Sports Picks & Predictions

I am playing on ARKANSAS (vs. Texas Tech) as my 10* Personal Favorite play on Saturday. 
One Arkansas headline read that the Razorbacks' "football season is over" this week after losing to Toledo last Saturday. That's pretty much how it felt after a shocking 16-12 loss as three-touchdown favorites but the good news for betting the Hogs this week is they are highly undervalued. 
I don't see Arkansas coming into another game without complete focus this season and that starts with Texas Tech on Saturday. I believe Arkansas has the defense to halt a Red Raiders squad that has to rely on high scoring to get its wins. 
The Razorbacks are allowing an average of just 69.5 rushing yards and just 191.5 passing yards through two games and I think it's going to be a shock to the system for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are piling up an average of 642.5 yards through two games - that's not a typo - and I think the Raiders will run into major trouble as soon as that offense realizes it's not going to breeze through their play book. 
The Razorbacks are 6-0 against the spread in their last six against the Big XII and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. 

I am playing on COLORADO STATE (vs. Colorado) as my 10* Rivalry Best of Best play on Saturday. 
Last week Colorado State was a favorite play of sharp bettors in the sports betting industry and I'm happy to take them this week. This rivalry game is typically hard fought and closely played no matter what the skill level is of these teams and I think you have to look hard at the home underdog here getting more than a field goal early in the week. 
Colorado State played well enough to deserve a win in a 23-20 OT loss to Minnesota last week and I think the Rams will be in a foul mood this week after feeling like they had one stolen. I expect the Rams to take advantage of a Buffs squad that just lost its starting left tackle Jeremy Irwin. I think that is going to leave a very vulnerable junior QB Sefo Liufau, who hasn't thrown for more than 168 yards in either of his games this year for CU. 
I am also wondering if the Buffs may face a bit of a letdown this week on the road. Last week's home win over a weak UMass team snapped a losing streak for CU that goes back to September of last year. I'm not sure they'll be able to keep tempo with a Colorado State team that is 10-1 against the spread in its last 11 non conference games and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games in September.

I am playing on UMASS (vs. Temple) as my Early Best Bet on Saturday. At first this game may look like a no brainer with Temple starting the season with two wins and covered spreads while UMass got smoked in its season opener. But I believe oddsmakers have made a mistake in giving the Minutemen so many points at home here and I am looking to take advantage. The Owls had the benefit of being slated as nearly touchdown underdogs in their first two games but now I think oddsmakers are going the other way by overvaluing them. A big red flag that stands out for me with Temple is that the Owls lost the yardage battle by 261 yards last week in a 34-26 win over Cincinnati. That suggests they were outplayed but still managed the win. Temple was especially outplayed with the passing game last week where they lost that battle by a staggering 346 yards. That's where I feel UMass can really take advantage with senior QB Blake Frohnapfel, who threw for a respectable 225 yards last week and one TD against one INT and UMass actually won the yardage game through the air against Colorado by 82 yards. I'm not sure the Minutemen will win this one, but I think they keep it close with their passing game with home field advantage and I am happily taking the mountain of points. 

At 8 ET Saturday, I’m playing on MICHIGAN STATE (vs Oregon) as my 10* Main Event.

Michigan State returns 14 starters from a solid team last year and I think Sparty will get revenge at home following a 46-27 loss to the Ducks last season. 
The Spartans should have one of the top defenses in the Big Ten and they put it on display last week when Western Michigan managed just 18 rushing yards. I don't feel Oregon is the type of team that can rely on its passing game to win and I think slowing the Ducks on the ground will be a huge factor in helping MSU win and cover here. 
The Spartans are 8-4 against the spread in their last 12 home games so they will have that advantage working for themon Saturday. They will also be facing what appears to be a sloppy defense if Oregon's Week 1 performance is any indicator. The Ducks allowed an astonishing 549 yards to FCS Eastern Washington and that kind of play won't cut it against the Spartans. 

I’m playing on MICHIGAN STATE as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

At 8 ET Saturday, I’m playing on TEXAS (vs Rice) as my 10* Personal Favorite.

After Texas got hammered 38-3 by Notre Dame on Saturday, I think we are seeing a much more favorable line this week against Rice than we would have if Texas had kept that one close. I believe it's a good time to jump on the Longhorns because they are not wasting any time in making changes to improve. 
Head coach Charlie Strong demoted his defensive coordinators early this week and promoted his receivers coach to step up and make the play calls on D. I think we'll see a different result this week against Rice as a result, which is obviously a team that isn't on Notre Dame's talent level. 
I think this Longhorns offense will also see some success against an Owls defense that is in a complete rebuilding year. The defensive line received a total personnel overhaul and I think Texas should be able to control the pace of this game at will at the line of scrimmage. The Rice starting secondary is also completely new and I expect to see Texas bust out of its offensive funk that dates back to last season. I also like that the Horns have covered the spread in five of the last six meetings. 

I’m playing on TEXAS as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

At 7 ET Saturday, I’m playing on OHIO U. (vs Marshall) as my 10* Best Bet.

I was surprised to see Ohio open as an underdog for this game and then more surprised to see bettors fading the Bobcats through the week with their action at sports books. I'll be fading the early public action on this one in a game where I feel Ohio is the better team and playing on home turf, so I'll happily take the points. 
I think oddsmakers are making a little too much of Marshall's victory over Purdue last week. The Thundering Herd still have a large turnover from last season, including at QB, and I don't think one game is enough to call them experienced. Ohio returns a pile of players on both sides of the ball, perhaps most importantly QB Darrius Vick. I think Vick and the Bobcats backfield will be able to rack up some yards against this green Marshall defense that allowed 454 yards against Purdue last week.  
The home team has won and covered the last two meetings between these two teams, which includes a 34-31 win by Ohio two years ago when the Bobcats were set as 7.5-point dogs. I'm expecting a well coached and experienced Bobcats team to take advantage of a Herd defense that needs more time to jell.

I’m playing on OHIO U. as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

At 8:00 ET Monday, I’m playing on VIRGINIA TECH (vs. Ohio State) as my 10* Main Event.

Virginia Tech is once again standing in the way of the Ohio State Buckeyes, having dealt the defending national champs their only blemish in 2014. The Hokies, who were 10-point underdogs when they won 35-21 last fall, are now two-touchdown pups in what many are calling a revenge game for the Buckeyes. That group think has inflated this spread and will likely continue to do so as the weekend progresses, opening up serious value with Virginia Tech. While some are counting on Urban Meyer to erase last year’s loss, we see that stunner as giving the Hokies a massive boost in confidence, having beaten the national champ and holding a physiological edge in the rematch. Frank Beamer always has his defense drum tight, with eight of his 16 returning starters coming back for a stop unit that allowed just over 20 points on 343.8 yards per game. Ohio State enters this game with some turmoil, having lost WR Noah Brown for the season to injury and playing without suspended WR Corey Smith and RBs Jalin Marshall and Dontre Wilson. The Buckeyes are loaded – let’s not get that wrong – but they could be treading down the path of Florida State, which busted bankrolls week after week as the defending national champs, unable to meet the oddsmakers’ lofty expectations.

I’m playing on Virginia Tech as my 10* Main Event Monday.

At 3:00 ET Sunday, I’m playing on MARSHALL (vs. Purdue) as my 10* Roast.

The Thundering Herd host the Purdue Boilermakers on Sunday afternoon. With this line dropping to a -7 on Marshall it's definitely "go time" for backing the home favorite in this game set for battle on Sunday. The Thundering Herd have the much better passing attack in this game and I am projecting them to outgain Purdue by a full football field through the air in this one. The Thundering Herd do have a new QB that they are breaking in this season but all indicators point to him being fully prepared for this season and ready to "literally" hit the ground running in week one. Marshall wants this game badly as it's arguably the toughest team on their schedule this season and the team (and school) is fired up to host a Big Ten school on a Sunday afternoon when this is the only football game being played the entire day. The Boilermakers have lost 8 of their last 9 road openers including 7 in a row and those defeats have come by an average margin of 13 points per game. The last time these teams met was 3 years ago and Purdue won by 10 despite being outgained by nearly 100 yards. The Thundering Herd get some revenge for that defeat Sunday.

I’m playing on MARSHALL as my 10* Roast Sunday.

I’m playing on Alabama as my 10* Game of the Month.

Alabama has received an unusual amount of attention this offseason and not in the way you would think. Things are quiet in Tuscaloosa, even with the Crimson Tide sitting No. 3 in the country. Alabama will wake up the nation with a dominating win over Wisconsin in Week 1, taking on the Badgers at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas Saturday. The Tide stare down a Wisconsin team switching out head coaches again, with Paul Chryst taking over. Reports from Wisconsin’s summer sessions stated that the offense was having a tough time adjusting to Chryst’s playbook. The questions for Alabama this season revolve around its quarterback spot, but there is no doubt the Crimson Tide defense will be on par with past seasons. Nick Saban brings back eight defensive starters from last season, a squad that ranked fourth in rushing defense (102.43 yards against) and sixth in points allowed (18.4 ppg). If Alabama wasn’t on the tip of everyone’s tongue when it came to the national title conversation, the Tide will be following this one-sided win over Wisconsin in Week 1.

I’m playing on Alabama as my 10* Game of the Month Saturday.

I am playing on TEMPLE.  Last year’s 30-13 game was much closer than the score indicated and I think this year Temple gives Penn State a scare and keeps this game very close.  The Owls return most of their starters from a team last year that made huge strides and kept things to a score of 6-3 at the half at Beaver Stadium. The Owls finished the season with a .500 record and they made for a respectable bet down the final stretch of the season at 3-2 against the spread.  Temple needs to find a way to stall Penn State’s rushing game, which racked up over 250 yards in last year’s meeting and I think we’ll see that happen with all 11 starters returning from what was a top 20 defense last season.  The Owls also return seven players on the offensive line with starting experience, so I expect to see a much better passing game from quarterback P.J. Walker  this season. I think Penn State will be a little surprised in this matchup and I like the home side getting the points here.  10* Afternoon Best Bet 

I am playing on COLORADO. This marks my first 10-star play of the college football season and I think the Buffaloes get the job done against an inferior Hawaii team.  The Buffaloes have had a bit of a rough go since moving to the Pac-12 in 2011 but I think they will jump out to great start to the season, thanks mostly to the offense.  Junior quarterback Sefo Liufau returns (28 touchdowns, 15 interceptions in 2014) along with his favorite receiver Nelson Spruce, who finished tops in the Pac-12 in receptions last year. I also feel the run game should be stronger this year after a bit of a disappointing season last year.  Jim Leavitt is the new D coordinator and that should help a defense that pretty much can't get worse than 2014. It will help starting against a Mountain West opponent that many are predicting to finish near the bottom of the Mountain West Conference this season. Hawaii also failed to cover the spread in its final 10 games last year (0-8-1 ATS) and I don't even think home field can help the Warriors here. 10* Friday Feast

I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Bowl Game of the year Friday.

The Bruins meet the Big 12’s Kansas State Wildcats in San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl on Jan. 2. Both teams come in with nine wins but the Wildcats have been a completely different team away from Manhattan this season.

Kansas State’s defense is giving up an average of 31.4 points on 484.4 yards per game on the road – compared to just 14.7 points on 269.8 yards against at home. While this is technically a neutral-site game, that two-faced trend should have UCLA’s potent offense licking its chops.

The Bruins have one of the top passers in the country in junior QB Brett Hundley, who has been the driving force behind the 22nd-ranked offense in the country (467.9 yards per game). UCLA has a balanced playbook, passing the ball on just 46.43 percent of its plays, and turning lose an underrated rushing attack that carried the ball for 4.62 yards per attempt – second in the Pac-12.

The Bruins have some very talented players on the other side of the ball, especially at linebacker. Their 3-4 defensive set allows those standouts to shine. UCLA doesn’t give up anything deep – ranked second in the conference with the fewest plays of 20-plus yards – and will be tough to move the chains on when it comes to third down. UCLA’s opponents converted on third down just 40 percent of the time – something KSU is used to doing against softer Big 12 defenses this season.

The Wildcats’ two-faced defense on the road and the Bruins' balanced scoring attack is why I’m playing on UCLA as my 10* Best of the Best Friday.

I am playing on MISSISSIPPI STATE. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen said if his team could pick its bowl prior to the season, the Orange Bowl would’ve been their No. 1 choice and I think we’re going to see the best effort of the season from Mississippi State in Miami.

The Bulldogs’ losses came against the top team in the country, Alabama, and against what I feel is an underrated Ole Miss team. Mississippi State could very well be in the playoff picture and I think they will be way too much for Georgia Tech in this one.

The Yellow Jackets rely on their running game in the triple option offense and though Miss State didn’t have the most incredible defensive numbers, I think the Bulldogs have the speed and size to prevent Georgia Tech from getting to the outside on them and finding their holes.  The Bulldogs only allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season.

Teams also seem to do much better against Georgia Tech when they have the extra time to prepare. The Bees are 1-5 in bowl games under head coach Paul Johnson and they average just 14.8 points and 317.3 yards per game in those contests.

Georgia Tech's offense also enters this game without its top receiver, DeAndre Smelter, who tore his ACL and was lost for the season Nov. 29. Smelter was a great pass catcher for GT but was also a great blocker down field and is a huge loss for the Yellow Jackets.

When you put it all together, I just don’t think Georgia Tech has enough to cover against MSU. The Bulldogs own the ninth best total offense in the nation with over 500 yards per game. They can beat you on the ground, where they rank 20th in the country, and QB Dak Prescott is more than happy to air it out too, with almost 3,000 yards passing this season. Mississippi State ranks 16th in the nation in scoring offense with 37.6 points per game, which is why I will happily lay the points here. 10* New Year’s Even Personal Favorite 

I am playing on OLE MISS. I know a lot of folks are paying attention to the fireworks offense of TCU but there are a lot of reasons I like the Rebels in this one.

For starters, I think Ole Miss comes into this game in a much better frame of mind than the Horned Frogs. TCU is still licking its wounds after being left off the list of playoff-bound teams, despite closing the season by smashing Iowa State, which is what many felt it needed to do to get in. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is thrilled to be getting a New Year’s Eve bowl game after fighting its way to just three losses this season in the best conference in the country.

The Rebels are coming off  their best win of the season, a 31-17 victory over Mississippi State, in which the Rebels controlled the game from start to finish. That was a much needed boost of confidence for Ole Miss, who had struggled to three losses in four games prior to that game.

I think a little too much can be made of those losses, which is why the Rebels aren’t favored here. They lost by a combined seven points to LSU and Auburn and this is the SEC after all. The loss to Arkansas was against a much improved team that has a record that isn’t really telling the truth right now.

The Rebels own the best scoring defense in the country with a stifling 13.6 points against per game.  I typically like defense over offense and when we’re talking about the best in the nation in the best conference in the nation, this isn’t really a tough pick for me.

Ole Miss can also score with an average of over 30 points and over 440 yards per game. The Rebels have won six straight bowl games and are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five postseason contests.

To give just one more reason I really like the Rebs here is that they’ve already played in the Georgia Dome this season, where they beat Boise State 35-13 in their season opener. They covered the 9.5-point spread in that one and I believe they’ll be 2-0 against the number in Atlanta this year by the time this game is over. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. I like the Irish here largely because they’ve decided to change up their game plan, a much needed move after they lost their last four games to close out the regular season.

Coach Brian Kelly announced he’ll be playing both Everett Golson and Malik Zaire at QB in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. Golson was the starter for all 12 games this year and is no doubt a talented QB, but he became a turnover machine and coughed the ball up 22 times season including eight lost fumbles.

That’s just way too often to be handing the ball over to the opposition and many of those decisions came from poor decision making with Golson trying to manufacture too much under pressure or on broken plays. Zaire brings an added rushing threat and that’s good because the Irish will need to find ways to keep an LSU defense guessing. LSU ranks eighth this season in total defense.

The Tigers don’t, however, have a fabulous offense and that’s another big reason I think Notre Dame can keep this one close. The Tigers rely almost completely on running the football and own the 114th ranked passing attack in the nation.

Notre Dame doesn’t have the best defense in the country but if it can focus on one dimension, the Irish can load the box and slow LSU enough to cover the spread. The Domers possess an opportunistic secondary and they picked off 16 passes this year and may be able to get a couple more if LSU starts forcing throws.

I don’t expect this one to be the prettiest of bowl games and in those cases I tend to really like the underdog and that’s no different here, especially with the number of points Notre Dame is getting. 10* Music City Bowl Best Bet

I am playing on NEBRASKA. I think the Cornhuskers are getting a few extra points here because their coach, Bo Pelini, was fired at the end of the year. But I see two pretty evenly matched squads here and I think that storyline is a little overvalued so I’m taking the points.

Nebraska will turn to Barney Cotton in the interim to coach the team before Mike Riley takes over after leaving Oregon State to take the job. Cotton has been coaching with the team for eight years and was previously an offensive lineman there and I think he’ll have this team inspired to beat USC. It wasn’t a graceful split between Pelini and Nebraska and several players spoke out in support of their coach on social media. I believe they’ll be determined to finish the year with a win as Pelini’s team.

The Huskers have a versatile QB in Tommy Armstrong Jr., whom I feel will give USC fits. The Trojans suffered their worst loss of the season against UCLA’s Brett Hundley, a dual-threat QB who threw for three TDs and rushed for another against USC. Armstrong passed for 2,314 yards and 19 touchdowns this year and rushed for 664 yards and five more TDs and led Nebraska to being the No. 13 scoring offense in the nation this year.  

USC can score too but what I like that the strength of the USC offense - it’s passing game - will go up against the strength of Nebraska’s defense.  USC has the 15th best passing attack in the nation but Nebraska owns the third-best passing efficiency defense in the country.

I believe oddsmakers have set this one too high and it’s definitely possible that the Huskers could win this game in their third trip to the Holiday Bowl since 2009. 10* Saturday Main Event

I am playing on ARIZONA STATE.  The Sun Devils own the higher scoring offense, they have a much shorter trip to the Sun Bowl, they play in the better conference and they’ll have the best playmaker on the field for this game. 
Arizona State averages 37 points per game, which ranks a respectable 17th in the nation and this team tends to score by airing it out. The Sun Devils toss it for 276 yards per game and rank 16th in the nation in red zone offense so once they get close, they tend to get their points. 
It’s comforting for any QB to have a running back like D.J. Foster on his squad, who is the only RB in the nation with over 1,000 rushing and over 646 receiving yards this season.  Even when Duke is able to slow down the ground assault, the Blue Devils will have Foster to contend with. 
Perhaps the biggest reason I like Arizona State though is that this team owns a playmaking defense. The numbers, in terms of points against and yards against, aren’t the best but this team comes up big when it needs to. ASU tied for the Pac-12 lead with 13 interceptions this season, which is a huge reason the Sun Devils own the sixth-best turnover margin in FBS. They also rank 24th in red zone defense, so we may see this defense bend a little but it finds a way not to break. 
Duke has a long way to travel for a very tough matchup and I don’t believe the Blue Devils have the squad to cover this number. 10* Personal Favorite

I am going with the better quarterback in this game and in this case it also happens to be one of the best in the nation in Jacoby Brissett for the Wolfpack.   Brissett is one of three quarterbacks in the nation with 20 or more passing touchdowns, 300 or more rushing yards and five interceptions or fewer. The junior also ran for three touchdowns and I think his dual threat ability will keep this UCF defense on its heels.  The Pack finished the season with three wins over their final four games and they lined bettors' pockets with four covers over their last five games. They allowed just 20 points combined in their final two games, both wins, and won the yardage battles in both those games by over 200 yards.  For UCF, this bowl game isn't just a step down from the Fiesta Bowl it played in and won last year, it's a whole flight of stairs down, and you have to wonder a little about the motivational factor. I can't help but think the Knights already reached the apex of their season when they beat ECU on a now infamous last-second Hail Mary to claim a share of the AAC title.  

NC State has shown flashes of brilliance this year – like owning a 24-7 lead over Florida State before ultimately losing that game – and I think we’ll see more of that Wolfpack team the day after Christmas in the Bitcoin St. Pete’s Bowl.  10* Best Bet

I am playing  on FLORIDA STATE. All the Seminoles ever seem to do is win and their winning streak is now at a legendary 28 games. I believe their streak will continue on Saturday in the ACC Championship game and they’ll grab the money at the betting window to go along with it. 
Florida State isn’t the best bet in the nation this year at just 3-9 against the spread but the defending national champion Seminoles also saw a pile of inflated spreads. It’s no coincidence that in two of the three games they covered, the spread was set at less than a touchdown (-1.5 vs. Miami and -3.5 vs. Louisville).
The number is set below a touchdown once again this Saturday against the Yellow Jackets and that bodes well for the Seminoles. The Noles have covered the spread when the number is set at less than a TD in their last five tries going back to the 2011 season. 
We all know about the clutch play of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston this season, but another reason I really like Florida State here is because of defensive coordinator Charles Kelly. Kelly is intimately familiar with Georgia Tech’s triple option offense after serving under Paul Johnson from 2008 to 2012. The Noles beat Citadel – the only other triple option offense they’ve faced this season – 37-12 while not allowing a rushing TD in the game. 
Florida State also ranks seventh in the nation in red zone defense while Georgia Tech ranks a lowly 90th in red zone offense, one of the key mismatches in this game that may be overlooked by many.  
Georgia Tech will also be without its top receiver this Saturday, another reason I like Florida State.  DeAndre Smelter tore his ACL last game against Georgia and will be gone for the remainder of the season. 
Smelter earned 715 yards receiving and had seven TDs this season but might be missed even more as an excellent downfield blocker. The injury is a huge blow for the Yellow Jackets and is a key reason why I see Florida State pulling away for the win and cover. 10* Conf. Championship Best Of Best - Florida State 

I am playing on TULANE. At first it may appear like Tulane doesn’t have much to play for, but this will be Senior Day for the Green Wave and all signs are pointing to a strong effort. 
"I told the kids, you want to send the seniors out the best way you can because these seniors have been awesomely outstanding," said an upbeat sounding Tulane coach Curtis Johnson at his weekly press conference.
Johnson is in transition mode at Tulane, where he’s trying to build a program of winning with a change in attitude. This young offense is still making strides and players know they are still fighting for starting spots next season. 
That means Tulane is going to be a stiffer challenge than Temple would probably like with the Owls needing a win to become bowl eligible at 5-6 this season. All the pressure sits squarely on Temple, who has scored just 32 points over its past three games while committing nine turnovers. The Owls coughed up four fumbles over that stretch and averaged just 271 yards of offense. 
Temple picked a bad time to play its worst football of the season and I’m not so sure the Owls shouldn’t be the ones getting the points in this game.  10* Best Bet

 I am playing on IOWA STATE. I feel the Cyclones are getting way too many points from oddsmakers here and it makes sense to take the Cyclones in a spot where most bettors will be shying away.  The Cyclones are the last place team in the Big 12 while TCU could manage to squeak its way into a playoff position if it has a monstrous win over Iowa State. I feel that intangible factor has added a generous helping of added points to this pointspread like an extra helping of mashed potatoes on last week’s Thanksgiving dinner plate.  The Cyclones offense is actually playing its best football of the season with 55 points over their last two games. They racked up close to 1,000 yards of offense combined in those efforts against WVU and Texas Tech and I believe they’re going to find a way to get their points again this Saturday.  TCU will score too – it always does - but I feel the Horned Frogs may lack a little bit of focus in this game and could be more concerned with winning pretty for the playoff committee than simply winning. That works in our favor here.  Iowa State has covered the last two meetings with the Horned Frogs and I believe they’ll make it a third in a row on Saturday with so many points to work with from the sportsbooks. 9* Breakfast Club  

I am playing on EAST CAROLINA. The Pirates have the benefit of playing on home field on Senior Night for this nationally televised contest on ESPN and I think the crowd will help ECU maintain its perfect record on home soil this season. 
The Pirates are 5-0 at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium this year and they’ve won by an average of 22 points against FBS opponents at home and by no fewer than 10 in any of those games. The AAC’s best offense plays even better at home than overall this year, where ECU averages over 600 yards of offense including over 400 yards passing. The Pirates also average nearly nine more points at home (46.4) than when you throw their road games into the mix (37.8). 
UCF, meanwhile, has a sputtering offense on the road this season where it averages just 312 yards and 18 points per game. The Knights scored 27.8 points per game on the season overall and when you compare those numbers  to their road scoring, it’s not much of a surprise their only two conference losses came away from home this season. 
UCF has the best defense in the AAC but in this case I think offense will prevail. Senior quarterback Shane Carden  ranks third in the nation in passing yards per game and will be motivated to finish an outstanding career at ECU in style. 10* Thursday Night Main Event 

I am playing on ALABAMA. If I were to run down all the impressive numbers the Crimson Tide possess, you’d have to clear your evening schedule, pull up a couch and get comfortable. 
To name just a few, they rank  fifth in the nation in total defense, second in rushing defense, second in scoring defense, 16th in team passing efficiency and in the top 11 in both third and fourth-down conversion percentage.  
There is a reason Bama is ranked No. 1 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. 
The only reason the Tide’s numbers on offense aren’t quite as blow-you-away as the stats on defense is because they spread the ball around so much. Auburn defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson said this week that Lane Kiffin has “a toy box full of toys” on offense and they get “everybody the ball.” 
That’s especially scary for a Tigers defense that enters the Iron Bowl after allowing 30 points or more in five straight games against FBS competition, a streak that leaves a stain so bad, it’s never been seen before in school history. 
Now they face an Alabama team that has won 15 straight games at Bryant-Denny Stadium, which ties for the nation’s longest home winning streak with Baylor. Bama is plowing the field for 42.9 points per game at home this season, but what I love even more is they are holding opponents to ridiculous 58.4 yards rushing at home. 
Auburn absolutely needs to get its run game going to have any prayer of covering, which ranks tops in the SEC with 266 yards per game. But I just don’t see that happening against Alabama. 10* Main Event - Alabama 

FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE 
I am playing on FLORIDA STATE. Despite the criticism the Seminoles have faced for their slow starts this season, they’re winning by an average of 13.3 points per game that’s plenty to cover the spread for this week’s game against the Gators. 
Oddsmakers usually get it right in this series and the favorite has covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings. I think Florida State’s offense will simply be too much to for the Gators to handle here and we’ll see the Noles take their fourth win and cover in the last five meetings. 
Florida State brings the No. 12 passing offense into its final game of the regular season – the same one that lit up the Gators for 327 yards and three TDs through the air last year in a 37-7 victory. Florida couldn’t even manage to cover the four-touchdown spread in that game. 
On defense, the Seminoles don’t have a lot of flashy numbers to throw around but this team gets it done when it counts. They own the No. 9 red zone defense in the country, the No. 8 red zone offense and the 12th best 4th-down conversion defense. 
What I also like about the Seminoles heading into Saturday is they are still playing like they have a bone to pick. They are ranked third in the College Football Playoff Rankings, even though they are the defending national champs and undefeated, while the two teams ahead of them each have a loss on their records. 
Florida State likely also hasn’t forgotten that the last team to beat them was the Gators – two years ago. 10* Non-Conference Best of Best Florida State

I am playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal have had UCLA’s number recently with wins in the last six meetings while they covered the spread in five of those. 
All the pressure sits squarely on UCLA and the Bruins have one eye on the Pac-12 Championship Game after beating USC for the third straight year last week in a monstrous win for the school. UCLA’s sensational dual threat QB Brett Hundley proved he’s already looking ahead by indicating in an interview with Jim Rome this week he likely won’t return to UCLA for his senior season. 
Stanford is a physical team that owns the best defense by far in the Pac-12 this season and for those reasons, it is about the last team you want to see if you are looking ahead – or behind for that matter, which could be the case here. The Cardinal rank in the top 10 in the nation in total defense, passing efficiency defense and scoring defense. Only Oregon and Arizona State have scored more than 17 points against them in regulation time in Pac-12 play this season. 
The Cardinal are also feeling confident on offense after scoring 38 in a win over Cal last week. Remound Wright rushed for four touchdowns to help the Cardinal match their highest point total of the season in conference play. 
Another factor I like in what I anticipate to be a close game is Stanford owns the No. 1 punt return unit in the entire nation. With a stout defense and a strong punt return unit, the offense could be working with favorable field position against this unfocused Bruins team. 10* Best Bet – Stanford

I am playing on UCLA. The Bruins control their own destiny in winning their first conference championship since 1998 and I believe they’ll get the win and cover at home against USC on Saturday. 
I feel the Bruins will grab their third straight victory over USC because I believe they’re the better coached team with a better quarterback. UCLA has been beating opponents this year by however it needs to using the nation’s No. 17 overall offense to win through the air or with a sturdy rushing game, depending on what the defense gives them. 
Case in point is UCLA beat Arizona 17-7 two games ago by running the ball 59 times for 271 yards. The Bruins controlled possession and used a slower tempo than what we see normally from them. Then last week, QB Brett Hundley was back to airing it out and went 29-of-36 for 302 yards and two TD passes in a 44-30 win over Washington. 
Hundley is one of the best quarterbacks in UCLA history – not to mention in the nation this season - who can beat you with his legs or his arm and doesn’t mind changing up the game plan to get the ‘W’. He and a very solid UCLA offensive line are the reasons why the Bruins own the No. 1 red zone offense in the entire country this season. 
UCLA comes into this game off a bye week, so the Bruins are well rested and are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games coming off a bye. I don’t think the Trojans will be able to stop them and I anticipate we’ll see the Bruins earn their third straight win and cover against their city rivals. 10* Saturday Main Event

OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR  I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. I believe oddsmakers have inflated this spread way too much for a Baylor team that’s trendy to cheer for right now against an Oklahoma State team that many are loving to criticize right now.  While the Cowboys have been underdogs this season, they haven’t been  underdogs of within two touchdowns of this week’s number and I feel they’re going to give Baylor an effort that may surprise some.  What I like is that there is no panic in the Cowboys, which is essential because head coach Mike Gundy knows many of his team’s offensive challenges come from a young offensive line that will take time to develop.  “I’m not sure anger and frustration is a positive resource for improvement,” a calm Gundy told reporters after his team’s fourth straight loss last week.  Gundy has managed to keep the focus on him this week also, which has turned some attention away from his struggling units on the field. Oklahoma State legend Boone Pickens said this week that he cheers for the Cowboys and “I don’t care who coaches ‘em”. That has everyone in Stillwater talking about an inferred snub of their coach and it means his players aren’t reading about how bad they are in every local news story.  Gundy has been a master in the past of getting his players to pull for him and I believe that’s what will happen on Saturday in a spot where  oddsmakers are being very generous with the points. 9* Saturday Shocker

I am playing on ARIZONA. The Wildcats still have hopes of winning the Pac-12 South and I like that motivator, among other things, to propel them to a win on Saturday while preventing them from looking ahead to state rival Arizona State in their season finale. 
Arizona pulled out a 27-26 win over Washington last week by the skin of its teeth and I love that the team went right back to work the next day to sort out the offensive troubles it ran into during the game. 
Head coach Rich Rodriguez hauled his QB and receivers into the film room before practice on Sunday to get the Wildcats’ normally prolific passing game straightened out. 
“It wasn’t really enjoyable for them or for me,” Rodriquez told the Airzona Daily Star this week. “I told them that my expectations are so much higher for them than anyone else’s. We owe it to each other to be as sound and efficient and clean as far as doing your assignments as best as possible.” 
I like the Wildcats to be refocused again this Saturday, especially against a Utah team they out-match statistically. Arizona brings the nation’s No. 14 passing defense to go up against the Utes’ 87th ranked passing defense, which is where I believe Arizona will really pull away in this one. 
Utah has somehow managed to cover the spread in six of its last eight games despite the fact the Utes lost the yardage battle in all eight of those games. That’s not something you see very often in pro or college football and I think the Utes’ luck runs out this Saturday against a very solid Wildcats team – especially considering Utah is giving away points this week where they were underdogs in six of their past eight games.  10* Saturday Afternoon Best Bet

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. The Irish have won and covered the spread in four straight Senior Day games and I believe they’ll make it a fifth in a row on Saturday during the school’s first game ever against Louisville. 
Notre Dame is 5-1 at home this year and the school always has the benefit of an especially electric home crowd for their final home game of the season. 
Another problem I see for the Cardinals is they’re a team that prefers to win with tough defense this year and I don’t feel they’ll be able to slow down a Notre Dame offense that has been held to fewer than 31 points only twice and fewer than 27 points just once.  The Irish have also been at their most prolific on offense over their past three games where they averaged 40 points and over 500 yards. 
If this game does turn into a high scoring affair, Louisville is going to have to try to keep up without its No. 1 quarterback, Will Gardner. Gardner was lost for the season last week to a knee injury and freshman Reggie Bonnafon will be left to man the offense. 
Bonnafon goes up against an opportunistic Irish defense that has 15 interceptions this year, which ranks 10th in the country. I won’t be surprised to see the Louisville QB cough up at least one or two picks as a freshman playing in the overwhelming atmosphere of South Bend for the first time. 
Notre Dame is 2-1 straight up and against the spread this season against ACC teams with the lone loss coming against No. 1 ranked Florida State. 10* Saturday Afternoon Personal Favorite

I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Last week I successfully faded Duke by releasing a play on Virginia Tech and I believe the Blue Devils are laying too many points once again this week in their annual Tobacco Road showdown.

Besides having a dangerous offense that ranks 23rd in the nation in scoring, UNC is a team that causes turnovers and I feel that turnovers are going to be a huge factor in this game. The Tar Heels have recovered nine fumbles and picked off 11 passes this season and have forced at least one turnover in every game they’ve played.

Duke, meanwhile, is coming off its worst turnover performance of the season after coughing the ball up three times against Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils seemingly fell apart in every aspect against the Hokies including missing two field goals by a perfect field goal kicker this season and they gave up four sacks after giving up just four all season combined.

They won’t get away with more sloppy play against a UNC team that is playing its best football of the year with three wins in its last four games. The Heels also have a ton of motivation for this game. A win Thursday night would secure bowl eligibility for them and end arch rival Duke’s hopes of winning the ACC Coastal Division.  10* Thursday Best Bet - UNC  

I am playing on WEST VIRGINIA. I feel the Mountaineers are being a little undervalued here by oddsmakers Thursday night after two straight losses.

Those losses were to a Big-12 leading TCU squad on a last-second field goal and to a vastly improved Texas team that faced the Mountaineers while I believe they were facing a bit of a hangover from the TCU loss.

WVU is still a very good team despite the losses and I believe they’ll be propelled by an incredible home atmosphere on Senior Night in front of a national TV audience. The Mountaineers have used a bye week to shake off the sting of the two-game slide and to get healthy while preparing for another tough opponent.

One of the key matchups that has me liking West Virginia here is its outstanding passing game against a so-so pass defense for K-State. WVU ranks 12th in the country with 318 passing yards per game and the team has five receivers with at least 200 yards this year. One of the few weaknesses on this Wildcats team is its pass defense where it ranks 56th in the nation in passing yards allowed and 63rd in the nation in passing efficiency defense.

I expect this game to be another exciting one for West Virginia but the determining factor for me is the Mountaineers’ top strength is playing against what I feel is K-State’s biggest weakness. That adds up to what I believe is a very strong play. 10* Thursday Personal Favorite

I am playing on ARKANSAS. Every SEC team that played the Razorbacks this season left the field wiping its brow and letting out a humongous sigh of relief. 
That’s because they know how lucky they were to come away with wins after facing this steadily improving Arkansas team that is desperately fighting to end a now 17-game SEC losing streak. And that includes a No. 1 ranked Misssissippi State squad, who escaped with a 17-10 win against the Hogs in which the Bulldogs trailed at halftime. It was the fourth time this year that Arkansas has either led or been tied in the second half of a game and went on to lose. 
“These guys never quit,” Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema told reporters this week.” I think they have shown that all year long; it's not an option in our program."
I agree and I believe we’ll see the heartbreak finally end for Arkansas on Saturday and we are fading LSU after successfully doing the same last week. The Razorbacks enter this game coming off a bye while LSU tries to shake off a devastating loss to Alabama last week in which the Tide kicked a field goal with three seconds left to send the game to overtime. 
I believe Arkansas will grind LSU down over the course of the game using its 16th nationally ranked rushing offense. The Razorbacks also rank No. 2 in the nation in time of possession and I think we’ll start to see the fatigue set in for the Tigers in the second half when I believe Arkansas will pull away. 
One final note: Arkansas is among the best bets in the nation at 7-2 against the spread and the Hogs have lost the yardage battle in a game only twice this year, by fewer than 60 yards each time.  10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on STANFORD.  The Cardinal need one more win to become bowl eligible, they are seeking revenge after losing to Utah last season, and Saturday marks their last home game of the season. 
So they have all the motivational boxes checked off but I also happen to believe they’re better than the Utes and good enough to cover the number. 
Stanford has the upper hand because of its defense, which I feel  will propel them to the convincing win. The Cardinal rank 11th in the country in rushing defense, fifth in the country in total defense, sixth in passing defense and fourth in scoring defense. 
That is the last thing Utah wants to hear right now because the Utes have lost the yardage battle in seven straight games. It’s kind of a minor miracle that the Utes managed to win four of those contests but I feel their luck runs out against Stanford this week. 
The Cardinal are coming off a bye week and have had plenty of time to study Utah’s habits. I feel they’re going to give the Utes plenty of trouble especially with a struggling Utah passing game. 
The Utes average fewer than 200 yards passing per game and have been out-gained through the air by some big margins in six of their last eight games.  It hasn’t helped that top receiver Dres Anderson was lost for the season two games ago. 
I don’t think Utah will be able to bail out with its normally stout rushing game against this suffocating defense, which is why I like the Cardinal in this afternoon Pac-12 tilt. *10 Conference GOY

I am playing on ALABAMA.  I am taking the Tide for the second straight week after successfully taking them last week over LSU. 
Bama has gone from a team to avoid after going 1-5 against the spread to start the season to 2-1 ATS over its past three games. Mississippi State, meanwhile, has been exactly the opposite after failing to cover in three straight games, though the Bulldogs continue to win games and the yardage battles in the box score. 
Keep in mind here that oddsmakers know how appealing it looks to the betting public that the No. 1 ranked team in the nation, Miss State, was given a touchdown on the opening line. For many, that will be too irresistible to pass up but I believe Alabama will pull out the cover on home field. 
The Tide continues to jell more every game on offense under offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and that was never so evident as last game in overtime against LSU. Bama called a surprise passing play to former offensive lineman Brandon Greene, who caught the pass and plowed his way to the 1-yard line on the first play of overtime. It was the first reception of his career and gives some insight to the kind of confidence Alabama is feeling right now.  
Both teams are stacked with impressive statistics and playmakers on both sides of the ball. But I feel that defense wins tough games in the SEC and Alabama holds the edge in this game. The Tide own the No. 3 rushing defense and No. 2 scoring defense, just to point out a couple of numbers.  10* Saturday Afternoon Main Event

I am playing on CAL. The Golden Bears haven’t beating USC since 2003 and at I believe the Trojans should be nervous about this year’s game even though it is at Los Angeles Coliseum. 

The reason is Cal brings one of the best quarterbacks and overall passing games in the nation and it will face a USC secondary that is neither incredible nor entirely healthy.  

USC ranks 101st in the nation in passing yards allowed per game Freshman starting safety John Plattenburg has a Charlie horse and is expected to be a game-time decision on Thursday. Outside linebacker/safety and arguably the team’s best defensive standout, Su'a Cravens, is expected to play but he suffered an MCL sprain in the last game against Washington State. 

I feel Bears quarterback Jared Goff will be able to keep Cal in this game and maybe even give them a shot at winning it. He ranks  fourth in the nation with 3,119 passing yards and is four passing TDs away from tying a single-season record at Cal. Goff has only four interceptions compared to 10 last year and what makes him so dangerous is the way he spreads the ball around. Cal has six receivers with at least 20 catches this season. 

The Golden Bears are 4-0 against the spread on the road this season and I feel oddsmakers are being far to nice to them once again for this Pac-12 showdown. 10* Thursday Best Bet

I am playing on EAST CAROLINA. I like the Pirates to come away from Cincinnati with a win on Thursday for two main reasons. 

The first is that just about anywhere you look, the Pirates stack up better statistically. The second is that ECU is coming off one of its most baffling losses in recent school memory and I believe the Pirates will be extra hungry for a win against the Bearcats. 

There’s no real need to go through every statistic but ECU’s numbers are better than Cincy’s when you stack them up in just about every category on offense and defense. The Pirates have the No. 4 total offense and the No. 3 passing offense in the nation but the number I feel might have the biggest impact on Thursday is the Pirates’ rush defense. 

ECU’s rush defense ranks eighth in the country and allows just 96.8 yards per game. That will be key against a Cincy offense that used a run game to propel the team to a win over Tulane last week. The Bearcats had two 100-yard rushers in that contest for the first time in a game since 2003, which was a huge benefit for QB Munchie Legaux. Legaux is now the starting QB in place of Gunner Kiel, who has been bothered by a rib injury for several weeks. 

I don’t believe Legaux will have the comfort level he did against Tulane where a running game opened up the field and made passing easier. I expect ECU to stall the rush and put a tighter squeeze on executing an air assault. 

ECU is coming off a tough 20-10 loss to Temple and the baffling part is the Pirates never really threatened to win the game despite outgaining the Owls by 293 yards. Five turnovers in sloppy weather killed ECU in the end and I expect the Pirates to take better care of the ball against Cincy. 

The Pirates are 11-0 ATS following a straight up loss and they have outgained their opponents in yards in all eight of their games this season.  9* Thursday Roast 

I am playing on ALABAMA. The Crimson Tide have perhaps their best and most balanced offense we’ve seen in years, which is a little scary for LSU and confidence boosting for this pick. 
The Tide rank 11th in total offense in the nation, third in passing efficiency, 18th in scoring offense and stop me when you're getting bored. One of the less publicized elements I like here though is that Bama is one of the very best in the country at moving the chains when they need to and halting the opposition when they need to - which I feel will be huge factors in this game in what is sure to be a gritty SEC battle. Alabama ranks second in the nation in third down conversion percentage on offense and second in the nation in fourth-down conversion defense. 
Those may not seem like huge considerations normally when you're doing your handicapping, but you'll especially notice these elements Saturdaynight in Baton Rouge with a crowd that can blow out your eardrums when both sides of the betting line are desperately in need of either a stop or a first down.
Another reason I like the Tide here is LSU has been winning games lately the good ol' fashioned SEC way - by running the ball and stopping the run – which I don’t believe they’ll be able to do against Alabama. The Tigers won that way in their last game, 10-7, against Ole Miss but I feel they’ll be in trouble if they come in with the same game plan this week and expect to have success. The Tide give up a paltry 77.6 rushing yards per game and are second-best in the nation at stopping the run. 10* MAIN EVENT - ALABAMA 

I am playing on ARIZONA STATE. I like the Sun Devils here and it may not be for the reasons you might think.  Most folks think offense when they look at ASU and it’s no wonder. The Sun Devils own the No. 22 total offense in the nation and they’ve scored at least 38 points in four games this year. But I like them to beat the Domers on Saturday with defense.  Arizona State started a little more slowly than it would’ve liked on defense but the team also had to replace nine starters on defense coming into the season. Lately the Sun Devils are coming into their own and they’ve given up an average of just 15.33 points per game over their last three. They also allowed fewer than 300 yards in each of those games in quality wins over Utah, Washington and Stanford.  "I don’t think any team will score more than 20 points on us the rest of the season," said WR Jaelen Strong this week.  I think Arizona State will also be able to take advantage of a Notre Dame defense that  has gone from stellar in the early season to sloppy recently. The Irish are giving up an average of 37.7 points over their last three contests and they just lost starting linebacker Joe Schmidt for the season to an ankle injury.  10* PERSONAL FAVORITE

I am playing on SYRACUSE. Last week I played against Duke when the Blue Devils traveled to Pitt and the difference between covering that game and not was a missed 26-yard field goal by Pitt’s kicker that allowed the game to go to overtime. 
Duke is winning, but by the skin of its teeth. The Blue Devils are on a four-game winning streak and those wins have come by a measly combined four points. 
They face a Syracuse squad that isn’t getting much national publicity these days but the Orange are becoming a tidy little bet. They’ve covered three of their last four games but the lone game they didn’t cover – last week to NC State – they did manage to win the yardage battle. 
Perhaps the biggest reason I like Cuse here is that Duke’s weak spot is probably its rushing defense, where they give up over 200 yards per game. The Orange are 3-1 this season when they can produce a 100-yard rusher in a game and 0-5 when they can’t. And I believe they will against Duke on Senior Day on home field. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on GEORGIA. Any hopes the Wildcats had of Georgia overlooking them went out the window last week when the Bulldogs took a licking from Florida 38-20 with the Bulldogs favored by 11.5 points. 
The Bulldogs are simply better than Kentucky just about everywhere on the field and I don’t see the Wildcats keeping things closer than double digits on Saturday.  Georgia owns the No. 10 scoring offense in the country, the No. 21 total defense and they rank No. 2 in turnover margin. 
I don’t believe Kentucky has anything that can stop Georgia’s rushing attack, which ranks 16th nationally and piles up over 250 yards per game. The Wildcats have been sorely out-yarded in rushing in each of their past three games – all losses – and in five of their six SEC contests this year. 
If you can’t stop the run, you can’t beat Georgia. And I don’t see Kentucky stopping the run Saturday. By the way – the Cats have given up a combined 146 points over their past three games. 10* Breakfast Club 

10* Best Bet, Oklahoma State, analysis posted shortly ...

I am playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I like the Gamecocks here Saturday as the Vols enter hostile territory in a tough SEC night game environment in Columbia. 
South Carolina had this game circled on the calendar before the season began after Tennessee upset the Gamecocks last October and prevented them from playing in the SEC championship. They won’t overlook the Vols this time around and they won’t need to look far for motivation. 
What I like about this game is that most of the Gamecocks’ problems have come on defense this season and Tennessee doesn’t exactly pose the scariest offensive threat in the SEC. The Vols rank 113th in rushing offense and it’s largely because of a disjointed O-line that has struggled to make holes and protect the quarterback this year. 
Only two teams have managed to hold the Gamecocks to fewer than 33 points this season and I am anticipating them to find the end zone early and often in this contest. The Gamecocks rank 6th in the country in first down offense and I think they’ll use that to get Tennessee on their heels from the opening drive.  10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on PITT.  I’m expecting Pittsburgh to bounce back after a rough game last week that saw them cough up four turnovers on their first six plays that led to a drubbing before they even realized what time it was. 

I expect the Panthers to be much better against a more traditional offense like Duke’s this week after facing the triple offense of Georgia Tech last week. Pitt owns the 17th ranked overall defense in the country, the sixth ranked pass defense and the 11th ranked third down conversion defense. Those are the numbers that I feel will be the deciding factors in Saturday’s game. 

Pitt boasts a force on the ground in James Conner, who leads the ACC with 1,079 yards and 14 TDs. I believe it’s a great recipe for the Panthers in a game that might see some wintry weather with cold temperatures and a possibility of rain or snow.  

Duke’s rush defense is nothing to write home about with 193 yards against per game, which I expect to be a major advantage for Pitt in controlling the pace of this contest.  10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR

I am playing on HAWAII. This is a popular game on college Saturdays because bettors easily get caught up in either chasing losses or grabbing one more ‘W’ before NFL Sunday rolls around. It’s the ‘last call’ of the betting world on Saturdays with home games starting around 11 p.m. ET due to Hawaii’s time zone.  Despite that, I rarely offer plays on Warriors games unless I really like them and this week is one of those games.  Hawaii is getting points on home turf against a team they matchup very similarly statistically with and that’s facing the tough travel to paradise.   "Those guys play with their hair on fire," Utah State Matt Wells said this week. "They play hard, they chase the football and play with tremendous effort. I know that is something [Clune] has instilled in them and demanded out of them. I think that's very, very evident when you flip on the tape."  The Warriors will have an improving O-line to help them do that that is finally getting healthy after some early injuries to start the year. The O-line has given up just three sacks through its first three conference games, which will come in handy against a Utah State squad that is best at stopping the run.  What the Aggies aren’t so good at is getting yards when they need them. Utah State, which is seriously depleted at the QB position, ranks 118th in the country in third down conversions and nearly dead last at 124th in fourth down conversion  percentage. Utah State also ranks near the worst in the country in penalty yards per game and Hawaii has long been known to get the benefit of the doubt on penalties at Aloha Stadium.  The Warriors haven't forgotten last year's 47-10 blowout loss - they'll be looking for some payback here and will be anxious to show how much they've improved.  As always, the visiting team is in tough when traveling to Hawaii. Utah State planned to leave Thursday, giving them shorter prep time than usual to prepare for Saturday’s game.  10* Revenge GOY

I am playing on TROY. At first glance, you see the Trojans are just 1-7 straight up this season and struggling in the final year for their storied coach Larry Blakeney.  Upon closer inspection we see that Troy is 4-4 against the spread this year and all four of their covers came against winning teams. 

In short, Troy gets up for better teams and it plays down to its competition. Georgia Southern is certainly one of those better teams as the current leader of the Sun Belt Conference and I expect a big effort from the Trojans in a nationally televised Thursday night game. 

Georgia Southern relies almost entirely on its ground game to move the chains for 402 yards per game rushing. That’s about 50 yards more than any other team in the country on the ground. 

The two things I like about that are: 1. A so-so Trojans defense doesn’t have to worry much about a passing game and 2. This offense has the potential to eat a ton of time on the clock. This is the biggest spread Ga. Southern has seen all season and I see the sand falling to the bottom of the hour glass before the Eagles have a chance to cover this lofty number. 

Troy is working with two QBs right now under center but both are mobile and can improvise when needed. I like that factor heading into Thursday along with kickoff threat Chandler Worthy, who ranks 15th in the country in kickoff returns this season. He’s returned two kicks for touchdowns and if Troy can’t get its offense moving, it will likely often work from decent field position at least. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on TENNESSEE. You may be looking at Alabama’s win 59-0 last week – its largest margin of victory since 1979 – and wondering why I’m taking the Vols this Sunday. 

It’s actually because of that big win. I believe oddsmakers have set this line too high in anticipation of Tide supporters who will inevitably jump on Bama no matter what the line was set at after a win like that. 

I feel Tennessee’s stout defense can grind this game down to an old-fashioned SEC hit fest, leaving the spread looking way too generous for the underdog by the time the final whistle blows. The Vols own the No. 6 pass defense and the 19th overall defense in the nation. They also own the seventh ranked third down conversion defense in the land, which is an area Bama has had success this season on offense. 

The Vols will use a sold out crowd  (and an angry one thanks to Lane Kiffin) to help keep Bama off balance on those third down spots where the Tide normally keep the chains moving.  I see that leading to some promising field position and a running clock for the Vols, factors which will help them cover the number. 

Another element I really like here is that it t’s no secret Alabama is much less comfortable on the road than at home lately. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the spread in their last four road outings.  10* Best Bet  

I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE.  I believe the Cowboys will use a deafening home crowd at the ‘Greatest American Homecoming Celebration’ this Saturday to help propel them to a win over West Virginia. 

Oddsmakers are anticipating the public will overreact to the Cowboys’ 42-9 loss to TCU last week, which is why OK State isn’t favored by more points here. That game was the worst of the season for the Pokes and I expect them to bounce back this week. 

Part of the problem in that loss was an inability to establish a running game. Oklahoma State came into the contest hoping to establish a ground presence but was ultimately stymied by TCU’s 38th nationally ranked rush defense. This week the Cowboys face a weaker West Virginia run defense that allows 167 yards rushing per game. I believe that will help Oklahoma State set up its passing game and get back to scoring points after an off week versus TCU. 

Another factor I love about this game is that one of the key mismatches between these two teams is in the red zone. Oklahoma State owns the 15th best red zone offense in the country while West Virginia owns the 117th ranked red zone defense. I feel that will prove extra costly for a West Virginia team that is one of the absolute worst in the country in turnover margin (-1.57) ranked 123rd.  OK State - 10* Personal Favorite

Jameis Winston (probable) and the Seminoles offense is on a three-week stretch of dominance, and that should continue unabated against a Fighting Irish team that has been solid defensively for most of the season, but inexplicably gave up 43 points at home to North Carolina last week.

The Irish are fortunate to still be unbeaten at this point, having turned the ball over nine times in the last three games. Quarterback Everett Golson has thrown four picks in his previous three contests and completed barely 50 percent of his combined passes in wins over Stanford and the Tar Heels. The Seminoles turned three Syracuse turnovers into 10 points last week, and will make Golson and Notre Dame pay for not holding on to the football.

And let’s be real: this pick is mostly about the Florida State offense, which should pick apart Notre Dame’s young, suspect secondary. The Seminoles have racked up 1,489 yards of total offense over their last three games, coinciding with Winston’s return to the lineup. They’re also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games, and have won their last 10 contests at Doak Campbell Stadium by an average of 41.8 points. I expect Winston to play and I expect a double-digit win. 

10* - Main Event

I’m playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. The Cowboys have yet to play a bad game this season - they gave top-ranked Florida State all it could handle before falling just short in the season opener, then reeled off five straight victories while scoring more than 35 points four times. Take them as an underdog against TCU? Don’t mind if I do.

From a trends perspective, Oklahoma State has plenty going for it. It’s 21-6-1 ATS in its last 28 October games, and 7-3 ATS in its previous 10 conference tilts. The Cowboys are in the top 30 nationally in points per game, and have held opponents to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Simply put, they’re one of the most balanced teams out there - not only in the Big 12, but in the NCAA.

The Horned Frogs have an impressive offence in their own right, but they’ve been put in their place on the defensive end after a strong showing against a trio of pretenders. TCU surrendered 94 points against Oklahoma and Baylor, and should face a similar challenge against quarterback Daxx Garman and a relentless Cowboys attack. And while Horned Frogs junior QB Trevone Boykin is a talent, he completed just 41-of-85 passes against the Sooners and Bears - and that won’t fly against Oklahoma State.

10* - Best Bet 

I’m playing on ALABAMA. Saturday’s matchup against visiting Texas A&M is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions, and until I see Kenny Hill and the Aggies prove they can play four solid quarters against quality opposition, they can’t be trusted - especially in hostile Tuscaloosa.

Texas A&M’s once-formidable offense has all but disappeared over the first three quarters of its last three games, registering just 38 points over that span. Hill and the boys can’t seem to get things going until the fourth quarter - and if they wait that long against the Crimson Tide, they could find themselves down by four touchdowns - and no team comes back from that kind of deficit at Bryant-Denny Stadium. 

Alabama looked shaky at times in a loss to Ole Miss and a narrow win over Arkansas, but I’m not betting against the Tide at home. Especially not with the Aggies having surrendered 83 points over their last two games and boasting a 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven conference games. This is also Alabama’s lone home game in a six-week stretch, so you know they’re going to come out firing.

10* - Personal Favorite

I’m playing on OKLAHOMA. The Sooners come into this one ready to prove that last week’s win over Texas wasn’t a fluke, even though the numbers suggest it may have been. Oklahoma remains a contender for the Big 12 title despite struggling in back-to-back games, and recent trends suggest they should have little trouble handling visiting Kansas State on Saturday.

The Sooners have played down to the level of their competition at times over the past few years, but they’ve also shown an innate ability to get up for good teams. Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against teams with winning records. And the Sooners don’t let bad games affect them moving forward, having gone 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after surrendering more than 450 yards in their previous outing. Don’t expect Oklahoma’s defensive struggles to continue through the weekend.

The Wildcats have played just one road game this season, and came nowhere near covering in that one, escaping with a 32-28 victory over Iowa State despite going in as an 11 1/2-point favorite. Kansas State boasts one of the more potent running games in the conference - averaging 4 1/2 yards per carry with 18 touchdowns - but could have fits against an Oklahoma defense limiting opponents to 3.2 yards per carry. And if the Wildcats can’t get the run game going, it could be a long day in Norman.

10* - Breakfast Club

I am playing on LSU. The Gators are in a bit of a mess entering this week while LSU will be hungry to rebound after a humbling loss to Auburn last week.

Florida’s offense has been nothing to brag about amid quarterback struggles this season. But last week it appeared for a fleeting moment like they had a solution. Backup QB Treon Harris came off the bench and was just efficient enough to propel the Gators to a 10-9 win over Tennessee.

The bad news for Florida is the team has placed him on interim suspension following sexual assault allegations against Harris that came on Monday. The incident allegedly took place in the wee hours of Sunday morning and the Gators have been dealing with all the distractions and the media circus that come with that kind of controversy.

It means Florida will return to Jeff Driskel, who couldn’t find a Gator in the Everglades right now. He hasn’t been able to throw for even 100 yards in each of his last two games with one measly touchdown pass and five interceptions combined in those games.

LSU has been having its own QB issues but the Tigers couldn’t have caught Florida at a better time here. LSU is also 4-1 against the spread its last five games coming off a straight up loss.

Coach Les Miles knows how to get his team to rebound and I strongly believe LSU will take down the Gators in the Swamp. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on MICHIGAN. The Wolverines just might come into this game with the biggest home edge in all of college football this week. 

This will be the Wolverines’  first Big Ten night game in Michigan Stadium’s 88-year history and they’ll be playing it with huge revenge motivation after Penn State won and covered the last five meetings in the series. 

This is only the third home night game in Michigan’s history and the school set an attendance record each of the previous two occurences. I believe a hostile crowd of over 110,000 will make life miserable for Penn State on Saturday and the Nittany Lions will fall short in an old fashioned style Big Ten battle where two great defenses will gut it out. 

There isn’t much to separate these two on defense but where Michigan has a key advantage is the Wolverines are 15-for-15 in red zone opportunities this year. That makes them only one of five schools in the country to be perfect in that category. In a game where I anticipate limited red zone opportunities, I like Michigan to fulfill what the home crowd is looking for on Saturday.   10* Big Ten GOM

I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA. I believe there is a spot here to fade Notre Dame at a time where this very public Irish team is being lauded in the media and visions of national championships and Heisman Trophies are dancing in the heads of Irish supporters.

The Tar Heels are 0-5 against the spread this year, but I see a quickly improving team that’s getting a generous helping of points on Saturday. Their weakness has been on defense – mainly its youth - where they brought an inexperienced batch of starters to the field.

Things are starting jell now and last week they allowed the fewest number of yards since their season opening victory against Liberty. The Heels held Virginia Tech to a respectable 357 yards and eventually it was the offense’s three turnovers in bad spots, all of which led to touchdowns, that doomed UNC.

I believe UNC will take better care of the ball this week and throw some things at Notre Dame that will keep the Irish guessing. The Heels say they’ll stick with a dual quarterback rotation of Marquise Williams and Mitch Trubisky. They’ll use the two to continue to run a no-huddle, up-tempo offense that aims to keep the Irish unsettled on defense and I believe that will ultimately help them cover this big number. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on AUBURN. Auburn Tigers faithful have been waiting since 2010 to taste another victory against SEC West foe LSU and I believe they won’t have to wait any longer than this weekend.

Auburn is in a perfect spot here with a drastically improved, stifling defensive unit that will face a freshman quarterback about to make his first college start. Auburn ranks better statistically in just about every defensive category compared to last year’s team, ranking in the top 20 in the nation in total yards, rushing yards, and points allowed.

LSU, meanwhile, hasn’t seen the consistency it would like on offense which is why the Tigers are starting Brandon Harris. Harris led seven touchdown drives last game – but that was against New Mexico State in a friendly atmosphere. I’m anticipating he’ll learn some tough lessons on Saturday.

10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MIAMI.   Anyone that was expecting an early season drop off from Duke after the Blue Devils won the ACC Coastal last year has to be scratching their head.  Then again the level of competition hasn't been too great for David Cutcliffe's team, which is now 4-0 SU after a 47-13 win over Tulane last week.

Things definitely get tougher this week as Duke visits Coral Gables to play a Hurricanes team that will a) be out for revenge and b) angry after losing last week at Nebraska.

The revenge comes from a 48-30 loss last year in Durham. Miami was coming off back to back losses there and were without Duke Johnson, who got injured in the Florida State game.  Before last year, Miami had not lost to Duke going all the way back to 1976.

Last week's loss to Nebraska saw Miami get run over and commit five personal foul penalties in the second half alone.  The penalties can be corrected. The poor run defense could be an issue, but at least they won't be up against Ameer Abdullah again.

The big difference for Miami on offense this year compared to last is the presence of their own running back Johnson.  So far, he is averaging 6.1 yards per carry.  Had the team not fallen behind in both losses, Johnson could perhaps have been used more effectively.

QB Brad Kaaya has steadily improved over the course of four games.  The freshman has thrown for over 300 yards each of the last two games.  Against Nebraska, he was 28 of 42 for a career best 359 yards.  

Though one-point away from being 4-0 ATS, the competition just hasn't been that great for Duke, who has played Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. 

While the stats may not support Miami being the favorite here, I'll still side with their superior athleticism and individual matchup advantages.  10* personal favorite. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON.   This is a game that I expect to go down to the wire.  Washington has played Stanford tough each of the last two years, including a 17-13 upset at home in 2012.  Last year's game was 31-28 in favor of Stanford, but it was UW that held the 489 to 279 edge in total yards.   They covered as eight-point underdogs.

Now, we have a similar line, only this time in Seattle.  Seems like a pretty good value to me. I know it's coach Chris Petersen's first year, but the Huskies are 4-1 ATS their last five as home dogs.

Washington has started 4-0 for Petersen, which is the first time a coach has started that well at the school in over a century.  It wasn't easy last week as they actually trailed Georgia State 14-0 (as five TD favorites!) before closing the game on a 45-0 run during which they would outgain their opponent 231 to 73.

Winning the turnover margin, 4-0, did the Huskies a lot of favors obviously last week. Personally, I'm not putting a ton of stock into that early deficit.  I had Washington the week previous when they blew out Illinois 44-19.

Stanford is off a bye.  Both wins this year have been shutouts.  But they have suffered a very frustrating loss, to USC, even though they moved the ball well in that game.  

Coming off the bye, naturally you would expect the Cardinal to be "amped up." But those who have played in Husky Stadium aren't shy about letting you know that it's one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, if you're the road team.  A young Stanford offensive line could struggle Saturday afternoon. Washington is 19-3 straight up its last 22 home games.  10* best bet. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA.  If the current number holds, this would be the largest pointspread in the history of the Georgia-Tennessee rivalry.  Frankly, it's indicative of the way this SEC East matchup has gone in recent years.  Georgia has won four years in a row, and while the last three have been pretty close games, this one figures to be a blowout.

The Bulldogs come into this game off a 66-0 beatdown of Troy that saw them run for 367 yards, their most ever under coach Mark Richt. That's with Heisman candidate Todd Gurley running the ball only six times.  So Gurley will be at full strength here and that's bad news for a Tennessee team that's coming off a 34-10 loss to Oklahoma.  In doing so, the Vols allowed 7.4 yards per carry to a freshman running back.

The Volunteers had an off-week after losing to OU, but I don't see it helping much against a far superior opponent.  This has been a program on the decline for some time.  Tennessee just can't hang with the big boys anymore.  They did upset South Carolina last season, but also lost to Oregon, Florida, Alabama, Missouri and Auburn all by two touchdowns or more.  

Tennessee is a young team dealing with injuries.  That's a bad combo when heading "between the hedges."  Two of the team's top five receivers may not play here, which would be a crippling blow.  It's already been confirmed that Von Pearson will not play in this game.

Additionally, no team in America has played more true freshman this season than the Vols have.  They've sent 22 such players onto the field after just four games.

I've also been impressed with Georgia QB Hutson Mason, who is completing 71.2 percent of his passes this year.  The Bulldogs are going to be just too much for the Vols.  10* main event 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON STATE.  One could certainly make the argument that this game matches up the best team and worst team from the Pac 12.  But the pointspread is referred to the "great equalizer" for a reason.   Taking a generous amount of points at home this week, I like Washington State to cover against #2 Oregon.  

Though they are just 1-2 SU/ATS, Washington State has yet to be an underdog.  So the disappointing start to the season that includes losses to both Rutgers and Nevada actually works in our favor here.  It is likely that the Cougars wouldn't be getting nearly this many points had they lost only once and certainly not if they were unbeaten.  

The Cougars have actually covered four years in a row against the Ducks, every time as a big dog.  Last year's game saw them lose 62-38 down in Eugene, but they were taking nearly 40 points.

This will be the first time Oregon has played on the road this season.  After covering the spread in each of the final eight road games under Chip Kelly, the Ducks fell to 3-2 SU/ATS outside of Eugene last year under Mark Helfrich.

This is also the first time that Washington State has played UO in Pullman since 2010.  The 2012 "home game" was actually played in Seattle.   That 2010 matchup was the closest between the teams in recent memory as the Ducks won by "only" 20 points.  

As long as Mike Leach is the coach, you know WSU is going to put points on the board.  While they certainly may have trouble stopping Oregon on offense, the Cougars should be able to score enough to stay within the generous number.   The team averaged 31.0 points per game last season and is up over 36 PPG through three games this year.  10* main event. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA.   I believe Rich Rodriguez's team will be taking this game seriously as they very nearly lost to Cal last year in Berkeley as a big favorite.   But this year's game is at home and this isn't the first time in 2014 that I've backed the Wildcats in Tucson.  They came out of the gates with a real easy 58-13 win over UNLV in the opener.

Since that time, it's been a pair of close calls for "Rich Rod."  I went against his team in Week 2 as they visited UT-San Antonio and won by just a 26-23 margin.   I laid off last week's home game vs. Nevada as they won 35-28, but still feel I've got a pretty good pulse on Arizona nonetheless.

With the two narrow wins, bettors have lined up early to bet against the Wildcats.  I feel that works to our advantage.   A Cal team I played in the opening week against Northwestern (a win) is now being overvalued.

I say that because the Bears have lost their last 14 Pac 12 games.  That's the second longest conference losing streak in the entire country right now.

Both teams are pretty good at stopping the run.  But when it comes to offense, Arizona is much better.  In fact, there are few better nationally on that side of the ball.  They come in averaging 582.7 yards per game.  That is tops among all Pac 12 teams and 8th overall in the country.  The Wildcats may be averaging slightly less points than they were at this time last year, but the yardage is up, both on a per play and per game basis.

Freshman QB Anu Soloman has been better than expected as has freshman running back Nick Wilson, who had big shoes to fill after Ka'Deem Carey went to the NFL.

I just don't see Cal as being ready to compete with the upper echelon in the conference.  10* personal favorite. 

I'm playing on SMU.   Sometimes, when taking a look at a given matchup, there's no disputing who the underdog should be.  This is one of those instances as Southern Methodist hosts #6 Texas A&M.   The Aggies are rightfully big favorites in this spot, but I think too big of favorites against a SMU team that will play desperate football here.  I'm going to take the points.

To say things haven't gone well for SMU thus far would be a mild understatement.  They lost their first two games - against Baylor and North Texas - by a combined 88-6 margin.  Then their coach June Jones resigned due to personal reasons.    It's hard to imagine any team in the country being in worse shape after only three games than the Mustangs are.  

But they have had an extra week to prepare and should come out fired up to play this, their first home game of the season, for a new head coach.   Tom Mason, who was the defensive coordinator under Jones, is taking over on an interim basis for the remainder of the year.

I just think that this is too many points for any team to lay on the road.   It would be easy for Texas A&M to look past this game and towards a stretch of four key SEC West battles that follow it.  

Also, the Aggies will be without one of their key playmakers, Speedy Noil.  The aptly named wide receiver has suffered an unspecified injury according to coach Kevin Sumlin.  The five-star recruit, who also returns punts and kicks, currently leads the team in all-purpose yardage.

The Aggies "only" won by 28 points last week over Rice and that was at home.  I can guarantee you that no matter where the line closes, it will be the most points the team has had to lay in any road game during Sumlin's tenure at College Station.   10* best bet. 

I'm playing on KANSAS STATE.   Auburn deserves all the respect that it's getting here from the oddsmakers as they come into Thursday night on a 13-0 ATS run.   But that being said, I still feel they're laying too many points against a ranked, non-conference foe that has treated its own backers well when playing at home.  I'll be taking the points in this one.

Kansas State boasts an 88-53 ATS home record in Bill Snyder's 22 years in Manhattan.  That's 62.5%.   They may not have covered the spread in the opening game this year, but they were also laying in excess of 40 points against Stephen F. Austin.   

Laying points on the road in these Thursday night situations is always tough.   Take note of the fact Auburn has not played a true road game out of conference in the last two seasons.  The have played one non-SEC foe at a neutral site each year. In 2012, they lost their opening game to Clemson in Atlanta and then of course last year fell to Florida State in the BCS Championship Game.  

Since Snyder came back to the school in 2007, Kansas State has a 27-7 SU home record.  Surprisingly, they lost three times at home last year, matching the number of losses from the previous three seasons combined.  But all three losses were by 10 points or less.  

The key for the Wildcats will be stopping the run.  Auburn led the nation in rushing yardage last season and again is averaging well over 300 yards per game on the ground this year.  But Kansas State has allowed just 174 yards rushing total in two games.    10* main event.

I'm playing on UNLV.  It's been a pretty rough start to the season so far for these Rebels.  I went against them in their first game as they lost a laugher at Arizona, 58-13 as big underdogs.  Last week, though a win, was hardly any more impressive as they beat a lowly FCS squad, Northern Colorado, by only a 13-12 final margin.

Though that kind of win isn't going to impress anyone, it should be mentioned that UNLV did turn the ball over four times, obviously making it harder on themselves.  One positive is that they did run the ball for 211 yards.

They are back to catching a big number this week as they host Northern Illinois, who is off a win over Northwestern, which was one of just a series of black eyes for the Big 10 last week.  But despite beating a team from the Big 10 for a second straight year, I don't believe there's reason to think that this Huskies team will be as strong as the last couple of seasons.

Sure NIU has won 16 consecutive road games.  But they were held scoreless in the first half last week by a Northwestern defense that likely isn't very good.  This is also the second of what will be three straight road games for the team.  This is the sandwich game as they'll play Arkansas next week, again a foe from a bigger conference.  I can see them looking past UNLV here.  

Last year when Northern Illinois was better and had Jordan Lynch at quarterback, they went out West once during the regular season and failed to cover an even larger number against a poor Idaho team.  Ironically, they had just beaten Iowa the game previous, so it's a similar letdown situation this week.

NIU was actually 0-2 ATS on the West Coast last year, also losing its bowl game to Utah State by a score of 21-14.   10* best bet.

I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA.  Who would have guessed that this would be the line for this all-important SEC East matchup just two weeks ago?   But with the Gamecocks off to a lethargic start that includes that high-profile, embarrassing loss to Texas A&M in the opener and then a close call last week vs. East Carolina, they are now a decided underdog against Georgia.  The Bulldogs have played just one game and looked impressive against Clemson.

I was on Georgia there, laying the points.  Though it ended up being a relatively easy cover, it was a three-point game going into the fourth quarter.  They will not have the benefit of playing in Athens in this game.

Last year it was Georgia that came into this matchup in somewhat of dire straits, off a LOSS to Clemson the week prior.  Now that they are off a win AND a bye week, it's kind of easy to see why they'd be favored, especially with South Carolina struggling.  But I think it's too many points.  Before the season started, South Carolina absolutely would have been favored here.

Remember that South Carolina came into the season owning the nation's longest home win streak at 18 games.  A&M caught them off guard.  I don't think Georgia will.  

Georgia had lost to South Carolina three straight times before winning last year.  They have not won in Columbia since '08, scoring a total of only 13 points in two losses since.

The Gamecocks' defense has taken it on the chin in the first two games, but the pass-happy attacks of A&M and East Carolina may very well have simply been bad matchups for their secondary.  Georgia is a run-first team that I see them matching up better against.

Speaking of running the ball, South Carolina will have to get Mike Davis going.  He has just 116 yards rushing in the first two games.  He went for 149 last year against Georgia.  He was not healthy in the A&M game and the team falling behind early didn't help his production.  Last week, he did run for 101 yards against East Carolina. This week, I'll call for a big game from him and South Carolina.  10* SEC best of the best.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON.  Chris Petersen is perhaps finding out that life in the Pac 12 isn't all that it's cracked up to be.   His Huskies have struggled to a 2-0 start, beating Hawaii and Eastern Washington by a combined 8 points.  But I'll give them a bit of a pass as playing out on the Island can be tough as can the week after.  

If there's one conference you want to be playing right now, it's the Big 10.  The once proud league got beat up badly last week with a number of high profile losses.  Who would have guessed that Illinois would be among the few left at 2-0?  But the Illini have certainly had a couple of close calls.  In Week 1, they actually trailed Youngstown State (a FCS team) 9-7 entering the fourth quarter.  Last week saw them neck and neck with Western Kentucky, again trailing at home as favorites entering the final 15 minutes.

Oddsmakers are predicting another easy win for the Pac 12 over the Big 10 this week.  This is hardly Oregon-Michigan State in terms of overall levels of talent, but might the discrepancy between the two teams be the same?  

Washington beat Illinois last year by 10 points in Chicago, a game they never trailed.  Though it got close in the end, the Huskies led by as many as three touchdowns.   They also rolled up 600-plus yards total offense, nearly double that of the Illini.  

Taking their act on the road this year is probably not going to end well for Illinois.  They have lost eight of nine away games the last two years for coach Tim Beckman.  They are also 1-8 against the spread.  The last time they traveled West was two years ago against Arizona State and predictably they lost badly 45-14 (as only 4-point dogs?)

Meanwhile, Washington has a pretty safe bet in Seattle, going 15-6 ATS its last 21.  10* personal favorite.

I'm playing on IOWA.   On a Saturday that saw the Big 10 pretty much embarrass itself nationally, Iowa came awfully close to putting itself at the top of the list.  They trailed Ball State with a minute to go, at home, before scoring a touchdown to go ahead for good 17-13.   After not being that impressive either in the first game against Northern Iowa, there's some real "soul searching" going on right now in Iowa City leading up to the big in-state rivalry game with Iowa State.

Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, ISU is more down than they are.  The Cyclones opened their season by getting blown out by North Dakota State, the second year in a row the Bison opened their season with a win over a Big 12 opponent.  Then last week saw ISU come close, but ultimately fall short against Kansas State in a 32-28 loss.  

Though Iowa State left town with the cash last week and the last four matchups with Iowa have all been decided by six points or less, I'm still going to lay the points with the favorite this year. Iowa should be better while little was expected from the contingent from Ames.

Iowa's goal this season is a Big 10 championship and with a favorable schedule and the conference being down, they should be a player.  Their four top players on offense all returned.  After throwing 2 or more touchdown passes in seven games last year, QB Rudock had a career-high in yards last week with 322.  This offensive line, thought to be one of the best in the Big 10, should be better.  

I'll point out that the Hawkeyes missed three field goals last week against Ball State.  That was part of the reason that the game was close despite Iowa having a 27-13 edge in first downs and a 455-219 edge in yards.   The defense did not allow a touchdown in the game as the only time Ball State found the end zone came on an early fumble return.  10* best of the best.

I'm playing on TEXAS.  I'm well aware that Longhorns QB David Ash is going to miss this game.  But by now the team should be used to playing without him.  Also, with the way the defense played for Charlie Strong in the opener, the impact of Ash's absence won't be as great.

I know it was "only" North Texas, but the Mean Green have a veteran offensive line and it was dominated by the Texas front four.  They forced two interceptions on the first seven pass attempts they faced and brought constant pressure throughout the game.  They allowed only eight first downs and 94 total yards!  That's what you call a dominating performance.

Remember that Strong's defenses at Louisville were very good.  Just last year he presided over a unit that ranked #1 against the run in the entire country.  That will come in handy facing a BYU offense that averaged 5.5 yards per carry in last week's 35-10 win over Connecticut.

Lest we forget the revenge angle that's in play.  The Longhorns got embarrassed last year out in Provo, losing 40-21.  They actually came into that game as seven-point favorites.  That loss signaled the end of the Mack Brown era.   As noted above, the defense BYU will run into here is going to be much tougher.  

Ash played last year against BYU and obviously wasn't much a difference maker.   As I said before, they are used to being without him as he was lost for the year in game #3 (week after BYU) last season.  The 'Horns responded by winning seven of their final nine regular season games.  

Look for the defense to carry Texas to victory in this game as we're getting good value and Ash won't be missed as much as you think.   10* revenge GOM

I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA.   Obviously, you couldn't have drawn up a worse start for Steve Spurrier and South Carolina as they got hammered by Texas A&M in their opening game, 52-28, at home.   They obviously weren't ready for A&M quarterback Kenny Hill.  None of us were.  

This week's opponent fortunately won't be nearly as challenging and this looks like a bounce back spot for the Old Ball Coach and his team.  The opponent is East Carolina, a team that just two years ago the Gamecocks clobbered on this field by a score of 48-10.  They easily covered the three touchdown spread in that one.  

The line for this matchup isn't nearly as high because of what happened last week.  Unfortunately, some of the value is now gone because the number has been bet up, but that's still okay.  I expect South Carolina to roll in this one.

East Carolina is a team that like Texas A&M will look look to pass the ball quite a bit.  Last week, it really didn't matter what the Pirates' offensive gameplan was because they were obviously going to defeat NC Central and they did by a score of 52-7.  But I wouldn't count on Spurrier's defense being as bad as it was last Thursday.

What I would count on is South Carolina bouncing back.  Only once in the previous three seasons have they lost back to back games.  That was in 2012 when they played at LSU and Florida in consecutive weeks.  Don't forget that coming into the year, this was the team with nation's longest home winning streak.

Laying two scores seems like a lot if you watched the Gamecocks last week, but considering the mood the coaching staff is likely to be in, plus how we all viewed this team before the A&M game, they're certainly up to the challenge.  10* personal favorite. 

I'm playing on TULANE.   Going against Tulane provided me with my first win of this college football season.  I have to say that it was a fortunate one though.  

Playing at Tulsa and getting anywhere from 3.5 (where line opened) to 6.5 (where it closed), the Green Wave came out and took a 21-7 lead on the road.  At that point, I was sweating pretty badly.  But not only did Tulsa come back and win, but they prevailed by seven points in double overtime!  A real bad beat if you were a Tulane bettor though.

This week sees the Green Wave taking double digits at home against Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets opened their season with a fairly uninspired 38-19 win over Wofford.  That was at home too.   Not sure if I'd want to be caught laying double digits on the road with this relatively inexperienced GT team this early in the season, so I'll go the other way.

The Yellow Jackets were a double digit road favorite only once all of last season.  They pushed at Virginia, winning 35-25.  They went 0-3-1 ATS their final four road games in 2013.

They are also 0-4-1 ATS their last five games following a SU win, showing that they can't maintain success typically.  Since Paul Johnson's first two seasons when they went 5-0 ATS as road chalk, the Jackets are just 6-8-2 ATS in that role.   

Tulane is both 5-0 ATS off an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS its last four home games.  The Tulsa team they played last week figures to be improved this year.  I can't say the same about Georgia Tech.  

The Green Wave had over 500 yards of total offense last week.  I like seeing that.  They've also had two additional days to prepare for this game.  10* best bet.

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE.  These teams just met in the Russell Athletic Bowl at the end of last season.  Louisville dominated in a 36-9 rout.  Though they won't have Teddy Bridgewater (NFL) or DeVante Parker (injured) for the 2014 opener, they do have Bobby Petrino back on the sidelines and as a result I don't expect the Cardinals to skip a beat.  Look for them to win big in their first ever ACC home game.

Miami will be starting a true freshman at quarterback themselves, so both teams are dealing with new starters at the position.  At least Will Gardner has some previous experience for Louisville.   

Petrino won 41 games in his four-year previous stint at Louisville. Since then, his career has been marred in controversy.  He famously quit the Atlanta Falcons to become the coach at Arkansas, but then was caught with a female student after he crashed his motorcycle.  He resurfaced at Western Kentucky last year where he went 8-4 straight up.  Obviously, he's still a very good coach.

Every year we hear how Miami "is back."  Every year this never really takes place.   Last year's team lost four games.  This year's returns fewer starters and plays a tougher schedule.  This is a tough spot having to open their season on the road with Brad Kaaya making his first career start.

Miami's top offensive weapon is running back Duke Johnson, who is coming back from a serious ankle injury that cost him the second half of last season.  Louisville shockingly led the nation in rushing yards allowed last season.

With this being a national TV game at home, Petrino and the new coaching staff are absolutely going to place a massive emphasis on winning here.  They will with room to spare. 10* main event. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE.   Tennessee owns the unique distinction of being the ONLY team in the country not to return a single starter along either the offensive or defensive line. This is a dangerous Utah State team they are laying points to and I think it's too many.

When looking at Utah State this year, QB Chuckie Keeton is the name to remember.  Considered to be one of the more irreplaceable players in all of CFB, Keeton was lost for the year at the midpoint of last season.  The Aggies still made the Mountain West Championship Game and there gave Fresno State all they could handle.

Keeton is back this year.  Something you may not know is that at the time of the ACL injury he was second in the entire country in TD passes with 18.  He makes Utah State infinitely better.

The Aggies won't be intimidated by the environment of Neyland Stadium either.  Three years ago with Keeton making his first career start they went into Auburn and nearly won as 23-point underdogs.  That Auburn team was coming off a National Championship.  This Tennessee team certainly is not.

Utah State also brings in a quality defense.  Last year saw them rank 2nd in the country, giving up just 2.8 yards per rush.

It's pretty incredible to see how far Tennessee has fallen down the SEC pecking order.  They've had four consecutive losing seasons.  It's going to be tough avoiding a fifth as they face one of the nation's most difficult schedules.  

The SEC vs. the Mountain West is what's helped to inflate this line.  But Tennessee is one of the SEC's worst teams and Utah State is one of the MWC's best.  Take the points in this one.  10* GOM

I'm playing on OHIO.  Let's get right into the revenge angle, shall we? Ohio was Kent's final opponent last year.  This is a game Ohio has been waiting for all offseason as they were hammered 44-18 at home by a Kent team that finished only 4-8.  That's one of those head scratchers when you look back at the previous season's results.  I expect the Bobcats to gain a measure of revenge coming out of the gate.

Last year's game saw Ohio fall into a huge hole early as Kent State scored two defensive touchdowns in the opening nine minutes.  It was pretty much over from there.  You'd have to believe that something similar won't happen again.

This is actually a double revenge situation for Ohio as they lost here 28-6 in 2012.  But that was a ranked Golden Flashes team that was the program's best since the 70's.  This KSU team loses perhaps its best players on both sides of the ball from last season, RB Dri Archer and DT Roosevelt Nix.

Ohio also loses a ton of talent, especially on offense, but does have eight starters back on defense.  They were the better team overall last year and should be again this year.

Taking the points in this MAC East rivalry has traditionally been the way to go.  The underdog has taken the game outright in half of the past six matchups. Usually that has been Kent State getting points.  That's not the case this year, however.  I can't see the Bobcats failing to cover a 6th straight time against their division rivals.

Kent was 0-4-1 ATS at home last year.  10* revenge game of the month.

I'm playing on GEORGIA. Two big things have me pointing towards Georgia in this matchup. One is revenge. Two is they should be much improved while Clemson is likely to go in the other direction. I'm not concerned about laying the points either as the Bulldogs have lost only one game "between the Hedges" the last two years.

Georgia is off an 8-5 season where many things went wrong, namely an injury to starting quarterback Aaron Murray. Hutson Mason had to step in as his replacement and he certainly performed admirably. He led the team from 20 points back to defeat Georgia Tech in the final regular season game and then threw for 320 yards against Nebraska in the bowl game. Those performances bode well for this season.

There were also a number of close losses for Georgia last season, most notably the one against Auburn with the ridiculous deflection on the Hail Mary. They also lost by four at Vanderbilt and by three at Clemson. This will be an improved team this year.

That three-point loss to Clemson could have gone either way. The Bulldogs actually had the edge in total yards and did lead for most of the second quarter. Getting the rematch at home is a big deal, especially in a season opener.

Clemson loses a number of its top players at the skill positions, most notably WR Sammy Watkins. But also gone is their all-time leading passer Tajh Boyd, who had 5 touchdowns and 312 total yards in last year's game. I'm not sure how the Tigers will replace that.

Don't be surprised if Georgia RB Todd Gurley is the difference in this one. Last year, he ran for 154 yards against Clemson - on only 12 carries. He is perhaps the best running back in the entire country. 10* personal favorite.

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA.  This line has been bouncing around since it opened.  Many other bettors quickly joined me on the dog as Cal went from +12 to +10.  There's since been some buyback on the chalk.    Getting double digits, I feel the value is on California.

This is a cross-country trip for the Bears, who hosted Northwestern in the 2013 opener and lost 44-30.  That set the tone for a terrible first season under Sonny Dykes where they went 1-11 with no wins over FBS teams.   But I think there's reasons to be a little more optimistic with this year's Cal team.

They bring 15 starters back, nine of them on offense. As a freshman, QB Jared Goff set the passing record (for freshman) at the university.  It's also unlikely that the team will finish -15 in turnover margin again as they did last season.  Basically, what I'm saying is Cal can only go up.

Northwestern is also coming off a terribly disappointing season.  They were more competitive than California was, but no team (perhaps in the nation) had worse luck at the end of games.   They too are almost guaranteed of improving on 2013's win total.  But I'm still not sure I like the Wildcats in the chalk role.  They failed to cover four of five times last season laying points in Evanston.

Last year's game was a bit closer than the final score indicates.  It was tied early in the 4th quarter and Cal was able to cut the lead to 7 points with just under five minutes to go.  They also had to overcome two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns.  That's basically a guaranteed loss right there and ended up being the difference in the final score.

Northwestern is a team not known for winning games by big margins. I prefer to be on them as a dog, quite honestly.   There is also the issue of RB Venric Mark, who was to be suspended for the first two games anyway, transferring out of the program.  Grab the points.  10* best bet.