Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Owls come in confident. They won six of their final seven, including a double-digit win at Houston, the lone loss came against UCF. They won their last two games by a combined score of 84-24. Sure, they're going through a coaching change but unlike the last time when it happened a couple of years ago, they're much better prepared - all the assistants stayed on this time. After coming up short in (interim coach) Ed Foley's first chance at a bowl, two years ago, they're going to be hungry to get this one. Duke, meanwhile, lost its last two games by a combined score of 94-13. The Owls have plenty of stats working in their favor, as they've been money at the betting window in recent seasons. One that stands out is their perfect 7-0 ATS record, when coming off an ATS win as a double-digit favorite. Expect the Owls to improve on those stats Thurs. afternoon. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO (10* ANNIHILATOR). I successfully played against the Bulls in their last regular season game. That 1-point loss has caused everyone to jump off the bandwagon. The Bulls opened as a 3-point favorite but that quickly came down. I feel thats providing us with plenty of value. The Bulls have still had an excellent season and they're going to come in hungry; they're 10-5 ATS their last 15 off a game where they didn't cover. To me, Troy's double-digit loss to Appalachian State in its last game is more concerning than Buffalo's loss against NIU. The Bulls can put up plenty of points and are never out of a game. As Troy's coach Neal Brown noted: "They’re as good an offense as we’ve faced all year. It starts with the quarterback." (Jackson had 27 TD passed vs. just 11 Ints, throwing for nearly 3000 yards.) With 10 wins, these Bulls have already made history. They're not done yet - expect them to bring home the first bowl win in school history. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* VIOLATOR). After stumbling down the stretch, I believe we're going to see an extremely motivated Aztec team on Wednesday, one which tends to thrive in the underdog role. Note that the Aztecs are 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were getting points. I believe that the Aztec defense is better than it showed down the stretch. They're strong against the run, which will serve them well against the Ohio ground attack. Note that they're 26-14 ATS over the years, after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of the previous game. While I respect the Bobcats, I feel that their schedule was pretty soft. Note that they're just 3-8 ATS over the year, after b2b victories of 21 or more points. I expect Rocky Long to do a great job of ensureing that losing down the stretch makes for an extremely motivated SDSU team, one that comes away with AT LEAST the Frisco Bowl cover. 

I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* MAIN EVENT). The Aggies will say all the right things that they're happy to be here. They're not. They wanted a bigger bowl and this is a disappointment. That type of disappointment makes it difficult to win, let alone cover a big number. The Aggies' task is made that much tougher by the fact that the Mean Green are actually pretty good. In 2015, the Mean Green won only a single game, before hiring current head coach Seth Littrell. That hiring proved to be huge for them, as they've been competitive ever since. This marks their second straight season with nine wins and this is their best team under Littrel. While Littrel was rumord to be heading to K-State, he reportedly withdrew his name from consideration. Meanwhile, Utah State's coach (Matt Wells) has already left for Texas Tech. The Aggie offensive and defensive coordinators joined him, too. Having come up short in bowl games the past two seasons, the Mean Green have something to prove. I believe that this game means more to them and I expect that to lead to AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA (10* CONF. CHAMP. GAME OF YEAR). As per usual, Alabama had a dominant season. The Tide finished at 12-0. The Bulldogs weren't far off, however, as they finished at 11-1. With this game being played at Atlanta and the Dawgs getting double-digits at the betting window, I believe that we're getting outstanding value. True, Alabama hammered LSU, the team which handed Georgia its lone loss. However, Sometimes a loss can actually help a team. Since the loss to the Tigers, Georgia has emphasized its power-running game, averaging over 300 rushing yards over its past five games. Thats the one spot (run defense) that the Tide may be a little vulnerable, too. (Over the past two weeks, Alabama has allowed more than 400 rushing yards.) Don't be surprised when the Bulldogs shock the world. 

I'm playing on NIU (10* MAIN EVENT). The Bulls have had an excellent season and are clearly an improved team. Improvement was expected, as they brought back 14 returning starters. While 10 wins may not have been expected, their schedule was considerably softer than the one that NIU played. I'm not convinced that they're the real deal. Mixed in with Buffalo's 10 wins were two blowout losses, which I believe are revealing. Army and Ohio were able to beat them by 29 and 35. We're not talking Alabama and Clemson - Army and Ohio. Army couldn't even beat teams like Lafayette and Colgate by nearly that many. Likewise, for Ohio. Favored by more than 4 TD's, the Bobcats only beat Howard by eight. Yet, those teams destroyed Buffalo. On the other side, I don't think the Huskies, who faced the likes of Utah, Iowa and Florida State, are getting enough respect. This is a team with playmakers all over the field. I'll gladly take the points but I expect the Huskies to rise to the occasion and win this one outright. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* ANNIHILATOR). Playing at Pittsburgh, on this very day exactly one year ago, the Panthers upset the Hurricanes last season. However, when the teams last met in Miami, the Canes, who were favored by four points, hammered the Panthers by a 51-28 score. Back at Miami, I expect the Canes to have the advantage once again. While the Panthers are 2-3 away from Pittsburgh, the Canes are 4-1 at Miami. Pitt. has been outscored 25.6 to 24 on the road. Miami has outscored teams by a 39 to 14.8 margin here at home. Visiting teams are averaging just 216.8 yards per game here. The Canes destroyed V-Tech last time out and I expect them to carry the momentum into this afternoon's game. 

I'm playing on V-Tech (10* BEST BET). I won with the Hokies in last season's 10-0 win. They were favored by -6.5 or -7 for that one, despite playing on the road. Now, playing at home, we're getting points. With all due respect to Virginia, I believe thats providing us with excellent value on the Hokies. If you just looked at the schedule, you'd see that this is the final game for the 4-6 Hokies, which would mean that they'd have no shot at making a bowl. However, there was an earlier game postponed and V-Tech and Marshall have agreed to a conditional game, which will be played here at Lane Stadium, on Dec. 1st. That means that if V-Tech can win this one, it'd absolutely be looking at bowl eligility. The Hokies have long dominated their instate rival. They'll face a Cavs team which has dropped two if its last three, the lone win coming against Liberty. V-Tech senior Ricky Walker had this to say: "This game is my favorite game of the year. It's nothing like playing those guys. No matter what, they always think they're better than us, and we just keep on winning, and just dominate… at the end of the day we just want to keep that cup in Blacksburg." Everything on the line in the biggest game of the year, expect the Walker and the Hokies to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on NAVY (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Midshipmen have had an extremely difficult schedule. Tulsa is the weakest team that they've faced since September. Their last four games came against the likes of Cincinnati, UCF, Houston and Notre Dame. Those teams are 9-1, 9-0, 7-3 and 10-0. Now, the Midshipmen take a significant step down in class to take on a Tulsa team which is just 2-8. With a rare chance at victory, they won't waste the opportunity. Navy beat Tulsa by double-digits last season. Considering that Tulsa is winless on the road, each of the last four losses coming by double-digits, I'm expecting more of the same Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on FAU (10* BEST BET). The Owls hammered North Texas again last season, after beating the Mean Green by 38 points (69-31) the previous season. Off b2b blowout wins and playing their best football of the season right now, I feel that they're offering us excellent value once again. Thats particularly true with this line opening below three and passing right through that important number. Having put up nearly 1200 yards of total offense their past two games alone, the Owls are oozing with confidence right now. On the other hand, North Texas lost outright, when favored by more than two touchdowns, in its last game. I'll gladly grab the points but I like FAU to win this one outright. 

I'm playing on OHIO (10* MAIN EVENT). Yes, I successfully played against the Bobcats, at Miami, last week. However, I've also won with them this season and I'm coming right back with them here. Even after spotting Miami a 28-7 lead, the Bobcats were never out of it. Here at home, they've been dominant, a perfect 4-0. Their last two games here saw the Bobcats win by a combined score of 101-28. Granted, Buffalo has had an excellent season. Even if the Bobcats beat the Bulls here, its going to be very difficult to catch them in the MAC East. Buffalo's final game is on the road. However, it comes against a weak Bowling Green team. So, the Bulls know that even if lose this one, they're still in pretty good shape. Division implications aside, expect the Bobcats to make a statement, showing that they may finish second in the East but that they can beat any team in the league, at least when playing on their home field.

I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO (10* VIOLATOR). With the line climbing above three, in my opinion, we're getting excellent value with the home underdog. Note that Miami is 12-6 ATS its last 18, when getting points. Note that Ohio will be playing its second straight road game. This marks the third time that the Bobcats played b2b games away from home. In both previous cases, they lost. Off a neutral site game, they lost (but covered) at Cincy the next week. (I won with Ohio that week.) Off a game at Kent State, the Bobcats then lost at NIU. Note that both games were very close, each decided by four or less. Miami won its last game here by a score of 31-6 and lost its previous one by a single points. I like Miami's chances of the outright upset but in a game that may well come down to the wire, I'll happily grab the points. 

I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* NON-CONF GAME OF YEAR). The team from the SEC won last year's "Bulldog Battle" by 36 points. That was at LA Tech, too. With this year's rematch being placed at Miss. State, I'm absolutely expecting another lopsided result. The Bulldogs are 3-0 SU/ATS when facing a team from outside of SEC play, making the most of every non-conf. opportunity. LA Tech is playing the second of b2b road games. They'll face a Miss. State team which is outscoring teams by an average of 35.2 to 10.2 here at home. Their last two games here have been blowout victories over A&M and Auburn. Expect a one-sided affair. 

I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. I had the 'over' in last week's WMU game. So, I wasn't thrilled when QB Wassinick went down in the first quarter. However, Kaleb Eleby quickly put my mind at rest. Eleby completed his first eight passes and finished the game 23-for-28 for 293 yards, two touchdowns and a QB rating of 193.6. While the Broncos still lost, poor QB play wasn't the problem. This week, the Broncos will face Ohio, a team that they beat (29-23) to win the MAC title a couple of years ago. The Broncos did a fantastic job of shutting down the Ohio running game in that one, holding the Bobcats to 37 yards on 22 carries. Overall, they held a commanding edge in total yards and time of possession. The Broncos were favored by more than two TDs (opened at -18, closed at -16.5) for that one, despite the game being played at Ford Field. Of course, the faces are different now and much has changed. However, not enough has changed to warrant such a massive pointspread swing, in my opinion. While I respect the Bobcats (won with them at Cincy) they've only won one of four games away from home and that came by a single point. True, the Broncos got lit up last week. Its also true that the last time that they were off a loss, they responded with a 68-0 win, the start of a 6-game winning streak. They're 2-1 ATS the past couple of seasons off a conference loss and 4-1 ATS when playing a game where the line ranged from -3 to +3. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Thursday. 

I'm playing on STANFORD (10* PAC 12 GOM). The Cougars have been rolling but I expect the Cardinal to finally slow them down on Saturday. I won with the Cardinal in their last game, a road win at ASU. I really like the fact that game was on a Thursday, giving Stanford some extra time for this big showdown. This is a game that Stanford has had circled as the Cougars beat them each of the last two seasons, blowing them out here in 2016. The Cardinal haven't forgotten. While the Cougars are allowing 31.7 ppg on the road this season, the Cardinal are allowing 15.7 pgg at home. Playing at home, where they're 17-8 ATS the last 25 times that the O/U line ranged from 52.5 to 56, expect them to finish on top, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on FAU (10* VIOLATOR). Its been a tough start to the season for the Owls. However, the reality is that they've had an extremely difficult schedule. They've only played three home games and they won all three of them. The four road games came at places like Oklahoma and UCF. A home game against LA Tech, a team the Owls hammered 48-23 last November, figures to be just what the doctor ordered. While the Bulldogs are off a win, note that they're already 0-2 ATS when off a conference victory. Both teams obviously need the win but the Owls arguably need it more. This is an FAU team which absolutely still expects to get to a bowl but one which knows it needs to take care of business in this game to make that goal realistic. Expect a win and cover.

I'm playing on MISSOURI (10* GAME OF MONTH). This game was already going to be very tough for the Tigers to win. However, last week's result will make it even more so. Memphis is off a heart-breaking loss against UCF. The Tigers were up big at halftime, squandered the lead, had a chance to win, only to lose 31-30. As quarterback Brady White said: "This one hurts, for sure. We should've won that game." That very likely killed Memphis' hopes of competing for a division title. Those type of losses often take a toll and I expect that to be the case here. Missouri is off games against Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama, the last two of which came on the road. A break from SEC play will provide a welcome relief. Missouri is already 2-0 SU/ATS as a home favorite this season, winning by 37 and 27. Expect another double-digit win on Saturday afternoon.

I'm playing on STANFORD (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Cardinal had to fight hard to come back to beat Oregon. That victory seemed to take a toll, as they were hammered at Notre Dame the next week. Their undefeated record snapped, they followed it up with another loss, vs Utah, after that. Having had some time off, since those back-to-back losses, I expect the Cardinal to respond with their best effort on Thursday night. Stanford is 7-1 SU (5-2-1 ATS) its last eight as a road favorite. That includes a 3-0-1 ATS mark as a road favorite of three or fewer points. The Cardinal have suffered b2b SU losses (in the same season) twice over the past couple of seasons. Each time, they responded by winning and covering their next game, a 17-10 win at Notre Dame and a 58-34 win against UCLA. Expect them to bounce back with another win and cover Thursday. 

I'm playing on USC (10* GAME OF WEEK). Colorado comes in with the higher ranking but the Trojans are favored for good reason. While all they can do is beat who the teams that they face, a closer look at the Buffaloes' schedule shows that its been very soft. The only true road game was at Nebraska and the Huskers have been a mess. The other games came against Colorado State, UCLA, New Hampshire and Arizona State - none of which have the type of talent that USC does. The Trojans are still undefeated at home and they're off back-to-back victories of their own. Those two wins (vs. Washington State and at Arizona) are both arguably more impressive than anything Colorado has accomplished. The Trojans won at 14 at Colorado this season. Look for the Buffaloes, just 4-9 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range, to come back down to earth.

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* PERS FAV). Since losing its opening game to Stanford, San Diego State has been rolling. The Aztecs have now won four straight, most recently beating Boise, on the blue turf, last Saturday. That was a huge win for them and opened the door for a run at a New Year's Day Bowl. They're not going to let a weaker team like Air Force slow their momentum. Indeed, the Aztecs are 9-1 ATS (10-0 SU) their last 10 against sub-500 teams. While the Falcons are off a win over Navy, they'd lost their previous three. Though they, of course, do it differently, the Falcons are a team which runs the ball. Thats noteworthy as the Aztec defense was absolutely dominant against the Boise ground game.  The Broncos managed just 51 rushing yards on 36 attempts. The Aztecs also successfully slowed the Falcons ground game (220 yards) in winning last season's game. Including that result, the Falcons are just 4-14 ATS their last 18 in conference play. Expect the short turn-around to work in the Aztecs' favor, as they ultimately pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). I believe that this is going to prove a tough spot for Northwestern. The Wildcats very nearly upset Michigan last week. However, after leaving it all on the field, they ended up coming up a little short, Michigan winning 20-17. After coming so close to scoring the monumental upset, only to come up short, I expect them to have trouble focusing on the task at hand here. The Spartans are coming in with payback on their minds, after losing last season's meeting in triple-OT and after the Wildcats upset them here the previous season. The Spartans are highly experienced on both sides of the ball and they haven't forgotten those games. Expect a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE (10* BEST BET). The Cardinals' tough (2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS) start has helped in providing us with excellent value. However, lets not forget that the Cards were underdogs for all three of the games that they dropped, so the losses weren't entirely unexpected. The Jackets are also 2-3 and they have yet to win on the road. In fact, including their losses at USF and Pittsburgh, the Jackets are 0-4 SU/ATS the past four times that they were laying points on the road. The Cards are 25-14 ATS the last 39 times that they were off b2b consecutive SU losses. 

I'm playing on CAL (10* GAME OF YEAR). The Ducks hammered the Bears last season. However, everything sets up for the Bears to get some payback. While the Ducks have indeed won eight of the past nine meetings, the Bears did take the most recent here in Berkeley. You may recall that one, as it was a double-OT (52-49) thriller. 

Speaking of "OT games," I won with the Ducks "over" the total in last Saturday's game against Stanford. (Top rated CFB Totals now 5-0 YTD.) Not only did the game finish comfortably above the total, it served another purpose. It helped knock the wind out of the Ducks. If you only watched the first portion of that game, you would have seen an Oregon team which was dominating. Announcers were proclaiming that "this was a new breed of Duck," one that was now pushing around Stanford, instead of being pushed. In the end, however, the Cardinal still finished on top, a 38-31 comeback OT win. (In case, you missed it, the Ducks were up 24-7. Stanford recovered a fumble with 52 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter to allow for the tying FG to force OT.)

Thats the type of result that can and will take a toll on a team. The Ducks had indeed been playing great and they left it all on the field. Stanford was a team which had crushed them twice in a row and they were so close to settling the score. To get that close, only to come up short, is tough to recover from. Thats particularly true given that the Ducks were thinking "undefeated season" if they could beat Stanford too. Broken dreams are most difficult to overcome when so close to actually happening.

Cal, meanwhile, checks in off a bye week. While the Ducks were involved in a tough physical OT loss, the Bears were resting, watching and game-planning. Not only are they fresh, but they're going to come in confident. The Bears began the season by beating UNC by seven. Next, they went on the road and won at BYU. Thats no small feat when considering that BYU is now 3-1, including road wins at Arizona and Wisconsin. 

This is an experienced Cal team, too; the Bears brought back 18 starters from last season. They've been tough at home in recent seasons and they fully understand the magnitude of this game and the opportunity which is in front of them. The Ducks have struggled on the road in recent seasons and are just 1-4 ATS their last five as a road favorite. I feel the devastating Stanford loss is going to have a big effect and I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* MAIN EVENT). After a horrible start, the Owls got back on track in a big way last time out, going on the road and blowing out Maryland. That'll give them confidence here. Tulsa, on the other hand, has gone the opposite direction, losing its last two. Keep in mind that the Golden Hurricane were only 2-10 last season. While I do believe that they're improved, they haven't improved enough. Temple pulls away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* BEST BET). We're getting excellent value with the Aztecs for a number of reasons. A few of those reasons include: 1. The Sun Devils are 2-0 and off an upset of Michigan State causing bettors to jump on the bandwagon. 2. The Sun Devils are playing with 'revenge' from last year, an angle the betting public typically favors. 3. The Aztecs are without their starting QB. None of those reasons are enough to cause me to believe Arizona State can even win this game, let alone cover a pointspread which has continued to get bigger since its opener. The revenge angle can sometimes be a motivating factor but its not going to come into play for a team celebrating last week's upset and looking ahead to conference play, which I feel makes them ripe for an upset. The Aztecs dominated last year's game on the ground, so the loss of Chapman isn't a huge concern. In fact, they weren't really playing that well with Chapman in the game last week and only pulled away after he went down. Agnew got some much needed game-experience, going 11-for-17. While the Aztecs have won 11 of 14 here, ASU, which was 3-8 on the road the past two seasons, is just 1-4 ATS the past five times it was off two or more consecutive victories. I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on FSU (10* ACC GAME OF YEAR). Off their opening loss against V-Tech, the Noles came out flat against an inferior opponent last week, winning but not covering. They'll be fully "recovered" now though and I expect them to take out their frustrations on the Orange. The Noles have long thrived as small road favorites and they've dominated Syracuse for years. They won 45-14 last time here, while laying -23 points. The Orange have indeed improved, but not by enough. Expect another win and cover for the determined visitors.

I'm playing on RICE (10* BEST BET). This line is far too big, in my opinion. Its an over-reaction to last week's results. Hawaii won big while Rice was blown out. However, a closer look reveals that the Owls won their first game and though they lost big, they still covered. Hawaii does deserve some credit for its 2-0 start. However, now the inexperienced Warriors go from being the big underdog to being the big favorite, a role they're unfamiliar with. Expect the Owls to give them all they can handle. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). The "neutral site" venue is AT&T Stadium which gives the Tigers a slight home field edge, due to crowd support. However, it won't be enough to overcome the advantages which the Hurricanes have working in their favor. The Canes are experienced on both sides of the ball and represent Richt's best team since coming here. The Tigers suffered pretty heavy losses on both sides of the ball. They're learning a new offense after losing last season's QB, top two RB's and top two WR's. Expect more experienced Miami to pull away for a win and cover.

I'm playing on BYU (10* BEST BET). We're getting plenty of points with what I feel is an under-valued and extremely motivated Cougar team. BYU brings back plenty of starters on both sides of the ball and is determined to get rid of the bad taste from last year. While beating Arizona isn't going to be easy, the Wildcats do have a new coach. Sumlin brings an impressive record with him and he's admittedly got plenty work with. success isn't always immediate and I have expect him to have his hands full here. I especially like the matchup of the experience BYU defensive line vs. the inexperienced Arizona offensive line. The Cougars have long had success in season openers and I expect them to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Badgers have won their last 22 opening season Camp Randall games. Those victories have come by an average of 26 points. This season's opener figures to be even more lopsided. At first glance, this might seem like a big number to be laying against a WKU team which was a combined 23-5 in 2015/16. However, the Hilltoppers took a step back last year and this season is likely going to be even tougher. Certainly, it won't start as well. (Last season, the Hilltoppers were -36 point favorites in their opener against Eastern Kentucky. They won by 14.) The Badgers are off a dominant season and return nine starters on offense. They're not going to be stopped, nor will they let up. The Hilltoppers, who return only three starters on offense, aren't equipped to trade punches, or to try and catch up. The Badgers are thinking National Title this season. Expect them to make a statement, kicking things off by destroying their inferior opponent. 

10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR I'm playing on Alabama. I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. Last season, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' For Round 3, I'm backing the Crimson Tide. 

Needless to say, both teams had great seasons. Each had only one loss. For Clemson, that setback came back in mid-October, a shocking upset loss against Syracuse. (The Orange were the worst team in the ACC's Coastal Division this season.) Sure, Clemson lost its QB to injury in that game. However, does anyone really think Alabama would have ever lost to Cuse, regardless of who was behind center?

As you're probably aware, Alabama's loss came much later in the season, as the Tide were defeated by Auburn in their last game. While they may be fortunate to be here at all, based on that loss, I fully expect the Tide to respond with their very best effort. 

Both teams have outstanding defenses. However, I believe that the Tide are better on that side of the ball. They allowed an average of only 11.5 points on the season, a paltry 257.8 yards. Clemson's numbers were close but a little higher. The Tigers allowed 12.8 ppg and 277.9 ypg. On the road, the Tigers allowed 354.5 ypg. Meanwhile, the Tide allowed just 274.8 ypg on the road. The Tide also have an advantage on yards allowed per play. 

While the perception may be that Clemson is superior on offense, the numbers don't back that up. The Tigers averaged a healthy 35.4 ppg and 448.4 ypg. However, the Tide beat them in both areas. Alabama averaged 39.1 and 465.4. 

One of the reasons Alabama lost the game in the Iron Bowl was because of poor health. However, the extended break has given the Tide a chance to recover and they'll be much healthier than they were for Auburn. 

The Tigers are admittedly tough to run against. However, they haven't faced a ground game like this one. I expect the Tide - and their 3-headed rushing attack - to have success on the ground. 

After last year's loss and after failing to cover in both games against Clemson, Nick Saban, who took some heat for not speaking out on Roy Moore, has lost a little of his 'unbeatable' image. Don't buy into that. He's still an amazing coach and he'll have his team ready to go. Expect him to have the last laugh, the Tide taking the 'tiebreaker.'

I'm playing on Penn State. The Nittany Lions come in on a roll and full of confidence. They won each of their final three games by double-digits, including a 66-3 dismantling of Maryland in their most recent game. Including that laugher, the Lions are now a lucrative 16-4 SU/ATS when off two or more consecutive SU victories. During the same span, the Huskies, who closed the season with b2b wins, are just 8-10 ATS two or more consecutive SU victories. With Penn State listed as a small favorite, its worth noting that Washington is 0-4 SU/ATS the last four times that it played a game where the line ranged from -3 to +3. The Huskies have indeed been excellent against the run. However, they haven't seen a back like Saquon Barkley, who averaged 179.5 all purpose yards per game. Look for the Lions to find a way to get Barkley the ball in space, ultimately pulling away for the win and cover. 

10* COTTON BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH. I’m playing on USC. Its true that I won with Ohio State in its last game, 27-21 win over Wisconsin, a game they won by six points. However, I feel that the Buckeyes are over-rated for this one and I expect USC to come in as the 'hungrier' and more focused team. While this is still a "big" bowl game, its definitely not what the Buckeyes were hoping for. With only one loss on their resume, the Buckeyes felt that they should have earned one of four spots in the College Football Playoff. As you know, that didnt happen. As much as they'd like to show everyone that they deserved to be there, I believe the sting of not being chosen is going to take a lot of them. USC, on the other hand, should be happier to be here. While the Buckeyes are admittedly tough on both sides of the ball, I expect the Trojans front seven to cause all sorts of problems. Off five straight wins, the Trojans come in full of confidence. While OSU saw only one game decided by less than six points this season, the Trojans saw five games decided by five or fewer points this season, winning four of those. I expect that "close game" experience to serve them well, as they take this game down to the wire with a great shot at the upset. 

I'm playing on TCU (10* MAIN EVENT). While I respect both coaches and both programs, I like the fact that TCU is playing in its home state. I also believe that the Frogs match up well against the Cardinal. While Stanford has an outstanding running game, one of the Frogs' biggest strengths is their ability to defend the run. Indeed, they ranked #4 in the entire country, in terms of rushing defense. The Frogs are 9-2 SU their last 11 non-conf. games and 7-2 SU their last nine, when off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on IOWA (10* ANNIHILATOR). While the Eagles were a profitable team this season, they're not getting many points here and I feel that they'll ultimately be over-matched. BC averaged 26.2 points on offense, Iowa averaged 28.3. While BC allowed 22.5 ppg, Iowa allowed 19.5.  The Eagles are just 2-3-2 ATS (2-5 SU) their past seven, when the line ranged from +3 to -3. During the same span, the Hawkeyes were 4-2-1 ATS, in the same situation. A 56-14 win at Lincoln, on the Huskers' Senior Day, to close out the season showed how explosive that the Hawkeyes can be and has them full of confidence. I expect them to cover this small number. 

I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). Having won four of five, the Wildcats come in with a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, Bruins' QB Rosen is currently listed as doubtful while the coaching staff is in transition. That has many expecting a big win for the Wildcats. That sentiment, in turn, has created a generously big pointspread. I'm not expecting the Bruins to just roll over and I feel that they're offering excellent value. K-State's last three games were all decided by five or fewer points. Its last four were decided by seven or less. UCLA's last three games were decided by seven or fewer points and its last two were decided by five or less. The Cats were just 2-4 ATS when favored and they're only 5-11-1 ATS in that role the past few seasons. I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on TOLEDO (10* MAIN EVENT). The line came down a little from its opener providing us with value on the favorite. The Mountaineers put up a big number in their last game but I expect them to have trouble keeping up this evening. Toledo scored better than 39 ppg on the road this season. Appalachian State, meanwhile, managed just 26 ppg on the road. Rockets, who have scored nearly 150 combined points their past three, pull away for the double-digit win. 

I'm playing on WYOMING (10* GAME OF WEEK). On Wednesday, Wyoming coach Craig Bohl confirmed that his star QB, Josh Allen would start the Potato Bowl: "Josh and I had a long talk, and Josh is ready to play and start in this football game. He's had several great practices, and so he's in position to be 100 percent." Thats the good news that I'd been waiting for. Allen's a big time talent and he makes the Cowboys a far better team. On defense, led by Andrew Wingard the Cowboys are outstanding. They allowed just 17.8 ppg. While CMU finished the season on an impressive run, I look for the time off to favor what I feel is an under-rated Wyoming team. The fact that Wyoming played here on the Blue Turf (lost but covered) two months ago, should also work in its favor. Cowboys roll. 

I'm playing on BOISE (10* MAIN EVENT). I won with the Ducks in their last game, a 69-10 thrashing of Oregon State in the "Civil War." So, I'm well aware that the Ducks enter the Bowls on a roll. Its important not to over-react from that blowout. First, Oregon State was terrible this season. Second, that was only game. Even factoring in the result, the Ducks have still lost four of their last seven. The Broncos eked out a win in their last game and have now won eight of their past nine. Boise did lose by three points at Washington State earlier in the season. However, that same Washington State team hammered the Ducks by a score of 33-10. Plus, the Broncos had to face the Cougars on the road while the Ducks got to host them. With the Broncos a profitable 26-14-1 ATS their last 41 as underdogs, I'm grabbing the points. 

10* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Central Florida. Memphis went 7-1 in AAC play, while UCF comes in at 12-0 overall, including 8-0 in league play. When these teams met in late September, it was UCF that flattened Memphis 40-13. The Tigers rebounded to win seven straight behind QB Riley Ferguson, who threw for 3,500 yards and had a 32:8 TD:INT this season. The Tigers roll into town averaging 47 PPG, but allowing an average of 453 YPG, which ranks the team 112th in the nation. UCF averages 48.3 PPG, but allows just 399 YPG (including just 72 rushing yards per contest.) Keep your eyes on UCF QB McKenzie Milton, who finished with 3,301 passing yards and a 30:6 TD:INT. The Memphis offense was awesome this season, but the defense leaves something to be desired. UCF destroyed Memphis earlier in the year and I think all signs point to a similar destruction this afternoon. Lay the points, UCF rolls.

10* MAIN EVENT on USC. Stanford was 7-2 in league play and posted a 38-20 win over Notre Dame last Saturday. USC was 8-1 in conference action and most recently held on for a 28-23 victory over UCLA last weekend. When these teams played in early September, it was the Trojans which smashed the Cardinal 42-24. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Stanford has been strong defensively this year overall, allowing just 20 PPG. However, when these teams met in September, USC piled up 623 yards of offense. The Trojans allow just 26 PPG, while posting 489 per contest of their own. USC QB Sam Darnold threw for four TD’s in the victory over the Cardinal in the first matchup this season and I have a hard time seeing Stanford fairing much better this time around either. Lay the points, Trojans roll.

10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on BYU. Both teams have just three wins to their names. BYU comes in off a 16-10 loss to UMass, amassing just 299 total yards. Cougars’ QB Joe Critchlow was 21 of 45 for 257 yards, one TD and four picks. The Warriors can empahtize, as they come into the final game of the year on a four game slide, most recently falling 38-0 at Utah as a ten point dog. In that game Hawaii was outgained 475 to 318. Both teams have more questions than answers as we close the 2017/18 campaign, but note that BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road fav of three points or less, while Hawaii is a miserable 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home dog of three points or less. Hawaii’s pass defense has been atrocious and I like Critchlow to take advantage. Lay the points, BYU rolls.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Mississippi. Ole Miss needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Or, that in fact would be the case if it had not put a self-imposed bowl ban on itself before the season started. Despite that fact though, I look for Ole Miss to push for that sixth victory today. The Runnin Rebels failed to accomplish that in last week’s 31-24 setback to Texas A&M. I’m not calling for the outright upset here, but clearly Mississippi won’t be lacking for motivation today. The Rebels also play with revenge after Mississippi State crushed them 55-20 last season. The Ole Miss defense looked decent last week, giving up just 396 total yards. Its passing offense, led by Jordan Ta-amu, is ranked seventh in the nation. The Bulldogs needed to score 14 unanswered points in the final four minutes to beat Arkansas 28-21 last week. Mississippi State’s defense remains a strength and is a big reason why the team will be playing in a bowl in December. But as mentioned above though, the Rebels won’t be going down without a fight today in their final game of the year. Ole Miss enters averaging 335 passing YPG and I think Ta’amu will keep his team in this one late. Grab the points.

10* CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers need one more win to become bowl eligible and they’ll be risking life and limb today as they try to achieve that, while also snapping an untimely three-game slide. MTSU also needs one more win to become eligible, but it comes in on the other end of the mental spectrum, having won two straight, most recently 35-21 victory at Charlotte. With a much more “winnable” game at home against ODU to finish the campaign, the Blue Raiders could be caught looking ahead and have a letdown here. Last week WKU QB White looked sharp, finishing 28 of 41 for 334 yards, three TD’s and a pick. I look for White to build off that performance and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points as I look for the desperate home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

10* THURSDAY ROAST on Ball State. Buffalo will need to win two straight to become bowl eligible. A game at lowly Ball State is just what the doctor ordered in Game 1. However, with a road game at league-leading Ohio next weekend, I think the Bulls are going to stumble here as they caught looking ahead. I’m not calling for the outright upset or anything, but 2-8 Ball State will look to play spoiler and notch another victory in front of the home town crowd. On paper, clearly the Bulls are the better team. However, there’s no question that the overall situation favors the underdog here (the Bulls are 1-2 ATS in their last three as a road fav.) Grab as many points as you can and expect a competitive affair. Play on Ball State.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Miami Ohio. Miami Ohio needs to win its final two games of the year to become bowl eligible. With this game against 3-7 Eastern Michigan and 2-8 Ball State to close the campaign, the odds are actually in the Redhawks favor. But one thing at a time, up first are the Eagles. EMU has nothing to play for other than spoiler, as it lost for the seventh time in eight games in a 42-30 setback at CMU last Wednesday. The Redhawks come in on the other end of the spectrum, surging towards the finish line after winning for the second time in the last three games in a 24-14 home victory over Akron last Tuesday. Miami Ohio has domianted this series as well, winning nine straight, including a 28-15 road victory last October 29th. The Redhawks are the better team and they’re firing on all cylinders. They also won’t be lacking in motivation. Playing spoiler can only motivate a team so much and I simply don’t see that being enough for the Eagles in the end. Lay the points, Redhawks roll.

10* ANNIHILATOR on Kent State. Kent State is horrible. It’s 2-8 (lost 48-20 to WMU in its latest action.) The only thing that the Golden Flashes have to play for today is pride. Central Michigan is decent, it’s 6-5. The Chips became bowl eligible in last week’s 42-30 win at EMU last week and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Kent State was blown out by WMU last weekend, but it will look to take advantage of a content Chips’ team and try to score the upset in its final home game of the year (at Akron next week.) I’ll point out, that while the Golden Flashes once again struggled offensively last week, the defense was in fact pretty decent, allowing 389 yards and limiting the Broncos to 3 of 15 on third downs (note that four of WMU’s TD’s were defensive.) Grab as many points as you can as Kent State delivers the solid cover with this ample spread.

10* ROAST on Pittsburgh. UNC is 1-8 and has nothing to play for. Playing “spoiler” can only motivate a team so far and I don’t think the Tar Heels are going to muster enough of it to compete with the Panthers, who still seek one last win to become bowl eligible. UNC most recently fell 24-19 to No. 8 Miami last week. Tar Heels’ No. 1 QE Chazz Suratt was injured early and backup Nathan Elliot threw one TD and three picks in his place. The Panthers enter on the other end of the spectrum as they are off a 31-14 victory over Virginia. QB Ben DiNucci had an unspectacular 134 yards, but Pittsburgh looked great defensively and on special teams, as Quadree Anderson returned a 75-yard punt for a TD. The best thing you can say about Tar Heel football this year is that basketball season is just around the corner. I expect UNC to throw in the white towel early in this one. Panthers roll.

10* BLOWOUT on Miami Ohio. Akron needs just one more win to become bowl eligible (5-4), but Miami will need to run the table if it has any shot at a bowl berth. The Zips enter off a 21-20 win over Buffalo, while the Redhawks fell to Ohio 45-28 on Halloween. Note that this is a revenge game for Miami Ohio after it lost 35-13 at Akron last year. Akron is averaging just 331.1 YPG and allowing 444.2. The Zips lost one of their leading playmakers in Warren Ball early in October, but have still managed to find ways to win lately. But I think that changes this weekend. The Redhawks average 392.8 YPG and allows 365.9. QB Billy Bhal was 28 of 51 for 350 yards, three TD’s and two picks last week and I think he’ll have his chances today against this suspect Akron secondary. Both teams need a win, however I think the pressure is on Akron here as it gets caught looking ahead to its game against conference leading Ohio at home next week. Lay the points.

10* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii. A couple of desperate 3-5 teams from the Mountain West collide on Saturday night. Hawaii has lost five of its last six, most recently falling 28-7 at home to SDSU last Saturday. UNLV looks set for a letdown here though after its 26-16 upset win over Fresno State on the road last Saturday. Hawaii holds the all time series lead 12-10, but UNLV has taken two straight, including a nail-biting 41-38 road win last October. Hawaii was unable to contain SDSU’s Rashaad Penny, who had a huge game last weekend. Overall Hawaii ranks 89th in scoring with 25.1 PPG, while ranked 107th in scoring defense in allowing 34.6. Warriors’ QB Dru Brown has 1,976 passing yards and a 13:7 TD:INT. UNLV averages 30 PPG and allows 33.6. Rebels’ QB Armani Rodgers is a poor 1,063 yards with a 5:4 TD:INT (does have 535 rushing yards and six scores on the ground.) But after last weekend’s big win over the Bulldogs, a victory which snapped Fresno State’s perfect conference mark, I believe UNLV has a predictable letdown here. I also believe that Brown can match pace with Rodgers down the stretch. Grab the points.

10* FIST-FIGHT on Utah. Both teams are struggling and each is desperate to reach the six-win mark, as both sit with a record of 4-4 currently. The Utes opened the season with four straight victories, but they’ve now dropped four in a row, most recently a 41-20 setback to Oregon. UCLA is just 2-4 in its last six, most recently succumbing 44-23 to Washington. In that game, QB Drew Rosen left in the third frame with an injury and he’s doubtful for this one (if he does manage to suit up, clearly he’s not going to be at 100%.) UCLA owns the worst run defense in the league, giving up an enormous 307.1 YPG this year. Last week the Huskies posted 333. UCLA backup QB Devon Modster was serviceable in Rosen’s replacement, but clearly he’s going to have his hands full today if he’s forced into the start. Utah can empahthize. Last week the Utes gave up 347 yards to the Ducks on the ground. Utah QB Tyler Huntley was 25 of 43 for 293 yards, two TD’s, but was sacked four times. Utah has problems in all three phases, but UCLA is in serious trouble now with the injury to Rosen. I think this is the perfect opponent for Huntley and the Utes to get untracked against. Utah rolls.

I'm playing on BYU (10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK). Enough is enough. The Cougars badly need a victory and the Spartans should provide them the perfect opportunity to get one. Since playing a 'neutral' site game (not really!) at the Superdome against LSU, the Cougars' home games have come against Utah, Wisconsin and Boise State. Needless to say, all three of those teams are far stronger than SJ State. The Spartans have lost their four road games by an average score of 47 to 13.7 and they've been outgained in those games by an average of 530.7 yards to 350 yards. The Spartans are just 5-11 ATS (1-15 SU) the past 16 times that they were road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Expect the Cougars to take out their frustrations on Saturday afternoon, bouncing back with a convincing blowout win. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Obviously, the Seminoles are not having the type of season that they were hoping for. Prior to the season beginning, few would have expected them to have half as many victories as Boston College, at this stage of the season. This should be an excellent spot for the Noles to get back on track though, while showing the ESPN audience that they're not as bad as their record indicates. Note that FSU is 2-0 SU/ATS against the Eagles the past two seasons, winning by a combined score of 59-7. 

While the Noles have thrived as small road favorites over the years, the Eagles have struggled as small home underdogs. Overall, the Eagles are just 5-12 ATS their last 17 home games. Off their loss vs. Louisville, note the Noles are a perfect 7-0 SU the last seven times that they were off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE (10* BEST BET). With all due respect to Toledo, which has admittedly been playing pretty well, I feel that this pointspread is too high. The Rockets, who could easily get caught looking past the Cardinals ahead to Northern Illinois, have yet to win a road game by more than 20 points. Speaking of not winning by more than 20, note that the Rockets were laying -20 (at Toledo) for last year's game but won by 19. The previous season, when the teams played here, the game was decided by 14 points. While Ball State has struggled of late, it has still won two of its three home games. Last week's home loss came on the heels of a bye and after they'd just played three straight on the road. With no travel in between games, for the first time since a 28-13 victory on 9/13, expect the Cards to show some pride, giving their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on SDSU (10* GAME OF WEEK). I waited to release this selection, as I was anticipating the line to fall. Now that is has, I'm ready to jump on it. The Bulldogs may have been better than the Aztecs last week but that doesn't mean that they're the better team. Even factoriing in last week's results, the Bulldogs are still just 3-8 SU their last 11 October games. During the same stretch, the Aztecs were 10-2 SU in October games, covering the spread in nine of those 10 victories. While the Aztecs are 14-3 their last 17 at home, the Bulldogs are 2-13 their last 15 on the road. The Aztecs, who are allowing a mere 264.7 yards per game in conference play, have beaten the Bulldogs by 14 each of the past two seasons. They've dominated this conference (18-3 21) and I'm expecting them to bounce back with another double-digit victory on Saturday night. 

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO (10* MAIN EVENT). Its true that the Rams have dominated the Lobos in recent seasons. Its also true that New Mexico is coming off an embarrassing 38-0 loss. Those two facts have helped in providing us with very generous line value on the Lobos on Friday night. Note that CSU was only laying -3 the last time it played here. (That one was close the whole way and finished with a final score of 28-21.) Also, keep in mind that the Rams are playing their fourth road game in their past five, a difficult scheduling situation. Additionally, consider that the Rams only beat Nevada by two points last week, despite being a 24-point favorite. Meanwhile, New Mexico is actually an outstanding 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU!) the last six times it was off a conference loss. The Lobos are 2-1 here at home, the lone loss coming by only two points. Last time here? The Lobos hammered Air Force by a 58-38 margin. Expect them to bounce back with a much better effort, en route to AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. While Memphis has the higher rating, I believe Houston, 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS its last five on a Thursday, is favored for good reason. Memphis is just 2-8 ATS the past couple of seasons, off a conference win and 3-9 ATS off b2b SU victories. They're just 15-35 ATS their last 50 lined games, in that situation. After losing by four last season, the Cougars have payback on their minds. Expect them to come away with the victory, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). With last week's upset of Michigan, the Spartans just won their Super Bowl. Off that massive victory, I feel they're going to have trouble producing the same type of intensity for a road game against the Gophers. That'll prove costly though as Minnesota, which is off back-to-back losses, is going to come in hungry. It should be noted that the Spartans are 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites. Meanwhile, during the same span, the Gophers are a perfect 4-0 ATS, when coming off consecutive losses. Thats a combined 10-0 ATS; numbers I expect to improve on Saturday.

I'm playing on CAL (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams have been going in opposite directions. The Cougars have won all six of their games while the Bears are off three straight losses. Those results have helped in providing us with an extremely generous line. Keep in mind that two of Cal's three losses came on the road and that the other was against USC. The Bears covered that one, losing by 10. The Cougs are in unchartered territory. They followed up their upset of USC with a road win at Oregon. Off those huge victories, on a short week and playing their second straight road game - the only time this season that they'll play consecutive games outside the state of Washington - I believe this is going to prove to be a tough spot. Give me all those points with the highly motivated home underdog.

I'm playing on TEXAS STATE (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, the Bobcats still have a way to go. This is a much improved team from the one which finished 2-10 last season though. The Bobcats are far more experienced than they were last year and they've now got a coach in his second season here. On the other hand, I don't believe that the Cajuns are necessarily as strong as they were last season. Thats not surprising, given that they lost their QB, their top RB and their top WR. Yet, last season, the Cajuns were laying only -5.5. True, that game was at Texas State, while this one is at Lafayette. Still, we're now getting a far more generous line to work with. I don't believe the 2-3 Cajuns have shown they deserve to be laying this high a number. Both their wins came by five points or less. The Cajuns are now 5-9 ATS here the past 2+ seasons. They're also 0-2 ATS the last two times that they were favored in the 10.5 to 21 point range. Give me all the points I can get. 

I'm playing on BYU 10* MAIN EVENT. Both these teams are off to disappointing starts to the season; each lost again last week. The Cougars lost 40-24, at Utah State. The Broncos, who were favored by two touchdowns, vs. Virginia, lost 42-23. Playing at home, I expect BYU to be the team which bounces back with an ATS victory. These teams have met each of the past five seasons and the home team has earned the SU victory in each game. The Cougars, who were 4-1 ATS in those games, won the last two meetings here at BYU by scores of 35-24 and 37-20. After they lost by one at Boise last season, grab the points with the revenge-minded Cougars.

I'm playing on NC STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). While I respect the Cardinals, I feel that they're in for a very tough test on Thursday. Off four straight wins, the Wolfpack come in full of confidence. This team has talent on both sides of the ball, one with a win at Tallahassee under its belt. That win over Florida State, its best game of the season, was the only time that NC State has been an underdog this season. 

The Cards are without Jaylen Smith, their top receiver. That didnt cost them in last week's easy game but may prove more costly here. Petrino said this of Smith: "He won't play next week. It's a sad thing. He's been playing really, really well for us, and he's our go-to guy, and he's going to be out for a while."

With last week's non-cover at vs. Murray State, the Cards are just 2-7 ATS in Weeks 5-9 the past 2+ seasons. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on LSU (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Trojans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting hammered at Miss. State a couple of weeks ago, the Tigers strugged with Syracuse last week. They eventually finished off the Orange though, pulling away for a 35-26 win. Having prevailed, that "wakeup call" officially behind them and with four games now under their belt, I expect the Tigers to put together a complete game here. Note that LSU was 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU) in Weeks 5-9 the past two seasons. While Troy has just one win its last 20 games against SEC opponents, LSU is 10-6 ATS (16-0 SU) its last 16 against the Sun Belt. I'm expecting a blowout. 

I'm playing on BYU (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Cougars check in off three straight losses and with an ugly 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) record on the season. Those results have worked in our favor by keeping this line lower than it could have easily been. Keep in mind that the Cougars were laying -17 for last season's game. Granted, that was at BYU. However, the point remains that this line could easily be higher.

The Cougars won last year's game by a a 28-10 margin, by the way. They had a 249-97 edge on the ground, a 26-11 advantage in first downs. The previous year, the Cougars came here to play. Favored by a field goal, they won by a score of 51-28. Once again, BYU had a big edge on the ground, outgaining the Aggies by a 202-74 mark, in terms of rushing yards.

In fairness to BYU, the last three games (LSU, Utah, Wisconsin) have been pretty tough. The Cougars were underdogs in each, so losing them all wasn't a shock. Needless to say, the Aggies represent a considerable step down in class. 

This is BYU's first "true road game;" the Cougars are 7-2 ATS on the road the past couple of seasons. With the Aggies just 3-10 ATS (1-12 SU) as underdogs, during the same stretch, lay the small number and expect the Cougars to "get healthy" on an opponent which they know they can dominate. 

I'm playing on TEXAS (10* MAIN EVENT). Losing to Maryland was NOT the way that the Longhorns wanted to begin the Tom Herman era. I like the way which they've responded though. They crushed (56-0) a weak SJ State team immediately following the Maryland loss. Next, they very nearly upset a strong USC team, losing 27-24. I like the fact that they had some extra time off from that 9/16 game out on the west coast. Now, the start of Big 12 play represents a "fresh start." Laying two touchdowns at the betting window, the Longhorns won last year's meeting by a score of 27-6. While the Longhorns returned 17 starters from that team, the Cyclones only returned 11. Expect superior talent to win out, the Longhorns scoring their first road win/cover under Herman.

I'm playing on TCU (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Cowboys have indeed looked impressive. However, I believe this line will prove to be too high. The Frogs, 7-4 ATS their last 11 as road underdogs in the +10.5 to +14 range, have arguably looked every bit as impressive as their hosts. A 3-0 start has seen them outscore opposing teams by an average score of 49 to 14.3. Averaging more than 500 yards of offense themselves, the Frogs are allowing just 265. A 28-7 blowout at Arkansas shows they can win on the road. They're going to come in full of confidence. They're also going to come in with "payback" on their minds, as OSU embarrassed them (at TCU) last year, a game in which the Frogs were favored. The Frogs are 5-2 ATS their last seven as underdogs. I expect them to give the Cowboys all they can handle here, earning AT LEAST another cover. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* MAIN EVENT). Both teams are off impressive wins. The Utes dropped 54 points on SJ State on Saturday night, improving to 3-0 SU/ATS on the season. Averaging 36.7 points, they've allowed 16 or less in all three games. The Wildcats, who were off a tough loss vs. Houston the previous week, were every bit as dominant as the Utes. They bounced back and destroyed UTEP by a 63-16 margin.

One difference is that Arizona's win came on Friday, as opposed to Utah's Saturday night victory. That means Arizona will be playing on a "normal" week while Utah will play on a "short" one. A day doesn't sound like much but it can indeed be significant.

While Utah (barely) won and covered at BYU, the Utes are still 9-15 ATS the last 24 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. 

The Wildcats are an improved team from the one which lost at Utah last season. They upset the Utes here in 2015, as 5-point underdogs, and I expect them to give them all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on USF (10* ANNIHILATOR). Both teams have had success overall at the betting window in recent seasons. That hasn't been the case so far this year though. Temple is off to an 0-3 ATS (2-1 SU) start. USF earned its first cover last week, improving to 1-2 ATS and 3-0 SU. The home team has won fairly comfortably, each of the last two meetings. Now, the gap between these teams is arguably wider than it has been. USF is loaded with experience and marching towards a New Year's Day bowl. The Bulls also haven't forgotten that these same Owls prevented them from a possible 12-1 season. (The Bulls would finish at 11-2, the only other loss coming vs. Florida State.) The Owls have already shown they can be blown out, losing by 33 at Notre Dame, the only good team they've faced. Payback time on Thursday. 

I'm playing on SD. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). I believe that this is a very tough spot for Stanford. As you may be aware, the Cardinal gave up more than 600 yards (623) in last week's loss. Granted, that was against a very potent USC team and the Aztecs dont have nearly that type of attack. That said, that type of beating figures to have a lingering effect. That being the case and with UCLA up next, it might be hard to focus on the Aztecs. That figures to be a mistake though; SDSU comes in full of confidence, off b2b double-digit wins to start the season. Confidence breeds success. At least it has for this team in the recent past. The Aztecs are 13-2 SU and 11-3 ATS the last 15 times that they were off b2b SU victories. With Stanford just 2-5-1 ATS its last eight, as a road favorite in the -7.5 to -10 range, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on ILLINOIS (10* GAME OF WEEK). (Big 10 Network) It wasn't pretty but the Illini escaped their opener with a win. Often, surviving a tougher than anticipated challenge can be good for a team. I expect that to be the case for the Illini, that close win serving them well this week. While the Hilltoppers have indeed been a dominant team in their conference, they're 0-6 all-time against Big-Ten teams. Now, they're being asked to go on the road and lay points. Yes, the Hilltoppers return their star QB, Mike White. However, he lost a lot of the weapons around him. Receivers Taylor and Norris combined for 180 catches and 31 TDs last season. They've moved on. Likewise for Wales, who ran for 1600 yards last year. Throw in a a few losses on the line and White might not find things quite as easy this week as he often does. Consider also that in addition to the personnel losses around him, White is working with a new coach and new system, playing their first road game. The fact that the Hilltoppers were laying -39 points in their Week 1 game and only won 31-17 supports the idea that they're not going to be as potent this season, at least not initially. They've traditionally struggled in road openers and I expect them to have their hands full the entire way.

I'm playing on OHIO. While the Bobcats played a "cupcake" (Hampton) and Boilermakers played a "powerhouse" (Louisville) I like the fact that Ohio won huge 59-0 a lot more than the way Purdue narrowly lost to the Cardinals. Purdue deserves credit for playing Louisville tough. However, the close loss figures to take a toll on them this week. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Bruins will have payback in their minds. You'll recall that the Aggies beat them (31-24) in OT to open last season. That was at College Station though. Now, the Bruins are the home team. They also figure to be in for a much better year. Of course, after last season's 4-8 record, there's really only one way to go. That said, this is indeed going to be a vastly improved team. Needless to say, the Bruins are desperately going to want to avoid going down the same path as last year. Rosen is surrounded by plenty of weapons and a highly experienced offense. This is his chance to shine in the spotlight - against an Aggie  secondary which often struggled last year. I dont think the Aggies, who may have more important things (Hurricane Harvey and the problems in Texas) on the back of their mind, will be able to keep up. Bruins avenge last year's loss and cover the small number along the way.

I'm playing on OLE MISS (10* GAME OF WEEK). You may recall that the Jaguars were also in the state of Mississippi for their opening game last season. Listed as 28-point underdogs, at Starkville, they won outright 21-20! Just imagine. A middle-tier Sun Belt team comes down and beats you, an SEC team, on your own field. Not the way you want to start a season! This isn't Starkville though and these aren't the Bulldogs. Expect the Rebels to have learned a lesson from that game - and for them to come in looking to get some payback for their state and conference. As Shea Patterson had to say: "We're treating South Alabama like it's Alabama." The Rebels are 13-0 SU and 8-5 ATS their last 13 against the Sun Belt. They're also 12-5 ATS (13-4 SU) their last 17 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56 to 63.5 range. Expect the Rebels to improve on those stats Saturday, the SEC settling the score.

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Tigers are hoping for and expecting a big year. Last season, despite a new coaching staff and having to break in a new QB, the Tigers went 8-5. While they do lose their offensive coordinator, this year's team should be explosive on offense, as they essentially return all their players on that side of the ball. While the Tigers do have some questions on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary, UL Monroe doesn't have the weapons to take advantage. Expect the Tigers to jump on top early, which will ultimately force the Warhawks out of their running game and lead to a lopsided statement blowout.

I'm playing on UMASS 10* ANNIHILATOR. One could make a case for this being the most important game of the Minutemen's entire schedule. This is a team which needs confidence out of the gate and which also almost certainly needs a win in this game, if it wants to entertain thoughts of getting to six wins. I believe the Minutemen are going to come ready to play. They return their QB and have talent at the offensive skill positions. Tight end Adam Breneman ranks near the top of his position. The defense gets a new coordinator but that figures to be a good thing. They're far more experienced on that side of the ball than they were last season. Hawaii is a team which the Minutemen can compete against. Look for a highly motivated effort from the home team, the lumps the Minutemen took last season paying off for them in this game. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA 10* MAIN EVENT. Last year, I took the points with Clemson. The Tigers lost but covered. This year, I'm laying the points with Alabama. Why the change?

While this year's Tigers are off a very impressive win over Ohio State and off another outstanding season, they're no longer undefeated. Last year, they came in with an undefeated record and the swagger/confidence that comes with it. This year's team knows what its like to lose, as it gave up 43 points in a loss against Pittsburgh. (The Panthers were just one of four teams which scored 34 or more against them.)

To their credit, the Tigers rebounded nicely. Still, in the back of their minds, they know that even last year's undefeated team couldn't beat Alabama. Note that last year's Clemson team entere the game against Alabama averageing slightly more yards per game, while also allowing slightly less, than this year's team.

Meanwhile, the Tide are arguably better than ever. Last year's Alabama team had a loss on its resumé. This year's team has crushed every opponent for months. This year's team averages more yards on offense (and more points per game) than last year's team had entering the Clemson game, while also allowing fewer yards and fewer points.

In addition to the Pitt loss, Clemson got seriously tested by Auburn and Florida State as well as both NC State and Troy. The Tigers couldn't beat any of those teams by more than a touchdown. On the other hand, no team has stayed within single digits of the Tide since way back in September. The Tide were 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season; the Tigers were 5-5 ATS.

While the move to release Kiffin was indeed a little controversial, I believe it shows just how serious Saban is about this one. I expect his team to get the message and when the smoke clears, I expect them to deliver another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on WMU 10* BOWL GAME OF YEAR. Getting more than a touchdown at the betting window, I don't feel that the Broncos are getting enough respect. Sure, the schedule was pretty soft. However, this is still a team with a perfect 13-0 record. Winning breeds confidence and this team has plenty of it. Just like a fighter who has never tasted defeat, a team which has never lost gets a feeling of invincibility and that tends to make them even better. Eleven of the Bronco wins came by double-digits.

While Wisconsin will admittedly be the strongest team which they have faced, its worth mentioning that the Broncos did beat a couple of Big-Ten teams (Northwestern and Illinois) along the way. Overall, the Broncos were 4-0 SU/ATS in non-conference games. They're now 11-3 ATS against non-conf. opposition the past few seasons. 

As per usual, the Badgers are a tough physical team. The Broncos know that but they're sick of hearing everyone say that Wisconsin is going to run all over them. WMU senior defensive end Keion Adams had this to say: "We're quick, we're smart. Wisconsin, they haven't necessarily seen a defense like us. Yeah, we're smaller, but at the same time we're fast. So I feel like our 'how' as far as 11 hats to the ball, if they came with energy, came with passion, that'll be the difference-maker."

The Badgers lost their last game, their third defeat on the season. They also had another four games where they won by eight or fewer points. So, thats seven different teams, out of 13 faced, which they've failed to beat my more than eight points. While they weren't in that role often this season, the Broncos are 11-3 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons. I expect the Broncos, who average 43.5 ppg and 496.7 ypg, to give the Badgers all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA 10* GOW. The Huskies have certainly had a great season. I believe that they're going to find out that Alabama is still in a different class though. The Huskies fared well within the Pac-12 but their non-conf. schedule was quite weak and the Pac-12 wasn't particularly strong this season. The one team that did beat the Huskies this season was USC, a team Alabama destroyed by a 52-6 margin. The fact that they haven't been an underdog all season, says something about the Huskies' schedule. The Tide are 9-4 ATS when laying points. The Huskies failed to cover against OSU the only time that they played with two or more week's rest this season. The Tide won and covered at LSU when they did so, not allowing a single point. When the dust clears, I expect there to be no doubt who the superior team was. 

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE 10* BC GOY. The Cards struggled down the stretch. However, this is still a very dangerous team, the same one which absolutely crushed Florida State (63-20) in a game earlier in the season. I believe they're going to be very motivated to prove that they're better than they've shown. Beating LSU would get rid of the bad taste from the last couple of games and make for a successful season. There is no denying that LSU has plenty of talent and the Tigers would obviously also love to close out 2016 with a win. That said, the year overall has been a massive disappointment and they're already looking ahead to bigger things in 2017. Even a victory here won't change that. This was a team that came in thinking it could be the national champion. While I like their chances of the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points with the Cards, who haven't been underdogs all season, and who are 5-3 ATS in that role the past 2+ seasons. 

I'm playing on A&M 10* ME. The Wildcats check in as the hotter team but I feel that the Aggies are favored for good reason. Despite having to contend with an SEC schedule that included the likes of Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Tennessee, the Aggies stats are arguably superior to the Wildcats' stats. Texas A@M scores more points and puts up far more yards, while only allowing slightly more on the other side of the ball. While the Aggies were able to beat both Auburn and Tennesee, the Cats lost to all three of the top teams in their conference. Both teams faced a Pac-12 team early on. The Cats lost to Stanford. The Aggies beat UCLA. Snyder will have his team ready and the Cats are not to be taken lightly. All the same, look for the Aggies to be the last team standing. 

I'm playing on TEMPLE 10* ME. I've won my last few games involving MAC teams, successfully backing Eastern Michigan and Miami Ohio, while also winning with the Ohio/Troy total. None of those MAC teams are in the class of the Owls though. I backed the Owls in their last game and they rewarded me with a 34-10 blowout win over Navy. They've been a covering machine all season, as they've dominated on both sides of the ball. Off six straight double-digit victories, no opponent has stayed within two TDs since mid-October. Off three straight losses, losing by a combined score of 96-39, I don't believe the Demon Deacons are going to be able to match the Owls' confidence or intensity. Wake Forest is decent defensively but Temple is better. Meanwhile, the Owls have a signficant edge on offense. Still not getting quite the respect it deserves, Temple closes an outstanding campaign with yet another blowout win. 

I'm playing on VANDERBILT 10* BB. Both these defenses are pretty good. With an O/U line in the mid 40s, points are expected to be fairly hard to come by. That makes getting a handful of extra points with the surging Commodores pretty attractive. Vanderbilt closed the season with a 38-17 victory over Ole Miss and a 45-34 win over Tennessee. Though they didn't have to face Albamba, no SEC team beat the Commodores by more than single-digits this season. With the exception of an early-season loss at G-Tech, an ACC team that NC State managed to avoid, the Commodores were competitive in every game. They're 6-3 ATS when getting points. The defense has been respectable all season and the offense came to life down the stretch. As for the Wolfpack, the only teams that they beat by more than a TD this season were Syracuse, Wake Forest, Willam and Mary and Old Dominion. Both teams saw six of their games decided by seven or fewer points. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on HAWAII 10 ME. I already liked the Warriors' chances of winning tonight and with this line climbing from its opener, I feel that they're offering very fair value. While I played against them at times (like when they lost 66-3 at Michigan) this season, the Warriors fought hard down the stretch to get here, winning by a point at Fresno State and then beating UMass by six. They bring some positive momentum into the game, with their QB coming off the best game of his career. I believe that the advantage of playing in Hawaii will prove to be signficiant.

The Blue Raiders certainly had a solid season. Their QB hasn't played in quite some time though and they haven't faced nearly the type of opposition that Hawaii has. While the Warriors have faced the likes of Michigan and Boise (as well as SD State and New Mexico) to go along with Pac-12 teams like Cal and Arizona, the Blue Raiders' toughest opponents were Missouri, Vanderbilt and LA Tech. Sure, the Raiders looked good their past couple of games. Those were against Charlotte and FAU though. Their previous two games resulted in double-digit losses against UTSA and Marshall. They lost those games by 20 and 25 points. In fact, the (77-56) win over FAU in the finale was the first time that the Blue Raiders won a game by more than seven points since 10/1. With the Raiders just 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine in December, I'm taking the points.

I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN 10 ME. While I respect Tulsa, I believe this line is generously high. The Golden Hurricane can score points with the best of them. However, they have trouble stopping other teams. Despite their successful overall season, they were outscored by a 36.5 to 36 margin in going 3-3 on the road. Two of their last three games were decided by a field goal or less. Speaking of close games, the Chippewas have seen three of their last four games decided by a touchdown or less. Admittedly, their offense isn't quite as potent as Tulsa's. However, they still averaged better than 400 yards of offense when playing on the road and I expect them to have success against the suspect Tulsa D. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Chippewas were 6-3 ATS off a conference loss and 9-5 ATS when facing a non-conf. opponent. During that same stretch, the Golden Hurricane were only 5-7 ATS in non-conf. action and just 1-4 ATS when favored in the -10.5 to -21 range overall. Before writing off the Chippewas, lets not forget that this team beat Oklahoma State earlier in the season. They had to deal with some injury issues but are healthier now. In what should be a high-scoring affair, I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on TOLEDO 10* PERS FAV. These teams will both be hungry to get to 10 wins for the first time. I feel Toledo will have the advantage. The Rockets lost only two games on the road and those losses came at Western Michigan against a very solid Broncos team and at BYU, by only two points. When playing on the road at Arkansas State, the other team (along with Appalachian State) which dominated the Sun Belt this season, the Rockets won by a score of 31-10. Admittedly, the Mountaineers defense has been stingy. However, the two teams which had some success against them (Miami and Akron scored 45 and 38 points against them) were teams which attacked them through the air. Toledo, which won 48-17 at Akron, and which averages 38.8 ppg compared to the Zips' 27.4 ppg, has the type of offense able to also have success against the Mountaineer defense. QB Logan Woodside has 43 TD against just nine INTs this season, completing 69% of his passes and nearly 4000 yards through the air. Look for the Rockets to finish on top.

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. There are a number of reasons why I like the Aztecs. I like the fact that the Aztecs come in off a win and that they last played two weeks ago. By comparison, the Cougars are off a loss and that came way back on 11/25. Off that loss, disappointed to be here and with their coach having bolted for the greener pastures of Texas, the long layoff figures to impact the Cougars negatively. The Cougars, 0-2 ATS off a conference loss, are 3-6-1 ATS in the favorite role. I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on NAVY. I won with Army when these teams faced each other last season, the Black Knights covering as large underdogs. I also successfully played against Navy just last week. So, some might be surprised to see me back the Midshipmen here. Last week's play was more of a play on Temple than one against Navy. The Owls are rolling and I felt that Navy was going to have trouble against them. Last season's play on Army was a case of grabbing the value, as I felt the line was far too high. Navy, which was laying -21.5 points, only scored 21. Things are different here though as the Midshipmen are laying a touchdown, or less. 

As you likely know, Navy is down to its third string QB, after Worth got injured last game. Last week didn't work out too well for his replacement Zach Abey. We cant really judge him on that performance though. He was thrown into a game unexpectedly, facing a very good defense and he was forced to throw the ball, as Navy was behind. Things will be much different on Saturday and Abey will be able to get back to running a more typical Navy offense.

While much is being made about the fact that Navy doesn't get an extra week (like it normally does) off before this game, keep in mind that the Midshipmen have beaten the likes of Houston and Notre Dame, a team which destroyed Army 44-6 only a month ago, and that they didn't have a bye before either of those wins either. Also, while the Knights do get that extra rest, they're just 12-35 ATS (11-38 SU) the last 47 times they played after a bye. (During that stretch, Navy was 103-68 ATS when playing with six or fewer day's rest.) Even with the QB situation, I feel Navy is again the much stronger team. I expect the Midshipmen to extend their streak of dominance in this series, covering the reasonable number along the way. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE 10* GOW. The Cowboys upset the Aztecs here on 11/19. Don't expect it to happen again. In terms of line value, note that San Diego State was laying -8.5 points for the 11/19 game. Now, we get to play the Aztecs laying less than a touchdown. Even with the earlier loss, they're still 6-3 ATS (7-2 SU) the last nine times that they were listed as road favorites. Both teams can score points. The Aztecs average 36 points, the Cowboys average 38.2. The Aztecs have a considerable advantage on the other side of the ball though. They allow 20.7 points and 318.9 yards per game. The Cowboys, on the other hand, allow 35.5 point and 474.9 yards per game. Over their last three games, the Cowboys are allowing an average of 52.7 points and 577.3 yards. In conference play, they're allowing 491.2 yards per game and 36.4 ppg. Meanwhile, the Aztecs are allowing a mere 17.4 ppg and 296.9 yards. You get the idea. I'm backing the revenge-minded team with the far superior defense.

I'm playing on COLORADO 10* MAIN EVENT. With an 11-1 record and fresh off a 45-17 beatdown of instate rival Washington State in the Apple Cup, the Huskies have had a great year. They're outscoring opponents by a whopping 44.7 to 17.8 margin. That said, I don't feel that they should be laying this many points against a Colorado team which has also enjoyed an excellent season. I successfully backed the Buffaloes in their very first game of the season, a 44-7 blowout of rival Colorado State. At the time, I stated that the offseason offensive changes were likely going to lead to a vastly improved offense. That proved to be accurate as the Buffaloes have averaged 34.7 points, allowing just 18.7 Colorado and Washington both lost to USC, the only "conference loss" for each. (Note that Buffaloes played the Trojans much tougher, as they lost by only four points, at USC. Meawhile, Washington lost by 14, despite playing at home.) Colorado's only other loss came at Michigan and its likely that Washington also would have lost there. So, while Washington does have the better record, those records could well be the same, if both teams had played the same schedule. With the Buffaloes a perfect 4-0 ATS in the underdog role, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on HAWAII 10* GOW. I believe that the Minutemen have packed in their season and that they'll be more interested in "enjoying the island life" than putting in the work necessary to snap their losing skid. UMass is off a 51-9 beating at Provo, the second straight time it gave up more than 50, and hasn't beaten an FBS opponent since hosting Florida International in Week 3 and hasn't beaten anyone on the road all season. Defense has been an ongoing issue, as the Minutemen give up more than 34 points and more than 450 yards per game. While the Minutemen are limping towards the finish, the Warriors snapped their own losing skid last time out. A victory will give them six wins and they should be highly motivated to play well. The Minutemen haven't played at home since late October. Look for the travel and losing to catch up to them here, the Warriors happy to take advantage and kick them while they're down. 

I'm playing on UCONN 10* GOY. If I had a phone, it would have been ringing off the hook after I released this play. People would be asking me a variation of: "How can you release your 'Game Of The Year' on a team which is playing out the string and which is off back-to-back shutout losses?" While its true that the Huskies are off b2b shutout losses, there are a number of reasons why I really like them on Saturday afternoon. 

The Huskies are playing a Tulane team which is also off a shutout loss and which is also playing its final game of the season. While the Huskies have lost five straight, Tulane's skid is even longer. The Green Wave, who have won just three of their past 17 road games, have dropped six in a row overall. 

I'd argue that the Huskies have more talent but thats certainly debatable. Both defenses have been "respectable" while both offenses have been terrible. The Huskies' stats at home are arguably a little better though. While the Huskies have been outscored by an average of 19.3 to 16.2 in going 3-3 at home this season, the Green Wave have been outscored by an average margin of 29.6 to 17, in going 1-4 on the road. 

Its been a long season for both teams. That said, I like the fact that the Huskies have played one less game in November. They'll be playing their third game this month while the Green Wave will be playing their fourth. 

While I've mentioned the stats, in this "type of game," I believe that finding "the more motivated team" is often the single most important factor in determining which team ends up on top. I expect that to be case here and I fully expect it to be the Huskies which are more motivated than their guests. 

Last week was "Senior Day" for Tulane. It was unfortunate for the Green Wave that they had to face Temple, as the Owls are really rolling right now. Either way, Tulane got smoked. The Green Wave hung around for awhile but the Owls ultimately pulled away for a 31-0 blowout; a tough way to say goodbye to 12 seniors. As Tulane head coach Willie Fritz noted: "Congratulations to Temple, they whipped us." Off that blowout loss in the final home game, I believe its going to be difficult for Tulane to "get up" for its final road game.

On the other hand, the Huskies should have no trouble "getting up" for this one. UConn coach Bob Diaco says "he's the guy" for this job and seemingly has the support of both his players and the athletic director. The team had made big steps under him prior to taking a step back this season. He's determined to close the season on a high note and I expect him to have his players feeling the same way. 

Diaco had this to say: "I know exactly what needs to be fixed and I'm going to fix it ... Nothing seems like it is going well on the outside looking in, as a perception standpoint. But I'm here to tell you that's not true."

With no pointspread to worry about, I'm backing what I believe will be the hungrier team. Look for UConn, which Diaco once said "was built to play close games" and which won 8-3 at Tulane last season, to "dig deep" and finish on top. 

I'm playing on IOWA 10* PERS FAV. While I respect the Huskers, I look for homefield to prove the difference on Friday afternoon. After stumbling in back-to-back games, the Hawkeyes have responded in impressive fashion. After beating Michigan, as huge underdogs, two weeks ago, they delivered a 28-0 shutout win at Illinois. Dominant defense and a dynamic duo of running backs, each with more than 850 rushing yards, running behind a very good offensive line. That's a tough combination to beat. Look for the Huskers, who are getting outscored by an average of 30.0 to 17.7 on the road, to find that out. 

I'm playing on TCU 10* BEST. Both these teams lost a game they wanted and needed to win last week. While neither team was impressive, in my opinion, TCU's loss will be easier to bounce back from. The Frogs were hosting a red hot Oklahoma State team. Though they were favored, losing to the Cowboys wasn't exactly "shameful." However, getting blown out 31-6, the most lopsided home loss in 16 years under Patterson, was. Off that type of beatdown, I believe that Patterson will have be able to get his message through, prior to this important game. The Longhorns are off a much different type of loss and I believe that it will be tougher to recover from. Favored my more than 3 TDs against lowly Kansas, the Longhorns lost outright, in OT. Off that loss and now 16-20 here at Texas, its safe to say that Charlie Strong is on the hot-seat. In fact, even a win here may not save his job. (Earlier in the week, the Austin American-Statesman reported that Strong's firing was inevitable, saying of Strong: "He knows what is coming.") Don't expect Patterson's Frogs, 6-2 the last eight times that they were getting points, to have any sympathy. They pounded Texas by a combined 98-17 score the past two seasons. This one figures to be closer, but I look for TCU to finish on top once again. 

I'm playing on A@M 10* ROAST. Both teams were hoping to be in a better spot than they are. Each have lost two of their last three to fall out of the rankings though. With both teams playing on a short week, I like the fact that the Aggies are playing at home and they've already had a chance to 'bounce back' with a win (they beat UTSA last game) though, while the Tigers are still licking their wounds off the Florida loss. While the Tigers are still going to have some success on the ground, the expected absence of Fournette is a blow. Texas A@M defensive end Myles Garrett, who had 4.5 sacks last week, should have the Aggie defense fired up. Last year, at LSU, the Tigers were laying -6.5. The previous season, here at College Station, the Tigers were laying -3. (They won by six.) We're getting a considerably more generous line to work with here and I believe thats providing excellent value. While the Aggies have indeed struggled as favorites, they're 1-1 ATS when getting points, beating Auburn outright and failing to cover vs. Alabama by a point. Meanwhile, the Tigers are only 3-7 ATS their last 10 on the road. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE 10* BLOWOUT GOW. If the Mountaineers are bring the right mindset, which I believe they will, this one has the potential to get ugly. Don't get too excited about the Warhawks' 2-game "winning streak." Those wins came against a pair of teams which are a combined 2-10 in conference play. The Mountaineers are strong on both sides of the ball, much stronger than the Warhawks. While the Warhawks may have played better this month, their defense is still allowing 45.5 ppg on the road, to go along with an ugly 544 yards allowed per game. Combine that with the fact that the offense averages only 18.2 ppg on the road and you can see why UL Monroe has been on the wrong side of a few blowouts. The last two times that the Warhawks played on the road, after also playing on the road the previous week, they lost by a combined score of 109-17. Speaking of blowouts, last year's game saw the the Mountaineers win by a score of 59-14. So, the question becomes less a matter of "are the Mountaineers capable of winning big against this team (we know they are) and more a matter of "how will they respond" to a tough loss against Troy. While that was indeed a tough loss to swallow, I expect the Mountaineers to be determined to bounce back by taking out their frustrations on someone. This is their regular season home finale and I look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on TCU 10* BC. While the Cowboys are on an impressive roll, I expect it to come to an end Saturday afternoon. The Frogs got back on track in a big way in their last game, a 62-22 (confidence-building) dismantling of Baylor. They ran for 431 yards and threw for another 257. They've since had a bye. While they stumbled earlier at WVU, off a bye, they're still an impressive 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven, off a bye. Speaking of "6-1," its also worth mentioning that TCU is 6-1 SU/ATS its last seven at home, when the O/U line was listed at 70 or greater. While the Frogs were resting and preparing, the Cowboys are off a hard-fought 45-44 win over Texas Tech. With that non-cover, they're now 3-6 ATS their last nine in November. It should also be mentioned that they've got a game against hated Oklahoma on deck. The home team has won big each of the past two seasons. Look for another win and cover for the home team here, the Frogs improving to 13-5 their last 18, off a conference win. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI 10* BEST BET. There's a big rivalry between these schools and games are often close. Last year's game was decided by seven points and I won't be surprised if this one also gets decided by a TD or less. While the Bearcats have admittedly had a tough season, they're still fighting hard. This is a chance to beat a rival and to win their final home game, while also giving them five wins heading into the finale at Tulsa. To say that they'll be highly motivated is likely an understatement. While the Bearcats have struggled, Memphis hasn't exactly been dominant either. In fact, they're just 1-6 ATS their last seven games. While we have to go back a number of years, the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 7.5 to 10 range. In a game that could well come down to the wire, I expect them to improve on those stats with at least another cover tonight. 

I'm playing on NEBRASKA 10* GOW. As some of you will recall, I successfully played against the Huskers last week. Off their first loss, a hard-fought setback vs. Wisconsin, and playing the second of b2b difficult road games, I thought the Huskers would be "ripe for a letdown." Sure enough, they lost 62-3. That blowout loss will keep some people off Nebraska this week. That, in turn, has helped to keep this line lower than it would have been otherwise. I expect them to bounce right back with a huge effort though and believe that Minnesota is the the perfect opponent to do so against. The Gophers may have won four straight. However, none of those opponents (or venues) were as dangerous as this one. While the Gophers are 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were off two or more consecutive wins, the Huskers are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were off two or more consecutive losses. Regardless of who is behind center, the Huskers have a very talented offense and should have no trouble moving the ball. I don't believe that the one-dimensional Gophers will be able to keep up. Nebraska won big last year and I expect another double-digit win this evening.

'm playing on ARKANSAS 10* BEST BET. I backed the Razorbacks last week and they rewarded me with a win over Florida. I believe they're offering excellent value once again here. LSU is off a tough loss against archrival Alabama. That loss killed the Tigers' dreams of running the table under interim coach Ed Orgeron. Thats a tough pill to swallow and I believe it'll leave them a little deflated here. After getting destroyed by Auburn, the Razorbacks benefitted from a bye. Coach Bielema made the most of it, making some changes on defense. While its never wise to read too much into a single performance, the changes worked remarkably well; the Razorbacks were dominant defensively against the Gators, allowing a mere 12 yards on the ground. While the Tigers obviously have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, they really struggled on offense last week, the same problem that led to Myles' release. The Razorbacks beat LSU by a 17-0 score the last meeting here, almost exactly two years ago. They also upset them at LSU, almost exactly one year ago. Including that result, they're 12-6 ATS the last 18 times that they were getting points. I expect at least another cover here. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN 10* PERS FAV. The Eagles broke through with a "cover" at Ole Miss last week, putting up more than 400 yards of offense. Returning home and stepping down in class, for a game which they badly need to win, I expect them to follow it up with a blowout win. I say that the Eagles "badly" need the game as they're 4-5 at the moment and need wins to have a shot at a bowl. Their next game is on the road and their final game is against Troy, a team which has currently won six straight. In other words, they need to take advantage here. The Cajuns aren't that good these days and are headed towards a second straight losing season. They've dropped four of their last five, the last two of those losses coming by double-digits. The lone win came vs. Texas State, the worst team in the conference. The fact that both teams are on a short week figures to favor the home team. In my opinion, the Eagles are stronger on both sides of the ball. They're healthier and I expect them to also be hungrier. I'm expecting a double-digit win.