Sports Picks & Predictions

The Boise St. Broncos took apart Fresno St. in their regular season meeting 40-20. That was without Fresno St. QB Jake Haener for Fresno St. A lot has changed since then. Fresno St. has won 7 straight games, the last 5 with Haener. It was an easy part of the schedule but having Haener back has not moved the needle much offensively. Boise St. fired their offensive coordinator, and changed their QB as well. Boise St. went from a significantly poor offensive team into a well above average running teams. The changes since that game have been more positively significant for Boise St. than Fresno St. Fresno St. defends the run poorly, so the Broncos will be attacking the weak point of the defense with their strength. I think this is an even better matchup than the previous one for Boise St. Make the play on Boise St.

There is a hue difference from Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall to anyone that ever played QB at Coastal Carolina.  The difference from him at QB vs anyone else is about 1.5 yards per play, and that has translated to about 10ppg worse offensively. Another factor is ball security. McCall had 7 INTs in 3 seasons, and just 1 this year. Guest, his replacement has thrown 4 in just 43 attempts. Last week vs James Madison, Coastal Carolina averaged just 2.8 yards per play in a 47-7 loss. Troy has a very strong defense and has allowed just 13ppg in their last 7. Coastal Carolina is offensive dependent to win games as they have a poor defense. I think this one is another blowout. My NCAAF Conference Championship Game of the Year is on Troy.

The game between Akron and Buffalo has been rescheduled for December 2, after the massive snowstorm in Buffalo cancelled the game back in November. This is an effort by the league, and Buffalo to give another MAC team the chance to be Bowl eligible as Buffalo is 5-6. The Bulls are not a Bowl quality team by recent play. They were 5-3 needing just 1 win in their final 4 games to become eligible, and they struck out in the first 3. Akron has been so bad for so long and their 2-9 record this season doesn't show any change on the surface. Akron has improved considerably and won their last game against Northern Illinois in impressive fashion behind back up QB Undercuffler. It doesn't matter who starts, as Irons and Undercuffler are pretty much a wash. Buffalo is a horrible -1.4 yards per play from the line of scrimmage, while Akron is just -0.9/ The Zips have out-gained their last 4 opponents, and this team is on the improve. The line here is a reputation line, and significantly inflated. Make the play on Akron.

These teams come into this game with similar records, but Atlanta has been very fortunate to be 5-6 on the season. Atlanta has now been out-gained in 10 straight games, and 24 of their last 27. That bubble is going to burst facing a team that is winning, and deserving to win. Washington is 5-1 in their last 6 games. Washington doesn't beat themselves as the Commanders have turned the ball over just 8 times in their last 8 games. Atlanta is losing the line of scrimmage by -75 yards per game, and the Commanders come in at a positive 12. The luck runs out on Atlanta here, make the play on Washington.

Baltimore may be 7-3 on the season but they have not looked like a 7-3 team. The Ravens have out-gained their opponents by just 14 yards per contest, and find themselves in a lot of close games. The Ravens 10 games show that 6 of those have been decided by 5 or fewer points either way. Jacksonville is slowly getting better as the Jags are +4 yards per game from the line of scrimmage, and it has been a considerable amount of time since we have seen that. The Jags are even better at home where they are +96 yards per game which is considerably better than the Raven;s on the road. This game also fits a situation that is 96-61 ATS and is on the Jags. Make the play on Jacksonville.

When the Broncos traded for Russell Wilson they thought they punched their ticket to the playoffs, and beyond. That has not materialized as the Broncos own just a 3-7 record. The Denver offense has not scored more than 23 points all season, and has been held to 16 or fewer points in 8 of their 10 games. Carolina comes into this game an even worse 3-8. The Panthers are on their 3rd QB as Sam Darnold will get the start. This is a game vs a pair of offensively handicapped teams, but Denver has a much better defense. Darnold's numbers a year ago are even worse than the yards per play the Carolina offense has generated so far, so this looks like a downgrade. I think Denver comes out on the right side of this one. Make the play on Denver.

This is going to be a tough spot for Stanford. The Cardinal are just 3-8 and are off a loss against their arch rival Cal in their last game. What stung more is they led the game and let it slip away. There was a lot of mental and physical energy used in that game. Stanford has no offense, and 4 RB's are out or questionable from an offense that has scored 85 total points in its last 6 games, topping out at 20. BYU won a big game vs Stanford, and two in a row and are now at 6-5 and bowl eligible. Stanford is now 6-11 ATS following the Cal game. Play on BYU.

Penn St. is 9-2 on the season, with losses to a pair of unbeaten teams in Michigan and Ohio St. While they aren't on the level of playoff teams, they have done extremely well otherwise. Penn St. has beaten 7 opponents by a combined 218 points or by 31ppg. The defense has allowed 17 points or less in 8 games this season. Michigan St, still has suspension and injury issues and lost to Indiana last week giving up 38 points. I think the Nittany Lions are playing as good as anyone right now winning their last 2 games by a combined score of 85-10. One more time for 10 wins. Make the play on Penn St.

When you look at what UT San Antonio has done the last couple of years, the program is thriving. They will be heading to the Conference USA Title game next week once again. UTEP was pounded by UTSA last year 44-23 at home. I think things will b different this year, and we lean on last year to offer the logic as to why? Last year the Roadrunners were unbeaten with the same scenario awaiting them. They were heading to the Conference Championship Game the following week. They ended up playing North Texas as an unbeaten ranked team, and even under those circumstances they pulled most of their starters in the 2nd quarter, and that included QB Harris. They ended up losing that game 45-23 as a 10 point favorite. UTEP is negative from the line of scrimmage this season, but they have out-gained their schedule of opponents by 36 yards per game because they average 10 more plays than their opponents. UTSA went into the North Texas game last year, without much of a game plan as the starters were not going to be in the game long. If they did that a year ago with an unbeaten ranked team, it certainly makes sense we see that again, which would make this line advantageous for UTEP. The Miners are 5-6 and can mke a bowl with a win. They may have a shot, but covering should certainly be very likely. My NCAAF GAME OF THE MONTH IS ON UTEP.

There is a good chance at 4-7 on the season that Kent St. injured QB Collin Schlee will not play in this game. That is a huge downgrade to the Kent St. offense. Schlee completed 59% of his passes but back uo Devin Kargman has completed just 46%. When Schlee was injured last game Kargman ran the offense for 6 drives, all 6 were 3 and out and turned a likely win into a loss. Buffalo is 5-6 and is needing a win to become Bowl eligible, and I think they catch a break here. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Castal Carolina offense is highly dependent on QB Grayson McCall. McCall has suffered a season ending foot injury, and will not play against James Madison. McCall had thrown for 9.5 yards per attempt on the season, and 21 Tds to just 1 INT. His replacement Jarrett Guest has thrown just 20 passes all season, and completed just 45%. He also has not thrown a TD pass, but in his 20 attempts he has thrown 3 INTs and has been sacked 3 times. James Madison is vulnerable in the air, but Coastal Carolina does not have the ability to exploit that without McCall. James Madison allows 2.6 rushing yards per carry and Coastal Carolina is pass dependent and their running game is limited. James Madison QB Todd Centaio has been around for 6 years, and has had a stellar season with 21 TDs and 5 INTs and has been sacked just 13 times. JMU is a balanced offense, but will have its way with a rather weak Coastal secondary. Make the play on James Madison.

UCLA had their biggest game of the season last vs USC. They suffered a close loss, and I am not sure how much of a full tank they bring into this game at Cal. Cal has been a great play on team as a home dog where they are 26-10 ATS with Coach Justin Wilcox, and when the line is 7 or more that is 6-1 ATS. Lots looking the way of the Bears in this one. Make the play on California.

Arkansas had 3 straight home games to become bowl eligible, but they lost to both Liberty and LSU, and needed a big win. They took down a very good Ole Miss team with ease, and come into this game against Missouri at 6-5. This team hasn't been on the road in a month, and have to have that satisfied feeling off their big win. Arkansas has a strong balanced offense, but what the offense takes, the defense has given back. They average 466 yards per game, but the defense allows 452. Missouri has a plus defense, but the offense is average, but they are +25 yards a game, which is a better net than Arkansas. The combination of a satisfied Arkansas team, slight stat edge, and the fact that Missouri is bowl eligible with a win, makes the Tigers the more motivated team. Make the play on Missouri.

Texas is likely the best 7-4 team in the country. They have had a difficult schedule, and lost some tough games. The Horn`s are 1.9 yards a play combining offense and defense that puts them in elite status. Baylor has had a good season but coming off a physical and highly emotional 1 point loss to TCU is likely to take its toll today. I`m on this game also because of huge situations favoring Texas, and equally huge situations against Baylor. Make the play on Texas.

The Minnesota Vikings were exposed last week by Dallas. The Vikings took a 40-3 beat down. This off a very fortunate win vs Buffalo where they got all the breaks, and had a 2 turnover advantage to squeak out a 33-30 win. The Vikings have been turnover dependent as they have been out-gained in their last 5 games by an average of 408-316, nearly 100 yards a game. That won't continue to produce an 8-2 record. New England has become one of the top defensive teams in the NFL. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games. The Patriots in the 5 wins have out-scored their opponents 125-38 allowing a stingy 7.6ppg. What does that mean for NE going forward? The Patriots are 19-4 ATS when they are off 3 straight game allowing 17 points or fewer, as long as they are not favored by 10 or more, and it is not week 17. Moreover, an NFL team off a game where they held their previous opponent to fewer than 7 first downs is 50-18-3 ATS, including 16-3 ATS as a road dog. Make the play on New England.

The NY Giants have been a surprising team this season at 7-3 on the season. The Giants have been aided by luck and a soft schedule and I think that catches up to them on Turkey Day. The Giants are upside down on both sides of the line of scrimmage, unbefitting to a 7-3 team. Dallas is above water on both sides of the line of scrimmage. When Dak Prescott is at QB the Cowboys have averaged 28.8ppg on the season, and have out-scored opponents by 11.2ppg. Thanksgiving favorites have ruled the roost at 35-16 ATS in the last 51 games. The Cowboys last 5 wins have come by 12 points or more, and I expect no less here. Mae the play on Dallas.

The Detroit Lions have been playing well and have collected 3 dog wins in their last 3 games. They will be a home dog on Thanksgiving as they host the Buffalo Bills. The Bills broke a 2 game losing streak with a neutral field win over Cleveland 31-23. The Lions have not been able to get it done on Thanksgiving, especially in the role of a dog. The Lions are a woeful 1-11 ATS losing by an average of 16.8ppg as a Thanksgiving home dog of 3 or more points. Thursday NFL favorites are 162-120-8 ATS as they have the advantage over a weaker opponent on the short week. NFL favorites of -9 or more points are 29-14-1 ATS, winning by an average of 15.2ppg. Make the play on Buffalo.

If there was ever a smoke and mirrors team it has been the Minnesota Vikings so far this season. The Vikings are 8-1 on the season, but have been out-gained by 25 yards per game, and out=gained by 0.5 yards per play. I'm not sure if I have ever seen an 8-1 team that far upside down. I think Dallas in not only the better team, but they also apply to a 98-63 ATS situation that will have me backing them in this one. Make the play on Dallas.

THE PLAY IS ON HOUSTON (SYSTEM IS AGAINST WASHINGTON)

p:ADW and p:line>10 and WP>25 and WP=-3 and season>=1990 and total

The NY Giants are 7-2 on the season, and have made dramatic strides over their recent past. They have arguably the best running back in the league in Saquon Barkley, and QB Daniel Jones has cut way down on his bad choices and enters this game with just 2 INTs on the season. Detroit just seems to keep having the same issues year after year. Jared Goff will be in cold weather where he has historically struggled in his career, as his passing numbers drop off the cliff when the temperature reaches the 30s. It will be a windy day for this one and the Giants have the better running game behind Barkley and even Jones. I like the NY Giants in this one.

NY Jets QB Zach Wilson continues to struggle as he has just 4 TD passes on the season and 5 INTs. Those numbers could get worse after today's game in New England. Bill Belichick has a strong formula to defend against Wilson, and it has led Wilson to just 2 TD passes and 7 INTs in 3 games vs Belichick with a 50 passer rating. The loss of Breece Hall for the season has been felt and will be felt even more today. Bigger that all that the Jets won last week as a 10.5 point dog. An NFL team off a dog win when the line was greater than 10 points are 38-67-3 ATS in their next game. Huge letdown spot for the Jets. Make the play on New England.

The Chicago Bears love to run the ball and suddenly Justin Fields is the star of that running attack. The ball will be on the ground a lot this game, and that is going to keep Atlanta from taking advantage of the Bear`s weak secondary. The Bear`s have rushed for 238 or more yards in 5 straight games. Atlanta may be one of the worst 4-6 teams of all time as the Falcons have been out-gained by their opponents 9 times already this season, and under head coach Arthur Smith they have been out-gained in 23 of their 26 games. That is not conducive to winning. Make the play on Chicago.

It will be harder to find a game between two teams that started strong and have fallen apart. Syracuse appeared to be on their way to an elite season. The Orange came out of the gate 6-0, but have fallen on hard times losing 4 straight. Wake Forest held a #10 ranking at one point, but they are just 2-4 in the ACC and have lost 3 straight, so something has to give here. This is a great match up for Syracuse. Wake loves to throw the ball, and has struggled running it all season. Their elite passing offense is going to face an elite Syracuse pass defense, that ranks #14 in the country. Cuse allows just 168 yards per game in the air, and turns teams over consistently well. Wake has turned the ball over 14 times in their last 4 games. It is hard to trust either team, but the line appears to be way off, and Wake Forest fits a situation that is 228-307-14 ATS with a subset of 90-143-4 ATS. I like Syracuse in this one.

Tennessee has it all over SC, and should win and cover this game rather comfortably. Huge road favorites are 191-154-2 ATS from greater than -21 as long as they have a winning percentage of .900 or better. Make the play on Tennessee.

The Florida St. season can be summed up by 3 consecutive losses to Wake Forest, NC State, and Clemson. All the games were close and Florida St. out-gained all 3 teams by a combined 1240-1091. Florida St. is one of the top teams in the country in yards per play margin, and could easily be 9-1 or 10-0 coming into this game. They have been 2.1 yards per play better than their schedule of opponents allow. LA Lafayette has no offense to speak of, and overall they have been even at the line of scrimmage for the season, but when you factor in strength of schedule the edge for Florida St. increases substantially. Florida St. since their 3 losses is 3-0 and has out-scored those 3 opponents 124-22 and neither of their last 2 opponents have gotten in the end-zone. This looks like a 30+ point game to me. Make the play on Florida St.

I like playing a team that is on the brink. The Browns surely fit the bill at 3-5. A loss here to Miami and the Browns season may be sunk. The Browns defense is finally delivering. The last 2 games vs potent offenses in Baltimore and Cincinnati the Browns defense allowed 254 yards to Baltimore and just 229 to Cincinnati. The Dolphins went 4 straight games not topping the 17 point mark until they scored 66 combined points the last 2 games vs Chicago, and Detroit. Tua Tagovailoa is having a good season, but he took on Baltimore and Buffalo when they had depleted defenses, and has crushed teams with poor pass defenses. The Browns represent a much stiffer challenge. He will be under pressure in this game, and Denzel Ward returns to the secondary for Cleveland this week. This game fits a situation that is 94-57 ATS and I'm making the play on Cleveland.

This game will be played in Germany. Tom Brady has now thrown for 100,000 yards and while he is still a serviceable NFL QB the numbers are eroding. Brady is averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt, by far the lowest in his career, and has just 10 TD passes. The Bucs are averaging just 18ppg, and have not covered any of their last 7 games. Seattle QB Geno Smith has surprised. He has a 107.2 QB rating along with 15 TDs and 4 INTs. The Seattle defense after allowing 34.5ppg over 4 games is now allowing 16.5ppg in their last 4. The Tampa offense can't run the ball, and move the ball slowly in the passing game and find it hard to sustain and finish drives. I like Seattle in this one.

Florida St. lost 3 games in a row and it looked like another tough season. Since that point the light went on for this team and they are playing like a top 10 team. The Noles have won 2 straight games by a combined score of 86-19. Perhps what goes unnoticed because they are 6-3 is that Florida St. ranks 5th in the country in yards per play. They are out-gaining opponents by 2 yards per snap, nd if you do that you win a lot of games. Dino Babers had his team at 6-0, but has lost the magic as the Orange have lost 3 straight. They have been really hurt by injuries, and the line here says it looks like QB Garrett Shrader is going ti miss his 2nd straight game. Syracuse had 9 points and 145 total yards without him last week. The Noles are also in a momentum situation that is 87-36 ATS and I will make the play on Florida St.

I wasn`t surprised to see an 8-0 Clemson team make the top 4 slots for the playoffs 2 weeks ago. This team is not the same as the Clemson teams we have seen in the past, despite the gaudy record. They were exposed by Notre Dame last week and blown out. The proof is this. Prior to this season Clemson played 22 straight games at home and were posted as a double-digit favorite in all of them. This year they have played 5 home games and have been a double-digit favorite in just 1 of them. Their 4 toughest games vs Wake Forest, Florida St., Notre Dame, and Syracuse saw them go 3-1 but they were actually out-scored in the 4 games. Their last 3 games has seen them out-scored 84-5, allowing 28ppg, and were out-gained in 2 of them. Louisville is 6-3 and has it going with 4 straight wins by a combined score of 140-58, and has played the more difficult schedule. Louisville has out-gained their opponents this season by an average of 75 yards a game, to Clemson`s 71, and out-gaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play to Clemson`s 1.0, and to a slightly stronger schedule. This says Louisville is actually a slightly better team, and the only reason Clemson is favored by a TD is they are Clemson, but not the Clemson we are used to. Make the play on Louisville.

The 4-3 LA Chargers will make the cross-country trip to take on the 4-4 Atlanta Falcons. I think the market has caught up to Atlanta. The Falcons opened the season with 6 straight spread wins, but has dropped their last 2. Atlanta is going to run the ball even when they are behind. They are the only team in the NFL that has run more than they passed in every game. That typically means they are averaging fewer yards per play than their opponents, and fewer plays in general (-6 on the season). They are 4-4 but are being out-gained by just shy of 100 yards per game. The Chargers have not fared well stopping the run, and I assume Atlanta will have success running here. The difference is in the passing game where the Chargers throw effectively and often. The difference between the Atlanta run edge and the Chargers passing edge is huge in yards per play for LA. If you are generating  a couple yards per play more than your opponent, and getting significantly more snaps in a addition to that on a yards per point basis the score starts to get away from the running team, even if they have success. I also have 3 significant situations all lining up with LA. My NFL GOY is on the LA Chargers.

This game is a weather play as 41 MPH wind gusts are expected in Cincinnati. The wind does not impact the running game of Navy, but it will certainly impact the passing game of Cincinnati. I like Navy in this one.

TCU QB Chandler Morris went down 3 weeks ago and the TCU offense has not skipped a beat. The TCU offense is generating 9.7 yards per pass attempt and it will be difficult for Texas Tech to both stop, and keep up with TCU in this game. Texas Tech has a below average offense, and slightly better than average defense, but neither will be enough to allow them to hang with the unbeaten Horned Frogs. TCU also applies to a situation that is 88-49 ATS. Make the play on TCU.

Air Force and Army is always a heated rivalry game among Military schools. This is not a vintage Army running attack and the big rushing yards they have generated has come against Villanova, Colgate, and LA Monroe. The Army is running for just 4.3 yards per carry in other games. These Military games come down to who can stop the run better. The numbers say the better run defense covers better than 65% of the time when the line isn`t huge. Air Force applies to a lot of favorable situations beyond that. Make the play on Air Force.

The Green Bay Packers have lost 3 straight games, and looked like a horrible team in doing so. Aaron Rodgers is having his worst year statistically to this point. The Packers offense is dead, and the defense is starting to crumble as well. Buffalo looks like a Super Bowl team, and a team that has the appearance they could win this game by 20+. I get a feeling you are going to see a different Packer team tonight. History certainly supports those thoughts. Sunday Night Football double-digit dogs are 28-15-1 ATS, as they tend to be inspired by the bright lights. The Packers fit a situation that is in part due to their poor ats record and Buffalo's good ats record. That situation is 88-46-6 ATS, including a perfect 8-0 ATS on Sunday Night Football with 4 outright upsets. Make the play on Green Bay.

The Minnesota Vikings are off to a great start at 5-1. Most will see them as a 3.5 point home favorite against the 3-4 Cardinals, which is barely above standard home field advantage, and look towards the Vikings. The record may say 5-1, but Minnesota is just 2-4 ATS and each of their last 4 games , all wins were by 1 score. The Vikings have played the easiest schedule in the league and despite a 5-1 record and a soft schedule they are -40 yards per game from the line of scrimmage. Arizona is just 3-4 but the 4 losses have come against Kansas City, the LA Rams, Seattle, and Philadelphia. Lost 20-17 to the Eagles and held them to a season low points. All things considered the Cardinals have been the better team and also apply to a situation that is 117-71 ATS. Make the play on Arizona.

The Chicago Bears got their biggest win of the season as they dominated New England. That might work against them in this one. An NFL team that won their last game straight up as a dog of 6 or more, and is a dog of 6 or more in their next game are a woeful 20-52-1 ATS. Huge letdown spot for Chicago. Make the play on Dallas.

All you have to do is see the 5-2 NY Jets are a home dog to the New England Patriots who are 3-4. For many that won't look right. Jets QB Zach Wilson has yet to prove he is an NFL QB. He has a career 70.5 passer rating and sits at 73 thus far this season. His 10 career TDs are fewer than his career INTs at 13. The loss of Brice Hall is substantial as he was carrying the Jet's offense. The Jets also have offensive line issues with several out or playing injured. New England is 30-6 ATS off a loss since the start of 2003 in the regular season to a line that does not exceed -4. (including 3-0 ATS this year). I like the New England Patriots in this one.

The Georgia Bulldogs have been the best team in NCAA Football over their last 26 games where they are 25-1 SU. They will take on Florida in Jacksonville, Fla. Georgia has out-gained opponents 527-247, and their defense has been so good they have run +16 plays a game more than their opponent. They out-gain opponents from both sides of the line of scrimmage by 2.7 yards per play. Florida comes in at 4-3, but the Gators are being out-gained by 6 yards per game. The Bulldogs are 65-10 SU and 45-30 ATS since the start of the 2017 season, allowing 14.8ppg, and in their 25-1 SU current run they allow 9.9ppg. The Bulldogs fit a situation that is 93-31 ATS. Make the play on Georgia.

Illinois has not won 7 games since 2011. They have won 9 games or more just 2 times since 1990. Illinois lost to Indiana 23-20 back in game 2. They gave the game away as they dominated the stats, but 4 turnovers did them in. Since that game they are 5-0 and have allowed 33 total points or 6.6ppg. Illinois has a top 3 defense in the country, and have out-gained opponents 418-225 and is allowing 3.8 yards per play on the season. Nebraska is considered to be strong offensively, but they are out-gaining Illinois by just 6 yards per game. Defensively, Nebraska allows 472 yards per game, or 250 yards more than Illinois. These numbers show a statistical easy double-digit win for Illinois. No team has out-gained Illinois this season, and I don't see that changing here. Make the play on Illinois.

Iowa opened the season with what looked like one of the worst offenses in the country. They were missing their top WR which hampered an already bad offense losing their top weapon. He is back and the offense has improved, but still considerably below average. The Hawkeyes are off 3 consecutive games vs Ohio St., Michigan, and Illinois, the top 3 teams in the Big-10. Michigan and Ohio St. are elite offensive teams, but no other team has scored more than 10 points against them. Northwestern scored 7 points in each of their top 2 games vs Penn St. and Wisconsin, and it is likely they won't get more than that here. Iow is a top 3 defense in the country and a shutout is not out of the question. Make the play on Iowa.

UL Lafayette and Southern Miss are both changed teams since the beginning of the season. Southern Miss caught a bad break in game one when they lost starting QB Ty Keyes to a  season ending injury. He has been replaced by the tandem of Wilke and Lange, but each has been a significant drop off from Keyes. UL Lafayette has seen just the opposite take place. Chandler Fields was injured, and the QB duties were taken over by Ben Wooldridge, and the offense has been a lot better. Southern Miss has turned the ball over 17 times on the season, while the aggressive defense of UL Lafayette has forced 17 turnovers of their own. Add it all up and UL Lafayette has emerged the better team and should come out victorius on the road. Make the play on UL Lafayette.

Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones? I don't think it makes much difference. The game plan may be different but each has proven capable of moving the offense for New England. They are separated by 0.2 yards per pass attempt. The Patriots defense has been a lot better than expected. Justin Fields is used carefully and the Bears gain more ground yards than air yards. The Pats will stack the box and it will be a long night for Chicago. The Bears have 2 wins, and one was over San Francisco at home. They were out-gained by 125+ yards, and the game was played in a quagmire. Their only other win was against Houston. The Pats are averaging nearly 30ppg in their last 4, and should get enough points to get separation from a bad Bear's team. The Bear's fit a 58-95 ATS situation. Make the play on New England.

San Francisco has been a tough team to figure out. The 49ers are just 3-3 and the 3 losses have come against Chicago, Denver, and Atlanta. They managed to score a combined 34 points against those 3 teams, so the offense has really struggled. Injuries have played a big role in some of the inconsistencies, but they better be consistent here. The Chiefs are coming off a tough loss. Kansas City is now 10-1 SU when coming off a loss in their last 11, and have scored 20 points or better in all of them, so San Francisco is likely going to have to find some offense to win this one. Kansas City is the better team and the Chiefs thrive off a loss behind Mahomes. This game also fits a situation that is 138-84 ATS. I'll make the play on Kansas City.

The NY Giants are a surprising 5-1 on the season. Last week if you look at the box score they were out-gained 406-238. When an NFL team is out-gained by their opponent by 150 or more yards they win 13.7% of the time. So the Giants win was a fluke, and I think the line is being held down by a season full of luck. The Giants rank 27th in yards per play margin despite playing the 26th ranked schedule. Jacksonville is a top 10 team in yards per play, vs a top 12 schedule. All 4 of Jacksonville losses have been by 1 possession. The Giants are a 5-1 team that is consistently losing the battle at the line of scrimmage, as their opponents have out-gained them on the season. I have a betting formula, not a system, that is 206-147-9 ATS that applies to this game. Make the play on Jacksonville.

This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS and the play is on Tampa Bay.

Southern Miss is 3-3 on the season, and turnovers has had a lot to say about their outcomes. Their 3 losses to good teams in Miami, FL, Troy, and Liberty saw them lose the turnover battle 12-6. Their 3 wins they have just 4 total turnovers. Texas St. has a huge win over Appalachian St. as a 19 point under dog but has not done much otherwise with a offense that is well below average. Texas St. has run the ball for 86 yards or fewer in 5 of their 7 games, and they have been out-gained by 5 straight FBS opponents. It's clear that Southern Miss has the advantage in this game on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Southern Miss.

Oklahoma St. suffered their first loss of the season last week vs TCU. The big concern here is the Cowboy's allowed over 500 yards of offense for the third time this season. Oklahoma St. has now been out-gained by 4 teams on the season (C. Michigan,Baylor,Texas Tech, and TCU). Texas will be the best team they have faced all season, and the Horn's have played a much tougher schedule. This is also a tough spot for Oklahoma St. as a team with a 5-0 record or better off their first loss of the season have gone 157-199-6 ATS at 44.1%. Texas is clearly better than a TD than Oklahoma St. on the road. Make the play on Texas.

Clemson has a great reputation and as they come into this game at 7-0 it appears to the public that this is like the team's Clemson has fielded prior to last year. It isn't. When Clemson had their ultra good teams they had a better QB and a better defense, and typically out-gained opponents by 3 or more yards per play. This year that number is 1.1 yards per play better. That is a long way from what they used to be when they had a lofty ranking. Syracuse is vastly improved at 5-0. The Cuse has out-gained opponents by 2 yards per game to a schedule of teams that average just about equal to Clemson. This game fits a situation that is 44-24-4 ATS, which is based in part on taking dogs in games between unbeaten teams. Those numbers have been even better recently. Make the play on Syracuse.

The Denver Broncos offense has been awful. Many thought when Russell Wilson came over that the Denver offense would flourish. That has not been the case. The Broncos have scored 16 points or fewer in 4 of their 5 games. The good news is the defense has come to the rescue as the Bronco's defense has allowed 17 points or fewer in 4 of 5 games. Denver has not allowed over 200 passing yards all season and have held 3 opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards. The Chargers are offensive dependent, and I don't see them moving the ball a lot in this game. The Denver offense should be able to generate more points vs a banged up Charger's defense that has allowed 3 straight opponents to average over 400 yards. I like Denver in this one.

These plays are based on some line value and game situations. This one fits a situation that is 131-88 ATS and the play is on Philadelphia.

Looking at the stats for this game Buffalo has certainly out-played Kansas City, but digging deeper makes things look quite different. This will be Pat Mahomes 42nd career start at home. He was favored in all 41 up until this one. Mahomes and the Chiefs are 33-8 SU at home, so giving points to Mahomes at home is not very logical. There is also the Josh Allen numbers. Allen is just 19-16 SU in his 35 road starts. The Chiefs also have revenge from last year's playoff loss to the Bills. Arrowhead Stadium is the loudest stadium in the NFL, and it will be at its loudest for this one. Chiefs, and mMahomes sky high for this one, and you can't measure that in stats. Make the play on Kansas City.

The LA Rams have 20 players on the injury report this week. Their offensive line has taken a huge hit as they have lost almost everyone including a couple of backups. This isn't the Super Bowl team from last year. Matthew Stafford is taking a beating. The Rams offensive line has allowed 84 pressures already which is more than any other team. The Rams have scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of their 5 games this season and are 2-3. Carolina has lost games by 2 and 3 points, and are not as bad as their 2-3 record might suggest. They will have to go with PJ Walker in this one so I don't expect a lot of offense from Carolina either. A team that has scored 10 points or less in 2 straight games has occurred 529 times in the NFL and these teams average 18ppg in their next game. I think laying this many points with an offense that is really banged up is way too much. Make the play on Carolina.

The Indianapolis Colts are 2-2-1 and they have played one bad game all season, and it was against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts were completely shut down in that game losing 24-0. An NFL team that was shutout in their last meeting against a team covers 54.4% of all games when that opponent scored 24 or more points. That is a good starting point as I think these teams bring a little extra to these games. Turnovers have cost the Colts more than anything else, so it kind of makes them look like an inferior team. I would rank these teams pretty close to even from the line of scrimmage, but with a mental edge for revenge and home field, I like Indianapolis.

These plays are based on some line value and game situations. This one fits a situation that is 58-21 ATS and the play is on Baltimore.

This game fits a situation that has to do with certain teams off a shutout win and is 20-1 ATS. The play is on New England.

This game caps out at Washington -20.5 and fits a situation that is 87-56 ATS. The play is on Washington.

James Madison was one of the top FCS teams in the country. They made the jump to the FBS this season, and have started the season 5-0. They own a win over Appalachian St. who is a very solid team. Georgia Southern mad a huge change this season as they moved from the triple-option to a fast paced attack. That is going to be tough for them in this game because James Madison plays uptempo as well. Georgia Southern averages 80 plays a game and James Madison 77. The reason that is a problem for Georgia Southern is James Madison averages 2.3 yards per play than their opponents on the season and Georgia Southern is at a negative 0.2. James Madison also allows 1.6 yards per rushing attempt and there is a good chance they make Georgia Southern a one-dimensional team. I like James Madison big here.

Everywhere I look I see big names making big bets on Tennessee at home vs Alabama. I won't be with them or plenty of reasons. Nick Saban would not disclose if Bryce Young would be at QB for this game. I have a sneaky suspicion he will play. If he does not play I still like Alabama. Everyone is looking at last game with Jalen Milroe at QB. He threw just 19 times for 119 yards, but did throw 3 TD passes to 1 INT. If he plays, he will do more. Alabama set this game up for bettors jumping on Tennessee. They barely got past Texas A&M 24-20, and Tennessee is better. Alabama out-gained A&M, they beat them at the line of scrimmage 5.7 yards a play to 4.5. Alabama fumbled 3 times and lost them all. Tennessee has lost 15 straight games to Alabama by an average of 26ppg. Alabama is gaining 7 yards per carry against team's that average allowing 4.4. The Tide is also winning the line of scrimmage by averaging 7.5 yards per play and allowing 3.8. Tennessee is good but not in that ball-park. Alabama has also played a more difficult schedule. Alabama had a turnover margin of -3 against Texas A&M. NCAA teams that have a -3 turnover margin are 231-1335 SU, so they have to be pretty good to overcome what 85% of all teams fail at. The 4 turnovers by Alabama was just the 4th time they have had that many in the Saban era, and they won all 4. I like Alabama in this one.

NC State is 5-1 but they are also 3 points from being 3-3. They own a 1 point win vs East Carolina and a 2 point win over Florida St, and they were out-gained in both games. The only FBS team they have out-gained is Connecticut. That isn't the marker for a 5-1 team. The top 2 teams on their schedule to this point Clemson, and Florida St. gained 6 yards a carry against them. Syracuse is not only off a bye but their game before their bye was a 59-0 win over Wagner, so this is a fresh healthy team. The same can't be said with NC State who has struggled offensively all season, and now QB Devin Leary. None of this is a good situation on the road at the Carrier Dome which is a home field advantage again for this 5-0 Syracuse team. Make the play on Syracuse.

This game fits a situation that is 107-68 ATS and the play is on TCU

This game caps out to a line of -27 and it also fits a situation that is 55-17 ATS. The play is on UAB.

This game caps out with Ohio, U. the favorite by -3.5, and a situation that is 37-6 ATS. The play is on Ohio, U.

This is a huge game between a pair of unbeaten teams. The winner will come out of this as a playoff looking team while the loser will at least temporarily fall out of the conversation. Penn St. Coach James Franklin has a big piano on his back. He is 0-8 at Penn St. since he arrived when playing on the road vs a top 5 team. Penn St. overall has been even worse as the Nitany Lions are 0-15 straight up on the road vs a top 5 team. Penn St. has a potent running game thanks to freshman Nicholas Singleton who is averaging 7.3 yards per carry. This is a defense that is better than any Penn St. will have seen this year and overall Michigan has some crazy good numbers as they average 3 yards per play better than their opponent, while Penn St. is at 1.4. That is a huge difference, and at the same time Michigan will have the better QB in this game and also playing at home. I look for a solid home win by Michigan.

This game caps out to -20.5 so significant line value as well as a situation that is 138-88 ATS. The play is on Texas.

This game caps out to +13.5 and it also fits a situation that is 207-157 ATS. The play is on Auburn.

The Dallas Cowboys have been riding their back up QB Cooper Rush and he has really been impressive. The Rams on the other hand are in trouble. It isn't so much about Matthew Stafford as it is about the offensive line. The Rams offensive front is on life support and they allowed 23 pressures last week vs San Francisco. The Rams are 2nd from the bottom in the league in pass blocking efficiency and Dallas is getting pressure on 42% of all snaps. I don't see the Rams offense giving Stafford enough pressure, and this game appears to look very similar to last week for the Rams and that didn't work out very well. Make the play on Dallas.

Tampa Bay and Atlanta are both 2-2 on the season. That is where the similarities end. The Bucs have beaten the Falcons 3 straight times by margins of 17, 23, and 13. This is a game of mismatches and most of them go against Atlanta. The Bucs will dominant both sides of the line of scrimmage. Bucs are going to fired up after their disaster last week vs Pat Mahomes. Lay the bundle and play Tampa Bay.

Cleveland has gotten the best running game in the NFL. That means they are going to give the LA Chargers fits as the Chargers are horrible against the run. Cleveland has gained 171 or more yards rushing in every game this season, and this looks like it will add to that. The Chargers have a ton of injuries to some key players and this is not a good spot for them traveling to the Eastern time zone with a wounded team. Small home dogs with a good offense excel in the NFL. A home dog of 3.5 points or fewer that averages 360 or more yards per game are 126-90-6 ATS. I like Cleveland in this one.

Most bettors do not like to lay a lot of points. I never base a pick on the line, but the match up and history. The huge home favorites in the NFL have been cash cows. NFL home favorites of 11 or more points are 78-43-5 ATS, including 41-19-1 ATS if the home favorite has a winning percentage of .700 or better. Make the play on Buffalo.

Geno Smith is playing better than he has ever. Despite his efforts and the above average Seattle offense, the Seahawks defense has been brutally bad. Jameis Winston is not far behind at 7.5 yards per pass attempt but the Saints are strong defensively. Some of what Smith is doing is against bad defenses, but in 2 games vs a good defense the Seahawks have scored 17 and 7 points. The Saints are also in a great spot. A 1-3 NFL team facing an opponent off a win and as long as they are not a dog of 9 or more points have gone 64-29-3 ATS. Make the play on New Orleans.

UCLA is off to a 5-0 start to the season. They played their best opponent last week vs Washington and handed the Huskies their first loss of the season. It was 2 Washington turnovers that decided the game which ended in a one possession margin. While that is their biggest win, the Bruin`s are 5-0 to a schedule that ranks number 132 in the country so they haven`t exactly beaten good teams. Utah opened with a heart breaker in the swamp at Florida. They lost 29-26 but have won 4 straight. They are out-gaining opponents by more than 230 yards a game and out-scoring them by 24. They are catching UCLA off their biggest game this season to date, and may catch them at the right time. Utah has owned UCLA winning and covering the last 5 meetings. Utah has out-scored UCLA by 1135 total points in the last 5 meetings.I like Utah in this one.

The records of these teams coming into this game has this line super-inflated. There is no way Oklahoma St. is almost 10 points better than Texas Tech. Tech has played a significantly stronger schedule and is 3-2. Their 4 games vs FBS opponents show the Red Raiders have out-gained every one of them. They were -3 in turnovers vs NC State, and Kansas St. Oklahoma St. has been a breakeven team offense vs defense. They were out-gained by C. Michigan, and Baylor. he numbers in this game suggest a much lower line, but this game is being driven by national rankings, home field, and very misguided stats. I think Texas Tech has a shot at the straight up win, and I'll take the points and play on Texas Tech.

Virginia Tech has a very poor offense and are averaging just 18.2ppg, and just 16ppg in their 4 games vs FBS opponents. Pittsburgh is 3-2 and has covered just 1 game all season. The situations for this game are clearly in favor of Virginia teach. Conference road dogs of 6.5 or more points to a low total of 46 or fewer points are 261-155-15 ATS. Many will believe Pittsburgh will be geared up to erase their painful loss to Georgia Tech last week as a 21.5 point favorite, but a team off a loss as a -17 point favorite or higher has been 83-112-6 ATS. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

 UCF is the team carrying the reputation in this game, but despite a 3-1 record I think SMU is better on both sides of the ball. UCF generated 600 yards vs South Carolina St., and 653 against FAU. That makes the offense look way better than it is. The 2 better teams they faced saw them gain just 339 vs Louisville, and 333 vs Georgia Tech. SMU has played 2 teams better than UCF and lost by 1 possession or less in both. The Mustangs gained 476 yards vs TCU and 520 vs Maryland. The numbers show an edge here to SMU on both sides of the ball when adjusting for strength of schedule and input separating cupcakes vs legit teams. I think we have the wrong team getting points here, and I will make the play on SMU.

Buffalo heads to Baltimore today with redemption in mind. They lost to Miami last week 21-19 but the stats presented a different story. Buffalo may have lost but the stats show they out-gained Mimai 497-212. The perspective on that shows an NFL team that out-gains their opponent by 275 or more yards are 191-8 SU in the NFL. Buffalo remains the best team in the NFL so far, and I would expect they come out blazing in this one off a misleading loss. The Ravens own a loss to Miami also but the difference was they gave up 547 yards to the Dolphins. This isn't the Baltimore defense of recent years and the Buffalo defense has enough to slow the Ravens offense. I like Buffalo in this one.

Both Tennessee and Indianapolis saved their season last week. The Titans slipped past Las Vegas 24-22, while the Colts squeaked past Kansas City 20-17. They are both still in a must win situation as we head to week 4. Tennessee owns a win vs the only NFL team without a win and they have been out-gained by all 3 opponents on the season. Indianapolis is well positioned to slow the Titans running attack as they are allowing just 77 rushing yards per game. Recently the Titans have played well against the Colts but they remain 12-28 SU against Indianapolis in the last 40 meetings. Bigger than those numbers is a situation that is 77-34 ATS that favors the Colts in this one. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Cleveland Browns have gotten strong QB play out of Jacoby Brissett. He is doing just enough for the Cleveland ground game to control games. Brissett has 4 TD passes to just 1 INT. The Atlanta offense has been equally good behind Marcus Mariota, but the similarities change from there. They are getting ripped on the ground and through the air. The net per play for the Falcons has been negative yards per play. Cleveland should be able to run the ball and keep the worst part of the Atlanta team, their defense, on the field. The Browns are in a highly favorable 207-138 ATS situation as well. Make the play on Cleveland.

The Cincinnati offense has looked pretty good early on as they are off to a 3-1 start. They have been guilty of turning the ball over too much with 7 turnovers in their 4 games. Where this team doesn't resemble last year's team is on defense. They returned just 5 starters but has still done a reasonable job. Tulsa since the 2019 season has thrived in the role of an under dog as the Golden Hurricane are 13-2 ATS in 15 games. The two games they failed to cover were by a combined 3 points! They have faced Cincinnati as a dog 3 times over the period and has covered all 3 by a combined 30 points. Make the play on Tulsa.

Mack Brown has really cranked up the offense since he arrived at North Carolina. The Tar Heels are putting up over 500 yards per game. The problem has been the defense is allowing over 500 yards as well. The Hokies offense is brutally bad, but it will look a lot better this week vs North Carolina who can't stop anyone including Florida A&M who scored 24. Virginia Tech may not only have a lot more offense here, but they have a complete defense capable of keeping North Carolina from running away. North Carolina has 2 wins vs FBS opponents by a total of 9 points, and they gave up 89 points in the two games. I don't see them pulling away from Virginia Tech here, and the Hokies apply to a 155-92 ATS situation as well. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

Illinois is just 3 points from being 4-0 and they will head to Wisconsin for a big test. Illinois has really stepped things up on defense allowing just 8ppg. Illinois is allowing just 3.9 yards per play so far. Wisconsin has good looking offensive numbers, but that was due to games vs FCS Illinois St., and New Mexico St. The Badgers numbers vs Ohio St., and Washington St. don't look nearly as impressive. This also isn't the killer defense that we have seen from Wisconsin in recent years, and I think getting a full touchdown with Illinois is showing some significant value. Make the play on Illinois.

The Detroit Lions have been bad for a long time. They seemed to be short on both sides of the ball, but through 2 games and a 1-1 record the Lions offense has looked as good as anyone, while the defense has been average. Minnesota has been below average offensively and defensively. The Vikings just surrendered nearly 500 yards to Philadelphia and ran the ball just 11 times. Detroit has a decent pass rush, and I think they will be disruptive here. Goff has outplayed Cousins through 2 games, and that may continue here. Detroit broke an 8 game losing streak to Minnesota last year, and I think this is too many points in a division game that looks a lot closer to me. Make the play on Detroit.

This is a season saving game for one of these teams. If a team starts 0-3 the chances of making the playoffs is really low. Both these teams made the playoffs last year, so this is a huge game for both teams. Ryan Tannehill has seen his passing numbers plunge without AJ Brown. That goes back before he was signed by the Eagles. He averaged fewer than 5 and a half yards per pass without Brown, and so far this season he has been under 5. He also lost LT Taylor Lewan. The Tennessee running game has been stopped. Without the offensive line performing at a modest level, Henry can find no running room. The Tennessee defense has been very poor. The Titans are a negative -2 yards per play in terms of what the defense allows and the offense produces. Las Vegas is a net positive in that regard, and I think Davante Adams is in for a big day here. Vegas opened up as a dog, but are rightfully posted as the favorite as they are significantly better on both sides of the ball.

Nobody wants a part of the Colts right now. They tied Houston and were shutout by Jacksonville, and now they have to deal with Pat Mahomes. The over-reaction of NFL bettors regarding a team that was shutout last week is substantial and line influencing. Since the 2014 season a team off a shutout is 29-13-2 ATS. That goes to 10-1-1 ATS if the line is fewer than 9 points. Looks ugly, but the NFL better bets usually do look ugly. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Oregon Ducks opened the season ranked as the #11 team in the country. They had a severe test vs Georgia and failed miserably. They managed just 3 points against a strong Georgia defense and now they face another strong defense in Washington St. Washington St. is allowing 12.7ppg and held a really good Wisconsin team to 14 points. This game also fits a situation that is 117-58 ATS. Make the play on Washington St

I don't thinks anyone saw this coming. Duke heads to Kansas who is also 3-0. The winner of this game is going to be getting attention at 4-0. Kansas has beaten Houston and West Virginia on the road in consecutive weeks as a double-digit dog in both. There is some regression value here playing against Kansas. Kansas is converting nearly 70% of 3rd downs, and they are averaging a near perfect 6.3ppg in red zone possessions. Those numbers are unsustainable. Kansas also won by 31 total points vs Houston and West Virginia, but the Jayhawks were out-gained 947-860. The defense is as awful as the offense is good, and the offense right now is very good, but also a product of everything going perfect. The Duke offense is legit. They have generated 1,381 yards of offense themselves. Duke can match the Kansas offense, and the defense is better. I would not be surprised if Duke wins this game outright, so I will certainly take the points and make the play on Duke.

Matt Campbell has changed the culture at Iowa St. He has recruited very well and the team depth has changed dramatically since he took over as well as the quality of talent. He lost 4 year starting QB Brock Purdy, the best RB in school history, returned just 5 on offense and 3 on defense and he is 3-0. Baylor has a 2-1 record and the 2 wins are vs horrible teams where they were favored by an average of 36 points per game. Iowa St already has a signature win over Iowa on the road. They held the Hawkeyes to 150 total yards and 7 points. The aggressive defense has forced at least 2 turnovers in every game and averages 2.7 a contest. I like Iowa St.

Penn St. knew they were getting a good running back when they signed Nicholas Singleton. The freshman has been even better than expected running for 11.1ypc through 3 games. He ran for 12.4ypvc vs Auburn. Would not be surprised to see him break a couple of big ones vs Central Michigan. Penn St. may even be a better passing team than running team. The team is averaging over 100 yards better than the defenses they have faced allow on average. The defense is on the same level, so this is a much better Penn St. team than most think. The Central Michigan defense has given up huge yardage and points vs their 2 FBS opponents as both Oklahoma St. and S. Alabama went for over 500 yards against them. This game is a major blowout. Make the play on Penn St.

The Green Bay Packers were beaten badly by the Minnesota Vikings in game 1. It was a lot like their opener last year vs the Saints. Green Bay was missing 3 offensive linemen and their top 3 receivers from a year ago. The packers have lost 9 regular season games over the last 3 years, and they are 9-0 SU and ATS in their next game. Chicago surprised San Francisco last week but the game was played in a torrential rainstorm, and the Bears aren't good enough to hang in this one vs a Green Bay team that has dominated them over the years. Lots of situations on the Packers off a loss, and even a few others. I like Green Bay big in this one.

The Jacksonville Jaguars could have easily won last week but instead they settled for a 28-22 loss. The encouraging thing about the Jags offense is new head coach Doug Pederson is having QB Trevor Lawrence throw downfield a lot more. Lawrence finished second last week with an average depth of target of 10.6 yards. Matt Ryan had success in his debut for Indianapolis but 8 trips inside of Jacksonville territory netted them just 20 total points. I think Lawrence will have some success downfield this week vs Indianapolis, and the Jag's fit a situation that is 77-41 ATS. Make the play on Jacksonville.

This should be a good test for both teams, as both SMU and Maryland are 2-0 but neither has been tested thus far. I was on Maryland in game 1, and I have them listed as a surprise team that over-performs. This is a better team than SMU and the Terps are at home. They are also backed by a situation that is 189-127 ATS. Make the play on Maryland.

I was waiting to see who would be named the starter for Temple. It has been decided that EJ Warner will start (Kurt Warner's son). He earned it last week with a good performance. Rutgers is not nearly good enough to be favored by this many points on the road. This is going to be a low scoring game, and the points are just not reflecting the QB change. Make the play on Temple.

This game fits a huge 101-44 ATS situation. Make the play on Indiana.

The Seattle Seahawks have arguably the biggest home field advantage in the NFL. Since the start of the 2010 season they have a winning outright record as a home dog, and are 16-6-1 ATS. Since the start of the 2012 season the Seahawks have lost 1 home game by 7 points or more (9 points). Very hard to go against them with a line this big on a Monday Night at home, facing their former QB Russell Wilson. Make the play on Seattle.

This game fits a situation that is 57-15 ATS, and the play is on Dallas.

I think the LA Chargers are going to be one of the top offenses this season in the NFL, if not the best. I also think the coaching changes and the money they spent on defense is going to elevate this team significantly on that side of the ball. The Raiders play with a lot of variance and a lot of people are high on them because they have Devante Adams now. Chargers fit a 47-14 ATS week 1 situation. I still see the Chargers as clearly the better team in this one. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

Baker Mayfield gets to start against his old team the Cleveland Browns. He has talked revenge, but I don't think he has a lot of playmakers in this offense, and if anyone knows his weaknesses, and will be ready to exploit them, it is Cleveland. The Browns will start Jacoby Brissett at QB. He looked horrible in Miami but the Dolphins offensive line was brutal and he will have better protection here. He also has Amari Cooper to throw to. Cleveland has some great young CB's that were good a year ago, and should progress more this season. Cleveland is the better team, and I will make this pick on Cleveland.

This game will be avoided by most bettors. When you have lines this high no one really wants to get involved. I never look at games that way. I look at opportunities in the marketplace that show historic value and that is the case here. When a team plays to a line of -51.5 or higher they are 38-54-1 ATS. When you eliminate FCS vs FBS games that becomes 1-7 ATS the last 29 games. Yes, these games are pretty rare but the results are strongly in favor of the gigantic dog. I will make the play on Hawaii.

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on Boston College

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on East Carolina.

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on Appalachian St.