Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Panthers/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day *FEAST* on Dallas +1.5

The Key: The Cowboys are showing solid value here as home underdogs to the Carolina Panthers.  Jason Garrett is 23-13 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Cowboys.  Dallas is so much better with Tony Romo it's not even funny.  The Cowboys are 3-0 with him and 0-7 without him this season.  They won 24-14 over the Dolphins last week in a dominant effort, outgaining them 386-210 for the game.  The Cowboys now have an elite offense again to go with one of the NFL's best defenses, giving up just 335.5 yards per game.  The Panthers have had a very easy road schedule.  They are 4-0 on the road this year, but three of those wins came against the Jags, Bucs & Titans.  Dallas has won each of its last five meetings with Carolina and will make it six in a row here.  Take Dallas.

7* Bowling Green/Ball State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +23.5

The Key: I really question the motivation of the Bowling Green Falcons right now.  They already locked up their spot in the MAC Championship Game two weeks ago with a win over Western Michigan.  They promptly fell flat on their faces last week in a 28-44 home loss to Toledo despite being 7-point favorites.  They are in the exact same situation as last year where they clinched with two games left and lost their final two games before getting rolled by Northern Illinois in the Championship Game as well.  In their season finale last year, the Falcons lost 24-41 as 10-point home favorites over Ball State.  The Cardinals would like to end their season on a positive note with a win here, and it's also Senior Night, so they will be motivated.  I have little doubt they'll stay within three touchdowns of Bowling Green in this one.  They haven't lost by more than 14 points at home this year.  They are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following two straight games where they gave up 37 or more points.  Take Ball State.

7* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Redskins +7.5

The Key: The Panthers are 9-0 straight up and 7-2 ATS this season.  They have made backers a lot of money, and as a result, they are clearly overvalued right now.  They have a two-game lead for home-field advantage in the NFC, so they can afford to take their foot off the gas this week.  The Washington Redskins have no such luxury.  They are 4-5 on the season and can pull even with the New York Giants for the NFC East lead with a win this week.  The Redskins are loaded with confidence right now after their 47-14 dismantling of the Saints last week.  They racked up 526 total yards in the win, while holding the high-powered Saints to just 350 yards, outgaining them by 176.  Washington is 39-23 ATS in its last 62 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Washington.

7* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -2

The Key: The Pittsburgh Panthers are 7-3 this season and having a great year.  Their three losses were to Notre Dame, Iowa and Pittsburgh, who have a combined two losses on the season.  Both Notre Dame and Iowa are playoff contenders.  The Panthers weren't overmatched against any of those three teams, losing by 12 points or less in all three games with a 3-point loss at Iowa, a 7-point loss to UNC, and a 12-point loss to Notre Dame.  Now it will be up against a mediocre 6-4 Louisville team that has narrow wins over Boston College (17-14), Wake Forest (20-19) and Virginia (38-31) in three of its last four games.  I look for the Panthers to take care of business at home.  They are coming off a 31-13 road win at Duke in what was one of their most complete performances of the season.  That's key because the Panthers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  Pitt is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Louisville, winning four of the last five outright.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Cincinnati/USF NCAAF Friday Night Lights on South Florida +2

The Key: The South Florida Bulls have a realistic shot of winning the AAC East division.  They are one game back of Temple, which plays Memphis on Saturday.  The Bulls beat the Owls 44-23 at home last week in a dominant effort, outgaining them by 176 yards behind 230 rushing yards from Marlon Mack.  That followed up a 22-17 road win at East Carolina in which they outgained the Pirates by 222 yards.  South Florida has been tough to beat at home, going 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS this season, winning by an average of 21.4 PPG.  The Bulls are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming by 4 points over Miami Ohio as 21-point favorites.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this year.  Take South Florida.

7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville -3

The Key: Jacksonville is 3-6 this season, but only one game back of first place in the AFC South.  The Jaguars have managed three wins despite playing just three home games this season compared to six on the road.  They are playing well right now, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  Their only loss was a 5-point road loss to the Jets in which they outgained them by 146 yards.  Four turnovers are the only thing that prevented the Jags from winning that game.  The Titans have lost five of their last six games and sit at just 2-7 on the season.  Marcus Mariota is going to be without his top two receivers tonight in Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright.  The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this rivalry.  Tennessee is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 vs. division opponents and 0-7 ATS in its last 7 vs. teams who are outscored by 6 or more points per game on the season.  Take Jacksonville.

7* Toledo/Bowling Green MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Toledo +8

The Key: Bowling Green already clinched the MAC East title for the second consecutive season.  It is now already penciled into the MAC Championship Game.  Toledo is tied with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan atop the MAC West with 5-1 records each.  The Rockets still have some work to do, and motivation will clearly be on their side in this one, while we don't know what we'll get from Bowling Green.  The Falcons were in the same situation last year having clinched the MAC East early, and they proceeded to lose each of their final three games of the season, including a 17-point loss to Ball State at home as 10-point favorites.  Toledo has won five straight meetings with Bowling Green.  The Rockets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.  Take Toledo.

7* Texans/Bengals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +11

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals could not possible be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS this season, the NFL's only team without an ATS loss.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them this week.  They are now a double-digit favorite for the second consecutive week, and you're not going to lose a lot of money betting double-digit NFL favorites over the long run.  We'll go the other way and side with the Texans, who are just 3-5 on the season, but they're a better team than that record.  The Texans are only a half-game back in the AFC South and can pull into a tie for first place with a win this week.  The Texans are outgaining teams by 18.5 yards per game this season behind the 9th-ranked offense and 14th-ranked defense.  Houston has won five of its last six meetings with Cincinnati.  Betting against favorites of 10.5 or more points, in the second half of the season, who beat the spread by 35 or more combined points over their past five games are 27-8 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Houston.

7* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in.  Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game.  Baltimore is just 2-6 with season-ending injuries to Steve Smith Sr. Terrell Suggs and Matt Elam.  The Jaguars outgained the Jets by 146 yards on the road last week after beating the Bills in London.  The Ravens haven't beaten anyone by more than 3 points this year, and six of their eight games were decided by 5 points or less.  Take Jacksonville.

7* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on South Florida +3

The Key: South Florida is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss to Memphis coming by a final of 24-17.  USF has won its other three games at Raymond James Stadium by a combined 134-41 score.  "I know one thing about Ray Jay, when it's rocking it's hard for any opponent to come in here and play," coach Willie Taggart told the Bulls' official website. "I've been on the other side of that coming in here and playing when that place is rocking. That's how we need it Saturday night."  A win would have the Bulls becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2010, so expect a great crowd Saturday night.  Temple is very beatable and is overvalued as the favorite here due to going 5-1 ATS in its last six games.  It needed some late-game magic to beat both East Carolina and SMU on the road recently, which are two teams that aren't as good as this South Florida outfit.  USF also beat ECU on the road and SMU by 24 at home.  The Bulls have won four of their last five with their only loss coming at Navy 17-29 in a game that was very close until the 4th quarter.  USF is 6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  Take South Florida.

7* Bills/Jets NFL Thursday *HEAVY HITTER* on New York -1.5

The Key: This line is indicating that the Bills are actually the better team.  Once again, the Jets aren't getting enough credit for how good they really are as only 1.5-point favorites here.  They rank 4th in the NFL in total defense and 11th in total offense, outgaining teams by 42.6 yards per game.  The Bills are getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game this year.  This line is an overreaction from Buffalo's blowout win over Miami last week in which the Bills were in a good spot because they returned from their bye.  It's also an overreaction from losses in two of the last three games from the Jets, but two of those games on the road to the Pats and Raiders, and they rebounded with a home win over the Jaguars last week.  New York is now 3-1 at home this year and should be 4-0 because it outgained Philadelphia by nearly 100 yards but committed 4 turnovers in a 17-24 loss.  Buffalo is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 games following a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take New York.

7* Toledo/CMU NCAAF Tuesday *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +4.5

The Key: The Central Michigan Chippewas are a sensational 8-1 against the spread in 2015.  The oddsmakers continue to undervalue this team, and that's the case here as 4.5-point home underdogs.  They have lost four games this year, but they covered the spread in all four and arguably should have won three of them.  They outgained Michigan State, Western Michigan and Syracuse.  Oklahoma State, which is 9-0, only outgained them by 77 yards in an 11-point road win.  Central Michigan is rested having last played on October 31.  Toledo is in a tough spot here after playing on November 3 last Tuesday in a 32-27 home loss to Northern Illinois.  That loss is likely going to keep the Rockets out of the MAC Championship Game again, and these players know it.  It's going to be hard to bounce back from that loss as a result.  Central Michigan has won its last three home games all by 10 points or more, including a 29-19 victory over that same Northern Illinois team.  The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take Central Michigan.

7* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -2.5

The Key: Aaron Rodgers hasn't lost consecutive games as a starter since 2010.  That just shows the kind of resiliency he and the Packers have had ever since he's been at the helm.  After a blowout loss to the Broncos last week, the Packers will be playing with extra motivation this week.  They also want to earn the tiebreaker over the Panthers if it comes down to home-field advantage in the playoffs.  The Panthers are 7-0, but they haven't beaten a team with a winning record, and this will be the best team that they've played this year.  The Packers are 9-0 ATS after playing a road game over the past two seasons.  Take Green Bay.

7* LSU/Alabama NCAAF Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -7

The Key: LSU has breezed to 7-0 thanks to a soft schedule that has featured five home games.  But the two road games the Tigers have played in, they didn't play nearly as well.  They only won 21-19 at Mississippi State as 3-point favorites and 34-24 at Syracuse as 23.5-point favorites.  Alabama is built to stop the run and dominates all teams that think they can just run the football on them.  LSU is a one-dimensional offense that only averages 11 pass completions per game.  Alabama will be highly motivated to stop Leonard Fournette, who has benefited from playing such a soft schedule to this point.  Alabama only gives up 78 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.  Two other one-dimensional running teams didn't have any success against the Crimson Tide this year.  They beat Wisconsin 35-17 and Georgia 38-10, both on the road.  Alabama can both pass (233 yards/game) and run (188 yards/game), and its balance offensively will be huge in this game.  LSU has allowed at least 19 points in all seven of its games this season, so it is no juggernaut defensively.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games following a win.  Take Alabama.

7* BYU/San Jose State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +13

The Key: San Jose State is a better team than it gets credit for.  It is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall while outgaining four of its last five opponents.  The Spartans outgained Fresno State by 296 yards, Auburn by 64 on the road, UNLV by 41 on the road, and New Mexico by 163 at home while winning three of those four contests.  BYU is a team that relies heavily on the pass to move the football, averaging 294 yards per game through the air.  That makes this an excellent matchup for the Spartans, who lead the country in giving up just 122 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt.  BYU is without three starting offensive linemen in Ryker Matthews, Ului Lapuaho and Kyle Johnson, so it is short-handed up front, too.  The Spartans are actually outgaining opponents by 63.6 yards per game this season.  The home team is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series, including a 20-14 win by the Spartans in their only home meeting with the Cougars.  Even in their two road losses they only lost by 13 as 14.5-point dogs and by 3 as 18-point dogs.  This one will go right down to the wire as well.  BYU is 0-6 ATS off a bye week over the last three seasons, losing by 5.8 points per game.  Take San Jose State.

7* Browns/Bengals TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +11.5

The Key: Johnny Manziel will get the start for the Browns and has grown a lot since last year as a player.  He has thrown three touchdown passes against one interception with a very solid 93.2 QB rating this year.  He led the Browns to a 28-14 win over the Titans earlier this season and has handled himself well when forced into action.  While the Bengals are the better team on paper, I don't believe they are 11.5 points better than the Browns in this one.  The Bengals are in a prime letdown spot off their big win over the Steelers on Sunday and likely won't bring the focus it takes to put away the Browns by double-digits.  Plus, this rivalry game has been very whacky with the road team winning both meetings last year, including a 24-3 win by the Browns.  The underdog is 13-2-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings as well, so rarely do these games go as expected.  Plus, I like the fact that Cleveland is 8-1 ATS off one or more straight ATS losses over the last two seasons.  The Browns are actually outscoring their opponents by 4.7 points per game in this spot.  Take Cleveland.

7* Ohio/BG MAC Game of the Week on Ohio +20

The Key: The betting public loves backing high-scoring teams like the Bowling Green Falcons.  They have been rewarded this year as the Falcons have gone 6-2 straight up and 6-2 against the spread up to this point.  But now the oddsmakers have over-adjusted here in listing the Falcons as 20-point favorites over rival Ohio.  Adding to this adjustment is that Ohio has been blown out in its past two games against Western Michigan and Buffalo.  But the loss to Buffalo was far from the 17-41 final score as the Bobcats actually outgained the Bulls by 49 yards in the game, but shot themselves in the foot with four turnovers.  Ohio has played some good football on the road this year, winning 14-12 at Akron and only losing 24-27 at Minnesota.  The Bobcats still believe they can win the MAC, but it starts with an upset here of the Falcons.  Look for them to put their best foot forward in this rivalry game.  The Bobcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Bobcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.  Take Ohio.

7* Northern Illinois/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois +7.5

The Key: Northern Illinois is the king of the MAC and isn't ready to let Toledo take its throne this year.  I like the 7.5 points we're getting here with how dominant the Huskies have been in this series.  They have gone 5-0 in their last five meetings with the Rockets.  They are 6-1 in the last seven meetings as well with their only loss coming by a single point.  Northern Illinois has three losses this year, but all three came by 10 points or less and all three on the road.  That includes a 13-20 loss at Ohio State in which they held the Buckeyes to less than 300 yards.  They have the better defense in this one.  Toledo is 7-0 but should have lost to both Arkansas and Iowa State.  It was outgianed by 197 yards by Arkansas and by 172 yards by Iowa State.  The Rockets also trailed 10-28 at UMass in their last game before coming back to win.   The Huskies are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games & 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win by 21 points or more.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Northern Illinois.

7* Colts/Panthers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis Colts +7

The Key: The Indianapolis Colts really need a victory as they are sitting at 3-4 and off two consecutive losses to the Saints and Patriots.  I expect them to put their best foot forward here against a Carolina team that is one of the most overvalued in the league.  Despite being 6-0, I believe the Panthers are just a middle-of-the-pack team, and I actually have the Colts rated higher than them.  So getting seven points here is a gift.  The Panthers have faced the league's easiest schedule to this point as they haven't beaten a team with a winning record.  They are only outgaining teams by 4.4 yards per game despite this easy schedule.  The only other time this season the Panthers were favored by more than a field goal, they failed to cover the spread in a 27-22 home win over the Saints as 10-point favorites.  Keep in mind that Drew Brees didn't play in that contest.  Ron Rivera is 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games as the coach of Carolina.  Take Indianapolis.

7* NFL *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Key: This play falls into a system that is 101-67 (60.1%) ATS since the start of the 2003 season.  It is a contrarian system that tells us to bet on teams who have performed poorly against the spread.  It tells us to bet on teams with a 7-game ATS winning percentage of less than 15%.  The betting public tends to overreact to these teams and not want to bet them because they haven't won them many bets at all.  The Ravens are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS, so they fit the system.  But the Ravens clearly aren't as bad as their record as all seven of their games have been decided by 8 points or less, so they have simply been unfortunate in close games.  I trust them more than the Chargers, who have lost three in a row coming in and trailed Oakland 37-6 at home last week.  Look for the Ravens to rally the troops at home this week.  They have only played two home games this year compared to five road games, including four trips to the West Coast, which is always difficult.  Their schedule lets up going forward, starting with this week's game against the Chargers.  John Harbaugh is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of his last 6 games as the coach of Baltimore.  Take Baltimore.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -4.5

The Key: Penn State is 5-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.4 points per game.  The Nittany Lions have held the opposition to just 11.8 points per game at home this year.  They lead the nation in sacks (31), and now they'll be up against a primary passing team in Illinois and Wes Lunt.  He won't have the luxury of handing the ball off to top running back Josh Ferguson, who is out with an injury.  Lunt will be under pressure all game as this Penn State defense carries it to victory.  The Nittany Lions are 8-1 straight up in their last nine home meetings with the Fighting Illini.  Not only do they win this one, but they cover with ease winning by a touchdown or more.  I also like the fact that James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off an ATS loss where his team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached.  Take Penn State.

7* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +9

The Key: The Miami Dolphins have been arguably the best team in the NFL over the past two weeks since Dan Campbell took over.  They have a completely different mindset as these players are really buying into Campbell's tough man mentality.  They beat Tennessee 38-10 on the road and led Houston 41-0 at home before settling for a 44-26 victory.  The offense exploded for 434 total yards against the Titans and 503 total yards against the Texans.  The ground game has combined for 428 yards the past two weeks as the Dolphins have gotten more physical.  They are 2-2 in their last four meetings with the Patriots with the home team winning each time.  But the Dolphins have led 17-3 and trailed 13-14 at halftime in their last two trips to New England, but just haven't been able to close the deal.  They way they are playing right now, I believe they can pull off the upset.  The Patriots are coming off two straight 7-point wins over the Colts and Jets, and I fully expect this game to be decided by a TD or less as well.  The Dolphins are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Miami.

7* Ravens/Cardinals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore +9

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens certainly haven't had the season they wanted to up to this point.  But John Harbaugh is the kind of coach that will keep his players focused and believing they can turn it around.  The Ravens will have no problem showing up for Monday Night Football this week.  They are just 1-5, but their record could obviously be a lot better.  For whatever reason, they just haven't been able to get it done late in games.  All six of their games have been decided by 6 points or less.  That bodes well for them given this 9-point spread as I believe this contest will be decided by a touchdown or less as well.  Arizona has put up some pretty solid numbers this year, but consider that its four wins have come against teams who are a combined 7-17, and that makes it much less impressive.  Road teams off 5 or more straight ATS losses are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Ravens are 10-1 ATS when they fail to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games under Harbaugh.  Take Baltimore.

7* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Jets +8

The Key: The New York Jets rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential at +110.6 yards per game and 3rd in point differential at +10.8 points per game.  They are the real deal this season.  They have been led by a defense that ranks 1st in scoring at 15.0 points per game and 1st in yards allowed at 269.2 per game.  They have what it takes to beat the Patriots Sunday.  New England is coming off that huge win over the Colts and I don't think this is a great spot for the Patriots.  Consider that the last four meetings in this series were all decided by 3 points or less, and it's easy to see why the value is with the Jets this week.  Plus, they have held the Patriots to only 268 yards per game in those four meetings.  They just have the secret formula to beat New England, which is a top-notch defense and a running game.  They rank 1st in the NFL in rushing at 146 yards per game.  The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against the AFC.  Take New York.

7* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on Wyoming +35

The Key: Wyoming is just 1-6 this season, but it is flying under the radar right now.  The Cowboys have covered the spread in three straight games, but yet they are still catching 35 points against Boise State tonight.  They only lost by 18 at Appalachian State as 26-point dogs, by 14 at Air Force as 21-point dogs, and they beat Nevada 28-21 at home last week as 6.5-point dogs.  They played their best game of the season against Nevada, racking up 485 yards of total offense while outgaining the Wolf Pack by 80 yards in the win.  They also have a 17-point loss as 25.5-point road dogs to Washington State this season.  This team has proven it can go on the road and play with good teams, and that will be the case again Saturday.  Wyoming is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 road games after a game where it committed no turnovers.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Broncos are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Wyoming.

7* Memphis/Tulsa ESPN Friday Night Lights on Tulsa +10.5

The Key: The Memphis Tigers are in a very bad spot here.  They are coming off their biggest win in program history over Ole Miss last week.  It was their 13th straight victory, and this team is clearly overvalued as a result.  I don't expect the Tigers to put their best foot forward against Tulsa in this one.  The Golden Hurricane are only 1-3 in their last four games, but the three losses came to Oklahoma, Houston and ECU.  They were competitive in all three games with losses to both the Sooners and Cougars by 14 points, and then a 13-point loss to the Pirates where they actually held a 463-382 yard edge.  The Golden Hurricane clearly have the offense to score at will on this soft Memphis defense.  QB Dane Evans and company are averaging 550.5 yards per game and 6.0 per play behind the expertise of former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery.  Tulsa will be amped up for this home game on ESPN.  The Golden Hurricane have won four of the last five meetings with the Tigers.  Memphis is 13-28 ATS in its last 41 games following two straight wins.  Take Tulsa.

7* Giants/Eagles MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -4

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles have simply owned Tom Coughlin and the New York Giants over the past several years.  They have gone 11-3 SU & 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the Giants after sweeping the season series last year, which included a 27-0 beat down in Philadelphia.  The Giants need a late score to put away the lowly 49ers 30-27 at home last week.  Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and injuries certainly have not helped matters.  They rank last in the NFL against the pass in giving up 304.2 yards per game.  Sam Bradford threw for 333 yards as the Eagles racked up 519 total yards against the Saints in a 39-17 home victory last week.  It appears the Eagles have finally turned the corner and I expect them to keep it rolling on Monday Night Football.  Take Philadelphia.

7* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on San Diego Chargers +11

The Key: This play fits into a system that has gone 124-74 (62.6%) ATS over its last 198 tries.  It tells us to bet on team with an ATS record of 30% or less against teams with an ATS record of 51% or better in Week 6 or later.  Teams with poor ATS records are almost always undervalued, and it's even more true when they are up against teams with winning ATS record.  San Diego is 1-4 ATS this season, while Green Bay is 5-0 ATS.  The Packers might be the most overvalued team in the league right now.  They should not have covered last week as 9-point favorites in a 24-10 win over the Rams.  The Rams had their last five possessions in Green Bay territory, but came away with zero points.  They missed three field goals and had two interceptions.  San Diego has the kind of offense that will keep them in this game for four quarters.  Philip Rivers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the business, and he's leading the Chargers to an average of 410.0 yards per game.  This will be by far the best passing offense that the Packers have been up against, and the best offense in general.  Take San Diego.

7* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville +7

The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have really impressed me this season.  They have been in every game they've played, but they are just 2-3 on the year.  They lost to Auburn 24-31, Houston 31-34, and Clemson 17-20 to open the season.  But they have rebounded nicely since, beating Sanford 45-3 at home before going on the road and topping NC State 20-13.  So, they haven't lost a game yet this season by more than a touchdown.  That's key because they are catching a TD against Florida State, which may be the most overrated team in the country.  FSU has escaped with wins each of the last three weeks 14-0 over Boston College, 24-16 at Wake Forest, and 29-24 at home against Miami.  I believe Louisville is better than all three of those teams.  The Cardinals are off their bye week, so they will have had two weeks to rest and prepare for the Seminoles.  They have had this game circled all offseason fter blowing a 21-7 halftime lead to FSU last year to lost 31-42.  Louisville is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games off a conference game.  The Cardinals are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 road games.  The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Louisville.

7* Cincinnati/BYU Non-Conference Game of the Week on Cincinnati +7

The Key: Statistically, the Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country.  They outgain their opponents by an average of 190 yards per game thanks to an offense that is putting up 587.2 yards per game.  I look for the Bearcats to have their way with a fatigued BYU defense that is working on a short week of rest after playing on Saturday.  Cincinnati hasn't played since October 1 and will be fresh and ready to go for this one.  This is a huge scheduling advantage for the Bearcats, and one that should have them likely winning this game outright.  Cincinnati is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS win.  BYU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Bearcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their previous game.  The Cougars are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games off a 2-game home stand.  Take Cincinnati.

7* Falcons/Saints TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5

The Key: Atlanta is simply rolling right now and I do not expect the Saints to be able to slow them down.  The Falcons are 5-0 this season and Matt Ryan is playing the best football of his career under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.  He finally has a running game, which he hasn't had in quite some time in Atlanta.  The Falcons have averaged 156 rushing yards over the past three weeks.  Atlanta is putting up 32.4 points and 406.2 yards per game this season.  Now this high-octane attack gets to go up against a New Orleans defense that allowed 28.6 points and 409.0 yards per game.  That matchup right there is going to lead to a blowout win for the Falcons.  It also helps that Atlanta's defense is improved, limiting the Redskins to 19 points and 270 total yards last week while coming up with the game-winning interception in overtime.  The Falcons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.  Atlanta won both meetings with New Orleans last year.  Take Atlanta.

7* Arkansas State/South Alabama Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Arkansas State -3.5

The Key: Arkansas State is just 2-3 this season, but the three losses have come to USC, Missouri and Toledo, and all three of those teams have been ranked in the Top 25 this year.  The Red Wolves even had Missouri on the ropes in a 27-20 home loss.  I really like this team because they have even played three games without their best player in QB Fredi Knighten, and they returned 15 starters from last year to make yet another run at a Sun Belt title.  Knighten returns from his 3-game absence tonight against South Alabama.  The Red Wolves are 3-0 all-time against South Alabama, including a 45-10 home win last year.  Knighten led the way with two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown.  The Red Wolves outgained the Jaguars 400-201 for the game.  This is a very inexperienced South Alabama team that returned only 5 starters from last year.  But a surprising 3-2 start has the Jaguars overvalued.  Their two losses weren't even close as they lost at Nebraska 9-48 and at home to NC State 13-63.  There's no doubt Arkansas State would have given those teams a better fight.  Arkansas State is rushing for 193 yards per game, which is bad news for a South Alabama defense giving up 205 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  The Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Arkansas State.

7* Steelers/Chargers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +4

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have had some extra time to prepare for the San Diego Chargers, which is going to be a huge advantage for them coming into this game.  They last played on Thursday in a 20-23 home loss to the Ravens in a game they never should have lost, but couldn't finish late.  Michael Vick made his first start in place of Ben Roethlisberger in that game, and he was at a disadvantage because he was working on a short week.  Now he has had basically 10 days to get ready for this game and to expand the playbook with offensive coordinator, Todd Haley.  Vick will be much more aggressive in this game, especially since he's up against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Chargers are giving up 27.5 points per game this season, while the Steelers are only giving up 18.7 points per game.  The clear edge on defense goes to Pittsburgh, and I wouldn't give the Chargers as much of an edge offensively as this line indicates.  The Steelers have the better weapons in Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, while the Chargers are really banged up along the offensive line.  T King Dunlap and G Orlando Franklin are expected to miss this game, while T D.J. Fluker and G Chris Watt are both ganged up as well.  Pittsburgh is 70-48 ATS in its last 118 games as an underdog.  The Chargers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC opponents.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Washington Redskins +7.5

The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4.  Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS.  Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season.  In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points.  Low-scoring games favor the underdog.  This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons.  The Redskins fit the system this week.  They are actually 2nd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 95 yards per game.  The Falcons are overvalued this week due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS records.  Take Washington.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Northwestern +10

The Key: Northwestern is 5-0 with impressive wins over Stanford, Duke and Minnesota by a combined score of 62-16.  Those are three really good opponents, and the Wildcats have made easy work of them.  But they still aren't getting any love here from the books as they are double-digits dogs to the Wolverines.  The Wildcats have lost the last 3 meetings to Michigan all by a single possession.  They lost in 2012 and 2013 in overtime and by a final of 10-9 last year.  It's safe to say that they are going to want revenge pretty badly in this one.  "Thinking back, those losses definitely stick out to me over the years so I definitely want to get one this week," senior left guard Matt Frazier said. Plays on road underdogs after allowing 9 points or less last game against an opponent that allowed 3 points or less in the first half of last game are 33-9 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Wolverines are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Northwestern.

7* NC State/VA Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2

The Key: VA Tech QB Michael Brewers returns from a shoulder injury that has sidelined him since the Ohio State game.  That's going to give this offense a huge boost.  The Hokies were on their way to upsetting Ohio State before Brewer got hurt, and they have been in a tailspin ever since.  But with him back, this offense is going to be much better tonight against NC State, which lost its first game of the season at home to Louisville last week after playing a bunch of cupcakes coming in.  The Hokies have one of the best defenses in the nation, too.  The Hokies are 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992.  Take Virginia Tech.

7* Colts/Texans TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -3.5

The Key: The Indianapolis Colts are going to be without Andrew Luck, which is why this line has moved so much since it opened at Texans +1.5.  The Texans simply need this game too badly to overlook the Colts playing without Luck.  They are 1-3 and their season is pretty much on the line tonight.  They got embarrassed last week by the Falcons due to self-inflicted wounds, so they are going to be playing with an extra chip on their shoulder because of that.  Arian Foster is on his second game back and expect a heavy dose of him as this Houston offense is so much better with him in the lineup.  The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and are in trouble again today.  They should have lost to the Jaguars last week as they gave up 431 total yards to that putrid offense.  They are now giving up 388 yards per game and will be up against a Houston offense averaging 384 yards per game.  Take Houston.

7* Lions/Seahawks MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -9.5

The Key: At 1-2 on the season, the Seattle Seahawks certainly need a win tonight.  That's why they will not be overlooking the 0-3 Lions, who are simply a mess right now.  The Seahawks' only two losses have come against the Packers and Rams on the road this season.  They crushed the Bears 26-0 in their only home game last week while outgaining them by 225 total yards in an absolute blowout.  The Lions have been outgained in every game during their 0-3 start, and they are getting outgained by 90.7 yards per game on the season, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.  The Seahawks will be going for their 7th straight home win and their 23rd in 25 home games Monday night.  Seattle has won its last two home meetings with Detroit by a combined 33 points.  The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams who allow 375 or more yards per game since 1992.  They are winning by 22.0 points per game in this situation.  Take Seattle.

7* NFC West Game of the Month on St. Louis Rams +7.5

The Key: I am following a contrarian betting strategy in Week 4 that has produced consistent winners over the long haul.  The betting public overreacts to teams who score fewer than 10 points the previous week.  They want nothing to do with these teams, and therefore there is serious value in them.  Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets and scored fewer than 10 points the previous week have gone 129-79 (62%) ATS.  The Rams are a match this week.  After scoring 34 points against the Seahawks in a Week 1 victory, the Rams managed just 10 points in a Week 2 loss to Washington and six points in a Week 3 loss to the Steelers.  The red-hot Cardinals, meanwhile, now have the fourth-best odds (+1,150) to win the Super Bowl.  This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Rams and sell high on the Cardinals.  The Cardinals are receiving nearly 90 percent of the spread bets this week.  Take St. Louis.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Boston College +7

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils are coming off a massive win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets last week by a final of 34-20.  But they were very fortunate to win that game because they only gained 279 yards of total offense and were outgained by the Yellow Jackets by 37 yards.  They are now in a letdown spot this week against Boston College.  This is a very good Boston College team and perhaps one of the most underrated in the country.  After wins over Howard and Maine by a combined 100-3 score, the Eagles have really shown what they could do against great competition the last two weeks.  They were only outgained by 22 yards in a 0-14 loss to Florida State.  They outgained Northern Illinois by 173 yards in a 17-14 home win that was a bigger blowout than the score showed.  That's also the same NIU team that only lost to Ohio State 20-13.  Boston College has the type of defense that will keep it in a lot of games.  The Eagles are giving up an absurd 7.7 points and 118.0 yards per game this season.  Opponents are only averaging 2.3 yards per play against this stingy bunch, which may be the best in the country.  The Eagles are 38-20 ATS in their last 58 when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Steve Addazio is 9-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of BC.  Take Boston College.

7* UConn/BYU ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Connecticut +14.5

The Key: BYU has nothing left in the tank.  It is coming off four huge games against Nebraska, Boise State, UCLA and Michigan.  Now it will be working on a short week and won't have enough to put away UConn by more than four touchdowns.  I've been very impressed with this UConn defense and believe this will be a close, low-scoring game.  UConn is only giving up 17.2 points and 295.2 yards per game this season.  The Cougars are 7-28 ATS in their last 35 games following a 2-game road trip.  Take UConn.

 7* Ravens/Steelers TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -3

The Key: The Ravens have a must-win game on their hands as they cannot afford to fall to 0-4.  They could be 3-0 right now but blew fourth quarter leads in all three of their losses to the Broncos, Raiders and Bengals.  "This is a must-win for sure," Baltimore linebacker Elvis Dumervil told the team's official website. "We won't quit, and you can guarantee that Pittsburgh, (it will) get our best shot."  Without Ben Roethlisberger, I don't give the Steelers much of a chance this week.  Michael Vick has to come in and start on a short week and won't be fully prepared because of it.  Joe Flacco owns a 6-3 record in his last 9 starts against the Steelers with 13 touchdowns passes against only 2 interceptions.  The Ravens are 14-4 ATS following an upset loss as a home favorite.  Take Baltimore.

7* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +6.5

The Key: This is the most inflated line on the board.  The 49ers are coming off a blowout loss to the Steelers. while the Cardinals are coming off a blowout win over the Bears.  Almost every time you should take the team coming off a blowout loss in this situation because there is value in doing so.  That's what we'll do Sunday as this game is decided by less than a TD.  Take San Francisco.

7* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -2.5

The Key: Missouri is the most overrated team in college football.  That has really shown the past two weeks.  The heavily favored Tigers trailed UConn late in the third quarter last Saturday before putting together their lone touchdown drive of the day, then held on for a 9-6 victory on Anthony Sherril's interception on a fake field goal with 39 seconds remaining.  Missouri overcame a seven-point halftime deficit at Arkansas State the previous week to earn a 27-20 decision.  This is the most talented team that Mark Stoops has had at Kentucky yet.  The Wildcats upset South Carolina on the road 26-22, and then nearly upset Florida in a 9-14 home loss last week.  The Wildcats only lost 20-10 at Missouri last season and will be out for revenge here.  They finally have the team to beat Missouri.  They limited the Gators to just 245 yards last week.  Missouri has an awful offense and QB Maty Mauk has thrown for just 293 combined yards against Arkansas State and UConn the last two weeks.  The Tigers are averaging 3.2 yards per rush this season, and Mauk is averaging only 5.9 yards per pass attempt.  Take Kentucky.

7* Boise State/Virginia ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia +3

The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers play one of the most brutal non-conference schedules in the country every year.  They have actually held their own this season against a pair of Top 10 teams.  They lost to UCLA 16-34 as 18-point road underdogs, and then they nearly upset Notre Dame as 14-point home dogs with a 27-34 loss after giving up a touchdown in the closing seconds.  I have not been impressed with Boise State in a 3-point home win over Washington and an 11-point road loss to BYU.  The Broncos had to replace their two best players from last year in RB Jay Ajayi and QB Grant Hedrick.  They are already down their starting QB in Ryan Finley, which is going to prove to be a big blow as the season goes on.  They managed fine without him against Idaho State last week, but now they face a different animal here in Virginia.  The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Broncos are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Cavaliers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.  Take Virginia.

7* Redskins/Giants NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York -3.5

The Key: The New York Giants really should be 2-0 right now had they not blown 10-point leads in the second half of each of their first two games against the Cowboys and Falcons, who are both proving to be two of the best teams in the NFL in the early going.  Now the Giants have to win this game and will be hungry to do so.  They get to play a Redskins team that they have beaten four straight times by an average of 16.3 points per game.  Eli Manning threw seven touchdown passes and only one interception in the two meetings with the Redskins last year.  Washington split its two home games to open the season, but now it goes on the road where it is a combined 2-14 over the past two seasons.  The Giants ranked 3rd in the league in run defense thus far in giving up 68 yards per game and 3.0 per carry.  The Redskins are clearly a primary running team this year as they rank 1st in the league in rushing, so the Giants are equipped to stop them.  Take New York.

7* Jets/Colts MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +7

The Key: The Indianapolis Colts were a popular choice to win the Super Bowl coming into the season.  They had progressed further in the playoffs each of the last three years, and many thought they were ready to take that next step.  I'm not not one of them.  But that perception that the Colts are a Super Bowl contender has them way overvalued in the early going.  That was the case last week in a 27-14 road loss to the Buffalo Bills.  Now, the Colts have to face a similar team in the New York Jets, who are built behind a Top 5 defense and one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, just like the Bills.  The Jets thumped the Cleveland Browns 31-10 in the opener.  The Jets were picked to finished last in the AFC East by most media outlets, which has them undervalued in the early going.  This is a much better Jets team than the one Rex Ryan had to work with last year.  Todd Bowles stepped into a great situation with the additions of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Marshall and Ryan Fitzpatrick this offseason.  The Colts could be without top receiver T.Y. Hilton and top RB Frank Gore, who are both questionable to play.  Even if they do suit up, I still like the Jets to stay within a touchdown here and possibly pull off the upset.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC foes and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have gone 5-3 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Colts despite being an underdog 6 times, and they are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take New York.

7* NFL *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Eagles -4.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles should have beaten the Atlanta Falcons last week, while the Dallas Cowboy should have lost to the New York Giants.  But since Dallas won and Philadelphia lost, I look for the Eagles to come out extra motivated for a win this week.  The Cowboys do not have Dez Bryant, and without him they are an average offense at best.  Philadelphia is one of the best offensive teams in the league and will rack up a ton of points in this one behind an inspired effort from ex-Cowboy DeMarco Murray.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 years, coming back to win by an average of 16.9 points per game.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Ole Miss/Alabama SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +7

The Key: Ole Miss went 9-4 last year and it would have been much better had injuries not struck them after a 7-0 start to the season.  But Hugh Freeze has improved his team's record in each of his first three seasons in Oxford.  Now he has his most talented team yet, and this is a veteran bunch with 16 returning starters.  In fact, 19 of their starters this season are upperclassmen.  Chad Kelly has been a big upgrade over Bo Wallace at quarterback to this point in leading the Rebels to a pair of impressive offensive showings to say the least.  Ole Miss beat Tennessee-Martin 76-3 and Fresno State 73-21 in its first two contests.  Alabama struggles with up-tempo, spread offenses like this one.  I clearly give the edge to Ole Miss on offense.  Alabama has questions at QB with Jake Coker, who is no more than a game manager.  Ole Miss has a better defense than it gets credit for after giving up 16 points per game last year.  I would actually make Ole Miss a favorite on a neutral field, and I believe Alabama's home field is getting too much credit here.  Ole Miss beat Alabama last year with a worse team than it has this season.  The Rebels are 8-0 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two years.  Take Ole Miss.

7* FSU/BC ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida State -7

The Key: Boston College is getting way too much love from the books here due to beating a pair of I-AA teams in Maine and Howard by a combined 100-3.  When you consider the Eagles were 26-point favorites over Maine and 44-point favorites over Howard, it's easy to see how poor those two opponents really were.  Now they take a big step up in competition against what I feel is the best team in the ACC in Florida State.  The Seminoles have played two easy opponents too, but they've at least been FBS foes in Texas State and South Florida, and they've won a combined 93-30.  South Florida is a better team than it gets credit for, too.  Florida State has gone 5-0 in its last five meetings with Boston College with three of the last four wins coming by at least two touchdowns.  The Seminoles have been at least 14.5-point favorites in all five of those games, too.  So now they are only 7-point favorites in 2015 and I believe there is some value here because of it.  Take Florida State.

7* Vikings/49ers Monday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -2

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings are legitimate contenders to win the NFC North this season.  Their defense was the most improved in the league last year in allowing only 21.4 points per game after giving up 30 points per game the year before Mike Zimmer took over.  Zimmer has even more talent on defense this season.  But the key is getting Adrian Peterson back healthy after he missed all but one game last year.  Teddy Bridgewater went 5-4 over his final nine starts last season and should only be better in his sophomore campaign, especially now that the running game will open up more passing lanes.  The 49ers lost more this offseason than any team in the NFL.  They were fortunate just to go 8-8 last year, and now I view this is a 6-10 team at best.  Their offense is atrocious with a terrible QB in Colin Kaepernick, and now he has a worse offensive line to work with.  The defense will be around league average, but it will certainly take a step back with some massive losses on this side of the ball.  There's a reason this line has moved so much in the Vikings' favor since it first came out.  I believe the betting public is right in doing so, and the Vikings will prove that tonight.  The 49ers are 0-6 ATS when the total is 35.5 to 42 points over the last two years.  Take Minnesota.

7* NFL Sunday *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Dolphins -3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins will challenge the New England Patriots for AFC East supremacy this season.  They are in the second year of Bill Lazor's offensive system, and he was with the Eagles before coming over to Miami.  Ryan Tannehill and company will be one of the best offensive teams in the NFL.  But the defense is the reason Miam is legit this year.  They just added Ndamukong Suh for over $100 million, and he'll help a D that finished 14th in the league in total defense last year.  Washington is an absolute mess right now with Robert Griffin III.  The Redskins start a turnover-prone QB in Kirk Cousins, and their defense is horrible. I'll lay the points with the Dolphins in the opener.  Take Washington.

7* Oregon/MSU NCAAF Top 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State -3.5

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans are out for revenge from their 46-27 loss to the Oregon Ducks last year.  They were in control of that game with a 27-18 lead, but gave up the final 28 points to lose in a game that was much closer than the final would indicate.  It's tough to win in Eugene, but it's equally tough to win in East Lansing.  The Spartans are the most veteran team in the Big Ten with almost exclusively junior and senior starters.  They returned 14 starters and 51 lettermen this year.  The Spartans have gone at least 6-1 at home four of the past five years while going unbeaten in East Lansing on three occasions.  The home team is 5-0 in the five all-time meetings in this series.  Oregon's defense gave up 42 points and 549 total yards to Eastern Washington last week.  Oregon does have a good offense again, but Mark Dantonio has now seen it once and will be much better suited to stop it the second time around.  The Spartans are 9-1 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the past 3 seasons.  Take Michigan State.

7* Utah State/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -12

The Key: The Utah Utes went 9-4 last season and opened the 2015 campaign with a convincing 24-17 win over the Michigan Wolverines where they allowed a garbage touchdown late to make the score closer than it was.  The Utes are solid in all areas with 14 returning starters this year.  I love their defense and feel like they will shut down this weak Utah State offense.  Utah State is in big trouble in this game after what it showed against lowly Southern Utah in the opener as a 31-point favorite.  The Aggies scored a punt return touchdown late in the fourth quarter to escape with a 12-9 victory.  Their offense only gained 250 total yards in the win.  Chuckie Keaton did not play well as he completed only 16 of 33 passes for 110 yards with an interception.  If that's all the Aggies could do offensively against Southern Utah, they have no chance of having success against this Utes defense.  That's especially the case with WR Hunter Sharp out, who had 939 receiving yards and seven touchdowns last season.  Utah beat Colorado State by 35 points in the bowl game last year, another team from the Mountain West that was better than this Utah State team.  The Utes are 13-1 in their last 14 showdowns with Utah State.  Utah is 8-0 ATS in non-conference play over the last 3 years.  Take Utah.

7* Steelers/Patriots Thursday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +7

The Key: The New England Patriots come into the 2015 season overvalued after winning the Super Bowl last year.  Tom Brady did not play well in the preseason, and while he's a great quarterback, I don't believe he's worth the amount of points the oddsmakers have assigned to him.  The Patriots were going to be roughly 2.5-point favorites when Brady was suspended, and now they're 7-point favorites now that he's going to play.  Pittsburgh does have some key guys out on offense in Le'Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant and Maurkice Pouncey, which is being overblown here.  The Patriots lost their top two corners on defense, including Darrelle Revis.  The Steelers put up over 411 yards per game on offense last year behind a career year from Ben Roethlisberger, who led the league in passing.  The Patriots are missing starting C Bryan Stork, their second-leading receiver in Brandon LaFell, and their leading rusher down the stretch last year in LeGarrette Blount.  So, they are essentially missing the exact same pieces as the Steelers.  Sure, the Steelers' pieces that they are missing are slightly better, but it's not as lopsided as most think.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Ohio State/VA Tech ESPN Monday *REMATCH* on Virginia Tech +14

The Key: Virginia Tech beat Ohio State 35-21 on the road last season, and now it's a 14-point home underdog in the rematch?  Ohio State cannot possibly be better than it was last season, and it could suffer a hangover from winning the national title as soon as Week 1.  Virginia Tech is the type of team that can upset Ohio State again, let alone stay within two touchdowns.  The Hokies return 16 starters and 58 lettermen.  Their defense is going to be one of the best in the country with eight starters back from a unit that gave up 20.2 points per game last season.  Ohio State is without four of its better players due to suspension to boot.  Defensive end Joey Bosa is a potential No. 1 pick in next year's draft, and he's out.  Also gone are Jalin Marshall, Corey Smith and Dontre Wilson.  All three of these guys had at least 20 receptions for the Buckeyes last season in playing a big role in the offense.  Frank Beamer is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Virginia Tech.  This is his 29th season, so the Hokies are not dogs in Lane Stadium too often.  There's no way they should be catching 14 points in the rematch.  Take Virginia Tech.

7* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -7

The Key: The Penn State Nittany Lions go from having just 64 scholarship players last year to 83 scholarship players in 2015 as the sanctions are now gone.  I look for them to now break through and compete for a Big Ten Championship in James Franklin's second season.  He returns 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with talent behind QB Christian Hackenberg and eight returning starters.  Hackenberg is a potential No. 1 draft pick despite struggling last year.  He has his top two receivers, leading rusher, and four offensive linemen back.  The defense is going to be suffocating again with seven starters back after allowing just 18.6 points and 279 yards per game last season.  Temple is also an improved team this year with 19 starts back, but this was a team that was outgained by nearly 70 yards per game in AAC play last year.  The offense isn't very good, and I just don't see Temple being able to score enough points to keep up against this solid Penn State defense.  The Nittany Lions outgained the Owls by 118 yards last year in their 30-13 victory, which was their 31st-straight triumph in this head-to-head series.  That stat alone lets you know that the Nittany Lions should be favored by more.  Take Penn State.

7* NCAAF Thursday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU -16.5

The Key: TCU loaded this season with 15 returning starters from a team that went 12-1 last season.  The offense is going to pick up right where it left off in the opener against Minnesota.  That's because the Frogs return 10 starters from an offense that put up 46.5 points and 533 yards per game last season.  Minnesota went 8-5 last season despite actually getting outgained by 11 yards per game on the year.  Now it returns just 12 starters in 2015.  The Gophers should be on the same level defensively as they were last season with seven starters back, but their offense is going to be even worse even after averaging just 357 yards per game last season.  RB David Cobb and TE Maxx Williams are off to the NFL, leaving the Gophers with no proven playmakers.  They lost four of their top five receivers.  Mitch Leidner isn't a very good quarterback as he threw for just 1,798 yards on 51.5 percent completions last year.  His job is going to be even more difficult now with the loss of his two studs.  Betting on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who won 80% or more of their games the previous season in non-conference games between two Power 5 conferences are 24-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take TCU.

7* Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Patriots +2 (I've been informed that the line I locked in at "+2" is not correlating to the number the line feed is showing "-1" - it must be some minor programming glitch. I want you to know I still like the Pats at -1 and even at -3 for that matter.)

The Key: Seattle was the No. 1 defensive team in the NFL statistically during the regular season, but it was far from dominant at home against the Packers in the NFC Championship, and it's up against an entirely different animal here. Led by Tom Brady, New England is hitting on all cylinders offensively. After gashing Baltimore for 422 yards and 35 points, it put up 397 yards and 45 points against the Colts. The numbers are worth noting because the Patriots are an eye-opening 72-33-2 ATS in their last 107 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. New England has risen to the occasion time and time again with Bill Belichick on the sideline and Brady under center, even against the stiffest defenses. The Pats are 30-15 ATS versus teams that give up 17.0 ppg or less under Belichick. They are 16-5 ATS in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 285.0 ypg or less under Belichick. They are 18-9 ATS in the second half of the season versus teams with a win percentage above 75% under Belichick. Besides the Brady/Belichick factor, the New England run defense is a big reason for this play. The Pats ranked No. 9 in the NFL against the run this season and have held foes to 85.1 rushing yards per game over their last 10 games. Seattle's run game needs to be effective for it to be at its best offensively, and I don't see it happening against New England's stingy run defense. When the rushing yards don't come easy, Russell Wilson will have to carry the load. He didn't perform well at all in the NFC Championship when he had the help of a running game, and I don't see him getting nearly as much help here. Brady and Belichick have lost their last two Super Bowl appearances, and that is a huge motivating factor. It's tough to repeat. It hasn't happened in a decade when the Patriots did it, and I believe they'll be the team to deny Seattle from getting it done. Take New England.

7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Packers +7.5

The Key: We are getting a great number here as books are expecting plenty of public money on the Seahawks with all the media attention Aaron Rodgers' calf injury is getting. There are several other factors contributing to this number like Seattle's 36-16 win over the Packers in the season opener and its 7-0 SU and ATS run, which included a double-digit win at home over Carolina last week. Green Bay's 4-4 road record has also played a part. But with a Super Bowl trip on the line, I'm not hesitating to get grab the points with Green Bay.

While Rodgers may not be 100%, he was 24 of 35 for 316 yards and 3 TDs with no picks against the Cowboys. He has shown the ability to put the team on his back and win football games, even while less than 100%, and I trust him more than Russell Wilson in this big spot.

Wilson is a clutch player, but he is mostly a game manager who depends on Seattle's strong running game to take the pressure off him. He got a huge lift from the running game in the first meeting, but the Packers have transformed their defense since then and have given up an average of only 92.9 rushing yards per game over their last nine games and have gone 8-1 during this stretch.

Green Bay couldn't run the football worth a lick early in the season when they first faced Seattle, but it has averaged 134.2 rushing yards over its last 13 games. The Seahawks will have to respect the run this time around, and that will open up the field for Rodgers.

Seattle is a terrific defensive team, but the Packers are on a 14-6 ATS run versus teams that give up just 12.9 to 18.9 ppg with Rodgers under center. The Packers are also on a 38-14 ATS run versus teams with passing defenses that allow 4.9-6.9 passing yards per attempt with Rodgers at the controls.

We also can't ignore what Rodgers has done away from home in his career in the playoffs. He's 4-2 in road/neutral field games in the playoffs with one of the losses coming in OT. He's won six of his last nine postseason games overall and has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in eight of 10 career postseason games.

Another factor that can't be ignored is Seattle's propensity for penalties. The Seahawks give up an average of 63.0 ypg on penalties, which is worth noting because the Packers are 22-6 ATS under McCarthy versus teams that give up an average of 60.0 penalty yards per game or more. Take the points.

7* National Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon -6

The Key: Oregon is a runaway freight train that I'm not about to step in front of here. The Ducks are 9-0 SU and ATS in their last nine games with these wins coming by an average of 26.3 points. The smallest margin of victory during this span was still 12 points. The Ducks have several impressive trends going under coach Helfrich. They are 10-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more, 7-0 ATS after a win of 35 points or more, 6-0 ATS after two straight wins of 28 points or more and 6-0 ATS in games played away from home following four or more consecutive wins. It is also worth noting that the Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games and 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Ohio State has pulled off back-to-back improbable victories in impressive fashion since losing J.T. Barrett, but they are up against a different animal here. Ohio State actually trailed Alabama 21-6 and another slow start against the Ducks will likely mean its doom. Oregon never takes its foot off the gas pedal, and that will put a lot of pressure on the Ohio State defense as well as an inexperience signal caller (Cardale Jones). Ohio State has been a great story with all that it's been able to overcome at the QB position, but I think it finally runs out of magic against Marcus Mariota and the Ducks.

7* NFL Divisional Playoffs Game of the Year on Broncos -7

The Key: Indianapolis played the Broncos to a seven-point game in Denver clear back in Week 1, but the final score was misleading as the Broncos led 31-10 in the fourth quarter and then called off the dogs. While some may look to play the revenge angle, history says that's not a good move. In fact, you want to fade teams seeking revenge for a loss if they are off two consecutive covers as a favorite. Doing so has produced a 27-8 ATS mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that Indy is just 5-10 ATS as a road underdog with Luck under center. In addition, the Colts are 0-6 ATS all-time with Luck at the controls in road games played in the second half of the season versus good teams with a win percentage of 60% to 75%. These six defeats have come by an average score of 41.7 to 16.8. Lay the points.

7* Saturday NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +7

The Key: I like the Ravens catching a TD + PAT given their postseason track record and how competitive they've been with the Patriots. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games while the Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. It is also worth noting that the Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five postseason games on the road while the Patriots are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games at home. Baltimore has won or lost by fewer than seven points in seven of its last eight matchups with New England and hasn't lost by more than six points in its last five visits to New England. The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

7* Wild Card Game of the Year on Bengals +4

The Key: I think Cincinnati will want this game just a little bit more. It was embarrassed 27-0 in Indy Oct. 19 so it will be highly motivated. Plus, this Bengals team will draw additional motivated from three consecutive early exits from the postseason. The aforementioned loss to the Colts was a turning point in Cincy's season as it responded by going 7-3 the rest of the way, including 4-1 on the road. The Colts are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games versus teams that have a winning record. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Marvin Lewis in road games when seeking revenge for a loss to a team that held them to fewer than nine points. Take the points.

7* Saturday NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +4

The Key: I'm not hesitating to grab the points with the Ravens considering how tight this series has been. While this season's two prior meetings resulted in blowout victories for the home team, this has not been the norm. Entering the season, these two had played each other to within three points or fewer in nine of 11 battles, including five straight. Including this season, Baltimore has won or lost by fewer than four points in seven of the last eight meetings. This has been a good time of year to back the Ravens as they are on a 5-0 ATS run in the playoffs, a 4-0 ATS run in road playoff games and a 4-0 ATS run in wild card contests. In addition, you want to take teams like Baltimore after a game in which they didn't commit a turnover if they are up against an opponent that committed three or more turnovers last game. Doing so has produced a 73-52 ATS record the last five seasons. Baltimore is 7-0 ATS the last three seasons in road games after a game with a turnover margin of plus-two or better and has won by an average score of 24.9 to 19.0 in this spot. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +4

The Key: Iowa underachieved this season, and the coaching staff is taking plenty of heat from the fan base as a result. If Iowa loses to Tennessee, head coach Kirk Ferentz will enter next season on the hot seat. I expect him to have his team fully prepared and motivated to make sure that doesn't happen. Ferentz typically does a good job in bowl prep and is an impressive 4-2 in bowls versus current SEC teams. Iowa blew a big lead and lost to Nebraska in OT in its regular-season finale, but it has been terrific in bounce-back spots at 41-19-1 ATS in its last 61 games following a loss. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS the last two seasons when playing away from home following a loss and have won these games by an average of 10.2 points. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games and 4-1 ATS in their last five versus SEC foes. Take the points.

7* New Year's Day *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin +7

The Key: Wisconsin will be lacking no motivation after being brutally embarrassed in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers will draw added motivation from head coach Gary Anderson leaving for Oregon State. They will be out to show Anderson he made the wrong move. Auburn won't be that excited about this game after playing for a national title last year. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams that have a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last six games on grass. Wisconsin wasn't able to run the football on Ohio State as it was held to just 71 yards on the ground, but Auburn isn't as physical as Ohio State up front. Besides, the Badgers take pride in their running attack and are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Take the points.

7* Orange Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Mississippi State -6.5

The Key: Mississippi State has done an excellent job stuffing the run this season. It ended the regular season ranked 25th in the nation against the run with 126.5 yards per game allowed. With a month to prepare for Georgia Tech's run-heavy attack, the Bulldogs should take care of business. They are 11-3 ATS versus excellent running teams that average 5.25 yards per carry or more under coach Mullen. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games and 1-4 ATS in their last five versus SEC opponents. Lay the points.

7* Pre-New Year's Bowl Game of the Year on Notre Dame +7.5

The Key: Notre Dame is being undervalued because of a 0-4 finish that ended with a 49-14 loss at USC. I'll gladly take the points as the Fighting Irish won or lost by four points or less in all but two games this season. This is too many points for LSU to be laying considering how much it has struggled offensively this season. The Tigers rank 83rd in the country in total offense and have no passing game. The Fighting Irish will make LSU beat them through the air, and I don't see it happening. While LSU is stout defensively, Notre Dame has an offense capable of giving the Tigers problems. The Irish boast the 34th-best offense in the nation overall and the 16th-best passing attack. In addition, LSU is 1-8 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home that following a win. It has lost these contests by an average score of 24.5 to 19.6. Take the points.

7* Liberty Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M +2.5

The Key: West Virginia has struggled against strong passing teams like Texas A&M. In fact, the Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home versus teams that average 275.0 yards per game through the air or more. They have lost these contests by an average score of 47.7 to 23.5. It is also worth noting that West Virginia hasn't performed well when getting extra time off in recent seasons. It is 0-7 ATS the last three seasons when getting more than a typical week of preparation time. In addition, the Mountaineers are on a 0-8 ATS slide when laying points on a neutral field and have lost these games by an average score of 30.4 to 24.5. Sumlin does an excellent job preparing his kids and has won his first two bowls at A&M. Take the Aggies.

7* Independence Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -3.5

The Key: The South Carolina defense took a big step back this season, and it's this side of the football that will cost them against the Hurricanes. The Gamecocks rank 93rd nationally in both total and scoring defense and have been especially bad against the run, ranking 108th with 214.4 yards per game allowed. That doesn't bode well for them as they get set to face Duke Johnson, who has 1,520 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. Miami has been exceptional defensively, ranking 14th in the country in total defense. It has been especially strong against the pass, ranking 10th in the nation with 184.1 yards per game allowed. The Hurricanes should have success slowing down a South Carolina offense that likes to throw the football. The Hurricanes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Gamecocks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. Lay the points.

7* NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Raiders +6

The Key: I expect a major letdown from Buffalo as it makes the long cross-country trip following a huge win over the Packers. It's been a struggle for the Bills on the West Coast, going 0-3 ATS in their last three visits to the Raiders. It's been a struggle all-around for Buffalo in this series as it is 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings. You want to fade favorites that have a winning record when they are off an upset win at home as doing so has produced a 24-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 4.0 points but have lost outright by an average of 2.0 points. Take the points.

7* Potato Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -110

The Key: Western Michigan is the more complete team on both sides of the football. The Broncos match up very well with Air Force's one-dimensional offense. They ranked a respectable 37th nationally against the run this season, and having had a month to prepare, I like their chances or slowing down Air Force's ground game. Western Mich is balanced and explosive offensively, and that doesn't bode well for the Falcons, who are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons when playing away from home versus teams that average 31.0 ppg or more. They have lost these six games by an average score of 40.0 to 16.3. Air Force's best shot is too force turnovers, which is something it hasn't done very well this season. The Falcons are 0-9 ATS the last three seasons away from home after two consecutive games of forcing one turnover or none. The Broncos had cover the spread in 10 straight games before losing to Northern Illinois Nov. 28. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Take Western Mich.

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Chiefs -10

The Key: What happened after Oakland upset Kansas City Nov. 20? It was destroyed 52-0 in St. Louis the following week. After last Sunday's upset win over San Francisco, I expect another collapse from the Raiders. Oakland is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons following an upset win and has lost these six by an average of 23.8 points. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset win at home and are up against an opponent off a road loss as doing so has produced a 72-33 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Kansas City will be out for revenge here. You want to back favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are seeking revenge and are off an upset loss as a favorite. Doing so has produced an 81-38 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last three seasons. Lay the points.

7* NFC Non-division Game of the Year on Redskins +2.5

The Key: After a strong showing in San Francisco, the Redskins were smacked in Indianapolis last week. That result bodes well for us here considering December home underdogs or pickems off a road loss of 14 points or more are 78-42 (65%) ATS since 1983. The Rams are just 2-4 on the road where they are averaging only 17.5 points and allowing 25.5 points. Pass defense has been the weakness of the St. Louis defense, and it will be tested by a Washington passing attack that ranks 10th in the NFL with 260.5 yards per game on 7.6 yards per attempt. This is significant because the Rams are on a 1-10 ATS slide in road games versus teams that average 7.5 yards per pass attempt. They have lost these games by an average of 22.0 points. St. Louis is one of the weakest offensive teams in the league. It has benefited from turnovers. However, the Redskins have a plus-three turnover margin in the games McCoy has played. Take Washington.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Falcons +1.5

The Key: Arizona isn't the same team with Drew Stanton under center. He struggled in Seattle last week, and I expect those struggles to continue in Atlanta. The Falcons are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL statistically but have shown improvement in recent weeks and have been able to come up with a lot of turnovers. They've held their last four foes to an average of 20.5 points and have forced eight turnovers the last three weeks. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS the last two seasons after allowing 6.0 yards per play or more in two consecutive games. They have won by an average score of 28.0 to 21.4 in this spot. Atlanta is at home, where the combination of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan has been very good over the years, and it still has a great chance to win the NFC South. Take Atlanta.

7* NCAAF Game of the Year on Temple +7

The Key: I love Temple in this spot. The Owls are at home on Senior Day needing a win to become bowl eligible and seeking revenge for last season's 18-point loss at Cincinnati. Needless to say, they will be extremely motivated. Temple has been tough at home where it defeated East Carolina by double digits and played Memphis to a three-point game. Under coach Rhule, Temple is 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 31.0 ppg or more. It is also 6-0 ATS under Rhule versus teams that average 425.0 ypg or more. The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game and 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Black Friday *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +10

The Key: This line is inflated due to South Alabama's 0-6 ATS slide. The Jaguars have won their last three home games, and they'll be lacking no motivation on senior day. They were smashed 42-14 at Navy last season, and that embarrassing loss will be the driving force behind a strong effort on Senior Day. Navy hasn't played a true road games since Oct. 4 so it will be out of its comfort zone. You want to fade road favorites that average 440.0 ypg or more when they are up against a team that averages 330.0 to 390.0 ypg if the fade team allowed 6.25 yards per play or more in its last game. Doing so has produced a 27-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. These teams have been favored by 11.1 points on average but have won by only 4.3 points on average. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Year on Saints -2.5

The Key: New Orleans has been one of the best home teams in the NFL with Sean Payton as head man and Drew Brees under center. So, the fact it has lost two straight in the Superdome isn't sitting well. I expect the Saints to respond. They haven't lost three straight home games since 2005. They are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night Football games. I like Brees and company to be able to take advantage of a Baltimore pass defense that ranks 22nd in the league with 251.2 yards allowed per game. The Ravens have allowed opponents to complete 64.2 percent of their passes, and that number jumps to 66.1 percent on the road - not good. This is significant because the Saints are 8-1 ATS under Payton in home games played in the second half of the season versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 61.0 percent or higher. The Saints have won these games by an average score of 37.7 to 19.0. Lay the points.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on Seahawks -6.5

The Key: I love the defending Super Bowl champs at home in a game they really need to have. They trail the Cardinals by three games in the division standings and are also contending for a playoff spot with the 49ers as well as teams in the NFC North and NFC East. Seattle doesn't have an easy game left on the schedule so it needs to take care of business at home where it has been nearly unbeatable in recent years. The Cardinals came in to Seattle and won in the regular season a year ago, and that loss will serve as added motivation. The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points under coach Carroll and have won these games by an average score of 28.8 to 12.7. Lay the points.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia +6

The Key: This is a major letdown spot for Miami, which put everything into last week's showdown against Florida State only to come up short after blowing a 16-0 lead. I don't see the Hurricanes being able to recover from that blow on the road where they are 1-3. Virginia is better than its 4-6 record leads you to believe, and it has had the benefit of a bye week to prepare. Plus, the Cavaliers need to win their last two to become bowl eligible, and they will be driven by that. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a cover, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Month on Nebraska -10

The Key: Odds makers appear to be begging for money on Minnesota, which is tied with Nebraska for second place in the Big Ten West. After destroying Iowa 51-14, the Golden Gophers held their own against Ohio State last Saturday. Yet, they're catching double digits? Something smells fishy. It's Senior Day in Lincoln, and the Huskers will be lacking no motivation. They were completely embarrassed in Madison, WI last week, and they were upset at Minnesota last season. They'll be out to save face and exact revenge here. Nebraska is 6-0 at home this season where it has won by an average of 22.5 points. The Cornhuskers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a spread loss and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss of more than 20 points. Lay the points.

7* AFC West Game of the Month on Raiders +7.5

The Key: This is a sandwich game for Kansas City, which is off a big win over Seattle and has Denver on deck. You want to fade favorites off an upset win at home that have a winning record as doing so has produced a 23-5 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Chiefs have played five road games this season and won by more than 7.5 points in just one of them. The Raiders haven't been as bad as their 0-10 record looks. They've played New England, San Diego and Seattle tough and have five losses of seven points or less. You want to back underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season if they check in with seven or more consecutive losses as doing so has produced a 94-46 ATS mark since 1983. Lastly, the underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the points.

7* NFL Game of the Month on Rams +10.5

The Key: Back home after three straight on the road, St. Louis will respond following a disappointing effort against the Cardinals. The Rams are a much better team than they showed last week. We've seen what they are capable of in games against Dallas, Philadelphia, Seattle and San Francisco. They defeated the two later teams and played the two former teams to three and six-point games. The Rams are 10-1 ATS after a loss of 14 points or more under coach Jeff Fisher and have won by an average score of 22.1 to 18.6 in this spot. They are also 8-1 ATS under Fisher in the second half of the season versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 yards per play or more. Shaun Hill is expected to get the start, and I expect him to make the most of his opportunity. His teams are 14-6-2 ATS the last 22 times he's lined up under center. Fading road favorites that outgain opponents by 70.0 passing yards per game or more and allowed 5.5 or less yards per pass last game has produced a 69-33 ATS mark since 1983, including a 17-5 ATS record the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Oregon State +9.5

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back upset losses to Cal and Washington State and further fueled by last season's loss at Arizona State, the Beavers will give the Sun Devils a game. Since 1992, Oregon State is an impressive 30-14 ATS when it checks in off two straight losses to conference opponents. It's 22-9 ATS during this span off a loss of seven points or less in conference play. It is also on a 9-2 ATS run when checking in off an upset loss at home to conference foe. The defensive side of the football has really let the Beavers down the past two weeks. However, they are 6-0 ATS all-time after allowing 450 yards or more in two consecutive games under coach Riley and have won by an average score of 32.5 to 24.7 in this spot. The home team has had a huge advantage in this series as it has won 12 of the last 14 meetings. The Sun Devils are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia Tech +5.5

The Key: The Hokies are in the midst of a rare losing streak, but having had a bye week to regroup, I expect them to right the ship. As if their current three-game slide isn't enough motivation, they saw a nine-game win streak over Duke come to an end with last season's 13-10 loss to the Blue Devils. They'll be out for payback and to keeps their bowl hopes alive. The Hokies are 17-8 ATS following two of more consecutive losses under coach Beamer. They are also 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7.0 points under his watch. Take the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jets +6

The Key: The Steelers rolled last week at home, but they are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games following a win of more than 14 points. They are also 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games versus teams that have a losing home record. Since Tomlin took over, the Steelers have been a poor investment against poor teams. In fact, they are 6-15 ATS under his watch versus teams that are outscored by 6.0 points per game or more. You want to back underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that check in off seven consecutive losses or more as doing so has produced a 92-45 (67%) ATS mark since 1983. Also, home underdogs or pickems that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games are 119-64 ATS since 1983 if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a team with a winning record. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Favorite of the Week on Western Kentucky -7

The Key: Western Kentucky's 3-5 record is deceiving. The Hilltoppers have played five of their first eight games on the road and have three single-possession losses on the season. The schedule now turns in their favor as they play their next three at home, and I expect them to take advantage. UTEP has been a bad investment as an underdog, going 3-11 ATS in the role going back to the start of last season. The Miners have been a good bet this season, covering the number in six of eight games and each of their last three. However, now's the time to fade away as they are 1-10 ATS since 1992 when checking in with covers in six or seven games during an eight-game span. The Miners rolled against So. Miss last week, but the score was a little deceiving as they were outgained 402-234. Performances like that have been telling as they are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in road games after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. You want to back home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that allow 440.0 ypg or more when they are matched up against a team that gives up 390.0 to 440.0 ypg. Doing so has produced a 44-18 ATS mark since 1992. Lay the points.

7* NCAAF Underdog of the Week on Texas-San Antonio +10

The Key: UTSA's bye week couldn't have come at a better time. The Roadrunners lost 34-0 at home to UTEP as a 14-point favorite last time out. I expect the extra time off to do them some good and for them to regroup here. Consider that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset loss at home as a double-digit favorite are 41-11 ATS in conference play since 1992. The Roadrunners have been a sweet play on the road where they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16. They are 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points over the last 3 seasons. Rice has won five in a row by 14 points or more and odds makers are only asking it to lay 10 here? Perhaps they're thinking what I'm thinking. The Owls will be peeking ahead to next week's matchup at Marshall. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants +3.5

The Key: Off back-to-back defeats, the Giants will be lacking no motivation. They will be well rested and well prepared following a bye week. They'll also be happy to be playing at home where they've won their last two by double digits. Indianapolis was shredded last week, giving up 522 yards through the air to Big Ben and the Steelers. With an extra week of preparation time on his side, I expect Eli Manning to shred the Indy secondary as well. The Colts are the top offensive team in the league statistically, but the Giants are 30-13 ATS versus teams that average 375.0 ypg or more under coach Coughlin. They are also 25-11 ATS under Coughlin versus teams that average 260 ypg or more through the air. You want to fade road teams that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they carry a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced a 73-36 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

7* NFL Situational Game of the Year on Jets +10

The Key: Historically, this is a fantastic situation to back the Jets. Consider that road underdogs or pickems are 26-6 ATS since 1983 when they check in off seven or more consecutive losses and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off two or more consecutive wins. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs of 11.9 points on average but have lost by only 4.3 points on average. Everything Kansas City does offensively stems from its running game. The Jets rank fifth in the NFL against the run with only 85.4 yards allowed per game. Their ability to stop the run will keep the Kansas City offense out of rhythm. Take the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +14.5

The Key: I missed with Oklahoma State last week but will come right back with the Cowboys here as they are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog. They are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS loss, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in November. You want to fade favorites of 10.5 to 21.0 points that allowed nine points or less last game when they are matched up against a team that's off two straight losses of 17 points or more. Doing so has produced a 29-7 ATS mark since 1992. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points.

7* C-USA Game of the Year on Florida International +6

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and well-prepared following a bye week, FIU will give Rice all it wants and more. You want to fade teams like Rice with a +/- 0.6 yards per play differential when they are on the road after giving up 225 total yards or less in their previous game when they are matched up against a team that is being outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 35-8 (81%) ATS mark since 1992. The Golden Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Redskins +10.5

The Key: The Cowboys are being overvalued here. Washington is a better team than its record might lead you to believe. It ranks 7th in the NFL in both total offense and defense. Plus, this is a huge rivalry game that the Redskins always seem to get up for. They have won or lost by less than 10.5 points in seven of the last eight meetings, 13 of the last 15, 17 of the last 20 and 22 of the last 26 so there is a ton of value in them catching double digits. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS following five or six wins in a seven-game stretch under coach Garrett, losing by an average score of 30.5 to 21.8 in this spot. Dallas is also on a 0-4 ATS Monday Night Football slide. The underdog is 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings. The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings at Dallas. Take the points.

7* AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Bengals +1

The Key: Cincinnati won the season's first meeting 23-16 in Baltimore clear back in Week 1. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play the revenge angle, but this is not the time or place to do that. In fact, you want to fade teams that are seeking revenge for a loss if they check in off two consecutive covers as a favorite. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Bengals have lost two of their last three, but both losses came on the road. Cincy has been unstoppable at home where it is 11-0-1 in its last 12 regular season games. Take Cincinnati.

7* NCAAF Bailout on Hawaii +3

The Key: This is a letdown spot for Nevada as it makes the long trip to Hawaii following a huge upset win at BYU. Not only is this a bounce-back spot for the Warriors following a loss at San Diego State, but it is a revenge spot following three consecutive double-digit defeats to the Wolf Pack. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six following a loss while the Wolf Pack are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a win. The Warriors have been a terrific investment at home where they are on a 5-0 ATS run. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the points.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Washington +3.5

The Key: Expect a letdown from Arizona State following a big blowout win over Stanford. ASU has had its way with Washington in recent years, which means the Huskies will be lacking no motivation. It also means the Sun Devils will be susceptible - their tendency will be to look ahead to Utah. Washington is 3-1 at home, and the Sun Devils are a weak 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Huskies are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Take the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State pk

The Key: Motivated by last week's brutally embarrassing 42-9 loss at TCU, and further fueled by last season's 30-21 defeat at West Virginia, Oklahoma State will take care of business Saturday. The Cowboys are an impressive 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games. They are 17-3 ATS at home since 1992 following a loss of 21 points or more. They have bounced back to win by an average score of 33.5 to 24.1 in this spot. The Mountaineers are in a letdown spot following a huge win over Baylor. You want to fade road teams in weeks 5-9 that check in off an upset win at home. Doing so has produced a 20-2 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the Cowboys.

7* NFL Thursday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +10

The Key: This line is an overreaction to recent results. The Chargers have failed to cover the spread the past two weeks while struggling to win at Oakland and losing at home to Kansas City. Denver, meanwhile, has rattled off three consecutive double-digit victories. The fact of the matter is the Chargers will be extremely motivated following Sunday's loss. They'll also be out for revenge for a loss in Denver in last season's playoffs. The Chargers have been very competitive in this series. They have won or lost by eight points or fewer in 15 of the last 17 meetings, including the last four. The Chargers are 11-4-2 ATS in those 17 meetings and 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver. It is also worth noting that they are 11-3 ATS as an underdog under coach McCoy, 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus winning teams and 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games versus teams with a winning home record. You want to fade favorites that have held their last two opponents to 5.5 yards per pass or less when they are matched up against a team that has given up 7.0 yards per pass or more to its last two opponents. This system has produced an 87-48 ATS record since 1983, including a perfect 9-0 ATS mark the last three seasons. Take the points.

7* NFL Game of the Year on Giants +7

The Key: Dallas has won five in a row and is now being extremely overvalued following last week's upset win in Seattle. The Giants were rolling before taking it on the chin in Philadelphia. That loss assures us they will be mighty hungry when they take the field Sunday. Having suffered a pair of narrow losses to the Cowboys last season adds fuel to their fire. This has been a highly competitive series. In fact, the Giants have won or lost by seven points or less in nine of the last 10 meetings in the series, including six straight. Dallas has been a downright terrible home favorite under Garrett and Romo. It has been favored at home just once thus far this season, laying 4.5 against the Texans, and failed to cover as it won by only three points in OT. The Cowboys are 10-23 ATS as a favorite under Garrett, including 6-16 ATS when laying points at home. The Boys are 11-21 ATS as a home favorite with Romo under center. Manning is 4-1 SU and ATS at Jerry World, and I expect the Giants to give Dallas all it wants and more here. Take the points.