Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value Play* Edinson Volquez as a favorite against a quality team is almost an automatic fade for me. Volquez just isn't a reliable pitcher and he's pitching for a team that I believe is conistently being overrated by the oddsmakers. Pittsburgh isn't the same team they were last year. Volquez has put together four bad outings in a row, and he is a very streaky guy. Washington's lineup isn't great now, but I expect them to get a few. The Nationals start rookie Blake Treinen here. Treinen has pitched well in the minors. The Nationals also have the best bullpen in baseball, and that could play a major factor in this game. The Nationals are 43-19 in their last 62 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Boston Red Sox were swept by the Detroit Tigers and now they have lost the first two games of their series against Toronto. Boston may not be as good as they were last year, but they aren't as bad as they have been playing lately. They also are a team with a bunch of pride. Getting them at a reasonable price here looking to avoid the sweep is something I'll definitely take. Jon Lester has been very sharp this year. The Red Sox are 7-1 in his last 8 home starts vs. the Blue Jays. Mark Buerhle has pitched very well this year, but the Red Sox have hit him hard in the past and he's due for some regression based on how many runners he has been stranding on base so far this year. Take Boston here. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Cole Hamels and Henderson Alvarez will start in this one. Wednesday night's game between these two teams saw each team pick up 14 hits. I expect a much better showing from the pitchers in this one. Hamels has a sparkling 1.98 ERA in his career at Miami. Hamels' style of pitching fits in perfectly with this Miami ballpark. It is a pitcher's park, and Hamels has shown he knows how to use it. The Phillies offense is much weaker this year than it has been in the last few seasons. It's getaway day here too, which means both teams might sit a key player or two. The under is 8-0 in Hamels' last 8 games against Miami. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 games at Miami. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Betting unders at Coors Field isn't a lot of fun. Still, I have to bet an under whenever I see value, and I see it here. Matt Cain isn't pitching as well as he used to, but he is far from a bad pitcher. The Giants bullpen is excellent. The Giants offense is up and down. The Rockies start Chacin in this one, and he has been good at Coors Field in the past, and he has a good track record against most of the guys on this Giants roster. A total set this high is rare at night for Coors Field since day games are usually much higher scoring. Though this isn't a "fun" play to make, I'm taking the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Athletics offense has been excellent this year, and they have been crushing left-handed pitching in recent weeks. Erik Bedard is coming off some good outings, but I think he is due to regress. Bedard isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago, and I don't expect him to keep up his impressive form. Tom Milone has a 4.72 ERA on the road in his career, and his career ERA vs. the Rays is just over 7. The Rays should get to him for several runs here. This total is set awfully low for these two pitchers.

The over is 3-0-1 in Oakland's last 4 during game two of a series. The over is 7-0 in Milone's last 7 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 7-1 in the A's last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter. The over is 3-0-1 in Bedard's last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 20-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox will be up against Drew Hutchison in this one and I like what I've seen out of him. Hutchison is a strikeout pitcher who the Red Sox haven't seen much at all, and I think that gives him the advantage here. Boston's offense isn't clicking right now. Clay Buchholz has struggled badly this year, but his career numbers are awesome against Toronto. He has a sparkling 2.52 ERA in 19 appearances in his career against the Jays. It will be a cool damp night in Boston which should help out as well.

The under is 5-0 in Hutchison's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 7-0 in Boston's last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall vs. a righty. The under is 3-0-1 in Buchholz's last 4 home starts with a total of 9 or higher. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of Week* The Baltimore Orioles are a slight underdog here, and that makes them a massive value in my book. I think Baltimore should be -125 to -130 here. Wandy Rodriguez isn't healthy and he hasn't been sharp in any of his starts this year. I'm looking to fade Rodriguez at every opportunity. Here is a good opportunity. Baltimore is starting to heat up offensively. Chris Davis is getting going, and with Machado and Jones also in the middle of the order this team can score runs. Chris Tillman pitches well on the road, and the Pirates offense is poor. Pittsburgh is still overrated this year because of last year's success. All signs point to this being a strong play. 

Baltimore is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the NL Central. They are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. They are 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 road starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 0-6 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in his last 4 following a game where the Pirates allowed 5 runs or more. The Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. A 41-0 angle. Take the Orioles big! 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Texas Rangers offense hasn't been up to par of late, but this is still a lineup that will score a lot of runs this year. Prince Fielder says he expects to be back in the lineup Wednesday and that would be a nice boost. They'll be up against Chris Young here, and Young is due for some real regression since he isn't striking out many guys and opponents have a very low Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) against him this year. Seattle's offense is much better this year, and Tepesch is serviceable, but he is far from a strong pitcher. Day games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington generally see lots of fireworks. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Madison Bumgarner is a very good starting pitcher. Bumgarner is entering his prime and I expect big things from him this year and in the future. Bumgarner does a good job locating all of his pitches, and he mixes up speeds very well. The Rockies have been playing well of late, but I'm not convinced this team is quite as good as they have shown recently. Colorado has a bad bullpen and questionable starting rotation. They can definitely hit, but I see Bumgarner slowing them down here. Morales starts for the Rockies here, and I'm not convinced he can quiet this Giants lineup that has been great against lefties this year.

San Francisco is 5-0 in their last 5 following an off day. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a left-handed starter. They are 5-0 in their last 5 during game one of a series. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 as an underdog of +110 to +150. A 23-0 angle. Take San Francisco. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Seattle Mariners deserve to be a much bigger favorite than they are in this game. Hisashi Iwakuma is back from injury and he is healthy and pitching with tons of confidence. Iwakuma hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts, and his stuff is truly electric. Colby Lewis isn't getting the strikeouts he used to, and he is a guy who has to get strike outs or he can't be a quality pitcher. Lewis gives up too many long balls, and he has an ERA above 5 in his career at home in Texas. 

Seattle is 8-1 in their last 9 as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are 7-1 in their last 8 following an off day. Texas is 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Texas is 1-7 in their last 8 as a home underdog. A 28-3 angle. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds both have battered lineups. The top two hitters from the Reds lineup (Votto and Bruce) are both out with injuries. The top two hitters from the Nationals lineup (Harper and Zimmerman) are both out with injuries as well. Both of these offenses have really been struggling to string together hits. Johnny Cueto is pitching as well as any pitcher in baseball, and I expect a strong outing from him again here. This is a guy who has been mowing down even the best lineups. Doug Fister pitched great in his last outing, and he's backed by the best bullpen in baseball. It's a low total, but I see a strong potential for a 2-1 type of game. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Scott Carroll isn't a guy I expect to see in the big leagues for much longer. He has never had much success in Triple A, so I don't see why we should expect him to be able to get out major league hitters consistently. After a couple pretty good starts early on this year, Carroll has been bombed in his last two outings. Kansas City's Jason Vargas has struggled at home, and the White Sox have several guys who have hit the ball extremely well off him in the past. The weather will be a factor here as well. The wind is expected to be blowing 20-25 MPH out toward left center field here. That makes a big difference in this ballpark. I see plenty of runs being scored here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Wily Peralta and Mike Minor are both up and coming young pitchers. These are two guys that I expect big things from in the next few seasons. Peralta has been great away from home this year, and Minor has been very good in two of his first three starts of the season. Both of these offenses have been scuffling of late. The Braves average just 2.87 runs per game this year against right-handed starters. The Brewers are missing Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Gomez is questionable due to the stomach flu. Also important to note here that both teams have shutdown bullpens. 

The under is 4-0-1 in the Brewers last 5 games set at a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 home games after a road trip of 7 days or more. The under is 3-0-1 in Minor's last 4 starts vs. the Brewers. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. A 33-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Detroit Tigers are playing the best baseball of anyone in the majors right now. I suspect this line is set the way it is partly because Detroit just played Sunday night in Boston and will get in a little bit late to Cleveland for this series. I think this angle is overplayed, especially when the flight isn't a terribly long one as is the case here. Drew Smyly is consistently underrated, and the Indians are hitting just .208 as a team against left-handed pitching this year. The Tigers are hitting .273 against both righties and lefties. Cory Kluber is a good pitcher for the Indians, but Miguel Cabrera and this Tigers lineup have had his number. Kluber's ERA against Detroit is 5.50. The Tigers deserve to be the clear favorite here.

Detroit is 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog. They are 7-0 in their last 7 road games against a right-handed pitcher. They are 5-0 in their last 5 as a road underdog. They are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less. They are 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 5-0 in their last 5 games in Cleveland. The Indians are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. They are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. A 44-0 angle. Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Los Angeles Dodgers took it on the chin in a big way last night. With Clayton Kershaw pitching, the Dodgers seemed like a sure bet against Arizona on Saturday night. Instead, the Dodgers were beaten 18-7 by the lowly Diamondbacks. Arizona pounded out 21 hits in that game. I liked the Dodgers on Sunday to begin with, but I like them a little bit more after getting crushed on Saturday night. This team has plenty of pride, and they have a good starter going Sunday in Dan Haren. Haren has put together a nice comeback season this year, and he is really commanding all of his pitches very well. Josh Collmenter pitches for Arizona, and his career ERA is above 5 against the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the much better team, and they should be highly motivated. 

The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 games at Arizona. The DBacks are 2-12 in their last 14 as a home underdog. A 25-4 angle. Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays are both without a ton of their star hitters right now. Tampa Bay is without Ben Zobrist and they'll likely be without Desmond Jennings for a second straight game. Josh Hamilton and David Freese are both out for the Angels. David Price starts in this one for the Rays, and he pitched his best game in a very long time in his last outing. Price started a little rocky this year, but he is definitely an elite pitcher. Shoemaker makes just his third career big league start for the Angels in this one. He gets a Tampa Bay team that is somewhat offensively challenged to start with, and now they are without two of their four best hitters.

The real kicker in this game that made this a play for me is the home plate umpire. Bill Miller is behind the dish here. He's my single favorite under umpire, and his strike zone is massive. It seems to get even bigger on Sunday (getaway day). The under is an amazing 31-6 in his last 37 Sunday games. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Nationals and New York Mets are both offensively challenged right now. Washington is missing their top two hitters, and the Mets have a weak offense around David Wright. Zack Wheeler and Jordan Zimmermann are two guys who can normally be trusted to deliver a quality start. The Mets bullpen has been much better this year (13th in the majors), and the Nationals are a top three bullpen in the majors. The wind will be blowing in during this one as well.

The under is 2-0-2 in the Mets last 4 games. The under is 2-0-2 in Wheeler's last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 4-0-1 in the Nats last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 3-0-2 in their last 5 as a home favorite. An 11-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels have a distinct pitching advantage here with C.J. Wilson on the hill. Wilson has been good this year, and his numbers when pitching at home with the Angels have been very good (3.15 ERA). I faded Cesar Ramos last time out, and I'm doing it again here. Ramos isn't a true starter, and I don't see him staying in the rotation much longer. The Angels were shutout last night by Chris Archer, and that makes me like this play even more as I see a great chance for them to bounce back. Take the Angels here. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Colorado Rockies cashed in for me last night, and I'm going back to the well here. I had the Rockies -1.5 on Friday, but this time the moneyline is low enough for me to feel comfortable grabbing it instead. Jordan Lyles continues to prove his doubters wrong this year. Lyles was great in college and solid in the minors, and it makes sense that he could be a pretty good big league pitcher. Robbie Erlin has never pitched in Coors Field and he has struggled away from home. I don't think he'll fare well against a Rockies lineup that torches left-handed pitching. The Rockies are batting almost .300 against lefties this year. 

Colorado is 6-0 in their last 6 with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. They are 8-1 in their last 9 as a favorite of -110 to -150. San Diego is 0-4 in Erlin's last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. They are also 0-4 in their last 4 as a road underdog of +110 to +150. A 26-1 angle. Take Colorado. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The New York Yankees lineup hasn't quite put it all together this year, but this team is going to score a lot of runs. They have a patient lineup that will make you work, and that should work to their advantage against a guy like Edinson Volquez. Volquez walks a ton of people and gets himself into a lot of jams. Volquez started the year well, but he has been fading fast. I don't trust Volquez at all. David Phelps is just mediocre, but that should be enough against a weak Pirates offense in this one. Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers are a much better team overall than the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers may or may not have Carlos Gomez back in this one, but Ryan Braun will definitely be back in the lineup after missing Friday's game. Braun is obviously the key piece on this team. The Cubs offense is very weak outside of Rizzo and Castro. Matt Garza should be highly motivated to go against his old team in a place where he has pitched very well in the past. Edwin Jackson is a pitcher I tend to fade when given the chance. Milwaukee has a huge bullpen advantage here as well. 

The Brewers are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The Brewers are 4-0 in Garza's last 4 as a favorite. They are 4-0 in his last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The Cubs are 0-6 in Jackson's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-0 angle. Take Milwaukee. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The St. Louis Cardinals are just 22-20 so far this year, but I still believe they are the best team in the National League. I expect to see plenty of times to back this team in the coming weeks and months. This is a very well-rounded team. The offense has underperformed most of the year, but they are very good. The bullpen is much improved. Shelby Miller has been questionable this year, but his track record at home is exceptional. Miller has an ERA well below 2 in his career at home. Aaron Harang is pitching way above his head right now, and he is due to regress at some point. The Cardinals offense is slowly heating up.

The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. They are 6-0 in Miller's last 6 starts when the team allowed 2 runs or less last game. They are 4-0 in Miller's last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in this last 4 starts overall. The Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 as an underdog. They are 0-4 in their last 4 as a road underdog. A 27-0 angle. Take the Cardinals. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Jorge De La Rosa has owned the San Diego Padres in the past. The Rockies are a perfect 7-0 in De La Rosa's last 7 home starts against the Padres. The Rockies are 11-1 in his last 12 starts vs. San Diego overall. The Padres have the worst offense in baseball. Colorado piles up the runs at Coors Field, and I don't see San Diego being able to keep up. Eric Stults is a below average lefty, and the Rockies have an OBP of .350 against lefties as a team. The Rockies are 40-12 in De La Rosa's last 52 home starts. Big advantages in both lineup and starting pitching for Colorado. Take the Rockies -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians are starting to play better baseball in recent days. The offense has been hitting it well, but they run into a buzzsaw here in Sonny Gray. I've been really impressed with the way he has pitched all this year. Gray is extremely consistent, and that's something that most youngsters struggle with. Gray already shut down this Indians lineup once this year. The A's offense may be without Coco Crisp again here, and that hurts them a lot. Oakland's offense lacks firepower. Zach McAllister has been very good at home this year. The wind will be blowing in on a cold night in Cleveland, so the ball shouldn't fly well.

The under is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 road games vs. a right-handed pitcher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 3-0-1 in Gray's last following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in Cleveland's last 5 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 days or more. The under is 4-0-1 in McAllister's last 5 home starts. The under is 4-0 in McAllister's last 4 home starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 32-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Total DOMINATION* Alfredo Simon has pitched very well this year, but he is due for some serious regression. It started last game against Colorado for him. Simon allowed 8 hits and 5 runs in just three innings of work. Simon isn't a good starting pitcher, and right now the oddsmakers are lining him as if he is. Kyle Kendrick is a guy I like to fade a lot as well. I think he has below average stuff, and he's in a hitter's ballpark here. Both offenses should match up well versus these two pitchers. Rain could be a factor in this game, and if it is the bullpens will see more work. Both of these bullpens are terrible. I think this total should be set at 9, and this kind of line mistake is very rare. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Yordano Ventura is a name you'll want to get to know if you don't already know it. Ventura has electric stuff and is lighting up radar guns and frustrating hitters all over the league. Baltimore's lineup suffers a lot without Matt Wieters in the middle of the order. Chen starts here for the Orioles and he has really looked strong in his last few starts. Kansas City is hitting just .224 as a team against left-handed pitching this year. The wind here is expected to be blowing in at 10-15 mph on a cool day in Kansas City. 

The under is 3-0-1 in Chen's last 4 on five days of rest. The under is 7-0 in Chen's last 7 vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in Kansas City's last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in KC's last 4 following a win. The under is 3-0-1 in the Royals last 4 as a favorite. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 against a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. A 25-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Milwaukee Brewers were tripped up last night by the Pittsburgh Pirates, but I like their chances of getting back on track here. Yovani Gallardo has a great history against the Pirates. In 130 innings pitched against Pittsburgh, Gallardo has a stellar 2.63 ERA. Gallardo also has a great history with home plate umpire CB Bucknor. He has a 2.64 ERA with Bucknor behind the dish. Wandy Rodriguez starts for the Pirates here, and he isn't healthy. I suspect Rodriguez needs surgery based on the huge drop in his velocity this year. The Pirates are giving him another try here, and I don't like that idea by them. In addition, Rodriguez has a brutal 6.39 ERA at Miller Park. 

Pittsburgh is 12-50 in their last 62 games at Milwaukee. The Brewers are 10-2 in Gallardo's last 12 home starts vs. the Pirates. Pittsburgh is 0-5 in Rodriguez's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 games against a left-handed starter. A 71-15 trend here. Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Milwaukee Brewers have completely owned the Pittsburgh Pirates over the last few years. The Pirates are a team that I see backtracking from last years amazing season, and so far that has definitely been the case. Pittsburgh's lineup is weak outside of Andrew McCutchen. Francisco Liriano was the team's best pitcher last year, but he has been wildly inconsistent this year. He has an ERA above 7 at Miller Park in his career, and the Brewers are playing some good baseball right now. Wily Peralta is a guy I'm high on because of his electric stuff. He has had two great outings against Pittsburgh in his career.

The Brewers are 50-11 in their last 61 home games against Pittsburgh. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a lefty. The Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 as a road underdog. A 64-11 angle. Take Milwaukee. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Houston Astros may well be the worst team in baseball. Seeing them as a favorite is a very strange thing. It would be understandable if they had an elite pitcher on their roster, but here they have Scott Feldman pitching. Feldman is a decent pitcher, but he's not elite. He is up and down, and the Rangers just saw him a few weeks ago and struggled. I think this strong Texas offense will bounce back here. Tepesch starts for the Rangers and he was decent as a rookie last year. He has a 1.52 ERA in Triple A this year. Texas has the much better lineup and bullpen and at even money going against Houston is a very nice value. Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Over 8.5* Kevin Correia and Felix Doubront are both pitchers I like to fade normally, but in this case I'll just go with the over because I see lots of scoring opportunities for both teams. Both of these offenses are fully capable of putting up a bunch of runs, as they did in last night's game. Look for some long innings in this one. This total is set too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline VALUE* Madison Bumgarner has allowed just 2 runs and only one earned run in his last 20 innings pitched against the Atlanta Braves. Bumgarner is making a lot of batters swing and miss lately, and the Braves hitters strike out a bunch. Bumgarner is a guy who I believe is breaking out and becoming a top five pitcher in the National League. Julio Teheran has been good this year, but his peripherals tell me he is due for some regression. This is a key game between two good teams looking for the series win. I'll take the team with the better starter and better bullpen. Take the Giants here. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Bill Miller is my single favorite under umpire in the majors. Miller has a massive strike zone and he isn't shy at all about ringing anyone up. You'll likely see the batters from both sides in this game get upset with him multiple times in this game. It's get away day, and those are usually good for unders, especially with a great home plate umpire calling tons of strikes. The under is 24-4 in Miller's last 28 games behind the plate in Arizona. Brandon McCarthy has pitched great under the dome in Arizona. He has an ERA below 2.5 in his career under a dome. Doug Fister had a bad start last week but I expect a solid season from him. Chase Field's roof will be closed here, and that helps in a big way. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies are down in a big way this year. This is a team that no longer is the scary team that was a contender to win it all each year a few years ago. The Los Angeles Angels record isn't great so far this year, but they are playing very well of late. Garrett Richards was always highly touted and he is finally coming into his own. Richards is controlling all of his pitches now. A.J. Burnett has gotten very fortunate in several starts and he is due for some regression based on his peripherals. Burnett is aging and not completely healthy. Richards is an up and comer. 

The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games against a team with a losing record. They are 4-0 in Richards' last 4 interleague starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Phillies are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The Angels are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games at Philadelphia. A 28-0 angle. Take the Angels. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Arizona Diamondbacks are now 3-16 at home this year. It's rare to see a team perform pretty well on the road and be this bad at home. Arizona isn't a good team, and Bronson Arroyo is a bad fit at Chase Field. Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open as it should be on Tuesday night. Arroyo is a guy who gives up tons of long balls, and with the roof open Chase Field is a place where the ball flies extremely well. Stephen Strasburg is putting together a very nice start to the season, and he has been great in two starts against the Diamondbacks in the past.

Arizona is 1-11 in their last 12 games as a home underdog. They are 0-6 in their last 6 as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Nationals are 5-0 in Strasburg's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. A 22-1 angle. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox lineup hasn't produced the way they are capable of so far this year. Over the course of the season, I expect the numbers from this group to get much better. This is still a talented lineup that will finish near the top of the majors in runs scored. The Twins offense has been much better than expected this year, and having a healthy Joe Mauer back in the lineup now is a big help. Ricky Nolasco and Felix Doubront are both guys who are capable of giving up big innings at any time. The total is set a little too low here. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* I'm not a fan of pitchers like Ubaldo Jimenez. I don't like backing a guy who is capable of shutting down the opponent or giving up 9 runs, and he is definitely that type of guy. Jimenez has a 5.32 ERA in his career against this strong Tigers lineup. He struggles to get out the key guys in the Tigers lineup. Drew Smyly is an underrated pitcher at this stage of his career, and the Orioles are hitting just above .220 as a team against left-handed pitching this year. The Tigers have the better lineup here and I trust Smyly more than Jimenez. 

The Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite. They are 5-0 in their last 5 road games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 24-0 angle. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Seattle Mariners have King Felix on the hill Monday night. Hernandez has been absolutely dominating in the past against the Tampa Bay Rays. In fact, the Mariners have won eight straight games against the Rays when Hernandez is on the hill. Hernandez has an ERA of just above 2 in his career against Tampa Bay, and no one on the Rays roster has good career numbers against him. Cesar Ramos is a fill-in starter for the Rays, and I think he is due for some serious regression in the near future. Too big of a price for me on the moneyline, so we'll take the run line here. Take the Mariners -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit Shelby Miller well in the past. Miller has been struggling so far this year, and Miller has an ERA over 4 in his career on the road. Charlie Morton has been awful (ERA above 6) in his career against the Cardinals. St. Louis has been cold of late, but this is a great matchup for them to bust out of their slump. A total of 7.5 is far too low given the tons of questions that come with both starting pitchers in this one. I think 8.5 would have been a fair line for this game.

The over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates last 4 as a favorite. The over is 6-1-1 in the Pirates last 8 games overall. The over is 3-0-1 in the Cardinals last 4 during game three of a series. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners start Roenis Elias in this one. Elias has been a very nice surprise in this Seattle starting rotation. I'm not sure if Elias is a long-term star because his success relies largely on the deception of his delivery. Still, when a team first sees him, they often have a hard time picking up the baseball. Kansas City has been awful all year against lefties. The Royals are averaging just 2.39 runs per game against left-handed starting pitchers this year. Elias is a tough matchup for them. The Mariners offense is much improved. 

Kansas City is 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Seattle is 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are 4-0 in their last 4 home games as a -110 to -150 favorite. A 22-0 angle. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Detroit Tigers need this game to win this series against the lowly Twins. Detroit is the much better team, and I like the pitching matchup here as well. Robbie Ray is a rising star for the Tigers, and I expect big things from him in the future. Minnesota has never seen him before, and they aren't typically good against lefties. Sam Deduno is a below average major league pitcher. He has been awful against Detroit. Deduno comes into this game with a 7.48 ERA in his career against the Tigers. This Tigers offense is fully capable of busting this game open. Take Detroit -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Miami Marlins were beaten badly last night as Jose Fernandez was hit around in rare fashion by the San Diego Padres. Miami throws another very good young pitcher at this weak Padres offense on Saturday night. Nate Eovaldi has electric stuff, and he is quickly becoming a terrific number two starter for the Marlins. Eovaldi enters this game with a 2.78 ERA despite facing some very good lineups this year. Eric Stults starts for the Padres, and he appears to be past his prime. Stults is almost 35 and has lost some zip on his fastball. He has been getting hit around consistently of late, and this Marlins offense is much better this year. Huge pitching mismatch here. Lay the small price on Miami. Take the Marlins. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The San Francisco Giants are doing it with a great pitching staff again this year. The bullpen has been excellent, and the starting rotation has been high quality as well. Madison Bumgarner is a consistent pitcher, and he matches up well against the Dodgers. Bumgarner has a sparkling ERA of 1.98 in nine career games at Dodger Stadium. Paul Maholm is a middle of the road pitcher at best, and the Giants have been at their best against left-handed pitching so far this year. San Francisco is averaging 5.14 runs per game against lefties in 2014. Huge pitching advantage all the way around for the Giants here.

The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a left-handed starter. They are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 in their last 5 overall against a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter. A 22-1 angle. Take the Giants. 

*3 Star MLB Road Warrior* The Arizona Diamondbacks clearly aren't as bad as they started this season. I don't believe they are a good team, but they do now have a winning record on the road. The line movement in this game has been really interesting to me. Arizona was a significant underdog at the line open here, and the smart money has poured in on the Diamondbacks. I like Arizona too. Brandon McCarthy is a streaky pitcher who is throwing the ball exceptionally well of late. He is also up against his old team, and he has pitched well against them in his 3 starts against them since leaving Chicago. Rienzo is a shaky starter, and the Diamondbacks offense has been good in recent days. The White Sox have overachieved so far this year. Here's a good chance to against them. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies both have terrible bullpens. The Mets bullpen is ranked 24th out of 30 teams in the majors. The Phillies bullpen is ranked 29th out of 30 teams. Mejia almost never lasts past the end of the fifth or sixth inning, so the Mets bullpen will be used often here. Philadelphia's lineup has been hitting it pretty well of late. Roberto Hernandez pitched well last game, but I don't trust him and he isn't the type of pitcher that deserves to have totals set this low.

The over is 3-0-1 in the Phillies last 4 Friday games. The over is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 2-0-2 in Mejia's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-1-1 in the Phillies last 7 road games. A 14-1 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers and Colorado Rockies both have lineups that can light up the scoreboard. Importantly, both of these teams are terrific against left-handed pitching. Both teams will start left-handed pitchers in this one. Texas is hitting .288 and averaging 6.31 runs against lefties this year. Colorado is hitting .316 and averaging 5.64 runs per game against lefties. Franklin Morales is a below average starter for Colorado. Matt Harrison is a mediocre starter who is just coming back from a major injury. The Rockies lineup is on fire right now, and I don't see Harrison slowing them down. Texas is poor against right-handers, but they get a great matchup here against Morales. 

The over is 6-0 in the Rockies last 6 interleague games as an underdog. The over is 5-0-2 in the Rockies last 7 road games with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 as a road underdog. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The over is 5-0 in Morales' last 5 road starts with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 interleague games against a lefty. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rangers last 4 home games with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in Harrison's last 4 starts as a favorite. The over is 3-0-1 in Harrison's last 4 starts overall. A 43-0 angle. Take the over big! 

*4 Star MLB Runline Value* The Houston Astros kept it close against the Detroit Tigers last night, but Detroit may be the best team in baseball and Houston may be the worst. There are a lot of lopsided games when these two meet. Smyly is an underrated lefty for the Tigers. Dallas Keuchel has been decent at home for Houston, but his career ERA on the road is a ridiculous 6.01. The Tigers are great against left-handed pitchers and their offense slumbered in last night's 3-2 win. Expect a much better performance from the Tigers hitters in this one. Good price on a clear mismatch. Take Detroit -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles are both in favorable spots to score runs on Wednesday night. Cesar Ramos pitches for the Rays and he isn't a guy who can get past the fifth inning very often. Tampa Bay's bullpen ERA is 4.24, so if he exits early it gives the Orioles a good chance to score even more late. Ramos is far from dominating, and the Orioles generally hit lefties well. Tampa Bay's lineup is a bit underrated, and they have some guys who have hit Norris well in the past. This total is set awfully low, so I see plenty of value. 

The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 on turf. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 as a dog of +110 to +150. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL East. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 as a road dog of +110 to +150. The over is 4-0 in Norris' last 4 starts with a total at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 6-0 in Tampa Bay's last 6 home games vs. a right-handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite of -110 to -150. A 40-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Runline Value* The Detroit Tigers are a much much better team than the Houston Astros. Rick Porcello is also a bit underappreciated as a pitcher at this point in his career. Porcello is still young, but he is clearly getting better of late. Porcello's stuff is plenty good, and now that he is getting better with his command the improvements are pretty drastic. Brad Peacock pitches for the Astros here and he walks way too many batters. Look for the Tigers to make him pay for those free passes here. Take Detroit -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres offense is miserable. They have been the worst offense in the league this year, and it really hasn't been close. Kansas City's offense has been scuffling pretty badly of late as well. James Shields and Andrew Cashner are the aces of these two pitching staffs. With the last two games going extra innings, I expect these starters to be stretched out a bit here to save the bullpen and that should be a good thing with two extremely good starters like Shields and Cashner. Cashner is amazing at home, and Shields is a great strikeout pitcher against a Padres lineup that strikes out very often.

The under is 6-0 in Cashner's last 6 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite. The under is 5-0 in his last 3 during game 3 of a series. The under is 7-0 in Cashner's last 7 with a total set at 6.5 or lower. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 after the team scored 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 home starts. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 following a Padres loss. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a home favorite. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts with a total of 6.5 or lower. A 54-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special*  Note- Use listed pitchers here- Felix Hernandez as the starter for the Mariners. 

Felix Hernandez is slated to start game one of this doubleheader unless something changes. Hernandez has been lights out against Oakland in Oakland Coliseum the last two years. How good has he been? He has given up just one run in his last 23 innings pitched at Oakland. On the other side, Dan Straily has an ERA of 6.75 in his four career starts against the Mariners. Seattle's lineup is much improved from a year ago, and Oakland isn't hitting well at all recently. 

The Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 road games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in the last game. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL West. They are 7-1 in Felix's last 8 starts in Oakland. Oakland is 0-5 in their last 5 home games. A 42-1 angle. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Milwaukee Brewers aren't getting much respect from the oddsmakers with this line. Wily Peralta is a guy I'm very high on. I've watched Peralta's last two starts, and his stuff is absolutely electric. He has great movement on his fastball, and he has the other pitches to put guys away. Bronson Arroyo is on the downswing in his career, and I don't trust him at all. The Diamondbacks won yesterday, and the Brewers need this to win the series. Expect them to pick up the win. Take Milwaukee. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Cubs will start Edwin Jackson in this one. Jackson has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball in the last two years. He has a brutal 5.24 ERA so far in 2014. In his career, he has a 6.60 ERA against the White Sox. This White Sox lineup has been much better than expected and I expect them to get to Jackson early and often. At the same time, Hector Noesi has been plugged in as a spot starter for the White Sox. Noesi has been awful this year, and even a bad lineup like the Cubs should put up several on Noesi. The total here is set very low because the wind will be blowing in. With these two starters on the mound, I can't pass up a total set at 7 runs. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The St. Louis Cardinals are the best team in the National League in my book. They haven't played like it yet this year, but I expect big things from them in 2014. The season is still very young. Getting the Cardinals at plus money this year will likely be difficult. In this case, we're getting them at plus money against Gavin Floyd who is making his first major league start of the year. Floyd has had serious injury concerns, and I doubt he'll make it deep into this game. The Braves have lost 7 straight games, and they are finally starting to feel the pain of their injury issues. Plenty of value on the Cardinals at this price. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Detroit Tigers and the Houston Astros have the two worst bullpens in the majors this year. The Tigers have a bullpen ERA of 5.31. The Astros have a bullpen ERA of 5.74. I expect both bullpens to be in the game for several innings here, which makes me like this over. Brett Oberholtzer was only mediocre in the minors and the Tigers hit left-handed pitching very well. Look for him to struggle through this start. Robbie Ray makes his first major league start for the Tigers. Ray doesn't have dominating stuff, and I doubt he'll work deep into this game. There should be plenty of scoring chances in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The San Francisco Giants are rolling right now. This team is getting timely hitting and some excellent pitching. Last year's Giants didn't get the normal great pitching this team has been used to in the past, but the pitching staff has bounced back in a big way this year. Tim Hudson is one of the guys that has been key to that bounce back. Hudson has a 2.17 ERA this year, and he has only given up more than 2 earned runs once. The Giants bullpen is second in the majors with a stellar 1.86 ERA. Pittsburgh's great season last year was nice for their fans, but I'm convinced this team isn't the same this year. Last year's team was a bit fortunate to finish as well as they did, and without a good offense it's tough to win as much as that team did. Pittsburgh is coming back to earth right now. 

The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring at least 5 runs last game. They are 6-0 in their last 6 overall. They are 4-0 in Hudson's last 4 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a quality start. The Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. They are 0-4 in Morton's last 4 starts as a home underdog. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts overall. They are 0-7 in Morton's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 43-0 angle. Take the Giants. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jered Weaver isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Weaver has lost a bunch of velocity and he doesn't have the same ability to strike out batters that he previously had. Even in the past, the Yankees lineup has torched him. Weaver has a brutal 5.93 ERA in 13 career starts against New York. David Phelps is a spot starter here for New York, and I'm not confident in his ability to come through for the Yankees. Phelps hasn't been good in the minors, and his past history in the majors is inconsistent at best. The Angels still score runs at home, and they have two elite hitters in Trout and Pujols.

The over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 during game one of a series. The over is 3-0-1 in Phelps last 4 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in Weaver's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite. The over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 when the opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 6-0 in Weaver's last 6 starts overall. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the Yankees. 

*3 Star MLB White Sox/Cubs CASH* The Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs aren't good teams, but they are bitter rivals and this series is always interesting and heated. Jose Quintana is a middle of the road lefty and the Cubs have been pretty good against lefties this year. Jeff Samardzija has been amazing so far this year, despite the fact that his record doesn't show it. He has left with the lead several times and been victimized by bullpen collapses. The White Sox are a team I'm low on for the season overall, and I expect to find spots to fade them over the course of the year. I'm not necessarily high on the Cubs, but I like their pitching advantage here. 

The White Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. They are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL Central. The Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. the White Sox. A 16-0 angle. Take the Cubs. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Aaron Harang isn't nearly as good of a pitcher as he has looked like early on this year. Harang had sparkling numbers before his last outing in which he gave up 9 earned runs. He still has a 2.97 ERA. This is a guy that didn't have a job until a few days before the season. Shelby Miller is regressing of late. Miller is walking far too many guys, and he has been wild inside the strike zone as well. Both of these offenses have been underperforming of late, but I think they'll have plenty of scoring chances in this one. A warm night in Atlanta with the wind blowing out helps a lot. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies and New York Mets will play Sunday afternoon in perfect conditions for scoring at Coors Field. The wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph. The temperature will be in the mid 80's and the ball should be flying extremely well. Paul Schrieber is the umpire behind the dish here, and by my data he is one of the best over umpires in the business because of his tiny strike zone. He is hesitant to ring up hitters. Dillon Gee has been bad at Coors in the past. Chacin is in his first game back from a major injury.

The over is 4-0-2 in the Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 overall. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 as an underdog. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rockies last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in Chacin's last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 home starts. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two at Coors Field. A 40-1 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of Week* The Arizona Diamondbacks have won the first two games of this series. The Diamondbacks seem to be getting respect from the oddsmakers here since they are barely even an underdog. I wouldn't want to back the Diamondbacks as they are looking to complete a sweep. Wade Miley has a terrible past against the Padres (career ERA of over 5). Tyson Ross on the other hand, has been awesome against Arizona. In 23 innings, he has a 1.96 ERA against the DBacks. Ross has a career ERA of just 1.96 at Petco Park in more than 76 innings. The Padres offense is bad, but they are better against lefties than right-handed pitching. Short price on a team looking to avoid a sweep at the hands of a very bad team. Take San Diego big! 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have taken the first two games in this series and I've been on them in both of those wins. I'll back them for a third straight game here. Justin Verlander is still absolutely one of the best pitchers in baseball. Kansas City has gotten some good outings from Jason Vargas this year, but Detroit really hits lefties well and I don't like this matchup for him. Detroit is playing excellent baseball and may be the best team in the majors.

Detroit is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a lefty. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. They are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 starts. Kansas City is 0-5 in their last 5 as an underdog of +110 to +150. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the AL Central. They are 0-5 in their last 5 as an underdog overall. Detroit is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. A 45-0 angle. Take the Tigers. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value Play* The Baltimore Orioles weren't a good pick yesterday as they let me down, but I'm going back with the Orioles here. I don't trust Phil Hughes at all, and this Baltimore lineup has scorched him in the past. Hughes has an ERA above 5 in his career against the Orioles. Miguel Gonzalez has been off his game a bit this year, but in his career he has been good away from home. This Twins lineup isn't as good as they have looked early this year. Baltimore has the much better lineup. Good price here on the Orioles. Take Baltimore. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet early Sunday afternoon in the Bronx. The wind is expected to be gusting out to center field at 20 mph or so here. Day games at Yankee Stadium are very beneficial to hitters to start with, and this should be great conditions for runs. C.C. Sabathia isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and several Rays hitter have hit him very well in the past. Erik Bedard isn't a good pitcher at all at this point in his career, and this Yankees lineup is very good. New York punishes left-handed pitching. 

The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with home winning record. The over is 5-0 in Sabathia's last 5 home starts vs. the Rays. A 19-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Detroit Tigers cashed in big for me as a significant underdog last night. This Detroit Tigers team is really starting to click in recent days. The Tigers may be the best team in the majors, and they still aren't getting enough respect from the oddsmakers. The Royals are a mediocre team. I like Danny Duffy for the Royals, but the Tigers hit left-handed pitching very well. Detroit is 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter. In addition, Smyly starts for the Tigers and Kansas City has been miserable against lefties this year (averaging just over 3 runs per game against them). 

Detroit is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. They are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Royals. The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 as a dog. A 24-1 angle. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value Play* The Atlanta Braves have found a true ace in Julio Teheran. Teheran has been solid against everyone this year. He has elite stuff and he has found his control of all pitches much better in 2014. Ryan Vogelsong is a complete mess for the Giants. He managed to twirl a gem last game against Cleveland, but I don't expect the same here against a good Braves lineup. Vogelsong has a 5.40 ERA so far this year, and in two starts on the road he has an ERA of 15.19. The Giants offense is too inconsistent, and I expect the Braves to score plenty against Vogelsong. Take Atlanta -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles are a better team than the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota has been more competitive than I expected early in the year, but I still expect them to end up at or very near the bottom of the AL Central. Baltimore is a team that is capable of making some noise and possibly even getting to the postseason. Minnesota's biggest weakness is their pitching staff. Here the Twins will start Kevin Correia, who has been dreadfully bad this year. Correia comes in with a 7.33 ERA, and his ERA is over 9 at home. Chen starts for the Orioles, and his history against Minnesota is great. He has a 2.25 ERA in his career against the Twins. Baltimore clearly has the better lineup as well.

The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 as favorites. They are 4-0 in Chen's last 4 starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. The Twins are 0-5 in Correia's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-5 in Correia's last 5 starts following a Twins loss. They are 0-6 in his last 6 during game 2 of the series. They are 0-4 in his last 4 vs. the AL East. A 33-0 angle. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* This is all about price. The Detroit Tigers are arguably the best team in the American League (and maybe even baseball), and they are +140 or so against a Royals team that is merely mediocre. James Shields is clearly a better pitcher than Rick Porcello, and it won't surprise me a lot if the Tigers lose this game, but at this price I simply can't pass it up. The much better offense at a huge discounted price. Take Detroit in this one. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Ubaldo Jimenez has had some real trouble early in the year for his new team in Baltimore. Jimenez is a streaky pitcher, and until he turns it around I won't trust him at all. Ricky Nolasco is considered an ace for the Twins, which tells you how bad this pitching staff is. Nolasco has an ugly 6.67 ERA this year. Jimenez has an ERA of 6.59. Two pitchers that can't be trusted against two good lineups. The Twins offense is much better than expected, and the Orioles now have Machado back which helps a lot.

The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 road games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. right-handed pitching. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 as a road underdog. The over is 4-0-1 in the Twins last 5 home games set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 during game one of a series. A 41-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dan Straily and Clay Buchholz are both off to a shaky start to the season in 2014. Straily has been bad against good offenses, and now that Boston has gotten healthy again I consider them a good offense. Buchholz has been bad against everyone so far this year. Buchholz also has a miserable 7.90 ERA in six career starts against Oakland. The A's lineup is better than most believe. This game has the potential to see some very big innings.

The over is 5-0 in the A's last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in Straily's last 5 Friday starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total of 9 to 10.5. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total of 9 or higher. The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their last game. The over is 3-0-1 in Boston's last 4 during game one of a series. The over is 4-0 in Buchholz's last 4 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 on 5 days of rest. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 following a quality start in his last appearance. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 home starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 when the Red Sox opponent gives up 2 runs or less in their last game. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts when the Red Sox score 5 runs or more in their last game. A 52-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Yordano Ventura is a name you'll want to get to know. This guy has electric stuff and is capable of shutting down even the best of lineups. Ventura throws better than 100 mph at times, and he has very good change of pace breaking stuff. Toronto isn't very good against right-handed pitchers, and they are facing an elite one today. Drew Hutchison hasn't been good on the road in his career. Hutchison has a 4.62 ERA away from home. Kansas City has been much better at home in the last couple years. The Royals are 13-3 in their last 16 home games as a favorite. Good spot to back the home team. Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value Play* The Texas Rangers look to avoid the sweep Wednesday night at home against the Oakland Athletics. Jesse Chavez is off to a nice start this year, but I'm not convinced Chavez will be a quality starting pitcher in the long run. Chavez has a 7.16 ERA in 7 appearances against the Rangers in his career. Robbie Ross is great at home. Ross has a career ERA of just 2.68 at the Ballpark in Arlington. Oakland is hitting just .237 as a team off left-handed pitching this year. With Choo and Beltre both back in the lineup, this Rangers lineup is very good. Nice price on the home team here. Take Texas. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals aren't proving it so far this series, but I am convinced that they are a better team than the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee is without Ryan Braun, Jean Segura, and possibly Aramis Ramirez again in this one. This Milwaukee lineup is a total mess. Milwaukee has won the first two games in this series in extra innings. Shelby Miller has been dominant at home in his career (1.68 ERA), and Miller has shut down the Brewers (2.03 ERA) in his previous starts against them. I expect him to be the stopper here. The Cardinals don't want to lose any more ground, and sweeping a team as good as St. Louis is tough to do when healthy. The Brewers aren't even close to healthy. A lot of value on the Cardinals here.

St. Louis is 6-0 in Miller's last 6 starts vs. the Brewers. They are 7-1 in Miller's last 8 starts as a favorite. A 13-1 angle here. Take the Cardinals big! 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Colorado Rockies took the first game of this series last night, and I like their chances of taking game two as well. Tyler Chatwood has quietly turned into a decent pitcher for the Rockies. Chatwood has a ground ball rate of 58%, which is a very good thing at Chase Field with the roof open as it will be on Tuesday night. Chatwood has pitched well in limited action against the Diamondbacks in his career. Mike Bolsinger is pitching for the Diamondbacks, and I don't think his style fits this park well. He gave up a lot of home runs in Triple A, and I don't see him being the answer for Arizona. The Rockies have the better lineup as well.

Colorado is 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their last game. The Rockies are 4-0 in Chatwood's last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in the previous game. Arizona is 0-9 in their last 9 as a home underdog. They are 0-5 in their last 5 during game two of the series. They are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. A 27-0 angle. Take Colorado. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The St. Louis Cardinals lost in game one of this important series against the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers last night, but I like their chances of bouncing back on Tuesday. Lance Lynn has struggled on the road, but he has been great at home in his career. He also has a stellar 2.17 ERA in almost 50 innings of work against Milwaukee in his career. Kyle Lohse isn't nearly as good on the road as he is at home. The Brewers lineup will be without Ryan Braun and Jean Segura here it appears. They also may be without Aramis Ramirez who was dinged up a bit yesterday. Milwaukee's offense is really hurting right now. Look for the Cardinals to win comfortably. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jose Fernandez is absolutely amazing. His numbers at home in his short career are nothing short of extraordinary. Fernandez has a 1.07 ERA in 18 career starts at home! An ERA of 1.07 in 18 starts is just out of this world good. Fernandez shut down the Braves on the road last time out, and I see no reason to expect the Braves to have success against him here. Fernandez has a 1.29 ERA in 21 career innings against Atlanta. The Marlins are actually slightly better against left-handed pitching, and they'll face lefty Alex Wood here. Miami at home with Fernandez is tough to overlook when not laying big money.

Miami is 8-0 in their last 8 home games vs. a lefty. They are 8-0 in Fernandez's last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. They are 4-0 in his last 4 Tuesday starts. The Braves are 0-4 in Wood's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 24-0 angle. Take Miami. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Milwaukee Brewers will be without both Ryan Braun and Jean Segura today. Braun is clearly the team's best hitter, and Segura has turned into a catalyst for this offense. Without those two in the lineup, this offense isn't even close to the same. Michael Wacha is a dominating young pitcher and I like his matchup without those two guys around for the Brewers. Yovani Gallardo has been very good this year, but his career numbers against the Cardinals are miserable. In 18 starts against the Cardinals, Gallardo has a 6.49 ERA. The Brewers are a miserable 3-15 in his last 18 starts against St. Louis. Getting this kind of price on the run line is too much for me to pass up. Take the Cardinals -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Texas Rangers get Matt Harrison back for this game. Harrison was the team's Opening Day starter in 2013, but he has had a myriad of injuries and surgeries in the past year. Harrison is finally back, and he picked a great team to come back against. Seattle is a team Harrison has totally dominated throughout his career. Harrison has an amazing 0.99 ERA in his career at Safeco Field, and that is in a rather large sample size. The Mariners offense is slightly better this year, but it still isn't good. Maurer is no more than mediocre on the mound for Seattle, and Texas has an even stronger lineup with Beltre healthy again. Getting the Rangers at plus money here is a very nice value. 

Texas is 9-1 in Harrison's last 10 starts vs. the Mariners. Seattle is 0-4 in their last 4 Sunday games. They are 1-9 in Maurer's last 10 starts overall. A 22-2 angle. Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants and Cleveland Indians meet on Sunday afternoon for the series finale here. This is clearly a pitcher's park, but in an afternoon game like this one it is certainly easier to hit a home run and get some more scoring than it is in late night games in the Bay Area. The Giants are averaging 4.29 runs per game this year, and this offense is definitely better than it was a year ago. Danny Salazar isn't hitting his spots, and the Giants have some professional hitters who should be able to make him pay for those mistakes. Ryan Vogelsong pitches for the Giants and he has a 7.71 ERA this season. The Indians offense should get to him early. 

The over is 5-0 in Salazar's last 5 as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 on grass. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The over is 3-0-1 in the Giants last 4 Sunday games. The over is 5-0 in Vogelsong's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox start Jon Lester in this one, and Lester has pitched very well in his career against Toronto. Importantly, Lester has consistently thrown quality starts against this Toronto team. No one in the Blue Jays lineup has hit him well in the past. R.A. Dickey has an ERA well over 5 in his career against Boston. The Red Sox patience at the plate helps them a lot against this knuckleballer. Toronto started the season hot, but their team just isn't as good as the Red Sox. Boston has had lots of success against Toronto in the past. 

Boston is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. Toronto is 0-4 in their last 4 against the AL East. They are 0-4 in their last 4 on turf. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. They are 0-4 in Dickey's last 4 starts following a quality start. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts during game 3 of the series. They are 0-4 in his last 4 after the team scores 5 runs or more. They are 0-5 in his last 5 Sunday starts. A 41-0 angle. Take Boston. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play 100% CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks have won three games in a row. I don't expect them to make it four. Arizona isn't a good team. Philadelphia isn't particularly good this year either, but the Phillies have one of the best starting pitchers in baseball starting for them in this one. Cliff Lee is just a tremendous pitcher who limits walks and comes up with big outs consistently when runners are on base. I love the way he pitches deep into the game, which will help us stay away from the Phillies bullpen. Bronson Arroyo starts for Arizona, and he is a bad fit at Chase Field. The roof will be open here, and the ball flies extremely well with the roof open. Arroyo has been among the league leaders in home runs allowed the past few years, and he has been getting torched so far this year. He allowed 9 runs in his first home start this year. 

Arizona is 0-6 in their last 6 Saturday games. They are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. They are 0-8 in their last 8 as a home underdog. They are 0-4 in their last 4 during game two of a series. The DBacks are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Phillies big here! 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* The Cincinnati Reds are a much better team than they showed early on this year. They narrowly lost last night's game even though they outhit the Braves. Mike Leake has been spectacular against the Braves in the past. He has an ERA of just above 2 in his career against Atlanta. David Hale has been thrown into the Braves rotation because of Atlanta's injury problems and he will likely have a hard time against a pretty solid Reds lineup. Leake is an underrated pitcher at this stage of his career, and I see him as a guy that can be backed as an underdog. Nice price on the Reds here. Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Diego Padres have a terrific ace in Andrew Cashner. Cashner is a guy who is going to be much better known by the average fan by the end of this year. Cashner has elite stuff, and he has shown he can shut down any lineup. He threw a complete game shutout against Detroit earlier this year. The Nationals offense is having some issues of late, and Bryce Harper is questionable for this one after leaving last night's game with an injury. Tanner Roark has pitched well in his first few starts in the majors, but he is due for some regression and he doesn't have the same quality of stuff as Cashner. At even money, I'll take the team with the much better starting pitcher. Take San Diego. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers aren't getting much respect from the oddsmakers with this line. Texas has played a weak schedule so far, but the Seattle Mariners aren't a good team. Robbie Ross has been super so far this year, and his track record against the Mariners is excellent. Ross has a stellar 1.29 ERA in 21 innings against the Mariners. This Mariners offense has been slumping of late as well. Roenis Elias has been very good so far this year, but this guy is definitely due for regression. Elias was a mediocre pitcher in AA and has jumped to the majors and been very good. The Rangers saw him recently, and since Elias relies heavily on deception I expect Texas to hit him much better this time around.

Texas is 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite. Seattle is 0-5 in their last 5 as an underdog. They are 0-5 in their last 5 following a win. They are 0-5 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. A 24-0 angle. Take Texas. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open. The weather conditions tomorrow night should be perfect for hitters. The temperature will be in the 80's with wind blowing out at about 15 mph. You won't find better conditions than that. Hernandez is regressing the last couple years, and at this point I consider him one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Collmenter gives up far too many homers, and that isn't a good thing for his chances when the roof is open here. Both of these teams have offenses that are very capable of scoring several runs in this situation. Additionally, both bullpens are pretty weak so there will be chances late in the game too.

The over is 4-0-1 in the Phillies last 5 during game one of the series. The over is 4-0 in Collmenter's last 4 vs. the NL East. The over is 5-1 in Arizona's last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. A 13-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The New York Yankees offense is coming alive of late. Jacoby Ellsbury is a great fit for this team, and the Yankees have been at their best against left-handed pitching so far this season. With the lineup they have, I expect that to continue. This team is fully capable of hitting left-handers extremely well. C.J. Wilson has been pretty good in the past at Yankee Stadium, but he's lost some zip on his fastball and he isn't the same pitcher he was a couple years ago. Hiroki Kuroda has been great in his career at home, and the Angels haven't hit him well in the past. New York's lineup isn't getting the kind of respect they deserve from the oddsmakers just yet. 

The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite. They are 6-0 in their last six during game one of the series. They are 4-0 in their last 4 home games. They are 6-1 in Kuroda's last 7 starts as a home favorite. A 21-1 angle. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Kyle Kendrick starts for the Phillies here, and I've never been a fan of his. Kendrick can get blown up at any time, and he has been beaten up badly many times by this Dodgers team. He has allowed 21 earned runs in 22 and 2/3 innings pitched against the Dodgers. With Carl Crawford back and healthy, this Dodgers lineup is terrific. Dan Haren isn't a bad pitcher, but he's no longer a shutdown type of pitcher. The Phillies offense has several guys who have hit him well in the past. Mike DiMuro is a solid umpire to have behind the dish when playing an over. This number is set too low and we are getting plus money. Good value here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox will play the final game of a four game series on Thursday afternoon. Jose Quintana will take the mound for Chicago, and he has been great against Detroit in his career thus far. Quintana has a 2.70 ERA in his four career starts against this very good Tigers lineup. Max Scherzer will start for the Tigers, and he was the best pitcher in the AL last year. Scherzer is a strikeout pitcher, and the White Sox have a lot of free swingers. Dan Iassogna is behind the plate here, and I rate him as a decent under umpire which helps. In addition, this is getaway day for these teams and there may be some stars missing from the lineups.

The under is 4-0 in Quintana's last 4 during game four of a series. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in Scherzer's last 6 starts as a favorite. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite of -151 to -200. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts following a quality start. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts overall. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians and the Kansas City Royals meet in a very early game on Thursday afternoon. This one gets underway just after noon eastern time. This is a classic getaway day spot for both teams. Cleveland leaves for San Francisco after this game and the Royals leave for Baltimore. Cool weather and a breeze blowing in from center field should help as well. Bruce Chen was great against the Indians last year, and he has an ERA of 2.7 at Cleveland in his career. Kluber has been shaky early in the year, but he is up and coming pitcher with a high upside. Expect several key players to be missing from the lineups here.

The under is 5-0-1 in the Royals last 6 games as a +110 to +150 road underdog. The under is 5-0 in the Indians last 5 home games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 5-0 in home plate umpire Greg Gibson's last 5 games behind the plate. The under is 4-1 in Chen's last 5 starts in Cleveland. A 19-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Chicago White Sox lead the majors in runs scored this year. Chicago's offense has received a major boost from newcomers like Abreu and Simien. I'm not sure they can keep up this kind of production, but I do expect the White Sox to hit left-handers well this year with their right-hander heavy offense. Detroit's Drew Smyly has had trouble getting the White Sox out in the past, and this White Sox offense is clearly better than last year's version. Andre Rienzo has been no better than mediocre in Triple A, and I see no reason to expect him to be a good big leaguer. The Tigers offense will score a lot of runs this year. This total is set too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Washington Nationals have dropped the first two games of this series. Washington is a team I'm very high on, and in the end I do believe this Nationals team is going to have a bunch of wins this year. They are a bit dinged up right now, but they have their best pitcher going in this one. Strasburg gets the most attention, but Gio Gonzalez has consistently been their best starter the last two seasons. Gonzalez has an ERA under 2 in his career against the Angels. Jered Weaver has been an ace for a long time, but I'm worried about his huge drop in velocity. Weaver isn't a bad pitcher now, but he isn't in the same category as Gonzalez at this point. The Nationals bullpen is much better than the Angels.

Washington is 8-1 in Gonzalez's last 9 starts on Wednesday. They are 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games with home plate umpire Paul Emmel behind the dish. A 17-2 angle here. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Aaron Harang has been brilliant so far this year for the Braves. Harang is a big reason why the Braves are at the top of the division this year. He was signed late after the team lost several pitchers to injuries. He has performed far better than any Braves fan could have ever hoped. Harang pitched a no-hitter through seven innings last time out. He faces a weak Miami lineup in this one. Nate Eovaldi has an ERA just above 2 in his career against Atlanta. Eovaldi is a young starter who I believe will turn into a very good pitcher in the next couple years. It's getaway day here and with the early start I expect some top hitters to get the day off here. 

The under is 7-0-1 in Eovaldi's last 8 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in Atlanta's last 5 Wednesday games. The under is 2-0-2 in Eovaldi's last 4 starts in Atlanta. The under is 3-0-2 in his last 5 starts against Atlanta overall. A 26-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants have been slumping on offense of late. Franklin Morales hasn't proven himself as a starter in the majors, and I'll look to fade him when given the chance this year. The Giants offense should have more scoring opportunities in this one against Morales. Madison Bumgarner is on the mound for the Giants, and he has been great against Colorado in his career. The Giants are even 5-2 in his last 7 starts at Coors Field. Michael Cuddyer is one of the Rockies most consistent hitters, and he went on the DL yesterday. The Giants have a significant edge in the bullpen and in the starting pitching in this matchup.

The Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 road starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a team loss in the previous game. The Rockies are 0-4 in Morales' last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games against a left-handed starting pitcher. A 17-0 angle. Take the Giants. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Atlanta Braves have a tough task ahead of them here as they go up against Jose Fernandez. Fernandez is one of my favorite pitchers in the league because of his amazing stuff, and it's hard to go against him. Still, it must be pointed out that he has a career ERA of 4.00 on the road. Atlanta is a very good team, and Fernandez is backed by a Marlins team that will lose a lot of games. Also, don't discount how good of a pitcher Alex Wood is. The Braves have found a star pitcher in Wood. He has been on point all season this year. Atlanta has the much better bullpen and the much better lineup. 

The Marlins are 0-8 on the road this year. Miami is 1-8 in Fernandez's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 16-1 angle. Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* The Cleveland Indians will start Danny Salazar in this one. Salazar looked great late last year, but he has hit a major speed bump so far this year. Salazar's control has been shaky and opposing teams are making him pay. Kansas City's lineup is better than they have shown thus far this year, and they should get plenty of scoring chances here. James Shields is a consistently good pitcher. He has a solid career against the Indians. His last three starts against Cleveland have been very good. The Royals have won 4 of his last 5 starts against Cleveland. Big pitching edge for the Royals here. Kansas City should be favored here. Take the Royals. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Oakland is a very good team on their home field. The Athletics win with small ball, and that has proven to be extremely effective at home for this team. Texas is a good team with an elite pitcher going in Yu Darvish here, but Darvish hasn't pitched well against Oakland in his career. In two starts at Oakland, he has an ERA over 10. That's a small sample size, but in his entire career he has an ERA over 4 against Oakland. That's a high number for a guy like Darvish. Dan Straily has the stuff to be an ace, and he has a 3.3 ERA against the Rangers. In a game like this, getting +1.5 is great because it clearly has the potential to be a low scoring game (look at the posted total here at just 6.5).  I'm not normally a big fan of +1.5 runline plays, but I like this one. 

The Rangers are 0-6 in Darvish's last 6 starts vs. Oakland. They are 0-4 in their last 4 games against Oakland. Oakland is 5-0 in their last 5 against a right-hander. The A's are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. the AL West. A 22-1 angle on the ML, and we're getting +1.5. Take Oakland. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Milwaukee Brewers have been the biggest surprise in baseball so far this year. Their pitching staff has proven to be much better than most expected. Wily Peralta showed glimpses of brilliance late last year, and his season has started very well this year. Peralta is getting a lot of ground ball outs, and he is controlling his pitches much better than he has in the past. Andrew Cashner is a true budding superstar on the mound for the Padres. He has been absolutely dealing of late. This is a guy who is capable of shutting down any lineup he faces. He one-hit the Tigers in a CG shutout earlier this year. 

The under is 3-0-1 in the Padres last 4 vs. a righty. The under is 4-0 in Cashner's last 4 Monday starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 following a quality start. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a road underdog. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 when the team's opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in the Brewers last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 games during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in his lats 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 60-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals are probably the best team in the National League this year. St. Louis has a terrific lineup and an amazing roster full of talented young starters. Their bullpen depth is better this year than it was a year ago. The New York Mets have a bunch of flaws. Lyons is a solid lefty for the Cardinals and the Mets are 3-15 in their last 18 games against lefties. The Mets are also 6-24 in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Too short of a price on the Cardinals for me to pass this one up. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Detroit Tigers have owned the Chicago White Sox in the past couple seasons. Even more importantly, they have blasted John Danks in the past. Danks comes into this one with a brutal 6.41 ERA in his seven starts at Comerica Park. Detroit's lineup is very good, especially in the middle of the order. Danks allows a lot of baserunners and this lineup will make him pay for that. Anibal Sanchez is consistent starter who gives the Tigers a good outing almost every time he takes the mound. I see a major mismatch here. Take Detroit -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The San Diego Padres will go for the sweep of the San Francisco Giants on Sunday afternoon. San Francisco's Tim Lincecum isn't even close to the same pitcher he was a few years ago, but this Padres team has still been unable to figure out how to hit off Lincecum. In fact, Lincecum pitched a no-hitter last year at Petco Park against the Padres. Robbie Erlin has the potential to be a good pitcher, but he is too inconsistent right now. The Giants are a proud team and they look to avoid the sweep here. Lincecum should be the stopper. The Giants are 6-2 in Lincecum's last 8 starts at San Diego. Take the Giants. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cincinnati Reds have owned the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field of late. In their last 15 games at Wrigley, the Reds have lost just twice (and one of those was yesterday). Homer Bailey has started this season out pitching poorly, but if there is one place he loves to pitch it is Wrigley Field. Bailey has an ERA under 3 in his career at Wrigley. Carlos Villanueva has been mediocre his entire career, and the Cubs don't have nearly as good of a lineup as the Reds. Cincinnati has been down early this year, but this isn't a bad baseball team. This price is just too short on the Reds.

Cincinnati is 4-0 in their last 4 games during game 3 of a series. The Reds are 4-0 in Bailey's last 4 as a road favorite. They are 5-0 in Bailey's last 5 starts at Wrigley. They are 10-1 in his last 11 starts against the Cubs overall. A 23-1 angle. Take the Reds.