Sports Picks & Predictions

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi minus the points over Charlotte.  The Golden Eagles failed to cover the spread for the 4th straight game last week, when they bested Marshall, 24-14, but lost ATS as a 17-point favorite.  We'll lay the points with the Golden Eagles, as they fall into 66-30 and 73-24 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off 4+ ATS losses.  Additionally, Charlotte comes into this game off an upset win, two weeks ago, at Marshall, 27-24, as an 8-point underdog.  But that upset win has triggered several "letdown" systems of mine, including one with a 30-83 ATS record since 1980.  Take Southern Miss.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Baylor.  The Bears were upset by the Texas Longhorns last week on a field goal with less than a minute remaining.  One of the things I like to do is go against certain teams off their first loss of the season following 5+ wins to start the year, as these teams suffer emotional letdowns more often than not following their initial defeat.  Indeed, Baylor falls into negative 46-83, 25-56, and 47-94 ATS "Bubble Burst" systems of mine.  Moreover, TCU was upset by Texas Tech last Saturday, 27-24, as a double-digit favorite.  But that upset loss has set up the Frogs in a super 141-62 ATS "Bounce Back" angle of mine.  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Oklahoma State.  Last week, Oklahoma State upset previously-undefeated West Virginia, 37-20, as a 5-point underdog.  But that upset win has triggered a negative 29-79 ATS system, which fades Okie State.  Even worse for the Cowboys, the Wildcats under coach Bill Snyder have gone a jaw-dropping 85-46 ATS at home.  Take Kansas State.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Boston College, as Louisville falls into 55-6, 67-20, 144-62, 14-0 and 46-11 ATS Systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 46-11 ATS angle.  That system plays against certain home teams, not favored by 7+ points, off an upset win as a two touchdown road underdog.  Last week, Boston College went into Raleigh, and shocked the Wolfpack, 21-14, as 14-point underdogs.  But off that upset win, I look for BC to get annihilated by Lamar Jackson & Co. on Saturday.  The Eagles are a dismal 0-6 SU/ATS at home the past two seasons in ACC Conference games, while the Cardinals are a stellar 23-8 ATS when priced from -17 to -27 points. Lay the points with Louisville. ACC Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons over Army.  Last week, Air Force moved to 5-3 on the season with a 31-21 win at Fresno State.  But Army failed to cover the 16.5-point spot.  Meanwhile, the Black Knights pulled a huge upset last Saturday when they went into Winston-Salem, and stunned Wake Forest, 21-13, as a touchdown underdog.  Can Army make it two in a row?  If history is any indication, it's not likely.  Air Force has dominated this series over the past 27 years, with a 24-3 record and 19-8 ATS mark, including two double-digit wins in the games it was installed as an underdog.  It's true the Falcons are on a 4-game ATS losing skein, but teams that are on 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have covered 77% as underdogs in non-conference games since 1980 vs. foes off an upset win over a non-conference foe.  Likewise, winning teams off a pointspread defeat as a road favorite, and 4+ ATS losses in a row, are an awesome 67.6% ATS since 1980 on the road when not catching double-digits.  Take Air Force to smash Army.  Rivalry Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over San Jose State.  Last week, Boise was favored by 14.5 points at Wyoming, and was upset by the Cowboys, 30-28.  That was Boise State's 1st loss of the season, but I love the Broncos to bounce back on Friday.  And that's because, since 1980, home teams favored by more than 15 points have cashed 62% following an upset loss on the road as an 8-point (or greater) favorite.  Additionally, Boise falls into 82-34 and 57-29 ATS Systems of mine based on its loss to Wyoming last week.  Take Boise State.  Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over the UCLA Bruins.  Colorado had last week off, and is in 1st place in the Pac-12 South division, with a 4-1 record (and a 6-2 overall record).  This is a big revenge game for the Buffaloes, as they've lost all five meetings with UCLA since joining the Pac-12 conference.  Colorado falls into a great "revenge" system of mine, which is 83-44 ATS since 1985, and it's a perfect 8-0 ATS this season.  Meanwhile, UCLA 2-8 ATS its last 10 games after getting upset, 52-45, by Utah in its last game.  And it's covered just 8 of 28 road games following a game in which they scored 40+ points.  Take Colorado.  NCAA Payback Payday!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over the Buffalo Bulls.  Last week, the Bobcats shocked Toledo, 31-26, as a 15-point road underdog.  That was Ohio's 2nd straight win (and cover), and fifth win in its last six games.  I look for Ohio to blow out Buffalo on Thursday evening, as home favorites of -6.5 or more points are an awesome 66.2% ATS vs. conference foes over the past 37 years, if our home team is off a win in its previous game, as an underdog of more than 8 points.  And Ohio is also 7-0 ATS at home or on a neutral field off an upset win.  Take Ohio.  NCAA Football High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At Midnight, on Saturday night, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Hawaii.  Both of these teams come into this game with 4 wins, and each had a great win last week.  New Mexico blew out Louisiana Monroe, 59-17, as a 15.5-point favorite, while Hawaii upset Air Force on the road, 34-27, as a 16.5-point underdog.  The Warriors have returned home for this game, and one might expect Hawaii to have a big home field advantage due to the travel distance from the mainland.  But Hawaii's now 0-9 ATS its last 9 home games when it has played without rest.  Even worse:  the Rainbow Warriors fall into a negative 89-164 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off upset wins.  Take New Mexico + the points.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs minus the points over Texas El Paso.  Last week, the Monarchs were annihilated by Western Kentucky, 59-24.  That loss lowered ODU's record to 4-3 (2-1 in Conference USA).  In contrast, UTEP won last week, 52-49, as a double-digit underdog at Texas-San Antonio.  But the Miners are just 2-5 on the season, and have only won once in the four Conference games they've played.  I expect a "return to form" on this Saturday night, as UTEP falls into negative 69-155 and 74-158 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off big upset wins.  Additionally, winning teams (like ODU) off a blowout conference loss by more than 20 points, have covered 59.3% of the time over the past 37 seasons vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win. Take Old Dominion.  C-USA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers come into Madison ranked #7 in the country, on the heels of a 7-0 record.  But they've been installed as a huge underdog vs. the Badgers, who are 5-2 this season.  But Wisconsin's schedule has been much tougher than Nebraska's, as Wisky has lost to Ohio State (in overtime) and Michigan (by just 7), while Nebraska's toughest opponent thus far has been a 2-5 Oregon squad (which it only defeated by 3 points, at home).  Indeed, last week, Nebraska barely got by an awful Purdue team, 27-14, as a 24-point favorite.  And that doesn't bode well for Nebraska, as unrested undefeated teams, with a 7-0 (or better) record, are a dismal 0-20-2 ATS the past 37 years off a conference win by less than 37 points, if they're installed as underdogs of 3+ points vs. conference foes with a worse win percentage.  Take Wisconsin.  NCAA Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles minus the points over Marshall.   Southern Miss had last week off following its 45-10 defeat at LSU on October 15.  But the Golden Eagles still have a winning record on the season, and winning teams, off a SU/ATS 21-point (or worse) defeat, are 310-231 (57.3%) ATS in Conference games since 1980 (at Game 8 forward).  Meanwhile, Marshall's an awful 37-60-1 ATS on the road since 2000.  Take Southern Miss.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over SMU.  Both of these teams are 3-4 on the season, but they couldn't have had much more different results than they experienced last week.  Tulane was crushed, 50-27, by Tulsa, while SMU blew out Houston, 38-16, as a 23-point underdog!  But SMU falls into a negative 13-43 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams in conference games off a conference win by 20+ points, if their foe is off a conference loss by 20+ points.   Also, Tulane is a perfect 7-0 ATS off back to back losses vs. foes off a win.  Take the Green Wave.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles minus the points over Miami-Ohio.  The Red Hawks have won the last eight games in this series, but that streak should be halted by the Eagles this afternoon.  EMU comes into this game off a 45-31 loss at Western Michigan, but has covered its last six games.  And College teams off a loss (but 5+ ATS wins) have covered 79% over the past 5 seasons.  Additionally, EMU falls into a 66-37 ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points with the Eagles.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Navy Midshipmen + the points over South Florida.  The Bulls were upset by Temple last week, 46-30, as a 5.5-point favorite.  Unfortunately for South Florida, that upset loss has triggered several negative systems of mine, with records of 61-125 and 128-200 ATS since 1980.  And, perhaps, the worst team (at least, from a betting standpoint) that a College Football team would want to host would be Navy.  And that's because Navy has historically been the best traveler in College Football against the spread.  Since 1991, Navy is an awesome 103-54-2 ATS away from home, including 39-14 ATS vs. an opponent off a loss (and a perfect 8-0 when priced from +2 to +8 points vs. a foe off a SU/ATS loss)!  Finally, both of these teams are strong at running the football.  And in conference games between teams that average 4.75+ yards per rush, road underdogs of more than 6 points have covered 195 of 338 since 1980, including 138 of 227 (61%) off a straight-up win.  Take Navy.  NCAA Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over California.  Last week, the Cal Golden Bears upset Oregon, 52-49, in overtime, while USC blew out Arizona, 48-14.  USC's now won 3 in a row, including a 21-17 win over a very good Colorado squad.  The Trojans are 4-3, but have really just played two bad games all season, both away from home (52-6 loss to #1 Alabama; 27-10 loss at Stanford).  At home, however, the Trojans are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, with their only ATS loss by a single point.  I look for a blowout tonight vs. California, which has not won a road game all season (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS), and has given up 47.66 ppg away from home.  USC falls into a 100-44 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites vs. foes off upset wins.  Take the Trojans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Ohio.  We played on the Rockets last week vs. Central Michigan and were rewarded with a 31-17 win, as a 10-point favorite.  Toledo's now 75-50 ATS as a favorite, including 50-28 ATS at home.  Even better:  the Rockets are now 7-0 ATS off a home win their last 7.  Toledo's lost just one game on the season, and falls into a 112-50 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on great teams off a big win.  Take the Rockets.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers + the points over Virginia Tech.  Pitt has a big scheduling edge for this Thursday contest, as Pitt hasn't played in 12 days, while the Hokies were at home vs. Miami last Saturday.  Pitt falls into a 52-13 ATS system of mine which involves teams playing with rest, off a SU win.  Additionally, the Panthers are a super 15-4 ATS at home off a double-digit conference win.  Take the Panthers.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack + the points over Wyoming.  The Cowboys come into this game off back to back upset wins -- over then-undefeated Air Force, as a 13-point underdog, and at Colorado State before that, as a 5.5-point underdog.  Now, the Cowboys are a road favorite.  And we'll go against them, as they fall into a negative 59-83 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off back to back upset wins.  Even worse:  that upset win over Air Force sets up Wyoming in another negative situation, as teams off upset wins as home dogs over teams with a 1.000 win percentage are awful as road favorites of -17 or less points.  Since 1980, these teams have cashed just 31.1% of the time.  Take Nevada + the points.  Mountain West Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Oregon State.  Currently, Washington is ranked #5 in the country, but it's in a very good position to make the College Football Playoffs, as #2 Ohio State and #3 Michigan will play each other next month in Columbus.  Thus, if the Huskies can remain undefeated, they will likely leapfrog the Big 10 team which loses that game.  This week, Washington will host Oregon State, and the Beavers' defense has given up more than 30 points per game this season.  That bodes well for Washington, which scored 70 points in its last game -- a 49-point blowout of Oregon.  For the season, Washington is averaging 49.5 ppg.  And, since 1980, high-scoring teams have covered 65.8% at home, at Game 3 forward, if they average at least 48.34 points per game on offense, and are playing an opponent with a defense that surrenders more than 25.5 ppg.  Moreover, Oregon State has covered just 10 of its last 33 away from home as underdogs of more than 18 points vs. an opponent off a win.  Take Washington to blow out the Beavers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Arkansas.  This is a brutal scheduling spot for Arkansas, which upset Mississippi as a 10-point underdog last Saturday, 34-30.  And that's because it has to travel to Auburn to play the Tigers, who had last week off following their 24-point blowout of Miss State in Starkville, two weeks ago.  Since 1980, rested home favorites, off a win, have covered 82.3% of the time against unrested foes off an upset win as a dog of more than 7 points.  Moreover, since 1983, Arkansas is an awful 16-31 ATS when playing away from home vs. a rested opponent, including 1-7 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +12.5 points.  Take Auburn.  SEC Conference Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  The Eagles upset Ohio last week, 27-20, as a 7-point underdog, and are now 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS this season.  Meanwhile, the Broncos are 7-0 this season, and are ranked #20 in the AP poll.  Even better (for our purposes), they're 6-1 ATS with their only pointspread defeat coming by a mere 3 points.  The Broncos have topped 40 points in each of their 3 Mid-American Conference games this season, and I expect another strong offensive showing on Saturday vs. the Eagles, who are giving up 28.3 ppg.  For technical support, consider that favored teams, off three straight wins in which they scored 35+ points, are 203-132 ATS against foes with a .600 (or better) ATS win percentage.  And the Broncos are 17-4 ATS off a straight-up win, while the Eagles are 16-33 ATS off a win.  Take Western Michigan.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Illinois.  The Wolverines were idle last week, but moved up to #3 in the AP poll, bypassing Clemson, which needed overtime to defeat North Carolina State last Saturday.  When we last saw Jim Harbaugh's men, they were dismantling Rutgers in New Jersey, 78-0.  And that was the 3rd largest margin of victory for Michigan in its 137-year history, and the worst loss by Rutgers since 1888.  Coincidentally, Illinois also comes into this game off a road win over Rutgers, as Illinois defeated the Scarlet Knights, 24-7, last week.  Unfortunately for the Illini, it has covered just five of its last 22 games off a pointspread win.  Even worse:  Michigan will be well-rested following its bye week.  And underdogs of more than 21 points -- like Illinois --  playing away from home, are an awful 41% ATS vs. rested foes.  Take Michigan minus the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles minus the points over Syracuse.  Boston College had last week off following its 56-10 blowout loss at the hands of #4-ranked Clemson.  But I love BC to bounce back on Saturday afternoon vs. Syracuse.  The primary reason is that the Orange pulled a massive upset last week when they upset Virginia Tech, 31-17, as a 22.5-point underdog.  That moved Syracuse to 3-4 on the season.  But off that upset win, I expect a big letdown on the road against Boston College, on Saturday.  Indeed, since 1987, teams off an upset win over a conference foe, as an underdog of more than 19 points, have covered just 18.9% of the time vs. foes off a pointspread loss, including 0-16 ATS if our 'play-against' team (here, Syracuse) has a win percentage between .290 and .560.  Take Boston College.  ACC Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Central Michigan.  Toledo (along with Western Michigan) are the only undefeated team in Mid-American Conference play this season.  And, with a date looming with the Broncos at season's end, the Rockets will have an opportunity to defeat the Broncos, and play in the MAC Conference Championship Game.  But, first things first, and the Rockets need to take care of business at home this weekend vs. Central Michigan.  Last week, the Chips upset Northern Illinois, 34-28.  But off that upset win, we'll fade the Chippewas, as they fall into negative 47-96 and 27-82 ATS systems of mine.  Even worse for Central Michigan:  Toledo's been dominant at home, and especially when priced between +5.5 and -27 points, as they're 46-24-2 ATS since 1999.  Finally, the Rockets are 5-0 ATS since 1999 at home when matched up against an opponent off an upset win, while Central Michigan is a horrid 0-7 ATS off an upset win since 1999 as a dog of +6 or more points.  Take Toledo.  NCAA HIGH NOON HANGING.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Texas.  The Wildcats are 3-3 on the season, but have won all 3 home games, while they're 0-3 on the road.  Likewise, Texas has won all 3 of its home games, but has lost all 3 of its games away from Austin, Texas.  This game will be played in Manhattan, Kansas, and the home team has won and covered the last four in this series.  Kansas State lost by 21 points last week to Oklahoma, while Texas won by 21 vs. Iowa State.  That bodes well for the Wildcats, as teams favored by 7 or less points (or PK) off a conference loss by 20+ points have cashed 80.9% vs. conference foes off a conference win by 20+ points since 1987.   Additionally, the Wildcats are an awesome 25-6 ATS off a conference loss by 20+ points since 1988, including a perfect 12-0 ATS if the pointspread is 7 points or less.  Take Kansas State.  NCAA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the California Golden Bears minus the points over Oregon.  The Ducks, under new defensive coordinator Brady Hoke, have been awful on defense this season.  Oregon's allowing opponents to score 41.8 ppg, and it has failed to win or cover any of its last four games.  Even worse for the Ducks:  California's offense is averaging 42.3 ppg.  That doesn't bode well for Oregon, as road teams that give up 38+ points (at Game 3 forward) have covered just 36 of 104 games since 1980 against opponents that score 38+ points a game.   Additionally, California has lost 7 in a row to Oregon in this series, but falls into a super 38-13 ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points with California.  NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Arizona State.  We played on the Buffaloes two weeks ago, as a 20-point favorite against Oregon State, and were rewarded with a 47-6 blowout win.  I had several reasons for playing on Colorado in that game, including the fact they were 4-0 ATS (they're now 6-0 ATS), as well as the fact that they played #4-ranked Michigan extremely tough in defeat.  Indeed, but for the 3rd quarter injury to QB Sefo Liufau, the Buffs very well could have won that game.  Colorado did lose a close game last week at USC (but covered the 5-point spread), and should rebound at home vs. an Arizona State team giving up 33 ppg.  It's true that the Sun Devils have won all 7 meetings since 2006, but their long win streak in the series has set them up in several negative situations, with records of 29-60, 19-50, 13-36 and 43-82 ATS.  Finally, the Buffaloes are 18-0 straight-up and 14-4 ATS since 1995 when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe, if the Buffs are not getting 3+ points.  Take Colorado.  NCAA Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves minus the points over South Alabama.  In its last game, South Alabama pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season-to-date, with a 42-24 win, as a 19-point underdog, over then-Top 25-ranked San Diego State.  But off that monumental upset victory, we'll fade the Jaguars on the road, on Saturday, as they fall into a negative 35-108 ATS system of mine.  Additionally, teams off wins by 14+ points, as 14-point (or greater) underdogs, have covered just 32.1% over the past 11 seasons.  Finally, the Jags are a poor 0-6 ATS off an ATS win in their previous game, while the Red Wolves are 11-0 ATS since 2005 when priced from -3.5 to -10.5 points vs. a foe off a straight-up win.  Take Arkansas State.  Below the Radar Rout!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals minus the points over New Mexico State.  We've gone against the Aggies a couple of times this season, with the last being their road game at Troy State, back on Sept. 24.  That game was a blowout from the get-go, as Troy State walloped New Mexico State, 52-6.  The Aggies did bounce back to win their next game, 37-31, as a 5.5-point home underdog vs. Louisiana Lafayette.  Unfortunately, that upset win has triggered several of my best systems that all go against the Aggies as a road underdog on Saturday.  Those angles have records of 103-38, 23-5 and 99-55 ATS.  Last year, the Aggies survived to defeat the Vandals, 55-48, at home.  But New Mexico State's an awful 0-8 ATS off a home game, if they're matched up against a revenge-minded foe, and the Aggies are not getting 7+ points.  The revenger is also 9-3 ATS in this series since 2002.  Take Idaho.  Conference Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Nebraska.  Nebraska comes into this game with a perfect 5-0 record following its 31-16 home win vs. Illinois.  We played against Nebraska in that game, and got the $$$ with the Illini, who were catching 20.5 points in that game.  One reason is that I'm of the mindset that the 'Huskers are overrated by being ranked among the nation's Top 10.  Indeed, its best win this season was at home, 35-32, vs. Oregon, as a 3-point favorite.  At the time, it was impressive (even if Nebraska only "pushed" against the spread), but Oregon has since lost all 3 of its games (both SU and ATS), and failed to cover those games by 16, 21, and 39 points!  Nebraska did have last week off, but a week of rest has actually not served undefeated teams (with records of 5-0 or better) well, as they've cashed just 23% on the road in the regular season when not getting 3+ points.  Nebraska's also a poor 8-25-1 ATS away from home off a double-digit conference home win.  Take the points with the Hoosiers.  Underdog Shocker!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Florida State.  The Seminoles bounced back from their last-second loss to North Carolina with an upset win at Miami.  But off that upset win, I expect a letdown vs. a good Wake Forest team.  The Demon Deacons are 5-1 this season (their best start since 2006), yet are catching more than 20 points in this game.  And .714 (or better) teams are 18-1 ATS as double-digit dogs since 1995 against conference foes off an upset win over another conference foe (with the only ATS loss by a mere half-point).  Florida State was already significantly banged-up going into last week's game, but suffered more casualties vs. the Hurricanes, with QB Deondre Francois (shoulder) and star DB Nate Andrews (pectoral) among the wounded.  Francois is listed as probable, but Andrews was lost for the season.  Admittedly, the Deacs also suffered a key injury last week (QB Kendall Hinton), but the drop-off between Hinton and back-up John Wolford is not significant.  And, outside of that injury, the Deacs are relatively healthy.  Wake's defense against the run has been strong this season (3.4 ypr against foes that average 4.0 ypr), and it will make things difficult for FSU's Dalvin Cook.  Take Wake Forest.  NCAA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over the Purdue Boilermakers.  The Boilers upset Illinois as a 9-point underdog last week, 34-31.  But they were blown out by Maryland, 50-7, in their only other Big 10 tilt this season.  And, notwithstanding Purdue's big win last week, it's hard to find much to love about the Boilers' defense.  After all, it allowed Maryland to run for 400 yards on 46 carries (8.69 ypr).  And then it allowed Illinois to run for 315 yards on 46 carries (6.84 ypr).  To put these numbers in perspective, Maryland has rushed for 5.41 ypr in its other games this season, while Illinois has rushed for 5.21 ypr in its other games.  Thus, Purdue allowed its two Big 10 foes to get 3.28 and 1.63 ypr more than they have otherwise gained this season.  Iowa prefers to run the football, and I expect its backs to have a field day against Purdue's soft run defense.  Purdue's an awful 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS its last 16 as home underdogs!  And it also falls into negative 69-154, 89-162, 6-54 and 62-142 ATS systems of mine.  Take Iowa.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on North Carolina State minus the points over Notre Dame, as North Carolina State falls into a super 96-44 ATS system of mine.  That system is based, in large part, on the Fighting Irish's sieve-like defense.  This is Greg Hudson's first year as Notre Dame defensive coordinator (following a 3-year stint at Purdue).  To say that the season has not gone as planned would be a massive understatement.  Indeed, if you toss out Notre Dame's game against Nevada (the weakest foe among the Irish's five opponents), then Notre Dame has given up an average of 39.25 points per game!  And, for the season, the Irish defense is giving up more than 12 ppg than NC State's defense.  That doesn't bode well for the Irish on Saturday, given that the Wolfpack has covered 80% as home favorites the past 37 years vs. foes with defensive averages greater than 31.5 ppg, and 69% vs. foes with defenses that gave up more than 12 ppg than NC State's defense.  Take the Wolfpack minus the points.  NCAA Football High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Clemson.  Last week, Clemson won the biggest game of the college season-to-date, when it upset Louisville 42-36, at home, in a match-up of Top 5 teams.  Off that win, I look for a letdown on the road on this Friday.  Boston College falls into 120-64, 98-39 and 154-84 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine following its back-to-back 30-point wins.  Additionally, unbeaten teams, like Clemson, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are an awful 35.4% ATS since 1980 as road favorites of -3 (or more) points, if they're off an upset win.  Finally, double-digit favorites are a poor 27.9% ATS off an upset conference win, if they're matched up against a .600 (or better) conference foe since 1980.  Take Boston College.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Colorado State.  Last week, Wyoming was upset, 27-24, as a 6-point favorite by Eastern Michigan.  That was the Cowboys' 3rd straight ATS defeat.  Meanwhile, Colorado State covered its 3rd straight in a 7-point loss at Minnesota (as a 17-point underdog).  I look for Wyoming to bounce back off its upset loss, as it falls into several of my best "bounce-back" systems, with records of 83-31, 88-27 and 121-42 ATS.  Additionally, teams off 3 straight ATS losses have covered 70.4 % vs. Conference foes off a loss, if that foe is also off 3 straight ATS wins.  Moreover, Wyoming has cashed 62% as a road underdog off an upset loss since 1980, and has also cashed 76.1% the last 22 years on the road when playing with revenge against a foe off a loss.  Finally, Colorado State has been horrid as a favorite vs. revengers that don't have either a winning record or a winning ATS record, as it's covered just 18 of 51.  Take Wyoming + the points.  NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders minus the points over North Texas.  Last week, the Mean Green upset Rice, 42-35, as a 7-point underdog.  But off that upset win, I look for a big letdown here, at home, as a double-digit underdog.  Indeed, North Texas falls into negative 6-54 and 61-142 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins.  Moreover, the Mean Green have been horrid off upset wins.  Since 2005, they're 0-17 straight-up, and 4-13 ATS following an outright win as an underdog (and 1-10 ATS in conference games)!  Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has been at its best as a road favorite, as it's 21-4 SU and 17-7-1 ATS the past 12 seasons.  And it's also cashed 7 straight as a favorite of -11+ points vs. foes off a win.  Take the Blue Raiders minus the points.  Conference USA Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Wisconsin.  The Wolverines have been installed as a big favorite over Wisconsin, and it may look tempting to grab the points with the undefeated Badgers.  After all, they've already won outright as underdogs vs. LSU and Michigan State.  Unfortunately for Wisky, unbeaten teams, with a 4-0 (or better) record have been awful away from home when getting 8+ points.  Since 1980, they've covered just 39% of the time (and just 23% if they're playing away from home in back to back games).  Even worse:  Michigan is averaging 52 ppg on offense (more than 21 ppg better than Wisconsin), and home favorites that average 50+ points have covered 59.2% since 1980, including 64% if they average more than 21 ppg than their opponent.  Finally, Jim Harbaugh's teams have gone 26-10 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.  Lay the points with Jim Harbaugh's men.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Nebraska, as Illinois falls into 64-25 and 57-26 ATS systems of mine.  Nebraska comes into this game ranked among the Top 15.  The 'Huskers have a 4-0 record, and are also 3-0-1 ATS after defeating Northwestern last week, 24-13, as an 8-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Illini were blown out, 34-10, at home by Western Michigan, as a 3-point underdog in their previous game.  But I look for Illinois to bounce back on Saturday.  One of the things I like to do is play on double-digit conference road underdogs following a 20-point SU and 20-point ATS blowout loss, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS win, which also has a winning ATS record on the season.  Dating back to 1980, our underdogs in this situation have cashed 65% of the time.  Additionally, the Illini had last week off, and they've been super when playing with rest.  Since 1980, they've cashed 78% as road underdogs in Big 10 games following a week off.  Finally, Nebraska is a wallet-busting 5-19-2 ATS since 1980 when playing a rested opponent, if Nebraska, itself, is unrested.  Take Illinois.  NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Oregon State.  Colorado is off to a terrific 3-1 start this season.  And its only loss was 45-28, at #4-ranked Michigan two weeks ago.  But the Buffs covered the spread in that game (they're 4-0 ATS this year), and actually led the Wolverines, 21-7, after the first quarter, and 28-24 early in the 3rd quarter.  Unfortunately, Colorado's QB, Sefo Liufau, sustained an injury after throwing his 3rd TD pass to give the Buffaloes that 28-24 lead, and was replaced by freshman QB Steven Montez two series later.  The Buffs never scored again in that Michigan game, but Montez threw for 333 yards and three TDs last week at Oregon (and ran for 135 yards and a 4th TD), in Colorado's 41-38 upset of the Ducks (as a 13.5-point underdog).  It's unclear who will start this week under center for Colorado, as Liufau is not fully healthy.  But Montez was named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week, so, regardless which QB is on the field, we're going to back the Buffaloes.  For technical support, consider that double-digit home favorites with a winning SU/ATS record, that won outright as double-digit road underdogs in their previous game, have covered 78.1% since 1985 vs. conference foes!  Finally, Oregon State has covered just 3 of its last 14 games off a pointspread win.  And it's also 3-13 ATS its last 16 conference games.  Take the Buffaloes minus the points. NCAA Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Vanderbilt, as Florida falls into 157-73 and 166-80 ATS systems of mine.  Last week, Vanderbilt went into Western Kentucky, and upset the Hilltoppers, 31-30, as 9.5-point underdogs.  That upset win, though, sets up the Commodores in several negative systems of mine, including one with a negative 68-154 ATS record since 1980.  And this spot against the Gators will be especially difficult, as I expect Florida to be in an ornery mood after blowing a 21-3 halftime lead in Knoxville last week.  Florida has been solid over the years on the road in SEC Conference games.  Dating back to 1982, it has covered over 60% of the time (67-44-1 ATS).  And Vandy has been awful at home vs. foes off a loss, as the Commodores have covered just 32 of 81 games.  Finally, over the last 36 seasons, SEC Conference teams have covered just 28% of the time as home underdogs following an upset win over a non-conference foe.  With Vandy on a 12-game losing streak at home to the Gators (4-8 ATS), we'll fade the Commodores and take Florida minus the points.  High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Stanford, as Washington falls into 183-113 and 87-29 ATS systems of mine.  Last week, Stanford came back in the game's final minutes to defeat UCLA, 22-13, while Washington downed Arizona, 35-28.  That was Stanford's 15th win in its last 16 games (and 7th straight Pac-12 road win).  But I think the Cardinal's streak ends here, in Seattle.  Statistically, the biggest difference between these two teams is on offense.  The Huskies are averaging a whopping 45.75 ppg, while Stanford's offense has only generated 25.0 ppg.  And faithful followers know I love playing on College teams that can score.  Washington also plays this game with revenge from a 31-14 loss at Stanford last season.  And revenge-minded home teams have cashed 75% of the time since 1981 if they average more than 20.5 ppg on offense than does their opponent, and their opponent is off a SU/ATS win.  Look for Chris Petersen's men to hand Stanford its first loss of the season.  Take the Huskies!  NCAA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over the California Golden Bears, as Arizona State falls into 102-38, 107-35, and 82-25 ATS systems of mine.  Last week, California upset the Texas Longhorns, 50-43, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  But off that upset win, I expect a major letdown, on the road on Saturday night, in Temple.  Indeed, the Bears have covered just 16 of 42 off upset wins, including an awful 3 of 19 when playing a competitively-priced game with a pointspread less than 7 points (and 1-9 ATS on the road).  That doesn't bode well for California on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that the Bears have given up 39.67 ppg this season.  California gave up 31 to a horrible Hawaii team in its opener (a 51-31 win, but 1.5-point ATS loss), and then gave up 45 points in a 5-point loss (but 1/2 point cover) to San Diego State in its second game.  For technical support, consider that teams off upset wins, that surrender 38.5+ points per game, are a horrid 25.6% ATS over the past 36 seasons vs. conference foes off straight-up wins (including 0-13 ATS if our play-against team (here, California) gave up more than 14 points in its upset win, and also covered the spread 2 games back)!  Since 1984, Arizona State is 11-0 ATS as home favorites vs. conference foes that pulled an upset the previous week!  Take the Sun Devils.  Pac-12 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over the Stanford Cardinal.  UCLA comes into this game 2-1 straight-up, but 0-3 ATS, while Stanford is perfect SU and ATS this season.  The knee jerk reaction might be to play against UCLA here, but consider the following:  Since 1981, at Game 4 forward, .500 (or better) teams have cashed 72.4 percent of the time if they were winless ATS, not favored by 7+ points, and their opponent was 100% perfect ATS!  Even better:  UCLA has dominated as home underdogs (or PK), and when matched up against foes not off a loss, the Bruins have gone 29-11-1 ATS since 1981.  Look for the Bruins to upset the Cardinal on Saturday night. Pac-12 Dog of Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over South Carolina.  Last week, the Gamecocks moved to 2-1 SU/ATS this season with a 20-15 win over East Carolina, while the Wildcats defeated the New Mexico State Aggies, 62-42, to notch their first win of the season.  I look for Kentucky to make it two straight on this Saturday evening, as they fall into 123-54 and 338-236 ATS systems of mine based on their blowout win.  Additionally, single-digit home favorites off a win the previous week, in which they scored 60+ points, have cashed a staggering 74% of the time since 1980 vs. unrested conference foes.  Finally, Kentucky is a terrific 79% ATS since 1980 as a home favorite off a SU win, if its foe has a winning pointspread record.  Take the Wildcats.  NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Oklahoma State, as Baylor falls into 58-24, 97-51 and 94-44 ATS systems of mine.  Baylor comes into this game with a 3-0 record, but has yet to cover the pointspread.  It should break through with an ATS win this week.  Indeed, since 1980, undefeated teams, with a 3-0 (or better) record, have covered 75% of the time as a favorite of less than 16 points, if they were winless ATS on the season.  That bodes very well for the Bears on Saturday.  Additionally, the Bears are a superb 25-3 straight-up and 21-7 ATS at home the past 6 seasons, while the Cowboys are an awful 1-13 ATS as road underdogs, priced from +7.5 to +11.5, against Big 12 foes.  Take Baylor. Big 12 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over New Mexico State.  The Trojans stunned Southern Mississippi, 37-31, last week, as 9.5-point road underdogs.  Off that big upset win, I look for Troy St. to blow out New Mexico State on Saturday.  One of the things I love to do is play on home favorites of a touchdown (or more), if they're off an away upset win as a dog of more than 7 points.  Such teams are 95-55 ATS since 1980!  That's one reason I favor Troy.  Another is that New Mexico State has covered just 25% of the time since 1999 off a loss, if it's playing on the road vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Lay the points with the Trojans.  Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Georgia Southern.  This is an interesting match-up between two undefeated teams that both have 3-0 records.  But the Broncos have played the MUCH TOUGHER schedule, as they have defeated two Big 10 opponents (Northwestern, Illinois) on the road, while the Eagles' best win was against South Alabama.  We played on Georgia Southern in that 24-9 victory (as a 13.5-point favorite) over South Alabama, but that was a GREAT situational spot for the Eagles, as South Alabama was ripe for a letdown following its upset win (as a 28-point underdog) vs. Mississippi St.  But in Georgia Southern's other two games (vs. Savannah State and Louisiana Monroe), it failed to cover the spread by an average of 13.5 ppg.  And its average pointspread differential on the season is a poor -8.5 ppg.  In contrast, W. Michigan has covered by an average of 12.5 ppg, and falls into a 143-79 ATS 'momentum' system of mine.  Finally, the Broncos play this game with revenge from a 43-17 loss in Statesboro last year, and Sun Belt Conference teams (like Georgia Southern) are an awful 36% ATS the past 17 seasons vs. non-conference foes that play with revenge from a double-digit loss.  Lay the points with the Broncos.  NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Penn St.  The Wolverines are scoring a whopping 53 ppg, while Penn State is surrendering 27.33 ppg.  Those two facts portend a Michigan blowout on Saturday afternoon, as teams that average 48.34+ ppg are 65.4% ATS at home vs. foes that give up more than 25.5 ppg (at Game 3 forward).  Even worse for the Nittany Lions:  they've struggled vs. elite competition since 1996, as they're 18-43-1 ATS vs. foes that outscore their opponents by 13.8+ ppg, including 0-13 ATS as dogs of +6 or more if the Nittany Lions are off a win.  Take Michigan.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Pittsburgh.  After losing its opener, as a 3.5-point underdog to Georgia, the Tar Heels have ripped off 2 straight blowout wins:  48-23 vs. Illinois, and 56-28 vs. James Madison.  I look for UNC to make it 3 in a row vs. a Pitt team which has given up an average of 42 ppg in its two FBS games this season (and 30.33 ppg, overall), as the Panthers fall into negative 73-143 and 63-123 ATS systems of mine.  More bad news for Pitt:  it has covered just 27% of the time on the road the past 36 seasons, if its defensive scoring average was greater than 30 ppg.  Take North Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Colorado State.  These two teams met last season at Colorado State, and the Gophers won, 23-20, in overtime.  I look for Minny to win back to back seasons vs. the Rams, as Colorado State is a dreadful 5-26 SU and 8-23 ATS since 1986 on the road vs. .400 (or better) non-conference foes, including 0-5 ATS with revenge.  Additionally, Minnesota falls into 177-78, 290-193 and 192-107 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine, based on its 30-point win in its last game vs. Indiana State.  Lay the points with Minnesota.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners over Ohio State.  The Sooners stumbled out of the gate when they lost outright as a double-digit favorite in Week 1 to the Houston Cougars.  But this is a team which went 11-2 last season, and opened this year ranked in the Top 5.  The cupboard is far from bare for coach Bob Stoops.  If Oklahoma hadn't lost to Houston it would have opened as the betting favorite for this game.  But I believe that's created value for Oklahoma in this situation, and the Sooners fall into 61-15 and 127-63 ATS systems of mine.  And one of the things I also love to do is play on "Power Home Dogs" in non-conference games -- that is, teams that won more than 75% of their games the previous season (and who don't have a losing record in the current season).  Since 1980, these teams have cashed a whopping 75% of the time against opponents that have winning SU and ATS records.  With the Buckeyes coming into this game a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS, we'll fade Urban Meyer's crew and take the Sooners on Saturday.  NCAA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over New Mexico State.  Last week, the Aggies upset their cross-state rival, New Mexico, as double-digit HOME underdogs.  But off that big, emotional win, I look for a letdown, as the Aggies will have to travel 1500 miles to play a road game against a non-conference foe.  And, generally speaking, double-digit dogs off upset wins as double-digit underdogs have been money-burners over the past 36 years against non-conference foes.  That doesn't bode well for Doug Martin's men in Lexington, on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that the Aggies' best running back, Larry Rose III, missed their first two games, and his playing status is in doubt for this week, as well, as he is recovering from a hernia.  It's true that Mark Stoops' squad has yet to win this season, or cover the spread.  However, winless teams are an awesome 82% over the past 36 years when favored by 16+ points in non-conference games vs. foes off a SU/ATS win!  Additionally, the Wildcats fall into an 80-33 ATS system of mine that also plays on certain double-digit favorites off an ATS loss.  Take Kentucky.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Colorado.  The renaissance has happened in Ann Arbor faster than even Michigan's most diehard fans could have envisioned.  Coach Jim Harbaugh was hired following the 2014 season, so with little more than 1 season under his belt at the Big House, he has his Wolves ranked in the Top 4 in the Country.  The QB position was supposed to be one of the question marks for this season, but Wilton Speight was just named Big 10 Offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 312 yards and four TDs against UCF last Saturday.  Through 2 games, Speight has completed 70% of his passes for 457 yards, seven TDs, and just one interception.  And he's ranked 7th nationally in QB efficiency.  Surprisingly, he's tied (with John Navarre) for the most TDs in school history thru the first two games of the season!  Michigan's also racked up 114 points in its two victories, and that's the most points a Michigan team has scored in the first two weeks in over 100 years!  Overall, the Wolverines are 4th in the country in scoring offense, and have shown tremendous balance between rushing (425 yards) and passing (534 yards), which is always good to see.  This week, they'll welcome Big 12 member Colorado to Ann Arbor, and I fully expect another blowout, as Michigan falls into a 142-78 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams that have scored a lot of points.  Of course, it must be acknowledged that Colorado comes into this game off impressive 44-7 and 56-7 wins over Colorado St. and Idaho St.  But neither of those games were played at the opponent's field.  And the Buffaloes have been awful at an opponent's venue over the past 11 seasons, as they've won just 8 of 58 and have covered just 18 of those 58 games (including 0-13 ATS after scoring more than 31 points in their previous game).  Lay the points with Michigan.  NCAA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals over the Florida State Seminoles.  These two teams met last season, and the Seminoles won, 41-21, as 6.5-point favorites.  Overall, Florida State is 2-0 vs. the Cards since they began play as ACC Conference rivals, and 9-1 SU and 5-5 ATS dating back to 1981.  Last week, Louisville erupted for 62 points at Syracuse, and that followed a 70-point outburst in Week 1 vs. Charlotte.  Not surprisingly, the Cardinals lead all of college football with 754 yards per game, and 66 points per game.  And Louisville's offense is quite balanced, as it ranks #3 in rushing (343 ypg), and #6 in passing (411 ypg).  Faithful followers know that I absolutely LOVE playing on College Football teams that can score, and especially when they're installed as an underdog.  Indeed, consider that teams (like Florida State) playing away from home against a revenge-minded foe which scored 122+ points in its previous two games are 0-13 ATS since 1980!  And they've failed to cover by an average of 13.1 ppg.  I used this angle twice last season, and easily won both times, including Oklahoma State's upset of then-#5-ranked TCU, 49-29, as 6.5-point underdogs.  The Seminoles come into this game as the #2 team in the country.  But for all of their storied success, they've struggled greatly against teams that can score.  Dating back to 2006, the Seminoles are a pedestrian 15-14 SU vs. foes that average more than 35 ppg (even though they were favored in 21 of those 29 games), and a horrid 7-21-1 ATS.  And they're 0-7-1 ATS their last 8 vs. foes that score more than 7.9 ppg than the Seminoles.  Take Louisville.  NCAA Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Akron, as Marshall falls into 170-74 and 61-15 ATS systems of mine, based on its 62-0 win last week against Morgan St, as well as a 65% ATS system (since 1980), which plays on home teams in non-conference games off wins by 60+ points.  Indeed, last week, there were 3 teams at home (Michigan, Ohio St., Miami-Fla) that were off wins by 60+ points (and involved in non-conference games), and all 3 covered the spread.  Even though Akron was in a great situational spot last week vs. Wisconsin, given that the Badgers were ripe for a letdown following their upset win over LSU, the Zips failed to capitalize, and were blown out 54-10.  Akron QB Thomas Woodson was awful, and completed just 9 of 19 passes for a meager 108 yards.  And the Zips' defense was massacred for the 2nd straight game.  Admittedly, giving up 586 yards of offense to the Badgers can be excused, somewhat, since Wisky is a Top 10 team.  But Akron also surrendered 386 yards and 24 points to the VMI Keydets (the same VMI team that only scored 17 points the next week vs. Morehead St).  So, it seems as if Akron has been unable to find replacements for its 7 defensive starters from last season lost to graduation (including MAC Defensive Player of the Year Jatavis Brown).  With Marshall having covered 71% of its non-conference home games since 1999, and Akron an awful 9-22 ATS as double-digit road dogs vs. foes off a win, we'll lay the points with Doc Holliday's men on Saturday.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Virginia Tech.  This game will be played at Bristol Motor Speedway, 110 miles from Knoxville.  And there should be 150,000 (mostly Tennessee) fans in attendance, which will shatter the current record for attendance at a college football game (115,109 (Notre Dame at Michigan, 2013)).  Neither the Hokies nor the Volunteers were especially impressive last week.  Tennessee trailed Appalachian State 13-3 at halftime, before putting the Mountaineers away, in overtime, 20-13.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech overcame four fumbles to get by Liberty, 36-13.  I look for the Volunteers to blow out the Hokies, as Tennessee falls into 27-9, 29-7, 37-13 and 33-11 ATS systems of mine.  Additionally, Tennessee is a solid 42-24-2 ATS off a pointspread defeat when playing away from home.  It's true that SEC Conference teams were gawd-awful last week (4-8 ATS in non-conference games), but SEC teams have gone 147-88 ATS away from home against .500 (or better) teams in the regular season, if our SEC team was off a win, but an ATS loss.  Look for Tennessee to win impressively in the "Battle at Bristol."  Lay the points.  Non-Conference Favorite of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners + the points over Texas.  Perhaps no team had a more important victory for its program in Week 1 than did Texas, which avenged a 38-3 loss to Notre Dame in the previous season, by winning a thrilling game, 50-47, in overtime.  But even though the Longhorns were mightily impressive last week, we're going to fade them as big favorites this Saturday vs. the Miners.  Indeed, since 1980, home teams off an upset win as a home dog (of at least 2.5 points) in Week 1, have burned money in Week 2 a whopping 80% of the time.  And Texas has covered just 35.7% of the time over the past 36 years off an upset win, if their opponent is also off a win.  Take UTEP + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles minus the points over South Alabama.  Last week, the Jaguars pulled the biggest upset when they stunned Mississippi St., 21-20, as a 27.5-point underdog.  Can the Jaguars make it two in a row?  Not likely.  Consider that Sun Belt Conference underdogs of more than 3 points, are an awful 5-21 ATS off an upset win, if they're matched up against a conference rival also off a win, including 0-7 ATS at home.  Additionally, the Jaguars fall into negative 20-66 and 61-140 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset wins.  Take Georgia Southern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Florida Atlantic.  Last week, Miami scored 70 points in its 70-3 blowout win over Florida A&M, while the Owls won 38-30 over Southern Illinois.  And that offensive explosion by Miami has triggered several of my best systems, with records of 12-0, 83-26, 152-71 and 332-229 ATS since 1980.  Let's take a look at our 12-0 angle.  It hasn't lost in 36 years, and it simply plays on home favorites, priced from -20 to -40 points in Week 2, after scoring 63+ points in their season opener.  That bodes very well for the Hurricanes on Saturday.  And so does the fact that Miami annihilated the Owls, 44-20, last season, as Florida Atlantic is an awful 9-20 ATS when playing with revenge (including 1-8 ATS off a SU win).  Take Miami to rout the Owls.  NCAA Roadkill.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Akron Zips + the points over Wisconsin.  Last week, the Badgers were a 12.5-point underdog, but stunned then-5th-ranked LSU, 16-14, at Lambeau Field.  Wisconsin was unranked entering the game, but now sits at #10 in the AP Poll.  Unfortunately for the Badgers, favorites that won as a 6-point (or greater) underdog in their season opener have only covered 24.3% of the time in non-conference games the past 36 years!  And teams that won outright as a double-digit dog, but scored 17 points or less in the victory, have gone just 57-86 ATS their next game.  These two teams have met twice in the previous 13 years.  Wisky was favored similarly in both of those games (-24.5 in 2003; -26.5 in 2008), and each time, the Badgers failed to win by more than 21.  Take the points with Akron.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Duke.  It's true that Wake Forest struggled last week in its 7-3 win over Tulane.  But don't expect the Deacs to have a poor offensive showing this Saturday against the Blue Devils.  Indeed, Wake Forest has scored at least 21 points in each of the past 9 seasons vs. Duke (the only opponent against which Wake Forest has done that).  Last week, Duke took care of business vs. an out-manned NC Central team, as the Dukies won 49-6 against the Eagles.  But this will be a much more difficult test for David Cutcliffe's crew, especially as it will have to play this season with a redshirt freshman (Daniel Jones) at quarterback.  Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, their senior QB, Thomas Sirk, reinjured his Achilles tendon last month, after initially tearing it in February.  Sirk led the Devils in rushing (803 yards) AND passing (2625) last season, and accounted for 24 touchdowns.  Overall, the Devils returned just 11 starters (Wake returned 16), and also lost to graduation their best player on defense, Jeremy Cash.  Cash recorded at least 100 tackles in each of the past 3 seasons, including a staggering 18 tackles for loss last year, and will be suiting up for the Carolina Panthers this fall.  Wake Forest falls into 53-19 and 27-9 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in Week 2, and we'll grab the points with the road underdog on Saturday.  ACC Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Central Michigan.  The Cowboys returned 10 offensive starters from last season's team which averaged over 39 points per game.  And Okie State picked up where it left off last season by busting out for 61 points last week vs. Southeastern Louisiana.  And when the Cowboys get rolling offensively, they tend to keep it going, as they're 34-7 ATS after scoring 50+ points in their previous game, including 8-0 ATS since November 17, 2012.  This week, Mike Gundy's men will welcome the Chippewas to Stillwater following the Chips' 49-3 victory last Thursday against the Presbyterian Blue Hose.  However, I expect it to be a rude welcome, as Mid-American Conference teams have been huge money-burners when playing away from home vs. the Big 12, as they’re 4-41 SU and 13-28 ATS the past 21 years.  Take Oklahoma St.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over NC State.  Both of these teams opened their 2016 campaign with blowout victories.  NC State walloped William & Mary, 48-14, while East Carolina crushed Western Carolina, 52-7.  The Wolfpack have been installed as a road favorite, but they've been dreadful over the years when favored on the road.  Since 2002, NC State has covered just 5 of 20 times as road chalk.  Meanwhile, East Carolina has been at its best as underdogs in the regular season vs. non-conference foes.  Since 1985, the Pirates are 72-46 ATS including a perfect 8-0 ATS since 2013.  Finally, East Carolina falls into 96-39 and 60-12 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Pirates + the points.