Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Maryland/BC Quick Lane Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston College +2

The Key: Boston College pulled the 17-14 upset at Wake Forest to punch its ticket to the postseason in the season finale.  The Eagles are very excited to be here after winning their final 2 games.  Their offense isn't great but was improved this year, and they had the 12th-ranked defense in the country according to our rankings.  Maryland doesn't do any one thing well and was a bad team this year.  Of the Terrapins' six wins, four have been against teams outside the Top 100, and hteir best win by far was against a 3-9 Michigan State team.  The Terrapins have no passing game and can only run the football on offense.  Well, that makes this a great matchup for the Eagles, who give up just 107 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  The Terrapins give up 218 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season.  Maryland is 0-6 ATS off a conference win over the last 3 seasons.  The Terrapins are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.  The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.  Take Boston College.

7* DEN/KC AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Broncos +3.5

The Key: The Chiefs are nowhere near as good as their 10-4 record.  They have been outgained by an average of 88 yards per game in their last 7 contests.  They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential this season.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors, but they have lost two of their recent home games to the Titans and Buccaneers.  The Chiefs are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The road team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings between the Broncos and Chiefs while going a perfect 6-0 against the spread.  Denver clearly should have won the first meeting this season as it outgained KC by 191 yards.  Now the Broncos will have their revenge and keep their season alive in the rematch on the road at Arrowhead Stadium, which hasn't been as friendly to the Chiefs as most believe.  Take Denver.

7* NFL Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Redskins -3

The Key: I always look to back teams off a bad loss and fade teams off an emotional game.  In this case, we have the perfect situation.  The Redskins are coming off a bad home loss to the Panthers in which they lost by 11 as 7-point favorites.  Now everyone is writing them off, but we've seen them bounce back before.  They won four straight following their 0-2 start, and they have only lost two games in a row twice all season.  Those were to the Steelers/Cowboys and Cowboys/Cardinals, so it's understandable.  They aren't going to lose to the lowly 3-11 Bears this week as the Redskins need to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs.  The Bears will be deflated following back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Lions (by 3) and Packers (by 3).  They fought back from a 17-point deficit to tie it against the Packers last week, only to lose on a last-second field goal.  I don't think these players will be able to get back up off the mat from that crushing defeat against their biggest rivals.  I fully expect a no-show from the Bears here.  Washington is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who complete 61% or more of their passes this season.  The Redskins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.  Washington is a perfect 6-0 straight up in its last 6 meetings with Chicago.  The Redskins are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to Chicago.  Take Washington.

7* Eastern Michigan/Old Dominion NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +6

The Key: It's safe to say that the Eastern Michigan Eagles are happy to be going bowling.  After all, they haven't been to a bowl game in 29 years.  The Eagles haven't been handed anything this year.  They've earned it with a pair of wins over conference championship participants in Ohio (MAC) and Wyoming (Mountain West).  The Eagles are led by three-time MAC Offensive Player of the Week Brogan Roback, who guided an offense that set school records for total offense (5,447), passing offense (3,549) and total points (396).  The offensive line has allowed the 12th-fewest sacks in the national and the second-fewest tackles for loss.  There is another motivational angle that favors the Eagles.  They want revenge from a 38-34 loss to Old Dominion last season, and they are far and away better than they were last season.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders this season.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Monarchs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* NFC Game of the Month on New York Giants -4

The Key: Matthew Stafford has a bum finger on his throwing hand that is going to limit what he's able to do against the Giants this week.  It's not going to help having such cold weather in the Meadowlands, either.  Stafford threw two interceptions against the Bears after injuring his finger last week.  He needs to be at full strength for the Lions to have any chance of moving the football on a Giants defense that only allows 18.8 points per game this year.  I look for Stafford to struggle, and the Lions don't have a running game to bail him out.  The Giants are 6-1 at home this season and will take care of business on their home turf Sunday.  Stafford has exactly one career road win over a team that finished with a winning record.  The Lions will get exposed for the frauds that they are this week.  Take New York.

7* UTSA/New Mexico NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on New Mexico -7.5

The Key: The New Mexico Lobos will be playing in their hometown bowl for a second consecutive season.  After falling just short in a 37-45 loss to Arizona last year, they will be hungry to earn their first bowl win since 2007 Saturday.  That's why I'm not concerned about any lack of motivation playing in this bowl game again.  Bob Davie has done as good a coaching job as anyone in the country.  He got them to their first bowl since 2007 last year, and now the Lobos have a chance to win 9 games.  Davie has this Lobos' offense hitting on all cylinders with 37.8 points per game and a FBS-best 361 rushing yards per game.  The Lobos have a big-play offense with two running backs in Teriyon Gipson (1,209 yards, 12 TD) and Tyrone Owens (1,084 yards, 7 TD) who both average over 8.0 yards per carr on the season.  UTSA's offense is only averaging 376 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.  They don't have the firepower to keep up with the Lobos in this one.  New Mexico is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games off an upset win over a conference opponent as a home dog.  The Lobos come in confident after throttling Wyoming 56-35 as 3-point dogs in their season finale.  They put up 690 total yards on the Cowboys, who went on to play in the MWC Championship Game.  The Roadrunners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.  Take New Mexico.

7* LA/SEA NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Rams +16

The Key: Betting underdogs of this size in the NFL has been a very profitable move over the long haul.  I especially like doing it when we're talking about division games.  Even the worst teams get up for these division games, and I think the Rams will bring their best effort tonight.  They have a new coach in John Fassel and a better outlook now with Jeff Fisher gone.  The Rams have actually owned the Seahawks recently.  They've won 4 of the last 5 meetings outright as underdogs.  They won both meetings last year, and they won 9-3 at home this year over the Seahawks.  The Rams have the defense that will keep them in this game for 4 quarters.  I expect Jared Goff and Todd Gurley to make just enough plays to keep them competitive throughout.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NFL Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans -1

The Key: Just imagine how excited the Tennessee Titans were over their bye last week.  They haven't been in contention this late in the season for a long time as they are in a three-way tie for the AFC South lead with the Colts and Texans.  They have had a bounce to their step all week leading up to this game, and they are primed for a huge performance at home against the Denver Broncos.  The Titans have been the best team in the AFC South in my opinion.  They have actually scored 11 more offensive touchdowns than they've given up to opposing offenses this year.  Marcus Mariota has thrown at least two touchdown passes in 8 consecutive games.  That's impressive when you consider the Titans are known for running the football, as they rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing at 141.5 yards per game.  They will be able to exploit the weakness of the Broncos' D, which is their 28th-ranked run defense allowing 122.8 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  The Broncos defense has to be fatigued after playing a combined 157 snaps over the past 2 weeks, which has to be some kind of NFL record.  Their offense continues to put them in bad spots week after week.  The Broncos have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games.  I just think the rest and motivational edges here for the Titans should warrant them being more than 1-point favorites.  They essentially just have to win the game to cover this week, and win they will do.  Take Tennessee.

7* IND/NYJ AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +1.5

The Key: The biggest reason for the Colts having a better record to this point than the Jets is that they have played an easier schedule.  They have played the 6th-easiest slate of games this season, while the Jets have played the 5th-hardest.  I think we see the Jets rise to the occasion here on Monday Night Football as this may be the last time we get max effort out of them because they are on such a big stage.  The Colts have been outgained in 7 of their last 8 games overall and just aren't a very good team, mainly because of their defense that ranks 30th in the league.  And that defense has some huge injuries right now as LB Robert Mathis, S Clayton Geathers and CB Patrick Robinson are all expected to miss this game.  Not to mention CB Vontae Davis is questionable with a groin injury that has made him ineffective in recent weeks.  The Jets' defensive line has a huge advantage against the Colts' offensive line, which has given up 36 sacks this season.  The Jets have been a great late-season bet as they are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 December games.  Take New York.

7* NFL Dog of the Year on Los Angeles Rams +13.5

The Key: The fact that the Los Angeles Rams got blown out by the Saints on the road last week has added value to this line.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after that blowout.  But they will show up Sunday to face a team the caliber of the Patriots.  And the Patriots just aren't the normal Patriots right now.  They are without Rob Gronkowski because of a season-ending injury, and Tom Brady missed a lot of practice this week with a knee injury.  The Patriots were lucky to win 22-17 over the Jets last week, and they lost their last home game to the Seahawks.  They aren't going to win this game by 2 touchdowns, so they shouldn't be 13.5-point favorites in their current state.  After all, the Patriots are just 11-25-1 ATS in their last 37 games as double-digit favorites.  And Jeff Fisher has been dominant in the underdog role.  Fisher is 14-3 ATS off a loss by 14 points or more as the coach of the Rams, and they're coming back to actually win these games 18.9 to 16.1 on average.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Okie State/Oklahoma Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma State +11

The Key: This is a much more evenly-matched game than this spread would indicate, and thus I find value on the double-digit underdog in this rivalry game with the Big 12 title at stake.  Oklahoma State is outscoring teams by 13.2 PPG this season and Oklahoma by 14.8 PPG.  The Sooners can't be trusted to cover this big number because they have their worst defense in years.  They allow 30.5 points, 443 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  Two of the three meetings between these teams between 2012 and 2014 went to overtime, and the other was decided by 9 points.  But the Cowboys will be out for revenge from their 58-23 loss to the Sooners last year.  That was closer than the score as the Sooners only outgained the Cowboys by 67 yards.  The Cowboys have actually played their best on the road this season as they won 44-20 at Kansas, 43-37 at Kansas State and 31-6 at TCU.  They were dogs in those latter two games.  The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for more than 200 yards in their previous game.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Oklahoma State.

7* NFL Situational Game of the Year on San Diego Chargers -2.5

The Key: The Houston Texans are playing on a short week after returning from Mexico City and their Monday Night Football game against the Oakland Raiders.  Now they'll be up against a San Diego Chargers team that is coming off their bye week and desperate for a win.  Given this awful spot for the Texans and great one for the Chargers, I think the road team gets the job done today.  The Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Texans.  Take San Diego.

7* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio State -5

The Key: This is a very cheap price for the Ohio State Buckeyes here.  They have the home-field edge and a big edge at quarterback with J.T. Barrett over John O'Korn.  The Buckeyes are beating teams by 42 points per game at home this season.  We saw Michigan lose on the road at Iowa and struggle beating Michigan State away from home.  We also saw O'Korn struggle against Indiana at home last week.  Ohio State has won 11 of its last 12 meetings with Michigan and there hasn't been an upset in this series in 11 years.  Urban Meyer is 8-0 ATS when favored by less than 10 points or an underdog in his last 8 games as a head coach.  Take Ohio State.

7* NCAAF Friday *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois -5

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies are playing very well here down the stretch at 4-3 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They have found their QB of the future in Daniel Santacaterina, who led them back from 21-0 down to beat Eastern Illinois last week.  He rushed for 91 yards in the second half alone after taking over for their injured starting QB.  Kent State is down to its 3rd-string QB now after losing 7-42 at Bowling Green last week.  That was an alarming loss and it's hard to tell what kind of effort you are going to get from the Golden Flashes this week.  The Huskies are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings winning seven of those by at least 7 points.  The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing home record.  Take Northern Illinois.

7* WAS/DAL NFC East Game of the Month on Washington Redskins +7

The Key: The Washington Redskins will be out for revenge from their 23-27 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys back in Week 2.  That was the start of a 9-game winning streak both straight up and ATS for the Cowboys.  They are getting way too much respect from the books now as the Redskins were 3-point favorites in that first game, and now they're 7-point dogs in the rematch, a whopping 10-point swing.  The Redskins continue flying under the radar as they've gone 6-1-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.  Statistically these teams are very similar as the Redskins outgain teams by 48 yards per game and 0.4 per play while the Cowboys outgain teams by 65 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.  The Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 trips to Dallas, so clearly the Cowboys don't have much of a home-field advantage in this series at all.  Take Washington.

7* CMU/EMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +1.5

The Key: Eastern Michigan is looking to get to its first bowl game since 1987.  The Eagles are 6-5 this season, but they may need another victory to secure their spot in the postseason.  And after blowing a 21-0 lead and losing to Northern Illinois last week, they will come back very hungry on Senior Night here against Central Michigan.  The Chippewas are also 6-5, but with their win over Oklahoma State earlier this season, they're probably going to a bowl either way.  They had lost 3 straight before winning 27-20 over Ohio last week, but Ohio pretty much gave that game away by committing four turnovers.  CMU was held to just 286 total yards in that game and outgained by 71 yards.  EMU is 6-0 ATS off one or more consecutive unders this season.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.  The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Arizona Cardinals +2.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals remain one of the best teams in the NFL.  Just look at the numbers they have put up this season.  They are 1st in the NFL in yardage differential as they average 382.0 yards per game on offense and only give up 295.2 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by 86.8 yards per game.  They face a Minnesota Vikings team that is 0-4 in its last 4 games overall with no signs of turning it around soon due to an offense that ranks as the worst in the NFL, averaging just 302.3 yards per game.  This is a mismatch on paper and it will be a mismatch on the field, too.  Take Arizona.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Stanford -10.5

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have won three straight games by double-digits, including a 24-point win at Arizona and a 25-point win at Oregon.  They should keep this streak going against the Cal Bears, who have lost three straight games by at least 21 points each while getting outscored by an average of 31.7 points per game.  Their defense has given up 662 yards per game during this stretch.  Stanford will have its way rushing the football in this game as the Golden Bears allow 283 yards per game on the ground, and frankly I don't know how they are going to ever stop Stanford from scoring.  The Cardinal have owned this series with 6 straight victories over Cal and 5 of those coming by 13 points or more.  The Cardinal are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when favored by 10.5 to 21 points.  Take Stanford.

7* UNLV/Boise NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV +28.5

The Key: The UNLV Rebels just beat Wyoming in Triple Overtime last Saturday.  That gives these teams a common opponent at Boise State actually lost to Wyoming 30-28.  And UNLV gained 653 yards against Wyoming and outgained them by 168 yards.  Boise State was actually outgained by 2 yards by Wyoming in that loss.  UNLV averages 253 rushing yards per game this season and will find success on the ground against Boise State.  After all, the Broncos have allowed 215 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games to Wyoming, San Jose State and Hawaii.  The Broncos haven't won by more than 14 points at home this season, and they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games at home dating back to last season.  Take UNLV.

7* NO/CAR Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina Panthers -3

The Key: The Carolina Panthers had won 3 straight meetings with New Orleans by an average of 13 points per game before losing 38-41 to them on the road earlier this season.  I think they get their revenge here Thursday night to hold on to slim hopes of making the playoffs.  This is the make-or-break game for the Panthers, who blew a 17-0 lead to the Chiefs last week and lost despite dominating that game.  Bets on favorites revenging a loss by 7 points or less while also coming off an upset loss as a favorite are 27-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Carolina.

7* Ohio/CMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan PK

The Key: The Central Michigan Chippewas need a win to get bowl eligible as they sit at 5-5 on the season.  They will be motivated here at home.  I question the motivation of the Ohio Bobcats, who can lose tonight and still win the MAC East with a home win over Akron next week.  The Bobcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the country up to this point and are extremely overrated.  Central Michigan went on the road and beat Oklahoma State.  Ohio is coming off 3 straight ATS covers, while CMU is coming off 3 straight ATS losses.  That has put the value squarely on the home team in this contest tonight.  Take Central Michigan.

7* MNF Game of the Year on Cincinnati Bengals PK

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off their bye week after tying the Washington Redskins in London.  They are now as healthy as they have been at any point this season.  Tyler Eiffert returned against the Redskins, and he and AJ Green both had over 100 yards receiving.  This Bengals' offense should thrive now with Eiffert back in the fold because they already have a strong running game.  The Giants cannot say the same as they average just 68 rushing yards per game.  The Giants have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games.  Their 3-game winning streak comes to an end tonight against the superior Bengals.  Cincinnati is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Take Cincinnati.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Green Bay Packers -2.5

The Key: The Packers are just .500 at this late in the season for the first time since Aaron Rodgers' rookie year.  Off two straight losses, it's clear that the Packers will be playing with a sense of urgency.  Tennessee's Nissan Stadium will be turned into Lambeau Field South today as the Titans just have no home-field advantage at all.  The only team they can beat at home is the Jaguars over the past couple seasons.  Oh yeah, they also beat the winless Browns 28-26 earlier this season at home.  The Titans are 12-36-3 ATS in their last 51 games overall and 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 home games.  Tennessee is 4-15 ATS in home games over the past 3 seasons alone, losing by an average of 8.1 points per game.  The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Green Bay.

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Wyoming -7.5

The Key: Wyoming is 5-0 in conference play with a win over Boise State to boot.  With wins in 2 of their final 3 games, the Cowboys will be going to the conference championship game.  But they still have tough games coming up at home against San Diego State and on the road at New Mexico.  They really need to win this game against UNLV if they want to reach their goals.  I look for them to continue playing well against the Rebels here.  UNLV has lost 3 of its last 4 with its only win coming against Hawaii, and I don't expect it to put up much of a fight here. That includes a 23-42 home loss to Colorado State, which is the same team Wyoming beat 38-17 on the road earlier this season.  UNLV is a one-dimensional running team that only completes 45.2% of its passes for 163 yards per game.  Wyoming has been great against the run, giving up just 139 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.  Bets on favorites on of 3.5 to 10 points after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 25-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Wyoming.

7* BC/FSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Boston College +20.5

The Key: The Florida State Seminoles have already suffered 3 losses this season and are merely playing for bowl positioning.  They're not concerned at all about this game against Boston College.  They were flat last week in their 24-20 win over NC State, and I don't see them putting forth a much better effort here.  Keep in mind that Boston College also beat NC State 21-14 on the road as 14-point dogs two weeks ago.  Speaking of 14, the Eagles haven't lost by more than 14 points to Florida State in any of the past 3 meetings.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last 3 seasons.  After failing to cover in a blowout loss to Louisville last week, the Eagles are undervalued here.  Take Boston College.

7* Browns/Ravens AFC North Game of the Month on Cleveland +8

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens can't be trusted to lay this kind of weight.  Not when they haven't blown anyone out over the past two seasons.  The Ravens haven't won a game by more than 8 points in any of their last 24 games.  They have been the kings of close games as 22 of those 24 games were decided by 8 points or fewer.  Plus, the Ravens are coming off a huge win over the rival Steelers on Sunday, so they could come out flat here against the Browns.  The Browns have at least been competitive in the majority of their games, and they will be again here tonight against the offensively-challenged Ravens.  The Ravens are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Baltimore.  Take Cleveland.

7* Bills/Seahawks MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo +6.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are 4-4 this season and catching too many points here against the Seattle Seahawks.  They have only lost one game by more than 6 points this season, and that was last week against the New England Patriots, who just cannot be stopped right now.  But the Bills get back LeSean McCoy this week and add in Percy Harvin.  Seattle is 4-2-1 this season, but two of its wins came by exactly 2 points at home against the Dolphins and Falcons.  The Seahawks are broken offensively.  They rank 29th in points per game (18.7) and 23rd in total offense.  Their defense is missing DE Martellus Bennett and S Kam Chancellor as well.  The Bills are averaging 29.3 points per game in their last 7 games since changing offensive coordinators.  Buffalo is 6-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses over the past 3 seasons, coming back to win by 14.6 points per game.  Take Buffalo.

7* NFC East Game of the Year on New York Giants -3

The Key: The New York Giants are showing great value as 3-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles today.  They should be much bigger favorites here.  They enter on a 2-game winning streak and are coming off their bye week to get healthy.  The Eagles have lost 3 of their last 4 and just aren't playing well right now.  They are also coming off an overtime game against the Cowboys, and it's going to be tough to bounce back from that against a Giants team off their bye.  The Giants are 2-1 at home this season and outgaining teams by 76 yards per game.  The Eagles are 1-3 on the road and getting outgained by 81 yards per game.  This is a very short price for the Giants at home given the situation.  Take New York.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Arkansas +4

The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks are fresh off their bye week.  They needed it after playing the likes of Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn in consecutive weeks.  Quarterback Austin Allen is now healthy and ready to lead his troops at home against 11th-ranked Florida.  The Gators may be the most overrated team in their country because their 6-1 start has come against a very easy schedule.  They best team they've played is Tennessee, and they lost 38-28 on the road.  They also barely beat Vanderbilt 13-6 in their other true road game.  The Razorbacks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games off a loss by 21 points or more.  The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover against the spread.  The wrong team is favored in this game.  Take Arkansas.

7* SJSU/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +30

The Key: The Boise State Broncos just had their dreams crushed of playing in the Cotton Bowl.  They lost 28-30 at Wyoming last week as 14.5-point underdogs.  I expect them to come out flat tonight against the San Jose Spartans, which is going to make it extremely difficult to cover this 30-point spread.  The Broncos have been one of the worst bets in college football, yet they still keep getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers.   They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They only won by 1 at home over BYU, by 5 at home over Colorado State, by 11 at home over Utah State and by 3 at home over Washington State in their four home games, where they've gone 0-4 ATS.  The Spartans come in with confidence after winning 2 of their last 3 games while not committing a single turnover in that stretch, which has made the biggest difference.  The Broncos are 0-7 ATS vs. teams who give up 8 or more yards per pass attempt over the last 3 seasons.  They are only beating these teams by 4.8 points per game.  Take San Jose State.

7* ATL/TB Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play this season, which is the best mark in the entire NFL.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play on the year, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL.  I think this is an absolute mismatch, especially with the Bucs' top 3 running backs out due to injury.  The Oakland Raiders put up 626 yards of offense on the Bucs last week.  The Bucs' defense was on the field for a long time in the OT loss, which works against them on this short week.  The Falcons have the league's top scoring offense and total offense and should shred the Bucs just as the Raiders did.  Tampa Bay is 18-43-1 ATS in its last 62 home games, and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS at home this season.  Take Atlanta.

7* NFL Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Key: The Carolina Panthers are coming off their bye week and are in must-win mode now.  They are just 1-5 on the season, though I still believe they are one of the best teams in the NFL, and that will show on Sunday.  The Arizona Cardinals are coming off an overtime tie against the Seahawks and are clearly not in the best shape right now mentally and physically after that contest.  The Panthers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games following a road game.  Cam Newton is 7-1 ATS in his last 8 home starts.  The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 9 points or fewer in their previous game.  Take Carolina.

7* Miami/ND Non-Conference Game of the Month on Notre Dame +1.5

The Key: This is the start of a new season for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  They have started 2-5 this year and will have to get four wins in their last five games to make a bowl.  There's no question this team is shooting for that target, and the next four games are all winnable against Miami, Navy, Army and Virginia Tech.  Now they've had a bye week to catch their breath and should play one of their best games of the season this week.  It's worth noting that all five of Notre Dame's losses have come by 8 points or less, so they are better than their record.  Maimi has been overmatched in three straight losses to FSU, UNC and VA Tech.  They have been outgained in 4 straight games, while Notre Dame has actually outgained 4 of 7 opponents this season.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who pass for 250 or more yards per game over the last 2 seasons.  They are losing by 17.2 points per game on average.  Take Notre Dame.

7* Jags/Titans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville +3.5

The Key: Both of the Jaguars' wins this season have come on the road.  One was against the Colts in London in a game they dominated.  That's the same Colts team that just beat the Titans 34-26 in Tennessee last week.  The Titans are awful at home as they are 1-3 with their only win coming by 2 points over the Browns.  They are 2-9 ATS at home over the past 2 seasons and 14-34-3 ATS in their last 51 home games.  The Titans are also 1-12 ATS in their last 13 division games.  The Jags give up just 4.9 yards per play on defense while the Titans allow 5.9 yards per play.  I'll back the better defense here catching 3.5 points.  Take Jacksonville.

7* NFL Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1

The Key: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are primed for a big performance Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.  They are coming off their bye week following a 17-14 win at Carolina that could have turned their season around.  Now they get to face the lowly 49ers, who have just kept getting crushed week after week.  The 49ers are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, losing all five games by at least 7 points, and losing four times by at least 12 points.  Their defense just gave up 491 total yards, including 312 rushing, in a 16-45 loss at Buffalo last week.  San Francisco is 0-6 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game over the past 3 seasons.  It is losing by 12.3 points per game on average.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on TCU +6.5

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs are fresh off their bye after an uninspiring 24-23 win at Kansas two weeks ago.  Gary Patterson has gotten the attention of his players, and I look for the Horned Frogs to put forth their best effort of the season Saturday.  Patterson is the king of using the bye week to his advantage.  His teams are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 off regular season bye weeks.  It's time to sell high on the West Virginia Mountaineers, who are 5-0 but struggled to put away both BYU and Kansas State, beating those two teams by a combined 4 points.  TCU will be the best opponent that WVU has faced this season.  The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take TCU.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +23

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans have played much better in Mountain West play.  They lost by a touchdown to New Mexico, beat Nevada and lost to Hawaii as a favorite.  San Diego State lost at South Alabama by 18 a few weeks ago, ruining their perfect season.  They came back with flat efforts in a 26-7 win over UNLV and a 17-3 win over Fresno State the past two weeks.  The Aztecs have an elite defense, but their offense simply isn't good enough to lay big numbers like this 23-point spread.  They have no passing game, and Donnel Pumphrey may be wearing down.  He has 167 carries already, including 69 in the past two games.  San Diego State is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in its previous game.  Take San Jose State.

7* Bears/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +7.5

The Key: There's no way the Packers should be this big of favorites when you consider the injuries they are dealing with right now.  They will be without their top 3 cornerbacks, and Eddy Lacy and James Starks are both expected to miss this game.  It's no wonder they lost to the Cowboys by 14 points Sunday with all the guys they were missing.  And the Packers haven't beaten anyone by more than 7 points this season.  The Bears are better than their 1-5 record as they are outgaining teams by 34 yards per game and have outgained their last 3 opponents by 343 combined yards.  Brian Hoyer has thrown for at least 300 yards in 4 straight games.  He will have a big day against this beat-up Packers' secondary, and the Bears will have a great shot to pull off the upset because of it.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, including a 17-13 outright win as 7.5-point road dogs by the Bears last season.  Take Chicago.

7* Jets/Cardinals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -7

The Key: The New York Jets are a mess right now.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games while getting outscored a combined 33-82 in the process.  The Arizona Cardinals are just 2-3, but they are clearly better than their record.  The Cardinals are outgaining teams by 55 yards per game and outscoring them by nearly 5 points per game.  The Jets are getting outgained by 19 yards per game and getting outscored by nearly 9 points per game.  New Yoprk has all kinds of injury problems too.  LB David Harris is doubtful, WR Eric Decker is out, and CB Darrelle Revis, C Nick Mangold and DE Sheldon Richardson are all questionable.  Carson Palmer makes his return from a concussion tonight, and the Cardinals are extra rested after playing last Thursday.  Without Decker, Arizona can put Patrick Peterson on Brandon Marshall, and the Jets are really going to have a hard time moving the football tonight.  Bets against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 43-17 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Cardinals are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Arizona.

7* Cowboys/Packers NFC Game of the Month on Green Bay -5

The Key: The Packers are outscoring opponents by nearly 14 points per game in the 1st half of their last 17 home games.  They still have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Dallas Cowboys will get a reality check today.  Dak Prescott is going to have to do more than he's used to today, as he has thrown just 5% of his passes more than 20 yards down field.  He's doing the dink and dunk thing well, but he'll be forced to play from behind in this game.  The Packers will stop the run as they rank 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up only 43 yards per game and 2 yards per carry.  That will be the difference.  Take Green Bay.

7* NCAAF Situational Game of the Year on Virginia +4

The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers have gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  Yet, they still get no love from oddsmakers here.  They are coming off their two best games of the season with a 49-35 home win over Central Michigan as 5-point dogs and a 34-20 road win at Duke as 3-point dogs.  They had a bye last week, so they'll be fresh and ready to go at home against Pitt this week.  Pitt is dead tired right now after playing 6 straight weeks to open the season, and 4 of its last 5 games were decided by 7 points or less.  I believe the Panthers will run out of gas this week, especially after having to face Georgia Tech's triple-option last week.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.  Take Virginia.

7* DEN/SD Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego +3

The Key: The San Diego Chargers are the most underrated team in the NFL right now.  They have held a lead for more minutes than any other team in the league this season.  However, they are 1-4 with their four losses all coming by 4 points or less.  But now the Chargers' season is on the line here against the Broncos.  They can't afford to fall behind any further in the AFC West standings if they are going to make a run.  So with their backs against the wall here at home, I'll back them as 3-point home dogs.  The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a division loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC West foes.  Take San Diego.

7* NFC Game of the Week on Detroit Lions +3.5

The Key: No analysis Sunday

7* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on East Carolina +16

The Key: The East Carolina Pirates have been impressive this season.  The beat NC State 33-30 at home, lost at South Carolina 15-20 while outgaining the Gamecocks by 207 yards, lost 17-54 at VA Tech and was only outgained by 19 yards, and lost to UCF 29-47 despite outgaining the Knights by 148 yards.  Their stats have been tremendous considering the competition faced.  They are averaging 523 yards on offense and giving up 393 on defense, outgaining teams by 130 yards per game.  Now they catch South Florida in a letdown spot off a big road win at Cincinnati last week.  The Bulls are simply getting to much respect from oddsmakers here.  The Pirates are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Bulls are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team has won both meetings the last 2 years and 4 of the last 6 outright despite being underdogs for the majority of the meetings.  Take East Carolina.

7* Clemson/BC ESPN Friday Night Lights on Boston College +17

The Key: Boston College has the best defense in the country this season, giving up just 202 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play.  That stop unit will keep the Eagles competitive here against Clemson, which is in a massive letdown spot after the win over Louisville on Saturday.  I like Eagles QB Patrick Towles, who has thrown for 806 yards with a 6-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  I think he can make enough plays to keep the Eagles within striking distance.  Boston College is 3-0 ATS in the last 3 meetings and hasn't lost by more than 17 to Clemson in any of the last 4 meetings.  The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Boston College.

7* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -3.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have committed 5 turnovers each in their last 2 games to give away games against the Bills and Rams.  Look for them to shore that up and get a big win here on Thursday night against the lowly San Francisco 49ers.  The Cardinals aren't broken as they rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential at plus-68.5 yards per game.  The 49ers are 1-3 as well, but they are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They rank 31st in yardage differential at negative-97.2 yards per game.  They just lost NaVorro Bowman to a season-ending injury, and their defense was already terrible in allowing 390 yards per game on the season.  Drew Stanton, even though he's a backup, should light up this 49ers defense.  And look for Bruce Arians to get stud RB David Johnson going, especially with run-stopper Bowman out.  The 49ers give up 140 rushing yards per game this season.  San Francisco is 1-11 ATS in games with a total of 35.5 to 42 points over the last 3 seasons.  The Cardinals swept the season series last year in winning by a combined 66-20 score over the 49ers.  Take Arizona.

7* Giants/Vikings NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +4

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings aren't as good as their 3-0 record would suggest.  They are getting outgained by 29.7 yards per game on the season, and their offense is still terrible.  Their defense is the reason they are 3-0 as they have gotten several non-offensive touchdowns already.  The Giants probably should be the team that is 3-0 instead of 2-1.  They are outgaining teams by 57 yards per game.  Each of the Giants' first three games have been decided by 3 points or less.  This one is likely to go down to the wire as well, so the 4 points could come into play.  The Vikings aren't going to keep forcing turnovers at this rate as they are +8 in that department.  The Giants aren't going to keep losing the turnover battle as they are -6 in turnovers this season.  The Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  Take New York.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Washington State +2.5

The Key: The Washington Cougars won nine games last year and contended for a Pac-12 title.  They brought back a ton of talent from that team, including QB Luke Faulk and 8 starters on offense.  So the 1-2 start is shocking, but it also has the Cougars flying under the radar.  They lost their two games by a combined 6 points, including a 3-point loss at Boise State in a game they arguably outplayed the Broncos.  They gained 520 yards against Boise State and held them to 420 yards.  Oregon is 2-2 and has one of its worst teams in years, yet it is a favorite here.  The Ducks have given up at least 26 points in every game and will have their hands full with Faulk.  Oregon does have another good offense that loves to run the ball, but Washington State counters that with a defense that is giving up only 103 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  WSU is coming off a bye week, and that's a nice advantage here to prepare for the Ducks, who they are 1-1 against the last two years in games that were both decided by a TD.  Betting against teams who outscore opponents by 7 or more points per game who have allowed 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 27-3 ATS over the last 5 years.  We'll bet against the Ducks here, who fit that criteria.  Take Washington State.

7* Stanford/Washington ESPN Friday Night Lights on Washington -3

The Key: The Washington Huskies are ready to change the landscape of the Pac-12, which has gone through Stanford over the past few years.  And with one of the best home-field advantages in the country inside Husky Stadium for this Top 10 showdown, you can bet they are going to be feeding off of the energy.  But the bottom line is that the Huskies are actually the more talented team in this matchup.  They have the better defense, and certainly the more explosive offense as Stanford has been held back by its shaky QB play this season.  The Cardinal were lucky to beat UCLA last week on the road, but they won't be so fortunate this time around.  Take Washington.

7* Dolphins/Bengals AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +8

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are getting way too much respect from the books as 8-point favorites here over the Miami Dolphins.  I think this game will go right down to the wire, so this is a really nice price for the Dolphins.  We've already seen the Dolphins go on the road and nearly beat both the Seahawks (lost by 2) and Patriots (lost by 7).  They can certainly stay within a touchdown of these Bengals, who have not fared well in losses to the Steelers and Broncos the past two weeks.  The Dolphins are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Cincinnati.  Take Miami.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Tennessee Titans +1.5

The Key: The Tennessee Titans could be 2-0 right now.  They lost to the Vikings in Week 1 only after blowing a 10-0 lead and giving up two defensive touchdowns in the second half.  They came back with a solid win at Detroit last week.  The NFL is about defense, and the Titans clearly have the better one here.  Their defense has technically only allowed 23 points all season.  Meanwhile, the Raiders have given up 35 points and 517 total yards per game.  This is an early kick out East for the Raiders, which is a tough spot for a West Coast team.  Take Tennessee.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Baylor -7.5

The Key: Everyone is down on Baylor because they haven't played anyone.  But they've taken care of business like they're supposed to with all three of their wins coming by 27 points or more.  The fact that they're 0-3 ATS gives us some line value here.  Last year, Baylor beat Oklahoma State 45-35 on the road while racking up 700 yards of total offense and outgaining the Cowboys by 259 yards.  Now they get the Cowboys at home, where they are 17-3 in their last 20 Big 12 home games.  I'm not impressed with Oklahoma State with a loss to Central Michigan and a fortunate win against Pitt, both of which came at home.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.  Take Baylor.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -2.5

The Key: The Utah Utes are 8-1 at home dating back to last season.  Their stadium, Rice-Eccles, is one of the most underrated venues in all of college football.  The Ute faithful will be out in full force tonight in Salt Lake City with the USC Trojans coming to town.  The Trojans couldn't have looked worse to this point, and now they are starting a freshman QB in Sam Darnold.  Darnold will be up against a Utah team that had 10 sacks last week and boasts one of the best defenses in the nation.  Look for the Utes to play a clean game here offensively, while the Trojans and Darnold make mistakes that will be the difference in this game.  The Trojans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Take Utah.

7* Texans/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +1

The Key: The injuries the Patriots are dealing with right now puts them at an extreme disadvantage.  I don't trust rookie Jacoby Brissett to be able to do much offensively as he has only 2.5 days to prepare for this game.  Plus, he'll be up against one of the best defenses in the NFL this week in the Texans.  I'll side with that defense and Brock Osweiler and company to come away with a win here.  Bill O'Brien will have his team focused because he knows what the Patriots are capable of with their backs against the wall, as he previously coached there.  Take Houston.

7* Eagles/Bears MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3

The Key: The Chicago Bears need a win to avoid starting 0-2.  They held their own against the Texans last week, but couldn't hold on to a 14-10 halftime lead as they lost 23-14.  Look for them to be hungry here at home on a big stage on Monday Night Football.  The Eagles are getting too much respect now after beating the Cleveland Browns 29-10 in their opener.  They looked good, but this will be a different challenge for rookie QB Carson Wentz in his first start in an NFL road game.  I don't expect him to handle it very well.  The Eagles are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games in September.  Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 Week 2 games.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in in their last 4 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Take Chicago.

7* AFC North Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The Key: This is one of the most heated rivalries in sports between the Steelers and Bengals.  I'll gladly side with the home team only laying a field goal.  The Steelers dominated the Redskins 38-16 on the road, while the Bengals squeaked by the Jets 23-22 and were very fortunate to win.  The Steelers clearly have plenty of depth to make up for the loss of some key players, while the Bengals do not.  The Bengals are without their best defensive player in Vontaze Burfict, and they are without their TD leader from a year ago in TE Tyler Eifert, who scored 13 touchdowns for them.  The Steelers won their final two meetings of the season with the Bengals last year, both on the road and one in the playoffs.  They have now won 5 of the last 6 meetings with their only loss coming 16-10 in a game where the Steelers outgained the Bengals 356-296 and should have won, but Ben Roethlisberger threw 3 interceptions and was playing injured.  The Steelers are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Alabama/Ole Miss SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -11

The Key: Alabama wants revenge from two straight losses to Ole Miss the past 2 seasons.  The Crimson Tide have been dominant in beating USC 52-6 and Western Kentucky 38-10, but they really want this game.  Ole Miss has been shaky with an 11-point loss to Florida State and only a 38-13 win over Wofford in which they allowed over 200 rushing yards.  Alabama gave away the game to Ole Miss last year by committing 5 turnovers.  Look for a more disciplined performance here.  Alabama is 4-0 in true road games against ranked teams since that loss to Ole Miss in 2014.  It has won these games by an average of 22 points per game.  Expect another blowout here.  Take Alabama.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State -9

The Key: Utah State has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  The Aggies have gone 24-3 in their last 27 home games.  They are also 11-4 under Matt Wells coming off a loss.  That's key because they played USC and lost 7-45 last week on the road in a game that was closer than the final.  The Aggies were only outgained by 169 yards in that game.  Compare that to Arkansas State, which was outgained by 290 yards in a 10-31 home loss to Toledo and by 380 yards in a 14-51 road loss at Auburn, and it's easy to see Utah State is the better team.  The Aggies should roll here by double-digits.  Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent that closed out last season with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 38-12 ATS since 1992.  Take Utah State.

7* Jets/Bills AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +1

The Key: Injuries to the Bills have them way less than full strength right now.  They had key rookies in DE Shaq Lawson and LB Reggie Ragland who are out and were expected to play significant roles this season.  They are also without LB Ik Enempkpali, starting LT Cordy Glenn and their best DT in Marcell Dareus.  Not to mention, Sammy Watkins is far from 100%.  I just believe the Jets are primed to win this game today not only because of all the injuries, but because they want revenge from losing 5 straight to the Bills last year, including a loss in Week 17 that kept them out of the playoffs.  Take New York.

7* Rams/49ers Monday Night *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -3

The Key: This will finally be the year the Los Angeles Rams make a playoff push.  They have been stockpiling talent for the last few years, and they now actually have some of the best young talent in the NFL.  Look for it to come to fruition in 2016, starting with Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers, who will battle with the Cleveland Browns for worst team in the NFL honors.  The Rams' only potential weakness is at QB, but Case Keenum is a batter QB than Blaine Gabbert, and the 49ers have holes everywhere on both side of the ball due to poor management.  Only having to lay a field goal with the vastly superior team tonight is a nice discount.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NFL Game of the Week on New York Jets +1

The Key: Home-field advantage has been huge between the Bengals and Jets.  The home team is 7-1 SU in the last 8 meetings and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  The Jets have won 6 straight home meetings with the Bengals as well. They should not be underdogs Sunday.  Take New York.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on SMU +32.5

The Key: SMU is a team on the rise in the second year under Chad Morris.  They put up 27.8 points per game last year after only averaging 11.1 in 2014.  Morris has a great offensive mind and the Mustangs will have the firepower to stay within 32 points of Baylor today.  Just last year the Mustangs only trailed the Bears 21-28 at half before getting blown out in the second half.  The Mustangs gained 572 yards in a 34-21 win at North Texas last week, outgaining the Mean Green by 178 yards.  Bets on dogs of 31.5 or more points after outgaining their last opponent by 175 yards or more are 26-6 ATS since 1992.  Take SMU.

7* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Syracuse +15

The Key: I like the direction Dino Babers has the Syracuse Orange headed.  In his first game they beat Colgate 33-7 at home and got their offense going with 554 yards.  Babers inherited 16 returning starters and more talent than most coaches could expect in their 1st year with a new team.  The Carrier Dome is no joke.  Syracuse is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The Orange went 3-3 at home last year with a 10-point loss to LSU as 24-point dogs, a 3-point loss to Pitt as 9-point dogs, and a 10-point loss to Clemson as 30-point dogs.  If they could hang with those 3 teams at home, they certainly can hang with Louisville.  Take Syracuse.

7* CAR/DEN NFL Thursday *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver Broncos +3

The Key: The defending Super Bowl champ is 14-2 SU in Week 1 over the past 16 seasons.  The Super Bowl loser from the previous year is only 5-11 SU & 3-12-1 ATS over the past 16 seasons as well.  I feel that the price is right to back the Broncos as home underdogs here Thursday night.  Carolina is not 6 points better on a neutral field, which is what this line would indicate.  The Broncos didn't lose a whole lot from last year, and it's not like Peyton Manning did much for this team.  They still have the best defense in the NFL and a solid running game, along with 2 elite receivers on the outside.  I think they have enough to win tonight and will be inspired, just almost all of the previous year's Super Bowl winners have been.  Take Denver.

7* Ole Miss/FSU ESPN Monday *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State -6

The Key: Florida State has 17 starters back this season and is a legit national title contender.  Ole Miss only has 10 starters back this year and is primed for a down year after winning 10 games last year with Hugh Freeze's best team yet.  But Freeze has lost a lot of talent to the NFL and this is probably a rebuilding year.  Look for Florida State to roll in their opener, especially with home-field advantage with this game being played in their home state of Florida.  Take Florida State.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Texas A&M -3

The Key: Kevin Sumlin has a loaded roster in 2016 with 13 starters back and the additions of Oklahoma transfers in QB Trevor Knight and RB Keith Ford.  The defense is one of the best in the SEC with 7 of the top 8 tacklers back from a unit that gave up 22.0 points per game last year.  The offense can only be improved with better QB play from Knight and his set of receivers that are as talented as anyone in the country.  UCLA has all kinds of questions surrounding the offense around QB Josh Rosen with only 4 starters back.  The Aggies have gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 September games and are 26-2 in their last 28 home openers.  Take Texas A&M.

7* Kansas State/Stanford NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Stanford -12

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal are on another level than the Kansas State Wildcats.  The Cardinal are among the favorites to win the Pac-12 and to make the four-team playoff.  It's easy to see why considering they have Christian McCaffrey back and are dominant up front along the offensive and defensive lines.  I think that dominance up front will be the key in them making easy work of the Wildcats, who went just 7-6 last season and barely made a bowl game.  Kansas State lost to the two best teams it played last year badly with a 55-0 loss to Oklahoma and a 45-23 loss to Arkansas.  Stanford beat Iowa by 29 in the Rose Bowl, and a blowout can be expected here.  The Cardinal are 8-0 ATS as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 range over the last 3 years.  Take Stanford.

7* South Carolina/Vanderbilt SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Vanderbilt -4

The Key: Vanderbilt is in much better shape entering 2016 than South Carolina.  The Commodores have a 3rd-year head coach in Derek Mason, who brings back 15 starters this year.  He has 7 starters back on a defense that only gave up 21.0 points per game last year.  South Carolina is a rebuilding team under 1st-year head coach Will Muschamp.  The Gamecocks have the least amount of experience returning in the SEC and only 9 starters back.  This is a team that went 3-9 overall and 0-5 on the road last year.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Vanderbilt.

7* Broncos/Panthers Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +6

The Key: The betting public and all of the money has been pouring in on the Carolina Panthers over the past two weeks.  This line opened at -3.5 at most books and has been driven up to +6 in some places.  There's no question that the Panthers are overvalued coming in as my numbers indicate that they should only be 3-point favorites on a neutral field over the Broncos.  That means we are getting 3 points of value here with the Broncos.  I'll gladly support Denver given it has the best defense in the NFL and one that will slow down this Carolina offense.  Oddsmakers are expecting a pretty low-scoring game here, too, and so am I, which favors getting 6 points with the dog in what is likely to be a close game from start to finish.  Denver is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on 2 or more weeks of rest.  Take Denver.

7* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Cardinals +3

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in the NFL, period.  They should not be underdogs to the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship in a game that I fully expect them to win outright.  For starters, the Cardinals are 7-1 on the road this season, outscoring teams by a whopping 14.0 points per game.  They actually play better on the road because they use a silent count offensively.  The Cardinals are 1st in the NFL in total offense and 5th in total defense.  They are 2nd in passing offense at 289 yards per game.  Their passing attack will be the difference in this one because Carolina does not defend the pass well.  The Panthers have a make-shift secondary now with all of the injuries they have suffered, and they have two of the worst safeties in the NFL.  Carson Palmer and company will take advantage of a Carolina defense that has allowed 310 passing yards per game in its last 3 contests.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games coming in.  Take Arizona.

7* Packers/Cardinals NFC Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay +7

The Key: It's so tough to beat a team like the Packers twice in the same season.  That's what the Cardinals are tasked with doing in the NFC Divisional Round.  They just crushed the Packers 38-8 in Week 16, but I think that result has them laying too many points here in the rematch.  The Packers figured something out against the Redskins that worked, which was the hurry-up offense.  It led to a 35-7 run by the Packers to close out that game, and I think it's going to work against the Cardinals as well.  The Packers are healthier along the offensive line now than they were when they played the Cardinals three weeks ago.  Aaron Rodgers was under duress all game, but he won't be now with improved O-line play and the help of the hurry-up offense.  The Cardinals are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, and they're only outscoring opponents by 2.0 points per game on average in those six contests.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games.  Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Green Bay.

7* Alabama/Clemson NCAAF Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Clemson +7

The Key: The Clemson Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country and have been for most of the season.  Yet they are underdogs in both of their playoff games.  They made a statement with their 37-17 blowout of Oklahoma, and now they'll make another statement now that they've been listed as 7-point dogs to the Crimson Tide.  These players are fully aware that they are underdogs and used that as motivation against Oklahoma, and they'll do so again here.  Clemson is outgaining teams by 209.7 yards per game this season, which is the top mark in the country, and shows that it is the best team as well.  Alabama is outgaining teams by 167.1 yards per game, which is impressive, but still a far cry from Clemson.  Deshaun Watson is going to be the difference as he has rushed for 100-plus yards in three straight games coming in.  The Crimson Tide have not done well against dual-threat quarterbacks in the past, and they'll struggle to contain Watson here.  The Tigers have won each of their last four bowl games outright as underdogs, and they're 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  Take Clemson.

7* Packers/Redskins NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +1

The Key: The Washington Redskins won one of the worst divisions in football in the NFC East.  They played 14 teams that didn't make the playoffs and only 2 teams that did, and they were blown out by 28 points by Carolina and by 17 points by New England in those two contests.  The Packers played 7 playoff teams this season to compare, yet still managed to win 10 games.  Yes, they have lost their last 2 games coming in, but that is why they are showing good value here as underdogs to the Redskins.  They are the better team, and they will prove that on the field Sunday.  The Redskins have actually been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games and rank 23rd in yardage differential (-26.8 yards/game) on the season.  The Packers are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings with the Redskins, outscoring them by 15.0 points per game.  Take Green Bay.

7* Chiefs/Texans Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City -3

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs have won a franchise-record 10 consecutive games and are ready to end a 22-year streak without a playoff victory.  They have done so behind a defense that is giving up just 12.8 points per game during this winning streak.  They have also had a plus-16 turnover differential during it.  Considering they play the Texans, a team that has only beaten one playoff team all season, I like their chances of end this playoff drought.  When the Chiefs have gone under the total in two straight games coming in, they have gone 8-0 ATS and are winning these games by 16.4 points per game.  Take Kansas City.

7* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Bucs +10.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs want to end their season on a high note with an upset win over division rival Carolina.  This team has been great under Jameis Winston in his first year, but the record unfortunately hasn't reflected that.  The numbers say that the Bucs are one of the better teams in the NFL, and I trust the numbers here.  The Panthers have gone 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games overall and are once again laying too many points to their opponent this week.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Penn State/Georgia TaxSlayer Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Penn State +6.5

The Key: James Franklin is a proven winner in bowl games.  He has gone 3-0 straight up in bowl games dating back to his time at Vanderbilt.  He will certainly have his players ready to go after the Nittany Lions lost their final three games to close out the regular season.  I believe that finish has them undervalued heading into this TaxSlayer Bowl against Georgia.  The Bulldogs won each of their last 4 games to close out the season, which has them overvalued.  But they only beat Auburn by 7, Georgia Southern in overtime, and Georgia Tech by 6.  This Penn State team can play with Georgia in its current state.  The Bulldogs have a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator for this bowl game.  They will be at a severe coaching disadvantage as a result, and the Nittany Lions will simply want this game more.  Dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games who win 51% to 60% of their games on the season are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Penn State.

7* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +6

The Key: This is like a normal Big Ten game for the Hawkeyes.  The Stanford Cardinal play a physical brand of football, and the Hawkeyes match up well with physical teams that like to run the ball.  Kirk Ferentz 33-11 ATS versus teams who average at least 200 rushing yards per game in his career at Iowa.  The Hawkeyes defend the run very well this year as they give up 115 yards per game and 3.4 per carry.  The Hawkeyes also like to the run the ball themselves as they average 192 yards per game on the ground.  I think they'll find some holes against this Stanford defense that gives up 4.6 yards per carry.  Plus, starting RB Jordan Canzeri is healthy for this game after getting hurt in the loss to Michigan State, which is an added bonus.  Take Iowa.

7* Oklahoma/Clemson Orange Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma -3.5

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners went 7-0 over their final seven games with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  The only exception was a 1-point win over TCU, but they were leading that game by 17 entering the fourth quarter.  They beat Oklahoma State by 35 on the road in their finale and are playing much better than Clemson coming in.  The Tigers have gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall with narrow wins over UNC, South Carolina, Syracuse and Florida State all by 10 points or less.  The Tigers got some bad news when deep threat Deon Cain was suspended for this game this week and sent home.  Cain is second on the team in receiving with 582 yards, five touchdowns and 17.1 yards per receptions.  That is a big loss.  The Sooners are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a win by 21 points or more.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Wisconsin/USC Holiday Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -3.5

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers went 9-3 this year, but they did not beat a team that finished with a winning record.  They played about as easy a schedule as you can have, and they lost to the three best teams they played in Alabama, Iowa and Northwestern.  They played the 70th most difficult schedule this year.  To compare, USC took on the 3rd most difficult schedule.  I just think this USC team is going to overwhelm the Badgers athletically.  The Trojans have a much more explosive offense, and their defense is good enough to limit a lackluster Wisconsin offense that only averages 3.8 yards per carry.  The Trojans lost in the Pac-12 Championship to Stanford.  That sets them up for a good situation here.  The Trojans are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  Take USC.

7* Baylor/UNC Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on North Carolina -2

The Key: Baylor doesn't even want to be playing in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  The Bears had higher hopes coming into the season, but after losses in their final two games to TCU and Texas, they were left out of the four-team playoff.  Injuries to this team have really hurt their cause.  They will be without the best receiver in the country in Corey Coleman and one of the best running backs in the Big 12 in Shock Linwood.  They are also playing a 3rd-string quarterback.  I just see no way they'll be able to hang with this improved UNC squad whose only losses have come by a TD or less to Clemson and South Carolina.  Baylor has committed at least 3 turnovers in three straight games, and it is 2-14 ATS in its next game after committing at least 3 turnovers in 3 straight.  Take North Carolina.

7* Bengals/Broncos MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -4

The Key: The Denver Broncos rank 1st in total defense, 1st in rushing defense and 1st in passing defense.  This is simply the most dominant defense I've seen in a long time.  It will be the difference in why the Broncos win this game.  AJ McCarron will be making just his second start, and after an uninspiring effort against a bad 49ers defense last week, he will be awful against the league's top defense this week in the Broncos.  Brock Osweiler has played well this season and is the better quarterback here on an offense that has more potential than the Bengals.  I think he'll make enough plays and not turn the ball over, which will be enough for the Broncos to win this game by 4-plus points.  Bets on favorites off a road loss who are winning between 60% and 75% of their games in the second half of the season are 33-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Broncos are 8-0 ATS the game after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.  Take Denver.

7* Packers/Cardinals NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +5.5

The Key: The Green Bay Packers are playing up to their potential again.  They have won three straight and Mike McCarthy just took over the play-calling two weeks ago.  They put up 435 yards and 28 points against the Cowboys and 30 points against the Raiders in their last two contests with McCarthy making the decisions.  He is a master with the screen game, and those screen plays are going to be huge against this aggressive Cardinals defense that is vulnerable.  We saw it two weeks ago against the Vikings, who nearly took them to OT in Arizona.  They utilized the screen game and their tight ends to perfection.  Green Bay's defense is playing well enough to slow down the Cardinals.  The Packers are giving up just 16.3 points per game over their last 6 contests.  Arizona is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  This one should go right down to the wire, so this +5.5 spread is giving us plenty of value on the Packers.  Take Green Bay.

7* Chargers/Raiders TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego +5

The Key: The Oakland Raiders have no business being this heavily favored against anyone.  Especially not against a division rival like the Chargers, who have pretty much owned them in the past.  The Chargers have outgained the Raiders in 5 straight meetings.  The only reason the Raiders beat them in the first meeting this year is because they were coming off their bye, while the Chargers were in a hangover spot off their tough loss to the Packers the previous week.  The Chargers are allowing just 13.7 points and 284 yards per game in their last 3 contests.  They are 4th in the NFL in passing offense at 294 yards per game and should have plenty of success through the air against a Raiders defense that ranks 28th against the pass.  The underdog is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take San Diego.

7* Toledo/Temple Bowl Game of the Week on Temple -2.5

The Key: Temple's Matt Rhule has taken this Owls team from 2-10 to 6-6 to 10-3 in his three seasons here.  He was a hot head coaching candidate for other schools, but he chose to stay here at Temple and signed a new 6-year contract after the season.  The Owls were snubbed from a bowl game last year, so they are certainly hungry to be playing in the postseason for the first time since 2011.  Matt Campbell did not stay at Toledo.  He haded for green pastures at Iowa State, and now the Rockets will have an interim coach.  I don't trust them any more without Campbell.  Besides, the Owls are the better team with a better defense that played a much tougher schedule than the Rockets.  Toledo did beat Iowa State in overtime and Arkansas by 4 this season, but it could not have gotten any luckier in doing so as it was outgained by nearly 400 yards combined by those two teams.  Toledo is 0-7 ATS after allowing at least 6.25 yards per play in its previous game over the last 3 years.  Take Temple.

7* Lions/Saints MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -2.5

The Key: The Detroit Lions were shell-shocked when they blew their game against the Packers two weeks ago and lost on a hail mary to end their 3-game winning streak.  That loss essentially eliminated them from playoff contention, and they proceeded to lay an egg against St. Louis on the road last week to fall to 4-9.  I don't expect them to show up tonight, either.  The Saints have proven that they're not going to quit.  Even after a disheartening 38-41 home loss to the Panthers in Week 13, the Saints came back in Week 14 and won outright as 6-point road dogs 24-17 at Tampa Bay.  They will show up tonight, especially in front of their home fans on the MNF stage.  The Saints have owned the Lions in the last five meetings, winning four of them.  They have averaged 37.2 points and 503.8 yards per game in those five meetings.  The Saints have won by 17, 14 and 18 points in their last three home meetings with the Lions.  Take New Orleans.

7* Jets/Cowboys Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York -3

The Key: The Jets have everything to play for right now.  They are in a 3-way tie with Pittsburgh and Kansas City for the final 2 wild card spots in the AFC.  One of those three teams is going to get left out, and the Jets don't want it to be them.  With 3 straight wins over the Dolphins, Giants & Titans by a combined 43 points, they certainly are doing their part.  The Cowboys have nothing to play for right now at 4-9.  Their loss to the Packers last week, coupled with wins by the Eagles, Giants & Redskins, dropped the Cowboys to 2 games out of first place in the NFC East and done for.  The motivational advantage for the Jets, plus the fact that they are far and away the superior team here, makes this a very generous line of -3.  The Cowboys are 1-5 at home this season, losing by 10.0 points per game.  Dallas is 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  Take New York.

7* Bucs/Rams TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The oddsmakers have the wrong team favored in this one.  The Rams have no business being favored when they have lost five of their last six games with the majority of them coming via blowout.  They have been outgained by 129.2 yards per game in their last 5 games, and they are getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game on the season.  The Bucs have outgained 9 of their last 11 opponents and are outgaining teams by 22.7 yards per game on the year.  The Bucs are simply the better team here.  They are 5-1 following a loss this season, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Giants/Dolphins MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +1

The Key: The Giants have gone 2-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less this season. They are clearly better than their 5-7 record, but they haven't been able to finish.  Now trailing the Redskins and Eagles by a half-game, who both won yesterday, the Giants will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight.  The Dolphins are just as bad as their 5-7 record, if not worse.  Six of their seven losses have come by 10 points or more, and they've gone 3-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  Scoring margin tells the story as the Dolphins are getting outscored by 5.0 points per game on the season, while the Giants are outscoring teams by 0.9 points per game.  The Dolphins are 13-39-1 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 December games.  The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.  Take New York.

7* Falcons/Panthers 2-0 Parlay Sweeper on Atlanta +8/Under 45

The Key: The Falcons are undervalued due to going 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  This is already a crazy streak, and for them to lose ATS again this week, the chances are simply slim to none.  Their season is on the line this week against the Panthers, so they will be putting their best foot forward.  I think it will be enough to stay within this 8-point spread.  I also like the UNDER as this is a division rivalry game and these two teams are obviously very familiar with each other.  Each of the last 4 meetings have seen 44 or fewer combined points.  The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings in Carolina.  Take Atlanta and the UNDER.

7* Chargers/Chiefs 2-0 Parlay Sweeper on San Diego +11/UNDER 43.5

The Key: The Chiefs are overvalued due to going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Chargers are undervalued due to going 1-7 in their last 8 games overall.  Six of the Chargers 9 losses this season have come by 8 points or less.  This is only the 2nd time this season the Chiefs have been favored by more than 4.5 points.  They lost outright as 9-point favorites over the Bears the first time.  This is a division rivalry game, so these teams are very familiar with each other, and I like the UNDER as a result.  They combined for 36 points in their first meeting this season in San Diego.  Take San Diego and the UNDER.

7* Army/Navy NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Army +22

The Key: This is a ton of points for a rivalry game.  Records can pretty much be throwing out the window when these two teams get together.  We saw that last year with Army only losing 17-10 to Navy as 16.5-point underdogs.  That was the third time in the last four years that this game was decided by 7 points or less.  In fact, Army has only lost by more than 14 points to Navy once in the last 6 meetings.  Army is much better than its 2-9 record this season.  8 of its 9 losses have come by 17 points or less, including 7 by 10 points or fewer, and 6 by 7 points or less.  The Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Army.

7* Vikings/Cardinals TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -10

The Key: The Cardinals are on a mission to finish out the season strong after floundering last year and giving way to the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC West title.  They are off to a good start with six straight victories coming in, including a 27-3 win over the Rams on the road last week.  The Vikings lost 7-38 to the Seahawks last week and will really struggle to score against this elite Arizona defense.  Minnesota's defense, which is extremely banged up right now, will also struggle to slow down Carson Palmer and Arizona's top-ranked offense.  This one just has blowout written all over it.  The Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 December games.  Arizona is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 against NFC opponents.  Take Arizona.

7* Cowboys/Redskins MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +3.5

The Key: With a win Monday, the Cowboys can pull within one game of the NFC East lead.  With a loss, they are pretty much done.  It's safe to say that they are going to be laying it all on the line to try to get a win given the situation.  The Cowboys are 0-7 without Tony Romo, but they have been competitive at least.  Five of those losses came by a TD or less, and two were in overtime.  While I expect the Cowboys to win outright tonight, there is also a good chance it's decided by 3 points or less either way.  The Cowboys have had extra prep time because they played last Thursday.  The Cowboys have been the better team statistically.  They are only getting outgained by 0.6 yards per game, while the Redskins are getting outgained by 27.1 yards per game.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played on a grass field.  Its running game will be the difference in this one as Darren McFadden has a big day against a Washington defense that is giving up 127 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  Take Dallas.

7* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks -1

The Key: The Seattle Seahawks are only 6-5, but you could make the argument that they are still the best team in the NFC.  They have held a 4th quarter lead in all 11 of their games.  Russell Wilson and the offense put up 39 points on the Steelers last week thanks to five touchdown passes from their star quarterback.  Look for this team to continue its second-half surge with a win over the Vikings Sunday.  The Vikings are actually getting outgained on the season and aren't as good as their 8-3 record.  Teddy Bridgewater is going to have his hands full against this Seattle defense, which is one of the best in the league.  Seattle ranks 5th in the NFL against the run giving up just 92.9 yards per game.  It is well-equipped to stop Adrian Peterson and will force Bridgewater to have to make more plays than he's used to.  The Seahawks are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 December games.  Seattle is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. defenses that allow 61% completions or more in the second half of the season.  Take Seattle.

7* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on USC +4.5

The Key: It's tough to beat a team twice in the same season.  That's especially a team as talented as this USC outfit. These players are motivated to win for their new head coach in Clay Helton, who was just given a 5-year contract to stay at USC.  They love this guy and have responded well to him.  He has led them to a 5-2 record with his only losses coming against Notre Dame and Oregon, which are two of the best teams in the country.  Cody Kessler is going to move the ball up and down the field on this Stanford defense, which is without two starting cornerbacks in Alijah Holder and Ronnie Harris.  Notre Dame did the same thing against Stanford last week, and the Cardinal were fortunate to escape with a 1-point victory on a last-second field goal.  With revenge in mind, the Trojans will be the more motivated team here.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take USC.

7* Packers/Lions NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3

The Key: There's no way the Green Bay Packers are going to get swept by the Detroit Lions.  They shouldn't have lost their first meeting when they were beaten 16-18 at home by the Lions despite outgaining them 372-287.  Their offense has been held in check in recent games, but now Aaron Rodgers and company get to go indoors inside Ford Field and should get untracked.  The Packers are playing well defensively, giving up 16 points and 306 yards per game in their last three.  The Lions have played well here of late, but that has only kept this line lower than it should be.  The Packers need to win the NFC North, and they're one game behind Minnesota, so it's time for them to put their best foot forward.  Detroit is 1-12 ATS in the second half of the season against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  Take Green Bay.

7* Ravens/Browns MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3

The Key:  The Ravens are an absolute mess right now.  They are without their three best offensive players in Joe Flacco, Steve Smith and Justin Forsett.  I give them little chance of staying competitive in this game against the Cleveland Browns as a result.  I also like that the Browns are coming off their bye week.  I like that the Browns have benched Johnny Manziel in favor of Josh McCown, who is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league.  McCown is completing 65 percent of his passes for 1,897 yards and an 11-4 TD/INT ratio this year.  He threw for a career-high 457 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-30 road win at Baltimore in their first meeting.  The Browns outgained the Ravens 505 to 377 in that game.  Another dominant performance can be expected from the Browns at home this time around.  The Ravens are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Cleveland.

7* Pats/Broncos Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Denver +3

The Key: The Patriots are without their two best slot receivers in Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.  They're also without their most dangerous weapon out of the backfield in Dion Lewis.  This short-handed club is going to struggle against this elite Denver defense today.  The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks (34), fewest TD passes allowed (8) and fewest passing yards per game (190.6).  They held Aaron Rodgers to 77 passing yards at home.  Brock Osweiler is an upgrade over Peyton Manning right now.  He threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears last week.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Denver.

7* NCAAF Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina +19

The Key: The betting public wants nothing to do with South Carolina right now after it lost 22-23 at home to The Citadel last week.  But the Gamecocks didn't show up for that game.  They were highly competitive in their previous four games under their interim coach, which is a lot more significant to me than The Citadel result.  They won 19-10 over Vanderbilt in their first game without Steve Spurrier.  They went on to lose 28-35 at Texas A&M as 14-point dogs, 24-27 at Tennessee as 17-point dogs, and 14-24 at home to Florida as 7.5-point dogs only after the Gators tacked on a late TD to put the game away.  If they can hang with those four teams, they can certainly keep it close against Clemson at home.  South Carolina players met amongst themselves to get some things off their chest leading up to this game.  Shawn Elliott believes he sees a determined look in his players' eyes leading into this game.  ''You can kind of look at an individual and tell if they've got it or not,'' he said. ''I think everyone got it.''  This is South Carolina's National Championship as it won't be going to a bowl game.  Clemson continues to be overvalued due to its No. 1 national ranking, going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  It won by 10 of FSU (-12.5), by 10 over Syracuse (-30) and by 20 over Wake Forest (-29) as a big favorite in each game.  It is too big of a favorite once again this week.  Clemson is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last two seasons.  The Gamecocks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.  Clemson is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 trips to South Carolina.  Take South Carolina.

7* Western Michigan/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Toledo -8

The Key: Toledo is 9-1 and has a chance to cap the regular season with its best record in 15 years and play for the MAC Championship.  A win would put the Rockets in the MAC Championship for the first time since 2004.  They have this opportunity because Northern Illinois lost to Ohio on Tuesday.  Now I fully expect this re-energized group to take advantage and to pick up its sixth consecutive victory over Western Michigan in this series.  The Rockets scored on their first six possessions and held Bowling Green's high-octane offense to a season-low 368 total yards in a 44-28 road win last week.  Western Michigan gives up 185.3 rushing yards per game and has surrendered 525 rushing yards and five rushing TDs in its last two games.  Kareem Hunt has gained 406 yards with six touchdowns over his last three games and is primed for a big day.  The Rockets are 11-1-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Take Toledo.