is in short passes, and has been a favorite of Newton, and leads the team in receptions, and his work in this area, has been an extension to a poor running attack. Cam newton looks like a different player, he has gained confidence that his repaired shoulder is ok, and is completing a career high 68.3% of his passes. He has looked like a different player the last 2 weeks, and I would expect he continues to play at a higher level, maybe not up to the standard of the last 2 weeks, but more 2015 than 2016. Newton is 19-11 ATS as a home favorite, and Wentz has been awful as a road dog, throwing 8 TD's to 9 INT's with a woeful 58% completion rate, as well as a poor 71.9 passer rating. Thursday Night home favorites have a big edge and are 114-84 ATS, covering 57.6% on the blind, and 74-51 ATS at home, 59.2%. from week 6 on teams off a dog win that are at home and .750 or better, against an opponent, that is also .750 or better are 17-2 ATS. Make the play on Carolina.

The Houston Texans are undoubtedly a better offensive team with Watson at QB, as he has averaged 7.5 per attempt on the season, in his 3 games. Last week the Texans rolled up 57 points, taking advantage of 5 Tennessee turnovers, and lived in the red-zone with 9 attempts. I won`t be as easy this week against what has quietly been the NFL`s best team over the last 30 regular season games. The Chiefs are 26-4 SU over that period, 20-10 ATS. How can a team that has been out-gained in 17 of those 30 games, and out-gained overall in those 30 games be 26-4? The answer is quite simple, they force turnovers and don`t make many. The Chiefs average just 0.8 turnovers a game in their last 30 while forcing 2.1 per game. Quite simply put a team that has a 1 or more turnover advantage in an NFL game wins 86.9% of the time, and covers 84.9% of the time. The Chiefs continue to do their thing, they turn you over, and run out the clock. They have just 1 turnover in their last 3 games. A team that has played 3 straight turnover free games, facing a team that has made at least 3 turnovers in its last 3 games, are 63-28 ATS, with a 20-4 ATS subset. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Colts have announced that Andrew Luck will once again not play. That only means one thing, the Colts will struggle. History dictates their poor defense will assure they do, as a team that is playing as a home favorite, that allowed 28 or more points in at least 2 straight games, facing a team off a less than 6 point loss are 22-50 ATS. The Colts average just 17.8ppg, despite converting 70% from within the red-zone, which is likely to regress, so getting lucky, and still struggling does not bode well. The Niners are 0-4 but have been knocking on the door, and defend the run very well. Generally speaking, when a team is winless after 4 games or more they cover 56.7% of the time. San Francisco also applies to some extremely strong situations for this game, which are 102-48 ATS, and 72-20 ATS, with a subset at 42-6 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

Maybe the Detroit Lions all carry a rabbit`s foot with them during games. The Lions are 3-1 on the season, and everything has gone their way. They were beaten severely from the line of scrimmage last week by more than 1.5 yards per play, but won. The Lions offense may be ranked in the top 10, but they have scored mostly from starting drives in opponents territory, as they rank last in the league in drives starting in their own territory. Carolina has a legit defense, and have finally taken the collar off of Cam Newton, and are back to allowing him to create plays and impact games with his legs, which is where he excels. Carolina has been the better team thus far on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Panthers apply to some strong turnover situations here as well. Make the play on Carolina.

It is rare to find a program like UT San Antonio, that has assembled a very strong defense in a low level conference. Combine that with a team that has 0 injuries to report at This stage of the season, and you have a dangerous team. UTSA opened some eyes when they went on the road and held Baylor to  10 points and 274 yards of total offense, while neither of their other 2 opponents have reached 200 yards. They have also been potent on offense averaging 47.5ppg against teams not from the P5. Frank Wilson has done a great job here. S. Miss imploded last week at home vs North Texas, owning a 21-7 lead at the half and getting pounded in the 2nd half 36-7, as a better than a TD favorite. This while having won the turnover battle 2-0. Nothing shouts trouble more than those numbers. UTSA is a very balanced offense generating 744 yards on the ground thus far, and 706 in the air, while their opponents have generated a total of 621 yards in 3 games. S. Miss is going to have problems moving the ball, while UTSA has proven they not only can get stops, but beat you with a pretty decent balanced attack on offense. Better than that, UTSA is in a mega situation for this contest, one that has delivered a 100-46 ATS mark. Make the play on Texas San Antonio.

This is the one game other than Navy when it appears on the schedule, it becomes a big deal. Army does a ton of recruiting in Texas. The Black Knights 2017 roster lists 22 players from Texas. Coaches say this is the most spirited and focused week of the season, as players try to work hard to make the travel roster, and see some family and friends that travel to the game. Usually a parent or two will have a big dinner for the players at their house after the game. Needless to say inspired by family and friends, Army and Navy as well are a combined 26-4 ATS when playing in Texas! pretty much sums it up, I make these plays a must everytime they come up. Make the play on Army.

The Florida St. Seminoles opened with Alabama, and lost, but played a very good game, especially defensively. Although they lost, they maintained the mindset they could still run the table, but then the unthinkable occurred, they lost their starting QB for the season. The next game was a home loss to NC State, and that was followed by a close call at Wake Forest. The defense is spending too much time on the field, and the offense is very ordinary. Miami is a multi-dimensional team, one capable of winning the game on either side of the ball. The offense is good enough to score some points here, but the same can't be said for Florida St. against an above average defense. Not only that but the Canes fit a very strong 73-23 ATS situation for this one as well. Make the play on Miami, Fla.

There are a lot of similarities to W. Virginia, and TCU. They both have star QB's who transferred in from major P5 programs, they both have displayed prolific offenses, and both programs have a history of success. Where they are different lies the key to this contest. W. Virginia runs the ball very well, but the TCU run defense has been historically great under Gary Patterson, and is certainly the case this season. The Frogs run the ball with equal ability, but W. Virginia struggles to stop the run as evidenced by Kansas' Khali Herbert rushing for 291 yards against the Mountaineers, Kansas? Moreover, the Mountaineers have struggled on the road vs the uper tier of the Big-12. W. Virginia won 9+ games in their last 7 seasons as a member of the Big east, but just 1 time in 6 years in the Big-12. The main reason is against the upper tier (Kansas St., TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., and Baylor), they are a combined 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS on the road, losing by 20ppg! Last year W. Virginia won 10 games, but once again, the losses came on the road to Oklahoma St by 17, Oklahoma by 28, and in their Bowl game vs Miami by 17. TCU has major revenge here. They lost 34-10 last year in Morgantown, their worst loss ever as a member of the Big-12. Pay back is in order here, make the play on TCU.

Friday October 6th, 2017

  Top Side Play · [308] Connecticut Huskies       +14   -115 (Bovada)
    Fri Oct 6th, 2017 7:00pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

Expert Analysis: Many bettors see this one as free money, as Memphis, who already owns a win vs UCLA, takes on Uconn, a team that has beaten just 11 FBS teams in its last 50 games. This game opened at Memphis -16 and has eroded all the way down to -13 at a couple books, despite the fact that the public is backing Memphis at better than 61%. That raises red flags all over, as it simply says the larger bets are coming in on the Huskies, so 38% of the money is much greater than 61% of the money on the Memphis side. History shows, when this is the case, the bigger (often wiser) money is on the low percentage team, in this case Uconn. Huskies have arguably the worst defense in the FBS, but before you give the Tigers a big edge here, they are right near the Huskies at the bottom of the FBS. Huskies air attack generating 9.8 yards per attempt vs opponents surrendering 8.2, but defense allowing 8.7 vs opponents that average 7.3, has given it all back. Huskies don`t get to perform in the national spotlight too often, but have taken advantage of those opportunities, as they are 15-6 SU and 13-8 ATS at home on these weekday affairs. They have played 10 of these contests as a home dog, logging 6 wins to an average line of 10, so plenty capable of pulling off the surprise. remember Memphis beat UL Monroe at home by just 8 points. Monroe has allowed just shy of 40ppg to the likes of Coastal Carolina, LA Lafayette, and So. Miss. They also beat FCS opponent S. Illinois by just 13 at home, allowing them 31 points. For the record S. Illinois lost last week at home to Northern Iowa, and scored just 17 points. Memphis is living off a huge win vs UCLA who was ranked at the time. UCLA is 3-2 now, with a miracle 1 point comeback win vs AM at home, and led Colorado, also at home by 1 point with :30 seconds to go, before adding a late FG. This is a monster sandwich game for Memphis. They just got hammered 40-13 vs C. Florida, and have a revenge game vs Navy next week at home, followed by Houston the week after. That means Memphis s off a game vs an undefeated opponent, and has an unbeaten opponent, with revenge, in their next game, making this a very dangerous spot for the Tigers. This is a season saving opportunity for Uconn, staring down the barrel of 1-4, and with a 3 game late season rough spot taking on BC, C. Florida, and S. Florida for 3 in a row, only a win here would make a win in any of those 3 games significant. This is a `step up` game under the National spotlight for a team, desperately needing a morale booster, and have the right set of circumstances here to make it happen. Make the play on Uco

Whenever the Pats have looked bad over the past few years, the question of Tom Brady's age comes into play. Those moments remain few and far between, and the Pats 2-2 start has nothing to do with the offense. The pats have the worst defense in the league through 4 games, but I wouldn't get to crazy regarding the Pats demise just yet. Bill Belichick often gets things worked out, and I would not be surprised to see them play at a much higher level on defense tonight. This is a team that has a marked history of getting off the mat after a loss, and coming back in their next game and dominating. New England is 28-2 ATS following a loss since the start of the 2003 season to a line of less than -7 in regular season games. (21-0 ATS if their opponent is better than .570). Beating Brady & Belichick isn't easy on a full 6 days of preparation, it is even harder in 3 days, especially after a New England loss. Jameis Winston has slowly improved as a QB, but still tries to force things from time to time, and he may feel the pressure of having to score a lot here, and make a critical mistake or two. Overall, the numbers in this case speak very loud on behalf of the Patriots, make the play on New England.

This game reminds me a whole lot of last weeks game between Clemson and Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech came into the game over-rated, against a formidable opponent at home, as does NC State this week. NC St. is simply a lot like Virginia Tech, they are at this point of the season over-rated. That occurred because they went to Florida St. to face a team that lost the heart of their offense in QB Deandre Francois, and it showed up for the Seminoles again last week, barely sneaking by Wake Forest. Remember, NC State has lost to South Carolina, did not cover vs Marshall or Furman, and failed to cover again vs Syracuse, who played them even from the line of scrimmage. All together NC State has been +0.3 yards better on offense than the schedule of opponents they have faced, and -0.5 worse on defense, that is a net negative from the line of scrimmage. Louisville is better than any of the 5 opponents the Wolf pack has faced this season, and have a Heisman QB that is  duel threat, and a lot of weapons at his disposal. The Cards explosive offense has been +1.5 yards better than their opponents allow, which is elite, and the defense is has been +0.2 for a net from the line of scrimmage of +1.7. Louisville applies to a 84-60-3 ATS situation that plays on great passing teams, those averaging more than 300 yards a game, as road favorites of less than -7, from week 4 on. (7-3 ATS on a Thursday Night). Overall that equates to a 10 point Louisville win, so things will have to go haywire for Louisville not to win and cover here. Make the play on Louisville.

  Top Side Play · [280] Kansas City Chiefs
    Mon Oct 2nd, 2017 8:30pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

One NFL team that was on my radar for 2017 as improved was Tennessee. That opinion hasn't changed. They had a huge game last week vs Seattle, one that could prove they belong with a win. They out-played the Seahawk's most of the game, and came away with a huge win. Huge, I mean for this team's psyche, a loss would have left them wondering, but that win is going to have them in a totally different mindset, they belong. QB Marcus Mariota has arrived, he is doing a better job of taking care of the ball, and has a set of RB's that are changing the offense, and allowing the defense to get extended rest. DeShaun Watson reminds me of Mariota a couple of years ago. He is playing with a limited set of plays, is feeling himself through games, but also making critical mistakes. he has a 77.5 passer rating, but he can hurt you with his legs, and Tennessee better be aware of that, as I am sure they are. You can see the potential, he just needs time. Houston has been exposed through the air, and might expect Tennessee to take advantage of that, otherwise, I see Tennessee as the team with the mojo right now, and Houston has to be feeling stung after letting one slip away in Foxboro last week. Early in the season, prior to week 5, a team off a road loss and now at home in what amounts to a pick 'em game from +3 to -3 have failed miserably as they are 77-120 ATS. That includes 15-29 ATS if the loss was a stinger, by -4 points or less. Make the play on Tennessee.

The Miami Dolphins caught a bad break when Ryan Tannehill went down with a season ending injury. The Dolphins saw themselves with little choice, and coaxed Jay Cutler out of retirement. The problem is Cutler has been pedestrian at best his entire career. The Miami passing attack numbers reveal, that through 2 games the Miami offense ranks as being the worst in the NFL, and last week vs the NY Jets, they hit bottom, failing to score until the last play of the game. The bad offense puts pressure on a reasonably average defense, but one that suffers against the pass, and that is Drew Brees at his best. Miami has had a very difficult scheduling fluke, as their opener was cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. They have since gone to the west coast to take on the LA Chargers, fly back to Miami, fly to New York to take on the Jets, fly back to Miami, and now fly to London. This team is not playing well, and additionally, have to be feeling travel fatigue. Jay Cutler seems to struggle when his team needs him to put points on the board. He is a woeful 6-28-1 ATS in his career when the total is 47 or higher. The Saints tightened some things up a week ago holding another bad offense to 13 points, in Carolina, should be able to mange the pathetic Dolphin offense here, and exploit the Fins poor pass defense, that is allowing 9 yards per attempt vs much worse offenses. New Orleans in this one.