Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Rams/Bengals Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +4.5

7* 49ers/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +3.5

7* Bills/Chiefs AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo +2.5

7* 49ers/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +3

7* Raiders/Bengals AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati -5

7* Georgia/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia -2.5

7* NFC North Game of the Year on Chicago Bears +5.5

7* LSU/Kansas State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas State -3.5

7* Browns/Steelers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +3.5

7* NFC Game of the Month on Philadelphia Eagles -4.5

7* Utah/Ohio State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah +4.5

7* Bowl Game of the Year on Michigan +7.5

7* Purdue/Tennessee NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -6

7* Maryland/Virginia Tech NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Maryland -3.5

7* West Virginia/Minnesota NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -5

7* Dolphins/Saints MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -2.5

7* NFC Game of the Year on Chicago Bears +7

7* Ball State/Georgia State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia State -5.5

7* Wyoming/Kent State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Wyoming -3.5

7* Vikings/Bears MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -5.5

7* Saints/Bucs SNF Game of the Year on New Orleans +11.5

7* Patriots/Colts AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis -2

7* Chiefs/Chargers TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3.5

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Las Vegas Raiders +10.5

7* Patriots/Bills MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -2.5

7* Houston/Cincinnati AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +10.5

7* Cowboys/Saints TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -5

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Denver Broncos +3

The Key: No game report from Monday, November 22 through Sunday, November 28.  Home with family for Thanksgiving week.

7* NCAAF Rivalry Game of the Year on Florida State +3

The Key: No game report from Monday, November 22 through Sunday, November 28.  Home with family for Thanksgiving week.

7* NCAAF Situational Game of the Year on UTEP +13.5

The Key: No game report from Monday, November 22 through Sunday, November 28.  Home with family for Thanksgiving week.

7* NFL Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins -3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins just beat the Baltimore Ravens 22-10 in a dominant effort last Thursday.  They outgained the Ravens by 46 yards and had Lamar Jackson flustered the whole game.  The Dolphins have one of the best secondaries in the NFL and were able to play man to man coverage and blitz the entire time.  It came a week after holding the Texans to 9 points and forcing 4 turnovers with another blitz-happy scheme.  And now they will definitely be blitz-happy again against the Jets this week and trust in their secondary to stop the immobile Joe Flacco.  Flacco is their 4th string QB this week and will be getting the start to try and avoid any QB controversy surrounding rookie Zach Wilson moving forward.  Mike White and Josh Johnson are both better than Flacco.  The Jets are essentially packing it in.  Their defense has yielded 43.4 PPG in their last 4 games and is the worst defense in the league.  Tua looked great in the 2nd half against Baltimore in place of an injured Jacoby Brissett and should be good to go again this week.  The Dolphins are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 matchups with the Jets, winning both matchups last year by 24 and 17 points.  Take Miami.

7* NCAAF Game of the Year on UCLA -3

The Key: The UCLA Bruins want to avenge their 43-38 loss to USC last year in which they had the game won but somehow lost it in the final seconds.  This is a different USC team.  The Trojans are just ready for their season to be over at 4-5 this year.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games by 15 points or more, and their lone win was a 7-point victory over terrible Arizona.  The Bruins own bad teams, going 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record.  And the Trojans will be without starting QB Slovis and 1,000-yard receiver London.  Take UCLA.

7* Patriots/Falcons TNF Game of the Year on Atlanta +7

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons just lost by 40 to the Dallas Cowboys.  The New England Patriots just beat the Browns by 38.  Now the price is right to back the Falcons Thursday night.  Atlanta was only a 4-point underdog in this game going into last week.  Now after those results, the Falcons are 7-point dogs.  This is the same Atlanta team that upset the Saints on the road the previous week.  They just came in fat and happy against the Cowboys, while the Cowboys were pissed off after getting upset by the Broncos the previous week.  It was a predictable result.  The Patriots cannot be going on the road and laying 7 points against almost anyone.  They just aren't that good this season, and it will show Thursday night.  Take Atlanta.

7* Central Michigan/Ball State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan -1.5

The Key: The Central Michigan Chippewas have gone 4-1 SU in their last 5 games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point.  They are still alive to win the MAC West due to this run.  They would need to win out and have Northern Illinois lose its final 2 games, which is very possible considering NIU is only a 1-point favorite at Buffalo tonight and has Western Michigan next week.  The Chippewas will show up tonight.  I question whether or not Ball State will show up.  The Cardinals were just eliminated from MAC West title contention after losing on a last-second field goal to NIU 29-30 last week.  The defending champs now have nothing to play for other than bowl eligibility, which they can accomplish next week at home against Buffalo.  I think they will suffer a hangover from that NIU loss last week and not show up this week.  The Chippewas are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games as road favorites.  The Chippewas are 14-2-1 ATS in their last 17 Wednesday games.  The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.  The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 matchups.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Rams/49ers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +3.5

The Key: Kyle Shanahan has had the Rams' number over the last couple seasons.  The 49ers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  They won outright as underdogs the 3 times they were in this role.  I like the price we are getting on the 49ers after their upset loss to the Cardinals last week.  The Rams continue to get respect despite losing outright by 12 as 7-point favorites to the Titans last week.  This game should be lined much closer to a PK as these are closer to even teams than their records would suggest when you take a deeper look into the stats.  Take San Francisco.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Carolina Panthers +10

The Key: The Panthers will go with a run-heavy approach with deal-threat QB PJ Walker and RB Christian McCaffrey this week.  It will work against an Arizona defense that ranks 31st in allowing 4.8 YPC.  It will also help shorten the game and keep them in this game for 4 quarters.  I like Carolina's defense which ranks 2nd in the NFL in both YPG (293.1) and YPP (5.0) allowed.  It sounds like the Cardinals are likely to be without Kyler Murray again, and they will be without Chase Edmunds and De'Andre Hopkins as well as all 3 our doubtful or out.  WR Rondale Moore is in concussion protocol as well.  It's asking a lot of Colt McCoy to repeat the performance he had last week.  The Cardinals go from being 5.5-point dogs to the 49ers to 10-point favorites against the Panthers, which is too big of an adjustment.  Arizona is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.  The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Take Carolina.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Tennessee +20.5

The Key: Tennessee has the best offense that Georgia has faced this year and should be able to put up enough points to stay within this number.  The Vols also have a better defense than they get credit for yielding only 5.3 YPP and 3.8 YPR.  Their fast tempo will be something that Georgia hasn't seen this season and may not be prepared for.  It is the type of style that can actually find some holes in this amazing Georgia defense.  QB Hendon Hooker has thrown 21 TD against only 2 INT this year with 69.4% completions.  He has also rushed for 457 yards and 4 TD while being one of the most underrated QB's in the nation.  Take Tennessee.

7* Bears/Steelers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have won 3 in a row behind one of the best defenses in the NFL that has held their last 3 opponents to an average of just 16.3 PPG.  I don't see the Chicago Bears topping that number Monday, which will allow Big Ben and the offense to make just enough plays to cover this 6.5-point spread and win by a TD or more.  The Bears have the worst offense in the NFL, ranking last at 4.4 YPP this year.  They have been even worse with Justin Fields at QB.  They average just 264 YPG in their last 6 games with him as their starter.  Chicago's defense is a huge concern too with all the injuries.  They gave up 38 points to the Bucs followed by 33 points, 467 yards and 8.6 YPPG last week to the 49ers in their last 2 games.  Pittsburgh will get to 24, and that will be enough to win by 7 or more.  The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games off a loss.  Chicago is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Chargers/Eagles NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -1

The Key: The Chargers had 3 straight impressive wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns before being flat the last 2 weeks against the Ravens and Patriots.  All 5 of those teams are better than the Eagles, whose 3 wins this year have come against the Lions, Panthers and Falcons.  The Chargers will make easy work of the Eagles this week and get back on track.  Los Angeles is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games against NFC teams.  Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after covering the spread in its previous game.  Take Los Angeles.

7* ACC Game of the Year on North Carolina -2.5

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels have played a much tougher schedule than the Wake Forest Demon Deacons this season and they have had tough luck in close games, while the Demon Deacons have won all their close games.  That's the difference in UNC being 4-4 while Wake is 8-0.  But the Tar Heels will hand the Demon Deacons their first loss of the year this week.  The Tar Heels are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games against a team with a winning record.  The home team has covered 6 of the last 7 matchups in this series.  Take North Carolina.

7* VT/BC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Boston College +3

The Key: This is Boston College's Red Bandana game that stems back to 9/11 and the heroes.  Look up the story it's pretty good.  The Eagles have been great in this game year after year as it adds to their motivation.  And they won't have any problem being motivated with rival Virginia Tech coming to town for a National TV Friday night game.  I expect them to win this game on the field, but I'll take the 3 points.  The Hokies are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games off 2 straight games where they committed zero turnovers.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games after gaining 125 or fewer rushing yards in 3 straight games.  The Hokies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Virginia Tech is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 games as a road favorite.  The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.  Take Boston College.

7* Jets/Colts AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +10.5

The Key: The New York Jets come into Thursday with confidence with Mike White under center.  They just had 34 points and 511 yards against a good Cincinnati defense last week behind 405 passing yards and three touchdowns from White.  The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a disappointing OT loss to the Titans and are on a short week.  They may bounce back with a win, but asking them to win by 11 points or more tonight is asking a lot.  Carson Wentz continues to make bonehead plays week after week.  And he'll be without TY Hilton, plus the defense will now be without DT Tyquon Lewis.  Indianapolis is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a home favorite.  Take New York.

7* Giants/Chiefs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -9.5

The Key: The price is right to back the Kansas City Chiefs Monday Night.  They were 13-point favorites when this line opened and are now single-digit favorites.  They got crushed by the Titans last week, while the Giants crushed the Panthers.  Those recent results from last week are playing too much of a factor into this line this week.  Consider the Chiefs' 2 best performances this year came against NFC East teams when they went on the road to beat both the Eagles by 12 and Washington by 18.  They will also beat the banged-up Giants by double-digits this week.   New York is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after yielding 15 points or fewer last game.  Take Kansas City.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Houston Texans +14.5

The Key: Tyrod Taylor makes his return to the Texans looking to pick up where he left off in the first 2 games this year and provide this offense the same spark that he had before.  Taylor accounted for 471 yards and 4 touchdowns without a turnover in 6 quarters against the Jaguars and Browns to open the season.  He has been a covering machine as a starting QB in this league.  The Rams won't be hungry enough to put away the Texans by more than 2 touchdowns.  And it's an early start time for a West Coast team here, which is always a tough situation.  Take Houston.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas +30.5

The Key: Oklahoma State hasn't won a game by more than 11 points this season.  They may win this game by more than 11, but it's not going to be by 31-plus.  Kansas nearly upset Oklahoma last week and is getting better under their first-year head coach.  They will keep battling and keep this game competitive for 4 quarters.  The Cowboys are in a hangover situation after suffering their 1st loss of the season last week against Iowa State.  Take Kansas.

7* Packers/Cardinals NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +6.5

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won and covered 6 straight since that ugly opening loss to the Saints.  They are missing some players tonight, but so are the Cardinals, most notably JJ Watt.  As long as the Packers have Aaron Rodgers under center they have a chance.  And it's worth noting the Packers are 6-0 in 6 games without Devante Adams over the last 3 years and scoring over 32 PPG.  Take Green Bay.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Houston Texans +18

The Key: We have the perceived best team in the NFL in the 6-0 Arizona Cardinals against the perceived worst team in the NFL in the 1-5 Houston Texans here.  That fact has this number artificially inflated.  The Cardinals are primed for a letdown.  They just beat the Rams, 49ers and Browns and have the Packers on deck Thursday, so this is a sandwich spot.  This is more of a bet against the Cardinals due to the spot than it is a bet on the Texans.  But it's worth noting the Texans did outgain the Patriots by 8 yards 2 weeks ago and were only outgained by 35 yards by the Colts last week.  Take Houston.

7* Oregon/UCLA Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA -1

The Key: The Oregon Ducks have been getting too much love since winning at Ohio State.  They have lost to Stanford, nearly lost to Cal and played terribly against Arizona in their last 3 games while going 0-3 ATS.  UCLA is the more legit of these 2 teams and is a field goal away from being 6-1 this year.  They want to avenge their 35-38 road loss at Oregon last year and I expect them to.  The Ducks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games off a win.  Take UCLA.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State -2.5

The Key: Colorado State is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall.  The only loss came by 10 points at Iowa when they had the Hawkeyes on the ropes as 24-point dogs.  They won by 16 at Toledo as 14.5-point dogs.  They won by 18 over San Jose State as 3.5-point favorites.  They won by 29 at New Mexico as 13-point favorites.  Utah State is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games overall with its only win coming by 4 points against a very bad UNLV team.  They also lost by 14 to BYU and by 24 to Boise State, both at home.  The Aggies are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as home underdogs.  Take Colorado State.

7* Sun Belt Game of the Month on Arkansas State +18

The Key: Game report coming soon.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Houston Texans +10

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off an overtime loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football in which they put everything on the line and probably deserved to win.  But they came up short after blowing a 19-point lead.  Now they are on a short week and in a hangover spot.  They face a Texans team coming off one of their best games of the season in a 25-22 loss to the Patriots.  They missed a FG and an extra point and probably should have won that game.  Davis Mills threw for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns and is improving.  He should be good enough to hang with the Colts.  This has been an extremely closely-contested rivalry through the years.  14 of the last 15 matchups were decided by 9 points or fewer.  Take Houston.

7* MAC Game of the Month on Ball State -1

The Key: After a rough start to the season, the Ball State Cardinals are back to looking like the team that won the MAC last season.  They are coming off a 12-point win over Army as a 10.5-point dog and a 25-point win at Western Michigan as a 12.5-point dog.  Now they basically are a pick 'em against Eastern Michigan, a team that isn't nearly on those other two teams' levels.  Eastern Michigan is 4-2 but the wins have come against 4 of the worst teams in the nation.  They are in over their head here against the defending champs.  Ball State is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 against a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off an upset win as a dog.  Take Ball State.

7* California/Oregon NCAAF Friday Night Lights on California +14

The Key: The Oregon Ducks just had their dreams of making the college football playoff crushed with a 24-31 loss to Stanford last game.  The game prior was a misleading 41-19 win over an 0-5 Arizona team.  They were outgained by 42 yards by the Wildcats but were +5 in turnovers.  This Oregon team continues to get too much respect for its upset win at Ohio State.  Oregon just lost leading rusher C.J. Verdell and his 397 yards and 5 TD to a season-ending injury, too.  California always seems to play Oregon tough.  The Bears are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS in the last 2 matchups the last 2 seasons.  They won outright 21-17 as 9-point home dogs last year.  The only lost 7-17 as 21.5-point road dogs in 2019.  They have the defense to keep them in this game for 4 quarters.  They need their offense to play like it did at Washington 2 games back when they had 457 yards against a very good Huskies defense in an OT loss.  The Golden Bears are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  The Ducks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  Take California.

7* Colts/Ravens MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -7

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens always feast on bad teams like the 1-3 Indianapolis Colts.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing record.  They face a Colts team that lost by 12 to the Seahawks and by 9 to the Titans.  Their only win came against the Miami Dolphins with backup QB Jacoby Brissett last week.  I think that win has them getting too much respect from the books here.  The Ravens beat the Broncos 23-7 last week and their offense humming right now, while their defense is as healthy as it has been all season and was a force against the Broncos last week.  Take Baltimore.

7* Jets/Falcons NFL London *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +3.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the New York Jets in this neutral site game in London.  This line should be closer to a PK as there's not much difference between these 2 teams.  Zach Wilson had his best game yet last week in a 27-24 upset of Tennessee.  They have played a tough schedule and now it lightens up a little here against Atlanta.  The Falcons are 1-3 with their only win coming 17-14 over the Giants.  They lost by 26 to the Eagles, by 23 to the Bucs and by 4 to Washington.  Matt Ryan is broken, and their defense is the worse unit here yielding 32.0 PPG and 383.3 YPG.  The Jets only give up 23.5 PPG and 353.8 YPG and have been respectable on that side.  Wilson is only going to get better with each start, and should have his best game yet against this Falcons defense.  Atlanta is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 against teams that force 0.75 turnovers per game or fewer.  Take New York.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Utah +3

The Key: The Utah Utes are coming off their bye week and have had time to put the distractions and the poor start behind them.  Look for them to put their best foot forward against USC Saturday.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a conference win.  The Utes are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as road dogs.  Utah is 46-22-2 ATS in its last 70 games as a dog.  The Utes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 October games.  Take Utah.

7* Stanford/Arizona State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Stanford +13.5

The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils are starting to get too much love after 2 straight blowout wins over Colorado and UCLA.  They are being asked to win this game by at least 14 points and it's too much.  Stanford has been underrated all season.  They have upset wins over both USC and Oregon, which were expected to be the 2 best teams in the Pac-12 coming into the year.  So they have proven what they are capable of.  And they are more than capable of going on the road and hanging with Arizona State and possibly pulling the upset.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record.  The Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites.  Take Stanford.

7* Rams/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle +2.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Seattle Seahawks tonight as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams.  Russell Wilson thrives in prime time, and he and the Seahawks will be out for revenge after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Rams last season.  The Rams have taken a big step back defensively this year in yielding 24.8 PPG and 396.8 YPG.  The Rams are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games after yielding 400 or more total yards in 2 straight games.  Bets against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a terrible defense that yields 360 YPG or more, after gaining 400 or more yards in 2 straight games are 26-5 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Seattle.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Louisiana Tech +19

The Key: The LA Tech Bulldogs are close to being 4-0 despite a brutal schedule.  Their 2 losses are to Mississippi State and SMU by a combined 3 points.  And they had both of them on the ropes with late leads in the 4th quarter.  This couldn't be a worst situation for NC State.  They are feeling fat and happy off their win over Clemson last week.  They won't give the Bulldogs their full attention this week.  The Wolfpack are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games against good passing teams that average 8 YPA or more.  Take Louisiana Tech.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Iowa -3

The Key: The Iowa Hawkeyes are 4-0 this season behind an elite defense that is one of the best in the country.  And defense clearly travels, so I like Iowa to cover this short 3-point spread on the road at Maryland tonight.  The Hawkeyes are giving up just 11.0 PPG and 271.5 YPG while forcing 9 turnovers in 4 games.  These teams have a common opponent in Kent State.  Iowa only gave up 264 yards to Kent State.  Maryland allowed 458 yards to the Golden Flashes.  While Iowa has already played two Top 25 teams in Indiana and Iowa State, Maryland has feasted on a weak schedule during its 4-0 start.  The Hawkeyes are more battle-tested and will get the job done here.  The Hawkeyes are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as road favorites.  The Terrapins are 9-27 ATS in their last 36 games off a win.  Maryland is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Iowa.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Los Angeles Chargers +6.5

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs don't blow teams out, and the Los Angeles Chargers don't get blown out.  So this is a pretty easy choice for me.  The Chargers only lost 2 games all season last year by more than one score.  They they have lost by more than one score just twice in their last 18 games when you figure they won by 4 at Washington and lost by 3 at home to the Cowboys in their first 2 games this year.  The Chiefs have won just one of their last 13 games by more than one score.  That's a big reason they are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their leaky defense is the reason they can't blow out teams, and it has reared its ugly head again this year.  The Chiefs have yielded 469 YPG and 7.6 YPP in 2 games this year against the Browns and Ravens.  The Chargers averaged 447.5 YPG in 2 matchups with the Chiefs last year.  The Chargers are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games as road dogs.  Take Los Angeles.

7* SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +5.5

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks are underrated this season.  They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS and just played Georgia last week in a cover.  Now they get to host Kentucky, which will be playing its first road game of the year.  The Wildcats weren't impressive in their 7-point home win over Missouri or their 5-point home win as a 31-point favorite against UT-Chattanooga last week.  They barely escaped with victory over that bad FCS team, and they shouldn't be road favorites here against the Gamecocks.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take South Carolina.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV +30.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They just upset UCLA late Saturday night in a 40-37 win as 10.5-point dogs.  That was one of the most exciting, back-and-forth games of the season.  QB Jake Haener played through an injury and just kept coming in one of the most remarkable games you will ever see by a quarterback.  He had to basically be carried off the field and cannot be 100%.  Look for the Bulldogs to be cautious with him.  They just won't be able to get up for UNLV.  This is actually a step down in competition for UNLV after facing Arizona State and Iowa State the last 2 weeks.  The Rebels are expected to get back QB Doug Brumfield after he missed the last 2 games with injury.  He played well in the opener against Eastern Washington with 117 passing yards and 9.0 YPA as well as 27 rushing yards and a score.  The Rebels only lost that game 33-35 (OT) as 2.5-point dogs against one of the best teams in FCS.  Fresno State has only won one of its last 10 matchups with the Rebels by more than 29 points.  Take UNLV.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Cincinnati Bengals +3

The Key: Joe Burrow was impressive in his season debut and didn't look hobbled at all.  He completed 20 of 27 passes for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the Bengals to a 27-24 (OT) win over the Vikings.  Joe Mixon had 127 yards on the ground as the Bengals did pretty much whatever they wanted to against a good Vikings defense.  Now the Bengals take a step down here against a weak Bears offense and defense.  That was evident in their 34-14 loss to the Rams to open the season.  The Bears averaged just 4.7 YPP on offense and gave up 7.7 YPP on defense in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Bears are missing several key players in LB Trevathan, NT Goldman, RB Cohen and could be without T Peters.  Andy Dalton clearly is not the answer at QB and will struggle against his former team as well.  Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a home favorite.  Take Cincinnati.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Utah -8.5

The Key: Kyle Whittingham called out his team after losing the line of scrimmage to BYU in their upset loss last week.  Look for his players to respond here, and for the Utes to put it on the San Diego State Aztecs.  San Diego State will be without starting QB Jordan Brookshire after he was knocked out of the Arizona game last week.  The Aztecs have played a weak schedule of New Mexico State and Arizona thus far, so this is a big step up in competition.  San Diego State was actually outgained by New Mexico State in their opener.  That's a New Mexico State team that lost 30-3 to UTEP and 34-25 to New Mexico.  Whittingham is 22-7 ATS after a game where his team forced zero turnovers as the coach of Utah.  The Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against Mountain West teams.  Utah is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups with four of the wins coming by 16 points or more.  Take Utah.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Illinois +7

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Illinois tonight as 7-point dogs to Maryland.  We are getting this price because Illinois is coming off two bad losses in a row to UTSA and Virginia.  But keep in mind that Illinois upset Nebraska at home in their opener with a healthy Brandon Peters at quarterback.  Peters left that game and hasn't returned since.  But Peters is now back this week and will give the offense a spark.  I think Maryland is overrated off a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start that included a win against Howard.  The other win was gift-wrapped to them by West Virginia who lost the turnover battle 4-0 in a 30-24 win by the Terrapins.  The Fighting Illini will put up a much better fight than they have the last 2 weeks in this standalone home game in front of a good crowd and with Peters back under center.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 6.25 YPP or more last game that has 8 or more offensive starters including their QB returning in the first month of the season are 23-5 ATS since 1992.  Take Illinois.

7* Giants/Washington TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington -3

The Key: Washington has the edge at the line of scrimmage in a big way on both sides of the football in this game.  That will help make up for having a backup QB in Taylor Heinicke, who actually played really well in replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick in the first half last week.  He completed 11 of his 15 passes for 120 yards with a score and didn't turn the ball over.  Washington will be able to rely in Gibson to run the ball after the Broncos rushed for 156 yards on the Giants last week.  The Giants only ran for 60 yards on 20 carries and Saquon Barkley is questionable.  Daniel Jones isn't very good and will be without his safety valve in TE Evan Engram.  This has Washington blowout written all over it.  Take Washington.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Cincinnati Bengals +3

The Key: I don't like the outlook of the Minnesota Vikings this season.  They went 0-3 in the preseason and were outscored by 10.6 PPG.  Their defense was a problem last year in allowing 29.7 PPG and 393.3 YPG.  It will be better but not much.  The Bengals were good when Joe Burrow was running the show.  He had 5 300-yard passing games in his 10 starts.  Burrow is back healthy and the offense is loaded.  He is playing behind an offensive line that didn't allow a single sack in the preseason.  And the defense will be improved.  The Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and shouldn't be favored on the road here.  Take Cincinnati.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Middle Tennessee +20

The Key: Middle Tennessee is primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  16th-year head coach Rick Stockstill brought back 19 starters and added in NC State transfer Bailey Hockman at quarterback.  The Blue Raiders won their opener 50-15 over Monmouth as an 8.5-point favorite.  That was a quality FCS team that came into the season ranked 13th in the country.  Hockman went 17-of-22 passing for 215 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  This is a letdown spot for Virginia Tech coming off a big upset win over North Carolina in the opener last week.  The Hokies took advantage of three UNC turnovers in a 17-10 win.  Their offense is a problem with just 296 total yards against a weak UNC defense.  And they are going to have a hard time covering this big number with their offense.  Hockman and company can keep up with them on the scoreboard.  And don't be surprised if the Hokies are flat off that upset win, and with a game against West Virginia on deck.  The Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as underdogs.  The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Middle Tennessee.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Kansas +26.5

The Key: The Kansas Jayhawks had one of the best hires of the offseason by bringing in Lance Leipold from Buffalo.  He took the Bulls to 2 MAC title games the past 3 seasons and previously went 109-6 at D-3 Wisconsin-Whitewater.  He is one of the best up and coming head coaches in the country.  Les Miles didn't leave the cupboard bare as he has 16 returning starters and Miles recruited as well as he could have to Kansas.  The Jayhawks went 0-9 last year, so the fact that they finally won a game even though it was against South Dakota in the opener is a big step in the right direction.  It will give these players some confidence moving forward.  Now they face an overrated Coastal Carolina team that nearly went undefeated last year.  Because of that, you are paying a tax to back Coastal Carolina.  Keep in mind Kansas was a 4.5-point home favorite against Coastal Carolina last year and is now a 26.5-point underdog this year, a 31-point adjustment.  Kansas lost that game 23-38, but they outgained Coastal 367 to 318 for the game.  But they were -3 in turnovers which was the difference.  I just think the price is right to back the Jayhawks here as they stay within 4 touchdowns of the Chanticleers.  Take Kansas.

7* Cowboys/Bucs NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay -8

The Key: Dak Prescott hasn't played since October after not playing in the preseason.  He won't be able to turn around and hand the ball off much because the Bucs ranked 1st in the NFL against the run last season.  He's going to have to chuck it around, and he's going to have to do so behind a patchwork offensive line that is missing a couple starters.  He's also going to be playing from behind because the Bucs will score at will against a Cowboys defense that gave up nearly 30 PPG last year.  The Bucs have great chemistry with amazingly all 22 starters returning from their Super Bowl team.  They will be clicking from the start this season, while it's going to take the Cowboys some time to gel.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Louisville/Ole Miss NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -9

The Key: There's a lot to like about Ole Miss this year coming off a 5-5 season in which they took Alabama to the wire and beat Indiana in their bowl game.  The Rebels have an elite offense that put up 39.2 PPG and 556 YPG last year.  They have 8 starters back on offense and QB Matt Corral.  They have 9 starters back on defense and will be improved there.  Louisville went 4-7 last year with its 4 wins all coming in the role of the favorite against overmatched teams like WKU, Syracuse, Florida State and Wake.  Only 13 starters return for the Cardinals and they lose all of their big playmakers on offense, which is going to make it hard for them to keep up with Ole Miss on the scoreboard in a shootout in this one.  The Rebels will get their points.  Take Ole Miss.

7* Fresno/Oregon NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Fresno State +20.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs looked great in their 45-0 win over Connecticut.  The had 538 yards of offense and will be great on that side of the ball again this year.  They gave up just 107 yards on defense and will be improved there as well.  Oregon did give up 28.3 PPG and 406 YPG last year and won't be great defensively, especially with all the players they are missing in their secondary for the opener.  Anthony Brown is a downgrade at QB now that Tyler Shough left.  Oregon will be good this year, but they are now 3 touchdowns better than this tough Fresno State team from an underrated Mountain West Conference.  The Bulldogs are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Pac-12 games.  Take Fresno State.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Duke -6.5

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils are flying under the radar coming into the 2021 season.  That's because they went just 2-9 last season.  But they were much better than their record.  Amazingly, the Blue Devils finished -19 in turnover differential last year.  It can only get better this year with improved QB play as Chase Brice transferred and was a turnover machine.  One of Duke's win last year came against this same Charlotte team as they blew them out of the building, 53-19.  Now they are just being asked to cover a 6.5-point here and win by a TD or more to cover.  I certainly like the price.  Charlotte went 2-4 last year with its only wins coming against North Texas and UTEP.  Three losses came by 15 points or more.  The 49ers only have 5 starters back on defense and should get picked apart on that side of the field this season.  Take Duke.

7* Thursday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on East Carolina +10

The Key: The East Carolina Pirates were much better than their 3-6 record last year.  They got robby against Tulsa by the refs the week after losing to Navy by 4.  But they played their best football of the season the last 2 games beating Temple by 25 and upsetting SMU outright by 14 as 12-point dogs.  That gives them a lot of momentum heading into 2021.  Now they have a whopping 20 starters back and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers who will be starting for a 3rd straight year.  It is head coach Mike Houston's 3rd season here and it is his best team by far.  Appalachian State took a step back in Shawn Clark's first season last year with a 9-3 record.  The 9 wins were all against bad teams, and they lost to the best teams they faced in Louisiana, Coastal Carolina and Marshall.  The Mountaineers will be starting a new QB this year in Duke transfer Chase Brice.  I just think it's asking a lot of them to win this game by double-digits in their opener against what will be a much improved ECU team from the AAC.  It is also on a neutral field in Charlotte and not a true home game for App State, which is big because they've had such a huge home-field advantage through the years.  Take East Carolina.

7* Chiefs/Bucs Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have been dominant since their bye week.  They are 7-0 since their bye and scoring 34 PPG.  The Bucs have the offense to keep up with Patrick Mahomes, who will be running for his life in the Super Bowl without the services of his 2 starting offensive tackles.  The Bucs have the way better defense in this game as they are 6th in the NFL on that side of the ball while the Chiefs are only 18th.  And Tampa Bay will be playing at home.  The Bucs did not play well at all in their first matchup with the Chiefs this season and still only lost 24-27.  They will have their revenge here on the biggest stage of them all with Tom Brady doing what he does.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* NFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Green Bay Packers -3

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 7 straight games all by 7 points or more.  They have won those games by an average of nearly 15 PPG.  I think we are getting the Packers cheap as only 3-point home favorites against the Bucs in the NFC Championship Game.  The Bucs will be on the road for the 3rd straight week, and teams in this situation haven't fared well.  The Packers are still very fresh after getting that bye and haven't had to leave home.  They made easy work of the Rams in a 32-18 victory.  They outgained the Rams by 240 yards in that game and put up 484 yards against what was thought to be one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Bucs struggled to move the ball against the Saints and the Packers have a good pass defense.  The Bucs benefited from a +4 turnover differential against the Saints, who basically gave that game away after having a 20-13 lead in the second half, getting outscored 17-0 the rest the way.  The Bucs scored 21 points off turnovers.  Aaron Rodgers doesn't turn the ball over.  He has 50 touchdown passes and only 5 interceptions this year.  The Packers have won 8 of their 9 home games this year with an average margin of victory of 12.4 PPG.   They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Green Bay.

7* AFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Kansas City Chiefs -10

The Key: Andy Reid has a proven track record of being the best coach in the NFL to back off a bye.  The Chiefs needed a bye as they just seemed to be going through the motions down the stretch.  Now they will turn the switch on and put their best foot forward in the playoffs.  And that will be enough to put away the Cleveland Browns by double-digits.  The Browns had everything go their way against the Steelers by forcing 5 turnovers.  They still gave up 37 points and 553 total yards.  They gave up 47 points to Baltimore and 35 points to Tennessee recently.  The Chiefs will do whatever they want to against this soft Cleveland defense.  And I don't trust Baker Mayfield to be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company.  The Browns are 1-10 ATS int heir last 11 road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent.  Cleveland is 9-26-2 ATS in its last 37 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Kansas City.

7* Ohio State/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -8.5

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are going to go down as one of the best teams in college football history.  They have an elite defense as always, giving up 19 PPG.  But their offense is a record-setting one that will continue to pile on the points against Ohio State.  The Crimson Tide average 48.2 PPG and 535 YPG this year as they have outscored their foes by 29.2 PPG on the season.  And they have let up in the 2nd half of most their games.  They won't let up against the Buckeyes after seeing what they did to Clemson last week.  That was an aberration as the Buckeyes managed just 22 points against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship the week prior.  Clemson just allowed receivers to get behind them the entire game, which was a terrible strategy.  I trust Nick Saban to make the proper adjustments defensively.  And the weakness of this Ohio State defense is their secondary, which allowed 491 passing yards to Indiana and 400 more to Clemson.  That's bad news going up against Mac Jones, Devonta Smith and perhaps Jaylen Waddle returning.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards in their last game.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against Big Ten opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  Take Alabama.

7* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers -6

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers nearly beat the Cleveland Browns last week even with resting their starters.  They lost 22-24 but gained 394 yards with a backup QB.  They were a failed 2-point conversion from forcing OT.  Now the Steelers have their starters back and will win and cover in the rematch similar to when they beat the Browns 38-7 at home earlier this year.  Roethlisberger is 24-2-1 all-time against Cleveland and has never lost to them at home.  The Steelers are now 26-2 SU & 18-9-1 ATS in their last 28 home matchups with Cleveland.  The Browns will now be without head coach Kevin Stefanski due to COVID, and he is their play-caller on offense.  It's a huge loss.  The Browns are 8-26-2 ATS in their last 36 vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff home games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +3

The Key: The Jets have been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL to back down the stretch.  They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They have pulled off 2 straight upsets over the Rams as 17.5-point dogs and Browns as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they would love to get revenge from a 27-30 loss to the Patriots in their first matchup this season.  The Patriots are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall, getting outscored a combined 24-84 in the process.  They haven't even been competitive.  If they were going to show something it would have been against the Bills on Monday Night Football last week.  Instead they rolled over and lost 9-38.  Their offense is broken as they have been held to either 12 points or fewer or 291 yards or fewer in 5 straight games coming in.  They are missing several key contributors on both sides of the football.  The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.  Take New York.

7* UNC/Texas A&M NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M -7

The Key: Texas A&M just completed a dominant 8-1 season in which they proved they were one of the best teams in college football.  Their lone loss came to Alabama, which could be the best team in college football history.  And now the Aggies want to punctuate their season.  They don't have anyone really opting out for this one, and it's a senior-led team.  And they'll be up against a UNC team from a weak ACC conference that has almost all of their best players opting out and getting ready for the NFL draft.  Their top NFL prospect on defense and leading tackler Surratt is out.  They are without 2-time 1,000-yard receiver Brown, plus two 1,000-yard rushers in Carter and Williams.  QB Sam Howell might as well opt out as well with all the weapons he is missing.  It will go about as well for him as it did for Kyle Trask and Florida when they got blasted by Oklahoma earlier this week.  The Aggies are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites.  Texas A&M is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M.

7* Notre Dame/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -19.5

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish keep coming up short in big games.  It happened against in the ACC Championship when they lost 10-34 to Clemson.  And that game was every bit the blowout it seemed as Clemson outgained Notre Dame 541 to 263.  And it will be more of the same here against Alabama.  This may be the best Alabama team we've ever seen as they are outscoring opponents by 30.2 PPG this season.  They definitely have their best offense of the Saban era at 49.7 PPG.  And the Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents 131-47 in their last 4 playoff semifinal games.  They beat Notre Dame 42-14 in their last playoff matchup.  Ian Book isn't good enough to keep up with Mac Jones and company.  The Fighting Irish have allowed over 200 rushing yards in 2 straight games coming in, so the Crimson Tide should be able to run the ball when they need to late to keep margin.  Alabama is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Alabama.

7* Ball State/San Jose State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +10

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans were undervalued all season.  They went 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS this year en route to winning the Mountain West title.  They beat Boise State in the Championship Game.  This team was an underdog in 4 of their 7 games this season and won them all outright.  But now the Spartans are getting respect heading into this bowl game due to those perfect records both SU and ATS.  And asking them to win by 10-plus points to cover this number against Ball State is asking too much.  I don't see the Spartans being too excited to face a MAC opponent in their bowl game as I think they feel they deserved a better bowl game.  They will be content with their season no matter what happens here.  Ball State has been a different team since losing a fluky game to Miami Ohio in the opener.  The Cardinals have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS since while beating the best teams the MAC had to offer in Toledo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Buffalo.  Their outright 38-28 win over Buffalo as a 12-point dog showed what they are capable of.  And now the Cardinals will feel disrespected again as big dogs in their bowl game and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  No question the Cardinals have the better quarterback here, which is why they will never be out of this game.  Drew Plitt is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,947 yards with 16 TD and only 6 INT this season.  And this Ball State defense got better down the stretch, holding each of its final five opponents to 28 points or fewer.  This is a senior-laden Cardinals team that wants a bowl win desperately.  They haven't been to a bowl since 2013 and the program is 0-7 all-time in bowls.  They have a chance to make history here and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they win this game outright.  Take Ball State.

7* Florida/Oklahoma NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma -6.5

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall en route to yet another Big 12 title.  And while the Sooners will be almost at full strength for this one, the Florida Gators will not be.  The writing is pretty much on the wall that the Gators don't care about this game after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship.  They will be without each of their top 4 receivers with 3 opt outs and one due to COVID.  And they will be missing several other key players as well as they prepare for the NFL Draft.  The Sooners should make easy work of the Gators in this game even if Kyle Trask decides to play.  He won't have anyone to throw the ball to.  This Florida defense has allowed an average of 511.5 YPG and 44.5 PPG in back to back losses to LSU and Alabama.  The Sooners should be able to name their score.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Oklahoma State/Miami NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +1

The Key: The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  Miami is getting docked too much from a 62-26 loss to UNC in the season finale that put a bad taste in their mouths heading into the bowl season.  The Hurricanes still finished 8-2 with their other loss to Clemson.  Oklahoma State is getting too much respect for its 42-3 win over Baylor in the season finale.  That was a Baylor team coming off a tough loss to Oklahoma and they just failed to show up.  Remember the Cowboys went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games and had been very overrated.  They only beat Kansas State by 2 and Texas Tech by 6 for their 2 wins during that stretch and lost by 28 to Oklahoma.  The news that D'Eriq King announced he is coming back next year at QB for Miami has energized this team.  And they want to make amends for an upset loss to LA Tech in their bowl game last year.  They will be hungry for a win and we should see the best version of Miami because of it, which should be good enough to beat Oklahoma State.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Miami.

7* Bills/Patriots MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7

The Key: The Bills have a lot to play for.  They can be the first team to sweep the season series with the Patriots in 19 years.  And they can grab a stranglehold on the 2nd seed in the AFC with a win here over the Patriots.  They want to keep their momentum going, too.  The Bills have won 7 of their last 8 games with their only loss coming on that hail mary against Arizona.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as well with 5 wins by 10 points or more.  They are scoring 34.8 PPG in their last 6 games and giving up just 18.8 PPG in their last 4 contests.  The Patriots are averaging just 248 YPG in their last 4 games as their offense has held them back all season.  Their best defensive player in CB Stephon Gilmore just went out with a season-ending injury against the Dolphins last week in their 22-12 loss.  They won't have him to match up with Stefon Diggs now, who is having a monster season in his first year in Buffalo.  There's just nothing to like about the Patriots right now, and there's everything to like about the Bills, who may be the best team in the AFC.  Take Buffalo.

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Georgia State -3.5

The Key: Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year through Wednesday and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  Now it's Western Kentucky's turn to get blasted.  The Hilltoppers went 5-6 this year with their 5 wins coming against either FCS opponents or teams that won 3 games or fewer.  The 4 C-USA teams they beat have a combined 8-22 record this year.  WKU had the worst offense in all of C-USA this season at 18.8 PPG.  Appalachian State beat North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern beat LA Tech 38-3 in a pair of Sun Belt vs. C-USA matchups already this bowl season.  Georgia State only lost to App State 17-13 and beat Georgia Southern 30-24.  The Panthers average 32.7 PPG this year and will have a huge edge on offense in this matchup.  This should be another Sun Belt over C-USA blowout Saturday.  Take Georgia State.

7* Marshall/Buffalo NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls went undefeated in the regular season before falling to Ball State in the MAC Championship.  Their numbers have been dominant all year as they average 47.8 PPG and give up just 23.8 PPG.  And now they take on a team from Conference USA in Marshall.  Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  That's bad news for a Marshall team that has averaged just 6.5 PPG in losing its last 2 games to Rice (20-0) and UAB (13-22).  Marshall went 7 straight quarters without scoring a single point over those 2 games before getting 13 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter against UAB.  Marshall QB Wells has completed just 45% of his passes over the last 2 games with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  Marshall will be without leading rusher RB Knox, leading tackler LB Beckett and top offensive lineman G Ball as they all try and get ready for the NFL.  Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.  Marshall is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a loss.  Take Buffalo.

7* Hawaii/Houston NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Hawaii +9.5

The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors finished 4-4 this season with 4 losses against quality opponents, including an 8-point loss to Boise State.  They also upset Nevada, which just beat AAC member Tulane 38-27 in their bowl game.  And now they take on an AAC team in Houston that is just 3-4 on the season.  The Cougars didn't have any impressive wins this year as their 3 victories came against the bottom of the AAC with Navy, South Florida and Tulane.  And they lost 3 times by 17 points or more as well.  This feels like it will be a one-score game either way.  I like Hawaii QB Cordeiro who has totaled 18 touchdowns passing and rushing in 8 games this year.  He will make enough plays with his arm and feet to keep the Rainbow Warriors in this game for 4 quarters with a possible upset.  Take Hawaii.

7* UFC/BYU Boca Raton Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -6

The Key: The BYU Cougars (10-1) are the better team in this matchup with the UCF Knights (6-3).  They will be the more hungry team here too with UCF used to playing in much bigger bowls than the Boca Raton Bowl.  And BYU will pretty much have its full compliment of players for this game while UCF has some guys opting out, including leading receiver Marlon Williams who had 71 receptions for 1,039 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. Both teams have explosive offenses with UCF averaging 44.3 PPG and 6.8 YPP while BYU averages 43.0 PPG and 7.7 YPP.  But the difference in this game is defensively.  BYU only gives up 14.6 PPG, 308.9 YPG and 4.8 YPP.  UCF allows 31.4 PPG, 473.7 YPG and 5.9 YPP.   UCF is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games with a total of 70 or higher.  The Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  UCF has losses to Cincinnati, Tulsa and Memphis this season.  BYU's only loss came to Coastal Carolina on only a few days' notice.  And that's an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team.  Take BYU.

7* Steelers/Bengals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +14.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Bengals tonight after losing 5 straight and failing to cover 4 of their last 5.  They are getting docked a lot more for their recent struggles than the Steelers are.  Keep in mind the Steelers have lost 2 in a row to Washington and Buffalo.  Their injuries on defense and their lack of a running game on offense have held them back in recent weeks.  Plus they have been a tired team with the schedule difficulty as they will now be playing their 4th game in 20 days.  Their offense has been held to 19 points or fewer in 3 straight.  Cincinnati's defense has given up 20 points or fewer in 3 of its last 4.  And the only exception was the 30 points they gave up to Dallas which was aided by 3 fumbles early in the game.  The Cowboys only managed 272 yards against them.  This is only the 2nd time all season that the Steelers have bene a double-digit favorite.  They nearly lost outright to the Cowboys in their largest favorite role of -14.  This is only the 2nd time all season that the Bengals have been a double-digit underdog.  Oddsmakers know that the public wants nothing to do with the Bengals right now so they are forced to set this number higher than it should be.  The Steelers are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati.

7* 49ers/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +3.5

The Key: The Cowboys have covered 3 of their last 5 coming in after a 30-7 win at Cincinnati last week.  This is a great price on the Cowboys at home against a 49ers team that doesn't have anything to play for and has been hurt by injuries worse than any other team in the NFL.  That's a big reason why the 49ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games coming in.  The Cowboys are still very much alive in the NFC East race and should be the hungrier team.  Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog.  Take Dallas.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford +7

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have won 3 straight and have all the momentum right now going into this final game of the season.  That includes their upset win over Washington as a double-digit underdog.  And now they are catching 7 points against a UCLA team that is 3-3 and coming off a 3rd heartbreaking loss this season.  This one was a 38-43 loss to USC in which they allowed a TD with 16 seconds left.  They were in control of the game the whole way, too.  I don't expect this young UCLA team to be able to handle that loss very well, and they likely won't even show up this week against Stanford.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 matchups with UCLA, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 matchups at UCLA.  Take Stanford.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Rutgers +7

The Key: Nebraska is just 2-5 and should not be favored this heavily over Rutgers in the season finale for both teams.  The Huskers are coming off an upset loss to Minnesota as 8-point favorites.  Rutgers has the momentum, coming off an upset win over Maryland last time out.  They also upset Purdue two games ago as a double-digit dog.  They have been competitive in most their games this year, too.  The Scarlet Knights now have a chance to win four Big Ten games for the first time since joining the conference in 2014.  "This Nebraska game is everything," head coach Greg Schiano said. "We're shooting for something that has not been done at Rutgers.  ANd, to do it in a situation where you play nine straight.  And, to do it in a situation where you didn't have a non-conference to work out any of the kings.  I think everybody in our program has a chance to do something special."  It's clear that the Scarlet Knights want this game more than Nebraska does.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have lost 3 of their last 4 games, in conference games are 70-38 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Huskers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as dogs.  Take Rutgers.

7* Chargers/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers are the better team than the Las Vegas Raiders despite what their records say.  The Chargers are 4-9 this season but outgaining their opponents by nearly 50 YPG, while the Raiders are 7-6 despite getting outgained by nearly 15 YPG.  The Raiders have a soft defense that allows 30.1 PPG on the season and 37.5 PPG over their last 4 contests.  And that defense isn't getting any better with all of their injuries right now, most notably to DE Ferrell and S Abram, who are among at least 4 starters that are out for this game.  The Chargers want to end the Raiders' playoff hopes here.  That would be sweet revenge for a 26-31 loss to the Raiders in their 1st matchup this year in which the Chargers had their game-winning TD overturned on replay on the final play of the game.  The Chargers outgained the Raiders by 120 yards in that contest and had a 26-16 edge in first downs.  Bets against favorites like the Raiders after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 52-19 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Raiders committed 3 turnovers in their 27-44 loss to the Colts on Sunday and now have 10 turnovers in their last 3 games.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Ravens/Browns MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +3

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are out to prove that they can beat the Baltimore Ravens.  They want revenge from that 6-38 loss in Week 1 in which things spiraled out of control after a botched fake punt early and 3 turnovers.  The Browns have been a completely different team since.  They have gone 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and now find themselves just one game out of 1st place in the AFC North.  They are the much fresher, healthier team right now than the Ravens as well.  Baltimore will be playing its 3rd game in 12 days due to COVID complications.  They had just 5 days to get ready for the Browns after playing the Cowboys on Tuesday.  Cleveland has had 7 days to get ready for Baltimore.  The Browns are 5-1 SU at home this year.  Baker Mayfield is playing his best football and hasn't thrown an interception since October 25, a span of almost 6 games.  He has 11 TD and zero interceptions since his last pick.  And with Nick Chubb back healthy, the Browns have been monsters on the ground.  They have rushed for 100-plus yards in 5 straight games and an average of 173.3 RYPG in their last 4.  The Ravens have given up 111 or more rushing yards in 4 of their last 5.  The Browns have been good against the run all season, yielding only 104 RYPG.  Take Cleveland.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Washington +3

The Key: Washington has won 3 straight including upset road wins over the Cowboys and 49ers to get into a tie with the Giants for 1st place in the NFC East.  But they lost both matchups with the Giants so they are essentially a game behind.  They need wins like blood here down the stretch.  The 49ers just lost to the Bills last week to essentially eliminate them from the playoffs.  They are now 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  I don't like their mindset right now, and there's no way they should be favored over Washington this week.  Washington has one of the best defenses in the NFL in yielding only 310.9 YPG.  And Alex Smith has provided some stability to their offense.  He led them back from a 14-0 deficit against the Steelers last week to pull the 23-17 upset.  Washington hasn't lost any of its last 7 games by more than 3 points, making for a 7-0 angle back them here.   The 49ers are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games as favorites.  Take Washington.

7* USC/UCLA Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA +3.5

The Key: The UCLA Bruins are very close to being 5-0 this year.  They lost by 6 to Colorado and by 3 to Oregon, both on the road.  And they have wins over Cal by 24, Arizona by 17 and Arizona State by 7.  They are battle tested and ready to beat a team like USC.  The Trojans are 4-0 but could easily be 2-2.  They only beat Arizona State by 1 and Arizona by 4, the same two teams that UCLA beat by a combined 24 points.  The Bruins actually have the better stats too as they are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play while USC is outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.  The Trojans have also benefitted from being +6 in turnovers and forcing a whopping 12 of them in four games.  The Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  USC is 16-35-2 ATS in its last 53 road games overall.  The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall . The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 matchups.  Take UCLA.

7* Nevada/SJSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Nevada +1.5

The Key: Nevada has been the best team in the Mountain West this year in my opinion.  I’ve cashed on them several times already, and I’ll take them again tonight as they should not be dogs to San Jose State.  The Wolf Pack are outgaining their opponents by 81.0 YPG this year while San Jose State is outgaining opponents by 72.0 YPG.  And I like the situation for Nevada better here.  The Wolf Pack get to stay in Nevada as this game will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium.  The Spartans had to fly back from Hawaii over the weekend and now have to travel to Nevada too on this short week.  The Wolf Pack will be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.  Nevada is 10-1 SU in the last 11 matchups.  The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  Take Nevada.