Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on USC. The Trojans are 2-0 against the Utes since Utah joined the Pac-12. Going back further finds USC at 8-3 all-time in this series. I expect the Trojans to continue that dominance Saturday afternoon.

Its true that the Trojans are dealing with some injury issues and that they're off a loss. Keep in mind this team is still 3-0 its last three home games though, beating Arizona, Utah State and Boston College by a combined score of 90-52.

The Utes, who were hit hard by personnel losses in the offseason, are also dealing with some injuries. They're off a double-digit loss at Arizona and playing the second of back-to-back road games for the first time this season. QB Wilson is expected to start but may still be at less than 100%.

The Trojans won by 10 at Utah last season and they beat the Utes by nine the previous season. Even with all their current issues, I still believe that they're the strong team and I look for them to win by more than a TD once again. 10*

I'm playing on RUTGERS. I successfully played on the "under" the last time that the Knights took the field, a 24-10 loss at Lousville a couple of weeks back. In their previous game, I successfully played against the Knights, a 3-pt win vs. SMU. This week, however, I feel that the Knights have the situation in their favor.

Houston has been a spread-covering machine this season. However, the Cougars saw their dreams of an undefeated season go up in smoke last week, losing by a single point (47-46) vs. BYU. That figures to be a tough pill to swallow; I won't be surprised if they're a little deflated here.

Rutgers is 5-1 SU (4-1 ATS) its last six off a bye. During that stretch, the Knights are 5-2 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 10 range.

While the Cougars can certainly put points on the board, I believe the Knights have a little more overall talent. Throw in the home field and situational advantages and I expect the Knights to pull away with a double-digit win. 10*

I'm playing on KENTUCKY. The Wildcats were blown out in their last game. However, that was vs. Alabama and it was the only time that it was their fourth straight very difficult game in a row. Prior to facing Alabama, they'd faced Louisville, Florida and South Carolina. They were mostly competitive in each of those games, including losing by just seven at South Carolina. I successfully backed the Cats in their cover at South Carolina and I look for them to again be far more competitive than most will be expecting.

The Bulldogs have beaten Kentucky four straight times, defeating them in Rich Brooks' last season and each of Joker Phillips' three. The Cats have a new coach (Stoops) now though and I do believe that they're an improved team. Note that these teams have played each other every year during that time and that neither team has won more than three straight in the series since 1990.

The Bulldogs are 3-3 on the season. The did blow out Troy and Alcorn State but when facing quality teams have come up short. Against Bowling Green, their most recent game, they won by only one.

While the Bulldogs certainly aren't slouches, they aren't quite as good as some of the teams which Kentucky has encountered recently. I believe all those games against elite opponents will serve the Cats well here, as they step down in class. I expect them to serve notice that they're no longer going to be push-overs in this rivalry, going all out for their first SEC win and earning AT LEAST a cover along the way. 10*

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. Its definitely been a tough start to the season for the Bears. In fact, they've only got one SU win and have yet to cover the spread. I feel that they're offering excellent value here though and that this will be the week that they finally break through with at least a cover.

In addition to playing on the road for the second straight week, this will be the fourth time, in their past five games, that the Beavers have played away from home. They've got a huge game vs. Stanford on deck next week. I feel that it will be easy to look past lowly Cal here.

That will prove costly as the Bears haven't forgotten that the Beavers embarrassed them last season, a 62-14 drubbing at Oregon State. They've had more success against the Beavers here at home though, most recently a 23-8 win in 2011.

While the Beavers have been explosive offensively, the defense has been suspect. The Beavers are allowing more than 30 points and 400 yards per game. On the road, the Beavers are allowing 34 points and 415 yards. That make covering double-digits tough.

While the Bears have admittedly had defensive issues of their own, Cal can also move the ball. Indeed, the Bears are averaging a whopping 563 yards in their four games. While that's translated to "only" 30.7 points per game, it easily could have been more.

The Bears are 6-3 the last nine times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. During that time, the Beavers were 1-2 ATS as road favorites in the 10.5 to 14 range. I believe the Bears are going to play with a chip on their shoulder and I expect them to score enough points to earn AT LEAST the cover. 10*

I'm playing on CLEMSON. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. With it being played at Death Valley, I favor the home underdog.

I successfully played against the Tigers at Boston College last week. They needed to rally to win the game. I believe that result has worked in our favor here. The Tigers got their wake-up call last week - lets not forget that Boston College also gave the Seminoles a bit of a scare. (I also had BC in that one.) The fact that they were able to rally for the win should give them confidence and momentum here, while also some valuable close game experience. Additionally, as the perception is that they barely won last week - while FSU had a bye preceded by a 63-0 win - we're getting the Tigers as an underdog.

Clemson defensive end Vic Beasley, who already has nine sacks, had this to say: ''Last year they got us, but I feel like we should have won. We're looking for payback.''

The Tigers, who beat FSU here in 2011 and who have long had ATS success as a host in this series, have been excellent in conference play the past few seasons, going a profitable 15-5-1 ATS. I'll take the points, but expect them to rise to the occasion with the outright win. 10*

I'm playing on ILLINOIS. I won with the Badgers in their last game, a 35-6 blowout of Northwestern. I also won by going against the Illini in their last game, a 39-19 loss against Nebraska, two weeks ago. This time, however, I feel the value lies with the Illini, particularly after some line movement in their favor.

The Illini were on the road when they lost to Nebraska. They're back home now and they've had an extra week to prepare and recover. Note that the Illini are 3-0 in true home games, outscoring visiting teams by a 45.7 to 21.7 margin. The Nebraska loss notwithstanding, this is a much improved team from the one which lost by 17 AT Wisconsin last year, while listed as 14.5 point underdogs.

Also, note that the Illini are already 1-0 SU/ATS off a bye this season. While the competition (obviously) wasn't nearly what they'll face here, the Illini were outstanding that game, beating Miami Ohio by a 50-14 margin. I backed the Illini in that game and they rewarded me by putting up more than 600 yards of offense, limiting the RedHawks to 250.

While they've faced a pair of tough opponents - and while they didn't get any help from the refs out West - the Badgers are still 0-2 SU on the road. Now, they're being asked to lay double-digits away from home. Note that the Badgers, who were underdogs for each of their first two games, are 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as road favorites.

While the Badgers are indeed tough to stop, note the Illini are expected to get 6-foot-3, 290-pound defensive tackle Teko Powell back. As defensive coordinator Tim Banks mentioned, he's athletic enough (and big enough) to help against the pass and the run.

I expect the Illini to score points, enough of them to earn AT LEAST the cover. 10*

I'm playing on STANFORD. The Bruins check with the better record and the higher overall ranking. However, I believe that the Cardinal are favored for good reason.

The Cardinal appeared headed for a showdown with Oregon, thinking if they could win that game that they'd have the inside track for the National Championship game. Those plans took a major hit with last week's loss vs. Utah. Still, I believe that Stanford can and will handle its disappointment and bounce back with a much needed victory.

With a game vs. Oregon on deck, its now UCLA which is starting to entertain National Title dreams.

The Cardinal have won all three meetings the past couple of seasons, covering the spread in two of those.

The Cardinal are in one of their better roles here. They're 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range.

If UCLA can beat Utah and Utah can beat Stanford, then UCLA must be able to beat Stanford. Right? Not in my opinion. I still believe the Cardinal are the stronger team and I look for them to show it on Saturday afternoon. 10*

I'm playing on CENTRAL FLORIDA. This line has climbed considerably from its opener. While I already really liked the Knights, I now believe that we're also getting very good line value.

Louisville is indeed a very strong team, on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals check in with a perfect 6-0 record. They've defeated every opponent by a minimum of 14 points and are winning their games by an average score of 41 to 7.3. While those are certainly impressive numbers, I believe that Central Florida is by far the best team that the Cards will have faced.

The Knights are 4-1 on the season, including a victory at Penn State. That 34-31 victory, part of their 3-0 road record, was arguably more impressive than anything Louisville has yet to accomplish. The Knights lone loss on the season came at home - and by only a field goal - against a talented South Carolina team.

In going 3-0 on the road, the Knights have outscored their hosts by an average score of 32-16.

For the season, UCF is averaging 414 yards per game, 6.5 yards per play. The defense is permitting just 16.6 ppg, 353 ypg. The Nittany Lions were the only team to score more than 30 points against them - and they got just 31.

Bridgewater has proven to be a very capable QB for the Cards. However, he wasn't all that sharp last time out. While not nearly as well known, UCF has a capable QB of its own. Blake Bortles has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 1,334 yards and nine touchdowns.

While the Knights are off a bye, the Cards are playing their third game in the past 13 days. The Knights have been excellent as road underdogs in this range over the years and I look for them to prove a much tougher test for the Cards than many will be expecting. 10*

I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. I've liked UNC all week, liking the Tar Heels at +7 or better. However, I waited until Wednesday to release the play, as I'd hoped the number might climb all the way to (or past) +10. When it looked like it wouldn't get there, II decided to jump in at +9.5. Frankly, I won't be shocked if UNC scores the outright win.

Back in the top 10 for the first time in a few years and facing a struggling UNC squad, I believe that the Hurricanes could easily get caught patting themselves on the back.

While the Hurricanes are always loaded with talent and very athletic, I'm not convinced that this year's team has done enough (yet) to deserve its lofty ranking. Sure, they beat G-Tech last game. That was at home though - and they had to overcome a 10-point deficit. The Canes win over Florida, while impressive, also came at home - and it came by only five points. The Canes only road game was at South Florida. So, not only were they within their own state, they were also facing a Bulls team which has been terrible this season.

Granted, the Tar Heels haven't been too good either. In fairness, however, three of their five games have been on the road - and those games were at South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech - none of them easy venues. They had one disappointing home loss (ECU) but won their other home game (MTSU) by double-digits.

While its been a tough start, a win here would change everything for the Heels. Not only would they gain respect from the National TV audience, they'd put themselves back in position to reach a bowl. (After this, the schedule gets considerably easier.)

The Heels upset the Canes last season, at Miami. That should give them some confidence here that they can do it again. Miami QB Morris struggled, going 12 of 26 for 155 yards with two INTs, before exiting late due to an ankle injury.

The Canes won here in 2011 but it was only by six points. Prior to that, the Heels had beaten them four straight here.

UNC's coach Larry Fedora said this, when asked if the season was salvageable: "There is no doubt in my mind that it is and it starts today, or yesterday or whenever you want it to start, it starts now

I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. Many people are currently pretty down on the Yellow Jackets. They're off back-to-back losses and going on the road to face a team that pounded them last season. Meanwhile, BYU is off a big win over a good team, their second straight blowout win. That has many people jumping on the BYU bandwagon. I believe that combination of pro-BYU and anti-GT sentiment is helping to provide us with excellent value on what I expect to be a highly determined visitor.

True, the Jackets are off back-to-back losses. I played against them in the first of those losses though (vs. V-Tech) so that didn't come as a real shock to me. Last week's game was at Miami. The Jackets weren't getting as many points in that game, as they are here - yet, I feel they match up better against the Cougars than they did against the Hurricanes.

Keep in mind that G-Tech won its first three games by a combined score of 136-34.

True, BYU looked very impressive in beating Texas, back in early December. Give the Cougars props for that win. However, last week's win at Utah State needs a bit of an asterisk beside it, as the Aggies lost their star QB early on in that one. Not that BYU lost by three at Virgnia and that it was beaten by seven here by Utah.

Including the loss vs. the Utes, the Cougars are an ugly 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. During the same stretch, the Jackets were 4-2 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range.

G-Tech comes in with payback on its mind. The Cougars embarrassed the Jackets last season. Many of those same GT players are back and they haven't forgotten. I don't believe that the BYU defensive line is as good as the one that the GT offense struggled against last year - and I look for the Jackets to have considerably more success in putting pts on the board. Ultimately, I expect AT LEAST a cover. 10*

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. Northwestern checks in with a top 20 ranking. However, I feel that the unranked Badgers are laying this many points for good reason.

Give the Wildcats credit for playing a great game last week. They very nearly defeated Ohio State. They didn't though and the tough loss figures to take a toll on them here.

The Badgers are also off a tough loss vs. those same Buckeyes. However, they've had an extra week off in between games.

Note that Melvin Gordon, Jacob Pedersen and Kenzel Doe all figure to play for the Badgers, the bye allowing each some extra time to recover.

Homefield advantage has to be considered.The Badgers have beaten the Wildcats three straight times here, winning the last two here by 79 combined points. This season, they're 3-0 SU/ATS here, outscoring teams by a 47.3 to 3.3 margin, out gaining them by a 583.3 to 168.3 average, in terms of total yards.

The Badgers are 8-4 ATS their last 12 as home favorites in the 7.5 to 10 range, going 9-3 ATS the last 12 times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. That includes a 4-0 SU/ATS mark their last four in that situation. I expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. 10*

I'm playing on UAB. The Blazers improved last year, showing glimpses of being half decent and making strides under their first year coach. I believe his year's team has improved again and that this week's game should provide an excellent opportunity to demonstrate it.

Its no surprise that the Blazers are 1-3. Three of their four games have been on the road, two of them vs. SEC teams. They were competitive vs. Troy, their only road game vs. a non-SEC team, losing by just three points. In their lone home game, the Blazers won by 24.

I recall reading a preview of the Blazers' season, one of the many I read. The writer offered both a most optimistic and a most pessimistic scenario. The former called for eight wins and a bowl berth. The latter called for three wins, this being one of them. In other words, even if the season went terribly, this was a game that the Blazers were still expected to win. Now, that was just someone else's opinion - but the reason I even remember that, was that I felt/feel the same way. I personally had this game marked down as a "highly probable" win for UAB since the first time I went through the schedule.

While I like the job their coach is doing, the Owls simply aren't all that talented. They're also relatively young and inexperienced on the defensive and offensive lines. Additionally, they've had a very challenging schedule, as this marks their fifth road game through the first six weeks of the schedule. Throw in the fact that they're off a heart-breaker (let game get away vs. Rice) last week and I believe that they're in a very challenging spot.

While we have to go back a bit, the Blazers are 6-2-1 ATS (8-1 SU) the last nine times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. I believe they've got a number of advantages here and I expect a win and cover. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. I've played on the Eagles twice so far this season, going 2-0 in those games. I had them last week when they covered vs. Florida State and I had them in their second game, when they defeated Wake Forest by two touchdowns. I believe this will be another good spot to back them.

The Eagles' last two games have been difficult ones, to say the least. They had to play on the West Coast against USC and then had to come back to face Florida State. With all due respect to the Black Knights, Army represents a significant step down in class.

While they had trouble out West, the Eagles played the Seminoles tough last week. When facing lesser opposition, they won both previous home games by double-digits.

While they weren't able to score the outright upset, the Eagles played the Noles considerably tougher than they have in recent seasons, showing vast improvement from last year. Andre Williams ran 28 times for 149 yards for the Eagles. QB Chase Rettig completed 19 of 29 passes for 197 yards and a career-high four touchdowns.

Florida State's Kenny Shaw said this of the Eagles: ''They came out firing. They came out playing better than we expected. I give them big ups for that."

Now, the Eagles get to face another team which defeated them last year. It was almost exactly a year ago to the day (10/6/12) that Army upset them by a score of 34-31. I feel that it will provide another excellent chance for the Eagles to show that they're improved - and this time, that improvement should translate to a victory.

There were a lot of low points last season. The Army game was right there with the worst of them though. It wasn't a blowout loss, as the Eagles lost by only three. However, it was their only "upset" loss and it came against a team which finished with only two total wins.. Every other loss on the season came when they were underdogs. I believe the Eagles will have payback on their minds.

Army is off an impressive win vs LA Tech at the Cotton Bowl. Listed as underdogs, the Knights won by a score of 35-16. However, before getting too carried away about that victory, keep in mind that the Knights' previous game was a 25-11 loss vs. Wake Forest - a team BC defeated. The Knights' previous road game was a 40-14 blowout loss at Ball State. They've been brutal in true road games in recent seasons.

Note that the Knights didn't play back-to-back road games last season. They did once the previous season but there was a bye in between those games. So, playing a "neutral site" game followed by a road game, is somewhat new territory for them.

The Eagles have a road game at highly ranked Clemson on deck, followed by another road game (UNC) after that. That makes taking advantage of this winnable game that much more important.

Wake Forest and Florida State already found out that BC is much improved. I say Army finds out the same thing Saturday afternoon, the revenge-minded Eagles pulling away for a double-digit win. 10*

I'm playing on TEXAS. I won with the Longhorns in their last game and I believe that this will be another good spot to back them.

The Longhorns entered their last game off back-to-back bad losses. Their dreams of a national title were already shot. Many were calling for Mack Brown's head, lamenting about the demise of the program. Needless to say, the win over K-State was huge.

One big win can change a lot. The Longhorns have now regained some of their swagger and confidence. They're 1-0 in Big 12 play and they know their dream of winning the conference is still alive.

Keep in mind that this is an experienced and talented Texas team, one which had really big hopes entering the season.

In addition to the "W" in the conference standings and the emotional lift, there were a lot of positives gained on the field in beating the Wildcats. The defense showed vast improvement in its second game under new coordinator Robinson. The running game really got going. Backup QB Case McCoy got more work.

When off a big win, teams often like to keep playing. However, I believe having a bye came at a good time for the Longhorns and I look for them to benefit from it. Its given them some time to get healthy, while also allowing some extra time to prepare. Note that they're 5-1 ATS their last six off a bye.

There are still a few concerns. QB Ash is still being evaluated and may not be able to go. Linebacker Jordan Hicks got hurt last game and is out for the season. Starting middle linebacker Steve Edmond is out for the first half, due to a targeting penalty.

In my opinion, the Longhorns have the talent to overcome that adversity though; I don't believe Iowa State has the type of team which can take advantage.

It seems likely that Texas won't rush Ash back. While McCoy is more 1-dimensional than Ash, he can be an effective game manager, the type of QB capable of beating the likes of Iowa State.

After the win over K-State, Brown had this to say: "There were parts of the team I expected to see and expect to see for the rest of the year. This can be a really good football team. I don't think this team will let up. We need to get healthy, but there are no excuses. Just keep your mouth shut and go play. We need to win."

Whether its Ash of McCoy, the I look for Brown's team to do just that. 10*

I'm playing on ARKANSAS. Its true that the Aggies were very good on the road last year. However, this is a new year and this is their first road game of the season. I expect them to have their hands full.

The Razorbacks haven't forgotten that the Aggies embarrassed them 58-10 last year. I expect them to show up an extremely motivated team.

True the Razorbacks remain young at a few key positions. They aren't without talent though. They've also got a much better coach this year though and the secondary is more experienced - they should be able to deal with Manziel somewhat more effectively.

Of course, stopping Manziel completely is no easy task. The best way to limit him is to keep him on the sidelines. That goes hand-in-hand with the ball control type of offense that Bielema wants from Arkansas.

Not only does Bielema's crew want to dominate time of possession, they'll be up against an Aggie run defense that should allow them to do just that. In fact, you might be surprised to learn that the Aggies are giving up 218 rushing yards per game, good for 106th in the country. Opposing backs are averaging 5.9 yards per run against them. Even Rice ran for more than 300 yards against them.

Although they ran for only 101 yards last week, the Razorbacks ran for 292, 333 and 258 yards in their first three games.

While the Aggies are off a big win, note that they had more than 100 yards of penalties and missed three extra point attempts. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. 10*

I'm playing on GEORGIA. The Bulldogs have played a brutal schedule. Prior to last week's easy game (45-21 win vs. North Texas) they had to take on South Carolina and Clemson. Those teams were ranked #8 and #6 when they faced them. Now, they take on #6 LSU. That makes them only the third team in the BCS era to face three top 10 opponents in their first four games. While beating LSU is almost never easy, I believe the Bulldogs will be up for the task.

The Bulldogs know that if they can win this one, that they're right back in the hunt for a trip to the National Championship game. I believe that the two early challenges will serve them well here.

LSU has cruised through the first four games, going 4-0 SU. This year's team suffered heavy personnel losses though. The Tigers had a school-record eight defensive players drafted and they'll have four new starters on the defensive line. At the beginning of the season, defensive coordinator John Chavis noted: ''Obviously, the number of guys that we lost last year isn't usual."

The Tigers, who have failed to cover their last two, now take a serious step up in class. I expect some of last season's personnel losses to finally catch up with them.

The Bulldogs haven't forgotten about a 42-10 beating the Tigers gave them back in December of 2011, at the SEC Title game. I say its payback time on Saturday afternoon. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. I successfully backed the Eagles when they beat Wake Forest. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so.

Needless to say, the Seminoles are much tougher than the Demon Deacons. Still, they're also laying more than three touchdowns. I believe that's asking too much of them.

True, the Eagles got blown out (35-7) in their last game. However, that was at USC and they've since had a bye week to recover. Note that they're getting considerably more points this week than they were against the Trojans, despite now playing at home. They're 2-0 SU here on the season, both wins by double-digits.

While they did cover (vs. Bethune Cookman) last week, the Seminoles are still only 5-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, after winning two or more consecutive games.

While it may not necessarily give them the best chance at the outright win, I believe BC's conservative mindset lends itself well to keeping this one close.

Coach Steve Addazio noted: "We have to play great defense, get field position and run the ball well."

With their perfect record, with big games vs. Maryland and Clemson on deck and having embarrassed the Eagles each of the past couple of seasons, I believe that it will be easy for the 'Noles to go through the motions a bit here. On the other hand, I expect the Eagles to be absolutely focused on the task at hand and for that to lead to at least a cover. 10*

I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. I won with the Yellow Jackets last week. This week, however, I feel that the value lies the other way.

The Hokies haven't been very good at the betting window the last couple of seasons and they're already off to a slow start in that area this year. That has many bettors hesitant to back them. This, in turn, has helped to create solid line value.

The Hokies may be 0-2-2 ATS. However, keep in mind that they're also 3-1 SU and 3-0 SU their last three games. Their only loss all season came against Alabama. They haven't been dominant but they've found a way to win.

True, facing the Yellow Jackets' unique offense on short rest and off a triple OT game isn't probably ideal. However, to compensate the Hokies spent their past several Sunday practices on G-Tech preparation.

Virginia Tech senior defensive tackle Derrick Hopkins said this of adjusting to G-Tech's offense: "It's not a tough adjustment. Most guys have been preparing for it a long time, so it's just like second nature kind of. We know what to expect."
Note that VT scout team quarterback T.J. Shaw has played the role of the Yellow Jackets' quarterbacks for four consecutive years on Georgia Tech game week.
While the Hokies have had some kicking issues the past couple of games, they'll get senior kicker Cody Journell back from suspension. Prior to an off game vs. ECU, Journell had made 36 of 44 career fg's.

Note that the last time that V-Tech played a Thursday game on short rest was way back in 2006, when the Hokies upset #10 Clemson.

Last year's game was decided by three points, a 20-17 win for the Hokies. The 2011 meeting here saw the Hokies win by 11.

Beamer has said repeatedly he wants his Hokies to "be good" by the start of ACC play. I believe they've got a real shot at the upset here and expect them to be "good enough" to earn at least a cover. 10*

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Longhorns have dropped two in a row, getting beaten up in the process. Fans are jumping off the bandwagon and/or calling for Mack Brown's head. Those results and that sentiment have kept the line below a touchdown here. I believe that's offering plenty of value with what I expect to be a very dangerous team.

The Longhorns are still very talented and they still believe. Remember, this team returned 19 starters from a team that won nine last year. Sunday, the day after the loss to Ole Miss, a group of seniors addressed the team, saying how much they still wanted to leave with the conference title.

True, K-State has had the Longhorns' number in recent seasons. The Wildcats didn't do themselves any favors, in my opinion, when Tre Walker stated that Texas lays down when times get tough.

Texas safety Adrian Phillips had this to say about that: "Its basically a slap in the face. You don

I'm playing on UL LAFAYATTE. I like how this one sets up for the road team. The Ragin' Cajuns had some experience against good teams, losing at Arkansas and Kansas State. Then, stepping down significantly in class, they crushed Nicholls 70-7. They set numerous school offensive records in that game and come in on a high, with positive momentum.

That's not the case for the Zips. Akron played a great game last week, very nearly upsetting Michigan. To some so close to pulling off the miracle, only to lose, can be tough. An emotional letdown wouldn't surprise.

Akron isn't good enough to not bring its "emotional A Game." Not against a team which just put 70 points on the board, one which has the best offense in its conference and in its school's history.

Keep in mind that the Zips lost by 31 in their opener and then barely beat James Madison in their second game, winning by only two and giving up 498 total yards. With that ATS loss, they're 4-9 ATS at home the past couple of seasons. That includes a 1-2 ATS mark as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range.

The Cajuns couldn't pull off the upset in either of their first two road games but this is still a team with very big expectations and plans for the year. None of those plays include a loss here. I expect a double-digit win. 10*

I'm playing on FLORIDA. The poor Volunteers. Last week, they had to contend with Oregon. (They were blown out 59-14.) This week, they take on a hungry Florida Gators team, one which almost always gives them trouble.

The Gators are 8-0 their last eight against the Vols. Throw in the fact that the Vols are 1-23 their last 24 games (0-17 L17) against Top 25 teams and one can imagine that even Tennessee fans might be a little nervous.

While the line might seem a little high, keep in mind that the last six games in this series have all been decided by double-digits and by an average of 19. Note that the Vols are 2-10 ATS as underdogs the past couple of seasons.

While Tennessee was getting destroyed by Oregon, Florida was resting with a bye week. That gave QB Driskel an extra week to heal. He's expected to be fine. On the other hand, the Vols are unsure who even will play QB for them.

I expect another blowout win for the Gators. 10* SEC GOM

I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. The Yellow Jackets have owned the Tar Heels in recent years. I don't see that changing this season. The Jackets have destroyed a pair of lesser teams and come in loaded with confidence. They followed up a 70-0 win over Elon with a 38-14 road win at Duke. They ran for 368 yards and 344 yards.

Last season, the Jackets won 68-50 at UNC. This one likely won't be as high-scoring as that one. (Although you never know.) However, with an O/U line of 60 and a pair of capable, albeit different, offenses - we will see some points.

UNC lost by 17 at South Carolina and then responded with a 20 point win at Middle Tennessee State. The Tar Heels allowed the Gamecocks to gain 228 yards on the ground and then Middle State ran for 158 (401 overall) yards against them. I see them having real trouble stopping the G-Tech attack, one which ran for 380 yards against them last season.

This year's Tech offense is arguably even more dangerous - or at least more difficult to prepare for. In the game against Duke, the Jackets broke out some new formations and were throwing for TDs.

UNC's Tim Jackson said this of Paul Johnson and G-Tech throwing the ball: "I feel like they did it just because they could, honestly. Another wrinkle for you to prepare for. I'm not sure if they're even going to run that against us, but it just gives you another reason to prepare for them, another 30 minutes that you have to spend watching film on their formations. Let's throw four times and make them prepare for the pass when we're really going to run the ball,"' he added, saying of Johnson: "Dude's smart. He knows what he's doing."

While they had a bye last week, the Tar Heels are 0-2 SU/ATS off a bye the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, they're 1-5 ATS as underdogs, 0-1 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. They'd dearly love to avenge last year's loss, I just don't feel they'll be up to the task.

The Jackets are 8-2 ATS the past couple of years in September. During that stretch, they're 4-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range and 1-0 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. I feel they'll score enough for the win and cover. 9* breakfast club

I'm playing on FRESNO STATE. Many aren't accustomed to seeing Boise State listed as an underdog, particularly against a team they have dominated, like Fresno State. Not surprisingly, the line dropped from its opener. I believe the Bulldogs are favored for good reason though and I feel this game provides an excellent opportunity for them to get some payback against a team which embarrassed them (57-7) here two seasons ago.

This is a huge game for Fresno State. The fact that last week's game got cancelled figures to be a positive. No injuries and more time to game plan specifically for the Broncos.

Note that DeRuyter wasn't around when the Bulldogs got killed here two years ago. That's noteworthy as they're 8-0 at home since he took over. With the exception of the 1-point win over Rutgers in Week 1, every victory came by double-digits.

The Bulldogs recently cracked the Top 25 and now I look for them to prove that they're worthy of that ranking. *9 Main Event

I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE. The Badgers come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Sun Devils are favored for good reason.
The Badgers have indeed looked dominant. However, their opposition has been extremely weak. Now, they'll be playing in the heat of the desert against a far more dangerous opponent. Of course, the same can be said for Arizona State.
I believe that the venue is going to play an important factor in the outcome. Note that the Badgers are only 3-6 ATS (4-5 SU) on the road the past couple of seasons. During that time, they're also 1-3 SU/ATS vs. Pac-12 teams and 0-2 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range.
While the prime-time start might allow the temperature to drop a bit (The National Weather Service forecast is calling for a daytime high of 103 degrees and a low of 82.) I believe it favors the home team. Keep in mind that the East Coast based Badgers have played at 12 ET in both previous games.
Arizona State fans will reportedly be dressed in black - for a "blackout" and will be fired up, ready to support their team. I expect the Sun Devils, 10-2 ATS their last 12 against Big-10 teams, to ride the wave of emotion, en route to a big win. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ILLINOIS. I've won with both these teams already this season. In Week 1, I backed the Huskies when they hammered Boise State. Last week, I backed the Illini. Listed as underdogs vs. Cincinnati, they won by a score of 45-17, racking up better than 500 yards of offense. While that did get people noticing the Illini a little, I believe that they're still flying under the radar.

As Illinois linebacker Jonathan Brown noted: "No one really gives us a chance, which is nothing new here. It's been that way almost all of my four years here and it's something we work hard every day to try and change."

Needless to say, this is a very big game for the Illini. A chance to beat a nationally ranked team, while also a chance to play at Soldier's Field for the first time in nearly two decades.

Beating the Huskies won't be easy, as they are indeed a talented club. Still, I really like the new Illini offense.

Senior QB Nathan Scheelhaase has thrived under offensive coordinator Bill Cubit. He's already got six TD passes and is averaging 9.97 yards on every attempt. You may recall Cubit was the head coach at Western Michigan, where his teams regularly featured non-huddle spread looks.

Cubit said this of his QB: "He's so intelligent. For me, it's just a pleasure to watch him go out there and have fun. For a guy who's been a little bit maligned around here, you know, right now I think he's leading the Big Ten in passing."

I expect the Illini offense to again have success, enough to AT LEAST lead to a cover. 10* best bet

I'm playing on KENTUCKY. I won with the Cardinals when these instate rivals faced each other. At the time, people didn't know quite how good Louisville is and they also didn't know quite how bad Kentucky was. The Cards easily covered. Things set up somewhat differently this year.

The Cards are again a very good team. This time, however, everyone knows it. Meanwhile, thanks to last year's record, everyone still thinks of Kentucky as a very bad team. However, I think this team is considerably better than the one which took the field last season.

I backed the Cats last week and they destroyed Miami Ohio by a a 41-7 margin. The score easily could have been even more lopsided given the 675-122 edge in total yards.

Obviously, the Cards are vastly superior than the RedHawks. However, that big win over Miami Ohio should give Kentucky the confidence it can play with Louisville, giving the Cats some much needed swagger.

Looking back to last year and we find that Louisville was laying two touchdowns at home. This season, the line has climbed even higher than that, despite the fact that Kentucky is now playing at home and appears to be improved from last year. I feel that's providing us with excellent value and I'm grabbing all the points I can get. 9*

I'm playing on TCU. While I often find myself on a home underdog on Thursday nights, I like the road team in this one.

With Pachall out, Boykin gets the call for the Frogs. Admittedly, he doesn't have a great record as a starter. However, he got plenty of experience last year - and he was 9 of 13 for 133 yards and two TDs after coming on last week. Note that he can also make more plays with his legs than Pachall.

Note that Boykin threw for a career high 332 yards and four TDs when these teams faced each other last season, the first time they did so as Big 12 foes.
While the Frogs have faced LSU, the Red Raiders have played lesser opposition. I expect that game vs. quality opposition to serve the Frogs well here.

Remembers, Tech QB Mayfield is a freshman walk-on and he'll be facing a TCU defense which was best in the Big 12 last year and which returned nine starters from that unit.

Texas Tech QB Kingsbury had this to say: "I

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. The Huskers won their opener. However, they didn't look very good in doing so. In fact, they allowed 602 yards against Wyoming, eventually eking out a 37-34 victory - that was the second most yards ever allowed by the Huskers, in a game that they won. While that performance may keep some off the Huskers this week, I expect it to have them in an angry mood. I expect their "anger" to spell trouble for a vastly over-matched Southern Miss. squad.

The Golden Eagles have lost 13 straight games. Favored by a touchdown in their opener, they lost 22-15 vs lowly Texas State, turning the ball over six times. The score could have been even worse too, as they managed a mere 215 total yards, while allowing 400.

Speaking of lopsided yardage stats, these teams met on the first day of Sept. last season. The Huskers won by 29, dominating on the ground and through the air. The total yards was 632-260. The Huskers balanced attack put up 354 yards through the air (26 of 34 with 5 TD passes fro Martinez) while rushing for another 278. Dominating stats indeed.

So, why do the Eagles have to play here again? Actually, the game originally was scheduled to be played in Hattiesburg, Miss. However, the financially strapped Southern Miss athletic department struck a deal to be the visiting team in exchange for$2.1 million.
While the Golden Eagles should eventually snap their losing streak, its not going to happen here - or likely for at least a few weeks. (This game is followed by road games at Arkansas and Boise State.)

Nebraska can score with the best of them - and the Huskers learned a lesson last week - don't take your foot off the gas pedal. I seem them "getting healthy" against these weak foe, winning in decisive fashion. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on ILLINOIS. Both these teams won their opener. However, the Bearcats covered while the Illini did not. Laying 10.5, Cincy crushed Purdue by a score of 42-7. On the other hand, Illinois won by a 42-34 margin over Southern Illinois, a game they were laying 16.5 for. Those results - the fact that the Bearcats were more "impressive" have worked in our favor, in my opinion. That's helped in allowing us to get more than a touchdown with the Illinois.

While the Illini defense did surrender a few more yards through the air than they wanted, they were very stingy against the Salukis' run game. They allowed just 66 yards on the ground, on 26 carries. That should serve them well against a Cincy team which ran the ball almost twice as much (47 carries vs. 25 pass attempts) as it threw the ball last week.

The Illini were also excellent on the other side of the ball, as senior QB Nathan Scheelhase threw for a career high 416 yards. Needless to say, he's happy with new offensive coordinator Bill Cubit.

The Bearcats are only 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were listed as road favorites in the 7.5 to 10 range. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way here. 10* best bet

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. Northwestern is coming off a dream season, one which resulted in its first bowl win in 64 years. Facing a California team which struggled last year, many will expect a blowout.

I like the changes here at Cal though starting with Dykes at head coach. Tedford hasn't been getting it done in recent years while Dykes led an LA Tech team which averaged better than 50 points a game last season.

While the Wildcats have managed some opening wins on the road, they're a long way from home here. They're no longer the underdog and no longer will be surprising anyone. Instead, its Cal which is in that position, hungry to make a name for itself.

As good as they've been against the number overall, the Wildcats are 0-1 ATS the only time that they were a road favorite in the 3.5 to 7 range the past couple of seasons.

I expect the new look Bears to be much tougher than many will be expecting, ushering in the new era by improving to 26-14 ATS the last 40 times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. 10*

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Broncos come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Huskies are favored for good reason.

You may recall these teams meeting at Vegas last December, the Broncos winning 28-26. The rematch comes in front of a fired up Pacific Northwest crowd though against a highly experienced Husky squad, determined to get some payback. I expect the change in venue to make a big difference.

While the Broncos have admittedly been tough, wherever they play, the Huskies are very hard to beat here in their home state. They're 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS here at "home" the past couple of seasons, covering five straight. Note that their home has enjoyed a $250 million dollar redecorating job. I expect them to christen it with a win and cover. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on SMU. The Red Raiders have owned this series. I believe the Mustangs are in a good spot to finally deliver some payback. SMU covered its final five games here last season. June Jones has brought in old Hal Mumme to help tweak the offense; I expect the Mustangs to have success against a vulnerable Texas Tech defense, one which is again adjusting to a new scheme. Jones said this of he and Mumme's new attack: "I always kind of felt that what we did in our passing game was getting the ball down the field vertically ... and he was more horizontal. We've combined some of the approaches, and I'm going to kind of enjoy watching what happens this fall because I think we stumbled upon some pretty good concepts." While he did have a number of picks early in the season, note that SMU's senior QB Garret Gilbert was sharp down the stretch (15 TDS vs. 0 INTS in L5 starts last season) and that he'll be up against a very inexperienced TT secondary. Jones, who knows a thing or two about QBs has said this of Gilbert: "he has the skills to go to the next level." Remember, Gilbert was once considered among the top 5 high school QB prospects in the country - he's got something to prove and knows he can change his life if he can put it all together this season. Obviously, this is an excellent opportunity (ESPN) to show the world what he can do. Obviously new Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury wants to win his debut. The former TT QB has brought some excitement to the program and I hope he ultimately does well there. However, lets keep in mind that he is the youngest coach in any BCS automatic qualifying conference and that he is giving up some experience in the coaching matchup vs. Jones here. Kingsbury, who threw for 5000+ yards here in 2002, inherits a Red Raider offense that averaged 355.9 ypg last season, among the best in the country. However, Seth Doege is no longer here at QB. Meanwhile, while Michael Brewer was supposed to be the replacement, he's out with a back injury. That leaves them very inexperienced here. Admittedly, Kingsbury's crew should score some points, as defense isn't exactly SMU's forte. That said, there are some concerns. Offensive line depth is a potential issue for the Red Raiders and their inexperienced QB; note that starting offensive guard Tony Morales is expected to be out. Note that tight end Jace Amaro is suspended for the first half. (He only played seven games last season and had more than 400 receiving yards.) Ultimately, in what could be a fairly high-scoring affair, I believe the experience factor at QB will help lead the Mustangs to AT LEAST a cover. 9* main event

I'm playing on ALABAMA. You guys surely already know the story behind this one. Notre Dame comes in undefeated while Alabama has a single loss. Yet, its the Tide which are laying more than a touchdown. That's going to have a lot of people tempted to take the points. I'm not one of them.

The SEC was down a little bit overall this season and I successfully played against some SEC teams (LSU, Florida) during the bowls. That said, this is still the best conference in the country and the teams at the top of the pack (Alabama, Georgia, A@M etc) are arguably better than any team in any other conference. The Tide did mix in a few weak teams - but took care of business accordingly.

The Irish did certainly beat some talented and big named teams, including Stanford. However, some of those teams (Oklahoma, USC, Michigan) weren't as dominant as they often are. Also, keep in mind that the Irish barely beat Purdue, Michigan, Stanford, BYU and Pittsburgh. All five of those victories came by a TD or less, three coming by a field goal.

Both teams can run the ball and both can play defense. However, I give the edge to Alabama in both those areas. I also give the Tide a significant advantage at the QB position. For the season, Alabama averaged 38.5 points per game. Notre Dame averaged 26.7.

While the Irish are 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine games played in January, the Tide are 7-2 SU/ATS their last nine January games. I believe Alabama's experience (and Saban's experience) here in the "big game" will prove helpful and I look for the Tide to ultimately pull away for a double-digit win. *10

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Aggies had a great year as come in as the favorite. I'm not convinced that they're the better team though.



The Aggies did win at Alabama and obviously deserve credit for that victory. They really didn't win that many other big games though. Their other SEC victories came against Arkansa, Ole Miss, Auburn, Miss State and Missouri. Those five teams went a combined 11-29 in SEC action, none finishing above .500. When matched up against other top tier SEC teams Florida and LSU, a pair of teams which both lost their bowl games, the Aggies were defeated. Arguably their hardest non-conf. game came against LA Tech and they only eked out a 2-point win in that one.



While they didn't beat Alabama the way that the Aggies did, Oklahoma did beat the likes of TCU, Oklahoma State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech and West Virginia. None of those were as big as the Bama win but they're all arguably at least as impressive, if not more, than any of the Aggies' other wins.



The Aggies may have a Heiman leader at QB. However, the Sooners have the career Big 12 leader in passing yards. Indeed, Jones is the first FBS quarterback ever to throw for at least 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns in four seasons.



The Sooners are 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they played with two or more week's worth of rest. Having hammered the Aggies by a 41-25 margin last season and going 8-1 the last nine meetings against them, the Sooners come in full of confidence. I expect them to step up and get it done. *10

I'm playing on OREGON. Both teams would have obviously preferred to be playing each other for the national title. However, there should be no lack of motivation on either side. That means it should come down to the players and coaches. With all due respect to K-State and Bill Snyder, for my money, the Ducks have the edge in both areas.

This Oregon team has dominated every team that it has faced, with the exception of Stanford. No other team has been able to keep up with them. They scored more than 40 points in every single game besides the Stanford one, defeating every opponent by double-digits.

Those blowout victories came against other capable and/or high-scoring teams like USC, Arizona, Washington, Arizona State and Oregon State. I believe that K-State is more like those teams than it is like Stanford, the one team which gave Oregon trouble.

K-State has certainly had an impressive season. However, I don't think the Wildcats have done as much as Oregon. While the Ducks' loss was a nailbiter, the Wildcats' lone loss came in blowout fashion, as they were destroyed at Baylor. Two of their other wins came by six or fewer points. They haven't seen a team like the one that they'll face tonight.

Note that the Wildcats failed to score 30 points in three of their final seven games, four times on the season.

While the pointspread might seem a bit high, consider that every Oregon win came by double-digits. Also, note that the Ducks are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as favorites in the 3.5 to 10 range. I expect them to "do their thing" and for the Wildcats to ultimately be unable to keep up. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Some people might be surprised that Louisville is here. I'm not one of those people. I won with the Cardinals in their first game of the season, a blowout win over instate rival Kentucky. A few months later, I also won with the Cardinals in their regular season finale against Rutgers, which served as a de facto Big East championship game.



I believe that the victory over Rutgers will provide the Cardinals with some real momentum here. That was a game that they trailed and where their QB (Teddy Bridgewater) was at far less than that 100%. However, Bridgewater and co. gutted out a win. They believe in each other and believe anything is possible.



Bridgewater would come off the bench to go 20 of 28 for 263 yards in the win over Rugters - pretty impressive numbers given how banged up he was and how stingy the Rutgers defense was. He would finish the season with 3452 yards and 25 TDs, completing 69% of his passes. While he'll be up against another tough defense here, the month off figures to have helped give Bridgewater time to heal.



The Gators are indeed one of the top teams in the country. They're not necessarily a team that wins by a wide margin though and they're going to be up against a tough and determined opponent.



A look at Florida's last five games shows four wins and a loss. Two of the wins came by only a touchdown and one of those was against lowly LA-Lafayette. Another win came by 11 points - still not enough to cover this large number. The only victory that came by greater than 11 was against Jackonsville State. Laying 37.5 points, the Gators would only score 23 points. Earlier in the season, they Gators have four other wins by two touchdowns or less.



The Cardinals have coaching stability, something many teams can't say. Charlie Strong reportedly could have had the job at Tennessee but instead decided to stay at Louisville.



Speaking of Strong, he knows a thing or two about the Gators, as he ran their defense from 2003 through 2009, his fourth different stint on the Gators' staff.



I expect Strong to have his Cardinals ready to play and I look for them to improve to 5-0 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 range. *10

I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE. I won with the Huskies way back on 9/1, their very first game of the season. They didn't win but they easily covered at Iowa. While the Hawkeyes didn't prove to be very good, that was still a solid effort for the Huskies, who would go on to have another excellent season. The class of the MAC, the Huskies come in confident here and with a chip on their shoulder. That helps. However, it'll only take a team so far, when matched up against a team which is also hungry and which has significantly superior talent. In this case, I feel that the Seminoles are better on both sides of the ball.

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. I successfully played "against" the Huskers in this bowl last year. Up against an SEC opponent (South Carolina) the Huskers were crushed by a score of 30-13. While the Huskers are again up against an opponent from the mighty SEC, I like how everything sets up for them and feel this is a far more favorable matchup.

True, the Huskers were hoping for more, as they could have been in the Rose Bowl. However, there's still plenty to play for. This is still a New Year's Day Bowl, the very one they got embarrassed at last year. Needless to say, they don't want that to happen again. Throw in the fact that they got blown out in that season finale and this should be a very hungry team.

Georgia, on the other hand, did not get blown out in the its last game. Its loss was even more devastating though. You likely saw it, or know about it. An all out war against Alabama; an exciting game that went back and forth.

Ultimately, the Bulldogs lost though and their run defense was exposed in the process. They were so very close to winning that game and they likely feel that they would have beaten Notre Dame, if given the chance. That makes playing in this bowl a tough pill to swallow.

Outside of the fact that I feel that the Huskers will be hungrier, I feel that they'll be able to have success on the ground (they're #8 in the country in rushing yards) and that the Bulldogs will have trouble slowing down Taylor Martinez, a style of QB they're unfamiliar with.

I expect the Bulldogs, 1-4 ATS the last five times that they played with two or more week's worth of rest, to have another fight on their hands the entire way. *10 Annihilator

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. I won with South Carolina in last year's bowl, as the Gamecocks wiped the floor with Nebraska. While I certainly still respect Spurrier and co, I feel that the Gamecocks are going to have considerably more difficulty against a Big Ten team this year.

If they didnt know better, some might think that Michigan played a much easier schedule than South Carolina, based on the the Wolverines hailing from the Big Ten and the Gamecocks coming from the SEC. However, the Wolverines faced both Notre Dame and Alalbama this year, the two teams playing the national championship game. The Wolverines also faced Ohio State, the nation's other undefeated team (They lost all three but two of the losses came by a TD or less.)

Additionally, the Wolverines had games against the likes of Michigan State and Nebraska. On the other hand, South Carolina got to avoid Alabama and had a non-conference slate which included Wofford and UAB. While the win over Georgia was impressive, lets not forget that the Gamecocks were blown out by Florida and that they lost vs. LSU, a team which lost yesterday.

The bottom line is that the SEC is still probably the best overall but the conference isn't as dominant as it has been in recent years. Top tier teams from other major conferences - like Clemson yesterday - can now compete and defeat teams near the top of the SEC. Don't be surprised to see it happen again this afternoon. *9

I'm playing on MISSISSIPPI STATE. The Wildcats had a terrific season at the betting window. Up against an SEC team, albeit a lower tier one, I expect their run to come to a crashing halt.

Needless to say, given its drought in the bowls, Northwestern wants this one. However, wanting and doing are entirely different matters and I'm not convinced that the Bulldogs will be any less hungry.

Obviously, we can't compare schedules. The Bulldogs had to face the likes of Alabama, LSU, Texas A@M, the first of those two both coming on the road. Their "easier" conference games came against the likes of Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee , Arkansas and Ole Miss. Those teams are more along the lines of what Northwestern faced and the Bulldogs went 4-1 in those games.

The Bulldogs crushed another Big Ten team (Michigan in the Gator Bowl) in the bowls last season, winning by a score of 52-14. With that rout, they're 2-0 in the bowls under Mullen and the school remains undefeated in the bowls for the millennium. I expect Mullen to have them ready to go again here. *9

I'm playing on CLEMSON. The line has climbed from its opener. Bettors seemingly can't believe that mighty LSU is laying such a small number. I feel that there's good reason though - and the higher this number climbs the better value I feel we're getting with a very good Clemson team.

Speaking of line value, lets start by mentioning that Clemson is 4-1 ATS the last five times it was an underdog in the 3.5 to 10 range, going 26-12-1 ATS its last 39 in that role.

LSU was only 4-7 ATS as a favorite.

True, the Clemson schedule was rather soft - however, you still don't get 10 wins without being pretty good. Clemson was only an underdog once all season. That was at Florida State. The Tigers lost but covered.

While LSU has the stingier defense, Clemson is a team which scored 37 or more points 10 times. Clemson ranks near the top of the nation in scoring (42.3 points per game), total offense (518.3 yards per game) and passing yards (319.6) per game.

In terms of wanting to be here, the edge should favor Clemson. After all, LSU is a team which is used to playing for national titles and expects to play in January.

Clemson began its seen with a win here at the Georgia Dome. Don't be surprised when it finishes the same way. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on TULSA. The Cyclones won the regular season meeting. That was at Iowa State though and the Golden Hurricane had an early lead.

The Golden Hurricane are obviously motivated to get some revenge, to win a bowl game and to match its single season record for wins. Off a win over Central Florida in the CUSA Championship game, its 10th victory if the season, Tulsa comes in full of confidence.

"It certainly gives you momentum. You want to go into bowl season with a win," coach Bill Blankenship said. "We're excited to be going to Memphis. That's big time."

Of course, that's easy for Blankenship to say considering that Tulsa is a dominating 15-5 SU/ATS the last 20 times that it was coming off a conference win.

While Conference USA doesn't get much respect, we've seen teams like UCF, SMU and Rice look pretty good already. Tulsa had a better record than any of those teams.

The Cyclones, who stumbled down the stretch, have the 113th-ranked pass defense in the FBS, allowing 279.7 yards per game. The run defense isn't likely to be as stout as it could be either, as Iowa State likely won't have three-time All-Big 12 linebacker and captain Jake Knott; he's still recovering from shoulder surgery.

Iowa State's only victory since October came against Kansas, the worst team in the Big 12. (Jayhawks were 0-9 in Conference play, 1-11 overall.) The last two losses came against WVU and Texas, a pair of teams which weren't exactly dominant in their recent bowl games. (Texas won but needed to rally, WVU got blown out.)

The Cyclones are 3-8 all-time in the postseason and 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games.

In terms of line value, consider that Tulsa was actually a small favorite for the earlier game at Iowa State. Now, even though that was on the road and this is at a neutral site AND even though Tulsa has played better in recent weeks, the Golden Hurricane are a slight dog. Even with the loss back in September, the Hurricane are still 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they played a game where the line ranged from the +3 to -3. I feel that they're the better team and I expect them to step up and improve on those stats this afternoon. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. While I respect the Horned Frogs, I expect them to lose this game.

The Spartans are better than their record indicates. With the exception of an early loss vs. Notre Dame, none of their other losses have come by four points. In other words, they easily could have a better record. While I'm already a believer, this game gives the Spartans an opportunity to show the rest of the world that they're better than the record suggests.

Coach Dantonio noted: "We haven't had a football game where we've lost in a big way. They've all been close. One play here, one play there, we're a different football team."

He'd go on to say this of his team's confidence level: "We want to point our compass north. I believe the glass is half full, not half empty. That's how our football team expects to play. We come ready to play every week. We'll play with confidence."

The Frogs, who lost QB Casey Pachall midseason, were last in the Big 12 with 3.9 yards per carry on the ground. I believe they're going to have a tough time moving the ball against a Michigan State defense that ranked fourth in the FBS allowing only 274.5 yards per game.

Ultimately, in a battle of two strong defenses, I feel the Spartans will find a way to score more points. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Beavers have had the better year. They've got the higher ranking and they're favored at the betting window. However, I believe that the Longhorns are still the more talented team and I expect them to come ready to play, with a chip on their shoulder.

Give the Beavers credit for a great turnaround, as they were a 3-win team just last year. Still, they only won three of their final six games, one of those wins coming against Nicholl State.

Brown has enjoyed excellent success in the Bowls over the years and tends to fare very well when given time to prepare his team. In fact, the Longhorns are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the last five times that they played with two or more week's worth of rest. (They did lose at TCU with some extra time in between games but that wasn't two full weeks)

A look at those five games shows that the Longhorns won by five at Oklahoma State earlier this season. They won last season's bowl games against another Pac-12 team, knocking off Cal by a score of 21-10. Earlier in the season, they wiped out Kansas 43-0 and Iowa State by a score of 37-8. Prior to that, it was an upset win at Nebraska in the 2010 season, a 20-13 victory in a game where the Longhorns were large underdogs. Anyway, you get the point that I'm trying to make. When given time, Mack Brown really knows how to get his team ready.

The Longhorns, perhaps playing for Brown's job, are playing in their home state, a familiar environment. Brown and co. desperately need a win here, or their fans are going to become extremely "restless." I feel that the well-prepared Longhorns will have an edge in the trenches and look for them to step up and score the upset. *10

I'm playing on NAVY. I played against the Midshipmen when they failed to cover vs. Army a few weeks ago. However, I also backed the Midshipmen when they won outright vs. Air Force and I still respect them as a team. I feel that they're offering excellent value here.



The Midshipmen are getting a lot of points here and they've performed well in the underdog role for many years. They're 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were underdogs, winning all three outright. They're 9-6 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons and 13-7 ATS the last 20. Going back still further finds them at 81-50-1 ATS as underdogs the past 132.



The Sun Devils are off a win at Arizona, their second straight victory. That was fairly impressive - although it should be noted that it came by only a touchdown. However, those instate rivalry games are a little different, in that there are different emotions in play.



The Sun Devils' previous win did come in "blowout fashion." However, that was against a Washington State team which lost by double-digits six times this season. Prior to those two victories, Arizona State had been on an 0-4 SU/ATS streak.



Navy really isn't getting much respect. However, I agree with ASU coach Graham when he said this of the Midshipmen: "I can tell you they'll be a formidable opponent. They're very different, very difficult, very well-coached, very disciplined ... "



The Midshipmen, who have faced the likes of #1 Notre Dame, won't be intimidated. They've won seven of their last eight and the eight of their last 10. Both losses came by 12 or less. I'll gladly grab all those points. *9

I'm playing on SYRACUSE. With a big name QB, an early front-runner for the Heisman, the Mountaineers are favored and are likely going to be a popular pick. The Orange know all about Geno Smith though and come in full of confidence. I feel that they're providing us with very fair value.



Formerly members of the same conference, these teams are very familiar with each other. While the Moutaineers had their way with the Orange early in this millennium, its been Syracuse which has had the edge in the "Smith era."

Syracuse beat WVU 19-14 in 2010 and 49-23 last year. The Orange picked off Smith five times in those games, sacking him nine times. He had just three TDs.



While he's not nearly as well known, the Orange have a very capable QB of their own. Ryan Nassib, a senior, threw for more than 3600 yards this season, setting a school record. He'll be facing a WVU defense that gave up more than 38 ppg.



The Orange averaged 473 yards, nearly as many as WVU's 518. Their 458 on the road was roughly the same as WVU's 478 on the road. Yet, on the other side of the ball, the Syracuse advantage is considerably more significant. Syracuse allows 385 ypg compared to WVU's 470. The Orange allow 25.7 ppg compared to the Mountaineers' 38.1.



Syracuse coach Doug Marrone is from the Bronx. Playing at Yankee Stadium, I expect him to have his team ready to play. *9

I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. I played against Rutgers in the loss vs. Louisville, which was the Knights most recent game. I also played against the Knights in their previous game, a 27-6 loss vs. Pittsburgh. Many were surprised by those losses, as the Knights were 9-1 prior to that. Obviously, I wasn't. I'm still not completely sold on this team and think they'll be in over their heads against what I expect to be a very determined Virginia Tech team.

Yes, its been a down stretch for the Hokies. They're still a very talented team and proud though. One which has seen its reputation take a bit of a hit recently and which will be looking to get some of it back here with a big win.

Rutgers has a good defense. However, I believe that its not a great defense - not as good as the numbers suggest, at least. Playing a soft schedule (Howard, Tulane etc) has helped. Keep in mind that the Knights allowed 20 or more points in all three losses.

The Knights struggle on offense and thats where I expect the Hokies to have an edge.

Rutgers averages 22.4 ppg and 341 ypg. Playing arguably a much tougher schedule, V-Tech averaged 26.1 and 391.8.

Lets not forget that the Knights had dreams of a much bigger bowl, only a few weeks ago. They'll say all the right things. However, I believe that there's the real potential for a bit of a letdown here. Not so with the Hokies, who I expect to rise to the occasion with a big win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on OHIO. After winning seven straight to begin the season, the Bobcats initially had dreams of a bigger bowl. That can sometimes lead to a team going through the motions a bit and not really wanting to be in the "lesser" bowl that the it ends up in. However, I don't expect that to be the case here.

The Bobcats lost four of their last five games. That gives them something to prove. They want to show the world that they're not the fraud that many say they are.

I also believe that the Warhawks will be very motivated, as they're playing in their first bowl game, since joining the FBS. I'll call it a wash in the motivation department.

While the Warhawks did earn an impressive win vs. Arkansas, the Razorbacks weren't as good as they often are. Likewise, playing Auburn tough wasn't as impressive as it would be in a normal year, when the Tigers were stronger. Playing Baylor tough was pretty good - however, that came before the Bears had really got going. While its debatable, I'd argue that Ohio's road at Penn State was every bit as impressive, if not more, than anything LA-Monroe has accomplished.

Either way, I do believe that the Bobcats will have some edges on the field and feel this game will likely be closely contested.

Ohio's Tyler Tettleton doesn't often hurt his team. He completed 62.0 % of his passes for better than 2,500 yards. He also had an impressive 16/3 TD/INT ratio.

Tettleton noted: "We're eager and hungry to get back out there."

The Bobcats have "bowl experience" on their side, as this is their fourth straight. They won by one (24-23 vs. Utah State) last year.

Speaking of close games, the Bobcats played six games which were decided by 10 or fewer points this season, five of them decided by a TD or less and three decided by a field goal.

Likewise, the Warhawks have seen five games decided by six or fewer points.

The Warhawks are 4-7 ATS their last 11 off a win vs a conference rival, 3-10 ATS the last 13 times that they played with two or more week's or rest and 5-15 ATS the last 20 times that they were off a win of six or less. Meanwhile, the Bobcats check in at 5-3 ATS the last eight times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range and 3-1 ATS off two or more consecutive losses. In a game that could easily again come down to the wire, I'm grabbing all those generous points. *10 Annihilator

I'm playing on DUKE. I believe that this will be a case of the Blue Devils being happier to be here.

After a nearly 2-decade hiatus from the bowls, Duke is back.

True, the Blue Devils did stumble down the stretch. However, this is an entirely new season - we've already seen teams like SMU and Central Florida, who weren't as "hot" as their opponent, win in blowout fashion.

Keep in mind that the Blue Devils faced some tough and/or unique opponents down the stretch - their last four games came against the likes of Florida State, Clemson, G-Tech and Miami.

Thrilled to be here, the Blue Devils will have the advantage of playing close to home, as this game is played at Charlotte.

Duke senior Conner Vernon noted: "It's kind of just one of those things to leave our legacy at Duke football. Not only the first senior class to go to a bowl game since '94 but the first senior class to win a bowl game since a long time. That's definitely the mindset we're going to have going into it."

While the Bearcats have the better record, they really didn't play a very difficult schedule. They did knock off V-Tech (an ACC team that beat Duke) but the rest of their non-conf. schedule was very soft.
Plus, the Big East was quite weak this season.

This is still a team which won only four of its final seven with losses coming against Toledo, Louisville and Rutgers. The wins came against UConn, USF, Temple and Syracuse. Those four teams went a combined 19-31 this season. Other victories came against the likes of Fordam, Delaware State and Miami Ohio. (The Bearcats were laying more than 100 combined points in those games.)

While the Blue Devils have stability at the head coach position, the Bearcats are having to deal with yet another coaching change. Butch Jones has bolted for the greener pastures of Tennessee. Remember, the team has also lost coaches Brian Kelly and Mark D'antonio in recent years, both of whom also used the Cincy job as a springboard for bigger and better things. Defensive coordinator Steve Stripling will coach this game, with Tommy Tuberville taking over next season.

We just saw a team in a similar situation (Western Kentucky was also being coached by its defensive coordinator) get upset last night. Don't be surprised if we seen another upset here. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. The MAC Conference hasn't fared too well in the bowls thus far. Both Ball State and Toledo were blown out. Meanwhile, LA-Lafayette beat East Carolina, leaving the Sun Belt at 1-0. Those results are among the reasons that many are likely going to favor Western Kentucky in this matchup. I believe that the Hilltoppers, who also lost against LA-Lafayette, are a bit of a fraud though and feel that the value lies squarely with the underdog.

The Hilltoppers made some noise early in the season, as they covered six straight games out of the gate. However, that was in large part due to the fact that they were under-valued by the betting public.

As bettors clued in to the fact that the Hilltoppers were raking in the profits, the line value on them began to disappear. The team would finish the season on a 2-4 ATS streak.

A closer look at the Western Kentucky schedule reveals that the Hilltoppers actually only won three games by more than eight points all season and those were all back in September, one of them coming against Austin Peay. Their final four games were ALL decided by five or less and three of them resulted in losses.

Not surprisingly, the Hilltoppers fared very well as underdogs but stumbled when laying points. They're 5-8 ATS the last 13 times that they were favored.

Not only do the Hilltoppers have trouble winning by a large margin, they're also dealing with a shake up in their coaching ranks. The man who got them here - Willie Taggart - is gone. Bobby Petrino will coach next season. That can certainly be a distraction and is less than ideal.

Neither Petrino nor Taggart will coach here though. Instead, it will be defensive coordinator Lance Guidry calling the plays. To his credit, Guidry did win in a similar situation when with Miami Ohio a couple of years ago. Still, as noted, I believe that this is "less than ideal."

Of course, it should also be noted that Guidry will be without his best defensive player and arguably their best player overall, Quanterus Smith. If you watched the Hawaii Bowl, you saw what a huge impact a single dominant defensive lineman can be. Smith, a defensive end, was that type of player for Western Kentucky. Not only was he the defensive player on the year in the Sun Belt, he also led the entire country with 1.25 sacks per game, finishing with 12.5 in 10 games.

While the Hilltoppers stumbled down the stretch and are dealing with a coaching shake up, the Chippewas closed the season by playing their best football. They were 3-0 SU/ATS their final three games. They also scored at least 30 points in each of their final six games. Additionally, they've got a coach in his third year and are very excited to be here.

Athletic director Dave Heeke noted: "We are thrilled to be back in Detroit for a bowl game."

Of course, Mount Pleasant (Michigan) is only about 150 miles to Detroit while Western Kentucky has to travel about three times as far.

I won't be at all surprised when Central Michigan wins this game and am grabbing all those generous points. *10

I'm playing on SMU. The Bulldogs have certainly had an impressive season under first year coach Tim DeRuyter. After going 4-9 under Pat Hill in the WA455616AC last season, the Bulldogs replaced Hill, jumped over to the Mountain West and promptly proceeded to go 9-3, including a 7-1 mark in conference play. While the Bulldogs would surely love to cap things off with a bowl win, its already been a very successful season.

The Mustangs should be very happy to be here, as they began the season with a 2-4 record and didn't become bowl eligible until their final game, a 35-27 victory over C-USA champion Tulsa.

Coincidentally, the Bulldogs also faced Tulsa, losing 27-26 back in September.

Fresno State did blow out a lot of teams. However, their only victories against decent teams came against San Diego State, Nevada and Air Force.

While the Bulldogs are fairly tough against the pass, they were only 75th in the country against the run, which plays into the strength of the Mustangs.

Senior tailback Zach Line ran for more than 1200 yards this year, becoming the fourth player in C-USA history to record three straight seasons with more than 1000 rushing yards. Meanwhile, QB Gilbert ran for 111 yards in the regular season finale and has seven rushing scores on the season.

Of course, SMU coach June Jones has a personal connection to Hawaii, having coached here for nine years. He was quoted as saying this of the Hawaii Bowl: "Having been affiliated with this bowl since its inception, I know that it is one of the best bowl experiences in college football. I'm very excited for our players, staff and fans. This is a special experience."

You may recall that Jones' Mustangs beat Nevada by a score of 45-10 here in the 2009 Hawaii Bowl, a game they were listed as double-digit underdogs for. Don't be surprised if they step up and score another upset. *10

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I successfully played against the Broncos in their last game. The won but failed to cover vs. Nevada. I expect them to have an even tougher time this afternoon.

I successfully played against the Huskies in their regular season finale. Laying double-digits, they lost outright vs. rival Washington State in the Apple Cup.

That doesn't mean that I don't respect the Huskies, nor does it mean that they haven't had an excellent season. I do believe that it should provide them with some added motivation here though. A win here and that loss can be swept under the rug. However, a loss here and everyone will remember the Huskies team that lost the Apple Cup and then couldn't get it done in a bowl.

The Broncos are always well-coached. However, it still may be hard for them to get up for a lesser bowl game, as this program has become accustomed to striving for bigger games and this will now be their third straight season in the Las Vegas Bowl.

The Huskies played the much tougher schedule and have wins over the likes of San Diego State, Stanford, Oregon State and Cal.

This isn't the same dominant Boise team of years gone by. They lost vs. San Diego State and lost at Michigan State. They beat BYU by a single point and New Mexico by only three. Victories over Fresno State and Nevada were by 10 and six points. Those were arguably their tow most impressive victories, too.

The Huskies have played very well when given some extra rest in between games. They're 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were listed as underdogs, winning all three outright. I look for them to step up and earn AT LEAST another cover here. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. One of my first wins this college season was with BYU, as I backed the Cougars in their 30-6 win over Washington State way back in August. I also won with the Cougars in their 47-0 blowout of Hawaii. However, I also played against the Cougars when they lost against Utah while successfully playing on their game against Boise (7-6 final) to finish below the total. I feel that the Couars are going to be in tough here.

The Cougars really didn't beat many good teams. Their victory at Georgia Tech was arguably their most impressive accomplishment.

The Aztecs, who are playing in their home stadium. won at Boise and at Nevada. In fact, they've won seven straight overall, covering six of those.

Neither team likes each other - but the "hate" on the Aztecs side of the ball is arguably even greater.

You may recall that BYU bolted the Mountain West in 2010. Some of you may also remember that in the teams' final conference game at BYU in 2010, a botched replay review in BYU's favor helped the Cougars win 24-21. Later, it was revealed that the replay official was actually a BYU employee. Needless to say, the Aztecs would love to get some payback against a team that dominated them over the years.

I won with the Aztecs here two years ago (35-14 over Navy) and think the advantage of playing at home will prove to be significant once again.

Coach Rocky Long said. "When we got to the point that we were bowl eligible, we were hoping we were going to get to stay here at home for a lot of reasons. We wanted to stay home and play in front of and give our fans a chance to see us in a bowl game."

While the Cougars are 3-6 ATS the last nine times that they were laying points, the Aztecs are 8-4 ATS the last 12 times that they were listed as underdogs, four of those resulting in outright wins.

Out of respect for BYU's defense and the possibility of a game that comes down to the wire, I'll grab the points. However, I'm expecting another outright win for what I feel will be a highly motivated Aztec squad. *10

I'm playing on NEVADA. These two teams have some similarities. Both can score plenty of points and both also have a tendency to give up quite a few. Not surprisingly, we're seeing an O/U line in the mid-high 70s. I feel that the value lies with the underdog though, not the total.
The Wolfpack are 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as underdogs, including a 1-0 ATS mark as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range.
The Wildcats, on the other hand, have long been terrible when laying points. They're 41-71 ATS the last 100+ times that they were favored, including an awful 14-30 ATS mark when favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. that included a 3-6-1 ATS mark their last 10 in that role. Overall, the Cats were only 2-4 ATS as favorites this season.
While the Wolfpack do give up a high 32.5 points per game, the Wildcats give up 34.3. That number climbs all the way to 48.2 (and 543 ypg!) when the Cats play on the road. On the other hand, Nevada allowed fewer points (29.7 and 395.7 ypg) when playing away from Reno.
In fact, the Wolfpack were on the best on the road, winning five of six, the lone loss coming when they were playing on a short week, at Air Force.
While I won with the Wolfpack in last year's bowl, I like that this game comes earlier and feel that gives Nevada and its unique offense an edge.
If this bowl came in another week or two, Arizona would have had more chance to prepare for the Wolfpack's pistol offense. However, with this being the very first bowl game, that amount of preparation time is lessened.
As Nevada offensive tackle Jeff Nady noted: "The Pistol offense is a unique offense and the less time a team has to prepare for us, I think it gives us a slight edge. I do think this gives us a slight advantage based on the way our offense works."
Of course, motivation is always important to assess in these early bowl games. In this case, I expect the Wolfpack to be very hungry. This team has a strong senior class and they weren't happy with the way they closed out the regular season. They also aren't happy with their recent bowl record and this provides an excellent opportunity to improve in that area.
While I do believe the Wildcats will also want to win this game, I feel that there may be a little more disappointment with being here. Had they taken care of business against ASU in their regular season finale, they may been playing in the Sun Bowl instead. While it won't effect the players, its interesting to note that even some of the Arizona faithful may not be 100% focused on the game - as the Wildcats basketball team happens to host Florida later on Saturday, their biggest non-conf game.
Including their cover in the Hawaii Bowl last season, a game I attended, the Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS their last four games played in the month of December. I expect at least another cover on Saturday. *9

I'm playing on ARMY. I won with Army in last year's game. While they couldn't break through with an outright win, the Knights fought hard the entire way and earned the cover, losing by six.
Last year's 26-20 setback was the Knights' 10th straight loss in the series. Needless to say, they'd dearly love to snap that skid. I believe that the talent gap has really lessened and that this indeed could be the year that Army breaks through.
With both teams having beaten Air Force, the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy is in play, making the prospect of a victory even sweeter.
At 7-4, Navy checks in with the significantly better record. However, this year's team hasn't been dominated. They've outscored teams by a very narrow 25.5 to 23.5 margin.
All four Navy losses came by double-digits. However, three victories came by seven points or less. This season's Midshipmen are only 1-4 ATS as favorites.
Air Force was arguably the best team that Navy beat all season and the Midshipmen needed OT to win that one. Army, on the hand, hammered the Falcons by 20 points.
Like I said, I feel this could be the year. Wearing black WWII inspired uniforms, I expect the Knights to step up and earn AT LEAST another cover. *10

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. I successfully played against the Huskers just eight days ago. However, that was in large part because I felt that they'd be looking ahead to this much bigger game (even though they did need to beat Iowa) and also because they were playing on a short week and in what I felt was going to be a difficult environment. Here's an excerpt from that writeup:

"...Most are probably expecting a blowout here. The Huskers still need a win here to get to its first Big Ten Championship game while Iowa has lost five in a row. That sentiment has led to a very high line with the home underdog Hawkeyes getting more than two touchdowns. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. I still believe this Iowa team, which hasn't lost six in a row for more than a decade, has some pride. This is their final game and I expect them to treat it like their bowl game, rising to the occasion with their best effort. While even their best effort may not be enough for a win, it should allow them to remain competitive. With this being an early Friday game, after Thanksgiving, Bo Pelini knows its potentially going to be a difficult spot. He noted: "The challenge is going to be to come back in a short week and be ready to go on the road ... " Pelini went on to say this of the Hawkeyes: "We have a lot of respect for their program ... they're gonna play hard, there's a tremendous amount of pride and tradition in that program. It's their Senior Day, there's a lot of things that are going into it for them ... " Iowa is still only giving up 23.8 points per game, just 22.5 at home. On the other hand, Nebraska has allowed an average of 37.7 (453 ypg) on the road. The Hawkeyes have only been home underdogs in the +14.5 to +17 range twice in more than a decade. They covered each of those games and I look for them to do it again here ..."

Things are different here though. Instead of playing on a short week, the Huskers are now well-rested. They also should be 100% focused on the task at hand.

Also, while they failed to cover, the Huskers did still win by six at Iowa. That'd be more than enough here. They've won six straight overall, the last five all wins all coming by more than a field goal. Meanwhile, the Badgers have lost two in a row and three of four. Their lone victory during that stretch came vs. lowly Indiana.

Indeed, many are questioning whether the 7-5 Badgers, who are here only thanks to Penn State and Ohio State being ineligible, even belong in this game.

While the Badgers would like to prove they belong, with a trip to the Rose Bowl on the line, I expect the Huskers to prove otherwise. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. Both teams are off a disappointing effort against an instate rival last game. The Yellow Jackets were blown out at Georgia. The Seminoles were upset at Florida. I feel that those results favor the Yellow Jackets in this game.

Florida State Coach Jumbo Fisher acknowledged that the team that wins this game is likely the one that will be able to better recover/regroup from last week's loss. He was quoted saying: "I don't think there's any doubt. They had a great rivalry game and we did too. You've got to be able to put it behind you quickly and go on. I think that is going to be a big factor, I don't think there's any doubt."

Naturally, the Yellow Jackets wanted to knock off the Bulldogs. However, given that they were double-digit underdogs, the loss wasn't completely unexpected. The Yellow Jackets are being told that they "don't belong" here and I expect them to be highly motivated to prove otherwise.

On the other hand, the Seminoles were favored by a touchdown for their game vs. the Gators. They fell behind early, rallied back and then came up short. As if losing to their instate rivals wasn't bad enough, that loss killed the Seminoles' hopes of playing for the national title. I feel that will be a very tough pill to swallow and that the Noles may be a little flat here.

Making matters worse for the Seminoles, senior defensive end Cornellius "Tank" Carradine went down in the loss against the Gators and will be unavailable.



Off the devastating loss and without one of their top defensive players, preparing for G-Tech's unique offense may prove challenging.



Keep in mind that before last week's loss at Georgia, the Yellow Jackets had scored 33, 68 and 42 points in their previous three games.



The Noles are only 4-8 ATS when laying points this season. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on TEXAS. Some are going to look at this game and think the following: If K-State beat Oklahoma and if Oklahoma pounded Texas, then K-State will also surely blow out Texas. That type of logic rarely works when handicapping football games though. Each matchup is unique and has its own situational factors to consider. Also, each matchup is entirely different and some teams simply match up better against others. There are numerous examples of this in all sports. (While Mike Tyson might have crushed guys that would give Evander Holyfield a tough fight, Holyfield had Tyson's number each time that the two matched up against each other.) In this case, I feel everything sets up nicely for a play on Texas.

Also, if looking at common opponents, one could argue that Texas beat Baylor, a team that just destroyed K-State by a score of 52-24.

Personally, I'm more concerned with the effect the the loss to Baylor will have on the Wildcats here. Keep in mind that this was a team which was really starting to believe that it was destined to play in the National Title game. Each week, that hope grew. Then, suddenly it was snatched away from them. While the Cats have much to play for and surely want to bounce back with a big win, I really feel that it will be a difficult loss to bounce back from. While Snyder has proven to be a master coach of the years, seeing your national title dreams dashed this late in the season is a very tough pill for any team to swallow.

While the Wildcats have had a bye to "recover," that could potentially make it even worse. Note that K-State is just 2-4 ATS its last six after a bye.

The Longhorns lost at a "neutral" site vs. Oklahoma and they've struggled to cover the number at home. However, they've quietly gone 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their four true road games.

While they don't get much respect at the moment, this is still a very talented Longhorns team, one which has only lost by more than a touchdown once all season.

While we have to go back some years, the Longhorns are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here and won't be at at all surprised if they "shock" the Wildcats with an outright win. *10

I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. I respect the Panthers. In fact, I successfully played on them just last week. They rewarded me with a convincing 27-6 win over Rutgers. However, that was at home and the pointspread. And, with a line in the pick'em range, the pointspread essentially wasn't a factor. This week, the Panthers are being asked to lay quite a few points, while also playing on the road. I believe that's asking too much.

Lets not forget that the Panthers are still a sub-500 team. Also, note that they're 0-3 ATS the last few seasons, as road favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. During that stretch, they're just 5-10 SU on the road overall.

Yes, the Panthers are desperate to get to .500 to have a shot at a bowl. However, I expect the Bulls to be every bit as motivated. This is a fairly talented USF team which has underachieved greatly this season. While a win here won't make up for months of frustration, it will greatly help ease the pain. Indeed, the Bulls would surely love to ensure that the Panthers join them watching the bowls on TV. Misery loves company.

Bulls' defensive tackle Cory Grissom had this to say: "That's what we've been talking about. Just make sure if we can't go to a bowl, they can't go. That's out mind-set ... "

Not only would the Bulls like to do some spoiling, they'd love to close the season on a positive note while also showing support for coach Skip Holtz to retain his job.

Additional motivation comes from the fact that the Bulls were blown out at Pittsburgh last season.

USF defensive tackle Luke Sager noted: ''If anything, it gives us more reasons to be up for this game. Last year, they embarrassed us."

Playing without senior QB BJ Daniels is obviously a blow - as he's led this team in recent years. However, Daniels isn't the only senior on the roster, as this will be the final game for 25 USF seniors, all that want to go out as winners. QB Matt Floyd now has a game under his belt, which should help.

Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dave Huxtable said this of Floyd: 'He's a young kid, but he's going to be a good player .. he does a nice job of handling the offense. He has a nice arm and does some good things throwing the football.''

Coach Holtz said this of winning today's game and sending the seniors out on a winning note: "Without a doubt, it's big. We want to send out the seniors on a positive note. With as much adversity as we've been through the past two years, as hard as they've worked, as hard as they've played, to just fall short, just fall short, just fall short. Those frustrations, yes, a win would go a long way toward erasing those frustrations. Give those seniors a chance to walk out with a positive taste in their mouth. One thing this senior group won't do is quit. I know it's been frustrating. It would go a long way to get a win.''

The Bulls have been terrible as favorites but their tendency to play close games has them at 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they were listed as underdogs or games that were "pick'em." I expect them to go all out the entire way and look for at least another cover, likely an outright wn. *10 Big East GOY

I'm playing on NEVADA. I had a big play on the Wolfpack the last time that these teams met here, just a little over two years ago. Listed as double-digit underdogs, Nevada would shock the Broncos in that 11/26/10 contest, winning 34-31. Boise was ranked #3 at the time and was looking to play in a BCS bowl game. I feel that the Wolfpack have an excellent shot at pulling off another shocker this afternoon.



Always well-coached, as usual, the Broncos are a very good team again this year. However, I don't think that they're quite as strong as some of the Boise teams of the past. Recent blowout wins have them looking pretty good. However, the opposition (Hawaii and Colorado State) was hardly top tier. Prior to facing those two lightweights, the Broncos lost to San Diego State.



A look at the schedule shows that the Broncos have really only faced four "decent" teams - and none of those are exactly "elite." The four teams that I refer to as decent are Michigan State, BYU, Fresno State and San Diego State. (Other games came against Colorado State, Hawaii, Wyoming UNLV, Southern Miss, New Mexico and Miami Ohio.) As noted, the Broncos lost outright vs. SD. State. They also lost a close one vs. Michigan State, getting dominated statistically. They beat Fresno by 10 but only squeaked by BYU by a 7-6 score.



In other words, all four games against quality opposition were decided by 10 or fewer points and three of those were decided by four or less.



With games at California, (31-24 win) vs. South Florida (32-31 loss) and at Air Force (48-31 loss) the Wolfpack have arguably played more quality teams.



Also, note that the one common opponent which defeated both Nevada and Boise is SD State - and the Wolfpack played them arguably tougher than the Broncos did, losing 39-38.



While the Wolfpack have already accepted an invitation to a bowl (New Mex. Bowl) game, I certainly don't expect them to go through the motions at all. They hate the Broncos and would love nothing more than to beat them.



Boise coach Peterson noted: "...I think it will be a hard fought game." He went on to say this of the Wolfpack: "They always have good running backs, and I think that comes with the pistol offense. Jefferson has been in the program for a while now and has a great feel for finding creases, it's a difficult offense to defend, it really is."



Even after the recent big wins, this year's Broncos are still averaging a modest 30.7 points on the season, on the strength of only 386 yards per game. That's be ok for some teams. However, its not up to Boise's usual recent standard. Indeed, last year's team averaged more than 44 points per game.



Its also not up to the level of offense that Nevada has produced this season. The Wolfpack check in averaging 38.5 points per game. They average more than 530 yards of offense per game here. (Admittedly, the Broncos have the edge on the other side of the ball.)



While the Wolfpack haven't been a good bet for most of the season, I've fared well in picking my spots on and against them. In fact, I believe that the only time that I played "on" them all year was at Hawaii, one of only two ATS victories. The Wolfpack were favored by a touchdown and they won by a score of 69-24. I feel this is another excellent spot for them. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. While they haven't been covering the spread recently, the Sooners continue to win. The recent non-covers have been one of the factors which have helped in keeping this line below a touchdown. I believe that's offering us very fair value with what I believe to be a superior team.

In a strange twist of fate, the Sooners are actually cheering for arch-rival Texas today. If the Longhorns can beat K-State, then the Sooners can still win the Big 12 outright. Of course, the Sooners need to take care of TCU here first. That makes this a very big game, one Stoops and co. can't afford to mess around with. That's particularly true, given that they won't know the outcome of the K-State game until later in the day. (As there is no longer a Big 12 Championship game, if both the Sooners and Wildcats win today, or if they both lose, then K-State wins based on holding the tiebreaker, having beaten OU when the teams went head-to-head.)

While the Frogs were better defensively last time out, these teams have similar defensive stats on the season, at least in terms of points allowed. The Sooners are allowing 24.8 points per game and 381.4 yards per game. On the road, they're allowing 23.4 and 394.4. Meanwhile, TCU is allowing 23 and 329.9. At home, the Frogs are allowing 24.6 ppg.

Its on the other side of the ball where the Sooners figure to have the edge. They 41.7 ppg, averaging 512.8 yards. On the road, those numbers actually climb; they average 42.6 and 547.8 away from Norman. Meanwhile, the Frogs average 30.5 and 401.3. Respectable but significantly less than the Sooners.

Given how competitive they've been over the years, one might assume that the Horned Frogs have been a good bet as home underdogs in this range. That hasn't been the case, however, as they're only 3-9 ATS (1-11 SU!) the last dozen times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range.

Including the earlier cover at Texas Tech (41-20 win on 10/6) the Sooners are 2-1 ATS the past couple of seasons as road favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range, 1-0 this season. I expect them to pull away and win by more than a touchdown. *9

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. I backed the Cardinals in their very first game this season, a 32-14 victory over Kentucky. While it wasn't a big secret, at the time, I pointed out that Louisville was poised for a big year while Kentucky was going to struggle. Now, here we are with the Cardinals playing for the Big East Championship and the conference's berth in the Orange Bowl. While the Big East won't get its first championship game until next season, this game will serve as a "de facto title contest."

Both teams lost last week. Rutgers got crushed by Pittsburgh. The Cardinals were narrowly upset by UConn, Louisville QB Bridgewater breaking his left wrist in the process. While Bridgewater left that game, he did come back to rally his team, leading them to OT. The Cards have had a couple of practices to figure out what he can and cannot do and I expect them to be ready.

Even with a banged-up Bridgewater, the Cardinals have the superior offense. They averaged 32 ppg, including 30 ppg on the road. Rutgers, on the other hand, averaged only 22.9 ppg, 23.8 at home. The Knights' offense has really struggled in recent games too, managing only 16 combined points the past two games.

While everyone will talk about Bridgewater's wrist. Rutgers has QB issues of its own. QB Nova was briefy knocked out of the Pittsburgh game. He would finish with only 157 yards, completing 18 of 37 passes, less than 50%, while throwing another interception. Remember, Nova had six interceptions in a loss vs. Kent State last month.

Obviously, both teams really want the win. Motivation levels should be equal. The Knights have homefield advantage. However, I believe that the Cards are a little stronger. They've also shown an ability to win here, dominating Rutgers by a 40-13 score last time here.

Last year's game at Louisville was much closer (16-14) but the Cardinals won that one too. The recent wins in the series should help their confidence, a good thing after back to back losses.

Overall, despite failing to cover a few this year, the Cardinals are still a lucrative 11-4 ATS (10-5 SU) their last 15 road games.

With Rutgers games averaging less than 37 combined points on the season, we've got an O/U line in the low 40s. That's noteworthy, as the Cards are 7-0-1 ATS the last eight times that they played a road game where the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 45.

Admittedly, playing a road game on a short week, after a triple-OT game is not normally "ideal." However, a berth in a BCS game isn't normally on the line either and that added adrenaline can go a long way in helping a tired team keep going

The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were off a conference loss, 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were off back to back losses. With it all on the line, I look for them to find a way. *10

I'm playing on HAWAII. While I haven't been right with them every single time, I've had a pretty good feel for the Warriors this season, correctly picking several spots to play both on and against them. Last week, I played on them when they broke through with a cover at Air Force. This week, I look for them to take it a step further and come away with the outright win.

UNLV may have covered the spread as an underdog a few times this season but that doesn't mean that the Rebels are deserving of laying points on the road. While the Rebels have won a couple at home, they're 0-5 on the road. They've been outscored by a 36.4 to 15 margin in those games, getting outgained by an average margin of 485 to 314. Going back further finds the Rebels at 0-20 SU and 3-16-1 ATS their last 20 away from home. Again, I feel they have no business laying points when they have yet to prove that they can even win away from home.

In fairness, UNLV has played at some fairly tough venues this season. However, a 33-11 loss at Colorado State in their last away game, against a poor Rams team, was revealing. They were outgained by a 340-219 margin there. (Hawaii also lost at Colorado State. However, the Warriors actually outgained the Rams by a 393-291 margin.)

While this is the final game for the Rebels, I'm not sure how motivated they'll be. Last week was their home finale and they fought really hard only to come up a little short. Now in Hawaii and knowing that even a win here will do little to salvage their season, it may be easy to get distracted.

On the other hand, I believe that the Warriors will really want this one. Norm Chow is in his first year here and badly wants to close their Mountain West season on a good note, by winning their final conference game, which would be their first MWC win of the season.

Note that Hawaii has had an extra day off than UNLV. The Warriors last game was Friday while the Rebels played Saturday.

Opportunities for victories have been few and far between for the Warriors. As seen by the above stats, they squandered a chance to win at Colorado State. They also came up short vs. New Mexico, which was disappointing for them. However, outside of those games, their last five opponents have been vs. Boise State, at Fresno State, at San Diego State, at BYU and vs. Nevada.

None of those were really winnable games and neither was their opener at USC. (They did win 54-2 when stepping down in class to host Lamar.) The Rebels offer a much better matchup for them though.

Wearing special red, white, and blue uniforms and helmets by Under Armour, I look for the Warriors to step up and score the upset. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Sooners haven't been covering lately but they have been winning. That has helped keep this line very reasonable. With an outright Big 12 title back in play, I expect the Sooners to keep on rolling, this time covering the small number along the way.



This game has plenty of meaning for both teams. I believe it means a little more to Oklahoma, however. QB Landry Jones, who threw for 554 yards and six TDs last game, had this to say: "Big Game. Final home game for the seniors. Final home game for myself, so obviously I'd love to go out there and I'd love to play to the best of my capabilities.''



The Sooners also have payback on their minds, after the Cowboys embarrassed them (44-10) at Stillwater last season. Keep in mind that the Sooners had won the previous eight in the series though and also that they've won every game here against the Cowboys since 2001.



Since the loss to OSU here in 2001, the Sooners are 4-0 SU/ATS as a host of their instate rivals, including a 27-0 shutout the last meeting here. The previous games here had scores of 52-9, 42-14 and 29-17.



Th3 Sooners are outscoring teams by a 39 to 21.6 margin at home, 40.8 to 22.5 overall. On the other hand, the Cowboys are being outscored by a 39 to 29.3 mark on the road.



A good team these past few years, one might assume that the Cowboys are a strong underdog. However, that's not the case. In fact, they're only 2-9 AT the last 11 times that they were getting points 0-2 ATS this season.



The Sooners are 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as favorites of eight or fewer points, 3-0 ATS their last three. I expect another win and cover here. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. These teams met here one year ago and the Demon Deacons were a very slight favorite. Now, they're getting double-digits. I feel that's providing us with a very generous line on what should be a desperate home underdog.



The Deacons still need a win to become bowl eligible. Coach Jim Grobe summed it up by saying:

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Rutgers comes in with the higher ranking and the better record. However, I expect Pittsburgh to be the team which emerges victorious.



While the Knights are trying to lock up (at least a share of) the Big East title, this figures to be a difficult spot. Not only is Pittsburgh a tough opponent, but its entirely possible that the Knights may be a little distracted by Tuesday's announcement that Rutgers will be leaving the Big East.



Distracted or not, I expect the Knights to find a desperate Pittsburgh squad waiting for them.



Keep in mind that the Panthers, who are leaving for the ACC next season, need wins in each of their final two games to become bowl eligible.



Pittsburgh receiver Devin Street noted: "We're definitely in touch with reality and what we have to do."



I actually played against the Panthers in their last game. (They were favored and lost outright at UConn.) However, that was on the road and a big part of the reason that I was playing against them was because they were off an absolutely heart-breaking(3-OT) loss vs. Notre Dame the previous week. Off that devastating loss and playing on a short week, I felt that the Panthers would have a difficult time bouncing back. (As expected they were flat out of the gate, falling behind 24-0 by halftime. I liked the fight they showed in battling back for a 24-17 final though.)



They've had plenty of time to recover now though, having last played on 11/9. On the other hand, the Knights last played on 11/17.



Note that Pittsburgh's senior QB Tino Sunseri threw for 302 yards and two TDs against UConn. He has completed an impressive 67.3 percent of his passes this season and has thrown only two interceptions. Over his last seven games he hasn't thrown an interception, a span of more than 200 attempts.



On the other hand, Rutgers' sophomore QB Gary Nova has thrown nine interceptions in his last three games.



Including the 20-6 win (as a 9.5 point favorite) at Buffalo on 10/20, the Panthers are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they were off b2b SU losses. I expect them to be ready to go right from the opening kick, earning the win and keeping their bowl hopes alive, for at least another week. *10

I'm playing on WASHINGTON STATE. The Huskies have enjoyed a much better season and enter with the superior record . However, to a certain extent, records can be thrown out the window in these rivalry games.

The Cougars desperately want to salvage their season and I expect them to be extremely hungry. Things didn't go quite the way fans were hoping in Leach's first year - but a win over the rival Huskies would go a long way in making that right.

Leach had this to say of Friday's Apple Cup: "I'm kind of looking forward to it ... I think they're already motivated. I think the biggest thing need to focus on is our effort, our work, our development."



While they've won four straight, the Huskies are laying a lot of points here. Two of the wins on their current streak came by 8 or less. Even with last week's win at Colorado, they're still 2-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 32.2 to 20.

While the Washington defense is currently receiving a lot of props, note that the Huskies have struggled against offenses that are a little "different" and that Mike Leach's system has its own "uniqueness."

The Cougars have played three of their last four on the road, starting with a cover at Stanford, a game they lost by only seven. Their last home, they covered against UCLA, losing by eight. For the season, they're averaging 27.7 points and 435.5 yards per game at home.

The Cougars have quietly gone 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record, moving to 10-3 ATS the past few seasons. They're 2-0 ATS the last two times that they were home underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range, 6-2 ATS their last eight in that role.

A look at the recent Apple Cup games here show that ALL five meetings since 2002, when the Cougars were the host, have been decided by a touchdown or less. In fact, four of those were decided by only a field goal. Don't be surprised when this one also proves much closer than anticipated. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on OHIO. Kent State has enjoyed an excellent season. However, I feel that this will be a tough spot. The Golden Flashes, who find themselves ranked in the AP poll for the first time since 1973, are trying to bolster their bowl resume while also finishing off the best season in school history. However, they already clinched the MAC East title and they've already got a date with NIU lined up for the MAC conference championship. Therefore, I feel it will be easy for them to look past Ohio.

That'll prove costly though. While the Bobcats have fallen on hard times of late, they've still had a very good season. Remember, they were 7-0 at one point. They don't have the MAC title game to look forward to and I feel that they'll be fully focused on the task at hand.

Ohio QB Tyler Tettleton, son of baseball player Mickey Tettleton, has completed 63 percent of his passes with 16 TDs against just two interceptions. He leads an Ohio attack with averages 444.3 yards and 32.8 points per game.

The Bobcats are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were off back to back losses. I expect them to step up and earn at least another cover here. *9

I'm playing on TEXAS. I respect TCU but I feel this line could easily be higher. Not only are the Longhorns in better current form, I believe that they're the more talented team.
The Longhorns have turned things around in a big way. They've won four straight, covering each of the last two. Their most recent performance was a dominant 33-7 victory over Iowa State.
That same Iowa State team beat the Horned Frogs (at TCU) by 14 points back in October. Including that setback, the Frogs are 2-4 their last six. They lost by double-digits to K-State last time out, falling to 1-3 SU/ATS their last four.
Both teams have had some extra time off. While the Frogs are 3-2 ATS their last five after a bye, the Longhorns are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS their last five, 28-19-1 ATS (38-10 SU) their last 48.
The rivalry with Texas A@M will be missed. The Longhorns closed out that chapter with a big win last year though. Now they renew an old rivalry with another instate foe, one they used to dominate many years ago. (Texas is 61-20-1 vs. TCU, most recently winning 34-13 in 2007.)) The Longhorns and their fans are excited and I feel that they're catching the Frogs are the right time. I expect a double-digit win. *10 NCAA Main Event

I'm playing on AKRON. I'll concede that Toledo has a stronger team. That's pretty obvious by the large pointspread and by the respective records of the two teams. That doesn't mean that the Rockets are a good bet here though.
I won with Toledo in its last game. The Rockets were large underdogs at Northern Illinois. I felt the line was too high and that Toledo would play the Huskies tough. They did just that, losing by seven as 10 point underdogs.
I may have been a little fortunate to cash with the Rockets in that one, as the stats show that they were outgained by a whopping 596-396 margin. Either way, the Rockets' tendency to play "close" games continued.
Many will likely expect the Rockets to be highly motivated to bounce back with a blowout win in their home finale. It would certainly help in proving that they were deserving of a bowl game. I'm sure they'd like an easy win, too. What team wouldn't?
However, off that big game vs. the Huskies and knowing that they're already "bowl eligible," I believe that its going to be hard for them to "get up" for this one.
The fact is that a bowl game isn't a guarantee for Toledo yet. The players and coaches probably believe that it is though and, given their OT loss at Arizona and overall record, as long as they win this game, I'd say they were deserving too. Looking ahead and/or thinking back to what could have been, could be a very real possibility.
On the other hand, Akron should truly want this game. This is all they've got left. Its been a miserable season and a win here would really go a long way in salvaging it. They've got a 1st year coach (Terry Bowden) who'd really like to show that progress has been made and to finish the season on a good note.
Note that the Zips have the schedule in their favor. While Toledo last played on 11/14, Akron last played on 11/10.
I successfully played against the Zips when they were blown out at Central Michigan. CMU was a single digit favorite and won by 21 points. I guess I picked my spot pretty well as that was actually the only time all season that Akron failed to cover on the road. The Zips enter this evening's game with a 4-1 ATS record away from Akron this season.
While the defense admittedly has some issues, this Akron team can score points and move the ball, regardless of venue. The Zips average 26.4 ppg and 435.8 ypg. Those numbers don't really take a dip on the road either as they're averaging 26 and 429 on the road. The Zips should be able to score against a suspect Toledo defense which allows 27.7 ppg and a very high 475.2 ypg. (That's more ypg than Akron allows.)
Prior to playing on the Rockets at NIU, I'd successfully played against them in each of their two previous games. In each case, they were favored and in each case, I cited their tendency to play close games. They would go on to lose outright at Ball State while winning by only five at Buffalo.
That makes it five straight Toledo games which were decided by seven points or less. In fact, ALL 11 Rockets games have been decided by 20 points or less this season. Ten of those were decided by 15 or less and eight were decided by 10 or less. I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *9

I'm playing on LOUISIANA. A low line suggests that these teams are quite equal. I don't believe that's the case.

The Ragin' Cajuns very nearly upset Florida last week. If they'd actually entered that game expecting to win, I'd potentially be concerned with a letdown here, as they did lose in rather heartbreaking fashion. However, as that was a game that they never thought they could win, I don't expect them to be too devastated from the tough loss. Rather, I expect them to gain confidence from the fact that they were able to go toe-to-toe vs. a team regarded as one of the best in the country.

That's a lot more than Western Kentucky can say. The Hilltoppers started the season very well and were on a great run at the betting window. Regulars will remember that we successfully played against them against Middle Tennessee State a couple of weeks ago though, when they lost outright as 9-point favorites. They followed that up by losing outright vs. FAU, failing to cover by 25 points. I believe that those losses indicate that all is not right for this team at the moment.

One of the big reasons I backed FIU over FAU last night (another Sun Belt game) was that I liked the QB play that the Panthers were getting from QB Jake Medlock. He came through with a 264-yard 2-TD performance in last night's 34-24 win. I also like the QB play that the Cajuns are getting.

Terrance Broadway took over as the starting quarterback in late September and he's been very solid ever since. He checks in with 1,795 passing yards, 328 rushing yards, and 17 total touchdowns. That goes against just six interceptions. While he didn't throw any TD passes, he completed 16-of-23 passes (171 yards) and didn't turn the ball over at Florida, which is pretty impressive given the Gators' stout defense. With four different receivers with greater than 375 receiving yards, Broadway knows how to spread it around.

The Cajuns are outscoring teams by a 39-20 margin on this field, outgaining them by a 435 to 301 margin. With last week's cover, they're now 7-2 ATS their last nine in November and 7-2 ATS their last nine against winning teams. They've been upset by the Hilltoppers each of the past two seasons. Now, its payback time. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ILLINOIS. While they're off a win at Iowa last week, I don't believe that the Boilermakers should be laying this many points here. Last week's victory came by just a field goal, at the buzzer. Prior to that, Purdue had lost five straight and was winless in Big 10 play.

Admittedly, the Boilermakers do have much to play for. If they win here and close out the season by beating Indiana at home, they can still become bowl eligible.

Keep in mind that they're playing the second of back to back road games here though, a situation that isn't typically kind to them. After covering the spread at Ohio State on 10/20, the Boilermakers got hammered at Minnesota the following week, losing 44-28 as slight favorites.

Illinois has certainly had a disappointing season. They're not giving anything away "talent-wise" here though and I expect the Illini to treat this game like its their "bow game." Keep in mind that its their home finale and that its a chance to play spoiler against a conference rival. Of course, the Illini would also like to claim the prized "Cannon Trophy," a little something to salvage the campaign.

Last year's game, at Purdue, was decided by seven points. The mot recent game here at Illinois saw the Illini win by a score of 44-10. With the Boilermakers 0-3 ATS their last three as road favorites, I'm grabbing the points with what I expect to be a highly motivated home underdog. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on COLORADO. I feel the home underdog is offering plenty of value here. While the Buffaloes have clearly had a disappointing season, this is arguably their "easiest" game in quite some time. Three of their last four games have come on the road and those games were at venues like Oregon, USC and Arizona. Their lone home game over the last month came vs. Stanford. The Huskies aren't slouches either. Still, a home game against them should provide an opportunity to at least stay competitive.

The Huskies are rarely road favorites, going just 1-2 SU/ATS in that role the past few seasons and 15-20 ATS since the early 90s. Laying this many points on the road, in conference play no less, is practically unheard for them.

Keep in mind that the Huskies are only averaging 22 points per game on the season an only 15 per game on the road. That makes winning by three touchdowns difficult.

Not only are they in an unfamiliar role but I feel that this will be a difficult spot for the Huskies, who are just 1-3 SU/ATS on the road this season. They're playing an "early" game (10:30 am their time) and they've got rival Washington State on deck. On a rare 3-game winning streak, given the situation, it would be easy to look past lowly Colorado.

While there isn't too much good one can say about the Buffaloes' season, it should be noted that they managed 437 total yards of offense against Arizona last week, something they can build on here. They broke through with a cover in that game and I look for them to follow it up with another one here. *Pac 12 GOM

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. Northwestern comes in with the better record, a much better one at the betting window. I believe that the Spartans are favored for good reason though.

The Spartans are off a much needed bye, allowing them extra time to prepare, heal and to lick their wounds. With three losses in four games and still needing a victory to become bowl eligible, the Spartans figure to be an angry bunch here.

The Wildcats may not be quite as "ferocious." They're already bowl eligible and they're off a hard-fought OT loss vs. Michigan last week. That was a real "heartbreaker" too, the kind that can be difficult to bounce back from.

While they've been able to have some success, the Wildcats are rather one-dimensional on offense; they can run the ball but can't throw it. The run game ranks 14th in the country but the pass attack is way down in 110th. I expect them to struggle against a stingy Spartan defense.

Granted, the Spartans' offense has been rather weak. I expect the offense to come to life here though. Last year, the Spartans scored just 10 points the game before their bye. However, they returned from the bye to win 28-14 against Michigan, easily covering.

Note that the Spartans topped the 30 mark against the Wildcats each of the last two years, going 2-0 SU/ATS. Going back further finds that they've scored more than 30 points in five of the last six series meetings. (They won the other won 24-14.)

The Wildcats are still 5-7 ATS the past few seasons off a conference loss while the Spartans are still 14-6 ATS their last 20 against a team with a winning record. I sense a double-digit win. *9

I'm playing on HAWAII. Air Force will undoubtedly be a popular pick in this one. Not only is Hawaii having a down year but bettors know, or at least they will learn, that the Falcons need a win, in order to become bowl eligible. With a much tougher game on deck (at Fresno State) for their finale, the Falcons know they need to take care of business tonight. That doesn't mean that they should be laying more than three touchdowns here though. Not the way that they've been playing recently.

The Falcons are off back to back blowout losses. Last week, they lost 28-9 at San Diego State. They were an underdog in that one though, so losing wasn't completely unexpected. However, a 41-21 loss vs. Army the previous week shows that this team currently has some issues.

To their credit, the Falcons did step up and beat Nevada the previous week, a 17-point victory. Their previous three games were all decided by seven or fewer points.

Looking back further finds that the Falcons only won one game by more than 21 points all season. That came way back in Week 1, a non-cover vs. 1AA Idaho State. Laying 31 points, they won by 28.

While tough in the underdog role, the Falcons are 1-6 ATS as favorites, 7-17 ATS the past few seasons.

Looking at some other stats finds them at 0-5 ATS the lat five times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63 and 23-42 the last 65 times that they were off a loss vs. a conference opponent.

True, its been a difficult season for the Warriors. This is a chance to play "spoiler" on National TV though and I expect Norm Chow to have his team believing that they have a real chance. They've had time to grow over the year and this is their chance to prove that to rest of the country.

The Warriors have thrown for 200 or more yards in four straight games, topping the 250 mark vs. Boise State last week. They're stepping down in class from last week and I expect them to find the end zone. Don't be surprised when this one proves much closer than many will expecting. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. This game, dubbed the "Shula Bowl" means a lot to each of these two "rivals." With FIU leaving the conference after the season, it arguably means more this season than ever.



FIU coach Mario Cristobal noted: "The rivalry games are the reason you play college football. They

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. Prior to a loss here in 2010, the Cavaliers had enjoyed a long run of success against the Tar Heels here. I like how this one sets up for them.

Without a doubt its been a disappointing season for the Cavs. However, they've turned things around recently and now can become bowl eligible by winning out. That won't be easy as they'll need to win this one and also win at V-Tech in their finale. Either way, I expect them to view this as their "bowl game."

While next week's game against the Hokies is obviously a very big instate clash, this game represents Virginia's home finale and is a rare chance to play a home game in front of a national TV audience. (This is the first Thursday night game in Charlottesville since the Cavaliers hosted North Carolina back in 2006.) In order for next week's game to have true meaning, the Cavs know they need this one first. This is also the longest rivalry in the south, as the teams have met every year since 1919.

True, North Carolina is a fairly talented team. However, the Heels are reeling a bit at the moment, with two losses in three games. They gave up 68 points in losing to G-Tech last week and now make the change from the Jackets' option style offense to the Cavs 2-QB system, while doing so on a short week.

Note that the Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS on the road, losing outright at Wake Forest, Louisville and Duke, Their lone road win came by four point, a game in which they were laying 7.5.

UNC is giving up an average of 544 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play its last three games. Virginia is giving up an average of 283 yards in its last three. They both played NC State a couple of games ago, their most recent common opponent. The Tar Heels hosted the Wolfpack and won 45-35. The Cavs faced them on the road yet won 33-6. NC State got 534 yards vs. UNC but only 216 vs. Virginia. Take the points. *10

I'm playing on TOLEDO. I've successfully played against the Rockets in each of their last two games. In each case, I felt that they were laying too many points. Tonight, however, Toledo is the team which finds itself in the underdog role. I believe the value has now shifted and that the Rockets will now prove to be the correct side.

The Huskies certainly boast an impressive record, both SU and ATS. Frankly, its hard to say too many bad things about them. I really feel they're laying a few too many points here though. Keep in mind that this same team was only laying 10 as a host of Central Michigan earlier. When hosting Kansas, the Huskies were 7 point favorites. I believe that this Toledo team is much better than either of those teams, yet we're getting every more points to work with. Keep in mind that the Rockets were a Top 25 program only a week ago AND that they beat CMU by 15, as an 11.5 point favorite. Yet, now they're a bigger dog than the Chippewas were here.

While the Huskies have many impressive stats, lets not forget that the Rockets are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season. They've only lost two games all season and both losses came by seven points. This is a team which averages 490 yards per game on the road, while winning four of five. The Rockets lone road loss came at Arizona, a game in which they covered the spread.

The Rockets entered the season as a relatively inexperienced team. However, they've gotten it done all season long, while growing up along the way. I look for their "close game experience" to serve them well here, as they provide the Huskies with a much closer contest than many were likely expecting. *10

I'm playing on OHIO. I won with Ball State last game while also successfully playing against Ohio. In both cases, I backed an underdog which won outright. The Cardinals earned an upset win at Toledo while the Bobcats were upset by Bowling Green. Undefeated on the season not long ago, the Bobcats are now the team getting points. Once again, I feel the underdog is the team providing us with the value.



While they've been rolling lately, a look at the stats shows that the Cardinals have played their opponents very equally on the season. They're only outscoring teams by a slight 33.7 to 32.7 margin and their 470.5 yards per game is nearly identical to the 471.3 allowed. With the exception of a blowout loss at Clemson early in the season, every one of their games has been decided by a dozen points or less, six of them by eight or fewer, three by four or less.



The Bobcats have only lost twice all season and one of those losses came by only three points. They've played numerous close games, including three which were decided by a field goal.



Speaking of 3-point games, last year's meeting had a final score of 23-20.



While it was a successful road trip, Ball State is just 5-10 ATS its last 15 home lined games. The Cardinals are also 5-7 ATS as favorites the past few seasons, including an 0-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range.



During that stretch, the Bobcats were 6-3 ATS as underdogs, including 5-1 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. Off their only previous loss this season, the Bobcats responded with a 45-14 blowout win.



I expect them to bounce back with their best effort once again and for that to lead to at least a cover. *10

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. Its always "scary" to go against a team like Oregon. The Ducks can and do score points quickly and they've been known to embarrass opposing teams, as well as the bettors that dare to play against them. You can't be a successful handicapper by being scared to play on or against any team though. In this case, I feel that the Ducks are simply laying too big a number.

The Ducks are off a hard-fought battle with USC last Saturday night. Having survived that test, they could easily experience a minor letdown. That's particularly true given that their next game is a big one vs. Stanford and that's followed by the Civil War vs. rival Oregon State.

On the other hand, the Bears are playing their home finale and don't have anything to "look ahead to" like their guests.

Some will mention that the Bears are without QB Maynard. Maynard was struggling though and I don't feel that his absence will be a negative.

Bridgford's stats weren't that good but I actually liked the way he threw the ball against Washington better than what Maynard was doing. Note that Bridgford also got the start against Nevada in the season opener, so he's got some snaps under his belt.

Bridgford had this to say: "It would be different if it were my first time playing a college football game but it's not. I've played a number of games. I've thrown a handful of passes. I'm not overly nervous. I'm just ready to have fun and waiting to have my shot."

Some may point to last year's 28-point victory by the Ducks. However, that game was at Oregon and the Bears actually led by a point at halftime.

The last game here at Berkeley, which was played in November of 2010 saw the Bears give the Ducks all they could handle. Oregon eked out a 15-13 win, aided by a punt return touchdown.

Oregon linebacker Michael Clay noted: "It was a dogfight. They missed a field goal, but it was a dogfight. It'll be another one down there."

The Bears are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as underdogs in the 21.5 to 31 range. I expect them to give the Ducks a scare, improving on those stats along the way. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on HAWAII. Knowing that they were upset in their last game, many will expect the Broncos to be angry and that they'll be looking to deliver a blowout. I'll agree as I'm sure that's exactly what the Broncos want to do. However, wanting to do something and actually doing it are entirely different matters.

While they have gone 2-0 SU, the Broncos are 0-2 ATS the past few years when coming off a conference loss. During that stretch, they're also a money-burning 3-5 ATS when listed as road favorites in the -21.5 to 31 range.

Note that with last week's loss, the Broncos are also only 3-6 ATS in November the past few seasons.

Already potentially distracted by last week's loss, now the Broncos have to make the long trip to Hawaii, where they could also be distracted by all the island of Oahu has to offer.

True, the Warriors have been pretty bad. In fairness, they've only played one home game since September. They had a new coach and were learning new schemes this season. They've had time to get it figured out now and should be thrilled to be back home, after playing four of their last five on the road.

The Warriors are 11-7 SU at home the past few years and only one of those seven losses (69-24 vs. Nevada earlier this year) came by greater than 27 points. I successfully played against the Warriors in that one but feel this one sets up much better for them.

Six of the Broncos' seven trips here, going back to 1996, have been decided by 15 or less, Hawaii winning three of those outright. Look for this one to also prove much closer than expected. *10 Mountain West GOY

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. I believe that the Bears are in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

The Sooners haven't forgotten that the Robert Griffin III led Bears beat them last year. Keep in mind that Griffin, who threw for nearly 500 yards in last year's game, isn't around anymore though and that the Sooners are a perfect 10-0 against the Bears here at Norman.

The Sooners allow the fewest points (and yards) in the Big 12. Baylor's coach Art Briles said this of the Oklahoma defense: "They are good. They didn't wake up and just get good today; they have been good for a long time. They are very physical, very talented, and they are schemed up very well."

While the Sooners did lose games vs. K-State and Notre Dame, they've been crushing everyone else. (They're 5-0 against unranked team, winning by an average of 30.8 points per game.) Last week, they went on the road and won by 15 at Iowa State, outgaining the Cyclones by more than 300 total yards. (The Cyclones beat Baylor by a nearly identical margin in their previous game.) Back at home, I expect an even wider margin of victory here.

In addition to being winless at Norman, the Bears are 0-26 all-time on the road vs. Top 25 teams in Big 12 play. They're also 2-6 ATS the last eight times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 70 or greater. Meanwhile, the Sooners are 2-0 SU/ATS at home with an O/U line of 70 or more. I expect a blowout. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. The Wildcats are the higher seed. However, I believe that the Wolverines are favored by this many for good reason.

I believe that the Wildcats offense will prove too one-dimensional to win this game. Northwestern has a poor pass attack (ranked 113th in the country) and it will be up against one of the best pass defenses in the nation. That should allow the Wolverines to really focus on stopping the run; I expect them to have some success doing so.

With an O/U line in the low 50s, note that Michigan is 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that it played a home game with an O/U line ranging from 49.5 to 56.

The Wolverines won by 18 at Northwestern last season. Playing at home, I expect another double-digit victory. *9

I'm playing on UCONN. Admittedly, the Panthers have been a far more profitable team that the Huskies. While the Huskies have cost their supporters, the Panthers have lined their backers' pockets with cash. I feel that will change tonight though.

While this is an important game for them, the Panthers are in a possible letdown spot. They're off a heart-breaking OT loss vs. Notre Dame, the kind of defeat that can really be difficult to bounce back from.

While the Huskies' record certainly isn't too impressive, it could easily be better. Five of their last seven games have been decided by a touchdown or less.

Speaking of close games, the Panthers were favored by six points the last time that they played here; the Huskies won by two points.

Counting last week's game as a push, the Huskies are 5-1-1 ATS in November the past few seasons.

This is a "must win" game for the Huskies, as they need to "win out" to become bowl eligible. With their season on the line, I expect them to rise to the occasion, earning at least the cover and improving to 21-8-1 ATS the last 30 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. *9

I'm playing on V-TECH. The Seminoles are a talented team and they've been playing well. However, I still don't feel that they should be laying two touchdowns for a Thursday night game at Blacksburg.

Sure, the Hokies have lost two in a row. However, those were both on the road. Their last home game resulted in a 21 point victory. In fact, they're 4-0 at home on the season, 15-2 here the past few years.

Also, note that the Hokies are typically at their most dangerous when off back-to-back losses. They're 15-5 ATS their last 20 in that situation, including 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons.

During that stretch, the Seminoles were only 7-9 ATS when off two or more consecutive victories. Note that Florida State is 0-4 ATS the last four times it was a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 range.

Note that the Hokies last loss was a little deceiving, as they had a statistical edge at Miami.

Some may argue that the Seminoles have the advantage of coming off a bye. However, it should be noted that they're 0-2 following byes under Fisher.

Sure, the Seminoles are looking to improve on their impressive record and are looking to play in the ACC Championship game. The Hokies arguably need this game more though. They're trying to extend their string of 19 consecutive seasons with a bowl berth and they need wins in two of their next three to be eligible. Note that the Hokies have won 21 of 29 Thursday games and that they'd been 7-0 in November the past two seasons.

I expect Beamer to have his team fully ready and I look for AT LEAST a cover. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on BOWLING GREEN. I won with the visitor in last night's MAC contest and I'm going back with the road team here.
Similar to last night, these teams are battling to get to or stay in second in their respective decision. Last night, Ball State did NIU (the team on top of the West division) a favor by knocking off Toledo. Tonight, Bowling Green and Ohio try and avoid falling further behind East leading Kent State.
The Bobcats come in with the better overall record. They're 8-1 as opposed to Bowling Green's 6-3. However, both teams are 4-1 in conference play and its the Falcons who have the better record at the betting window. They're 6-3 ATS on the season as compared to Ohio's 4-5 ATS mark.
Records notwithstanding, I believe the Falcons are currently the better team. Admittedly, I'm someone that's a little biased towards a dominating defense. Still, check out these numbers.
Over the last five games, the Falcons have allowed a total of just 23 points, an average of less than five per game. They won 48-8, 24-10, 37-12, 24-0 and 24-3.
By comparison, the Bobcats have allowed 138 points over their last five games, an average of nearly 28.
Not surprisingly, Ohio has gone only 1-4 ATS its last five. Bowling Green, by comparison has gone 5-0 ATS. True, those results have kept the line down a bit. I still feel we're getting very fair value though.
Both teams beat up on lowly Eastern Michigan last time out. However, Ohio did so on 11/1 while Bowling Green did so on 10/27. (On 10/27, Ohio was busy losing outright at Miami Oh.) I believe that the extra preparation (and healing) time will serve the Falcons well here
Last year's game was decided by a single point, a 29-28 road win for Ohio. Don't be surprised when Bowling Green returns the favor. *10

I'm playing on BALL STATE. I successfully played against Toledo in its last game. The Rockets were playing Buffalo and I suggested that they would get a tough test. That proved to be the case, as they won by only five. While the Rockets are now back home, they're also facing a team which is better than Buffalo. Once again, I expect them to have their hands full.
Yes, the Rockets are in the Top 25. However, they just got in there and its the first time in more than 10 years. I expect that to serve as some added motivation for a strong Ball State squad, which now knows it has the opportunity to defeat a "ranked" program.
Ball State coach Pete Lembo noted: ''I did share with our team yesterday after practice about Toledo moving into the Top 25. That's a great thing for the MAC. We've got some terrific teams in the league this year. We're just excited to be in a position where this game has a lot of meaning to it at this point.''

While Toledo scores 36 (410.5 yards) points per game at home, the Cardinals average 36.4 (450.8 yards) ppg on the road. They should be able to trade punches with their hosts the entire way.

The Cardinals have won three straight games and are 5-2 their last seven. All seven of those games were decided by a dozen points or less and the lone road loss came by just two. The Rockets are off three straight victories of six or fewer points. I'm expecting another one with the Cardinals earning AT LEAST a cover and improving to 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range and 6-0 ATS the last six times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 63.5 to 70 range. *9

I'm playing on LSU. I had Alabama in last year's championship game and I certainly still respect the Crimson Tide. That doesn't mean that I won't go against them when I feel that the value lies the other way though. I feel that's the case on Saturday.



Alabama did win 21-0 last January. However, lets not forget that the Tide were only very modest favorites in that game OR that the previous two games, each of which were played in the first week of November, were both decided by a field goal. LSU won 9-6 at Alabama on 11/5/2011. The previous year, the Tigers won 24-21, here in Baton Rouge.



True, Alabama has been blowing every opponent out while LSU has had some close wins. However, I would argue that the Tigers have played a tougher schedule AND that their "close game experience" could serve them well here. Keep in mind that LSU's last three games have come at Texas A@M, vs. South Carolina and at Florida. Alabama, on the other hand, has faced Miss. State, Tennessee and Missouri.



It should be mentioned that Alabama played last week while LSU is coming off a bye. Note that the Tigers are 3-1 SU/ATS off a bye the past few seasons.



During that time, the Tigers were also 4-2 ATS when listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. Over that time, Alabama was only 3-5 ATS as a favorite in the 3.5 to 10 range.



The Tigers enter Saturday's game with the nation's longest win streak at home; they've won a school-record 22 straight games here.

Coach Miles said this of his team's homefield advantage: "I can tell you that our team will look forward to playing in this stadium.There's no place like it. The environment that can be created in Tiger Stadium certainly will help the home team. Our guys play best in that stadium and in that environment. I think they'll look forward to playing in it. I imagine it will be pretty special."

The Tigers are allowing only 14.6 points per game. That makes beating them by a significant margin difficult. (Their lone loss came by 8 points.) I'm expecting a close one and am grabbing all the points that I can get. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on USC. Many bettors don't like going against Oregon. The Ducks are talented, aggressive and they tend to try and embarrass their opponents. While I certainly respect Oregon, I believe that the betting public's "fear" of the Ducks is leading to some excellent value with the talented home underdog here.



While the Trojans may not have an undefeated record, they are still extremely strong on both sides of the ball. This is a team that is loaded with talent and which entered the season with dreams of winning the National Title. QB Matt Barkley, one of 16 returning starters, turned down the NFL to play here this season.



A closer look at the Trojans' schedule shows that both of their losses came by seven points or less. They also both came on the road. The Trojans won their last two home games by a combined score of 77-16. Undefeated on the season here, they're outscoring teams by a 42 to 8.3 margin at home, outgaining them by a 473.7 to 288.3 margin here.



Those are actually better the Ducks' road numbers. Oregon is outscoring teams by a 47 to 23.5 margin on the road but only outgaining them by a 461.5 to 405 count.



While last week's loss was certainly disappointing and costly, the Trojans still have much to play for. QB Barkley had this to say:



"From here, we've just got to stick together. That's the beauty of football; you experience some of the most spurring moments of your life and you learn to cope with the moments like these."



The Trojans haven't been listed as underdogs since winning outright at Oregon last season. Including that cover, they're 13-6 ATS the last 19 times that they were getting points. I expect them to improve on those numbers with AT LEAST another cover on Saturday night. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on WYOMING. In the final weeks of the season, I often like to try and identify teams which are having a disappointing season but who I feel are in a good spot to get their home fans one last victory.



Last week, I played on Central Michigan in such a spot. The Chippewas had struggled but I felt that a game against a weak Akron team was the perfect recipe for them to provide the home faithful with a win.



Wyoming fits the bill on Saturday afternoon.



While they never expecting to be playing on New Year's Day or anything, the Cowboys have certainly not had the type of season that they were hoping for. Indeed, they're just 1-7 and 0-4 in conference play. Their lone win came on the road, at Idaho.



Remember, this was a team that went to a bowl game last year (and in 2009) and which had hopes to do so again.



A closer look shows that the Cowboys could easily have a much better record. Three of their seven losses came by a field goal or less, a total of six points. They also lost by only seven at Nevada (as 20 point underdogs) and by 20 at Texas in Week 1 (as 31 point underdogs). Their last two games have come vs. Boise State, at Fresno State vs. Air Force and at Nevada, four of the top five teams in the Mountain West.



A look ahead at their remaining schedule reveals that the Cowboys' next two games both come on the road and that their final game comes against San Diego State, a bowl team from last year, and another of the top five in the MWC.



In other words, a game against Colorado State definitely provides the best (and perhaps final) chance at earning a win for the home fans. The Cowboys know as much and I expect them to be fully focused on going all out and getting that elusive home win. In fact, not only do I expect them to win, I expect them to take out their frustrations and deliver a blowout.



True, the Rams won last week, their first victory in conference play. However, that was at home and it was against Hawaii, another team which is winless in MWC play.



While the score (42-27) says otherwise, that was actually a very fortunate win for the Rams. Indeed, they were outgained by a 393 to 291 margin. The Warriors had 25 first downs to the Rams 16. (Two fourth quarter interceptions thrown by Hawaii were returned for touchdowns.)



I don't expect the Rams to experience nearly that type of "good fortune" on the road. Every time that they've ventured outside of their state this season, they've lost by at least 20 points. They're 4-10 ATS (2-12 SU) their last 14 road line games. They last played here in 2010 and lost 44-0.



The Cowboys are 2-0 ATS against losing teams this year and 1-0 ATS the last few seasons as home favorites in the 7.5 to 10 range. I expect them to treat this like their bowl game and expect that to result in a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ARMY. I like how this one sets up for the home underdog. The Falcons are off an upset win over Nevada. Many bettors backed the Wolfpack there. So, they're wary of going against Air Force now. Meanwhile, the Knights are 0-3 SU/ATS their last three. That has bettors wary to play on them. I feel that sentiment is providing us with excellent value.

The Knights obviously aren't one of the best teams in the country. However, they play hard and this game surely means a lot to them. Indeed, the Knights have lost six straight against Air Force. While they won't be going to a bowl, a win here would significantly raise the stakes for the annual showdown vs. Navy. I believe that the talent level between these two programs is closer than it has been in the recent past.

Note that Army covered the spread in last year's meeting and that the Knights actually had an edge in both first downs and total yards in that game.

The Falcons were indeed rather impressive against Nevada. However, lets not forget that they were 0-3 ATS in their previous three games, all three of them decided by seven or fewer points.

The Falcons are great in the underdog role but that's rarely the case when they're favored. In fact, they're an awful 7-16 ATS the past few seasons when laying points. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way on Saturday. *10

I'm playing on KENTUCKY. I've been involved with two Kentucky games this season, winning both. I successfully played against the Wildcats in their first game. They got killed by Louisville in that one. At the time, I mentioned that I expected to them to have a "long year."
Here's an excerpt from that first writeup: "... While its true that these type of "rivalry" games aren't always won by the team which is stronger on paper, in this case, I feel that the large line is justified. The Wildcats finished below .500 last season. A punchless offense was a big part of the problem. At less than 260 yards per game, they were 118th in total offense. While the Cats do return many of their skill players, scoring again figures to be an issue this season ... "
I went on to mention several other points, including how the Wildcats had recently been poor as road underdogs in the range that they were in.
Fast-forwarding six weeks, it wasn't until the Wildcats had begun the season by going 1-6 ATS that I finally found some value in playing on them. They were very large underdogs for their most recent home game (vs Georgia) and I felt that the line was generously high.
Here's what I suggested: "True, the Wildcats have been brutal. True, they're up against a powerful team. I feel that this will be a good spot for them though and they're offering us plenty of line value .... The Bulldogs followed up their loss at South Carolina by having a bye last week. The popular consensus will be that they'll be angry and that they'll look to dominate their over-matched guests. I'll agree that Georgia wants to do that. However, thats easier said than done. Off the first loss and a bye AND with a huge showdown against Florida on deck, I feel that it will be hard to focus on "lowly" Kentucky. Note that Georgia is 1-3 ATS the last four times it played with two week's rest and just 2-5 ATS the last seven times it was off a conference loss. This lowly Kentucky team lost by only nine points (as a 30.5 point underdog!) last season though. In fact, five straight series meetings have been decided by 13 or fewer points, Kentucky covering three of the last four. I look for this one to also prove closer than expected, the Cats improving to 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the 21.5 to 31 range .. "
Sure enough, the Cats played Georgia tough, EASILY covering the large spread. I didn't play on Kentucky last time out; the Cats resorted to their losing ways on the road, losing at Missouri. They've back home now though and playing a game which they feel they can actually win. Knowing that this is their final shot at a conference victory for the home fans (their only other home game remaining comes vs. Samford) I expect an extremely motivated effort from the Wildcats this Saturday afternoon.
Just as I felt the Bulldogs were in a tough spot when they faced the Wildcats, off a rare blowout win, I feel that the Commodores may also be in letdown mode. Of course, it doesn't much matter what their mindset, road wins are few and far between for the Commodores. They're only 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS in road lined games the past few seasons, going a dismal 25-78 SU since the early 90s. While Vanderbilt did manage an upset road win at Missouri, note that it came by just four points. It should also be noted that the Commodores are only 7-14 the last 21 times that they were off back to back SU victories.
Kentucky crushed Vanderbilt by a score of 38-20 when these teams met here two seasons ago. While much has changed, I won't be surprised at all if the 'Cats come out on top again. *9

I'm playing on MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. I feel this teams are closer in talent than is being indicated by the pointspread and I'm expecting a close game.

Last year's meeting went to double-OT. The +10.5 point underdog Hilltoppers prevailed 36-33. The Blue Raiders had won the previous year's game, which was the most recent here at Western Kentucky, by a single point.

That 27-26 victory marked Middle Tennessee State's third straight win in the series. Prior to last year's thriller, the Hilltoppers had last beaten Middle Tennessee State way back in 2007. Just like last year, the Hilltoppers won that game by only a field goal.

The Blue Raiders come in off a momentum-builidng 38-21 victory over North Texas. That was a nice way to bounce back after getting blown out by an SEC team the previous game.

Prior to the loss at Mississippi State, the Blue Raiders' previous game had been at FIU. The Blue Raiders won that one by a score of 34-30.

Speaking of FIU, the Hilltoppers also just faced the Golden Panthers. While Western Kentucky did manage to "eke out" an 8-point win, a look at the stats shows that it wasn't easy.

The Panthers had an edge in first downs, (19-16) and an edge in total yards (342-289). The Hilltoppers scored a late TD (2:24 left) and then hung on for dear life as the Panthers got to their 33 and were thinking end zone.

Prior to that, the Hilltoppers had won their previous two games by just six combined points. So, that's three straight decided by eight or less.

While the Hilltoppers have indeed been an outstanding pointspread team in recent seasons, that's mostly been as underdogs. They've NEVER been listed as home favorites in the 7.5 to 10 range in recent years.

The Blue Raiders, on the other hand, are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 7.5 to 10 range. This is a team that went into Georgia Tech and won 49-28, as 24 point underdogs. I expect AT LEAST another cover on Thursday night. *10 Sun Belt GOY

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Beavers check in with a Top 10 ranking an an undefeated record. I expect their undefeated streak to come to an end Saturday night though.

The Huskies may have four losses. However, only one of those losses came in their home state and that resulted in a cover vs. USC. Keep in mind that in addition to game against the Trojans, the Huskies have already played road games at LSU and at Oregon. Practically no team in the country is going to win those games, so an 0-2 record there doesn't mean much of anything. Also, keep in mind that the Huskies beat Stanford. That's arguably as impressive as any victory that Oregon State has had all year.

Oregon State is expected to get its starting QB back. However, with the backup having guided them to back to back victories, that isn't necessarily an upgrade. Mannion may have some rust. Keep in mind that he had surgery to repair the meniscus in his left knee less than three weeks ago.

Coach Riley acknowledged it wasn't an easy decision about which QB to go with: "It was difficult. Cody has played well and Sean has played well. I just kind of took it back a little bit further to the initial competition. Sean had played four games and played well so we decided to go with him. But it was not easy."

I believe that this will prove to be a difficult scheduling spot for the Beavers. They're off a hard-fought win over Utah, one which made them become bowl eligible. The Beavers may have won that game but they were actually outgained by a fairly wide margin, only gaining 226 total yards of offense. While this team now has bigger goals, a small letdown, after having become bowl eligible would be natural. Remember, this team was 3-9 last season and was expected to struggle again this year.

Riley knows the Huskies are going to be hard to beat and acknowledges that they've played a far more difficult schedule than his Beavers. He said this of the Huskies: "We know they're very talented and very, very capable. They beat a real good Stanford team and they've kind of played murderer's row here, they've played LSU and USC and Oregon (and) Stanford so we're expecting another tough Pac-12 game."

The Huskies, 3-2 ATS the past few seasons, when off back-to-back losses, are in one of their better roles here. They're 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they were home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range.. During the same stretch, the Beavers were only 2-5-1 ATS as road favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range.

With the last meeting here being decided by a single point (35-34 Washington) I'll gladly grab the points. However, as I noted at the beginning, I see the Beavers suffering their first loss here. *10 Pac 12 GOY

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO STATE. Laying this many points on the road, obviously the Bulldogs are the "better" team. Indeed, they're an impressive 6-1 while the Aggies are a dismal 1-6. That said, I feel this number will prove to be too high.

While the LA Tech offense is certainly impressive, note that the defense is giving up 38 points per game and 519.6 yards per game. On the road, those numbers climb all the way to 42.5 and 580. The Bulldogs have given up AT LEAST 24 points in every single game this season.

As for the Aggies, they're only getting outscored by a 27 to 25.7 margin at home. While they won't be able to stop them, the Aggies do have some weapons on offense and should be able to score points against the weak LA Tech defense.

The Bulldogs did win by 42 (70-28) last week. However, that was at home and it was the first time all season that they won by more than 28 points.

The Aggies did lost by 34 last week. However, that was on the road against a tough Utah State team and it was the first time all season that they lost by more than 27 points. They're 1-2 at home and neither loss came by more than 21.

LA Tech Coach Sonny Dykes said this of the Aggies: "They have lost a couple of tough games this year. Their record is probably not where they think it could be or where it definitely could be based on them losing a couple of tough ones. Anyway, they are a good football team and I know it is their homecoming and they will be excited to play against us."

I'm plugging my nose and grabbing all the points I can get. *9

I'm playing on HAWAII. Neither of these teams have fared too well on the season. In fact, each has just one victory. The Warriors pounded Lamar in Week 2 while the Rams beat instate rival Colorado (by five) to begin the season.

While beating Colorado may be more impressive than beating Lamar (although that's even debatable given that Hawaii won 54-2, while CSU won 22-17) a look at the rest of the schedule shows that the Warriors have had to contend with the likes of USC, Nevada, San Diego State and BYU. They did get to face New Mexico, a game they lost, but that was their only legit chance at a win. The Rams also faced San Diego State (like Hawaii, they got blown out) but their other opponents have arguably been a little easier. They hosted North Dakota State and lost that one by 15 points.

The Rams can't run the ball and they're banged-up at QB. Averaging 11 points (and 274.3 yards) on this field, makes winning difficult, let alone covering a large number.

I don't feel home field offers much of an advantage; the Rams haven't won here yet this season. The travel from Hawaii isn't a factor either, as both teams had last week off. Bottom line is I don't feel the Rams currently deserve to be laying this many points against any 1-A opponent. *9

I'm playing on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. I feel this one sets up nicely for the home underdog. These teams have much different records but I don't feel the talent gap between them is that wide.

True, Florida International enters on a losing streak and has had a disappointing season. However, the Panthers are better than their record shows and they haven't quit fighting. Their last two losses have come by a combined five points.

For the season, the Panthers are averaging a respectable 28 points per game at home, on a healthy 407.5 yards. Those are much better numbers than Western Kentucky (22 ppg & 319.7 ypg) can boast of on the road, although in fairness a shutout loss at Alabama had a big effect on those numbers.

FIU QB Jake Metlock missed two games with an injury. He's healthy now though and is arguably as good as any QB in the conference. Indeed, Metlock has thrown for more than 253 ypg game with nine touchdown passes and only one interception. Last week, he lit up Troy with three touchdown passes a week ago, throwing for 300-plus yards for the third time this season.


Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers are off a 1-point loss of their own, their second straight game decided by five or fewer points.

While the Panthers have gotten used to losing, last week's loss is likely going to be a difficult one for the Hilltoppers to put out of their minds. They blew a fourth quarter lead and lost in OT. That snapped a 9-game conference winning streak. I feel it may well be tough to re-focus on lowly FIU.

Speaking of close games, last year's game, which was played at Western Kentucky, saw the Hilltoppers win by a score of 10-9. The previous year's game, played here, saw the Panthers win by 28-21. Don't be surprised to see an upset here. *9

I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. Some of you may recall that I successfully played against the Chippewas a couple of weeks ago. They were hosting Navy and I suggested that they would be vulnerable against Navy's running attack. That proved to be the case as the Chippewas lost 31-13 and gave up 238 yards on the ground. They followed that up with a double-digit loss against Ball State, another team which gashed them for more than 230 yards on the ground. This week's opponent, however, doesn't have nearly as potent a ground game. Akron averages almost exactly half the rushing yards that Navy does, 117.6 as opposed to 235.3. Last game, the Zips rushed for a mere 42 yards on 37 carries.

While the Midshipmen were coming in off a momentum-building win when I played on them, the Zips are off a demoralizing 37-7 loss, their fifth straight. Note that all five losses during their current skid have come by a minimum of six points.

Also, keep in mind that the Zips' only win all season came at home against 1AA Morgan State. Akron had a 753-200 edge in total yards in that game. Take out that game from their stats and the Zips stats are terrible.

Granted, Central Michigan hasn't been too good either. A win at Iowa is far more legit than anything that the Zips have accomplished though.

The Zips were expected to be bad. They were the worst team in the MAC last year, had a new coaching staff this year and very few returning starters.

On the other hand, the Chippewas were counting on being improved this season, as they returned 16 starters and lost the fewest amount of lettermen from last season in the MAC.

While Central Michigan won by only one point (CMU was up 20-0 at one point) at Akron last season, take note that the Chippewas were laying seven points on the road in that one. Now, we get a more experienced Central Michigan team, playing a less experienced Akron team AND the Chippewas are at home, yet we're laying less than a touchdown.

While a win for the Zips would be "nice," I would argue that the Chippewas need this one far more. A loss in this game and the program will be in need of wholesale changes.

Obviously, the Chippewas aren't what they were a few years ago but I still feel they'll have enough to take care of this weak Akron team. I expect a convincing win for the more talented and hungrier home team. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on BUFFALO. Off an upset of their highly ranked instate "rival" (Cincinnati) I feel that this will prove to be a tough spot for Toledo.

While the Rockets may be patting themselves on the back and potentially looking ahead to Ball State, the Bulls should be very hungry. They were fairly competitive against a Big East team themselves last time out, limiting Pittsburgh to 20 points. Prior to that, the Bulls had played three straight tough road games. Remember, this team opened with a road game at Georgia, too, playing the Bulldogs tough much of the way. So, the schedule has been no walk in the park.

Note that two of Buffalo's losses came by seven or fewer points, both games in which the Bulls covered.

Meanwhile, the Rockets check in at 0-2 ATS the last two times that they were listed as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range.

Note that each of Toledo's last two games have been decided by six points or less. For the season, the Rockets have seen four of their games finish with a margin of seven or fewer points.

While it was a few years back now, the Bulls beat Toledo the last time the teams met here. I have a feeling they do it again Saturday afternoon. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on Iowa. Both teams lost last week. It may sound funny to some but I feel that the Hawkeyes' "blowout loss" (38-14) will be easier to bounce back from than the Wildcats' heartbreaking 29-28 setback vs. Nebraska, a game the Wildcats led by double-digits in the fourth quarter.
Off a blowout loss, a well-coached team like Iowa usually has the full attention of its players. "Devastating" losses like Northwestern's can be harder to forget though.
Its also worth noting that Northwestern is only 4-7 SU/ATS the past few seasons off a conference loss. During that time, Iowa is 5-2 ATS and 5-3 SU off a conference loss.
Even off last week's loss, Iowa is still only allowing 20.1 points per game. On the road, the Hawkeyes are permitting a mere 16.5 ppg, giving up a paltry 264.5 yards. Beating a team by a wide margin that has that type of stout defense is a difficult task.
While the Hawkeyes won by 10 at Iowa last year, the most recent game here at Northwestern was decided by only four points, a 21-17 final. I won't be surprised to see a similar type of score here, one which could easily go Iowa's way, and am grabbing the points. *9