Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants pitching staff has been great lately. Jeff Samardzija gets the start for the Giants in this one, and he has been throwing the ball extremely well. Samardzija was sharp in his last outing at Chase Field in Arizona, and this time around he'll be in San Diego at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. Samardzija is getting ahead of batters at a great rate lately, and his fastball has been working very well.

James Shields has a great 2.53 ERA in his career against San Francisco. Shields is a guy who uses the park to his advantage very well, and he can usually pitch pretty deep into a game. 

The Padres offense is one of the worst in baseball, and the Giants offense has been inconsistent at best of late. A total of 7 isn't that low in a game played at PetCo Park. 

The under is 9-0 in the Giants last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 following a win. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. the NL West. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in Samardzija's last 5 road starts. The under is 6-0 in Shields' last 6 starts vs. the NL West. A 64-0 angle. Take the under.

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Jon Gray is still an underrated pitcher for the Colorado Rockies. It may be tough for him to put up good numbers at Coors Field, but he has already been doing it on the road. Gray has a career 2.18 ERA on the road, and a 1.38 ERA in two road starts this year. He has dominating stuff, and he is getting better with pitch sequencing as time goes by. 

Michael Wacha has been a great pitcher at home throughout his career with the Cardinals. The Rockies lineup is still solid, but it is far less imposing than it was a couple years ago. Busch Stadium is a good park for pitchers, and Wacha does a great job utilizing that to his benefit.

The Rockies bullpen is improved and the Cardinals bullpen is very good. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Cleveland Indians and Cincinnati Reds square off one more time in this intrastate battle. Cleveland has won the first three games this week, and they look to pull off a sweep here. 

Josh Tomlin has a solid ERA so far this year, but his advanced statistics suggest he has been a bit lucky. Opponents batting average on balls in play is only .250. While I don't think Tomlin is a bad pitcher, I do believe he is a little worse than he has shown so far this year. 

Tim Adleman is a guy who was thrown into the starting rotation faster than anyone expected in Cincinnati, because everyone has been getting injured for the Reds. Adleman hasn't pitched badly in his first three starts, but he has only thrown 16 innings in 3 starts. Adleman only made 3 starts in Triple A before getting jumped up to the bigs. He is a candidate for regression as he has left 84.2% of runners on base this year. 

The Reds bullpen is historically bad, and with Adleman not pitching deep into the game, that plays a big role in why I like this selection. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the Indians last 5 following a win. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The over is 7-0 in Tomlin's last 7 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The over is 8-0 in Tomlin's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 41-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees offense has finally started showing signs of life after underachieving for a very long time this year. Jacoby Ellsbury is back in the lineup, and he is key to their success. Arizona's offense is strong at home, and the Diamondbacks still have one of the best hitters in the majors in Paul Goldschmitt.

Chase Field's roof is expected to be open for this one. The roof open makes almost a full run of difference in the expected run scoring according to my database. The ball flies much better with the roof open. 

Shelby Miller gets the ball for the Diamondbacks and he has more walks than strikeouts this year. Miller has zero confidence now, and the Yankees are completely capable of putting up a big inning or two against him.

Nate Eovaldi is very inconsistent and he has trouble with the home run ball, which is bad with the roof open here in Phoenix.

The over is 5-0 in Eovaldi's last 5 interleague starts. The over is 3-1-1 in Miller's last 5 home starts. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds bullpen is the worst bullpen in the major leagues in dozens of years. There is no one down there to count on, and as a unit they have a ridiculously bad 6.46 ERA. That's more than a full run worse than the second worst bullpen in baseball.

Brandon Finnegan typically doesn't pitch deep into the game because he struggles with control issues. The Indians are likely to get several innings of chances to score on the Reds bullpen. Cleveland just scored 15 and 13 runs on the Reds the last two days. They probably won't do that again, but I think they can score several here. 

Mike Clevinger makes his first big league start for the Indians. Clevinger isn't a highly prized prospect, and his stuff is only mediocre. The Reds should get chances to score on him throughout this one.

Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is a solid over umpire with a small strike zone.

The over is 3-0-1 in the Indians last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0-1 in Finnegan's last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 15-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* I'm not normally a fan of laying this much juice on the runline, but everything adds up to this being a strong play. 

Clayton Kershaw struggled a bit early in his career against the Angels, but last year he had two starts against them and had an ERA of 0.60. This Angels lineup isn't very good anymore. Mike Trout doesn't have enough help.

The Dodgers lineup has underachieved so far this year. Jered Weaver could be just the type of guy they need to face to get things going. Weaver has been awful this year. He was bad last year, and his velocity is down even more this year and his ERA is even higher. Weaver will be a guy I look to fade this year, especially on the road. While he has good numbers against the Dodgers, none of those starts came in the past three years. He is a much different pitcher now than he was 4 years ago. 

Kershaw's in great form now, and I expect the Dodgers to win comfortably. Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* This one got rained out on Monday. I still like it on Tuesday.

The Boston Red Sox have been the best hitting team in the majors so far this year, and they are much better against right handed pitching than lefties.

Boston is averaging a whopping 6.03 runs per game on the year. The Red Sox have scored at least 6 runs in their last seven games. In five of those seven games, they have scored at least 10 runs. That's incredible success on offense. There's no way they can keep that up long-term, but baseball is a game of streaks and until this team cools off I'd rather back them than play against them.

Another big reason for this play is the form of Yordano Ventura. Ventura has an ERA of 4.62 on the year, but advanced statistics suggest he has been fortunate and his ERA should be north of 5.

The Kansas City offense has really struggled this year. Only Eric Hosmer has been reliable of late on offense. Rick Porcello's advanced numbers are the best of his career so far, and it's certainly possible he is improving since he is still only 27 years old.

The Royals are 0-7 in their last 7 following a win. They are 0-5 in their last 5 Monday games. Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. A 21-0 angle. Take Boston.  

*4 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Chicago Cubs go up against Chase Anderson and the Milwaukee Brewers here. Anderson has some potential, but he has no confidence right now and he is in terrible form. 

Anderson has allowed 6 runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. This Cubs lineup will be the best lineup he has faced all year. Anderson is struggling with his command, and this Cubs lineup is great at working the count and getting bases on balls.

Kyle Hendricks is an underrated starter. Hendricks is very solid to start with, and he has a great track record against the Brewers. In fact, he has a tremendous 1.49 ERA in seven career starts against them. Even more impressive is his 0.49 ERA in three starts at Miller Park.

The Milwaukee bullpen is one of the worst in the majors, while the Cubs bullpen is excellent. Likewise, the Cubs have a great defense while the Brewers defense isn't good at all.

The Cubs aren't a fluke, and this is a mismatch all the way around. Take Chicago -1.5.

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have scored 6 and 10 runs in their last two games. It was only a matter of time until the Tigers offense got going, and I think they should be able to keep it going against Phil Hughes tonight.

Detroit's lineup collectively has a .315 average against Hughes, and Hughes has struggled badly so far this year. I don't expect him to have much success slowing down this Tigers offense tonight.

On the other side, Mike Pelfrey is terrible, and this Twins lineup is showing signs of heating up as well. Minnesota has scored at least 5 runs in each of their last four games. Pelfrey is the type of guy who always puts people on base, so the Twins will have their chances again here.

The over is 6-0-2 in the Twins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 7-0 in the Tigers last 7 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 3-0-1 in Hughes' last 4 starts vs. Detroit. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Max Scherzer is a tremendous pitcher, but he has been inconsistent this year. It's going to be tough to be at his best following a 20 strikeout game where he threw more pitchers than he is accustomed to throwing. This is a tough spot for him against a good Mets team and a tremendous young ace in Noah Syndergaard.

While most people realize Syndergaard is very good, I still believe he is being underrated by many people including the oddsmakers. Syndergaard has amazing command of his pitches for being this young, and he is a gamer out on the mound. I love the way he competes. 

Syndergaard has been at his best in the past when he faces good opponents. He faces the Mets primary competition in the NL East tonight. I think Syndergaard puts up a dominating performance as the Mets win. Take New York. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels have been hitting the ball better in this series so far, but I don't expect it to continue here. This Angels lineup is extremely weak. Mike Trout is a star and Calhoun and Pujols are solid, but outside of that this Angels order is very weak. The depth of this lineup is among the worst in baseball.

Felix Hernandez isn't quite what he was in the past, but he still has good stuff, and he is pitching at home where he is tremendous. Hernandez has a sparkling 1.43 ERA in his last 12 starts vs. the Angels as well, so he has dominated this team.

Hector Santiago has improved a lot in the past couple years, and I like his chances of slowing down Seattle here.

Mark Ripperger is one of the best under umpires in the business. He will give both pitchers the corners and we should see plenty of strikeouts. The under is 8-1-1 in his last 10 games behind home plate. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* These two starters are the primary reason for the over play here. Cesar Vargas isn't a highly touted guy, and he's been really bad in his first couple starts on the road. Milwaukee's offense has been crushing the baseball in the last few games. 

Zach Davies has been consistently bad this year. The over is 4-1 in his last 5 starts. Davies is walking almost exactly as many guys as he is striking out right now, and that's a terrible sign. The Padres offense isn't good, but they have been better in recent days and I think they score several here.

Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom 6 or 8 in the league, so late runs shouldn't come as a surprise in this one either. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees start Masahiro Tanaka in this one. Tanaka is coming off a rare bad outing last game. Tanaka had allowed 2 earned runs or less in seven straight starts before giving up 6 runs against Kansas City last start. I don't expect his struggles to continue here. 

The White Sox offense is worse than league average. Chicago is a better team this year, but they are due for some regression after quite a few fortunate close wins early in the season. 

Miguel Gonzalez starts for the White Sox, and he isn't good. Gonzalez has peripherals that suggest he should have about a 5 ERA on a consistent basis, and that's what his ERA is right now. The Yankees expect Jacoby Ellsbury back in the lineup here, and with Chase Headley and Carlos Beltran hitting the ball better of late, this lineup should be much more potent.

The White Sox bullpen is good, but it doesn't compare to the Yankees bullpen. I don't expect this one to be close. Take New York -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants have played two straight games that have finished under the total despite the roof being open at Chase Field. While both of those games were low scoring, the final scores weren't quite indicative of how many scoring chances there were. 

Both days there were a bunch of guys left on base by both teams, and on Saturday there were 3 balls hit off the wall that were nearly home runs. 

Jake Peavy and Patrick Corbin are both having problems right now. Peavy just isn't good anymore. He is too old and he's lost his stuff. His fastball is much slower and his walk rate is the highest of his career right now. Corbin has pitched four times with the roof open at Chase Field and he has a 6.75 ERA in those games. 

The roof is slated to be open on Saturday with temperatures of 98 degrees and winds blowing out at 15 mph. That's perfect conditions for the ball to fly very well. Both teams should plate several runs in this one. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays have several important advantages in this game. First, Marco Estrada is a better pitcher than Colby Lewis. Second, the Blue Jays clearly have the more potent offense. Third, the Jays bullpen is much better than the Rangers bullpen.

Colby Lewis is pure fade material at home for me. Lewis has a 3.20 ERA on the year, but his FIP is 5.14. This suggests he has had some really good luck thus far and Toronto is the type of team who can change that around pretty quickly.

R.A. Dickey shut down Texas yesterday, and for some teams it can be tough to hit a regular pitcher the day after facing a knuckleballer.

Estrada has a stellar 1.50 ERA in three career starts vs. Texas. Even more impressive is the fact that he has a 1.50 ERA in two starts in Texas, which is tough on pitchers. 

Lewis has an ERA above 5 in the past two years at home.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star MLB Saturday Night KNOCKOUT* I had the over in last night's Tigers/Orioles game, and that play failed badly as the final finished 1-0. I don't think that's going to happen again here. In the matchup last night between Tillman and Verlander there were two pitchers capable of throwing great games on certain occasions. Anibal Sanchez and Mike Wright do not seem to fit that mold right now.

Anibal Sanchez has zero confidence right now and his mechanics are off. Sanchez has a 5.89 ERA, and it isn't because of bad luck. Sanchez just hasn't been good. He is walking 5.4 batters per nine innings which is easily a career high. He's become a guy who gives up a lot of homers the last couple years, and this Orioles lineup definitely has some great home run hitters.

Mike Wright hasn't proven himself in the big leagues yet. While it's possible he will end up being a good pitcher, I don't think he is ready yet. Wright doesn't miss enough bats.

These are two great offenses and with these guys on the mound, I expect to see a lot of runs. 

The over is 18-6-3 in Sanchez's last 27 starts. The over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two in Baltimore. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense is scoring almost 5 runs per game at home this year. San Francisco's offense is always much better away from home, since they play in such a strong pitcher's park.

Chase Field is a tremendous park for overs with the roof open in the warm weather. The roof is slated to be open for this one with a game time temperature of 99 degrees. The ball should be flying extremely well here.

Tripp Gibson is the umpire here, and my database ranks him in the top 25% of over umpires in the majors. 

Jeff Samardzija has an ERA above 5 when pitching in Arizona and Shelby Miller has been a mess all year. Miller is walking way too many people, and the Giants have the hitters to make him pay for his mistakes. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The San Francisco Giants send Jeff Samardzija to the mound for this one. Samardzija comes into this game in great form. He has been very sharp in his last few outings. 

Samardzija has a career ERA of 2.51 in May. While this isn't something I weight very heavily, it is true that he is a better first half of the year pitcher by a wide margin in his career.

Shelby Miller is having all sorts of mechanical problems and some speculate he may be injured. There are warning signs all over the place on Miller. He has walked 6.44 batters per 9 innings this year, which is worse than any other starter in the majors. He has fewer strikeouts than walks on the season.

Miller is having severe problems with the long ball as well. Chase Field's roof will be open for this game, and the Giants have plenty of guys capable of taking him deep. Miller ranks very close to the bottom of the league so far this year in swinging strike percentages. Basically, he just isn't getting many guys to swing and miss. All of his peripherals suggest this poor start is no fluke, he has just been very bad.

The Giants have the better lineup, the slightly better defense, the slightly better bullpen, and the much better starting pitcher.

San Francisco was swept at home by Arizona in April in a four game series, and I have no doubt that revenge will be on their minds throughout this series.

Take San Francisco big. MLB TOP Play of the Week  

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays both have bad lineups. These are two offenses that I expect to see scuffle frequently throughout the course of the season. 

While Tampa Bay is better against lefties than righties, Rich Hill has really impressed me so far this year. Hill hasn't given up more than 4 hits in any of his last five starts. The Rays are likely to have a tough time stringing together hits.

Jake Odorizzi is a guy I'm high on right now. Odorizzi has always been good at home, and now he is maturing into a complete pitcher. He is good at keeping the ball down and avoiding the big innings.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The Washington Nationals have Gio Gonzalez on the hill here. Gonzalez has been very solid so far this year, and he is a guy that has proven to be pretty consistent over the years. Gonzalez has a 2.38 ERA against Miami in 10 career starts.

Tom Koehler starts for the Marlins and he has been awful on the road his whole career. Koehler has been really bad at Washington. In his career, he has a 5.60 ERA in six starts at Washington. There's no reason to expect him to be any better in this start.

Washington lost four straight at Chicago, but they got back on track against the Tigers at home. This is about the most I'll ever lay on a moneyline, but I think this price should be around -180 or -190.

The Nats are 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 home starts vs. the Marlins. The Marlins are 0-4 in Koehler's last 4 road starts against Washington. The Nationals are 9-1 in Gonzalez's last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 17-1 angle. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Baltimore Orioles rank second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Detroit Tigers rank 12th. 

Baltimore's offense is going to score a lot of runs this year. The Orioles have power hitters and good on base percentage guys and that's a nice combination to have. Detroit hasn't hit as well as expected so far this year, but it is only a matter of time.

Justin Verlander has been inconsistent this year, and his best days are clearly behind him. Chris Tillman is having a great start to the season, but I don't see him keeping up this kind of pace. Tillman just doesn't have good enough stuff. 

With these two offenses, I'll gladly take the over at this low number. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The San Francisco Giants have been a good road team the last few years. San Francisco is 24-9 in their last 33 games in Arizona. 

At this point, I have Johnny Cueto and Zack Greinke rated about evenly. There is no doubt the Giants have the better bullpen, and I believe the Giants have the better offense as well. The Giants offense has slumped in the past at home, and they have often broke out in a a big way on the road. So far this year, the Giants offense has been near the top of the majors in run production on the road. Chase Field is a great hitter's park, and I like their chances of coming out of the slump in this trip.

Zack Greinke is better than his numbers so far would suggest, but I do believe he will finish with much worse numbers than last year. The Diamondbacks are 5-12 at home so far this year.

Finally, the Arizona Diamondbacks swept San Francisco on 4 straight games in San Francisco earlier this year. The Giants are a proud team and the better overall team. I expect them to get some revenge and I like this price. Take San Francisco. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The New York Mets start Noah Syndergaard in this one, and I rank him as one of the best pitchers in baseball now. This guy has amazing stuff, and he misses bats about as well as anyone in the majors. He is averaging more than 12 strikeouts per 9 innings which is truly tremendous.

Kenta Maeda has good stuff, but he has been a bit fortunate so far this year. I expect him to have a good season, but he isn't on the same level as Syndergaard. The Mets are also a better offense against right handed pitchers than the Dodgers are so far this year.

The Dodgers are 2-7 in their last 9 home games. The Mets are 39-17 in their last 56 road games. 

Syndergaard shut down the Dodgers in LA in the playoffs last year. I think he does the same here. Take the New York Mets. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* This is a matchup two strong pitchers, and these are two offenses that are rather inconsistent. At times this year both the Mets and the Dodgers have looked good on offense, but at other times these offenses have been terrible. They'll have tough challenges in this one.

Noah Syndergaard is one of the top ten pitchers in baseball without any question. He is striking out 12.5 batters per nine innings which is great stuff. Syndergaard isn't going to back down from a challenge either. He pitched great at Dodger Stadium in the playoffs last year. The Mets bullpen is one of the top three in the majors also.

Kenta Maeda has been great so far this year, and I expect the Mets to struggle for a while against him with his deceptive delivery. 

The under is 4-0-1 in the Dodgers last 5 games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 8-0-1 in Mark Ripperger's last 9 games as the home plate umpire. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates are a better team than the Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati got a close win last night, and I like Pittsburgh's chances of getting them back tonight.

Alfredo Simon is definitely of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Simon threw his best game of the year so far in his last outing against the Brewers. I don't expect a repeat performance. The Pirates hitters have a solid on base percentage of .349 against Simon. Pittsburgh has a top five offense against right-handed pitchers, and Simon is one of the worst they'll face all year.

Juan Nicasio isn't really the reason I made this pick, but he hasn't been bad for Pittsburgh. He's striking out 9.19 batters per 9 innings, which is a pretty good number. The Reds offense isn't very good, and they definitely have plenty of guys who strike out a lot.

Also note that with yesterday's game being postponed, the Pirates best relievers are now ready to pitch in this game, while the Reds bullpen is just terrible all around.

The Reds are 17-43 in their last 60 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 2-5 in Simon's last 7 start following a quality start in his last appearance. Take Pittsburgh.  

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Tampa Bay Rays offense is awful against right handed pitching. Taijuan Walker has the stuff to have a breakout season for the Mariners, and he's off to a great start. Tampa Bay is able to put up runs against lefties, but against quality right-handers this Rays team is often shut down.

Chris Archer isn't off to a great start this year, but he has shown signs of coming into form of late. Archer has tremendous stuff, and I believe in him long term. The Mariners aren't a great hitting team, and Archer definitely has the ability to throw a gem. Archer has a great 2.99 ERA in day games in his career.

An under umpire and get away day are good factors too. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays offense is going to break out at some point this year, but Madison Bumgarner is a really tough guy to do it against. Bumgarner will want to play the role of stopper here as the Giants have been skidding lately. He has proven very good in this role in the past.

Marcus Stroman has quality stuff, and he has an ERA (3.08) more than half a run lower during day games in his career than night games. With this being a day game after a night game and get away day I do expect some top players to be out of the lineup in this one. 

Tony Randazzo is the umpire here, and he has been on a nice 10-1 run to the under in his last 11 games behind the plate. His big strike zone should help both pitchers a lot.

The under is 10-0-1 in the Blue Jays last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0-2 in the Blue Jays last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 interleague games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the NL West. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in Stroman's last 4 starts after the team allowed 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague home games. The under is 4-0-1 in Bumgarner's last 5 interleague starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 50-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Chicago White Sox aren't as good as their record would indicate. They are definitely much better than they were a year ago, but they are due for some regression as a team. No one is more due for regression than Mat Latos, who is stranding runners on base at an almost 90% clip. That isn't even close to sustainable. 

Cole Hamels has been money in Texas. The Rangers are 14-2 in his last 16 starts. Hamels is a guy who usually goes deep into the game, and that should help save the Rangers bullpen here. The White Sox are only mediocre offensively against lefties, and Hamels is a good one.

I look for Texas to get to Mat Latos here. Take Texas in this one. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Matt Cain has been a great fade at home of late, and I think this Toronto offense is due to breakout soon. It could easily come against a guy like Cain, who doesn't have the high end stuff he had in the past. The Giants are 7-19 in Cain's last 26 home starts. 

J.A. Happ isn't a great pitcher, but he has been giving this team solid innings, and he gives them a very clear pitching edge over Matt Cain in his current form. 

The Blue Jays are 6-0 in Happ's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. I like Toronto in this one and believe this is a good value on the Jays. Take Toronto. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* The Tampa Bay Rays have a very underrated starter in Drew Smyly. Smyly is striking out guys at an extremely impressive rate. He is striking out 10.66 batters per 9 innings, which is extremely impressive since it almost matches Clayton Kershaw's strikeout rate per 9 innings so far this year. 

Tampa Bay's offense isn't any good against right handed pitching, but they are a top ten offense against left-handed pitchers. Wade Miley isn't a bad pitcher, but he doesn't miss many bats. The Rays have some nice power bats against lefties, and Miley is giving up the home run ball more often so far this year.

Seattle has a .182 average against Smyly. Tampa Bay is priced at a nice value here. Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Yankees send Masahiro Tanaka to the mound in this one, and he has been excellent this year. He hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in a single game this year. Tanaka is producing very high swinging strike rates which is a great sign. Occasionally, he has trouble with walking too many people, but in this one Angel Hernandez is behind the plate and he has a larger than average strike zone that will help a lot.

Kris Medlen has been awful this year. He isn't missing bats at all, and the Yankees offense got some momentum going last night as Beltran and McCann busted out of recent slumps. The Royals have a big problem when it comes to starting pitching, and I think that shows up again here. The Yankees should get Starlin Castro back in this one as well.

Take New York -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago White Sox start Miguel Gonzalez in this one. Gonzalez was released by the Orioles. Gonzalez is a guy who works hard on the mound, but his stuff just isn't that good. His stuff was never anything better than average, and now he is in decline. Chicago is having a nice season, but they have a weakness at the back of the rotation. Gonzalez is getting a shot, but I don't expect things to go well for him in a hitter-friendly park like this one.

Colby Lewis isn't good, and he definitely isn't good when pitching at home. In Lewis' last 35 starts at home he has a 5.54 ERA. I expect the White Sox to get to him, and then the Texas pen is one of the worst in the league right now as well.

Warm weather should help the ball carry well on Monday night in Texas.

The over is 3-0-1 in the White Sox last 4 road games. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 4-0-1 in Lewis' last 5 Monday starts. The over is 5-0-1 in Lewis' last 6 starts after Texas scored 5 runs or more in the previous game. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Houston Astros are a team that swings and misses a lot. Corey Kluber is a guy who misses a lot of bats. A free swinging team like Houston doesn't matchup very well against a guy like Kluber.

Kluber appears to have regained his top form as well. After a stretch of subpar performance for a while, Kluber has locked things in of late. He has thrown two great games against Detroit in the past few weeks. 

Mike Fiers isn't necessarily a guy I'm really high on, but he is better than he has pitched so far this year at least. Houston's bullpen is also significantly better than their numbers so far this year would indicate. 

The under is 21-5-2 in the last 28 meetings between these two teams. The under is 6-2-1 in Kluber's last 9 starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* The Miami Marlins are 23-3 in Jose Fernandez's last 26 home games. Fernandez has absolutely filthy stuff. While some people are down on him some after a somewhat slower start this year, I'm not among them. Fernandez should be just fine. He is especially dominant at home.In this one, Fernandez is up against a Milwaukee Brewers team with all sorts of injury problems.

Milwaukee's bullpen is the second worst in baseball (Reds the worst), and the Brewers are likely to give up quite a few runs in this game. Wily Peralta is coming off the paternity list, which is a difficult spot to start with (no sleep, etc), and Peralta has been terrible of late. In his last 8 games, he has allowed 5 runs or more in 6 of those games. If he does that again here, this play is a huge favorite to cash in big.

The huge starting pitching and bullpen advantage here makes this a strong play. Take Miami -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Boston Red Sox offense is the single best in the majors against right handed pitching. Sonny Gray is a good pitcher, but I'm not sure he is as good as his numbers from the past couple years suggest. Gray's peripherals suggest he got a bit lucky in those years, and now he goes to a hitter-friendly park against a red hot offense. Gray isn't in his best form right now.

Clay Buchholz is a tough one to figure out, because he can be so good or he can be terrible. Buchholz has consistently been terrible against Oakland though. He has an ERA of 6.81 in 8 career starts against the A's. 

The wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph here.

The over is 5-0 in Gray's last 5 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Buchholz's last 5 starts vs. Oakland. I'm taking the over. 

*4 Star Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox take center stage on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. Steven Wright has pitched well this year, but I don't think he's as good as his numbers this year would lead you to believe. Wright is nearly 32 years old and struggled to make it into the majors for a long time. He had mediocre Triple A numbers for many years and had a 4.04 ERA last year. His 1.67 ERA this year won't stay for too much longer.

Luis Severino was very fortunate last year. Severino had a 2.89 ERA but a FIP of 4.37. His FIP is 4.44 this year and his ERA is 6.31. Severino has potential, but right now he is being crushed by the long ball. 

Boston is first in the majors against right handed pitching, and the Yankees offense is better than they have shown so far this year.

I expect both teams to get on the board plenty of times in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels and the Tampa Bay Rays are two of the worst offenses in the majors against right handed pitching. The Angels are averaging only 3.43 runs per game against right handed pitching and a .237 batting average. The Rays have been even worse. Tampa Bay has a .211 batting average against righties and they are averaging only 3.08 runs per game.

Matt Andriese and Nick Tropeano are certainly not stars, but they don't need to be against these offenses. The Rays bullpen ranks as league average in ERA while the Angels rank as the fourth best bullpen in the majors by that measure. 

The under is 17-6-4 in the Rays last 27 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0-1 in Tropeano's last 5 starts. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Philadelphia Phillies have too big of a pitching mismatch in their favor for me to ignore this game. Aaron Nola is absolutely dealing right now, and he pitches deep into the game. Nola has an amazing curveball, and his control has improved this year.

Justin Nicolino has been much worse when pitching at home than on the road. Nicolino has never been very good in Triple A, so I see no real reason to expect him to be good at the major league level. Nicolino doesn't strike anyone out, and the Phillies should be able to square some up against him.

How good has Nola been on the road this year? Nola has a 0.64 ERA in four road starts this year. Nola has a great history in day games as well with a career 2.51 ERA in those situations. 

The Phillies have been bad against lefties this year, but they have a terrible .247 batting average on balls in play that suggests they will see improvement against lefties, and Nicolino isn't good. Take the Phillies. 

*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies have been piling up the runs lately, so we get a total that is a little too high here based on recency bias from the oddsmakers. San Francisco's Johnny Cueto should be a great fit for this park, and I expect him to pitch very well at home through the season. Cueto is at his best early in the year. 

Jon Gray is a guy who is going to be very good. Gray might struggle at times in Coors Field, but he has elite stuff and is a guy who can shut down a lot of lineups away from Coors Field.

The ball shouldn't be flying well here with a high dewpoint and a chance for a passing shower in San Francisco on Saturday afternoon. 

I see a close low scoring game all the way. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jeff Locke isn't a good pitcher, and he is a really bad pitcher on the road. Adam Wainwright was a great pitcher a few years ago, but he has a lot to prove about what kind of pitcher he is right now. Wainwright has an ERA above 6 on the year.

Locke has allowed Cardinals hitters to have a .381 OBP against him in his career. Wainwright has been amazing over the course of his career, but one team that has given him trouble is the Pirates. The Pirates have a .351 OBP against Wainwright. 

Dana DeMuth is a good over umpire in this one, and the weather is a big help too. The temperature is expected to reach 85 degrees and the wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph.

The over is 5-0-1 in Locke's last 6 starts during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0 in Locke's last 4 starts when his opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0-2 in the Cardinals last 8 following a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 Saturday games. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. A 24-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers meet early on Saturday afternoon. Detroit starts Mike Pelfrey, and he is pure fade material right now. The oddsmakers know it though, and have made the Rangers a pretty big favorite despite having the shaky A.J. Griffin on the mound here. 

Griffin has pitched well so far this year, but looking back at his history you'll see that he has been very up and down. This Detroit lineup is far better than they have looked of late, and I think they'll bounce out of this slump very soon.

Marquez is the umpire here and that's good for the over. The wind will be blowing out at 15 mph during the game. Take the over. 

*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees CASH* This rivalry got a little bit more heated after last night's very strange finish. Ron Kulpa had one of the biggest strike zones ever in the 9th inning last night and the Red Sox ended up losing by a run. They had that game stolen from them, and they'll be anxious to get back on track here.

David Price has pitched much better than his ERA would suggest this year. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which is on an ERA scale) is less than 3, so he is certainly due for some positive regression. The Yankees aren't good against lefties, and Price is one of the best.

Nate Eovaldi has struggled mightily against Boston in the past, and Boston is the best team in the majors against right-handed pitching so far this year. 

Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 following a win. They are 0-4 in Eovaldi's last 4 against the AL East. A 14-1 angle. Take Boston. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cincinnati Reds have the worst bullpen in the majors. In fact, they have the worst bullpen the major leagues have seen in many years. Cincinnati's bullpen has allowed at least one run in 23 straight games. That's truly mind boggling. Milwaukee's bullpen is the second worst pen in my bullpen rankings. If both bullpens end up in the game for a while, that's great for over bettors.

Tyler Cravy starts for Milwaukee and he had a 5.70 ERA last year in the majors. He has only been mediocre in Triple A, and I see no reason to believe he'll be a good big leaguer anytime soon. Tim Adleman starts for Cincinnati. He only made 3 starts in Triple A before being moved up to the majors. He has decent stuff, but I don't expect him to last late into the game.

The over is 12-1 in the Brewers last 13 following a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Cincinnati. A 20-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* Marcus Stroman is a quality pitcher, but the oddsmakers are underrating Kenta Maeda in this one. Maeda has looked excellent in his first few starts in the majors.

While Toronto smashed the ball around the yard last night, the Blue Jays offense has been very inconsistent so far this year. Los Angeles has the potential to score in bunches with a strong middle of the order as well. 

The Dodgers have been good on the road this year, and Toronto hasn't been doing anything to deserve this kind of price. The value side is Los Angeles. Take the Dodgers here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Two young starters in this one, and I think we see plenty of runs. Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best over umpires in all of baseball. Neither pitcher will be getting the corners in this one.

The Red Sox offense is tremendous against right handed pitchers. They are scoring 6 runs per game against right handed starters on average so far this year. The White Sox will be starting Erik Johnson here, and I don't believe he has staying power in the big leagues. Johnson doesn't have that pitch to put away the opposition.

Henry Owens has more potential, but he walks too many guys for my liking, and Emmel will make that difficult on him.

The over is 6-0 in Owens' last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 during game 3 of a series. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 7-0 in Johnson's last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The over is 8-0-1 in Johnson's last 9 when his opponent scores 5 or more in their previous game. The over is 2-0-2 in Johnson's last 4 home starts. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Chicago White Sox are better than they were last year, but they aren't as good as their record would indicate. Chicago has gotten a lot of late-game heroics to pull out close wins this year, and that kind of thing will even out over time.

The Boston Red Sox absolutely smash right handed pitching, and Erik Johnson is unlikely to be able to quiet this team. Johnson doesn't have high-end stuff, and he hasn't even been that good in Triple A. 

Henry Owens has been inconsistent in his young career, but he has very good stuff. Owens works against a White Sox lineup that ranks 23rd in wOBA against lefties. 

Take Boston here. 

*4 Star MLB BEST Bet* It's Chase Anderson vs. Alfredo Simon here and that should mean a lot of runs here. That's not the only reason to like the over though, since these are the two worst bullpens in the majors as well.

Chase Anderson has potential, but in his last couple starts he has been absolutely rocked, and in recent quotes he sounds like he has lost some confidence. 

Alfredo Simon has a 13.50 ERA on the year, and he looks like a guy who has lost his stuff in a big way in the past year or so. He is almost 35 years old, and his velocity isn't very impressive.

Both starters have meltdown potential like crazy, and these bullpens are capable of giving up runs in a hurry.

The over is 11-1 in the Brewers last 12 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings at Cincinnati between these two. A 22-2 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Adam Conley threw a no hitter through 7 and 2/3 innings in his last game. He threw more pitches in that game than he has thrown in any other game in his career. Conley is improving and I like his potential, but I see this as a tough spot for him. Most pitchers have a "letdown" spot after that kind of performance, and a youngster coming off a big workload is a prime candidate for that.

Robbie Ray is a solid, but unspectacular lefty for Arizona. Miami smashes left-handed pitching, as does Arizona. These two teams are very comfortable against the lefties, and that's a big reason for this play.

The weather should be nice enough for the roof to be open and the wind will be blowing out here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie Smasher* The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds battle tonight in Cincinnati. Alfredo Simon gets the ball for the Reds, and this play is definitely a fade on Simon. Simon turns 35 years old this week, and his once questionable stuff has now become downright bad. He has a 13.50 ERA and it isn't because of bad luck. Simon's peripherals are terrible, and there are no signs that he'll get better soon. The Reds wouldn't have him in the rotation if they had any other choice, but everyone else is hurt right now.

Milwaukee's Chase Anderson has been hit hard lately, but Anderson does have a pretty good ceiling. Milwaukee's bullpen isn't good, but it's definitely better than the Reds. Cincinnati's bullpen is the worst in the majors by a wide margin.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Detroit Tigers have lost all five games so far this year against their AL Central foes from Cleveland. They were swept at home by Cleveland and now they have lost the first two in Cleveland. I'm not big on the "teams avoiding a sweep theory" normally, but I do believe we'll get a good effort from Detroit here.

More importantly though, Trevor Bauer has a horrible history against the Tigers. Bauer also has zero confidence right now, and I think this is a terrible matchup for him. In his career against Detroit Bauer has an awful 6.81 ERA. When pitching at home against Detroit, that balloons to slightly over 8. 

Michael Fulmer has a high upside and he faces a Cleveland team that will be without Yan Gomes tonight. Gimenez is starting in place of Gomes, and that is definitely a downgrade. 

At this plus money price, I'm on Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jaime Garcia is great at home. He is also much better during the day. Garcia has a 2.98 career ERA in day games. He has a 2.69 ERA in games at home. Jerad Eickhoff had a 6.33 ERA in four career day games started, and his road ERA is 4.35.

The Cardinals are tied with the Red Sox for the best wOBA in the majors against right handed pitching. Eickhoff will likely struggle to shut down this lineup. Even more important may be the fact that this Phillies bullpen is awful, and Eickhoff doesn't pitch deep into games very often.

The Cardinals are probably better than their record, and while the Phillies are improved I don't believe they are this good. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Los Angeles Dodgers haven't had the best start to the season, but they are definitely still a good team. The Dodgers crushed left-handed pitching last year, but they have started the year slowly against lefties in 2016. A big part of that is thanks to same bad batted ball luck. The Dodgers have the 5th lowest batting average on balls in play against lefties of any team in the majors. That should normalize over time.

Tampa Bay is unquestionably better against lefties than they are against righties, but this Rays offense isn't very good. I like Drew Smyly, but I never expected to see the Rays at this sort of a price against the Dodgers. Alex Wood isn't a great pitcher, but he isn't bad either. The Dodgers bullpen is at least equal to the Rays pen.

This is more of a price play than anything else. This line suggests the Dodgers would only win 40% or less of the time in this matchup. That's too low. Take Los Angeles.

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers lineup is very good, and it would be tough to find a better first five in any other batting order in the majors. Cleveland's offense is just slightly better than the league average against right-handed pitching. They are certainly capable of scoring several against a subpar pitcher.

Anibal Sanchez has all sorts of mechanical problems right now, and his confidence is gone. The Indians lit him up a couple weeks ago, and I don't see any reason to believe he'll quiet them down in this game. 

Corey Kluber is a great pitcher, but the Tigers have been very tough on him throughout his career. Detroit hitters collectively have an impressive .318 average against Kluber. 

The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 following a loss. The over is 6-0-1 in Sanchez's last 7 Wednesday starts. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team that doesn't have a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 starts vs. the Tigers. The over is 4-0 in home plate umpire Gabe Morales' last 4 games involving the Tigers and 4-0 in his last 4 games involving the Indians. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland A's and the Seattle Mariners finish their three game series on Wednesday afternoon. This is a game I was watching for the under, and when it went to 7.5 that was enough for me to pull the trigger.

Sean Manaea is Oakland's top pitching prospect. After a shaky first start, I like his chances of pitching well in this second start of his career. Seattle is a little bit below league average against lefties.

The Oakland offense is terrible, and Felix Hernandez has tremendous numbers against this team. Collectively, their OBP against Felix is only .261. 

Both bullpens rank in the top ten in the majors and this is a get away day game with an under umpire in Adam Hamari. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Sonny Gray and the Oakland A's host Hisashi Iwakuma and the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday. Both of these guys are coming off rough starts, and that's what gives us value on the under in this one. 

There's nothing about the Oakland lineup that scares anyone. Oakland may well have the worst lineup in the American League. Seattle's offense is improved, but they are about league average on offense still.

Both lineups have an on base percentage of less than .300 against the opposing pitcher in this one. The Mariners have a .265 OBP against Gray and the A's have a .287 OBP against Iwakuma.

Dan Bellino is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* I still believe Patrick Corbin is a good big league pitcher. Corbin has had some difficult starts of late, but Corbin should be rounding into form after a long recovery from injury. Corbin has very good stuff, and if he can avoid the big innings I see him having a good season this year.

There's nothing to suggest that Justin Nicolino will be a good big league pitcher, at least not yet. He shut down the Dodgers last game when the Dodgers offense was in a tailspin, and now the books are giving him and the Marlins a bunch of respect. Nicolino's minor league stats aren't very impressive, and he'll be up against an Arizona team that crushes left handed pitching.

Arizona is 6-1 in Corbin's last 7 road starts. They are 4-0 in their last 4 in Miami. Take Arizona. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* This total is a full run too low. To start with, we have Chad Fairchild as the umpire here, and he ranks in my database in the top 25 umpires as far as fewest strikes called in the past two years, so that is helpful to the over.

Jeff Samardzija has been making too many mistake pitches inside the strike zone so far this year. The Reds offense is not spectacular, but they do still have some offensive talent. Joey Votto had a big hit last night, and there is no way he is going to continue to slump the way he has in the first month of the season. Cincinnati should get scoring chances.

San Francisco's offense has been on fire of late. Only twice in their last ten games have they scored less than 4 runs. The Giants have scored 7 runs or more in four of those last ten games. This Giants offense is very good, especially when they are on the road. They are playing in a ballpark that is much more hitter-friendly than their home park here.

Cincinnati's bullpen is the worst bullpen I've seen in a very long time. This Reds bullpen is just awful. The numbers they are putting up across the board are worst in the majors by a mile. Moscot isn't anything special as the starter, and once he goes out of the game, things look even worse for Cincinnati.

The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 road games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 10-1 in their last 11 overall. The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games. The over is 4-0-2 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Cincinnati. The over is 5-0 in Fairchild's last 5 games behind home plate. A 38-1 angle. Take the over big. TOP Total of the Week. 

*3 Star MLB Monday MONEY* The San Diego Padres offense has hit left handed pitching well this year, but they rank dead last in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rockies lineup is good, but they aren't great away from home. 

Jon Gray is an up and coming star. While he needs to improve his command, Gray has all the tools to be a very good pitcher for this Rockies team. He faces the weakest offense he'll face all year.

James Shields is a quality pitcher who eats up a lot of innings and does a good job keeping his team in the game.

This one is played in San Diego, which is one of the best pitcher parks in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Kansas City Royals offense is in a deep slump right now, and I don't like their chances of busting out of it against Taijuan Walker.

Walker is a breakout candidate this year, and he has pitched very well so far this season. Walker has been ability to limit the amount of free passes this year. He has better command of his strikeout pitches now than he has had at any other point in his career.

Ian Kennedy is off to a solid start to the year, and I think he can have a quality year for the Royals this year. The Seattle offense is improved, but they still aren't great.

These are two of the top five bullpens in my rankings, so I expect good work in the late innings. 

The under is 8-0 in the Royals last 8 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 2-0-2 in Kennedy's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Walker's last 4 starts. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cardinals and Nationals meet in what should be a low scoring game on Sunday afternoon. Carlos Martinez has turned into a nice starting pitcher, and while Max Scherzer hasn't been at his best recently, it is just a matter of time before he turns things around.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has the single highest strike percentage called in the majors in the past 7 years. Obviously, that's very helpful to the under. Both Scherzer and Martinez are guys who can punch out a lot of batters, and Eddings has a very high strikeout to walk ratio.

Look for a pitcher's duel here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* I rate the Milwaukee Brewers as the second worst bullpen in the majors according to my numbers. Miami's bullpen ranks right in the middle of the pack. Tom Koehler is much worse on the road than at home. Wily Peralta has absolutely no confidence in himself right now, and he has been getting crushed by just about everyone this year. 

This is a game where I think big innings are likely on each side. The early sharp money has sided with the over, and I agree with that. I think we'll see plenty of runs. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels offense has been dreadful against right handed pitching this year. The Angels have been pretty good against lefties. Derek Holland has really struggled with this Angels team in his career. 

Matt Shoemaker isn't fooling anyone this year. He seems to be having problems with his mechanics, and that is never a good thing. Shoemaker relies heavily on deception, and right now that isn't working.

These two bullpens are really bad. A lot of scoring late in this one should come as no surprise. 

The over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two in Texas. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Baltimore Orioles send Kevin Gausman to the mound here, and I'm very high on Gausman. He has fantastic stuff, and he is a breakout candidate. I expect him to be the Orioles best starting pitcher very soon (if not this year). Gausman has great movement on his pitches, and his slurve is really impressive. 

Mat Latos simply isn't as good as he has pitched so far this year. It's also important to remember that he hasn't faced a good offense this year. The Orioles offense is excellent. 

These two bullpens are both great, but the Orioles have the better pitcher and the much better offense. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* Chris Archer is a better pitcher than he has shown to this point in the season. Archer has a long history of being excellent against this Toronto lineup. No doubt the Blue Jays have a strong offense, but Archer has been great against them. In fact, in 188 at bats, the Blue Jays lineup has a .186 average against him. 

J.A. Happ has an ERA above 5 at Tampa Bay, and the Rays are sneaky good against lefties. While the Rays offense as a whole is weak, they have several guys who hit lefties very well. 

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Friday MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles might be better than most expected this year, but they still aren't as good as their early season record would indicate. The Orioles have a great bullpen and a very good offense, but their starting rotation is a big problem. 

The Chicago White Sox are definitely a much improved team this year thanks to some offseason acquisitions. Chicago has a shutdown bullpen and an improved defense. The White Sox offense struggled early in the year, but they have started to swing the bat better of late.

Chicago has a big starting pitching edge here. Carlos Rodon is going to be a star in this league. He is beginning to mature, and this is a guy who has shutdown stuff. His slider is one of the best pitches in baseball. 

Baltimore's Mike Wright is a guy I'm low on. Wright hasn't done anything in the majors to suggest he can consistently get major league lineups out. Wright had an ERA above 6 last year, and he once again has an ERA above 6 this year. 

Rodon has a fantastic 2.82 career ERA on the road in his young career. The Orioles are better against right handed pitching than they are against lefties. 

Baltimore is 2-7 in Wright's last 9 starts. They are 1-5 in his last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The White Sox are 7-3 in Rodon's last 10 road starts. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chase Field roof will be open again on Thursday night, and I'll once again be on the over when the Cardinals take on the Diamondbacks. I've gotten the win from the last two days with the over, and the over also cashed in game one of this series when I didn't have a play on the game. I believe this fourth game of the series will also go over the posted total.

Chase Field is a totally different park with the roof open. The ball flies extremely well with the open roof. Those long fly ball outs become home runs.

Michael Wacha is a good pitcher, but he is much better when pitching at home than on the road. Rubby De La Rosa is extremely inconsistent, and I don't think he'll put a second straight strong start together. If you look at his career numbers, the Cardinals have crushed him in the past.

The over is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 4-0 in Wacha's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Diamondbacks last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. The over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 games between these teams. A 28-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Los Angeles Angels start Nick Tropeano here. Tropeano has a great ERA so far this year, but I'm skeptical of his ability to keep up his current level. Tropeano doesn't have high end stuff, and he has been inconsistent in the past. He has also faced Oakland, Minnesota, and Seattle in his first three starts. The Royals will be the best offense he has gone against yet. 

Chris Young is almost 37 years old and his stuff is declining. Young has done a nice job for the Royals, but I think his good run is coming to an end. Young gives up a bunch of fly balls, and the Angels certainly have some power hitters in their lineup. 

Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is an over umpire who won't give these guys the corners. 

With two starting pitchers with a lot of question marks, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals have gone over the posted total in the first two games in this series, and I think this one will go over as well. Chase Field's roof is slated to be open for this one, and that's a huge deal. The ball flies extremely well with the roof open, and I believe the roof being open is worth almost a full run to the total.

Adam Wainwright and Patrick Corbin are both good pitchers, but both are trying to recover from major injuries. Both of these guys have been less than stellar so far this year. As they try to work out the kinks, it's been apparent that they won't be quite as good as they were in the past. Wainwright in particular has dropped off quite a bit.

With the roof open, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Chicago White Sox are playing some great baseball right now. Chicago is going for the sweep in this series, and that is part of the reason why the price here is so great. A lot of people subscribe to the theory that you should never take a team who is going for a sweep on the road. While I'm more cautious to do it, when the price is right, I'm not going to let that keep me off the game altogether.

Toronto is a good team, but I'm not sure they are great. They have several question marks. Chicago is a much improved team with a better lineup and a much better bullpen than they have had in recent years. 

Jose Quintana starts for the White Sox here, and he is one of the most underrated lefties in baseball. Quintana has a sparkling 1.88 ERA in seven career starts against Toronto. Marco Estrada is nothing better than a mediocre pitcher, and this price is too high. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Houston Astros have been in a slump of late. They have lost two tough games in a row. Here, they turn to their stopper Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel is coming off an uncharacteristically bad performance in Texas, but lots of pitchers have had ugly performances in Texas and Keuchel has pitched very well against the Mariners in the past.

Seattle is 0-5 in their last 5 home games against left handed pitching. The Mariners have a lot of relievers banged up right now. Nate Karns doesn't go deep into games often. Karns walks way too many batters, and Keuchel has very good control. 

The Astros are 35-17 in Keuchel's last 52 starts. Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a great park for hitters with the roof open. Long-term data suggests the roof being open is worth at least one full run to the total in Arizona. 

Shelby Miller has been a mess this year. He's walking all kinds of batters, and the Cardinals have plenty of patient hitters. Arizona's offense is very capable of scoring runs at home, especially with the roof open and the ball flying well. 

The Cardinals have given Carlos Martinez great run support, and Miller is putting so many people on right now. 

For the roof being open, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays host the Baltimore Orioles for a second straight night. Baltimore was shut out by the Rays on Monday night. While this Orioles offense is very good, I think they could struggle again here against Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi has excellent stuff and I expect a breakout season from him this year. Odorizzi has great splits at home in his career.

Ubaldo Jimenez can sometimes struggle with control, but he'll get a lot of help here from Ron Kulpa being the home plate umpire. Kulpa has the single best under record in baseball in the past ten years. Kulpa is a strike calling machine, and Jimenez and Odorizzi will both be getting the corners in this one.

Baltimore's bullpen is great and their defense is excellent as well. Tampa Bay is one of the worst offense in the league against right handed pitching. 

The under is 7-0-1 in the Orioles last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 after giving up 2 runs or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL East. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Jimenez's last 4 road starts. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL East. 

The under is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in the Rays last 5 Tuesday games. The under is 3-0-1 in Odorizzi's last 4 on turf. The under is 2-0-2 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 51-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Rich Hill has been having a nice year, but I don't expect him to quiet this Detroit lineup. The Tigers offense is excellent. They slumped for the 3 game series against Cleveland, but they were back in a big way last night. Detroit is going to score a lot of runs this year.

The Oakland offense isn't very good, but Mike Pelfrey has a way of making bad offenses look good. Quite frankly, Pelfrey is a total gas can right now. Pelfrey has been stranding runners at an epic rate and his performances have been much worse than his pitching lines would indicate. Pelfrey is going to get crushed soon. You just can't count on leaving the bases loaded constantly as he has done this year.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* Chris Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball. While I certainly know that Toronto can crush left-handed pitching, Sale is far from an average lefty. Sale throws his best early in the season, and he is in great form right now. 

R.A. Dickey pitches for Toronto, and he's been struggling this year. The White Sox lineup slumped early in the year, but they have heated up in the past few days. Chicago has an advantage in the bullpen and the White Sox are a much improved team this year. 

I expected this price to be -140 or so. At this price, I have to take Chicago with Sale on the mound. Take Chicago. 

*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* The Seattle Mariners are in a really good spot here. Seattle played an afternoon game in Los Angeles yesterday and got home early. Seattle's opponent here is Houston, and the Astros had to fly to Seattle very late last night.

Houston's game at home against Boston on Sunday Night Baseball didn't end until after 1 am eastern. The Astros flew in the middle of the night and the trip to Seattle is about as far as any trip they could get. If that isn't enough, factor in that Houston is coming off a very difficult loss where they had chances to win in extra innings and couldn't quite pull it off.

Doug Fister's stuff is declining rapidly, while Taijuan Walker is starting to command his pitches better. Walker has a high upside, and I think he could breakout this season.

Houston is 16-37 in their last 53 road games. Seattle is 16-5 in Walker's last 21 starts. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The New York Mets send Noah Syndergaard to the hill in this one. Syndergaard has the best stuff of anyone in this Mets rotation, and that's saying a lot since the Mets also have Harvey and Degrom. Syndergaard has an ERA of less than 1 this year, and he faces a Reds lineup that looked hapless against him last year.

Raisel Iglesias is a good young pitcher for the Reds, but he doesn't go all that deep into the game. The Reds bullpen is a major weakness for this team, and the Mets extending a lead in the 7th and 8th innings wouldn't surprise me one bit. 

Cincinnati overachieved early in the year, but they are going to be a bad team this year. The Mets underachieved, and I think they are going to go on a really nice run. Take New York -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Detroit Tigers were just swept at home by the Cleveland Indians. The Indians are a quality team, and Detroit's offense scored only 5 runs in those games. Don't expect the Tigers offense to stay cold for long though. This Tigers offense is loaded with stars and they aren't going to be kept quiet in the long run. A middle of the order with Upton, Cabrera and Martinez is tremendous.

Kendall Graveman has been very inconsistent in his time in the majors. Jordan Zimmermann is about as consistent as any starter in the big leagues. Zimmermann is usually good for 6 or 7 strong innings. The Oakland offense is extremely weak.

This line dropped to the point where it was a must play, especially with the Tigers looking to stop the bleeding against a subpar team. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Eickhoff and Peralta start for the Phillies and Brewers here. Eickhoff has slightly deceptive stuff, but he should regress to the mean after an excellent start. The Brewers still have several good bats in their lineup.

Wily Peralta is a mess right now. Peralta has spoken recently about his loss of confidence, and he is putting people on base at an amazingly high rate. 

I'm not high on either starter, and then the bullpens are just awful. These are two of the five worst bullpens in baseball. 

Jim Wolf is the umpire here and he rates an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone. 

The over is 7-1 in Peralta's last 8 starts. The over is 9-2-2 in Wolf's last 13 behind home plate. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The Los Angeles Angels offense is very weak outside of Mike Trout. Trout is obviously a stud, but there is very little help for him in this lineup. Seattle has gotten a little better on offense this year, but they still have holes in their lineup. 

Wade Miley has been hit hard this year, but he has a long history that suggests he is better than his numbers this year appear. Matt Shoemaker is much better at home.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and there isn't a better under umpire in the game than him. Miller has a massive strike zone and he loves to ring batters up.

A very interesting note here: both of these pitchers have much better splits in day games in their career vs. night games. Wade Miley has a 3.41 ERA in day games (4.27 at night). Matt Shoemaker has a 2.72 ERA in day games (3.94 at night). 

The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.3 or higher. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. 

The under is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of the series. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 40-0 angle. 

Take the under big. TOP Play of the Week. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Eickhoff and Peralta start for the Phillies and Brewers here. Eickhoff has slightly deceptive stuff, but he should regress to the mean after an excellent start. The Brewers still have several good bats in their lineup.

Wily Peralta is a mess right now. Peralta has spoken recently about his loss of confidence, and he is putting people on base at an amazingly high rate. 

I'm not high on either starter, and then the bullpens are just awful. These are two of the five worst bullpens in baseball. 

Jim Wolf is the umpire here and he rates an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone. 

The over is 7-1 in Peralta's last 8 starts. The over is 9-2-2 in Wolf's last 13 behind home plate. Take the over. 

*4 Star Saturday's MLB BEST Bet* Jose Fernandez is absolutely one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. His upside is ridiculously high. Fernandez has shut down stuff, and the Giants offense has been scuffling so far this year, especially on their home field. 

Jake Peavy is a medicore or slightly worse starter at this stage in his career. If Fernandez has his best stuff working in this game, Peavy won't be able to keep up. The Marlins offense has underachieved a bit so far this year, and I see this as an opportunity for them.

This price really surprised me. I expected to see Miami -130 or slightly more, so this is a much better value than I expected. 

Miami is 8-0 in Fernandez's last 8 Saturday starts. They are 10-1 in his last 11 starts vs. the NL West. San Francisco is 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win. They are also 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. Take Miami. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie Smasher* The Los Angeles Angels aren't as good as they have been in recent years. Mike Trout is excellent, but the lineup around him isn't good. The Mariners are a team on the rise. Seattle also has King Felix on the hill for this one. While this wasn't initially a game I expected to pick, I also didn't think I'd be able to get +100 on Felix Hernandez here. Hector Santiago has had a lot of good luck in the past year, and his command is poor. The Mariners are 9-3 in Felix Hernandez's last 12 starts vs. the Angels. Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Chase Field roof will be open for this game, and that's very important. Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open because of the dry heat. The ball flies extremely well in these conditions.

Juan Nicasio takes on Rubby De La Rosa here. Nicasio had a great spring, but he has been shaky in his last couple games, and this is his toughest spot of the year thus far.

De La Rosa has been much worse when pitching at Arizona than anywhere else. I believe that is because he really struggles when the roof is open at Chase Field. De La Rosa has a very high 5.58 ERA at Chase Field in his career. 

The over is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a right handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0-1 in De La Rosa's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs. the NL Central. A 37-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers have one of the best lineups in the American League. Cleveland has an improved lineup this year, and they are facing a pitcher who is clearly in decline in Anibal Sanchez.

Corey Kluber has some troubling signs in his peripherals. I still believe Kluber is a good pitcher, but he's definitely not at the level he was a couple years ago. It's important to note though that even when Kluber was pitching at his best, Detroit was a team that gave him a lot more trouble than the average team. Kluber has a 4.72 ERA in his career against Detroit.

Anibal Sanchez is definitely not the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Sanchez doesn't have the same strike out pitches and his ERA and other indicators have dropped off severely in the last two years. 

We have a good over umpire here in Adrian Johnson. 

The over is 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 games involving the Indians. The over is 6-0 in Sanchez's last 6 home starts. The over is 5-1 in Kluber's last 6 starts vs. the Tigers. A 17-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The St. Louis Cardinals aren't quite as good as they have been in recent years, but they are still a quality team. San Diego had a nice series against Pittsburgh, but that was primarily because of good pitching matchups. This Padres offense has been awful against right handed pitching so far this year. 

Adam Wainwright has been inconsistent this year so far, but he has an ERA of less than 2 in his career against San Diego. This park should be good to him. Andrew Cashner is walking too many guys and is relying way too much on his fastball for me to be interested in backing him. 

The Cardinals take game one in this series.

Take St. Louis. 

*4 Star Friday's BEST Bet* The Houston Astros are off to a slow start, but I do still believe this is a good team. Houston has a lot of youngsters who are continually getting better. This is a farm system that really stockpiled talent and did the rebuild the right way.

Boston is coming off a demoralizing loss to Tampa Bay yesterday. They put up 8 runs with David Price pitching and lost 12-8 thanks to some strange decisions by John Farrell late in the game with the bullpen usage. 

Collin McHugh is a good pitcher who does a nice job keeping the ball down. Steven Wright isn't a good pitcher. He walks too many guys and baserunners can have a field day against him. The Astros have several speedsters who could take advantage.

The early sharp money is on the Astros, and I definitely agree with that opinion. 

Boston is 1-5 in Wright's last 6 road starts. Houston is 19-7 in McHugh's last 26 home starts. Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Yankees have been in a major slump of late, but this team is better than they are playing right now. The Yankees have what I believe is the best bullpen in baseball, and that is important in a game like this. I'm not terribly high on Matt Moore or C.C. Sabathia. The Rays bullpen is subpar. The Yankees bullpen is awesome. 

The weather may be a factor here too. Rain is expected to pass through New York during the game at some point, which could mean we see the bullpens longer than expected. That's a good thing for the home team. 

At this price, I'm on New York. Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Thursday's MLB BEST Bet* The Detroit Tigers don't have great hitters at the bottom of the order, but from one through five in the order no one is better in all of baseball. Kansas City has a group of very professional hitters who make you work and don't beat themselves.

Mike Pelfrey isn't a good pitcher at all, and I'll be very surprised if he can silence the KC bats like Jordan Zimmermann did last night. Edinson Volquez is better, but I still don't see him as a top flight starter.

The career numbers are staggering when it comes to the pitchers vs. the opposition here. The Tigers have a great .391 OBP against Volquez. The Royals have an amazing .427 OBP against Pelfrey.

The over is 40-18-4 in Detroit's last 62 road games. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 between these two teams. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks meet in a get away game early Thursday afternoon. Johnny Cueto and Shelby Miller are on the mound in this one.

Shelby Miller is off to a bad start this year, but I do believe Miller is a much better pitcher than he has shown so far this year. Miller has a spectacular 2.66 ERA in day games (3.60 at night).

Johnny Cueto has a sparkling 2.58 ERA in day games in his career (3.74 at night). Cueto's best month of the year is April as well.

We are likely to see some regulars sitting out with this being a get away day game. This is a big pitcher's park, and both teams have solid defenses. 

The under is 15-3 in the last 18 meetings between these two. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Washington Nationals are a much improved team this year. Washington had all kinds of talent and a terrible manager and bad team chemistry last year. Dusty Baker isn't a good manager when it comes to in-game decisions, but the guys like to play hard for him and this Washington team is looking good right now.

Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Scherzer gets a lot of strikeouts, and this Miami Marlins team is full of free swingers. This is a day game and Scherzer's day game ERA is nearly 3 tenths of a run lower than his night game ERA in his career. Miami hitters have only a .280 OBP against Scherzer.

Tom Koehler has a career 4.46 ERA in day games, which is nearly half a run worse than his 3.99 ERA at night. Bryce Harper crushes Koehler, and Harper is locked in right now. Washington is the much better team.

Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller has been one of the very best under umpires in the game for many years in a row. He loves to punch out guys, and he should get plenty of chances in this game. 

Zack Greinke is off to a slow start, but he will pitch well again this year. Greinke has a stellar 1.96 ERA in more than 36 innings with Miller behind home plate. Madison Bumgarner has a tremendous 1.80 ERA in his 20 innings with Miller behind the dish.

Greinke has a 1.78 ERA pitching at San Francisco. Bumgarner has a 2.54 ERA against Arizona in more than 100 innings. 

The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Jeff Locke in this one, and Locke has been terrible away from home in his career. Locke has a 4.37 ERA on the road in his career and that number rises to 5.45 in his last 15 road starts. 

Drew Pomeranz starts for the Padres here, and I'm high on him this year. Pomeranz has developed a new pitch and that seems to be making a big difference for him. This is a guy who all the scouts loved a few years ago, it seems like he just bloomed late. 

The Padres have a .260 OBP against righties, but they have a .320 OBP against lefties, so I think they can get to Locke. The Pirates bullpen is way down this year as well, and the Padres pen is improved. Take San Diego. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Houston Astros aren't as bad as their record would indicate, but Cole Hamels at this price is worth a play. Doug Fister is in decline, and his velocity continues to drop. Fister doesn't have the strikeout pitch needed to put guys away.

The Texas lineup can put up runs at home in bunches. Cole Hamels has pitched very well at home, and the Astros lineup has a low career OBP of .296 against Hamels.

The market has moved this one down to territory where the Rangers are a good value. Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Early Play* The Chicago White Sox start Chris Sale in this one. Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has been amazing so far this year, and in his career, April and May are his best months. Sale has tremendous numbers against the Angels, and this Angels team is much weaker than they have been in the past.

Chicago has a big bullpen advantage in this one, and they have the better lineup as well. Another key advantage that is often overlooked is the White Sox have the better defense. 

This is a little more than I usually lay on the moneyline, but I think it is justified with Sale on the mound. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he has traditionally been one of the very best over umpires in the business. Both Carlos Martinez and Kyle Hendricks have struggled against the opposing lineup in this one. 

Chicago's offense is one of the best in baseball. It's a deep lineup, and one that will make pitchers work very hard this year. St. Louis' offense isn't up to that same level, but they are certainly better than the average lineup.

The posted total here is extremely low. While get away day games can be good for the under, that hasn't been the case in Holbrook's games. The over is 39-13-3 in Holbrook's last 55 Wednesday games behind the plate. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres offense might be the worst in all of baseball. This is a terrible lineup in every way. They have no stars, and they have very little depth. They'll be up against a good young pitcher in Patrick Corbin. I think Corbin will have a very nice season this year. 

The Arizona lineup isn't very good outside of Paul Goldschmitt either. They have a bad bottom of the order.

These teams played a 14 inning game on Saturday night. I think that means both Corbin and Robbie Erlin will pitch deep into the game to save the bullpen. Since I like both of these lefties pretty well that's a good thing. 

Doug Eddings is a great under umpire, and he's behind the dish here. Eddings has the biggest strike zone of any umpire in the majors. The under is a whopping 37-16-5 in Eddings last 58 Sunday games behind home plate. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cincinnati Reds aren't a good team. Over the course of the season, I think that will become abundantly clear. This is coming from a guy who likes to root for the Reds. They have been my favorite team since I was very young, but I have to call it like I see it. Cincinnati has some decent young pitching, but the bullpen is terrible and the lineup is subpar. 

We faded the Reds with the Cardinals -1.5 on Friday and they were blown away in that game. The Reds bounced back and won Saturday which sets up another fade spot on Sunday. Michael Wacha has a sparkling 1.87 ERA in 10 appearances against the Reds. Jon Moscot is a guy with a limited upside and questionable command. He's making his first start after a significant injury as well. Mismatch all the way here.

The Reds are 5-22 in their last 27 Sunday games. They are 22-52 in their last 74 in St. Louis. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha's last 5 starts vs. the Reds. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Colby Lewis at home is always worth at least an over lean. Lewis has been outright awful at home in the last few years. He routinely has an ERA north of 5 here. He'll be facing an excellent Orioles offense in this game as well. Baltimore is going to put up a lot of runs this year.

Yovani Gallardo is a veteran who isn't a bad pitcher, but he also isn't dominant in any way. The Texas lineup can put up runs especially when playing at home. The middle of this order is a good one. 

Pat Hoberg is behind the plate and he has a small strike zone, so he'll pinch the zone on both pitchers. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* The Minnesota Twins and the Los Angeles Angels meet Saturday afternoon in Minnesota. The Twins got their first win of the season last night in a 5-4 contest. 

Jered Weaver starts for the Angels and in the past that was always a good thing. Weaver is no longer the same pitcher though. Weaver throws 80 mph fastballs and has some terrible peripheral numbers. In 2014, Weaver had a 4.70 ERA on the road. Last year, Weaver had a 6.01 ERA on the road. 

Ricky Nolasco isn't a particularly good pitcher, and he's been particularly bad when pitching at Target Field. Nolasco has a 4.89 ERA at Target Field in his career. Nolasco has been hit hard by the Angels also. This Angels lineup has a tremendous .356 average against Nolasco all time.

John Tumpane is the umpire here and he's a slight over umpire which helps the cause as well.

The over is 6-1 in Weaver's last 7 starts vs. Minnesota. The over is 20-6-1 in the last 27 meetings between these two in Minnesota. Take the over big. TOP RATED Play

*3 Star MLB Giants/Dodgers Friday Night CASH* It's Madison Bumgarner vs. Clayton Kershaw once again. We've been treated to this matchup a lot here early in the season. Bumgarner and Kershaw bring out the best in each other, and that's why this posted total is so low. While I'm not usually keen on betting under this low of a number, I still think it's a good value.

Bumgarner has an amazing 2.12 career ERA at Dodger Stadium. Kershaw has a career 1.57 ERA against the Giants. He has never had a yearly ERA higher than 2.25 against San Francisco. The Giants hitters have a miserable .199 on base percentage against Kershaw.

Both of these guys are great at pitching deep into the game, and this should be a great low scoring game.

The under is a whopping 21-5-2 in Kershaw's last 28 starts vs. the Giants. The under is 12-3-1 in MadBum's last 16 starts vs. the Dodgers and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts against the Dodgers. Take the under.