Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are undefeated, with an 8-0 record, while Northwestern is just 5-3.  But both teams are equal in Las Vegas, as each has a 4-4 ATS record.  We'll go against Notre Dame, as undefeated teams, with a record of 8-0 (or better), have cashed just 50 of 131 on the road vs. opponents that owned a .500 (or better) ATS win percentage.  Also, Northwestern's a solid 21-8 ATS as a home underdog priced from +7 to +13.5 points.  Take the Wildcats.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes + the points over Arizona.  The Buffaloes were inexplicably upset by Oregon State last Saturday, 41-34, in overtime, after leading the game by a score of 31-3!  And that was Colorado's 3rd straight loss, overall.  Certainly, last week's defeat was a gut-wrenching game, as it matched the largest blown lead in school history.  But I fully expect Mike MacIntyre's men to rebound on Friday.  For technical support, consider that road underdogs of +6 points or less have cashed 64% over the last 38 years off 3+ losses, if they were upset in their previous game.  Additionally, Arizona's a horrid 0-10 ATS since 1991 as a favorite of more than 2 points off an upset win.  Take the Buffaloes.  Perfect 10 Club play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Panthers upset the Duke Blue Devils, 54-45, last week, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  And they'll now try to make it two upsets in a row when they take on the 23rd-ranked Cavaliers, who are on a 3-game win streak.  Unfortunately for the Panthers, road teams off an upset win as a home dog have cashed just 34% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road team wasn't getting more than 10 points.  Take Virginia to blow out Pitt.  NCAA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo.  Ball State was blown out by 38 points (as a 10-point underdog) in its last game.  And it lost by 22 points (as a 2.5-point dog) in its game two weeks ago.  Thus, over its two previous games, it failed to cover the spread by a combined 47.5 points.  But the Cardinals fall into a 64-32 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses by 19+ points.  And Ball State is also 55-26 ATS on the road since Oct. 29, 2005, including 8-0 ATS when priced from +16 to +19.5 points.  Take Ball State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Florida International.  Last week, the Hilltoppers suffered, perhaps, the most excruciating loss of the season (a game which really needed to be SEEN to be believed).  Indeed, the Hilltoppers actually led 34-27 with 1:37 left in regulation.  But Old Dominion scored a tying TD with nine seconds left, and then a WINNING Field Goal with no time (literally) on the clock, as they game had seemingly ended three plays before.  But because of rules violations on three successive plays (including a game-winning FG attempt by Western Kentucky), there were three untimed downs after the clock had expired.  And on the 3rd untimed down, it was Florida International which kicked the game-winner.  That was the Hilltoppers' 3rd straight loss and, for some, it might be a crushing loss.  But this is actually a perfect spot for Mike Sanford's team to bounce back, as it's homecoming night for Western Kentucky, so the campus will be excited, and the team will be motivated.   Indeed, coach Sanford was asked if he felt his team was snake-bit after last week's loss, and he said, 'no,' that he 'doesn't believe in karma' but rather 'hard work' which his players continue to exude.  Now, it's true that the Panthers are 3-0 in Conference USA, while the Hilltoppers are 0-3 within the Conference.  But, as discussed above, the Hilltoppers were less than two minutes away from a victory (and point spread cover) last week.  And, for the season, the Hilltoppers are 4-3 ATS, with several close losses (four of their six losses were by a mere three points, so they certainly have not played badly).  One of the things I love to do, at Conference Game 4 forward, is play on home teams winless in Conference play, if they were matched up against an opponent which was unbeaten in conference play, and the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 10 points or less.  Over the last 38 seasons, our home teams have covered 80% of the time.  Moreover, Western Kentucky is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a home underdog of +6 or less points since November 2009.  Take the Hilltoppers.  CUSA Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack minus the points over Syracuse.  The Wolfpack were blown out by Clemson, 41-7, last week, which was their first loss of the season.  However, I look for them to bounce back and get a road victory this evening.  Not only have coach Dave Doreen's Wolfpack won each of the last four meetings vs. Syracuse, but they're also 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 as a road favorite.  And, going back to Doreen's stint as head coach of Northern Illinois, his teams have gone 12-2-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 3-0-1 ATS off a loss.  Finally, winning road favorites have gone 152-112 ATS since 1993 off a conference loss by 10+ points, if they also failed to cover the spread by 12+ points in that loss.  Take NC State.  NCAA Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Clemson.  The Tigers enter this contest on a 7-game win streak, including 63-3 and 41-7 blowout wins over their last two foes (Wake Forest, NC State).  Unfortunately, NCAA favorites (or PK) off back to back stellar defensive performances, where they held their two opponents to less than 10 points, are a poor 29-62-1 ATS away from home since 1982 vs. winning teams off a SU/ATS win.  That's one reason I love the Seminoles.  Another is that Willie Taggart's teams (Western Kentucky, South Florida, Oregon, Florida State) have excelled as underdogs (or as a small favorite of -3 or less points) with him as the head coach, including 31-14-1 ATS their last 46 vs. conference foes.  Take Florida State.  NCAA High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Owls were upset, 31-7, last Saturday on the road by the Marshall Thundering Herd.  They've now been installed as a home favorite vs. LA Tech.  Unfortunately, home favorites of 7 or less points are an awful 108-179 ATS off an upset road loss.  Even worse:  Florida Atlantic is a poor 27-44 ATS at home, including 1-8 ATS when priced from -3.5 to -7 points.  Take Louisiana Tech.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles + the points over Appalachian St.  The Mountaineers are 5-1, and have not lost since their opening day, overtime loss, at Penn State.  Today, they'll take on the 6-1 Eagles, who routed New Mexico St. last weekend, 48-31.  For the season, the Eagles are outscoring their foes, on average, by a score of 31.0 to 19.3.  But at home, those numbers improve to 36.7 ppg, on offense, and just 13.2 ppg, on defense.  Additionally, Georgia Southern falls into a very good 88-28 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams, at home, off a win.  And, finally, since 1980, NCAA underdogs of more than 2 points are 239-167 ATS off back to back wins, if they average more than 29.5 points per game on offense.  Take Georgia Southern.  NCAA Roadkill play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over West Virginia.  The Mountaineers come into tonight's game off a 30-14 loss to Iowa State, which was WVU's first defeat of the season (after starting with 5 straight wins).  One of the things I love to do when betting College Football games is to go against certain teams off their initial loss of the season, if they had a 5-0 (or better) record prior to the defeat.  These teams, more often than not, fail to bounce back from their first loss of the season.  And Baylor is a play out of a super 97-47 ATS system of mine which goes against such teams (like WVU) off their first loss.  Even worse for the Mountaineers:  they have a history of not rebounding off upset losses, as they're 1-9 ATS off an upset loss, generally, and also 2-15 ATS their last 17 off an upset loss by 10+ points.  Take Baylor. Thursday Night Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars come into tonight's game off a blowout win, at home, vs. Alabama State.  Unfortunately, the Jaguars are an awful 1-9 ATS off a point spread win.  And they're just 17-32 ATS in Conference games.  Meanwhile, Troy State is a solid 15-6 ATS its last 21 road games.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over Ohio State.  The Ohio State Buckeyes are ranked 2nd in the country with a 7-0 record.  But they've been ice-cold in Las Vegas, as they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last three games.  In contrast, Purdue has been paying off its bettors, as the Boilermakers have covered each of their last four games, and have won their last three straight-up.  Even more impressive is the fact that the Boilermakers have covered the spread by double-digits in each of their last three games.  And home teams have gone 147-90 ATS in conference games, if they weren't favored by 6 or more points, and they're off back to back wins, in which they covered the spread by double-digits.  Take Purdue + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Oregon.  We played on Oregon as a home underdog vs. Washington, and got the $$$$ when Oregon won outright, 30-27, in overtime.  But off that upset win, we will fade Oregon against the once-beaten (5-1) Cougars.  A key factor for me in this game is that Washington State had last week off, so it will be well-rested.  And it's awfully difficult to win back to back games vs. excellent teams (and especially if one's opponent is well rested).  Indeed, since 1980, rested .750 (or better) NCAA Teams have cashed 67.7% since 1980 against foes off an upset win as a home underdog vs. another .750 (or better) foe.  Take Washington State minus the points.  Pac-12 Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles minus the points over Texas San Antonio.  The Golden Eagles laid an egg at North Texas last week, as they scored just seven points in a 30-7 defeat.  And that was Southern Miss's second straight loss (it also lost to SEC power Auburn, 24-13, two weeks ago).  But after being installed as an underdog each of the past two weeks, Southern Miss will no doubt be thrilled to play the Roadrunners, here, in Hattiesburg on Saturday evening.  After all, Southern Miss is a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS as double-digit favorites this season.  Even better:  over the last 39 seasons, in conference games, NCAA home favorites of 16+ points have covered 68% off conference defeats by 16+ points, if they also lost two games back.  The Golden Eagles are also 60% ATS as double-digit favorites off a loss over the past 39 seasons.  Take Southern Miss.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Florida St.  Both of these two ACC Conference rivals are 3-3 this season.  And each comes into this afternoon's game off straight-up losses.  But the nature of those defeats could not be more different.  Florida State fell by a mere point, 28-27, to Miami-Fla, while Wake Forest was walloped, 63-3, by Clemson.  I look for Wake Forest to bounce back off that 60-point loss, as road underdogs have cashed 63.8% over the last 39 seasons if they lost by more than 40 points in their previous game, and were playing an opponent also off a loss.  This system is already 3-0 this season, including a 45-20 win last week by Louisiana Monroe +6.5 over Coastal Carolina following Monroe's 70-21 blowout loss at the hands of Ole Miss.  The Demon Deacons will bounce back in a similar fashion.  Take Wake Forest.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Western Michigan.  The Chippewas are off 3 straight losses, and are winless in Mid-American Conference play.  Moreover, they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last two games.  Meanwhile, the Broncos come into this afternoon's game with an undefeated Mid-American Conference record, and have won five straight, overall.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Broncos against the ice-cold Chippewas.  But consider that single-digit Mid-American Conference home underdogs, off back-to-back ATS losses, have covered 72.9% since November 1999, if they were off a straight-up loss, and their opponent was off a straight-up win.  Grab the points with Central Michigan.  MAC Game of the Year. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Utah State.  On the surface, these two teams are headed in opposite directions.  The Aggies are 5-1, after winning each of their last five games.  Even more impressive is the fact that the Aggies have covered the point spread in all six of their games.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 2-5, on the heels of three straight losses.  And they've failed to cover their last six games.  Of course, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on a team off 6 ATS wins vs. an opponent off 6 ATS losses.  But as Lee Corso might say, "Not so fast."  For example, consider that teams off 5+ ATS defeats have gone 60-36 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins!  And teams off 6+ ATS wins have covered just six of 20 on the road vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Wyoming.

At 12:30, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Virginia.  The Cavaliers upset Miami-Fla last week, 16-13, as a 7-point home underdog.  We had a play on Virginia, so we were not surprised by the result.  Virginia is now 4-2 on the season, and will look for a second straight upset, here, against the 6-1 Blue Devils.  But I look for a letdown on Tobacco Road by Virginia, as .666 (or better) teams have cashed just 20% on the road vs. winning conference foes, if our road team was off an upset win, as a 7-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, over another conference foe.  Take Duke.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Oklahoma.  The Horned Frogs enter this game off an upset loss to Texas Tech (as a 7.5-point favorite), while Oklahoma also enters off an upset loss to Texas.  The Horned Frogs have been installed as a sizable home underdog, notwithstanding the fact that their defense is more than 7 points better than Oklahoma's defense.  And one of the things I love to do is play on .500 (or better) underdogs of +6.5 (or more) points, off an upset loss, that own a defense which gives up at least 6.5 points less than their opponent's defense. Such teams have covered 73.1% since 1982.  Even better:  TCU plays with revenge from two losses suffered at the hands of the Sooners last season (including a loss in the Big 12 Conference Championship game).  But College teams playing at home with revenge from an NCAA post-season defeat have cashed a solid 60%.  Grab the points with TCU.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over Colorado State.  Boise comes into this game off rare (for it) back to back ATS losses.  But the Broncos are 143-105 ATS their last 248.  And they're 18-11 ATS off back to back ATS losses.  Finally, they've won seven straight meetings vs. the Rams, and have gone 5-2 ATS in those games.  Lay the points with Boise.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Miami-Fla.  Virginia had last weekend off to rest and prepare for this game following its blowout, 35-21 loss at NC State. And that was Virginia's first game this season in which it failed to cover the point spread.  I love the Cavaliers to bounce back on Saturday, as it's been installed as a home underdog.  And Virginia's performed much better over the years as a home dog (12-5 Last 17) than as a home favorite (5-16-3 ATS its last 24), so that bodes well for it in this game.  As does the fact that the underdog is 12-2 in this series' last 14 meetings.  Indeed, last year, Virginia was a 20.5-point underdog and actually led by 14 points in the 2nd half.  But Miami stormed back late to win by 16, 44-28 (though it failed to cover).  Finally, single-digit ACC home underdogs off a straight-up loss are 106-53 ATS vs. .500 (or better) conference foes.  Take Virginia.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Iowa State.  The 6th-ranked Mountaineers are 5-0 straight-up, and 4-1 ATS, and have been installed as a road favorite in this game.  I love the Mountaineers to blow out the Cyclones, as Iowa State comes into this game off an outright win as a double-digit underdog at Oklahoma State last week.  And, since 1980, teams off SU wins as a double-digit underdog the previous week have cashed just 40.9% when matched up against an opponent off a win.  This system is already a perfect 3-0 this season, and one of its wins was, coincidentally, in West Virginia's last road game, at Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders had blown out Oklahoma State, 41-17, as a 14.5-point underdog the previous week, and then came home to face WVU.  Unfortunately, they suffered a letdown, and the Mountaineers won (and covered) in a 42-34 victory.  Same result should occur here, in Ames, Iowa.  Take West Virginia.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin Cajuns minus the points over New Mexico State.  We played on the Aggies last week, and got the $$$ when they upset the Liberty Flames, 49-41, as a 4-point home underdog.  However, I often like to go against teams off upset wins, as they are susceptible to letdowns.  And that, I believe, will happen here, as New Mexico State falls into a negative 22-72 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams, on the road, off upset wins.  Meanwhile, Lafayette checks in off a 42-27 blowout of Texas State, and falls into a 136-67 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off double-digit wins.  Finally, the Aggies are an awful 7-43 straight-up and 18-32 ATS as a road underdog in non-conference games.  Lay the points with the Cajuns.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams minus the points over New Mexico. Last week, we played on the Lobos in their big upset win, as an 8-point underdog, at UNLV. The Lobos won that game, 50-14, so they covered by 44 points. Off that win, the Lobos have been installed as a PK against the Rams. But teams off upset wins, in which they covered by 39+ points, have cashed just 19.2% since 1980 away from home when PK'em or favored. And the Lobos, themselves, are 0-4 ATS as a road favorite (or PK) off an upset win. Take Colorado St. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights are currently riding an 18-game win streak, and are ranked among the Top 10 in the Country, with a 5-0 record this season.  But this is going to be a difficult game to win.  One factor going against them is the fact that they’re on the road after playing their four previous games at home.  And Central Florida covered the spread in each of their last three games vs. Florida Atlantic, Pittsburgh and SMU.  Unfortunately, road teams have covered just 38 of 107 games following three straight ATS wins at home, including 8-27 their last 35 when they owned a win percentage greater than .850.   Another factor on the side of Memphis is the fact that it will be playing with revenge from a 62-55 loss to the Knights in last season’s AAC Conference Title game.  And winning teams playing with revenge from a post-season defeat have cashed 62.8% since 1990 when installed as an underdog.  Take Memphis + the points.  AAC Conference Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Washington. The Huskies have rebounded nicely off their opening week loss to Auburn, and are now 5-1 on the season. But this is a major step-up in class from the types of opponents (e.g., Arizona St., BYU, UCLA) that Washington has seen over the last few weeks. Indeed, but for a senseless, last-minute collapse vs. Stanford, the Ducks would be 5-0, and ranked, like Washington, among the Top 10. So, this is a huge game, as it will go a long way toward determining the winner of the Pac-12 North Division. The Ducks have a big advantage in that they had last week off to rest and prepare for this game. And Oregon falls into a super 70-22, 76% ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested teams in Conference games, as well as a 101-48 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded squads (Oregon lost 38-3 last season, so is playing with revenge). Finally, in games between winning teams (that were also both winning teams last season), home teams playing with revenge from a 33-point (or worse) defeat have gone 57-29 ATS since 1998, including 10-2 ATS when playing with rest. Take the Ducks.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Georgia. We played on Florida last week in a home dog role vs. LSU, and got the $$$ when the Gators upset the previously-unbeaten Tigers, 27-19. This week, however, I look for LSU to turn the tables on the undefeated Bulldogs. Indeed, winning teams have cashed 60.0% ATS as conference home underdogs off an upset conference loss on the road the previous week since 1980. Finally, LSU is 15-4-1 as an underdog of +3 or more points off an upset loss, including 9-1 ATS their last 10. Take LSU.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Texas. The Longhorns have reeled off 5 straight wins following their upset loss at Maryland to start the 2018 season. Last week, Texas' victim was Oklahoma, which entered the game undefeated, with a 5-0 record. But Texas upset the Sooners, as a 7-point underdog. And now they'll go for their sixth straight win, at home. vs. the 4-2 Bears. Let's grab the points with the Bears as winning, double-digit underdogs have cashed 67% since 1980 vs. conference foes off an upset conference win. Big 12 Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Florida. We played on the Florida Gators last week in their upset win, at home, vs. the then-undefeated LSU Tigers. However, off that upset win, I look for a letdown this Saturday in Nashville. Indeed, one of the things I love to do is go against college football favorites away from home that upset a previously undefeated foe, if they're now matched up against a .500 (or better) opponent coming off a loss. Since 1982, such teams have covered just 25.4 percent of the time. And, yes, it's true that Florida has dominated this series, including winning the last 13 straight-up here in Nashville. But the Commodores are 12-5 ATS when playing with revenge vs. opponents off an upset win. Take Vanderbilt. NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Air Force.  We played on SDSU last week as a huge underdog at Boise State, and were rewarded with a 19-13 upset win.  Some may look for a letdown on Friday night, but not me.  Indeed, winning home favorites of -7+ points, off outright wins as 8-point (or greater) road underdogs the previous week, have cashed 18 in a row vs. losing teams!  Meanwhile, Air Force is a horrid 11-24 ATS away from home vs. conference foes, including 1-8 ATS its last nine.  Lay the points with San Diego State.  Perfect 10 Club.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Liberty.  The Aggies had last week off following their road win at UTEP two weeks ago.  Meanwhile, the Flames are 2-2 this season with an upset win in their opener vs. Old Dominion, and a 52-43 road upset win at the New Mexico Lobos last weekend.  The Flames were a 7-point underdog last week, and one of the things I love to do is go against .500 (or worse) teams in back-to-back road games, if they won as a 7-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, and were playing a rested opponent.  Since 1980, our road teams have cashed just 37%.  Take New Mexico State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over Rice.  The Roadrunners have yet to cash a ticket in Las Vegas this season, but it's not because they've been playing exceptionally poorly.  Rather, their games were mostly point spread coin-flips that just happened to result in losses.  Indeed, the Roadrunners failed to cover their last four games by 1, 3, 3.5 and 0.5 points (an average of 2 points per game).  So, while some will stay away from the Roadrunners for their lack of point spread success, I'm not concerned.  Meanwhile, the Rice Owls have been installed as a small favorite, even though they were underdogs of +25, +17, +13.5 and +28 points in their four games vs. Division 1 foes this season.  And teams that were favored (or PK) at home vs. conference foes off a win, after being double-digit underdogs in each of their three previous game, have cashed just 37% the past 38 years.  Take the Roadrunners.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Old Dominion.  The Owls lost a heartbreaker last week when Middle Tennessee scored a touchdown (and a subsequent 2-point conversion) on a 4th-and-goal play with less than a minute left in the game.  That lowered the Owls' road record this season to 0-3, but it returns home this weekend, where it is undefeated on the season (with wins over Air Force and Bethune-Cookman).  Here, Florida Atlantic will welcome Old Dominion, which is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road this season, with a negative 15.67 scoring margin, and a negative 15.5 point spread differential.  That doesn't bode well for Old Dominion.  And neither does the fact that Conference USA favorites of -8.5 (or more) points are an awesome 31-10 ATS off an upset loss.  Finally, Florida Atlantic falls into 71-29 and 81-32 ATS systems of mine that go against certain conference foes with a losing record.  Take the Owls.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over UNLV.  Last week, the Lobos were upset, 52-43, at home by the Liberty Flames.  So, they'll look to bounce back on Saturday afternoon in their Mountain West Conference opener.  Since 1980, road underdogs off an upset loss the previous week have covered 67.8% in their conference openers.  Both of these teams are saddled with injuries at the quarterback position.  UNLV, though, should suffer more by losing Armani Rogers, than will New Mexico for its injuries.  The Rebels' top QB has excelled this season, with 857 combined yards and 12 TDs (369 passing yards, 488 rushing yards). He'll be replaced by sophomore Max Gilliam, who doesn't have Rogers' explosive speed to make big plays.  In contrast, New Mexico's Sheriron Jones might be the Lobos' 3rd string QB, but he was great last week in relief.  The Lobos were down 42-10 at the half to Liberty, but he threw for 312 yards and four TDs in slightly more than 30 minutes of action to bring the Lobos back in an eventual 9-point loss.  New Mexico has also cashed 75% over the last 38 years off an upset home loss.  Take the Lobos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over LSU.  I love playing on home underdogs with great defenses.  For the season, Florida has held its opponents to just 14 points per game.  And home underdogs, at Game 6 forward, that have a defense which doesn't give up more than 14 ppg have gone 45-22 ATS vs. undefeated teams.  That's one reason I favor the Gators.  Another is that undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record have cashed just 64 of 159 vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Take Florida.  NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks + the points over Akron.  The Red Hawks have covered 12 of 16 conference road games, including a 38-23 blowout win at Bowling Green two weeks ago.  Last Saturday, though, Miami lost a 1-point game, at home, to Western Michigan.  But I love the Red Hawks to bounce back on the road on Saturday, as road teams have cashed 65.3% in Mid American Conference games off a single-digit home loss the previous week.  Take Miami-Ohio + the points.  Underdog Shocker!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Boise State.  The Aztecs have won three straight, and had last weekend off to prepare for this big Mountain West game at Boise State.  Last season, Boise went 7-1 inside the Conference and won the title game.  San Diego State was 6-2, including a 31-14 upset loss, at home.  So, this is a big revenge game for the Aztecs.  Since 1999, rested Mountain West conference teams have cashed 75.8% away from home when playing with revenge vs. conference foes, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when getting 12+ points.  That bodes well for San Diego St.  Also, it's true that Boise has been generally very strong against the spread over the years.  But the reality is that it has beat up on the really bad teams (e.g., 58-35 ATS vs. losing teams), or teams playing poorly (e.g., 51-21 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss), while it has done comparatively worse vs. better teams.  Indeed, Boise has gone 0-12 ATS the last 4 seasons when favored vs. winning teams off a win.  Take the Aztecs.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland.  The Wolves came back from a 17-0 deficit at Northwestern last week, and eked out a 3-point win.  Last week's performance will keep a lot of bettors away from laying double-digits this week with Michigan.  Indeed, the current number, as of this writing, has come down from the opener.  Generally speaking, it's been profitable to back double-digit favorites that failed to cover the spread by 10+ points as a double digit favorite the previous week, if they were now  playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win (which Maryland is).  Since 1980, such double-digit favorites have cashed 57%.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Michigan.  NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Western Michigan.  The Eagles lost a tough game in overtime last week, at home, vs. Northern Illinois.  That lowered EMU's Mid-American Conference record to 0-2 on the season.  But I love the Eagles to bounce back on Saturday, as NCAA Underdogs of +3 or more points, off an upset conference loss, and an 0-2 conference record, have cashed 61% since 1980.  And, although there's nothing wrong with 61%, we can increase our system to 70% if we don't go against any team playing with revenge.  In this series, Eastern Michigan has lost the last four meetings.  The revenger is 13-7 ATS in this series, and the revenger has also cashed 61% of Mid-American Conference games the past 11 years if it was off a home upset loss. Finally, Eastern Michigan falls into 53-15, 84-48 and 54-21 ATS systems that play on certain teams off losses.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Mid American Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincy Bearcats minus the points over Tulane.  The Green Wave shocked the Memphis Tigers, 40-24, last week as a 14.5-point home underdog to move their record to 2-3 on the season.  Unfortunately for Tulane, losing teams rarely pull off two big upsets in a row, and especially not when they're playing on the road against really good teams.  Here, Tulane is tasked with handing the Bearcats their first defeat of the season.  Cincy is 5-0 straight-up (and 4-1 ATS), including wins over UCLA, Miami-Ohio, Ohio U. and UConn.  And, since 1980, underdogs with a losing record have covered the spread just 25% of the time on the road vs. .850 (or better) foes, if they were off an upset win as a 13-point (or greater) underdog.  Take Cincinnati.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas.  We played on Oklahoma last week, and were rewarded with a 66-33 victory over Baylor.  And we also played against Texas, and got the cash with Kansas State, which covered as an 8.5-point underdog.  Once again, we will play on Oklahoma and against Texas.  The Sooners are averaging a whopping 48.6 ppg, and fall into a super NCAA regular season 'momentum' system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any single-digit favorite (or PK) off a SU/ATS win, in which they scored 60+ points, if they are playing a at home, or on a neutral field.  Since 1980, this angle has cashed 72%.  Take Oklahoma to blow out the Longhorns.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Illinois.  Illinois has started the season 2-2 straight-up, and 2-2 ATS.  Yet this will be its first road game of the season, as it had the huge benefit of opening with four straight home games.  I don't like playing on road teams this late in the season, and especially not when installed as a favorite and/or they don't have a winning record.  Indeed, since 1980, road favorites, with a .500 (or worse) record, have cashed just 33% of their conference games, if it was Game 5 forward, and also their first road game of the season.  Even worse for Illinois:  it's been an unreliable favorite, priced from -3 to -10.5 points, with an 18-38 ATS record since 2001.  Take Rutgers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Tulsa.  The Cougars exploded for 70 points last week, and have scored an average of 52.25 ppg this season.  As faithful followers know, I love playing on teams that can score.  And home favorites (or PK), off a win in which they scored 50+ points, have gone 572-426-15 ATS since 1980.  Houston is 35-20 ATS off a win, while Tulsa is 35-63 ATS off back to back losses.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Georgia State.  Last week, the Georgia State Panthers upset Louisiana-Monroe, 46-14, as a 5.5-point home underdog.  But that was the first time (in four games) that the Panthers covered the point spread vs. a Division 1 foe this season.  And its upset win has set it up in a negative, 39-103 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road underdogs off upset wins.  Meanwhile, Troy State has won (and covered) each of its last four games, including a 45-21 blowout of Coastal Carolina last Saturday.  Troy St. has cashed 67% since 2001 vs. foes off a win that had a losing ATS record.  And double-digit underdogs, with a losing SU/ATS record, off an upset win, that covered the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game have cashed just 37.9% since 1980.  Take Troy to blow out Georgia State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State.  This is a rematch of last year's game, when the Nittany Lions also entered it undefeated, but were handed their first loss, 39-38, by the Buckeyes.  This season, the stakes are just as high, as both teams are unbeaten after four games.  After squeaking by Appalachian State in its opener, Penn State has demolished its last three opponents.  It's won its last three games by a combined 177-40, and has covered the spread by an average of 22.16 ppg.  In contrast, the Buckeyes, who have won their last three games by a combined 141-37, have only had a point spread differential of + 6.5 ppg in their last three.  Unfortunately, for Ohio State, teams playing away from home have gone 0-15 SU/ATS against a revenge-minded foe which scored 122+ points in its two previous games, if our road team didn't score 100+ points in its two previous games.  Even worse for the Buckeyes:  home dogs of +2.5 (or more) points, that average more than 29.5 ppg on offense, off back-to-back wins, have gone 236-164 ATS.  Over the last 3 seasons, Penn State is 13-1 ATS off back-to-back wins, and has covered by an average of 10.66 ppg.  Take the Nittany Lions.  Big 10 Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Owls are 2-2 this year, with 2 home wins and 2 road losses. This will be the Owls' 3rd road game of the season. However, in their first two road games they played Oklahoma (currently ranked #6) and Central Florida (currently ranked #13). This road game will be much easier, as Middle Tennessee is unranked, and has nowhere near the talent level of those two other schools. The Owls have been installed as a small favorite in this game. And since November 12, 2016, Florida Atlantic has had a sharp dichotomy in how its performed as a favorite or an underdog. Indeed, the Owls are 14-0 straight-up (9-4-1 ATS) as a favorite, compared to 0-7 straight-up (1-6 ATS) as an underdog. Take the Owls. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over Texas El Paso. On the surface, it might look difficult to play on Texas San Antonio, given that it's 0-4 ATS this season. But the Roadrunners fall into a 65% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses. Meanwhile, UTEP has been the worst team in College Football since last season. It's now lost its last 16 games, straight-up, and is 2-23 SU and 6-17-2 ATS its last 25 lined games. Take the Roadrunners minus the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Florida. Last week, Mississippi State was upset, 28-7, as a double-digit favorite at Kentucky, while Florida won, 47-21, as a 4.5-point favorite at Tennessee. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Gators as a touchdown underdog, given that it covered by more than 21 points, while Mississippi State failed to cover last week by 31 points. However, underdogs of 7 or more points off a cover by 21 or more points have cashed just 38% over the last 30 years vs. opponents off a point spread loss by 21 or more points. That's one reason I favor the Bulldogs. Another is that teams off an upset conference loss by 18 or more points, have covered just 24 of 78 conference games since 1980 vs. foes off a straight-up and against the spread win. This will be a rout. Lay the points with the Bulldogs. SEC Conference Favorite of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles minus the points over Northern Illinois. The Eagles have lost 10 straight games in this series, but have been installed as the favorite. And I love them to finally break through with a win vs. the Huskies, as they fall into a 43-16 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favored teams playing with revenge. Even better: the Eagles have continued to "pay off" in Vegas this season, as they're 3-1 ATS this year, and 20-8 ATS dating back to November 27, 2015 (including 12-2 ATS off a straight-up loss). This will also be the Eagles' first home game after three straight road games. In their only other home game this season, they won 51-17, as a 22.5-point favorite vs. Monmouth. They didn't find the same success away from home, as they went 1-2 SU (but 2-1 ATS). However, I expect them to blow out Northern Illinois, which is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five games away from home. Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Baylor. The Sooners have started this season perfectly, as they're 4-0. But they have failed to cover the point spread for their last three straight games. They'll try to get back into the win column "in Vegas" vs. Baylor this Saturday. Baylor comes into Norman off a 26-7 win over Kansas last week. And we'll lay the points with the Sooners, as undefeated teams, with a 4-0 (or better) record, off three ATS losses, have covered 60% since 1980 vs. foes off a win. Take Oklahoma.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over the Texas Longhorns. Last week, the Longhorns upset TCU, 31-16, as a 2.5-point home underdog. But off that win, we will fade the Longhorns at Kansas State. This will actually be the Longhorns first true road game, played on an opponent's home field, this season. And Texas falls into negative 11-41 and 7-29 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams, off upset wins, playing on the road vs. conference foes. Additionally, Kansas State is an awesome 27-6 ATS in conference games off a loss by 20 or more points. Finally, Big 12 Conference teams have cashed just 42% as road favorites off an upset win since 1980. Take the Wildcats + the points. Big 12 Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over South Alabama. Appy State exploded for 72 points last week, and has covered each of its first three games this season. The Mountaineers are averaging 51.67 points this season, and I love playing on teams that score a lot of points. Indeed, since 1980, NCAA teams have covered the spread 60% in Game 4, if they averaged 50+ points in their first three games, including 71% if they were favored by 25 points or more. And double-digit favorites, after scoring 70+ points in a home win which they covered by 10+ points, have gone 30-11 ATS since 1980. It's true that South Alabama covered a big number at Memphis last week when it was a 31.5-point dog, and only lost by 17. But the Jaguars are a awful 1-12 ATS their last 13 off a point spread win, including 0-8 ATS as an underdog. Take Appalachian State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers upset Louisiana-Lafayette, 30-28, on the road last week, as a 3-point underdog. And they also won and covered at Campbell the previous week. Unfortunately, they now are tasked with playing their third straight road game. And teams off back-to-back SU/ATS road wins, off an upset win, have covered just 37% since 1980 if they were playing their 3rd straight road game. Lay the points with Troy State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Colorado.  On the surface, the Buffaloes look to be the much stronger team.  After all, the Buffaloes are 3-0, while Chip Kelly's UCLA Bruins are 0-3.  But they've played vastly different schedules, in terms of strength of opponent.  Colorado has played Colorado St, which is 1-4 SU and 1-3 ATS; Nebraska, which is 0-3 SU and ATS; and New Hampshire, which is a division II team, and also 0-3 SU.  In contrast, UCLA has played Cincinnati, which is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS; #6-ranked Oklahoma, which is 4-0; and Fresno St., which is 2-1 SU and ATS.  Thus, Colorado's opponents are a combined 1-10 straight-up, while UCLA's previous foes have a current, combined record of 10-1.  One of my favorite NCAA systems goes against Colorado in this game.  That angle is 73-44 ATS, and goes against certain undefeated teams against foes off an ATS loss.  Take UCLA.  NCAA Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over North Carolina.  We played on the Tar Heels last week, and were rewarded with an outright upset win (38-35) by N. Carolina over Pitt.  The Heels now have to travel down to Miami to battle the #16-ranked Hurricanes, who won, 31-17, but failed to cover as a 26-point favorite last week.  That relatively-narrow win by Miami sets up the 'Canes in a 84-37 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams that failed to cover by 10+ points their previous game.  Additionally, North Carolina falls into a negative 29-65 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off a win that are playing poor defense (UNC gives up 33.33 ppg).  Finally, in this series, road teams that won their previous game are 0-8 ATS since 2007.  Take Miami-Fla.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over Air Force. The Falcons have won the last three meetings in this series, but I love Utah State to get revenge on Saturday night. Utah State is 3-0 ATS this season, and comes into this game off back to back blowout wins, in which Utah State scored 60 and 73 points! For the season, Utah State has scored a whopping 164 points (54.67 ppg). I love offensive-minded College teams, and it's been very profitable to play on favorites of -30 points or less that scored 150+ points over their previous three games. Indeed, since 1990, they've cashed 67.1% at home in the regular season when not favored by more than 30 points if they were playing a non-winning opponent. Even better: if our team was also playing with revenge, then our system moves to 77% ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS its last seven. Take the Aggies. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Army. The Black Knights are 2-1 this season after winning back-to-back home games over Liberty and Hawaii. Now, they'll hit the road to play the #5-ranked Oklahoma Sooners, who are 3-0 this season. Army has had its troubles on the road over the last eight years. This season, it was blown out by the Duke Blue Devils, 34-14. And Army is 8-31 straight-up, and 13-25-1 ATS its last 39 on the road. Meanwhile, the Sooners are 10-2 ATS their last 12 at home. And they fall into 49-15, 64-27 and 55-18 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off wins. Take Oklahoma minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over LSU. Last week, the Tigers shocked Auburn as a double-digit underdog, and won 22-21. But off that big upset win, we will fade LSU as a big favorite vs. Louisiana Tech (which is also undefeated this season). Indeed, home teams have cashed just 28% in the regular season since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off a win, if our home team won outright as a double-digit road dog their previous game! Take Louisiana Tech. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State. The Wildcats are 3-0 this season, including an impressive 27-16 victory at Florida, which snapped a 31-game losing streak to the Gators. Now, the Wildcats will attempt to move to 2-0 in SEC Conference play by avenging a 38-point loss to the Bulldogs last season. They've been installed as a double-digit home underdog. And we'll grab the points, as double-digit home underdogs off a win, with a .666 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 57% since 1980 when playing with revenge against a conference opponent. Take Kentucky. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Texas A&M. The Tide have run roughshod over their first three opponents, with wins by 37 (Louisville), 50 (Arkansas State) and 55 (Mississippi) points. And with those blowouts, the Tide has covered the point spread by an average of 20.5 points per game. I look for Alabama to make it four in a row on Saturday, as NCAA Football teams off 3 SU/ATS wins, that scored 50+ points in each of those three games, have cashed 65.7% in the regular season since 1980. Lay the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Virginia. The Cardinals come into this game off three straight ATS losses, while Virginia comes in off three straight ATS wins. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Cavaliers, but winless ATS teams (at Game 4 forward) actually cover the spread more often than not! And Louisville falls into a 152-96 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winless ATS teams. Cardinals coach Bobby Petrino will start redshirt freshman Malik Cunningham this week after the young QB was impressive as a back-up in Louisville's last two games (both wins). The Cards have scored on eight of Cunningham's 12 drives, and has been the most effective rusher (183 yards on 33 carries) this season. In contrast, the erstwhile starter, Jawon Pass, did not lead a drive that ended in points in either of the last two games. This will no doubt be a positive move for Louisville's offense, which has averaged just 5.02 yards per play this season. Take the Cardinals on Saturday.

At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Pittsburgh. UNC has dominated this series since Pittsburgh joined the ACC Conference, with five straight wins since 2013 (4-1 ATS). I look for that dominance to continue today, as Pitt falls into a negative 6-24 ATS system of mine following its upset win over Georgia Tech last week. Additionally, the Tar Heels fall into 75-20 and 90-32 ATS systems of mine which play on certain teams in conference games off losses. Finally, Pitt's cashed just 25% as conference road favorites over the past 38 years off an upset win, while North Carolina is 10-1 ATS as home/neutral field underdogs vs. foes off an upset win the previous week. Take North Carolina.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Georgia.  The Tigers have rolled to an impressive 3-0 record to start the season, and have scored 40+ points in each of their three victories.  Now, they'll face the #3-ranked Bulldogs, who are also 3-0 this season.  These two teams met last season, and Missouri lost, 53-28, in Athens.  But that was the last time the Tigers lost a regular season game.  Since then, they've reeled off nine straight wins.  Don't be surprised if Mizzou pulls off the shocker in Columbia on Saturday afternoon, as NCAA Football teams have cashed 67.05% since 1980 off three straight games where they scored more than 38 points, if they were not playing on the road, and were not favored by more than 3 points.  And if our team was also playing with revenge against a conference foe, then our 67% system zooms to 78%.  Take Missouri + the points.  SEC Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Akron. The Cyclones are 0-2 this year following double-digit losses to Iowa and Oklahoma. But ISU was an underdog in each of those two games; they're going 'down in class,' and favored by double-digits here. Since 1980, Game 3 favorites off back to back losses as underdogs, have covered 80% vs. foes off back to back wins! And that's the situation here, as Akron comes in off wins over Morgan State and Northwestern. Even worse for the Zips: they were a 21-point underdog last week, but won, 39-34. However, teams off back to back wins are an awful 19-41 ATS if they won outright as an 18-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game. Take Iowa State.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Ohio. Last week, the Bearcats drilled Alabama A&M, 63-7, and moved to 3-0 on the season. And it was also the second straight game the Bearcats didn't give up 10 points to their opponent. For the season, Cincy's defense is giving up just eight points per game. And College Football single-digit home favorites (or PK) have cashed 61.5% over the last 38 seasons after scoring 60+ points in a win the previous game. And our angle zooms to 89% ATS if our team also owns a defense that surrenders 8 points or less per game! Lay the points with the Bearcats. NCAA Football High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls + the points over Central Florida.  The Owls have won their last two games on the scoreboard, but are 0-3 "in Vegas," as they've yet to cover the point spread in the season's first three weeks.  They'll try to finally cash a ticket on Friday night when they travel to Orlando to play Central Florida, which had last weekend off after its 38-0 win vs. South Carolina State.  And that was the 15th straight win for the Knights, dating back to last season.  However, when teams (like Florida Atlantic) start the season 0-3 ATS (or worse), I'll definitely start to look to play on them (for reasons of "point spread value") if certain, other factors are present.  Here, Florida Atlantic falls into a 152-96 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .500 (or better) teams that have failed to cover any of their games.  That doesn't bode well for the Knights on Friday.  And neither does the fact that Central Florida has not fared well over the years vs. other Florida universities, as it's gone 7-12 ATS, including 2-10 ATS vs. foes off a win.  Take Florida Atlantic + the points.  NCAA ELITE INFO. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes didn't need their suspended head coach, Urban Meyer, in their first two games.  But they may come to rue the fact he wasn't available for this game, as TCU could very well pull the outright upset.  Of course, we don't need TCU to win outright -- we just need it to cover this bloated, double-digit point spread.  And I think it will, as TCU enters off a 30-point win (42-12) at SMU last Friday.  And that followed up another impressive effort in Week 1, when TCU shut down Southern University, 55-7.  Thus, TCU's given up just 9.5 ppg, on defense.  And that bodes well for them, here, as College Football underdogs of more than three points, are 68-38 ATS if they give up 9.5 ppg (or less).  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Alabama.  This is a big revenge game for Mississippi, which lost by 63 points to 'Bama last season.  And that was the worst defeat by Ole Miss in the 123-year history of this series.  Alabama, the defending National Champion, is now 2-0 SU/ATS this season, with blowout wins over Louisville and Arkansas State.  But off those two wins, we'll fade the Crimson Tide, as defending National Champs are an awful 31.8% ATS away from home over the past 38 seasons off back to back SU/ATS wins!  Even better:  Ole Miss is 33-18 ATS as a revenge-minded underdog in SEC Conference games, if Ole Miss was off a win.  Take Mississippi + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars are 0-2 on the season, and a horrid 0-10 ATS their last 10 Sun Belt games as favorites of -4+ points, yet have been installed as a big favorite over Sun Belt conference rival, Texas State.  That doesn't bode well for South Alabama this evening.  And neither does the fact that Sun Belt home favorites of -7 (or more) points are a dreadful 70-102 ATS.  Finally, the Jaguars fall into negative 31-80 and 29-104 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Bobcats + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  Both Buffalo and EMU come into this Mid-American Conference opener with 2-0 records.  And each also comes into this game off upset wins:  Eastern Michigan stunned Purdue, 20-19, as a 15-point underdog last week, while Buffalo pulled off a milder upset, with a 36-29 victory at Temple, as a 4-point dog.  We'll go against the Eagles on this Saturday evening, as teams off upset wins by less than 10 points, as double-digit dogs, have gone just 77-137 ATS as dogs in the regular season vs. foes off a straight-up win.  Additionally, the Bulls are 21-11 ATS their last 32 games at home, including 7-0 ATS their last seven when they lost the previous meeting to their opponent.  And the Eagles are an awful 0-11 straight-up and 1-10 ATS off a win vs. Mid-American Conference foes also off a win.  Take Buffalo.  MAC Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Colorado State.  Last week, the Gators were upset at home, 27-16, as a 13.5-point favorite by the Kentucky Wildcats.  Meanwhile, the Rams pulled their own upset last week, 34-27, as a 14-point underdog over Arkansas.  Can Colorado State make it two upsets in a row over an SEC Conference foe?  Not likely, as underdogs of +12 or more points, off an upset win as an underdog of +12 points or more, have cashed just 19.1% over the past 38 years vs. foes off an upset loss.  Yikes!  Moreover, the Gators are a solid 21-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes in the regular season when priced from -3.5 to -23 points, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when the Gators were off a point spread defeat. NCAA Game of the Week.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over BYU.  Last week, we had our College Football Game of the Month on California against BYU, as we faded the Cougars off their upset win over Arizona as a double-digit underdog.  And it was an easy win for us, as California's defense completely shut down BYU in a 21-18 victory which wasn't as close as the final score indicated.  Indeed, BYU's only offensive touchdown of the game came with under a minute to play, as its first touchdown came off an interception return, so California held BYU's offense out of the end zone for the first 59 minutes of the game.  Now BYU will have to travel to Madison to take on the 2-0 Badgers.  These two teams met last season in Utah, and the Cougars couldn't find the end zone for that game, either, as they lost 40-6, and were held to 192 yards of offense, though it's true that BYU QB Tanner Mangum wasn't available for that game.  It's also true that Wisconsin has lost both of its games against the spread.  But undefeated teams off back to back ATS losses that are also winless against the spread for the season, have covered 59.2% as favorites over the past 38 years.  I like Wisconsin here.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Boise State.  This is a great match-up of two Top 25-ranked teams.  Okie State is led by senior QB Taylor Cornelius, who has masterfully directed the Cowboys' up-tempo offense in their first two games.  Cornelius has passed for 728 yards, with six touchdown passes.  Last week, Oklahoma State rolled up 55 points vs. an outmatched South Alabama squad.  And Okie State is 36-11 ATS off a win, in which it scored 50+ points.  Meanwhile, Boise's covered just 17 of 46 road games vs. foes off a win, if Boise wasn't getting 3.5 (or more) points.  And the Broncos have also just covered 36% on the road vs. foes that scored 42+ in their previous game.  Take Oklahoma St.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets minus the points over Pittsburgh.  Last week, we played against Ga Tech, and got the $$$ when South Florida came back from a double-digit, 4th quarter deficit to upset the Jackets, 49-38.  If there was a silver lining for Paul Johnson's squad, it was that it out-gained South Florida on offense, 602 yards to 426.  Unfortunately, they coughed up 2 interceptions and 1 fumble (while only forcing 1 turnover on defense).  And they allowed 2 kick returns to go for touchdowns.  Johnson stated in his press conference that personnel changes (e.g., using more veterans) would be made to shore up his kick return defense, so that should help.  It's also worth noting that Georgia Tech is 5-0 ATS the last couple of years after a game where it had a negative 2 (or worse) turnover differential.  Last season, Georgia Tech blew out Pitt, 35-17, and out-yarded the Panthers 484 to 235.  This will be a similar beatdown.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Florida State.  The Orange are 2-0 SU and ATS after smashing Western Michigan and Wagner the last two weekends.  In contrast, Florida State has gotten out of the gate slowly, with an upset loss to ACC Conference foe Virginia Tech on Labor Day, followed by an unimpressive 36-26 win last week, at home, vs. Samford.  The Seminoles have not covered an ACC Conference game in their last nine, which certainly doesn't bode well for them, here.  And neither does the fact that the Orange have piled up 117 points in their first two games, as home dogs of more than 2 points, with a scoring average greater than 29.5 points, are 229-152-4 ATS!  Take Syracuse.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over BYU.  Last Saturday, the Cougars went into Arizona and upset the Wildcats, 28-23, as an 11.5-point underdog.  BYU now returns home to take on another Pac-12 Conference team in the California Golden Bears, who also won last week -- by 7 -- at home vs. North Carolina.  I look for BYU to have a major letdown on Saturday night, as favorites of less than 16 points have covered just 20.6 percent of the time since 1980 off an upset win (as a dog of +6 or more points) in their season opener.  Additionally, Pac-12 Conference underdogs of +11 (or less) points are a solid 162-115, 58.4% ATS since 1980 in non-conference games, including 67-38 ATS vs. foes off an ATS win.  Take California + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks over the Cincinnati Bearcats.  Last week, the Bearcats went into the Rose Bowl, and upset UCLA, 26-17, as a 14-point underdog.  Now, they'll come back to the Queen City to play their rival, Miami-Ohio, at Paul Brown Stadium.  This is the most-played, currently active rivalry between non-conference teams, as this will be the 123rd meeting.  Miami leads the series 59-56-7, but Cincinnati has won the last 12 games in a row.  I look for Miami to snap this long losing streak, as revenge-minded teams have cashed 74.1% since 1982 vs. non-conference foes off an upset win as a 2-touchdown underdog!  Moreover, Cincy has covered just 25 of 63 off a road win, while Miami-Ohio has gone 21-10 ATS off a SU/ATS home loss.  Take the Red Hawks.  NCAA Rivalry Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over TCU.  Last week, in its home opener, TCU smashed Southern U., 55-7, while SMU lost at North Texas, 46-23.  This Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex rivalry has been owned by the Horned Frogs for the last six years, including a 56-36 victory last season.  But even though the Mustangs haven't won outright since 2011, they've covered the point spread for three of the last six seasons (and 10 of the last 15 meetings).  As with many heated rivalries, the underdog has brought home the bacon in this series, as the dog has gone 22-12-1 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for TCU:  double-digit Road Favorites, off a home win in their season opener the previous week, have cashed just 26% since 1980 against revenge-minded foes off a loss!  Finally, SMU falls into a 126-68 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams playing with revenge from a blowout loss by more than 15 points.  Take the Mustangs.  Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders + the points over Vanderbilt.  This will be the final season that Middle Tennessee coach Rick Stockstill will have his son, Brent Stockstill, as the team's starting QB.  And his son is one of 16 returning starters (eight offensive; eight defensive) for the Blue Raiders (in contrast, Vandy returns just 12 starters).  Stockstill's accomplished a lot in his MTSU career as the QB, including setting school records for touchdowns (77), passing yards per game (288.7) and completions (729).  However, one thing he's never done is defeat Vanderbilt.  Last season, the Commodores blew out Middle Tennessee, 28-6, as a 2.5-point favorite.  And they also defeated the Blue Raiders, 47-24, two seasons ago, and 17-13 the year before that.  We'll grab the points with Middle Tennessee in a revenge role on Saturday night, as they fall into a 54-23 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take Middle Tennessee.  NCAA Football Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines over Notre Dame.  When these two midwest rivals last met, the Fighting Irish whitewashed Michigan, 31-0.  I look for Michigan to avenge that defeat, as teams that were shutout in their previous meeting have gone 128-93-6 ATS if they weren't an underdog of 4+ points in the current game.  Moreover, in a season's opening game for both teams, it's been extremely profitable to play on teams that were shutout in the previous meeting, as they've gone 61.6% ATS the past 38 seasons, including a perfect 8-0 ATS since 2012.  Finally, the team that lost the previous meeting in this series has gone 20-7 ATS since 1981, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from PK to +7.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over SMU.  Last year, the Mean Green lost by 22 points to their Dallas Metroplex rival, SMU.  And that was the 3rd straight loss suffered by North Texas to SMU over the last three seasons.  But SMU was favored in each of those games.  And the favorite has actually won and covered four straight in this series.  This season, the Mean Green have been installed as the favorite, and North Texas has cashed 64.7% the past seven years as a home favorite (and 60% the past 18 years).  Additionally, SMU has been very poor as a road underdog or 10 points or less (or PK), as it's covered just 9 of 42 games since 1994, including 0-12 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Finally, North Texas falls into a 34-12 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with double-revenge.  Take the Mean Green.  Perfect 10 Club play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers over Washington.  It's easy to forget just how good the Auburn Tigers were last season, given how they finished (with two straight losses).  But at the end of the last year's regular season, the Tigers were ranked 2nd in the nation, and owned wins over both Alabama (26-14) and Georgia (40-17) -- the two teams that eventually competed in the Championship Game.  Unfortunately for Auburn, it had to defeat Georgia a second time in the SEC Championship game, but fell to the Bulldogs, 28-7.  And it, not surprisingly, had a letdown in the Peach Bowl and lost to Central Florida, 34-27.  But it's a new season, and the Tigers enter it ranked 9th in the AP's Poll, and 10th in the Coaches' Poll.  On Saturday afternoon, they'll play the 6th-ranked Washington Huskies at a neutral (but SEC friendly) site -- Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium.  The SEC has long been the best football conference in the country, while the Pac-12 Conference hasn't won a National Championship in 14 seasons (the longest, current stretch of failure among the Power 5 Conferences).  With that as a backdrop, it's awfully tough to go against a great SEC team at this price.  Indeed, since 1981, SEC teams that had a win percentage of .700 (or better) the previous season, have gone 46-12 straight-up and 39-18-1 ATS in their opening game, if against a non-conference foe, and priced from +3.5 to -21 points (and 16-5 ATS if their opponent also had a win percentage the previous year of .700+).  Take Auburn.  NCAA Elite Info Play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Georgia.  Back in late November, I recommended a futures wager on the Crimson Tide +425 to win the National Championship, as I thought it was the best team in the country, and I had no doubt it would be eventually selected for the Playoffs ahead of the team which would win the Ohio State/Wisconsin game.  The Crimson Tide easily blew out the team (Clemson) which ranked #2 in my power ratings, and now they'll face a very solid Georgia ballclub.  But, as I wrote in my analysis last week for the 'Bama/Clemson game, Nick Saban (along with Urban Meyer) is one of the two best coaches in College Football.  And he excels in competitively-priced games, with point spreads less than five points.  In that situation, he's a fantastic 36-17 SU/ATS, including a PERFECT 8-0 SU/ATS in the Post-Season!  That bodes well for the Crimson Tide in this Championship game.  As does the fact that the Tide has won the last three meetings vs. the Bulldogs, by an average of 14.33 ppg.  Finally, the Tide has the best scoring defense in the country, as it gives up just 11 ppg.  And, since 1989, favorites of -10 or less points have cashed 64.5% in the Bowls (including a perfect 4-0 this season) if they don't give up more than 19 ppg, and their defense is at least 4.5 points better than their opponent's defense.  Take Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, on New Year's Day, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Clemson.  Nick Saban (along with Urban Meyer) is one of the two best coaches in College Football.  And he excels in competitively-priced games, with point spreads less than five points.  In that situation, he's a fantastic 35-17 SU/ATS, including a PERFECT 7-0 SU/ATS in the Post-Season!  I won't fade those numbers.  Moreover, Alabama is 58-26 ATS since 1984 when playing away from home off a point spread defeat.  And teams off upset losses to end their season have cashed 62% in bowl games when not laying 3.5+ points.  Finally, defending National Champions (like Clemson) are an awful 9-26-1 ATS off a SU/ATS win when not laying more than 10 points, including 0-7-1 ATS as an underdog. Take Alabama.  BOWL FAVORITE OF THE YEAR!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami Fla Hurricanes + the points over Wisconsin.  The Hurricanes stumbled down the stretch with back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Clemson end their season.  But I love Miami to rebound here, as Bowl teams off back to back SU/ATS losses have cashed 61% since 1980 when not favored by 3+ points.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Iowa State.  The Tigers ended their season with a loss at Central Florida in the American Athletic Conf. Championship game, while ISU fell by a point, at Kansas State.  But even though Memphis lost in the American Athletic Conf. Title game, just playing in that sort of atmosphere generally is of great benefit to teams in the Bowl games.  Indeed, if one plays on a Bowl team which made its Conference Championship game, one would have cashed 55% in the Bowls, including 62% if our team wasn't favored by more than 4 points.  That bodes well for the Tigers this afternoon.  As does the fact that the Tigers will be playing at home, in the Liberty Bowl.  And home teams off losses have cashed 63.1% in Bowl games since 1980.  Take Memphis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Louisville.  The Cardinals and Bulldogs both finished the season with solid 8-4 records, though Miss State owned the better ATS mark (7-5 ATS compared to Louisville's 5-7 ATS).  The Bulldogs, though, were upset in their last game, 31-28, by Ole Miss, while Louisville blew out Kentucky, 44-17.  Unfortunately for Louisville, teams off SU/ATS wins have been dreadful away from home in Bowl games vs. foes off upset losses, when favored by 3+ points, as they've cashed just 20.5% over the last 37 years.  Take Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Northwestern.  Kentucky was 7-5 on the season, but finished its regular season with back-to-back losses, at Georgia, and at home vs. Louisville.  However, those two opponents were superior to Kentucky, which as installed as a double-digit underdog in each game, so there was no great shame in losing each of them.  In contrast, Northwestern ended its regular season with two dominant defensive performances:  a 39-0 shutout of the Golden Gophers, and a 42-7 blowout of Illinois, and finished the season with a 9-3 record.  But it must be noted that neither of Northwestern's last two opponents was very good this season.  Illinois was 2-10, and finished the year on an 10-game losing streak (and averaged just 13.1 ppg over its last nine games).  Minnesota was better than Illinois, but it still only won five of its 12 games (and only won two of its nine Big 10 Conference games).  It also ended the season with back-to-back shutout losses, and scored 10 points or less in four of its final five games.  So, all of this puts Northwestern's last two defensive games in a better perspective.  We'll fade Northwestern, as .900 (or worse) Bowl teams have gone 0-15 ATS over the last 21 years if they didn't give up 13+ points in each of their two previous games, and they were not playing an opponent with a better record.  Also, underdogs off back to back losses have covered 69% in the Bowls over the last 38 years vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Kentucky.  NCAA FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars + the points over Michigan State.  Wazzu has been installed as the underdog in this match-up vs. the Spartans.  But we'll grab the points, as rested Pac-12 Conference teams have gone 21-0 ATS since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off a win, if our Pac-12 team owned a W/L percentage of .600 (or better).  Take Washington State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Naval Academy over Virginia.  There are two things that I try to not do when betting the Bowl games.  One is to go against a Service Academy.  As I mentioned last weekend in my write-up for my NCAA Game of the Week Winner on Army, the Service Academies have excelled in the Bowls.  They're now 32-14 ATS (following Army's win) since 1980.  And the other thing I will rarely do in Bowl games is go against a team playing at home.  This game, of course, is being played in Annapolis, at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.  And that's a big disadvantage for Virginia, which is 7-27 ATS on the road when priced from +1 to -11 points vs. .375 (or better) foes.  Take Navy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Boston College.  The Iowa Hawkeyes' senior class has lost Bowl games each of the past three seasons, so I expect the Hawkeyes to be extremely motivated this afternoon to break their losing streak in the Bowls.  Iowa falls into 135-84, 36-25 and 89-38 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Hawkeyes. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Duke.  The Huskies were upset, 31-24, as a 2.5-point favorite in their final regular season game by Central Michigan.  Meanwhile, Duke stunned Wake Forest, 31-23, as a 10.5-point underdog to end its regular season.  Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, teams have covered just 34.7% in the Bowls since 1980 off an upset win, if they covered by more than 10 points in that upset, and they're now matched up against an opponent off an upset loss.  Additionally, the Huskies are 7-0 ATS since 2012 vs. foes off an upset win.  Take the Huskies + the points.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars over the Fresno State Bulldogs.  The Bulldogs have had no success in the Bowl games over the past nine years.  They've played in six Bowl games and are a horrid 0-6 SU/ATS.  And they've lost by an average of 19.5 ppg!  Even worse:  since 1980, Fresno State has made 16 bowl games, but it is 0-8 ATS in the Bowls when it wasn't getting 3+ points.  We'll take Houston tonight, as it falls into several of my favorite systems, with records of 112-56, 53-17 and 89-37 ATS.  Take the Cougars.  NCAA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Appalachian State.  These two teams met in last year's Camellia Bowl.  The Mountaineers were favored by a point, and won that game, 31-28.  Thus, Toledo will look to avenge that defeat.  And I think they'll get it, as teams playing with revenge from a loss in the same, or previous season, have generally performed well in Bowl games.  And especially if they didn't lose the previous meeting by 17+ points.  In that situation, they're 13-1-1 ATS since 2008.  Lay the points with Toledo. NCAA Bowl Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over San Diego State.  The Service Academies (Army, Navy and Air Force) have always excelled in the Bowl games, no doubt due to the extreme discipline and preparedness that permeate the programs.  Indeed, dating back to 1980, the three academies are 31-14 ATS in the Bowl games, with Army leading the pack at 5-1, 83% ATS.  And they're a combined 14-3 ATS when getting more than six points.  That bodes well for the Black Knights on Saturday.  As does the fact that the Aztecs are 2-5 ATS their last seven as a favorite in the post-season.   Finally, Army led the nation with 356 rushing yards per game, and also was among the Top 5 in yards per rush, with 6.1.  And over the last 22 seasons, underdogs of more than four points have cashed 100% (10-0 ATS) in the Bowls if they average at least 5.75 yards per rush.  Take Army.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Central Michigan.  Wyoming ended its season with two straight defeats.  It lost 13-7, at home, to Fresno State.  And then was upset, 20-17, as an 18-point favorite at San Jose St.  But QB Josh Allen didn't play in either game.  He's expected to be back under center this afternoon, and that will greatly help the Cowboys' offense.  Meanwhile, Central Michigan upset Northern Illinois, 31-24, as a 2.5-point underdog in its last regular season game.  Unfortunately, since 1980, teams off upset wins to end their regular season have cashed just 36% in Bowl games away from home vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Wyoming.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Miami Hurricanes + the points over Clemson.  Last year, the Tigers won the ACC and National Championships, so they hope to repeat that feat by taking the first step this Saturday night in Charlotte.  The Tigers do come into this game off five straight wins and three straight covers, including a 34-10 victory at South Carolina last week, as a 12-point favorite.  But that 24-point win (and 12-point cover) sets up Clemson in a nasty 0-21 ATS situation which hasn't lost in 37 years.  What we want to do is play against any defending National Champ away from home if it's off back to back wins, not favored by 17+ points, and covered the point spread the previous week by 5+ points.  That doesn't bode well for Dabo Swinney's men on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that Clemson is a wallet-busting 12-32 ATS off 5+ wins since 1984.  Take Miami + the points.  NCAA FB TITLE GAME OF THE YEAR!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves over Troy State.  The Red Wolves put up 67 points last week in a blowout win at Louisiana Monroe.  And I love Arkansas State to end the season strong, as home teams have cashed 79 percent since 1980 in their final game of the season after scoring 52+ points on the road the previous week.  Take the Red Wolves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars + the points over New Mexico St.  The Jaguars were whitewashed, 52-0, in an upset loss to Georgia Southern two weeks ago.  But I look for them to bounce back on Saturday.  Indeed, underdogs priced from +7 to +16 points, off losses by 38+ points, have covered 83% ATS since 1989 in their final game of the season when playing an opponent off a win.  Take the Jaguars.