Sports Picks & Predictions

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs over Auburn.  The Tigers upset previously undefeated Alabama last week.  But off that huge upset win, we will fade Auburn in this SEC Title game.  Indeed, since 1980, college football teams have generally had big letdowns away from home following wins over previously undefeated teams (with a 5-0 or better record), provided they weren't favored by 3+ points in that previous game, including an 11-29 ATS mark as a favorite of less than 15 points vs. .500 or better competition.  Since 2002, Auburn's won just five of the 16 meetings between these two SEC clubs, including a 1-6 SU/ATS record away from home.  Take the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday.  ELITE INFO WINNER!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers over Georgia Southern.  After starting the season 0-9, the Eagles are off back to back upset wins over South Alabama and Louisiana Lafayette.  And they've now been installed as a road favorite in their final game of the season.  Unfortunately for the Eagles, favorites (or PK) off back to back upset wins, are an awful 3-21 ATS in their final game of the season, including 0-7 ATS if they weren't a winning team.  Take the points with Coastal Caroiina.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Oklahoma.  It's often said that defense wins championships.  And, based on my data, there's a whole lotta truth in that saying.  In this match-up, the Horned Frogs own the better defense, and it's not close.  TCU is giving up just 15.6 ppg, while Oklahoma's stop unit is 10 points worse.  And it's not a wise move to lay points in a post-season game to a much better defensive club.  Indeed, College Football teams getting more than a field goal have covered a whopping 68.4% since 1980 if their defense was at least 9.2 points better than their opponent's, including a perfect 9-0 ATS since 2009.  Grab the points with the Horned Frogs.  HIGH NOON HANGING.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Wisconsin.  This rivalry game -- at 127 meetings, it's the most played in Division 1 -- has been dominated by the Badgers of late, as they've won 13 straight years.  However, don't be surprised if the Golden Gophers stun Wisconsin with an upset win on Saturday.  Both teams, of course, need to win this game.  Minnesota needs one more win to attain eligibility for a Bowl game, while Wisconsin still has hopes of reaching the 4-team College Football Playoff.  Unfortunately for the Badgers, undefeated teams, with a 5-0 or better record, have covered just 35.7% over the last 38 years when priced as a road favorite from -11.5 to -21.5 points against a losing, revenge-minded foe.  Even worse for Wisconsin:  it's just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS its last seven when it was playing on the road with an undefeated record (of 5-0 or better).  And it's just 2-10-1 ATS since 1984 vs. the Gophers when laying 12+ points.  Take Minnesota.  Big 10 Conference Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Virginia Tech.  We played on the Cavaliers last week, and easily got the cash when Virginia covered the point spread "wire to wire" at Miami.  Now, they return home for their final game of the regular season, and they'll take on their cross-state rival from Blacksburg, Virginia Tech.  We'll grab the points with the Cavaliers, as they're 31-19-1 ATS their last 51 as home underdogs, and also 14-0 ATS their last 14 as single-digit underdogs, if they're off a loss, and play with revenge.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 am, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Western Michigan.  The Rockets have won six of their last seven, and have covered five of their last six.  Last week's victory at Bowling Green was one of their most impressive wins of the season, as they blew out the Falcons, 66-37, as a 16.5-point favorite.  Toledo is a super 25-1 ATS as a favorite of 21 or less points, if Toledo is off a win by 17+ points, and it covered that previous game by 6+ points.  Take the Rockets.  MAC Conf. Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Bowling Green Falcons + the points over Eastern Michigan, as Bowling Green falls into a 93-56 ATS "stats-based" system of mine.  The Falcons have been installed as double-digit road underdogs, but they're a fantastic 50-30 ATS on the Mid-American Conference road.  And, yes, it's certainly true that Bowling Green was blown out by 29 points last Wednesday at home, vs. Toledo.  However, the Falcons are 12-3 ATS off a conference blowout loss by 21+ points.  Meanwhile, the Eagles upset Miami-Ohio in Oxford last week.  Unfortunately, they're a wallet-busting 19-36 ATS off a straight-up win.  Bowling Green has won 9 of the last 11 straight up in this series, including 2-0 SU/ATS the last two, here, in Ypsilanti.  Take the points with the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Arizona.  Oregon QB Justin Herbert has been upgraded to 'probable,' which is surely a welcome sight for the team.  After all, without their 1st string QB under center last week, the Ducks struggled to score, and lost 38-3 at Washington.  They'll host the Arizona Wildcats at Autzen Stadium on Saturday.  And Arizona comes into this contest off a 21-point win (49-28) over Oregon State.  Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they fall into a negative 15-45 ATS system of mine which goes against teams off 21+ point wins vs. foes off 21+ point losses.  Moreover, the 'Cats are a poor 6-15 ATS their last 21 as an underdog, and 10-26 ATS on the road after scoring 37+ points in their previous game.  Finally, Oregon is 44-22 ATS in 'win situation' games with a pointspread of 3 or less.  Lay it.  Pac 12 Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Army.  These two teams last faced off against each other in the Heart of Dallas Bowl game, on December 27, at the Cotton Bowl.  Army triumphed, 38-31, in that game.  But I look for the Mean Green to avenge that Bowl game defeat.  Indeed, home teams have cashed 75% over the past 17 years when playing with revenge from a post-season defeat, so long as they're not laying 5.5 or more points.  Take North Texas.  Non-Conf. Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans minus the points over Maryland.  The Spartans will be playing their final home game of the season.  And they've dominated over the past 30 years in their final home games, with a 22-8 SU and 23-7 ATS record!  The Spartans also play with revenge from an upset loss sustained last season in College Park.  MSU was favored by 2.5, but lost to the Terrapins, 28-17.  However, Michigan State's a solid 6-1 ATS its last seven when playing with revenge from an upset loss, while Maryland's an awful 2-11-1 ATS its last 13 (and 0-5 ATS on the road) if it upset its opponent the previous season!  Take Michigan State.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over UAB.  The Gators have had the proverbial "season from hell."  It started off well enough, as the Gators won their first three conference games vs. Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  But an onslaught of injuries and a resignation by their head coach, have made Gator fans want to put this season it the rear view mirror.  Florida's now lost its last five games, and has failed to cover its last four.  Still, I love Florida to get an easy win on Saturday vs. a UAB squad coming into Gainesville off an upset win over Texas San Antonio.  Over the last 30 years, home favorites of more than nine points, off four or more losses, have covered 73.6% vs. foes off a win.  And UAB is a wallet-busting 0-14 ATS on the road vs. .600 (or worse) opponents if UAB defeated a conference foe in its previous game.  Take Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over Navy.  Notre Dame's 5-game win streak in this series was snapped last year when the Midshipmen upset the Irish, 28-27, as a 7.5-point underdog.  But I love Brian Kelly's men to avenge that defeat, and especially since they're coming off a 41-8 loss to Miami-Florida last week.  This also will be Notre Dame's final home game of the season, and NCAA favorites of more than 15 points have cashed 78% since 1980 in their final home game, if they were off a 20-point (or worse) defeat!  Lay it.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles + the points over South Alabama.  We played against Georgia Southern last week, and got the cash with Appalachian State, which defeated the Eagles, 27-6, as a 17.5-point favorite.  That loss lowered Georgia Southern's season record to 0-9 straight-up and 2-6 ATS.  But I love the Eagles in this home underdog role, on Saturday.  They catch South Alabama coming off a big upset win at home over Arkansas State, as a 13-point underdog.  And, unfortunately for the Jaguars, teams off home upsets as a 13-point (or greater) underdog have had huge letdowns in their next game as road favorites.  Since 1980, they've covered just 32.1% of their games.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Sun Belt Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs minus the points over Rice.  The Owls are 1-9 on the season, with eight straight losses, and are clearly playing out the string.  Old Dominion, on the other hand, is not playing out the string.  It's 4-6, but it's won each of its past two games, including last week's 37-30 upset win at Florida International, as a 10-point underdog.  I look for Old Dominion to keep its momentum going, at home, on Saturday, as teams (like Rice) that haven't won more than 1 game on the season, have cashed just 32% (at Game 11 forward) vs. conference foes off an upset win.  Take the Monarchs.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Rutgers.  Both of these teams are 4-6 on the season, but going in opposite directions in Las Vegas.  The Scarlet Knights have covered each of the last five games, while the Hoosiers are on an 0-7 ATS skein.  But before you open up your wallet for the "hot" Scarlet Knights, consider that teams off five straight ATS losses have covered 73% vs. foes off five straight ATS wins over the past 22 years!  That doesn't bode well for Rutgers on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that Rutgers has covered just 5 of 20 games vs. Conference foes playing their final home game of the season.  After this home game, the Hoosiers will play Purdue on the road.  And Indiana needs to win both to qualify for a Bowl game.  Take Indiana minus the points.  NCAA Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Miami.  In its last game, Miami upset the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and the Hurricanes are now ranked #2 in the Country.  Unfortunately, they likely will have a letdown on Saturday vs. the Cavaliers.  Indeed, undefeated teams, with an 8-0 (or better) record have gone 1-10 ATS off an upset win, if priced between -6 and -21 points.  The Cavaliers are also 5-1 ATS their last six games at Miami, while college football teams are a horrid 12-27-2 ATS as a favorite (or PK) after upsetting the Fighting Irish in their previous game.  Grab the points.  NCAA High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Buffalo.  The Cardinals have lost their last seven games, straight-up, and failed to cover the pointspread in their last eight.  And such a losing streak will keep most of the bettors off of them, here, in this game.  But I love them as a home underdog vs. Buffalo, as Mid-American Conference home underdogs, off a SU/ATS loss (and an ATS loss two games back), have cashed 64% over the past 20 years vs. conference foes off a win!  And the Cardinals also fall into a super 68.3% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on long losing streaks.  Take Ball State + the points.  MAC Game of the Week! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Arizona State.  The Sun Devils come into Pasadena off a 41-30 win vs. Colorado last Saturday, and are now 5-4 this season.  Meanwhile, Jim Mora's Bruins are 4-5 on the season after getting blown out by Washington (44-23) and Utah (48-17) in their last two games.  But UCLA's five losses have all come away from home, where the Bruins are 0-6 ATS their last six, and 2-11 ATS their last 13.  UCLA is back home on Saturday night, which bodes well for it, as UCLA has won all four of its home games this season!  UCLA is also a solid 44-27, 62% ATS at home when not laying more than 7 points.  Finally, revenge-minded favorites off back to back 21-point losses have cashed 79% since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take UCLA.  NCAA Roadkill Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Alabama.  Certainly, Alabama deserves its #1 ranking, as it's 9-0, with a 31.11 ppg margin of victory.  On the other hand, the Crimson Tide are below .500 against the spread, which indicates they're a tad overvalued in Vegas.  In contrast, Mississippi State has rewarded its bettors with a 6-3 ATS record to go along with its 7-2 SU record.  And that doesn't bode well for Nick Saban's troops on Saturday, as undefeated teams (at Game 8 forward) have covered just 1 of 15 games as double-digit road favorites vs. opponents with a winning SU and a winning ATS record!  Even better:  Miss State has cashed 83% at home over the past 38 years if they were off a win the previous week, and are now getting double-digits.  Finally, Miss State also falls into 32-1, 47-7, 84-32 and 21-0 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Bulldogs + the points.  SEC Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Clemson.  Last week, we played against Clemson, and got the $$$ with NC State, as a +7.5-point underdog.  And we'll go against the Tigers once again this week, as they fall into a negative 27-65 ATS system of mine.  Florida State is obviously having a "down" year, with a 3-5 record on the season (and 0-6-2 ATS), though it did get into the win column last week with a 27-24 triumph vs. Syracuse.  The Seminoles also received some welcome news this week when they learned that running back Jacques Patrick will be able to get back onto the field on this Saturday (after missing extended time with a knee injury).  We'll grab the points with Florida State, as winless ATS teams, with an 0-4 (or worse) ATS record, are 15-0 ATS since 2001 off a straight-up win if playing a winning opponent.  Take the Seminoles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Virginia.  We played against Louisville in its last game, a blowout loss in Winston-Salem against Wake Forest.  The Cardinals had last week off to recover from that defeat, and that rest should serve them well against an unrested Cavaliers squad which is coming off a huge upset win vs. Georgia Tech.  Unfortunately for Virginia, it's covered just 33% of the time away from home the past 38 years off an upset win, if matched up against an opponent off an upset defeat.  Take Louisville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan St.  Ohio State suffered an embarrassing beatdown at the hands of the iowa Hawkeyes last week, as it lost by 31 points, as 21-point favorite.  And that 52-point differential between the final margin of victory and the pointspread was tied for the 20th worst pointspread differential in the past 38 years.  However, I expect Urban Meyer's men to bounce back off that defeat, as Ohio State's 28-9-1 ATS in Big 10 Conference games off a loss.  Take the Buckeyes.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Baylor.  The Bears opened this season with eight straight losses before finally getting a win -- against woeful Kansas.  But they'll be hard-pressed to make it two in a row, as they will face a Texas Tech squad which looks to make amends from an upset loss last week at home vs. Kansas State.  And the Red Raiders generally bounce back from losses, as they're 70-43 ATS vs. Conference foes.  Take Texas Tech.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Rutgers.  Penn State lost at Ohio State, 39-38, two weeks ago, and 27-24 at Michigan State last week.  But off those two road defeats, I look for Penn State to bounce back on Saturday.  Indeed, since 1980, teams that were undefeated through their first 7+ games, and then lost two games in a row, have bounced back strong (86.7% ATS) off those 2 losses, if they were playing a losing team!  Moreover, Rutgers is an awful 16-36-1 ATS when priced from +20 to +33.5 points.  Take Penn State.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Temple.  The Owls stunned Navy last week, 34-26, as a 6-point home underdog!  Now, the Owls travel to the Queen City to play Cincinnati, and the Owls have been installed as a road favorite.  Obviously, it's not a common occurrence for College Football teams to be a home underdog one game, and a road favorite the next.  And, not surprisingly, NCAA teams that won outright as a home dog have had big letdowns their next game if installed as a road favorite.  Since 1980, they've cashed just 43% of the time.  Even worse for Temple:  it's defeated the Bearcats each of the past two seasons.  But Cincy's 24-13 ATS when playing with revenge, if it also lost to its opponent two meetings back.  And it's also 44-30 ATS at home when not favored by more than 5 points, including 4-1 ATS vs. foes off upset wins.  Take the Bearcats.  AAC Conference Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian St. Mountaineers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  Appy State was upset last week at Louisiana Monroe, when the Warhawks won, 52-45, as an 8-point underdog.  But NCAA Favorites of more than 15 points have covered 61.05% since 1980 off a road upset loss as an 8-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Mountaineers to blow out Georgia Southern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio Bobcats + the points over Toledo.  Ohio comes into this game off three straight wins and covers.  And Ohio scored 48, 48 and 45 points in those three victories.  Faithful followers know I love to play on College Football home dogs that can score, as since 1983, home dogs off two wins, in which they scored 90+ points combined, are 66.9% ATS in the regular season.  Additionally, the Bobcats are 9-0 ATS their last nine when both they, and their opponent entered off a win.  Take Ohio.  MAC Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Bowling Green.  Buffalo certainly wants to give the Falcons some "payback" tonight, as Buffalo has lost the last six meetings to Bowling Green.  And I think it will get its revenge, as Buffalo is 24-9-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe.  And Buffalo also falls into 62-31 and 53-21 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Lay the points with the Bulls.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Colorado.  We played against Todd Graham's men last week, and got the $$$ when USC blew out the Sun Devils, 48-17.  But we'll switch gears, and take ASU on this Saturday, as it falls into 90-42 and 78-31 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off blowout losses.  Additionally, the Sun Devils are a fantastic 26-12-1 ATS at home vs. conference foes when not favored by 5+ points, if they're off a loss.  And they're also a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS vs. the Buffaloes here in Tempe.  Meanwhile, Colorado is a money-burning 10-23 ATS as a road underdog priced from +2.5 to +17.5 points.  Take Arizona State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights are 7-0 after thrashing Austin Peay last week, 73-33, and are now alone in first place in the American Athletic Conference's East Division (after South Florida was defeated by Houston).  Central Florida is also just one of five remaining undefeated teams.  But this will be a tougher-than-expected test against a 6-2 SMU squad.  The Mustangs have also gone 5-3 ATS this year.  And home dogs of more than 6 points, with a winning record (both straight-up and ATS), are 32-7 ATS since 1992 vs. undefeated teams with a 7-0 (or better) record.  Additionally, the home team has covered five straight games in this series.  Take SMU.  American Athletic Conf. Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams minus the points over Wyoming.  Last week, Colorado State was favored by 10 points vs. Air Force, but was upset 45-28, so it failed to cover the spread by 27 points.  Meanwhile, Wyoming blew out New Mexico, 42-3, as a 2.5-point favorite.  So, it covered by 36.5 points.  Overall, Wyoming has gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS its last five, while Colo St is on a 3-game ATS losing streak.  It may look tempting to take the points with the home dog Cowboys, but be careful, as home dogs that covered their previous game by more than 26 points are a poor 28% over the past 30 years vs. foes off a pointspread loss of more than 26 points.  Even better for the Rams:  they're 19-7 ATS their last 26 road games, including 9-1 vs. .625 (or better) foes, and 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 7 or less points.  Take Colorado State in a blowout.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over Georgia.  The Bulldogs are off a 42-7 blowout of Florida, and ranked #1 in the country, but I expect a very tough game in Athens, on Saturday.  South Carolina has won three straight, and has held their last three foes (Arkansas, Tennessee, Vandy) to no more than 120 rushing yards.  It's also giving up less than 20 ppg on the season.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs fall into one of their worst pointspread roles, as they have covered just 28 of 85 home games off an SEC Conference win, including 1-9 ATS when priced from -18.5 to -24 points.  Even better for South Carolina:  undefeated teams, with an 8-0 (or better) record, that covered the spread by 20+ points in their previous game, are an awful 1-15 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -28 points vs. conference foes.  Take the Gamecocks.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Clemson.  NC State lost, 35-14, to an excellent Notre Dame squad last week, but I love it to rebound here, at home, vs. ACC rival Clemson, on Saturday, as NC State falls into a revenge system of mine which is 73-32 ATS since 1980.  Moreover, the Wolfpack are 82.3% ATS the last 38 years as a home dog vs. conference foes, if NC State lost its previous game on the road SU/ATS.  Take the Wolfpack.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Air Force.  Army will look to snap its four-game losing streak to its rival on Saturday.  And Army will have a big advantage in that it had last week off to rest and prepare.  The Knights won their fourth straight game their last time out, a 31-28 victory vs. Temple.  And Army's now won nine of their last 11 games -- a hot streak not seen in Army football in over 20 years (since it won 11 straight games across the 1995 and 1996 seasons).  Air Force is also coming into this game on a win streak, as it's won its last three, including an upset win as a double-digit dog at Colorado State last Saturday.  Unfortunately for the Falcons, unrested favorites of 7 or less points, off upset wins as a dog of +7.5 (or more) points, are an awful 14% ATS since 1980 vs. rested foes off a win.  And Air Force is 1-8 ATS its last nine as a favorite of 7 or less points off an upset win.  Take Army.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Iowa State.  We played on the Cyclones last week in their upset win over then-undefeated TCU, as a 7.5-point underdog.  Iowa State is now 6-2, and ranked #15 in the country.  Unfortunately, .666 (or better) underdogs, off wins over undefeated teams with a 5-0 (or better) record, have cashed a paltry 33% the past 38 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  With the Mountaineers, indeed, off a SU/ATS loss to Okie State, we'll take West Virginia as the small home favorite on Saturday.  Lay it.

At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoies minus the points over Syracuse.  The Seminoles are mired in a horrible year, as they were upset, 35-3, on the road vs. Boston College last Friday.  And FSU is also now 0-6-1 ATS!  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Seminoles, especially since Syracuse is 5-0-1 ATS its last six games.  But consider that .500 (or better) NCAA teams (like Syracuse) on a 5-game (or better) ATS win streak have covered just 15.3% of the time since 1980 vs. a foe with a worse W/L percentage, which was also on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  That doesn't bode well for Syracuse on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that ATS winless teams (like FSU) are a perfect 10-0 ATS (at Game 8 forward) as a home favorite, priced from -3.5 to -13.5 in conference games.  Additionally, FSU falls into 84-32, 88-29 and 52-15 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to bounce back off losses.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:00 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Herd stumbled last Saturday when they lost, 41-30, at home, as a 15-point favorite to Florida International.  But Marshall had won its five previous games before that, and has covered five of seven on the season.  This week, Marshall will travel to play the Owls, and it's a critical game, as the two teams are separated by just one game atop the Conference USA East Division standings.  We'll grab the points with Marshall, as it falls into 51-15, 61-8 and 83-34 ATS "bounce-back" systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset losses.  Moreover, the Owls are 3-12-1 ATS their last 16 home games, including 0-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss.  And they're 5-19-1 ATS their last 25 as a favorite of less than 14 points (including 1-9 ATS vs. foes off a loss).  Take Marshall.  NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Northern Illinois.  Both of these teams come into tonight's game with identical 4-0 Mid-American Conference records, so this game will go a long way toward determining the West Division's representative in the MAC Championship game next month.  Toledo blew out Ball State last week, 58-17, and is 11-1 ATS its last 12 off a win by 17+ points, including 8-0 ATS as a favorite.  And it's 29-7 ATS as a favorite of less than 21 points after cover the spread in its previous game by 8+ points.  Finally, home teams off a SU/ATS win, that average more than 38.63 ppg on offense (thru the season's first 7 games), are 173-106 ATS in the regular season in the past 25 years.  Take Toledo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:15 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over San Diego State.  Hawaii does come into this game off a 37-26 win over San Jose, but it failed to cover the spread in that game, and has dropped five straight to the number, overall.  But we'll step in and take the points with Hawaii, as it falls into an 85% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 5+ ATS losses.  Also, the Rainbow Warriors are a solid 22-9 ATS as a home dog (or PK) off a win, while the Aztecs are a money-burning 8-15 ATS as a favorite away from home vs. .401 (or better) teams.  Take Hawaii.

At 10:45 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Arizona State.  USC is 6-2 this season, but hasn't made many friends in Vegas, as it's covered just once (vs. Stanford), and enters this game on a six-game ATS losing streak.  Arizona State, on the other hand, is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS its last four (all Pac-12 Conference games), including upset wins in each of its two previous games (as 17.5 and 9.5-point underdogs).  But those last two upset wins set up our play on Saturday, as NCAA teams off back to back upset wins as an underdog of more than 9 points are a poor 36.6% ATS since 1980.  Additionally, USC is a strong 22-9 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss.  Take Southern Cal minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves have won and covered four in a row in this series.  But they were favored by more than 14 points in the three previous games.  It's a much different story for this game, as the point spread indicates the game should be very competitive.  And College Football teams have covered just 36% since 1995 if they were playing on the road vs. a revenge-minded team which had lost SU/ATS each of the three previous games, if our road team was favored by more than 10 points in those three games, but is not favored by 5+ points for the current game.  New Mexico St. also had last week off, so it will be playing this game with an extra week of rest.  And New Mexico State has cashed 80% when playing with rest, if it was off a win, and its foe was unrested.  Take New Mexico State.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over Mississippi State.  Both teams are 5-2 on the season, and come into this game off SEC Conference wins.  The Bulldogs blew out Kentucky, 45-7, at home last week, while Texas A&M upset Florida two weeks ago, 19-17, as a 3.5-point underdog.  The Aggies' extra week off is a big factor for me in this game, as Texas A&M falls into one of my best College Football "Rest" angles, which is 101-45 ATS since 1990.  Moreover, since 1980, the Aggies are a strong 18-3 SU and 14-5 ATS at home when playing with rest vs. an unrested foe.  And they're also 14-2 ATS at home as an underdog (or PK) vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take the points with the home underdog Aggies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers + the points over Southern Miss.  The Blazers lost at Charlotte in their last game, 25-24, as a 9.5-point favorite.  But they now fall into a bounce-back system of mine which is 90-36 ATS.  Take the points with UAB.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over TCU.  Both teams come into this big game with strong records.  Iowa State is 5-2 (3-1 in Conference), and has won and covered its last three games.  Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have opened the season with seven straight wins (4-0 in Conference), and held their last two opponents (Kansas, Kansas State) to 6 points, combined!  Unfortunately, NCAA teams have been awful on the road if they held each of their previous two opponents to 6 points or less, and their opponent is off a SU/ATS win.  Since November 1981, our road teams have covered just 19 of 66 in this role.  Iowa State's also 7-2 its last 9 as home dogs.  Finally, 7-0 (or better) teams are a wallet-busting 18% ATS since 1990 as road favorites of more than 6 points vs. foes that have both a winning SU and winning ATS record.  Take Iowa State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Washington.  The Huskies lost for the first time this season in their last game -- a 13-7 defeat at Arizona State -- after opening the 2017 campaign with six straight wins.  Off that first defeat, we'll fade the Huskies, as they fall into negative 45-94 and 22-65 ATS "Bubble Burst" systems of mine that fade certain teams off their initial loss of the season (following 5+ wins to open the year).  Even worse:  the Huskies are a woeful 6-23 ATS their last 29 home games priced from -9.5 to -21 points.  Take UCLA.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Penn State.  The schedule-maker certainly didn’t do the Nittany Lions any favors when it gave them back to back games against Michigan and Ohio State.  And even worse for Penn State is the fact that Ohio State had last week off, so it will be very well-rested for this game against the undefeated Nittany Lions.  I love Ohio State to blow out Penn State, as coach Urban Meyer’s teams have been terrific when playing with rest.  They’ve gone 27-8 in this situation, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. undefeated opponents.  Additionally, the Buckeyes have been on quite a roll over their last three games.  They covered all three, while scoring 56, 62 and 56 points, and winning by an average of 48.67 points per game.  And College Football teams that scored 168 or more points over their three previous games, combined, have gone 56-24 ATS in the regular season since 1998.  Take the Buckeyes minus the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Pitt, as UVa falls into an 161-87 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses (Virginia was blown out as a 7-point favorite last week, at home, by Boston College).  Take UVa to rebound off that defeat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Louisville.  The Cardinals earned their biggest win of the season last week when they upset the Florida State Seminoles, as a 6.5-point underdog.  But off that win, I expect a big letdown on Saturday in Winston-Salem against a Demon Deacons squad has lost its three previous games.  Notwithstanding its recent performance, Wake Forest is still 4-3 on the season, and needs to win two of its final five games to gain bowl eligibility.  Wake's schedule is difficult down the stretch, so winning this game is critical.  For technical support, Louisville falls into a negative 129-200 ATS situation that goes against road teams off upset wins as 6-point (or greater) underdogs.  And the Demon Deacons also fall into 72-32 and 88-29 ATS Conference revenge angles of mine (the Deacons do play with revenge, as they lost 44-12 to the Cardinals last season).  Finally, the Cardinals are a horrid 0-11 ATS the past 17 years off an upset win when not getting 3+ points!  Yikes.  Take Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the WVU Mountaineers + the points over Oklahoma State, as WVU falls into a 30-0 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs +7 or more points.  Take WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles come into this game off back to back wins, and five straight covers.  Meanwhile, the Seminoles are a shocking 2-4 SU and 0-5-1 ATS.  But I like Florida State to get the $$$ on Friday.  Since 1980, teams off 5 ATS defeats are 55-29 ATS vs. foes off 3+ ATS wins.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo.  The Cardinals come into tonight's game on a 4-game losing streak.  And they're also 0-4-1 ATS their last five games (failing to cover by an average of 23.1 ppg).  Meanwhile, Toledo's off 3 straight wins, and two straight covers.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with the Rockets.  But Ball State falls into a 179-120 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Likewise, Mid-American Conference home underdogs have cashed 63.4% if they are off back to back SU/ATS losses, and their opponent is off a win.  And College Football teams have won 64.1% the last 29 years if they failed to cover the pointspread by more than 15 points in each of their three previous games.  Take Ball State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs are 6-0, and ranked #4 in the country (after starting the season unranked).  But TCU is 0-3 ATS this season when laying 8 or more points.  And it's also a horrid 0-10 ATS its last 10 games at home.  That doesn't bode well for laying this many points.  Also, Kansas happened to lose by 45 points last week at Iowa State.  But Big 12 teams generally bounce back off blowout losses by 45+ points, as they've cashed 63% since over the past 21 years.  Finally, undefeated teams, with a record of 5-0 (or better) are an awful 35% ATS since 1980 at home vs. foes that failed to cover the spread by 20+ points in their previous game.  Take Kansas + the points.  NCAA Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish have been installed as a home favorite vs. the Trojans, and I can’t pass up taking the points with USC.  First, Pac-12 single-digit underdogs are a super 152-107 ATS vs. non-conference foes since 1980, so that bodes well for USC.  Also, Southern Cal has gone 1-6 ATS in its seven games this season, including 0-5 ATS its last five, while Notre Dame has won and covered four straight.  Now, on the surface, that may not seem like a good thing.  But pointspread failures also create value and opportunity, and that’s the situation here, on the road at Notre Dame.  Indeed,  teams off 4 or more pointspread losses are a super 73.3% ATS since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off 4 (or more) pointspread wins, including 9-0-1 ATS the last 10 when the game was competitively-priced with a pointspread less than 7 points.  Finally, the Fighting Irish are an awful 19-41 ATS as home favorites vs. winning opposition, including 4-18 ATS vs. foes with a losing pointspread record.  Take Southern California + the points.  NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks plus the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars shocked Troy State last week, 19-8, as a 19-point underdog, to improve their record to 2-4 on the season.  And off that win, South Alabama has been installed as a favorite vs. the 3-3 Warhawks.  Unfortunately, College Football teams generally suffer letdowns following upsets as a 14-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, and especially when matched up against .500 (or better) opponents, as they've cashed just 40% since 1980.  Even worse:  the Jaguars have covered just 1 of their last 10 at home when favored by 4+ points.  Take Louisiana Monroe.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over North Texas.  The Mean Green come into this game off back to back upset wins (over Texas San Antonio and Southern Miss), which moved their record to 4-2 on the season.  But those two upsets have placed North Texas in a negative system of mine which has covered just 31% ATS since 1980 (including 0-9 ATS its last 9).  What we want to do is go against any road underdog off back to back upset wins, if it's now playing a conference foe off a double-digit conference win.  With the Owls, indeed, off a 58-28 blowout win over Old Dominion, we'll lay the points with Florida Atlantic on Saturday.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State.  Kentucky is off to a great start this season, as it's won five of its six games, with its only loss by a single point to the Florida Gators.  And the Wildcats led by 13 points in the 4th quarter vs. Florida, but gave up two late touchdowns (including the last one with just 43 seconds left) to succumb, 28-27.  With that as a backdrop, it's hard to pass up taking double-digits with Kentucky, given that the Bulldogs are an awful 14-25 ATS as a home favorite of -10 (or more) points, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a win by 6+ points.  Even better:  Kentucky had last week off, so it will be well-rested, while the Bulldogs had to play a game vs. BYU.  And rested SEC Conference teams are a super 88-60 ATS on the road vs. non-rested conference foes, including 37-19 ATS when catching 8+ points.  Finally, the Wildcats fall into a 101-41 ATS System of mine which plays on certain rested teams.  Take Kentucky.  SEC Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on Virginia minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles upset Louisville, 45-42, as an 18.5-point underdog last week.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams off upset wins the previous week, as an underdog of 14+ points, are an awful 40% ATS since 1980 vs. .500 (or better) opponents.  With Virginia 5-1 on the season, including 4-0 SU/ATS its last four, we'll lay the points with the Cavaliers.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Akron.  The Zips pulled off a huge upset last weekend when they went into Western Michigan and won outright, 14-13, as a 12.5-point underdog.  That also was Akron's 3rd straight win (and fourth straight cover).  But we'll fade Akron at Toledo on this Saturday, as underdogs of +3 (or more) points, off an outright win as a double-digit underdog, and on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak, have covered just 28% over the past 38 years vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Meanwhile, Toledo's a perfect 6-0 ATS at home vs. foes off upset wins.  And Akron's a horrid 0-10 ATS off an upset win, if its W/L percentage was .500 (or better).  Take Toledo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Idaho.  After struggling in their first four games, where they went 1-3 straight-up, and 0-4 ATS (failing to cover by 21.0 ppg), the Missouri Tigers have cashed the last two weeks in Vegas, as they lost again straight-up, but snuck inside the number vs. Kentucky and Georgia.  So, the fact that Idaho is coming into town (rather than an SEC Conference foe) must be a welcome sight for the Tigers, as they no doubt would love to snap their 5-game losing streak.  Missouri has been installed as a double-digit home favorite, and it is in its best pointspread role on Saturday.  Since 1997, Missouri is a perfect 13-0 SU/ATS at home when favored by 13+ points, if it lost its previous game!  And it's won those games by an average margin of 30.69 ppg, and covered by an average of 9.64.  Lay the points with Mizzou.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Colorado State.  The Lobos were shut out last week by Fresno State, 38-0, as a 2.5-point favorite.  That was by far the worst game the Lobos have played this season.  Indeed, they had covered the pointspread in each of their three games prior to that upset loss.  The good news is that College Football teams generally bounce back from such poor games, and especially if they were a reliable team against the spread theretofore.  For technical support, consider that home teams off losses, that failed to cover by 35+ points in that loss, are 72.2% ATS since 1980 if they also have a winning ATS record on the season.  Take the Lobos.  Mountain West Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs + the points over Western Kentucky.  Old Dominion is 2-4 SU and has dropped its last 4 games (including a 35-3 blowout at Marshall last week), while the Hilltoppers are on a 3-game win streak.  But in Vegas, Western Kentucky has burned just as much money as Old Dominion, as each team is just 1-5 against the spread.  We'll take the points with Old Dominion, as home teams have covered a fantastic 79% of conference games since 1980 if they lost their three previous games, and failed to cover their most recent game by more than 12 points, while their opponent won their three previous games, but owned a losing ATS record on the season.  Take Old Dominion.  NCAA Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At midnight, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over San Jose St.  Hawaii was upset by Nevada, 35-21, as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday.  And that loss extended Hawaii's SU/ATS losing streak to four games.  But it's a super 63% ATS over the past 20 years off an upset defeat, while San Jose is a poor 29% ATS vs. foes off upset losses.  Hawaii also falls into a 102-64 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses.  Finally, Hawaii will have a big advantage on the ground, as it averages 5.7 ypg (against foes that give up 4.9 ypr), while San Jose only rushes for 3.2 ypr (against a schedule of opponents that give up 4.0 ypr).  And losing teams, favored by double-digits, that rush for at least 5.5 yards per carry have cashed 68% over the past 21 years vs. conference foes that don't rush for more than 3.5 yards per carry.  Take the Rainbow Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins over Arizona.  Both of these Pac-12 schools are 3-2, with each coming into this game off wins over Colorado.  UCLA played the Buffaloes two weeks ago (and, thus, are rested), while Arizona upset the Buffaloes in Boulder last Saturday.  Unfortunately for Arizona, that upset win has triggered several negative systems of mine, with records of 23-90, 74-159 and 95-169.  Also, the Wildcats are a very poor 2-17 ATS off an upset win when not getting 7+ points, including 0-10 ATS vs. .600 (or worse) opponents.  Take UCLA.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Michigan State.  This is a big letdown spot for the Spartans, who upset their rival -- the Michigan Wolverines -- in Ann Arbor last week, 14-10, as an 11-point underdog.  The Spartans are now 4-1 on the season, while Minnesota is 3-2 after its loss to Purdue last Saturday.  But .600 (or better) teams. off an upset win as a double-digit road underdog, are an awful 28% ATS on the road vs. foes off a loss since 1980.  The Spartans are also 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites.  Take Minnesota.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Utah.  Both teams come into this huge Pac-12 affair with one loss.  The Utes fell by 3, at home, to Stanford, while USC lost at Washington St.  Stanford is the only common opponent of these two teams, and the disparate results are illuminating.  Indeed, USC blew out the Cardinal in Week 2, 42-24, as a 3.5-point favorite (and outgained them by 181 yards), while Utah lost last week, 23-20, as a 3-point underdog (and was outgained by 2 yards).  The Trojans do come into this game off a win, however, as they bombed Oregon State, 38-10, but failed to cover the 33-point spread.  I look for USC to register another blowout this week (and also cover the number), as the Trojans fall into a 64-24 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off pointspread defeats.  Moreover, USC is 10-1 ATS at home as a favorite of 17 or less points off an ATS loss, while Utah is 0-8 ATS vs. Conference foes off back to back ATS defeats.  Finally, it's certainly true that Utah is 4-0-1 ATS this season.  But Utah's unblemished ATS record works to create line value for USC.  And, unfortunately for Utah, Pac-12 road underdogs of +4 (or more) points are a poor 28% ATS over the past 22 years if they're undefeated ATS (at Game 4 forward).  Lay the points with USC.  Pac-12 Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on Louisiana Monroe minus the points over Georgia State.  The Warhawks are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak after blowing out Texas State, 45-27, last week, as a 5.5-point road favorite.  And they topped 50 points in their two games before that, with wins over Coastal Carolina (51-43) and La Lafayette (56-50).  I won't step in front of this freight train, as home teams off 3 SU/ATS wins have cashed 61% since 1980 if they scored over 150 points combined in their three previous games.  Take Louisiana Monroe.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Charlotte.  The 49ers are winless this season (0-6), while Western Kentucky is 3-2, including SU wins in its last two games.  But neither team has had much success in Vegas, as the 49ers are 2-4 ATS (covering their last two games), while the Hilltoppers are 0-5 ATS.  But I love Western Kentucky to get its first ATS win of the year, as home teams off a win have cashed 71.7% since 1980 vs. winless teams with an 0-6 (or worse) record, if our winless team is off a pointspread win.  Also, Western Kentucky is 16-3 ATS in Conference games off back to back wins, if the pointspread was less than 30 points.  Take the Hilltoppers.  Conference USA Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Auburn.  LSU has disappointed this season, with surprising losses to both Mississippi State and Troy State, while Auburn has played well, with its only defeat being a narrow 14-6 loss to defending Champ, Clemson.  But Auburn's three SEC victories (Missouri, Mississippi State, Ole Miss) were against teams that currently have a combined conference record of 1-7.  And it's hard to make a case for Auburn as a big road favorite, given that it's lost its last 8 games at LSU.  I really liked that LSU shook off its upset loss to Troy State with a 1-point road win last week at Florida (though LSU failed to cover the closing line of -1.5, and hasn't covered since its opening week shutout of BYU).  Coach Ed Orgeron didn't hide the fact that the coaching staff had meetings to fix problems on the staff, and one of the things that came out of the sessions was Orgeron's agreement to not micro-manage his coordinators.  Offensive coordinator Matt Canada was given freedom to run his full offense, and the team benefited last week.  There were also two players-only meetings, and the LSU team played noticeably with more toughness and energy vs. Florida than it did to start the season.  LSU falls into 52-25, 102-64 and 64-24 ATS Systems of mine that play on certain teams on ATS losing streaks.  Don't be surprised if there's an upset in Baton Rouge on Saturday.  Take the points.  SEC GAME OF THE WEEK.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Central Michigan.  The Chippewas leveled their record at 3-3 after upsetting Ohio, 26-23, as a 10-point road underdog last week, while Toledo moved its mark to 4-1 after getting by Eastern Michigan, at home, 20-15.  But it's hard for teams to pull off back to back upset wins, and I look for CMU to suffer a letdown on Saturday.  For technical support, consider that home dogs have covered just 34% since 1980 off an outright win as a double-digit road underdog, if they're matched up against .800 (or better) foes.  Even worse for CMU:  it's 0-9 ATS as an underdog of +6 or more points off an upset win.  Take Toledo.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Virginia, as UNC falls into a 67% ATS system of mine.  What we want to do is go against any team away from home off 3 ATS wins, if it's up against an opponent off 3 ATS losses, and the line is less than 11 points.  And that's the situation today, as Virginia is off 3 ATS wins, while UNC is off 3 ATS losses.  Take North Carolina.  NCAA Roadkill.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats plus the points over TCU.  Last week, the Wildcats fell by 6, in overtime, to Texas, as a 5-point underdog, and are now 3-2 on the season.  The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, are undefeated, at 5-0, and have been installed as a road favorite in Manhattan vs. K-State.  However, TCU's been a very weak favorite of late, including 8-23 ATS since 2011 when priced as a favorite of less than 14 points.  And Kansas State has been terrific as a home dog, with a 28-16 record since 1988, including 11-1 ATS off a SU/ATS loss.   Moreover, undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record, have cashed a paltry 31% since 1980 as road favorites of -2.5 (or more) points vs. .600 (or better) teams off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the points with Kansas State on Saturday.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over South Carolina.  In their last game, the Volunteers were blanked, 41-0, by Georgia, here at home.  The Gamecocks, meanwhile blew out Arkansas, 48-22, in Columbia last Saturday.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with South Carolina, given that they're 4-2 SU/ATS, while Tennessee is just 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS on the season.  But favorites off a 25-point (or worse) defeat have cashed a whopping 70.7% over the past 38 years vs. conference foes off a 25-point (or better) victory.  But that's not the best part.  If our favored team also has a .571 (or better) win percentage, then our 70.7% ATS system zooms to a nearly-perfect 14-1, 93% ATS.  Also, .500 (or better) teams have gone 71% ATS at home since 1980 off a home shutout loss (and 78% in Conference games)!  I look for the Vols to redeem themselves off their 41-0 home defeat.  Lay the points with Tennessee.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks over the Washington State Cougars.  Mike Leach's Cougars upset previously undefeated Southern Cal last week, 30-27, as a 4.5-point underdog.  Not surprisingly, teams that pull off such upsets generally have letdowns in their next game, and especially when going into revenge.  Indeed, since 1980, teams off home upset wins over previously undefeated opponents have covered just 27.4% on the road when matched up against revenge-minded foes, if priced between -17 and +3.5 points!  Last year, Washington State upset Oregon, 51-33, in Pullman, so the Ducks will be looking to avenge that upset defeat here, at Autzen Stadium, on Saturday.  The Ducks are also a super 23-7 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. conference foes, and not laying more than 20 points, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were favored by more than 2 points in that upset defeat the previous season.  Take Oregon.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Fresno St.  The Spartans come into this home game off 4 straight losses (both SU and ATS), and are now 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the season.  They've also failed to cover the spread by 14.58 ppg this season.  But the good news for San Jose is that it's back home on Saturday, where it's gone 2-1 ATS this season.  Also, home dogs off 4 straight ATS losses, that have an average pointspread differential of -14 ppg (or worse), are an awesome 72% ATS the past 33 years vs. .500 (or worse) opponents.  Take the points with San Jose.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Alabama has certainly impressed over the past two weeks, with back to back blowout wins over Vanderbilt (59-0), as a 19-point favorite, and Ole Miss (66-3), as a 29-point favorite.  But we will play against the Tide on Saturday, as undefeated road favorites of -11 (or more) points, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are a dreadful 0-19 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road favorite's average margin of victory for the season was 28.8 ppg (or better).  Take the Aggies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles + the points over Texas San Antonio.  After winning (and covering) each of their first three games this season, the Golden Eagles were upset at home, 43-28, by North Texas last week.  Meanwhile, the Roadrunners blew out Texas St., 44-14, as a 13.5 point favorite.  We'll take the points with Southern Miss, as winning teams have cashed 68.1% in regular season conference games over the past 33 years off a conference loss in which they failed to cover by 16+ points, if they're now double-digit dogs against a foe off a win, in which that foe covered the spread by 16+ points.  Take Southern Miss.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Colorado State.  Utah State comes into this game off back to back impressive wins.  The Aggies routed San Jose 61-10 two weeks ago, and then blew out BYU 40-24 last Friday.  I love playing on home underdogs that can score, and the Aggies certainly fit the bill as they're averaging 34.4 ppg through their first five games.  And, since 1980, home dogs of more than 7 points that average 32+ ppg after at least 5 games, and are off momentum-building back to back wins, have cashed 72% (including 13-1 ATS the past 4 seasons).  Take the Aggies. Mountain West Dog of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Maryland.  Last week, the Buckeyes shut out Rutgers, in Piscataway, 56-0.  I won't step in front of Urban Meyer's men, here, at home, as College Football teams off a 33-point (or better) shutout road win are 38-15 ATS in the regular season vs. conference foes.  Take Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Purdue.  The Gophers lost for the first time this season last week when they fell, 31-24, at home to Maryland, as a 13.5-point favorite.  But I look for Minny to bounce back on Saturday, as .600 (or better) single-digit road underdogs have cashed 71.4% in conference games since 1980, if they lost as a double-digit home favorite the week before.  Moreover, Purdue's covered just 31% over the past 38 years vs. winning Big 10 Conference foes off an upset loss.  Take the points with Minnesota.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes + the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies covered the pointspread for the 4th straight time last week when they fell by just six points to San Diego State (as a 9.5-point underdog).  Unfortunately for Northern Illinois, its 4-0 ATS record sets it up in a very poor situation this weekend.  Since 1980, teams off a pointspread win in Game 4, with an undefeated ATS record thru their first 4 games, are an awful 103-147 (41% ATS) in Conference games at Game 5 of the season.  I look for Kent State to sneak in under this inflated number.  Take the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs are 4-0 on the season following their upset win two weeks ago in Stillwater, where they shocked Oklahoma State, 44-31, as a 9.5-point underdog.  This week, they'll have another high-octane offense with which to contend, as WVU has scored 56, 59 and 56 points in its last three games (all wins by 22+ points).  We'll grab the points with the Mountaineers, as teams that scored 169+ points in their three previous games are an awesome 70.1% ATS in the regular season since 1998.  Take WVU.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Tulsa.  The Green Wave haven't had many winning seasons over the years (just 1 over the past 14 seasons, in fact), but are 2-2 thus far.  In contrast, Tulsa's won 9 of its past 14 seasons, but is off to a 1-4 start.  So, even though Tulane has not been favored in any of the 12 meetings over the past 12 seasons, and has lost 11 of those 12 games, it has been installed as the favorite this year.  One factor in Tulane's favor is that it will be playing with rest, as it had last week off following its win two weeks ago vs. Army.  And Tulane falls into a super 99-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested, revenge-minded teams not favored by more than a touchdown.  Also, the Green Wave are a fantastic 21-9 ATS as a home favorite, priced from -3 to -7 points.  Lay it.  NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars + the points over Boise State.  BYU comes into this game with an 0-5 ATS record, and that's created value for us.  We'll grab the points, as Boise's an awful 3-12 ATS as a favorite.  And the Broncos also fall into a negative 47-88 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road favorites when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Finally, home dogs off 4 straight ATS losses, that have an average pointspread differential of -14 ppg (or worse), are an awesome 72% ATS the past 33 years vs. .500 (or worse) opponents.  Take BYU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Oregon.  We played against Oregon last week, and took the 15 points with Arizona State, which upset the Ducks, in Tempe, 37-35.  As i discussed last week, Oregon's schedule was rather weak to begin the season, so I wasn't very impressed with its 3-0 start.  Of course, now, the Ducks are 3-1, and do return home, but I don't look for them to bounce back, as they fall into a nasty 0-23 ATS system, which plays against certain teams, favored by 7+ points in conference games, off a loss as a 14-point (or greater) favorite.  Moreover, Oregon's just 3-10 ATS its last 13 off an upset loss as a road favorite, while California is 10-1 ATS vs. Conference foes off an upset loss, when Cal is priced from +6 to +16.  Take California.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies pulled off a huge upset as a double-digit dog in their last game, at Nebraska.  But off that upset win, I look for a letdown at SDSU, as teams are 30% ATS since 1980 off an upset win as a double-digit dog, if they're now on the road against a winning, non-conference foe, which is also off a win.  Take San Diego State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack + the points over Fresno State.  The Bulldogs come into this game off back to back blowout losses (by 31 and 32 points), and have now been installed as a big favorite vs. Nevada.  But Fresno has been awful when laying 7+ points, as it's covered just 16 of 50, including 1-10 ATS off back to back losses.  Additionally, Fresno falls into negative 43-107 and 86-164 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off losses.  Take Nevada.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies + the points over Clemson.  The Tigers' defense of their National Championship has gotten off to a strong start.  Clemson is 4-0 straight-up, and 3-1 ATS, including SU/ATS wins over Auburn and Louisville.  But I expect its win streak to be halted by the Hokies, as Va Tech is also 4-0, and has pitched shutouts in two of its four games.  These two teams last met in the ACC Championship game last season, when Clemson vanquished Va Tech, 42-35.  Unfortunately for the Tigers, defending National Champs are a soft 26-52 ATS away from home when off back-to-back wins, and not favored by 14+ points.   And home teams have cashed 79% when playing with revenge from a post-season defeat, if priced from -3.5 to +10 points.  Finally, Virginia Tech is a solid 70-38 ATS as home dogs of more than a point, including 29-11 ATS when playing with revenge.  Take Virginia Tech.  NCAA Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles minus the points over North Texas.  These two teams have traded home wins (and covers) the past two seasons, with North Texas pulling the upset last season in Denton.  This season, both teams are off to decent starts.  Southern Miss has covered each of its three games this season (winning straight-up twice), including a 28-17 win two weeks ago at Louisiana Monroe (Southern Miss had last week off).  North Texas is 2-2 (after going 5-8 last season), and won last week, at home, vs. UAB, but gave up 43 points in the process.  And it has given up 54, 31 and 43 points in its three games this season vs. FBS (Division 1) schools.  That doesn't bode well, here, vs. Southern Miss, as the Golden Eagles have cashed 86% since 1980 when playing with rest, if they owned a defense at least 11 ppg better than their foe.  And North Texas is also 0-8 ATS when playing a rested opponent, if the Mean Green are priced from +4.5 to +11.5 points.  Finally, Conference USA home teams are 27-11 ATS when rested, and playing with revenge vs. an unrested conference foe (including 21-5 ATS vs. .400 or better foes).  Take Southern Miss.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan State.  Both the Hawkeyes and Spartans come into Saturday's game off losses.  But Iowa played great in its defeat, with a narrow 2-point loss vs. Penn State.  In contrast, Michigan St was blown out, 38-18, by Notre Dame.  We'll take the points with Iowa, as it falls into 217-109 and 167-89 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams, in conference games, off a loss.  Moreover, this is a series which has been dominated by the Hawkeyes.  Since 1988, Iowa is 15-5-1 ATS vs. Michigan State, including 10-0-1 ATS when priced from +3 to +21 points!  And Michigan State is a woeful 24-51 ATS off a loss, if its W/L percentage was .500 or better.  Take Iowa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal minus the points over Arizona State.  Last week, we played on the Sun Devils as a 14.5-point underdog, and were rewarded with an outright win over Oregon.  That leveled ASU's record at 2-2, and they'll now travel to Palo Alto to take on Stanford, which is also 2-2 following its 58-34 blowout of UCLA.  We'll play against Arizona State, as it is a poor 0-8 ATS as road underdogs off an upset win vs. foes not off an upset win.  Meanwhile, Stanford is a powerful 50-20 ATS in the regular season vs. conference foes, if it's off a win by 13+ points, and also covered the spread in that previous game.  Take Stanford.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Kansas State.  Last week, the Bears played great, and almost upset the Oklahoma Sooners, as a 28-point underdog.  They lost by just eight points, 49-41, but easily covered the spread by 20 points.  Off that impressive game, I look for Baylor to once again get the cash as a double-digit underdog, as it is 14-3 ATS its last 17 conference games when getting 11+ points.  And it's also an awesome 18-0 ATS since 2011 when coming off a double-digit cover in its previous game, provided it's not favored by 32+ points.  Take the points with Baylor.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over New Mexico State.  The Aggies blew out Texas El Paso last week, 41-14, as a 17-point favorite.  And that win extended New Mexico State's ATS run to 4-0 this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the double-digits with New Mexico State, especially since Arkansas has yet to cover the pointspread this season.  But consider that, since 1980, College Football underdogs of +14 or more points are an awful 37-62 ATS away from home off 4+ ATS wins in a row!  And New Mexico State's a poor 5-12 ATS on the road off back to back covers.  Take the Razorbacks.  NCAA High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Wisconsin.  Northwestern bounced back off its upset loss at Duke in Week 2 to blow out Bowling Green, 49-7, in its third game.  The Wildcats are now 2-1 SU, and will take on undefeated (3-0) Wisconsin, in Madison, on Saturday.  The Wildcats also had last weekend off, and fall into a 93-34 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested underdogs of +7 or more points.  Additionally, Big 10 underdogs of 7+ points, with a winning record, have cashed 76.1% since 1980 when playing with rest vs. conference foes off back to back wins.  Take Northwestern.  Big 10 Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Illinois, as Illinois falls into several negative systems of mine, with records of 87-169, 37-107, and 75-176 ATS since 1980.  Nebraska won its Big 10 opener last week vs. Rutgers, but failed to cover the 11-point spread, as it won by just 10, 27-17.  Illinois, meanwhile, plays its conference opener tonight.  So far this season, the Illini have not made many friends in Vegas, as they come into this game with a 1-2 ATS record, which is par for the course, as they have been a consistent money-burner over the years.  Since 2002, Illinois is 65-96 ATS, including 33-64 when the pointspread was less than 11 points.  Nebraska, on the other hand, has been solid as a road team vs. Big 10 Conference foes, including 8-2 ATS vs. foes off a loss.  And the 'Huskers are also 42-24 ATS on the road when favored and not off a SU/ATS win.  Take Nebraska.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Texas.  Iowa State comes into this game on a 3-game ATS win streak following its blowout victory at Akron (41-14) on Sept. 16.  Texas also played 12 days ago, and suffered a tough 3-point loss at Southern Cal, 27-24.  That defeat has placed Texas into 3 negative systems of mine, with records of 59-124, 79-142 and 217-336.  Meanwhile, the fact that Iowa State is playing with a week of rest at home, and also with revenge, has triggered several very good systems on the Cyclones with records of 39-10, 50-22, 112-73, 107-56 and 43-23.  Finally, the Cyclones have scored more than 40 points in each of their first three games this season.  And NCAA home underdogs of 5+ points have cashed a super 91% since 1980 vs. conference foes if our home dog scored 40+ points in its three previous games.  Take Iowa State.  NCAA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon on Sunday, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Connecticut.  The hurricane season wrecked havoc on the College Football schedule, so we'll have a rare Sunday college football game this weekend.  Interestingly, both teams have yet to cover the pointspread this season.  East Carolina is 0-3 SU/ATS, while Connecticut is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS.  We'll grab the points with East Carolina, as UConn falls into a negative 44-124 ATS system of mine, which fades certain home favorites vs. teams with a losing ATS record.  Additionally, East Carolina has excelled as road underdogs of less than 8 points, as it's 28-15 ATS in this role, including 11-0 ATS if it lost its previous game by 9+ points.  Finally, Connecticut is a dreadful 0-7-1 ATS at home when PK/Favored since September 2012.  Take the Pirates.  High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over Oregon.  Oregon went 3-0 in its non-conference schedule, and now opens Pac-12 Conference play vs. Arizona State.  It's true the Sun Devils are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS this season.  But Arizona State has played a much more difficult schedule than Oregon, as the Sun Devils' two losses were to San Diego State and Texas Tech, both of which are unbeaten on the season.  We'll grab the double-digits with Arizona State, as ASU falls into an 89-38 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home dogs off 3 ATS losses.  Also, the Sun Devils are a super 25-8-1 ATS at home vs. foes that covered by 10+ points in their previous game, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS if ASA wasn't favored by 3+ points.  Take the Sun Devils.  NCAA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Mississippi State Bulldogs.  Last week, we played on Mississippi State, and got the $$$ when it upset LSU, 37-7, as an 8-point underdog.  Unfortunately for Mississippi State, it's cashed just 25% on the road over the past 25 years off an upset win (including 0-5 ATS its last 5).  And NCAA teams are a woeful 0-13 ATS since 2005 off an upset win by more than 28 points, if they were a dog of more than 3 in that upset win, and they're now matched up against a conference foe off back to back wins.  Take Georgia.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Syracuse.  LSU was upset by Mississippi State, 37-7, as an 8.5-point favorite last week, while Syracuse won at home, 41-17, over Central Michigan.  But off their defeat -- where they failed to cover by 38.5 point -- I look for the LSU Tigers to rebound in a big way on Saturday evening.  Indeed, teams off an upset loss are an awesome 51-20 ATS in the regular season if they failed to cover the spread by 35 or more points in their previous game, and their opponent is off a home win.  The Tigers are also a super 13-4 ATS in non-conference games off a pointspread defeat by 14+ points, including 9-1 ATS at home.  Take LSU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons + the points over San Diego State.  The Aztecs pulled a huge upset last week when they won at home, 20-17, as an 8-point underdog vs. Stanford.  That was also San Diego State's 2nd straight upset win, as they knocked off Arizona State on the road, 30-20, as a 3-point underdog the previous week.  Unfortunately for the Aztecs, road favorites tend to have a difficult time following an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) home dog, as they've covered just 36% since 1980.  Even worse:  Air Force is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS vs. conference foes off upset wins, while San Diego State is an awful 13-27 ATS off an upset win.  Take the Falcons + the points.  NCAA Underdog of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.