Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on NORTHERN ILLINOIS 10* MAC ATTACK. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by seven points or less, Northern Illinois winning all five. While its Toledo which is favored this time round, I'm expecting another close one. With this game being played on the South Side of Chicago, the Rockets will be playing the second of b2b games away from home. They failed to cover the only other time that they were in that situation this season, a non-cover at Eastern Michigan on 10.8. The Huskies got off to a slow start but have turned their season around. The Huskies are averaging 39 ppg their last three games, compared to the Rockets' 35 over their last three. While Toledo is fighting to try and catch Western Michigan, NIU is fighting to stay its bowl hopes alive. I'm grabbing the generous points. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE 10* BEST BET. This is a very big game for both teams. Eastern Michigan badly wants a victory, as one more would make them bowl eligible. Off back-to-back losses, losers of three of their last four and playing their regular season home finale, the Cardinals should also be extremely hungry. I expect them to have the advantage against an Eastern Michigan team which is coming off two consecutive losses of its own. While the Eagles gained 33 yards on the ground last time out, the third time in four games they ran for less than 90 yards, the Cards have run for more than 250 yards on the ground in each of their last three games, 298, 256 and 356. The Cards have owned the Eagles over the years. With an edge on the ground and the venue in their favor, I'm expecting more of the same Tuesday night.

I'm playing on OHIO STATE 10* GOW. While the Buckeyes are off four straight pointspread losses, I expect them to break out with a big win and cover Saturday evening. The Huskers had hoped to come into this game with an undefeated record. However, they lost at Wisconsin (in OT) last week, their first setback of the season. Losing the first game, for a team which had dreams (even if those dreams were unrealistic) of an undefeated season can be difficult to bounce back from. The Buckeyes can attest to that fact. After getting upset at Penn State a couple of games ago, they struggled to "get up" for Northwestern last game, winning by only four. They did win though and now can move forward. I believe they're ready for a break-through performance while the Huskers, playing their second straight road game, may still be thinking about "what could have been." The Buckeyes are more skilled and have more depth. Look for Meyer to have them ready to deliver a blowout. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. Off back-to-back losses, if history is any indication, the Bulldogs figure to be a dangerous team. Indeed, they're 16-5 ATS (19-2 SU) the last 21 times that they were off b2b losses. During the same stretch, they're 12-4 SU/ATS as a road favorite of three or fewer points and 19-6 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range. During that period, Kentucky was an ugly 4-9 ATS as a home underdog of three or fewer points. The Bulldogs dominated Kentucky last season, as they did the year before. I still believe they're the stronger team and I expect them to demonstrate that Sat. evening. 

I'm playing on K-STATE 10* BIG 12 GOM. I won with the Cowboys last Saturday, so am well aware that they're rolling right now. However, I expect that roll to come to an abrupt end on Saturday afternoon. While the Cowboys do indeed have a potent offense, the Cats arguably have one of the best defenses in the country. Despite playing in the high-scoring Big 12, the Cats are allowing a respectable 21.6 ppg and 362.2 ypg. Here at home, where the Cats are a perfect 4-0, they're allowing a mere 16.5 ppg and 300.2 ypg. That compares very favorably to the 27.5 ppg and 488.5 ypg that the Cowboys are allowing on the road this season. While the K-State offense may not be flashy, they still average 41.5 ppg here. While the Cowboys are 4-6-2 ATS on the road the past couple of years, the Cats are 11-6-1 ATS (14-4 SU) at home. The Cowboys won a close one (36-34) at Stillwater last season. However, the Wildcats hammered them when they last played here at Manhattan. In fact, they're 7-1 SU/ATS the last eight meetings here. I'm expecting more of the same here. 

I'm playing on OREGON 10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK. For the first time in two decades, the Ducks have lost five straight. However, I expect this to be the week where they "get healthy" again. While the defense remains a concern, Oregon has found its QB; Justin Herbert threw six TD passes last game, the Ducks scoring 49 points. Sure, it resulted in a tough 52-49 loss, at Cal. The Ducks showed a lot of heart though, rallying from 21-0 and 34-14 deficits. As that was a Friday game, they've had an extra day to recover and prepare for this one. The Sun Devils, who are also "defensively-challenged" and who are also off b2b losses of their own, are banged-up on both sides of the ball, including at the QB position. Starting QB Manny Wilkins has been banged-up a lot and he got hurt again last game. While his status remains uncertain as of this writing, it appears entirely possible that he could miss the game. With their backup QB already out, that means inexperienced true freshman Sterling-Cole would get the call. Regardless of who is behind center for the Sun Devils, it looks like they may also be without their starting center once again. A.J. McCollum missed last week's game due to a persona matter. Regardless, I expect the Sun Devils to have trouble keeping up with Herbert and the rejuvenated Oregon offense. With three of their final four on the road - and the lone remaining home game coming against Stanford - the Ducks know they absolutely need to take advantage of this winnable game. I expect them to do just that, pulling away for a double-digit "blowout" win. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. With a 6-0 record, the Mountaineers and their fans are starting to get pretty excited. I expect them to suffer their first loss this week though. After a slow start, the Cowboys have turned the corner. They've won three straight, starting with an 18-point win over Texas and ending with a 24-point win last week over Kansas. While that may not have been as impressive as WVU's 24-point over TCU, the Cowboys are still a team full of confidence right now, one which is excited at the prospects of handing WVU its first loss. Keep in mind that the Mountaineers have only played one "true" road game (Texas Tech) all season. They're 6-5 SU (5-6 ATS) their last 11 on the road, while the Cowboys are 13-5 SU at home, during the same time. Including an upset loss against the Cowboys (at WVU) last October, the Mountaineers are just 4-7 ATS in October the last 2+ seasons. While the Mountaineers, who weren't ranked to begin the season and who weren't expected to be this good, have been tough on both sides of the ball, the Cowboys can score with the best of them. They're strong on special teams and very well-coached. Grab the points but don't be surprised to see an outright upset. 

I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA 10* ESPN SPECIAL. Admittedly, this season hasn't gone as planned for the Bulls. At one point, they had aspirations of an undefeated season. However, those dreams didn't last long, as they were beaten soundly by Floirda State on 9/24. Note that the Bulls, who lost their second game last week, bounced back from their first loss with arguably their best game of the season, a 45-20 destruction of Cincinnati, when listed as a -7-point favorite. Friday's game offers the Bulls a chance to again bounce back, while avenging a loss at Navy last season. With the game being televised on ESPN2, it also offers them a chance to show the world how good they really are. As per usual, Navy has a strong running attack. The Midshipmen will surely put up some fairly big numbers on the ground. I believe that the Navy defense, which has allowed an average of 32 points and 448 yards its last three games, is vulnerable though. While the Midshipmen are off b2b impressive wins, their last road game resulted in a 14-point loss against Air Force. Note that they're working on a short-week here while USF, which played last Friday, works on a "normal" week. This is "gut check" time for the Bulls, a team with plenty of seniors. I look for them to make things right, bouncing back and improving to 6-2 ATS when listed as favorites. 

I'm playing on WESTERN KENTUCKY 10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK. Old Dominion has been the better team for bettors so far this team. However, Western Kentucky is laying double-digits for good. reason. The Hilltoppers survived a scare at Middle Tennessee, finishing on the right side of a wild 44-43 affair. After having finished on the wrong side of a couple of those earlier (Vanderbilt, LA Tech) that victory was much needed for the Hilltoppers. Now, with some positive momentum behind them, they return home and step down in class to take on an ODU team which they hammered by 25 points (at ODU) last year. Sure, the Monarchs have four victories. In fact, with an undefeated record in conference play, ODU fans are starting to get pretty excited. However, lets keep in mind that all four of those came against weak teams (Hampton, UTSA, Charlotte, UMass) and that three of them came at home. When they stepped up in class to take on the likes of Appalachian State and NC State, the Monarchs lost by scores of 31-7 and 49-22. While the Monarchs are 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were road underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 point range, during the same period, the Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) as home favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in "blowout fashion" Saturday evening. 

I'm playing on TCU 10 TV BEST BET.  I believe we're getting excellent value with the visitors in this one. While the Mountaineers were playing at Texas Tech last week, the Horned Frogs had the week off to prepare. With a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS record their last six after a bye, that's significant. True, the Mountaineers looked very good in beating up on the Red Raiders. They're averaging an impressive 534 yards of offense per game. The Frogs aren't giving anything away in that department though. They're averaging 530 yards of offense, while also averaging better than 40 ppg. (WVU averages 32.8) While the Frogs do have a couple of blemishes on their record, both of those losses came by six or fewer points. Speaking of "close games," the last meeting between these teams here was decided by a single point. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get.

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Off their loss to Clemson, it wasn't completely surprising that the Cardinals didn't dominate Duke. (They still won by double-digits (24-14) though.) Now, a week further removed from the Clemson loss, I expect them to "put it all together" with a more "dominating" victory.  With a 63-20 destruction of Florida State under their belt, the Cards are certainly capable of beating up on the Wolfpack. The Wolfpack, 0-2 on the road are off a hard-fought and emotionally draining OT loss at Clemson and are now playing their second consecutive very difficult road game. In case you didn't see last week's result, the Wolfpack actually had a chance to upset Clemson but missed what would have been the game-winning field goal (only 33 yards) at the end of regulation. I expect that loss to catch up to them here, the Cards keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to a lopsided win.

I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA 10* ANNIHILATOR. Both these teams have been kind to bettors. While they failed to cover last time out, the Bulls are 5-2 ATS. The Owls have fared even better at the betting window. Off six straight covers, they're 6-1 ATS on the season. Neither team has faced a very competitive schedule; both have lost when they stepped up in class. Temple lost against Penn State and Memphis. The Bulls' lone loss (Florida State) was a big one, as it cost them a shot at an undefeated season. They've responded with three straight double-digit wins though and I expect them to keep it rolling with a fourth tonight. The Owls average a respectable 32 ppg, 378 ypg. However, the Bulls' offensive numbers are much better. They average 44.1 ppg (45 on the road) on the strength of 506.4 ypg. The Owls only beat them slightly in the points allowed department, 23 to 25.9. Last year, Temple was favored by three points (at USF) yet the Bulls hammered them by 21 points. This year's Owls' team is arguably not as strong while the Bulls are even better than they were. Temple came into that game with a Top 25 ranking and an 8-1 record. After last year's game, Temple coach Matt Rhule commented: "It was just one of those nights where nothing really went well." With the Bulls at 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) their last five as road favorites, I'm expecting a case of "deja vu" for Rhule and co. tonight.

I'm playing on BOISE STATE 10* THURSDAY “GOM”. The Broncos have a score to settle. You may recall that the Cougars upset them (at BYU) last September. You may recall that one. Boise was up four with less than a minute left. They had BYU on a fourth down but BYU QB Mangum, who hails from Idaho, connected on a hail mary TD pass to Juergens to give the Cougars the lead. Moments later, they'd seal the deal with a 50-yard INT TD. Needless, to say the Broncos haven't forgotten. Even more important than avenging that loss is the chance to stay perfect. The rest of the schedule is manageable. If the Broncos can take care of business tonight, they'll have a legit shot at an undefeated season. The Broncos aren't getting a ton of respect in part because they've been winning without covering. However, I agree with coach Harsin when he noted: "Watch college football. Every single week, it's hard to win every single week. There are no apologies for a 'W.'" Keep in mind that four of six wins have still come by double-digits and that this is still a very capable team, on both sides of the ball. Both teams are on a short week. While its true that BYU has enjoyed one extra day's worth of rest, I'd argue that advantage is negated (and then some) by the fact the the Cougars have played an exhausting schedule, incl. an extra game than the Broncos, which has seen them flying all over the country. They finally get a break afte this game but that won't help them tonight. The Broncos hammered the Cougars 55-30 when the teams met here in 2014, almost exactly two years ago. Including that victory, they're 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they were home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I expect the revenge-minded Broncos to record another double-digit win tonight.

I'm playing on TULSA, 10* TV BEST BET. Given the situation and matchup, I believe this line is generously high. The Cougars had hopes (and expectations) of an undefeated season. Their dreams were shattered by Navy last week though. Off that devastating loss, I don't feel they'll be very "up" for this game. They're going to face a Tulsa team which is playing well, too. The Golden Hurricane are 4-1 overall, the only loss coming at Ohio State. While its true that those four victories have come against fairly week competition, Tulsa still did take care of business and will enter this game with plenty of confidence. Tulsa ran for more than 300 yards (344 + 315) each of its last two games and will face a Houston defense which just allowed Navy to rack up more than 300 on the ground. While they didn't fare too well at Ohio St, the Golden Hurricane are still a healthy 5-1 ATS the last six times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 70 or more. During that stretch, Houston is only 1-3 ATS at home, with an O/U line of 70 or more. Last year's game (at Tulsa) was decided by 14 points and the 2014 game here at Houston was decided by 10, Tulsa easily covering as a 19.5 point underdog. Look for this one to also prove closer than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE 10* PERS FAV. A 9/17 upset win at Notre Dame brought the Spartans to 2-0 and gave fans plenty of reason for optimism. Since then, the Spartans have stumbled, losing all three games. Losing streaks such as this one have been few and far between in the Dantonio era. The team is under 500 for the first time in almost four years and they heard boos when they left the field in Saturday's loss against BYU. Needless to say that doesn't sit too well with Dantonio or his players. I believe they'll silence the critics on Saturday afternoon. The Wildcats, 1-3 ATS off a bye the past couple of seasons, did manage a win at Iowa in their last game, two weeks ago. However, like the Spartans, they're still below .500 - and that includes upset home losses against Western Michigan and Illinois State. Regardless of who ends up behind center, I expect the Spartans to get back to controlling the clock and dominating on the ground and believe the Wildcat D will provide them with that opportunity. Look for the Spartans to bounce back with a much better effort, improving to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 range.

I'm playing on STANFORD. I played against Stanford in last week's blowout loss at Washington. However, I'm coming right back with what I expect to be an angry Cardinal team this week. This line came down from its opener, providing us with excellent value. I believe it easily could have gone the other way. The well-coached and disciplined Cardinal are 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they were off a conference loss. They're already 2-0 SU/ATS here at home, moving to 11-4 ATS (12-3 SU) their last 15 lined home games. The Cougars are undefeated at home but lost their only road game. They lost by 17 when they visited here in 2014. Stanford has been playing some pretty tough defenses in recent weeks. That's made it tough for their banged-up offensive line to open up holes for McCaffrey. The Cougars defense isn't nearly as good though. (Remember that Oregon's Royce Freeman ran for 138 yards and three TDs against them.) So, while still less than 100%, the line should be able to be more effective which in turn should lead to a big game from their superstar back. Look for the Cardinal to bounce back with its best effort, ultimately pulling away for a double-digit win.

I'm playing on OREGON. The Huskies are playing well right now and they came through for me in a big way against Stanford last week. However, off that (admittedly impressive) victory, I believe that they're laying a little too large a number for this week's game at Eugene. While the Ducks are off to a disappointing start and off three straight losses, they've still dominated the Huskies for years. They also haven't lost four straight since the end of the 2006 season. True, the Ducks have some uncertainty at the QB position; Herbert relieved Prukop in last week's loss. Regardless, of which QB is under center, I believe the Ducks can still score though. Royce Freeman, who ran for more than 300 yards in two games against the Huskies, is off a 3-TD performance against the Cougars. Washington's coach Chris Petersen said this of Freeman: "He's as good as there is in the country, without question. He backs it up every week." Counting the Nebraska game as a 'push,' the Ducks are 4-0-1 ATS the last five times that they were getting points. Meanwhile, the Huskies are just 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were listed as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. I'm grabbing all those points. 

I'm playing on LSU. Since joining the SEC in 2012, Missouri has played every team except LSU. I believe they're catching the (LSU) Tigers at the wrong time. As you are likely aware, the big news for LSU is that Les Miles is out, along with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. While Miles certainly had success at times, I believe that this was the right move and I look for it to pay immediate dividends. Miles nearly got fired late last season. That can be difficult on the players (and coach) and they should now be able to move forward. Defensive line coach Ed Orgeron takes over on an interim basis. He's had success in this role before, as he went 6-2 in the interim role when USC fired Lane Kiffin a few years back. I expect the change and a change in offensive philosophy (Orgeron had this to say: "...we're going to spread the ball around a little bit, do some different things, change the style of play. There's a lot of things on offense we've done well running the football. We want to have a different passing game. We want to be more creative, find ways for the quarterback to get the ball down the field throwing it.") to prove to be just what the doctor ordered for a very talented but struggling offense. Going back several years, Orgeron didn't fare too well as the head coach of Ole Miss, from 2005-07. Back then, Missouri beat him twice. A decade later, now armed with the superior team on both sides of the ball, Orgeron gets his revenge, the Tigers kicking off the post-Miles era in blowout fashion.

I'm playing on BOWLING GREEN. Its true that the Falcons haven't exactly been impressive. They're 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the season and they got utterly destroyed last week. Those results have helped to provide us with a much lower line than we normally would have gotten for this matchup; I believe the Falcons are offering excellent value. Lets keep in mind that Bowling Green has had a brutal schedule. The Falcons have played road games at Ohio State and Memphis and one of their two home games came against an explosive Middle Tennessee State team. They were getting more than 50 combined points at the betting window for those three games, so going 0-3 there was not surprising. They did win their lone "winnable" game - albeit barely. Now, however, they get a "fresh start" with the beginning of conference play. Who better than to restore the Falcons' confidence than Eastern Michigan, a team it has absolutely dominated (9-1 SU L10) over the years. Granted, the Eagles are on the upswing and appear to be a little stronger than they've been in recent years though. Thats still not saying much though and they're 3-1 non-conference record needs to be taken with a grain of salt. They deserve a little credit for beating Wyoming. However, that game came at home. The other two victories came against Miss. Valley State and Charlotte. Needless to say, Bowling Green has played much tougher competition. I expect that experience against bigger stronger athletes to pay dividends here. Stepping down in class, look for the Falcons, who are the defending MAC champs, to "get healthy," the Eagles falling to 0-4 ATS their last four as road underdogs of three or fewer points. 

I'm playing on UCONN. The Cougars are obviously a very good team, strong on both sides of the ball. They entered the season with a national ranking, beat Oklahoma in Week 1 and have proceeded to destroy every team since. Impressive indeed. Those results have helped to create a very high line on Thursday night though and I believe that it will prove to be too high. Keep in mind that Houston was also strong last season and that those 2015 Cougars lost to UConn by three points (20-17) as -8 point favorites. Speaking of "close games," the Huskies have seen all four of their games decided by seven or fewer points, three of them by four or less. The UConn defense has been mostly solid, allowing 22.5 ppg. Counting the Lamar game as a 'push,' the Cougars are actually only 6-9-1 ATS at home the past 2+ seasons. They've been very stingy against the run but the Huskies aren't going to deviate from what they do. Look for the visitors to have some success on the ground, helping them to limit the amount of time that the Houston offense is on the field. While we have to go back a number of years, the Huskies are 8-4 ATS their last 12 as road underdogs of greater than 21 points. I expect them to improve on those stats Thursday. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. Washington has a good team this year and looked impressive through its first three games. However, lets keep in mind that all three of those games were at home and that all three were against teams which were weaker than Arizona; the Huskies were laying more than 100 combined points in the three games combined. Now, however, the Huskies play their first conference game and they do so late in the evening at a hostile environment. They'll be facing an improved Arizona team which has been getting better each week and which will be determined to get some payback after getting destroyed by the Huskies last year. 

Washington coach Chris Pederson noted: "...everybody plays a little bit harder and all those type of things. And then you factor in that we're going away, night game, first league game -- I know what the energy will be like in that stadium. That will feel completely different to us."

There's also a huge home game vs. Standford on the deck, followed by a road date at Oregon. So, it might be easy to look past a Wildcat team which they hammered last season. 

The line climbed higher due in part to injuries to Arizona's QB Solomon and RB Wilson. However, replacements Dawkins and Taylor may in fact both be better. Dawkins can run a lot better than Solomon and is full of confidence after a big game vs. Hawaii. Rich Rodriguez noted: "The thing he did well against Hawaii was his decision-making was good. His eyes were in the right spot. He was decisive in all of his actions, and I think that is why he gained some confidence as the game went on."

Meanwhile, Taylor came in and racked up 168 yards on 18 carries. Rodriguez said this of Taylor: "He has probably learned as quickly as any true freshman I have ever had, and I have had some really good ones throughout the years."

The Wildcats, who beat the Huskies by a point when these teams met here in 2014, will be thinking upset. After all, they're 7-5 their last 12 home games against top-10 teams (dating back to 2005) and they've beaten a top-10 team every year that Rodriguez has been here. Look for them to give the Huskies a much tougher test than expected. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Gators beat the Vols by a point (28-27) last year. They also beat them by a single point (10-9) the previous year. In fact, Tennessee hasn't beaten Florida since 2004. The Vols should get some payback on Saturday afternoon though - and by a lot more than a point. Both teams are dealing with some injury issues. Cornerback Cam Sutton and MLB Darrin Kirkland Jr are among the injured for the Vols. Both of those losses are admittedly significant. The Gators' injuries are arguably even bigger though, starting with QB Del Rio. It doesn't help matter that they're also banged up along the line at the offensive guard spots. While they hope to have WR Gallaway available, he may be at less than 100%. The time is right. Look for Butch Jones' veteran team to do something no Tennessee team has done in more than a decade, covering the number along the way.  

I'm playing on LSU. I successfully played against the Tigers in their opening week loss at Lambeau Field. Off that loss, in hindsight, it wasn't all that shocking that they failed to cover the big number against Jacksonville State last week. The Tigers have now had time to "recover" though and I expect them to be at their best on Saturday evening. Its true that the Bulldogs have played LSU tough in recent seasons. However, I believe that the talent gap between the teams is wider this season. Remember, that LSU entered the season with legit aspirations at winning the national championship. This week, the Tigers will be looking to silence the critics and for a big break-out game from the offense. Superior on both sides of the ball, I expect Miles' team to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way en route to a convincing win and cover. *GOM

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Recent meetings between these schools have been close. The Cougars won by three at Houston last season. Laying -7, the Bearcats won by a touchdown here at Cincinnati the previous year. While that game landed right on the number, the Bearcats are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS the last five times that they were a host in the series. They'll come in confident here and I expect them to give their ranked guests all they can handle. The Cougars showed that they're worthy of their ranking by defeating Oklahoma. However, as they know all too well, this is a tough place to play. The Bearcats are 11-2 SU here the past 2+ seasons. The Bearcats have an experienced defense and an offense which just put up 38 points and more than 500 yards at Purdue. Benefitting from a big offensive line the balanced attack had 250 or more yards on both the ground and through the air. Houston coach Tom Hernan said this of the Bearcats: "As good as they were last year, they've improved on both sides of the ball. Their defensive line and their defensive tackles seem to be in a lot better shape. They're moving around better. Their two safeties are really good players that make a ton of tackles for them. They seem to be a little more sound in what they're doing. They're in the right places at the right time on defense. On offense, the quarterback is playing at an extremely high level. He's a really good player behind a massive offensive line. They're running the ball a little bit better than they have in years past. It will be a challenge." I look for Hernan's team to indeed be challenged and won't be surprised if the Bearcats rise to the occasion and score the outright upset. 

I'm playing on OREGON. I see this one turning into a blowout. The hire of Bronco Mendenhall excited Virginia fans. Many assumed the Cavs, who were just 4-8 last year, would qualify in Mendenhall's first year. However, those expectations took a major hit last week. Despite being favored by double-digits, Virginia lost by 17 points against Richmond. It wasn't a fluke either, as the Spiders outgained them by a commanding 524-302 margin. If Richmond, who was previously 2-30 against the Cavs and who hadn't beaten them since the 1940s, put up 500+ yards against the Cavs, you can imagine what Oregon is going to do. The Ducks topped both the 50-point mark and the 500-yard mark in their opener. More of the same Saturday night. 

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. The Red Raiders return Patrick Mahomes and all he did was throw for 4563 yards last season. While the opponent (Stephen Austen) was a lightweight, the Raiders scored 69 points in their opener, piling up more than 600 yards of offense in the air alone. Obviously, ASU represents a major step up in class. Still, the Tech offense figures to come in full of confidence and lets not forget that the Sun Devils were the nation's worst team against the pass (337.8 ypg) last season. We may not be able to count on much improvement this season either, as lowly Northern Arizona threw for 369 yards against the Sun Devils last week, despite being a 4-TD underdog. While the ASU passing attack managed a mere 180 yards, Lumberjack receiver Elijah Marks had 178 receiving yards himself. While the Sun Devils eventually pulled away, they were being outgained by what was supposed to be a very weak opponent by a 212-169 margin at halftime. While we have to go back a number of years, the Raiders are 11-4 ATS their last 15 as road underdogs. Ten of those 11 covers resulted in outright wins. While I'll gladly grab the points, with Mahomes carving up the suspect ASU secondary, I'm expecting another outright win here. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. I like the Longhorns' chances of scoring the upset tonight. Always talented, this year's Longhorns are out to show that Texas is still a better team/school than the one which took the field in 2014 and 2015. Needless to say, a nationally televised Sunday Night "stand-alone" game against a ranked and high profile Irish team provides the perfect opportunity. Of course, the Longhorns also feel that they've got a "score to settle" as the Irish hammered them (at ND) on this very weekend, last September. With tonight's rematch being played in Austin, on a warm night with 10's of thousands of screaming fans wearning orange, I expect an entirely different result. The Irish are indeed a good team, worthy of their preseason ranking. They've lost a little from last year though while the Longhorns - and their new look offense - should be considerably stronger. Look for Longhorns to come to play tonight, giving the Irish all they can handle the entire way. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. This is the beginning of a "new era" for the Bulldogs and I expect them to usher it in with a big win. The Tar Heels, who scored over 40 ppg last season, are no slouches. They've got some questions along the defensive line though and last year's team struggled against the run. That's a problem when facing Nick Chubb, who is not expected to be limited and who has reportedly made a full recovery. While the Tar Heels are likely going to put up some points, I look for the Bulldogs to ultimately wear them down, en route to a win and cover. 

Condition: Georgia at -6 or better. No play if line climbs above -6. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. This game has an O/U line in the 40s. With points likely to be at a bit of a premium, I believe that asking LSU to cover such a large number on the road (while technically a neutral field, the game is being played at Lambeau Field) is asking a lot. With a Heisman candidate at running back, plenty of experience and NFL calibre talent throughout the roster, the Tigers are indeed a very good team. I believe that the Badgers are going to be a lot more competitive than many will be expecting. While the Tigers may have plucked away the Badgers' defensive coordinator (Aranda) the Badgers are still the team which ranked #1 in scoring defense last season, second in total defense. Needless to say, the Badgers D will be extremely motivated for this big TV game, a chance to show their old defensive coach that they are capable of taking on mighty LSU. While Wisconsin's new QB (Houston) may lack game experience, he's a 5th year senior with decent mobility and a good arm. He came off the bench in a game (Illinois) last year and was 22 of 32 with two TDs. Look for the Badgers to give their highly ranked guests all they can handle. 

Conditon: Badgers at +10 or better. No play if line dips below +10.

I am playing on CLEMSON. Sharp action offshore has been hammering Clemson leading up to this game - even though the public is largely on Bama - and I have to agree with the wiseguy money here.

Clemson is once again being largely underestimated as the No. 1 ranked team in the nation, just like the Tigers were in the national semifinals when they clobbered Oklahoma 37-17 as 3.5-point underdogs. I feel this is simply way too many points to be giving such a talented and explosive team like Clemson, which is the 11th-ranked offense in the nation in yards per game.

I feel the Tigers will be able to adjust no matter what looks Bama throws at them on defense with a balanced attack that averages close to 300 yards passing and over 200 yards rushing per game. It's no wonder Clemson won the yardage battle in every game it played this season - especially when you consider the team owns the 6th-ranked defense in the land in yards against.

Throw any team you like up against Clemson, this is just way too many points to be giving them and this number represents a lack of respect from the general public. And if you like trends - consider that Clemson rides a streak of four straight covers in bowl games into this game and the Tigers are also 6-0  ATS in their last six neutral site games. 10* 

I'm playing on TCU in the Alamo Bowl.

I released this selection prior to the news about Boykin, the Frogs' starting QB who is suspended. Unfortunately, I'm locked in with the Frogs at a pick 'em price, one of the drawbacks of releasing plays early. Needless to say, I would have preferred the adjusted (post-suspension) line, which I feel is offering excellent value. I'm not writing off the Frogs chances of winning outright though. We just saw Baylor overcome some key losses. Many wrote off the Bears but they rallied together and overcame the adversity. Likewise with Clemson. The Tigers seemingly weren't affected by suspensions, as they hammered Oklahoma. Speaking of Oklahoma, the Frogs very nearly defeated the Sooners (30-29 loss) in a game they played without Boykin. Admittedly, the Boykin loss is indeed a big deal. However, as noted, the Frogs have shown that they can compete against top tier opponents without him. They'll be up against a porous Oregon defense which allows 36.7 ppg and more than 480 ypg. That defense may have a slight emotional letdown now that they know they won't be facing TCU's #1 QB. Gary Patterson has been outstanding when given extra time to prepare. Don't be surprised when the Frogs find a way to win.

10* Main Event

I’m playing on OKLAHOMA STATE in the Sugar Bowl.

The Rebels come in as the hotter team. They won their final two games while the Cowboys lost their last two. Those results have helped to provide us with some additional line value, as the Cowboys are considerable underdogs. I like their chances partly due to an ability to play well away from home. Indeed, this team was a perfect 5-0 on the road this season, winning at Texas, West Virginia and Texas Tech. While OK. State outscored teams by more than eight points per game, when on the road, Ole Miss was outscored by an average score of 31.6 to 28.4, when playing away from home. The Rebels, who were destroyed by a Big 12 team in last year’s bowl, will play without defensive star Nkemdiche. He’s a dynamic player and I expect his absence to prove significant. The Cowboys have shown an ability to come back (erase deficits) and also to win close games. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GOW

I'm playing on IOWA in the Rose Bowl.

The Hawkeyes don't get much respect from the betting public and come in as considerable underdogs. I believe they're better than many realize though. Keep in mind that this is a team which lost only once all season - and that loss was by a field goal. Remember, this is a team which has road wins at venues like Nebraska, Northwestern and Wisconsin. (Iowa was the only team to win at NW and one of only two teams to win at Wisconsin.) While wins at NW and Wisconsin might not sound like much, Stanford can respect how difficult winning at NW actually was this season. The Cardinal lost 16-6 when they played there. That was one of five games that Stanford played which were decided by 10 or fewer points; three of Stanford's final six games were decided by exactly two points. Iowa saw four of its final five decided by eight or less and was involved in seven games which were decided by 10 or less. Another close one won't surprise.

10*

I'm playing on FLORIDA in the Citrus Bowl.

This has been a comeback year of sorts for both programs. Each has fallen from its former glory in recent years. Each is now back playing a New Year's Day Bowl game. That said, motivation doesn't figure to be a problem for either side. Many seem to feel Michigan has a superior offense, the reason the Wolverines are favored. I'm not so sure that's true though. Yes, the Gators offense really struggled down the stretch. This is still a team which scored 27 or more points six times, four times vs. SEC opponents. They've had plenty of time to work on fixing the offense. On the other side of the ball, the Gators are as good as it gets; they held six opponents to 14 or fewer points. I believe that they're better than the Michigan defense, which lost a pair of key defensive linemen (Ojemudia and Glasgow) in late November, currently is. With an O/U line currently below the 40-mark, points are expected to be at a premium. I'm grabbing all I can get with the hungry and dangerous underdog.

10* WINNER

I'm playing on OHIO STATE in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Irish bring a much better ATS record to the table. However, I believe the Buckeyes are the superior team. Off a 42-13 thrashing of Michigan, the Buckeyes are full of confidence. If you've followed my plays over the years, you'll know that I've successfully played against the Irish several times in January Bowl games this millennium. (They've played five January bowl games since 2001 and each has resulted in a double-digit loss.) Speaking of history, 13 of the last 16 Fiesta Bowls (incl. 5 of the L6) have been decided by at least seven points. I expect history to repeat itself, the Irish and their fans enduring another double-digit setback.

10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE in the Cotton Bowl Classic.

The perception is that the Spartans are lucky to be here. That may be partly true - as the blocked punt play against Michigan was certainly pretty fortunate. The fact is that they were right there with Ohio State before that play though. This is a team that hasn't been blown out by anyone; the Spartans' lone loss came by a single point. As per usual, Alabama represents a formidable challenge. The Tide aren't unbeatable though, as evidenced by their loss vs. Ole Miss. Tennessee was another team which played the Tide close, losing by just five. The Spartans have won 18 of their last 20 against teams with a winning record and they're 6-1-1 ATS their last eight when getting points. I like their ability to "scratch and claw" their way to victory and I look for them to give the Tide all they can handle.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on CLEMSON in the Orange Bowl.

There will be a lot of talk about the three Clemson players who are suspended for this game and that will be one of the reasons many will favor Oklahoma. Only one player (Cain) was relevant though, as the other two didn't play. And, although Cain was the second leading receiver, he's being replaced by a senior (Peake) who had almost identical numbers as Cain. While some might see the suspensions as a distraction, I believe that they'll help bring the team even closer together. The Tigers are 29-14-1 ATS their last 44 as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. Behind a big game from star Deshaun Watson, I expect at least another cover on New Year's Eve.

*10 GAME OF THE MONTH

I'm playing on USC in the Holiday Bowl.

The Trojans limp into tonight's bowl game, having lost two of their final three and with a 1-4 ATS mark their past five. This is a talented team, however, one which has been battle-tested against the best of the west. The Trojans have also been excellent when coming off a loss. A 40-21 victory over rival UCLA on 11/28 brought them to 8-1 SU/ATS the last nine times they were coming off a loss. Unlike USC, the Badgers have played an extremely soft schedule. They did face Alabama. However, that was way back in the first week of September and they lost by 18, as 12-point dogs. Since then, the best team they faced was Iowa. Playing at home, the Badgers only managed six points in that one, a 10-6 loss. They avoided Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. The next best team they faced, arguably, was Northwestern. The Badgers lost that one too. I look for USC to be too much for them.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on LSU in the Texas Bowl.

Regardless of whether this is Les Miles final game with LSU, I expect the Tigers to close their season with a one-sided victory. The Red Raiders have serious trouble stopping the run, ranking an awful 126th in the country. Meanwhile, the Tigers bring a back to the table (Fournette) who averaged more rushing yards per game than any other player in the country. I expect that to spell trouble for the underdog. Look for Fournette to go off as the motivated Tigers win in decisive fashion.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on BAYLOR in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

These teams can both light up the scoreboard. UNC comes in averaging an impressive 40.9 ppg. Baylor boasts an even better 48 ppg. The difference is much greater when you look at their points away from home though. When playing on the road, the Tar Heels average 31.5 ppg. The Bears, on the other hand, average 47 ppg (600.7 ypg!) on the road, showing an ability to put up a big number, regardless of venue. Of course, Baylor's offense has taken a hit due to injuries at key positions. That has most expecting a win for the Heels. I believe the Briles and the Bears have had time to adapt and look for them to surprise.

10* best bet

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA in the Armed Forces Bowl.

I won with the Falcons in their final regular season game, a cover at San Diego State, a game they lost by three points. So, I'm aware that they've fared well in the underdog role. I feel that Air Force will have trouble keeping up with a superior opponent on Tuesday afternoon though. The same San Diego State team that defeated the Falcons was destroyed (35-7) by Cal, the only Mountain West team that the Bears faced. The Bears are battle-tested, having faced the best of the west. They're stepping down in class and I'm expecting a double-digit win.

10* Annihilator

I am playing on MINNESOTA (vs Central Michigan) as my *10 CFB Blowout *Game of the Week* on Monday, December 28th @ 5 PM ET

Minnesota, like Nebraska, is a 5-7 bowl team. The Golden Gophers, like the Cornhuskers, are likely to get a big bowl win. The key here is strength of schedule. Minnesota played a very tough schedule whereas Central Michigan, played a much weaker schedule and yet only ended up with a slightly better record (7-5) in comparison with the Golden Gophers. The Chippewas struggle to run the ball on offense and that will allow the Minnesota defense to focus on shutting down QB Cooper Rush and the passing attack of the Chips. Central Michigan also had a new head coach coming into this year and he came over from the NFL and this is his first time in the college ranks again since the late nineties. Compare that to the continuity of a Minnesota coaching staff (minus coach Kill of course) that has been to five bowl games together. This is a big edge for the Golden Gophers who now have named coach Clayes as the full time coach. Minnesota already beat two MAC teams in the regular season and they make it three straight here by dominating an outclassed Central Michigan team. The Chippewas are on a 3-5 ATS run when they enter a game on a winning streak of two games or more. Minnesota's regular season ended with a loss to Wisconsin and the Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS this season when off of a loss to a conference rival. Look for that ATS record to improve to 6-0 with a big win in the Quick Lane Bowl Monday.

I am playing on PITTSBURGH (vs Navy) as my *10 MILITARY BOWL *ROUT* on Monday, December 28th @ 2:30 PM ET

Revenge game for Pittsburgh as these teams met in 2013 and Navy came away with a 3-point victory. The Panthers had a tough late season schedule and dropped 3 of their last 5 games but Pitt did start the season 6-1 and are fully capable of dominating like they did earlier in the season. The Panthers were very strong on defense this season and that is critical to shutting down the option attack of Navy. The Panthers do match up well against the offense of Midshipmen and that takes away Navy's biggest advantage over opponents...that is, those that are ill prepared or simply not capable of stopping the option attack. Pitt has had plenty of time to prepare for this game and the Panthers defense is their strength. Navy's regular season (before the Army game) ended in disappointment as Houston defeated them handily and that took away their shot at playing for the AAC title. The Midshipmen followed up the disappointing loss to the Cougars with a lackluster effort against Army and are truly stumbling into this bowl game. Pittsburgh already faced the option earlier this season (against Georgia Tech) and the Panthers defense gained valuable experience in that game and Pitt's D has come a long way since then. Pittsburgh also traveled well this season as they went 5-1 ATS in road games. Navy is 14-21 ATS in games against the ACC and, the Midshipmen are outclassed again Monday in the Military Bowl.

I am playing on UCLA (vs Nebraska) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday, December 26th @ 9:15 PM ET - The Bruins won each of the last two regular season meetings between these teams. Head coach Mora (UCLA) last faced head coach Riley (Nebraska) back in 2012 and Riley's Oregon State team knocked off the Bruins. That makes this a revenge game as far as Mora is concerned as it's the first time these coaches have met since then. The Bruins are going for a 3rd straight win in bowl action while Nebraska has lost four of their last five bowls. The Cornhuskers only went 5-7 this season and, in that regard, are fortunate to even be in a bowl game. Though the Huskers made some headlines this season with their upset of Michigan State and the fact they outgained Iowa by nearly 200 yards, those two big games came at home for Nebraska. Now the Cornhuskers are in a venue (Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA) that clearly favors the Bruins. That, in addition to the fact that UCLA is a solid 8-4 team and that Mora seeks revenge against Riley all combines to make this a great spot for a big Bruins win. UCLA played the much tougher schedule in comparison with Nebraska. The Bruins have a significantly stronger pass defense in comparison with the Cornhuskers. UCLA is on a 7-3 ATS run as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points and the Bruins are on a 4-0 ATS run when entering a game with two or more weeks of rest.

I am playing on SOUTHERN MISS (vs Washington) as my *10 CFB *Game of the Week* on Saturday, December 26th @ 2:20 PM ET - A lot of value here with Southern Miss considering that the Golden Eagles went 9-4 straight up this season and also 10-3 ATS. Washington only went 6-6 on the year. The Huskies did face a tougher schedule but the Washington offense is truly a liability in this match-up. The Golden Eagles average over 500 yards and 40 points per game. The Huskies averaged less than 400 yards and 30 points per game. The value in the Heart of Dallas Bowl is with Southern Miss and the big points. The Huskies improved this season but they are still a young team that could struggle in a bowl setting. Last year was head coach Petersen's first bowl as the Huskies coach and all the success at Boise State did not translate over immediately as Washington lost 30-22 in the Cactus Bowl last year. With only 9 returning starters this season, the youth of this team will be an issue in this year's bowl. Southern Miss went a perfect 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Golden Eagles averaged 52 points per game in their last four games this season. The Huskies were held to 23 points or less in two of their last four games this season. Look for Southern Mississippi's potent offense to keep them in this game all the way through. 

I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (vs Cincinnati) as my *10 BEST BET on Thursday, December 24th @ 8 PM ET - QB Gunner Kiel is out for Cincinnati and QB Maxwell Smith is out for San Diego State. The key difference of how these teams are impacted by the injury situation at QB is that the Bearcats rely heavily on their passing attack while the Aztecs rely much less on the pass and much more on their ground game. The potent San Diego State rushing attack is led by RB Donnel Pumphrey who is the Offensive Player of the Year for the Mountain West Conference. The Bearcats allow nearly 200 rushing yards per game and an average of 5 yards per carry and I expect the weak Cincy run defense to be exploited by San Diego State in this game. The Aztecs have the much better defense in this match-up as they allowed just 17 points per game this season while Cincinnati was rolled for 30 points per game. Off the loss in last year's bowl game against Air Force, San Diego State wants to make the most of the opportunity this season and I look for them to roll to the solid victory here as a power ground game and the better defense is the perfect combo to back a team especially when they are in this fantastic price range!

I am playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN (vs Middle Tennessee State) as my *10 ANNIHILATOR on Thursday, December 24th @ Noon ET - The Broncos, coming from the Mid-American Conference, played a tougher schedule than did Middle Tennessee State, coming from the SunBelt Conference. Western Michigan got a big upset win on the road at Toledo in their regular season finale. Knocking off a solid team like the Rockets on the road gives the Broncos a huge boost of confidence heading into the season finale. The Blue Raiders come into this game on a strong season-ending run but faced some ultra weak competition to wrap up the regular season with games against the likes of Florida Atlantic, North Texas, and UT-San Antonio. That could leave the Middle Tennessee State ill-prepared for the challenges they will face with a solid MAC team Thursday. Western Michigan is 8-4 ATS when off of a win against a conference rival while MTSU is 6-9 ATS when off of a win over a conference foe. Also, the Blue Raiders are 2-4 ATS when off of a bye week and 2-5 ATS as an underdog when the line is set in a range of +3.5 to +10 points. Western Michigan averages nearly 500 yards of offense per game and has the better rushing attack in this match-up. Look for that to be the difference as the Broncos grind out the bowl win in the Bahamas.

I am playing on UTAH STATE (vs Akron) as my *10 ANNIHILATOR on Tuesday, December 22nd @ 3:30 ET - Certainly the location of this game (in Idaho) favors the Aggies. Utah State surprisingly did lose 6 games this season and, sitting at 6-6, the Aggies are hungry for a win here to make sure they have a winning season. The Zips are coached by Bowden and, with Auburn, he went to 3 bowls and compiled an 0-3 ATS record. Akron is a sizable dog here and they should be. Utah State played the much tougher schedule. Though both defenses look strong, the Aggies performance on that side of the ball is much more impressive as they have faced the tougher opposition. Utah State is coached by Wells and he's got a 2-0 ATS mark in bowls heading into the Idaho Potato Bowl. The Aggies might have had a better regular season were it not for QB Chuckie Keeton having some injury issues. With getting in some important late season action and now having extra time to rest prior to this game, look for Keeton to be back in top form and that will help key what should be a blowout win for Utah State. The Aggies will be focused on shutting down an offense that is one of the weakest in the MAC. Wells two bowl appearances saw his teams allow an average of just 10 points per game and I expect another dominating effort from his Aggies defense on Tuesday afternoon. 

I am playing on UTAH (vs BYU) as my *10 Opening Day Personal Favorite on Saturday, December 19th @ 3:30 PM ET - The fact that Utah RB Devontae Booker is out is keeping this line lower than it should be. The Utes will still be able to get solid running considering the depth they have at that position. On the other side of the ball is the key as Utah's solid defense will lead the way. Though both teams in this match-up have a solid defense, the Utes hold the edge with their run defense. Utah also has a big edge at special teams where they have been particular strong in both ends of the punting game as well as the field goal unit. Strong legs for Utah's kicking game and the Utes have perhaps the top overall special teams units in the nation. Another key here is that BYU's strength of schedule is nowhere close to the strong schedule that Utah faced this season. This factor, along with BYU's 8-5 ATS record compared to Utah's 5-7 ATS record this season, is helping to provide exceptional line value on a Utes team that is laying just a couple points in this match-up. Of course there has been extra time off leading into this bowl match-up and Brigham Young is 0-7 ATS after a bye week. Utah is on a 9-1 ATS run in non-conference games. The Utes are 30-13 ATS when playing with two or more weeks of rest. 

I am playing on ARMY (vs Navy) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday @ 3 PM ET - Big points here. Of course it goes without saying that Navy is the better team by far but these teams are very familiar with each other and often run similar offenses. That helps close the gap between the teams even though the Midshipmen are definitely superior. This is a big reason that the Black Knights have covered 4 of the last 6 meetings. Also, looking closely at the lost four years worth of meetings, Army has been in the game with a chance to win it in the fourth quarter in three of the past four years. The Midshipmen have had trouble putting away the Black Knights in recent meetings and that should be the case again Saturday. Navy is 2-4 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. Army is 17-9 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. The Black Knights have covered 3 of their last four games played on a neutral field. Army is only allowing 28.5 points per game on the season and yet here they are an underdog of more than 3 TDs against a Navy team that has struggled to create much separation from them in recent meetings. Look for the Black Knights to stay well within this inflated number. 

I am playing on IOWA (vs Michigan State) as my *10 CFB Game of the Week @ 8:15 ET Saturday - Of course this battle is for more than just the Big Ten Championship as the winner will undoubtedly be in line for one of the 'final four' playoff spots. I am backing the undefeated Hawkeyes who come into this one as an underdog despite having a fantastic season with an unblemished record. Iowa has covered 9 of the last 12 meetings between these teams and there have been 5 outright upsets by the dog in the last 12 match-ups. Both teams have stellar defenses but Iowa's offense has shown a little more this season and also gets a boost with the return of RB Canzeri who is back healthy and has run for nearly 1,000 yards plus 12 TD's this season. Iowa was held to 28 points in their win over Nebraska last week but had previously scored at least 40 points in 4 of their last 8 games. The Spartans scored 55 points in their blowout win over Penn State last week but, prior to that, Michigan State had only scored more than 38 points once this entire season. Look for Iowa's powerful ground game to be the difference maker on offense in this one. The Hawkeyes ground game has averaged 70+ more yards per game when you compare what Iowa and Michigan State have each done over their last 7 games. Look for the Hawkeyes to pound out one more win. The Spartans are 3-7 ATS as a favorite this season. Iowa is 7-3 ATS as a dog the last 3 seasons.

I am playing on AIR FORCE (vs San Diego State) as my *10 Best Bet on Saturday @ 7:30 PM ET - The Aztecs have lost (and failed to cover) both times they hosted a non-regular season game at home in Qualcomm Stadium. The most recent time was in the 2014 Poinsettia Bowl when San Diego State faced Navy (coincidentally also a triple option team like Air Force) and the Aztecs lost 17 to 16. San Diego State does have a solid defense but their passing attack has not been overly impressive under QB Smith. It will be difficult for the Aztecs to build up a margin here if they have to rely too heavily on Pumphrey and the running game. The Falcons were 6-1 in Mountain West action this season before they seemingly overlooked New Mexico last week and ended up losing by a dozen points. Look for that loss to have Air Force a little extra aggressive with this big opportunity now on the table in the Mountain West Championship Game Saturday. The Falcons are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season. San Diego State has been held to 144 yards or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Air Force, well known for their powerful ground attack, has also been getting the job done through the air in recent weeks with a 239 passing yards per week the past three weeks. The Falcons were hurt by turnovers last week at New Mexico and that has impacted the line set on this game. Air Force is simply getting too many points in this match-up and San Diego State once again struggles with a triple option team.

I am playing on FLORIDA (vs Alabama) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday @ 4 ET - Looks like another case of a very strong football team simply being given way too many points. While Alabama certainly is deserving of plenty of respect, laying this many points against a Gators team that has only given up more than 14 points in 4 of their 12 games this season certainly seems to be a little much. Florida can play 'some D' to say the least! The Gators have one of the top defenses in the nation and Florida now faces an Alabama team that also has a stellar defense but whose offense is perhaps not as powerful as what the betting markets are suggesting here. The Crimson Tide offense has been held to 31 points or less in each of their last 6 SEC games and none of those contests was against a defense as strong as the Gators defense. Though Florida's defensive line is a little 'beat up' heading into this game it is still a formidable defensive unit that is going to challenge the Crimson Tide offense. Alabama has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games played in domes. The Gators are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on a neutral field. Big points here...big points worth the taking. Florida's 25 points loss to FSU last week saw them outgained by only 42 yards in the game so the 'deceiving final score' is helping to offer line value here.

I am playing on CALIFORNIA (vs Arizona State) as THE *10 CFB *GAME OF THE YEAR* on Saturday @ 10 PM ET - Cal is off of a loss at Stanford while Arizona State is off of a huge win over rival Arizona. That sets this up very nicely for a play on the Golden Bears. Cal is 4-1 in home games this season and the four victories have come by an average margin of 31 points per game. The Bears are catching ASU off of a 2nd straight win but the Sun Devils had previously lost three straight games. Arizona State has lost their last two road games by an average margin of 15 points per game and the Bears have been winning big at home all season long. We're getting some line value here because of Cal being off of the loss to Stanford. A key variable there was that the Golden Bears allowed a KR for a TD and Cal settled for three field goals in the red zone. California did outgain the Cardinal by 139 yards and they will pound ASU after the Sun Devils big win last week also made them bowl eligible. This is a definite flat spot for Arizona State and they have gone 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an away dog. In looking at these two teams closely, Cal has the better defense and the Bears are off of a superb defensive effort against Stanford last week. The Golden Bears also definitely have the better offense in this match-up. The Sun Devils have averaged just 21 points in their last two road games. Cal is averaging 43.4 points per game in home games this season. This one should be ALL CAL.

I am playing on FRESNO STATE (vs Colorado State) as my *10 Shocker *Game of the Week* Saturday @ 9 PM ET - It's been a tough year for Fresno State but I expect them to bring a strong effort in their final home game of the year. They are hosting a Rams team that is off of a win in their home finale last week and that made CSU bowl eligible. Off of that big home win and now facing a hungry home dog, the value here looks to be with the Bulldogs. Fresno State won 28-7 in the last meeting between these teams. The Bulldogs also have won three straight home finales are on an 8-1 run in home finales. Fresno State got pounded last week at BYU but a lot of that had to do with being off of a big win on the long road trip to Hawaii the prior week. The Bulldogs got 6 TDs in that game but QB Greenlee then struggled last week. Look for Greenlee and Fresno State to bounce right back here. Colorado State is 6-15 ATS in road games with a total between 56.5 and 63 points. Fresno State is 5-2 ATS as a home dog in a range of 7.5 to 10 points and they are the play here as the points are too much for the Rams to be laying on the road especially when you consider the situational and motivational edges here. 

I am playing on USC (vs UCLA) as my *10 CFB Blue Marlin on Saturday @ 3:30 PM ET - UCLA has won and covered in each of the last three meetings between these teams. The Bruins had amassed a double digit lead by halftime in two of those meetings. Needless to say, USC has revenge on their minds here. The winner of this game will clinch the PAC-12 South Division. The Trojans are off of a blowout loss to Oregon last week but was the first time since week 3 of the season that USC was outgained! Also, the Trojans committed 12 penalties for 124 yards. It was an ugly game all the way around and I look for USC to respond in a big way in their rivalry game this week. UCLA is off of a win versus Utah but they were quite fortunate. The Utes, despite scoring only 9 points in the game, did move the ball quite well. Utah had 5 drives of 10 more plays but three resulted in field goals and two were ended on turnovers. This is a back to back road game situation for UCLA and that is a spot in which the Bruins are on a 1-6 ATS run. The Trojans are 17-10 ATS as a home favorite. Factor in the revenge factor and the scheduling edge and the situational edges and you have all the variables working in favor of a blowout home win for the Trojans in this one. 

I am playing on BOISE STATE (@ San Jose State) as my *10 Personal Favorite Friday @ 3:30 ET - Boise State certainly has history on their side in this match-up as the Broncos are 5-0 all-time against San Jose State. Boise State is certainly expected to be fired up here as they have lost back to back home games entering this match-up. This is the first time this has happened to the Broncos in 18 years and I look for Boise State to take out their frustration on a Spartans team that is just 5-6 on the season. San Jose State is off of a win at Hawaii last week so this is certainly a big situational edge for the Broncos. The Spartans are not only off the long trip to Hawaii, they also are on a short week since this game is on a Friday. Look for Boise State to do plenty of damage against San Jose State on the ground in this one. The Spartans have allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to gain at least 200 yards on the ground. Boise State has the rest edge here as they are off of a Friday game and the Broncos have gone 8-3 ATS when off of a Friday game and they are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 as an away favorite. San Jose State is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Big situational edges for the Broncos and yet the spread is quite reasonable. Lay the points with Boise State in what should be a rout.

I am playing on TEXAS (vs Texas Tech) as my Turkey Day ESPN *ROAST* on Thursday @ 7:30 ET - Texas has dominated this rivalry and I look for more of the same this year. The Longhorns have won 14 of the last 16 meetings between the teams and they've gotten the ATS cover in 11 of those. Of course with the low point spread on this year's game, any victory is likely to lead to the ATS cover as well and that is what I am fully expecting here. The key here is the difference in the defenses. Even though the Longhorns are off of a loss to West Virginia in their most recent game, UT actually outgained the Mountaineers by 60 yards but four turnovers were the difference maker. The Horns are still hanging on to hopes of bowl eligibility but they know to keep those hopes alive they must get the win this week. Texas Tech, like Texas, is off of a bye week but, unlike the Longhorns, the Red Raiders are off of a win against Kansas State. Prior to that victory, Texas Tech had lost three straight and I look for the Longhorns to quickly return the Red Raiders to their losing ways. Texas Tech has given up 44 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. The Longhorns, before the deceiving final score in their loss at West Virginia, had given up an average of only 17.5 points in their four prior games! Defense wins football games and that will prove to be the case again in this key Big 12 match-up on Thanksgiving Day.

I am playing on BALL STATE (vs Bowling Green) as my *10 Tuesday BEST BET @ 7 ET - It's been a tough season for Ball State but that doesn't mean the Cardinals won't play with pride and heart in their season finale. This is particularly true because the game is at Ball State. The Cardinals have won 3 straight home finales. They are a huge underdog to the Falcons because Bowling Green has been flying high this season while the Cards have struggled on both sides of the ball. The Falcons are in a 'sandwich spot' here as they are off their huge game against rival Toledo and now have the MAC Title game on deck too. In a spot like this, the points are simply too much. This line is inflated and the Cardinals have gone 13-7 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. Look for Ball State to 'leave it all on the field' in this one while Bowling Green gets caught looking ahead to the MAC Title game. That will make this game a lot closer than many are expecting.

I am playing on BOSTON COLLEGE (vs Notre Dame) as my *10 Non Conf Game of the Year @ 7:30 ET Saturday - This is essentially a home game for Boston College. The game is being played at Fenway Park in Boston. The Eagles are 9-4 ATS in this series with the Fighting Irish. Even though Boston College enters this game having endured a tough season, the Eagles are off of their bye week and they've been gearing up for this game as it's their last chance to make some noise this season. Boston College's season finale is at Syracuse so a win there certainly wouldn't make any big headlines for the Eagles. However, should BC pull off the upset of Notre Dame, everyone in the country would hear about that! Look for Boston College to bring a huge effort for this game. The Eagles defense is arguably the top defense in the nation. Even though the Boston College offense has been a big weakness, the Eagles did net their season high in passing yards in their loss to NC State before the bye week. Notre Dame is off a win by a 3-TD margin against Wake Forest last week. However, the Irish were outgained by the Demon Deacons in that game and yet the scoreboard result is what is leading to an over-inflated line with ND this week. That is why I see such big value here with a top-ranked Boston College defense playing at home and with their last chance to make a statement this season. The Eagles will pull all out all the stops to keep this one close Saturday. Notre Dame is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games not in South Bend. Also, as a double digit favorite, the Fighting Irish have covered just 5 of their last 19 games. 

I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE (vs Baylor) as my *10 CFB Game of the Week @ 7:30 ET Saturday - The Cowboys have dominated this series long-term. Not only has Oklahoma State won 15 of the last 18 meetings between the teams, the Cowboys are also on a 13-3-2 ATS run in the series. The Bears did get the win last season however and the Bears embarrassed Oklahoma State by jumping out to a 42-14 lead in the eventual 49-28 win. That makes this a revenge spot for the Cowboys and it's the perfect set up for Oklahoma State to take advantage of. The last time the teams met north of the Red River, the Cowboys blew out the Bears by a 49-17 final. Oklahoma State, after last year's loss at Baylor, was caught looking ahead to this game a bit as they barely got by Iowa State last week. As for the Bears results last week, they suffered their first loss of the season as they lost to Oklahoma by double digits. That home loss for Baylor could easily result in a case of 'unbeaten letdown' this week as the Bears hopes of going undefeated this season came to an abrupt end. Oklahoma State is 27-13 in their last 40 as a home favorite and the Cowboys certainly watched film on how the Sooners held the Bears to a season low 18 first downs last week. Perfect set up for a huge OSU win this week.

I am playing on LSU (@ Mississippi) as my *10 Main Event @ 3:30 ET Saturday - The Tigers have won 10 of the last 13 meetings between these teams and yet they are getting some points in this year's match-up. That sets up some nice underdog line value for a hungry LSU team. Even though the Tigers are on the road, the home team has covered just 4 times in the last 16 meetings between these schools. Mississippi is off of a bye week and still could be lamenting their loss to Arkansas in overtime in the prior week. After starting the season 4-0, the Rebels have since gone just 3-3. LSU has lost two straight after starting the season with a perfect 7-0 mark. However, the Tigers today will take advantage of an Ole Miss defense that has allowed over 425 yards per game in their last four games. LSU RB Fournette is hungry to bounce back in a big way here (after rare back to back games below 100 yards on the ground) and he'll take advantage of a struggling Rebels defense. Mississippi has lost four of their last six home finales both straight-up and ATS. I am grabbing the points with LSU here but would not be surprised if they get the straight-up win.

I am playing on BOISE STATE (vs Air Force) as my *10 Main Event Friday @ 9:30 ET - Boise State plays this game with true revenge against the Falcons. The Broncos certainly should be well prepared for the option as the past two weeks for Boise State have included a bye week and a game against New Mexico. That's the perfect set up for being prepared to face the Air Force option. That being said, the Broncos did get caught looking ahead to this game as they lost to the Lobos last week even though they were a huge favorite. However, it truly was a strange result on the scoreboard compared to what took place on the field. The Broncos lost 31-24 despite gaining nearly 650 yards in the game. Boise State was simply done in by four turnovers and lost despite outgaining the Lobos by more than 200 yards. Two of the Broncos turnovers last week came in the red zone adding even more fuel to the fire for Boise State this week as they now prepare to face the Falcons team that defeated them by two TDs last year even though Boise State was favored by two TDs. The Broncos were done in by turnovers in last year's game against Air Force. Boise State lost despite an edge of 130- yards in the game. The Falcons are off of a win over Utah State last week but was a home game and Air Force has won 12 straight home games. As an away dog, the Falcons are on a 4-8 ATS run. Boise State is on a 42-25 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Payback time for the Broncos who had won 18 straight games at home before last week's loss to the Lobos.

I am playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN (@ Northern Illinois) as my *10 BEST BET Wednesday @ 8 ET - This is a battle for first place in the MAC West division and the Broncos certainly have revenge on their minds. Western Michigan has lost each of the last six meetings between the schools. This looks like the year the Broncos can put an end to that streak. The set up is perfect as Northern Illinois is off of a road win at Buffalo while Western Michigan is off of a home loss to Bowling Green. The Falcons offense has been insanely good this season so there is not a lot of shame in that Broncos loss and it certainly has them fired up for this next game. The Huskies win over the Bulls is masking the fact that they do have a concern with the QB position. Northern Illinois was able to get by a mediocre Buffalo team but they are hurting with QB Hare out for the year. His replacement, Graham, is a redshirt freshman. You can bet the Broncos defense is licking their chops when they think about taking advantage of this significant step down in experience level for the Huskies QB position. Look for this to be a key variable in this game as the Broncos bounce back from their first MAC loss of the season. Western Michigan has covered 10 of their last 13 games as a road dog.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (vs Wyoming) as my *10 BLUE MARLIN Saturday @ 10:30 ET - A lot of points to lay here but Wyoming has simply been dreadful this season and a blowout is in the offing Saturday. The Cowboys are 1-9 on the year and all nine losses have come by a double digit margin. All of Wyoming's road losses have come by at least two touchdowns and they certainly appear to be traveling to San Diego State at absolutely the wrong time. The Aztecs are off of their bye week so they will have rested, fresh legs. Additionally, the San Diego State offense has been rolling and firing on all cylinders. The Aztecs have averaged 44.5 points per game in their last two games. San Diego State is hosting a Wyoming team that has averaged just 17 points per game on the road this season. You can see that based on those numbers alone there is reason to expect a blowout here. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Aztecs did lose outright (as an 18.5 point favorite!) in a shocking upset the last time they hosted the Cowboys. With that said, there is no doubt the Cowboys have the attention of the Aztecs this week and San Diego State has payback on their minds. The Aztecs are not only off of a bye week, they catch Wyoming playing for the 11th straight week so this game offers a big scheduling edge for San Diego State. The Aztecs have covered five straight games overall. Also, in conference action, San Diego State is on an amazing 21-6 ATS run in conference games. Huge edge in defense to the Aztecs in this one and that will help lead to a blowout margin in getting revenge for that prior home loss to the Cowboys.

I am playing on LSU (vs Arkansas) as my CFB *10 GAME OF THE MONTH Saturday @ 7:15 ET - Off of their disappointing loss to Alabama last week this may not seem like the best spot to back LSU as one may fear that they would be flat after their undefeated start to the season came to an end or, after losing such a important game against a big rival. However, the key reason that is highly unlikely is that the Tigers have plenty of motivation relating directly to this match-up with the Hogs. Arkansas embarrassed LSU last year in a 17-0 win. In that game the Tigers were held to season lows in yardage and in first downs. LSU didn't even crack the 125 mark in yards and also the Tigers were held to just a dozen first downs. The Razorbacks defense hasn't shown many signs of defense like that this season and I look for the hungry Tigers to use their big running game to open up some opportunities down the field for the aerial attack too. LSU is hungry after the loss to the Alabama and the Tigers also are extremely fired up for returning some punishment to the Razorbacks in Louisiana after what the Hogs did to them at Arkansas last season. The Razorbacks are off of their wild overtime win at Mississippi last week so this is the perfect spot in which to fade them. Arkansas won't be able to refocus after the emotional high of beating the Rebels in overtime while the Tigers will have plenty of focus at home and remembering what happened against Arkansas last season. This one should be all Tigers!

I am playing on WASHINGTON (@ Arizona State) as my *10 BEST BET Saturday @ 3 ET - Look for the Huskies to spoil the Sun Devils homecoming game. Washington is a small dog in this game despite the series dominance that Arizona State has had in their match-ups. That fact alone is sending a message to the betting markets for this one. That message is that the gap has closed in terms of the talent level between these two teams and, indeed, this looks like the perfect opportunity for the Huskies to put an end to the Sun Devils 9 game winning streak in this series. Washington lost last season's match-up by two touchdowns despite outgaining Arizona State in that game. The Huskies have payback on their minds in this revenge spot. The Sun Devils come into this game on a bit of a freefall as they have lost three straight games. As for the Huskies, even though they are off of a loss to Utah, Washington did outgain the Utes in that game. Washington is led by Head Coach Petersen who has covered 14 of last 22 as an underdog. Arizona State is slumping with having failed to cover 9 of their last 11 games. With both teams sitting at 4-5 on the season this becomes a critical contest and there is great value with the Huskies as an underdog as many of their recent defeats have been impacted by turnovers. Statistically, the Huskies have actually been quite productive (other than the turnovers) and this is leading to great line value in this spot.

I am playing on COLORADO (vs. Southern Cal) as my *10 CFB Game of the Week on Friday @ 9 ET - It will be a chilly evening in Colorado on Friday night. Not exactly typical of the weather the Trojans are used to down in sunny Southern California. This does appear to be a bit of a trap game for USC and I expect the Buffaloes to be a tough out as a scrappy home dog. Colorado is off of a rare poor effort against Stanford. Prior to that game the Buffaloes had only two losses by more than an 8 point margin this entire season. Colorado is a dangerous place to visit late in the season and can be a tough out as a home dog. The Buffaloes are on an overall 10-3 ATS run in home games. The Trojans are 11-21 ATS in their last 32 games as a road favorite. The fact that USC is favored by more than two touchdowns here is offering even more value on what should be a chilly, raw night in Boulder, Colorado. Statistically, the Trojans only rank slightly better on each side of the ball in comparison with the Buffaloes. USC has been more efficient on both sides of the ball in terms of the relationship between yardage and points but, the point is, in terms of moving the ball on offense and limiting others production on defense, there is not a large gap between these two teams. Certainly there does not appear to be one large enough to justify this big line. USC is 2-8 ATS when they are on a winning streak of two or more games. Colorado is 3-1 ATS as a home dog in a range of 14.5 to 17 points.

I am playing on GEORGIA TECH (vs Virginia Tech) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Thursday @ 7:30 ET - The Yellow Jackets have covered 5 of the last 7 meetings with the Hokies. Their option attack, no matter how strong a defense might be, is never that easy to defend. With that said, Virginia Tech has not been as strong on defense this year as they have been in prior seasons and a road game at Georgia Tech is unlikely to help matters for Virginia Tech. The Hokies dominating win over Boston College on Halloween may look good on paper but the Eagles have one of the worst offenses in Division I football this season! That defensive effort, though impressive, almost needs stricken from the records when trying to gauge the Virginia Tech defense. That said, in their other three road games this season, the Hokies have allowed an average of 30 points per game. That spells trouble as Virginia Tech now faces a Yellow Jackets team that has averaged 43 points per game in their home games this season. Georgia Tech is angry off of their upset loss at the hands of the Hokies in Virginia. The Yellow Jackets also know that they must win out to become bowl eligible. All these factors in favor of the home team have me siding with Georgia Tech in this one as they should win in a rout. 

I am playing on WASHINGTON (vs Utah) as my *10 PAC-12 Game of the Year Saturday @ 7:30 ET - The Huskies had lost three of their four games prior to facing Arizona last week. Washington then proceeded to absolutely crush the Wildcats in a 49-3 final and I expect the Huskies to carry forward some momentum from that game right into this week's big match-up with Utah. Series history is certainly on the side of the Huskies as, though most of it is quite dated, Washington is 8-0 all time against the Utes. The Huskies absolutely dominated both sides of the ball last week as they shut down an Arizona team that had been moving the ball quite well on offense. That gives the Huskies defense a big confidence boost heading into this match-up with Utah. The Utes seem to be stuck in a "sluggish mode" right now and it's the perfect time to fade them again as they can't seem to shake the doldrums. Utah suffered their first loss of the season two weeks ago against USC and then seemed quite sluggish in their unimpressive win last week over a weak Oregon State team. Statistically the Huskies are the better defense in this match-up and they hold the home field edge as well as the situational edge as the Utes still seem stuck suffering from 'unbeaten letdown' since the loss to the Trojans. Washington keeps Utah's downward spiral going Saturday.

I am playing on SOUTH CAROLINA (@ Tennessee) as my *10 Game of the Week Saturday @ 4 ET - After winning three straight in this series, South Carolina has been upset each of the last two years. Perhaps this is they year the Gamecocks get the big upset? Whether that occurs or not I certainly do feel these big points are well worth the taking. Tennessee seems overpriced here with an inflated line. The Volunteers are facing a South Carolina offense that got some confidence back with arguably their best performance on offense this season in their 35-28 loss to A & M last week. The Gamecocks defense has been a weakness this season but with a resurgent offense and catching Tennessee off back to back big games, I expect South Carolina to 'hang around' in this game all the way through. The Volunteers had a big game with Alabama two weeks ago and then got a big road win at Kentucky last week. Not sure the Vols have enough left in the tank to earn a blowout win here. Look for South Carolina to give them quite a scare in this one as they stay close throughout. 

I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA (vs Duke) as my *10 Blue Marlin Saturday @ 12:00 ET - This battle is for first place in the ACC Coastal Division as well as the Victory Bell. It is a big rivalry indeed and yet North Carolina has truly dominated as they have won 22 of the last 25 meetings. Duke is off of a crushing loss to Miami as the Blue Devils rallied late and looked like they had won the game only to have questionable multi-lateral kickoff return touchdown for the Hurricanes prove to be the deciding points. Games like that are so tough to come back from and I expect Duke to struggle here. Last year the Tar Heels annihilated the Blue Devils by a margin of 25 points and, considering the circumstances here, a similar result this year can be expected. The Tar Heels are on a 15-8 ATS run and getting fantastic QB play from Williams. North Carolina also is going for their 8th straight win overall as they've won 7 in a row since dropping their season opener this year. Laying just single digits, this play easily made my Saturday card.

I am playing on SMU (vs Temple) as my *10 Main Event Friday @ 8:00 ET - The last time these two teams met was two years ago and the Mustangs won by double digits even though they were down by two touchdowns at halftime. The fact that SMU has this game at home and that Temple is off of a huge 'mega-game' against the Fighting Irish has me backing the Mustangs here. SMU is catching the Owls at the perfect time to spring the upset. SMU comes into this game off of a loss to Tulsa and the issue in that game was an inability to stop the Golden Hurricane offense. However, the Owls offense is certainly not a strength this season and it is going to prove difficult for Temple to create much separation on the scoreboard in this one. The Owls hanging tight with Notre Dame last week was certainly impacted by the fact that Temple got some red zone turnovers in that game. The Fighting Irish easily could have won by quite a margin if not for those turnovers. This 'quirky' result from last week is helping to provide additional line value this week as the Owls are a more heavily favored than they should be in what is truly a flat spot that is perfect for the fade. Take SMU and fade Temple here as it will be hard for the Owls to be focused on a 1-7 Mustangs team when they just played a 7-1 top foe.

I am playing on FRESNO STATE (vs Nevada) as my *10 Main Event Thursday @ 10:30 ET - The Bulldogs are a dangerous home dog in this spot. For one thing, Nevada is in a great spot to be faded here. The Wolf Pack have gone 5-13 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, Nevada is off of a win over Hawaii and the Wolf Pack have gone 2-6 SU and ATS the last 8 times they are off of a victory over a conference foe. Fresno State is known for thriving in this role. As a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points the Bulldogs have gone 8-2 ATS. Fresno State won 7 of those 10 games outright. The Bulldogs have won each of the last two meetings between these teams by at least 18 points each time. From October 17th through November 27th this is the only home game that Fresno State has on their schedule. As a result, this one had already been circled as a must win game and the Bulldogs want to make the most of their home field edge Thursday. Look for Fresno State's fantastic history in the home dog role to add another win tonight. 

I am playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN (vs Ball State) as my *10 Blue Marlin Thursday @ 7:30 ET - The Broncos are poised for a blowout here. Two years ago Western Michigan lost at home against the Cardinals and they certainly haven't forgotten that game. The Broncos lost by a 3 touchdown margin to Ball State. The Cardinals truly were the much better team back in 2013 but things have definitely changed quickly in a span of just two short years and now Western Michigan can 'return the favor' of a beatdown in this one. The Broncos are favored by two touchdowns and it is absolutely an 'earned' pointspread. Ball State has one of the worst defenses in the MAC and also ranks quite low on the offensive charts as well. The Cardinals, since their season opening win over an over-matched VMI team, have had just one big game on offense the rest of this season (against Northern Illinois). In their other seven games since the season opener, Ball State has averaged just 20 points per game! That kind of performance on offense is not going to cut it against a Western Michigan team that has averaged 41 points per game in their last 6 games. In weeks 10 thru 13 of the CFB season, the Cardinals are 0-5 ATS the past two seasons. The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in games on turf this season and the Cards simply are not going to be able to keep up with Western Michigan's potent offense in this one.

I am playing on OHIO UNIVERSITY (@ Bowling Green) as my *10 MAC Game of the Year Wednesday @ 8 ET - The Falcons certainly have been rolling and therefore are getting a lot of attention heading into this match-up with the Bobcats and that is helping to provide additional line value for underdog Ohio University in this one. Oftentimes the worst thing for a team that was rolling is to have a bye week. That takes away from the momentum that was being built. Look for Bowling Green to perhaps be a little sluggish in this one early and I certainly don't expect them to be firing on all cylinders right out of the gate. Also, the Bobcats are allowing just 194 passing yards per game. One of the Falcons biggest strengths is their passing attack but they not find the yardage through the air coming so easy against Ohio U. The Bobcats were off of back to back losses so, for them, the bye week was welcome. It was the first time this season that Ohio U. had lost two straight games. The past seasons, when off of back to back losses, the Bobcats have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in their next game. Neither team has played a difficult schedule this season but this is the Falcons first game this season where they've faced a team with a winning record on the year. That is worth noting because Bowling Green is 21-33 ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a winning record. Look for this game to be much closer than many are expecting. 

I am playing on WASHINGTON STATE (vs Stanford) as my *10 ESPN Game of the Week @ 10:30 ET Saturday - Another case of tremendous line value with a dangerous big dog on their home turf. Make no mistake about it the Washington State defense is a weakness of theirs. But when you have an offense like the Cougars do (averaging over 500 yards per game this season) you rarely are out of game and also have tremendous backdoor cover potential (if needed). Washington State is catching Stanford at a good time. It is the first road game that the Cardinal have had since late September. That can be tough on a team and Stanford is 3-7 ATS as a road favorite the last 3 years. Also, as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points, the Cardinal have gone 1-4 (20%) ATS. The Cougars are playing with some extra confidence right now as they have won three straight games. When entering a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more, Washington State is 4-1 (80%) ATS. The Cougars only two losses season came by 7 points or less and they are 'in this one' all the way Saturday night.

I am playing on TEMPLE (vs Notre Dame) as my *10 CFB Game of the Month @ 8 ET Saturday - People not from the Philly area don't understand the level of passion the Philly fans have about certain teams. When you've had the years of subpar results that many Philadelphia pro and college teams have had it creates a disdain for some of the most successful teams across all levels. This is why people around Philly are known for hatred of the Yankees in MLB, the Cowboys in NFL, and - you guessed it - Notre Dame in College Football. With all the history of storied success for the Fighting Irish there are many fans in the area who feel that any Saturday is a good Saturday...as long as Notre Dame loses. The key point here is that Temple and all the fans are going to be sky high for this game. College Gameday is coming to Temple and the Owls are going to be more than ready. The points being offered to the undefeated Owls here are simply too high. Notre Dame gave up nearly 600 yards in their most recent game and the Fighting Irish will struggle to hold off the Owls in this one. With that said, I just don't see Notre Dame as being able to pull away in this game. The Irish are 3-7 as a road favorite the last 3 years combined. As a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, Notre Dame is a long-term 3-6 ATS. Temple is 3-0 ATS this season and 14-6 ATS the last 3 seasons combined as an underdog. As an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points the prior two seasons, the Owls went 4-1 (80%) ATS. Huge value with the hungry, big dog in this match-up.

I am playing on KENTUCKY (vs Tennessee) as my *10 SEC Game of the Year @ 7 ET Saturday - The Volunteers are off of a tough loss at Alabama. The defeat at the hands of the Crimson Tide was the type of loss that is tough to bounce back from. The Vols have now lost 4 of their last 6 games and I simply do not see any justification for Tennessee to be installed as favorite of more than a TD in this road game at Kentucky. The Wildcats did get trounced by Mississippi State last week but the Cats were on the road and turnovers certainly had a lot to do with that final result as well. Kentucky has lost back to back games but they previously were 4-1 on the season. The Wildcats can (and should be expected to) bounceback in this spot. Kentucky has been dominated for years in their series with Tennessee but the Cats have absolutely closed the gap on the Vols in terms of talent level. These teams are much more evenly matched now and with the home field edge combined with the large point spread here, the underdog is the way to go in this one. The Wildcats have averaged nearly 300 yards per game through the air in their last 4 games and look for the Kentucky aerial attack to be the difference-maker in this match-up Saturday.

I am playing on WASHINGTON (@ Stanford) as my *10 Best Bet on Saturday @ 10:30 PM ET - With all the questions about the quarterback position for the Huskies throughout the week, there ended up being tremendous line value offered to Washington in this match-up at Stanford. The Huskies are hungry after their tight loss to Oregon last week. Speaking of tight losses. Each of their past two meetings with Stanford have been decided by just one score as well. I feel this line has truly gotten out of hand on the Cardinal because this season they also certainly haven't shown the same stout defense they had possessed in prior years. This season the Cardinal have given up 386 yards or more in 3 of their last four games. That is simply something you would not have seen with past Stanford teams. There is additional line value here because the Cardinal beat UCLA by 3 TD's last week but Stanford was out-gained by 65 yards in that game. Washington is 8-4 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons. Stanford has some extra rest for this game but the Cardinal have gone 1-3 straight-up and against the spread the last 4 times they've played a game after 8 days of rest. I like the big points with the scrappy underdog in this one. *10 Best Bet WASHINGTON

I am playing on USC (vs Utah) as my *10 Personal Favorite Saturday @ 7:30 ET - Big revenge spot for the Trojans as they lost on a field goal with less than ten seconds to go in last season's match-up between these clubs. The last time the teams met at Southern Cal the Trojans dominated with a win by a margin of 16 points. I look for a similar result today. USC is off of a loss by a double digit margin at Notre Dame so the Trojans do have more motivation here than just revenge for last year's defeat at the hands of the Utes. In the loss to the Fighting Irish the Trojans outgained Notre Dame by more than 100 yards and I look for them to come up big at home here and bounce back from the frustrating road defeat. The Trojans are catching Utah at a good time as the Utes are off of a big come from behind win over Arizona State last week that kept them undefeated. Utah has a bullseye on their backs right now and USC would love to be the team that puts the first blemish on their record. Even though the Utes are undefeated they have been outgained in half of their games this season and I look for a huge game from the Trojans in their first home game since Sarkisian was fired.

I am playing on Virginia Tech (vs Duke) as my *10 ACC Game Of Year Saturday @ 3:30 ET - The Hokies are 13-1 in the last 14 meetings in this series. Virginia Tech did get some measure of revenge last year by winning at Duke. However, the Hokies still remember what happened the last time the Blue Devils visited Blacksburg, VA. That home loss two years ago is something Virginia Tech wants to make sure doesn't happen again here. In that game the Hokies actually outgained Duke by nearly 200 yards but simply fell short on the scoreboard. While the Blue Devils come into this year's match-up off of win (huge win over Army preceded the bye) the Hokies come in very hungry. This is not only because of the home loss to Duke two years ago but also because they lost by double digits to Miami last week. Virginia Tech will be fired up in this spot and they are a great value at a low price at home for this one. Revenge time in this ACC match-up Saturday. Even though Duke has certainly enjoyed a resurgence under coach Cutcliffe, this is still a Blue Devils team with long term marks like these: 31-96 SU in road games, 38-149 SU in conference games, and 8-23 SU when off of a bye week. This one should be all Hokies.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (vs. Utah State) as my *10 Best Bet on Friday @ 10:30 PM ET - Although these teams haven't met since 2010 and some of the history is old, it's hard to ignore the fact that San Diego State has a 10-1 edge in this series history. The last time these two teams met was 5 years ago and the Aztecs gained more than double the yardage of the Aggies. I expect Utah State to struggle in this tough scheduling spot as they are off of a huge win over Boise State. That makes this a definite flat spot for the Aggies. It had been nearly 25 years since Utah State had recorded a home win over a ranked foe and they did benefit from 8 turnovers in that win over the Broncos. San Diego State is also off on upset win but it was a small upset as the Aztecs were +3 beat San Jose State. Unlike Utah State's big dog win, it also wasn't about turnovers. San Diego State simply pummeled the Spartans with a dominating yardage edge of 377 to 148. The Aztecs are in a nice situation here as a home dog and catching a road fave of a huge upset win. That makes the Aztecs a very dangerous dog in this spot. *10 Best Bet SAN DIEGO STATE Friday

I am playing on UCLA (vs California) as my *10 Thursday Main Event - Looking at the history of this series it's been the home team that has held the upper hand as they've won 13 of the last 15 meeings with a fantastic 12-2-1 ATS mark in those 15 games. With that said, the Bruins look like the play here, on the surface, but there is certainly much more than just series history on their side. UCLA won last year's game by only two points but they actually outgained Cal by about 200 yards and so the margin of victory should have been even greater in that non-covering win. The last visit at UCLA was two years ago and the Bruins won by a 27 point margin in a dominating win. Each team comes into this game off of a loss and even though the Golden Bears are off of a bye week the Bruins are at least on normal rest since they did play last Thursday as well. That ugly result against Stanford last Thursday has UCLA fired up to come up with a huge win here on Thursday night. The Bruins have lost back to back Pac 12 games by double digit margins and I believe that will have them fired up for a huge performance here. Also, UCLA does have a strong pass defense and the Bears do get about 70% of their offense through the air so I expect this strong edge for the Bruins to be a difference-maker in this one. Once again in this series, the home team should get the job done. 

I am playing on EAST CAROLINA (vs Temple) as my *10 Thursday ESPN Roast - This is a revenge game for the Pirates as they lost to the Owls last season despite outgaining them by nearly 300 yards. East Carolina had an edge in first downs of TWENTY but it was EIGHT fumbles on the day (5 of those resulting in turnovers) that ruined the day for the Pirates. A tough loss byt a 20-10 final as a 10 point favorite so revenge is definitely on order Thursday. East Carolina comes into this game off of a win over Tulsa last week. Even though the 30-17 final may not look that impressive, the Pirates were up 23-0 in the 4th quarter of that game before 'taking their foot off of the gas'. The Owls come into this game with a perfect 6-0 record on the season and actually ranked for the first time in 36 years. That is keeping this line off of where it should be and I'll grab the value with Pirates HC McNeill who has a 6-1 ATS record when seeking revenge. 

I am playing on COLORADO STATE (vs Air Force) as my *10 False Favorite Game of the Year - This is a big revenge spot for the Rams as they were a TD favorite over the Falcons last year but lost outright by a field goal. Colorado State will have extra motivation as a result and the scheduling situation certainly favors the Rams as well. That's because CSU has a bye week on deck while Air Force is in a much tougher scheduling spot. The Falcons are off back to back rivalry games including last week's big win over Wyoming. Look for this win to leave Air Force a little "flat" for this game where as the Rams are fired up not only because of last week's loss to the Falcons but also because they got drilled 41-10 by Boise State last week. Now it's CSU's turn to be on the right side of a rout and the last time they faced Air Force here they won huge by a 58 to 13 margin. While the margin may not be quite so big this time around, the scheduling and motivational edges here sure do point to another big win for the Rams.

I am playing on FRESNO STATE (vs UNLV) as my *10 Friday ESPN Best Bet - This is a perfect spot to back the Bulldogs. Fresno State was embarrassed badly last week at home against Utah State. That said, the Bulldogs will be looking to take out some frustration this week after the embarrassment at the hands of the Aggies last week. Fresno State will take advantage of facing a UNLV team that is 2-4 on the season. The Rebels upset the Bulldogs last season to end Fresno State's 3 game winning streak in this series. That said it's time for a little payback Friday and the Bulldogs won the last meeting in Fresno State by 24 points. While it is true the Bulldogs have lost five straight games heading into this one, they have certainly faced a tough schedule with some tough match-ups during that stretch. 3 of the first 4 games in the 5 game losing streak were on the road. The Bulldogs, after last week's rare debacle at home, will certainly come to play on Friday night at home. Fresno State is 7-2 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points and 6 of those 7 victories against the spread were outright victories! The Bulldogs don't take the home dog role lightly. As for UNLV, the Rebels are on a 7-17 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. UNLV is certainly not used to being a favorite often in recent seasons and they are likely to struggle again in that role Friday night. As a road favorite of any size they are on a 6-11 ATS run. *10 ESPN Best Bet on FRESNO STATE Friday.

I am playing on UCLA (@ Stanford) as my *10 Pac-12 Game of the Week Thursday @ 10:30 ET - Big revenge spot for the Bruins. UCLA was up 10-7 in the 2nd quarter of last season's match-up but then Stanford's defense rose the occasion and the Cardinal went on to outscore the Bruins 24 to 0 from that point forward. UCLA was nearly a TD favorite in that game and suffered the upset at the hands of Stanford. That makes this a payback spot for the Bruins as they can return the favor by getting the outright upset as a dog of nearly a full TD in this one. From a situational (and line value) perspsective, this one sets up very nicely as the Bruins are off of an ugly loss to Arizona State before their bye week while Stanford is off of a huge win over Arizona before their bye week. UCLA has covered 6 of their last 8 times as an away dog and the Cardinal defense is not as strong as it's been in prior seasons. Stanford has allowed 24 points per game in their 3 games against Pac-12 competition this season and this will be their toughest Pac-12 test yet. *10 Pac-12 Game of the Week UCLA.

I am playing on NORTH TEXAS (vs Western Kentucky) as my *10 Thursday Game of the Year @ 7:30 ET - North Texas has made a coaching change after their unacceptable and embarrassing start to the season. After the firing of head coach McCarney I look for the Mean Green to respond in a huge way and that begins tonight in a rare primetime affair that the host team is going to want to make the most of. North Texas is relishing the opportunity to take a shot at shutting down the red hot offense of the Hilltoppers. With Western Kentucky coming into this game rolling, the fired up Mean Green defense is ready to go into full "attack mode" in this one. These Conference USA foes used to face each other as SunBelt foes and the Mean Green held the upper hand having won 4 of the last 6 and going 4-1-1 ATS in those meetings. Western Kentucky enters this game off of a huge win over rival Middle Tennessee State last week so certainly the situational advantage is in favor of North Texas in a huge way this week. That was the first time the Hilltoppers had won at home against the rival Blue Raiders since 1989. It's nearly impossible for Western Kentucky not to be a little flat here after that huge win and, again, they're walking into a hornets' nest tonight as the Mean Green are fired up after the coaching change that followed them getting thoroughly embarrassed in their 66-7 homecoming game loss! *10 Thursday Game of the Year NORTH TEXAS.

I am playing on AUBURN (@ Kentucky) as my *10 Thursday ESPN Main Event @ 7 ET - Great value here with the Tigers bascially just needing to win the game to get the cash. Auburn has won 16 of the last 17 games between these teams. Look for another big game from RB Barber here as he had 5 TDs for Auburn in their win over San Jose State before the bye week. I also think that the way the Tigers are handling the situation with WR Duke Williams will have a positive impact on the psyche of this team. Auburn has certainly underperformed so far this season but they begin to turn the corner here now. Kentucky was fortunate to get past Eastern Kentucky in their game before the bye and they won't be so fortunate here. *10 ESPN Main Event on AUBURN.

I am playing on ARIZONA STATE (vs Colorado) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Saturday @ 10 PM ET - Arizona State has won six straight in this series and the Sun Devils have gone 5-1 ATS in the process. Though the spread on Saturday's game may seem a bit high at first glance, those six wins came by an average margin of 27 points per game. Another blowout should be on tap for Saturday as well. Colorado was able to hang with Oregon in the first half last week but the way they got blown out in the second half is a sign of things to come here this week. Arizona State is coming off of a blowout win over UCLA and they will carry momentum from that victory (by a double digit margin as a double digit dog) right into this week's game. What the Sun Devils did against the Bruins run game last week was ultra impressive and shows just how much the ASU defense has already progressed early this season. Colorado is on a 13-32 ATS run as an away dog and I look for them to falter in that role again this week. ASU should roll big here.

I am playing on MICHIGAN STATE (@ Rutgers) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Saturday @ 8 PM ET - Big points to lay here with the Spartans but they're absolutely worth it. After letting Purdue come back last week - and only winning the game by a margin of 3 points - Michigan State learned their lesson. They need to battle hard all the way through. Just like they did the last time they faced Rutgers. That was last year and the Spartans rolled the Scarlet Knights by 42 points. Another huge victory over Rutgers should be expected here. Even though the Knights are 2-2 on the season they beat an FCS team and a very bad Kansas team. As for their other two games this season, Rutgers was outgained badly. The point is that the Scarlet Knights, and especially their subpar defense, are likely to get torched here as they take a major step up in class to face the Spartans. Even though Michigan State is 0-5 ATS this year (which actually makes for for extra line value here) the Spartans are on a 17-5 ATS runs as an away favorite and I look for them to again dominate in that role on Saturday.

I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE (@ West Virginia) as my *10 Big 12 Game of the Year on Saturday @ 7 PM ET - West Virginia has won each of the last two meetings between these teams so this is a double revenge spot for Oklahoma State and I expect the Cowboys to make the most of it. This is a great spot to fade the Mountaineers as they are still reeling from the beating they took last week at the hands of Oklahoma. West Virginia was down by 17 by halftime and never was able to fully compete with the Sooners in the eventual loss by a margin of 20 points. That said, the Mountaineers are being overvalued in this match-up in my opinion. The Cowboys are undefeated on the season and their aerial attack was dominant last week and they now face a Mountaineers defensive unit that allowed 320 yards through the air last week. Also, from a scheduling perspective it's a big edge for the Cowboys here as West Virginia is off of the big game with Oklahoma and the Mountaineers have Baylor on deck. Oklahoma State is in a much better position as they have a bye on deck. Sealing the deal for me is the fact that the Mountaineers are just 7-13 ATS in their last 20 as a home favorite. Combining that with the significant points being offered to the Cowboys here and this is the perfect spot for a big play on Oklahoma State. 

I am playing on TEXAS (vs Oklahoma) as my *10 Rivalry GOW on Saturday @ Noon ET - In last year's Red River Rivalry the Longhorns lost despite having edges of 250 more yards and 13 more first downs than the Sooners. Texas was done in by a kickoff return for a TD and an interception returned for a TD. Of course the Horns have huge motivation here after the way they lost last season's game. That said, even though Texas has played poorly recently, these rivalry games are an entirely different "breed" of game. I expect a huge effort from the Longhorns to keep them easily within the large points being offered here. UT is off of an embarrassing effort against TCU but they catch Oklahoma off of a huge win over West Virginia. That makes for great line value here and the Longhorns haven't started a season 1-5 in nearly 60 years. Texas will scratch and claw and do everything they need to do to stay in this rivarly game. The Horns have covered 6 of the last 9 in this series while, overall, Oklahoma is on a 6-11 ATS run as a conference favorite. Huge value to the Horns in this one with the big number.

I am playing on VIRGINIA TECH (vs NC State) as my *10 Friday Main Event @ 8 PM ET Friday - Virginia Tech has won three straight in this series including the most recent meeting which featured a double digit win back in 2010. The Hokies home crowd is typically in full force in these primetime weeknight games and I look for them to be 'loud and proud' on Friday night. That said, the Wolf Pack will be battling two key elements tonight. They will have to deal with crowd noise plus the stellar defense of Virginia Tech. The Hokies have held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 276 yards or less. The Wolf Pack, on the other hand, have faced a very weak schedule and I expect their defense to be fully exposed tonight. The Hokies are off of a weak performance on offense but that was preceded by Virginia Tech gaining at least 439 yards in each of their three prior games. In fact, the Hokies amassed nearly 600 yards of offense in one of those games. This is a key ACC battle for these teams and the home field edge and the crowd noise will go a long way for the Hokies. Virginia Tech has lost two straight but, in the past two seasons, they have gone 3-1 SU when they're off two or more consecutive straight-up losses. NC State is on a 3-14 straight-up run in conference games and they are 0-7 straight-up in the month of October the past two years. 

I am playing on Middle Tenn. State (vs Vanderbilt) as my *10 Personal Favorite @ 7 ET Saturday - Vanderbilt is off of an SEC loss as they fell short against Mississippi last week even though they were in the perfect spot to take advantage and pull off a huge upset. That's because the Commodores were catching the Rebels off of their big win over Alabama. Unable to take advantage of the flat spot for Ole Miss, Vandy is now in a flast spot themselves. Off of the big game versus an SEC foe and with a bye week and another SEC foe, South Carolina, on deck this is a tough spot for Vanderbilt. The Commodores are facing a Middle Tennessee State that is much hungrier than they are. The Blue Raiders look at this as a chance to make some noise with a big win over an SEC foe. Middle Tennesee has won 12 of their last 14 home games and gone 9-5 ATS in those games. Look for the Blue Raiders to take advantage of a Vandy team that has lost 6 straight road games and that has lost 6 of their last 9 games against non-SEC foes. Motivation is huge in sports and this is a classic case where only one team has it. 

I am playing on Arkansas (@ Tennessee) as my *10 Game of the Week @ 7 ET Saturday - After blowing a late lead of two touchdowns against Florida last week this is a brutally tough spot for the Volunteers. It is just simply very tough to bounce back from a game like that and Tennessee is struggling with the fact that they can not close out games. With that said, this is a nice underdog situation to grab a team that should be 'right there' with Tennessee all the way. In fact, Arkansas has a great shot at the upset here and they also have great backdoor cover potential. So, no matter how you look at it, this is one of those value spots for a dangerous underdog. The big problem for Tennessee is the aerial attack as they can't seem to get anything consistent going in terms of getting the ball downfield to their receivers on longer patterns. This is going to allow the Razorbacks to stack the box to defend against the run and I just do not see the Volunteers being able to win big here based on the current struggles in the passing game. While Arkansas also lost a tough one last week (in OT to Texas A & M) they have the much better passing attack and their run defense also has been solid this season. That is the key to the Razorbacks giving the Volunteers all they can handle in this one!

I am playing on Rice (vs Western Kentucky) as my *10 Conference USA Game of the Year @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Rice is off a crushing loss and will be looking to bounce back after getting hammered 70 to 17 by Baylor. Western Kentucky is certainly no Baylor and I feel this line is quite inflated. The Hilltoppers are off of a huge win last week by a 56-14 final but that came against an outclassed MAC foe as Miami-Ohio's struggles continued. Rice is happy to be home here but the fact they have played 3 straight road games hasn't fazed the Owls as all three games were in-state road games. Before last week's struggles against the powerful Bears, the Owls were avaraging over 500 yards of offense per game this season. The Hilltoppers defense is a glaring weakness and yet they may be overconfident this week after the annihilation of the RedHawks. That sets this up perfectly for being a great spot for the Owls to bounce back at home and immediately get back on track after the ugly loss to Baylor. Before the crushing loss to Baylor, the Owls had taken an ATS loss just 2 times in their past 13 games. Look for Rice to immediately resume the winning for their backers in this prime value spot. 

I am playing on ARIZONA STATE (vs. USC) as my 10* Best Bet on Saturday. 
This is one of the later games on the board on Saturday, which gives you a strong play heading into the final stretch of the college football day. 
I was thrilled to see ASU getting so many points here when this line came out and I'm surprised to see the line as high as it is. The Sun Devils have absolutely feasted on USC in recent years when it comes to covering the spread. They are 8-2 against the spread over the past 10 seasons against the Trojans, which includes a 6-1 ATS stretch over the last seven years and two consecutive straight up wins. 
ASU broke Trojan hearts last year with a Hail Mary victory as 11.5-point underdogs and the Trojans have to face quarterback Mike Bercovici again this year, who is back as Arizona State's starter. He started last year's game due to an injury to regular starter Taylor Kelly and he torched USC for 510 yards and five TDs with no interceptions.
I think we saw last week what happens to USC when it faces a solid offense this season when the Trojans fell 41-31 to Stanford as 9.5-point favorites. I think we'll see a similar result this time against a Sun Devils offense that knows how to put points on the board. 

 I am playing on FLORIDA (vs. TENNESSEE) as my 10* Personal Favorite play on Saturday @ 3:30 ET

When it comes to divisional SEC power bouts, I tend to lean towards the team with the better defense and that's the case in this SEC East matchup in The Swamp. 
Florida is favored by a tiny margin and though the offense still hasn't quite figured out who its top quarterback is, the defense has established itself as one you don't want to line up against. The Gators got two of their top starting players back in the secondary after injuries and they stepped up to hold Kentucky to just nine points in a 14-9 win. 
The D-line dominated Kentucky and the Wildcats managed just 240 yards - way below their season average - and Florida won the yardage battle for the third time in three games this season. 
With home field and the better defense, I believe the Gators will shut down the Vols and earn the win and cover on Saturday.