Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Jets/Browns AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3 

The Key: The Browns are just 1-32-1 in all games over the past 3 seasons.  However, I believe they are favored for a reason here.  They took the Steelers to overtime and tied them.  They should have beaten the Saints last week in a 21-18 loss in which they lost 8 points by the kicker, who was subsequently cut.  This Browns defense is loaded.  Greg Williams loves to blitz, and blitzing rookie quarterbacks is a winning strategy in the NFL.  This will be Sam Darnold’s stiffest test yet after facing weak Lions and Dolphins defenses in his first 2 games.  The Browns have forced 8 turnovers thus far and will force a few more here against Darnold and company.  Cleveland’s offense takes care of the football behind Tyrod Taylor.  That will be the difference in this game.  Take Cleveland. 

7* AFC East Game of the Month on New York Jets -2.5 

The Key: I’m a believer in the Jets.  They beat the Lions 48-17 in Week 1 in a dominant defensive effort, an impressive debut of Sam Darnold, and a solid rushing game that produced 169 yards.  Now the Jets head home for their first home game this season, and the fans will be packing the stands in Week 2 to see their rookie QB first-hand.  And the Jets are only 2.5-point favorites in this matchup with the Dolphins, who I believe to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.  And the Dolphins were gassed in the 4th quarter of that 7-hour marathon against the Titans that was continually delayed by lightning last week.  They won 27-20, but now they hit the road for the first time.  The Jets are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days’ rest over the last 2 seasons.  The Jets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 road games.  Take New York. 

7* Ohio State/TCU Top 25 *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU +14 

The Key: TCU is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog under Gary Patterson.  And now Patterson is catching two touchdowns against Ohio State Saturday.  The Horned Frogs are licking their chops at the opportunity to face the Buckeyes.  Remember, a few years back Ohio State was the team that got into the four-team playoff to knock TCU out of it even though the Horned Frogs deserved to be in.  Patterson and company have not forgotten.  The Horned Frogs play too good defensively to not be competitive here.  And their offense is better than it’s getting credit for with Shawn Robinson at QB.  Even though this is technically a neutral field, it’s not far from TCU’s campus in Arlington and it will be a TCU-heavy crowd.  Take TCU. 

7* Ravens/Bengals AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore +1 

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are now 6-0 this season when you count the preseason.  They are not only winning, they are dominating.  They have won those 6 games by an average of nearly 17 points per game, including their 47-3 drubbing of the Bills last week.  They lost to Cincinnati in their season finale last year with a trip to the playoffs on the line.  It’s revenge time here for the Ravens, who are clearly the better team and simply just have to win this game to cover.  Take Baltimore. 

7* Rams/Raiders MNF *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -5.5 

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams should be one of the best teams in the NFL this season, parlaying 2017 Coach of the Year Sean McVay’s big season last year into another great one this year.  They added Brandon Cooks and now have as many weapons as any team in the NFL offensively.  Defensively, they added DT Suh and CB’s Peters and Talib.  They should also have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Raiders are in transition in Jon Gruden’s first season and won’t be that good this year.  They traded away their best defensive player in Kahlil Mack, and many teammates weren’t happy about it.  I just don’t think the Raiders have the offensive punch to hang with the Rams, or the defense to slow them down in Week 1 here.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* NFL Game of the Week on Denver Broncos -2.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2018.  They were 3rd in total defense last year and only got better this offseason with the addition of the 5th overall pick in Bradley Chubb.  Teams are going to regret passing up on him.  The pass rush and secondary are the strengths of the Broncos, and that makes this a great matchup for them against a suspect Seattle offensive line.  Russell Wilson is in line for a rough game Sunday in Denver.  The Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season under head coach Pete Carroll.  Take Denver. 

7* Georgia/South Carolina SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +10.5 

The Key: South Carolina finally has a team that is capable of competing with Georgia.  The Gamecocks believe they are good enough to challenge the Bulldogs for an SEC East title this season.  They get their chance to prove it on the field at home Saturday in what will be a hostile environment.  The Gamecocks are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  South Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Gamecocks are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  This is the best team that Will Muschamp has had yet at South Carolina, especially offensively with a great QB and two amazing playmakers at RB & WR.  Take South Carolina. 

7* TCU/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on TCU -22 

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have owned the SMU Mustangs in recent years.  TCU has won the last 5 meetings by more than 31 PPG on average.  And that should be about the margin of victory for this year’s matchup.  TCU is another Big 12 title contender with an elite defense and an improved offense under a new QB.  And SMU is certainly going to take a step back now that Chad Morris is gone after improving dramatically under him and actually making a bowl last year.  But they lost that bowl by 41 points with Sonny Dykes at the helm, and they were blasted by 23 points at North Texas in Week 1 in Dykes’ first official first game as head coach last week.  The Mustangs are in for a rude awakening tonight.  Take TCU. 

7* Miami/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -3 

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes won 10 games last year and are a team on the rise under Mark Richt.  They have 14 returning starters, including their starting QB and an elite defense.  LSU is headed in the wrong direction under Ed Orgeron.  And things aren’t getting any better for him this season with just 10 returning starters.  LSU is 1-8 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons.  Orgeron is 4-13 ATS in September games as a head coach.  LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 vs. ACC teams.  Take Miami. 

7* Washington/Auburn Top 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +2.5 

The Key: The Washington Huskies are one of the best teams in the country in 2018.  They return 17 starters from a team that won 10 games last year.  This is a statement game for them taking down an SEC team in Auburn on a neutral field.  The Huskies have the best unit on the field, which is their defense that gave up 16.1 PPG last year and returns 9 starters.  Their ability to shut down Jarrett Stidham and this Auburn offense will be the key to victory.  The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  Auburn is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games.  Take Washington. 

7* Jaguars/Steelers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -7 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers committed 5 turnovers and gave up two pick-6’s the first time these teams played.  But the Steelers have gone 10-1 since that loss to the Jaguars in Week 5.  And the only loss was to the Patriots on a controversial call that overturned a game-winning TD.  The Steelers are now basically fully healthy going into the playoffs for the first time in a long time.  They have a high-powered offense and an improved defense.  Blake Bortles won’t be able to keep up with a motivated Big Ben who will want to make amends for that 5-pick effort back in Week 5.  And Le’Veon Bell is primed for a huge game as he gets the bulk of the action in this game against a Jags run D that has been sub-par all season.  The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.  Their experience wins out in this one.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Titans/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -13

The Key: No analysis Saturday due to a funeral

7* Alabama/Georgia NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3.5 

The Key: It’s not often you’ll get the opportunity to back Alabama as this small of a favorite.  After all, they have been favored in 110 for their last 111 games with the only exception being 1-point underdogs at Georgia in 2015.  They blew out the Bulldogs 38-10 that year.  Alabama is equipped to stop Georgia considering the Crimson Tide have the best rushing defense in the country, giving up just 2.7 yards per carry.  Nick Saban is great at making his opponents play left-handed.  He will make Georgia’s freshman QB try and beat them through the air, and I don’t think he is capable of it.  Speaking of Saban, he’s 11-0 all-time against former assistants, winning by 29 PPG on average.  Kirby Smart is simply overmatched here.  Take Alabama. 

7* Panthers/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -6.5 

The Key: The Saints have owned the Panthers.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Carolina.  They have scores 31 and 34 points in their two meetings this season, outscoring the Panthers 65-34 in the process.  Their offense has had no trouble moving the ball and scoring points on Carolina’s defense.  That will continue here inside a hostile atmosphere in New Orleans.  Cam Newton went just 14-of-34 passing last week against the Falcons, and I don’t think the Panthers have the firepower on offense to keep up.  Newton has only thrown for over 185 yards twice in his last 9 games.  The Saints are 20-0 SU & 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 home games when they have a winning record.  It’s just a completely different atmosphere inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome when they are good.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Falcons/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +6 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons won 10 games this season despite playing the 4th most difficult schedule in the NFL.  The Rams had a great season but only had to face the 17th schedule.  And teams that played the tougher schedule in these wild card games are 41-19 straight up and 41-18-1 against the spread.  They are 24-5 straight up and 23-5-1 against the number when the difference is 10 or more.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Alabama/Clemson NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3 

The Key: Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide will be out for revenge from their loss to Clemson on the final play of the game as they were going for their 2nd consecutive national championship.  But now Clemson doesn’t have Deshaun Watson to dig them out of a hole again.  Saban is 10-2 straight up in revenge game as the coach of Alabama.  They had an extra week to get ready for this game because they finally didn’t make the SEC Championship.  Now they are getting healthy on defense for the first time in a long time.  Take Alabama. 

7* Bills/Dolphins AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -2.5 

The Key: The Bills must win to get into the playoffs.  They need some help, but first they must win.  The Dolphins can’t be trusted to offer much resistance with the way they are playing down the stretch.  They have gone just 2-7 in their last 9 games overall.  The Bills have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss coming to the Patriots on the road, and that game was tied 16-16 in the 3rd quarter and the Bills really got screwed by the refs having a touchdown called back that changed the complexion of the game.  The Bills just beat the Dolphins 24-16 at home a few weeks back.  Miami is 1-9 ATS off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons.  The Dolphins are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  I’ll side with the more motivated Bills in this matchup.  Take Buffalo. 

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Miami +6.5 

The Key: This will be a home game for the Miami Hurricanes played in the Orange Bowl down in Miami.  They had their two best performances of the season in home night games earlier this year.  They beat Virginia Tech 28-10 as 1.5-point favorites and Notre Dame 41-8 as 3.5-point underdogs.  I think they come forth with a huge effort here against Wisconsin to finish off their season the right way.  Miami will be the bet team Wisconsin has faced outside Ohio State as the Badgers played an extremely soft schedule.  And the Badgers were thoroughly outplayed by the Buckeyes in their lone loss of the season.  I think you can chalk up loss No. 2 for the Badgers here Saturday night.  Take Miami. 

7* Stanford/TCU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU -3 

The Key: I’m getting the better defense and the better offense in this game with TCU -3 here over Stanford.  I’m also getting a home-field advantage for the Horned Frogs as this game will be played in the Alamo Dome in San Antonio, Texas.  The Frogs give up just 17.6 PPG and 329 YPG which is ridiculously impressive in the Big 12 these days.  They also average 33.2 PPG and 414 YPG on offense.  Stanford only averages 32 PPG and 381 YPG on offense while giving up 21.5 PPG and 399 YPG on defense.  They are actually getting outgained by 18 YPG on the season, which is a sign that their 9-4 record is fraudulent.  Gary Patterson has had plenty of time to scheme and prepare for Stanford’s Bryce Love, which is their only real weapon offense.  The Horned Frogs only give up 100 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season.  Take TCU. 

7* Missouri/Texas NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas +3 

The Key: Missouri feasted on a weak schedule down the stretch to get to a bowl game.  After a 1-5 start, they reeled off 6 straight victories against Idaho, UConn, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Arkansas.  None of those 6 teams made a bowl games.  Texas went through the Big 12 gauntlet and played both USC and Maryland out of conference.  They went 6-6, but they were competitive in every game and 4 of their 6 losses came by 5 points or less.  Tom Herman is 15-1 ATS in his coaching career as an underdog.  The wrong team is favored in this game.  Take Texas. 

7* NIU/Duke NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois +7 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies have been one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country for years.  They kind of get overlooked this season because they ‘only’ went 8-4, but this is still a very good team that nearly won the MAC.  All four losses came by 10 points or less, including three by 7 points or fewer to Boston College (20-23), San Diego State (28-34), Central Michigan (24-31) and Toledo (17-27) with three of those losses coming on the road.  They also beat Nebraska on the road.  So they were competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against Duke here.  The Blue Devils only beat two bowl teams this season.  What gives NIU a shot to pull the upset tonight is the fact that its defense ranks 20th in the country, giving up just 20.8 PPG, 328 YPG and 4.6 YPP on the season.  The offense has been fine in scoring 30.2 PPG.  Duke’s offense has been suspect at 25.7 PPG.  This just has the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle, and that certainly favors the underdog getting 7 points.  The Huskies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take Northern Illinois. 

7* Steelers/Texans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +9 

The Key: I question the motivation of the Pittsburgh Steelers today.  They blew their game against the Patriots and lost a game that decided the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  And with the Jaguars losing yesterday, the Steelers can afford a loss today and still get a first-round bye by winning next week against the lowly Browns at home.  They will suffer a hangover from that loss to the Patriots last week.  Plus they don’t have two of their best players in Antonio Brown and Ryan Shazier.  And the Steelers have several close wins against bad teams of late as 6 of their last 7 games have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Bets on teams that were beaten by the spread by 49 or more total points in their last 7 games against an opponent that went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games are 39-13 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Texans couldn’t be more undervalued than they are right now off 3 straight double-digit losses.  Take Houston. 

7* NFL Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +7 

The Key: Two weeks ago you could have bet the Los Angeles Rams at a pick ‘em against the Tennessee Titans.  This line has moved 7 points since then.  That’s based solely on public perception.  The Rams are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 42-7 beat down at Seattle.  After basically clinching the division with that victory, I expect them to suffer a letdown this week against the Titans.  The Titans have since lost back-to-back games and that’s why the perception on them is down.  But they have everything to play for here at 8-6 as they are fighting for a playoff spot in the crowded AFC.  And they still have a chance to win the division if they can win out.  That’s why I expect the best effort of the season from the Titans in this game.  And we’re getting 7 points with them at home.  This is one of the best values I’ve ever seen in the NFL.  Take Tennessee.

7* Colts/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +14 

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens don’t have a potent enough offense to be laying 2 touchdowns to the Indianapolis Colts today.  In fact, they have one of the worst offenses in the entire NFL.  They have been living off turnovers this season, which is hard to sustain.  They are plus-17 in turnover differential.  But the Colts don’t turn the ball over as Jacoby Brissett has thrown just 7 interceptions on the season.  The Colts have committed 1 or fewer turnovers in 11 of their 14 games this year.  They aren’t going to give the Ravens the gifts they have been used to getting this year.  That’s going to make it hard for them to cover this massive spread.  The Colts have shown up every week and given a great effort for Chuck Pagano.  He is doing a good job, and it’s unfortunate that he may lose that job at the end of the season.  But it won’t be for a lack of fighting, and I expect his players to show up for him this week once again.  This is also a good spot for the Colts as they are rested after playing last Thursday against the Broncos, getting extra time to prepare, while the Ravens are on a short week after beating the Browns on Sunday.  Bets against home favorites a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a losing team are 70-38 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Pagano is 23-13 ATS off a loss as the coach of Indianapolis.  The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Ravens are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win by more than 14 points.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Indianapolis. 

7* Central Michigan/Wyoming NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +3 

The Key: The Wyoming Cowboys are overrated because of Josh Allen’s NFL prospects.  But this offense has been one of the worst in the country.  The Cowboys only average 22.3 points and 287 yards per game.  That’s not very good for a QB like Allen who was expected to be a top draft choice coming into the season.  Conversely, the CMU Chippewas are rolling offensively.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games behind an offense that has scored at least 31 points in all 5 games while averaging 41.2 PPG.  Miami transfer Shane Morris is lighting it up at the quarterback position, and the rushing offense has really gotten going too.  I like their momentum coming into this game and simply think they are the better team and shouldn’t be catching points.  Bets against favorites of 3 to 10 points off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record playing another winning team are 39-13 ATS since 1992.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Temple/FIU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Temple -6.5 

The Key: This is one of the bigger strength of schedule differences of any bowl game.  Temple play the much tougher slate of games.  And after struggling to start, they made the switch at quarterback and have finished strong.  They have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming to unbeaten UCF to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.  This Temple senior class has never won a bowl game and will be motivated to do so after getting upset by both Toledo and Wake Forest the past two seasons.  FIU went 8-4 this season, but only 2 of the wins came against bowl teams in Marshall and WKU.  Their 4 losses all came by 7 points or more, including 3 by 20-plus points against the better opponents they faced.  They lost by 44 to UCF and by 28 to FAU.  I think Temple is only a notch below those 2 teams.  Temple is 7-0 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards over the last 2 seasons.  The Owls are 15-3 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.  Temple is 11-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 58% completions or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last 3 years.  The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. C-USA teams.  The Golden Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.  FIU is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 non-conference games.  Take Temple. 

7* Falcons/Bucs NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -6.5 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons have done whatever they wanted to offensively in their last two meetings with the Bucs.  They won 43-28 in Tampa last year with 461 total yards, and they won 34-20 at home earlier this season behind 516 total yards.  The Bucs rank last in the NFL in total defense and won’t offer much resistance tonight either.  The Bucs are a mess at 4-9 on the season and haven’t had a bye all year.  They are tired, they are beat up, and they stand no chance of keeping this game close against Atlanta.  They are going to be without 2 of their best players on defense in DT Gerald McCoy and LB Lavonte David.  Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game this season.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.  The Bucs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC opponents, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South opponents.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Oregon/Boise State ABC *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon -7 

The Key: Oregon was 6-1 and averaged 51.2 points in games Justin Herbert started this season, while going 1-4 and scoring 15.0 points in games he was sidelined.  That’s all you need to know about this game.  The Ducks will hang a big number on the Boise State Broncos, and they won’t be able to keep up. Take Oregon. 

7* Broncos/Colts AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -2.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos actually have the No. 1 defense in the NFL based on a number of different statistical categories.  That is the difference in this game as the Colts have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, giving up 26.4 points and 375.3 yards per game.  And the Colts have one of the worst offenses as well, averaging just 16.3 points and 290.7 yards per game.  This is a complete mismatch, and even this stagnant Denver offense should be able to get going against this weak Colts defense tonight.  The Colts are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after scoring 17 points or fewer in 3 straight games.  Take Denver. 

7* Patriots/Dolphins AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +12 

The Key: The Patriots will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks here.  They also have to play a team they just beat by 18 points 2 weeks ago.  And they have their ‘game of the year’ against the Steelers on deck next week.  This couldn’t be a worse situation for the Patriots.  I think their 6-game ATS winning streak comes to an end Monday night.  They are being asked to lay too many points in Miami.  The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.  The Dolphins have won 2 of their last 3 home meetings with the Patriots outright.  Take Miami. 

7* NFL *Blowout* Game of the Month on Los Angeles Chargers -6 

The Key: The Redskins have nothing to play for after losing 14-38 to the Cowboys last week.  It was their last stand, and now they’re done.  And they’ve been hit so hard by injuries that they never had a chance anyway.  The Chargers have everything to play for as they are tied for first place in the AFC West with the Chiefs and Raiders.  They have won 6 of their last 8 and Philip Rivers has a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio in the six wins.  He’s playing at a high level, and he’s backed by a defense that is great against the pass and getting to the quarterback.  That makes this a bad matchup for the Redskins and Kirk Cousins.  The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games during Week 14.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Saints/Falcons NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -2 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are ‘all in’ tonight as they can’t afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoffs.  Look for them to get the job done at home against the Saints, who have beaten up on such a soft schedule of late.  The one time they stepped up on class?  They lost 20-26 on the road to the Rams two weeks ago only after scoring a touchdown in the closing seconds to make the score look closer than was.  Now this is another step up game for the Saints.  The Falcons get two starting cornerbacks back this week from injury, and that’s going to be huge for them.  The Saints are still banged up everywhere, especially on defense.  Bets on home favorites after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team 51% to 60% playing a winning team are 28-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Atlanta. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Cincinnati Bengals +6 

The Key: The season is on the line for the Cincinnati Bengals tonight.  At 5-6 they need a win to stay in the playoff hunt.  The Steelers are 9-2 and can afford a loss now.  Because they host the Patriots in a couple weeks, they can lose this game and win that one and still be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  I believe this line is way off as the Steelers were only 3.5-point favorites over the Bengals at home in their first meeting, and now they are 6-point road favorites in the second meeting.  That’s an 8.5-point adjustment.  And the Steelers have recent 3-point wins over both the Colts and Packers, so it’s not like they are playing at an extremely high level.  The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Baltimore Ravens -3 

The Key: This game is all about the matchup.  The Ravens have 14 sacks over the past month and have forced 13 turnovers in their past 4 games.  Mathew Stafford has been sacked 10 times in the past 3 weeks and they are starting to turn the ball over more.  Stafford is nursing an ankle injury that will have him far from full strength.  And there are injuries along the offensive line that are going to allow the Ravens to get after him for 4 quarters.  The Vikings put up 30 points and 408 total yards on this Detroit defense last week, and I think Joe Flacco and the offense will do enough to support their dominant defense in this one.  Bet on home favorites that have won 2 of their last 3 games coming in, who are winning 51% to 60% of their games and playing another winning team are 27-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Baltimore. 

7* Akron/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +21 

The Key: The Toledo Rockets cannot be 3-touchdown favorites in the MAC Championship Game.  They beat Akron 48-21 at home earlier this season for a 27-point victory.  But the Zips have improved since then and this game will be on a neutral field, and they’ll want revenge from that defeat.  They also have a more electric quarterback running the show now in freshman Kato Nelson, who has thrown 6 TD’s against 2 INT while leading the Zips to the MAC East title down the stretch.  He also adds a dual-threat element with 167 rushing yards and a score.  MAC dogs of 12 or more in championship games are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 tries.  The Zips are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Akron. 

7* Stanford/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on USC -3.5 

The Key: The USC Trojans have had 2 weeks to get ready for Stanford after receiving their bye last week.  The Cardinal are on a short week after a tough game against Notre Dame in which they trailed into the 4th quarter Saturday night before the Fighting Irish gave the game away with 3 turnovers.  The situation favors the Trojans, who have already beaten the Cardinal 42-24 while racking up over 600 yards of total offense against them in their first meeting this year.  The Cardinal are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take USC. 

7* AFC East Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins +17

The Key: After going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, the New England Patriots are becoming that public darling once again.  The betting public is going to line up to back them at any number.  That provides some line value to fade them as the Patriots are now 17-point favorites against the Dolphins this week.  This is their biggest favorite role of the season as they have only been a double-digit favorite one other time.  The Miami Dolphins have lost four straight and haven't covered a point spread in any of their last 5 games.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, especially after their 20-30 loss to the Bucs last week.  But they should have won that game as they lost the turnover battle 5-0 and managed 448 total yards.  Matt Moore will find success against this soft New England defense that gives up 402 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  The Patriots have a ton of injuries right now and will be without two starting offensive linemen in C David Andrews and OL Marcus Cannon.  Bets on road teams (MIAMI) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 23-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Miami.

7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Temple -3

The Key: The Temple Owls sit at 5-6 and one win short of a bowl berth.  They will be hungry to get that 6th victory here against Tulsa, a rebuilding team that is just 2-9 on the season.  The Owls should be bigger favorites here.  After beating both Navy and Cincinnati, they lost 19-45 to unbeaten UCF last week.  But that was a misleading final as they actually outgained the Knights and held them to 384 total yards, but they lost the turnover battle 5-0, which was the difference.  Tulsa's biggest game came last week when they fell just short 20-27 at South Florida.  They won't be nearly as hungry to win this week.  I think the line value is with Temple due to last week's results from these two teams as the scores weren't indicative of the kinds of games they were.  Temple is 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Tulsa is 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Owls are 11-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 425 yards/game or more over the last 3 seasons.  Take Temple.

7* Cal/UCLA NCAAF Friday Night Lights on California +7

The Key: The California Golden Bears are 7-4 ATS this season and have been consistently undervalued.  They gave Stanford all they wanted on the road last week as 14-point underdogs in a 14-17 loss.  They had a bye coming into that game, so they should still be fresh for UCLA here.  The Bruins have been overrated all season and are 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS.  It's likely Jim Mora will be fired at season's end.  The Bruins put a lot into their 23-28 loss at USC last week, and they won't be nearly as motivated to play Cal this week.  The Bruins will have played for a 7th straight week here and will be the more tired team on this short week.  The Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bruins are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.  Take California.

7* Giants/Redskins NFC East Game of the Month on New York +7.5

The Key: The Giants have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Redskins.  They haven't lost any of their last 10 meetings with the Redskins by more than 6 points.  The Redskins being 7.5-point favorites in this game is a big line mistake from the books, especially with all of the injuries they are dealing with right now.  The offensive line is banged up, the front 7 defensively is missing key players, and the top two running games in Chris Thompson and Rob Kelley are out for the season.  The Redskins are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take New York.

7* NFL Dog of the Month on Cleveland Browns +8

The Key: The Cleveland Browns have kept fighting.  They are trying to win games, and that was evident last week.  But once again they shot themselves in the foot despite outplaying the Lions for most of the game.  They had a 7-point lead late in the 3rd quarter, but Deshon Kizer got hurt and they went backwards on offense.  Kizer returned to lead them down the field, but threw an INT on first and goal from the 5 to lost 24-38 and fail to cover as 10-point underdogs.  They also had the clock run out on them on the 1-yard line on the final play before halftime.  They outgained the Lions 413 to 345 for the game.  The Browns have one of the better defenses in the NFL.  The key to stopping the Jaguars is stopping the run, and the Browns do a great job of that.  They are only giving up 86 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.  That's very good when you consider they have been trailing for the majority of their games, and the opponents have been wanting to run the football.  Bets on home dogs or PK who failed to cover 2 of their last 3, a team that's winning 25% or less of their games playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 71-33 ATS since 1983.  Take Cleveland.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas +38

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners are coming off two straight massive wins against their top two contenders in the Big 12.  They beat Oklahoma State 62-52 and TCU 38-20.  Off those two huge wins, it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown this week.  I'm not saying they'll lose to Kansas, but they certainly won't be focused enough to beat them by more than 38 points.  Kansas is improving down the stretch going 2-1 ATS in its last 3 games.  It only loss 20-30 at home to Kansas State as 25.5-point dogs and gained 482 total yards on the Wildcats.  The Jayhawks only lost 27-42 at Texas last week despite committing 4 turnovers.  That's a great showing against a good Texas defense.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Kansas.

7* EMU/Miami Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -2.5

The Key: The Miami Redhawks need to win their final 2 games to make a bowl game.  I like their outlook now with Gus Ragland back at quarterback.  He returned from injury last week to lead the Redhawks to a 24-14 home victory over Akron, throwing 3 touchdown passes in the process.  The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 3-7 and have no hopes of making a bowl game now.  The motivation and the situation really favor the Redhawks, who have outgained 8 of their 10 opponents this season.  That is the sign of an 8-2 team, not one that is just 4-6 right now.  Take Miami Ohio.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Buffalo Bills +3

The Key: The Buffalo Bills have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Bills are 4-0 at home this year while beating their opponents by 10.5 points per game.  Now Tyrod Taylor will have two key weapons back this week in Charles Clay and Kelvin Benjamin.  Clay still leads the team in receiving despite not playing since Week 5, so he is very important.  Benjamin will play in his first game in a Bills' uniform since being traded from Carolina.  The Saints are getting a lot of respect now after winning 6 in a row.  But their opponents have been lackluster to say the least.  They beat a banged-up Cam Newton and the Panthers, Jay Cutler and the Dolphins, Matt Stafford and the Lions, Brett Hundley and the Packers, Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears and a banged-up Jameis Winston and the Bucs.  They have only played one true road game in their last five games.  Now they have to head up to Buffalo and play outdoors in the cold weather, which hasn't been a good combination for Drew Brees in the past.  The Bills have extra time to prepare after playing the Jets last Thursday.  New Orleans is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 after covering 6 or 7 of its last 8 against the spread.  Buffalo is 26-12 ATS at home in its last 38 games during weeks 10 through 13.  Bets against favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight game are 27-7 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Buffalo.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah +1.5

The Key: Salt Lake City is one of the toughest places to play in college football.  Utah Utes' fans are right on top of you, and it makes is a heck of a home-field advantage.  Washington State is 1-2 in true road games with its only win coming against banged-up Oregon.  The Cougars were blown out by mediocre teams in California 3-37 and Arizona 37-58 in their other two road games.  Mike Leach is 0-9 ATS after having won 8 or more of his last 10 games in all games he has coached.  He has lost in this spot by 14.7 PPG on average.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Take Utah.

7* BYU/UNLV NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV -2.5

The Key: What more could possibly go wrong for BYU?  The Cougars are 2-8 on the season and just lost starting quarterback Tanner Mangum to a torn Achilles last game.  Their interest level is at an all-time low right now.  UNLV, on the other hand, is 4-5 with a legitimate shot to make a bowl game.  The Rebels have put themselves in this position by winning their last two.  They won 26-16 at Fresno State as 21.5-point dogs, and beat Hawaii 31-23 as 8-point home favorites.  Now they basically just have to win by a field goal to cover against BYU tonight.  The Cougars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Rebels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take UNLV.

7* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona +7

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals are looking at this game like a must-win.  They trail the Rams by two games and the Seahawks by one game within their own division.  They have to win this game if they want any hope of making the playoffs.  They had a bye two weeks ago, which should help keep them fresh after beating the 49ers 20-10 last week and working on this short week.  The Seahawks have a lot of injuries right now, most notably along the offensive line and to safety Earl Thomas, plus several players in the defensive front seven.  Given their current state, the Seahawks can't be laying a touchdown on the road here.  The Cardinals are 10-2 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less under Bruce Arians.  Take Arizona.

7* EMU/CMU MAC Game of the Week on Eastern Michigan -2

The Key: The Eastern Michigan Eagles have been a hard-luck team all season.  They are just 3-6, but all 6 of their losses came by 7 points or less and by a combined 23 points.  They took out their frustration with a 56-14 beat down of Ball State last week.  And they still have a very good shot to make a bowl game with winnable games against Central Michigan, Miami Ohio and Bowling Green still to come.  The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in all road games over the last 2 seasons.  They get the win and cover here against Central Michigan.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* Bowling Green/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls have been a hard-luck team this season.  They are just 3-6, but 4 of their 6 losses have come by 4 points or less.  They are clearly better than their record.  They still have a chance to make a bowl considering they host Bowling Green and travel to Ball State next week, which should get them to 5-6 with Ohio at home in their finale.  Ohio may have nothing to play for in that game.  So the outlook for getting to a bowl game is still pretty good.  Bowling Green is just 2-7 with its only wins coming against Kent State and Miami Ohio.  The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Take Buffalo.

7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +3

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 24 of their last 25 home meetings with the Lions dating back to 1992.  Now they are home dogs here Monday night.  Granted, Aaron Rodgers isn't playing, but Brett Hundley should be much better than he was in his first career start against the Saints.  He has had two weeks to get ready for the Lions and that will certainly help.  It will also help that the Packers have a healthy offensive line for the first time this season now.  Take Green Bay.

7* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -2

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals played in London two weeks ago.  They then had their bye last week.  Teams in this situation have been tremendous bets the first game back from their bye.  Teams returning from London off their bye are 9-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The 49ers are a mess right now with all of their injuries along the offensive line and receiver.  Joe Staley is out, and Trent Grown and Gary Gilliam are questionable.  Pierre Garcon is out for the season.  CJ Bethard never had a chance, and now they have Jimmy Garoppolo waiting in the wings.  Bethard gets thrown to the wolves one last time here Sunday.  Take Arizona.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State +10

The Key: Penn State is a bad spot here.  They are deflated after blowing a big lead to lose to Ohio State 39-38 last week.  And after back-to-back emotional games against Michigan and Ohio State, they won't have much left in the tank here.  Michigan State only has one Big Ten loss and is still very much alive to win the conference.  I think the Spartans come to play today and pull off the upset.  The Spartans have outgained 7 of their 8 opponents this year and are one of the most improved teams in the country.  Penn State is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.  Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  Take Michigan State.

7* UCLA/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -7

The Key: Josh Rosen has a hand injury and will be a game-time decision tonight.  I would like Utah at -7 whether or not he plays, but if he doesn't it would obviously he would be a huge bonus.  Rosen hasn't practiced all week.  The Utes are hungry for a victory after losing 4 straight against a brutal schedule of Stanford, USC, ASU and Oregon.  Playing in the friendly confines of Salt Lake City tonight should help them get back on track.  The Bruins are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and have been overvalued all year.  They don't play any defense, giving up 37.6 points per game overall, including 49.2 points per game on the road.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games overall.  Take Utah.

7* Bills/Jets AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +3.5

The Key: I like backing underdogs with divisional revenge in mind.  The Jets lost to the Bills 21-12 on the road back in Week 1 in their first meeting.  But this has been a much better Jets team since then.  The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall while going 3-3 straight up and their 3 losses coming to the Pats by 7, Falcons by 5 and Dolphins by 3.  So they have been competitive in every game with a chance to win late.  And getting 3.5 points here is a nice value as this game could easily be decided by a field goal.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  They are also 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss.  Give me New York.

7* Miami/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +10

The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks were expected to contend for a MAC title this year after going 6-0 over their final 6 regular season games last year.  They brought back 17 starts from that team.  So their 3-5 start comes as a bit of a surprise, and it has them getting zero respect from the books right now.  Conversely, Ohio is coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Bowling Green and Kent State and getting a lot of love.  But this is a team that lost to Central Michigan 23-26 at home prior to those two wins against MAC bottom feeders.  A big reason for the Redhawks' struggles is that they have been without starting QB Gus Ragland, who is a game-time decision tonight and may return since they had extra time before this game after last playing on November 21st.  The Redhawks still have a shot at a bowl game and will be fighting tooth and nail to get back to one.  The Bobcats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The Redhawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Take Miami Ohio.

7* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -7

The Key: The Denver Broncos have lost their two road games a a combined 47-16 this season.  Those were to the Bills and Chargers.  Now they face their toughest road test of the season and the best team they have faced all year.  And they are banged up at receiver and along the offensive line.  They get a hungry Chiefs team coming off consecutive losses and on extra rest after playing last Thursday, and Andy Reid is the best in the business when given extra time to prepare.  Take Kansas City.

7* NFC Game of the Year on San Francisco 49ers +13

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after their 6-1 start to the season.  It's time to fade away in this flat spot for them off their big win over the Redskins on Monday Night football, which makes it a short week for them as well.  It's also time to back the 49ers off their 30-point loss to the Cowboys as the public perception of them is way down right now.  But they had lost 5 straight games by 3 points or fewer prior to that blowout defeat, so they are clearly capable of being competitive.  Bets on dogs is 10.5 or more points off a loss y 14 points or more against an opponent who scored 30 or more points last game are 26-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take San Francisco.

7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -6.5

The Key: The Florida Atlantic Owls are absolutely rolling right now.  And the markets haven't caught up to them yet.  They still haven't caught up to them this week.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.  They get quick-strike touchdowns that their opponents can't get.  It's an FAU team that has hung 58 and 69 points in their last two games.  Western Kentucky has been getting too much respect in the betting markets all season with a 1-5-1 ATS record.  They have some awful performances against bad teams, including their 35-31 win over Old Dominion, the same ODU team that FAU waxed 58-28.  Take Florida Atlantic.

7* Dolphins/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Dolphins +3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins are the better team here over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Dolphins have managed a 4-2 record despite getting nothing out of their offense this season.  Well, that was until the 4th quarter last week when Matt Moore replaced an injured Jay Cutler and led the Dolphins to 17 points in the final period to beat the Jets 31-28.  Now Moore gets the nod again, and the offense will open up with him at the helm.  The Dolphins already have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they'll be up against one of the worst offenses in the Ravens.  The cluster injuries for the Ravens right now just aren't going to allow them to be competitive moving forward.  Take Miami.

7* Redskins/Eagles NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC at 5-1 right now.  They have a front seven defensively that is one of the best in the NFL, and their offense has really taken off this year with Carson Wentz.  I think Wentz has a big game against a Redskins defense that will be missing Josh Norman and Jonathan Allen, and possibly another corner in Breeland.  The Eagles beat the Redskins already 30-17 on the road and outgained them 356 to 254 in that game.  Now they are only laying 5 at home in the rematch.  I think they win by a TD or more with ease.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Conference USA Game of the year on Louisiana Tech -2.5

The Key: The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are in a good spot here coming off their bye week.  They are just 3-3 this season, but they have suffered two 1-point losses this season both on the road at South Carolina (17-16) and UAB (22-23).  But this team has been a great bet at home through the years.  LA Tech is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games off two straight unders.  Take Louisiana Tech.

7* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +3

The Key: The Oakland Raiders' season is on the line tonight.  They have dropped 4 straight to fall to 2-4 on the season.  They cannot afford to drop to 2-5 with another loss here or they'll be done.  They Chiefs are vulnerable right now as this is a tough scheduling spot.  They played on Monday night two weeks ago, and now have to play on Thursday night.  That means they will be playing their 3rd game in 11 days, which is as tough a spot as it gets in the NFL.  The Chiefs have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all 6 games this year.  Look for a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch from the Raiders here, which will be the key to victory for them.  Take Oakland.

7* Colts/Titans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -6.5

The Key: The Tennessee Titans are going to be hungry tonight following two straight losses.  But an asterisk has to get put on those losses because Marcus Mariota got hurt against the Texans two weeks ago, and he didn't play against Miami last week.  Now Mariota makes his return and will lead the Titans to a blowout victory over the hapless Colts.  The only two wins for the Colts this season came at home against the 0-6 Cleveland Browns and the 0-6 San Francisco 49ers by a combined 6 points.  In their 2 road games this year, the Colts lost 9-46 to the Rams and 18-46 to the Seahawks.  Adding to the Titans' hunger here is the fact that they have lost 11 straight meetings with the Colts, but most of those were with Andrew Luck at QB.  Take Tennessee.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5

The Key: Teams coming off Thursday NFL games are a perfect 8-0 against the spread this season.  The Bucs have had extra time to prepare now after losing 14-19 at home to the Patriots last Thursday in a game they easily could have won.  They get some key players back from injury on defense in Lavonte David and TJ Ward.  Now they get to face an Arizona Cardinals team that is coming off a 7-34 loss at Philadelphia and could easily be 0-5 this year if not for overtime wins against the Colts and 49ers.  The Cardinals have mass offensive line injuries right now and can't keep Carson Palmer upright.  Trading for Adrian Peterson won't solve their problems in the immediate future, and I think they're being overvalued because of that trade.  The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* MAC Game of the Year on Akron +13

The Key: I'm going to fade Western Michigan in this spot Sunday.  The Broncos are coming off a 7-overtime 71-68 victory at Buffalo.  I'm just not sure what they have left in the tank now, and not only do they have to win, but they have to win by 2 touchdowns to cover the spread against a game Akron team.  This is an Akron team that has been competitive in every game outside of its Power 5 opponents in Penn State and Iowa State.  But WMU didn't fare well in its two Power 5 games either against USC and Michigan State.  I really think this game will be closer than the oddsmakers expect.  The Zips are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Akron.

7* Eagles/Panthers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -3

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are going to be without two key pieces on offense.  Running back Wendell Smallwood and tackle Lane Johnson are both out.  You wouldn't think a tackle would make that much of a difference, but in Johnson's case it has.  Carson Wentz is 9-2 in games that Johnson plays, and 2-8 in games that he does not.  He has thrown 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions with Johnson, and 6 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions without him.  I love the way the Panthers are playing right now with back-to-back huge road wins over the Patriots and Lions.  Cam Newton finally looks fully healthy, and he has found some new favorite targets in Devin Funchess and Ed Dickson.  Funchess has 3 TD receptions in his last 2 games, and Dickson had 175 receiving yards against the Lions.  Ron Rivera is 32-13 ATS off a road game as the coach of Carolina.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Carolina.

7* Vikings/Bears NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +4

The Key: The Chicago Bears have won 8 of their last 9 home meetings with the Minnesota Vikings.  They are 2-0 ATS at home this season, nearly beating both the Falcons and Steelers.  The Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Teams coming off Thursday games are 7-0 ATS this season.  The Bears have had extra time to get Mitch Trubisky ready for his first start after playing last Thursday.  Take Chicago.

7* NFL Sunday Night Game of the Year on Houston Texans +1

The Key: Deshaun Watson is 2-1 as the starting quarterback of the Texans.  They could be 3-0 as their only loss came on the road at New England 33-36 as the Patriots scored a touchdown in the closing seconds to win.  The Texans bounced back with the most impressive performance of Week 4, winning 57-14 at home against the Texans.  Watson accounted for 5 total touchdowns, and the defense held the Titans to just 195 total yards while forcing 5 turnovers.  Now the Texans still get no love from the books as home dogs here to the Chiefs.  It's because the Chiefs are overvalued right now due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start, which included their miracle cover on Monday Night Football against the Redskins.  Now the Chiefs are on a short week and playing their 2nd straight National TV game.  The spot favors the Texans here.  Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 4 consecutive games.  Take Houston.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Texas A&M +27

The Key: Alabama has won its last two games by a combined score of 125-3.  It's safe to say the betting public is all over them now, which has inflated this number on the road against Texas A&M this week.  The Aggies could easily be 5-0 if not for blowing a massive lead against UCLA in the opener.  And Kevin Sumlin has found a way to be competitive against Nick Saban in recent years.  The Aggies have only lost by more than 19 points once in their last five meetings since 2012, and that was on the road.  Defensive coordinator John Chavis has turned this Aggies stop unit into a respectable one.  And what can keep Texas A&M in this game is a run defense that is only giving up 96 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season.  Bets on home dogs of 14.5 or more points off two or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season are 40-11 ATS since 1992.  Take Texas A&M.

7* Boise/BYU ESPN Friday Night Lights on BYU +9

The Key: The BYU Cougars are a prideful team and clearly aren't happy with their 1-4 start.  They gave the game away against Utah State by committing a ridiculous 7 turnovers last week.  They held Utah State to just 288 total yards to prove that their defense isn't broken.  Boise State just can't be laying this kind of price on the road tonight with what we've seen from them so far.  They lost their last game 23-42 at home to Virginia as 14-point favorites, failing to cover by 33 points.  The home team is 6-0 SU in the last 6 meetings.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Boise State.  The Broncos are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Boise State is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of its last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  Take BYU.

7* Louisville/NC State ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on NC State +4.5

The Key: Louisville is just a one-man show with Lamar Jackson.  He has a shaky offensive line, and now he's without his best receiver in Jaylen Smith due to a wrist injury.  That makes this a bad matchup against NC State, which has one of the more underrated defensive lines in the country and NFL talent up front.  Ryan Finley actually has a better QBR than Jackson this season.  Finley has thrown 9 touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year.  It's revenge time after NC State was blown out 13-54 at Louisville last season.  It was a clear flat spot for the Wolfpack after they had lost in overtime to Clemson 17-24 the previous week.  They didn't even show up.  They will Thursday night in front of a packed home crowd to claim their revenge.  Take NC State.

7* Redskins/Chiefs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Redskins +7

The Key: Don't look now but the Washington Redskins are 2-1 and dominating their opponents statistically.  They have outgained their opponents by 101.7 yards per game on the season.  Their defense is playing extremely well, giving up just 272 yards per game.  The Chiefs are getting too much respect due to their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start.  But they have only outgained their opponents by 28.3 yards per game.  They haven't been as dominant as their record and point differential would suggest.  Kansas City is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 3 consecutive games.  Washington is 43-24 ATS in its last 67 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Redskins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Chiefs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take Washington.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on San Francisco 49ers +7

The Key: The San Francisco 49ers have been very impressive in their last two games.  They only lost by a field goal in Seattle as two-touchdown dogs, and they should have beaten the Rams are 3-point dogs in a 2-point loss last Thursday.  And that's key because now the 49ers have extra rest and prep time to get ready for the Cardinals this week.  The Cardinals have to work on a short week and try and recover from their 17-28 loss to the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  I do not think the 49ers should be catching a touchdown given this favorable situation for them.  Arizona is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  San Francisco is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Arizona.  Take San Francisco.

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Fresno State -9

The Key: I think the Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have been undervalued in the markets, going 3-0 ATS in their 3 games this season.  They won 66-0 over Incarnate Ward, then had to play Alabama and Washington in back-to-back weeks.  So their bye week came at the perfect time last week, and now they'll be fresh and ready to go in their Mountain West opener.  Nevada is clearly not any good this season, going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS.  They lost at home to Idaho State as a 32.5-point favorite, then were punked 7-45 at Washington State the last two weeks.  The Wolf Pack come in on normal rest and won't be nearly as fresh as Fresno.  Jeff Tedford is one of the best offensive minds in college football, so look for Fresno to score at will here against this suspect Nevada defense.  Fresno is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Fresno State.

7* Miami/Duke ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Duke +7

The Key: Duke has been grossly underrated to start the season. The Blue Devils are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS, winning all four games by double-digits over NC Central (60-7), Northwestern (41-17), Baylor (34-20) and UNC (27-17).  I think they continue being underrated here as 7-point home dogs to Miami.  The Blue Devils have played the Hurricanes tough at home, not losing once by more than 7 points in their last 3 home meetings.  Take Duke.

7* Bears/Packers NFC North Game of the Month on Green Bay -7

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 12 of their last 14 meetings with the Chicago Bears.  They have also gone 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  They won 26-10 at home over the Bears last year.  The QB edge for the Packers here is worth at least 7 points.  If Aaron Rodgers and the Packers get up 7 or more, the Bears won't be able to come back because Matt Glennon has been terrible, and he has the worst set of receivers in the NFL.  The Bears can run the ball, but that's not going to work if they get behind.  I think the Packers are by far the safer side here.  Hanging with the Steelers and Packers in back-to-back games is just too much to ask for Chicago.  Take Green Bay.

7* Cowboys/Cardinals NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona +3.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have gone on the road the first two weeks and are 1-1.  There's no shame in that.  Now it's their home opener on the Monday night stage, and the Cardinals are primed for their best performance of the season.  Dallas has a ton of injuries in the secondary, and the Cardinals' strength is their passing attack, so Carson Palmer is primed for a big game here.  Trevor Siemian lit up Dallas' secondary last week, and he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  The Cowboys lost that game 17-42.  The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the NFL after finishing #2 in total defense last year.  They will be able to slow down Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot here Monday.  Dogs are 12-3 ATS so far in Week 3, and I think this is another live home dog here tonight.  Bruce Arians is 6-0 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less as the coach of Arizona.  Arians is 7-0 ATS against NFC East teams as the coach of the Cardinals.  Take Arizona.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Houston Texans +14

The Key: The New England Patriots have too many injuries right now to be favored by 14 over the Houston Texans.  They have a handful of skill players on offense who are banged up, and the injuries on defense have led to the Patriots giving up 31 points, 483 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play.  Their defense was terrible in the preaseson too.  I think Deshaun Watson can make enough plays to keep this game close, while the Texans' defense remains one of the elite units in the league.  Plus Watson gets some key weapons back this week in TE Ryan Griffin and WR Bruce Ellington.  Also CB Jonathan Joseph is expected to return from injury.  Take Houston.

7* Arkansas/Texas A&M SEC West Game of the Year on Arkansas +3

The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming off a bye week.  So they've had two full weeks to get ready for Texas A&M.  And boy, do they ever want revenge on the Aggies.  They have lost 5 straight meetings with Texas A&M over the last 5 seasons, including two of the last three in overtime.  The Aggies are clearly down this season and vulnerable, so this is their chance to have their revenge.  They lost at UCLA in the opener, only beat Nicholls State 24-14 as 37.5-point favorites, and actually trailed UL Lafayette 21-14 at halftime last week as 23.5-point favorites.  Arkansas did lose to TCU, but the Horned Frogs are one of the better teams in the country, so that's not a bad loss.  The Aggies are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.  Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.  Take Arkansas

7* Rams/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +3

The Key: One of the biggest advantages in professional sports is home teams on Thursday night games.  The short week for road teams is so tough because they have to travel and have almost zero time to prepare.  I think the 49ers were impressive last week in their 12-9 road loss to the Seahawks as 14-point dogs.  They have been able to get the running game going behind Carlos Hyde, who is averaging 7.0 yards per carry this season.  The Rams gave up over 200 rushing yards to the Redskins last week.  The 49ers have won 3 straight meetings with the Rams and are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  They were home dogs to the Rams last season, and won 28-0.  Take San Francisco.

7* Cowboys/Broncos Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -2.5

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys went 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in meaningful road games last season where they played all of their starters.  They dominated on the road, beating the likes of the Packers and Steelers along the way.  The thing about the Cowboys is that their style of play travels well.  Teams that can run the football can win on the road.  And the Cowboys are probably the best in the league in that aspect.  Plus, Dak Prescott doesn't make critical mistakes and takes care of the football.  And the Cowboys should be able to run on a Broncos defense that ranked 28th in the NFL against the run last season.  Jason Garrett is 15-5 ATS in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of the Cowboys.  Take Dallas.

7* Texas/USC Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas +16

The Key: Tom Herman has been an underdog 11 times in his career as a coordinator for Ohio State and as a head coach at Houston.  His teams have gone a PERFECT 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in those 11 games.  The Longhorns are flying under the radar now after getting upset by Maryland in the opener.  They got right with a 56-0 win over San Jose State last week.  Look for USC to have a bit of an emotional letdown here after their huge win over USC last week.  Take Texas.

7* Chargers/Broncos AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3

The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers should be one of the more improved teams in the NFL this season.  They had a plethora of injuries last season that held them back during their 5-11 season.  But they lost 9 games by 8 points or less, so they had their chances in most games.  Philip Rivers has some healthy weapons in Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen entering 2017.  They are far and away the better offensive team in this matchup, and their defense isn't far off from the Broncos.  The Broncos even signed Brock Osweiler this offseason, which just goes to show how rough their QB situation really is.  The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Week 1 games.  Los Angeles is 8-2-4 ATS in its last 14 trips to Denver.  Take Los Angeles.

7* AFC North Game of the Month on Baltimore Ravens +3

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens will have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season.  That was on display in the preseason as they held their 4 opponents to a total of 32 points, or an average of 8.0 points per game.  The Bengals will be missing 2 starters on defense in Adam Jones and Vontaze Burfict, which are 2 of their best players.  The Ravens are underrated right now because Joe Flacco missed the preseason.  But he's a veteran who doesn't need to practice time to come in and flourish.  The Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC North foes.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Baltimore.

7* Stanford/USC Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Stanford +5.5

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal simply own the USC Trojans.  They have gone 7-2 SU in the last 9 meetings, and both of their losses came by exactly 3 points.  That's important when you consider this spread is 5.5.  David Shaw is not only 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games as an underdog, but also 8-2 SU in those games.  USC did not look good against Western Michigan in the opener in a 49-31 win as they pulled away in the 4th quarter.  Stanford couldn't have looked better in its 62-7 win over Rice.  Plus the Cardinal have had 2 weeks off since that game to get ready for USC.  The Trojans allowed a ridiculous 263 rushing yards to Western Michigan.  The Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to USC.  Take Stanford.

7* GA Tech/Tennessee ACC vs SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -3

The Key: Tennessee has a big edge in talent over Georgia Tech.  Butch Jones is a master recruiter and he has finally put the Vols back on the map.  They were the best team in the SEC East last season as they beat Florida, but played a brutal schedule and suffered a couple of upsets in letdown games.  Georgia Tech lost its best triple-option QB maybe ever in Justin Thomas to graduation.  That offense won't click as well without him.  The Vols are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  They have dominated the bowl games under Jones, and they will make easy work of this middle of the road ACC team here Monday night.  Take Tennessee.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Illinois -6.5

The Key: The Illinois Fighting Illini were in a clear rebuilding year last season under Lovie Smith.  They went just 3-9 and now are getting no attention heading into 2017.  These are the teams I like to back.  Smith will be more successful in year two.  The Fighting Illini open as only 6.5-point favorites over a middle-of-the-pack MAC team.  The Illini clearly have more talent, and I look for that to show on the field here Saturday.  This defense returns 4 of the top 5 tacklers from last year and will be better.  The offense should hold its own, especially on the ground with both Kendrick Foster (5.7/carry) and Reggie Corbin (6.1/carry) back to lead the way.  Leading receiver Malik Turner is back, as is Mike Dudeck, who has over 1,000 receiving yards as a freshman but missed last season with a torn ACL.  Ball State only has 4 starters back on defense after giving up 30.1 points and 470 yards per game last season.  The Illini should have plenty of success on the ground and through the air against their soft D.  They'll easily win by a TD or more.  Take Illinois.

7* NMSU/ASU Non-Conference *BAILOUT* on Arizona State -22

The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils are flying under the radar heading into 2017.  They had won 10 games in back-to-back seasons in 2013 and 2014, but slipped to 6-7 in 2015 and 5-7 in 2016.  They opened 5-1 last year but lost their final 6 games.  But this is a team that returns 13 starters after having just 10 back last year.  The offense will be one of the best in the Pac-12, and the defense cannot be as bad as it was a year ago.  Following those 6 straight losses to close out last season, the Sun Devils have been hungry all offseason, and they're prepared to take out their frustration on lowly New Mexico State tonight.  The Aggies went 3-9 last season.  When they stepped up in competition they did not fare well.  They lost 42-62 at Kentucky, 6-52 at Troy, 23-55 at Idaho, 10-52 at Texas A&M and 7-37 to Appalachian State.  They have a lot back but this team is simply outclassed here.  Take Arizona State.

7* Hawaii/UMass NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on UMass -3

The Key: Last year UMass had just 9 returning starters and went from playing an easy MAC schedule to a much tougher Independent schedule.  They went just 2-10, but were only outgained by 97 yards per game.  They are a much more veteran squad this year with 15 returning starters and the schedule gets easier.  The Minutemen played Hawaii in the regular season finale last year.  The Warriors needed a win to make a bowl, so they had a lot more to play for.  But UMass gave them everything they wanted at Hawaii and only lost 40-46.  Now they get their shot at revenge right away in 2017, this time at home.  Amazingly, Hawaii is 1-23 in true road games over on the mainland over the past 4 seasons.  The Warriors are getting too much love here from oddsmakers.  Take UMass.

7* ATL/NE Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -3

The Key: The Patriots have been on a mission all season to take out their frustration on the NFL pertaining from Deflategate that led to Tom Brady's 4-game suspension.  All they've gone is taken out their frustration on opponents to the tune of a 16-2 SU & 15-3 ATS record on the season.  Somehow they have been undervalued all season, and they continue to be in the Super Bowl as only 3-point favorites over the Falcons.  The Falcons haven't seen a defense as good as the Patriots, which leads the league in scoring defense at 15.7 points per game.  Both offenses are elite, but the difference in this game is going to be the Patriots' ability to get stops.  The Falcons give up 24.8 points and 367 yards per game on the season.  Tom Brady has only thrown two interceptions all season, and the team that has won the turnover battle has gone 37-4 in the Super Bowl.  The Patriots winning the turnover battle and having the better defense is the difference Sunday.  The Patriots are 10-1 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play over the last 3 seasons.  Take New England.

7* GB/DAL NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas Cowboys -4

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys pummeled the Green Bay Packers 30-16 on the road in their first meeting this season.  I see Green Bay having the same issues in the rematch, especially defensively.  The Cowboys went for 424 total yards and 191 rushing, absolutely dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  The team that wins the line of scrimmage usually proves victorious, and that will be the formula for the Cowboys again just as it has been all season.  And the Packers have several key injuries at receiver and in their secondary.  The Cowboys are very healthy coming into this game off their bye.  The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Dallas.  Take Dallas.

7* SEA/ATL NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -4.5

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons have the best statistics in the NFL this season.  They outgain their opponents 6.7 to 5.6 yards per play on the year, which is the best differential in the league.  Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns in his first meeting against the Seahawks in Seattle, a 24-26 loss.  But I think Ryan and company get their revenge at home this time around.  The Seahawks have only won 3 road games all season while scoring just 16 points per game away from home.  Take Atlanta.

7* Alabama/Clemson National Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Clemson +6.5

The Key: The Clemson defense just shut out a very good Ohio State offense.  I think the Tigers have the front seven that can make life very difficult for Jalen Hurts and company.  The Crimson Tide basically did nothing outside of a 68-yard run by Bo Scarbrough against Washington last week in which he broke like 10 tackles.  The offense only accounted for 17 points.  Hurts only threw for 57 yards in the win.  Clemson put up 550 yards on Alabama's defense along with 40 points last year.  Deshaun Watson is rolling right now and ready to cap off his Clemson career with a National Title.  Dabo Swinney certainly knows how to coach in big games, winning 5 of his last 6 bowl games while going 6-0 ATS despite being an underdog in all 6 contests.  The lone loss was that 5-point setback against Alabama last year.  I don't think Alabama can win by a TD or more, and I actually think Clemson wins this game outright, so a play on the money line would be a good bet as well.  Take Clemson.

7* Lions/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -8

The Key: Matthew Stafford is 1-24 in his career on the road against a team that finished the season with a winning record.  He simply has to do too much for the Lions, who are below-average at basically every other position on the field, especially defensively.  They have allowed 73 points and over 800 yards of total offense in back-to-back losses to the Packers and Cowboys.  The Lions are 0-5 against playoff teams this season, and 9-2 against everyone else.  They have trailed in the 4th quarter in 15 of 16 games this year.  I look for a big effort from the Seahawks here, who are 9-0 in their last 9 playoff home games.  They are 7-1 at home this season.  Anything short of a double-digit victory for the home side would be a shocker.  Take Seattle.

7* USC/Penn State Rose Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -7

The Key: The USC Trojans come into this game playing as well as anyone in the country.  They have won 8 straight with 7 of those victories coming by at least 13 points.  They have outgained 9 straight opponents, Sam Darnold is one of the best quarterbacks in the land, and the defense has really stepped up.  Penn State has overachieved this season.  It was a good story, but this team doesn't have the horses to matchup with an athletic, talented team like USC.  And the Big Ten is clearly overrated as we just saw their top two teams in Ohio State and Michigan get beat 31-0 by Clemson and by Florida State, respectively.  And I don't believe Penn State is as good as either Ohio State or Michigan, and USC is every bit as good if not better than Clemson and Florida State.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Take USC.

7* AFC West Game of the Month on Oakland Raiders +2

The Key: The Oakland Raiders have a lot to play for this week.  They need to win to clinch the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.  They also have an outside shot at getting the No. 1 seed if they win, but that would require a Patriots loss.  Either way, they want this victory.  Few backup quarterbacks can step into a situation and be as successful as Matt McGloin is going to be for the Raiders.  That's because he has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, perhaps the best duo at receiver in the league in Cooper and Crabtree, and plenty of help from the running game.  He has started in this league before and will be up to the challenge.  While the Raiders want this game badly, the Broncos could care less.  They were just eliminated from the playoffs last week with their ugly 33-10 loss to the Chiefs.  That came a week after another ugly 16-3 home loss to the Patriots.  They won their Super Bowl last year, and the offseason can't get here soon enough for these players.  The Broncos are going to be sitting some key starters on defense due to injury in S T.J. Ward, DE Derek Wolfe, LB Demarcus Ware and LB Brandon Marshall.  That's only going to make McGloin's job even easier.  The Raiders rushed for 218 yards in their 30-20 win over the Broncos earlier this season.  They should find plenty of success on the ground against a Denver defense that gives up 135 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season.  Oakland is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.  The Raiders are 9-1 ATS in all games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Oakland.

7* Washington/Alabama Playoff *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +14.5

The Key: Chris Petersen is one of the best head coaches in the country that nobody talks about.  He has been a great bet in the underdogs role.  Petersen is 6-0 ATS as a dog with two or more weeks to get ready for an opponent.  He will give the Huskies their best chance to beat the Alabama Crimson Tide.  The Huskies rank in the Top 10 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They are the best team that the Crimson Tide will have played.  This is too many points in a game that I think goes right down to the wire.  Take Washington.

7* Friday NCAAF Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +14

The Key: The Sun Belt has shown extremely well in these bowl games.  They are 4-1 as a conference.  Appalachian State beat Toledo as underdogs, Arkansas State topped UCF 31-13 as dogs, Idaho won 61-50 over Colorado as 15-point dogs and Troy beat Ohio 28-23 and covered as 4.5-point favorites.  The only loss was LA-Lafayette as 6.5-point dogs in a 7-point loss to Southern Miss.  I think South Alabama is getting way too many points here against Air Force.  The Jaguars have pulled some huge upsets already this season.  They beat Mississippi State 21-20 as 28-point road dogs, and they also upset San Diego State 42-24 as 19.5-point home dogs.  They are fully capable of beating Air Force here, let alone staying within two touchdowns.  Air Force is 0-6 ATS vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last 2 seasons.  I think the extra time to prepare will have the Jaguars ready for the Falcons' triple-option.  Take South Alabama.

7* Indiana/Utah Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah -6

The Key: The Utah Utes have been a great bowl bet for years.  They have gone 15-4 in their last 19 bowl games overall.  They are 9-1 under Kyle Whittingham alone.  The Utes have beat up on the Big  Ten as well, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six matchups with that conference.  Indiana barely made a bowl game at 6-6 after beating Purdue 26-24 in the season finale despite being 21-point favorites.  The Hoosiers lost their head coach in Kevin Wilson, and there is clearly some distractions around the program because of it.  Utah went 8-4 this season with its 4 losses coming by a total of 19 points.  The Utes were one of the best teams in the Pac-12 this year.  Take Utah.

7* Baylor/Boise Cactus Bowl *BAILOUT* on Baylor +7.5

The Key: We are getting extra points here with Baylor because they have lost 6 straight games coming into the bowl season.  There were getting extra points in their finale against West Virginia as well, covering as 17-point dogs in an impressive 3-point road loss.  Boise State is once again laying too many points as it has been all season.  The Broncos are just 3-9 ATS in their 12 lined games this year.  The Bears will be the more talented team on the field in the Cactus Bowl.  They boast the nation's No. 5 ranked offense at 543 yards per game.  They can run the football as well as almost anyone, and Boise State allows 180 rushing yards per game despite playing such a soft schedule.  Boise is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.8 or more yards per carry.  Baylor averages 250 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  Take Baylor.