Sports Picks & Predictions

The Seattle Seahawks rolled with Geno Smith last season and he had a big year for them. He is still about the same in turnovers, so that hasn't been a problem. Where the problem lies is his TD passes have tapered off steeply. Last year mith threw 32 TD passes, and he has just 5 through 5 games this season. I think this is a good matchup for Arizona QB Joshua Dobbs. Dobbs yardage numbers stand out vs a zone defense which Seattle employs on better than 4 of 5 snaps. Seattle finds themselves in a horrible situation that has been 7-42 ATS that has to do with certain favorites coming off an away loss vs an opponent also off an away loss. Make the play on Arizona.

The Indianapolis Colts are 3-3 on the season, but they are a soft 3-3 team. The Colts QB Gardner Minshew is averaging just 6.4 yards per pass attempt and has just 3 TD passes to 3 INT's. Indianapolis has been out-gained by their opponents on the season. The Browns are 3-2 on the season and none of their opponents has gained as many as 300 total yards in any of the 5 games. Cleveland has an ultra elite defense that is allowing exactly 200 yards a game against them. I don't see the subpar Colts offense doing much in this game. Cleveland fits into a defensive elite situation that is 73-48 ATS and I will make the play on Cleveland.

The Nevada Wolfpack has started the season 0-6. Nevada despite being 0-6 has out-played their stats which adds further value on this game. This is a team with a significantly low offensive efficiency, and has been out-gained on the season by almost 200 yards per game. Nevada now has a 16 game losing streak, and has covered just 5 times in the 16 games. San Diego St. does one thing above average as they can throw the ball some, and against one of the worst pass defenses in the country, they will have success moving the chains, and ripping off big plays. San Diego St. is 70-47 ATS against a losing team over the past 30 years. Make the play on San Diego St.

It looks like there is some line bias in this game. Toledo seems to be good most years, and the Rockets head to Miami, Ohio at 6-1 to take on the upstart Miami, Ohio Red Hawks who is also 6-1. Miami, Ohio should get a boost on offense as their star WR in Gage Larvadain make his return today. Toledo owns 3 wins by 7 or fewer points, and on average they were a -16 point favorite in the 3 games. Toledo is in several bad situations for this game. Since the start of the 2014 season a team posted as a home dog that comes into the game having won 4 or more straight games is 60-34-2 ATS. Make the play on Miami, Ohio.

This is the biggest game of the day as Penn St. heads to Ohio St. with both teams at 6-0 on the season. Both defenses are extremely good, and Penn St. has been brilliant on the defensive side of the ball as the Nittany Lions are allowing just 194 yards per game and just 8ppg. This game looks like a very good match up, but there is a lot in play here for Penn St. from a situational aspect. Penn St. brings the momentum of winning and covering 2 straight games, and after doing so they are 16-0-1 ATS. Games played between a pair of teams that are both 5-0 or better has seen the dog prevail 18-7 SU and 19-5-1 ATS. Penn St. has run an average of 21 more plays a game than their opponent, while Ohio St. is at -2. I like Penn St. in this one.

Greg Schiano had success at Rutgers his first time around, and he is starting to move the needle in his 2nd stint at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a very good defense that should shut down the Hoosier mediocre offense. Rutgers is allowing jut 16ppg on the season. Indiana has had trouble scoring against the better defenses on its schedule and I don't think that is going to change today.  and could become bowl-eligible with a win. Indiana has only beaten Akron by 2 points this season and were out-gained by over 200 yards. The other win is vs. FCS Indiana St. an easy win. A team that over its last 7 games is +49 or more points better than their opponent and has a winning record vs. a losing team is 79-49 ATS as a road favorite. Make the play on Rutgers.

This is a difficult scheduling period for Jacksonville. They just played 2 games in Europe, and now come home to be away again at New Orleans. Jacksonville will also be on the road next week. Jacksonville certainly has not carried itself well on the road where they are 22-79 SU in their last 101 road games. (15-73 SU as a road dog. They are also 9-18 ATS as a road dog of 4 or fewer points. Trevor Lawrence is a game time decision, but it looks like he will play, but may not be a running threat in this game. New Orleans has covered 5 straight in this series, and I like that to become 6 tonight. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Arizona Cardinals have gotten mixed reviews from QB Josh Dobbs. There has been a home vs road dichotomy that should come into play again. The Cardinals have moved the ball well at home where they are averaging 25.3ppg, but on the road they have truly struggled where the average dips to 16.5ppg. The defense has been bad home or away as Arizona is allowing 27.2ppg. Te Rams are 2-3 to start the season. Matt Stafford has had success downfield, and Arizona has been awful defending big pass plays so there will be many opportunities here for the Rams offense. Stafford has had trouble vs pressure, but Arizona has the 3rd worst pressure rate in the NFL. Dobbs is going to feel the heat vs Aaron Donald and others, and I think it will lead to turnovers and a couple short fields for the Rams defense. This is an important game for the Rams as it makes the difference of being 3-3 or 2-4. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The New England Patriots were embarrassed last week losing 34-0 to New Orleans. The Patriots have now lost their last 2 games by a combined score of 72-3. They have had a 6-0 turnover deficit in the 2 games. I'm not going to go into details of how New England is better than they have been the past 2 weeks, but they are in so many perfect situations it is hard for me not to hold my nose and play on them, as nobody wants them at this point which just fuels the line. A regular season game involving a team that was shutout in their last game covers 58.4% of the time in their next game. (115-82-5 ATS). I have 6 situations that all land on New England and I just have to trust what the information says and make the play on New England.

The Carolina Panthers drafted Bryce Young to be their QB into the future. He has made adjustments as he was hanging onto the ball too long. That has changed over the past 2 games, and he is slowly figuring things out. Carolina still has not put one in the win column as the Panthers head to 4-1 Miami with an 0-5 record on the season. The Panthers pushed their game against New Orleans, but still have not covered a game at 0-4-1 ATS. The Miami offense has been elite as the Dolphins are the only team in the NFL to produce a 500 yard game on offense and the Dolphins have done it 3 times already. The Miami offense took a hit losing Devon Achane. This game however features a situation that is 89-47 ATS in favor of Carolina. It has to do with a horrible team and horrible ATS team facing a good team and good ATS team. Looks like the type of game where Miami is not very motivated. Carolina has a bye mext week that puts them in a situation that is 133-99 ATS as well.  Make the play on Carolina.

The San Francisco 49era are now the 6th NFL team to score 30 or more points in each of their first 5 games. For what it is worth, the previous 5 teams went 1-4 ATS in their next game. The Browns offense has mostly self-destructed as Cleveland has turned the ball over 10 times in 4 games. The Niners are in some historically bad situations. They are off 3 straight home games. A team off 3 straight home games and now playing as a road favorite of more than 3 points, and playing within a specific total range is 6-32 ATS, and 1-9 ATS if favored by more than a TD. Home dogs in the NFL of greater than 7.5 points are on a 17-3 ATS run in the NFL (80-62 ATS longer term). The Browns have allowed 196.5 total yards per game. I like Cleveland in this one.

Most will shy away to making a play on Iowa. It is well known they don't move the ball well, but it seems like that has been a problem most years. The one good thing is Iowa has a rock solid defense as usual. Iowa is down to a backup QB that is worse. The Hawkeyes however have the best special teams in the country, and when you are playing in an anticipated low scoring game, special teams are far more important. Wisconsin is average offensively and slightly better than average defensively. Make the play on Iowa.

Most will shy away to making a play on Iowa. It is well known they don't move the ball well, but it seems like that has been a problem most years. The one good thing is Iowa has a rock solid defense as usual. Iowa is down to a backup QB that is worse. The Hawkeyes however have the best special teams in the country, and when you are playing in an anticipated low scoring game, special teams are far more important. Wisconsin is average offensively and slightly better than average defensively. Make the play on Iowa.

The Western Michigan Broncos went to Mississippi St. and came home with a loss, but they did cover the game. The Broncos are 2-4 on the season. Miami, O.is likely getting their best player back from injury in Gage Larvadain. The Red Birds are 5-1 on the season, despite Larvadain missing 3 games. Miami, O. fits a strong 108-53 ATS situation. Make the play on Miami, O.

Kent St. did not bring an offensive player back from last season, and just 4 defenders. This is a brand new team, and the Golden Flashes are still looking for a win vs. an FBS opponent where they are 0-5. They have played a tough schedule. Kent St. in their 5 games vs. FBS opponents was on average a 28 point dog. They now get a game vs Eastern Michigan who has started 3-3, but to a very soft schedule. Eastern Michigan may be 3-3 but they are averaging just over 14ppg in their 5 games vs. FBS opponents. Eastern Michigan is being out-gained by 137 yards per game, and I think the number here is too big. Make the play on Kent St.

The Jacksonville Gamecocks are 5-1 on the season, but have had the magical turnover luck on their side all season. The Gamecocks have had 4 of their games where the opponent turned the ball over 3 or more times, and in their 5 wins they have averaged 3 turnovers, and are +10 on the season through 6 games. They have been out-gained by their opponent in 4 of their 6 games. Liberty is 5-0 and has out-gained their opponents by over 160 yards per game. Liberty has also had a higher strength of opponent average. Liberty is 51-27-2 ATS all-time, and 13-5 ATS when they are unbeaten on the season. Make the play on Liberty.

The Arizona Cardinals shocked the Dallas Cowboys at home last week. When you have a poor team off n upset win as an 11 point dog or more, they are 30-56-3 ATS in their next game, and if they are favored by more than 7.5 points, they are a woeful 0-13 SU and 1-12 ATS, and have failed to cover by more than 7 points. A 3-0 team that is posted as a double-digit favorite are good bets having gone 10-2 ATS since 1997. The route is on, Make the play on San Francisco.

The Denver Broncos could not have had a worse game against the Miami Dolphins which resulted in a 70-20 loss. This might be the first opportunity for Justin Fields to have a good game in the air. Through the first 2 games it was all short passes, but last week he averaged over 15 air yards on his passes, 3 times the amount of the first 2 games. Denver is giving up a lot on longer passes and this should be a good match up for the Bears. Denver is getting little pressure with its defense. The Bears use RBs in the passing game, and Denver ranks last to passing yards allowed to running backs. The Bears are also vulnerable to RBs in the passing game. I think both offenses will find the match ups appealing, and move the ball well in this one. I think the Justin Fields dynamics shine in this match up at home. The Bears fit a 78-41 ATS situation. Make the play on Chicago.

The Miami Dolphins put up 726 yards last week vs. Denver and through 3 games they have gained 1,651 total yards. The one thing about the NFL is things like this change and don't last very long. Bettors are swarming to the Dolphins this week with 70% backing them. How enticing it is to look at the Dolphins as a dog right now, and bettors have taken the bait. The Bills have had the Dolphins number as they have won 9 of the last 10 meetings, including 7 straight at home. Buffalo is going to show up in a big way and they have the defense to slow down the Dolphins and an offense that has put up 75 points in their last 2 games, The Bills have not allowed any of their 3 opponents to gain 300+ yards, and are a much more complete team than Miami. Scoring 60+ points in an NFL game is rare, and the 5 teams that have done so since 1980 are 0-5 ATS in their next game. Make the play on Buffalo. Make the play on Buffalo

The Cleveland Browns lost Nick Chubb likely for the season. The story here however is the Cleveland defense. The Browns new DC Jim Schwartz, has the defense looking /85 Bears-like. Cleveland has allowed 1 TD through 3 games, and lead the NFL in 3 and outs. Baltimore has 20 players on the injury report, and will continue without OBJ, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, and
center Tyler Linderbaum. That isn't good news vs a very strong Cleveland defense. The Browns held Tennessee to under 100 total yards last week and when an NFL team has done that in the past they are 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 occurrences, while allowing a stingy 15.7ppg in the 27 games, and have covered 7 of the last 8. Make the play on Cleveland.

Ball St. has really struggled trying to move the chains. The Cardinals are averaging just 16ppg. They did have 2 very tough opponents against Kentucky, and Georgia. The problem is in their last game vs. Georgia Southern, they were beaten all around 40-3. W. Michigan had 2 powerhouse games themselves against Iowa and unbeaten Syracuse. I think Ball St. was exposed to being the bad team they are, and Western Michigan should be by better than a FG in this one. I like Western Michigan.

This is a big game for both teams. Clemson is 2-2 on the season, and can't take another loss or their season, by their own standards, is over. Syracuse has an opportunity to go 5-0 with a good win under their belt. Clemson has not been the same since their top QB's that won them two Championships. Clemson is grading out average on offense. Clemson is strong defensively, but not the same way this team used to be built. I think Clemson might be a bit over-rated because they earned the right to be, but it doesn't apply here. I like Syracuse.

Minnesota is off to a 2-2 start with an expected loss vs. North Carolina, and a bad loss last week vs. Northwestern. Minnesota has a very good running game and they should be able to have a lot of success on the ground. The passing game has been poor, but LA Lafayette has doesn't defend it well either. LA Lafayette has faced 4 teams that have yet to win a game vs. an FBS school. The offensive numbers they have put up against cupcakes will not translate to this game. The 3-1 record is quite deceptive, and Minnesota fits a situation that is 76-41 ATS. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Sean Payton era is getting off to a slow start in Denver as the Broncos head to Miami at 0-2. The Payton offense that went through Alvin Kamara when he was in New Orleans now goes through RB Samaje Perine. His receiving success is #1 for all backs so far this season, and with Miami playing soft underneath vs. running backs I can see Denver having success moving the chains. Overall, the Dolphins have been awful against the run and I'm sure they will face a heavy dose of it Sunday. The Miami passing game has been elite throwing downfield, but this week they will be without Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle who suffered a concussion last week. DB Pat Surtain is a tougher matchup than what Tyreek Hill has seen this year, and without Waddle there should be help as well. This game also favors Denver with a 23-4 ATS situation that plays in part on game 3 teams off 2 straight spead losses to start the season. Make the play on Denver.

The Minnesota Vikings had everything go right for them last year. They won 13 games despite being out-gained and out-scored by their opponents. They won 11 games by a single possession, and the regression is underway this season. The Vikings passed on Dalvin Cook and are paying the price as they have rushed for fewer than 70 total yards through 2 games, the worst mark in the league. The Vikings have taken the opposite course as they are 0-2 with 2 one-possession losses. The Chargers may be the best of the 0-2 teams. The Vikings have turned the ball over 7 times in 2 games. Justin Herbert is 9-4 ATS in his career as a road dog with 30 TDs and just 8 INTs. The Chargers fit a very strong 103-47 ATS situation. Vikings are in an 82-128 ATS situation. I like the LA Chargers in this one.

The Detroit Lions opened last season 1-6 and it looked like the same old Lions. Things began to click, and confidence grew as the Lions did a quick turnaround and finished the season 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are now dealing with a rash of injuries as they have 17 players listed on the injury report. That includes some key players, as they take on a relatively healthy Atlanta team. Detroit is facing a lot of downgrades on the field, while Atlanta already 2-0 has some significant upgrades. This game including home field advantage for the Lions grades out to a pick 'em game, so there is line value on the Falcons. NFL teams off a home favorite loss prior to game 5 and not a favorite of 4 or more points are 81-143-10 ATS. NFL week 3 home favorites of 3 or fewer points and coming off a loss are a woeful 12-38-5 ATS. Make the play on Atlanta.

Jordan Love has had mixed reviews in his first 2 starts to begin the post Aaron Rodgers era. The good news is Love has thrown 6 TDs and 0 INT's. The bad news is the Packers offense has gained just 583 total yards in 2 games. The 31ppg is not sustainable with those numbers, and I think there will be regression for Love as the season moves forward, especially against the best defense he will have seen in the New Orleans Saints. The Packers are also playing into a situation that is 2-21-1 ATS. Make the play on New Orleans.

Louisiana is going to be significantly under-valued in this game, because they have lost starting QB Ben Woolridge to a foot injury. That may not turn out as most think. Backup QB Zeon Chriss is more than capable. Chris has thrown just 20 passes on the season but completed 14 of them at 8.7 yards per attempt, which in a small sample size is hard to measure. Chriss is also a very good runner as he has 7 carries for 116 yards, so the running game will be upgraded substantially with him calling signals. Buffalo is 0-3 on the season, with a loss to Wisconsin as expected, but also a loss to Fordham. The Bulls allow over 44ppg. while their offense is also significantly below average. Louisiana is averaging almost 37ppg and may be a better offense with the backup. I like Louisiana.

The Texas St. Bobcats have not won more than 4 games in any of their last 8 seasons.They took a chance on bringing in head coach G.J. Kinne and his OC Mack Leftwich from Incarnate Word. Incarnate Word finished 12-2 and averaged 51ppg. Those numbers have translated even better at the FBS level. The Bobcats have the biggest upset of the season so far as they trounced Baylor as a 26.5 point dog. They put up 42 on Baylor. Going back to week 9 of 2018 this Baylor team had allowed an opponent to score 40 or more points just 2 other times. Texas St. is averaging 44ppg, and will host a Nevada team that I have ranked in the bottom 5 of all FBS teams. This game is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, and fits a momentum situation for the Bobcats that is 77-34 ATS. Make the play on Texas St.

This line has been growing in favor of LSU, and I think the influence of Arkansas' loss to BYU 38-31 has many down on this Arkansas team. That loss wasn't as bad as it looked. The Razorbacks out-gained the Cougars 414-281. They had 2 costly turnovers, so they controlled the line of scrimmage, and lost a game they should have won. LSU is also in a look ahead spot with a big game coming up next week at Ole Miss. Most of the game will be decided by the LSU offense vs. the Arkansas defense. LSU has moved the ball well on everyone, but was slowed down by Florida St. Arkansas has stopped everyone and out-gained all 3 opponents, but this will be the toughest offense they have faced all season. These teams have scored a combined 52 points the last 2 years, and Arkansas has been good in Baton Rouge where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 trips here. Since Sam Pittman took over at Arkansas his team is 23-15-1 ATS and always seem to be under-valued. (15-10-1 ATS in conference games. His teams is also 12-7 ATS as a dog. I think this is closer than it looks, and LSU is always considered to be an impossible place to win, so the lines tend to be skewed as they are 76-98-4 ATS at home. Make the play on Arkansas.

This will be a tough game for South Florida as the Bulls played Alabama to a 17-3 game, and held the failing Tide offense to 17 points. I can't see this team coming off that game with a lot of energy and Rice is in one of the biggest spots I have in situational handicapping which is 87-32 ATS. Make the play on Rice.

Colorado and coach Prime have become quite the story this season. Colorado won just one game a year ago but coach Prime is off to a 3-0 start after surviving last week vs Colorado St. That win came with a price as Colorado lost their most valuable player in Travis Hunter. Hunter is their best DB and best WR. Sanders at QB has exceeded expectations, especially since he has faced more pressure than any other QB in the FBS this season. I think that goes up in this game and being short his best receiver will make it tougher as they can't run the ball at all.  Games like this are won in the trenches and that is where Colorado is lacking depth and talent, and they will be exposed big here. Make the play on Oregon.

Since the start of the 2008 season under Nick Saban the Tide has lost 5 home games, and never 2 in the same season. Here we are in game 4 and Alabama is certainly in danger of losing for a 2nd time already this season. Jalen Milroe should be starting and is. He made some costly mistakes vs Texas, and Saban wanted to see what his other 2 QBs could do, and it wasn't much. So after Saban had seen that Milroe may not be ready for the big moment, he yanked him, and is now going back because he has no one else. Ole Miss through 3 games has been better than Alabama, and Alabama has other issues, the defense is good, but not as good as it has been or needs to be. Texas scored 34 points on 460 yards at Alabama and the Ole Miss offense has been better than Texas so far. The Ole Miss defense has been a yard better than their opponent, so they will not make it easy on Alabama. I think Ole Miss could win this one outright. I like Ole Miss. (I am putting a half unit on the money line with Ole Miss as well, but I am not making it an official pick.) Take Ole Miss plus the points.

Coastal Carolina never won more than 5 games before Grayson McCall arrived to play QB. He has better numbers over the 3 years than almost every QB. He has thrown 81 TD passes with just 10 INTs in his career. I think the concerns about him playing in a new system isn't real. He has played just 3 games and 1 was vs. UCLA. Take those numbers out and it looks more like the last 3 years. Georgia St. is 3-0 but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country. That being said they have been a below average team defending these bad teams. Things are going to change dramatically tonight. The Chanicleers have had a good enough defense to allow their offense to keep a distance from their opponents. I like Coastal Carolina in this one.

The Dallas Cowboy's looked like the most dominant team in week 1 of the NFL. They bullied the Giants 40-0. One would think this game would be an easy letdown, but if any team let's down it will be the Jets. They watched their Super Bowl hopes really get dashed when Aaron Rodgers suffered a torn Achillies on his 4th snap of the game. The Jets took advantage by sloppy play by the Bills who had 4 turnovers. A team off a shutout win, are 57-35-5 ATS in their next game. Make the play on Dallas.

The Chicago Bears spent a lot of money in the off-season looking to get things turned around quickly. The Packers Made quick service of the Bears in an easy 38-20 win. Tampa Bay unveiled what they hope is a new version of Baker Mayfield. He played well and mistake free in a close win over the Vikings to start the season 1-0. This is a bad news Bear's type of pick as one of my favorite and reliable situations has this 2-33 ATS nightmare playing against the Bears. They are also on the losing side of a 45-94 ATS situation. Make the play on Tampa Bay. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

The Detroit Lions made the playoffs last season in a surprise. They are now the darlings of Prime Time as they will play 5 National TV Prime Time games. Things like this have a rather long history of not going as it would seem. I think the Lions may be ft cats after their 1 point win vs Kansas City. The Chiefs were missing a lot of star players. Seattle got crushed by the Rams 30-12 at home, so both these teams need a win. Seattle also fits in a 21-0 ATS situation that is on them in week 2. Make the play on Seattle.

I think this is a great spot for Ohio St. The QB controversy has ended. Kyle McCord was named the QB for the rest of the season, and the numbers dictate why. McCord averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt in 2 games this season and Devin Brown just a mediocre 5.1. This should really help the Ohio St. offense get on track, and they have the perfect team to do it against in Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers have an awful defense that allows over 460 yards per game against 2 horrible offenses. I don't expect the Western Kentucky offense to move the ball at all here as Ohio St. has a strong defense. Look for Ohio St. to win this one by a huge margin.

The North Carolina is led by Drake May and he has completed over 73% of his passes on the season. That has been complimented with a running game generating 6.5 yards a carry. North Carolina has a strong pass defense as does Minnesota, but North Carolina has played a much tougher schedule to this point. This will be the first offense this Minnesota has seen this year that is balanced and has speed. Minnesota has not run well yet, and Carolina has defended the air. Too many advantages here to let go. Make the play on North Carolina.

Missouri Coach Eliah Drinkwitz is running out of time in Missouri. He has yet to post a winning record in his 4 years. The good news is his Missouri team is off to a 2-0 start to the season. They may have a chip on their shoulder as they lost at Kansas St. 40-12 last year. Kansas St. is a top 20 team on offense and defense and has started 2-0. When you have a game between a pair of 2-0 teams and there is a home dog involved, that home dog is 15-16 SU and 19-12 ATS as long as they are a dog of fewer than 6 points. Home dogs from 3.5 to 10 in a game where both teams have outrushed their opponents by 50 or more yards a game on average, are 31-8 ATS. Make the play on Missouri.

The Falcons offense was borderline bottom 10 last season. They have opted to go with Ridder and see what he can do. His performance last season was below Marcus Mariota, so there is a decent chance they are worse this year. The Panthers should be much better this season as they have brought over DC Ejiro Evero. He was the highest ranking DC ply caller in the NFL, and I think he has better personnel to work with in Carolina. Atlanta is off of 5 straight losing seasons, and will be challenged not to make this year the 6th. Scouts are high on rookie Carolina QB Bryce Young. They have said he is as close to Aaron Rodgers of anyone they have seen in the league in terms of accuracy. Think there is a lot more upside here on the visiting dog. Make the play on Carolina.

The Arizona Cardinals have voided their roster of talent. Any way you look at this team there is a hole to fill. They are going to go with Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune. Not sure if there is a winner in that pair. Washington has really built up their defensive line using the draft and the rewards will start to occur this season. Washington brought in
Eric Bieniemy from the Chiefs as their new offensive coordinator. There should be some upside from that move. This game fits a 127-78 ATS situation, with line value. Make the play on Washington.

The Vikings have made some additions to their receiving core, and it should help Kirk Cousins have a lot more choices to throw the ball. They are building a much stronger offensive line through the draft, and it looks like the Vikings offense could be significantly better this season. Brady was somewhat better than average in Tampa Bay last year, but with Baker Mayfield at QB. they have been downgraded significantly. The Bucs have a very young, but very talented secondary, so they possess the type of defense that could give Minnesota trouble. Minnesota was out-gained last season by 31 yards a game despite winning 13 games. The Vikings won 9 games by a single score last season, and this line is too high. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

The California Bears under Justin Wilcox have always been starved for offense. They have not averaged as many as 24ppg in any of the last 5 seasons. They have had to rely on good defenses to stay in games. Their fans have to be excited by what they saw vs North Texas. The Bears threw for 312 yards, mostly by a backup QB. They also ran for 357 yards giving them a total of 669 total yards. Auburn has not been able to defend the run and Cal has one of the best backs in the country in Jadyn Ott. He picked up close to 200 yards in game 1. It was shocking that one of the worst teams in the country, UMass, ran for 7.2 yards per carry last week. Then there is Coach Wilcox who has been lethal at Cal as an underdog. He will be in the best part of that this week vs Auburn. Wilcox has led his team to a 16-3 ATS mark when posted as a dog from 5 to 15. Make the play on Cal.

Washington was in need of a QB, and went out and got Cameron Ward.Many questioned the choice, as Ward played football at Incarnate Word. Would he be up for the challenge? Ward was succeeding all over the field, and went 37-49 and over 450 yards. They beat Colorado St. 50-24. QB Tanner Mordecai was awful last week for Wisconsin. The Wisconsin defense looked vulnerable as well. I think these teams are within a FG of each other, and the Cougars are also at home. Make the play on Washington St.

It is hard to understand just how good Chris Creighton has done at Eastern Michigan. This team had not been to a Bowl Game since 1987, and did not have winning record since 1995.His team is always prepared and that has left him a 33-12-3 ATS record as a dog of under 38. His team as a road dog of fewer than 24 points his team is a sizzling 23-4-1 ATS.Make the play on Eastern Michigan.

Northwestern had a very difficult summer. The program was riddled with scandals, and almost everything you read about them is negative. What they do have is a solid defense, and a lot of public against them with all the negative news. I think there will be line value on Northwestern early in the season at least, despite last week vs, Rutgers. UTEP is not exactly a thriving program. This team is 18-53 since the start of the 2017 season. Since the start of the 2017 season they have played 6 schools from the P5 and are 0-6. They have faced a team from the P5 41 times and are 0-41 SU! I like Northwestern in this one.

The Georgia Bull Dogs are 33-1 SU in their last 34 games. That streak won`t end on Saturday, but this is a big number. Ball St. certainly isn`t near Georgia`s level. The offense behind a new QB was only up 17-0 at the half. They picked it up some in the 2nd half but it looks like this is not a team that has become cohesive yet. Ball St. has enough to not be totally embarrassed. This has never been a good spot to back Kirby Smart teams as huge chalk. He seldom runs up the score for the monster sized wins. His team`s at Georgia since he arrived are 0-9 ATS when laying 38 or more points. Make the play on Ball St.

Dabo Swinney took over the program at Clemson in 2008. Once he had his recruited players in 2011 the Tigers have won 10 or more games every season since. His team was at the pinnacle of success from 2015-2020 where they went 79-7. While this program is still strong, since the start of the 2021 season, they have lost almost as many games (6), as their golden period. I think this is a good team, but the elite status is not present as it was. They have lost 3 games in each of the past 2 seasons for the first time since 2011. They have suffered 3 double-digit losses the last 2 years, and have had 8 wins of 6 or fewer points, and 8 single possession wins the past 2 years. (10 wins by 13 or fewer points, while they had just 7 such wins in the previous 4 years. their scoring margin has dipped significantly over the past 2 seasons. Duke is not a big-time football program, but they are off a 9-4 season with the 4 losses coming by 8,3,2,3 points. Cade Klubnik has yet to prove himself at QB. Overall, this is still a good team, but this is a reputation line, and the value is on Duke. Duke brought in 3 experienced defensive backs through the portal, and with 8 returning starters the defense should be better. Duke had an above average offense a year ago and QB Riley Leonard has all his backs and receivers returning. Duke was 5-1 ATS last season as a dog, with the only loss by 1/2 a point, and 3 of those were outright wins. Make the play on Duke.

Texas Tech was better than their record a year ago, and the offense could be ready to explode this season. The Red Raiders caught a bad break a year ago when starting QB Tyler Shough was injured in the very first game of the season. He came back to play well in the last 5 games. This season he is healthy and Texas Tech has 10 returning starters on offense, I look for a huge upgrade in the Tech offense this season. The Tech defense is expected to be similar to last year which was slightly better than average. Wyoming had a bad offense last season and will start this year without Dawaiian McNeeley out for the season with a torn ACL, and backup running back Harrison Waylee will miss the first few games. The Cowboy passing attack was brutal last season, and shouldn`t be much better this season. A road favorite of -14 to -21 points in a season opener covers about 60% of the time. I like Texas Tech.

This should be an interesting season for Wisconsin. The Badgers have been a running team for a long time, but they have a new offensive coordinator in Phil Longo. Longo is going to veer away from the heavy running attack we have seen in Wisconsin, to a much more balanced attack. Longo was successful in doing just that at North Carolina. He will have Tanner Mordecai running the offense, who was successful at SMU. He will have a talented receiving group to spread the ball around, and with RB Braelon Allen running the ball the Badger offense should be one of the top units in the country. Luke Fickell will head the coaching staff and he built a strong team at Cincinnati. The Wisconsin defense is always rock solid. The Badgers have 18 returning starters. Buffalo finished 7-6 last year and won their Bowl game, but the numbers don`t show a 7-6 team. They ran 12 more plays a game than their opponent, and had a positive turnover advantage, and were out-gained by over a yard per contest. This game fits a game 1 situation that is in part based on big home favorites that are 107-69 ATS. Make the play on Wisconsin.

I would not want to be Arkansas St. facing this Oklahoma team in their season opener on the road. Moreover, Butch Jones's team has just 11 returning starters, and that does not include the QB. Oklahoma had a total disaster last year and finished 6-7. You have to go back 25 years to find an Oklahoma team with fewer wins. I think there is value in Oklahoma early this season after last year's debacle. I will lean on this. Game 1 home favorites playing to a total of fewer than 60 points are 99-68-2 ATS. Make the play on Oklahoma.

That isn't the case in the Super Bowl. According to former All-Pro specialist Pat McAfee - who booted the opening kickoff for the Colts in Super Bowl XLI - the ball used in title games isn't handled until the opening kickoff, and it's kicked just once before being removed and preserved for the Hall of Fame.

Before I get too deep into this, I want to acknowledge that San Francisco is a very good team. The issue here is just how good are they. Statistically they stand out as being very strong. The issue for me in this game is as follows. The 49ers have 14 wins this season. Their best win, and the only team they beat that was over .500 is the LA Chargers at 10-8. The only team they played this season that is in the final 8 this weekend is Kansas City. They were blown out 44-23. QB Brock Purdy has been the best of their 3 QB's this season. He is still a rookie, and like I said from above, he has had 6 easy opponents to play against, and had very little to challenge him. That is going to change this week vs Dallas. Dallas can get pressure, and overplay often for INT's. I can see Purdy getting rattled and making a crucial mistake or two. Dallas has more weapons than any team the 49ers have faced both in the running and passing game. Dallas tends to play to the level of competition. They made Tom Brady look 45 last week, what will they scheme for a rookie QB? I think this is the most challenging game for the 49ers all season. Make the play on Dallas.

The Buffalo Bills have won 41 games over the last 3 seasons. They have yet to find their way to the Super Bowl. Something always seems to go wrong. If there is reason to believe that will be the case again this season, here it is. Buffalo faced 3 teams that made the playoffs this season. They won 2 of them by 3 and 4 points, and lost the other by 3. All 3 games were extremely tight. The last time they faced a team that made the playoffs was on November 13th against Minnesota, a loss. It has been over 2 months since the Bills have faced a winning team. Cincinnati faced 5 teams that made the playoffs and won 3 of them. The two losses were by 2 and 3 points. What this says to me is that this game is going to be tight, and the Bengals are getting several points to many here. Cincinnati fits situations that are 34-11, 98-56, and 51-28. Buffalo is in several negative situations. I like Cincinnati in this one.

A lot of what Philadelphia does offensively is predicated on the arm and legs of Jalen Hurts.He is likely not going to be 100% for this game, and the Eagles will probably hold him back from running the ball like his usual self. The Giants are not supposed to be here. Daniel Jones has made great strides and does not turn the ball over like he used to and the Giants defense has been improving. They have not allowed more than 353 total yards in any of their last 4 games which includes 2 vs Minnesota and one vs Philadelphia. The Giants seem to be in every game as they have played 14 one-possession games in which they are 13-1 ATS, and 9-4-1 SU. The Giants have double-revenge having lost to the Eagles twice this season, and playoff teams in that case as a 6 point or more under dog are 6-1 ATS. The Eagles lost a lot of their mojo down the stretch, and sometimes that is harder to get back than most would think. Giants come in feeling pretty good and has covered 5 straight games. A team that comes into a playoff game on a 5 game ATS winning streak or more are 18-11 ATS. (6-1 ATS taking 4 or more points). I like the NY Giants in this one.

There is one big difference in this game. It is at the most important position. Trevor Lawrence made great strides this season, but he still has a long way to go. He threw 4 interceptions in the first half and while he finished with 273 yards it came on 47 passes, at less than 6 yards per attempt. The Chiefs have the best QB in football in Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are also generating 4.7 yards per carry on the ground vs teams that combine to allow 4.4. The Chiefs will also have the biggest mismatch on the field with Travis Kelce. The Jags are 32nd out of 32 teams defending tight ends. The Jags are also 29th in broken tackle rates against them so yards after the catch are gong to add up. Kelce caught 6 passes for 81 yards against Jacksonville earlier in the season, but played his 2nd fewest snaps of the season as well. Jacksonville relies on pressure and they pressured Mampmes just 4 times in their meeting this season. Andy Reid has coached 19 post-season wins and 16 of those came by 10 points or more. Reid's teams are also 29-6 SU and 22-13 ATS with an extra week to prepare. I see a comfortable 10+ point win for the Chiefs. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Minnesota Vikings probably shouldn't be in the position they are. They have defied all odds by winning 11 games by one score while losing none. The Giants have been in a similar situation as they have played. What everyone forgets is the Giants are 12-1 ATS in one possession games.(10-0 ATS in their last 10 one score games). They have played 13 themselves. Points in this game are a big factor in what sets out to be a close. The Vikings also have one of the worst special teams unit in the league where they rank number 30. Jalen Reagor averaged just 6.4 yards per punt return with four fumbles. Greg Joseph converted only four of his 10 field goal attempts of 50 yards or more (this makes that Giants game-winner all the more unlikely) and also missed a half-dozen extra points. And the Vikings allowed 26.2 yards per kickoff return; only Miami was worse. Make the play on the NY Giants.

The Buffalo Bills are going to be a motivated team throughout the playoffs. They are playing for Devar Hamlin, and no need to go into those details as anyone reading this understands what happened. The Bills check all the boxes as it is. They are better than Miami across the board by significant margins, which expand with Tua being out for Miami. That includes a decisive special teams edge. Not only is Tua out, but Raheem Mostert is out as well. Buffalo has everything clicking right now, and playing inspired football for Hamlin makes this one a snoozer. Buffalo rolls in this one, lay the points.

I was waiting to see the status of Mile Williams for the Chargers. He has been officially ruled out. He is the only successful deep threat for the Chargers. Meanwhile the Chargers have a big hole on defense. They have a pair of very good cover corners but they have been attacked in the middle of the field. The Jags became a different team late in the season finishing at 6-1. They destroyed the Chargers in week 3, and I think they have gotten a lot better. Games in the playoffs are more about match ups and I like how Jacksonville matches up here. The Chargers can`t run the ball effectively, and if you can`t run in the playoffs and your missing your game breaking receiver, you are in trouble, especially on the road. I`ll take Jacksonville in this one.

The Seattle Seahawks backed into the playoffs with a 9-8 record as a Green Bay loss to Detroit punched their ticket. Brock Purdy has actually been better than any of the 2 injured San Francisco QB's, and the Niners have averaged 33.6ppg with him under center. That along with an elite defense makes the Niners a strong Super Bowl contender. The playoffs are an entirely different entity, as the game speeds up, and the pressure mounts. Since the 1986 season a rookie QB starting a playoff game has gone 5-15 SU. Backup QB's have an equally inept record as well when it comes to the playoffs. The weather will be a factor for this game as it has rained in the Bay area for a week straight and the current forecast for Saturday is 100% chance of heavy rain. It will be tough to get a big margin in these conditions and the wind may also be a factor. This game fits my strongest playoff situation that is built around a team entering the playoffs on a long winning streak. That situation is 0-23 ATS, and plays against San Francisco. Make the play on Seattle.

It is the improbable vs the season long favorite. TCU lost just 1 game this season, and it was a surprise that they got by Michigan. It took a lot of things going wrong for Michigan, who turned the ball over 3 times, and had a pair of pick-6's that gave TCU 14 points. Michigan played their sloppiest game of the season, and still had a chance down the stretch, but could not overcome the lost possessions and points that ensued. You can play the "what if" game and look at the result if that didn't happen along with a Michigan turnover inside the TCU 10. Michigan would have won the game by a considerable margin. The Georgia defense appears to be exposed allowing 71 total points in their last 2 games. Everyone forgets this same Georgia defense held Oregon to 3 points. The Ducks averaged over 40 points per game in all their other games. They also held Tennessee to 13 points, a team that averaged 46 and scored 31 or more points in every other game. My point is there is a capacity for this Georgia team to completely shutdown the TCU offense, the same doesn't apply on the other side. Recency bias is well noted by bettors and see this as the same challenge as Michigan. Remember without 2 pick-6's and a fumble near the end-zone, Michigan covers this line vs Michigan. TCU has the 70th rated run defense and Georgia is the best at running and defending the run, and is #2 in the red-zone on defense. TCU allows over 26ppg so if the stout Georgia defense plays their game, it will be a long night for TCU. There is also a situation that plays against a team from week 12 on that just beat an undefeated team in their last game, and they are 91-120 ATS in their next game. (that is also 18-27 ATS if it is a playoff game, a Bowl Game, or a Championship game. TCU star running back has a sprained MCL and his status is unclear, but will be hampered at the least. Remember last year in the SEC Championship game Georgia game up 41 to Alabama and lost big, only to come back and hold a Heisman Trophy QB to 18 points. Remember, this is just 1 game, and as we saw vs Michigan, anything can happen. Handicapping is about what is likely to happen, and this is how I see this game. The TCU bandwagon is overflowing and it has moved the line down. I like Georgia to repeat and get the cover in a convincing win. Make the play on Georgia.

The Arizona Cardinals are down to 3rd string QB Trace McSorley. He has not been the answer. McSorley has a 51 QB rating and has thrown for just 5.2 yards per attempt. The Cardinals also have 30 players on their injury report heading into their game vs San Francisco. The Niners can be the #1 seed so they will certainly be playing to win. This game also fits a crazy good situation that is 1-29-1 ATS. The team in this situation averages losing by 32.8 to 9.8 and in the 29 losses just one game saw them lose by 13. All other games were by more! Make the play on San Francisco.

Pittsburgh is still alive for the playoffs, but need things to happen. Cleveland is still playing for a lot. They need to get reps for Watson, who will be their QB for a long time. It is a favorable match up for Cleveland as Watson is great against the blitz on first down, and Pittsburgh brings heat on first down almost more than any other team. Kenny Pickett is getting some headlines but he ranks very low among QB's so a lot of the winning the Steelers hve been doing isn't statistically bright moving forward. I like Cleveland in this one.

This should be an exciting Rose Bowl as Penn St. takes on Utah. The missing players for this game turns up to be a wash. Penn St. is playing their best football of the season, and if you look at the stats they have a better yards per play differential than Utah, as well as a tougher schedule. Utah likes to run the ball as they average 40 rushes per game, but Penn St. allows just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt and will control the Utah running game. The Utah defense is vulnerable through the air, and I look for Penn St. to attack downfield. The Penn St. pass defense is allowing just a 52% completion rate, and if Utah can't run the ball they will struggle here. This game also applies to a 45-12 ATS January Bowl situation, that favors the Nitany Lions. Make the play on Penn St.

This has been the most exciting season in Tulane football in memory. The Green Wave comes in at 11-2 and is also 11-2 ATS. That isn't as good news as it sounds as a Bowl team that comes into their game on a 3 or more game ATS winning streak are just 121-154-2 ATS. USC QB Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy and he was initially slated to be out, but he has declared himself ready to play and I like USC if he is indeed the QB (check injury report). His coach says he will start without restrictions and he practiced well all week. The fact that he wants to and is going to play indicates to me that USC is showing up here, and they are much better than Tulane. Make the play on USC.

The news of Mike Leach passing was sad. He was an innovative offensive genius, and he changed the game. I think Miss St. will be dedicating this game to him, and whatever their "A" game is we will see it today. Illinois has a poor offense which is likely to suffer the impact of losing RB Chase Brown and his 1,600+ plus yards. Defensively the Illini have been rock solid, however, they will be missing their 2 CB's for this one, and their defensive coordinator left for Purdue. This game has set up perfectly for Miss St. Make the play on Miss St.

Lamar Jackson has been ruled out for Baltimore as the 10-5 Ravens host Pittsburgh. The Ravens have averaged just 12ppg in his absence, but are 2-1 in those games. The defense has made a big leap from early in the season. The Ravens have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 14 or fewer points. Pittsburgh comes of a very emotional last drive win in honor of Franco Harris. Heading on the road after a sky high emotional game, they could come up flat. I like Baltimore in this one.

The Packers have a lot of incentive this week. They have won 3 straight games, the offense has been much better, and if they win they could move up to the top 7 for a playoff spot with a Washington loss to Cleveland. I like their chances as Green Bay is 78-52-5 ATS at home from week 10 on since 1992. (70-46-3 ATS as a home favorite). Green Bay is also 30-6 SU hosting a dome team after week 10. Cousins has never been very good in cold weather, and the Vikings have not played an outdoor game since week 10. Green Bay also fits a 110-47 ATS situation. Make the play on Green Bay.

The New York Giants have been a surprise team this season. They closed last season with a 4-13 record and needed just 6 games this season to top that win total. They have had a considerable amount of good fortune. The Giants have 8 wins, and a tie, and have not won a football game all season vs any opponent by more than 1 possession. The Giants just don't have the personnel to get margin, and I like Indianapolis here.

Georgia is looking to become just the 4th team in the Championship era to win two consecutive Championships. It is going to be strength against strength when Ohio St. has the ball. The Ohio St. offensive line allowed just 8 sacks all season. While Georgia is a top defensive team, I saw a weakness at times, allowing receivers to get behind them. Ohio St. has a top QB in CJ Stroud, and a pair of receivers with over 1000 yards. I also think that the Georgia WRs are not up to the level they have been at in the past. Their best receiver is McConkey and he is questionable for this game. Ohio st. is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games posted as a dog, and I think the loss to Michigan has pushed this line toward Georgia. This should be a 3/3.5 point line, so I see line value and handicapping value in favor of the Buckeyes here. Make the play on Ohio St.

Is this the year that Michigan finally gets over the top, and wins a National Championship? It starts against TCU. TCU had several games that could have gone either way, but somehow manaaged to pull them all out, and here they are playing for a Championship. Michigan is the most physical team TCU will face all season. The offensive line is the most talented in the country, and the offense has averaged over 40ppg. The defense was rock solid a year ago, but is even better this season, and they can run or pass, but tends to bully the opponent with an over-powering running game. These playoff games tend to go as you would expect. The last 14 playoff semi-final games have been decided by 14 or more points since 2015. Eight of those eleven games came with a greater than 7 point favorite and all 6 since 2018 have been decided by 14+ points, I see a similar result here and will make the play on Michigan.

There will be a sense of revenge in this game. These teams met last Bowl season in the Citrus Bowl and Kentucky won 20-17 with a late TD. Iowa is a horrible offense, so starting a 3rd string red shirt freshman QB is going to be difficult to downgrade an offense already ranked 130. It may actually surprise in a positive way. It is the Iowa defense that should rule the day. Iowa allowed just 14.4ppg. If you take out games vs ultra elite offensive teams Michigan, and Ohio St. they allowed 9.2ppg! So the offense won't need to do a whole lot here. Kentucky is without their QB and top RB, and allowed 42 sacks on the season. I would not be surprised if Iowa scores on a defensive TD here. There is a lot of hidden value here as well. Iowa holds a significant special teams edge, and in a game with a total of 31, field position is huge. Iowa in this one.

This is just the second time Alabama will not be in the 4 team playoff. Many may question the motivation here, but with Young and Anderson the leaders on both sides of the ball opting in, it sets the tone for the Tide to show up big. The Alabama defense ranks 4th holding opponents to 90 yards per game below their average. Kansas St. had a great year, but I also think this is the biggest challenge they will face this season, and the best defense by far. The situation here compliments my thoughts, as the Tide fits a 83-39 ATS Bowl situation. Make the play on Alabama.

Wyoming is in a lot of trouble here. The Cowboy's will be without their top 4 running backs. This is a team that runs 37 times a game, and passes just 23. They are an above average running team, but a significantly below average passing team. QB Peasley threw just 9 TDs all season to 8 INTs. They also lose their top defensive player and both CB's. Ohio. U. improved on defense tremendously as the year went on. They allowed 561 yards per game in their first 6 and just 331 in their last 7. They are the better team here, especially with all the opt-outs by Wyoming. Make the play on Ohio, U.

This will be my strongest Bowl selection of the season, and my Bowl Game of the Year! Pittsburgh has the most significant Bowl opt-outs of any team. They will be without starting QB Slovis, and RB Israel Abanikanda who rushed for 1,431 yards and 20 TDs, along with 2 offensive lineman, all 4 team captains, and at least 5 defensive starters, are all out. UCLA who is the better team to begin with, is virtually in tact, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson has taken all the snaps in practice. This is also a big deal for the players on UCLA. They can tie a school record for wins in a season at 10 with a win here, and last season they all missed out on their Bowl game as it was cancelled due to Covid-19. The Pitt defense was very good, but they will be missing their top 2 tacklers, and 3 other significant starters. UCLA is in tact, and all in for this game, and the Pitt team that got here this season, for the most part, won't be in the building. This will also be challenging because to replace the replacement starters, the players getting time off the bench are 3rd on the depth chart. My NCAAF BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR is on UCLA!

The big news here is Texas RB Bijan Johnson has opted out along with his backup Roschon Johnson. The Horns will also be without one of their best defenders in LB DeMarvian Overshown.Quietly Washington QB Michael Pennix the nations leading passer will play and announced his return to Washington next year. The Huskies have had just 1 season with 11 or more wins since 2000, so this is a big deal for this team. Washington was just a dog once all season at Oregon as a 12 point dog and won out-right. Texas under-played their stats all-season, and this is not where they thought they would end up. The Huskies have a pair of 1000 yard receivers and the OL is one of the best in the nation allowing 7 sacks all season, and the defense recorded 35 sacks. Texas QB Ewers has been up and down all season, and he will have to do a whole lot more without his best 2 running backs. Ewers completed just 56% of his passes. Washington fits a 50-27 ATS Bowl situation as well. Make the play on Washington.

This was a disappointing year for Oklahoma at 6-6. They barely qualified for a Bowl game, and this is a team used to playing for Championships. The 6 wins were the fewest since 1998. The Sooners allowed 41 or more points in 5 of their 9 Big-12 games. They will be without RB Gray who opted out, and with that he takes 1,364 yards and 11 TDs. They are also without both tackles on the OL. Oklahoma gave up just shy of 500 yards per game in Big-12 play, and allowed over 200 rushing yards. Florida St. is vastly under the radar. They average 2 yards per play better than their opponents on the season. The defense is strong and held opponents to 70 yards per game below their average. Down 2 on the OL and a Florida St. team that had 34 sacks, Gabriel will be under siege all game. Florida St. could get to 10 wins for the first time since 2016, and have no significant opt outs, which tells me they are coming for this game. Make the play on Florida St.

What a disappointing finish for Syracuse that opened 6-0, but finished 7-5. This is a favorable match up for Minnesota. Syracuse was beaten on the ground in their 5 game losing streak allowing 230 rushing yards a game, and Minnesota behind Ibrahim who accounted for 19 TD's. Minnesota had a 3 game losing streak, but QB Morgan was injured and Ibrahim missed a game. Syracuse will play this game without 3 All ACC defensive backs, and RB Tucker, and their LT. Minnesota held 8 opponents to under 300 total yards, and allowed just 13.3ppg on the season and just 9ppg in their last 5. I think this game is uncontested. Make the play on Minnesota.

This game stinks from the standpoint that Ole Miss is a much better team than Texas Tech. It has "sucker bet" written all over it. Ole Miss got off to a 7-0 start to a very kind schedule. During those 7 games they averaged 40.8ppg and allowed just 17.3, with a winning margin of +23.5ppg. Down the stretch Ole Miss went 1-4 and averaged 24.8ppg and allowed 33.8ppg, or a margin of -9ppg. That is a swing of -32.5ppg. Texas Tech never seemed to be healthy at QB, but Tyler Shough is healthy and will likely start. He has passed for 7.7 yards per attempt which is the best of the 3 QB's that have all thrown 125 passes or more this season. He is also the best runner of the 3. This game also fits a situation that is 47-14 ATS in Bowl games. Make the play on Texas Tech.

These games always look like blow out winners to the heavy chalk. North Carolina has had a lot of opt outs. They still have Drake Maye at QB and I think the line here has been inflated too much. Oregon was sitting at 8-1 with eyes on making the 4-team playoff but dropped 2 of their final 3 games, so motivation here may be called into question. December Bowl games with a line of +10.5 to +18.5 are 49-28 ATS. Make the play on North Carolina.

This was an unexpected season at Kansas as the Jayhawks are excited to be participating in their first Bowl game since 2008. Arkansas comes limping into this Bowl game at 1-3 in their lst 4 and was abused by Ole Miss who put up over 700 yards on the Hog`s defense. They followed that up by allowing close to 500 yards vs a medicore Missouri offense. They will also be missing their center, 2 linebackers, and a starting safety. Their defensive coordinator Barry Odom is off to UNLV. I don`t see Arkansas showing up here, while Kansas should be sky high. This game also fits a 87-51 ATS situation on the Jayhawks. Make the play on Kansas.

The Central Florida Knights have played in some big Bowl games in recent years, but this will not be one of them. I question their motivation here. Duke Coach Mike Elko has done a great job at Duke in his first year, as Duke was forecast to finish last in the ACC. Redshirt freshman QB Riley Leonard had a lot to do with that throwing 20 TD passes to just 6 INT's. Leonard also led the Blue Devils in rushing (11 TDs). Central Florid has had multiple opt-outs and QB John Rhys-Plumlee is not 100%. Make the play on Duke.

Oklahoma St. has seen a lot of players opt out of this game and head to the portal, or to prepare for the NFL draft, or are injured. They will be without their starting QB, and have 10 players in the transfer portal, several of which are key contributors. The Olahoma St. offense bogged down in the 2nd half of the season as the competition ramped up. The Cowboys managed to average 13.6ppg in their last 5, and with their QB out and star running back Dominic Richardson off to Baylor, can't see that changing especially against a strong defensive team in Wisconsin. Wisconsin will be without its QB as well, but the Badgers have always been a strong running team and I think they are going to pound the rock in this one with success. Make the play on Wisconsin.

Since the start of the 2020 season Coastal Carolina is 31-6. However half of those 6 losses have come in their last 6 games. Those 3 losses shows the weakness of this year's team as their opponents scored 45 points or more in all of them. The offense has not been delivering either as the Chanticleers have averaged under 24ppg in their last 7 contests. They are a 9-3 team that has out-gained their opponent by 1 yard per game. The defense is worse than the offense is good. Coastal Carolina has had a few starters opt out as well. Grayson McCall will start for them at QB, but he is heading for the transfer portal and has dealt with injuries late in the season. East Carolina has a better offense and a better defense, and a pretty good Qb of their own in Holton Alhers. I like East Carolina in this one.

Utah St. has not been very good from the line of scrimmage this season. The Aggies were almost a yard worse in yards per play margin than their opponents and ranked 112th in that department. They were actually out-scored by over a TD a game this season. They will not have their best player on offense in RB Calvin Tyler wh rushed for over 1,000 yards on the season. The Memphis Tigers were in just about every game they played this season. Their 5 losses show 4 of them were one-possession games. They did not win a 1 possession game all season at 0-4. The Aggies went 4-0 in one-possession games so you can see where these teams could be a lot more distant from each other. If Memphis just won half of them they would be 9-3. Make the play on Memphis.

Both Georgia Southern and Buffalo limped their way into a Bowl game as each team enters at 6-6 for the season. neither team has defended well and the Buffalo offense is well below average as well. The biggest edge in this game belongs to Georgia Southern. Clay Helton came in and abandoned the triple-option, and has an offense that generates 469 yards per contest. Kyle Vantrease the Georgia Southern Qb spent most of his college career in Buffalo, so you would have to think he is primed for this meeting. I like Georgia Southern in this one.

Bowling Green will be playing in their first Bowl game since 2016. This team has made a lot of progress over the last few years. The Falcons were 0-12 in 2020, and last year improved to 4 wins. This year they brought back 18 starters and had a winning record in the MAC at 5-3. This team can really get after the QB as they finished 9th in the nation in sacks with 37. They have a much better upside than N. Mexico St. as they have 3 outright upsets on the season. New Mexico St. is also 6-6 and had 2 wins vs FCS teams, and averaged just 19.1ppg vs FBS competition. The Aggies had the 131st ranked schedule, so a lot of cream puffs to get here. I think Bowling Green is hnds down better and it should show in this contest. This game is just over 100 miles from the Bowling Green campus, so it should be more like a home game. Make the play on Bowling Green.

The biggest upset of the season was Middle Tennessee's win at Miami. They were a 25.5 point dog going into that game. For some reason after that magic moment, the Blue Raiders just had nothing in the tank and finished their last 8 games at 2-6 ATS. Middle Tennessee was -240 yards per game against winning teams. San Diego St. finished the season as a much improved team as they logged a 5-2 record down the stretch. This team defends well every year and allowed just 20ppg.A lot of distance between these teams. I will lay the points and play on San Diego St.

The NY Giants have struggled after opening the season at 6-1. The Giants have been substantially out-gained in their last 4 games, and the win vs Washington last week was a lucky one as they were out-gained by 100 yards. Minnesota is coming off a game where they were down 33 and ended up winning in what was to be the biggest comeback in NFL history. The Giants just are not a very good team, but things have broken just right for them, and they are probably going to make the playoffs. The Giants are in a huge negative situation for this game that is 14-47 ATS. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Kansas City Chiefs fit into a huge late season home favorite situation. From week 13 on a home favorite of 10 to 17 points are 160-90 ATS since 1993 against an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .630. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Detroit Lions have played very well and have a shot at making the playoffs. I think they will be dealt a blow here as they fit into a very ugly 77-147 ATS situation. Make the play on Carolina.

This will be the 7th straight Bowl for Wake Forest. Wake Forest started the season 3-0 but lost a heart breaker in OT to Clemson, and then got a huge win over Florida St. Things went downhill from their as they lost 4 of their last 5 games to finish 7-5. Missouri had a struggle offensively, but the defense held 6 opponents to fewer than 300 total yards, and they won their last 2 to become Bowl eligible. Wake's last 4 losses all came as a favorite, and with rumors floating that QB Sam Hartman is heading to the transfer portal after this game, I like Missouri here.

Louisiana comes into this game as a marginal Bowl qualifier at 6-6. A lot of these marginal Bowl qualifiers tend to do very well in Bowl games. The opponent usually isn't very motivated facing them, and they are playing for a winning season. This is close to a home game for Louisiana and a team that is .500 or worse in a Bowl game and playing a team better than .500 are 88-66 ATS. Bowl games are more situational than regular season games. Bowl teams that are 6-6 are 93-68 ATS in December Bowls. Make the play on Louisiana.

Since a huge upset of Arkansas the Liberty Flames have flamed out. They closed the season with 3 straight losses as a double-digit favorite, and head to this Bowl game fitting a bowl situation that is 107-155 ATS. Meanwhile Toledo comes in fitting a strong 21-4 ATS situation. Make the play on Toledo.

Chris Creighton has certainly elevated the program at Eastern Michigan. His team won 8 games this season. That is the best mark since 1987 or 35 years ago. They are 0-4 in Bowl games, so this is an important game, and Eastern Michigan is now 35-10-1 ATS as a dog. Make the play on Eastern Michigan.

The UConn Huskies fit a bowl situation that plays on 6-6 teams in December Bowls, when the opponent has more than 6 wins. These teams are 47-26 ATS as a dog. If you consider the money line they win 46.2% of all games.Make the play on UConn.

The San Francisco 49ers lost their QB, but they will be facing a Tampa Bay team that has not found offensive answers all season. The Bucs average just 18.1ppg. The 49ers have won 5 straight games, and the defense is highly responsible for the streak as they have held their last 5 opponents to 11.4ppg. I don't think the Niners are going to have to do a lot of scoring to win and cover this o e. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Kansas City Chiefs have once again established themselves as the team to beat in the AFC. They will seek redemption in Cincinnati for not finding their way back to the Super Bowl. Joe Mixon suffered a concussion and it appears he is on the fence of playing at this time. The Chiefs are rolling with 5 straight wins, and Pat Mahomes is dealing at a high level. The Chiefs are averaging 364 passing yards per game in their last 5. They are also averaging 489 yards a game, so the running game is working as well. I don't think the Bengals can keep up here. Make the ply on Kansas City.

Both the Miami Dolphins and the San Francisco 49ers are playing at a high level. The Dolphins have won 5 straight, and the Niners 4 straight. The Dolphins 5 wins has come vs opponents that are just 16-39-1 SU and none had a winning record. Their 3 previous games were all losses, so they have not beaten a team with a winning record in their last 8 games. Miami has scored 30+ points in 4 straight games winning them all. A team in the NFL that accomplishes that have been 45-61-1 ATS in their next game. Since 2009 when a pair of teams square off in the NFL and both are on 4 game winning streaks or longer, the home favorite is 13-5 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.