Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on UTAH. If you've followed my picks in recent seasons, you'll know that I've had considerable success backing the Utes as an underdog. Getting double-digits, I feel the Utes offer excellent value again on Saturday night.

The Beavers have certainly gotten off to an impressive start; a win Saturday night will give them their first 6-0 start in more than 100 years. They lost their starting QB and had to go with a backup (Cody Vaz) last week - and they still didn't miss a beat.

Still, keep in mind that Vaz hadn't made a start since high-school, prior to last week. Life isn't usually perfectly smooth for new QBs; an initial strong performance can often be followed by a shaky one.

Likewise, a mediocre performance in a QB's first start (like Travis Wilson's debut as the Utes starter) can be followed by an improved effort with his game under his belt.

Basically, what I'm trying to say, is not to over-react to one start from a QB.

Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said this of Travis Wilson: Right now Travis is our guy. We are pleased with his initial performance. We don't want him playing on eggshells. There is a fine line - we talk about being competitive and we need him to perform, but at the same time he has to know that we have confidence in him and what we saw in that game we have confidence in him that he will continue to perform."
The Utes have won four of five in this series, including a 27-8 win last season. The Utes didn't pass the ball well in that game but they didn't need to. Instead, they outgained the Beavers by a 225-32 margin on the ground. Keep in mind that this year's Utah team returned 16 starters from that team. They expected to be even stronger this year. While they're down their starting QB, this is still an experienced team.

The Beavers are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season but 0-1 ATS when laying points. They're five wins have come by a total of just 44 points. Going back further finds them at 2-7 ATS the past few seasons, as favorites.

Meanwhile, the Utes are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this season, improving to 50-27-1 ATS the last 78 times that they were getting points. They're 2-4 on the season (3-3 ATS) but only one of their four losses came by more than 10 points.

A well-coached team, the Utes are 3-0 ATS the past few seasons, when off two or more consecutive SU losses. The Utes know that they've got some winnable games on deck and that a win here would serve as a springboard for the rest of the season. I expect them to keep it close with an excellent shot at scoring the outright upset. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on KENTUCKY. True, the Wildcats have been brutal. True, they're up against a powerful team. I feel that this will be a good spot for them though and they're offering us plenty of line value.

The Wildcats are getting nearly four touchdowns at the betting window here. To put that line in perspective, its by far the biggest pointspread that the Wildcats have seen this year, even though they've played at road venues like Louisville, Florida and Arkansas.

The most that they've lost by at home is 21 points; they were 20 point underdogs vs. South Carolina in that game.

Now, they're getting roughly an extra touchdown against a Georgia team which just got blown out 35-7 by those same Gamecocks.

The Bulldogs followed up their loss at South Carolina by having a bye last week. The popular consensus will be that they'll be angry and that they'll look to dominate their over-matched guests.

I'll agree that Georgia wants to do that. However, thats easier said than done. Off the first loss and a bye AND with a huge showdown against Florida on deck, I feel that it will be hard to focus on "lowly" Kentucky.

Note that Georgia is 1-3 ATS the last four times it played with two week's rest and just 2-5 ATS the last seven times it was off a conference loss.

This lowly Kentucky team lost by only nine points (as a 30.5 point underdog!) last season though. In fact, five straight series meetings have been decided by 13 or fewer points, Kentucky covering three of the last four. I look for this one to also prove closer than expected, the Cats improving to 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the 21.5 to 31 range. *9

I'm playing on IDAHO. The Bulldogs have had a great season. However, they're in a difficult spot and I don't feel that they'll be able to cover such a large number.

Last week, LA Tech suffered its first loss of the season, a 59-57 heartbreaker vs. Texas A@M. Note that game was originally supposed to be played on Aug. 30, but was postponed because of Hurricane Isaac.

Its often difficult for a team to bounce back from its first defeat, particularly when that team wast starting to have dreams of an undefeated season.

It can be even harder to recover when that first loss was of the "heart-breaking" variety. Having rallied all the way back from down 27 to pull within two, I'd call last week a heartbreaker.

Louisiana Tech coach Sonny Dykes said: "I was proud of the way they fought. But we came here to win. There are no moral victories here."

Again, I feel that it will be difficult to be fully focused, after that type of loss.

Six of the last seven meetings, including each of the last three, were decided by less than two touchdowns. With the Bulldogs still thinking "what if," I look for this one to also prove closer than many will be expecting. *9

I'm playing on FLORIDA. Some are surprised by the Gators' fast start. This is a talented and experienced team though. I still don't feel that they're getting enough credit here.

Thsi is a team which checks in at 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. They've won on the road at venues like Texas A@M, Tennessee and Vanderbilt, the latter two of those road wins coming by double-digits.

Beating up on Kentucky 38-0 wasn't that big a deal. However, beating LSU by eight points was significant.

The Gators are confident and realizing that the sky is the limit for them. They're also getting healthier.

Center Jon Harrison, left tackle Xavier Nixon and guard James Wilson are all expected to return. Linebacker Jelani Jenkins will also likely return and defensive end Dominique Easley is expected to be do the same.
On the other hand, the Gamecocks are banged-up. Most importantly, Spurrier has said that Marcus Lattimore may not play and that Kenny Miles is expected to start. Even if Lattimore is available, he's likely to be at less than 100%.

Note that Miles hasn't been very effective in limited action, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry with just one touchdown. A senior, Miles hasn't averaged more than four yards per carry since his freshman season in 2009.

In addition to Lattimore, other significant players dealing with some health concerns include defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and defensive tackle Kelcy Quarles. While Clowney is currently probably, Quarles is listed as doubtful.

The Gamecocks are a talented team and they're off to an impressive start. Last week's loss figures to be a bit tough to immediately shake off though, as they were starting to entertain thoughts of an undefeated season. When a team actually believes an undefeated season is possible, losing that first one can be difficult to bounce back from.

While the Gamecocks won here in 2010, the Gators have still dominated them here in The Swamp. I expect them to resume that domination Saturday afternoon, covering the small number along the way. *9

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO STATE. Utah State is having a great season and has been one of the most profitable teams around. However, its not a team accustomed to laying anywhere close to this many points.

The largest previous pointspread that Utah State was asked to lay was 22 vs. UNLV. They won that game by exactly 22 points. They did beat the Southern Utah Thunderbirds by 31, a game that they were favored by 21 for. Southern Utah is a 1AA team though. Now, Utah State is being asked to lay an extra 10 points against a 1A team.

Keep in mind that New Mexico State hasn't lost by more than 27 points all season.

Also note that New Mexico State, which is coming off a bye, is 8-2 ATS in October the past few seasons and that New Mexico State has played Utah State tough in recent seasons.

In fact, the last three meetings have ALL been decided by five points or less, New Mexico State goig 3-0 ATS. Last year's game had a final score of 24-21. It was 27-22 the previous season and New Mexico State won outright 20-17 in 2009.

Utah State has not been a strong favorite and I look for this one to prove closer than expected once again. *9

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. Regulars will recall that I successfully backed Iowa State in this matchup last year. The Cyclones were roughly 4-TD underdogs in that game and they won outright. Last year's game set up very nicely for the Cyclones. I feel that this one sets up very nicely for the Cowboys though and I expect a vastly different result from last year.

Here's an excerpt from last year' playing on Iowa State: "...with all due respect to the Cowboys, I feel this line will prove to be too high. Off back to back wins, the Cyclones are arguably playing their best football right now. One of those victories was a 41-7 destruction of Texas Tech - so, the Cowboys weren't the only team to blow out the Red Raiders recently. The Cyclones have allowed only 17 total points their last two games and they've ran the ball for more than 600 yards in those games. They won't be able to "shut" down the Cowboys but that's at least the right formula for "slowing" them down. Off a bye, they've had plenty of extra time to prepare for this dangerous attack. The Cowboys are playing the second of b2b road games here. Off such a huge blowout and with a bye and then Oklahoma, their biggest game of the year, on deck - they could easily get caught looking past the Cyclones here. Iowa State, on the other hand, is playing its home finale. Given the situation and that the Cyclones haven't lost by more than 23 at home all year (they've hosted the likes of Iowa, A@M and Texas) and with this number having climbed from its already high opener, I feel that we're getting excellent value with the home underdog ... "

While the line is roughly half what it was last season, the Cowboys are now playing at home. Obviously, the Cyclones will have their full attention. After all, last year's loss spoiled their dreams of an undefeated season. Throw in the fact that its an important game in the Big 12 standing AND that a win will vault Mike Gundy past Pat Jones for the most wins in Oklahoma State history AND there are plenty of reasons for the Cowboys to really want this one.

Perhaps due in part to the fact that they were off a disappointing loss to Texas and perhaps partly due to the fact that they were looking ahead to this week's game, the Cowboys didn't cover last time out. They did still win though (20-4 at Kansas) which should give them their positive momentum and swagger back.

On the other hand, the Cyclones are off a tough loss against K-State in their last game. They had a chance to pull the upset in that game and that would have gone a really long way in making this season special. To come close only to eventually fall short can be tough.

Last time, remember, the Cyclones were playing their home finale and were off back to back wins. This time, not only is Iowa State off a loss but Oklahoma State is playing its homecoming game. In other words, the situation is entirely different from what it was last season.

Even with last week's ATS loss, the Cowboys are a terrific 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) in October the past few seasons. During that time, they're 19-8 ATS (24-3 SU) when laying points, including a 5-2 ATS (7-0 SU) mark as home favorites in the 10.5 to 21 range. I expect the revenge-minded Cowboys, who destroyed the Cyclones in the last meeting here, to improve on that stat in convincing fashion. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on UCONN. The Huskies are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in this series the past five seasons. While the Orange would surely love to snap that losing streak, I don't feel that they're currently playing well enough to be laying more than a field goal.

Both teams have losing records. Both are off a loss. Both have also shown a tendency to play close games.

The Huskies are off a 3-point loss vs. Temple. It marked the fifth time in their last six games that the final score was decided by a touchdown or less. Only one team (Rutgers) has beaten them by more than six points all season.

Syracuse lost by eight last time out. The 2-4 Orange have just one win by more than one point. That was a 28-17 victory against 1-AA Stony Brook.

The Orange are just 6-10 ATS the past few seasons when laying points. That includes a 2-4 ATS mark when favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. During that time, they're 2-6 ATS when off a conference loss.

Meanwhile, over the same time period, the Huskies are 4-2 ATS when off a conference loss and 3-0 ATS when off back to back SU losses. They're 5-3 ATS, during that time, when listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. I look for at least another cover here. *10

I'm playing on OREGON. I've won with many home underdogs on Thursday nights over the years, so I'm well aware that its normally tough to beat a team in front of its home fans on these Thursday ESPN games. Oregon is no "normal" team though. Indeed, the Ducks have won 10 straight conference road games. The Ducks have also outscored the Sun Devils by a 175-81 margin in winning four straight here at Tempe. Overall, the Ducks have won seven straight in the series. I look for them to continue that dominance for another year on Thursday night.

The Ducks know an undefeated record give them a great shot at playing for the National Title. They also know that this is a chance for them to remind everyone of how good they are.

Arizona State has played very well so far this season and has been one of the most profitable teams at the betting window. This is a major step up in class though.

The Ducks score more than 52 points a game and rush for more than 300 yards per game. Coming off a bye, Oregon is fresh and has had extra time to game plan.

As Marcus Mariota noted: "It is good for everyone to get back to 100 percent and get ready to play Arizona State."

The Ducks are 7-3 ATS (10-0 SU) their last 10 on the road and they were favored in nine of those. They know they have to keep their perfect record in tact for the USC game to really matter (for their national title hopes) and I look for them to take care of business in convincing fashion. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on SMU. With 13 victories, Houston was one of last year's big stories. While this year's team is still talented, its not as good as last year's. I feel the Cougars are ripe for an upset.

While they''ve now won a few in a row, the Cougars are still 3-3 on the season. None of the teams (Rice, North Texas, UAB) they've beaten are as good as the one they'll face tonight, at least in my opinion.

Note that the Cougars lost their only true road game by a score of 37-6.

Also, note that the Cougars are only 3-9-1 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range, 0-2 ATS the past couple of seasons.

Perhaps looking ahead to this game or perhaps just bothered by playing back-to-back road games, the Mustangs stumbled at Tulane last time out. Prior to that, however, they won 17-0 at Utep.

The Mustangs are only 1-2 at home. However, the two losses came against a pair of really good teams, Texas A&M and TCU. And they only lost by eight against the Frogs. I don't think the Cougars are as good as either of those teams.

Since taking over the Mustangs, Jones has yet to beat Houston, an instate rival. I feel he's had this one circled since before the season started and that this year will offer Jones his best shot. The Mustangs had an edge in total yards the last time they hosted Houston. This time, they take it a step further and earn (at least) the cover. *10

I'm playing on HAWAII. I played against the Warriors in their last home game. That worked out well for me, as they got destroyed (69-24) by Nevada. The Warriors followed that up with back to back blowout road losses, failing to cover in each of those games. I also successfully played against the Warriors in the recently blowout loss (47-0) at BYU. So, I'm acutely aware of Hawaii's recent struggles.

I feel that those results, combined with the fact that the Lobos have covered a few in a row, have helped to give us excellent value here.

Yes, the Warriors are 1-4. Thats really no surprise though. Three of the losses were on the road. Hawaii was an underdog of 44, 26 and 19.5 points. So, not only were the Warriors expected to lose, they were expected to lose big.

As noted, I played against the Warriors in their home loss against Nevada. So, that didn't come as a surprise either. That leaves only one other game. That was against Lamar and the Warriors were -36 point favorites. So, they were expected to win that one easily. They did what was expected, winning by a score of 54-2.

Now, for the first time all season, the Warriors have a game against an opponent of similar talent. In fact, I feel Hawaii may have the superior talent.

Lets not forget that New Mexico was 1-11 last season. This season's team has already tripled that win total but those wins came at home against Southern and Texas State and "in state" against rival New Mexico State.

Off a "big win," feeling good about themselves, and now traveling outside their state for the first time, I feel the Lobos may be susceptible to an "island letdown." Note that they haven't won back to back games since 2008 and that they haven't won a game outside the state of New Mexico since October of 2007.

After this game, its likely going to be a long time (UNLV on 11/24) until the Warriors have a chance to win a game in front of the home fans. That's because three of their next four games come on the road - and the lone home game during that time comes against Boise State. Armed with this knowledge, I expect the Warriors to be treating this a "very big" game. Let's not forget that head coach Norm Chow is still looking for his first win over a 1A team. So, there should be no lack of motivation.

While they haven't been in that role in some time, the Lobos are a poor 11-17 ATS the last 28 times that they were listed as road favorites. Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Warriors were 21-10-1 ATS (22-10 SU) when the line ranged from +3 to -3, including 6-3 ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points.

Even with the loss to Nevada, the Warriors are 10-6 ATS (11-5 SU) here the past few seasons. They can win this game and I think they will. *10 Underdog GOY

I'm playing on LSU. The Gamecocks come in with a big winning streak and a higher ranking. Off an impressive win over Georgia, they deserve it. I still feel that the Tigers are favored for good reason though. Playing at home, I expect them to come away with the victory, covering the small number along the way.

The Tigers are off a rare loss, their first in the "regular season" since way back in November of 2010. The big question is, how will the Tigers react to the defeat.

Les Miles noted: "It is an interesting thing, too, because for the first time in a year and a half we are talking about a regular-season loss, and it is miserable for us. Our football team is not enjoying it and certainly our coaching staff isn't, either."

I believe the Tigers will respond with flying colors. While a first loss kills the dreams of many teams, the situation is different here. The Tigers know that a victory here will put them right back in the hunt for the National title.

Safety Eric Reid noted: "It's a perfect situation. We had a tough loss, but at the same time, we can have a big win this Saturday."

Looking back to the Tigers' last regular season loss and we find that it actually came in the last game of the regular season, a 31-23 setback at Arkansas. They responded to that loss by trouncing Texas A@M in their bowl game.

That situation was a little different though, due to the long layoff between games. Plus, that loss to Arkansas wasn't the Tigers first loss of that season. They'd already lost a little over a month earlier, at Auburn.

I feel that loss at Auburn was a little more comparable to the current situation, as the Tigers had previously been undefeated. So, how did they respond? With an outright "upset" of Alabama the very next game. Remember, this is a very well-coached team.

The Gamecocks are definitely not slouches. They're also both well-coached and talented. Still, lets not forget that the Tigers are 10-1 as a host in this series. Also, while they've thrived in that situation so far this season, keep in mind that the Gamecocks are still only 5-9 ATS the last 14 times that they were off a conference win.

Interestingly, the Tigers were also coming off a loss the last time that these teams faced each other, back in 2008. In fact, LSU was off the worst loss of Les Miles' era, losing 51-21 against Florida. Miles got his guys to bounce back with a 24-17 win at South Carolina that day. I expect him to have them ready once again. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on BYU. The Beavers come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Cougars are favored for good reason. And not just because of Oregon State's QB issues. Of course, that's not likely to make things any easier for the Beavers. While the Beavers are 4-0, they haven't started 5-0 since my grandparents were young.

Oregon State QB Cody Vaz has appeared in only five games in his entire career and he's completed just six of 17 passes for 48 yards. Should Vaz go down, his backup is redshirt freshman quarterback Richie Harrington, a walk-on.



Oregon State coach Mike Riley acknowledged this of Vaz: "The only unfortunate part is that I haven't played him enough."



The Cougars didn't cover last week - but they did manage a win against a tough and pesky Utah State team. With that game coming on a Friday, BYU gets an extra day of preparation. Prior to that game, the Cougars dominated Hawaii by a score of 47-0. They're 4-0 here on the season, outgaining teams by a 469.5 to 217.5 margin.



While they failed to win at Utah in Week 3, (I went against them there) note that the Cougars are a profitable 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were off consecutive SU victories.



The Cougars won by 10 at Oregon State last season. They outrushed the Beavers by a commanding 282-59 margin. They returned 14 starters from that team, too.



BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall is an OSU alumni and this is the homecoming game for the Cougars. Opportunities to beat ranked opponents don't come around all the time. I expect the well coached Cougars to take care of business in convincing fashion. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. After scoring 70 points against Baylor two weeks ago and then following it up with a road win at Texas, the Mountaineers are receiving plenty of attention from the media. Rightfully so, they've been pretty impressive. I feel that this will be a tough spot for them though. I also feel that all that media attention has them over-valued. Meanwhile, I feel that Texas Tech comes in under-valued, flying under the radar.

The schedules have arguably been fairly similar. The Mountaineers faced easy teams in Marshall, James Madison and Maryland to start the season. Likewise, the Red Raiders faced easy opponents in Northwestern State, Texas State and New Mexico in their first three games. Each team faced a lesser ranked Big 12 opponent in its fourth game. The Mountaineers hosted Baylor, the Red Raiders played at Iowa State. In the fifth game, last time out, WVU played Texas while Texas Tech took on Oklahoma. So, given that I feel the schedules are fairly close, I feel its fair to compare the stats.

Yes, WVU has the edge on offense. The Mountaineers are averaging a whopping 52 points on 570.8 yards of offense. However, the Red Raiders aren't as far behind as one might expect. They're averaging 39 points on 509.6 yards. At home, Texas Tech is averaging 520.7 yards, which is actually more than WVU averages on the road.

Its on the other side of the ball where Texas Tech has the advantage. The Red Raiders are allowing only 16.8 points and just 210 yards of offense. Meanwhile, WVU is allowing 35 points on 460 yards.

So, if we look at that a different way, we find that Texas Tech is outscoring opponents by 22.2 points per game while WVU is outscoring its opponents by "only" 17 per game.

Meanwhile, the Red Raiders are gaining 299.4 more yards of offense per game than their opponents while the Mountaineers are gaining only 110.8 more than their foes.

The Mountaineers have seen three straight games decided by 10 or fewer points. Their games have been getting progressively closer. They'll be playing back to back road games for the only time this season. Off the upset at Texas and with a big showdown vs. Kansas State on deck, this is a tough spot.

While the Red Raiders are off a disappointing loss, that loss came against Oklahoma - and it was their first loss of the season. Prior to that, they were 4-0 with all four victories coming by double-digits.

Last week's loss notwithstanding, I still believe that this is a very good Texas Tech team. Keep in mind that the Red Raiders brought back 17 starters from a team which was ranked as high as #19 at one point early last year.

I don't believe that the Raiders are going to hang their heads. This is their homecoming game and it offers them a chance to beat a ranked opponent. Note that Texas Tech is 39-23 ATS its last 60+ off a conference loss.

During that stretch, even with the loss against Oklahoma, the Red Raiders were 7-3 ATS as a home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. (All seven ATS wins were also SU wins.) I expect the Raiders to rise to the occasion and earn AT LEAST another cover on Saturday afternoon. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I played against the Gophers when they were beaten at Iowa, their very last game. At the time, I suggested that the undefeated Gophers were over-valued. Perception can change quickly though.

Off a single road loss, suddenly the Gophers are being considered a bad team again. In fact, they're getting nearly as many points for this home game as they were at Iowa.

Like the Gophers, the Wildcats are also coming off their first loss of the season. I feel that their loss will be more difficult to "bounce back" emotionally and physically from.

First of all, Northwestern's loss came last Saturday while Minnesota's loss came the previous week. So, the Gophers have had an extra week to physically/emotionally recover, while also having extra preparation time go gameplan for the Wildcats.

Not only have they had more "recovery time," but the Gophers loss was of the "blowout variety." Those type of losses can often be easier to bounce back from than a closer loss. The Wildcats were really starting to think they were good and were beginning to entertain thoughts of keeping their undefeated record going for a few more weeks - losing a relatively close game at Penn State figures to be painful.

Note that the Wildcats, now 2-8 ATS the last 10 October games, are just 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were off a conference loss. During that stretch, they've gone 2-4 ATS as road favorites.

Of course, playing back to back road games is tough in itself.

Even with the loss at Iowa, the Gophers are still 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. The Gophers covered (lost 29-28 as 4.5 point underdogs) when these teams played here in 2010. I expect at least another cover. *9

I'm playing on NAVY. I won with the Midshipmen against Air Force last week. Navy prevailed in a hard fought game, winning in OT. While Central Michigan isn't a complete "cupcake," this is indeed a very winnable game for the Midshipmen. The question is how they'll respond to the win over their rival. Back on track, I believe the answer will be that the Midshipmen will build some positive momentum from that game.
The last time that Navy beat Air Force was in 2009. That was also a hard fought OT win. The next week, the Midshipmen followed it up with a 49-point win on the road. They haven't won by that many points since.
True, the Midshipmen are playing the second of back-to-back road games. This is a well-conditoned and well-coached team though, one which was quite competitive in that situation last season. The Midshipmen were 0-2 when playing the second of b2b road games last season. However, both losses came by just three points, including one at South Carolina against a Gamecocks team that was ranked #11 at the time. (Navy was a +16 point underdog.)
The Chippewas come in off back-to-back double-digit losses, failing to cover in both games. They're giving up an average of 495 yards and 45.3 points their past three games. For the season they're allowing an average of 457.6 ypg, including a whopping 223 ypg (5.8 ypr) on the ground. That should spell trouble against a rejuvenated Navy rushing attack.
The Chippewas are a dismal 1-10 ATS (2-9 SU) in October the past few seasons. During that stretch, they're 2-9 ATS off a conference loss, going 3-9 ATS (5-7 SU) in their home games. Off three straight road games, they're in a bit of a tough scheduling spot themselves.

The Midshipmen have long been excellent as underdogs. They're particularly tough as slight road underdogs, going 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. I expect them to improve on those stats Friday night. *10

I'm playing on COLORADO. If I'm backing an underdog, I like to feel that the underdog has a chance at the outright win. That's not really necessary when getting more than three touchdowns though. That said, I feel the Buffaloes are coming into this game, looking for a win.

The Sun Devils are 4-1 on the season but only 1-1 on the road. That road win came by only 10 points, too.

While the Buffaloes have admittedly fared pretty poorly in the W/L column, they've also seen three of five games decided by five points or less.

Obviously, winning this game will not be easy; the Buffaloes are large underdogs for a reason. However, with road games at USC and Oregon on deck, this does represent the Buffaloes best shot at an October win. Throw in the fact that it comes on national TV and I look for them to be "fired up" and to deliver their best performance.

Historians will be interested to learn that Colorado is 2-0 on Thursday night games at Folsom Field, having beaten Stanford in 1990 and West Virginia in 2008.



Arizona State will be bringing pressure. The extra time off may help the Buffaloes a little there though. QB Jordan Webb noted: "I think the offensive line is really prepared. We've got some schemes that will help us. I think I have full faith in our offensive line. ... "



This was actually the first bye that the Buffaloes have had under coach Embree, now in his second season.



He said this of the time off: ''It's been good for us, we're excited to get some guys back healthy, allow us to address a few issues, tackling and turnovers. We did a lot live tackling. To the players it may not have felt like a bye, because we had a lot of live periods within practice and it was good to do that.''



Although teams usually get fired up for Thursday night games, the Sun Devils, 4-6 ATS their last 10 Thursday games, have a much bigger Thursday game (home game vs. Oregon) coming up next week. I feel they could get caught looking ahead.



For all their impressive stats, lets not forget that this Arizona State team was the least experienced team in the Pac 12 to start the season, returning only eight starter.



The Buffaloes were beaten soundly at Arizona State in Embree's first season as coach. Now, in his second year, he gets a chance to show he's got his program on the right track - and to help with future recruiting - by delivering a much more competitive game. I expect the Buffaloes to do just that. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on TEXAS. Many bettors are likely going to favor the underdog here. They will see the Mountaineers are coming off a game in which they scored 70 points. They'll see that the Mountaineers have a Heisman Trophy frontrunner at QB. And, they'll see that its the Mountaineers which actually have the higher national ranking. I feel that the Longhorns are favored for good reason though.





While the 70 points are standing out in people's memories, I feel that the Longhorns have done much more thus far. Both teams are 4-0. However, the Longhorns have a 35 point road win over an SEC team (albeit a weak one) AND a road win at Oklahoma State.



That win against the Cowboys was huge. It gives the Longhorns a real shot at playing for the National Title. There are only a few really big tests remaining and this is one of them. Of course, the big one is vs. Oklahoma the following week.



I feel the the Longhorns learned a lesson in 2010. They had a 3-0 record that season and were hosting UCLA in their fourth game, prior to facing Oklahoma in their fifth game. Favored by more than two touchdowns, they got caught looking ahead to the Sooners and got smoked. The Longhorns never recovered that season, finishing 5-7.



Last year's team also started off 3-0, with one game to play before meeting Oklahoma. This time, having learned its lesson the previous year, Texas took care of business, delivering a 37-14 victory as a -9.5 point favorite. Although they still lost vs. the Sooners, the Longhorns at least went into that game with an undefeated record. With the lesson of 2010 still fresh in their memories, I expect Brown's team to avoid any letdown and/or look-ahead here.



The Mountaineers have yet to play a true road game and have been favored by double-digits in every game. Sure, they scored 70 against Baylor. Don't forget, they also allowed 63.



Geno Smith will get all the headlines here. However, Texas also has a very good QB in David Ash. Indeed, Ash has completed 78% of his passes for 1,007 yards (251.8 ypg) and has 10 TDs against only one interception.





This has traditionally been a good role for the Longhorns; they're 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. (During that stretch, the Mountaineers were only 4-7 ATS as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range.)



The Mountaineers had a successful Big 12 debut. Facing a far more formidable opponent and a much better defense, expect them to find the going considerably more difficult here. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on TCU. Ranked #15 in the country, the Horned Frogs are finally getting a little respect. However, as the only school in the entire country currently with a double-digit win streak, they don't believe they're getting enough. Beating up on a mediocre Iowa State team, one which has a deceivingly decent 3-1 record, will look good on their resum

I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. These teams will be meeting for the fifth time in the last four years. The Yellow Jackets won 31-17 last season and have a 50-25-2 lead in the all-time series. They're getting double-digits here and I feel that's providing us with excellent line value.



Admittedly, the Tigers are dynamic offensively. Facing a defensively-challenged Georgia Tech team, they should score points.



I believe the Yellow Jackets will also have plenty of offensive success though. The Tigers are giving up 438 yards per game (543.5 in conference play!) while the Yellow Jackets are averaging a whopping 329 yards of offense per game on the ground.



While the Yellow Jackets may have been looking ahead to this game last week, the Tigers are off back to back hard-fought road games. They survived some adversity at Boston College last week, playing without star receiver Sammy Watkins. Watkins, who is indeed a very talented player, has been cleared to play this week. However, as can sometimes be the case when a star returns, I won't be surprised if the rest of the unit lets down, if only slightly.



Off an embarrassing loss, I don't expect that to be an issue for the well-coached Yellow Jackets. As Paul Johnson noted about the game vs. Clemson, after last week's loss: "...we have to come out and play a lot harder than we did today, or it could be ugly." I believe he'll have had the ear of his players this week and I look for a much improved effort.



Clemson coach Swinney knows he can expect Georgia Tech's best. He was quoted "This is a team that I know they're coming off a tough loss to Middle Tennessee, but they've had two overtime losses at Virginia Tech and then against Miami. I think everybody knows the kind of team that Georgia Tech is and the kind of coaching staff that they have. We're going to have to play a great game."



While the revenge-minded Tigers would love a big win, keep in mind that Clemson has seen all three of its games against quality opposition decided by 14 points or less. The Tigers did beat Boston College by 14 - however, they were losing that game at halftime. So, it was close. They lost by eight at Florida State and they beat Auburn by seven.



While last week's game got out of hand, G-Tech has also been involved in close games. They've had two blowout wins and two losses by six or less. In their lone road game, they lost by three at Virginia Tech.



With both teams hungry for a win, I feel this one could very well also come down to the wire and I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on NAVY. I won with Air Force when these teams met last season. Navy was a 3-point favorite but the Falcons pulled off a 35-34 upset. Despite that setback, the Midshipmen are still a profitable 8-2 ATS the last 10 in the series. In a game that could easily again come down to the wire, I feel that they're providing us with very fair value.



While it hasn't been the case so far this season, Navy has long been a strong underdog, going 62-30-2 ATS its last 94 when getting points.



On the other hand, the Falcons are just 6-14 ATS the last 20 times that they were laying points. Note that they're only 4-10 ATS their last 14 home lined games.



Admittedly, Navy has gotten off to a disappointing start. However, this was supposed to be an improved Navy team from last season. And remember, the Midshipmen were favored against AF last year.



Keep in mind that two of Navy's losses came against Notre Dame (at Ireland) and at Penn State. So, there was no real shame in losing those games. Losing at home against SJ State wasn't too good. However, the Spartans nearly did the same thing to Stanford and the Midshipmen were underdogs in that game. So, that loss was somewhat excusable too. They won their only other game by a score of 41-3.



Air Force has the better 2-2 record. Its loss vs. Michigan was certainly excusable. However, losing at UNLV wasn't too good - the Rebels are a bad team and AF was lying -10.5 points in that game. The only two wins came against Idaho State and Colorado State, a pair of bad teams. So, really, this team has done nothing. At least, not yet.



Last year wasn't the first close game between these teams. In fact, each of the last four games was decided by eight points or less. Eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by eight or fewer points and all nine of those were decided by 11 or less. Also, the last four meetings in Colorado Springs were ALL decided by a TD or less.



While the Air Force offense has been quite potent, the defense is giving up more than 435 yards per game. I expect that to be just what the doctor ordered for Navy. In another game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *9

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Orange opened as underdogs and are now small favorites. I feel the initial line was more accurate though and disagree with the line move.

After an awful 0-2 start, the Panthers have recovered. (Remember, they were adjusting to a new coach.) This is a team which brought back 14 starters and was expected to be good. They lost badly the last time they were on National TV and will be looking to show the country that they're better than that.

There's nothing particularly impressive about the Panthers' 55-0 beatdown of Gardner Webb, as that was to be expected. Still, that type of blowout victory can build a team's confidence. The 35-17 destruction of Virginia Tech WAS impressive, far more so than anything that the 1-3 Orange have accomplished.

Syracuse has one win and it came against 1-AA Stony Brook. (The Orange won by 11 as a 21.5 pt fav) There's nothing to be ashamed of about their double-digit loss vs. USC. However, losses against Northwestern and Minnesota are telling.

On the season, the Orange have turned the ball over 10 times and are averaging nine penalties per game.

While the pointspread won't likely be a factor here, note that the Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times that they played a game with a line in the -3 to +3 range. During that stretch, the Orange were just 3-8 SU/ATS when doing so.

The Panthers have dominated this series in recent years. Meeting for the last time as Big East rivals, I expect them to continue that dominance Friday night. *9

I'm playing on UTAH. I won with the Utes against BYU as home underdogs but successfully played against them at Utah State, as road favorites. The Utes are home underdogs again here, one of their best roles, and I again feel that they're providing us with excellent value.

As always, USC has excellent athletes. Really, this team is loaded - on both sides of the ball. Still, being asked to lay two TDs on the road - at a venue like this - is asking a lot.

The Trojans have only played one true road game (Stanford) and they lost that one outright. The Utes are undefeated at home.

The Utes are 48-27 ATS the last 75 times that they were getting points, 6-3 ATS when listed as underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range.

The Utes lost by only nine points at USC last season. They were only +7.5 point underdogs in that one. Now, they're playing at home AND getting an extra touchdown to boot.

Granted, the Trojans are arguably a better team than they were last season. However, the same can arguably be said of the Utes. Keep in mind that Jordan Wynn was just one of 16 returning starters.

Last year's 9-point USC win was a little deceiving. The score was just 17-14 and Utah was lining up for a 41-yrd field goal to send the game to OT. However, the Trojans blocked the kick and took it 68 yards the other way. (The Pac-12 didn't even announce that the TD counted until long after the Coliseum had emptied; fans thought it didn't count.)

After that game, Utah's first in the conference, coach Kyle Whittingham said. ""It was baptism by fire. We stayed toe-to-toe, but we have to find a way to win close games. ... If you have a group of competitive guys, you want to play the best in the country. Personnel-wise, USC stacks up with anyone in the country."

True, the Utes didn't look too good in their last game getting blown out by Arizona State. That was on the road though - they've 4-2 SU the last six times that they were off a conference loss.

While both teams are off a bye, I feel that the extra time may have helped Utah more. Its given players like star running back John White, junior defensive end Joe Kruger (2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles) and sophomore safety Eric Rowe more time to heal. Also, off a loss, I feel that the Utes may be more receptive in practice than the Trojans, who could potentially be a little full of themselves.

Utah is 6-1 after byes during Kyle Whittingham

I'm playing on FIU. The Golden Panthers have been good to me so far this season. I won with "over" in their first game, a loss at Duke. Note that the Golden Panthers racked up more than 500 yards in offense in that one, enjoying a significant edge in that department. I also backed them as underdogs in games at UCF and vs. Louisville. They lost those games but earned the cover in each. I feel that this will be a great spot for them to break through with an outright win.



Arkansas State was the best team in this conference last season. However, I don't believe that's the case this season. The Red Wolves are already 0-1 in conference play, losing at home to Western Kentucky. Sure, they've got two wins. However, those wins both came at home and they came against Alcorn State and Memphis. They were favored by 23.5 and 39.5 points in those games. So, wins were expected. (They did blow out 1-AA Alcorn State but won by only five against Memphis.)



While the Red Wolves suffered major personnel losses from last season, the Golden Panthers brought back many returning starters. They were picked by many before the season began to win this conference and they've had this game circled since the schedule came out. They'll be looking for some payback from a loss at Arkansas State last season, a game which was tied at halftime. Now, an FIU team which is arguably stronger than it was last season gets to play at home against an Arkansas St team which is arguably weaker than it was last season.



While a healthy Medlock may have been preferred at QB, I feel that E.J. Hilliard (25-of-36, 286 yards) will prove capable.



The Golden Panthers are only 1-4 this season but they're 1-1 at home. They're lone home loss came against a good Louisville team though. And, as I mentioned, they had a big yardage edge on Duke in the loss there. I expect them to be sky high for this one, dropping the Red Wolves to 9-20 the last 29 times that they played a game with a line in the -3 to +3 range. *10

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. I feel that this line is too high. Both teams are 3-1. Yet, because the Huskers have won in more impressive fashion, they're getting a lot more respect than the Badgers here.

True, the victories have been impressive. However, keep in mind that Nebraska was favored by more than 20 points in all three of those games. The Huskers were supposed to win those in blowout fashion. The only time that they faced a quality opponent (UCLA) they lost by six.

The Badgers also lost a close road game against a Pac-12 school. But because their three wins have been close, they're getting run through the mud. That close game experience can be beneficial though - and it should be noted that the win against Utah State came against arguably a more talented opponent than the Huskers have beaten yet this season.

The Badgers, who hammered the Huskers last season, have won five straight conference games, going 14-3 their last 17 conference games. I believe they're better than people realize and feel that their talented defense will serve them well, when trying to cover a large number. (The Badgers are 13-6-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were underdogs of greater than eight points.)

Coach Bielema noted: "It's a tremendous challenge to go on the road and win the way you want to in this league so that's an opportunity that we have in front of us. We get better every week, the team has the right attitude, like I said I don't have any worries about the way guys handle their work during the course of the week and we will see where we are Saturday."

The Badgers are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were getting points. All four of their games have been decided by 11 or fewer points and three were decided by five or less. In another game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. The Seminoles are a talented team. However, I don't feel that they should be laying more than two touchdowns here.
The Bulls check in with a disappointing 2-2 record and off back to back losses. Note that both losses came by 10 points or less.
Off an impressive win at Nevada, the Bulls moved to 2-0 after two games. However, they had to play their next game on a short week and were upset by Rutgers. For a team that had dreams of being 4-0 heading into this week's showdown vs. Florida State, the loss at Rutgers was disappointing. Still thinking about the Rutgers loss and possibly looking ahead to the Seminoles, the Bulls suffered a letdown were upset at Ball State last week. This is still a solid team and I expect them to be much better here.
Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher knows the Bulls are no joke. He said the following: ''I don't look at this as a lesser game. I think South Florida is an extremely talented football team. ... They have guys on their team from when they defeated us,'' adding that the Bulls won't be in awe of the favored Seminoles because many players from the teams have known each other since they were high school prospects. ''In their mind, that gives them more motivation and more energy to try to knock you off I don't think there's any doubt...''
When Fisher refers to "the team that beat them," he's referring to the 2009 Bulls which upset the Seminoles. A 14-point underdog, the Bulls won by 10.
South Florida QB BJ Daniels, a Tallahassee native, was a red-shirt freshman at the time. Now a senior, Daniels is a dual threat, that can beat you with both is arm and his legs. He's already thrown for 1,142 yards and nine touchdowns while running for 199 yards.
The Bulls have beaten the likes of Notre Dame and Miami under Holtz and will go into this game thinking upset.
Coach Holtz had this to say of this week's game: "...we've played in some big football games in the past. I don't think the players will be intimidated. They're excited about the opportunity. They understand the last couple of weeks we have not played stellar football, and this is an opportunity to go out and perform against a Top 5 team.''

While this game is huge for the Bulls, its not such a big deal for the Seminoles. They're off a big conference win last time out and have another one on deck.

The Bulls are 7-3 ATS their last 10 against teams from the ACC. They're also 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were underdogs of greater than eight points. I expect them to be ready and for them to provide their "rivals" a much tougher game than most will be expecting. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I believe that getting the Bears at home in the pick'em range offers excellent value.

A big reason for the low line is California's 1-3 record. However, the fact it that the Bears were only "supposed" to be 2-2. So, 1-3 isn't that far off.

The game that the Bears lost, which they were expected to win, was the opener vs. Nevada. In case you haven't noticed, the Wolfpack are a pretty good team though. (They just scored 69 points and are averaging better than 44.) So, while the Bears should have beaten them - it was never going to be a cakewalk. Plus, playing a team's first game can be difficult.

The other two losses both came on the road and they were against Ohio State and USC. So, there's no shame in either of those losses. In fact, they almost beat the Buckeyes. Then, after leaving it all out on the field in that game, they were beaten more soundly at USC.

They're back home now though and I expect the Bears to wake up from their "hibernation." Facing Arizona State should help.

While the Sun Devils have played rather well at home, they lost their only road game. They're 3-9 on the road the past few seasons. This is still an inexperienced team (fewest returning starters in the Pac-12) with a new coach. I don't expect road victories to come easily.

Admittedly, the Sun Devils defense has played well. Give them credit for that. However, lets not get carried away.

Keep in mind the following, the three 1A teams that the Sun Devils have faced were Illinois, Missouri and Utah. Those teams entered the season expecting to have Nathan Scheelhaase, James Franklin and Jordan Wynn. In the case of the first two (Franklin and Scheelhaase) both those QBs played the previous week, meaning that both Missouri and Illinois faced ASU with QBs making their first ever start, with offenses that had worked with the presumed starter all fall.

In other words, those impressive Arizona State defensive numbers have gone up against offenses which weren't at their best. Their secondary has yet to be tested - and it will be on Saturday

The Bears are 8-1 in nine meetings with the Sun Devils since Tedford became coach, including 4-0 the last four. They won those games by an average of 14 points, including an 11-point win at Arizona St. last season.

Having lost that game vs. Nevada, the Bears know this is essentially as must-win game, if they want to go to to a bowl. They've still got UCLA, Stanford and Oregon to go - plus games against Washington State, Utah and Oregon State all come on the road. Again, they can ill-afford another loss. Desperate for a win, I expect the Bears to rise to the occasion and continue their dominance in the series. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on IOWA. A lot of bettors are probably going to be tempted to grab the points here. They'll look at this matchup, see Minnesota's 4-0 record against Iowa's 2-2 mark and they'll assume that the Gophers are the better team. That perception and those records have kept the line on Iowa reasonably low. Given that I expect the Hawkeyes to bounce back with a double-digit win, I feel that's providing us with excellent value.



Give the Gophers credit for the 4-0 start. Wins are wins, no matter who they come against. However, a closer look reveals that three of those wins came at home, none of them against elite teams, and that the only road win came at UNLV, in Week 1. The Rebels were considered so weak that the Gophers were favored by -9.5 points in that one. Yet, they won by only three, doing so in triple-OT. The three home wins came against New Hampshire, Western Michigan and Syracuse. Again, not exactly teams that we'll be expecting to see on New Year's Day. So, let's not get too carried away by the 4-0 start. (There's a reason why they didn't receive a single vote in this week's AP poll.)



While the Hawkeyes are certainly disappointed with their 2-2 start, Kirk Farentz's team is typically at its best off a loss. Indeed, the Hawkeyes are an outstanding 35-15 ATS their last 50 times line games off a SU loss. Even with a few non-covers so far this season, they're still 18-8 ATS the last 25 times that they failed to cover their previous game.



The Gophers won the last two games in this series. Both those were at Minnesota though. The Hawkeyes have dominated the meetings at Iowa, winning five straight and eight of nine. They were 7-2 ATS in those games, too.



A look at the recent pointspreads in this series shows that the Hawkeyes were favored by at least 13 points in each of the last three meetings, as well as each of the last two here at Iowa.



I'm not getting too carried away wth the non-conference records. This is the beginning of conference play and I expect Ferentz's Hawkeyes to bounce back, as they usually do off a loss, with a solid win an cover. *9

I'm playing on BYU. The Cougars have treated me well so far this season. I successfully played on them when they blew out Washington State in their opener. I also successfully played against them when they lost outright at Utah. Last week, they covered for me at Boise, losing by a single point. While that was a difficult loss, Friday's matchup should provide an excellent opportunity to right the ship with a blowout win.



I successfully played against Hawaii last week. I felt Nevada, which hadn't won on the Island since the 1940s, was going to be really motivated. I also felt that the Warriors were going to be over-matched. That certainly proved to be the case. Playing in front of their own home fans, Hawaii was beaten by 45 points.



It appears that Taysom Hill will be getting the start at QB. (Note that it was Hill who drove for the TD against Boise.) That's fine with me. But I'd have been fine with Nelson, too. Either way, I expect the offense to have success against a Hawaii defense which gave up 69 points and nearly 600 yards of offense.



I quite like the fact that the Cougars played on 9/20 while the Warriors played a very late game on 9/22, at Hawaii.



While the spread may seem high, note that BYU is 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times it was favored in the -21.5 to --31 range.



The Cougars have dominated the Warriors in recent years including a 21-point win at Hawaii last season. I believe the talent gap, or at least the "playing ability," between the teams is currently even wider. Catching the Warriors on a short week and now facing them at home, I expect the Cougars to deliver an even bigger blowout. *10

I'm playing on NEVADA. I watched the Wolfpack play here last Christmas Eve at the Hawaii Bowl. The Wolfpack didn't win SU but did cover the spread for me. That was against a fairly tough Southern Miss. squad though. This game comes against a less talented Hawaii squad. This time, I expect the Wolfpack to earn BOTH the win and the cover.



Having been here less than a year ago, the Wolfpack should be less susceptible to the "island's distractions." Having lost the bowl game here and having been upset by the Warriors here in 2010, I expect a very determined effort to come away with a victory this time.



That 2010 Hawaii team had won three in a row when it faced Nevada and was a confident group. The Wolfpack were off to their best start since becoming an FBS program some 18 years before that - and were upset 27-21. While they did beat the Warriors by 14 (at Nevada) last year, coach Ault won't let his players forget the 2010 loss.



An outright win its in only road game, against a fairly good (California) opponent, shows that the Wolfpack know how to win away from home. It was no fluke either. They ran for 220 yards while passing for 230 mark (25 0f 32!) while holding the Bears to 110 yards rushing and an 18 for 38 mark through the air.



Hawaii hasn't given us much to work with yet. The Warriors were blown out by USC, as expected. Then, they blew out Lamar, also as expected. Keep in mind that an inexperienced offense is still learning new schemes while the defense returned only two starters from last season.



I feel that the Wolfpack are the more complete team, on both sides of the ball. While the line has dropped to single-digits, I expect a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. I've already won with the Spartans twice this season. I had them when they nearly upset Stanford and again last week, when they blew out Colorado State. I expect this to be their toughest match yet though and feel that the value now lies in going against them.

Adjusting to the loss of their QB and facing a fairly tough opponent on the road, the Aztecs lost their first game, 21-12 at Washington. They did cover the spread in that one though. The offense has come to life the last two games, scoring 42 and 49 points. That should give them plenty of confidence here.

Yes, the Spartans did nearly score an improbable upset at Stanford. That seems even more impressive now that the Cardinal have beaten USC. However, the fact is that SJ State was catching the Cardinal playing the first game of the season and playing their first game without Luck. The Cardinal were still "going through the motions" a bit while SJ State came ready to play. I don't expect the Aztecs to take them lightly.

While the Spartans do have a winning pointspread on the road the past few seasons, a closer look shows that they're actually only 2-18 SU their last 20 road games. All but two of those 18 losses came by a minimum of three points. I mention the SU record, as this line is low enough that a SU win has a strong chance in also resulting in an ATS cover.

As for the Aztecs, they're 12-5 their last 17 here and 11 of those wins came by a minimum of five points.

While the offense is starting to adjust to life without Lindley, the Aztec defense ranks 15th in the country, with 8.3 tackles per loss per game.

I look for homefield to prove the difference as the Aztecs improve to 17-3 SU the last 20 times that they were in the favorite role, covering the small number along the way. *9

I'm playing on COLORADO STATE. I successfully played on Utah State a couple of weeks ago while also successfully playing against Colorado State last week. However, this time I feel that the line value and betting situation are in favor of the Rams.



When I took the Aggies, they were listed as home underdogs vs. Utah. After beating the Utes, they did a good job of avoiding a letdown and very nearly won at Wisconsin last time out. However, a narrow 2-point loss may have them wondering "what if" a little here.



Either way, the Aggies are now in rather unfamiliar territory. They're 0-3 ATS the last three times that they were listed as road favorite at -10.5 to -14 point favorites.



During that stretch, the Rams were 4-2 ATS as home underdogs in the +10.5 to +14 range.



Overall, the Aggies are a poor 4-8-1 ATS the last 13 times that they were laying points, 2-7 ATS their last nine against teams with a losing record.



Last year's game was decided by a single point - and that was at Utah State. Including that 35-34 win, the Rams have won four straight in the series. This year's Colorado State squad, while still not a great team, is arguably better than last season's team and now they get to play at home. All things considered, I feel this line is generously high. *10

I'm playing on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. In part to their 3-0 record, the Cardinals are laying double-digits in this game. However, I feel that the difference in talent, experience and coaching doesn't warrant such a high number; certainly not on the road.

I respect the Cardinals. In fact, I won with them in their win against Kentucky. That was a fairly impressive win, blowing out a rival by 18 points. However, that was at home and a rebuilding Kentucky team was playing its first game of the season. As predicted, the experienced Cardinals took advantage of that. With Kentucky since having lost at home to Western Kentucky, it again shows that the Wildcats aren't much of a team.

The Cardinals other two wins also both came at home. One was against Missouri State - and they failed to cover. The other was against North Carolina and they won by five, giving up more than 400 yards in the process.

Now, off that narrow conference win, they're playing their first road game of the season. That can be tough in itself. Yet, they're also being asked to lay two touchdowns, which is considerably tougher.

FIU isn't getting much respect, thanks in part to a 1-2 record. The Golden Panthers are perhaps the best team in their conference though and that 1-2 record is a little deceiving. Both losses came on the road - the Golden Panthers dominated one statistically (vs. Duke) and rallied to cover (against a good UCF team) in the other, losing by 13. They also won their only home game.

You may recall that these same two teams faced each other at Louisville last year. I won with the Under in that game and watched the Golden Panthers go on the road and limit the Cardinals to just 17 points. FIU would win that game 24-17.

While Louisville admittedly has a stronger team than it did last season, I believe that the same can be said of this FIU team. Keep in mind that the Golden Panthers returned 17 starters from last year. While Louisville is well coached, I believe the same can be said of FIU, a team which went to a bowl in 2011 after closing the regular season with three straight double-digit wins.

While the Cards are 4-5 ATS the last nine times that they were road favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range, the Golden Panthers are 7-4 ATS the last 11 times that they were underdogs. With last year's upset, they're also 5-1 ATS their last six against the Big East. I'll gladly grab the big points but won't be surprised if they pull off the outright win. *10

I'm playing on BYU. When I played against BYU last week, it wasn't because I didn't feel that the Cougars were a good team. I just felt that the value lay against them. This week, while Boise is always well-coached and talented, I feel that the value lies on the Cougars.



Everyone knows how tough the Broncos are on the blue turf. That's caught up with them at the betting window though. Even with a cover here against Miami Ohio last week, the Broncos are only 4-9 ATS here the past 2+ seasons.



True, the Broncos covered in their opening week loss at Michigan State. However, they were dominated in that game (461-206 in yards) and were fortunate to get the cover.



BYU crushed Washington State and its lone loss (last week's game at Utah) came down to the wire and was decided by three points. This is a team which returned 14 starters from a team which won 10 games last season. They're arguably more talented than they were in 2011.



The same can't be said for the Broncos, that was evident in the game at Michigan State. Indeed, this team returned just seven starters from last year's 12- win team.



The Cougars are a profitable 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. I expect them to improve on those stats Thursday. *10

I'm playing on UTAH. There were a number of reasons why I played against the Utes in their last game. None of them were because they aren't a good team. Rather, I thought that their opponent (Utah State) was better than many realized and that the line was higher than it should be.



I also noted that the Utes typically didn't fare too well in the favorite role. Here's an excerpt from the analysis of that play: "...The Utes are an ugly 23-39 ATS the last 62 times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range and 3-8 ATS the last 11 times that they were laying points overall."



This time, however, its the Utes which are the underdog. That's typically a much better role for them, particularly when in this range. Indeed, they're 27-12-1 ATS the last 40 times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range, going a lucrative 47-26-1 ATS as underdogs over that time overall.



The fact that Utah crushed BYU last season will have a lot of people wanting to back the revenge-minded Cougars here. That will surely make BYU want to win. However, the fact is that BYU also really wanted to win last year. Teams always want to badly win these instate rivalries and the added motivation that comes from revenge isn't always as significant as many believe. Of course, if BYU does happen to win big, they'll be saying that revenge was a factor. I don't expect that'll be the case though. Note that the last game here was decided by a single point.



True, the Utes lost QB Jordan Wynn last time out. I don't feel that's as big a deal as many might imagine though. Even before the season, Kyle Whittingham noted this was the deepest QB rotation he'd had in eight years here. Hays will likely get the majority of the snaps but Travis Wilson could also see some snaps. Note that Hays threw three TDs in the postseason win over Georgia Tech.



I respect BYU. In fact, I won with the Cougars in their opening win against Washington State. That was at home though and the Cougars were still playing the first game under a new coach. They're playing their first road game here though and it comes against a well-coached bitter rival.



Most are throwing the Utes under the bus I still believe that this Utah team is very capable. They beat the Cougars 17-16 the last time that the teams met here. Another close win here won't surprise. *10

I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. I won with the Spartans in their opener. Playing at Stanford, they nearly pulled off the upset. Despite the close 20-17 loss, the Spartans didn't suffer a letdown in their second game. Instead, they took care of Cal Davis. Laying 20, they won by 32. Colorado State is better than Cal Davis. But the Rams are still not a very good team. I expect another double-digit win for a Spartans team which is playing with confidence.



The Rams were able to get up for their opening game against rival Colorado. Listed as 6-point underdogs, they won 22-17. Last week's result shows this team has a long way to go though. Playing at home, the Rams loss 22-7 against N. Dakota State.



The Spartans were underdogs at Colorado State last year. Yet, they never trailed the entire game and ended up winning 38-31. This year, they've got a stronger team. Its Coach MacIntyre's third season here and his best team yet.



On the other hand, the Rams have a new coach in Jim McElwain. While the cupboard isn't bare, keep in mind that McElwain inherited a team that was 3-9 last season. I'll repeat that last week's double-digit loss against N. Dakota State tells a lot about this team.



Note that the Rams are just 7-22 ATS their last 29 lined games on turf. They've won just two of 11 road games the past couple of seasons, going 4-7 ATS.



Despite facing less than dominant competition, the Rams offense is averaging only 231.0 ypg. They'll face a SJ State defense which ranks 18th in the nation with only 266.0 ypg allowed, despite having faced Stanford. Note that the Spartans rank 12th in the country with 9.5 tackles per loss per game. (The Rams rank 109th in that category, w/ 3.5 per game.) This is a SJ State team playing with confidence and licking its chops at the chance to climb above the .500 mark.



While both teams are 1-1, they enter this game going in different directions. The Spartans, who have won three of four, (upset both Fresno and Navy to close out 2011) were better than the Rams last season. Playing at home, I expect this year's stronger team to have an even bigger advantage. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on FIU. I believe that teams are a lot more evenly matched than is reflected in the line. Getting more than two touchdowns to work with, I feel the visiting Panthers are providing excellent value.



A look at last year's meeting between these schools shows that UCF was favored by 6 points. Yet, FIU won the game, 17-10. While we haven't necessarily seen that yet, this year's team is stronger. Keep in mind that this FIU squad entered the season as favorites to win the Sun Belt, bringing back numerous starters from last year's team.



True, the Panthers have failed to cover in both games - a big part of the reason for such a generous line. However, a closer look reveals that they dominated statistically in Week 1 but lost - so, they deserved a better fate there. Last week, perhaps overestimating their opponent, the Panthers didn't dominate the way they hoped to. They did claw their way to an OT win though. That should give them some confidence here and get them pointed in the right direction. The experience of playing and winning such a close game may also serve them well here.



Admittedly, this UCF team is pretty loaded. The Knights are among the most talented teams in their conference. Playing with revenge and also playing their home opener, they'll surely be fired up here. Note that the Knights are only 1-9 the last 16 years against instate opponents though. They should be happy if can just manage to win (SU) here.



Dating back to last season, the Knights have seen five of six games decided by 17 or fewer points. I look for this one to also prove closer than many will be expecting, with the Panthers improving to 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +14.5 to +21 range. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on ARIZONA. I believe that the Wildcats have had this game circled. For starters, its a chance to host a nationally ranked opponent. It also gives the Wildcats a chance to see how good they really are. Additionally, they haven't forgotten that these same Cowboys whipped them each of the last two seasons. I feel that they'll be highly motivated to prove that this year will be a different story.



The Wildcats have a new coach, in Rich Rodriguez. While Rodriguez wasn't around for last year's two losses, he sure knows the significance of this game and the opportunity it provides. He's brought some new excitement to the program and I expect his players to be ready to go.



True, the Wildcats failed to cover in their opener. Laying -10.5 points, they won by only seven, needing OT to do so. However, that 24-17 victory over Toledo tells only half the story.



A closer look at the stats shows that Arizona actually had a commanding 624-358 advantage in total yards. However, they had two TDs called back by penalties, missed a pair of easy FGs and also turned the ball over three times.



In other words, the Wildcats dominated. They just shot themselves in the foot a bit. In fact, their 624 yards was the second most in school history.



While the mistakes are a bit of a concern, that's partly expected in a team's first game of the season, particularly with a new coach. I really like how the game finished. The Wildcats overcame their mistakes and won in OT. Not only does that give them confidence and positive momentum, the fact that they weren't "perfect" should make it easier to focus on Rodriguez's message this week.



While the Cowboys are a well coached team, it may be a little harder for Gundy to get his message across this week. That's because his players may be patting themselves on the back a little, after an 84-0 blowout of Savannah State, thinking that every week is going to be a cakewalk.



Sure, Gundy was able to give his starters some extra rest. However, they didn't necessarily learn anything from the "lopsided" win and aren't likely to benefit from it as much as Arizona will from its "close" win.



Gundy had this to say of last weeks' rout: "It always concerns us because as a coach, you want to get your players enough work to where you feel like they've advanced in different areas and gotten prepared for the next week but you don't want to get them too much work to where they stress their bodies, they stress their legs or could have at times been vulnerable to some sort of an injury. We would have liked to have more work. It didn't work out that way."



Everyone remembers the Cowboys crushing opponents from the past couple of seasons. And, with last week's 84-0 win, many will assume that this year will just be business as usual. However, lets not forget that this team has 10 new starters from last year's Big 12 championship team. I feel that the line is very generous (it was only 14 LY and that was at OSU and it was only 4.5 here in 2010) and I look for the revenge-minded Wildcats to step up and earn AT LEAST the cover. *10 Revenge GOY

I'm playing on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. The Panthers didn't get off to the start they wanted. While they were underdogs, they still had hoped to win at Duke. That didn't happen. However, they did play well in the loss and this is still a solid team - one which will now be playing with some anger and which is playing its home opener. Taking a significant step down in class, I expect the Panthers to bounce back with a convincing win.



The Panthers have been in back to back bowl games. Although it's Week 2, after losing at Duke, FIU knows it absolutely can't afford to mess around here, if it wants to make it three in a row.



Akron's got a coach (Terry Bowden) with a recognizable last name. However, that's about all the Zips have. They've lost nine in a row, dating back to last season and were just 2-22 the last two years. They lost 56-14 vs. UCF last weekend, falling behind 35-0 out of the gate. This hasn't been a good role either. They're 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they were underdogs of greater than 21 points, 6-15-1 ATS as underdogs the last couple of seasons overall.



The Zips have all kinds of problems, including an inability to run and an inability to stop the run.



The Zips, who averaged 2.6 yards per carry in their opener, gave up an average of 219.6 yards on the ground last season, good for 108th in the country. I guess they should feel pretty good about allowing "only" 206 rushing yards (and 4 rushing TDs) last week.



Note that an already terrible defense lost perhaps its best player when linebacker Brian Wagner transferred in the offseason.



A closer look at last week's stats shows that the Panthers actually outgained Duke by a 513-420 margin. In his debut as the team's full-time starter, QB Jake Medlock threw for 348 yards and two TDs, without recording an interception.



All that offense didn't bother me at all last week - as I had a winning ticket on the Over in the FIU/Duke game. However, I do expect it to have a motivating effect on the Panthers defense here, as they'll look to bounce back with an improved effort. Keep in mind that this unit gave up only 19.4 points per game and led the Sun Belt with 2.7 sacks per contest in 2011. This year's team returned a whopping 17 starters, 10 of them on the defensive side of the ball.



Not only are the Panthers upset about las week's loss, all those starters are still smarting from losing in the bowl game last year. They'll be looking to take out their anger on someone and lowly Akron should be just what the doctor ordered.



The Panthers, picked to win the SBC by the leagues coaches prior to the season, dominated North Texas, 41-16, in last season's home opener. This one could easily prove more lopsided. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on IOWA. While I successfully played against the Hawkeyes last week, I feel that this will be an excellent spot to back them.



Playing at home and listed as +6.5 point underdogs, Iowa State won 44-41 against Iowa last season. Iowa won 35-7 the previous year, easily covering as -13 point favorites. That game was 35-0 until the Cyclones scored in "garbage time," too.



Due in part to last week's results, we don't have to lay nearly as big a number with the Hawkeyes on Saturday. I feel thats providing excellent value. Keep in mind that Iowa is 12-4 ATS the last 16 times that it was listed as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -7 range.



While I'm happy that they've helped us in terms of getting a more reasonable line, I'm not too worried about last week's results. There can be a bit of rust in Week 1 and Iowa was up against a Northern Illinois team which had the longest winning streak in the country. That game was also played at Soldier Field, which could have been a little intimidating for a young team. The Hawkeyes did still win the game and they did it in such a manner that they should be able to bring some positive momentum into Saturday.



Now back "home," the Hawkeyes will be confident. It should be noted that they've won 11 straight home openers and that those victories have come by an average of 33 points per game.



The Hawkeyes will be wearing "throwback" uniforms for this game, commemorating the 1921-22 back-to-back Big Ten championship teams that went a combined 14-0. Expect an inspired effort from the revenge-minded Hawkeyes, as they knock off their rivals and cover the small number along the way. *9

I'm playing on K-STATE. Some will likely see the Hurricanes getting this many points and be quick to back the underdog. I feel the Wildcats are favored by this many points for good reason though.



These teams met last September, at Miami. The Hurricanes were favored by double-digits but the Wildcats won outright. This year's K-State team should be better and now get to play at home.



While the Hurricanes returned 10 starters from last season and appear to be in a bit of a rebuilding year, the Wildcats returned 14 starters from a team which won 10 games last season.



Among the returning starters is QB Klein, who threw for 3000+ yards and whopping 40 TDs last season. The Wildcats return all the key components of their running game along with an experienced offensive line. Additionally, their receiving corps is more experienced than it has been the past few seasons.



The Hurricanes are playing their second straight road game, not an easy spot right out of the gate. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are playing their second straight at home.



The Wildcats are 7-5-1 ATS (13-3 SU) the last 13 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion Saturday afternoon. *9

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. There is no denying that Utah has had its way with its instate rival this millennium. Indeed, the Utes have won 12 straight meetings, most of them by a comfortable margin. Utah should be pretty good again this year, too. That said, I feel that the gap has narrowed between these teams and that the Utes will have a much tougher fight on their hands than they, or many others, will expect.



While the WAC may not be as tough as it once was, the Aggies are one of the best teams left in it. They were 7-5 last regular season, before losing by a single point in their bowl game, their first since 1997. A closer look at their five regular season losses shows that only one came by greater than a touchdown - and that was on the road at Fresno State.



Overall, including the bowl game, the Aggies' six losses came by an average of just 4.33 points.



They lost by only four points at Auburn, which was ranked in the Top 25 at the time. They also lost by only three points at BYU, while beating Nevada.



Overall, the Aggies saw no fewer than TEN of their 2011 games decided by seven points or less. In other words, this team is no stranger to playing close games. Having battled the likes of BYU and Auburn while also "playing in the postseason," the Aggies won't be intimidated by Utah, the way that they might normally be.



It looked like Utah State QB Kennedy, part of a terrific tandem with Chuckie Keeton, might be hurt last week. However, he'll be ready to go - the "stinger," which was to his non-throwing shoulder, reportedly proved less serious than originally feared.



Either way, Keeton was 22 for 25 for 304 yards and two touchdowns last week - and he can run too. Utah coach Whittingham acknowledged that Keeton's ability to both run and throw presents a "headache" for defensive coordinators. He went on to say this of Keeton: "He is a tremendous athlete with a good arm who moves well in the pocket."



The Utes are an ugly 23-39 ATS the last 62 times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range and 3-8 ATS the last 11 times that they were laying points overall. Meanwhile, the Aggies are an outstanding 14-5-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were getting points, not surprising given their tendency to play close games. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get with the highly motivated home underdog. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Its safe to say that not many people imagined Pittsburgh losing its opener to Youngstown State. Laying -18, the Panthers lost by 14. Ouch! I believe that result has worked in our favor though.



With the Panthers checking in at 0-1, many are wanting to back the Bearcats. As a result, we're getting more than three points to work with. Considering that these teams saw last year's game decided by just a field goal, that could well prove significant.



Additionally, I expect last week's shocker to serve us a wake-up call to the Panthers. They were embarrassed and it should have been easy for new coach Chryst to get his message across in practice this week. I expect a highly motivated effort.



The cupboard was far from bare for Chryst, former offensive coordinator at Wisconsin, as Pittsburgh returned numerous starters.



That's not really the case for the Bearcats, who suffered more offseason losses.



Note that Cincinnati was just 5-9 ATS in conference play the last couple of seasons. During that time, the Panthers were 11-3 ATS in conference play.



While Pittsburgh has had a game to work out the kinks, the Bearcats have not. I won't be surprised if that works to the Panthers' advantage.



The Panthers won 28-10 the last time they were here. I'll grab the points but won't be at all surprised by another outright Pittsburgh win. *10

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. It goes without saying that these teams don't like each other. Both teams come in with something to prove. With the Cardinals laying double-digits, its also assumed that they are the stronger team in this matchup, this year. While its true that these type of "rivalry" games aren't always won by the team which is stronger on paper, in this case, I feel that the large line is justified.

The Wildcats finished below .500 last season. A punchless offense was a big part of the problem. At less than 260 yards per game, they were 118th in total offense. While the Cats do return many of their skill players, scoring again figures to be an issue, particularly against what should be a stingy Louisville D. Playing without tailback Josh Clemons doesn't figure to help matters.

In 2011, Louisville was second in the Big East in total defense. The Cardinals were 23rd in the country in total defense and 10th in rushing defense. At home, they allowed a mere 15.8 points per game. They return the bulk of last year's defensive starters.

The Cardinals won 24-17 at Kentucky last season, covering as -4 point favorites. That was early (Sept 17) in the season. They got stronger late in the season, winning five of their final six. Big East Freshman of the Year Teddy Bridgewater came into his own.

Obviously, Kentucky plays in the tougher conference. Knowing this and perhaps also knowing that the road team has fared well in this series in recent seasons, many may be tempted to take the points. However, they should keep in mind that the Wildcats are 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 range, including an 0-2 mark as road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range.

The Cardinals had a commanding 181 to 35 advantage on the ground in last year's game. I believe they're better on both sides of the ball and I expect them to ultimately pull away for a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on TULSA. It would be fairly easy to make a case for the home team. The Cyclones hail from the "bigger" school and they also from the bigger conference. They've traditionally had success in home openers while Tulsa has traditionally struggled in road openers. The Cyclones are even a very slight underdog to boot. Those factors should have many tempted to back Iowa State. However, in my opinion, all that is trumped by Tulsa being the stronger team.





The Golden Hurricane had a very difficult early season schedule last season. Three of their first four games came against Top 10 teams (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State) including two of those games coming on the road. Those three teams ranked #1, #4 and #8 when Tulsa played them. So it wasn't all that surprising that the Golden Hurricane were 1-3 after their first four games. They didn't lose another game the rest of the entire regular season, until falling against Houston in the CUSA title game and then again against BYU (by only 3) in their bowl game.





That's a lot more than Iowa State can say though. The Cyclones are off back to back losing seasons and have now finished below .500 in five of the last six seasons. During that stretch, they are a combined 27-47. Last year's team did have a couple of memorable wins - regulars will recall we won with the Cyclones when they beat Oklahoma State outright. Still, it was another losing year - and this figures to be more of the same.



The Golden Hurricane have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 "road" games and they're 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they were listed as a road favorite - although in this case, the line is not likely to come into play.



While the Golden Hurricane are 4-2 SU/ATS the last few seasons when playing a game where the line ranged from the -3 to +3, the Cyclones are 0-2 SU/ATS when doing the same.





While last year's tough start was practically inevitable, Tulsa has visions of starting 8-0 this season. Whether or not the Golden Hurricane can accomplish that goal remains to be the seen, however, I look for them to at least take the first step on Saturday afternoon. *10 Annihilator

I'm playing on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. This game will be played at Soldier Field. These teams met here on this exact day, five years ago. The Hawkeyes eked out a cover on that day. Laying -12, they won by 13 points - a 16-3 victory. However, a closer look reveals that the stats weren't quite as lopsided as the score. The Hawkeyes did enjoy a solid edge on the ground but the Huskies threw for nearly 100 more yards. NIU ended up missing a 44 yard field goal while also throwing three interceptions on the Iowa side of the field. I believe that this year's teams enter the season on a more equal footing than they did for that game five years ago. (NIU finished only 2-10 in 2007!) Yet, the pointspread isn't that much different. That being the case, I feel that the underdog Huskies are providing excellent value.



Northern Illinois enters the season on a red hot run. In fact, including their bowl win, the Huskies have won nine straight games. They last lost in October 2011 and that was by only seven points. This team has had only had one loss of greater than seven points since the opening game of the 2010 season. That game last year vs. Wisconsin, the #7 team in the country at the time.



While they do lost QB Chandler Harnish - now known at Mr. Irrelevant - they do bring back a number of starters, particularly on defense.



Unlike the 2007 team, this year's Huskies should run the ball on Saturday afternoon. They finished 12th last year in rushing at 234.1 yards per game, while also scoring more than 38 points per game. QB Jordan Lynch is considered a better runner than Harnish, too.



Kirk Ferentz is still calling the shots in Iowa. However, the Hawkeyes have new coordinators on both offense and defense and are a relatively inexperienced team.



The Huskies are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, winning two of those games outright. They believe they can win this one outright and I expect them to keep it close the entire way. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. With Andrew Luck running the show, the Cardinal have been very good the past couple of seasons. Harbaugh left after a very good 2010 season and the team lost a number of key players. Yet, they became even more profitable under Shaw, failing to cover only twice all season. Luck is now with the Colts though and the team has several other key losses. I don't expect such a dominating pointspread record for Stanford this year and feel that this initial line is a little on the high side.





In addition to losing Luck, the Cardinal will be without tight end Coby Fleener, who led the team with 10 touchdown receptions a year ago. He was a second-round pick by the Colts, Also, offensive linemen David DeCastro and Jonathan Martin were selected in the first and second rounds, respectively.



The Stanford defense does return seven starters. However, one of those is Shayne Skov and he's been suspended for this game.





You may recall that these teams also met in last season's opener. Yes, the Cardinal won by a commanding 57-3 margin. However, that was with Luck running the show. It should also be noted that the score was a little misleading. The Cardinal benefitted from excellent field position, as three of their second quarter scoring drives came from 22 total yards of offense. In fact, the Spartans enjoyed an edge in total yards of offense in the first half, while also recording one more first down.





After the debacle vs. Stanford, the Spartans really came together. While they went only 5-6 the rest of the way, none of those other six losses came by greater than 13 points. In fact, the only other loss of greater than 10 points came at BYU - and that was by only 13. Each of their final four games were decided by a field goal or less including victories vs. Navy and Fresno State to close out the season.





While they did lose some players, this is still arguably McIntrye's most talented team. He's played at Alabama and Stanford in his first two games of his first two seasons - so he knows what to expect here.





Last year's game here notwithstanding, McIntyre's teams have been excellent in the underdog role. I look for the Spartans to keep this one closer than most will be expecting, as life without Luck proves slightly more difficult than imagined. *10

I'm playing on BYU. Perhaps the biggest story attached to this game is the return of Mike Leach to the sidelines. The former Texas Tech coach had plenty of success, prior to getting run out of town in 2009. He'll look to some excitement back to Washington State. Given his track record, the Cougars are likely to improve under Leach's watch. However, this is a very tough test for them and I don't expect that improvement to be immediate.



While the cupboard is not bare, in terms of talent, the Cougars are learning a brand new offense. Washington State should get decent QB play and does have a bigtime receiver in Marquess Wilson. He'll surely be a big part of the offense. However, BYU is well aware of Wilson - and after Wilson, the rest of the supporting cast has some question marks.



The defense gave up more than 400 yards per game last season and now switches from a 4-3 to a 3-4. That may also take some time.



I feel that BYU has an advantage on both the offensive and the defensive line.



I look for BYU to have success exploiting WSU's suspect front seven. BYU, a well coached team with an established system, will be hungry to start off well after a sluggish start last season. The Cougars have a senior quarterback, a talented offensive line and a dynamic pair of big and fast receivers. (Hoffman and Apo are 6'4" and 6'3".)



The defense is also talented and experienced. Keep in mind that BYU closed out last season by winning its final three games by a combined score of 42-14, prior to knocking off Tulsa (by 3) in the bowl.



The Cougars outscored teams by an average score of 32.9 to 18.3 here last season, outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game here. Note that the margin of victory is greater than two touchdowns. (Washington State was outscored by an average score of 36 to 22.4, a margin of greater than 13 per game.



Leach, a BYU alum, gets a rude welcome back to the game. I expect the home team to pull away for a convincing win. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. As you are surely aware, this is a rematch of an earlier meeting, at Alabama. While some may not like it, I believe its the best matchup. (Lets not forget that Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State.) More importantly, like it or not, I believe Alabama will prove that it belongs to be here. Many will likely point to the fact that LSU won at Tuscaloosa and they'll be quick to back the undefeated Tigers at New Orleans. That game was hardly a "blowout" though. If you recall, it went to Overtime, a 9-6 victory for the Tigers. A look at the stats reminds us that Alabama had a 295 to 239 edge in total yards. The Tide had a slight edge in time of possession and had more first downs. While LSU punted six times, Alabama did so only twice. Missed field goals (Alabama missed four) were the difference. I agree with Alabama coach Nick Saban when he said the following though: "This could be a totally different type of game. There's so many good players on both sides of the ball for both teams. There's so much opportunity for this game to play out completely different and have a completely different flavor than the first game." Note that Alabama still leads 45-25-5 in this rivalry, dating all the way back to 1895. While LSU had a very slight edge in overall points scored (38.5 to 36), keep in mind that Alabama averaged 433.4 yards to LSU's 375.3. Also, on the road, Alabama averaged 36.6 points and 424.6 yards. LSU, when playing on the road, averaged 35.3 points and 331 yards. (Of course, that's due in no small part to the fact that LSU had to play Alabama on the road.) More importantly, lets not forget that Alabama still has the #1 ranked defense in the country and that ALL 11 of its victories came by at least 16 points. The Tide allowed 191.3 yards per game. The Tigers allowed 252.1. We don't always get second chances in life and teams rarely get them (at this stage) in football. The Tide get one here and I expect them to make the most of it. *10

Reason: I'm playing on V-TECH. I was happy to see the Hokies get blown out by Clemson in their last game, as I had a big play on Clemson in that one. However, I fully expect them to bounce back with a MUCH better effort here. Prior to the Clemson loss, the Hokies had won seven straight and 11 of 12. In fact, Clemson was the only team to beat them all year. Admittedly, the rest of the schedule wasn't all that challenging - however, the Hokies took care of business, beating the likes of Virginia, UNC, Miami, Georgia-Tech and Wake Forest. Michigan did close out the season with wins over Ohio State and Nebraska, which will stand in bettors' memories - like the Hokies' loss to Clemson. However, before that, their biggest wins were Ilinois and Notre Dame - and they were very fortunate to beat Notre Dame. They lost by double-digits against Michigan State and by eight vs. Iowa. So, the Wolverines' schedule wasn't all that tough either. Both teams should be motivated to win. However, I really feel that the season-ending loss to Clemson has left a bad taste in the mouths of the Hokies and I expect them to be a little more "hungry" here. Michigan, on the other hand, is just 2-7 ATS its last nine, when off a conference win. The Wolverines are an awful 5-15 ATS against teams with a winning record the past few seasons. During that stretch, the Hokies were 10-7 ATS (12-5 SU) against teams with a winning record. The Wolverines are 3-4 ATS the past few seasons when playing with a line in the +3 to -3 range. During that stretch, the Hokies are 4-1 SU/ATS when doing so. I expect them to be the team which "gets the cash" once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on STANFORD. Regulars will recall that I had a big winning play against Stanford when the Cardinal faced California. However, that play was based (in large part) on the fact that I felt Stanford would be "disappointed," due to having lost (vs. Oregon) the previous week. That indeed seemed to be the case. The Cardinal did win. However, they only won by three points, a game in which they were laying -17.5. The Cardinal have had plenty of time to recover from that disappointment though and I feel that they'll be completely "up" for this game. Regulars will also recall that I had a big play against Oklahoma State when the Cowboys lost to Iowa State. I had a number of reasons for playing against the Cowboys in that game. Mostly, however, I felt that they were simply laying too many points. I'll admit that I didn't actually expect the Cowboys to lose outright in that game. However, that's exactly what happened. To their credit, the Cowboys responded to that setback by blowing out Oklahoma in their next game - no small feat. However, as you know, that still wasn't enough to get them into the National Championship game. The Cowboys feel like they received the short end of the stick. Unlike Stanford, they're "disappointed" to be here. I expect that to have a negative effect on them. In addition to the fact that Stanford is happier to be here, I feel the Cardinal match up very well with the Cowboys and that the teams are quite evenly matched. Obviously, both have bigtime QBs. However, Luck is the much bigger NFL prospect and I feel that's for good reason. The Cowboys #1 receiver is arguably better than any of Stanford's receivers - however, Luck is so good that he makes all his receivers excellent. While Luck gets all the attention, its on the defensive side of the ball where the Cardinal should have the advantage. Stanford allowed 20.3 points per game and 19.8 on the road. The Cardinal allowed 331.1 yards per game, 328.4 away from home. On the other hand, the Cowboys allowed 25.8 points per game and 445.7 yards. While the Cowboys lost vs. lowly Iowa State, Stanford's lone loss came vs. Oregon, one of the best teams in the country. The Cowboys have been great at the betting window for a few years now. The Cardinal have been even better though. While I expect an outright win, I'll gladly grab all the points I can get! *10

Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I successfully played against Nebraska in last year's bowl game. The Huskers were double-digit favorites but lost outright by a score of 19-7 against Washington. I also successfully played against South Carolina in last year's bowl game. The Gamecocks were favored by three points but lost outright (26-17) against Florida State. This year, however, I'm backing the Gamecocks. For starers, I feel the Gamecocks are a better team. Playing in the SEC, they finished with 10 wins. Nebraska played in the Big-Ten but only finished with nine wins. Nebraska beat Penn State - however, that was after the scandal - and the Huskers won by only three points. They beat Iowa and Washington, Ohio State and Michigan State. However, those wins all came at home and they only covered in two of them. They were crushed by Wisconsin and Michigan (48-17 and 45-17!) and even lost at home vs. Northwestern, when laying -17.5. South Carolina beat the likes of Georgia, Navy, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Flordia and Clemson. They did get blown out at Arkansas - but not by nearly as much as Nebraska did against Michigan or Wisconsin. Their other loss (vs. Auburn) came by three points. Both teams averaged roughly 30 points per game. Nebraska scored 30.5, South Carolina scored 30.1. However, South Carolina's numbers improved on the road (31.4 ppg) while Nebraska managed only 26 on the road. Also, note that the Gamecocks averaged better than 30 points their last three games while the Huskers averaged just 18. On the other side of the ball, the Gamecocks allowed a mere 18.8 points per game and just 268.9 yards per game. That 269 ypg ranks fourth best in the country. (That includes a 133 mark against the pass, second best in the country.) Meanwhile, the Huskers allow 22.8 points per game and 350.7 yards. Those numbers climb to 27 and 367.6 on the road. The Gamecocks should have plenty of motivation. They haven't won a bowl under Spurrier AND a win here will give them the first 11 win season in school history. As defensive end Melvin Ingram noted: "Since I've been here, we haven't won a bowl game and so we're trying to go out and change that, got out and get that 11th win and make history..." All things considered, in my opinion, getting the Gamecocks at such a short number is a bargain. They're 6-2 SU/ATS the last eight times that they played a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range, including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark their last three in that situation. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Commodores hail from the better conference. I believe the Bearcats will prove to be the better team. While I believe they could still win without him, the Bearcats are expected to have senior QB Zach Collaros back behind center. As Isaiah Pead (11 TDS, 1,110 rushing yards) noted: "We're glad to see him out there. Anytime you've got a fifth-year senior at any position on offense, it's a comfortable feeling. We're very happy to have him back." I guess so! All Collaros did was comple 63.4 percent of his throws for 1,860 yards, 14 TDs and eight interceptions. He also ran for eight scores. Remember, he was the Big East leader in passing yards AND TDs last season. While Collaros has certainly played a big part, the Bearcats defense is arguably the biggest difference in the turnaround from a 4-8 2010 to a 9-3 2011. Cincinnati allowed an average of just 20.0 points this season - down from 28 last year. Note the the Bearcats' D led the nation with 3.6 sacks and 8.9 tackles for loss per game. While the schedule was naturally quite tough, the Commodores were still only 6-6 this season. They like to run the ball - and they'll be up against a Cincy run defense which ranked seventh in the entire nation, giving up a mere 92.6 yards per game. Vanderbilt, which has 1st year coach, is only 1-12 SU and 5-8 ATS the last 1 times it faced a team with a winning record. I like what Butch Jones, now in his second year here, has done with the Bearcats and I look for them to step up and score the minor "upset." *10

Reason: I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I've won with Florida State in back to back bowl games. Last season, I backed the Seminoles against South Carolina and they rewarded me with a 26-17 victory. The previous year, I backed them against West Virginia and they came through with a 33-21 win. While I still respect the Seminoles, this year, I feel the value lies in going against them. In each of the last two years, I felt the Seminoles were providing strong value as underdogs. Those were both relatively "big" bowl games as they were played on 12/31 and 1/1. They also represented Bowden's last bowl game and Fischer's first, without Bowden. So, there was plenty of reason to be excited for those games and they had a lot of motivation to win them. In each of the last two bowls, the Seminoles were underdogs. This year, however, they're the ones laying points. That's not such a good role for them. The Noles are 11-14 ATS the last 25 times that they were laying points and that inlcudes an ugly 2-5 ATS mark as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. Four of those five ATS losses resulted in SU losses, too. During the same stretch, the Irish were 6-2-1 ATS as underdogs, including a 5-2-1 ATS mark as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. The Irish did lose at Stanford to close out the season. However, they'd previously won four straight and eight of nine. Note that two of their four losses came by four or less. Also, two of Notre Dame's victories came by three or less. So, getting more than a field goal could certainly prove valuable. Likewise, the Seminoles saw four games decided by five or fewer goals, most recently a 14-13 loss vs. Virginia (as a double-digit favorite!) in their home finale. While the Florida State defense is admittedly stout, the offense has been hampered by injuries all season. The Seminoles' offensive line is a weakness and the running game ranked just 99th in the country. I expect the Irish to have an advantage in that department. In what could well be a very close game, with this line having climbed above the field goal mark, I feel the value lies with the Irish. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. I had success playing on/against the Broncos this season. I feel this will be a good spot to play ON them. The Broncos had a strong season and enter playing their best football. They were 3-1 SU/ATS their last four games. Two of the victories came by double-digits and the lone loss came by only three points, when listed as a +12 point underdog. With the Broncos currently getting a few points in this one, note that three of their five losses came by four points or less. Having never won a bowl game, the Broncos should be extremely motivated. Note that Western Michigan scored at least 38 points seven times this season. Its true that the Boilermakers hail from the stronger conference and also that they too should be motivated to win this game. They've been inconsistent all season though and enter today's game having gone just 1-4 ATS their last five. While I do think Purdue will "want" to win, focus may be an issue. The Boilermakers have had tree players arrested and another suspended since the end of the season. Additionally, receiver O.J. Ross and linebacker Dwayne Beckford won't play. While the Boilermakers had four double-digit losses on the season, like WMU, they also played a number of close games. Six of their games were decided by eight or fewer points, three of them getting decided by three or less. Speaking of "close games," this bowl has a recent history of very tight games. In fact, four straight in this bowl (dating back to when it was called the Motor City Bowl) have been decided by four or fewer points, three of those by a field goal or less. The 2010 game had a score of 34-32. The 2009 score was 21-17. In 2008, the final was 24-21. Purdue played in this bowl in 2007 and that game had a final of 51-48. The Boilermakers are just 5-9-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were laying points. During that stretch, they were 1-3 ATS when facing teams from the MAC. While the Boilermakers were 1-2 SU/ATS when the line ranged from -3 to +3, the Broncos were 2-1 SU/ATS in that situation. Given all the close games, I'll grab the points. However, I expect the Broncos to step up and win this one outright. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEVADA. As you probably know, Southern Miss. closed out the season by blowing out undefeated Houston. That victory was certainly impressive. However, it has also caused the Golden Eagles to be viewed as an "elite" team which in turn has them laying a large number here. I feel it will prove to be too large. Yes, beating Houston was impressive, which is what will stand in everyone's memories. However, lets not forget that the Golden Eagles were 0-3 ATS their previous three games. They blew out a terrible Memphis team but not by enough to cover. Prior to that, they lost by three points vs. a bad (3-9) UAB team - and they were laying -24 for that one! Before that, they won by only one vs. UCF. Also, note that Houston was undefeated but hadn't really faced any quality opposition. Houston's toughest previous opponents were arguably UCLA and LA Tech (neither elite teams) and they won those games by only five combined points. So, Houston's previous undefeated record needs to be viewed with a grain of salt. Speaking of "easy schedules," prior to facing Houston, the Golden Eagles toughest opponents were LA Tech, Marshall, Virginia, SMU and Navy. While Marshall and LA Tech have both just covered in their bowl games, none of those teams could exactly be called elite. The Golden Eagles did blow out SMU and Navy - but those teams were only a combined 12-12 on the year. The games against Virginia, Marshall and LA Tech were ALL very close. They beat the Bulldogs by only two points. They lost outright vs. Marshall (by 6) and they beat Virginia by only six. Nevada is arguably better than any of those teams, yet the Golden Eagles are being asked to lay a touchdown, or more. I believe that's asking too much. I believe that is especially true, considering that Southern Miss doesn't even want to be here (the Golden Eagles thought they deserved better and wanted to be in the Liberty Bowl) and given that their coach (Larry Fedora) has already accepted a job at North Carolina. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack have a coach (Chris Ault) who isn't going anywhere and who has guided this program for a long time. Nevada can flat out score points. Indeed, the Wolfpack ranked fifth in the entire nation in total offense, averaging just more than 522 yards per game. Of course, that comes in handy when trying to cover a spread as an underdog. The Wolfpack were 2-1 ATS when getting points this season and are 5-3 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons. While the Wolfpack finished at "only" 7-5, they faced some truly elite teams, including Oregon and Boise State - both on the road. They did get blown out in both those games (although they still covered at Boise) but their other three losses ALL came by four points or less. So, unless facing a legit top tier opponent (Boise and Oregon are both much better than Southern Miss, at least in my opinion) the Wolfpack were competitive in every single game. Note that they enter the bowls off a confidence-building 56-3 destruction of Idaho. Both teams were involved in "close" games last bowl season. The Golden Eagles lost by three; the Wolfpack won by seven. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all those generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MARSHALL. Many are likely to back the favorite in this one. After all, the Golden Panthers had the superior record, are well-coached and are playing in their home state. I'm not buying it. The Thundering Herd are also well-coached and are playing their best football of the season right now. I don't feel that they're satisfied just to be here and I don't feel they'll be at all intimidated by the Panthers. Yes, FIU had eight wins compared to Marshall's six. However, keep in mind that the Thundering Herd played the likes of West Virginia, V-Tech, Southern Miss, Ohio, Tulsa, Houston and Louisville. ALL seven of those teams are playing in bowls. The Panthers, on the other hand, also faced Louisville but otherwise their only other two bowl opponents were LA-Lafayette and Arkansas State - both teams from within their own conference. FIU lost both those games, while also losing to Western Kentucky, the other team in their conference with a winning conference record. So, the difference in records needs to be viewed with a "grain of salt." Note that both teams beat Louisville but Marshall also beat Southern Miss, a victory which was arguably more impressive than anything the Panthers accomplished. FIU is indeed well-coached. However, with their coach (Mario Cristobal) being talked up as a possible hire at a "bigger" school (he reportedly spoke to Pittsburgh on Friday) the Panthers could be slightly distracted. While not spoken of so much, note that Marshall is also very well-coached. Yes, FIU enters on a 3-game winning streak. However, those three games came against the likes of Florida Atlantic, LA Monroe and Middle Tennessee State. Those three teams had a combined record of 7-29 overall and a combined 4-19 mark in conference play. So, even those games need to be taken with a grain of salt. Marshall enters off back to back victories of its own, beating East Carolina in its final game to become bowl eligible - the Pirates are arguably much better than any of the three teams that FIU beat to close out the season. While the Panthers were 3-5 ATS as favorites, the Herd were 5-3 ATS as underdogs. The Panthers are 8-12-1 ATS when laying points the past few seasons. Note that they're also an awful 2-15 SU the last 17 times that they played with two or more week's rest in between games. The Panthers saw five games decided by a TD or less. The Herd also saw five decided by a TD or less. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both finished with identical 8-4 records. LA-Lafayette had the superior ATS record and will play this game much closer to home. However, the Aztecs had the better "away" record and I believe that they're the stronger squad. The Aztecs were 4-1 SU on the road. They outscored opponents by a 24 to 20.8 margin in those games. On the other hand, LA-Lafayette was only 3-4 away from home, getting outscored by a 34.4 to 30.9 margin in those games. The Aztecs also enter as the "hotter" team. They won their last two games, a 31-14 blowout win at UNLV followed up by a 35-28 victory over Fresno State. Prior to that, they covered the spread vs. Boise State, scoring 35 in the process. On the other hand, the Ragin Cajuns enter off back to back losses. Each defeat came by more than a touchdown. San Diego State is 10-4 SU its last 14 non-conference games. During the same stretch, LA-Lafayette is 4-8 SU against non-conference opponents. Going back further finds the Cajuns at a dismal 14-52 their last 66 non-conf. games. Of course, SD State plays in the far more difficult conference and was tested far more often. The Aztecs faced the likes of Michigan, TCU, Boise and Air Force. Other than the loss to Arizona, a team which was inconsistent this year, the Cajuns only top tier opponent was Oklahoma State - that game came back in September and they allowed 61 points, losing by 27. In these "early" bowl games, its always important to consider which team is happier to be there. One could potentially argue that the game is bigger for the Rajin Cajuns as they're their making its first bowl appearance in 41 years. Still, the Aztecs aren't exactly used to playing bowl games every year; they played last year but that was their first bowl appearance since the 90s. So, I feel they're still going to be "fired up" to be here - particularly as last year's team didn't have to travel for its bowl game - a 35-14 blowout of Navy, which was played at San Diego. Meanwhile, the Cajuns may be feeling "happy just to be here." In the end, I look for the Aztecs' superior talent to be the difference. They've got a bigtime running back (Ronnie Hillman had 4 TDs and 178 yrds in the finale vs. Fresno!) and an experienced and very capable senior QB. Ryan Lindley has thrown for more than 12,000 yards (with 87 TDs) in his career with SD State. I expect the Aztecs to again score plenty of points and feel the Cajins will have trouble keeping up. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ARMY. As you're probably aware, Navy has dominated this series in recent years. In fact, the Midshipmen have won nine straight meetings with Army by double-digits. The teams are far more evenly matched this year though and I'm expecting a much closer affair. Admittedly, the Black Knights didn't have a great season. They're off three straight losses and finished just 3-8 SU and 5-6 ATS. This year, however, Navy wasn't much better. The Midshipmen also finished with sub-500 record. They were 4-7 SU, matching Army's 5-6 ATS mark. While Navy beat up on Troy, the Trojans had a down year this season. A more impressive victory came against SMU. However, it should be noted that the Midshipmen won that one by only seven. That was one of SIX games that they played which was decided by seven or fewer points. Their other two victories came against Western Kentucky and Delaware, not exactly national powerhouses. The Knights also played some close games. Three of their games were decided by seven or less. While their most recent victory (55-0 vs. Fordham) came against a lesser team, the Knights did also knock off Tulane and Northwestern. Navy has had trouble against "losing" teams. Even including last year's cover against Army, the Midshipmen are still only 3-8 ATS their last 11 against teams with a losing record. On the other hand, during the same stretch, Army was 5-2 SU/ATS when matched up against a team with a losing record. Needless to say, both teams will really want this game. However, given their losing streak in the series and knowing that this may finally be their chance, I expect Army to be a little more "hungry." In the end, in a game that could easily come down to the wire, I expect that to lead to at least a cover for the Knights. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Spartans have the higher ranking and are certainly tough. However, I feel that the Badgers are favored for good reason. The Badgers did lose vs. the Sparatans in the "regular" season. However, that was at Michigan State and the Badgers weren't as tough when playing on an opponent's home field. Note that I successfully played against the Badgers on the road when they lost at Ohio State AND when they failed to cover at Illinois. However, again those were both on the opposing team's home field. In this case, the game will be played on a "neutral" field. Therefore, its worth noting that the Badgers are 12-7 SU/ATS their last 19 "neutral" field games, including 3-0 ATS their last four. On the other hand, the Spartans are 3-10 SU/ATS their last 13 "neutral" field games, going 0-3 ATS their last three. While the Spartans have won just two of their last 10 December games, the Badgers have won six of their last eight December games. Both teams play great defense. The Badgers allow 15.2 points per game and the Spartans allow 15.4. The Badgers have the edge on the other side of the ball though. Michigan State averages a respectable 30.2 points per game. However, that number dips all the way down to 18.8 away from home. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is averaging a whopping 44. 8 points per game, 35.8 on the road. The Spartans averaged 29 points per game against conference opponents, the Badgers averaged 43. The Badgers average 477.1 yards of offense, 430.4 on the road. The Spartans average 383.7 yards of offense, just 337.8 on the road. The Badgers are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were neutral field favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. The Spartans are 0-4 SU/ATS their last four, as neutral field underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. Its payback time. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on CLEMSON. I successfully played against Clemson last week. The Tigers already had the division wrapped up though and therefore, I expected the Gamecocks to be the more hungry squad. That turned out to be the case, as South Carolina smashed the Tigers by a score of 34-13. Don't underestimate this team based on the results of the last two weeks. The Tigers were as high as #5 in the national rankings at one point and they still finished with nine wins. At one point they beat three straight ranked opponents, one of those came at Blacksburg, a 23-3 victory against these same Hokies. While I'm aware that the Hokies have been tough in the "revenge" role. However, I feel factor is often over-rated and in this case, I feel its been another factor, along with Clemson's last two losses, which are helping to provide us with excellent line value. Admittedly, the V-Tech defensive stats are far better than the Clemson ones. The Tigers have the type of offense that can help make up for that though. They averaged 33.2 points and 440 yards per game - both better stats than V-Tech, which also has a strong attack. Also, as the Hokies know, the Tigers ARE fully capable of playing tough defense. Clemson held Virginia Tech to a season low 258 yards and without a touchdown; The first time that has happened at home for the Hokies since 1995. The Hokies did blow out Virginia last time out. However, three of their previous six games, including two of their previous three, were decided by four points or less. So, they've been involved in plenty of recent close games. Clemson is 48-32-2 ATS the last 82 times it was getting points. That includes an outstanding 25-12-1 ATS when the Tigers were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range, including 5-1 ATS their last six in that role. The Tigers are also 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were off back to back losses. I'm expecting this one to go down to the wire and am grabbing the generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on HAWAII. The Cougars have the better record and may indeed be the better team. However, that doesn't always ensure a cover. Far from it. BYU is playing at Hawaii, often difficult to begin with. However, that task could be extra difficult, as the Cougars are likely to be more susceptible to the "island distractions," due to having already agreed to play in the Armed Forces Bowl. While the Cougars are far from home and have little to play for, the Warriors have much on the line. If they win here, they get to play in the Hawaii Bowl. If they lose, they don't play in a bowl and have to watch two other teams play here in their stadium. Yes, they lost their starting QB a few weeks back. However, this is a team which has been able to get strong QB play over the years, from just about anyone they throw in there. The Warriors showed that in their last game, earning a double-digit win, scoring 35 points in the process. While BYU averages 24 points per game on the road, Hawaii averages 37 here at home. With the pointspread up over a touchdown, it should be noted that the Warriors have been involved in numerous close games. They won by 12 last week. However, three of their previous six games were decided by a field goal or less. Each of their last seven games has been decided by a dozen points or less. It should also be noted that the Cougars are only 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. The Warriors lost by just three points at BYU the last time (2002) that they faced the Cougars and are 6-3 ATS the last nine meetings in the series. I'll take the points but I expect the Warriors to want this game more and for that to lead to an outright uspet. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OHIO. These teams are both certainly deserving of being here. Both teams are talented and both played their best down the stretch. The Huskies enter on a 7-game winning streak. The Bobcats aren't far behind them though, as they've won five straight. While I successfully played against the Bobcats in each of their last two games, I feel they're the team which is providing us with the value here. Yes, I played against Ohio each of its last two games. However, each time I said that I respected that Bobcats, only that I felt they were laying too many points. They still won each game outright, most recently a 7-point win over a fairly solid and determined Miami Ohio squad. This week, however, its the Bobcats which are getting points. In fact, due in part to failing to cover the last two weeks, they're even getting more than a field goal. Given all the recent close games by these teams, that could easily prove significant. Last week, among the reasons, I played against the Bobcats was that they'd already clinched a spot in this game. They still won. But "only" by seven. Including that victory, they've now seen seven of nine games decided by eight points or less. Four of those were decided by four or less, two by a single point. The Huskies are no stranger to close games either. Laying -17.5, they won by only six last time out. In their previous game, they were laying -18 and won by just three points. In fact, three of their last five games have been decided by a field goal or less, four of them decided by six or fewer. Not surprisingly, the Huskies were only 4-6 ATS as favorites this season. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 8-4 ATS the last dozen times they were listed as underdogs. There is no denying that the Huskies have a bigtime offense, as they average nearly 40 points per game. The Bobcats are no slouches offensively either though. They've got the third best offense in the conference and rank 18th in the country. Its on the other side of the ball that the Bobcats figure to have the advantage. They allow just 21.7 points and 352.1 yards per game. The Bobcats allowed a few more yards (385) on the road, but still less than 400. On the other hand, the Huskies allowed 32 points per game, including 41 on the road. When playing away from home, they allowed a whopping 535.5 yards per game. The Bobcats, who have a veteran coach in Frank Solich, have had some extra preparation time. They last played on 11/22. The Huskies, who have a 1st year head coach, haven't had as much time, as they last played on 11/25. With the Bobcats at 6-1 ATS the last seven times they faced a team with a winning record, I'm grabbing the points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. This is a very big game for the Mountaineers. West Virginia is already bowl eligible. However, the Mountaineers can clinch a 3-way tie for the Big East Title. To do that, they'd need to win this game AND have Cincy beat UConn on Saturday. Given that the Huskies generally aren't as good on the road and that the Bearcats are currently a -9 point (-350 on ML) favorite, the Mountaineers probably feel that their chances of earning that 3-way tie are pretty good. (If Cincy loses, then Louisville wins.) If the 3-way tie happened, the team with the highest ranking in the final BCS standings would get the BCS berth, possibly the Orange Bowl on January 4th. While that certainly makes this a very big game, it also gives them a much bigger game to "look ahead" to. Despite West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen insisting otherwise, that's a very real possibility. Whether or not that's the case, I expect the Mountaineers to run into a tougher opponent than they're expecting. While this is a huge game for the Mountaineers, its a "must win" game for the Bulls, if they want to become bowl eligible. It also offers them one last chance to redeem themselves for what has otherwise admittedly been a very disappointing finish to the season. Keep in mind that the Bulls were expected to contend for the title themselves. Also, lets remember that they haven't missed a bowl game since 2004. The Bulls, who are hoping to have QB Daniels back, haven't been winning but they're still fighting hard. In fact, their last five losses have been by a combined total of 25 points. Coach Holtz had this to say about the losses: "I take it personal. We've come close, but we haven't done a good enough job." While I successfully played against the Bulls the last time (9/29) that they played on a Thursday night. That was on the road though (at Pittsburgh) and they weren't in "desperation mode." I expect Holtz to have his team better prepared this time and fired up to play the big game at home. The Bulls lost at West Virginia last season but they beat the Mountaineers each of the last two games here at South Florida. I expect them to step up and do it again on Thursday. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I successfully played against Stanford last week. The Cardinal were -17 point favorites vs. Cal and they won by only three points. One of the reasons that I played against the Cardinal was that I felt they weren't fully "recovered" from their loss to Oregon. While they'd surely like a convincing win here, I still don't think that they've got the Oregon loss out of their heads. Either way, this is a very talented Notre Dame team, one which expects to leave here with a victory. Since dropping a pair of games they easily could have won to start the season, The Irish have won eight of nine, including four straight. They did lose running back Jonas Gray last week. However, they still have another very capable back in Cierre Wood. Indeed, Wood already has more than 1000 rushing yards, including 94 last week. Meanwhile, Michael Floyd is among the best receivers around. He's already topped the 1000 yard mark in receiving, after also doing so last season. In his three games against Stanford, he's got 19 receptions for 310 yards and three TDs. Admittedly, the Irish didn't play well against USC - and they lost that one by 14. Beating Stanford, a team which defeated USC, would go along way in redeeming that loss though - and I expect the Irish to be extremely motivated to do just that. Added motivation comes from the fact that the Cardinal have defeated them the past two seasons. Keep in mind that ND's other two losses both came by four or fewer points. The Irish didn't cover vs. Stanford last season. That was the only time that they failed to get the cash the past nine times that they were "getting points" though, as we find them at 8-1 ATS their last nine as underdogs, dating back to before Christmas of 2008. I expect them to improve on those stats here and won't be at all surprised by an outright win. *10 main event

Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. Clemson is already set to play in the ACC title game. However, the Tigers have lost two of three, turning the ball over a whopping 11 times in the process. Last week, they lost 37-13 against NC State. Even Clemson coach Dabo Swinney noted this of the Tigers' last three games: "We're lucky we hadn't lost all three." While the Tigers have a "bigger" game on deck, this one is huge for South Carolina. The Gamecocks have a chance to get to 10 wins, which would match the best mark in school history. As coach Spurrier noted: "If you're not in the conference championship game, this becomes the biggest game of the year for us." The Gamecocks offense finally got back on track last time out - albeit against a lesser opponent. Meanwhile, the defense has been among the best in the country all year. The South Carolina defense ranks fifth in the FBS in total defense (279.5 yards per game) and second against the pass (137.5). Spurrier said this of the big offensive performance: "Might have been the best offensive game since I've been here..." The Gamecocks are 3-1 ATS their last four against the ACC and have won 11 of their last 13 non-conference games. They crushed Clemson 29-7 last season and 34-17 the previous year. I expect "more of the same" on Saturday. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on KENTUCKY. On paper, the Volunteers have more to play for. With an exciting and controversial win over Vanderbilt last week, this game matters for them. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are playing out the string. That doesn't mean that they don't want to close out their season with a win though, while doing some "spoiling" at the same time. While Kentucky is off back to back losses, both those came on the road. They certainly haven't quit either. Last week, the Wildcats lost by only nine, at Georgia. In their last home game, the Wildcats crushed Ole Miss by a score of 30-13. Note that Kentucky is a profitable 6-2 ATS the last eight times it was off back to back SU losses. While the competition has admittedly been very tough, the Vols are winless on the road. Every road game has resulted in a double-digit loss and they've been outscored by an average of 39.7 to 12 in those games. Yet, now they're laying a TD (maybe more at some shops) on the road. I don't believe there's a large gap in talent between these teams. Therefore, I feel the line is very generous and I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on CENTRAL FLORIDA. Both teams have had disappointing seasons and both enter this game, the last for each, off a loss. The Knights have been playing much better football though. Stepping down in class and playing at home, I expect them to close out their season with a convincing victory. The Knights' last three games have come against a good Tulsa team and the other two were on the road, including one against a fairly good Southern Miss. team. While they did lose all three of those games, ALL three losses came by a touchdown or less, including a 1 point loss at Southern Miss and a 7-pt loss vs. Tulsa. By comparison, those same two teams (Tulsa and Southern Miss) defeated UTEP by a combined margin of 88-41 AND the Miners got to face them both at UTEP to boot. UTEP is actually still in contention for a 6-win season which would make it bowl eligible. That doesn't mean the Miners want this game any more than the Knights though, as UCF is determined to go out on a high note. Coach O'Leary had this to say: "It's been a very frustrating season. We've lost six games by a total of 31 points. That's one possession or one defensive stop really. I think our players have played really hard, but we have tried to build our program on not making mistakes, no penalties and not beating yourself, and we really haven't gotten that accomplished this season." Remember, O'Leary's team had 11 wins last year and this is the most successful senior class in school history. They DO NOT want to go out on a losing note. Senior tight end Adam Nissley noted: "As a senior it just means going out on the highest note possible. Being able to go out with a win would be the next best thing without being able to go to a bowl." While he's expected to start, UTEP has a banged-up starting QB. The Miners are also without arguably the best player in their secondary, as senior safety TraVaun Nixon, who leads the team in interceptions, injured his knee last week. The Knights are 16-9 ATS the last 25 times that they were favored and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. I expect them to deliver a highly motivated effort, going out on top and ending the Miners' bowl dreams with a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. The Aggies are a talented team and they enter this game off a convincing 61-7 victory. That being the case and with the Longhorns off back to back losses, we're getting a very generous line with the underdog. I feel that big line is providing us with excellent value. Yes, the Aggies are off the big win. However, keep in mind that victory came against a terrible Kansas team, one which Texas also crushed. (The Longhorns beat Kansas 41-0). So, that victory arguably wasn't as impressive as it sounds. Prior to that, the Aggies had been 0-4 ATS their previous four games, losing the previous three outright. They're still an ugly 3-8 ATS on the season. Going back further finds the Aggies are a money-burning 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. The Longhorns have gone 2-1 ATS on the road. They won by 10 their last trip here and they're also 13-6 SU the last 19 times that they were off back to back losses. The Aggies are just 3-8 their last 11 Kyle Field finales, including 1-4 vs. Texas. Five of the Aggies' last nine games have been decided by a touchdown or less. Speaking of close games, last year's meeting was decided by a touchdown, a 24-17 victory for the Aggies. I feel this one could well be close the entire way and am grabbing all the points that I can get. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. This line climbed above a touchdown since it opened and I feel that provides us plenty of value with the underdog. No question, the RedHawks have had a disappointing season. This is still a talented and capable team though. Remember, they went from going 1-11 in 2009 to 10-4 and winning a bowl game in 2010. While this year's team got a new coach, it also returned 17 starters. That means that they've had experience winning and having a 1st-year coach here should also ensure they go all out to close out the season with a victory, building some positives for next year. Also, note that these teams had a big and heavily hyped game at Miami last season. The RedHawks were embarrassed by their "instate rival" in that one - their final loss of the season - and that should provide them with some added motivation here. On the other hand, Ohio has already clinched a spot in the MAC Title game. While the Bobcats would surely like to win big, unlike the RedHawks, they've got a bigger and far more important game on deck. Both teams have shown a tendency to play close games. Ohio won by one point last time out and has now seen six of its last eight games decided by eight or fewer points. Meanwhile, Miami Ohio is off back to back games which were decided by a field goal and has now seen four of its last seven decided by a touchdown or less. I feel this one could well be close too and am grabbing all the points I can get. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I've had plenty of recent success picking my spots to go "on" and "against" Cal. (Most recently, I won with the Bears when they beat up on Utah while winning against them when they got hammered by UCLA.) I feel this will prove to be an excellent "play ON" spot. As you surely know, Stanford lost its first game last week. Playing their biggest game of the season, the Cardinal got hammered by the Oregon Ducks. As they were actually starting to believe that they could run the table, last week's loss figures to be hard to immediately bounce back from. Indeed, many bettors tend to expect highly ranked teams to bounce back huge off their first loss. However, when that first loss comes late in the season, I've often found the opposite to be true. You may recall that I successfully played against the Badgers a few weeks ago, when they were off their first loss. Instead of bouncing back from their loss at Michigan State, as many expected, the Badgers lost again. This week, the Cardinal are not only being asked to bounce back with a victory, they're being asked to bounce back and win by nearly three touchdowns. Against a solid Cal team off back to back double-digit wins, I feel that's asking too much. Note that Stanford is just 1-3 ATS the last four times that it was coming off a conference loss. Off that crushing defeat (and with Notre Dame) on deck, this game surely can't seem that exciting. Note that Stanford coach David Shaw said TE Zach Ertz is unlikely to play against Cal. Also, WR Chris Owusu is out. Remember, Luck had already lost most of his weapons from last year's team. As noted, the Bears are off back to back big wins. They've now held three of their past four opponents to 10 points or less. It should also be noted that the Bears have had this game circled since Stanford destroyed them in front of their home fans last season. Cal did win outright here the previous season though - a 34-28 victory as a +7 point underdog. The Bears are a highly profitable 21-10 ATS the last 31 times that they were +10.5 to +21 point underdogs. A win here would really make their season and I look for them to go all out to try and get it. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. The Wildcats are off a win over a good team and boast an impressive 8-2 record. Yet, I feel the 6-3 Longhorns are favored for good reason. Off last week's loss at Missouri and with a pair of tough road games on deck to close out the season, the Longhorns know that they need to take care of business here. While they did lose last year, note that the Longhorns remain an impressive 16-2 their last 18 home finales. The Longhorns also feel they have a score to settle as the Wildcats embarrassed them 39-14 at Manhattan last year and have beaten them three straight times. With K-State off an emotional 4-Overtime victory, the Longhorns are catching the Wildcats at the right time. While K-State may have the better overall record, the Longhorns have been arguably more impressive at home than the Wildcats have on the road. Texas is outgaining opponents by a 470 to 267 margin at home, outscoring them 34.4 to 16.6 here. On the other hand, K-State is actually being outgained on the road, giving up a whopping 463 yards per road game, averaging 427.5 themselves. While they've really struggled in underdog role, the Longhorns have quietly gone an impressive 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU) the last seven times that they were laying points, including 4-0 ATS the last four. Catching an "emotionally and physically drained" Wildcat team, I expect the Longhorns and their superior defense to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on OHIO STATE. I played on Penn State last week. Even if there hadn't been "the scandal," there's a good chance that I would have backed the Nittany Lions in that one. However, I actually liked the Nittany Lions more after the scandal. For starters, the line went up, at or above a field goal. Playing at home, I felt that was offering excellent value. Secondly, I really felt that the players would rise up and elevate their level of play, showing that Penn State was bigger than the disgusting and tragic events which the school was being associated with. While they fell behind early, the Nittany Lions did indeed come ready to play. They ended up losing by three, either a win or push, depending on when and where one played. That was a home game though - a game where they really left it all on the field. While I felt that the Nittany Lions would be able to channel their emotions for a single game, I now feel that it will be much tougher to do it in back to back weeks, let alone at a hostile venue like Ohio State. Last week, they had the full support of the home fans and were running on emotion. This week, neither will be there to help them. I expect the exhausting events to take a toll. Don't expect the Buckeyes to have any sympathy though. Not when they're coming off a disappointing loss of their own! Ohio State is 4-0 ATS the last four times it was off a conference loss and 16-5 ATS its last 21 home lined games. The Buckeyes won their last game here by double-digits (and upset Wisconsin here before that) and I expect another convincing win this afternoon. *10 Big Easy

Reason: I'm playing on ILLINOIS. I wasn't surprised that the Badgers lost at Michigan State or that they followed it up with a loss at Ohio State. After all, that first loss killed their hopes of an undefeated season. It also hasn't been surprising that the Badgers have responded with back to back big wins. After all, those games came against weak opponents, Purdue and Minnesota. I expect them to have their hands full this afternoon though. While they can't go undefeated, the Badgers are still in the hunt for the Big Ten "Leaders" Division title. They know they're currently a game back of Penn State though and also know that they face those same Nittany Lions next week. Obviously, that's a huge game - and I feel it may be easy to get caught looking past Illinois. That could well prove costly though. The Illini have struggled lately and are admittedly dealing with some adversity. They're without a starting linebacker and their coach is on the "hot seat." As coach Zook noted, however, "When you've got problems, that's when you find out what kind of people you are and what kind of person you are and you've just got to keep on keeping on and work through it..." I expect the Illini to "dig deep" in this one. Note that the teams haven't played for a few years but have a history of playing "close" games. The most recent, at Wisconsin in 2008, was decided by 10 points. The most recent here at Champaign (2007) saw Illinois win by five. Speaking of "close games," the Illini have seen their last two home finales decided by a combined five points. The Illini are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range and that includes a 1-0 ATS mark as a home underdog in the +14.5 to +17 range. Looking to salvage their season and possibly their coach's job, I expect the Illini to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Admittedly, the Tar Heels have been a bit inconsistent. That being the case, many bettors are wary to back them. Combine that with the fact that UNC is off an "ugly" loss while V-Tech is off a convincing win and we're getting a very large line to work with. I believe it will prove to be too high. I didn't play on the Tar Heels in their last game. That was a good thing, as they "failed to show up," losing 12-0 at NC State. That was an "instate rivalry" game though and those can tend to have a different feel to them, particularly that one. The Wolfpack wanted it more and played harder. That was the 5th straight time that NC State has beaten UNC though, as that's arguably the most important game to the Wolfpack's fan base. That doesn't seem to be the case for the Tar Heels. However, it should be noted that they've fared well, after losing to the Wolfpack in previous seasons. Last year, they followed up their loss to NC State by winning on the road, at Duke. The previous season, their loss to NC State came in the final game of the regular season. In 2008, the Heels followed up their loss to the Wolfpack with an 8-point victory, as a -7.5 point favorite. the previous season, after losing at NC State, the Heels covered the spread at Georgia Tech, losing by only two (27-25) as a +9.5 point favorite. In other words, just because the Tar Heels stunk against the Wolfpack, it doesn't necessarily mean that they'll do it again. If anything, losing to their "rival" seems to have a motivating effect. In this case, the Heels have also had plenty of extra preparation time, as that game came by on 11/5. Note that UNC is 7-4 SU the last 11 times it was off a conference loss, including a 2-1 SU/ATS mark in that situation this season. Some of you will recall that we backed this same UNC team the game before NC State and the Heels rewarded us by crushing Wake Forest. Also, note that two of UNC's conference losses came by a touchdown or less. The Heels lost by six vs. Miami and by seven at Georgia Tech. The Hokies are off an 11-point win at Georgia Tech but they're no strangers to playing close conference games either. They beat Miami by three and Duke by four. They're still just 2-5 ATS their last seven. While the Hokies are 0-4 ATS the last four times that they were favored in the -10.5 to -21 range, the Tar Heels are 2-0 ATS the last two times that they were underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. The Heels won outright here last visit, 20-17 when listed as a +14.5 point underdog. I expect another close one tonight. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on BOWLING GREEN. The Bobcats are on a nice roll. However, they're playing on a short week here while also playing back to back road games for the first and only time this season. On the other hand, Bowling Green is well-rested and "desperate." While the Bobcats played on 11/10, the Falcons last played on 11/8. Ohio is still looking to wrap up the MAC East but Bowling Green figures to be even more hungry as they need to win this game AND win their final one (winnable road game at Buffalo) to get to six wins. While they were blown out by one of the best teams in the MAC West (NIU) last time out, the Falcons have beaten Temple and Miami Ohio, two of the better teams in the MAC East. While Bowling Green is only 2-3 at home, last week's loss to NIU was the only home defeat which came by more than a touchdown. The other losses here came by seven points and one point. They're still outscoring opponents by a 26.6 to 24.8 margin here. Despite the sub-500 record, the Falcons have really shown improvement from last year (when they finished just 2-10) and are a much stronger team than the one that was a +8 or +9 point underdog at Ohio last year. Yet, now they're playing a "must win" game, have the schedule in their favor AND are playing their home finale, yet we're getting nearly as many points to work with. While they've dropped two in a row, note that the Falcons are already 2-0 ATS this season, after having lost two or more consecutive games. Ohio is certainly a good MAC team and won't be easy to beat. That said, playing their final home game of the season, I expect the Falcons to go all out, improving on those stats with at least another cover. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on DUKE. I feel that these teams are far more evenly matched than the pointspread indicates. Therefore, I feel that getting "double-digits" with the "dog" is very attractive. I won with Duke in this matchup last season. The pointspread was close to a "pick'em" and Duke won by a score of 55-48. Granted, that game was at Duke and this one is at Virginia. Also, this is an improved Virginia team. However, I feel that the same can be said of Duke. Keep in mind that this is now David Cutcliffe's fourth year with the Blue Devils and that with 14 returning starters, this was considered to be his best team since being here. While Duke has lost four straight, keep in mind that two of those losses (vs V-Tech and Wake Forest) came by four points or less. Both those resulted in pointspread victories and have the Blue Devils at a profitable 5-2 ATS their last seven. The Blue Devils have actually won two of their three road games this season, including a victory at Boston College. They're now 8-5-1 ATS their last 14 in the road. As for the recent losses, note that Duke remains a lucrative 7-4 ATS the past few seasons, when off back to back SU losses. On the other hand, during the same stretch, Virginia is only 1-4 ATS when off back to back SU victories. Note that the Cavs lost 28-14 (to NC State) in their most recent home game. In fact, they're just 2-3 ATS at home this season. Their two home wins against 1-A teams came by only four combined points. Looking at the last meeting here and we find that Virginia was a -7.5 point favorite but that Duke won outright, 28-17. The Blue Devils are 11-4 ATS their last 15 against teams with a winning record. They've had Virginia's number the past couple of seasons and I look for them to give their hosts all they can handle once again. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on AIR FORCE. Just looking at the records of these teams, many might wonder why Air Force is such a big favorite. After all, the Falcons are only 5-4 while Wyoming is 5-3. However, I feel the Falcons are favored for good reason. In fact, I expect them to win this one quite comfortably. Lets take a closer look. As is often the case, records can be deceiving. To its credit, Wyoming did beat an "ok" San Diego State team, one which beat Air Force. That was by far the Cowboys' most impressive victory though. Their other wins came against 1-AA teams Weber State and Texas State University. The other two wins came against Bowling Green and UNLV, both bad teams with losing records. Keep in mind that the Cowboys also lost 63-19 vs. Utah State. Last week, they fought hard vs. TCU but came up short. That loss figures to be tough to bounce back from, as they really "left it all on the field." Granted, the Falcons don't boast many victories over big name or good teams either. They have at least beaten both Navy and Army though. Having also played Boise State tough (11 point loss as +30 point favorite) on the blue turf, the Falcons have shown they can play with anyone. More importantly, for this particular case, they've also demonstrated that they can blow teams out, in the recent 42-0 destruction of New Mexico. The Falcons won by "only" six at Wyoming last season. However, a closer look reveals that they had a 27-12 edge in first downs in that game and had massive statistical edges across the board. They dominated that game, after falling behind early. The Falcons also shutout the Cowboys the last game here. While the Falcons are off a big (won 24-0!) second half, the Cowboys are off a bad (outscored 14-3) one - I feel that'll prove significant here, from a momentum standpoint. The Falcons have won six of seven November games the past couple of seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion, earning the cover along the way. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on PENN STATE. How will the Nittany Lions react to the Paterno scandal/firing? While nobody will know for sure, until the game is actually played. However, my hunch is that they come ready to play. Regardless of how they may feel about Paterno (most still love him but are probably pretty confused) this is a team, school and community that feels the whole world is against them. This is their chance to stand up and show that Penn State is bigger than all that and that they (the players) had nothing to do with any of the alleged atrocities. All that nastiness aside, this is a big football game between a pair of top programs. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 in conference play, coming off a bye, playing at home and have won seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Huskers lost outright (at -17.5 point favorites!) vs. Northwestern, AT Nebraska, last week. (Penn State won by double-digits AT Northwestern!) Yet, the Huskers are favored and because of the scandal, the line has climbed even higher. I feel that's giving us excellent value. With last week's loss, the Huskers are only 3-6 ATS in November the past few seasons. They're also 3-4 ATS, when off a conference loss, during that span. The Nittany Lions are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line ranging between 42.5 and 45. I expect them to band together as a team and to go all out, earning at least another cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. I won with Ohio last week, so I certainly respect the Bobcats. That said, I feel they're over-valued this week. The win over Temple was an emotional one. Facing a "lesser opponent" it may be easy for the Bobcats to suffer a slight "letdown" here. Either way, the win over Temple has caused this line to be a bit higher than it would have been otherwise. Therefore, its worth noting that the Bobcats are a poor 4-6 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. During the same stretch, the Chippewas were 4-2-1 ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. True, the Chippewas have only three wins on the season, go to along with an admittedly very poor pointspread record. That said, their schedule has hardly been favorable. Indeed, seven of their last nine games have come on the road, including three straight. A closer look at the results shows that the Chippewas have actually been extremely competitive, dating back to the beginning of October. On 10/1, they won outright vs. Northern Illinois. (The Huskies won 45-14 Tuesday night, improving to 5-1 in MAC play. The Chippewas are the only MAC team that has beaten them.) Dating back to the win over the Huskies, ALL five of Central Michigan's conference games have been decided by seven or fewer points. The last three have ALL been decided by a total of just eight points. They had scores of 24-21, 23-22 (a win) and 24-21. I won with underdog Ohio the last time that these teams met. That was back in the 2009 Mac Championship game, played at Ford Field. Central Michigan was a -13.5 point favorite in that one but won by "only" 10. I look for the underdog to get the cash as this one again proves closer than many will be expecting. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. With such a high pointspread, its natural to assume that there's a large talent gap between these teams. With all due respect to Toledo, I don't believe that's the case. Rather, I feel that the Broncos are currently very under-valued and feel that they're capable of giving Toledo everything it can handle. The Broncos are off a bye last week, giving them extra prep. Prior to that, they defeated Ball State by double-digits. They've got five wins on the season and obviously really want a sixth. The Broncos may only be 5-4 but they've had to face three BCS schools, all of them on the road. They lost 34-10 at Michigan to start the season. However, a closer look reveals that they actually limited the Wolverines to 288 total yards of offense. So, the 34 points allowed was a little misleading - although that game was shortened due to lightning. In fact, both teams had exactly 17 first downs, the total yardage was 288-279 and the Broncos had a significant edge in time of possession. So, if not for two defensive TDs by Michigan, that game was actually very close. The Broncos other two games vs. BCS schools saw them win outright at Connecticut, where the Huskies are usually tough AND saw them lose by just three at Illinois. So, this is a team which has proven to be capable of playing tough against top tier opponents, even when facing them on the road. Looking at those three road games vs. BCS foes and we find that the Broncos were underdogs of +3, +13.5 and +14 points. Now, facing a team from the MAC, one which is off a heart-braking loss and which is just 5-4 overall, the Broncos find themselves as double-digit underdogs. Considering that they were only +1.5 at Northern Illinois, the team which just defeated Toledo and which is currently on top (tied with Toledo) of the MAC, I feel this much bigger line is providing excellent value. As noted, Toledo is off a "heartbreaker." I had the 'over,' so was thrilled to seem them score so many points. However, scoring 60 and still losing (they gave up 63!) figures to be rather disheartening. The Broncos have had this game circled since last season. That's because Toledo upset them (WMI was -3.5) at Western Michigan last season. Note that Western Michigan had a whopping 416-268 edge in total yards in that game, to go along with a 24-11 advantage in first downs. In other words, that game could have easily had a different result. The last meeting here at Toledo came in 2009. The Rockets were laying -7.5 for that one. Yet, Western Michigan jumped out to a 41-12 first half lead and cruised to a 58-26 victory. In fact, after years of struggling here, Western Michigan has now won two in row at Toledo. I'll gladly grab the generous points but another outright win won't surprise. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. As you know, this is a huge game. And that's putting it lightly. Indeed, considering that the SEC has won six straight National titles, the winner of this game will be favored to win the National Championship. Both teams are very good. Both are very well coached. Both have dominated their opponents. That's led to both also having excellent pointspread records. The Tide have the #1 defense in the country but LSU is right behind them at #3. Many bettors will see all those similarities and determine that the teams are very equal. They'll expect that to translate to a close game and will therefore be quick to grab the points with the underdog Tigers. I've always fared very well in these "huge" games between "evenly matched" teams, partly as I don't worry so much about the pointspread. True, the teams may well be evenly matched (later, you'll see I argue I feel Alabama is a little better on both sides of the ball) but that often doesn't translate to a close game on the field. Also, games here are rarely close. The Tide are 25-1 their last 26 here and 21 of those wins came by at least 13 points, 22 of them by at least nine. While I do think LSU is an excellent team, I personally feel Alabama is better on both sides of the ball. The Tide allow a mere 6.9 points per game and just 180.5 yards. They've hosted teams like Arkansas and Tennessee while visiting venues like Florida and Penn State. Yet, no team has scored more than 14 points against them. They're recorded two shutouts. At home, the Tide are allowing only 5.4 points per game and 166 yards. The LSU defense is also very good (11.5 ppg game allowed) but is allowing 70 more yards (251.4) per game than Alabama. On the road, the Tigers are allowing 15.2 points and 325 yards. Both offenses are averaging about the same number of points. LSU averages 39.2. Alabama averages 39.4. However, the Tide are averaging a much better 457.6 (464.2 at home) yards per game, while the Tigers are averaging 372 yards per game, just 345.7 on the road. The Tide are playing with revenge from a loss at LSU last year and Saban's teams have long been "money" in the revenge role. The Tide won by nine against the Tigers here in 2009 and I look for them to come away with another win and cover here. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on UCLA. Off an embarrassing loss, the Bruins bounced back with a solid win over California last week. That gives them some positive momentum here. Although I'd successfully played against them earlier in the season, I had the Bruins in the game against Cal. At the time, prior to them beating the Bears, I noted that I thought that they were better than we'd seen and that I expected them to show it. After they did just that, apparently Arizona State coach Dennis Erickson agrees. He was quoted as saying: "UCLA has a lot of talent on their football team. They totally dominated that Cal game, which Cal is an awfully good football team. They have a lot of talent. They're good on defense and offense, when they get the ball running." Erickson went on to say: "We're going to have our hands full. Defensively, they run around, they're down four. They've got seven or eight guys that play that have been heavily recruited we tried to recruit some of them ourselves." The Bruins are 4-1 the last five times that they hosted the Sun Devils, including a 23-13 win here in 2009. The Bruins are fighting for a bowl berth here and I look for them to give their guests all they can handle. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. I respect both these teams and feel they're fairly evenly matched. That being said, I feel that getting a field goal or more with the home team is providing us with excellent value. At 6-1, the Bearcats come in with the better overall record. That's worked in our favor, helping us in terms of some added line value. However, a closer look at their schedule reveals that none of the Bearcats' six wins have come against an elite team. The Bearcats did win at USF last time out, perhaps their most impressive victory. However, that win came by only three points and the Bearcats gave up more than 400 yards through the air. Additionally, the Bulls enter the weekend with an 0-3 conference record. So, they haven't exactly lived up to expectations. The Bearcats other five victories have come against Austin Peay, Akron, NC State and Miami Ohio. The first three were at home and the Wolfpack was really banged-up when the Bearcats played them. The loss came at Tennessee and the Bearcats lost that one by 22 points. So, while the 6-1 record may sound impressive, the Bearcats have yet to prove they beat a quality team by more than a field goal on the road. While obviously improved this year, let's not completely forget that this Bearcats team went just 4-8 last season. On the other hand, the Panthers returned numerous starters from the team that went 8-5 last season. They also upgraded their coach. They've only got a 4-3 record but one of the losses came by three points vs. Notre Dame and another came by four points on the road at Iowa, a game which they were dominating most of the way. So, they could easily have a better record. Last time out, the Panthers shook off their first 2-game losing streak of the season by crushing UConn by 15 points. I already mentioned that the Bearcats gave up more than 400 yards through the air in their last game. Now, I'll note that the Panthers put up 433 passing yards in their last. While I already noted that Cincy's 3-point win vs. South Florida was perhaps its most impressive, note that the Panthers hammered those same Bulls by a score of 44-17. The Panthers were slight road favorites (won 28-10) at Cincy last season. Now, an arguably better team is getting points at home. I look for Pitt. to pull off the "upset" here, however, in what could well be a close game, (last game here was 45-44) I'll grab the points. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I successfully played against the Bears last Saturday and they got crushed at UCLA. However, I also successfully played on them in their previous game here (their last here in Northern Cal.) and they blew out Utah. Back "home," in one of their best roles and facing a team which they have dominated, I expect the Bears to bounce back with a double-digit win and cover. Both teams badly need this game if they want to give themselves a chance at a bowl. Some might argue that the Cougars need it more as they're just 3-5 with four games remaining. However, I'd argue that they know they are unlikely to make a bowl and don't really believe deep down that they have much of a shot. On the other hand, with four victories and with this home game vs. Washington State and another home game vs. Oregon State on deck, the Bears know they should be able to reach six victories and believe that they will do so. That said, they also know that they close the season with road games at Stanford and at Arizona State. In other words, they absolutely need to take care of business against the Cougars, the worst team in the conference. Note that the Bears have dominated this series with six straight victories. This year's Bears have a more balanced offense than the Cougars to go along with a superior defense. After winning three of their first four, all wins coming against bad teams, the Cougars have come back down to earth with four straight losses. They're off a double-digit loss at Oregon last week and are now playing their final game outside the state of Washington this season. Their last three losses have come by 15, 23 and 30 points. The Cougars are an awful 1-8 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. During the same stretch, the Bears were 7-1 ATS as home favorites int he -7.5 to -10 range. That includes a 15-point victory over Fresno State in that role this season. I expect the Bears to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon, continuing their dominance in this series and taking another step towards becoming bowl eligible. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. As usual, the Seminoles are a talented team. Also, off three straight double-digit victories, they're really starting to roll. The betting public knows all about these things though and they also know that Boston College has a poor overall record. Naturally, many will be quick to "lay the points" here. As a result, we're getting a very generous line with the home underdog Eagles here. I feel it will prove to be too high. Yes, the Seminoles' three straight blowout victories have been impressive. However, keep in mind that two of them were at home (both against mediocre opponents) and that the lone road game was at Duke. Let's also remember that, before the winning streak, the Seminoles had lost three straight. The Seminoles are still 1-2 on the road for the season and that includes an outright loss at Wake Forest, when they were laying -10 points. Going back further finds them at a mediocre 7-7 SU/ATS their last 14 road games, including an 1-2 SU/ATS mark when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. Perhaps more importantly, note that the Seminoles are still an ugly 4-7 ATS (5-6 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when off two or more consecutive victories. There is no denying that the Eagles have endured a disappointing season. That said, they're off their best performance of the season, a 28-17 outright win at Maryland. They ran the ball for an awesome 372 yards (on 62 carries) in that game and that type of performance should give them plenty of confidence and momentum here. Additional confidence should be gained by the fact that Boston College has really played well against Florida State in recent years. Last season, listed as a +22.5 point underdog, the Eagles lost by only five points (24-19) and that was at Tallahassee. The previous season, playing here at Boston College, the underdog Eagles won outright, a 28-21 upset win. Note that November has been a very good month for the Eagles the past couple of seasons, as they've won six of seven November games. That included a 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) record last November and they were underdogs for two of those games. Despite the poor early results, I feel that the Eagles have a talented defense, better than most probably realize. This is their chance to show the world that they're better than their record indicates. I look for an inspired effort and for that to lead to a pointspread victory. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on OHIO. Huge game for both teams here. Although both teams are 5-3, admittedly, Temple has accomplished some more impressive results than Ohio. The Owls won big at Maryland and they only lost by four at Penn State. Ohio hasn't done anything of that magnitude. However, that's partly as the Bobcats haven't had the same opportunity to do so. Additionally and perhaps more importantly, those "impressive results" came early on in the season for the Owls. Entering this game, its Ohio which is off a much better performance. With Ohio "getting points" here, note that all three of the Bobcats' losses have come by eight or fewer points and that their last two losses came by one and three points. Last time out, however, the Bobcats shook off those losses and finally put it all together. They went on the road and won by 17, at Akron. Granted, Akron is among the worst teams. However, that still doesn't mean that a double-digit blowout victory doesn't help a team's confidence level. Despite playing on the road, the Bobcats outgained the Zips by a whopping 556-249 margin. On the other hand, Temple stumbled last time out. Facing a weak Bowling Green team, the Owls managed less than 300 yards of total offense and were defeated 13-10. Both teams have since had a "bye," having now played since 10/22. I expect the extra time in between games to favor the team off the big win and with the experienced coach (Frank Solich) over the team off a loss and with a coach (Steve Addazio) in his first year with the team. Lets not forget that Solich's Bobcats went into Temple and beat the Bobcats fairly handily. The Bobcats had a 280-146 advantage in second half yards in that game, pulling away for a 31-23 victory. Including that result, Ohio was 5-1 SU/ATS in November the past two seasons. Going back further finds them at 7-1 SU/ATS their last eight November contests, including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four November home games. Going back still further finds them at 14-6 ATS their last 20 home November games. This one could well be close, so I'll gladly grab the points. That said, I look for the Bobcats to improve on their impressive November numbers with an outright win. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on OHIO STATE. With a 6-1 record and a top 15 ranking, the Badgers are a talented and dangerous team. That said, they're also off their first loss of the season. For a team that had dreams of going undefeated and potentially playing for the national title, that can be very tough to bounce back from. That loss was particularly devastating, as the Badgers had battled all the way back from a deficit only to still fall short. Even coach Bielema acknowledged: "This will sting and they will carry this memory with them for the rest of their lives - and it's going to be difficult." At 4-3, its been a disappointing first season for Luke Fickell, as coach of Ohio State. That said, this is still a very proud and talented program. Also, unlike the Badgers - the Buckeyes are coming off a victory in their last game. So, in addition to having homefield advantage, they've also got some positive momentum. Naturally, they'd love to knock off the ranked Badgers, as their season would suddenly start to look a whole lot better, if that were to occur. Fickell had this to say of how last week's victory can help gain some positive momentum: "...this game is a lot more fun when you're winning and this game's a lot more fun when things are going your way a little bit. I know you've got to make those things happen, but that momentum is so huge, that that's what drives you to do this stuff. And those guys maybe haven't had that in a while, so they're excited about it." We know the Badgers defense is better than it showed last week. This is also an improving Ohio State defense though. Last week, they forced three turnovers and limited Illinois to seven points and 285 total yards. Meanwhile, the offense finally saw tailback Dan "Boom" Herron return from his six game suspension. His return paid immediate dividends as he ran for more than 100 yards and scored a touchdown. Lets not forget that Ohio State's lone home loss came vs. Michigan State - the same team that just beat Wisconsin - and that they only lost that one by three points. While most came under Tressel, its still worth noting that the Buckeyes are 15-4 ATS their last 19 here. With the cover at Nebraska, they're also 4-0 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. Catching the Badgers "thinking about what could have been," I expect them to improve on those stats on Saturday evening. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on UCLA. I've successfully played against the Bruins this season. I also won with the Bears last week. This week, however, I feel the "value" lies with the underdog Bruins. One of the main reasons Cal was my "Personal Favorite" last Saturday was that the Bears were in a great spot. They were playing on a "long week," as their previous game had come on a Thursday. They were also catching Utah playing back to back road games and having had to travel across the entire country, on a "regular" week. The Bears jumped all over the Utes and cruised to a 34-10 victory. This week, however, the Bears are playing on a "regular" week while facing an opponent which has had some extra preparation - as this time its UCLA which is off a Thursday game. As you may have seen, UCLA got embarrassed (at Arizona) in that Thursday game, much as Cal had the previous Thursday. While that game did result in several suspensions, I also expect it to be have a motivating effect. They weren't happy with their performance and badly want to improve here. Of course, back to back blowout losses against the Bears the last two years should also provide the Bruins with some added "hunger" here. Most importantly, the Bruins desperately need victories if they want to entertain any thoughts of a bowl game. While the Bears won as the "home" team last week, they've long struggled in road favorite role. In fact, they're an awful 12-31-1 ATS the last 44 times that they were laying points on the road, including a 3-10 ATS mark as road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. More recently, the Bears are 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were laying points on the road, including 1-4 ATS as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. This is a critical game for the Bruins, as they need three wins in their final five games to become bowl eligible. Knowing that two of those games are on the road (Utah and USC) and that another home game comes against a solid Arizona State team, make this essentially a "must win." I expect them to bounce back with their best effort, leading to at least a cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Off back to back losses and with back to back road games on deck, the Tar Heels badly need this one. I expect this talented team to respond with its best effort. The Demon Deacons are solid but far from unbeatable and they tend to struggle against quality opposition. They barely beat Duke (24-23) last week and they were hammered 38-17 the previous week. Earlier in the season, they lost by seven at Syracuse. Their best road win came at Boston College and the Eagles aren't as good as the Tar Heels this year. In fact, they're 0-4 in the ACC and 1-6 overall. While a home win vs. Florida State was impressive, note that the Deacons are an ugly 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they faced a team with a winning record. They're 4-10 SU/ATS their last 14 road lined games overall. After getting dominated their previous game, the Deacons were actually outgained on both the ground and through the air by Duke last week. The Blue Devils also controlled the clock, had a 16-minute edge in time of possession. This will be their first time playing back to back road games this season. The Tar Heels are 3-0 SU the last three times that they were off back to back losses and they figure to be in a nasty mood here. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon, picking up the cover along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on RICE. Its always a bit "scary" to go against a team like Houston. The Cougars have a record setting QB in Kase Keenum, a top 20 ranking and they're among the highest scoring teams in the country. Off back to back blowout victories, few will dare go against them here. That said, I feel that very sentiment has caused this line to become too high. Consider that last week the Cougars opened at -20.5 and closed at -24 vs. Marshall, a team arguably not as talented as Rice. (Marshall did beat Rice but only by four and that game was at Marshall.) That game was actually the highest line that Houston had see too, with the exception of a game vs. 1-AA Georgia State. Now, they're laying a much bigger number. While some may argue otherwise, with the exception of the opening game vs. UCLA, Rice is arguably as capable as any team that Houston has played. Indeed, the Cougars have played a very soft schedule. True, the Owls are off a disappointing loss - but they're still a team which returned 17 starters from last season, one of the most experienced teams in the country. Speaking of last season's team - the Owls actually beat the Cougars last year. Listed as +9.5 point underdogs, they won outright by a score of 34-31, a result which should give them confidence that they can hang with Houston here. (Although Keenum didn't play.) The Owls have played a tougher schedule than the Cougars, as they've faced the likes of Texas, Baylor, Southern Miss, Purdue and Tulsa. They faced the first three of those on the road, too. Yet, this is by far the biggest line that they've had for one of their games. Note that while they have been blown out a few times, they haven't lost any game by more than 25 points. The Cougars failed to cover in their lone Thursday game this season (7-point win vs Utep) and I look for them to receive a tough test than most will be expecting here. *10