Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Redskins/Vikings NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +17 

The Key: The Redskins have two former Vikings on their team that are arguably their two biggest leaders, and they want to win this game for them.  Case Keenum led the Vikings to a deep playoff run before the Vikings let him go the following season.  And Adrian Peterson had a great career with the Vikings.  You know both players want to beat their former team, and you know the Redskins will have their backs.  That’s why I don’t question their motivation after a tough 1-6 start to the season.  The Vikings are getting a lot of respect from the books now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games.  They won’t have Adam Thielen for this game, and they shouldn’t be laying 17 points.  The Redskins haven’t lost by more than 8 points to the Vikings in any of their last 10 meetings.  Take this 10-0 angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Washington. 

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +10 

The Key: Sam Darnold was one of the best quarterback in the NFL down the stretch last year as he improved greatly throughout his rookie season.  And he played well against Buffalo in the opener in a 16-17 loss before going down with a case of Mono.  He finally returned last week following the Jets’ bye week and promptly led them to a 24-22 upset win over the Cowboys.  Darnold threw for 338 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the win.  He finally got Jamison Crowder and Robbie Anderson involved, which are the team’s two best weapons.  And we know what Le’Veon Bell is capable of.  Darnold should open up the running game moving forward now that the Jets finally have a threat of the pass.  The Patriots are 6-0, but they have played the league’s 32nd-ranked schedule as they have only beaten one team that is .500 or better.  The Jets have played the 10th-toughest schedule this year with 4 of their 5 games against .500 or better teams.  I love the price we are getting with the Jets catching double-digits at home here against the Patriots in a rematch from a 14-30 road loss with Luke Falk as their quarterback.  Darnold moves the needle for this team and is worth probably close to 10 points against the spread over Falk.  Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are off a home win and revenging a same season loss are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New York. 

7* NFC Game of the Year on New York Giants -3 

The Key: The New York Giants got extra time to prepare for the Cardinals after playing the Patriots last Thursday.  They were very short-handed in that game against the Patriots and battled hard for 4 quarters before eventually relenting.  Now the Giants get some key playmakers back this week in RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram, who are their two best players on offense.  And they just recently got Golden Tate back from suspension, so they have ample weapons this week now for Daniel Jones, who is proving he belongs in the NFL.  Arizona could easily be 0-6.  Their 2 wins this season came by a combined 4 points.  They have a terrible defense that gives up 28.5 PPG and 414 YPG, so the Giants should score at will on them.  The Cardinals have a decent offense but are only scoring 22.3 PPG this year.  I think the Giants win in a shootout and get more stops than Arizona does.  Having the extra time to prepare for the dual-threat in Kyler Murray is a big advantage for New York’s defense.  The Giants are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after playing a Thursday game.  The Giants are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games.  Take New York. 

7* SEC Game of the Year on Georgia -24.5 

The Key: Poor Kentucky.  The Wildcats get to be the punching bag that Georgia takes out its frustration on after getting upset by South Carolina last week.  The Bulldogs gave away that game by committing 4 turnovers in what was a very fluky loss.  Now they take on a Kentucky team that has lost both of its road games in blowout fashion 13-28 at Mississippi State and 7-24 at South Carolina.  If they couldn’t hang with those 2 teams on the road, they have no chance of hanging with Georgia.  Kentucky is down to a 3rd-string QB who was a former receiver.  They can only run the football, making them one-dimensional.  That will be easy for Georgia to stop.  Georgia only allows 73 RYPG and 2.7 YPC this year.  Once Georgia gets up 28-plus, there will be no back door coming because Kentucky doesn’t have a passing game.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Georgia. 

7* Marshall/FAU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic -4.5 

The Key: Many bettors forgot about Florida Atlantic after they were blown out by 2 of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and UCF to open the season.  But they’ve gone 4-0 since with 4 double-digit victories.  I look for them to win this game by a touchdown or more at home against a Marshall team that has been very disappointing.  The Thundering Herd are 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS this year.  Their 3 wins have come over VMI, Old Dominion and Ohio (by 2) all at home.  They lost to a bad Middle Tennessee team 13-24 on the road, were blown out at home by Cincinnati 14-52, and lost 7-14 at Boise State in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Marshall only had 172 total yards against Boise State and gave up 437 yards.  The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +3.5 

The Key: Teams are starting to beat the Chiefs by controlling the ball and the time of possession.  They are doing so thanks to a banged up Chiefs defense that ranks 30th against the run.  The Chiefs have yielded 192, 180, 186 and 203 rushing yards in their last 4 games, respectively.  The Broncos have rushed for an average of 147 yards in winning each of their last 2 games over the Chargers and Titans.  Denver hasn’t lost by more than 2 points in any of its 3 home games this year.  This is clearly a game the Broncos can win outright.  The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games and have a big advantage here playing at home on a short week after playing at home against the Titans on Sunday.  They don’t have to travel at all.  The Chiefs won’t handle playing in the altitude on a short week here on the road very well, especially with all the injuries they are dealing with right now.  Take Denver. 

7* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +17 

The Key: This game just means a lot more to South Alabama than Troy.  The Jaguars are looked at the little brother in this rivalry of Alabama schools.  But they’ve gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings with only one loss by more than 7 points.  They pulled two outright upsets 19-8 and 24-18 at Troy as 18 and 6-point dogs in their last two road trips in this series.  And their three losses came by 1, 7 and 21 points.  This is one of the worst Troy teams we’ve seen in years largely due to head coach Neal Brown leaving the program.  They are 2-3 with their only wins coming against Akron and Campbell.  South Alabama has kept some games close this season against some good teams, losing by 14 at Nebraska as 35-point dogs, by 13 at Louisiana-Monroe as 13-point dogs and by 3 to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs.  They are hungry for their first win against an FBS opponent, and they would love nothing more than for it to come against Troy.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record.  The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.  The Trojans are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing record.  The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take South Alabama. 

7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3.5 

The Key: This line was 6.5 on the lookahead line last week.  What has changed since then?  Green Bay blew out Dallas 34-24, while Detroit had a bye week.  Now this line has moved all the way down to 3.5.  The price is now right to pull the trigger on the Packers at home here.  No team in the NFL has a bigger home-field advantage than the Packers as their home field is probably worth 4 points.  And I have the Packers favored over the Lions on a neutral field, so I have no choice but to lay this short number with them.  I think the Lions are grossly overrated this year.  They are giving up 406 YPG on defense, and Aaron Rodgers should be able to name his score offensively.  The Packers have been great against the pass but poor against the run this year, but the Lions can’t exploit that as they average just 3.9 YPC this season.  The Packers are 25-3 SU & 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 home meetings with the Lions and winning by 10 PPG on average.  Take Green Bay. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Jacksonville Jaguars -1 

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone 2-2 with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and he has kept them in every game.  Minshew has thrown 9 touchdowns against only one interception this year and is completing 67% of his attempts.  He has led a suddenly potent Jaguars offense to an average of 481 YPG the last 2 weeks.  New Orleans has struggled offensively in its 2 road games this season.  The Saints are only averaging 255 YPG on the highway this year.  Teddy Bridgewater has been good at home, but not so good on the road.  This will be a tough environment for him up against a good Jaguars defense.  And life could be even more difficult if the Saints are without Alvin Kamara, who is listed as questionable after missing practice on Friday.  Bets on favorites in a game involving two mediocre defensive teams that give up 23-27 PPG, after 2 straight games where 50 or more total points were scored are 35-11 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Jacksonville. 

7* Conference USA Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -10.5 

The Key: The FAU Owls were quickly forgotten about after opening 0-2 with losses to Ohio State and UCF.  But those are 2 of the best teams in the country, and they actually played Ohio State as tough as anyone has in a 21-45 road loss.  They’ve since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS with blowout wins at Ball State 41-31, at home over Wagner 42-7 and at Charlotte 45-27.  Now they will beat a bad Middle Tennessee team by double-digits tonight.  All three of MTSU’s losses have come by 19 points or more.  Their only wins were at home against Tennessee State and Marshall.  They only outgained Tennessee State by 138 yards as 26-point favorites and were outgained by 177 yards by Marshall in a misleading final.  FAU is refreshed and refocused as it will be returning from its bye week and ready to go this week.  The Owls want to avenge a 24-25 road loss at MTSU last year.  MTSU is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  The Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Colorado/Oregon NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado +21.5 

The Key: The Oregon Ducks are laying too many points tonight.  They haven’t been able to put teams away by big margins.  They only beat Montana by 35 as 39.5-point favorites, Stanford by 15 and Cal by 10 in their last 3 games coming in.  Colorado is good enough to stay within 3 touchdowns of Oregon.  The Buffaloes are 3-2 this season with their 2 losses coming by 7 and 5 points.  They beat Nebraska and Arizona State, so they have played a pretty tough schedule thus far.  The Buffaloes have the offense to keep up with the Ducks.  They are scoring 34.6 PPG overall and 43.0 PPG on the road.  They have a veteran QB in Steven Montez who won’t be fazed by playing in Eugene.  Montez is completing 67% of his passes for 1,463 yards with 10 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions while averaging 8.3 YPA.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game over the last 3 years.  Take Colorado. 

7* Giants/Patriots NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -16.5 

The Key: The New England Patriots are 5-0 this season.  They are outscoring their opponents by 24.2 PPG on the year so laying 16.5 points isn’t too much with them.  They have the No. 1 scoring (6.8 PPG) and total (238 YPG) defense in the NFL this year.  The Giants’ offense will be short-handed this week as they will for sure be without Barkley, Gallman and Shepard, and they could be without Engram as well.  Bill Belichick owns rookie quarterbacks and he’ll be bringing the heat all game on Daniel Jones.  Tom Brady and this New England offense are primed for a big game against the Giants No. 30 defense (409 YPG) Thursday night.  The Patriots are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games.  Take New England. 

7* App State/Lafayette Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisiana-Lafayette -1 

The Key: This is a rematch from the Sun Belt title game last year.  Lafayette lost by 10 at Appalachian State in the regular season and by 11 in the championship game, which was also at App State.  Now the Rajin’ Cajuns are playing with double revenge and finally get the Mountaineers at home this year.  That will make all the difference.  We are going to get a big effort from the Rajin’ Cajuns, who are clearly the better team this year.  They are 4-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Mississippi State by 10.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are outgaining teams by 195 YPG on the season.  Appalachian State is 4-0, but they are only outgaining teams by 9 YPG on the year.  And this despite playing the 143rd-ranked schedule in the nation.  This will easily be the Mountaineers’ toughest test yet.  Lafayette is 5-0 ATS in all games this year and will improve to 6-0 with a win and cover Wednesday.  Take LA-Lafayette. 

7* Browns/49ers Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -3.5 

The Key: The numbers show that the 49ers are one of the best teams in the league this year.  They ranked Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense, and they are the only team in the NFL to accomplish that feat to this point.  They are outgaining their opponents by 138 YPG on the year.  Now they come off a bye week and will be ultra prepared to face the Browns.  And their home fans will be excited to see them as they have played 2 of their first 3 games on the road.  Things are looking up for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco now that his team has finally remained relatively healthy.  The Browns are off a big division win over rival Baltimore last week.  I think now oddsmakers are giving them too much respect for that upset victory.  The Browns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent.  Take San Francisco. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers catching points at home is a nice price to pull the trigger on them.  Let alone the are catching more than a field goal.  They have never been a home underdog of +3.5 or more to the Ravens in this rivalry.  And this is a rivalry that is often decided by a field goal or less, having happened 13 of the last 25 times these teams have squared off.  The Ravens have been atrocious defensively this year.  They are yielding 396 YPG and 7.0 YPP, which ranks last in the NFL.  Mason Rudolph finally got on track last week by leading the Steelers to 27 points in a blowout win over the Bengals.  He could look even better this week against this soft Ravens defense.  There’s no question the Steelers have the better defense, and I always like taking home underdogs when they have the better D.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 matchups.  The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC North.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* ACC Game of the Year on Georgia Tech +11 

The Key: This is the ultimate flat spot for the UNC Tar Heels.  They came up just a 2-point conversion short of upsetting Clemson last week.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat and face a Georgia Tech team that is 1-3 on the season.  They won’t be interested at all in this game.  The Tar Heels are extra defeated right now after losing 3 straight games by 6 points or less after winning their first 2 games by 4 points or fewer.  So all 5 of their games have been decided by 6 points or less, and this one will go down to the wire as well.  Georgia Tech now had 4 games under its belt in the new schemes under Geoff Collins, who arrived from Temple.  And that loss to Temple last week was far from the 24-2 blowout it appeared.  The Yellow Jackets were only outgained by 18 yards by the Owls on the road but committed 3 costly turnovers.  Georgia Tech is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 home meetings.  Take Georgia Tech. 

7* UCF/Cincinnati ESPN Friday Night Lights on Cincinnati +4.5 

The Key: Cincinnati has played a schedule that is almost two times as hard as that of UCF to this point.  I like that they’ve been tested early and are 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to powerhouse Ohio State.  UCF is 4-1, but they lost on the road to Pittsburgh, a team that lost badly to Virginia and barely beat FCS Delaware by a field goal last week.  If Pittsburgh can knock them off, there’s no question Cincinnati can.  I love home underdogs in weeknight games because the atmosphere is electric, and it will be a Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati Friday night as well.  This Bearcats defense will be the best stop unit that UCF has seen yet this season.  They are giving up just 20.7 PPG and 297 YPG this year.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Bengals/Steelers AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -3 

The Key: The Bengals have a banged up defense that is soft as butter.  They have allowed an average of 494 YPG to a couple of mediocre offenses the last 2 weeks in the 49ers and Bills.  The Steelers will get their ground game going against the Bengals, who allow 169 RYPG and 4.9 YPC.  And the Steelers will slow down Andy Dalton and company, who clearly miss AJ Green at receiver.  They also have several offensive linemen banged up, so the Steelers should be able to get after Dalton.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Cowboys/Saints NFC *BAILOUT* on New Orleans +3 

The Key: The Cowboys should not be favored on the road over the Saints in the dome Sunday night.  The Cowboys have taken advantage of the easiest schedule in the NFL with games against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, who are a combined 1-8.  The Saints have played one of the toughest schedule against the Texans, Rams and Seahawks, who are a combined 7-2.  Two of those games were on the road.  The Saints are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a winning percentage of 80% or better on the season.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Nevada -2 

The Key: Nevada is for sure one of my favorite plays of the entire 2019 season.  They host Hawaii Saturday night in Reno.  Game-time temps are expected to be in the 40’s as there’s a cold front moving through Nevada.  Hawaii has had upper 80’s temps all week, so they will be a little shell shocked for these 40-degree temps.  And this game will be played in altitude.  Nevada is 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with Hawaii, and 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall with an average cover of 10 PPG.  Their dominance of the Rainbow Warriors should continue here Saturday.  Take Nevada. 

7* Duke/Virginia Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2.5 

The Key: We are getting the Virginia Tech Hokies cheap tonight.  They aren’t off to the most impressive start in the world, but they had a bye week to get things corrected and come out and take care of business at home here against Duke.  Turnovers have been a problem with 9 of them in 3 games, so look for that to be the focal point leading up to this game.  Virginia Tech has won 13 of its last 15 meetings with Duke and I expect that series domination to continue tonight.  The Hokies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Eagles/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +4.5 

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles need this win more.  They are 1-2 and have failed to cover the spread in all 3 games despite not once losing by more than 4 points.  The Packers are not only 3-0 straight up but also 3-0 against the spread.  I think oddsmakers are giving them too much respect tonight.  The Eagles get some key players back from injury, while the Packers have lost some key players to injury since Sunday. Bets against favorites who are off a home win in the first month of the season are 78-39 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Bears/Redskins NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3.5 

The Key: The Bears are head and shoulders the better team in this matchup with the Washington Redskins Monday Night.  They should be more than 3.5-point favorites in this game.  The Bears haven’t gotten their offense going yet, but they will here against a Redskins defense that has yielded 31.5 PPG and 455 YPG this season.  And the Bears still have an elite defense after leading the league in basically every major defensive category last year.  Chicago is giving up just 12 PPG and 292.5 YPG this year.  Not to mention, the Redskins are giving up 6.8 YPP, while the Bears are yielding just 4.6 YPP.  The Bears will shutdown this suspect Washington offense, and Mitchell Trubisky will finally make some plays for the Bears and lead them to a big road win to get to 2-1 on the season while dropping the Redskins to 0-3 in the process.  Take Chicago. 

7* AFC Game of the Month on New York Jets +23 

The Key: Only 5 teams in the last 30 years have been favored by more than 3 touchdowns in the NFL.  This week there are 2 of those teams.  Those 3 TD favorites have not done well, and I think the Jets are going to stay within the number here against the Patriots.  The Patriots are the definition of overvalued right now after covering the spread by a combined 49.5 points in their first 2 games against the Steelers and Dolphins.  This is a division game against the Jets, so there is familiarity.  That favors the Jets to keep this game closer than expected.  And I like what I saw from Luke Falk on Monday Night Football against the Browns.  Falk was 20 of 25 passing for 198 yards in relief of an injured Trevor Siemian.  Now that he’s preparing to be the starter all week he should be comfortable.  Le’Veon Bell showed he’s still a workhorse with 68 rushing yards and 10 receptions for 61 yards in the loss.  Bets against favorites who are off 2 straight wins by 21 points or more against a team that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take New York. 

7* Cal/Ole Miss ESPNU *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -2.5 

The Key: Ole Miss wants revenge from a 16-27 upset loss at Cal 2 years ago.  Now they get Cal at home this time around in an early start game that will be a 9:00 AM body clock game for the Golden Bears.  I think Cal players will still feel sleepy by the time this game starts, and they won’t be ready for the men among boys on the other sideline.  I’ll almost always side with SEC over Pac-12, especially when it’s two middle of the road teams here like Cal and Ole Miss.  The Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country defensively this season, holding Memphis to just 15 points on the road in the opener.  And the Rebels are clearly the better team offensively.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Utah/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -3.5 

The Key: The Utah Utes are a legit Pac-12 title contender this season.  This is a huge game for them to go on the road and handle their business against USC.  These teams already have a common opponent in BYU.  Utah won at BYU 30-12, while USC lost at BYU 27-30.  Clay Helton just has not been able to deliver in this underdog role.  Helton is 1-12 SU & 2-11 ATS as an underdog at USC with 11 losses by double-digits.  The 12 losses have come by an average of 18.8 PPG.  Take Utah. 

7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville +2 

The Key: Gardner Minshew has been playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL thus far.  He has completed 77.6% of his passes and is averaging 8.4 YPA this season.  The Jaguars finally get a break on the schedule here with the Titans coming to town after facing the Chiefs at home and Texans on the road.  This is a game they must win to stay in the playoff hunt as they cannot afford to fall to 0-3.  Take Jacksonville. 

7* Eagles/Falcons NFC *BAILOUT* on Atlanta +2 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons did themselves in last week by committing 3 turnovers against the Vikings.  They just couldn’t get out of their own way.  The final stats outside the turnovers were actually in their favor.  They had 345 total yards and held the Vikings to just 269 total yards.  Now back home, look for the Falcons to play with a sense of urgency to avoid falling to 0-2.  They will be much sharper, and you’ll see their offense live up to their potential, which is massive with all the weapons they have.  The Eagles gave up 27 points and 398 total yards to a bad Redskins offense last week.  Matt Ryan is 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in home openers since coming into the league.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Iowa/Iowa State Rivalry Game of the Year on Iowa State +1.5 

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones had a bye week to get ready for Iowa.  It’s exactly what they needed as they were humbled in needing OT to beat UNI, so it should have been a productive two weeks of practice.  I think this line is an overreaction to that UNI win.  Iowa State outgained Northern Iowa by 201 yards as that was a misleading final.  Iowa has played Miami Ohio and Rutgers, two terrible teams and is getting too much credit for blowing out both.  Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a home dog.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Washington State/Houston NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Houston +9.5 

The Key: No team has played an easier schedule than Washington State.  The Cougars are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for their blowout wins over New Mexico State and Northern Colorado.  This team lost a lot of talent from last year and now they step up in class here against Houston.  This is a Houston team that is battle tested with their 31-49 loss to Oklahoma in the opener.  They’ll be ready for Washington State, and this is basically a home game for them played at the Texans’ stadium in Houston.  D’Eriq King is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and will be ready to match Mike Leach and company score for score.  Take Houston. 

7* Bucs/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -6.5

The Key: Jameis Winston has now lost 9 straight road starts as the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Winston was awful in his first start under Bruce Arians, who was supposed to be his savior.  He threw 3 interceptions and 2 of them were returned for touchdowns in their 17-31 home loss to the 49ers.  Cam Newton has been great at home as they had won 10 straight home games with him under center before getting injured last year with his shoulder.  He is back healthy this year and coming off a decent start against the Rams in a tough 27-30 loss.  I trust Newton and the Panthers to bounce back at home tonight.  The Panthers beat the Bucs 42-28 at home last year.  They outgained the Bucs by 106 yards in that game and outgained them by 129 yards in a fluky losing effort in Tampa Bay last year.  Ron Rivera is 11-3 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of the Panthers.  Take Carolina. 

7* Broncos/Raiders ESPN *BAILOUT* on Oakland +2.5 

The Key: This line indicates that the Broncos would be roughly 5.5-point favorites on a neutral field.  I’m not buying it, and I think these are two evenly matched teams this year.  The Broncos have the better defense, but the Raiders clearly have the better offense, and it’s not really even close.  Oakland should have beaten Denver in each of the last 3 meetings.  They won at home 21-14 in 2017 and 27-14 in 2018, including an upset win as a home dog last year.  And they only lost 19-20 in Denver as 5.5-point underdogs last year.  They have had the Broncos’ number.  Now the Raiders should be much improved in Year 2 under Gruden, while the Broncos are breaking in a new head coach in Vic Fangio.  The Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 division games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Oakland. 

7* Steelers/Patriots NBC *BAILOUT* on Pittsburgh +6 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have played the Patriots tough in their 2 meetings over the last 2 seasons.  They only lost 24-27 in fluky fashion in 2017.  They came back with a 17-10 home win over the Patriots last year.  I think this game is likely to be decided by a field goal, so the price is right to pull the trigger on the Steelers.  Their offense is loaded and their defense is as good as it has been in years.  The Patriots always seem to start slow out of the gate.  They won’t be a juggernaut offensively early as they try and figure out how to make due without Rob Gronkowski.  Mike Tomlin is 30-19 ATS as a dog as the coach of the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Texas State +7.5 

The Key: The Texas State Bobcats should be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They brought back 19 starters and nabbed an offensive-minded head coach in Jake Spavital and he brought some great coordinators with him.  It didn’t show against Texas A&M in the opener as they lost 7-41 as 34-point dogs, but that’s expected against a team the caliber of the Aggies.  Wyoming is coming off a misleading 37-31 upset of Missouri, setting the Cowboys up for a big letdown spot.  They gave up 537 yards and were outgained by 148 yards in that game.  Missouri twice turned it over going into the end zone, and also gave up another turnover for a score.  Their 3 turnovers were essentially a 24-point swing.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters and the QB returning in the first month of the season are 22-3 ATS since 1992.  Take Texas State. 

7* Fresno State/USC ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -13.5 

The Key: The USC Trojans come into the 2019 season flying under the radar for the first time in a long time.  That’s because they didn’t even make a bowl game last year with a 5-7 record.  But with the talent they recruit, the Trojans won’t be down for long.  They had won double-digit games in the previous two seasons under Clay Helton.  Fresno State has been a good story the last few years, but they lose a ton of talent from those teams.  They only have 9 starters back and are the 2nd-least experienced team in the country this year. USC comes in hungry to get their season off on solid footing and won’t be taking the Bulldogs lightly.  Take USC. 

7* Wisconsin/USF ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -10 

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers are coming off a down year, which for them is 8-5.  They had won 10 or more games in 4 straight years prior.  And they should get back to being their dominant selves this year.  It starts with Week 1 against South Florida, which went 7-6 last year.  The Bulls won their first 7 games against weak competition, then lost their final 6 when they took a step up in class.  This is a step up in class for them as well.  Bets on road favorites of 10 to 21 points who were an excellent rushing team last season averaging 5.25 YPC or more are 26-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* UCLA/Cincinnati ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati -2 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats went on the road and beat UCLA 26-17 last year as 14-point underdogs.  Now they get them at home in the rematch and it should be more of the same.  This is a Cincinnati team that won 11 games last year and has 14 starters back from that squad, including QB Desmond Ridder and RB Michael Warren, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 19 touchdowns last year.  The Bearcats went 6-0 at home last season and outscored opponents by 30.0 PPG.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Florida/Miami ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida -7 

The Key: Dan Mullen turned Mississippi State into an SEC power, which is hard to do.  Then he took a 4-7 Florida team before arriving into a 10-3 team last year that beat Michigan 41-15 in the Peach Bowl.  Mullen is easily a Top 5 coach in the country, and he doesn’t get the respect he deserves.  Now the Gators have 13 returning starters this year with a loaded defense that has 8 starters back.  Having a proven QB in Feleipe Franks and all of his top receivers back from last year plus their leading rusher will help ease the pain of only having 5 returning starters on offense.  I just don’t trust Miami.  They went 7-6 last year and are going through a coaching change with Manny Diaz taking over after accepting the Temple job.  They only have 12 returning starters and will be starting a redshirt freshman quarterback.  Their offense was poor last year and will be again to start, especially facing a defense that caliber of Florida.  Remember last year Miami was dominated 17-33 by LSU in the opener, and they will get a similar fate here against another SEC power in the Gators.  The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.  Take Florida. 

7* Rams/Patriots Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER*  on New England -2.5 

The Key: Experience, experience, experience.  The Patriots will be playing in their 9th Super Bowl in the past 19 seasons.  It’s a remarkable feat and will never be matched.  Playing in their 3rd straight Super Bowl, and extra hungry off the loss to the Eagles last year, the Patriots will beat the Rams thanks to their experience in these big games.  I trust Tom Brady over Jared Goff in a big way.  Brady threw for 505 yards and the Patriots didn’t punt once again the Eagles last year, and Brady has been dynamite in the playoffs once again this season.  The Rams have been relying heavily on their running game to take the pressure off of Goff, but you can bet Belichick won’t allow the Rams to run all over them.  They stopped the Chiefs and the Chargers on the ground, and that will be the game plan coming in again.  Goff won’t be able to make enough plays to beat them.  Take New England.

7* Patriots/Chiefs AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -3 

The Key: Home teams have won 10 straight AFC/NFL Championship Games over the past 5 seasons.  The Patriots went just 3-5 on the road this year and only scored 21.6 PPG.  They will be hard-pressed to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company, who are scoring 35.1 PPG this year.  Tom Brady hasn’t been as efficient since losing Josh Gordon to suspension.  He averages 7.6/attempt with Gordon and 5.6/attempt without hime this year.  This play falls into a system that has been great in the playoffs.  Teams who scored 40 or more points in a win in their last game have gone 5-25-1 ATS in their next 31 playoff games, including 2-11-1 ATS in championship games.  Take Kansas City. 

7* Chargers/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +4 

The Key: You could make the argument that the Chargers are the best team in the NFL.  They are the only team that ranks in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  And they won 12 games this season, the same amount the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs did.  And they beat the Chiefs down the stretch.  In fact, the Chargers are 9-1 SU in their 10 road games this season playing their best football away from home.  They have beaten the Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens and Seahawks on the road this year.  The Patriots went just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final 4 games despite every game being huge for them in trying to earn a first-round bye.  They are beatable, especially since losing their top big play threat in Josh Gordon recently.  Rob Gronkowski only has 3 TD receptions this season and is really becoming a non-factor as injuries have clearly caught up with him.  The Patriots are beatable, and this is the best chance the Chargers have had to beat them in years. I expect them to capitalize.  Dogs are 14-1 ATS in the last 15 playoff games.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Chargers/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3 

The Key: The Chargers get the chance to face Lamar Jackson for a 2nd time, the only team in the NFL that gets to claim that.  And facing a strange offense like the one the Ravens run for a 2nd time is a huge advantage.  They actually held Jackson in check in the first meeting, but the offense was the problem as they were held to just 10 points.  Of course, an INT in the end zone and a fumble by Antonio Gates when the Chargers were driving to take the lead didn’t help matters.  They will make the adjustments, and continue their road success this season.  The Chargers are 8-1 on the road this year with wins at Seattle, Kansas City and Pittsburgh.  They have notoriously been a better road team than home team.  That trend continues Sunday.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Texas +12 

The Key: Tom Herman as an underdog is a scary proposition for opponents.  Herman is 12-2 ATS as a dog in his head coaching career and even better than that dating back to his time as an assistant at Iowa State and Ohio State with something like a 22-2 ATS record as a dog.  Georgia doesn’t want to be here.  The Bulldogs wanted to make the four-team playoff and are very disappointed they didn’t.  They were the final team left out.  Those teams never seem to show up when they were the final team left out, or right on the borderline of making the playoffs.  Texas will be able to hang around because of it.  Take Texas. 

7* Northwestern/Utah NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northwestern +7 

The Key: Northwestern is relishing this opportunity to be playing in the Holiday Bowl.  I think Utah is the more disappointed team after scoring just 3 points in a loss to Washington that cost them a trip to the Rose Bowl.  Pat Fitzgerald has certainly gotten his team to play well in the underdog role.  Underdogs went 11-1-1 ATS in Northwestern games this season.  Northwestern pulled off 5 outright upsets in 7 tries as an underdogs this season.  And the two losses were to Michigan (by 3) and Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 75% of their games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Northwestern. 

7* Colts/Titans AFC South Game of the Year on Indianapolis -4.5 

The Key: Andrew Luck is 10-0 lifetime against the Tennessee Titans.  Few of these games have even been close, including the 38-10 beat down the Colts laid on the Titans earlier this season.  And I give the Titans almost zero chance of even being competitive in this game Sunday without Marcus Mariota.  The Colts have gone 8-1 in their last 9 games overall and are on a mission to make the playoffs.  They won’t be denied by the Titans tonight.  Take Indianapolis. 

7* Broncos/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +3 

The Key: There is a good chance this will be the final game at the Oakland Coliseum ever.  The Raiders are looking for a place to play next year before moving to Vegas the following season.  From quotes I’ve ready from players and coaches alike, the Raiders will be up for this game.  And they’ve played well at home of late against two of the best teams in the NFL.  They upset the Steelers are double-digit underdogs and also only lost by 7 to the Chiefs as 14-plus point dogs.  The Broncos have lost 2 in a row and have officially been eliminated.  They have injuries on offense and defense that have really hampered them the last two weeks and they aren’t any healthier now.  The Raiders only lost 19-20 at Denver in their first meeting this season and will be looking to avenge that defeat.  Denver is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games off 2 or more straight ATS losses.  Take Oakland. 

7* SEA/KC Sunday Night Game of the Year on Seattle +2.5 

The Key: The Seahawks are tremendous as home underdogs.  And after losing last week, they need a win to clinch a playoff spot here.  And with the Chargers losing to the Ravens yesterday, the Chiefs can now relax knowing that they have a two-game lead on the Chargers for the division lead.  They can clinch at home against Oakland next week if need be.  The Seahawks will be the hungrier team given the situation.  And the Chiefs just aren’t playing well since losing three of their top playmakers on offense in Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware and Sammy Watkins.  They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, too, especially against the run.  They give up 5.0 yards per carry this season, and the Seahawks lead the NFL in rushing at 154.9 yards per game, so this is a bad matchup for Kansas City’s defense.  The Seahawks are 11-1-1 ATS since January of 2011 as a home underdog with 9 outright wins.  Seattle is 11-0 SU & 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a SU loss as a favorite.  Russell Wilson is 5-1 ATS in his career as a home dog.  Take Seattle. 

7* Ravens/Chargers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -3.5 

The Key: The Chargers have a huge rest advantage here after playing last Thursday, while the Ravens played on Sunday and will be on a short week with this game being played on Saturday.  The Ravens have to travel clearly across country as well.  And the Chargers got some great news this week as that extra rest has allowed their two best playmakers on offense to get healthy and return to the lineup this week.  Leading receiver Keenan Allen and leading rusher Melvin Gordon are both back.  The Ravens won’t have enough firepower to match the Chargers offense.  The Ravens are too predictable as they have run for a lot of yards lately, but not passed for many.  And it’s worth noting that the 5 defenses Lamar Jackson has faced since taking over as starter all rank 24th or worse in total defense.  So they have faced five bottom 10 defenses.  The Chargers have the 8th-best defense in the NFL, and it has been even better here down the stretch since Joey Bosa returned.  They held the high-powered Chiefs to just 294 total yards last week.  And they have allowed 65 or fewer rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games coming in.  They will be able to stop the run and make life difficult on Jackson.  The Chargers are 34-13 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Ohio/San Diego State *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego State +3 

The Key: Wrong team favored here.  Ohio getting too much respect for their finish to the season, while SDSU getting killed by oddsmakers for their 0-3 finish to the season.  The Aztecs weren’t motivated at all over their final 3 games and now will be motivated to finish off their season with a win.  The Bobcats were motivated down the stretch trying to win the MAC.  The MAC is just 6-24 SU in bowl games over the last 6 years.  And after an 0-2 start to this bowl season, the MAC is now 1-12 SU over the last 3 seasons in bowl games.  The Aztecs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs, which includes outright upsets over Boise State and Arizona State this season.  Take San Diego State. 

7* Saints/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina +7 

The Key: Despite losing 5 straight, the Panthers are still very much alive for the playoffs.  They need to win out, and it starts with this game against the Saints at home Monday Night.  They only trail the Vikings by a game in the wild card and hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles.  The Panthers are 5-1 at home this year and scoring 30.8 PPG on their home turf.  They have what it takes to hang with the Saints, whose offense has sputtered in recent weeks with just 262 YPG in their last 3 games.  And the Panthers will certainly be revenge-minded after losing all 3 meetings with the Saints last year, including playoffs.  Ron Rivera is 22-6 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Panthers.  Take Carolina. 

7* Patriots/Steelers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +3 

The Key: The Steelers need to right the ship quickly off 3 straight upset losses they had no business losing.  They should have beaten the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders, but late miscues cost them in all 3 games.  They are back home here today and ready to exorcize their demons against the Patriots.  The Pats are only 3-4 on the road this season, so they are beatable.  The Steelers are outscoring their opponents by 8.3 PPG at home this year behind an offense that puts up 34.5 PPG at home.  Mike Tomlin is 11-3 ATS off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Vikings/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3.5 

The Key: I strongly believe the Vikings are the better team in this matchup and we’re getting 3.5 points with them.  This line should be closer to pick ‘em.  The Vikings have outgained 6 of their last 8 opponents and they are a legit team with a legit defense and a solid offense.  Sure, the Seahawks have on 3 in a row coming in, but they were outgained in 2 of those games by a combined 200 yards by the 49ers and Panthers.  The Seahawks have now been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games coming in.  The Vikings are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  Seattle is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a blowout win by 21 points or more.  Mike Zimmer is 50-27 ATS as the coach of the Vikings.  Take Minnesota. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on San Francisco 49ers +3.5 

The Key: The Broncos are missing two key players this week that they had last week and during this run they’ve made.  Leading receiver Emmanuel Sanders is out with a torn Achilles suffered in practice earlier this week.  And top corner Chris Harris is out as well.  The loss of Sanders hurts because the Broncos traded away Demaryius Thomas and were already thin at receiver.  The 49ers have outgained their opponents by a total of 174 yards on the season.  They are clearly better than a 2-10 team, and I think they get to taste victory here against the Broncos Sunday.  The Broncos are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who force one or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.  They are losing by 12.3 PPG on average to these teams.  Take San Francisco. 

7* Redskins/Eagles NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -6 

The Key: The Eagles are in true must-win mode here.  They can’t lose this game because they’d be 5-7 and two games back of the 7-5 Cowboys with a head-to-head loss to them already, so essentially three games back.  The Redskins could afford a loss and still recover.  The Eagles can’t.  And I like the momentum the Eagles have from coming from 19-3 down to beat the Giants last week, 25-22.  Now they should be able to win by a touchdown or more against a banged-up Redskins team playing with a backup QB.  The injuries have taken their toll on the Redskins.  They are 1-3 in their last 4 games overall and their lone win against the Bucs was a fluke.  The Bucs had 501 total yards but managed just 3 points.  Figure that one out.  Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a game where they committed non turnovers against an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin or worse last game are 25-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Alabama/Georgia SEC Game of the Year on Georgia +12 

The Key: Georgia wants to avenge its 26-23 (OT) loss to Alabama in the championship game last year.  This is the opportunity they’ve waited a year for, and I expect them to take advantage.  They are the team best equipped to beat Alabama in the country.  They have an elite defense and an experienced offense with yet another elite running game, plus Jake Fromm calling the shots at quarterback.  Bets on neutral field underdogs who average 200 or more rushing yards per game after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 24-4 ATS since 1992.  Take Georgia. 

7* NIU/Buffalo NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Buffalo -3 

The Key: I believe Buffalo to be the better of these two teams, and I don’t really even think it’s close.  While NIU has the better defense, they don’t have the offense that can keep up with Buffalo.  The Bulls score 35.2 PPG this season behind a balanced attack with 200 rushing yards and 219 passing yards per game.  And they have a pretty good defense of their own giving up 24.2 PPG.  NIU averages a putrid 19.9 PPG and 318 YPG.  The Huskies give up 20.9 PPG, so they have a good defense, but they are actually getting outscored and outgained on the season.  They were fortunate to make the MAC Championship to say the least as the MAC West was down this season.  The Huskies are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a neutral field underdog.  Buffalo is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS against MAC opponents this season.  They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games dating back to last season.  The Bulls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Take Buffalo. 

7* Saints/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +8 

The Key: The Saints are doing something that is rarely seen in the NFL.  They come in 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  But now the love for the Saints is getting to be too much as they’re being asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road here against the Cowboys.  And this is a Cowboys team that has played much better since trading for Amari Cooper.  They have won and covered 3 straight coming in.  Their offense is good enough to hang with the Saints, and they have the 3rd-best scoring defense in the NFL giving up only 19.4 PPG.  The Saints are not good on defense, and the Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against teams who give up 350 or more yards per game.  Take Dallas. 

7* Titans/Texans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -4 

The Key: The home team has won and covered 5 straight in this series between the Titans and Texans.  The Texans have won each of their last 6 meetings with the Titans all by 6 points or more.  And those 6 wins have come by an incredible 20 points per game.  With the Texans looking to avenge their 17-20 loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season, I think they’ll have no problem covering this 4-point spread at home tonight.  And Marcus Mariota is far from 100% as he was questionable all week leading up to this game.  Take Houston. 

7* Packers/Vikings Sunday Night Game of the Year on Minnesota -3 

The Key: The Vikings are as healthy as they’ve been since Week 1.  The Packers have several key players questionable or out for this game.  And the Vikings are sure to be hungry off a loss to the Bears last week. The Packers have lost 3 of their last 4 coming in and just aren’t a very good team.  Aaron Rodgers lacks weapons because of all the injuries, and the defense remains poor.  The Packers have the biggest home/road split of any team in the NFL over the past decade.  They are great at home but terrible on the road.  The Packers are 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 8.2 PPG.  No team has been as good as the Vikings at home over the past several season.  Minnesota is 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 home games.  Mike Zimmer is 27-11 ATS in home games as the coach of Minnesota.  This line of -3 seems very cheap Sunday night.  Take Minnesota. 

7* South Carolina/Clemson ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on South Carolina +26.5 

The Key: Clemson will make the four-team playoff no matter what happens in this game against South Carolina as long as they beat Pitt next week in the ACC Championship.  The Tigers are getting too much love now after going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They did not cover as 29.5-point favorites against Duke last week in a 29-point win.  And now they are 26.5-point favorites against South Carolina, a team that is much better than Duke.  The Gamecocks have their best offense of the Will Muschamp era this season as they are scoring 32.8 PPG.  And they still have a solid defense.  They have what it takes to stay within 4 touchdowns of the Tigers.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in road games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.  South Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 road games overall.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take South Carolina. 

7* Washington/Wash State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Washington State -2 

The Key: This year just feels different.  I know Washington has owned Washington State in the Apple Cup, but this is the best Cougars team that Mike Leach has had yet.  And I think they’re ready to take that next step.  The Cougars are 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS this season, getting overlooked all year.  Their only loss came early in the season by a field goal at USC.  Washington has been overvalued all season, going 8-3 SU & 2-9 ATS.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better this season.  Take Washington State. 

7* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +7 

The Key: The Cowboys win two games on the road and all of a sudden they are laying 7 points at home to the Washington Redskins.  They haven’t been favored by 7 points or more in any game this season.  And the Cowboys are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite when playing on less than 6 days’ rest.  Colt McCoy is one of the best backups in the league and has even guided the Redskins to a win in Dallas previously.  Take Washington. 

7* NFC Game of the Month on New York Giants -1 

The Key: Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley both stated that the Giants are going to win their remaining 8 games and salvage their season.  While I don’t believe them, I do think they’ll win this week against the Bucs.  And they won their first game back from the bye over the 49ers to start the streak.  It just shows that they aren’t quitting.  And it’s worth noting they played the toughest schedule in the NFL in the first half of the season.  It gets easier now, and it started with the 49ers and moves on to the Bucs this week.  Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall.  The Bucs managed just 3 points in a 16-3 loss to an injury-ravaged Redskins team ripe for the picking.  Things are not good in Tampa Bay right now.  The Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Bucs.  Take New York. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Wyoming -2.5 

The Key: Wyoming has fought its way back into bowl contention at 4-6 on the season.  The Cowboys went on the road and beat Colorado State 34-21 and topped San Jose State 24-9 at home.  Then they had a bye last week to get ready for the stretch run, where now if they beat Air Force and New Mexico they will get to a bowl, which is very doable.  It starts with taking care of Air Force here, and they have the rest advantage because Air Force played New Mexico last week.  The Falcons only run the football as they average just 14 pass attempts per game.  That bodes well for Wyoming, which is giving up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  The Falcons are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last 4 home meetings.  Take Wyoming. 

7* Memphis/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU +9 

The Key: SMU can clinch a bowl berth with a win Friday night at home over Memphis.  Memphis has already clinched a bowl at 6-4.  It’s clear to me the hungrier team will be the home underdog Mustangs.  And they are fighting for a bowl and have been for weeks, going 3-1 in their last 4 games with their only loss coming to nationally ranked Cincinnati in overtime.  They upset Tulane as 9.5-point road dogs 27-23 and upset Houston 45-31 as 14-point home dogs.  And now they are catching too many points against Memphis.  The Tigers are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, where their defense is giving up 42 PPG and 504 YPG.  SMU has topped 500 total yards in each of its last two games against Houston and UConn while averaging 53.5 PPG and should be able to move the ball at will.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who scored 42 or more points in 2 straight games coming in are 44-12 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take SMU. 

7* FAU/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on North Texas -3.5 

The Key: North Texas wants revenge from two losses to FAU last season.  They lost 69-31 in the regular season and 41-17 in the conference championship game.  But there’s no question the Mean Green have the better team in 2018, and it will show on the field Thursday night.  The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 November games.  Take North Texas. 

7* Giants/49ers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -3 

The Key: I know the 49ers aren’t going to quit.  They show up every week looking to win.  And it paid off last week with a 34-3 victory over the Oakland Raiders.  That coincided with Nick Mullens taking over for the terrible CJ Beathard at quarterback.  And Mullens has now earned another start after tossing 3 touchdown passes in the win.  The Giants are still going with Eli Manning.  He has started every game and the Giants are 1-7.  Their offense is about as inept as any in the league because of Eli and a terrible offensive line.  The 49ers have the better offense and the better defense, and they’re home on Monday Night Football.  I think the price is right to lay the field goal with them here.  The Giants are 1-9 ATS in all games with a line of +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.  The 49ers are 26-6 ATS in their last 32 MNF games.  Take San Francisco. 

7* FSU/Notre Dame Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State +17 

The Key: This line has hardly moved since it was announced that Ian Book was out at quarterback for Notre Dame.  Oddsmakers aren’t adjusting enough for his absence.  Brandon Wimbush will take his place, and he’s a terrible passer.  He’s completing just 55.3% of his passes this season compared to 74.5% for Book.  Wimbush has a 1/4 TD/INT ratio compared to the 15/4 mark for Book.  Wimbush is a running quarterback.  That plays right into Florida State’s hands.  The biggest strength of this entire FSU team is their run defense.  The Seminoles only give up 111 RYPG and 2.8 YPC!  That’s not what you would expect form a 4-5 team like them.  But this is the Super Bowl for the Seminoles and they’ll come to play tonight to try and knock off the unbeaten Fighting Irish.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  The Fighting Irish are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 November games.  All the pressure is on the Irish tonight.  Take Florida State. 

7* Toledo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois -3 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies can basically wrap up to the MAC West title with a win tonight.  No question they’ll be motivated to get it done.  This has been one of the best teams in the MAC all season, and they should be able to handle Toledo by more than a field goal at home tonight.  NIU is 6-3 this season with its 3 losses coming to Utah, Iowa and Florida State.  The Huskies have handled their business in MAC play this year with a 5-0 conference record.  They also went on the road and upset BYU.  Toledo is still without starting QB Mitchell Guadagni.  Their backup has played well in his place, but against soft defenses, and he’s going to really get tested tonight against the best defense in the MAC.  The Huskies are giving up just 20.4 PPG and 327 YPG in MAC play this year.  That’s the difference in this game.  Toledo is allowing 26.4 PG and 445 YPG this season.  The Huskies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Northern Illinois. 

7* Kent State/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +20 

The Key: Buffalo doesn’t even need to show up tonight.  The Bulls can lose outright and it won’t matter.  Next week’s game against Ohio will decided the MAC East champion.  I think their lack of motivation will allow Kent State to get the cover here.  And I also like that there is gusts of up to 50 miles per hour forecasted in this one, which should keep this a low scoring affair.  Take Kent State. 

7* AFC Game of the Year on Cleveland Browns +9 

The Key: Backing teams in their first game with a new head coach is certainly a profitable move long-term.  It gives that team new life and new hope, and the first game out is the time to back them.  I’ll back the Browns today because of it.  The Chiefs are 31st in total defense this season, which makes them vulnerable despite having one of the top offenses in the NFL.  The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS off 4 straight games where they gained 6 YPP or more in their last 10 tries.  Take Cleveland. 

7* NCAAF Independent Game of the Year on Liberty +2 

The Key: Liberty is the better of these two teams.  They sit at 4-3 on the season with wins over the likes of Troy and New Mexico.  And they’ve been competitive in most of their games.  Plus they had a bye last week to get ready to face UMass this week.  UMass is coming off a fortunate 22-17 victory at UConn last week as they trailed most the way.  And UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Minutemen are just 3-6 this season with their other two wins coming against Duquesne and Charlotte.  All 6 of their losses have come by double-digits.  Now they have to face an option team here in Liberty.  The last time they faced an option team they lost 13-34 at Georgia Southern as 1.5-point underdogs on September 8th. Liberty is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog.  Take Liberty. 

7* Colorado/Arizona NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona -2.5 

The Key: Khalil Tate finally looked healthy for the first time all season last week as he returned from injury to face Oregon.  The Wildcats played their best game of the season in a 44-15 victory.  Tate threw for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win.  And now the Wildcats are getting zero respect for that victory as only 2.5-point home favorites over Colorado Friday night.  I think the Wildcats remain hungry because they are 4-5 and need 2 more wins to make a bowl, and this game is a must-win if they want to get to a bowl because they have a road game at Washington State next time out that they’re unlikely to win.  And they get a bye next week so they certainly want to go into their bye with a taste of victory.  Colorado blew a huge lead against Oregon State last week and lost 34-41.  I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat.  The Buffaloes have now lost 3 straight as the competition has ramped up.  Colorado is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Buffaloes are also 0-7 ATS after playing a game where 60 or more points were scores over the last 2 years.  Take Arizona. 

7* Kent State/Bowling Green MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +1.5 

The Key: Both Kent State and Bowling Green are 1-7 this season.  But it’s clear to me that Kent State is better than their record, while Bowling Green is every bit as poor as its record.  The only win for Bowling Green came 42-35 at home over Eastern Kentucky.  The lone win for Kent State came 54-14 over Howard, the same Howard team that only lost 32-38 to Ohio.  And Kent State has losses by 1, 1, and 7 points this season to Illinois, Ohio and Akron.  Bowling Green’s 7 losses have all come by 7 points or more, and 6 of them by 15 points or more.  These teams have 2 common opponents with both losing, the difference being Kent State only losing by 13 PPG while Bowling Green losing by 25 PPG.  The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams who average 250 PYPG or more and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. teams who allow 230 RYPG or more.  The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following a loss.  The Falcons are 1-10 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 years.  Take Kent State. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on California +12 

The Key: The Cal Golden Bears finally snapped out of their funk with a 49-7 beat down of Oregon State.  That result was more indicative of the potential of this team than the three consecutive losses that preceded it.  The Golden Bears gave away those three games by committing a combined 14 turnovers in them, which is almost unheard of.  They only gave the ball away once against Oregon State and amassed 539 total yards.  They can play with Washington if they don’t turn the ball over, and likely beat them.  The Huskies are just 2-6 ATS in their 8 games this season and have been overrated all season.  They should not be double-digit road favorites over the Bears this weekend.  Cal is 7-0 ATS off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Take Cal. 

7* Wyoming/Colorado State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State -1.5 

The Key: I love the price we are getting on Colorado State as less than a field goal home favorite over Wyoming Friday night.  The Rams still have something to play for at 3-5 as they need to win 3 of their final 4 games to make a bowl.  And this one is their most winnable, so they should handle their business.  The Rams have a full week to get ready for this game after playing last Friday.  Their offense put up 489 total yards against Boise State in what was a misleading 28-56 loss.  The Broncos got 2 special teams touchdowns and the Rams outgained them by 17 yards.  Collin Hill took over for Carta-Samuels at QB midway through the game and finished 12-of-14 for 135 yards and a touchdown.  Hill is expected to get the start this week and is an upgrade over Carta-Samuels.  Wyoming is just 2-6 with very little to play for at this point.  It is coming off 4 consecutive losses, and its two wins this season have come against Wofford (17-14) and New Mexico State.  The Cowboys have been atrocious on offense in averaging just 15.5 PPG and 289 YPG this season.  I’m not sure how they are going to keep up with this potent Colorado State offense.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Wyoming is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Colorado State. 

7* Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -3 

The Key: I love the situation for the Hokies tonight.  Both them and Georgia Tech are coming off bye weeks, and that clearly favors the Hokies.  Any time a team has extra time to prepare for the triple-option I’m looking to back that team because it’s so critical to get that extra prep time.  Whether it be off a bye or for a bowl game, it’s a huge advantage.  And defensive coordinator Bud Foster will be extra hungry after losing to Georgia Tech each of the last two seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Georgia Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall.  The Hokies are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Giants/Falcons NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +4.5 

The Key: The Falcons haven’t been covering this season because they can’t play defense.  They are 2-4 ATS, but their two covers came by 2 points over the Falcons and by 2 points over the Bucs.  That Bucs win last week needed a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant in the closing seconds to cover the 3-point spread in a 5-point win.  And Bryant hurt his hamstring on the kick and will miss this game.  As far as kickers go, Bryant is one of the most valuable in the league.  And his role is even larger in recent seasons with all of the red zone struggles by the Falcons.  But the biggest reason I’m fading the Falcons this week is their defense.  They are giving up 32 PPG and 418 YPG this season.  They are missing 3 defensive starters due to injury and haven’t been able to replace them.  The Giants have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  The Giants are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a Thursday game.  The Giants are also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games.  Take New York. 

7* Titans/Chargers London *Early Riser* on Los Angeles -6.5 

The Key: The Chargers are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are 4-2 on the season with their only two losses coming to the Rams and Chiefs, who are the two best teams in the NFL to this point.  They crushed the Raiders by 16 at home before an even more impressive 38-14 road win over the Browns in their last two games.  They should have another blowout victory over the Titans here.  The Titans lost 21-0 last week to the Ravens and just have no semblance of an offense whatsoever.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL at 14.5 PPG and 263 YPG on offense.  Philip Rivers and company are scoring 29.2 PPG with 412 YPG on offense.  I just don’t see how the Titans can hang with Rivers and company here.  The Chargers are 29-4 ATS in their last 33 vs. AFC South teams.  The Titans are 17-42-4 ATS in their last 63 vs. AFC teams.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* SEC Game of the Week on Ole Miss +4 

The Key: I think Auburn has thrown in the towel already.  The Tigers had SEC title aspirations coming into the season, but now they’ve lost 3 games already.  And they just aren’t that good.  They are coming off an ugly 24-30 home loss to Tennessee as 15.5-point favorites.  And I question their motivation now with 3 losses.  Ole Miss is feeling good with a 5-2 start with its only losses coming to LSU and Alabama, two of the best teams in the country.  They got a big 37-33 comeback road win at Arkansas last week.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Colorado State/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State +24 

The Key: Colorado State has played Boise State tough the last 2 years.  The Rams only lost by 5 as 28-point road underdogs in 2016 . And last year they lost by 7 in overtime as 6.5-point home dogs.  They led by 14 late in that game and it took a miracle for Boise State to win.  So the Rams will be out for revenge for sure.  And they are catching a whopping 24 points in this year’s meeting.  I just think Boise State is overrated right now.  They lost to San Diego State outright and barely beat Nevada in their last two games.  The Broncos are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games.  The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Colorado State. 

7* Broncos/Cardinals NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -1 

The Key: We’re getting the better team here in the Broncos where they just have to win the game to cover the spread.  I’ll take it.  The Broncos need a win here after 4 straight losses against a tough schedule where they were underdogs in all 4 games.  But here they’re back to a favorite against the worst team in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals.  It’s a Cardinals team that is putting up just 13.7 PPG and 220 YPG this season on offense.  You can’t win in today’s NFL with that kind of offense.  And now the Cardinals will be down two starting offensive linemen in Justin Push and Mike Iupati.  That doesn’t bode well for them against this dominant Denver defensive line.  The Broncos are moving the ball just fine averaging 388 YPG and 6.2 YPP.  The Broncos have won 8 of their last 9 meetings with the Cardinals for an 89% success rate.  Take Denver. 

7* 49ers/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -9 

The Key: The Packers are 2-0-1 at home this season.  The last time they were at home they blew out the Bills 22-0.  And they’ll be hungry for a victory today after giving the game away against Detroit last week in a 23-31 road loss.  They outgained the Lions by 257 yards in that game a week after outgaining the Bills by 276 yards.  But they missed out on 10 possible points from kicker Mason Crosby and lost he turnover battle 3-0.  The 49ers just lost by 10 at home to the lowly Cardinals of all teams last week.  The 49ers are now 1-12 in games in which Jimmy G doesn’t start over the last 2 seasons, and most of those losses can be attributed to the inept CJ Beathard.  It doesn’t help that the 49ers have all kinds of injuries at receiver and along the offensive line as well.  I don’t expect them to be able to stay within double-digits of the Packers tonight.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 October games.  The Packers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 October games.  The Packers are 11-4-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the 49ers.  Take Green Bay. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +2 

The Key: Big Ben and the Steelers own the Bengals and should not be underdogs in this AFC North battle.  Especially not since they need the win more trailing the Bengals by 1.5 games right now.  The Steelers have won 6 straight meetings with the Bengals.  They are 8-1 in their last 9 trips to Cincinnati as well.  And Big Ben is 25-4-1 in the state of Ohio in his career.  The Bengals just don’t match up well with the Steelers at all, and they are very fortunate to be 4-1 this season.  They get a dose of reality Sunday.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Florida -7 

The Key: Many would expect Florida to have a letdown after their big 27-19 win over LSU last week.  However, the Gators have a bye on deck next week, so that kind of trumps that theory.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a win here against Vanderbilt knowing that they have next week off.  Florida is 25-1 SU in its last 26 meetings with Vanderbilt, including 13-0 in its last 13 trips to Vanderbilt.  The Commodores have been awful in their last 3 games.  They lost 14-37 at home to South Carolina, barely beat Tennessee State 31-27 as 28.5-point home favorites, and lost 13-41 at Georgia.  They have come back down to reality after a fast start to the season against weak competition.  The Gators have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with wins by 38 over Colorado State, by 26 at Tennessee, by 7 at Mississippi State and by 8 at home over LSU.  They continue rolling Saturday.  Take Florida. 

7* Arizona/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona +14 

The Key: Utah is getting too much respect from its 40-21 win at Stanford last week.  The Cardinal were gassed in that game as they were playing a 3rd straight tough game after facing Oregon and Notre Dame the previous two weeks.  The Utes took advantage.  But now they’ll laying two touchdowns to the Arizona Wildcats, who have won 3 of their last 4 coming in with their only loss coming 20-24 to USC.  Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Arizona have been decided by 14 points or fewer.  The Wildcats can hang here, especially since the Utes have an underwhelming offense that makes it tough for them to win by a margin.  Take Arizona. 

7* PHI/NY NFC East Game of the Month on New York +3 

The Key: Despite being 1-4, the Giants are actually just one game out of first place in the NFC East.  It’s been a bad division and the Giants at least still feel like they’re in it.  So they won’t be giving up on their season any time soon.  And they showed a lot of heart by coming back from 17-3 down to actually take a lead in Carolina on Sunday.  But they lost 31-33 on a 63-yard field goal.  The Giants will be hungry to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles tonight.  The Eagles are getting everyone’s best shot, and they aren’t handling it too well.  They are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games with their only win coming 20-16 over the Colts.  They are two goal-line stands away from being 0-5.  They have injuries everywhere, especially on offense that are holding them back.  And the Super Bowl hangover just appears to be real with this squad.  They should not be 3-point road favorites over the Giants this week.  Thursday NFL home teams are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  It’s a huge advantage to play at home on a short week.  The Giants are 6-0 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Take New York. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Month on Arkansas State +10.5 

The Key: This spread has gotten out of control with Appalachian State laying double-digits on the road against a Sun Belt power in Arkansas State that has won 5 titles in the past 6 seasons.  This one is all about strength of schedule for me.  App State has played a very weak schedule with three cupcakes and only one tough game at Penn State, which was back in Week 1.  Arkansas State has played 4 games already against solid programs in Alabama, Tulsa, UNLV and Georgia Southern.  I expect the Red Wolves to play the underdog card up tonight and be extra hungry for a victory.  They are 1-4 ATS this season and undervalued because of it, while App State is 4-0 ATS and overvalued.  This is simply too many points tonight.  Take Arkansas State. 

7* Redskins/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +6 

The Key: The Redskins have put up the kind of numbers this season that should make you think twice about them.  Most write them off as just a mediocre team.  But the numbers say otherwise.  They are averaging 383 yards per game on offense while giving up a mere 278 yards per game on defense.  They are gaining 5.9 yards per play on offense and giving up 4.9 yards per play on defense.  You won’t find many teams that can claim having anything close to that good of numbers thus far.  And now the Redskins are fresh because they had a bye last week.  The Saints lost outright to the Bucs at home and beat the Browns by a field goal in their two home games this season.  I can’t see them winning this game by a touchdown or more against the Redskins, who are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Saints.  Take Washington. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Steelers -3 

The Key: The Falcons and Steelers are two similar teams in that they both have great offenses and suspect defenses.  But the Steelers can get stops, and I’m not sure the Falcons can due to all their injuries right now.  The Falcons are without 4 starters in D in S Keanu Neal, LB Deion Jones, S Ricardo Allen and DT Grady Jarrett.  Top pass rusher Vic Beasley is also questionable with an ankle injury.  The Falcons have given up 43 points to the Saints and 37 to the Bengals in consecutive weeks.  Ben Roethlisberger and company should have their way with this Atlanta defense too.  Pittsburgh is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division foe as a favorite.  It is coming back to win by 9.7 points per game in this situation.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Iowa State +9.5 

The Key: Iowa State is battle-tested already having played Oklahoma, Iowa and TCU with two of those games on the road.  And yet they still haven’t lost by more than 10 points in any game, being competitive in all of them.  Oklahoma State will be the fourth-best team they have faced yet.  And I would argue that Iowa State is probably the best team that Oklahoma State has played.  And the Cowboys lost 17-41 at home to Texas Tech as 14.5-point favorites, so they are beatable.  And the Cyclones want revenge from some close calls recently against the Cowboys.  They have lost 5 straight to Oklahoma State, including the last three all by 7 points or less.  I expect this one to go down to the wire as well, so the price is right to back the Cyclones here catching nearly double-digits.  The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The Cyclones are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Iowa State is 10-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow 58% competitions or more over the last 3 seasons.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Utah State/BYU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State +2 

The Key: Utah State has gone on to prove that its narrow 31-38 loss to Michigan State as 23.5-point underdogs in the opener was no fluke.  They have since gone 3-0 with a 60-13 win over New Mexico State, a 73-12 win over Tennessee Tech and a 42-32 win over Air Force.  And now the Aggies are in the perfect spot having a bye since that Air Force win to get ready for BYU.  Meanwhile, BYU has played a brutal schedule to start and has had no time off.  They’ve played Arizona, Cal, Wisconsin, and Washington.  It looked like they ran out of gas last week against Washington, losing 7-35 while getting outgained by 270 yards.  I don’t think they’ll have much left in the tank here Friday on this short week against a rested Utah State squad.  The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Aggies are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 Friday games.  The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  BYU is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. teams who average 450 or more yards per game on offense.  Take Utah State. 

7* Colts/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -10 

The Key: This is such a tough spot for the Colts.  They are on a short week and coming off an overtime game against the Texans.  And they now have to travel to New England.  Home teams have dominated Thursday games for the last several years because it’s such an advantage for them.  And add in the fact that the Colts have a massive injury report and I just don’t see them even being competitive tonight.  The Patriots are 7-0 in their last 7 meetings with the Colts.  They have won the last 5 meetings by an average of 24.6 PPG.  Enough said.  Take New England. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on UL-Lafayette +49.5 

The Key: Alabama is notorious for not being able to cover the spread in these situations.  They are coming off a big win over Texas A&M, and now they step out of the conference this week before playing another SEC game against Arkansas next week.  They just don’t seem like they are ever concerned with running up the score.  The starters should be out of the game early in the 3rd quarter.  That’s going to make it difficult for them to win by 50-plus to cover this spread.  Bets on underdogs of 31.5 or more points who failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games against a team with a. Winning record are 48-17 ATS since 1992.  Take UL-Lafayette. 

7* Memphis/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Tulane +15 

The Key: This feels like a huge game for Tulane if they want to get to a bowl game this year.  The Green Wave have opened 1-3 with road losses to UAB and Ohio State and a home loss to Wake Forest amidst a brutal schedule.  I think they will be ‘all in’ here trying to get a win against Memphis.  This is a Memphis team that only beat lowly South Alabama 52-35 as 31.5-point home favorites last week.  If South Alabama can hang, I certainly believe Tulane can at home.  And Memphis lost its only road game this year 21-22 at Navy, getting upset at 6.5-point favorites.  The Tigers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 50 points or more.  The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS in home games off a non-conference game over the last 3 years.  Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games overall.  Take Tulane. 

7* Vikings/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +7.5 

The Key: The Vikings are simply catching too many points tonight against the Los Angeles Rams.  The Vikings have been downgraded big time by the public after their upset loss to the Bills last week.  But that loss will only have them even more hungry to bounce back tonight.  And the Rams could not be viewed any higher in the public’s eyes after their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start.  But they have beaten three teams in the Raiders, Cardinals and Chargers who have a combined one win between them this season.  Minnesota shut down the Rams 24-7 at home last year.  Jared Goff hasn’t seen a defense nearly as strong as the one he will be up against tonight.  The Vikings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  The Vikings are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 games overall.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Steelers/Bucs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -1 

The Key: Before the season, the Steelers would have been close to a touchdown favorite here at Tampa Bay.  But after two weeks, the perception of the Steelers is way down because they tied the Browns and lost to the Chiefs.  But it’s clear the Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, and the Browns are one of the most improved teams in the league.  The Bucs are 2-0 out of nowhere with upset wins over both the Saints and Eagles.  Their perception is through the roof right now.  They are overvalued.  Pittsburgh is still the better of these two teams.  They have the better defense and the better offense.  And now they are playing extra hungry looking for their first win of the year.  Expect the Steelers to come out like gangbusters in this one.  Mike Tomlin is 17-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of the Steelers.  The Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a. Winning home record.  The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Chargers/Rams *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Chargers +7 

The Key: The Rams are getting too much hype right now.  They beat two bad teams in the Raiders and Cardinals and now everyone is crowning them Super Bowl champs already.  And they’re being priced like is as they are now the Super Bowl favorites, and they are 7-point favorites here against a good Chargers team.  The Rams won’t have much of a home-field advantage in this one as both of these teams are based in Los Angeles.  And the Chargers have notoriously been a better road team than home team.  The Chargers are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Take the Chargers. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Clemson -16 

The Key: The Clemson Tigers aren’t laying enough points to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  That’s largely due to the fact that they are 0-3 ATS on the season, costing bettors money up to this point.  But I think the price is right to back them now here in a game they should win by 3 touchdowns and finally cash in a winning ticket.  They have owned Georgia Tech in recent seasons, holding them to a combined 17 points in the last 2 meetings.  They have figured out how to stop the triple-option, and they are coming off a dominant 38-7 win over Georgia Southern and their triple-option last week, giving them great preparation for this game Saturday.  The Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush on the ground in their last 3 meetings with them.  Georgia Tech lost 1,000-yard rusher KirVonte Benson a few weeks back against USF, and it’s no wonder they are coming off back-to-back losses as they fell to Pitt last week as well.  This should be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 31-7 victory Saturday, if not worse.  Take Clemson. 

7* FAU/UCF ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic +13.5 

The Key: I think UCF is overvalued due to having not lost a game since 2016.  And I think losing their game last week due to weather is a bad thing for them.  FAU is a team that returned 16 starters this year including 10 on defense.  The Owls have been tested as they’ve already played Oklahoma and Air Force.  They have had this game circled on their calendars and should put forth a home run effort.  UCF has not been tested yet playing Upon and South Carolina State.  The UConn put up 486 total yards on this UCF defense.  The Owls should have plenty of success with their running game, which is elite.  The Knights have allowed 198 rushing yards per game in their two games against awful competition.  The Owls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Florida Atlantic.