Sports Picks & Predictions

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks + the points over the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns.  The Warhawks lost last year to their rival, 30-3, so they'll be looking for some payback on Saturday.  And, like many heated rivalries, the revenge-minded team in this series has gone 12-7 ATS, including 10-2 ATS as an underdog.  Even better:  the road team in this series is a perfect 15-0 ATS when not laying more than 4 points!  Finally, Monroe checks into this game off back to back losses.  But it's a sensational 20-5 ATS on the Conference road when it's lost its previous two games.  Take Monroe + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over TCU.  The Cowboys blew out Pittsburgh last week in the Steel City, 59-21.  And the game wasn't even that close, as Okie State was up 49-7 late in the 2nd quarter before calling off the dogs.  The Cowboys have now scored 59, 44, and 59 in their first three games this season.  They've also won by margins of 35, 37, and 38 points.  Not surprisingly, the Cowboys are a perfect 3-0 ATS.  They'll now take on a fellow Top 25 foe in Big 12 Conference rival TCU.  The Horned Frogs have lost the last two meetings to the Cowboys, and four of the five meetings since TCU joined the Conference in 2012.  Based on their season statistics-to-date, the Cowboys fall into several of my best systems, with records of 111-43, 84-26 and 94-22 ATS.  Additionally, Oklahoma State has been terrific following games in which it scored 50+ points, as it's 35-8 ATS since 1987, including 14-1 ATS if the Cowboys are in off back to back SU/ATS wins.  The Cowboys are also 44-25 ATS when priced from -10.5 to -24 points.  Finally, TCU is 4-10 ATS its last 14 games, while Big 12 Conference teams are a poor 48-78 vs. foes off a win that average 44+ points per game on offense.  Take Oklahoma State.  Big 12 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks plus the points over Central Michigan.  The Red Hawks lost their third straight game ATS last week when they were upset, 21-17, by Cincinnati.  But unlike their first three games (where they were favored), the Red Hawks are an underdog at CMU this Saturday.  And Miami's 10-2 ATS their last 12 as an underdog.  Even better:  Mid-American Conference road underdogs are 60-34 ATS on a 3-game ATS losing streak.  Take Miami.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Central Florida.  Both of these teams were off last week (and Central Florida actually hasn't played since August 31, due to the hurricanes).  Maryland comes in off impressive wins over Texas (51-41) and Towson (63-17), while the Knights triumphed in their initial game, 61-17, vs. Florida International.  Last season, these two teams met in Orlando, and the Terps won, 30-24.  I look for them to win again, as home favorites of -10 points or less (or PK) have covered 69.5% in the regular season since 1984 vs. non-conference foes. Additionally, Maryland is 28-13-1 ATS off back to back wins, when favored by more than 3 points.  And they also fall into 300-205, 84-26 and 187-89 ATS systems of mine.  Lay it.  NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michgian Eagles minus the points over Ohio.  The Eagles had last week off following their upset win at Rutgers in Week 2.  And they're a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS on the season.  The Eagles have largely relied on their defense, which is giving up just 10 ppg on the season (Ohio, on the other hand, is giving up 24.67 ppg).  We'll lay the points with Eastern Michigan, as home teams that give up 10.5 or less points per game, are 67% ATS since 1990 at Game 3 forward, if they're undefeated both SU and ATS, and not laying 4+ points.  Take Eastern Michigan.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over New Mexico State, as the Trojans fall into 91-23, 165-92, 58-7 and 83-45 ATS Systems of mine.  Both Troy St. and New Mexico St. are 1-1 this season after posting wins last last week.  The Trojans blew out Alabama St, 34-7, at home, while the Aggies went on the road to upset their cross-state rival, New Mexico, 30-28.  Unfortunately for the Aggies, Sun Belt teams are 0-9 ATS in home conference games off an upset win, if they're getting more than 3 points vs. foes also off a win.  Additionally, the Aggies have been destroyed each of the last three years by Troy, and have lost by an average of 36 ppg.  Take the Trojans.  Conf. Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks minus the points over Cincinnati.  To say that Miami will be out for revenge tonight is a massive understatement.  That's because the Red Hawks have lost the last 11 meetings to the Bearcats.  But they were underdogs in each of those 11 games.  Indeed, the last time they were actually favored vs. Cincy was in 2005, and they blew them out, 44-16.  They're favored again this year, and I love Miami to register another blowout, as it falls into a 60-28 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, it's worth noting the Bearcats are a horrid 28-48-2 ATS since 1984 away from home when installed as an underdog vs. non-conference foes, while Miami's 6-0 ATS its last 6 when playing with revenge vs. non-conference foes.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Clemson.  The Cardinals and Tigers each recorded big wins last week.  Louisville outlasted North Carolina, 47-35, while Clemson defeated Auburn, 14-6.  Last year, the Tigers beat the Cardinals, 42-36, en route to a 14-0 Championship season.  And the Tigers are off to a 2-0 SU/ATS start this season.  But that sets up Clemson in a nasty situation on Saturday afternoon.  Since 1981, defending National Champs are a woeful 0-9 ATS away from home, if they're off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, unrested, and not favored by 7+ points.  That doesn't bode well for Clemson vs. Louisville.  And neither does the fact that it hasn't given up 7+ points in either of its first two games.  Indeed, since 1982, teams off back-to-back games where they didn't give up 7+ points, have covered just 9 of 48 road games vs. foes off a SU/ATS win by more than 7 points.  Take Louisville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats minus the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons and Wildcats are both 0-2 ATS on the season following upset losses by each team last week.  Northwestern was drilled 41-17, by Duke, while Bowling Green lost, 35-27, to South Dakota.  We'll lay the points with Northwestern, as favorites of -21+ points, off 21-point (or greater) upset losses, have covered over 65% of the time since 1983.  Take Northwestern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Tulsa, as Tulsa falls into a negative 46-102 ATS system of mine which plays against teams with poor defenses.  And the Golden Hurricane's defense has been a sieve so far this season, as it's given up over 50 ppg.  Unfortunately for Tulsa, teams off wins, that give up more than 43.3 ppg (at Game 3 forward), have covered just 31% since 1980 if they won their previous game.  Even worse:  Toledo's been one of the best home teams (ATS) in College Football over the years, as it's gone 53-35 ATS its last 88, including 14-2 ATS vs. non-winning teams off a straight-up win.  Finally, Toledo has cashed 73.6% vs. non-conference foes when priced as a favorite of 23 or less points.  Take Toledo.  NCAA Roadkill Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over LSU.  Mississippi State is averaging 53 ppg after winning (and covering) their first two games by 49-0 and 57-21 counts.   Off those two big wins, we'll grab the points with Miss State, as teams off back to back SU/ATS wins have cashed 66% since 1980 if they average 45+ ppg, are matched up against an opponent off a SU win, and aren't favored by more than 3 points.  Take Mississippi State.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over Western Kentucky.  These two teams met in the Conference USA Championship game last season, and the Hilltoppers downed La Tech, 58-44.  But I look for the Bulldogs to get a measure of revenge on Saturday, as teams playing with revenge from a post-season defeat are 27-11 ATS when priced from -3.5 to +7.5 points.  Moreover, the Bulldogs were blown out at home last week, 57-21, by Mississippi State, while the Hilltoppers lost, 20-7, to Illinois.  But La Tech is a super 10-0 ATS off a home loss, if they're playing an opponent also off a defeat.  Take Louisiana Tech.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Middle Tennessee State, as Minnesota falls into a 112-35 ATS System of mine.  The Gophers are off to a 2-0 start this season, under 1st year coach PJ Fleck, following their blowout, upset win at Oregon State last week, 48-14 (as a 2.5-point underdog).  And this is the first time in over 60 years that a Gophers squad has started 2-0 under a new head coach.  Minnesota has dominated all facets of the game, as they outgained the Beavers last week, 411 yards to 225, and Buffalo, 408-262 the week before that.  Now, Minnesota returns home for the last game on its non-conference slate.  And the Gophers have excelled at home vs. non-conference foes over the years, and especially when matched up against non-winning foes.  In that situation, Minnesota's 28-7 SU and 24-11 ATS.  In the Blue Raiders' last game, 3rd year-QB Brent Stockstill (son of Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill) sustained an injury to his left (throwing) shoulder, but remained in the contest through its conclusion.  He underwent an MRI earlier this week, but the results have not yet been made public.  I do expect him to play, but don't necessarily expect him to be at full strength, so that's a negative for Middle Tenn.  Moreover, even with Stockstill in the lineup, the Blue Raiders' offense has underwhelmed this season.  Middle Tennessee is averaging just 18 ppg, on just 289 yards of offense.  In contrast, Minnesota is averaging 32.5 ppg, on 409.5 yards per game.   It also doesn't hurt that coach Fleck has experience vs. this Stockstill-led Middle Tennessee squad, as his former team (Western Michigan) defeated Middle Tenn., 45-31, two seasons ago in the Bahamas Bowl.  Finally, Conference USA teams are poor 8-41 SU and 18-31 ATS in the regular season vs. Big 10 Conference foes.  Lay the points with Minnesota.  HIGH ROLLER WINNER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over UCLA.  The Bruins are 2-0 on the season, after crushing Hawaii, 56-23.  That was UCLA's 2nd straight home game.  The Bruins will take to the road for the first time this season, and they'll have the disadvantage of facing a well-rested Tigers squad, which was off last week after routing Louisiana-Monroe, 37-29, in their first game.  I look for the Tigers to register an upset, as UCLA's a wallet-busting 14-34-1 ATS away from home off back to back wins, including 0-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  And it's 0-9 ATS its last 9 after scoring more than 35 points in a SU/ATS Win the previous week.  Additionally, the Tigers fall into a 17-0 ATS system of mine, based on their performance in their first game.  Take Memphis + the points.  NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Boise State, as UNM falls into 195-134, 103-37 and 124-45 ATS Systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 195-134 ATS angle.  That plays on road underdogs, priced from +3.5 to +17.5 points in conference games, off upset home losses, that have a win percentage of .333 (or better).  Last week, New Mexico fell to 1-1 on the season when it lost at home, 30-28, to New Mexico State, as a 7.5-point favorite.  But I love the Lobos to bounce back tonight, as they're 35-17-2 ATS off a home loss, including 10-1 ATS if they were upset in that previous home defeat.  Even better:  Boise's an awful 5-24 ATS its last 29 at home when laying 11+ points.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Our selection is on Arizona St.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over South Carolina.  Last year, the Missouri Tigers suffered through a 4-8 season -- their first year under coach Barry Odom.  But Mizzou got Odom's sophomore campaign off on the right foot, as it blew out Missouri State, 72-43, last week.  In that game, Drew Lock compiled record numbers for a Missouri QB, as he threw for 521 yards and seven touchdowns, besting the previous marks of 480 yards and five TDs.  Now, Missouri will welcome fellow SEC foe South Carolina to Columbia, and the Tigers have been installed as a small favorite.  Like  Missouri, the Gamecocks won their opener, in upset fashion over the NC State Wolfpack.  Unfortunately for South Carolina, since 1980, single-digit road underdogs are an awful 23-39 ATS vs. conference foes that scored 60+ in their previous game, including 0-7 ATS if our road dog was off an upset win.  That doesn't bode well for South Carolina this Saturday evening.  And neither does the fact that South Carolina is an awful 4-9 ATS off an upset win, including 0-5 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win.  Finally, SEC Conference teams are a poor 21.4% ATS since 1980 off an upset win over a non-conference foe, if they're matched up against a rival SEC Conference foe playing with revenge.  With Missouri indeed playing with revenge from a 10-point loss to the Gamecocks last season, we'll lay the points with the Tigers.  Take Missouri.  NCAA Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Our selection is on SMU.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 6 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack minus the points over Marshall.  NC State was stunned last week when it was upset, 35-28, as a 7.5-point favorite by South Carolina, while Marshall pulled an upset of its own against Miami-Ohio.  The good news for NC State is that it generally rebounds at home off losses, as it's 48-34 ATS, including 18-6 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  More good news:  since 1997, College Football teams off season-opening upset losses have cashed 83% vs. foes off season-opening upset wins!  Last year, for example, Mississippi State rebounded off its Week 1 loss to South Alabama (as a 27.5-point favorite) to blow out South Carolina, which had upset Vanderbilt to open its season the week before.  Finally, since 1996, Conference USA road underdogs off a SU/ATS win have cashed just 30.7% vs. non-conference foes.  I look for the Wolfpack to bounce back BIG on this Saturday.  Take North Carolina State.  NCAA Football Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Army Black Knights minus the points over Buffalo.  Last year, Army went into Buffalo, and was upset, 23-20, as a 13.5-point favorite.  I look for the Black Knights to avenge that defeat, as they fall into 153-53 and 295-201 ATS systems of mine.  Additionally, since 1980, .500 (or better) teams that lost the previous meeting on the road as a 10-point (or greater favorite), have cashed 80% vs. non-conference foes off a loss.  Take Army.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Our selection is on Duke.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 7:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies have long been a much better pointspread team at home than away from College Station.  And, perhaps, their worst pointspread role is as an underdog away from home when they're not off back to back losses.  Since November 1999, they're a horrid 8-37 ATS, including 0-17 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +8 points.  Yikes!  That doesn't bode well for A&M on Sunday.  And neither does the fact that they defeated the Bruins in College Station last season, 31-24.  The Bruins are a solid 57% ATS when playing with revenge and favored by 4+ points.  And they're an awesome 30-10 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes over the past 37 seasons when not laying 14+ points (and 9-1 ATS their last 10).  Take UCLA.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders + the points over Vanderbilt.  It's hard to have confidence in a Vandy squad installed as a road favorite in its season opener, given that the Commies have lost five straight season openers (by an average of 8.6 ppg) -- and they were favored in two of those five games.  Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has won its last four openers, by an average of 46.5 ppg.  The Blue Raiders certainly hope that the "3rd time will be the charm" on Saturday.  And that's because they've lost the past two seasons to the Commodores.  Last year, the game was played in Nashville, and Vandy won 47-24, as a 3-point favorite.  But that score was somewhat misleading, as the Blue Raiders, behind the arm of Brent Stockstill (the coach's son), actually out-yarded Vanderbilt, 495 to 344.  But they lost the turnover battle, and also killed themselves with penalties.  I love Middle Tennessee to avenge that loss and upset the Commodores on Saturday, as they fall into 38-18 and 80-43 ATS systems of mine.  Take Middle Tennessee St.  NCAA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Southern Mississippi.  Both of these teams went 7-6 last season.  But the Wildcats will be the much better team this season, as they're returning 17 starters, while Southern Miss only returns 12.  Kentucky has been installed as a double-digit road favorite in this season opener for both teams.  And that doesn't bode well for the Golden Eagles, as double-digit home dogs are an awful 61-84, 42% ATS, in season openers, including 36% ATS if they had a winning record the previous season.  These two teams also met in the season opener last year.  That game was played at Kentucky, but Southern Miss upset the Wildcats, 44-35, as a 3.5-point underdog.  I look for Kentucky to avenge that upset loss, as they fall into 55-14 and 59-30 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Additionally, the Golden Eagles are an awful 3-10 ATS as home underdogs, priced from +7 to +20, while Kentucky is 30-2 straight-up, and 20-12 ATS when favored by 8+ points.  Finally, since 1990, teams from major conferences (like the SEC) have cashed 58% when playing with revenge vs. foes from minor conferences (like Conference USA), provided our revenger isn't getting 14+ points.  Lay the points with Kentucky.  NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over the Colorado Buffaloes.  We cashed our NCAA Game of the Week on Colorado State -3.5 over Oregon State last Saturday, as CSU blew out the Beavers, 58-27.  They'll have a big advantage vs. their cross-state rival, Colorado, as the Buffaloes won't have had any games yet this season to work out any kinks.  Indeed, over the past 35 years, teams playing their first game have covered just 41% vs. foes that covered the point spread by 7+ points in their season opener the previous week.  Even better:  if our team playing its season opener is priced from -3 to -14.5 points, then our angle zooms from 59% to 83% (and 89% if our 'play-on' team (here, Colorado State), is playing with revenge).  Speaking of revenge, it's not surprising that this "Centennial State" rivalry has seen the revenge-minded team generally get the cash.  These teams have met every season for the past 22 years, and the team that lost the previous year has gone 15-5-1 ATS, including 8-0-1 ATS when priced from -3 to +6.5 points!  With the Rams playing with revenge from a 44-7 loss last season, we'll pull the trigger on the underdog, and grab the points with Colorado State.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Central Florida.  Last year, these two teams met in Miami, and UCF blew out the Panthers, 53-14.  And that continued the trend in this Sunshine State rivalry where the road team has not covered in of the last four seasons.  This game will be played in Orlando, and I look for Florida International to avenge that loss here, as road teams playing with revenge from a game in which they gave up 50+ points have cashed 67% over the past 23 seasons in their season opener.  Even worse:  Central Florida is a wallet-busting 27% ATS since 1999 when priced between -7.5 and -23 points vs. a foe playing with revenge.  Finally, over the past nine years, road dogs have cashed a staggering 72.2% of the time vs. non-conference foes when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 30 points (including 80% ATS if their opponent scored 50+ points in the previous year's meeting)!   Take Florida International + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Month for August.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams minus the points over Oregon State.  The Rams ended the 2016 regular season on a 7-game ATS win streak (before getting upset by Idaho in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 61-50).  I look for Colorado State to cover the pointspread for their eighth straight regular season game in this, their home opener of 2017.  Indeed, the Rams are a perfect 4-0 ATS their last four lined home openers, and they're 9-1 ATS their last 10 home games vs. non-conference foes (and 18-7 ATS their last 25).  Meanwhile, the Beavers are a wallet-busting 9-19 ATS on the road vs. non-conference opposition.  Finally, Oregon State has lost its last 13 road games, straight-up, which doesn't bode well for covering the pointspread here, given the relatively short number.  Take Colorado State.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Jan. 9, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over the Alabama Crimson Tide.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, January 2nd, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers over Oklahoma, as Auburn falls into several of my best Bowl systems, with records of 85-34, 71-31, 44-15 and 60-35 ATS.  There are several reasons why I love Auburn in this game, but perhaps the most important is Auburn's stellar defense.  It's allowed just 15.6 ppg against opponents that average 28.1 ppg!  In contrast, Oklahoma has allowed 29.7 ppg (against opponents that average 32.9 ppg).  Thus, Auburn's defense has held its foes to 55.5% of their point production while Oklahoma's stop unit has only held its foes to 90.2% of their offensive production.  That's a huge difference.  Indeed, College Bowl teams have cashed 77% over the past 20 seasons if their defense surrendered, on average, at least 10 less points than their foe, and they weren't favored by 6+ points in the game (including a perfect 12-0-1 ATS the last 12).  Even worse for the Sooners:  Big 12 Conference teams have covered just 6 of their last 29 Bowl games vs. SEC Conference foes, including 0-8 ATS since 2007 if the Big 12 Conference team's defense gave up 25+ ppg!  Take Auburn.  NCAA Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over the Iowa Hawkeyes.  The Big 10 was thought by many to be the best conference in College Football this season, but its member schools have not played well in the post-season.  They've gone 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS, with its two best teams -- Michigan and Ohio State -- both suffering upset losses.  The Big 10 has also underperformed vs. the SEC in Bowl games, and especially in this price range.  Since 1989, the Big 10 has gone 9-18 SU/ATS when priced from PK to +4 in the Bowls vs. the SEC.  It's true that the Iowa Hawkeyes are on a 3-game win streak, while the Gators have dropped their last two (including a 54-16 loss to #1 Alabama in the SEC Title Game).  And that may lead many bettors to plunk down money on Iowa at the betting window.  But in the post-season, teams off 3+ wins have actually cashed just 18 of 49 games vs. opponents off back to back losses (and just one of eight (12%) against foes with a great defense which gives up less than 18 ppg)!  And Florida's also an awesome 63.3% over the past 21 seasons vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over Ohio State.  At this stage of the season, it's not surprising when both teams have solid defenses.  And that's the case this evening.  Ohio State gives up just 14.2 ppg, while Clemson gives up a few more, but still a very respectable 18.4 ppg.  In Bowl games, it's dangerous to lay points in games between two very good defensive teams, as favorites -- not playing on their home field -- have covered just 31% of the time over the past 19 seasons in games between teams that each give up less than 18.5 ppg.  Additionally, Clemson's a perfect 9-0 ATS its last nine games away from home when playing an opponent which gives up less than 17.5 ppg.  Take the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 11 am, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Georgia Tech.  The Wildcats opened the season with three straight pointspread defeats.  But they got into the win column in Vegas with a 17-10 victory, as a 2-point favorite, vs. South Carolina in Week 4.  And that started a terrific run through the end of the season which saw them go 7-1 ATS vs. Division 1 schools, with their only pointspread defeat by a mere half-point vs. Georgia.  I definitely won't step in front of Kentucky, as an underdog, here.  And especially since they stunned Louisville as a 28.5-point underdog in their last game.  For technical support, consider that teams that won outright as underdogs of more than 14 points in their final regular season game have cashed 73.3% in the Bowls over the past 19 seasons (including Southern Miss, two weeks ago, in this season's New Orleans Bowl).  Take Kentucky.

At 11 am, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over LSU.  It's true that Lamar Jackson & Co. stumbled badly down the stretch.  Louisville lost its last two games -- 36-10 at Houston, and 41-38, at home, vs. rival Kentucky.  We had one of our biggest plays of the season on Houston +17.5 against Louisville, so that game didn't really surprise me.  But even though we didn't play the game, the Cardinals' loss to Kentucky, as a 28.5-favorite, certainly did raise my eyebrows.  However, if there's one thing I've learned about College Bowl games, it is that teams that stumble down the stretch often bounce back in the Bowls.  Indeed, Bowl underdogs off back to back upset losses have covered 64.7% over the past 37 years.  Take Louisville.  Even better, underdogs of +3 or more points, off a loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 21+ points, have covered 84.6% in Bowl games over the past 13 seasons vs. foes off a SU/ATS win (including 2-0 already this season with North Texas and South Carolina getting the $$$).  Take Louisville.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Florida State.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars + the points over Air Force.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Tennessee.  The line has reached double-digits (due to Nebraska's QB issues), but we'll still pull the trigger on the underdog Huskers, as it's tough to turn down this amount of points in a bowl game.  And especially when our team has the vastly superior defense (Nebraska gives up 22.7 ppg against opponents that averaged 28.2; Tennessee 29.2 ppg against opponents that averaged 26.6).  Indeed, Nebraska falls into 28-5 and 34-8 ATS systems of mine that play on certain underdogs with good defenses.  Take the Cornhuskers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Stanford.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks + the points over Virginia Tech.  Both teams lost their last game of the season.  The Hokies lost by 7, as a double-digit underdog vs. Clemson, while Arkansas fell, 28-24, at Missouri, as a 7.5-point road favorite.  I look for the Razorbacks to get the $$$ on Thursday, as College teams off an upset road loss have covered 71% since 1981 as underdogs in the post-season against foes not off a pointspread defeat.  Additionally, the Razorbacks are 9-0 ATS their last nine games off an upset loss, if they're matched up against a foe off a loss.  Take Arkansas.  NCAA High Roller!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over South Florida.  The Bulls lost their head coach, Willie Taggart, to the University of Oregon, so co-offensive coordinator T.J. Wiest will serve as the head coach for this ballgame.  Other Bowl schools that saw their coaches depart this month include Houston (Tom Herman) and Temple (Matt Rhule), and both Houston and Temple lost outright as favorites in their bowl game.  Don't be surprised if South Florida does, as well.  Meanwhile, South Carolina was able to win four of its final six games to reach the .500 mark, at 6-6.  And, as I mentioned yesterday in our discussion of the Indiana/Utah game, College Football teams have done terrific in the Bowls if they didn't own a winning record.  Dating back to 2002, our non-winning bowl teams have cashed 67.2% vs. winning opposition, including 7-1 ATS this season, and 34-13 ATS as an underdog of +10 or less points.  Take the Gamecocks + the points.  NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies minus the points over Kansas State.  The Wildcats upset TCU, 30-6, as a 4-point road underdog to end their season, while Texas A&M lost its last game, 54-39, at home vs. LSU.  Unfortunately for the Wildcats, underdogs off an upset win away from home have burned money in the post-season against foes off a loss by 6+ points.  Since 1980, our dogs have cashed just 28% of the time.  Additionally, the Aggies will have the benefit of the home crowd on Wednesday night, as NRG Stadium is a mere 90 minutes distance from College Station.  Take Texas A&M.  NCAA Favorite of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Utah.  The Hoosiers enter today's game with a 6-6 record, while Utah is 8-4.  And with the proliferation of Bowl games, we're increasingly seeing teams without winning records get invitations to play in these games.  At first, I thought it was sort of ridiculous to have non-winning teams get awarded a Bowl bid.  But then I decided to just make $$$ off of it, and it wasn't too surprising to see these bad teams do extremely well at the betting window.  Of course there could be several reasons why this happens, but perhaps the most simple is also the most accurate:  these teams just want to prove they're deserving of being in the game.  Dating back to 2002, our non-winning bowl teams have cashed 66% vs. winning opposition, including 5-1 ATS this season, and 32-13 ATS as an underdog of +10 or less points.  Even worse for Utah:  it's an awful 21-48 ATS since 1994 when priced from -3 to -9.5 points, including 8-24 ATS away from home.  Take Indiana.  NCAA Football High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Miami.  We played against WVU in its last regular season game.  The Mountaineers were favored by 17 vs. Baylor, but won by just three points, and failed to cover by 14 points.  Meanwhile, Miami cashed its last regular season game with a 40-21 blowout of Duke, as a 16-point favorite.  But teams off ATS wins in their most recent game have covered just 41% in the Bowls over the past 36 years, if they're matched up against an opponent which failed to cover by 14+ points in its previous game.  These two schools actually have a long history vs. one another -- mainly when both were members of the Big East Conference.  They've met 13 times over the previous 25 seasons, and the underdog has covered 10 of 13.  Finally, Miami falls into negative 79-130 and 20-51 ATS systems of mine that play against certain Bowl teams off a double-digit win.  Take the Mountaineers.  NCAA Football Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Washington State.  The dominant storyline, of course, for this game is the suspension of the Minnesota players.  This happens to at least one team every Bowl season, and it's been my perception that the teams with the suspended player(s) rally together, and cover the pointspread more often than not.  For example, in the Alamo Bowl last year, TCU played without QB Trevone Boykin, who was suspended for punching a policeman.  The pointspread was severely adjusted due to his absence, but TCU didn't end up even needing the points, as back-up QB Bram Kohlhausen was spectacular (351 yds, 4 TDs) in leading the Frogs to an upset win.  Similarly, the pointspread on this game was adjusted following the suspensions, and I'm more than happy to take the points with the Gophers.  Washington State dropped its final two games of the season (at Colorado, and at home to Washington).  But since 1984, favorites with a .600 (or better) record are a woeful 6-24 ATS off back to back losses to end their regular season, including 0-7 ATS when favored by more than 7 points.  Take Minnesota.  NCAA Football Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Temple.  It's true that Temple has a stellar season.  The Owls were 10-3 straight-up, compared to Wake Forest's 6-6 record.  But Temple head coach Matt Rhule left to take the same position at Baylor.  That distraction will hurt the Owls in today's game.  Additionally, the Demon Deacons lost their last three games of the season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Wake Forest today.  But NCAA Football teams on a 3-game (or worse) losing streak have gone 65.2% ATS in the post-season since 1980 when getting more than 3 points.  Take Wake Forest.  College Football Underdog of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Army.  These two teams met earlier this season, and North Texas won handily, 35-18, as 17.5-point underdogs.  And that game was played at Army.  This afternoon's game will be played in Dallas, just a stone's throw away from North Texas' campus in Denton.  We'll grab the double-digits with North Texas, as College Football teams (like Army) with a .900 (or worse) record are an awful 36-57 ATS when favored by 10+ points in the post-season.  Take North Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, on Monday, our selection is on the Miami Ohio Red Hawks + the points over Mississippi State.  Miss State comes into this game off a 35-point upset win over their rival, Ole Miss.  But that shocking win only raised Miss State's record to a woeful 5-7 on the season.  So, the Bulldogs, along with Hawaii, were one of the two teams to make a Bowl game with a losing record.  But, unlike Hawaii (on which we played on Saturday), Mississippi State has been installed as a big favorite.  But teams favored by 7+ points in a Bowl game have covered a paltry 40.0% over the past 37 years when matched up against an opponent with a superior record, including 0-2 already this season (Colo State, Louisiana Tech).  That doesn't bode well for the Bulldogs on Monday morning.  And neither does the fact that College Football teams, off a cover by 10+ points, are 37% ATS as Double-Digit Bowl Favorites since 1999.   Take Miami-Ohio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over Middle Tennessee State.  This game will be played in Honolulu, at Aloha Field, so the Warriors will enjoy the home field advantage.  And it's tough to go against a team playing at home in a bowl game, and especially if wasn't an awful team against the spread during the season (and Hawaii was not).  Indeed, teams playing at home, with a .400 (or better) ATS season win percentage, have gone 8-0 ATS in the Bowls when getting more than 3 points, and have covered by an average of 13.44 ppg.  Take Hawaii.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Ohio.  Both of these teams lost their most recent game.  The Bobcats fell, 29-23, to Western Michigan, while Troy State lost, 28-24, as a 7-point favorite at Georgia Southern.  But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with the Trojans, as they're 8-0 ATS their last 8 off an upset loss.  And they also fall into a 94-54 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses immediately before a bowl game.  Take Troy State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on Navy + the points over Louisiana Tech.  The Midshipmen got bit by the injury bug, which was the primary reason they lost their last two games -- vs. Temple in the American Athletic Conf. Title Game and, then, vs. Army a week later.  Of course, the pointspread has been adjusted upward to account for the injuries, and I'm more than happy to grab the points with the underdog in this Armed Forces Bowl.  Navy falls into a 48-22 ATS Bowl system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Moreover, the Middies have been the best team in college football ATS when playing away from home over the past 25 years.  Since 1991, Navy is 106-55 ATS away from home, including 26-12 ATS off back to back losses, and 74-33 ATS as an underdog.  Take Navy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Old Dominion.  Eastern Michigan falls into several of my favorite Bowl Systems, with records of 107-50, 121-67 and 136-89 ATS.  Additionally, Eastern Michigan plays with revenge from a 38-34 home loss suffered to Old Dominion last season, and a 17-3 loss to the Monarchs the year before.  But underdogs of more than 3 points are an awesome 64.2% ATS in the post-season since 1994 when playing with revenge!  Take Eastern Michigan + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over the Colorado State Rams, as Idaho falls into 28-7, 38-16 and 16-0 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset wins (Colorado State stunned San Diego State, 63-31, as an 11.5-point underdog in its last game).  Let's take a look at our 28-7 ATS angle.  That goes against teams that won outright as underdogs of more than 10 points, if they scored 48+ in that victory.  And if our 'play-against' team (here, Colorado State) has a W/L percentage of .583 (or better) than our 28-7 angle zooms to 12-1 ATS.  The Vandals certainly will be the team most in the stands will be cheering for this evening, as the game will be played less than 300 miles from Idaho's main campus in Moscow.  And we'll grab the points with Idaho.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, in the Poinsettia Bowl, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over BYU.  The Cougars have won four straight games, while Wyoming's dropped its last two.  But none of the Cougars' last four opponents (Cincinnati, Southern Utah, Massachusetts, Utah State) qualified for a Bowl game.  In contrast, Wyoming's two losses to end the season were against New Mexico and San Diego State.  And both of those teams played in a Bowl game.  One of the things I like to do in the post-season is wager on teams off back to back losses, if they're playing a favored opponent off 3+ wins.  Since 1980, our underdogs in this situation have cashed 72% of the time!  Take Wyoming + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers finished the season with a better record (both SU and ATS) than Memphis, but that largely was due to a much easier schedule.  Western Kentucky benefited from playing in a weaker conference (Conference USA) than did Memphis (American Athletic).  Indeed, the 2nd best team (Louisiana Tech) this season in Conference USA would have rated 6th or 7th this year in the American Athletic Conference.  When the Hilltoppers stepped outside of their conference this season, they fared very poorly, with just one ATS win in five games.  Even worse:  in the regular season, they also failed to cover the spread against the teams rated #2 and #3 in power rating in Conference USA (LA Tech and Middle Tennessee St), though they did avenge their regular season defeat with a home win in the Conference USA Title game vs. LA Tech.  Regardless, much of Western Kentucky's success this season was against very soft competition; they didn't cover the spread in any of their four games when they weren't favored by more than 11 points.  Take Memphis + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane laid an egg (at least in Las Vegas) in its last game, as it was favored by 22.5, yet only won by three points vs. Cincinnati, 40-37.  Now, Tulsa is laying double digits to Central Michigan, notwithstanding the fact that the Golden Hurricane's defense leaves much to be desired.  Indeed, Tulsa's giving up 31.5 ppg (against opponents that score two points less, on average), and that number soars to 36.5 ppg away from home.  Generally speaking, it's a real bad idea to lay points with bad defensive clubs in bowl games.  For example, teams that give up 23+ ppg have covered just 25% of Bowl games if laying more than a TD to a team that scores at least 25 ppg.  Grab the points with Central Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over New Mexico.  These two teams know each other well.  They've played twice in the past four seasons, with each winning outright as an underdog on the other's home field.  So that bodes well for Texas San Antonio this afternoon, as this game will be played at New Mexico's stadium, in Albuquerque.  And I won't pass up the points with the Roadrunners, as they're a much better defensive club than New Mexico.  The Lobos are giving up a whopping 32.4 ppg (more than 5 points more than their opponents would otherwise average).  In contrast, Texas San Antonio has held its opponents to 2.5 ppg BELOW their offensive averages.  It's true that Texas San Antonio comes into this game with just a 6-6 record (compared to 8-4 for New Mexico).  But underdogs that didn't have a winning regular season have gone 37-20 ATS in the post-season vs. foes that did have a winning year.  Take Texas San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over the West Virginia Mountaineers.  Yes, it's true that Baylor has lost its last five games, both SU and ATS.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Jim Grobe's troops in their final game of the season, on the road, in Morgantown, against the 9-2 Mountaineers.  But consider that, over the past 26 years, College Football teams have covered 67% of the time off 3 SU/ATS losses in their final game vs. .600 (or better) foes off a win.  We saw an example of this just last weekend when Syracuse (+25), which had lost its previous 3 games by an average of 33.33 ppg, lost to Pitt by just 15 points to cover the spread.  I like Baylor to cover this inflated pointspread as well, as it falls into 124-75, 65-29 and 62-29 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off blowout losses.  Take the Bears + the points.  Dog Shocker!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks + the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  Both teams come into this game on 3-game ATS win streaks.  Monroe did lose its last game, straight-up, 42-17, at Appalachian St, but covered the 26.5-point spread.  Meanwhile, the Rajin' Cajuns pulled a big upset in their last game, as they won outright, 24-19, as a 6-point home underdog to Arkansas State.  That upset win sets up the Cajuns in several negative 'letdown' systems of mine, with records of 123-194, 67-114 and 54-107 ATS.  Those angles would be enough for me to pull the trigger on the Warhawks, but there are two other reason I love the home underdog on Saturday.  One is that Louisiana Monroe last played two weeks ago, so it will be very well-rested for this rivalry game.  And rested teams off a loss have covered 79% since 1980 as underdogs (or PK) vs. foes off an upset win that are playing their final game of the season.  And the other reason I love Monroe is that the underdog in this rivalry has covered 15 of 18, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when getting 7+ points, and a perfect 8-0 ATS off a loss by more than two touchdowns.  Take Louisiana Monroe + the points.  Rivalry Underdog of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Oklahoma State.  This game will decide the Big 12 Championship, as both teams come into the game with 9-2 records, overall, and 8-0 (Oklahoma) and 7-1 (Oklahoma St.) conference records.  We'll lay the points with the Sooners, as they fall into 'momentum' systems of mine, with records of 294-201, 168-104 and 145-75 ATS, following their 56-28 win at West Virginia in their last game. and their 45-24 win over Baylor two games back.  Those three angles all play on certain teams off big, back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  Oklahoma State is a dreadful 16-36 ATS since 1999 when priced from +6 to +19 points, including 3-8 ATS vs. the Sooners, while the Sooners are an awesome 28-11-1 ATS as a home favorite, in the same price range (-6 to -19), in the same period.  Take the Sooners.  Big 12 Conference Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Navy Midshipmen minus the points over Temple, as it's backed by 157-87, 135-54 and 37-9 ATS systems of mine.  The Midshipmen have won 4 straight games, including two blowouts on the road in their last two (75-31 over SMU; 66-31 over ECU).  I won't step in front of this freight train at home, as single-digit home favorites have covered 62% over the past 37 years after scoring 60+ points in their previous game (including 3-1 ATS this season).  And, yes, it's true that Temple has won its last six games, and covered its last 11, on the heels of a defense which has given up just 23 points over its last four games (and 17.8 ppg on the season).  But teams with a better defense (more than 12 ppg better than their foe) have actually been big-time money-burners in conference title games, as they're 0-7 ATS.  Take Navy.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats + the points over Western Michigan.  The Broncos have yet to lose straight-up on the field this season, as they're a perfect 12-0.  They're also 9-3 ATS.  Meanwhile, Ohio is 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS.  But we'll take the double-digits with Ohio, as Western Michigan falls into negative 8-37 and 69-122 ATS systems of mine that fade certain unbeaten teams late in the season.  Even worse for Western Michigan:  Mid-American Conference teams with a win percentage greater than .800 have been awful in the Title game vs. foes that don't have a win percentage greater than .800, as they've covered just 1 of 10 games since 1998, including two outright upset losses as 15-point (Ball St, 2008) and 20-point (N. Illinois, 2010) favorites.  Yikes!  Take Ohio + the points.  MAC Conference Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Wyoming.  Last week, we cashed our Mountain West Game of the Year on Wyoming, which won outright as a double-digit underdog vs. San Diego St.  But I look for a letdown tonight, on the road, vs. the Lobos, as Wyoming falls into a negative 54-105 ATS system of mine (same angle which I used yesterday on Memphis over Houston following Houston's upset win over Louisville).   Even worse:  the Cowboys have covered a paltry 33% on the road in conference games off an upset win since 1980, and are also 2-7 ATS their last 9 vs. New Mexico.  Like Wyoming, the Lobos are also playing very good football, with five wins in their last six games (4-2 ATS).  And New Mexico's an awesome 17-6 ATS vs. foes off an upset win since 1980, including a perfect 6-0 ATS since October 31, 2009.  Take the points with the home dog Lobos.  NCAA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Utah Utes + the points over Colorado, as Utah falls into 59-7 and 143-63 ATS systems of mine following its upset loss as a double-digit home favorite, at the hands of Oregon.  But Utah had covered its previous three games before that surprising defeat, and I expect it to rebound on Saturday vs. Colorado.  Indeed, the Utes are a money-making 23-7-1 ATS as road underdogs off a loss since 1987, including 10-1 ATS if they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in their previous game.  And Utah's 16-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs off a pointspread loss the previous week.  Take the points with the Utes.  NCAA Underdog of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Temple.  These two teams come into this game with opposite records.  ECU is 3-8, while Temple is 8-3.  And in Vegas, ECU is 2-8 ATS, while Temple is 9-1 ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the 'hot' Owls and against the 'cold' Pirates.  But I wouldn't do that if I were you.  Indeed, teams (like Temple) off 5 or more ATS wins in a row have covered just 28 of 84 games vs. foes off 3+ ATS losses in a row.  Take East Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the UTEP Miners + the points over North Texas.  The Miners are 3-8 on the season, so they won't be going to a Bowl game.  Thus, this game, in front of their home fans, will be their final one of the season.  And I fully expect a big effort this afternoon.  They'll face a North Texas squad which upset Southern Miss, 29-23, as a 6-point underdog last week.  Unfortunately, for the Mean Green, they're 0-13 SU and 1-11-1 ATS in conference games, off an upset win, since 2005 (including 0-8 ATS on the road).  Yikes! And North Texas also falls into negative 54-104 ATS 'letdown' system of mine, based on its upset win last week.  Take Texas El Paso + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Michigan State.  We've had good success in the Nittany Lions' games this season, as we went against them at Michigan, and got the $$$ when the Wolverines blew them out, 49-10.  Then, later in the season, we played on the Nitts against Iowa in PSU's 27-point win.  Here, we'll lay the points with the red-hot Lions, as they've won 7 in a row, and covered their last six.  In stark contrast, the Spartans have lost eight of their last nine, with their only victory against league doormat, Rutgers (does that win even count?).  It's true that MSU played its heart out last week in a narrow, 1-point loss, at home to Ohio State.  But things will be MUCH different on the road, in Happy Valley.  MSU is a poor 19-32 ATS on the road off a home loss.  Lay the points with the Nittany Lions.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals minus the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars defeated Presbyterian last week, 31-7, at home, while the Vandals had last week off to rest and prepare for this contest.  And that extra week of rest has triggered a super 99-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested, revenge-minded teams vs. conference opponents.  And Idaho does have revenge from a 52-45 loss to the Jaguars last season -- a game the Vandals actually led by 24-0 in the 2nd quarter.  The Jaguars are an awful 0-6 ATS on the road off a home win the past 3 seasons, and are 3-8 ATS their last 11 games away from home, overall.  Meanwhile, Idaho has cashed 7 of its last 8 games when playing with revenge, and is a strong 75% ATS since 1999 off a win, if it was playing with revenge.  Take the Vandals minus the points.  Below the Radar Blowout.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Ohio State.  It's true that the Wolverines have lost the last 4 meetings to their rival, Ohio State.  But none of those teams were as good as this club.  And it's not often that one finds the best defensive team in the country installed as an underdog.  But that's the case on Saturday, as Jim Harbaugh's crew will be getting points from the Buckeyes in Columbus.  And the Wolverines are the only team in the country giving up less than 11 points per game.  We'll grab the points with the Maize and Blue, as revenge-minded .666 (or better) underdogs of +6.5 or more points have covered 100% percent of the time (13-0 ATS) since 1981 off a win, if their defense doesn't give up more than 13.2 ppg (at Game 10 forward).  Take Michigan + the points.  Big 10 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Kentucky.  Last week, we played against Louisville, and had our biggest play of that week on Houston, which was a 17-point underdog at home vs. Louisville.  The Cougars won outright, 36-10, so the result didn't really shock us.  But I love the Cardinals to bounce back off that defeat, as College Football teams favored by more than 18 points, off an upset loss on the road where they were favored by 8+ points, have covered a whopping 63% of the time over the past 37 years.  Even better:  Kentucky is a poor 18-26 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss, while Louisville is a super 19-8 ATS its last 27 off an upset defeat, including a perfect 7-0 when priced from -11 to -31.  Take the Cardinals.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats over Arizona State.  The Sun Devils are giving up an atrocious 38.4 points per game, yet find themselves installed as a small road favorite at rival Arizona.  We'll take the homestanding Wildcats, and go against ASU, as road favorites of 13 points or less (or PK) that give up 36.9+ ppg (at Game 5 forward) have covered just 55 of 143 games since 1980, including 1-6 ATS this season.  The underdog is also 23-12 in this series.  Take Arizona. NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Friday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Houston.  Last week, we had our #1 play of the entire week on the Houston Cougars over Louisville.  Houston went off as a 17-point underdog vs. the then-No. 3 ranked Cardinals, but won outright by a 36-10 score!  However, off that most impressive victory, we'll switch gears and actually go against the Cougars this week as a road favorite, as I look for a massive letdown by Tom Herman's men.  Certainly, the rumors surrounding the departure of the popular Houston coach won't help.  The latest has him headed to LSU as a replacement for Les Miles, who was fired earlier this season.  So, in his possible "swan song" at Houston, the game could actually take a bit of a back seat to the coaching carousel.  But regardless of all of that "noise," the fact remains that this is a major let-down situation for the Cougars, as they fall into negative 20-49, 54-104 and 14-52 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset home wins over top-level teams.  There's also a bit of uncertainty on the Memphis side with respect to who will be starting under center.  First-team QB Riley Ferguson is a game time decision, though I actually believe he will play, as he has been taking snaps in practice this week.  But he's recovering from a concussion, so there's always the chance he won't be deemed to be fully recovered on game day, and backup Jason Stewart will get the call.  Regardless, we'll grab the points with the home dog in this early game on Friday.  NCAA High Noon Hanging.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Akron Zips + the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats are 7-4, after losing, 27-20, at Central Michigan last week, while Akron is 5-6, on the heels of a 3-game losing streak.  The Zips, therefore, need to win to gain eligibility for a bowl game.  And teams with a 5-6 record, looking to become bowl-eligible, have covered 63% of the time in their final regular season game vs. foes with a win percentage of .600 (or better).  And though it's true that the Zips are unsettled at the quarterback position, the pointspread, by my estimation, has been over-inflated relative to the issue at hand.  Take Akron + the points.  MAC Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Stanford.  This will be the 119th meeting in this rivalry known as "The Big Game."  And I love getting points with teams in rivalry games, provided they can move the football.  And California can certainly do that, as Davis Webb leads the 3rd most prolific passing offense this year in College Football.  It's true that California has lost its last three games, while Stanford is on a 3-game win streak.  But like with many heated rivalries, the records generally go out the window.  Besides, home teams have covered 61.3% the past 8 seasons off 3+ losses, if their win pct was .400 or better, including 75% when getting more than 6 points.  Take Cal.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over San Diego State.  The Aztecs come into this game with a 9-1 record, and are ranked #24 in the country.  They also snuck into the rankings earlier this season (their first time since 1995), but then promptly played their worst game of the season when they lost at South Alabama, 42-24, as 19.5-point favorites.  But they're on a six-game win streak, and have covered four straight games.  But this will be a very difficult game for San Diego State to win.  Wyoming is 7-3, with wins (and covers) in five of its last six games.  And Wyoming also falls into 137-63 and 72-26 ATS systems of mine that play against certain winning teams off big ATS wins.  This will be Wyoming's final home game of the season, and San Diego State is a poor 7-14 ATS vs. foes playing their final home game.  The Cowboys are 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS at home since last Thanksgiving, and need to win to keep pace with Boise State and New Mexico at the top of the conference's Mountain Division (all three teams are tied at 5-1).  Take the points with Wyoming.  Mountain West Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Michigan.  Last week, Jim Harbaugh's men suffered their first loss of the season, as they fell at the gun by a single point, 14-13, to the Iowa Hawkeyes.  Even worse for the Maize and Blue:  they may have also lost their starting QB, Wilton Speight, who broke his collarbone.  Regardless of who starts at QB for U-M, we're going to fade it on this Saturday.  And that's because teams off a loss as an 18-point (or bigger) favorite the previous week are an awful 29.7% ATS since 1980, including 2-14 ATS when priced from -17 to -24 points.  Take Indiana.  Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Buffalo.  The 14th-ranked Broncos are a spotless 10-0 this season, and are one of two remaining unbeaten teams (along with Alabama).   And their schedule conferred an advantage on them this week, as they haven't played for 11 days, while Buffalo will have had just seven days between its games.  And undefeated teams, with a record of 8-0 or better) have covered 75% at home in the regular season since 1988 when playing with extra rest.  With Western Michigan covering 13 of 15 against foes not off a SU/ATS win, we'll lay the points with the Broncos.  NCAA Roadkill.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Duke.  We played on the Panthers last week as our "Underdog Shocker," and were rewarded not just with a cover, but an outright win as a 21.5-point underdog vs. #2 ranked Clemson.  A lot of folks might look for a letdown on Saturday, but not me.  First, the Panthers will be at home, and when teams suffer letdowns, they tend to happen on the road.  And, second, Duke comes into this game off, arguably, a bigger win, as it defeated its absolute biggest rival -- 13th ranked North Carolina -- as a 10.5-point home underdog.  Like Pitt, Duke won that game by a single point (28-27), and road underdogs are an awful 38.5% since 1980 off wins as a double-digit dog, if they're matched up against a foe also off a win.  Take Pitt.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Oklahoma State.  This is a critical game for both of these teams.  The 13th ranked Cowboys are 6-1 in Conference play, and are trying to stay in position to win the Big 12 Championship, while TCU still needs to win at least one more game to become eligible for a bowl game.  The big factor for me is that TCU had last week off to rest and prepare, while Okie State was involved in a tough, 45-44 win vs. Texas Tech.  The Horned Frogs fall into several of my best systems that involve playing on rested teams against unrested foes (with records of 43-11, 73-21, 185-119 and 111-54 ATS).  Also, the Horned Frogs are a super 19-5 ATS when playing with rest in the regular season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS at home since 2007.  Take TCU. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Iowa.  The Hawkeyes pulled a big upset last week, when they stunned #3 ranked Michigan at the gun with a game-winning field goal.  Of course, we weren't stunned, as we had a huge Elite Info play on the Hawkeyes.  But we'll switch gears and take Illinois in a home underdog role on Saturday.  Indeed, home dogs are a strong 62.2% ATS over the past 37 years vs. foes off upsets as dogs of +15 or more points (and 75% when getting more than 8 points).  Take Illinois.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over UNLV.  We played on the Broncos last week vs. Hawaii, and easily got the $$$ when they blew out the Rainbow Warriors, 52-16, as 23-point favorites.  They've favored again by a large margin tonight, and we will once again lay it.  Boise State is 62-39 ATS off a double-digit conference win, and it's also playing its final home game of the season.  That bodes well for the Broncos, as they fall into 53-17, 90-59 and 49-13 ATS "last home game" systems of mine.  Meanwhile, UNLV checks in off a 69-66 upset win over Wyoming, which has triggered two negative systems of mine, with records of 45-102 and 56-100 ATS.  Even worse: the Rebels are a horrid 1-15 straight-up and 2-14 ATS since 2004 when playing against an opponent in its final home game of the season, including 0-8 ATS if the Rebels are playing with revenge from a loss the previous season!  Last year, Boise blew out UNLV by 28 points, as a 21-point favorite.  They'll get the win and cover again on Friday.  Take Boise State.  Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Louisville, as Houston falls into 28-0, 41-4 and 56-20 ATS systems of mine.  This will be a very tough test for the Cardinals, who are stepping up greatly in class (from what they've experienced much of the season).  The Cardinals were favored by 35, 19, 32, 25 and 34 points in their five most recent games.  And none of those five foes currently have a winning record in ACC Conference play (they're a combined 8-23).  Now, they're going to be playing an out-of-conference foe in Houston, which is 8-2 on the season.  And one of the things I like to do is go against certain teams after playing three straight games where they were favored by 20+ points, if they're now stepping up in class against a much more competitive opponent.  Indeed, I have a 53-21 ATS system on Houston as a big underdog vs. Louisville tonight which encapsulates that theory.  Finally, the Cougars are 11-0-1 ATS as underdogs of +2 or more points since November 17, 2012.  Take the points with Houston.  NCAA Football Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas over Ohio.  The Bobcats have won and covered their last 3 games, while Central Michigan comes into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses.  But Central Michigan will be playing its final home game of the season tonight.  And I love betting on teams off a loss, if they're playing their final home game of the season, and they're off 3 ATS losses, overall, while their opponent is off 3 ATS wins.  Those home teams have covered 76.1% since 1980 when not laying more than 3 points.  The Chippewas also fall into 121-76, 66-41 and 55-15 ATS systems of mine.  Take Central Michigan.  Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons snapped a 7-game losing streak with a road win at Akron last Wednesday.  But that upset win has triggered several negative systems of mine, with records of 147-62, 159-69 and 162-75 ATS since 1980.  The key last week was that Akron coughed up the football six times.  But I wouldn't expect such good fortune to occur two weeks in a row.  And especially since Bowling Green has only won the turnover battle twice in its 10 games this season, while Kent State has only lost the turnover battle three times in its 10 games.  The Falcons are also a dismal 2-11 ATS following a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers.  Take Kent State. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over California.  Mike Leach's Cougars have been dominant since stumbling out of the gate with an 0-2 record.  Since the, Wazzu has ripped off seven straight wins.  They've also covered five of their last eight games.  Their very best win was last week when they destroyed Arizona 69-7, as a 14-point favorite.  They'll now take on the defensively-challenged Bears, who gave up 66 points to Washington last week (and who have given up 47, 49, 45 and 66 points in their last four games).  I look for Washington State to blow the doors off of Cal, as Wazzu falls into 179-79, 116-40 and 15-1 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine.  And California is a dreadful 9-18 ATS when the O/U line is greater than 65 points.  Take Washington State.  Pac-12 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan, as the Hawkeyes fall into 86-47, 130-69 and 135-63 ATS systems.  At the start of the season, I predicted that the University of Michigan would win the National Championship (at 12-1 odds).  Certainly, it is in great shape after starting the season 9-0.  But this will be its toughest road game of the season-to-date.  And Iowa comes into this game at Kinnick Stadium off back to back losses.  The Hawkeyes are a solid 11-2 ATS as home dogs of +3.5 or more points off back to back losses, and 30-17-1 ATS since 1980 off back to back ATS losses when not laying 5+ points.  Even better:  they're 32-10 ATS in Conference games off a road loss by more than 8 points (including 13-1 ATS since 2001).  Meanwhile, Michigan is a poor 10-25-1 ATS on the road off a Big 10 Conference win.  Take Iowa.  Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Arkansas.  Last week, Arkansas blew out Florida, 31-10, while the Tigers lost a very hard-fought game to Alabama.  The score in the LSU/Alabama game was 0-0 through three quarters, but Alabama scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to win 10-0.  I look for Louisiana State to bounce back off that shutout defeat, as road favorites of -3 or more points have covered 68% off a shutout loss over the past 37 years.  And, even though there’s nothing wrong with 68%, we can improve our stat to a perfect 100%, 11-0 ATS if our opponent won its last game by 4 or more points, which Arkansas did.  Take LSU minus the points.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors were shut out last year by Boise, 55-0.  And they also lost last week, 55-0, to San Diego State!  Hawaii has not been bouncing back off losses, lately, as it's 3-11 ATS its last 14 off a defeat.  Meanwhile, Boise's 71-44 ATS off a conference win, and it falls into a system of mine which is 14-0 ATS its last 14.  That angle plays on certain .801 (or better) teams off an ATS loss.  Lay the points with Boise.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over South Florida, as Memphis falls into 99-55 and 102-44 ATS systems of mine.  The Tigers got off the schneid last week when they smashed SMU 51-7, as a 3-point favorite, to move to 6-3 on the season.  And that big, 44-point blowout win is a 'buy signal' for me.  Especially when one looks at the South Florida defense, which has given up 46 and 45 points in its last two games, and over 30 ppg for the season.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, road favorites have only covered 34 of 100 games if their defense gives up 28+ points per game, and their opponent has a win percentage greater than .560.  Take Memphis.  Below the Radar Blowout.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs minus the points over Texas San Antonio.  The Bulldogs have won six in a row, and covered their last five.  And I certainly won't step in front of this freight train, here, at home.  In its last five games, the Bulldogs have scored 55, 56, 44, 61 and 45 points!  That bodes well for La Tech today, as home teams have covered 61% of regular season conference games over the past 37 years if they're off 3 SU/ATS Wins, and scored 150+ points in those 3 victories.  Additionally, the Bulldogs are 25-12 ATS as a home favorite of -6+ points.  Take La Tech.  Conference USA Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Vanderbilt.  The Tigers have lost their last 5 games (both SU and ATS), yet find themselves installed as a favorite vs. Vandy, which covered last week at Auburn (losing 23-16, as a 25-point dog).  It may look tough to take the Tigers, given how they've burned money in Vegas, but home favorites off ATS losses in each of their previous five games have covered a sensational 61% over the past 37 years vs. foes off an ATS win.  And Missouri's an awesome 25-8 ATS when favored at home off a loss.  Take the Tigers.  NCAA Football Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Clemson, as the Tigers fall into a negative 69-130 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain .900 (or better) teams off big wins.  Last week, the Tigers shut out Syracuse 54-0, but undefeated favorites of more than 18 points, off shutout wins, have only covered 36 of 100 at home since 1980.  And while Pittsburgh was blown out last week, 51-28, by Miami, I look for it to bounce back, as winning teams are 51-24 ATS double-digit road dogs vs. conference foes if they're off a conference road loss by more than 20 points.  Take Pittsburgh + the points.  Underdog Shocker. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte 49ers minus the points over Rice.  The 49ers are on a roll, as they've covered their last four games, including a stunning 38-27 win at Southern Miss last week, as a 17-point underdog.  Some might look for a letdown, but not me.  Since 1980, double-digit favorites are a super 60-37 ATS at home in Conference games following an upset win on the road as a dog of more than 6 points, if they're playing an opponent off a loss.  Rice comes into this game off back to back losses, and 3 straight ATS losses.  Lay the points with Charlotte.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over South Carolina.  It's true that the Gators are banged-up, including at the quarterback position, where Austin Appleby will get the start for an injured Luke Del Rio.  Regardless, we'll lay the points with Florida, as it falls into an 85-43 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams to bounce back off a pointspread loss when matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Additionally, the Gators' defense has been sensational at home this season.  In its 4 home games, it's allowed 7, 7, 0 and 14 points (7 ppg) compared to 25 ppg in its 3 games on its opponent's home field.  Meanwhile, in South Carolina's three road games, it has scored 13, 14 and 10 points (compared to 22.67 ppg in its home games).  Take Florida.  HIGH NOON HANGING!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns + the points over Georgia Southern.  Last week, the Cajuns were upset at home by Idaho, 23-13, as a 4-point favorite.  Elijah McGuire (727 yards, 5 TDs) was a bit banged-up in that game, and mustered only 55 yards rushing.  But he's been upgraded to 'probable' for tonight's game, and that bodes well for the Cajuns, as he's the school's 2nd leading rusher in its history.  Additionally, the Cajuns fall into a 97-31 ATS system of mine which plays on certain road underdogs to bounce back off upset home losses.  Take the points with La-Lafayette.  NCAA ELITE INFO.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Akron minus the points over Bowling Green.  Bowling Green has won just one game this season -- and by a single point, 27-26.  That game was against Division II foe, North Dakota.  So, the Falcons are 0-8 this year against Division 1 foes.  They're also an awful 2-7 ATS.  This will be Akron's final home game of the season.  And it's won (and covered) its Final Home Game the past 3 seasons.  The Zips are 5-5 on the season, and need at least one more win to become bowl eligible.  Akron falls into a 38-15 ATS 'revenge' system of mine.  Take the Zips minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over the Northern Illinois Huskies.  Toledo hasn't beaten the Huskies since 2009, but they fall into a 67-38 ATS Revenge system of mine.  The Rockets are 7-2 on the season, and come into this game off a 48-17 win last Wednesday.  Meanwhile, the Huskies are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS.  Toledo's a super 46-19 ATS when priced from -3 to -30.5 points against foes that didn't own a winning SU or ATS record, including 6-0-1 ATS over the past 2 years.  Take Toledo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Alabama.  The Crimson Tide have done little wrong this season, and are clearly the nation's best team.  They're not only 8-0 SU, but they're 6-2 ATS, and have covered the spread by an average of 7 ppg.  But don't be surprised if they lose outright on Saturday night to the 5-2 Tigers.  There are many reasons to think Ed Orgeron's squad will be able to get the win in Baton Rouge.  First, they had last week off, and fall into several of my best systems that play on certain rested home teams.  Second, even though they've lost twice, both were by less than a touchdown, away from home, against teams currently ranked among the Top 10 (Wisconsin, Auburn).  But LSU currently rides a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, including a 38-21 blowout of Ole Miss, as a 9-point favorite, in their last game.  And, LSU also falls into a jaw-dropping 28-0 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back wins against opponent that have covered the spread, on average, by more than 3 ppg.  Finally, the Tigers are 8-0 ATS in Baton Rouge after scoring more than 34 points in their previous game.  Take LSU.  SEC Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over East Carolina.  The Golden Hurricane are on a roll, with wins in five of their last six games (and ATS wins in their last three).  Last week, Tulsa went into Memphis, and smoked the Tigers, 59-30, as a 6-point road dog.  And that followed a 50-27 blowout of Tulane two weeks ago, as a 10.5-point favorite.  This week, Tulsa will look to get a big monkey off its back, as it's lost the previous six meetings to the Pirates.  But Tulsa falls into 51-20 and 66-38 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Even better:  since 1980, home teams have cashed 70.9 percent of the time off back to back double-digit wins and covers, if they scored more than 100 points over those two victories, and the line in the current game was less than 18 points.  Finally, the Pirates are a wallet-busting 0-10 ATS since Nov. 29, 2013 in conference games when not favored by 6+ points.  Take Tulsa.  AAC Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Iowa.  Penn State's played just one game the entire season.  And that was at Michigan (a game I attended in person), when it lost 49-10, as a 16-point underdog.  We actually had a big play on the Wolverines that day, so PSU's poor performance didn't surprise me.  But look at the Nitts' other seven games.  They won by 20 over Kent St. in their opener (as a 24-point fave), and then pushed the 3-point spread at Pitt in their next game.  Then, in their two games sandwiched around the Michigan loss, they won 34-27, as an 8.5 point favorite vs. Temple, and 29-26, as a 3.5-point favorite vs. Minnesota.  So, yes, they were 0-4-1 ATS to start the season -- but three of their four ATS losses were by a combined 6 points.  Since then, they've rolled.  They blew out Maryland, 38-14, as a 2-point underdog, before upsetting Ohio State, 24-21, as a 17.5-point dog.  Many thought they would suffer a letdown last week.  But they had their best game of the season when they went into West Lafayette, and walloped Purdue, 62-24, as a 14.5-point favorite.  That was PSU's 3rd straight cover (by an average of 23.33 ppg), and I won't step in front of this freight train, and especially not at home when laying a reasonable number.  Indeed, single-digit home favorites are a reliable 73% ATS over the past 37 years following a SU/ATS win the previous week, in which they scored 60+ points.  Take Penn State.  Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Florida State, as it falls into a 50-14 ATS system of mine.  The Seminoles lost a huge emotional game vs. the #2-ranked Clemson Tigers last week.  Florida State had an 8-point lead in the 4th quarter, but collapsed, and lost 37-34.  I think it will be extremely difficult for the Seminoles to pick themselves off the mat for this road game, as that loss all but eliminated them from the Atlantic Division title race.  Indeed, the Seminoles fall into a negative 1-15 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off close losses to undefeated teams.  Even worse:  NC State has lost three straight in this series, but falls into a 70-31 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain .428 (or better) revenge-minded home teams off a loss.  Finally, the Wolfpack are a solid 25-12 ATS when playing with revenge from a conference loss, while Florida State is 1-10 ATS as a favorite off an ATS win.  Take NC State + the points.  NCAA Roadkill play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Oregon.  Oregon brought in ex-Michigan head man Brady Hoke to coordinate its defense.  And the results have not been good.  Oregon is allowing an eye-opening 46 ppg, which is the primary reason it has only covered the spread in one of its eight games this season.  We've gone against the Ducks a few times this season (because of its swiss cheese defense), and will do so once again tonight.  Southern Cal, no doubt, will be seeking a measure of revenge after being blown out by Oregon the past 2 meetings.  Last year, the Ducks won 48-28, in Eugene.  And they also won here in Los Angeles, 62-51, in the meeting before that.  But Oregon was the better team those seasons, and were favored in each game.  Indeed, USC hasn't been favored to win vs. Oregon since 2009.  And the last 3 games the Trojans were favored by double-digits vs. Oregon, they won by 34, 25 and 32 points, easily covering all 3 by an average of 15.17 ppg.  Oregon falls into negative 44-101 and 55-98 ATS systems of mine that play against certain teams with bad defenses playing away from home.  The Trojans have cashed 71% at home over the past 23 seasons off back to back ATS wins.  Lay the points with USC.  Payback Payday!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.